Category Archives: Finance

May 6, 2023 · 19:59

Having the ball

Yes, sometimes we have the balls, sometimes a little less so. Yet in the BBC court we see two players (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-65244351) one is FIFA the other one is EA. So whilst we got on April 24th ‘Fifa no more? EA Sports rebrands its biggest game’. Yes it has been 2 weeks, but I do not particularly care about FIFA, so I left it alone. Yet this afternoon a few thoughts fell through. They came up in the first hour I noticed it, actually they came up about 5 minutes after the announcement that EA was going to drop FIFA. There was a plan for them, I had no doubt about that and 2 weeks ago we got the gist. “the developer behind one of the most successful franchises in gaming history, moves on to its new football game, EA Sports FC.” Just like Fortnite having its spasms, EA has a plan to avoid FIFA costs and I reckon that they wanna keep all 5 billion of that revenue. And we get “Mr Jackson emphasised that more than 19,000 footballers, 700 teams and 30 leagues will still be represented in the game, despite the split from football’s governing body.” Yet the larger impact is one some are not realising. How are these all represented? The IP of football shirts are partially set things like “the FIFA online store for officially licensed national team kits” are in many places, as such EA has issues. They are ‘focussed’ on “EA has also unveiled its FC Futures programme, which it says will support grassroots football projects across the world” which I personally see as ‘the party line’, but FIFA has its claws in its field, so the player is in for a surprise or two. Now, this is not necessarily bad, but the history of the loot-box is fresh, they need a new approach and I have no idea how they will go about that part. Also FIFA was way too big with 700 teams, so what gives there? 

And then we saw the game in a dangerous setting “The new Fifa game, Fifa 25, 26, 27 and so on, will always be the best e-game for any girl or boy”, and as this becomes an E-game, parents better realise that this comes at a cost. I reckon EA will play it softly and slowly change their grip from silk glove into a vice. Five billion is nothing to be sneered at and no matter how slow it happens, it will happen. We will see all the excuses, all the ‘mis communications’ but no that FIFA is cut off, EA will play a very different game. Some will be thrown by “everything you know and love from the modern FIFA games, including Ultimate Team, Career Mode, Pro Clubs, and VOLTA. You can expect the same attention to detail and number of official licenses, too.” In this I am not certain, but I need to see evidence before making that call and EA is playing this close to the chest at present.

And here is the kicker, as far as I can tell, at present there is no confirmed news on whether EA will follow the free-to-play route with EA Sports FC or not. This matters, because an E-sport that is not free to play could easily start at $5 a week, that is almost $25 a month making the game a lot more expensive whist after month 2 EA will be raking in the money. If it is free to play, the player will need to rely on premium packs at $7 each, so how does that math work out for you? 700 teams, 19000 players. How many packs will that be? Perhaps the player has one free team (depending on where they are) the rest not so much. And this is a problem, but also this view is speculative. EA is keeping its hand closed, so until they reveal we really do not know. 

The larger stage is ‘avoided being seen’ with “We do see ourselves as the world’s game. And as a result, we need to meet players and fans, where they are. This is a great embodiment of our commitment to football in general.” You see, I did (and still do) see loot-boxes as non-gambling. Yet FIFA was in a stage of exploitation and now that they cannot ‘hide’ behind the FIFA brand they have a much larger issue, because like most companies, they are hesitant to give away the 5 billion in revenue, even though they keep most of it now, they aren’t Amazon or Google (who wasted billions) EA has a bottom line, it has revenue depending shareholders, so if this goes south there will be a culling in EA management. 

Yet until the ACTUAL announcements come (not all the speculations we see everywhere) we will have to wait and as the game is expected to come in late September, I expect that the whole enchilada will be revealed no later than July, so roughly 8 weeks away, but that too is speculation from my side.

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May 5, 2023 · 22:14

A state of banking

Yes, the banking issues remain and they are seemingly getting worse. This is seen in the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65467019) where we are given ‘Credit Suisse: Asia investors sue Switzerland over bank collapse’, which reads funny, but that is the effect of lawsuits. Yet that article and the BBC article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65370751) named ‘£55bn withdrawn from Credit Suisse before rescue’ gave me reason to pause. This was not some setting of chance. Can you grasp how much £55,000,000,000 is? That is not some account, some people. That is the works of a few titans and someone gave THEM the heads up. So when we are given “The Swiss banking giant said 61.2bn Swiss francs left the bank in the first three months of the year” there I an issue, this is not merely a bank run. Then this many multimillionaires are running for the hills, someone set the watchtower on fire and stated, run for your life. Yes, it is highly speculative, but 55 billion pounds? That is serious cash in any economy. So when we consider the first article and we see “Already a Credit Suisse client for several years, he bought around $500,000 worth of bonds in January despite the bank having been hit by a series of scandals and compliance problems over the past few years” as well as “The type of bonds he bought from Credit Suisse are known as AT1 bonds, or contingent convertibles. They normally carry high yields for investors but are considered among the riskiest bonds that banks issue”, so in January this person decided to take a high risk setting, and in that time, or at least over the next 6 weeks when a staggering amount of billions pulled out, that person sat still? I know there is a sucker born every minute, but this comes across as the emperor of all suckers. Then we get the mother of all issues “Central to their claim is who was given priority when the bank failed. The terms of the bonds, seen by the BBC, show that bondholders are, if possible, supposed to be compensated first, after which come shareholders. But in practice, shareholders were allowed to exchange their Credit Suisse shares for UBS shares, albeit at a vastly reduced value.” There we see two parts. The first is ‘if possible’ which is a dangerous subjective term, the second is the stage of when they were alerted? How reachable were they?

Then the second article gives on tiny sliver. It is “Credit Suisse had been loss-making and had faced a string of problems in recent years, including money laundering charges.” As such, at what moment in delusional time is buying bonds in a loss making company a good idea? That is beside all the legal issues (including money laundering). In which situation (when it is not a government) are you investing in bonds in something that is losing money? Those in March (if they had done their homework) would have seen dozens of billions of pounds leaving that ‘sinking’ vessel. Only those with a peculiar sense of delusion are setting their up their portfolio in such a place. And when we see the end of the article giving us “The deal, when it was announced, valued Credit Suisse at $3.15bn (£2.6bn), whereas on the Friday before the settlement was reached it had been valued at about $8bn.” A place that is a mere 32% of its value in a week and 55 billion went the way of water whilst the bank went the way of the dodo. When a bank is a mere 8 billion and 55 billion left its shores? Even if half leaves the shores, I would be running like Forest Gump and no chocolates would be required. So I ask you are these investors that banked on governments saving their coin (and hide)? Is that what governments do now, all whilst they fail to hold banks to account?

I will let you decide, enjoy the weekend.

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May 5, 2023 · 00:09

The missed off-ramp

We all have that, we are focussed on one path, one one goal and as such we miss what is in the corner of our eyes. This is not new and no one is impervious, not even me. I was so focussed on my IP and for decent reasons that I forgot to look at what else is possible. In this the Amazon Luna has additional options. The idea that it could be used for all kinds of education wasn’t lost on many, but did they consider the larger field here? 

So in comes a treasure of the past. In 1990 Sid Meier released Railroad Tycoon and it would spread to nearly every home computer on the planet. It was informative and at times educational. Yet the setting could be altered. Yes we can remaster that game and perhaps that is a good consideration. Yet the larger station is not a new version but a totally new game. So what when we do this involving shipping, not merely as a game, but as an educational tool. A setting that starts in the 12th century and from there the ‘student’ gets to create a ship, start an economy and over time we grow from one ship to a fleet, from local boats (educating us on shipping and fishing)  to cargo vessels. The players will get introduced to ports and port costs, profits, margins and in a way that sets a diary towards economics and history, the ships will give people understanding on engineering even mathematics (something keeps that thing afloat). When the game is merely a vessel of distributing knowledge and education the premise of a system changes and that offers a larger tribunal towards educating new and young minds. If ‘the shipping world’ is merely a step, what more can be done? I saw games on the workings of a law firm, too much game, but the idea had options for growth and that is where the educational off ramp becomes stronger. Yes, parents are all up in arms against children playing FIFA and Fortnite, but what happens when educational games get a much stronger appeal? What happens when the next generation gets a new infusion on mathematics, economy, history, engineering and even sciences? This is merely one game, so what happens when the next generation gets an additional education in culture and languages as well. We need to look at the Middle East and Asia where these solutions will find eager minds. India has well over a billion people and when we consider Indonesia, Pakistan and India, the solution would come close to 2 billion minds that is one hell of cluster to consider and my IP was nowhere near that large but it adds to the setting and those two stages are off ramps that neither Amazon nor Google considered seriously. Google even dropped their Stadia, even though it had options, but they never saw it and now there is merely Amazon, with Tencent following closely, for Amazon too close even. All due to missed off ramps these two giants left billions on the floor and now Tencent Technologies is almost in range to pick it up themselves. We all miss opportunities, but Google and Amazon left the opportunity on the floor for close to two years. Do you think that Tencent technologies will make that mistake? 

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May 4, 2023 · 01:30

Indecisive and on the fence

I was on the fence for part of the day. You see, I saw (by chance) a review of a game names Redfall and it was bad, like burning down your house whilst making French fries is a good day, it was THAT bad. Initially I ignored it, because haters will be haters. I hate Microsoft, but I go by evidence, not merely my gut feeling or my emotions. So a little later I got to be curious, you see the game was supposed to be released a day ago and I dumped my Xbox One and it is an exclusive, so I couldn’t tell. As such I looked a few reviews and they were all reviews of a really bad game. It now nagged at me and Forbes (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2023/05/03/redfalls-failure-is-microsofts-failure/) completed the cycle. There we see ‘Redfall’s Failure Is Microsoft’s Failure’ with “Redfall reviews are in, and they are terrible. What could have and should have been another hit from Arkane, maker of the excellent Dishonored, Prey and Deathloop, is instead what may be the worst AAA release in recent memory” and it does not end there. We also get “two hours in, I understand the poor reviews and do not understand the handful of good ones. This is a deeply, strangely bad game, so much so that I truly don’t understand how it was released at all in this state” and that is the start of a collapsing firm forced to focus outside of their comfort zone and the fun part (for me) is that it was acquired by Microsoft for billions. So we are on track to make that wannabe company collapse by December 2026. I added my IP for developers exclusively for Sony and Amazon could help, but the larger stage is that Microsoft is more and more becoming its own worst enemy. Yet, I do not rely on that alone. Handing some of my IP to Tencent Technologies will help. Sony is making them sweat but I cannot rely on Amazon with its Luna, as such Tencent technologies is required to make streaming technologies a failure for Microsoft too. So whilst we mull “we are left with now-goofy-sounding tweets from Phil Spencer announcing last year’s delay, saying that they will release these “great games when they are ready.” Redfall was not ready. And given what’s here, I’m not sure it ever was going to be.” I personally feel they were not, but they did something else, something worse. It was tactically sounds, it really was, but they upset the gaming community. They took away the little freedom gamers had and now we are all driven to make Microsoft fail, whether it is via Amazon, or we will engage with new players like Tencent Technology and add to the spice of Sony, but Microsoft will pay and now it becomes even better, they now have a massive failure for a mere $7,000,000,000 not a bad deal (well for Phil Spencer it is) and that is not the end of the bad news. As Tencent accepts my idea they will create an almost overnight growth towards a $5 billion a year market and they will surpass the Microsoft setting with 50 million subscriptions in the first phase, how far it will go, I honestly cannot tell, but when the dust settles we will enter 2026 with Microsoft dead last in the console war and in the streaming war and that was merely the beginning. They lost the tablets war already, they will lose ‘their’ edge war and ChapGPT will not aid them, a loser on nearly every front. That is what happens when you piss of gamers. To be honest I never had any inkling of interest in doing what I do now, but Microsoft made me in their own warped way and Bethesda because of it will lose too. They will soon have contenders in fields they were never contested before and this failure (Redfall) will hurt them more than they realise.

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May 3, 2023 · 09:23

The empty wall

That happens, the writings is not always on the wall and now with the writers strike in the US, that wall may be empty for some days. Before I go into the now, lets consider what happened 15 years ago when the writers had their fill of exploitation. They went on strike for 100 days and the cost to the California economy was a thumping 2 billion dollars. That setting just now after covid would buckle many players all at one, making the US economy take a turn down in a stage it cannot afford it. There are other elements as well, but they do not matter at present. I was thrown by stories last week about writers that were living on US support. The people that are the foundation for billions in profit are not given a fair shake. How is that for greed and exploitation. They are not asking for the moon, they merely want a fair shake, a decent income. And I cannot see why not. I write stories, I created the foundation of movies and TV series. As such I identify with their needs. Not because of the income or the work I am in. I write for fun and to keep my skills honed. Yet the power of creation is strong and I can identify and side with anyone who made that their life’s ambition. 

As such when the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-65447046) gave me ‘Hollywood strike: Late night comedy shows to go dark as writers’ walkout begins’ I took notice. It wasn’t merely “A Writers Guild of America (WGA) strike, the first in 15 years, saw more than 11,000 writers – 98% of voting members – walk out from midnight. Tuesday’s late-night shows are expected to shut down first, while forthcoming shows and films could face delays.” This wasn’t merely a majority rules setting. 98 percent agreed, that is more than strong. It shows that the greed driven parties have taken things too far. I know it is not that simple, but that is the feeling it gives us. In. Place like the US where most people cannot agree one way or the other, 98% agreed and that number needs to sink in with many of us. We see the late night show references, but the larger stage is that this is not about one employer, one show or one movie. This is about the bulk of all and that matters, especially when a person like me throws the terms ‘greed’ and ‘exploitation’ into the mix, because that is how I feel about it. When I see stories about creators of successful series being on government support, something does not add up and these two term come to mind. 

And there is a larger stage with “This time around, writers are clashing with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) – which represents the major studios, including Amazon, Disney, Netflix and Paramount – in demand of higher pay and a greater share of the profits from the modern streaming boom” the BBC gives us part, but I believe that there is more. You see when we see ‘a greater share of the profits’ we think it is the writing, but what we forget that streaming profit streams in ‘ad infinitum’ and even if that were true, that is not what the writers get, nowhere near what the writers get. To give a simplistic version, if that setting was completely true. A person like Dorothy Catherine Fontana could (due to her involvement in Star Trek The Next Generation) buy David Hasselhoff out of his $51 million mansion and take it for herself. Even if she got a mere $0.05 per episode, Star Trek TNG has been running in syndication since it aired in 1987 and it is still running at full speed on Netflix, even today. Not all series get there and not all do that well, but there is a time gap, there is a larger stage. Consider that a radio station has to register every record they play, because the composer gets a royalty fee, this has been going on for decades. So why is there no setting for streaming? Now, I am over simplifying this and I am setting a slightly inaccurate example but the premise stays the writers want a fair shake and when we see that industry make billions, why not? The stage is that streaming is a new media that is not completely understood. Some see it as a temporary stage, some see it as the next iteration in media and there is a reason that studios are jumping on that train, it is where the consumers are and during that jump some thought it was a sweet deal in a few ways, yet the people creating those series are largely forgotten, that is how the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and its members feel about it and when you have to make ends meet that feeling of happiness sour in seconds and that is what I believe we see now. 

And when we see “Key issues in the talks have been how writers get paid for shows which often remain on streaming platforms for years, as well as the future impact of artificial intelligence on writing.” And here again we see two different settings. You see AI does not exist, whatever comes from these solutions isn’t created from the mind, it comes from data, data that these writers contributed. See it as an IT solution to cloning the writers mind, based on data the IT solution never created in the first place. So how long until they are made obsolete? And when I see “The AMPTP said it had offered a “comprehensive package proposal” including higher pay for writers.

But it was unwilling to improve that offer further “because of the magnitude of other proposals still on the table that the Guild continues to insist upon.”” I do not see a solution or a proposal, I see a stalling tactic, a way to keep more and hand out less to a people who created the success in the first place. In this Jimmy Fallon (the comedian) gives us “Arriving at the Met Gala, Fallon said he hoped the strike would not go ahead, but at the same time wanted to see “a fair deal” agreed for writers. “I need my writers real bad, I got no show without my writers”” which I think is the true part and with ‘a fair deal’ he hits the WGA nail on the head, I wonder how long it will take the AMPTP to take a serious stand and not true to negotiate part by part and with a ‘win’ on every segment. You see,100 days is enough for some streamers to find whatever they can in Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, not to overlook Korea, Japan and India. All players that will have time and with 100 perhaps even longer to find players to go for THEIR solutions. They have been in the dark a lot longer and they are hungry for desperate streamers. How much damage will that bring. I reckon it will be more than the $2,000,000,000 the industry had the last time and when that happens, who will win? I feel certain that at that point the AMPTP will not feel like a winner. You see, a player like Netflix relies on its 230 million subscribers, especially outside of the US, their subscribers will look for other solutions when Netflix does not deliver. All this whilst the WGA and its members merely seek a fair deal? This could end up being a mopping exercise whilst the tap remains running. A lot of energy going nowhere and the spectators can clearly see that tap running. The empty wall is not merely the lack of creativity, it will be the result by not decently rewarding creativity. But it is early days, it is merely week 1 of the setting, the writers are adamant. How strong is the AMPTP deal? I honestly do not know because I have not seen any of these documents, but writers that take hunger over food whilst being underpaid is not a good setting, greed never wins over desperation, history taught us that lesson the hard way a few times over.

Enjoy this marvellous day past Sunday.

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May 2, 2023 · 12:57

Wages of fear

That happens, we at times decide to take a very risky road and US politicians more than most, but now they are about to head into shallows with a cruise liner? You will state that this is no big deal, tugs will pull it into deep water and normally you would be right. Yet in this case the cargo is nitroglycerine, so as it hits the shores the ship goes badaboom, a really big badaboom and it is not a ship we are talking about, it is the US economy. So as we consider what is about to happen, lets give you an example.

Netflix


Netflix at present (and over the last year has had well over 225 million subscribers, giving it an annual payday of well over $27,000,000,000 which is not too shabby, a good setting to work from.  So after the 17 billion in new media it has over 10 billion and change, I reckon that 50% if not more into technology, as such they are doing fine.

US Economy
Now we get into a less good place, the US economy and do not mistake one for the other. The US economy has many. Complexities, but the setting does not change, it needs to pay bills. As such we rely on Forbes giving us “The National Debt Approaches $32 Trillion, Will It Bankrupt America?”  (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2023/04/25/the-national-debt-approaches-32-trillion-will-it-bankrupt-america/) and this is where two groups are opposing, those in denial claim it will not be so (very wishful thinking). I myself and many others are on the opposing side of the debate. Forbes gives us “The current revenue of the federal government is approximately $4.6 trillion while spending exceeds $6.0 trillion. Thus, the current budget deficit is over $1.4 trillion. It’s clear that members of Congress are spending like drunken sailors and like the Titanic, the U.S. is on a collision course with a financial iceberg” yet this is merely one side of the shallows they are heading for. You see, that we get from another side (the New York Times) who gives us that the US is running out of money somewhere between June and September. Yet that is not the whole enchilada. These two parts should alert you to the US Bonds fiasco, I tried to warn you a few times over. You see whilst everyone is cheering on bonds, there is a downside. These pesky papers mature and even as the interest payday seems small (1.65%) over $20,000,000,000,000 that still ends up being a $330 billion invoice and the budget does not take that in. OK, it is not all due immediately, but a rough estimate gives is that in the next 4 years $2,400,000,000,000 does and that is still a massive amount. Add to this the budget deficit that has been going on for years and you see the problem the US economy is heading for. It might never have been avoided, it could have been delayed by a lot. And with the current deficits, where will the US find $600 billion annual in maturing bonds (2023-2027)

I warned of this 25 years ago when I called for a tax overhaul where companies (Google, Facebook, IBM, Apple, that loser Microsoft and several more) would pay their fair share, merely their fair share.

The point of no return was reached when Barack Obama became president of the United States. Lets be clear, this was NOT his fault, but the point where we cannot avoid what comes next was achieved. If only people had woken up a lot sooner. But there we got past a point where the problems would accelerate and now we are almost at that point. And the banks will be no help. I tried to warn you a few times over. Some of their risk and liquidity is in US bonds and when the US forfeits payment your 401K and many other things will become worth close to nothing. So if you wonder where wealth of middle class incomes is, look towards Mexico. 

And will it get worse? Yes, but how remains an issue for now. Politicians will give way to wealth and rich friends first, so that they an get their slice and these people will go to Monaco, Dubai and the Bahamas. Many of them saw this coming and they already have places there, they have had them for years. So what can be done? Actually nothing, it is too late for that, all the whining and claims will fall flat and merely moves the timeline. The American children will know what true poverty feels like, they will get there at the end of their teens or early adult life. There are a few things that will happen, pushing forward bonds will be the easiest and convincing these owners to sell to appointed people or let it ride for a lot more, but that is a bill that adds a decent amount. Whomever has a billion in bonds and is offered 3.8% instead of 1.65% will consider it and I reckon that this is why we now see 20 years bonds (personal speculation). But after that the options go dark, really dark and that is what banks fear too, because the next bank run will take away a truck load of liquidity. It is like the stowaway that went for the happy shores or America, only to learn that the weather is foul and they suddenly realise that the cargo hold is filled with Nitroglycerine. Would you chance swimming, or hope for the best. Don’t forget that the shallows were YOUR saviour, not that much for a cruise-liner with combustibles.

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May 1, 2023 · 13:31

The premise of danger

That is what I feel is in play, but there is a word of warning, my premise is speculative. To see this we need to take a look at two new articles, both from the BBC. The first one is ‘First Republic makes last ditch bid to find rescue deal’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65441302). I will go into details shortly. The second one is ‘US Fed admits failure to take forceful action on SVB’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65428206) which came in a day earlier, but it all links to ‘I honestly don’t get it’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/12/i-honestly-dont-get-it/), which I wrote on March 12th. As such we have a growing concern that stretches well beyond 6 weeks and now we get “According to reports, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), a US financial regulator, sought bids for First Republic by the end of last week and has been assessing them over the weekend. Investment banking giant JP Morgan Chase is believed to be one of the banks invited to bid for First Republic, according to news agency Reuters. Bank of America is also understood to have been approached.” And in those six weeks I made a few clear presumptions/speculations. Yet NONE of the media looked into any of that, not even by their own accounts. The setting is that slippery and as such the media has shown that it can no longer be trusted. You see, there was a clear premise that some banks have too many US Bonds, but no one is willing t report on it and now people are withdrawing cash. The global setting becomes that putting your wealth in your mattress (or in a Saudi or Dubai bank) tends to be safer and that is not a good thing. No one is willing to look into the bulk of the US bonds and where they are, more importantly, no one is looking into which banks have US Bonds and how may they have of them, but the journalistic joke (ICIJ) was willing to play the NSA game (Credit Suisse leak) and emotionally speculate away whatever they could. The media is failing us all, because many are driven to ‘governmental’ needs. Yet, this is speculative, but look at what was published and what we are told, the numbers do not add up (neither do the topics). And in the second article we get “The US central bank has said it failed to act with “sufficient force and urgency” in its oversight of Silicon Valley Bank”, as such they didn’t learn in 2008 and they are seemingly not learning now. I use the word seemingly because of the Bonds issue, as I personally see it, some aren’t willing to report on connected matters and that is a whole different kettle of fish, but it is my view and if there is decent evidence proving me wrong, I will accept that. 

So when we are given “Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision, who led the review, said the US central bank should toughen its rules in response to what it had learned from SVB’s demise” we need to consider a few things. Basel III was created in 2010 (13 years ago) and in the US it was named the “Dodd-Frank Act” which was supposed to stop banks from taking excessive risks, which was partially repealed on May 24, 2018 by former President Trump. And now we have several new messes that could (in a most dire setting) bring about a new age of poverty in the US. Yet the larger setting that pushed for this is how many banks have US Bonds and how many do they have? 

And there is enough evidence out there, but for some reason the bulk of the media will not go near it, why not? If you follow the timeline and you start digging into 

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)
Signature Bank
First Republic Bank
Credit Suisse
UBS Group AG (they bought Credit Suisse)

A weird setting starts to evolve and I am not an economist, as such someone will tell me I am wrong, but when you start comparing where $20 trillion in US Bands are, the picture shifts. Some are well established ‘banks’ like Rothschild & Co, as such plenty will have bonds, but some took a chance on getting rich quick and the partial repealing of the Dodd-Frank act allowed them, as such several are now in problems and there are more in this level of problem, but someone is brushing these facts under the carpet (and the banks themselves are hiding issues), as such I expect to see more revelations like this over the next 2 quarters. I recon the US Central banks are doing whatever they can to douse that fire before a full baking meltdown is on the horizon and the media is assisting, because if they were not, we would see a lot more facts come to light. Or as my grandfather would say ‘the best secret keeper of an adulterer is a brothel’, to state that someone is getting rich of keeping the secret at present and as I personally see it, the media is assisting them. Why is that? It is (again as I personally see it) because you are no longer entitled to getting the actual news. You get filtered information. News that is censured and approved by share holders, stake holders and advertisers.

Take notice of that small fact and enjoy Monday, only 112 hours until the weekend.

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April 29, 2023 · 19:11

The price of exploitation

This time I am going in a different direction, one I know little (say: nothing) about, yet the news the BBC gives me is baffling me. I wonder if the US (and Hollywood) realise the dangers of exploitation, even more important how it could impact their economy. To start this we need to take a look at ‘How a Hollywood strike could affect your favourite TV shows’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65407703). Now to be clear strikes happen, they are almost a fact of life. You are either striking, or you get hit by the impact directly or indirectly. So here we get “The biggest issue is how writers are paid in the new streaming economy, with many reporting lower wages as digital platforms have upended traditional television and film productions, says the Writers Guild of America, the union representing television and film writers.” And then we get the ugly “Hollywood’s business model has been completely disrupted by streaming, and now writers complain of being asked to provide weeks or months of free rewrites of scripts” and that got to me. An institution that gets a billion or more per movie? That institution has to ask for rewrites under zero hours compensation? How fucked up is Hollywood? We can go in any direction, but Hollywood made $7,370,000,000 in 2022. I reckon shelling out 130-150 million for 11,500 Writers Guild member is not that big a leap, especially when you realise that “The last writers’ strike in 2007-2008 lasted 100 days and cost the California economy $2bn (£1.6bn), leading to many cancelled or delayed shows. Some have also credited it with boosting the proliferation of reality TV.” The business person in me states that losing 150 million is preferable to losing 2,000 million to a strike with the added loss of optionally successful TV series. As such I wonder where the greed driven stage of Hollywood is taking them, especially when Canada has its own production companies and they could get up to 100 days of advance house cleaning (the house names Hollywood). That is before you consider Brandon Hines who gives us “I just wrote on a show and I can’t eat, I rely on government assistance.” A series writer on government assistance? And you wonder why the writing guild is angry? Now there is another side, there are so many shows pushed out at present that I feel that something will have to give. A place like Netflix alone is allegedly spending $17,000,000,000 for content in 2024. I have no idea what the drill down is and it is likely too complex, yet I expect that writers are undervalued there as well. So what happens when the cream of the crop vacates to Canada or the UK (or Australia)? You can scream all you like, but these people seemingly have had enough and puts the pressure in other places too. All these TV hosts that suddenly cannot sound funny anymore. All these hosts that have nothing on the tele-prompter when that takes a front seat the Hollywood economy will take a dive whilst they rely on second or third class writers. So what happens to the Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) when it relies on writing students scripting the day away? What happens when an expected revenue of this movie ($1.7B) makes no more than $850M? I can tell you that the investors will take a run towards Canada and the UK, optionally Australia as well.

You tell me what the gain of greed is, because as I see it there is absolutely no positive side to that, but wait until May 8th 2023 and see shows (movies too) getting cancelled. All this was a simple application of Business Intelligence, an abacus was enough to set the parameters of this folly. The weird part is that we see “Hollywood’s business model has been completely disrupted by streaming”, they had years to correct for that and I would reckon that a revue savvy place like Hollywood would have their own regiment of BI people all over the place. So what did I see that THEY ignored, you tell me because I am at a loss.

Enjoy the weekend

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April 28, 2023 · 21:16

What’s the play?

That is the question I had before and again now when I read the AL Monitor article (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/04/saudi-arabia-seizes-127-million-captagon-pills-pomegranate-bust). There we see ‘Saudi Arabia seizes 12.7 million Captagon pills in pomegranate bust’. Now any nation will have drug problems, it is almost a fact of life. Some will give in and try it. But consider that the population of Saudi Arabia is almost 36 million. As such this shipment represents the ability to get a third of the nation high. And it leaves me with questions. Did these people want to get caught? Consider the simple setting. When you are dopey the dealer, you might be able to sell 100-200 pills at best. Perhaps in some areas of Aramco, near the monotone drilling (a pure speculation from me) perhaps 400 pills. To get that much pills implies a distribution system with 31,750 dealers. I know too little about Saudi Arabia to make that call, but if we adhere to statistics then the idea that Saudi Arabia has more than 500 dealers is almost preposterous and when consider the numbers something does not add up. So are these drug smugglers looking to get arrested? I reckon that it might be decently easy to hide 1000 pills in a pomegranate shipment, perhaps even 2000-3000, but twelve million? So I had questions and this is not the first time I see an article pass by like that, I had questions then too, but to be honest, this is a niche market I absolutely do not care about. So we see that two Egyptians, one Syrian and one Yemeni national were arrested. Four people from different nations (more questions) and as such they ‘thought’ to strike it rich? As such we get more “The highly addictive substance travels through Jordan to reach Gulf states, where it has been a drug of choice among disenfranchised youth, particularly in Saudi Arabia.” This gives us more, you see some numbers give us that this group contains 4.79 Million people, yet drug users tend to be male, so it is merely 50% of that and they ship enough to cover 100% of that group many times over? This makes zero sense, yet the idea that someone is TRYING to create a drug problem in Saudi Arabia, that partially makes sense (but the shipment is at least 1000% too big), yet that is also speculation from me. Moreover when you consider the setting, optionally smuggling via Yemen instead of Jordan makes more sense to me. There are a whole range of questions that shape in my head, but they are all related to the first premise, what is the actual plan here, because this is not an approach that any drug dealer would go for. To keep 3-5 years of evidence somewhere in their place of ‘trust’? The article also gives us “In March, Saudi Arabia seized 4.6 million amphetamine pills hidden in a shipment of ceramic toilets, sinks and washbasins and arrested a Jordanian national.” I seemingly more discrete amount, but still way above the normal amount. I wonder if they are also investigating in Saudi Arabia what the plan was of these four dopes, because this is not about a simple drug heist, this much amphetamines implies a very different stage and I can only speculate (which I will not do) on what that plan is, but consider the cost of these pills, the cost to create and what kind of incomes these 4 people had. When you add the elements up you come to the same conclusion as I did. This was about something else. Perhaps the drugs were a diversion? When you go back to some sources, one gave me “One Chinese website even advertises a “captagon tablet press” for $2,500 that can spew out tens of thousands of pills an hour. For a few dollars” this comes with the added question of the cost of the chemicals and the added source gives me “A Captagon pill costs just a few cents to produce in Syria or Lebanon” then consider that the maker would charge perhaps $0.50 per pill, that implies that the shipment represented a little more than $6,000,000. So where did these four dopey’s get that much money? And that is on the premise I hold, should the cost be $1 per pill (seems more likely) especially when the implied street value in Saudi Arabia is $20, the cost marker shifts buy a lot, so is one of these 4 wealthy? I personally doubt it.

Yet when you consider these elements the entire shipment of over 12 million pills makes less and less sense. This was not a simple drug shipment, or a simple smuggling operation. This is about something more and I wonder what I would find if I start data mining that evidence. From smuggling routes to financial data and that is before we consider that Saudi Arabia starts asking questions from the Syrian or Lebanese governments, they both would be in serious hot waters if they were in any way aiding drug smuggle into Saudi Arabia and still the largest question remains open: “Why that much drugs?” I end with a lot more questions than I had before the article and I reckon some Saudi’s might have the very same questions.

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April 26, 2023 · 02:31

Is the die cast?

That is the question, personally I think it is, America dug its own grave and I am not asking you to take my word for this. Lets take a look at two pieces of ‘evidence’ handed to us. The first is Al Jazeera. They give us (at https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/4/25/can-china-replace-the-us-in-the-middle-east) the headline ‘Can China replace the US in the Middle East?’ The question asked here is a much better question than you think. The article (by Erin Hale) gives us “China still does not have the ability to replace the US in the Middle East, where Washington has dozens of military bases and allies it has committed to defending. But Beijing might not want to take on that responsibility yet in any case, experts say” this was part of the short answer and it is a good considerations to have. The problem is that this is based on US sided ‘experts’. People like that have gotten too much wrong, yet are they getting this wrong? That is the larger stage that we cannot answer. You thin you can, but none of is actually can. But there are two more quotes that ‘sully’ the waters here. The first is “the United States has not conducted itself particularly responsibly for the last 20 years”, the second one is “Beijing is viewed as an ideologically neutral trading partner, which has long maintained a policy of non-interference in the domestic issues of Middle Eastern countries, from politics to human rights, making it a less controversial mediator than countries like the US” these two statements are strong. Beijing has no real experience in the Middle East, which also means they have no negative marks against them, which works in their favour. Yet the larger stage of security is in the hands of the US and that looks good in the eyes of the Middle Eastern partners. In addition, the US has more than three dozen military bases in the Middle East. A stage that not only is hard to replace, but there would be indications that China is uneasy trying to replace those. In addition it means a massive contribution of troops to the Middle East, a stage they do not fully comprehend, more important, they are likely to make a mess of certain parts in a time when they cannot afford them. 

This gets us to the second article, which has some links to the first one. It comes from the Middle East Eye (at https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-rejoins-worlds-top-five-military-spenders-says-report) where we are given ‘Saudi Arabia rejoins world’s top five military spenders, says report’ and this is the big part. You see, the article gives us that Riyadh spend an estimated $75,000,000,000 last year in military goods (hardware and software). The problem is that as of 2023 onwards a much larger slice of that cake will go to China. The US (EU too) messed up by a lot and that comes at a cost. The second part is that these military base options are to some degree connected to the sale of military hardware, now that is to an increasing amount falling towards China the US needs to do something, but they are left without options at present. We see “Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican Mike Lee – came together to introduce legislation that would require US President Biden’s administration to report on Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and possibly cut off all US security assistance to the kingdom.” A stage that sounds like a threat yet it comes with the opportunity for China and with that opportunity we see a much larger shift in staging. The US made their own bed, would not unite in one view and up to 50 billion will be whisked away from their table. In a stage where the US is one step away from a collapsing dollar and the implosion of its economy they have decided to bite that feeds them. How stupid is that? And in a stage where they could lose more and more oil, promising to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” is more than bad strategy. You see 67 journalists were murdered in 2022. How much actions were taken? The one that no one gives a hoot about is the poster child for the US, all whilst the evidence was lacking, the United Nations report reads like a joke and still people push that narrative. As such several countries, not just Saudi Arabia are in a stage to hand the US their walking papers. As the MEE ends with “Current and former US officials who previously spoke with MEE were back-footed by the agreement” and that is not all, the off balance part is the smallest detail. You see with all the banking issues, losing billions in revenue will have larger consequences and a new stage. Players like Chengdu will now have a much larger audience in 2023/2024, implying that the Airforce stage that once was will be no more. Both the US and Russia needs to accept that China is now a major player with the buyers that can afford 5th generation fighter aircrafts and that list of people allowed to own one will drastically increase, setting a new problem for the US, the EU and Russia. In all this I personally believe that the die was cast in 2018, some disagree and they are welcome to disagree. Some offer good explanations for their point of view, I might not agree but that is irrelevant. The question for the us is “is the die cast?” There is no real answer coming. Experts that are scared for their income, scared to give anything but a ‘pro-American’ view is fine, until reality creeps in. The reality is that both the US and EU are too close to bankrupt to accept these losses as is. I have no idea what they will do and their own issue is internal as their internal ‘opponents’ are trying to poison the political well. All those people trying to get the deal going get to deal with people shouting anti Islam propaganda and the Middle East has (as I personally see it) had enough of that. Now that China is making headway, the options change and for the US (EU too) not for the better. 

Enjoy the day. 

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