Tag Archives: ChatGPT

December 13, 2025 · 21:10

Orchestration

That was on my mind when I was considering a few settings. Orchestration by the media no less. To get the full view to this, I need to explain a few items. The media has NO responsibility to print (or news talk) on any given subject. And there is something called Defamation by omission. 

While defamation typically involves publishing a false statement that harms a reputation, an omission of facts can potentially give rise to liability if what is published is rendered misleading or defamatory as a result. The test is whether the omission gives a defamatory meaning to the published material that would not otherwise be present.

So it does exist, but the setting is extremely difficult to prove. There are more provisions, but they will not be applicable to this setting. As such I leave them by themselves. So two weeks ago we got all that Code Red settings in regards to OpenAI, they were not giving us that they would have to WOW the audience, or was that me saying that? So a few days ago ChatGPT released 5.2 and as far as I can tell there are several dozens of articles, but only Wired gives us some of the goods

With: “OpenAI has introduced GPT-5.2, its smartest artificial intelligence model yet, with performance gains across writing, coding, and reasoning benchmarks. The launch comes just days after CEO Sam Altman internally declared a “code red,” a company-wide push to improve ChatGPT amid intense competition from rivals. “We announced this code red to really signal to the company that we want to marshal resources in one particular area, and that’s a way to really define priorities,” said OpenAI’s CEO of applications, Fidji Simo, in a briefing with reporters on Thursday. “We have had an increase in resources focused on ChatGPT in general.”” Publication and presentation talk, Sam Altman is great at that. But the media? Where are they? Who actually looked at them for the last few days? Where are those articles? 

I am not out for blood, or out to get Sam Altman, I am out to get the media. They are all about the danger setting, but this is becoming out of balance and the media loves their digital dollar raking, but enough is enough. They need to fess up to the settings and do something about it all. If ChatGPT 5.2 is great, fine. I don’t mind, but I want to get the goods and the media is falling short in several ways. Venezuela, OpenAI, Israel, Saudi Arabia and that list goes on, they are (as I personally see it) catering to their need for digital dollars as long as it agrees with the stakeholders they are reporting to.

The Wall Street Journal (at https://www.wsj.com/articles/openai-updates-chatgpt-amid-battle-for-knowledge-workers-995376f9) gives us “The release comes about a week after Chief Executive Sam Altman declared a “code red” effort to improve the quality of ChatGPT and to delay development of some other initiatives, including advertising. The company has been on high alert from the rising threat of Google’s latest Gemini AI model, which outperformed ChatGPT on certain benchmarks including expert-level knowledge, logic puzzles, math problems and image recognition. The new OpenAI model was described by the company as better at math, science and coding benchmarks.” And as I see it, nearly all the media gives exactly the same lines and no one is actually looking into how good ChatGPT is now, or even whether it is or is not. There are investors with Trillions on the line and the media is playing the “distancing game”, only when things go bad they are tripping over each other giving us the lines and at that point the stakeholders have the like it or lump it.

Is no one noticing that part of the equation? 

So, is GPT-5.2 the WOW result everyone is banking on? Did it defeat Gemini 3? I don’t know but the media should have been all over this and they aren’t. As I see it, this is a form of orchestration but to where I don’t know. Is it about the trillions invested (I see that as liability towards investors) is it about the absence of excellence (I see that as liability towards both Google and OpenAI) and there is the liability towards the readers or listeners of whoever they service. So this isn’t defamation, because in all, the media did nothing really wrong. But they sold us short whilst claiming they are there for us and they are not.

So is it me? Or is there is larger setting that is ignored by too many?

I know that some will not agree with me, but after the days of the Code Red, where are the media results of what OpenAI/Sam Altman produced? Not the same hundred words they all seemingly give us, but the real results, the real tests and the real impressions. I haven’t seen one result from them. Even with my limited knowledge (I never used ChatGPT) I could drum up a few tests in seconds and I would put both Gemini 3 and ChatGPT5.2 on the road. I could let them lose on a few of my articles and see what they both come up with and how long it takes them. Something EVERY baboon working in media (sorry, not sorry) could have come up with in mere seconds. Isn’t it lovely that they never came up with that? Think about that for a moment when they give you another runaround on Oracle, like Quartz ‘Oracle’s big AI dreams are freaking out Wall Street’ and Forbes with ‘Oracle Stock Down 14%. Why Higher Risk Makes $ORCL A Sell’ all whilst no one is looking at the true and real value of Oracle. No, the investors must be spooked (for whatever reason). So you all have a great day, we are nearly all in Saturday now and I am a mere 170 minutes away from Sunday. 

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December 8, 2025 · 22:58

A Peter Sellers world

That is what hit me when I saw ‘How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bubble’ (source: Bloomberg) which comes from Dr Strangelove where we get “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb” it started a larger set of thoughts. 

I didn’t use that article as Bloomberg uses a paywall. And it starts with yesterdays article in FXLeaders (at https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/12/07/oracles-ai-bubble-bursts-peak-glory-at-345-now-a-217-hangover/) where we see ‘Oracle’s AI Bubble Bursts: Peak Glory at $345, Now a $217 Hangover’ we are given “ORCL ended the week at $217.58, up 1.52 percent, but it still had a 37 percent hangover from its 52-week high of $345.72. This is a microcosm of growing concerns about debt loads, AI infrastructure spending, and whether the “infinite demand” narrative for AI compute can withstand real-world economics.” As well as “Oracle’s recent decline in stock value reflects broader market concerns regarding the high valuations of AI-related companies, as its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio exceeds 33. The company projects revenues of $166 billion from cloud infrastructure and $20 billion. Investors adopted a “sell the news” mentality, raising questions about the sustainability of these forecasts. Oracle’s fundamentals remain solid. The company experienced  52% growth in cloud infrastructure and has $455 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO), largely due to its partnership with OpenAI. Currently, the stock is trading at 13.9 times projected earnings for the end of this decade, leading some investors to view the decline as a potential buying opportunity.”

As I see it Oracle passed their burst bubble setting. And whilst we see ups and downs, I would unreservedly trust the Oracle stock to be a beacon of steadiness. It might not be sexy, but it is a trustworthy sign for those who need a decent return on investment.

Or as Peter sellers would say:
“As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden. Yes! There will be growth in the spring!” (Source: Being there) it was a better time and weirdly enough the age of Peter Sellers applies to the days that 2025 brings. And from that setting we get to MyNews (at https://sc.mp/ihj4g) where we see ‘Why 2026 will be the year AI hype collides with reality’ an opinion piece that gives me “The reckoning ahead for the AI bubble promises to reprice expectations, force economic trade-offs and call out circular deals” but the stronger setting is given with “Speculative assumptions guiding trillions of US dollars in AI investments are colliding with real-world obstacles. Escalating costs, stratospheric stock valuations, tenuous collaborations and energy bottlenecks are compounding the inevitable challenges when new technologies struggle for profitability. Many are worried the bubble may be bursting. Morgan Stanley projects that the cumulative amount spent worldwide on data centers could exceed US$3 trillion by year-end 2028. China’s AI investment could hit 700 billion yuan (US$99 billion) this year, 48 per cent more than last year, according to Bank of America, with the government supplying US$56 billion.” There is a setting for both ‘AI investments are colliding with real-world obstacles’ and ‘worldwide on data centers could exceed US$3 trillion by year-end 2028’ the weird feeling I have that it will not get this far, this entire setting will implode before the end of 2027, investors will stop feeling lovingly towards the boom that is not coming and will start feeling pressured that the terms required that will grow erratic setting for the need for greed and that is the setting that comes along long before 2027 is reached. 

Then we get to AOL who gives us (at https://www.aol.com/finance/goldman-sachs-issues-warning-ai-103249744.html) where we are given ‘Goldman Sachs issues a warning to AI stock investors’ where we are given ““Our discussions with investors and recent equity performance reveal limited appetite for companies with potential AI-enabled revenues as investors grapple with whether AI is a threat or opportunity for many companies. While we expect the AI trade will eventually transition to Phase 3, investors will likely require evidence of a tangible impact on near-term earnings to embrace these stocks. Unlike Phase 2, there will likely be winners and losers within Phase 3,” Goldman Sachs US equity strategist Ryan Hammond wrote in a new note on Friday. Hammond thinks AI investment as a percentage of capital expenditures could be nearing a climax. In turn, that sets the stage for overly upbeat AI investors to be let down if earnings don’t come in strongly in future quarters.” As I see it, when we are given these settings everyone seems to get concerned, so when we get in addition “Salesforce (CRM) and Figma (FIG) got drilled on Thursday after their earnings reports didn’t wow. It’s clear that the hype on their earnings calls wasn’t enough to paper over soft areas of the earnings reports. Growing concern on the Street centers around the pace of AI demand by corporations, given what looks to be a slowing US economy.” As I stated this before, the need for greed overwhelmed everything. When the setting of NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) is not clearly laid out and it is caught in the waves of board of directors and Investors believing that they have the AI solution everyone is looking for you gets a larger setting, consider that and consider what happens when OpenAI “fails to wow” the investors, or even a delay and it all comes to a large shutdown and that is even before we see 9 News giving us “A Sydney data centre that will host ChatGPT is being hailed as a win for Australia, but an expert warns the country lacks the energy supply needed to power it reliably” I gave a few months ago that there would be an energy problem on numerous levels and now we are seeing that whilst we are dealing with the the fallout of other settings. And less than an hour ago Deutsche Welle gives us ‘Google raises AI stakes as OpenAI struggles to stay on top’  with “Given those strengths, Adrian Cox sees “a very high probability” Google will have the leading model at least into next year — not OpenAI. OpenAI’s priority, he says, is identifying a business model capable of funding a user base that could soon approach a billion people per week.” This is not about OpenAI, I did that already, the larger frame is set in the perception of whatever the bubble is and I believe that there are two factors that the media doesn’t want or is avoiding to include. First there are the doom sayers trying to early burst confidence in favor of short gains and then there are people trying to short on whatever they can so that they can get another jolt of profit and they are all out trying to set social media on their side. 

So if this is the prologue of what is about to unfold we are in for a jolly good time, and as I see it, there is a chance that Christmas for some will be a disaster.

I wanted to include more of Peter sellers, like the Party or the Pink Panther but I am running out of juice. But there was one more thing and I got it from the Independent about an hour ago. It states ‘OpenAI rushes out new AI model in ‘code red’ response to fears about Google’ (at https://ca.news.yahoo.com/openai-rushes-ai-model-code-105822611.html) that was the snippet I was hoping for. With “The ChatGPT creator will unveil GPT-5.2 this week, The Verge reported, after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a “code red” situation following the launch of Google Gemini 3 last month. Google’s latest AI model surpassed ChatGPT in several benchmark tests, including abstract and visual reasoning, as well as advanced knowledge across scientific disciplines.” But that comes in a setting, you see, I stated in ‘TBD CEO OpenAI’ two days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/12/06/tbd-ceo-openai/) “in a software release any of a hundred things can go wrong and they all need to go right at present.” And when things are rushed out things will go wrong. But there is a snag, for this to happen The Independent article had to be correct and as they are the only one giving us this, there is no real verification available. But when you are in a stage when bubbles go boom (or plop) all the available facts become important. And I massively wish that a Peter sellers setting would help me out. And perhaps in view of this, his classic phrase “It’s no matter. When you’ve seen one Stradivarius, you’ve seen them all.” Especially when looking at NIP software. But that is also the snag. I have seen excellent applications and I have seen lesser ones. I reckon that it amounts to who plays the violin, if it is a creative person that person will find new life in whatever that person. applies NIP to, if it is a salesperson it will be about maximizing greed and that setting tends to have limitations on several degrees. In addition we are given “The new model was originally scheduled to launch in late December, but will now be released as early as 9 December.” I understand the pressures that come with this but they better understand that early launch bring dangers and investors don’t really like to be spooked (they also don’t like them) What we see is open to interpretation and it is a valid thought that my views are also open to interpretation. 

So in this I leave you all with a presenting view not unlike Peter sellers would say “To see me as a person on screen would be one of the dullest experiences you could ever wish to experience” and 

As you I have never been in a movie (at least I don’t remember being in one) you are spared that dull experience. So have a great day and don’t forget to love the bubble (if you haven’t invested your wealth there).

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December 6, 2025 · 20:40

TBD CEO OpenAI 

That is the thought I had, yesterday, 5 hours after I wrote my piece, I still saw the news appear all over the media, some on it was getting a ridiculous amount of attention, so I decided to take another look at some of this. First there was the Business insider (at https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-code-red-chatgpt-advertising-google-search-gemini-2025-12) giving us ‘OpenAI’s Code Red: Protect the loop, delay the loot’ where we see “Focus on improving ChatGPT, and pause lower-priority initiatives. The most striking pause is advertising. Why delay such a lucrative opportunity at a moment when OpenAI’s finances face intense scrutiny? Because in tech, nothing matters more than users.” This was followed by “Every query and click fed a feedback loop: user behavior informed ranking systems, which improved results, which attracted more users. Over time, that loop became an impenetrable moat. Competing with it has proven nearly impossible.

ChatGPT occupies a similar position for AI assistants. Nearly a billion people now interact with it weekly, giving OpenAI an unmatched new window into human intent, curiosity, and decision-making. Each prompt and reply can be fed back into model training, evaluations, and reinforcement learning to strengthen what is arguably the world’s most powerful AI feedback loop.” All this makes sense, it comes with the nearly mandatory “Google’s Gemini 3 rollout has lured new users. If ChatGPT’s quality slips or feels cluttered, defecting to Google becomes easier. Introducing ads now risks exactly that. Even mildly irritated users could view ads as one annoyance too many.” Whilst in the background we are ‘sensitive’ to “OpenAI has already committed to spending hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure to serve ChatGPT at a global scale. At some point, those bills will force the company to monetize more aggressively.

If OpenAI manages to build even half of Google’s Search ads business in an AI-native form, it could generate roughly $50 billion in annual profit. That’s one way to fund its colossal ambitions.” This gives OpenAI a two sided blade in the back. It was a good ploy, but that ploy is deemed to be counter productive and I get that, but dropping the ads might sting with the investors as It was the dimes that they were seeing coming their way and ChatGPT needs to make a smooth entry all the way to the next update, which will be near impossible to avoid in several ways. Google has the inside track now and whilst there are a few settings that are ‘malleable’ for the users, the smooth look is essential for ChatGPT to continue. And that is before other start looking at the low quality data it verifies against. Google has, as I see it, exactly the same problem, but as I see it, ChatGPT gets it now in advance. 

Newcomer (at https://www.newcomer.co/p/openais-code-red-shows-the-power) gives us “In truth, as Newcomer’s Tom Dotan wrote back in April, Google, with all of its formidable assets, was never very far behind. Nor is it currently very far ahead. Anthropic too has always been essentially neck-and-neck with OpenAI on the core technology. The capabilities of the big foundation models, and even some lighter ones like DeepSeek, are broadly similar. Marc Benioff, himself a skilled practitioner in the arts of attention, even claimed this week that the big models will be interchangeable commodities, like disk drives. Yet the perception of who’s on top matters quite a lot at a moment when consumers, enterprise technology buyers, and investors are all deciding where to place some highly consequential long-term bets. That brings us back to Altman’s “Code Red.”” Is a truth in itself, but the next part “while the alarm came in a company-wide memo that wasn’t officially announced publicly, we can stipulate that the “leak” of the memo, if not necessarily orchestrated, was almost certainly part of the plan. A media maestro like Altman surely knew that a memo going out to thousands of employees with charged language like “Code Red” was all but guaranteed to make its way to the press. Publicizing a panicked internal reaction to a competitor’s new product might seem like a counter-intuitive way to maintain your reputation as the industry leader.” As I see it, someone in Microsoft marketing earned his dollars in marketing that day, but this is a personal feeling, I have no data to back it up. It is now up to Sam Altman to deliver his ‘new’ version in the coming week and it better the a great new release, or as I see it, there will be heads rolling all over the floor and Sam Altman knows that the pressure is up. I don’t think he is scared as some media says, but he is definitely worried, because this setting will set the record of $13 billion straight, into or away from Microsoft and Sam Altman knows this, as such he is probably a little worried and in a software release any of a hundred things can go wrong and they all need to go right at present. 

Then we get “Altman and OpenAI are so good at making news that it’s sometimes hard to tell what’s real.” So, isn’t that the setting all the time? I have always seen Sam Altman as a bad second hands car salesman, That is my take, but I have had a healthy disgust for salespeople for over 30 years. I am a service person, Technical support, customer support. That was always my field. I am not against sales, merely against cleaning up their messes. At times this comes with the territory, shit happens, but those salespeople overselling something just so that they can fill their pipeline and make their numbers are not acceptable to me. To illustrate this, A little setting (devoid of names and brands) “A salesperson came to me with what he needed. We could not do that and I told him, so off he goes calling every technical support person on the planet until he found one that agreed with him and then he sold the solution to the customer and hung that persona name on this. I had to clean up the mess and set up a credit invoice, but after I went through the whole 9 yards making it over 30 days ensuring him that he kept his commission” that is the type I am disgusted with because the brands as a whole suffers, all for the need of greed. It is short sighted thinking. I goes nowhere, but his monthly revenue was guaranteed. And I feel that Sam Altman is not completely like that, but it is the ‘offset’ of salespeople that I carry within me. For me protecting the product and the customer are first and foremost on my mind. 

Then we get Futurism (at https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/openai-is-suddenly-in-major-trouble) where we see ‘OpenAI Is Suddenly in Major Trouble’ OK, is this true? We are given “The financial stakes are almost comical in their magnitude: The company is lighting billions of dollars on fire, with no end in sight; it’s committed to spending well over $1 trillion over the next several years while simultaneously losing a staggering sum each quarter. And revenues are lagging far behind, with the vast majority of ChatGPT users balking at the idea of paying for a subscription.” I don’t agree with this setting. You either pay, or you see advertisement that is the setting. There are no free rides and the sooner you realise this, the easier this gets. Then we are given “Meanwhile, Google has made major strides, quickly catching up with OpenAI’s claimed 800 million or so weekly active ChatGPT users as of September. Worse yet, Google is far better positioned to turn generative AI into a viable business — all while minting a comfortable $30 billion in profit each quarter, as the Washington Post points out.” I agree with the setting the Washington Post sets out with and Google does have an advantage, but that is still relying on the fact that Sam Altman does not get his new version seen as stellar in the coming week. He still has a much larger issue, but that is for later. All this comes at the price of being in the frontrunner team. Easy does it, there is no other way and the stakes are set rather high. So then we are given “In a Thursday note, Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid estimated staggering losses for OpenAI amounting to $140 billion between 2024 and 2029.” This is probably true, but where are the numbers. $140 billion over 5 years is one, but what revenue is set against it? Because if this is still set against a revenue number that OpenAI keeps making they are going decently sweet, the numbers were never in debate, the return on investment was and these stakes are high and there is no debating that, these numbers are either given or they are not. 

Then we are given something that makes sense ““OpenAI may continue to attract significant funding and could ultimately develop products that generate substantial profits and revolutionize the world,” he wrote, as quoted by WaPo. “But at present, no start-up in history has operated with expected losses on anything approaching this scale.” “We are firmly in uncharted territory,” Reid added.” I agree, in several ways, but the revenue is not given as such the real deal is absent. Consider YouTube, did anyone see the upside of a $1.65 billion acquisition 20 years ago? It now generates $36.1 billion in annual revenue (2024), Microsoft and OpenAI are banking on that same setting and Microsoft needs it to get a quality replacement for Clippy and they are banking on ChatGPT, this will only happen if they win over Google and I have my doubts on this. There is no real evidence because the new version isn’t ready yet, but it really needs one hitch to make it all burn down and Altman knows this. The numbers or better, the statistics are not on his side. And as I haven’t see a decent software price fight for a while, so I am keeping my thumbs up for Altman (I am however a through and through Google guy). This is a worthy fight watching and I am wondering how this might evolves over the next week.

The stakes are high, the challenge is high, lets see if Sam Altman rises to the occasion. It’s almost Sunday for me so have a great day you all, I reckon that Ryan Reynolds is about 6 hours from breakfast in Vancouver now.

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December 5, 2025 · 22:25

The rockstar wannabe

There is a setting we at times ignore. When so called ‘important’ people hide behind movie settings like Sam Altman is when he calls for ‘Code Red’ (at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/dec/02/sam-altman-issues-code-red-at-openai-as-chatgpt-contends-with-rivals) I tend to get frisky and a little stir crazy, but as we see the Guardian, we are given “According to a report by tech news site the Information, the chief executive of the San Francisco-based startup told staff in an internal memo: “We are at a critical time for ChatGPT.”

OpenAI has been rattled by the success of Google’s latest AI model, Gemini 3, and is devoting more internal resources to improving ChatGPT. Last month, Altman told employees that the launch of Gemini 3, which has outperformed rivals on various benchmarks, could create “temporary economic headwinds” for the company. He added: “I expect the vibes out there to be rough for a bit.”” So after all the presentations and the posturing by OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman, we are now confronted that the CEO of Google, Sundar Pichai smirking and devouring a Beef Vindaloo with naan bread casually passed Sam Altman by and overtook his setting of ChatGPT with Gemini 3. 

We are given “Marc Benioff, the chief executive of the $220bn (£166bn) software group Salesforce, wrote last month that he had switched allegiance to Gemini 3 and was “not going back” after trying Google’s latest AI release. “I’ve used ChatGPT every day for 3 years. Just spent 2 hours on Gemini 3. I’m not going back. The leap is insane – reasoning, speed, images, video … everything is sharper and faster. It feels like the world just changed, again,” he wrote on X.” And if a BI guy like Marc Benioff makes that jump, a lot of others will do too and that is what is truly frightening to Microsoft who owns a little below 30% of all this, it is nice to have a DML solution that has a population of zero, OK, not zero but ridiculously small because as ever (and not surprising) Google is showing his brilliance and overtook the wannabe.

So whilst Sam Altman decided that he was the next Elon Musk we see (at https://gizmodo.com/sam-altman-wants-his-own-rocket-company-2000695680) that ‘Sam Altman Wants His Own Rocket Company’ and we see here “Altman was reportedly considering investing billions into Stoke Space, a Seattle-based startup that’s developing a reusable rocket, to gain a controlling stake in the company, according to The Wall Street Journal. The talks between Altman and Stoke took place over the summer and picked up in the fall. Although no deal has been made yet, Altman intended on either buying or partnering with a rocket company so that he would be able to deploy AI data centers to space.” So whilst Sammy the Oldman, sorry Sam Altman was turning his focus towards space Sundar Pichai surpassed him in the DML field because Sundar, beside his need for Beef Vindaloo was seemingly focussed on the Data matters of Google, allegedly not with his head in space.

And now we see (at https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/sam-altman-code-red) that ‘Sam Altman Is Suddenly Terrified’ and now we are given “The all-out brawl that followed in the subsequent years, with AI companies trying to outdo each other with their own offerings as investors threw tens of billions of dollars at the tech, has shifted the dynamics considerably.

And now, the tables have officially turned: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has declared his own “code red” in a memo to employees this week, as the Wall Street Journal reports, urging staffers to improve the quality of the company’s blockbuster chatbot, even at the cost of delaying other projects.” So as I see it, Sam Altman was ready to be the next rockstar of Microsoft surpassing all others, but Google (say Sundar Pichai) had been sitting on a throne for the better part of two decades, they had relented the Console war (their Google Stadia) towards Amazon with the Amazon Luna. And that might have been a sore loss. So when another ‘upstart’ comes with a great idea, Google recounts and Gemini was the result, or that is at least how I see it. And by the time version three was ready, Gemini was back in the lead or so they say.

So now Sam Altman is in a bind, he needs to evolve ChatGPT and that might have been be in what some call a pickle, so whilst Sam Altman was looking at the sky, Google took the time to overtake Sam Altman with Gemini 3. And now the storm has reached the shores of the financial industry. Now Microsoft is in a pickle, because the OpenAI is now due to the investment marked the start of a partnership between the cloud computing firm and the AI research company that has since grown to more than US$13bn in total commitments. Microsoft and OpenAI are bound to ChatGPT to the nihilistic setting of these firms losing 13 billion in value, so when that happens, what more will unfold? I am not stating that this will burst the AI bubble, but as I see it Sam Altman will see his halo decrease looking a lot like a zero, and Microsoft sees the tally of failures increase to two, first builder.ai, now we see that Microsoft is surpassed again by Google, which is not a great surprise to me. 

And as Futurism gives us “Google, though, has a major financial advantage by already being profitable. It can afford to spend aggressively on data centers, at least for the time being. That’s besides Google Search having been the de facto search engine on the internet for decades, giving it access to a vast number of existing users who could be swayed by its AI offerings.

Altman claimed in the memo that the company has an ace up its sleeve in the form of an even more powerful reasoning model that’s set to be released as early as next week, according to the WSJ, likely a direct response to Google’s Gemini 3.” So is this a simple setting of a little time gap, or is OpenAI now in more trouble than anyone think it is? I actually do not know, but there is a setting that I personally like. I was always Google minded. I was struck in my soul when they dropped the Google Stadia as I had a plan to give it 50,000,000 subscriptions in stage one and rally add to that beyond that, knocking Microsoft of its illusionary perch. But alas, it was not to be and Amazon had the inside track from that point inwards. And I personally feel that the stage of “to be released as early as next week” is likely want-to-be-real presentation, Sam Altman is trying to get any moment he can get and that is fine, but as I see it, it might be timing and people like Sam Altman will try to get any way to keep their cushy setting. I am not judging, but the stage that Gemini 3 is surpassed is likely, will it be? I doubt it, using the words from Marc Benioff stating “not going back” and that is a powerful setting, one that creeps fear into the hearts of Sam Altman and Satya Nadella as I personally see it.

Have a great day, my weekend has begun and Vancouver will join us in 15 hours.

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December 2, 2025 · 18:09

Aftermath

That is a setting I never really contemplated, but the Guardian did and they did a terrific job, they even had a reference to the 49’ers, which will make Jeremy Renner happy. The article ‘The question isn’t whether the AI bubble will burst – but what the fallout will be’ by Eduardo Porter (at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/dec/01/ai-bubble-us-economy) hands us a few sides, a few I never considered as I was looking at the techno stuff, but here we see: “300,000 people flocked there from 1848 to 1855, from as far away as the Ottoman Empire. Prospectors massacred Indigenous people to take the gold from their lands in the Sierra Nevada mountains. And they boosted the economies of nearby states and faraway countries from whence they bought their supplies.” 

Which gives root to the expression 49’er and it continues giving us “Gold provided the motivation for California – a former Mexican territory then controlled by the US military – to become a state with laws of its own. And yet, few “49ers” as prospectors were known, struck it rich. It was the merchants selling prospectors food and shovels who made the money. One, a Bavarian immigrant named Levi Strauss who sold denim overalls to the gold bugs passing through San Francisco, may be the most remembered figure of his day.” 

And then we get the first sliver “How else to explain Nvidia’s stock price, which more than doubled from April to November, based entirely on the expectation, nay hope, that AI will produce a super-intelligence that can do everything humans do but better. Nvidia – like Levi Strauss back in the day – is at least selling something: computer chips. The valuations of many of the other AI plays – like Open AI or Anthropic – are based largely on the dream.” 

But there is a missing cog, this technology needs dat storage and that is where I saw the failing of others and the failings of those overlooking data technologies. Oracle is intrinsically connected to that, Azure needs it, Snowflake prefers it and pretty much every data vendor is connecting to Oracle to get it all done in the background, and that is the sliver. Oracle is intrinsically connected to it all and it is the tamer of the data beast or better stated the data demon. As Oracle brings out tools and optionally data settings within their AI storage settings to handle validation and verification, all others will need to adhere better and deeper to the Oracle foundation to even survive. Pretty much all the sources that see the dangers of what some call AI and is clearly nothing better than a DML/LLM engine will see that these two elements are essential to get the LLM engine to do anything that matters and that is where the bonus of Oracle currently resides (as I presumptuously see it) To show this, I will take you back to 1984

User comments

See here, this is what chess computer’s looked like. You press the chess piece you want to move and you push the square where it lands. That is the foundation of the chess computer. In the ‘underground’ of that chessboard are (figuratively speaking) two chips. One had the knowledge of chess, the second chip (mainly memory) has every chess match known to mankind (basically all games all grandmasters have ever played), the program sees what moves are made and that setting is translated to a ‘position base’ and it will look at all the matches who it can foresee what moves are coming. This is great for the player, as it now needs to make an illogical move to throw over the thinking of the computer and make it their bitch. This was pretty much the fist stage of Machine Learning and as todays computers are more clever, there resolution is no way better, It can only set foundation of what it learned, that is the simplicity of knowing that AI doesn’t yet exist.

So back to the story “As I pointed out in my last column about AI, Gita Gopinath, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, calculated that a stock market crash equivalent to that which ended the dot-com boom would erase some $20tn in American household wealth and another $15tn abroad, enough to strangle consumer spending and induce a recession.” And I have no way of knowing that setting, but as I see it, like Levi Strauss and the makers of bubbles (like in image one) someone has to supply the soap water and more important the jeans to not put once ass out to frolic and in that second setting Oracle comes in and even as I see the ‘panic drivers, saying that Oracle is dangerous’, there is another setting. Whatever comes out of this, whatever survives, most only survives on Oracle solutions. And that is what is left unspoken. Should Oracle add the Validation and Verification tables, they will be the only one raking in the gold when True AI comes, because it is not merely the missing part I discussed earlier, someone needs to set the record straight on what is optionally to be trusted and that is where Oracle sets the mark.

Which leads to “AI could produce a similar landscape. A critical determinant is how much debt is at stake. It wouldn’t be such a problem if the bubble were financed largely from the cash pile of Alphabet and Amazon, Microsoft and Facebook. They might lose their shirt, but who cares. The worrying bit is that it seems they are increasingly relying on borrowing, which means the prospect of a bursting bubble would again put the financial system at risk.” These systems are using the data as currency, as I see it, Oracle is putting its technology up for usage and that is a pretty safe way to do this. This is whyI have faith in Oracle, that is why I see Oracle as the one surviving the goldfish like a champion, because they are doing what Levi Strauss did. These data vendors are relying on data to clothe them, but if that data is not properly managed, they end up having nothing. Yes, Microsoft will survive, but at a level that is likely 2 trillion lower than it is now. And that is mainly because it wanted to be on top of things and they got (I think it was) 24% of OpenAI, but as that bursts, Sam Altman will have even less than I have now (and I am ridiculously poor) and that cargo train of debt will hit Microsoft square in the face, Oracle will get some damage, but not nearly as much and the world will need their data solutions. Why do you think everyone wants to connect to Oracle? It is the Rolls Royce of data collecting and data storage. And that is perhaps the only issue with that article, there is zero mention of Oracle.

So as we get “Big Tech has raised nearly $250bn in debt so far this year, according to Bloomberg, a record. Analysts at Morgan Stanley suggest that debt will be needed to fill a $1.5tn funding gap to ramp up spending on data centers and hardware. Problematically, it is getting hard to follow the money, as Nvidia, Open AI and others in the ecosystem buy into each other, clouding who, in the end, will be left holding the bag.” And there is one think wrong with this. Stargate is said to be $500bn, so there is a gap in all this and I reckon that the damage will be significantly worse, that is beside the small non mentioned fact that America at present has 5,427 data centers, how many of them and to what degree are they all set to ‘their version of AI’? So what is set in what some call Blue Owl solutions (like Meta) and what happens when those solutions ‘bubble out’ (collapse might be a better phrase) so when that happens, how much damage will that bring, because as I see it (not wearing glasses) the $1.5tn funding gap won’t even be close what is required. But that is just me speculating, so feel free to (I insist) that you get your own verifiable numbers. I reckon that between now and 2029 the return of a backlogged $4 trillion return on investment is required. So taking “a banks perspective”, an inaccurately amount of $292,500,000,000 in revenue needs to be shown for that bubble not to come and that is out of the question, but the setting that Eduardo Porter gives us, is what comes next and he gives it to us as “the Superhuman – can only come about by dropping LLMs – which are essentially massive correlation engines – and switching to something else called a world model architecture, where machines develop a “mental” model of the outside world.” It is a nice sentiment, but I do not completely agree with that. Correlation engines have their use and there is use in a DML/LLM setting, but identify it as such, not claim ‘AI does it’. Because it won’t and it can’t, but there are options in Oracle to upgrade the data you have and that is instrumental in surviving this bubble burst. And I have seen the folly in several places and that might set a better station down the road, because when true AI cones, it still needs data and if that data was managed, validated and verified in Oracle (preferably), half the war of that solution bringer is solved. 

So I need a different hobby, slapping Microsoft and AI evangelists is nice, almost a public service but I need a new idea for gaming IP, because that makes me happy and I like feeling happy. So whilst some think that “Nvidia, Open AI and others in the ecosystem buy into each other” is the hard core evil stuff (and it might be) there is a setting it reminds me of, it was in the 90’s and these ‘consultants’ were all into the need of funny money in the form of assignments, the issue was that when they had to show results they immediately took another job and took their ‘knowhow’ to greener shores and all the time this happened the shores were all becoming less and less green. This has the flair of that setting and to some degree the feel. 

I might be wrong on that last part, but that is what I feel on this, especially as the big players are buying into each others solution and handing each other pieces of paper that in the end has as much value as a roll off toilet paper.

It might not be eloquently phrased, but there is a time for that and this is not it, as speculated shit is about to hit the walls and if you are lucky it happens after Christmas (that is almost certain) but in the end, the invoice is due and that is where the CFO’s will show that as they embraced the Blue Owl solution, their company is saved. I would depend on and side with whatever Oracle has, it is not based on facts, it is a feeling and that feeling is strong at present. And in support I see (9 minutes ago) ‘Ooredoo Qatar announces strategic partnership with Oracle to deploy Oracle Alloy sovereign cloud and AI platform’, they didn’t go towards Microsoft, AWS of a few other settings, they trust Oracle and that is what plenty of others need to do.

Have a great day, I am now 8 hours from midweek, not a bad deal for me today and as the sun is shining brightly, I might hide in a winterly Hogsmeade whilst playing Hogwarts Legacy. Gaming is not a bad hobby to have in this case. Because the bubble is out of my control and I am happy to watch it all explode a day later (of whenever that is), most of the garnish news has been drowned out by real news at that point.

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November 27, 2025 · 22:50

And Grok ploughed on

That happens, but after yesterdays blog ‘The sound of war hammers’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/11/27/the-sound-of-war-hammers/) I got a little surprise. I could not have I want to planned it better.

You see, the article is about the AI bubble and a few other settings. So at times, I want Grok to take a look. No matter what you think, it tends to be a decent solution in DML and I reckon that Elon Musk with his 500,000 million (sounds more impressive then $500B) has sunk a pretty penny in this solution. I have seen a few shortcomings, but overall a decent solution. As I personally see it (for as far as I have seen it) that solution has a problem looking into and through multidimensional viewpoints. That is how I usually take my writing as I am overwhelmed at times with the amount of documentation I go through on a daily basis. As such I got a nice surprise yesterday.

So the story goes of with war hammers (a hidden stage there) then I go into the NPR article and I end up with the stage of tourism (the cost as the Oxford Economics report gives us) and I am still digging into that. But what does Grok give me?

The expert mode gives us:

The linked post directs to a blog by Lawrence van Rijn, a self-styled “Law Lord to be,” where he explores a narrative blending legal aspirations with speculative commentary, notably predicting FIFA might shift the 2026 World Cup from the U.S. to Saudi Arabia due to visa issues and a $435 fee delay, a theory unsupported by official FIFA statements but echoing concerns from a Travel.com article about U.S. tourism losses.

Van Rijn’s blog ties this speculation to an unusual metaphor of “war hammers” clashing on armor, symbolizing economic and technological tensions, particularly an AI bubble warned about in an NPR report (November 23, 2025), which cites MIT economist Daron Acemoglu’s research showing only 3% of people pay for AI services, challenging the trillion-dollar investments by tech giants like OpenAI.

His energy shortage concern aligns with a U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast of a 45% electricity price hike in Texas by 2026 due to data center demand, a trend overlooked by mainstream media focused on AI hype, suggesting a potential societal cost as power grids strain under unreported load increases.

Now, in the article I never mentioned FIFA, the 2026 World Cup or Saudi Arabia, so how did this program come to this? Check out the blog, none of those elements were mentioned there. As some tell us Grok is a generative artificial intelligence (generative AI) chatbot developed by xAI. So where is that AI program now? This is why I made mention in previous blogs that 2026 will be the year that the class actions will start. In my case, I do not care and my blog is not that important, even if it was, it was meant for actual readers (the flesh and blood kind) and that does not apply to Grok. I have seen a few other issues, but this yesterday and in light of the AI bubble story yesterday (17 hours ago) pushed this to the forefront. I could take ‘offense’ to the “self-styled “Law Lord to be”” but whatever and I have been accused of a lot worse by actual people too. And the quote “this speculation to an unusual metaphor of “war hammers”” shows that Grok didn’t see through my ruse either (making me somewhat proud), which is ego caressing at best, but I have an ego, I merely don’t let it out to often (it tends to get a little too frisky with details) and at present I see an idea that both the UAE and Saudi Arabia could use in their entertainment. There is an upgrade for Trojena (as I see it), there are a few settings for the Abu Dhabi Marina as well. All in a days work, but I need to content with data to see how that goes. And I tend to take my ideas into a sifter to get the best materials as fine as possible, but that was today, so there will be more coming soon enough. 

But what do you do when an AI system bleeds information from other sources? Especially when that data is not validated or verified and both seem to be the case here. As I see it, there is every chance that some will direct these AI systems to give the wrong data so that these people can start class actions. I reckon that not too many people are considering this setting, especially those in harms way. And that is the setting that 2026 is likely to bring. And as I see it, there will be too many law firm of the ambulance chaser kind to ignore this setting. That is the effect that 8 figure class actions tend to bring and with the 8 figure number I am being optimistic. When I see what is possible there is every chance that any player in this field is looking at 9 or even 10 figure settlements, especially when it concerns medical data. And no matter what steps these firms make, there will be an ambulance chaser who sees a hidden opportunity. Even if there is a second tier option where a Cyber attack can launch the data into a turmoil, those legal minds will make a new setting where those AI firms never considered the implications that it could happen.

I am not being dramatic or overly doom speaking. I have seen enough greed all around me to see that this will happen. A mere three months ago we saw “The “Commonwealth Bank AI lawsuit” refers to a dispute where the Finance Sector Union (FSU) challenged CBA for misleading staff about job cuts related to an AI chatbot implementation. The bank initially made 45 call centre workers redundant but later reversed the decision, calling it a mistake after the union raised concerns at the Fair Work Commission. The case highlighted issues of transparency, worker support, and the handling of job displacement due to AI.” So at that point, how dangerous is the setting that any AI is trusted to any degree? And that is before some board of directors sets the term that these AI investments better pay off and that will cause people to do silly (read: stupid) things. A setting that is likely to happen as soon as next year. 

And at this time, Grok is merely ploughing on and set the stage where someone will trust it to make life changing changes to their firm, or data and even if it is not Grok, there is all the chances that OpenAI will do that and that puts Microsoft in a peculiar stage of vulnerable.

Have a great day, time for some ice cream, it was 33 degrees today, so my living room is hot as hell, as such ice cream is my next stage of cooling myself.

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November 24, 2025 · 20:46

The call of reality

That is what seems to be happening. The first one was a simple message that Oracle is doom headed according to Wall Street (I don’t agree with that), but it made me take another look and to make it simpler I will look at the articles chronologically. 

The first one was the Wall Street Journal (4 days ago), with ‘Oracle Was an AI Darling on Wall Street. Then Reality Set In’ (at https://www.wsj.com/tech/oracle-was-an-ai-darling-on-wall-street-then-reality-set-in-0d173758) with “Shares have lost gains from a September AI-fueled pop, and the company’s debt load is growing” with the added “Investors nervous about the scale of capital that technology companies are plowing into artificial-intelligence infrastructure rattled stocks this week. Oracle has been one of the companies hardest hit” but here is the larger setting. As I see it, these stocks are manipulated by others, whomever they are Hedge funds and their influencers and other parties calling for doom all whilst the setting of the AI bubble are exploiters by unknown gratifiers of self. I know that this sounds ominous and non specific, but there is no way most of us (including people with a much higher degree of economic knowledge than I will ever have) And the stage of bubble endearing is out there (especially in Wall Street) then 14 hours ago we get ‘Oracle (ORCL): Evaluating Valuation After $30B AI Cloud Win and Rising Credit Risk Concerns’ (at https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nyse-orcl/oracle/news/oracle-orcl-evaluating-valuation-after-30b-ai-cloud-win-and/amp) where we see “Recent headlines have only amplified the spotlight on Oracle’s cloud ambitions, but the past few months have been rocky for its share price. After a surge tied to AI-driven optimism, Oracle’s 1-month share price return of -29.9% and a year-to-date gain of 19.7% tell the story: momentum has faded sharply in the near term. However, the 1-year total shareholder return still sits at 4.4% and its five-year total return remains a standout at nearly 269%. This combination of volatility and long-term outperformance reflects a market grappling with Oracle’s rapid strategic shift, balance sheet risks, and execution on new contracts.” I am not debating the numbers, but no one is looking to the technology behind this. As I see it places like Snowflake and Oracle have the best technology for these DML and LLM solutions (OK, there are a few more) and for now, whomever has the best technology will survive the bubble and whomever is betting on that AI bubble going their way needs Oracle at the very least and not in a weakened state, but that is merely my point of view. So last we get the Motley Fool a mere 7 hours ago giving us ‘Billionaire David Tepper Dumped Appaloosa’s Stake in Oracle and Is Piling Into a Sector That Wall Street Thinks Will Outperform’ (at https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/11/23/billionaire-david-tepper-dumped-appaloosas-stake-i/) we see “Billionaire David Tepper’s track record in the stock market is nothing short of remarkable. According to CNBC, the current owner of the Carolina Panthers pro football team launched his hedge fund Appaloosa Management in 1993 and generated annual returns of at least 25% for decades. Today, Tepper still runs Appaloosa, but it is now a family office, where he manages his own wealth.” Now we get the crazy stuff (this usually happens when I speculate) So this gives us a person like David Tepper who might like to exploit Oracle to make it seem more volatile and exploit a shortening of options to make himself (a lot) richer. And when clever people become self managing, they tend to listen to their darker nature. Now I could be all wrong, but when Wall Street is going after one of the most innovative and secure companies on the planet just to satisfy the greed of Wall Street, I get to become a little agitated. So could it all be that Oracle was drawn into the ‘fab’ and lost it? No, they clearly stated that there would be little return until 2028, a decent prognosis and with the proper settings of DML and LLM finding better and profitable ways by 2027 to find revenue making streams is a decent target to have and it is seemingly an achievable one. In the meantime IBM can figure out (evolve) their shallow circuits and start working on their trinary operating system. I have no idea where they are at present, but the idea of this getting ready for a 2040 release is not out of the question. In the meantime Oracle can fill the void for millions of corporations that already have data, warehouses and form settings. Another are plenty of other providers of data systems.

So when we are given “The tech company Oracle is not one of the “Magnificent Seven,” but it has emerged as a strong beneficiary of artificial intelligence (AI), thanks to its specialized data centers that contain huge clusters of graphics processing units (GPUs) to train large language models (LLMs) that power AI.

In September, the company reported strong earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2026, along with blowout guidance. Remaining performance obligations increased 359% year over year to $455 billion, as it signed data center agreements with major hyperscalers, including OpenAI.”

So whilst we see “Oracle is not one of the “Magnificent Seven,” but it has emerged as a strong beneficiary of artificial intelligence (AI)” we need to take a different look at this. Oracle was never a strong beneficiary of AI, it was a strong vendor with data technologies and AI is about data and in all of this, someone is ‘fitting’ Oracle into a stage that everyone just blatantly accepts without asking too many questions (example the Media). With the additional “to train large language models (LLMs) that power AI”, the hidden gem is in the second statement. AI and LLM are not the same, You only partially train real AI, this is different and those ‘magnificent seven’ want you to look away from that. So, when was the last time that you actually read that AI does not yet exist? That is the created bubble and players like Oracle are indifferent to this, unless you spike the game. It has stocks, it has options and someone is turning influencers to their own use of greed. And I object to this, Oracle has proven itself for decades, longer than players like Microsoft and Google. So when we see ‘Buying the sector that Wall Street is bullish on’ we see another hidden setting. The bullishness of Wall Street. Do you think they don’t know that AI is a non-existing setting? So why go after the one technology that will make data work? That setting is centre in all this and I object those who go after Oracle. So when you answer the call of reality consider who is giving you the AI setting and who is giving you the DML/LLM stage of a data solution that can help your company.

Have a great day we are seemingly all on Monday at present. 

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November 19, 2025 · 16:47

I lost my marbles

Like Poodles, I seem to have misplaced my marbles. AKA I lost them completely. Now only 9 hours ago I shouted that I am sick of the AI bubble, but a few minutes ago I got called back into that fray. You see, I was woken up by an image.

This is the image and it gives us ‘Oracle’s $300bn OpenAI deal is now valued at minus $74bn’ there is no way this is happening. You see, I have clearly stated that the bubble is coming. But in this, Oracle has a set state of technologies it is contributing. As such, where is the bubble blowing up in the face of OpenAI and Microsoft? In this, the Financial Times (at https://www.ft.com/content/064bbca0-1cb2-45ab-85f4-25fdfc318d89) is giving us ‘Oracle is already underwater on its ‘astonishing’ $300bn OpenAI deal’. So where is the damager to the other two? We are given “OK, yes, it’s a gross simplification to just look at market cap. But equivalents to Oracle shares are little changed over the same period (Nasdaq Composite, Microsoft, Dow Jones US Software Index), so the $60bn loss figure is not entirely wrong. Oracle’s “astonishing quarter” really has cost it nearly as much as one General Motors, or two Kraft Heinz. Investor unease stems from Big Red betting a debt-financed data farm on OpenAI, as MainFT reported last week. We’ve nothing much to add to that report other than the below charts showing how much Oracle has, in effect, become OpenAI’s US public market proxy:” There might be some loss on Oracle (if that happens) and later on we were given (after a stack of graphics, see the story for that) “But Oracle is not the only laggard. Broadcom and Amazon are both down following OpenAI deal news, while Nvidia’s barely changed since its investment agreement in September. Without a share price lift, what’s the point? A combined trillion dollars of AI capex might look like commitment, but investment fashions are fickle.” And in this, I still have doubts on the reporting side of things. From my own feelings (not hard core numbers) that Oracle and Amazon are the best players to survive this as their technology is solid. When AI does come, they are likely the only two to set it right and the entire article goes out of its way to mention Microsoft. But in all this Microsoft has made significant investments in OpenAI and has rights to OpenAI’s Intellectual Property (IP). This comes down to Microsoft holding a stake in OpenAI’s for-profit arm, OpenAI Group PBC, valued at approximately $135 billion, which represents about 27% of the company. So how is Microsoft not mentioned? 

As such how come Oracle is underwater? Is it testing scuba gear? And if the article is indeed true, what is the value of OpenAI now? Because that will also drown the 27% of it (holding the name Microsoft) and that image is missing from that equation. If this is the bubble bursting, which might be true (a year before I predicted it) then it stands to rights that this is also impacting Amazon, Google, IBM, Microsoft and OpenAI. As such this article seems a little far fetched, a little immature and largely premature by now naming all the players in this game. I personally thought that Oracle would be one of the winners in all of this, or better stated a smallest loser in this multi trillion bubble.

So what gives?
And in this I might be incorrect and largely missing the point, but a write-off to the amount of nearly half a trillion dollars has more underwriters and mentioning merely Oracle is a little far fetched, no matter how fashionable they all seem to be and for that matter as Microsoft has been ‘advocating’ their copilot program, how deep are they in? Because the Oracle write-off will be squarely in the face of that Nadella dude. As he seemingly already missed the builder.ai setting, this might be the one ending his career and whatever comes next might want to commit suicide instead of accepting whatever promotion is coming his way. (I know it is a dark setting) but the image is a little disconcerting at present. And the images that the Financial Times give us, like the Hyperscaler capex, show Microsoft to be 3 times in deeper water than Oracle is, so why aren’t they mentioned in the text? And in those same images Amazon are in way over their heads and that is merely the beginning of a bubble going sideways on everyone. As such, is this a storm in a cup of water? If that is so, why is Oracle underwater? And there is ample reason to see me as a non-economist, I never was on wanted to be one. But the media as gives raises questions. And I agree, Oracle is on a long way to break even, but if they do not, neither are Amazon, Microsoft and OpenAi and that part is seemingly missing too. If anything, Larry Ellison could pay the shortcomings with his petty cash (he allegedly has 250,000 million) that is how own die and the others won’t even come near that amount. 

So whilst we wait for someone to make sense of this all, we need to walk carefully and not panic, because these settings tend to be the stage where the panicky people sell what they can for dimes to the dollar and that is not how I want to see players like Microsoft jump that shark. This is not any kind of anti-Microsoft deal, it is them calling the others not innovative whilst there isn’t a innovative bone in that cadaver. So whilst we want to call the cards. The only thing I do is calling the cards of the Financial Times and likewise reporting media calling out the missing settings of loss towards Microsoft and OpenAI. It is the best I can do, I know an economic major who could easily do that, but he is busy running Canada at the moment.

Have a great day and I apologize for causing an optional panic, which was not my intention.

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November 13, 2025 · 10:22

Labels

That is the setting and I introduce the readers to this setting yesterday, but there was more and there always is. Labels is how we tend to communicate, there is the label of ‘Orange baboon’ there is the label of ‘village idiot’ and there are many more labels. They tend to make life ‘easy’ for us. They are also the hidden trap we introduce to ourselves. In the ‘old’ days we even signify Business Intelligence by this, because it was easy for the people running these things. 

And example can be seen in

TABLES
 / v1 v2 v3 v4 v5 BY (LABELS)
 / count.

And we would see the accommodating table with on one side completely agree, agree, neutral, disagree and completely disagree, if that was the 5 point labeling setting we embraced and as such we saw a ‘decently’ complete picture and we all agreed that this was that is had to be.

But the not so hidden snag is that in the first these labels are ordinal (at best) and the setting of Likert scales (their official name) are not set in a scientific way, there is no equally adjusted difference between the number 1,2,3,4,5. That is just the way it is. And in the old days this was OK (as the feeling went). But today in what she call the AI setting and I call it NIP at best, the setting is too dangerous. Now, set this by ‘todays’ standards.

The simple question “Is America bankrupt?” Gets all kinds of answers and some will quite correctly give us “In contrast, the financial health of the United States is relatively healthy within the context of the total value of U.S. assets. A much different picture appears once one looks at the underlying asset base of the private and public economy.” I tend to disagree, but that is me without me economic degrees. But in the AI world it is a simple setting of numbers and America needs Greenland and Canada to continue the retention that “the United States is relatively healthy within the context of the total value of U.S. assets”, yes that would be the setting but without those two places America is likely around bankrupt and the AI bubble will push them over the edge. At least that is how I see it and yesterday I gave one case (or the dozen or so cases that will follow in 2026) in that stage this startup is basically agreeing to a larger then 2 billion settlement. So in what universe does a startup have this money? That is the constriction of AI, and in that setting of unverified and unscaled data the presence gets to be worse. And I remember a answer given to me at a presentation, the answer was “It is what it is” and I kinda accepted it, but an AI will go bonkers and wrong in several ways when that is handed to it. And that is where the setting of AI and NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) becomes clear. NIP is merely a 90’s chess game that has been taught (trained) every chess game possible and it takes from that setting, but the creative intellect does an illogical move and the chess game loses whatever coherency it has, that move was never programmed and that is where you see the difference between AI and NIP. The AI will creatively adjust its setting, the NIP cannot and that is what will set the stage for all these class actions. 

The second setting is ‘human’ error. You see, I placed the Likert scale intentionally, because in between the multitude of 1-5 scales there is one likely variable that was set to 5-1 and the programmers overlooked them and now when you see these AI training grounds at least one variable is set in the wrong direction, tainting the others and massing with the order of the adjusted personal scales. And that is before we get to the result of CLUSTER and QUICKCLUSTER results where a few more issues are introduced to the algorithm of the entire setting and that is where the verification of data becomes imperative and at present.

So here is a sort of random image, but the question it needs to raise is what makes these different sources in any way qualified to be a source? In this case if the data is skewed in Ask Reddit, 93% of the data is basically useless and that is missed on a few levels. There are quality high data sources, but these are few and far in-between, in the mean time these sources get to warp any other data we have. And if you are merely looking at legacy data, there is still the Likert scale data you in your own company had and that data is debatable at best. 

Labels are dangerous and they are inherently based on the designer of that data source (possible even long dead) and it tends to be done in his of her early stages of employment, making the setting even more debatable as it was ‘influenced’ by greedy CEO’s and CFO’s and they had their bonus in mind. A setting mostly ignored by all involved. 

As such are you surprised that I see the AI bubble to what it is? A dangerous reality coming our way in sudden likely unforeseen ways and it is the ‘unforeseen way’ that is the danger, because when these disgruntled employees talk to those who want to win a class action, all kinds of data will come to the surface and that is how these class actions are won. 

It was a simple setting I saw coming a mile away and whilst you wandered by I added the Dr. Strange part, you merely thought you had the labels thought through but the setting was a lot more dangerous and it is heading straight to your AI dataset. All wrongly thought through, because training data needs to have something verifiable as ‘absolutely true’ and that is the true setting and to illustrate this we can merely make a stop at Elon Musk inc. Its ‘AI’ grok having the almost prefect setting. We are given from one source “The bot has generated various controversial responses, including conspiracy theories, antisemitism, and praise of Adolf Hitler, as well as referring to Musk’s views when asked about controversial topics or difficult decisions.” Which is almost a dangerous setting towards people fueling Grok in a multitude of ways and ‘Hundreds of thousands of Grok chats exposed in Google results’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrkmk00jy0o) where we see “The appearance of Grok chats in search engine results was first reported by tech industry publication Forbes, which counted more than 370,000 user conversations on Google. Among chat transcripts seen by the BBC were examples of Musk’s chatbot being asked to create a secure password, provide meal plans for weight loss and answer detailed questions about medical conditions.” Is there anybody willing to do the honors of classifying that data (I absolutely refuse to do so) and I already gave you the headwind in the above story. In the fist how many of these 370,000 users are medical professionals? I think you know where this is going. And I think Grok is pretty neat as a result, but it is not academically useful. At best it is a new form of Wikipedia, at worst it is a round data system (trashcan) and even though it sounds nice, it is as nice as labels can be and that is exactly why these class cases will be decided out of court and as I personally see it when these hit Microsoft and OpenAI will shell over trillions to settle out of court, because the court damage will be infinitely worse. And that is why I see 2026 as the year the graded driven get to start filling to fill their pockets, because the mindful hurt that is brought to court is as academic as a Likert scale, not a scientific setting among them and the pre-AI setting of Mental harm as ““Mental damage” in court refers to psychological injury, such as emotional trauma or psychiatric conditions, that can be the basis for legal claims, either as a plaintiff seeking compensation or as a criminal defendant. In civil cases, plaintiffs may seek damages for mental harm like PTSD, depression, or anxiety if they can prove it was caused by another party’s negligent or wrongful actions, provided it results in a recognizable psychiatric illness.” So as you see it, is this enough or do you want more? Oh, screw that, I need coffee now and I have a busy day ahead, so this is all you get for now.

Have a great day, I am trying to enjoy Thursday, Vancouver is a lot behind me on this effort. So there is a time scale we all have to adhere to (hidden nudge) as such enjoy the day.

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November 12, 2025 · 14:05

Lost thoughts

The is where I am, lost in thoughts. Drawn between my personal conviction that the AI bubble is real and the set fake thoughts on LinkedIn and Youtube making ‘their’ case on the AI bubble. One is set on thoughts of doubts considering the technology we are currently at, the other thoughts are all fake perceptions by influencers trying to gain a following. So how can any one get any thought straight? Yet in all these there are several people in doubt on their own set (justified) fringes. One of them is ABC who gives us ‘US risks AI debt bubble as China faces its ‘arithmetic problem’, leading analysts warn’ (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-11/marc-sumerlin-federal-reserve-michael-pettis-china/105992570) So in the first setting, what is the US doing with the AI debt? Didn’t they learn their lesson in 2008? In the first setting we get “Mr Sumerlin says he is increasingly worried about a slowing economy and a debt bubble in the artificial intelligence sector.” That is fair (to a certain degree) a US Federal Reserve chair contender has the economic settings, but as I look back to 2008, that game put hundreds of thousands on the brink of desperation and now it isn’t a boom of CDO’s and stocks. Now it is a dozen firms who will demand an umbrella from that same Federal Reserve to stay in business. And Mr. Sumerlin gives us “He is increasingly concerned about a slowdown in the US economy, which is why he thinks the Fed needs to cut interest rates again in December and perhaps a couple more times next year.” I cannot comment on that, but it sounds fair (I lack economic degrees) and outside of this AI bubble setting we are given “US President Donald Trump has recently posted on his social media account about giving all Americans not on high incomes, a $US2,000 tariff “dividend” — an idea which Mr Sumerlin, a one-time economic adviser to former US president George W Bush, said could stoke inflation.” I get it, but it sounds unfair, the idea that an AI bubble is forming is real, the setting that people get a dividend that could stoke inflation might be real (they didn’t get the money yet) but they are unrelated inflation settings and they could give a much larger rise to the dangers of the AI bubble but that doesn’t make it so. The bubble is already real because technology is warped and the class cases we will see coming in 2026 is base on ‘allegedly fraudulent’ sales towards the AI setting and if you wonder what happens, is that these firms buying into that AI solution will cry havoc (no return on AI investment) when that happens and it will happen, of that I have very little doubt. 

So then we get to the second setting and that is the clam that ‘China has an arithmetic problem’, I am at a loss as to what they mean and the ABC explanation is “But if you have a GDP growth target, and you can’t get consumption to grow more quickly, you can’t allow investment to grow more slowly because together they add up to growth. They’re over-invested almost across the board, so policy consists of trying to find out which sectors are least likely to be harmed by additional over-investment.”

Professor Pettis said that, to curry favour with the central government, local governments had skewed over-investment into areas such as solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles and other industries deemed a priority by Beijing.” This kinda makes sense to me, but as I see it, that is an economic setting, not an AI setting. What I think is happening that both USA and China have their own bubble settings and these bubbles will collide in the most unfortunate ways possible. 

But there is also a hindsight. As I see it Huawei is chasing their own AI dream in a novel way that relies on a mere fraction of what the west needs and as I see it, they will be coming up short soon, a setting that Huawei is not facing at present and as I see it, they will be rolling out their centers in multiple ways when the western settings will be running out of juice (as the expression goes). 

Is this going to happen? I think so, but it depends on a number of settings that have not played out yet, so the fear is partially too soon and based on too little information. But on the side I have been powering my brain to another setting. As time goes I have ben thinking through the third Dr. Strange movie and here I had the novel idea which could give us a nice setting where the strain is between too rigid and too flexible and it is a (sort of) stage between Dr. Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch) and Baron Mordo (Chiwetel Ejiofor) the idea was to set the given stage of being too rigid (Mordo) against overly flexible (Strange) and in-between are the settings of Mordo’s African village and as Mordo is protecting them we see the optional settings that Kraven (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) get involved and that gets Dr. Strange in the mix. The nice setting is that neither is evil, they tend to fight evil and it is the label that gets seen. Anyway that was a setting I went through this morning. 

You might wonder why I mentioned this. You see, Bubbles are just as much labels as anything and it becomes a bubble when asset prices surge rapidly, far exceeding their intrinsic value, often fueled by speculation and investor orgasms. This is followed by a sharp and sudden market crash, or “burst,” when prices collapse, leading to significant rather weighty losses for investors. And they will then cry like little girls over the losses in their wallets. But that too is a label. Just like an IT bubble, the players tend to be rigid and whole focussed on their profits and they tend to go with the ‘roll with it’ philosophy and that is where the AI is at present, they don’t care that the technology isn’t ready yet and they do not care about DML and LLM and they want to program around the AI negativity, but that negativity could be averted in larger streams when proper DML information if given to the customers and they dug their own graves here as the customer demands AI, they might not know what it is (but they want it) and they learned in Comic Books what AI was, and they embrace that. Not the reality given by Alan Turing, but what Marvel fed them through Brainiac. And there is a overlap of what is perceived and what is real and that is what will fuel the AI bubble towards implosion (a massive one) and I personally reckon that 2026 will fuel it through the class actions and the beginning is already here. As the Conversation hands us “Anthropic, an AI startup founded in 2021, has reached a groundbreaking US$1.5 billion settlement (AU$2.28 billion) in a class-action copyright lawsuit. The case was initiated in 2024 by novelist Andrea Bartz and non-fiction writers Charles Graeber and Kirk Wallace Johnson.” Which we get from ‘An AI startup has agreed to a $2.2 billion copyright settlement. But will Australian writers benefit?’ (At https://theconversation.com/an-ai-startup-has-agreed-to-a-2-2-billion-copyright-settlement-but-will-australian-writers-benefit-264771) less then 6 weeks ago. And the entire AI setting has a few more class actions coming their way. So before you judge me on being crazy (which might be fair too) the news is already out there, the question is what lobbyists are quieting down the noise because that is noise according to their elected voters. You might wonder how one affect the other. Well, that is a fair question, but it hold water, as these so called AI (I call them Near Intelligent Parses, or NIP) require training materials and when the materials are thrown out of the stage, there is no learning and no half baked AI will holds its own water and that is what is coming. 

A simple setting that could be seen by anyone who saw the technology to the degree it had to. Have a great day this mid week day.

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