Tag Archives: Houthi

November 13, 2024 · 22:13

Trials of a madman

Something made me think of King George III today. He was known as the mad king. For me it wasn’t what I knew, but it was the view thrusted on me by Nigel Hawthorne who played the Madness of King George. He got assistance by Helen Mirren, Ian Holm and Rupert Everett. What mattered is that this view gave me the rest of the setting. You see the Kyiv Independent (at https://kyivindependent.com/for-2nd-day-straight-russias-reported-losses-in-ukraine-surge-to-record-levels/) gave me ‘For 2nd day straight, Russia’s reported losses in Ukraine surge to record levels’ now, war is indiscriminate for the living. The living are merely people who haven’t died yet and War in any form relishes death above all other currencies. What got to me was “This surpasses the previous record of 1,770 set just the day before. The total figure stands at 712,610.”

We are also given “In a bid to regain control, Russia has deployed 50,000 troops, including soldiers from North Korea, to the Kursk region.” I tend to ask Ares for advice on these matters and he gives me that it will merely take an additional 17 days for them all to be slaughtered. The Koreans are out of their element and that implies an increasing amount of miscommunication between the Russians and Koreans will increase the rate at which their bodies and souls become separated. This reflects on ‘the Madness of King George’ as King George should have been able to see that America was lost to him, and he gave the order to battle for America. He of course didn’t count on the French who liked England to be weaker. Russia is making a generic same setting using Koreans, mercenaries, Nepali forces (about 200 of them), Serbians as well as some Bosnians. It seems that the fifth largest army is no longer depending on its 1.15 million active-duty personnel and close to two million reservists. They are willing to let the other people swallow the bullets meant for Russian forces. Yet the larger setting is ignored. Are they setting a stage where they hope that the others will swallow bullets until the Ukrainians run out of ammo? Do you remember these arrogant Russian media types claiming it was a mere 2 days exercise? We are in day 994 now and there is no letting up. Even more so, Russia has lost territory to the Ukrainian forces. There is no way that the top of the Kremlin does not see that. Lets be clear, the high command of the Kremlin is as able as most of the NATO countries and they see these numbers too. More important, they also see that Russia is now indebted to North Korea now. If someone would have told them in 2000 that this would happen a mere 24 years later, they would have howled with laughter (and rightfully so). We now see that Russian logistics are a mess, Russian hardware is failing all over the place in their own biosphere. These machines are not able to withstand the Russian conditions, a first setting that would have been required. As such, what mess is Russia in? Oh, and before you think this is the larger part, you would be wrong. The larger part are the 18750 lost drones. The cheapest military drone is about $700K, making this an effort to tap the vein at $13,000,000,000. One element is costing them 13 billion and counting. The second is 20350 pieces of artillery, wanna guess how cheap they are? And replacing them is a costly and time consuming issue. The Russian army is about to be a mere shadow of an empty egg shell. That setting was 850 days in the making and the Kremlin let it all happen. There is no loyalty towards Putin, as I see it these generals are letting this happen to the Russian population. Why? This is not some ego setting. I have never seen an ego letting this happen to 712610 fellow citizens. I get it, if you are under attack this could happen, but Russia instigated this attack and there lies the crunch. In other news Lord Hades is welcoming over 725000 souls into his domain. As I see it he is happy and Ares is merely mesmerised by the utter stupidity of people. 

We are also given “Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that as”tens of thousands of enemy soldiers from the best Russian shock units” are aiming to push Ukrainian forces out of the Russian enclave, raising concerns of a significant escalation in the war.” It is a thought that makes sense, but the other side is equally possible. If President elect Trump lets this sail, it would take the better part of two decades for the Russian forces to be anywhere near to a threat to NATO and other parties that rely on President elect Trump. In this I oppose the view by Aljazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/6/australia-spy-chief-says-west-faces-new-russia-china-iran-n-korea-axis) where we are given ‘Australia spy chief says West faces new Russia, China, Iran, N Korea ‘axis’’, I get that we are given “Andrew Shearer, said on Wednesday that the strategic impact of the emerging axis, with China and Russia at its core, had been underestimated.” As I see it, the Ukrainian offensive with Russia, North Korean and Iran is a bit of a sizzler. As Iranian drones are dealt with the weaknesses are exposed making it easier for Israel and NATO allies to create counter measures. China will keep its distance as it would be tactically sound. Iran as it loses its proxies through Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthi become close to powerless. At this foundation China prefers to stand alone, with NATO allies contributing to this violent settlement, China gets a real chance to look at what their optional opponent is capable of. And with China leading an economic windfall in several places, it can afford to wait. Whatever Russia and China deal we are given, until I have investigated the source of the intelligence, I merely see that an old premise becomes optional. It comes from James Grady who also wrote six days of the Condor. This story showed us the setting of a China stage (in Montana if I remember correctly). They spoke about something called ‘Gamaljoen’, it I remember this correctly (from Dutch). A person who through attachments was ‘made’ important and that person created importance by making the connections more important than they were. The person was not that important in the end, but the intelligence network wasted resources and time to learn this. It is entirely possible that China is now employing this setting and others like Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu are voicing this setting. In the meantime (as I personally see it) China seems more clever that this and they are unwilling to claim any stake in this lose-lose battle that it represents. This is rather nasty news for Sergei Shoigu, but there it is.

Are these truly the trials of a madman? In this I accept that I could be the madman, but see at what has happened in the last 925 days, am I that wrong? 

Oh and if the Koreans are up to it, cook a decent mean for the Russians. If the South Korean kitchen is anything to go by, they could use a proper meal. In the realm of Hades those without honour feast on the bones of whomever they slay. You can ask Ares, he can usually be found in the northern part of the Ancient Agora of Athens. Hades can be found in the palace of Tartarus, getting there is however quite the challenge. The Myrmidon tend to make short work of trespassers.

So there is my happy moment of the day, you have a nice day too.

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November 11, 2024 · 18:19

The unspoken truth

That is a setting we relish and fear. There is no escaping it. When some people relish the setting of total freedom, they also fear how some people might abuse that same level of freedom. We applaud the freedom of speech, but we also fear the people that abuse it, like ‘Just Stop Oil’ for example. There was an advertisement the other day. The setting was an art exhibit and two “oilers” step up to defile a work of art. Then we see a middle aged man walk up to them and shoot them in the head, a simple execution. And for a lot of them (including me) there was a sense of calm, a satisfying feeling. These abusers of ‘freedom’ were dealt with. The future innocent art was saved. The art defilers were dealt with. That is the consequence of ‘freedom of speech’, you need to be held accountable. It refers to the very beginning of my blog. On June 19th 2012 I wrote ‘The accountability act – 2015’ in this I wrote “Why 2015? Well an act like this does not grow out of a goose feather and ink jar over night. If we think of a law that could make a real change, and would be a real stop to some of the acts of greed, then it will take time and a lot of effort too.” I gave the powers that could be 3 years to get their act together. As far as I know they never did. And this reverts to a new case, an act that happened that happened on 7 October 2023. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4vw1l8xvdo) gave us ‘Gaza’s top Islamic scholar issues fatwa criticising 7 October attack’ where we see “Professor Dr Salman al-Dayah, a former dean of the Faculty of Sharia and Law at the Hamas-affiliated Islamic University of Gaza, is one of the region’s most respected religious authorities, so his legal opinion carries significant weight among Gaza’s two million population, which is predominantly Sunni Muslim.” 

The world no matter how it is tweaked by the greed driven need for digital dollars, has had enough of the media at large. There is a (seemingly) staged setting that the world of Sunni Islam is seeing the fallout the world is having. It is happening in nearly all countries in the world. Shia Islam has embraced Terrorism in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Gaza (Hamas) and Yemen (Houthi) and the world is basically fed up with this path. Now we see the BBC story and there is a chance that Sunni Islam is isolating Shia Islam and this stage could be used to isolate and invalidate Iran. So as we are given “A fatwa is a non-binding Islamic legal ruling from a respected religious scholar usually based on the Quran or the Sunnah – the sayings and practices of the Prophet Muhammad. Dr Dayah’s fatwa, which was published in a detailed six-page document, criticises Hamas for what he calls “violating Islamic principles governing jihad”.” There is a chance that the Gazan population have had enough of Hamas to the larger degree and this paper might push them to the curve of decisions. Lets see the impact On October 10th we were given “An estimated 75,000 tonnes of explosives have been dropped on Gaza with experts predicting it could take years to clear the debris amounting to more than 42 million tonnes, which is also rife with unexploded bombs. Gaza’s Media Office estimates direct damage caused by Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip at $33bn.” Now as I personally see it, the Gaza Media Office is not impartial and their data is debatable. But we also get from Unitar on September 30th we were given “Those 66% of damaged buildings in the Gaza Strip account for 163,778 structures in total. This includes 52,564 structures that have been destroyed, 18,913 severely damaged, 35,591 possibly damaged structures and 56,710 moderately affected.” I feel that this needs to be scrutinised to a much larger degree. The media uses it for digital dollars, they are willing to obfuscate the data as much as they can, but clarity could resolve a lot of issues and Dr Dayah’s fatwa could be a first step to do just that. For the people in Gaza it is imperative that they get clarity. Hamas will not give that. How many people were living in these 163,788 buildings? And this Fatwa was the one thing Iran did not count on. The Iranians are in a bind. They opened the door for Israel to attack them directly, attack their oil reserves. The oil reserves enable the terrorist acts of Iran and when these are gone Iran is in a stale mate with no option but to handover all they thought they gained. The first being the isolation of three terrorist organisation. It will isolate Iran to the largest of degrees and with that gone so do their ‘allies’ China, India and Russia. Russia might hold on as they have other needs, but without oil India and China are pretty much out. It is my personal view on the matter, however this could start a new wave. One that invalidates Iran and give the stability and powers for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to create a new foundation of stability. And lets be clear (and optionally honest) do you really want Iran, the country that embraced terrorism for decades to the largest degree at that table?

This is the setting we are pushed into and lets all hope that it works out for the best. Have a great Monday.

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November 6, 2024 · 00:24

iRan is not an Apple product

There is a larger setting in the world (predominantly the middle east). We are given by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3yqzx72zno) ‘Iran’s supreme leader says enemies will receive ‘crushing response’’. I left it to the left at first (three days ago) for the reason that the entire Iran debacle is like hauling water to the sea. Where the text starts with “The US and Israel “will definitely receive a crushing response”, Iran’s supreme leader has said, following an Israeli attack on Iran a week ago.” It sounds nice, but Iran is limited to deliver attacks through terrorist fractions. It is too scared to attack directly. In the beginning it was about deniability, but that is gone now and Iran is on the verge of be labelled “a terrorist nation” by pretty much all nations. And it is scared of that as such it is trying to kiss up to Antonio Guterres. Yet Israel decided on October 13th “Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz reinforced on Sunday his decision to declare U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres persona non grata over what he described as a failure to condemn Iran’s missile attack and antisemitic and anti-Israel conduct.” There are other nations thinking that Guterres has outlived its usefulness as a UN tool (I speculate that Ukraine is one of them). So when we see the BBC give us “The threat comes as Iran assesses whether and how to respond to Israel’s attack last month, that Iran said killed four soldiers, which was in retaliation for an Iranian missile attack against Israel earlier in October.” There is only so much Iran can get away with and whilst the US is begging to leave the oil fields alone (they get a slice of that revenue I reckon). Iran is now losing whatever options they had. As I see it Robert F. Worth said it best “‘The Iranian Period Is Finished’. Hezbollah’s losses have led some in Lebanon to imagine a future without it.” You see Hamas might seen shelter behind civilian bodies there, but Hezbollah is merely a small part of the 5.5 million population and Israel has had enough. 

Now that U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has been called a persona non grata, the options for the UN will diminish a lot more and Hezbollah has none left. Their only option is for Iran to engage in a full scale war and Iran is hesitant to do so. With the attacks on Saudi Arabia (via Houthi proxy) they only stand the smallest of chances if other Arabian nations support them and those nations are not willing to do that (as I personally see it). And the issue continues (and worsens). The BBC also reported “Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” is an alliance of Tehran-backed groups that include Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and well-armed groups in Iraq and Syria. Most have been designated as terrorist entities by some Western states.” Let me be clear, they merely voiced the words of Iran and there is the problem. Do you think that the BBC would have given Germany the ‘respect’ by calling it the third kingdom? (1933 – 1945) And the larger option becomes that ‘their’ axis of resistance is in shambles. The Hamas terrorists are hiding behind the population they claim to protect. Hezbollah terrorists are relying on exploding pagers and the rest of Hezbollah has no clue what to do and Houthi terrorists are in a dangerous position. Lloyds reported yesterday “Houthis’ reported to be earning an estimated $180m a month from illegal safe-transit fees paid by unnamed shipping agents to secure safe passage through the Red Sea” as well as a report from ynet news that ‘Houthis turn to social media to raise funds for war’, this tells me that they are now cash strapped and here the UN is close to useless. They might talk a nice talk but it seems to be finally falling on deaf ears. In the meantime a report a mere 15 hours ago gives us that Houthi forces are trying to align themselves with Al-Qaeda forces. This happened whilst one source gives us “the two terrorist groups agreed to put aside their differences and focus on weakening the Yemeni government” the beginning of all kinds of escalations. And that is the setting for Iran, or as the American voices state “Become Al-Qaeda’s bitch or fall alone”, I cannot vouch for that, but Iran depended on deniability and now that this is gone Iran faces the reality of going to war. So how long until that goes wrong? In all these settings the United Nations might be out of options as well (until a new CEO is elected). You see on October 24th we got to hear “UN Secretary-General António Guterres reiterated in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that his country’s on-going invasion of Ukraine violates the United Nations Charter and international law.” ‘Reiterated’? This has been going on for 10 years and now we see ‘reiterated’? I reckon that the insertion of North Korean troops is making this a larger stage. Basically it is now a world war. You see, there is no real definition, one that aligns with todays setting of “In order to qualify as a world war, at least one of three criteria must be met: the conflict takes place between multiple nations across the globe, battles are fought in many different locations, and the war must be fought against great powers with significantly advanced technology.” It now involves Russia, Ukraine and North Korea. At this point I believe that the setting of a World War is reached. You see one criteria was met and this reflects back unto Iran too. Because in this setting, Iran might be getting cozy with Russia, but Russia has its own brand of troubles and that is setting the grind in another direction. As such Iran loses whatever friends they thought they had. As such we are given “Saudi Arabia, Jordan and United Arab Emirates unite against Iran, with support from the United States.” A statement that is presumptuous, but lacks clear evidence (as I see it). It is likely to be true, but I have not seen that evidence. And in this setting Iran has two options, the first is to engage is all out war, the other is to drop the terrorist organisations Hezbollah and Houthi, leaving them to fend for themselves. 

I could be wrong but this is as I see it the political chessboard where we have three players. I would personally see a different stage where the board is used with the chess pieces of Chinese chess. It would be a decent challenge to get any player to actually win whilst the other two are hacking on the pieces and that applies to all sides in this equation. If we get a ‘dopey to dollars’ equation I reckon that Israel has a lead because Iran is about to lose two thirds of its ‘axis’ and that results in less pieces to move around and more exposure of its own pieces. And the number one weakness for Iran is that they cannot move their oil fields or oil infrastructure. That is the bottleneck for Iran, and they have less and less options for securing that financial option.

As I personally see it Iran is about to become ‘I ran’ and they now have no place to run to.  

Have a great day.

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October 28, 2024 · 07:43

The setting of coins

The BBC had an interesting article yesterday. I was drawn between two settings. There is nothing wrong with the article. It is a point of view and anyone has that right. My setting was that the dimensionality is wrong. Some see Iran as a wimpy weasel, others as a weaselly wimp. I think they are both at the same time. That is as far as the difference is seen. The BBC in the shape of Jeremy Bowen hands us ‘Iran faces hard choices between risks of escalation or looking weak’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2742rynqgo). I don’t think they look weak, they are weak. When you have to rely on terrorists to bring your message across, you are weak. And the setting that this brings is that a stabilising effect that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia brought was torpedoed (for a lack of a better word) by Iran. Iran is so afraid to be the trivialising party in the middle east that they rely on three terrorist entities. Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi forces. 

We are given “They must decide on the least bad of a series of difficult choices. At one end of the spectrum is hitting back with another wave of ballistic missiles. Israel has already threatened to retaliate again if that happens” And the options of a bad series of choices is ‘encouraged’ by the west. Politico brought me this month the setting of loopholes that were created to enable other players to sell Russian oil, all legal (which is why we call it a loophole), yet this wasn’t created for Russia. Russia got to exploit the loophole the west made for Iran (my presumptuous thinking). Do you really think that Iran could have played the game this long if they didn’t have that loophole?

We are then given “Iran’s official media in the hours before and after Israel’s attacks carried defiant statements that, at face value, suggest the decision to respond had already been taken. Its language resembles Israel’s, citing its right to defend itself against attack. But the stakes are so high that Iran might decide to walk its threats back” which sounds nice on paper, but the reality is that this weasel was hiding behind three terrorist organisation. Hamas has now been bombed back into the stone age and their leaders are hiding in Doha, Qatar (according to some sources). As far as I see it, Gaza did this to themselves. Hezbollah decided to rely on pagers and the top of Hezbollah basically messaged themselves to death. That is number two down. The assault was so complete that pretty much the entire top of Hezbollah blew themselves up. Who ever didn’t do this will follow soon I reckon. Then there is just the Houthi brach left. I reckon that the next 3-5 years amounts to Iran calling that branch with requests for the good of Shia Islam. Not sure how they will bring that news, but it is likely to take on that form. All the money that Iran invested would now be asked to validate through actions. Hamas has seemingly lost around 50% of its fighting force and the rest is dubious of continuing and finding real solutions for their family. Hezbollah has no top, this means that Iran needs to put advisors on the ground, or lose whatever they had left. And the Houthi’s will go in a new direction. As I personally see it, with the recruitment of child soldiers they are taking on the direction Hamas had and as some drone technology that evolved in the Ukraine, we will see soon a new frontier develop where drones can be sent to a generic location and start auto targeting a scope of realistic issues. There is every consideration that whatever drone abilities the Saudi government has will soon gain serious teeth. 

We are then given “Iran’s foreign ministry invoked its right to self defence “as enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter”. A statement said Iran believed it was both entitled and obligated to respond to foreign acts of aggression”, this sounds nice, but Iran played the terrorist card and has done so for years, which makes its statement baseless. We can see America ‘pleading’ with Israel not to hit the oil reserves and the loophole for oil makes it a desired move, but Israel has its own concerns. These terrorist actions are funded by Iran and defund their oil is a tactical move to temporary stop funding, making the tactic valid. As we see “The men in Tehran thought they had a better idea than all-out war. Instead, Iran used the allies and proxies in its so-called “axis of resistance” to attack Israel. The Houthis in Yemen blocked and destroyed shipping in the Red Sea. Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon forced at least 60,000 Israelis from their homes.” We are confronted with the harsh reality that Iran is considering extreme options and that is the final straw for Israel. They could bring to bare 125 missiles on Iranian oil fields and with that Iran will have no more options. A setting that was accelerated since 1979 comes to a stop when the oil becomes to tainted to be sold, it will be the oil that glows in the dark. And the world is fearing that moment. Too many stakeholders with their slice of pie that came from the oil loophole will end and there will be a lot of voices trying to delay this point. On the upside it would enable Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to set some solid work to make these two the solidifying hub of international cooperation on the Arabian peninsula. 

The largest question for the world will be what will Iran decide and they could find a way to make hay out of that. Because any escalation will lead to the end of Iran, a path that started 6000 years ago. It is anyones guess if the Iran of today realises that they are out of survivable options. I see three paths and two remain silent because it amounts (without evidence) to fear mongering. And I am not inclined to openly support that view. The play nice card sounds nice, but it would require Iran to disband sections of the IRGC as well as stop supporting terrorism. Will Iran see that light? When people have been on that violent streak for decades, it is hard to stop. I get that, but does Iran have any resolution left? Empty threats will not bring home the veal as they say.

Well, it’s Monday now, so have a great new day. 

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October 19, 2024 · 17:26

Kettle, pot and colouring

Yup, that is the setting for today. I saw the news yesterday or the day before and it angered me. The article (at https://cpj.org/2024/10/saudi-arabia-sentences-cartoonist-mohammed-al-ghamdi-to-23-years/) from the CPJ (committee to protect journalists) is as misguided as it is hypocritical. In the first instance I do not know Mohammed al-Ghamdi, I never saw his cartoons or red anything from him. As far as I am concerned as long as the CPJ does not hold its western journalists and editors up to any kind of standard, it needs to shut up. Yesterday I touched on the Politico article regarding Prince Khalid bin Bandar al Saud and it opened up some issues for me. There is more, the media neglects the interesting ‘good’ Saudi Arabia does and trivialises the harm that Saudi Arabia gets from Houthi terrorists. As such I say that the CPJ needs to shut up.

We are given that “a Saudi cartoonist for the Qatar-based Lusail newspaper, who was sentenced on an undisclosed date in 2024 to 23 years in prison on charges that his cartoons were sympathetic to Qatar and insulted the Saudi government” Saudi Arabia has laws, they might not be the laws the west heralds, but this is a Saudi event. I might not agree, but if I am in Saudi Arabia I would have to adhere to Saudi Laws and there is the chance that my articles fall in bad waters with Saudi Arabia. I do not know as I am not privy to those laws. As far as I know I never known and intentionally insulted anyone in the Saudi government (I might be wrong in this).

Countries have laws, the west (Commonwealth and Europe) for the most on the issue of freedom of speech and as such I tend to use that freedom of speech, yet in that instance I try to maintain a civil tongue. And when Charlie Hedbo was killed, I also supported France, I stood at a vigil in Sydney. I was not aware to the stage that drove someone to kill Charlie Hedbo, but I was in agreement that we had to protest this because Charlie Hedbo was not anti-Muslim. He drew on several occasions images that would have offended the church (the Vatican), as such he was equally ‘diplomatic’ on all faiths. 

Yet this is not about Charlie Hedbo, this is about the double standard the CPJ uses and until they hold western media to a serious level of account, they need to put up or shut up. 

This is pretty much it. I did not check some of the claims made and I am not saying these claims weren’t true. We get “It is time to break this longstanding pattern of imprisoning journalists. Saudi authorities must release al-Ghamdi and drop all charges against him” and I am not opposing this, but I find it interesting that numbers and reasons for imprisonment aren’t given. It this is about less then 5 journalists, it seems a trivial matter (compared to Turkey and a few other places). And lets not forget these Saudi Laws are all documented and as such these ‘journalists’ (optionally a mere one cartoonist) might have decided to leave the country, was that done? 

The CPJ gives us that 50 Journalists were killed in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory in 2024. So, where is the stink on these 50 journalists? Oh, and why is it “Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory” and why do we not see the segregation between “West Bank and the Gaza Strip” and “Israel”? It was a simple setting, but the CPJ seems to use a simplistic brush for that. And between 2018 and 2024 we see merely one seemingly killed and I raised plenty of articles between 2018 and 2024 shedding doubt on that setting. Another article gives us that 10 people were imprisoned all whilst the 2023 numbers have a top 10 (Saudi Arabia wasn’t there) and the top is China with 44 imprisoned, Russia with 22, Iran with 17, and Turkey with 13 imprisoned. Yet in all of these cases, we see an absence of reasons and there is the issue. The (western) press has in the last 10 years lost pretty much all credibility, as such a reason for imprisonment is required. I have an issue with the CPJ because a population with less credibility than a drug pusher in a school yard has several issues and I do not think the CPJ is in a position to demand any kind of charge drop until the status quo of journalists is re-established with a level of credibility that most of us find acceptable. The chase for digital dollars in the last decade pretty much diminished their right for a ‘protected’ status. 

People might not like my view on the matter, but that is my preview on the matter. Perhaps the CPJ would like to rewrite the article in something more palatable?

Have a great Saturday.

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September 24, 2024 · 22:59

Two sides of technology

There are always two sides on any technology. The question is whether they are aligned or not. The first story is found at (at https://www.edgemiddleeast.com/ai/tsmc-and-samsung-consider-100-billion-uae-chip-projects) where the Edge Middle East gives us ‘TSMC and Samsung Consider $100 Billion UAE Chip Projects’, it all comes across as straight forward. We are given “Semiconductor giants TSMC and Samsung are in early talks to establish massive chip-making facilities in the UAE, potentially marking a significant expansion in global production.” It seems to me that this is a straight forward option, especially for the UAE. We are also given “develop potential chip projects in the United Arab Emirates, with investments that could exceed $100 billion. The discussions, which are still in the early stages, were first reported by The Wall Street Journal on Sunday” and this article ends with “Should these plans move forward, they would mark a significant milestone in the UAE’s efforts to position itself as a global technology hub.” The second article was initially from the Financial Times (but they are behind a paywall), as such I I cannot give the link, but the headline reads ‘UAE president meets Joe Biden in push for more US AI technology’ where we are given “Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan seeks to formalise fledgling partnership between both countries” as well as “The United Arab Emirates’ leader met US President Joe Biden in Washington on Monday to advance artificial intelligence co-operation as the Gulf nation tries to secure easier access to US-made technology” and “The UAE is one of the US’s most important allies in the Middle East, but relations have been strained at times in recent years. Talks for a formal security pact with Washington have stalled, and Abu Dhabi was infuriated by what it saw as a lukewarm US response to attacks on the UAE’s capital by Houthi rebels from Yemen in 2022.” This is a dangerous time for America. The trivialisation of the Houthi terrorists will cost America dearly, it has before and it will cost America more than they imagined. You see, as I personally see it. There is a bigger fish. The option that China will play nice with Taiwan when there is a larger part of the $100,000,000,000 could give China the edge they need. And in this setting China will have several bonus options that would fall away from American. That alone would entice China to play nice with Taiwan to a whole larger degree. Is it viable? I honestly cannot say as the media is massively anti-China. Ask Huawei is you doubt my view on this issue. 

How could this happen?
There are several options, but if I were a betting man China would offer Taiwan independence UNDER China. Would Taiwan accept this? I don’t know, but if China would enable a diplomatic solution via the United Arab Emirates it could happen. China is more interested in the collapse of America sooner and will hand an independence ‘option’ to Taiwan. And the setting with Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan gives China a larger option to manouver. It is my believe that the Biden administration is driven to not make my speculation happen and for that it needs a slice of the UAE AI business and America will offer whatever it has to to make their entrance a done deal. On the positive side if Microsoft gets involved there is every chance that their affinity to mediocrity will blow up in their faces and the American stance becomes a whole lot weaker. This is not ‘fear mongering’, this is merely the view I have on Microsoft and the blunders they have made in the recent past. The UAE embraces perfection, as such Amazon (AWS) or Google would be a much better fit. But this is not about bashing Microsoft (it is fun though). The AI investments that could be coming the way of the UAE, there is a larger field. We hear all about ‘AI’ and the developers (Amazon, Apple, Google, et al) but most forget that Huawei has its own system. The FusionMind AI platform. I don’t know how good it is. Whatever the media tells us, once Huawei gets to demonstrate their system. No matter what others think, if the UAE considers it good enough, the American race for revenues goes in the wrong direction (for America that is). Don’t ask me how good or how bad the Huawei system is, because I have never seen it, but I know about it and the media is doing its best to ignore Huawei, but I am not convinced that this is a good move to make. The IT people (like me) want to assist people with solutions that WORK. I do not think it is a good idea to ignore the Huawei system. And I believe that neither Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates are ignoring the Huawei technology side of it all. For me the larger setting isn’t merely what works, but it is the dim witted view of accusing Huawei whilst not offering ANY clear evidence. That is the larger stage and if Huawei, or the Chinese government can convince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan to allow Huawei to present their case, American will have additional worries to deal with. I personally think that Google AI with Mandiant would be personally the better option. That is merely because I have have limited exposure to AWS and no exposure to Amazon security solutions. So my view is slightly biased. In all this, Google needs to convince the UAE that they have what the UAE needs. After that Saudi Arabia should be shown these solutions too (likely they have already seen them).

When we see these sides, one side is the technology, the other side is the software and when we optionally see these chip solutions the bigger winner becomes whomever sets the premise of their software to the hardware provided. I personally hope for Google (I am biased here), but the end game is nowhere near concluded at present. I reckon the Biden administration is hoping for a memorandum of intent, but that is something we might see on Wednesday. So keep looking.

It is almost Wednesday here and Vancouver is following in 18 hours. So anything is possible. Have a great day.

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September 4, 2024 · 19:21

The cake is in the oven

That is the setting we face as we see the article on MEMRI (at https://www.memri.org/reports/article-saudi-government-daily-saudi-arabia-has-legitimate-right-develop-nuclear-weapons). I would be in favour of this. The speaker sheikh Muhammad Al-Husseini, (Lebanese in origin) is unknown to me. He also has Saudi citizenship. He wrote “Saudi Arabia has “a legitimate right” to develop and attain nuclear weapons, and in fact has “an urgent need” to do so in light of the growing threats it is facing and Iran’s rapid progress towards nuclear capabilities. Establishing a nuclear balance of deterrence in the region, he says, will enhance regional stability and cause the kingdom’s enemies to think twice before taking aggressive measures against it.” I personally agree with that point of view. Iran has become too unstable and too aggressive against the state of Israel as well as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The second front Iran manages through Houthi forces and there is too big a chance that they will have nuclear potential. It was a setting that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad catered to in his presidency (2005-2013), it was then that Saudi Arabia had to cloak itself with a nuclear deterrent. As things go now, it might not have another option. Most of us do not want this and it was clear that Saudi Arabia didn’t want that either, yet Muhammad Al-Husseini makes a strong point. Establishing a nuclear balance of deterrence  might be unavoidable. I want to make this clear. In all matters regarding this path I would happily be proven wrong. I certainly hope it isn’t required, yet in this setting we are all reacting to the acts of Iran and that is a problem. With their approach to the state of Israel, Saudi Arabia might not be left with an option. It is better that Iran clearly knows that any attack to Saudi Arabia will have a nightmare scenario as a response. 

sheikh Muhammad Al-Husseini then gives us “Iran is working to advance its nuclear program, and is apparently approaching its goal. In light of the concerns about developments in the nuclear policy of the region’s, Saudi Arabia, which does not currently possess nuclear weapons, is entitled to discuss this issue.” I agree on this. In this light when the problems act in Iran, Saudi Arabia better have options of any kind. He ends it all with “At the same time, there is a need for prudent management of the potential dangers associated with nuclear capability” he is right again. The problem that I see is that Saudi Arabia does it in reaction to their current enemies. This take the yellow cake in directions we do not like. As I see it, the first danger I see is that the Houthis get their hands on a dirty bomb equivalent and launches it on a tactical target. Iran will state: ‘We know nothing, we never handed them anything’ and then point they finger at any would be additional target that they hope Saudi Arabia will resolve for them. This will massively increase tensions in the middle east. I would hope there would be a way to stop this, but too many weapons deliveries have gotten through to Houthi forces, so I do not think this path will be stopped any day soon. The idea that third parties will use this to set the hammer against Saudi Arabia is not without fear, the point that there are parties who will ‘act’ to get in the good graces of Iran is a real danger and they will see a mere weapon shipment to Houthi forces. That is the real danger. The acts to appease Iranian political players. There are few enemies to pick from and whomever sides with Iran on this better be ready to pay a hefty price here.

There is no need to say who, there are too many options and scenarios. But that setting does plays towards to voice that Muhammad Al-Husseini is raising. The problem here is that this voice and my view could be regarded as fear-mongering. I get that, but does Saudi Arabia have any option to avoid this? The larger problem is not Saudi Arabia, it is Iran. The Gaza tensions as well as the standing against the state of Israel is becoming a worrying setting. Then there are the settings that complicate matters, namely Syria and Hezbollah. Any of them could become a nuclear parts courier. As such there are several ways that these materials could find their way to Houthi hands and that is the real scenario. Iran pretending to have clean hands whilst Saudi Arabia get the damage and the political fallout of any nuclear strike. As such I agree with Muhammad Al-Husseini that there is a essential need for Saudi Arabia to have a nuclear deterrent in place. My original design was not meant against Russia, but against Iran who had Russian equipment. It was meant to get the plant in Sirik to melt down setting nuclear options back for at least 1-2 decades. These things are expensive and a new site would set a lot of markers back as well as the essential need to increase security to almost 5 fold which leaves them largely without troops. Al that from a simple snow globe, how sick was my creativity? 

But overall Muhammad Al-Husseini is right, Saudi Arabia needs a deterrent. Iran thinks it can play with others, but at some point the others need to react and that is where disaster could strike. 

Have a great day preferably not glowing in the dark.

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August 10, 2024 · 13:06

A little late aren’t you?

It was the setting I was waiting for. The US has given in to its economic pressures and possibly the fear that China might get to much of a headway. Reuters this morning gives me (and other readers) at https://www.reuters.com/world/us-lift-ban-offensive-weapons-sales-saudi-arabia-sources-say-2024-08-09/ the headline ‘US to lift ban on offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia’, which sounds nice but is possibly a little late. Colonel Turki Al-Maliki a member of the Saudi airforce had given us the goods, going all the way back to February 2021. Reuters reported on these attacks in March 2021. In this Reuters is important as they give us ‘Houthis have fired 430 missiles, 851 drones at Saudi Arabia since 2015 – Saudi-led coalition’, the setting is important because civilian targets were aimed at by Houthis amongst them were Saudi airports and structures. So the blockage by the US was weird, especially as the Houthis are a terrorist organisation. So the about turn under the guise of “The Saudis have met their end of the deal, and we are prepared to meet ours”, a little late, isn’t it? But at present the Chinese representatives of parties like the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group is nothing to be sneered at, with the Chengdu J-20 as an optional buy which was (allegedly) discussed at the World Defense Show 2024 in February 2024 (a speculation from me) is giving the Chinese hope to gain much more from the American Defence Industry. Should the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia take that offer, the setting would open the doors (for China) to larger possibilities in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates as well. The damage to the American Industry could amount to an estimated loss of $30-$50 billion over these three nations alone. Not to mention the lucrative service and consultancy jobs. It would be the first definite slam to the value of the US dollar. China is rearing to take up that option in a heartbeat. I discussed (and partially speculated) this in ‘The next Furlong’ which I wrote on March 10th 2022 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/10/the-next-furlong/), as such I was and am now in a stage to emphasise the term ‘told you so’. This setting was clear then and it is a speculated more clear now when we see “Under U.S. law, major international weapons deals must be reviewed by members of Congress before they are made final. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years, citing issues including the toll on civilians of its campaign in Yemen and a range of human rights concerns.” We are about to go into election mode and some politicians will fear for their job a lot more than the American Economy. As such China has a decent chance to crush the American Defence industry. I doubt they fear the Russian abilities as the Russians are getting clobbered by the 20th largest army in the world. The Ukrainians are still damaging the Russian, even after the Russians bombed Ukraine into the stone age. That is not a good sales talk, especially  with the current Russian losses stated below

As such we can accept the Reuters statement, because of its projected validity, yet the words we are given “Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years”, yet the article doesn’t emphasise the attacks by Houthi’s on Saudi civilian targets, which Colonel Turki Al-Maliki showed many clearly going all the way back to 2021, many articles were drowned out by (speculatively speaking) by anti Muslim and anti Saudi voices. Now that China gets to move into a much stronger position, the American administration is taking the gloves off and do what needed to be done in 2021. I reckon that people like Stephanie Kirchgaessner will possibly raise anonymous sources to throw sand in the cogs of common sense. China will love this as this will enable them to get a squadron on Chengdu J-20 into place and optionally ‘gift’ three service teams in the mix, two for maintenance and one to train  Saudi troops. The losses to America will be vast and it will a long term loss. 

As such I think that they were over 2 years late to the party. The initial transfer settings were optionally carved (I have no clear evidence of this) in the airshows of 2021 by SAMI. That would have been the first introductions of Chinese hardware that was to replace whatever America wasn’t giving them at that time. As I personally see it, it might be too late now. You see the Russian losses as shown above are the second piece of evidence. In that setting Russia is no longer a contender and as they are now ‘acquiring’ missiles from North Korea we see a larger question mark, is it merely the lack of missiles or does Russia have a larger problem. I do not know, but Russia isn’t telling, so we are left to our speculations and the Kursk clambake of 2024 Makes things worse for Russia. And in that setting China gets to be the big winner. OK, I admit, this victory would be largely held by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (and supporting parties).

Have a nice day and feel free to watch American revenues move to the far east.

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July 14, 2024 · 07:21

The Iranian ploy

I saw the article (at https://www.newarab.com/news/houthis-threaten-riyadh-aerial-footage-key-airports) stating ‘Yemen’s Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia with aerial footage of key airports’, the New Arab with the text “The video, titled “Just try it”, contained images of King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, King Fahd International Airport in Damman as well as the ports in Ras Tanura, Jizan and Jeddah” is a possible ploy. I do not doubt that the Houthi’s (with generous support from Iran) is adding a ploy of threats to their limited tactics. It is clear that Houthi forces can bring something to the table, but I believe that this is nothing more than a ploy. A ploy that could have teeth, but I do not have the required contacts or information to see how serious this is. We see an additional setting with “The threat to Saudi Arabia by the Houthis comes amid reports that the government and Houthis failed to strike a fresh prisoner exchange deal”, which is fun because this was a deal between Houthis and the legitimate Yemen government. So this is all about posturing, or is it?

You see, a few hours later I was given through Arab News (at https://arab.news/6p5tn) ‘Iran’s new president vows balance with all countries, warns US his country won’t be pressured’ where Iran apparently made the claim “He looks forward to engaging in constructive dialogue with European countries”, so there is the carrot. Iran needs Saudi Arabia in a holding pattern, whilst Iran ‘appeases’ European nations. So as I see it Houthi forces are still the barking dogs of Iran and Iran needs this, because their support of Hamas will have secondary contemplations by any nation thinking that talking with Iran is a good idea. It has not now or yesterday worked and it will not work tomorrow either. 

As Iran is hiding their hands behind terrorist organisations like Hamas or Houthi forces, we need to be weary that stability in the Middle East requires both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, they have the growing economies, the larger setting for tourism and the options of uniting Arab nations. The problem is that Iran is a problem. They are crying like little girls as they are denied a larger seat at the Arab table. The only small friend that Iran can rely on is Qatar and they have growing issues with Hamas. How that plays out is beyond me but in this setting we have Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman and Iraq. They are all playing nice and as I see it, there is not to much love for Iran in this. Qatar is the one successful nation that has been playing a dangerous game, so what happens with them is up in the air. I reckon that the Houthi’s are set to the threat to Saudi Arabia. In this my feelings are that if one attack on a civilian target is done, the might of the Saudi forces will bluntly retaliate against Houthi forces. This has the one complication that Iran has to either commit or desert Houthi forces. This is the ploy as I see it. Iran cries loudly towards Europeans that they are so willing to discuss peace, but they are under the hammer. It will be something like that. So the Iranian ploy is unlikely to work. Europe has enough problems with Russia and Russia could be of little use to Iran. Russia has only one carrier left and they need it in their Ukrainian tactics. But this is about Iran. They are losing ‘useful’ friends a lot faster than they are happy with. It is in that setting that the Houthi threat is (as I personally see it) an Iranian tactic. 

They have to play nice with some people because they are about to learn the lesson Hector Malot taught us with ‘Sans Famille’ and Iran is rightfully worried. You see when the coins come down Iran will have to put up or shut up and they will lose a lot of face in the entire Middle East, sitting at a table where the stabilising points come from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. That is why (my personal point of view) Iran need Houthi, Hamas and any other player that Iran can place in the field with deniability. It is why I said that whatever Palestine comes through, it will require the eradication of Hamas. Because it will be them who will terrorise the building projects in Saudi Arabia. 

So how can I prove any of this? Well the history of Iran is one. Their actions towards Houthi forces is another and the Iranian actions are right after the threats from Houthi forces. I feel that one ploy is enabling other actions. 

But for the most in this, I am merely speculating. So enjoy this Sunday.

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June 9, 2024 · 22:58

The unspoken call

There was a call in Reuters last week. I had seen it, however I was dealing with the intelligence I was able to lay my hands on. It seems like a simple exercise but it is not. The article (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-experts-urge-all-countries-recognise-palestinian-statehood-2024-06-03/) gives us ‘UN experts urge all countries to recognise Palestinian statehood’, it seems so simple. Yet it is more complex than you think. You see that setting might be acceptable AFTER Hamas has been eradicated and the west knows this. You see Hamas is a one trick pony, it resorts to violence only ad at present it does so through Iranian guidance. If Palestinian statehood is awarded whilst Hamas is still in charge, all bet are off. The west knows this and they don’t like the centrepiece of Arabian stability. There is Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). That one trick pony (Hamas) will come with its new rule. A bigger seat at the Arabian table. When they do not get it Saudi Projects will suffer. The Line, Oxagon, Trojena, Sindalah, Red Sea International Airport, Mukaab, Qiddiya and a few more will subtly be suffering set backs, optional outright sabotage. That would cost Saudi Arabia billions. In addition UAE locations like Dubai and Abu Dhabi will be hit. It will not be some case of speculation, Iran does not like the path Arabia is on. It does not allow any path where they are an inferior setting. And they now have their claws in Hamas and Houthi forces. 

As such Hamas needs to be eradicated. It is simplest if Israel does it. It could do with the win and Saudi hands will remain clean. When Saudi Arabia and the UAE are forced to act the result will be destabilisation for years to come. All what Saudi Arabia had achieved will be for naught. The UAE will likely get a hit on tourism and travel, but there too the impact will be felt. The west likes this. They are trying to rally against China and the Arabian players are part of Brics now, catering options for China. All options are largely lost to the west. So they are now calling to include Palestine into everything. A call that is too rash for words. 

We can think all we can on Palestine, but they let Hamas in and did not do anything about Hamas for 2 decades. Hamas is under their buildings, part of their infrastructure and they have grown the next generation of Palestines to be terrorists too. The west did little to nothing, they figured that Israel would deal with that problem. Now that Israel is, the anti semitic rhetoric is taking global proportions. And the media was quiet for too long on the 120 hostages and they trivialised matters. So now that the gloves come off there will be another setting. If Israel succeeds in eradicating Hamas, statehood for Palestine could follow, yet with a few clauses. Any new Hamas interference will result in economic sanctions. In support of this other economic means will be required. Also Egypt will have to show it hands and allow Palestinians through. You know, I do not think this will happen. Egypt had identified the threat that Hamas and Palestine sets. Why do you think that they put a wall there? No one is questioning that part. It is all about Israel. 

If Israel does not succeed and statehood is awarded to Palestine, Saudi and UAE intelligence will have to beef up operations. Saudi will have a lot more riding on this and whilst there are upsides for Saudi Arabia, the risks are a lot higher. In the mean time Hamas leadership is still comfortable in Qatar and Iran has lines out to them. I wonder what will come to a close first. Israeli patience, of Saudi patience after statehood is awarded. 

In the end part of this is speculation, but the premise is sound and when Iran flexes its financial muscles towards Palestine, Saudi interests in Saudi Arabia will come under pressure, and it will resolved by giving a bigger seat to Hamas, the Iranian tool. A setting that we must avoid, the west especially. The west might no longer be a global strong power, but when chaos hit the Arabian peninsula, only the greed driven parties will see it as a plus point. The rest will suffer the consequences. And in this the media will shrug it off saying they merely reported on it. But the media will be every bit as guilty as anyone else. Even more so as they decided to not inform the public and filter events to what their stakeholders share holders and advertisers required. But the media will not report on that. I wonder why. 

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