Tag Archives: SAMI

August 11, 2024 · 19:40

Setting of the day

On a good day
The Khaleej Times Jost informed me on how a good day comes to pass. Here (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/meet-the-uae-police-officer-who-uncovered-183-money-laundering-cases-in-15-years) we are introduced to Major Saad Ahmed Al Marzooqi. 

The headline ‘Meet the UAE police officer who uncovered 183 money laundering cases in 15 years’. We are also given “He was recently appointed as the first Emirati member of the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) International Cooperation Review Team” and we can be mesmerised, or brag about his abilities, but the numbers imply that he slightly uncovered more than one case a month. There are plenty of police forces all over the world where half of these numbers would imply a stellar career. As we gawk over “exposed 183 money laundering cases that are related to drugs and financial embezzlement. He had also created a database of incidents, which contributed to an increase in convictions from a monthly average of 3 to 14” we need to realise that the increase of 3 to 14 implies that this one person achieved more than any average police station in Europe. 

This is the kind of man the world needs and that will be explained in the next article, because the universe relies on balance and the imbalance we are about to see takes the cake and changes an optional day to night.

On a bad day
Yes like any hero that needs a antagonist to make things interesting, we have Microsoft in two mentions. Now this isn’t directly involving anyone at Microsoft, but the follies are a setting that makes things a lot worse.

First we get Wired (at https://www.wired.com/story/microsoft-copilot-phishing-data-extraction/) who gives us ‘Microsoft’s AI Can Be Turned Into an Automated Phishing Machine’ we get to see “Attacks on Microsoft’s Copilot AI allow for answers to be manipulated, data extracted, and security protections bypassed, new research shows” which is not good, but anything positive can me mauled into a criminal jester for organised crime. The additional “Microsoft raced to put generative AI at the heart of its systems. Ask a question about an upcoming meeting and the company’s Copilot AI system can pull answers from your emails, Teams chats, and files—a potential productivity boon. But these exact processes can also be abused by hackers.

Today at the Black Hat security conference in Las Vegas, researcher Michael Bargury is demonstrating five proof-of-concept ways that Copilot, which runs on its Microsoft 365 apps, such as Word, can be manipulated by malicious attackers, including using it to provide false references to files, exfiltrate some private data, and dodge Microsoft’s security protections.” Now, I haven’t seen this, but Wired has a solid enough level of credibility to not ignore this. And that isn’t all. Bargury gives the world “the ability to turn the AI into an automatic spear-phishing machine. Dubbed LOLCopilot, the red-teaming code Bargury created can—crucially, once a hacker has access to someone’s work email” as I speculatively see it a mediocrity solution to turn the Internet of Things into a machine serving organised crime, optionally the NSA too, well done Microsoft. As I see it, the workload of Major Al Marzooqi would increase fivefold when this hits the open world, actually it already has if I understood the words from Michael Bargury correctly. In this, we optionally an even bigger problem, or at least a lot of corporations will.

You see there is a second message, in this case from Cyber Security News (at https://cybersecuritynews.com/microsoft-entra-id-vulnerability/). They give us ‘Microsoft Entra ID (Azure AD) Vulnerability Let Attackers Gain Global Admin Access’ with the subtext “Security researchers have uncovered vulnerabilities in Microsoft’s Entra ID (formerly Azure Active Directory) dubbed “UnOAuthorized” which could allow unauthorised actions beyond expected controls” Now take these two parts together and the phishing expedition could hit every R&D system on the planet using Azure. I am certain that Microsoft will have some patch coming soon, but in the meantime the bulk of R&D (under Azure) will be vulnerable and approachable by many hacker and especially organised crime, because selling secrets to competitors tends to be a lucrative setting and most corporations aren’t that finicky in acquiring something that raises (and assures) the bonuses of the members of their boardroom. OK, this is speculative on my side, but wonder what some will do to get the upper hand in business, especially if there is a bonus raise involved. 

I wish I had a solution, but my personal feeling is that Microsoft has too many holes, loops and a whole rage of other issues and switching to either AWS, IBM cloud or Google Cloud tends to be an essential first step coming to my mind. Now, if there are sceptics who think that I am anti-Microsoft here, they are probably right. Therefor the Links to the two articles were added letting you look at the stories yourself. In the meantime I remember a story in April and it should be my ‘duty’ to inform SAMI that ‘BAE Systems and Microsoft join forces to equip defence programmes with innovative cloud technology’ had a nice article and with the two articles mentioned, SAMI could lay its hands on a truckload of BAE IP. Not sure how far they will get, but free IP is the way to go I say. So when you realise that a large corporation like British Aerospace with all the civilian and military hardware can be accessed, what chances do you think that Novo Nordisk (Denmark), LVMH (France), ASML (Netherlands), SAP (Germany), Hermez (France), L’Oreal (France) have? I do not know if any uses Azure, but it is a good moment for them to select one of the other companies. They could after the event sue Microsoft for damages, but Delta Airlines is already suing CrowdStrike and I am not sure how that will go. In the end it is my personal opinion that this could potentially bite Microsoft hard and it is one of the reasons I do not let them near my IP.

As I personally see it, the companies racing the be the first to launch their (fake) AI will now have a much larger impact. There were already fake data issues, but now the phishing options that are mentioned and when that gets linked to what Cyber Security News calls “UnOAuthorized” the entire IT game changes dramatically and I have no idea how that will play out. 

As my Sunday is almost over and Vancouver only just started there’s a chance we postulate that the next 72 hours will be an interesting one. Have a lovely day (when you are not on Azure).

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August 10, 2024 · 13:06

A little late aren’t you?

It was the setting I was waiting for. The US has given in to its economic pressures and possibly the fear that China might get to much of a headway. Reuters this morning gives me (and other readers) at https://www.reuters.com/world/us-lift-ban-offensive-weapons-sales-saudi-arabia-sources-say-2024-08-09/ the headline ‘US to lift ban on offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia’, which sounds nice but is possibly a little late. Colonel Turki Al-Maliki a member of the Saudi airforce had given us the goods, going all the way back to February 2021. Reuters reported on these attacks in March 2021. In this Reuters is important as they give us ‘Houthis have fired 430 missiles, 851 drones at Saudi Arabia since 2015 – Saudi-led coalition’, the setting is important because civilian targets were aimed at by Houthis amongst them were Saudi airports and structures. So the blockage by the US was weird, especially as the Houthis are a terrorist organisation. So the about turn under the guise of “The Saudis have met their end of the deal, and we are prepared to meet ours”, a little late, isn’t it? But at present the Chinese representatives of parties like the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group is nothing to be sneered at, with the Chengdu J-20 as an optional buy which was (allegedly) discussed at the World Defense Show 2024 in February 2024 (a speculation from me) is giving the Chinese hope to gain much more from the American Defence Industry. Should the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia take that offer, the setting would open the doors (for China) to larger possibilities in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates as well. The damage to the American Industry could amount to an estimated loss of $30-$50 billion over these three nations alone. Not to mention the lucrative service and consultancy jobs. It would be the first definite slam to the value of the US dollar. China is rearing to take up that option in a heartbeat. I discussed (and partially speculated) this in ‘The next Furlong’ which I wrote on March 10th 2022 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/10/the-next-furlong/), as such I was and am now in a stage to emphasise the term ‘told you so’. This setting was clear then and it is a speculated more clear now when we see “Under U.S. law, major international weapons deals must be reviewed by members of Congress before they are made final. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years, citing issues including the toll on civilians of its campaign in Yemen and a range of human rights concerns.” We are about to go into election mode and some politicians will fear for their job a lot more than the American Economy. As such China has a decent chance to crush the American Defence industry. I doubt they fear the Russian abilities as the Russians are getting clobbered by the 20th largest army in the world. The Ukrainians are still damaging the Russian, even after the Russians bombed Ukraine into the stone age. That is not a good sales talk, especially  with the current Russian losses stated below

As such we can accept the Reuters statement, because of its projected validity, yet the words we are given “Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years”, yet the article doesn’t emphasise the attacks by Houthi’s on Saudi civilian targets, which Colonel Turki Al-Maliki showed many clearly going all the way back to 2021, many articles were drowned out by (speculatively speaking) by anti Muslim and anti Saudi voices. Now that China gets to move into a much stronger position, the American administration is taking the gloves off and do what needed to be done in 2021. I reckon that people like Stephanie Kirchgaessner will possibly raise anonymous sources to throw sand in the cogs of common sense. China will love this as this will enable them to get a squadron on Chengdu J-20 into place and optionally ‘gift’ three service teams in the mix, two for maintenance and one to train  Saudi troops. The losses to America will be vast and it will a long term loss. 

As such I think that they were over 2 years late to the party. The initial transfer settings were optionally carved (I have no clear evidence of this) in the airshows of 2021 by SAMI. That would have been the first introductions of Chinese hardware that was to replace whatever America wasn’t giving them at that time. As I personally see it, it might be too late now. You see the Russian losses as shown above are the second piece of evidence. In that setting Russia is no longer a contender and as they are now ‘acquiring’ missiles from North Korea we see a larger question mark, is it merely the lack of missiles or does Russia have a larger problem. I do not know, but Russia isn’t telling, so we are left to our speculations and the Kursk clambake of 2024 Makes things worse for Russia. And in that setting China gets to be the big winner. OK, I admit, this victory would be largely held by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (and supporting parties).

Have a nice day and feel free to watch American revenues move to the far east.

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February 6, 2024 · 00:51

At the start of round two

I have stated more than one that America has a problem, it has a few, yet this was about defence spending and others aren’t spending it on American soil. I have been called crazy, cranky and delusional (no idea where the cranky part came from). Anyway, today I see that Saudi Arabia has a MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) with Leonardo defence.

From one source I am getting “The Ministry of Investment (MISA) of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI) of the Kingdom and Leonardo announced yesterday the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the intention to discuss, develop and evaluate a range of investment and collaboration opportunities in the defence and aerospace sector.” Some will say ‘so what?’ and until recently I would have agreed. I never heard of them, that doesn’t mean anything, but when you consider that the amount (unverified) is rumoured to be around a billion dollars, the case starts to give a different stage. China is taking a massive slice, Germany and the UK are on the pie hunting side and now Italy takes a billion too. This means that the pie that America one had, what is left is a lot smaller and a lot less impressive (for America that is). 

So the pie that was overwhelmingly America (Raytheon, Northrop and a few others) is now set to at least four additional players and even as we do not know the slice of China, there has been a few indicators (unverified) that it amounts to billions. As I personally see it, this is the result of biting the hand that feeds you and I never saw any clear evidence of what happened to that columnist no one cares about. That is the larger station. In addition to this, one source gives us ‘Fifteen Spanish companies compete for a slice of Saudi Arabia’s military pie’. There is no way to see how far they get and the defence market that is going on right now has 700 arms manufacturers trying to get a slice of $71,000,000,000. It is anyones guess how much is left after China gets its slice. All indicators give me that they are succeeding, in least in part, in securing that revenue and that is revenue that is lost to America. I feel certain that players like Raytheon will get a slice, but as far as I can tell it is rumoured to be the smallest slice they have gotten in a decade. 

And a lot of this could have been prevented, but feel free to think that my delusion. 

I wonder what news we will see next week when the trade fair is over. Yet I feel that a few European firms will be happy on what they were able to achieve. The largest setting That I expect at some point is that FN Herstal and/or the Herstal Group will place facilities in Saudi Arabia to see the setting that Saudi Arabia has advocated for close to 3 years to have 50% to be produced nationally. I reckon that FN Herstal/Herstal Group might reconsider that setting and move some of that to Saudi Arabia, not only for the slice of pie, but as part of Brics their dance-book will open up to several players. There is no data showing this to happen, it is pure speculation but that move makes sense to me. You see if FN Herstal doesn’t China and their AVIC, CASC, CETC, CASIC, CSSC, CSGC could get a lot more revenue. Norinco is unlikely to make that cut as it has been a really bad boy, but that could be my personal view on the matter.

Enjoy the day.

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December 15, 2023 · 20:28

As roles unfold

I made mention on this in ‘Egg timer? What egg timer?’ on November 29th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/11/29/egg-timer-what-egg-timer/). I also mentioned these dangers several times more, going all the way back to September 9th 2021 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/09/09/lemon-of-the-century/) when I wrote ‘Lemon of the Century’, there were clear signs, there was clear danger to the revenue of America and now we see ‘Dassault CEO talks Saudi interest in Rafale, takes a shot at F-35 and reveals FCAS details’ (at https://breakingdefense.com/2023/12/dassault-ceo-talks-saudi-interest-in-rafale-takes-a-shot-at-f-35-and-reveals-fcas-details/). This was always going to happen, but now the damage to US revenue is increased. Saudi Arabia is now seriously considering 54 Rafale aircrafts. That will set American revenue back a few billion, eight to be more exact. And that is not all, when you consider that 171 have been bought by Riyadh’s neighbours, there is now a larger setting for SAMI to start talking on munitions and rocket factories in Saudi Arabia, in line with the SAMI goal of 50% of productions to be done within the kingdom in line with their 2030 vision. And through that America loses even more revenue. I reckon that France will go along if there is something in it for them and France spreading defence industries in Saudi Arabia opens up a few more options for them too. All that and it was not in the wind, it was a wind blowing negativity to the US coffers. As such the hardship for America is more then just starting, it is starting to gain speed making the American industry losing more and more revenue. All that through ego, how stupid was that?

And whilst all the players are boasting what they have coming and what more then could get the CEO of Dassault Éric Trappier will be doing it setting the annual forecast well over 15% higher, revenue the other boasters will not have and America basically has that much less. If they boast we got enough, they are correct for now, but what more is there to be lost and what options will China offer? The Chengdu J-20 is still there being a tactical and commercial threat to all the other 5th generation stealth providers. A setting we would never have considered realistic is now unfolding and I saw it ahead of all the other analysts. Makes you wonder why they get so much money to begin with.

And in that light, how much revenue will the others lose when India signs those papers as well? Christmas came early for Dassault Aviation. That much seems clear to me at present.

Enjoy the day.

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December 4, 2023 · 23:05

Dominoes

That is the game, well it is not THAT game exactly, but the expression should be noted with you all. When things go wrong (and at times that will happen) the events fall like domino stones. One starts the next and so on.

It is here that I found myself after seeing ‘Saudi Arabia Pumps Another $100M Into Aviation As It Targets 250 Destinations By 2030’ (at https://simpleflying.com/saudi-arabia-aviation-investment-december-2023/). You see, this is all connected to a much bigger frame. Gaming, the Line, the Cube, the winter sports and so on. They have put up and they have put up the better part of well over a trillion. But the customer care person in me (did that for well over two decades) is looking beyond the frame.

If there is one software company well versed in support and customer care than it is NICE CX software solutions. It is the most complete solution I have EVER seen and there is one hitch. It is Israeli. Now, that doesn’t make it a deal breaker, but it might require Saudi Arabia to make adjustments (like with any other software solution). It needs to become Arabic (it might already be) and it needs to cover several areas and there is a bigger hitch. It needs to survive and offer multiple settings towards deployment and customer service. 

So why now?
The simple setting is that something that big will need time and testing. Adherence to a larger station a well as a larger setting in more fields. Hotels, locations, trade shows, events, airports and so on, that list will not stop for some time and setting this up will take well over a year. Beyond that the creation of a book of ceremonies to capture even more, include even more will have certain settings. Settings for telephone, fax (some still rely on that), internet, CAPI, CATI, form scanning and collecting and verifying data is a much larger issue than most realise and now it is in one hand, in one organisation. I reckon before we get to that setting places like Aramco and SAMI will see additional benefits as well. And if goes well, a lot of it will be complete by 2028, with 2 years of testing before the larger corporations like Saudi Airlines and hotels are connected to that solution. 

Time is an awesome partner when you have this. When this is started in 2029 it will be too late and Saudi Arabia will be cleaning house and answering complaints for well over a year AFTER the solutions are deployed and in that case I always go with, being early is essential, especially with customer care issues. You can only make a first impression once. The rest becomes repair and catering to a howling mess of complaints and that never has ever gone well.

I am curious what could be done and when we get to connect these systems and see how we can serve the customer consider that any international visitor to the The Mukaab, that person flew there, that person is in a hotel and that person could be visiting Trojena as well. Three options to possibly fix something, or to make the visit of that person even more amazing and now multiply that by 100,000,000,000 visitors. Also consider that Riyadh Expo 2030 will be then. When you consider all this, is there any doubt that such a system will be required to keep events in line? There is a second issue. I doubt if Saudi Arabia ever faced events to this amount and to that amount of visitors ever before, but that could merely be me.

Enjoy the day, for most it is about to become Monday, I have completed that day already.

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November 29, 2023 · 07:05

Egg timer? What egg timer?

Yes, we get that. There are egg timers that give us what we were waiting for. I stated on November 17th (12 days ago) “A complete overhaul was the only option and now with BRICS and China pushing in on the little revenue they had left, they have no options now and their competitors are moving in on whatever revenue they had left.” I said so in ‘It’s that time again’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/11/17/its-that-time-again/) Now Politico gives us ‘Brussels wants to beat the Pentagon at its own game on arms sales’ (at https://www.politico.eu/article/european-union-weapons-sales-united-states-defense/) there we see “The European Commission is hinting at a new mechanism similar to the US Foreign Military Sales to facilitate arms exports”, well that didn’t take long, did it? So when we see “In order to claw back the initiative, the European Commission is raising the prospect of copying the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) scheme” we see one thing, but I think it is more about stopping the Chinese sales system of becoming too successful. I fear it might be a little too late for that. There is every indication that China is almost ready to the defence needs of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Too little, too late and as I see it, a little over two years too late. I reckon they ill soon be fishing on the wrong side of the net. So whilst we are now given “In early 2024, Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is expected to present a European Defence Industrial Strategy to help support the Continent’s European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). The consultation document is one of five papers circulated to national delegations to get their views on what the strategy should look like.” You see several reports are out there in the trend of “Riyadh eyes air defence systems and drones as part of possible yuan-based deal while Cairo plans to buy J-10C fighter jets”, so whilst the Europeans are trying to figure out “how to go about it” Saudi Arabia and Egypt are at this point getting catered to by China. As such we see that the China North Industries Group Corporation Limited (NORINCO) is actively talking to the Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI), who is interested in diversifying. 

So that is billions missed, just as I predicted almost two years ago. Now that it is happening, some are ‘reporting’ all whilst whatever intension Europe has with “on what the strategy should look like”, Beijing is not merely getting its feet wet, it is catering to a new clientele and China is hungry for that revenue. So when was the last time you left billions on the floor? As I personally see it Amazon did so a year ago (but they have plenty of cash), the US government does not, it has a debt of $31,000,000,000,000 as such every billion lost is another carve on the debt stick and the next shutdown is expected to be around January 19th 2024 if they cannot agree on a new continuing resolution a lot will fall away. That was a given, but with Europe now tying to get defence money, giving the US less and already China is in the mix (has been for months) with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and they are expected to score some revenue from the United Arab Emirates as well, this upcoming CR will be missing a few revenue posts and not much is needed to make it all fall over. The larger setting is not merely defence, the UAE will (according to one source) be looking at ships as well. As such there is every chance that the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) could be up for some UAE coast guard ships. As I understand it, it has something to do with the Abu Dhabi Ship Building Co (ADSB). So is it mere consultancy? Ships design? I honestly do not know, but what does matter is that they used to have an American fleet, now as that falls away a lot more revenue will be missed by American companies. 

All this and the larger setting isn’t merely what Politico tells you, it is the second degree that the Saudi and Egyptian deals open the doors for. I think that Bangladesh is next on the Chinese sights. China has a two sided tactic, gain revenue and stop America from getting revenue. It is the same setting we saw with Evergreen in 1989. Yung-Fa Chang played his hand brilliantly, a setting where players like Nedlloyd had close to complete control was lost in less than 5 years to Evergreen. I reckon that we get a similar kind of play towards the larger naval needs of Bangladesh and Indonesia. After that there will not be much left for America. They already broke their own windows with their ‘elite’ approach towards the F-22 Raptor. I am not criticising this. It was the demand of the US to keep sole custody of that dinky toy. Yet now Chengdu has several nations vying for their J-20 and with the range options, that is a thing coveted by many defence forces all over the globe and there Saudi Arabia, UAE and optionally Egypt and Indonesia as well is a setting of several billions right of the bat, and I expect that the USA cannot counter those odds on revenue. Yet there are a few options for Europe as well. If they push their agenda Chengdu will have to compete with the Eurofighter Typhoon. I have no idea who will win that revenue race, but Europe better be moving fast, the early bird that hesitates becomes worm food. As for the technical side, I am not a pilot. Yet in all this the Evergreen approach comes to mind, so America and Europe are quickly running out of time and Europe’s voiced response of “on what the strategy should look like” sounded nice in 2021, but not now. It’s crunch time for them at this point.

Enjoy your day today.

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May 11, 2023 · 00:38

The bigger shift

The news that caught me today is (at https://dohanews.co/saudi-arabia-mulls-launch-of-english-news-channel-to-rival-al-jazeera-reports/) giving us ‘Saudi Arabia mulls launch of English news channel to rival Al Jazeera’. I actually originally got it from the Financial Times, but they are behind a paywall, so I cannot use them as a source. So Saudi Arabia is now considering an English News Channel. This changes things. First E-Sports, now sports (Messi And Ronaldo), Formula one and now we get “A Saudi state-backed media organisation is considering the development of an international English-language news station, seen as an effort to counter Qatar’s flagship Al Jazeera network and boost the kingdom’s media influence”. I personally think that there is another reason. You see, if tourism develops in Saudi Arabia, the need for an English Channel rises and it’s need will rise exponentially. It also allows to dig into advertisement funds that have been denied them for decades. You see, the advertiser goes to where the people and the money is. The money is already in Saudi Arabia, but soon so will be the people. The stages of sports will allow Saudi Arabia exclusive news channelling and that leads to more revenue and more visibility. Even as we are given “The Saudi Research and Media Group reportedly approached media consultancies to assess the viability and scope of the endeavour, according to a number of people familiar with the project, the Financial Times reported. They said it will be the second-largest English-language broadcaster in the Arab world, after Al Jazeera English, although the preparations are still in the early stages.” And this is not all, there is another reason. As western media ‘embraced’ their Share holder, stake holder and advertiser approach to filtering information. They lost credibility and the audience. Most places no longer call it news, they refer to it as information entertainment (Fox anyone?) In addition to this, the west would finally get real information on Aramco (not filtered by Brent), on SAMI (not filtered by the pentagon) and sports. It would even propel interest into things like Camel racing, the Emirates Ice Hockey League and from that we could see the development of a Saudi Ice Hockey league. We know that they are still not a member of the International Ice Hockey Federation, but to see Saudi Arabia grow teams in Jeddah, Dammam and Riyadh, taking on the UAE teams from the Emirates Hockey League (EHL). We could see names like Abu Dhabi Scorpions, Abu Dhabi Storms, Al Ain Theebs, Dubai White Bears, Dubai Mighty Camels propel all over the western TV stations. 

If the west is embracing sports Saudi Arabia has the making to replace a whole collection of news channels that lost too much credibility. And it isn’t merely influence. As I personally see it the KSA lacks perception and awareness in the view of the non Arabian people and this could be a first step to open that door. Beyond that there are several markets where the KSA could set foot into and in this world in this current economic climate that will go a long way, what is important that the first steps are made setting the larger stage towards doing something and that is where it is at. Will it happen? This happening is a logical step after setting claims towards E-sports, Formula 1, Football and Ice hockey. Beyond that is the stage where the people will get first looks on the Line (that long building) and several other innovations coming towards us from Saudi Arabia. 

A bigger shift is underway and the US with their deceptive ‘entertainment’ like Fox and even CNN, they will have nothing to counter it. In the last 5 years they wasted too much credibility opening the door to other players and as I see it the KSA stands to add an audience of close to half a billion in the first 2 years, would you like to see the advertisement money on that pool? 

Enjoy the day before Friday.

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May 5, 2022 · 00:36

Retail 101

One of the oldest rules of retail 101 is that you buy cheap and sell as high as possible, that is how you create profit. Add to that the simple rule that you spend less than you earn and that will make you rich on the side. These rules are not new, they were old when the crusades started (ca.1095). 

So when the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61188579) gives us ‘Oil prices have soared. Why won’t Opec bring them down?’ The setting of the American governmental license plate came to mind (Dee-You-Age). We get to see “Opec+ could also lower prices by putting more oil onto the market, which is what major importers like the US and UK want it to do.” Yes, and tarmac is made with liquorice. Opec+ has a good deal, there is a need for oil and they can set the price. The nations relying on oil have done pretty much ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to appease Saudi Arabia. We see the two largest suppliers (Russia and Saudi Arabia) but even though the US is not in that group, how much oil do they produce? 

And then we get “US President Joe Biden has repeatedly appealed to Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output, but to no avail. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also asked Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to increase production. He too was rebuffed.” In this the first part was that the US played a stupid game.

  1. A journalist no one gives a fuck about goes missing and for weeks the gossip and speculations start, even the United Nations get involved with shoddy documentation (as I personally see it). Realism tells us that something happened. Yet no one and I say again no one produced clear evidence. None gave any clear evidence of what had happened and Turkey who was playing the Iranian game made things worse. The United Nation document had issues, several players were not held to account, but that did not matter, they all got to attack the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
  2. The Houthi attacks and again the Iranian factor in this was openly ignored by the media. The non Arabic nations were not informed on houthi attacks with Iranian support on Saudi civilian targets. Coalition events were exaggerated, Houthi attacks were trivialised. 
  3. Saudi and SAMI needs were stopped and Saudi defence settings were halted. Now, the west can do that, they are allowed to. Yet in that, the Saudi’s have absolutely no need to increase production, do they? If the west was so clear on their needs, they would have increased non-oil options two decades ago, but that did not really happen, did it?

Three clear events that are now biting the hands of the US and the UK, Saudi Arabia is willing to look after its friends, but these two have not really shown to be friends, have they?

And in all this Russia is enjoying what is happening, because they do not have to do anything else but watch the cost of living in the US, UK and EU to rise to almost impossible levels. A stage we never wanted and perhaps those tea ladies from the CAAT are now in a stage where they can afford the tea, but they can no longer afford the cookies. There is an opposing side to almost everything and the simple truth of protesting without understanding what was going on is now taking its toll. But the CAAT had its limelight shots in the newspapers. It is lovely to see those pictures, just too bad that the price of that limelight ended up costing some people billions and under those conditions the UK can pretty much kiss their cheaper oil goodbye.

In all this, I wonder what the CIA did last month, what they offered the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, because the current administration has pretty much destroyed whatever options they had. As I see it, by the rules of Retail 101, the US has only one option, to open whatever weapon sales it can get without restrictions and with a full service package. I reckon that alone is required to lower the oil prices by 10%, they need a lot more, but as such the players will have to offer more and they need to realise that the loud words of ‘no oil’ and ‘end petrol needs’ were merely that, words. It will happen, there is no doubt in my mind, but I doubt I will be alive to see those days, I reckon kids who were born after 2000 will have a decent chance to see the end of a petrol based economy whilst they are still alive. I doubt that it will happen before that. In this, the entire stage of the BBC article was to some degree needed, but they should have given the people a slightly better information ring. Like the interactions of OPEC and airlines. You see over the last 15 years we added a total of 41000 additional flights a day, why? There is also a lack of the American numbers, how much oil do they produce and why can they not produce more? Two simple elements in this equation missing, why is that? 

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April 6, 2022 · 19:57

The three day delay

Yes, it is not new, I had my go on this a few times, yet due to what we see now, after three days, it is time to renew this event. It started basically in 2014, the Yemen war became something serious and the west had no idea how to react. They reacted poorly and to make matters worse, events driven by Iran was kept out of the news. The people got a one sided story. Over time weapons sales went stale, were blocked and the defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was a setting of debate by people who had no clue what was going on, because the ego trippers needed their Iran peace accord through a nuclear deal, something that even now is still not done. Matters became worse when the west decided to spin the events around Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018. So even as the press al invoked “By 16 November 2018, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had concluded that Mohammed bin Salman ordered Khashoggi’s assassination.” In this that the CIA stated that is was highly likely that this had happened, but no evidence was EVER brought to light. No evidence that could survive the rigours of academic investigations. The essay by the United Nations did not help any, that is for certain. Then we get the hack of Jeff Bezos, a disgracefully inadequate report by FTI Consulting. It is important to take notice of the Verge (at https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/23/21078828/report-saudi-arabia-hack-jeff-bezos-phone-fti-consulting) that also gives us “Facebook’s former chief security officer Alex Stamos, for example, said that there was “no smoking gun” in the report. Some researchers said that FTI should have been able to analyze the encrypted file that the crown prince sent Bezos which reportedly hacked his phone. And one said he didn’t see evidence in the report to suggest that Bezos’ phone was hacked.” I believe that Jeff got hacked, but there is no clear evidence WHO did the job, but there were some wannabe reporters that were really happy to blame the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. Even though several newspapers earlier that week showed that certain hacks allowed people to pretend they were someone else, and that too is missing from the FTI report. 

So we have all these negativity, projected on the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and now the US wants a favour? You have got to be shitting me!

So we get back to the article where we see “Why should America’s regional allies help Washington contain Russia in Europe when Washington is strengthening Russia and Iran in the Middle East?” And this is the larger folly, a stage where the wrong people cater to Iran, all whilst they require other stuff too, but you cannot get it both ways and now that China is stepping in gobbling up billions upon billions in sales and services, we see the US in a stage of denial. They now need cheap oil, all whilst the two largest suppliers are set to the mind that premium prices will do just as well. And I warned for these situations for years, but everyone was in denial. It would never come to that and now that it is coming to that, the US, the EU and others are in denial on what is required. So at present the oil prices are on the rise, just for how long is impossible to say, yet we also acknowledge that reserves are being used to stop the rise. Just how long until that stops? What do you think will happen when the reserves are gone, because most nations do not have that much in reserve. They can avoid the winter this year, but that will drain the reserves and even as they can build up some of those reserves during summer, winter 2022 will show to be the year that people will need to choose, be warm, avoid hunger and pay rent/mortgage and there is every consideration that many households will only be able to do one of the three, two if they are lucky. 

That is the direct impact of catering to the populist view, the price of adjusting one view for another, one deciding on what was likely, not what could be proven, ignoring what was proven (Iran attacks) and catering to something that is still not a reality (Iranian nuclear agreement) and Iran has clearly been catered to and now the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are telling you all that enough is enough. You want oil at a premium, you got it and at a premium means that within the next 12-15 weeks oil prices might get back to the $130 marker, at that point, how much will it cost you to get groceries, to get to work, to get home and to refuel? All that whilst these two nations are now looking at China to deliver defence systems. Slap upon slap upon slap and now 19 hours ago we were given ‘Iran Says U.S. Is Responsible for Stalled Talks on Reviving Nuclear Deal’, another fiasco and the involved political players are all in hiding as not to get painted with that fiasco. So when you wonder what happened to the oil prices, it is simple. Your government royally screwed up and gave you the bill for their failure. 

So good luck with that.

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March 17, 2022 · 17:40

Ding, ding, prices are going up

After I wrote ‘A symphony in only two parts?’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/16/a-symphony-in-only-two-parts/) two articles appeared (might have been more, but these two lighted up). The first one is from a place called oilprice dot com. The article (at https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Arabia-Considers-Ditching-The-Dollar-For-Chinese-Oil-Sales.html) gives us ‘Saudi Arabia Considers Ditching The Dollar For Chinese Oil Sales’ with the added “According to the report, the talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom.” OK, that is fine, but I reckon the way Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud has been treated by some will not have helped. Moreover if China sets the barricades of pushing forward and aiding SAMI in getting the internal growth desired these pushes might come to fruition. We are also given “China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports, and if priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency, and set the Chinese currency on a path to becoming a global petroyuan reserve currency.” I feel uncertain to answer that part, but consider that there is a limit to oil, consider that China will request not the 25% they get now, but 30%, with an overcapacity of amount X, now consider that Saudi Arabia (ARAMCO) does that and therefor the US (and west) will now receive 5% minus X less. Prices will skyrocket. More importantly in the last hours we saw ‘Boris Johnson Visits U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, Seeking More Oil’ and here too we see the British PM go home without any commitments, CNN even gives us ‘Biden demands faster drop in gas prices as oil tumbles’, so where is he going to demand that from? Russia? Venezuela? UAE? Saudi Arabia? The man who was desperately outspoken about making Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah is now telling that same person to drop prices? Man does karma suck and then some? We see the stage of painful karma in article one, but why article two? That is seen as we contemplate the title ‘Saudi Arabia’s Oil-For-Yuan Bid Won’t Threaten the Dollar’ (at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-16/saudi-arabia-s-oil-for-yuan-proposal-won-t-threaten-the-dollar) it is a good and decent piece, but an opinion piece none the less. There we get “Is there a situation more absurd than two of the world’s most dollar-dependent economies promising to free themselves from the exorbitant burden of the dollar?” I believe that a few gaps are there. This is no longer a ‘too big too fail’ market. The US has a debt surpassing $30,000,000,000,000 and that debt is growing by billions a day. In addition in this economy that is picking itself up fuel prices could (could being the operative word) go up by 20% before October and then winter comes. You all watched the income of dreaded winter in Game of Thrones, now you get to see it in your neighbourhood (if you are north enough to see it for yourself). So the quote “it’s inevitable that the perennial chatter about the yuan challenging the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency should be revived. Such talk has always been fanciful — but it’s even more unlikely right now.” The man is not incorrect, but these talks have been going on for 6 years and in that time the largest one has surpassed a point of no return point in debts, and number two and three (EU and Japan) are not that far behind, they will take extensive damage if the dollar topples. Yes, we all here that noise “It will never happen” but really? How much debt will that take and when it happens, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will have to do whatever is best for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The writer then gives us “The yuan punches far below its weight in terms of foreign exchange transactions, and the dollar punches above its weight” which to some degree gives us that Saudi Arabia might consider it and when the oil shortages start adding up, that move of Saudi Arabia solidifying longer and stronger walls with China the stage is partially set. Life in the US and EU will become unbearably hard. Even now Japan is trying to set up new stimulus packages and we saw how great that was for the EU, trillions in added debt and no restarted economy. Ad there is a direct link in support between the US, EU and Japan. So when these support structures collapse we see a sort of house of cards impact and that affects the global economy, no matter how you want to present that picture. Consider the simple stage of California. In Los Angeles fuel costs $5.876, now consider adding 20% to that, all whilst life in Los Angeles (all over California) is as expensive as it ever was. With the shortage of drivers and deliveries that market will sure to set a few more stages. In 11 districts in California fuel prices are (presently) the highest ever, so add 20% to that? You think it is impossible? Think again. The Middle East has given NO guarantees that there will be more fuel, it basically has no interest to do that, or to lower prices and around the corner is China enjoying the commercial stage the US (EU too) pushed themselves in and they get to direct the fallout of that setting. 

Now, there needs the be a clear message. “I could be wrong” an educated guess remains a guess, yet what I found is coming from decent sources and because the writers do not want to look into the dark corner does not mean that dark corner goes away, it merely means that whatever comes from there will come less expected and hits the people squarely on the jaw. And the setting that we see now has been growing month after month for about 2-3 years. So the people in that corner WANT this to happen. Like myself they are hoping for that fat bonus and some of them have received guarantees (I did not) So the people pushing this have an interest to push this. I do not care that much unless the 3.75% bonus comes my way. At that point I would state ‘Push all you want’ because that too is the result of a commerce based world and now the inhumane setting of that becomes clear. The US never cared when they got to call the shots, but that is now no longer the case is it? So when we see a president giving CNN ‘Biden demands faster drop in gas prices as oil tumbles’, they seemingly forget that oil prices were dropping when there was still supply at a higher price and there is a decent chance that these prices will go back up before those reserves are completely gone. And when they are gone oil volatility will hit American households all over (EU too). The dream of every family it own car will be to live in a stage of perpetual work at home because the people cannot afford to go to the office and then reality comes calling double quick. So perhaps yes, I do hope I get my bonus, if only to retire with a will to live and I am not alone in that setting. There are millions like me all over the world. 

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