Category Archives: Politics

March 27, 2023 · 02:58

Speedy escalation dot who?

It started with something I wrote on February 3rd 2023 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/02/03/as-the-tide-turns/) when I wrote ‘As the tide turns’. There was some grumbling when I presented “some governments will start to draw out papers where Russians without permanent residency or citizenship will not be allowed to own anything” it was a natural progression, as such I felt decently certain that this would happen. Plenty did not agree and that is fair, but with Oligarchs all over the field, trying to secure what they can in places like Dubai, the future was decently fluidic. 

Now less than a day ago, I see a Tweet from Lithuania that Russians cannot get a VISA, they cannot get citizenship and they cannot own property and I think Lithuania is only the start. This will go further and now we get to see another side. This could be a larger tooth in a set of juridical teeth that is about to do something about Russian organised crime in many nations and they all it all to Vladimir Putin. Not only did his actions undid a century of goodwill for Russia, it in the same trend it undid the degrees of freedom of Russian oligarchs and now Russian organised crime will get a massive slap to whatever they owned and Lithuania seemingly started that stage. A stage that I saw coming because it is what I regarded as logical continuation. As such London who reacted the slowest of all now needs to give full steam or they need to answer questions like ‘Why did you do so little?’

Did I see the future?
Well, that is up for grabs, I presumed that certain steps are a natural continuation and this was one, to be honest, I had no timeline in sight, one usually does not have that with near natural time lines. But I expected it to be in the works and for a country like Lithuania to take that step has also larger implications. Russians have an interest in Lithuania, it is their smuggle route Vilnius – Kaunas – Klapeida that is now also under fire and that closes the routes to places all over Europe, they will now need to rely on other routes and there is not that much options via Poland, they already despised Russians long before the Ukrainian issues started, as such there will have to design new routes but where? I have no idea, that is not my forte or my data driven direction. 

No matter how I see it, larger changes are coming all over Europe and when the US does the same jump pro Russian political forces in the US will run for cover and they will be running everywhere that is petty much a given. 

So speculate or presume all you care and all you desire, but you got the news here first and yes, I do accept that Twitter is no verifiable source, but similar news is coming from the Baltic News Network and it seems that 16 hours ago Estonia started a similar direction, as such Russian routes and Russian opportunities are drying up and when you consider the US, these two nations have done a lot more in a month than the US has done in over a year. That part becomes visible when you investigate what corporations are still active in Russia, the answer should scare you.

Have a nice Sunday

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , ,

March 20, 2023 · 00:23

Two sides to anything

Yes, there are two sides to anything, there is their side and there is your side, then some say the third side is the truth, but that tends to boil over to both other sides. What matters is what we need to believe and in this day and age this is getting harder and harder.

The issue is the CBC article ‘U.S. ran secret probe into China’s operations in Canada, new book alleges’ (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-dragon-lord-probe-book-1.6783063) here we get to two issues. The first is not if it is true, we can merely assume that this is the case. The issue is that this is an event that started 30 years ago. So was there no aftermath, was there an investigation, and were protocols upgraded? We are given “The book says the project, code-named Operation Dragon Lord, led to an unnerving takeaway: that Beijing’s activities in Canada represented a security threat to the United States”, now we do get that Americans are good at tall tales and not just when phishing, it happens with a rod and with other equipment too, but if there was a real threat this threat wasn’t just for the USA, it would have impacted the Commonwealth via Canada and Canada as well, so where is the follow up? But then we get the most damning of all quotes. With “Canada was aware of these threats for 25 years and has allowed them to manifest” we see Scott McGregor, a former RCMP intelligence official give out the lash in no insignificant way. There is the thought that politicians are merely late to the party, but that would be wrong. Something set this off and there are a few scenarios that come to mind. If someone told me that MY country was being used to spy on the US and my name was David Vigneault, the first question in my mind is not what are they spying on, but ‘What are they spying on here?’ And that is the larger stage, from that statement we get to the implied thought that Canada has been overrun by sleeper agents and deep cover installations that have been creating a cover for decades. So how many Chinese people came to Canada since then? I do not know the answer and out of 100 perhaps 1 is the fishy one, but these people have been able to apply a cover for decades, good luck finding them now.

Then we get “The five-page memo says the American probe examined this alleged alliance of convenience between Beijing and criminal groups” merely 5 pages? The fact that there was a memo is not the setting, the mention that it was 5 pages is a concern, 5 pages over 6 agencies implies (not proves) a minor work that is little more than a homework exercise. I cannot tell how much of a danger China is, and with the wok seemingly done on it, neither can you.

The BS document by the UN on Khashoggi was at least 106 pages, as such they hid their BS in ink, China wasn’t given that courtesy with the 5 pages the semi-interested parties took. Weird eh?

Lets be clear, we spy on them, they spy on us. That has been a given fact for a very long time, as such I am not overly bothered, but the idea that a local intelligence agency is dragging its feet for decades is concerning, not merely because of China spying, but who else has been spying on us and we merely shrugged? Now we see more and more Russian actions all over the place and we see very little action against these people and now we do have a problem and that problem is likely to be seen all over the Commonwealth. I have no delusions that they are alone in this, they are likely the first one to be found dragging their feet which is not good. So what happens next? I reckon that is known when the CSIS reports to parliament this Monday, and that is the earliest when we learn what will be next.

Leave a comment

Filed under Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , ,

March 17, 2023 · 05:23

Confirmation and standards

That is what I was confronted with over the last 5 hours. I got a message a little before that and we will talk about it. I mentioned it in my previous article. It connects to more, but that is not important right now. What set me off was the article (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2268696/saudi-arabia) where we are given ‘Saudi energy minister: Kingdom will not sell oil to any country that imposes a price cap’. In this I agree, even if it hurts me badly. You see the US has been crying on expensive oil, but the price is set as well by Brent oil, an American firm. One that has the BIGGEST production of oil on the planet.

So when we are given “Spare capacity and global emergency stocks are the ultimate safety net for the oil market in face of potential shocks. I have repeatedly warned that global demand growth will outpace current global spare capacity, while emergency reserves are at a historic low.” I have no other thought but to agree. This has been going on for the better part of 2 decades. No one was complaining when oil was $40, but the setting differs. The US will not buy from Russia (which makes sense) and neither is Venezuela an option. The Arab nations are united in getting the best deal FOR THEM, which is done on a global scale in many commodities, but oil is not the US point of trade, it is THEIR anchor, yet no one looks at Brent oil and what it does, weird, isn’t it? We have seen the massive need to drop dependency on oil and in 2 decades nothing was done. The blame is all on governments for not acting, then 5 years ago an optional sidestep could be made, but the US government pissed of Elon Musk, whilst giving a free ride to that previous Twitter owner, that Dorsey thingamajig. But the Media on a global level REFUSED to ask him the hard questions. And now that it is too late, now that we see that a battery change was required 3-4 years ago, the Governments (especially America) start crying like little bitches. 

When a well can pump 10 cups of water an hour, and there are at any given moment 25 people needing water, some will go thirsty and that setting has been clearly there for over 2 decades. Why was nothing done? So when I see “NOPEC refers to a No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels bill, proposed US legislation that could leave members of OPEC+ open to prosecution under American antitrust laws. The bill, which has been periodically proposed for several years, was revived this month by a bipartisan group of senators in Washington amid ongoing concern about high energy prices.” And here the thought “Are you insane?” pops up. In the first why is Brent Oil not mentioned? And it is so easily fixed. Saudi Arabia (Aramco) could deliver 20% less oil to the US and Europe and sell that to China, everyone happy, or not? It is not a concern for high energy prices, it is the bloody mess of inaction which can be clearly shown for well over a decade and when there was a solution, you pissed off the industrial that could have aided you. So how is that for stupidity?

The second reel
The second reel is different, it is not connected to oil, but optionally to stupidity (as I personally see it). I have seen now confirmation on two of the branches that this will work and due to a few changes, there would be a growing need for the third branch as well. For me it could be good, and could is the operative word as Google was asleep at the wheel and let it pass and Amazon doesn’t seen to be waking up to the billions they can get in this. At present my hope lies with Kingdom Holdings and one other party. That one might not give me the full price, but it is better than nothing, in addition, keeping Microsoft away from there is prime concern, they can only screw up the IP, blame others, point fingers and then refer to miscommunications. I can do without that. There is a small option that Apple might pick it up, but it is not really their turf, so I feel uncertain about that thought. So it is in some regard inverted from oil. Oil everyone wants, and seemingly my IP no one wants. I reckon that the first one that buys it and see what they stand to gain, at that point everyone will come calling, like a Credit Suisse banker with an empty wallet, but that is my weird sense of humour.

The idea that I am right is nice, but I have seen enough confirmations in several directions to know I am right, but that is just me. I still check all forms of verifications, not merely to proof that I am right, but to confirm I was never wrong. That too matters, because I am where banks and oil consumers needed to be, in a place of checks and balances, something both parties require very very fast.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 16, 2023 · 18:07

Oh boy, there was more

It all started 4 days ago when I wrote ‘I honestly don’t get it’. I comprehended the stage just fine, it is the lack of comprehension of greed, what people will do to fill their own pockets at the expense of everything and everyone. You see Basel III was published in 2010 after the first meltdown, it was extended to 2015 with extensions going as far as January 2023. So 13 years and the whining bitches (aka banks) still will not learn. SVB is merely one example and the actions by congress made perfect sense. Now we have Credit Suisse and the setting changes.

It now needs (and apparently just received) 45 billion to be ‘secured’. This is a little more than the national budget of Qatar which is 53rd on a list of national budgets with 228 nations with on last place Wallis and Futuna. To give you a better picture, it is twice the amount Oman has for its citizens, they are in 68th position. They need THAT MUCH money. The issue is that big and do not talk to me about journalists or those clowns at the ICIJ. They are all about their Pandora papers and what a joke they are. 

You see, I stated in the first article the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) and now we see the BBC give us (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64964881) giving us “After Credit Suisse shares plunged on Wednesday, a major investor – the Saudi National Bank – said it would not inject further funds into the Swiss lender”, it matters and I will get back to this. In the mean time The Guardian gives us “The bank had been forced to delay the publication of its annual report last week after a last-minute call from the US Securities and Exchange Commission relating to what Credit Suisse described as the “technical assessment” of revisions to cashflow statements going back to 2019. The bank said those discussions had now been concluded” I believe it is more, I personally believe that was why Yellen got involved in day one. I think the SVB and others have too many bonds and they are not ready to mature yet and with interest up these things are making banks bleed money and they are bleeding a lot. You see, there is an estimated total of TWENTY THREE THOUSAND BILLION DOLLARS in US government bonds floating around and I reckon the SVB and Credit Suisse are now in levels of pain, they had too many of those. As such the outstanding part, not merely these two represent $23,000,000,000,000 and no one can cover it they are all stretched beyond thin. This is what I expect is happening and I warned for this as early as 2016, there is a point of no return and the banks are way past that. Putting your IP in the USA is about to become one of the most expensive jokes tech firms have faced in well over half a century.

Could I be wrong?
Yes, that is the case, but that can be tested quite easily. You see, if you make a tally of where all these US government bonds were and you set that tally in a mineable solution especially with pre 2016 and past 2016 when Dodd-Frank got cancelled you will learn a few things and this is what I saw on day one, but weirdly enough the media is not going there (neither is the ICIJ), so you get to wonder why.

Oil in the family
now we get back to the Saudi National Bank. In this I agree with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Oil is a commodity, there is no cap, if you need oil more and more, you are working from the wrong business plan and if that relies on exceeding your budget by over 30 trillion dollars you get what’s coming to you. In addition I would add the Republican Party making small talk stating that they need to pull away from Ukraine, I lose the little sympathy I had left for them. The US has slammed Saudi Arabia again and again, in some cases with the assistance of a United Nations essay writer. There is only so much people will take. They had the option to help Saudi Arabia create a nations defence strategy, they bailed out and now China is there. They made fake promises and most were not kept and now we see banks asking Saudi Arabia (in Oliver Twist style) can we have some more please? 

As such we see event after event and now that things are on the rails, the train has speed and they just ran out of rails. This is early and before I expected it, but I never considered the impact of Russia being stupid and attacking the Ukraine, it merely escalated things. 

America has two options, does it become part of China or part of Russia. It seems that the Republicans want to be part of Russia, the rest I do not know, but we are now in the process of the final financial act. And my evidence? Investigate the CET1 setting of EVERY bank (especially the two in trouble) and then look at where the bonds are and how many of these bonds are/were with the SVB and Credit Suisse. I have no doubt they both have too many. Then consider Basel III and see how many banks hold up at that point. They were warned for 13 years, so let them rot, let them collapse and let the investors and share holders take the fall and live life in minimum wage. 

And in all this, too many of the media are all about flaming and not doing too much about it, merely pushing towards bailouts. That time has gone as I personally see it. 

All whilst the Australian Financial Review gives us a mere 45 minutes ago “The failure of Silicon Valley Bank has exposed fresh divisions on Capitol Hill over banking reform, as US lawmakers from both parties trade blame for the lenders’ collapse and squabble over future legislation to shore up the financial system” squabble on something that was shown 13 years ago. Still think I am wrong? 

Enjoy the money you have, there might be a lot less soon enough.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 15, 2023 · 01:23

An actual surprise

That happens to us all and to me about an hour ago when I was about to go imitate a sawmill when a tweet reached me. The Tweet came from Democratic Jeff Jackson, United States Representative since 2023 for North Carolina. And the tweet was worth it, I would call it the best political video I saw in years. 

It gives a clear concise and brief overlook of the Silicon Valley Bank situation and the actions that are in play. Now, I do have questions but not on the video, everyone should see that one. The video can also be seen on YouTube (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFo-AQ5aQm0), so watch this. 

This was about soothing and assuring people and that is a good thing. It was a one of the best surprises I have seen in years. Then we get to the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/14/first-thing-global-markets-gripped-silicon-valley-bank-collapse) there we see
“The bank’s parent company, SVB Financial Group, and two top executives have been sued by shareholders over the collapse of SVB. The bank’s shareholders accuse the group chief executive, Greg Becker, and the chief financial officer, Daniel Beck, of concealing how rising interest rates would leave its SVB unit “particularly susceptible” to a bank run”, for this we have a few items and it is not the Simpson illustration even as that was a hilarious one (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ovfap2VtpHM) and even to some degree on point even as Bart Simpson never went to the Silicon Valley Bank, the run shows that something set it off, in the case as I saw it, the bank trying to raise 2 billion dollars. Yet I still have questions. You see, I comprehend what happened, I merely do not understand it. I never understood greed (as I personally saw it). I raised the issue (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/12/i-honestly-dont-get-it/) with ‘I honestly don’t get it’, there I made mention of the European phrase CET1 (Common Equity Test), it was an essential step into Basel III. When the US (under non-leadership of the town clown Donald Trump) lifted the Dodd-Frank act which stopped banks take unnecessary risks, without that act these dangers are back and now it comes to the question as I also gave you in the previous article “mainly US government bonds” that is the setting of the question which is:

How many US government bonds did EVERY US bank buy since the Dodd-Frank act was lifted and I reckon that the SVB bought too many, but they are nowhere near the only ones and as such the US needs to look at these stages and what is required to set a decent level of footholds in place so that the US banks can pass some level of Common Equity Test. Now, there is every chance that this list of banks are limited and that is OK, but remember that a run on two banks nearly started a new financial crises, which would close to immediately sink their economy. And make no mistake, I was a Republican once and I cannot stand this level of stupidity, so the Republicans get to wear that cloak of shame, all thanks to the Trump disaster creation team. He took such great pride of dwindling down Dodd-Frank, now let him face the fallout too.

The action was great, the question remains, but that is for another day, for now this administration needs to avert a new financial crises, and they seem to be doing just this. The end will not be known until early next week I reckon, but that is a pure speculative timeline.

Have a great day!

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 13, 2023 · 22:05

The first letter

Yes, sometimes the connection between articles is merely the first letter, it is what connects Aramco and Amazon. I had several articles to look at but they both started with the first letter. The first article is about Aramco. 

Aramco
The article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-64931074) gives us ‘Aramco: Saudi state-owned oil giant sees record profit of $161bn’ in this, I can tell you right upfront that there are days that I have nowhere near that amount in my wallet (weird eh?) Even as we are given “Aramco rode the wave of high energy prices in 2022,” said Robert Mogielnicki of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “It would have been difficult for Aramco not to perform strongly in 2022.” We might think all kinds of things, but the one that matters is missing. You see, the world removed Russia as a delivery agent of Oil and after that the choices were rather slim and Saudi Arabia was a natural first choice. But then we get a small stab. It is seen with “Aramco – the world’s second-most valuable company only behind America’s Apple – is a major emitter of greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change”, which might be correct, but was it not America and England begging like little chihuahua’s to deliver more oil cheaper? Would that not be a contributing factor to the emissions? So when I see “Responding to Aramco’s announcement, Amnesty International’s secretary general Agnès Callamard said: “It is shocking for a company to make a profit of more than $161bn in a single year through the sale of fossil fuel – the single largest driver of the climate crisis.”” Another partisan response from everyones United Nations joke Eggy Calamari. The individual who seems to be a Saudi hater right of the bat, like her best friend who is a Guardian ‘investigative’ journalist named Stephanie Kirchgaessner. I have written several pieces in this in the past. You see, Eggy can yap like the chihuahua she is all she likes, but lets see what happens when Aramco lowers output by 20%-30%, what BS ballad will she utter then? And towards the Guardian, like the BS articles on private jet owners. The Environmental report a little over 1 year back, when we were given that 50% of all damage came from 147 facilities in Europe, who of them spend any time looking into that? 147 facilities creating 50% of the damage, now that does not put Aramco in the clear, but they are not alone in creating climate issues, but leave it to these two individuals to spin BS. In the meantime lets see what happens when the Saudi government decides to shut the valves if that Calamari individual does not clean her act. Just a thought. Then we get “Saudi Arabia is the largest producer in the oil cartel Opec (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries).” Now this is true, yet the larger truth is that Saudi Arabia is not the greatest producer in the world, that is the USA by a fair amount. As such the Calamari shit becomes a debatable issue on a few sides. As such we need to consider what the Saudi government does when it had enough, when they close the taps by as little as 5%, there will be widespread economic issues for both the US and EU, as such we need to start looking at the actual image, not the image from some hating dodo in the UN building. 

As such in the first yes, Saudi profits are up and the war has something to do with that, but mainly because people stopped buying Russian oil, so how much more oil did Aramco sell because of that? Oh and tanks are expensive they need 3 gallons per mile, how far does one tank go? Now consider that Ukraine has over 400 tanks. That implies 1200 gallons per mile and the war has been going on for over a year. They are not guilty, neither is Aramco. Russia started that event and they are still playing that game. So when we take a look at the bigger picture, Aramco has a commodity that everyone needs, everyone wants and most of them desire. Prices go up especially when Aramco has 100,000 barrels per hour (simple speculation) and each hour people are trying to buy 125,000 barrels. It is a simple economy and it as in place for several decades. So stop whining like chihuahuas and either come with an alternative, buy less oil or shut up. That is my simplistic view on the matter.

Amazon
The second article touches Amazon. I saw it (at https://www.thegamer.com/nobody-wins-if-amazon-luna-succeeds/) it was a debatable article from beginning to end. I have personal connections here, as such, I am a little biased. The title ‘Nobody Wins If Amazon Luna Succeeds’ was like a red flag to a bull. It is wrong on many levels. You see we all win when Luna succeeds. Luna is the beginning of a new stage in gaming. Streaming gaming can up the ante for gaming in many ways, I have written about it several times. It allows for much larger games, it allows for more versatile games and for an evolving game line. Now this is all possible on a PS5 (a console I love), but only in limited way at present. Nintendo cannot go near this because it is limiting in other ways. Still the Nintendo Switch is a system I love and now that Metroid Prime remastered is released I play it a lot more than anything else. That too is gaming. After 21 years Metroid Prime is just as addictive and beautiful as it ever was and I still claim that no FPS can get near this game, this game is a reason to buy a Switch, even as aSony fat with my PS4 and PS5 I make that claim. Gaming is seen in many stages and many ways and the Luna is merely the next wave towards gaming. The next issue is “Amazon Luna and Google Stadia have the same problem – there simply aren’t enough games to guarantee success” that is a mistake that both Amazon and Google had, I set the premise to almost guarantee 50 million subscriptions (one essential rule comes into play) and they had the option to win this, but Google dropped the cloth and evicted the stage, now Amazon has the option to rule it all alone with plenty of games too, so whomever is making that claim (a Tessa Kaur), she is not looking at the field, there is a lot more and some makers had a starting advantage, but apparently they squandered the advantage and now indie developers could end up with the larger stage. So as we get to “It’s the same with game hardware – they’ll discontinue the PlayStation 4 one day, I won’t be able to repair it when it gasps its last gasp. That will be that, all my games will be unplayable.” We get the first element. The article mentions NOTHING about Microsoft, why is that? Yes, they will discontinue the PS4 at some point, yet at present I will have had a PS4 for well over 11 years and several of these games can be played on the PS5, so I could have that one game for another decade, that part is missing too. The element also missing is that any streaming system will need a proper 5G connection, in many cases there are issues with 4G and 5G is still in a deployment stage in some countries a hell of a lot more then in others. The other element missing is that streaming gaming sucks in rural areas which amount to well over 35% of Europe. We do not see that either. I believe that the Luna is the next generation and with a fully deployed 5G it becomes a hell of a lot better and when developers start thinking of streaming as the ultimate goal, not some game that ALSO plays on the Luna, the game changes a lot more in favour of the Amazon Luna. Streaming is the future and we are only seeing the start of it at present. Microsoft is making their Xbox cloud gaming claims and they are hopelessly lost. Even as they are betraying their population, even as their consoles are not getting it done, they stand to lose a lot against Sony (console) and Amazon (cloud) and that is their real fear. Google might have bailed, but that doesn’t mean that Amazon will too, they actually have a few additional options that they might not have considered yet (speculation on my side). And that is where Apple comes in. If Apple (in their own way) starts in this field, Amazon will have a tough opponent. Microsoft is hopelessly lost and when Apple comes into play they will be doomed. But that is for 2024 I reckon. So far I have faith that Amazon will deliver in the end and create forward momentum in cloud gaming. They need not spin anything, they merely have to create the titles and the population, a setting they have a better hand on then Microsoft ever did. But that is merely my view on the matter.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Gaming, IT, Media, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 12, 2023 · 22:23

I honestly don’t get it

It started early this morning when I saw ‘Silicon Valley Bank: Regulators take over as failure raises fears’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64915616), now I have never denied my lack of economic knowledge and these Simple Voluptuous Bobo’s should know a hell of a lot more than I do. So when I read “a key tech lender, was scrambling to raise money to plug a loss from the sale of assets affected by higher interest rates. Its troubles prompted a rush of customer withdrawals and sparked fears about the state of the banking sector. Officials said they acted to “protect insured depositors”.” You see, this left me with questions. Bankers should know this stuff, they should know about margins and leave room to spare to take a breather when things tenses up. So when I read “The collapse came after SVB said it was trying to raise $2.25bn (£1.9bn) to plug a loss caused by the sale of assets, mainly US government bonds, which had been affected by higher interest rates.” When one bank needs to cover losses to the effect of more than 2 billion dollars things go south fast, yet it was that one part “mainly US government bonds” that send my non-knowledge off flying. You see the US has a debt of well over $30,000,000,000,000. Is this the first signal that the US debt is buckling banks? I honestly do not know that, I am asking. You see, the fact that I see “Concerns that other banks could face similar problems led to widespread selling of bank shares globally on Thursday and early Friday” supports this. That does not make me right, I simply do not understand this setting and the setting that it merely happening to one bank. Then we get “US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she was monitoring “recent developments” at Silicon Valley Bank and others “very carefully”.” One bank goes the way of the Dodo and she wakes up? This does not make sense to me. Especially when other banking Bobo’s (read: fat cats) are not responding to this. Then we get “The firm, which started as a California bank in 1983, expanded rapidly over the last decade. It now employs more than 8,500 people globally, though most of its operations are in the US.” Now this makes it not the smallest bank, but we also see that HSBC shares fell 4.8% and Barclays dropped 3.8% that ain’t hay. This implies that either the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is a lot larger, or the bonds are taking a massive dive and I wonder is this the beginning of the end for the USA? 

I am not telling it is, I am asking if it could be. We see the sleep sussing by people like Alexander Yokum and we get that, but consider that this hits one bank that needs to secure over 2 billion. Did they buy up way too much bonds and how many banks have bonds and how much bonds do they have? So when I see “Silicon Valley Bank would not have lost money if they hadn’t run out of cash to give back to their customers” did we not see a similar setting in 2016 in the wake of the LIBOR scandal? Perhaps they are two different things, but I remember something on Basel III, it was about stress testing and liquidity requirements. It was something with CET1 (Common Equity Test). I only know about it because it was a big thing in a program called Clementine, people were all over this and a program called Clementine was bought by SPSS and it became SPSS Modeler (later bought by IBM). So I saw the emails pass by, but it was not on my plate and this was a decade ago. So in a decade someone ignored the Common Equity Test? That is what it looks like to me and I will admit that the article has limited information and this is not the case, but this landed on the desk of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen? One bank? She wouldn’t even read my love letters (her glasses are too thick), so this one bank has her attention? Things do not add up, but that is my take and there is every chance I am wrong. Yet I saw a few articles and no one seems to be asking questions and that seems weird to me. 

Still my brain is asking, is this merely the first sign that banks are anchored to the titanic as American bonds are dragging these banks down. And the SVB is merely the first one as it had too many of them. I am ready to be called wrong, but the media isn’t looking very active. I do not care, I have been in a haze of achievement with my 8 IP’s and the fact that both Gucci and Tiffany are driving in my IP minefield 9 months after I published my stories on Augmented reality. I was in a daze of happy feelings and a bank that is not on my continent did not worry me, but HSBC is, so the puzzlement came back and the surprising nature was that one bank should not see the reactions of Janet Yellen, she is too big for one bank, as such my worry started. Was this the beginning of a lot more?

4 Comments

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 8, 2023 · 22:24

As media proves itself useless

Yes., I have been on this horse a few times, but I never expected this to happen, well, not a first tier media outlet. Yet, lets not give away the game just yet. Lets first look at the evidence. It started with one person correcting another. 

The correcting party is a Dutch man named Ties Joosten (@TiesJoosten). We get the information that the retweeted man was not a farmer, more importantly the man was not from Frisia (a province in the north of the Netherlands), we also get that this story was copied from Facebook, from a man who is a Frisian farmer. The man who retweeted it was from Zeeland (a province in the south west of the Netherlands). Yet, that message is also incorrect. They made reference that they were peak loader as such there were troubles. 

Ties found out that the Frisian province (@provfryslan) had not designated anyone as peak loaders, none of the provinces of the Netherlands apparently had named anyone a peak loader. The statement is that they are forced to close. More importantly Ties learned from @provfryslan and @FTM_nl that there were no forced closings. More important, this farmer volunteered to be bought out. So there was no forced closing, more important, even as the buy out numbers would be confidential.

What is public is that this farmer received for hundreds of thousands of euros subsidised payments which was found through @provfryslan. 

Which gets us to the final image which gives us the alleged disinformation bringer @Evavlaar brought a message from a farmer who is not a farmer, gives a setting whilst the real farmer in question volunteered to be bought out.

And that is the end of the intro. You see, this problem is a lot larger than you think. It is Forbes who have seemingly lost the settings. With the article (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/dianafurchtgott-roth/2023/03/06/climate-driven-technology-forces-out-europes-farmers/) we get “Thousands of Belgian and Dutch farmers are being sacrificed on the altar of climate change. They are losing their livelihoods as their governments crack down on emissions of nitrogen oxide (from manure) and the use of ammonia in fertilisation.” So which Dutch farmers are losing their jobs? Who was sacrificed? This is on the editor of Forbes Randall Lane. Even as the article comes from Diana Furchtgott-Roth, the editor is responsible. So can we get a list of these thousands of farmers? Can we get a top-line write-out of the numbers? As I personally see it Randall Lane has three options remaining, he fixes the mess we see here, he becomes an uber driver or a barber. That is more options than I ever had. 

The media is showing themselves to be every bit as useless as they always were. With this one event Forbes moved from the shelf of top tier magazines to a mere third tier. We always has issues with materials published, but now we have additional pressures on the quality of the magazines and newspapers. Too lazy to vet the information, to lazy to check numbers. It is all about deadlines and having the juiciest story, accuracy be damned. If it wasn’t for a man named Ties Joosten, we would think that the Dutch government is the big evil, instead we now see that the media is allegedly the big stupid.

Have a great Wednesday!

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , ,

March 7, 2023 · 23:04

That awesome moment

These moments happen to us all, some we see the moment we see them, some we see after a while when things sink in and there is a third option, but we need not think of that. This afternoon I was confronted with the first one by no one else by Arnold Schwarzenegger. That terminator, the Governator and he became so much more over time to so many of us. The man is a legend in his own time, optionally one of the most amazing governors in the history of the USA. And a lot of these actions were done before and after he was governor of California. To call him an actor is like referring to a Rolls Royce, a Bugatti, a Ferrari, a Aston Martin or a Bentley as a simple automobile. Some things cannot be defined, cannot be dimensionalised and we are all good with that, some exceptions break the consideration of any shape. We all get that (if not you need to brush up on things). 

So it all started with a Tweet (at https://t.co/P0VCDqPeb6) there we see the governator, slightly posh with all that silver in his beard. He gives us an interesting approach to stop hate, it takes 12 minutes and listening will be the best 12 minutes of this month, no exceptions (unless you got lucky with Laura Vandervoort). He talks about giving into hate and it was amazing. The man is so eloquent that he should be the US ambassador to the United Nations. Let me emphasise here that this is no reflection on Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield. I do not know her and I mean no disrespect to her. When you hear the words of Arnold they will hit you deep, much deeper than you think and that is the effect of a person like this. This is why he is so rare and legendary unique. 

So my Monday involved an amazing moment that I never saw coming. I do not give into hate, but the reminder that not doing so is not the easy path felt good, very good. You see, I had been noticing Islamaphobia to the larger extent in the US, Europe, and commonwealth nations. It is higher now then it was during the first crusades in 1095 and that is saying something. We were actively trying to kill one another. Christians as invaders and Muslims as defenders, all due to Pope Urban II and his posse of greed driven exploiters. Something needed to be done and I created IP for that approach. The fact that it impacts Facebook, Google and optionally Amazon is merely a side effect. For me that video was in part learning, in part confirming that I was right all along and in part in awe as I saw yet another side of Arnold Schwarzenegger. So be clever and watch those 12 minutes, the link is also given by YouTube (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsETTn7DehI). Even as he focusses on anti-semitism he actually addresses all kinds of hate and he does it well. So watch and learn, optionally a lot. Those 12 minutes were truly an awesome moment.

Leave a comment

Filed under Media, Politics, Religion

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 7, 2023 · 00:19

Words of a feather

That is at times the setting. It starts nice for me, as I got subjective confirmation that one branch of my solution is set to a stage that is unfolding EXACTLY how I expected it, and as such the first stage to 50 million subscriptions is close to set, the second branch is in the same setting, but requires something specific. Which now leaves the third branch and there is some friction there, but for the most, it should work, especially if advertisements on rules and regulations unfolds the way I hope. In this I created three advertisement tomes. Like the Yellow pages, but with a difference and if that works Facebook will see the impact too. A stage where I had the right approach all along and that feels good, especially when a player like Amazon buys it (I had hoped for Kingdom Holding to buy it), but beggars can’t be choosers. 

And this gets me to the story of the day. The story came from the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64859780) and is less then an hour old. And the reflection is seen in the article (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/02/27/on-the-subject-of-failure/) called ‘On the subject of failure’ which I wrote on February 27th, a week ago. There I wrote “The logistics of the Russian armed forces are a mess. Their soldiers are ineffective, their hardware is failing on many levels and their supply systems are (from my point of view) broken in many ways. Russia has a problem.” And here we get Yevgeny Prigozhin complaining about a lack of ammunition. He throws it towards ‘betrayal’ but I know better, all information shows us that Russia blatantly ignored overhauls from the 90’s onwards and the Russian Mafia took whatever they could and left the Russian bear with a flask of nail polish for its claws. A nice and shiny red (like the original flag). We are also given “Mr Prigozhin said his representative was unable to access the headquarters of Russia’s military command. It is unclear where the headquarters is located. Mr Prigozhin said it came after he wrote to the chief of Russia’s “special military operation”, Army General Valery Gerasimov, about the “urgent necessity to give us ammunition”.” Yes, in what army would one need ammunition? Oh right, the winning kind. The logistical issues I saw last week and I saw it a mile away was not some business appeal. It was a simple setting from my army days in 1981-1983. Logistics was giggled at from some branches, but the supporting units are just as important. It seems that the Russian army never learned that lesson. 

And it it always fun to see a mercenary use his fingers and shout “pew pew pew”, although, at that point his life expectancy is reduced to less than a minute. It will still be entertaining for the Ukrainian armed forces to see how desperate the Russian Army and the Wagner group have become. The Kyiv independent tells us that in a week over 12,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. I reckon that this is the Russian army and Wagner mercenaries. In addition they lost 317 tanks,120 artillery pieces, 56 MLRS and 482 cars and a lot more all over the field. These numbers are important, because when you realise that there is no train system in play to replace it all, you will get a first inkling on how bad the war is going for Russia and all these people fleeing to places like Argentina, that becomes a different story. As I personally see it under these conditions there is no life left in Moscow and the 6 million women there better start getting pregnant today, if not, by 2038 there will not be much of a workforce left in Moscow. On the upside, there is every chance that Russia could become a matriarchic society. The war took care of the man and the ones who did not flee Russia are about to be dead in an offensive that only one person seemed to have wanted. As the setting changes and the stage becomes clear there is a second danger one that becomes a big one if not tended properly. But that is a story for another day. For now realise that any organisation with substandard logistics gets run over fast and that is what we are seeing here. 

Just my point of view. Feel free to disagree.

Leave a comment

Filed under Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , ,