Tag Archives: Abu Dhabi

January 9, 2025 · 21:53

Is it semantics?

There is a question that the entire ‘annexation’ of Canada brings to light. Is it the setting of an unintelligent person to employ humor (I try to steer clear of the word stupid) or is there a larger setting? So what is the actual meaning of this?

The previous story gave you part of that, but CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-absorb-canada-response-1.7426177) gives us (optionally) more. It starts with ‘No longer a joke: Ministers say Trump’s threats to absorb Canada need to be taken seriously’ where we are confronted with “Trump said Tuesday he’d be willing to use ‘economic force’ to join countries”, we saw that and as such it would not be enough. 

But there is more, the setting of “Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Wednesday that U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s assertions that Canada should become the 51st state should be taken seriously, after he initially dismissed them as a joke. “The joke is over,” LeBlanc told reporters in French. “The president and his allies continue to repeat this — we know it’s not going anywhere — but the fact that he’s repeating it, it’s not very constructive.”” You see, this is true. But as we have surmised several times in the past, there is a need for any politician to seek the limelight (not that this is always wrong). As such we are given and shown that Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Immigration Minister Marc Miller and International Trade Minister Mary Ng all have their say. Yet, they all miss a few corners. You see we are overwhelmingly confronted with ‘influencers’ all seeking limelight and they ‘know’ that outbursts of Donald Trump give them the emotional rhetoric to flame settings. Now they all get the chance to drill into 40 million Canadians, all eager to grow their ‘momentum’ that is the lose for to a lot of this. And it is a lot like the setting in the Patriot (that movie with Mel Gibson). Why swap 1 political party 5800 kilometers away when you could have 58 political players 100 kilometers away? That would make no sense and Canadians need to be aware of this. What is the optional stage oil that people like Donald Trump and Kevon O’Leary (a Canadian no less) will opt for the direct marketing of 40 million Canadians to get the upper hand. Whatever O’Leary claims, he will be in it for the money. He wants to ‘secure’ his 400 million and preferably add some (hundreds of) millions to it and as I see it, anyway will do. The man is the direct opposite of Ryan Reynolds. He is in it for his money in his own way, but a lot more intelligent. Any party he engaged with enriched him and he enriched them by a lot. And there is a social/national pride in his achievements. That is the proper way enterprising and capitalism needs to work. I wonder why no one sees that. 

The larger issue is not that, it is the setting what the Commonwealth needs to do. At some point it is forced to bulk up their borders and that is the strapping setting. The UK, Australia and New Zealand will be forced to take a stance. Optionally not New Zealand, their Sopwith Camels don’t have the range to fly to the US. And I don’t think that they have an operational Army either, good enough for humanitarian jobs and rescue operations, but actual war on another shore? I doubt that.

So the Commonwealth could start crying foul and invite China to become the aid party of choice. China will love that, now it gets army and navy posts right at the front door of America. And now we get a new Cuban missile crises, but one at the front door of Los Angeles, Hollywood (the burning one), Chicago, New York and Washington DC. Yes, a real good sense of humor, mr. President elect. And let the influencers get the blame, it was his posts (allegedly) that is setting the flames sprawling and unlike the ones in California, these flames will have a national impact. Americans asked for this, they elected the man. So what comes out is on their own heads. As a commonwealthian I share the feelings of Justin Trudeau who said on January 7th (source: CBC) ‘Trudeau says ‘not a snowball’s chance in hell’ Canada joins U.S.’ And as that setting evolves I wonder if I should swap my optional future in Toronto with a more secure lifestyle in Abu Dhabi. The idea of having an apartment next to a mall (Yas Mall) and 4 tourist attraction becomes highly appealing especially if the Harry Potter universe is added in 2025 to the Warner Brothers Abu Dhabi park. Perhaps IBM needs IBM Statistics support staff in Abu Dhabi. With a (delusional) sign on bonus of $15 million I’ll be game to witch Australia for the United Arab Emirates. Still willing to move to Toronto (for the same amount mr Ellison), so what are my options? Unless something is done with the President elect, I merely see the UAE as an option. Consider that, that people are willing to leave Canada and the beauty it holds for a different kind of beauty (UAE, Abu Dhabi). And in the end it will merely delay the bankruptcy by 5 years, which gets Trump out of deep water and after that America will drag Canada into the same mess it created for itself, well done Wall Street.

All that for a sense of delusional humor? I will let you decide, yet consider that America opened to door to grow China in near exponential size, because they could end up with options in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. As Elon Musk has shifted his interest into ousting Keir Starmer from the post of PM of the United Kingdom (which is not the worst idea), however whatever he wants to replace him with will be a person HE can control and that is not on with me.

The last country will open doors all over Europe. How is the expensionarlism of Trump hitting you now? On the upside, these four nations will see a larger investment from China in their regions. Not the best option, but taking in account what America had in mind a optional preferable one.

Have an optional great day.

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January 7, 2025 · 08:49

UN Redundant Whining Association

Let’s see how we could optionally expose the media and set a department of the UN to the trashcan of useless to the maximum degree. It is a ride that has seen some time. The first part we got around late July 2024. The rumours went round and at some point the UN decided to put a stop to it and on August 5th (at https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/official-statements/investigation-completed-allegations-unrwa-staff-participation-7-october) we were given under the headline ‘Allegations on UNRWA staff participation in the 7 October attacks’. There we see “I acknowledge the completion of the investigation by the Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS) into the serious allegations that 19  area UNRWA staff members in Gaza were involved in the abhorrent attacks of 7 October on southern Israel” with the added “In April, an independent Agency-wide review by three reputable research centres under the leadership of former French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna concluded that UNRWA ‘possesses a more developed approach to neutrality than other similar UN or NGO entities’. The Agency has started implementing the recommendations of the review” and is fully committed to them.” Now we can accept that for what it is (I do not), but the massive takeaways here in this brief are ‘the completion of the investigation by the Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS)’, ‘an independent Agency-wide review by three reputable research centres’ and ‘UNRWA ‘possesses a more developed approach to neutrality than other similar UN or NGO entities’’ as such we could surmise that the UNRWA is well versed in tradecraft, they even pulled the wool over the eyes of the French foreign minister and three ‘reputable’ research centres. The other option is that these four players were in league with Hamas which I find unrealistic. 

Less then 24 hours ago we were given (at https://nypost.com/2025/01/06/us-news/un-watchdog-group-urges-dismantlingly-of-unrwa-for-enabling-crimes-gainst-humanity/) ‘UN watchdog group urges dismantling of UNRWA for ‘enabling crimes against humanity’’ we get the added “A United Nations watchdog group says the infamous UN relief agency that provides $1.5 billion a year to Palestinians should be disbanded for colluding with terrorists and “enabling crimes against humanity.” “The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) is neither independent nor neutral,” says a scathing new report by the Swiss-based group UN WATCH.” So, why did the OIOS miss this? More important, as we see that several Israeli news sources gave us parts of this already, why were these parts (as I see it) intentionally overlooked? It was not by all media, but the largest collection of media courtesans merely used part of the past news as a source for (as I personally see it) pursuit of digital dollars. And it took the watchdog some time to figure this out. Which I do not hold against them. But the larger setting is reached. The United Nations is as useless as some say they are and now in the setting with Trump and Musk, we can safely set the premise that the UN is a cost that the United States can avoid having.  As I see it António Guterres will have to do a lot more than smooth talking. There might be a setting where the UN could be disbanded. There is every cause to consider that the organisation’s 37,000 staff members could find themself thrown of that gravy train. To illustrate further I offer the image below. I cannot vouch for the numbers, but the image is powerful. So don’t use these numbers as is, trust but verify I say and so did some marine named Gibbs.

What it does show is that the UNRWA is as useless as some expect them to be and the crying newscasts we see now like ‘7 infants dead in Gaza from cold weather, inadequate shelter: UNRWA’ and ‘Social order in Gaza will collapse if Israel ends cooperation with UN aid agency, official says’ it is too late for that, the UNRWA is done for (unless massive amounts of evidence ‘suddenly’ comes forward. We saw in the beginning of December aid from the UAE get to Gaza. In the day after that we see armed masked men (supposedly Hamas) drive of with a whole stack of these boxes. We cannot hold the UAE on that, they did the almost unthinkable, they found hundreds of volunteer who created these care packages in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. What happens in Gaza becomes the question. So was the UNRWA involved? Or was Hamas merely a block away collecting these boxes? Your guess (or speculation) is as good as mine. However, when we consider the timeline from August I have to conclude that Hamas is the cancer on the Palestine people and they will not ever find release unless Hamas has been eradicated. 

It is a harsh reality we see here (I saw that about a year ago). But change has to happen and disbanding the UNRWA might be a first requirement.

Have a great day.

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December 30, 2024 · 17:38

Return of DM

You have probably seen it, I definitely have and they all call it “A call to AI arms” or something of that sort. It started an hour ago. I saw a security guard and I said “That shop is deceiving us, they say 50% of everything and they are still wearing all their clothes”, the guard was not amused, or perhaps his sense of humour doesn’t go that far. It might not have been overly funny, but at that moment a few things clicked together. And I was of to the races. You see, a few things clicked together and it started yesterday, but my subconscious had figured a few things out that my brain was still working on. 

Part 1
Part 1 woke me up to what some laughingly call AI. It was shown to me as a YouTube video. The video (at https://youtube.com/shorts/Kt_oGa4jLik) gives us an “AI” version of the statue. 

Screenshot

There is a setting that could work. Consider the increase of interest in Latin and Roman ways of life. To get these statues ‘brought’ to life has advantages. In the first we would not need to rely on actors for all of it and it would be one way to give more impact to the work of Edward Gibbon (1776) published the first volume of his The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Decline and Fall has been the theme around which much of the history of the Roman Empire has been structured. And it doesn’t click with too many of us, but when these statues come to life and as they give life to the writings something more comes to us, especially when it is in Latin. Now you see the first constraint. To see a few seconds of LLM on a statue is one thing, to get people to watch 24 times 45 minutes the constraint will become visible to all. Constraints are seen when the technology just isn’t ready and the utter bull we see on LinkedIn on a daily basis that our future is AI, when it doesn’t exist (yet) gives you a clear pause. But some people need this bubble to exist, their livelihood actually depends on this.

Part 2
Part 2 is LinkedIn. You see, I get a regular image on whether I am hiring. And the options are Yes and Not right now. This isn’t AI, or any kind of AI. This is Direct Marketing and that is what you resort to when you have no data. In 1998 I got a nice taste of that. Someone told me “You either bombard someone with DM, or you start getting clever about who you address the marketing to” it was a clever setting because that was when SPSS launched Answertree. The selected choice for those who wanted to waste as little as possible and when the penetration is a mere 4%, being clever will pay off nicely.

The setting we see now is a combination of constraints and abilities. We have no AI abilities and neither do the computers. As such certain people are trying to sell you a concept, an idea on how things will go and as such they create models that learn everything. So as such they are trying to WOW you with examples on YouTube and LinkedIn on how to do that, but the constraints are there and when you see the constraints you will try to get off that train and the people will have gotten you invested at boarding that train. As such you are hooked and then the limits become visible. 

Part 3
The third part came yesterday in a dream, but the setting was seen at least a month ago. I saw it somewhere in November when I stumbled upon it, but it never clicked, because I wasn’t looking for it. But yesterday in that dream I saw the interaction of SPSS (AS400 version) with an export via EXCEL into SAP Dashboard. I had not used that combination in over a decade, but the image was there. Now, I get that these numbers aren’t ‘inspiring’ to anyone else than investors and the board of directors at ADNOC, but to create traction you need inspiring views and the report (added below) doesn’t have that and that is not on ADNOC, you need a better setting for that and that is usually where the car sinks (or strands). 

As I personally see it, constraints are surpassed when you give free reign to data to create interest and one place to do this is using SAP Dashboard to create this (originally called xcelcius). That is when market research used the combination to create visible waves in a new setting that people had not seen before and that creates the traction they needed. So what about the numbers shown via a dashboard? It isn’t just oil that requires presentation. You see Abu Dhabi has International Holding Company (IHC), Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA), ADNOC Gas L.C. and First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB). These four represent 1.5 trillion in revenue. I reckon that they could use a more visible setting in presenting self and that is merely in one location. And no AI was needed here. A mere look at presenting different and showing themself in other ways. When you realise what dashboard can achieve, they will achieve more all whilst AI is still being created. So whilst we applaud the LLM (and DML) of statues, the moment one person states that Julius Caesar can give voice to his work (for example Commentarii de Bello Gallico) and the constraints make it fall short, you will realise that there is some length to go until AI is an actual reality. 

That was the parts my dream didn’t give me and a simple sign that bustled with inaccuracies (of everything) that was when my brain clicked the part together. OK, I can be slow too. Yet I take pride in my slowness, especially when my brain refuses to wake up, which it did to me today.

So have a great day and remember that tomorrow is the last day to learn what sex 2024 was about.

ADNOC Distribution_Q3 2024_FS_ENGDownload

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December 19, 2024 · 00:50

The stage of tomorrow

Yes, many have a tomorrow stage, yet in all fairness as I can see it, the UAE is jumping forward by leaps and bounds. Only today did I see the announcement that was given in April that Harry Potter is coming to Abu Dhabi. The capital of the United Arab Emirates as about to make a dent in tourism. It already was, but now there is even more to enjoy. It already had Waterworld, SeaWorld, Ferrari World, the Yas Mall but now it is enhancing and enlarging Warner Brothers world with the setting of Harry Potter. I don’t know when it will open, but I reckon that it should be ready before the summer will be making its announcement in 2025. For America it might become a nasty shock. Orlando has put a decent effort in making the enhancements to Universal a massive project. The Epic Universe will be five parks in one right next to the original Universal park. And there is enough for all, but it is the first time that the Harry Potter fans in the Arabian peninsula get handed this world to their front door. There is more, because Universal might be seen as more of the same (it is not). But Abu Dhabi is presenting itself as the family outing of choice. This is not merely done through advertisements. The many families and couples visiting these parks are all outspoken positive on their adventure. Not through influencers, simple people. A family from the UK with mom, dad and son show the world what an amazing time they had. An Australian couple (not the Hemsworth family) do exactly the same and YouTube is filled with people who visited these parks and are outspoken positive over the experience. 

Now that Harry Potter is coming Abu Dhabi can be certain that thousands more visitors will be coming their way. In the us (2023) 1247 people were asked how they felt about Harry Potter. Only 3% was not a fan and 47% were avid fans. That implies that Abu Dhabi will be the place to be and with Yas Island where the parks are as well as some hotels are, the people would want to splurge in their 2025 vacation. With several parks in the vicinity (Waterworld and WB are neighbours) with the WB hotel between the two. And on the other side of the hotel is the Yas Mall with Ferrari world. OK, the hotel is 10 minutes from the Yas mall, but there are busses, and in all these places there are affordable food places. There is something for everyone. The United Arab Emirates seems to end the year on a high note and I reckon that there is plenty of fun to be had. 

I reckon that with Dubai being a mere 90 minutes by bus away, there is every reason to have a vacation in both spots. Week one in one place and week 2 in the other place. People could end up having the vacation of a lifetime. 

The one surprising thing for me was the UK couple where they also talk about the prices of the food places they visited. With the comparison of UK prices, the UK seems somewhat expensive in comparison. 

I reckon that as soon as the HP experience comes closer the YouTube presentations will show that Orlando might have priced themselves out of this race. I don’t think that everyone will take the different destination, Epic Universe looks too good for that, but some will rethink where to go to in 2025 and some should at least consider that path. There is no reason to compare the two, but consider that Yas Island has a Wet’n’Wild (Australia) alternative next to Warner Brothers world and with SeaWorld the alternative to the one in San Antonio you see three parks close to one another. Not too many places can offer this, but one of them is Abu Dhabi. And there is much more on this island.

Off-course there is an alternative reason, as the UAE is a zero tax country, the combination for a new Apple or some other thingamajig on the really cheap side makes this an easy choice and with a mere 90 minutes between Dubai and Abu Dhabi the choice for most of you becomes really simple. 

Have a great Thursday, for me it started 45 minutes ago.

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December 16, 2024 · 18:57

The statistics are against me

Yup, that happens and I don’t believe it is a worrying issue. You see, it started a little over a year ago and I created my first (sort of) script. It is called ‘How to assassinate a politician’ which I later ‘reset’ to ‘Essay’. MY first script was meant specifically for an islamic audience which could have graced the walls of the UAE or the Saudi media bosses. I saw the story and it was my response to an Islamophobe population. And how to better serve it than to assassinate the biggest European islamophobic of all Geert Wilders (now PM of the Netherlands). I thought it was an excellent idea (a pure personal thought). Yet now I am confronted with ‘How the creative economy drives growth in the Middle East’ (at https://economymiddleeast.com/news/how-creative-economy-drives-growth-middle-east/). Here I see “In the UAE, a global creative hub, Dubai Media City is home to a talent pool of over 40,500 creative professionals”, so what was I thinking? Well, the short of this is that I write to feed the creative beast in me. I was unaware of just how large the Media City population was, and if you go by that setting you will never get anything done.

And whilst you are mulling over “The UN Trade and Development Creative Economy Outlook 2024 highlights the crucial role of creative industries in global trade and economic growth. According to the UNCTAD survey, the creative economy contributes between 0.5 percent and 7.3 percent of GDP and employs 0.5 percent to 12.5 percent of the workforce in various countries. “The creative economy has the right forces pushing its sails. This is not just art. It is an economic powerhouse that we must harness together, leaving no one behind,” stated Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of UNCTAD.”” You see, it is nice to hide behind numbers at one setting, but the source of the numbers matter a well. I find a little worrying setting behind the statement “The creative economy has the right forces pushing its sails. This is not just art. It is an economic powerhouse that we must harness together, leaving no one behind” my issue is in one direction “leaving no one behind”, which is nice, but that is a political statement and Grynspan was in the past Grynspan was a professor and researcher at the Economic Science Research Institute at the University of Costa Rica. This is not some anti statement. I always wonder and become ‘skeptical’ when a politician makes a “leaving no one behind” in their setting. Because that tends to rally towards “We were however forced to make choices” and that always goes at the expense of Art, especially when dollar numbers are involved. That and the setting of “employs 0.5 percent to 12.5 percent of the workforce in various countries”, which is quite the distribution. So where is it 12.5%? Hollywood with its 153,859 villagers? Some other consideration would be ‘the UNCTAD survey’, which I am not attacking now, as I have never read it. But the stage of a survey calls with me the setting of data. What data? What was filtered? How was it collected? What nations participated? Indonesia has around 277.5 million people, how many does its media (online and other) have? Simple questions really. 

When we dig into the matter, we see “Middle Eastern countries recognise the potential of the creative economy. In the region, the intersection of the digital and creative industries, in particular — encompassing the use of artificial intelligence (AI), Web3, and virtual reality — is driving innovation and economic diversification.” I still shiver at the notion that AI does not yet exist, no matter how many players boom the bubble of the AI vibe, it does not yet exist and we need to take notice of this. It might be fuelling the desire for it to be here, but it isn’t and when the world starts wondering the simple equation of “LLM’s vs AI” and true data parsing, its verification process and programmers with its algorithms the statement “According to a white paper by Dubai Design District and Dubai Media City, the global digital creative economy could grow by 11 percent annually, reaching a staggering AED27 trillion by 2030.” I fear for the fallout it precedes. And like the other papers the question of population, collection and reading the data will get a much higher priority. I winder how certain power players will address and respond to “a staggering AED27 trillion by 2030”, you see, joy of a revenue is nice, but the fear of it falling short in 5 years will be on the forefront of nearly every mind who depended on this fuelling stage. 

There is a side I fully agree with. It is seen in “In November, Dubai Media City underscored the essential role of multicultural creativity at this year’s Global Media Congress held in ADNEC Center Abu Dhabi.” I believe that true creativity can only be seen in a multicultural setting as such the UAE has a jump on all other nations as I personally see it and even as I shiver at the 40,500 setting (I am not debating or attacking it) I understand that my script had very little chance to begin with. I am still proud I wrote it and there are three more coming (not with Islamic values in mind), but that is the state of the world. Creativity is where our thoughts take us. And we respond as we would or as we can. The first one was islamic in nature, but that doesn’t mean all will be and multicultural is the first step of being truly creative. What matters to me are a few things and the stage of the numbers is one, articles rarely spell that out and as such it becomes my setting that I wish I knew more of UNCTAD and their numbers, because it is at the heart of the matter here. And here is the spiller (or killer). You see, the UN Trade and Development has a UNCTADstat Data centre. I took a look (at https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/) where I found “International trade in creative services: estimates for individual economies” an experimental part that has data from 2010 to 2018 and shows us Saudi Arabia, but not the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as such I wonder where the numbers are coming from. The article does not give us that part. I saw the Creative Economy Outlook 2024. The word ‘Statistics’ is given to us 23 times, and always with references like {Key Statistics and Trends in Trade Policy 2022. UNCTAD/DITC/TAB/2023/2. Geneva.} Yet the report gives us no real numbers (like raw data) or the reference to raw data has exactly 0 hits. As such I tend to have a more skeptical view on such a presentation. As such when ‘confirming’ the survey, I see another ‘hitch’ the fact that the phrase ‘in countries where data is available’ is missing from the article. It happens, but as I see it, it is kinda sloppy. With the rather large setting shown (in the UN pdf) that we see “inputs received through the 2024 UNCTAD Survey on the Creative Economy from the following countries: Albania, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Benin, Cambodia, China, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Libya, Malaysia, Mauritius, Montenegro, Mozambique, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Seychelles, Slovenia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Uzbekistan and Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.” And here we get the other shoe dropped. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are not mentioned at all. This is not on these countries, but as I see it The editorial of the Middle East economy has a little explaining to do (as I personally see it), it might be merely semantics, but that is at times how I roll.

And there is more on the graphics, one pie chart merely shows Saudi Arabia and the UAE as part of the EMEA region, as such I wonder which part of the 21% is Europe, because that sets a much larger premise of advertisement per region and population. There is no real way that Saudi Arabia and the UAE can compete in advertising against a population of 742 million europeans. As such I start to develop questions (as I would).

Well that was it for now, I’ll add the United Nations PDF at the bottom, it took me less than 10 minutes to scope out the questions you see here and if I took a little more time I will find a lot more. But that is the setting of a political brief (as I see it), I also didn’t see (I might have missed that) on the definition of the media and what sources are set to what medium. You see, there is a chart on Global video games revenues, and predictively set (based on data) this is always an upward spiral because there are no sources (or data) available for the Playstation 6, the Nintendo Switch 2, or the Tencent handheld. They are the tomorrow systems and there is no data on any of that a present. But the larger audiences are already looking into these parts. So what gives on the data?

A mere simple question that has no easy answer, I get that, because presumption is always on what is known, but take the simple setting in 2012 the PS4 was released. It got more than 50 million consoles out and obliterated the Microsoft product. In 2016 Microsoft merely gave us all Xbox live numbers. So when we see that, what numbers does UNCTAD have to set the Total video games revenue from 225 to 312 billion and Video games advertising from 75 to 137 billion between 2023 and 2027? A lot higher than Traditional games which went from 55 to 62 billion? The numbers do not reflect each other. As you might guess that sets gaming in a dead drop against advertisement, a bad business practice as I personally see it. And I could go on but when you see it was a forecast based on PwC’s Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2023-2027 (so based on what numbers?) This is merely what I found in under an hour. As such question all numbers that have no accompanying response setting (aka N). 

Also when we get the Countries with the most significant art markets by value of sales in 2023 and we see USA, France, UK, China and other with France at 7% and other at 15%, where do the UAE and Saudi Arabia end up? Consider that a place with 40,500 members do not surpass France and are part of the 15% What is the setting for them? I wonder if the Middle East Economy had those questions in mind when they released that story. As I see it a simple question really.

1416030-ENDownload

Have a great Monday.

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December 8, 2024 · 22:46

The losing bet

That happens, we make bets. We all do in one way or another. Some merely hurt our pride and/or our ego. Some deals hurt others and there are other settings, too many to mention. But Reuters alerted me three hours ago on a deal that will have a lot of repercussions. The article ‘US clears export of advanced AI chips to UAE under Microsoft deal, Axios says’ (at https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/advanced-ai-chips-cleared-export-uae-under-microsoft-deal-axios-reports-2024-12-07/) is one that has a few more repercussions than you imagined it had. The global loser (Microsoft) has set up a setting where we see “The U.S. government has approved the export of advanced artificial intelligence chips to a Microsoft-operated facility in the United Arab Emirates as part of the company’s highly-scrutinised partnership with Emirati AI firm G42, Axios reported on Saturday, citing two people familiar with the deal.” Microsoft is as desperate as I think they are with this deal. They probably pushed the anti-China agenda and made mention of the $1.5 billion dollar investment deal. And as we are given “The deal, however, was scrutinised after U.S. lawmakers raised concerns G42 could transfer powerful U.S. AI technology to China. They asked for a U.S. assessment of G42’s ties to the Chinese Communist Party, military and government before the Microsoft deal advances.” And we are also given “The approved export license requires Microsoft to prevent access to its facility in the UAE by personnel who are from nations under U.S. arms embargoes or who are on the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security’s Entity List, the Axios report said.” In this I have a few issues.

In the first there is no AI, not yet anyway as such the investment is going the way like water under a bridge. Microsoft knows this as such they are betting big and they have the US government backing them. In the worst case it will be the US government putting up the $1.5 billion themselves and with the anti-China sentiment that is a likely result from this.

In the second the setting that Microsoft is banking on is a loop setting with multiple exists. Yesterday the Financial Times informed us ‘OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching ‘AGI’ clause with Microsoft’ (at https://www.ft.com/content/2c14b89c-f363-4c2a-9dfc-13023b6bce65) the events are piling up and as I see it Microsoft is on the edge if desperation. You see, it all hangs on the simplest setting that there is no AI (not yet at least). What we have is a setting with LLM’s and Deeper Machine Learning and it is clever and it is a ‘optional’ wholesome solution to a lot of paths. But it is no Artificial Intelligence. You see, as all the laws are part of ethics and ‘AI’ people look around and think that there is ‘awareness’ of solutions. There are not. It is all data managed, a somewhat clever solution to people seeking an aware-like solution in data and some kind of knowledge discovery mode. It all could be clever, but it is still no AI and at some point certain people will dig it out and I reckon the UAE will be ahead of it all. Microsoft and its Ferengi approach of ‘When you get their money you never give it back’ comes with nice loopholes. You think that Microsoft made the ‘investment’ now here is the cracker. There is nothing stopping Microsoft of putting it in a ‘bad bank’ approach and make it all tax deductible and then some. And when the “artificial general intelligence” (AGI) clause is dropped there will be all kinds of attention from all over the place and no one is looking at the details of whatever they consider AI and what Alan Turing clearly considered to be AI. When the people that matter start looking and digging the days of Microsoft will be numbered. Another bubble game created and now that they have ‘enticed’ the wrong kind of people they will want their pound of dollars. And as we are given “The Biden administration in October required the makers of the largest AI systems to share details about them with the U.S. government. G42 earlier this year said it was actively working with U.S. partners and the UAE’s government to comply with AI development and deployment standards, amid concerns about its ties to China.” And in that setting Microsoft decided to be the governmental bitch to say the least. And all these media moguls are so loosely playing along and what will happen when someone digs into this. They will play dumb and say “We didn’t comprehend the technology” and it wasn’t hard. I saw it months ago, if not nearly almost two years ago. And the media was stupid? No, the media goes the way of the digital dollar, the way of the emotional flame. So as the field opens, we see all kinds of turmoil with Microsoft claiming to be the ‘saviour’ all nice and kind (of a sort), but when you look at the setting, it is my personal speculated feeling that Microsoft wouldn’t have made this move unless they had very little moves left. And in this setting the one player is forgotten. China, how far along are their ‘designs’? And in all this what are their plans? We seem to be given the setting that it is all American, but as the media cannot be trusted what is the ACTUAL setting? I have no clue, but in a world this interactive, China cannot be far away. 

And if there are people who disagree, that is fair, but the actual setting is largely unknown. So when we get to the last paragraph which gives us “Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Company, the UAE’s ruling family and U.S. private equity firm Silver Lake hold stakes in G42. The company’s chairman, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, is the UAE’s national security advisor and the brother of the UAE’s president.” Consider this small fact. Microsoft seems to be ‘investing’ all whilst the anti-China rhetoric is given. Do you think that anyone who is the National Security Advisor (of the UAE) hasn’t seen through a lot of this? So what was the plan from Microsoft? I am at a loss, but with the AI setting the way it actually is none of this makes sense. Do they really believe that Microsoft is any kind of solution in this setting? Simply look at the accusation that Microsoft has also been criticised for the perceived declining quality and reliability of its software. That is your partner in so-called AI? Just a thought to consider.

Well, you all have a lovely Sunday. My Monday is a mere 80 minutes away.

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November 7, 2024 · 20:15

What are we doing?

This question bothered me a lot lately. Not some message about an orange menace, or some Kardashian piece of jewellery that once belonged to royalty. No that doesn’t wake me up (or interest me). But in this light we have two articles. In the first we get the main event. Arab News informs us (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2578351) ‘Saudi Arabia’s aid arrives in northern Gaza to assist Palestinians’ and the issue is none of the western media as far as I can tell have this news, and it is news. 

Source: Arab News

We are given (with images) that “Several trucks with aid, provided by Saudi Arabia’s humanitarian agency KSrelief, have arrived in the northern Gaza Strip via Jordan.” We are also given “The aid was scheduled to be distributed through the Saudi Center for Culture and Heritage, which serves as the executive partner of KSrelief in the area.” As well as “The campaign to assist Palestinians, initiated by King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has raised over $186.3 million from over 2 million donors” the idea that 2 million Saudi’s create a wealth setting for humanitarian relief to the amount of nearly 200 million dollars giving us that the average donation by Saudis comes down to nearly $100 dollars and it isn’t just a trickle, this comes down to a little over 5% of the entire nation’s population. When did we see in the west that amount of humanitarian aid? When we see this numbers the entire western media should have stood up applauding this effort. I have a tainted view of Gaza (and I have been there in 1982), so there is premise to my point of view. What I fail to see is how the media is so tainted that news is filtered out (I personally refer to that stage as corrupt). 

Even I (with my own clear bundle of personal issues) pause to stop and realise that this is a monumental setting. We already saw that the UAE is dealing with shortages in Lebanon (vie the Khaleej Times) and now this? And the western media is currently too tainted to be of any informative acts. No the Guardian is simply washing this over by giving us (at https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/nov/07/chris-hemsworth-criticised-abu-dhabi-tourism-ad-uae-ntwnfb) ‘Chris Hemsworth criticised over tourism ad promoting Abu Dhabi despite ‘notorious’ human rights violations’ and the Guardian (other news outlets too) are always seeking the Human rights violations. It is never about just the acts of influencers showing the world that there is a lot more to Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. In this setting it is about  Abu Dhabi, which my meagre self calls the domain of ADNOC and the Abu Dhabi Scorpions (a previous hockey team for the uninformed). Abu Dhabi also has Ferrari World, Warner Brothers World, Yas Water World, SeaWorld Abu Dhabi, Prison Island Abu Dhabi and a few other ways to spend your hard earned free times. Like shopping in the Yas Mall with 235,000 m2 (2.5 million sq ft) of shopping spanning over 400 shops. As such Abu Dhabi might not be Dubai, but it has plenty to offer and they called the assistance of Chris Hemsworth and his wife Elsa Pataky to help out (Luke Hemsworth is probably still too young). So when we get to “The international non-governmental advocacy organisation Human Rights Watch (HRW) has said the UAE “invests in a strategy to paint the country as progressive, tolerant, and rights-respecting while carrying out repression against dissent”.” Personally I would advice the HRW to go and f**k a camel but that would be inappropriate towards the camel.

So see the articles and consider what else we are missing (apart from the budget to go see Abu Dhabi in person). Within the last week (might have ben two) I showed two cases of astounding humanitarian aid (the HRW missed that part I reckon). Are nations innocent? Well I doubt it, the discriminations that we saw in Florida against the LGTBQ population is one, but the HRW seemingly missed that part too. We have flaws, we all do, but the black washing (the opposite of white washing) of the media is as I see it now getting out of hand. 

As such I wonder what people tend to see and I am curious about the Hemsworth advertisement, perhaps it is on YouTube?

In a time where we disregard and mistrust nearly everything, it is time that the people in the western world regard the Arabian media (namely Arab News, Al Arabiya and the Khaleej Times). There is something seriously wrong in media world and it is time that we take away our view from them and the digital dollars they are whoring for. 

On a personal note, this morning I completed the virtual challenge of walking from Florence to Rome, the walk Saint Francis of Assisi did a few hundred years ago. The challenge was virtual, but the walk (503 km) was very real.

Have a great day.

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October 23, 2024 · 06:14

The tightening belt

What I foresaw is now coming to pass in more than one way. ECNS China gives us ‘Saudi Arabia aims to attract up to 5 million Chinese tourists by 2030’ there was always a shift coming and as we see it, Saudi Arabia becomes more and more driven to see what the Chinese markets can deliver. We saw this last week in the Saudi Tourism Festival held in Beijing on Oct 17, 2024. We are given “Saudi Minister of Tourism and Chairman of the Saudi Tourism Authority Ahmed Al-Khateeb said that Saudi Arabia is China-ready and welcomes all Chinese travellers with increased connectivity, customised products and strategic partnerships.” Now some of you will respond with ‘so what?’ And that might be fair in one way. But this number represents a much larger issue. As I see it, one third is goal driven tourism. People will decide on Saudi Arabia as a destination for a job, or as a cheap tourism destination. Two third will go as tourist with optional goals, but these three million tourists will go to Saudi Arabia and not to their ‘normal’ destinations. That will show in diminished numbers all over Europe (France, England, Spain and Italy) and America. These people will also attract optional tourists who will change their initial destination. The other 2 million will optionally retrench their optional ‘cheap labor’ destination from Australia and places like the Netherlands, Belgium and the nordic countries. You will think that it does not matter, but consider all these coffee places that ‘allowed’ for these people, optionally in other areas too. They will come short of their usual numbers. These tourists also spend all they earn in that country. As such there will be a shift, an initial shift that seems small but could grow over time. These 5 million will spend their money somewhere else (in Saudi Arabia) and that facilitates to more, it always does. You might not think much of this, but the Saudi job market is booming. There are (allegedly) at present a little over 10,000 jobs outstanding. A fair deal are out reach of a lot of them, but consider this job “Digital Marketing Specialist. Average Salary: SAR 9,500-35,000 per month” and consider that they have the Beijing University of Technology and over a dozen more universities where these young crackers would like to see options in their first 2 years. They have just graduated University, they have spend almost every waking hour working on digital solutions like TikTok, broadcast experience and on the other hand we see places like Huawei making waves in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These two places will see an increase of Chinese workers with an option to fulfil their dream a lot faster, so yes, Saudi Arabia will become a swing location for these people. All options that are shutting doors on Europe, Australia and America. 

We are also given “the country is preparing to launch its winter season tourism attractions, which will provide a range of experiences filled with entertainment, luxury, adventure and natural beauty, running from October to May”
Now consider that Oxagon, Trojena, Magna and Sindalah now suddenly will have a grasp of a thousand more affordable workers, bringing both a digitally active workforce as well as language skills to their regions. Yes, the cheaper groups will also infuse the wealth group from China to their shores because these people will encounter others with their language skills. As such the people who depend on these rich tourists will endure a lessened impact as they will all want to go to the newest places in Saudi Arabia. I reckon that in the 5,000,000 people will be at least 500,000 people who are beyond well-off and they will go to Saudi Arabia in the space of 2026-2028 (at least) and that is a kick to the heads of economy in the aforementioned countries. The top 1% of wealthy Chinese who are making over $80,000 are expected to spend that money in Saudi Arabia. And I am referring to the people who would have spend their cash in London, Paris and Orlando. Merely these three places will see a drop of income in the next few years. So how much more is needed? You might think that the small setting of “France is the most visited country within Europe, attracting an impressive 81,411,000 foreign sightseers each year”, but that would not be entirely correct. It includes all nations, including Europeans and a bunch of them will be attracted to Saudi luxury as well and consider that 1% is still 814,110, even if they merely lose 1%, that amounts to quite the drain on revenue and that is in part already heading towards Saudi Arabia. Already we are seeing messages on Free tourist visas, the one element that partially blocks choices is in the process of being removed. And all this is piling up against Europe and America. All whilst we were given ‘Tourism trips by residents of EU in 2023 up close to 6% y/y’ we ignore the drop that a mere 1% drop wouldn’t be much, but these tourists have beckoned billions in investments all over Europe and now I expect to see the Chinese drop as well as the ‘local’ tourists now dialling Saudi Arabia for their upcoming destination. Add to that whatever business bookings we see and you know these sales types, how they like to be known to go to new and luxurious destinations, the punch packing trips all over Saudi Arabia will be handing several body blows to Europe (America as well). We might merely see that the effort is on 5,000,000 Chinese tourists. But the overall impact will be a lot higher. That is the one part that everyone forgets about. The overly large population of tourists can only spend their money once or perhaps twice a year and the appeal of Saudi Arabia is overwhelming with at least three locations appealing to a lot of tourists. Add to this Riyadh and the impact of Saudi tourism will be felt in most of the tourist places of Europe and America. I reckon that if Disney and Universal sets a theme park in these places the damage will be near complete. Not a mere 2-3 years. But an impact over the next decade at least. Whatever we think of these parks in Orlando, they are overpacked and soon there will be an alternative of the same making. We see (at present) “With over 58 million annual tourist visits, Disney World averages approximately 159,000 visitors per day across all its parks” as well as “In 2023, 10 million tourists visited Islands of Adventure, a decrease of 9%” and consider that these two places could lose close to 15% more, people that have had enough of these massive queues and they want an alternative. Well Warner Brothers is already seeing an increasing populous enjoying Abu Dhabi and I reckon that these are all people contemplating Saudi Arabia as an optional destination.

Tourist destinations in Europe and America will see the need to tighten their belts. And this is not new. I floated the idea on September 27th 2023 in ‘As the belt tightens’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/09/27/as-the-belt-tightens/) so this is not news to me. I saw it coming a mile away (well, actually a year ago), and that is all before the glamour of Vision 2030 hits the tourists on the retina. I think I made my case 2 times over and the impact should be seen all over Europe in the time 2026-2028, after that? That depends how Saudi Arabia plays it cards. I made one other prediction (presumption) on what would be needed and that could put Europe and America in a bind, they either invest and make ready for 2025 or they might lose a lot more.

Have a great day and contemplate the view from the Aedas ski resort. Can America match that view? Now consider that Saudi Arabia could simultaneous hit 5-10 tourist attractions at the same time in 2026.

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October 14, 2024 · 16:41

What we see as good

That is at times the question. You see, we see via Twitter and Facebook all kind of dubious shenanigans on how we would be saved by another Crusade (implied innuendo). That sounds nice, but the setting was that we had to go there thrice and still it ended in an uneasy truce. Now there is absolutely no guarantee that Christians will succeed this time around. The first crusades were enacted through greed and pillaging and even now the Christians remain in denial of that part. I do not think this will ever change. And it gets from bad to worse after that. The ‘west’ is still working under the believe that they can come on top of it. Just like the NRA believing that they stand a chance against the US military in an insurrection mode. (It took me 30 minutes to stop myself from howling from laughter).

You see, “The Cabinet of the United Arab Emirates, following the implementation of the UAE Federal Law No. 7 in November 2014, designated a list of 83 organisations and entities including the Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Qaeda, Taliban, Hezbollah, Houthis and the Islamic State as terrorist organisations” that was a decade ago, they still see Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation. As such it is remarkable that the Khaleej Times gives us ‘Thousands of UAE residents turn up at Expo City Dubai to pack aid boxes for Lebanon’ (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/hundreds-of-uae-residents-turn-up-to-expo-city-dubai-to-pack-aid-boxes-for-lebanon) it is here that we see how utterly remarkable the people of the UAE are. Here we are given “Thousands of UAE residents turned up at the Dubai Exhibition Centre in Expo City early on Saturday morning to pack aid kits for those affected by the crisis in Lebanon. Some left homes as early as 6am to make it to the event which began at 9. Many brought items to contribute, which were collected at the location while others chose to make monetary contributions to registered charities at the event” now reflect on this against the events in Europe where affected countries include Austria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Thousands of people have been evacuated; at least 26 people have died, and thousands have been displaced. So tell me how many people got into an active mode to help and support these people? Not that many (a pure guess on my side) and here we see thousands of people supported through goods and donations as well as packing the parcels for the people affected. 

And these westerners thinks that they can ‘fuel’ a new crusade setting? Don’t make me laugh. 

Even the UAE organisers were amazed as we read “The capacity of the hall is 1,000 people and that’s how many people we were expecting,” said Dr Tariq Al Gurg, CEO and Vice Chairman of Dubai Cares. “But we have already had 2,500 volunteers, and we are expecting it to rise to 3,500 or 4,500 by the end of the session. We had to really rapidly change the strategy to ensure as many people could have the experience. The packing sessions were shortened to about 40 minutes.” A hall sized up for a thousand people and they ran out of space well before noon and think of a thousand people in a place that goes warmer than 36 degrees Celsius. That is what the people are up against. A whole ‘horde’ of people who make it their business to give aid to the people of 

Lebanon. It is also here where we see “He said the 10,000 boxes that the volunteers packed were just part of the aid being provided to Lebanon. “We will give them tents, drinking water, food supplies and hygiene kits. Also, we will get them proper instructors to get them psychosocial support.”” That is what Lebanon needs (well they heed a seize fire more), but that is all in the hands of Hezbollah and whilst they hide behind the three killed UN soldiers. The papers are eager to dismiss the fact that Israel told the UN soldiers to get out of the way, but they refused. I cannot fault either side for this, but the fact that Hezbollah (in support of Hamas) decided to fire on Israel was pretty much the dumbest thing they decided on in 2024. But on the good side, the people of the UAE rallied for the people of Lebanon and that is equally dismissed (as far as I could tell) by the western media. And this isn’t the only event, a similar event is being conducted in Abu Dhabi on Sunday (October 14th) at the cruise terminal. Dr Al Gurg said similar packing events will be held in the coming weeks as well. And that is who these Crusade claiming weirdo’s want to go up against? In 1095 the Westerners had over a century of advantage and they barely got out alive they lost a few million lives, on equal footing (now) it is massively likely that the west will not survive that stupidity. But it is not about the neo-Crusades. It is about how a country (the United Arab Emirates) decided to unite to give aid to the Lebanese. A nation 2500 km away from Lebanon and they rallied like nothing else. I wonder what happens when they really set the marker  on what these volunteers of the UAE find unacceptable.

As such I say, well done emirates and on a side note (as I find the setting to hilarious for words) there is every chance that Jerusalem at some point will see

Determination of the people is half the war and these Neo Crusade weepers might take notice of what we see in the Khaleej Times. And when you take notice of that, also take notice on the western media not taking notice (as far as I could tell). So well done Dubainese and Abu Dhabians. Well done!

Enjoy the day.

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September 28, 2024 · 22:22

How I fall short

That is the stage, that is the setting. I do not know everything (too boring anyways) and even as I see how things develop and are optionally staged. The fact that I do not know everything gets in the way of some things. Now, I know very little about oil. It is a commodity everyone needs, it is a commodity only some countries have and the two biggest players in that field are Aramco and ADNOC, oil is black and it is needed for the production of petroleum. That’s about all I know. The current price is about $68 dollars per barrel. So when I saw ‘Oil price drops, and BP and Shell shares slide, as Saudi Arabia ‘prepares to abandon $100 crude target’’ I didn’t think too much of it. The story comes from the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/sep/26/european-reconstruction-bank-cuts-growth-forecasts-energy-ukraine-elon-musk-uk-investment-summit), there were more sources, but I am handing you this one. We get “Saudi Arabia is reportedly ready to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 a barrel for crude as it prepares to increase output” yet Oil&Gas journal gives us “Saudi Arabia is preparing to abandon its informal target of $100/bbl for crude oil as it plans to increase production, signalling the kingdom’s acceptance of a period of lower prices and intentions to take back market share, according to sources cited by the Financial Times”, now in my book the shortage of one commodity means prices go up. I do understand that any player will protect market share, as such I get the increase of product to protect your market share. That makes sense. And as such we see Saudi Arabia deciding an increase for about 1 million barrels per day as per December 2024. There are a few players on this field and I like the idea that the increase will make sure that Russia has less customers to get it from Russia is not happy. And as several media are giving us the goods, there is no other way for me than to agree with the setting. In overall there is still a larger concern I have. Oil is a commodity with a finite supply, so how much supply is there? I believe that the middle east has the bulk of it, but the finite session gives us the dangerous setting that at some point, the three countries with supply will be Russia, Iran and Venezuela. That is not a setting I want to wake up to, although at present it is highly unlikely that I will be around the morning we get that piece of news. In the meantime there is a larger issue at stake. How will Aramco increase its creation of oil with an additional 159,000,000 litres of that black fluid. You see everyone is looking at the end result and no one is looking at the how. What is required to that level of increase? I feel certain that it will require a lot more than one pump. It is the increase of 10% (near to that) and comes from 300 rigs. The simpleton in me sees this as an additional 30 rigs. It takes 18 months to five years to commission a rig, the construction timeline for an oil rig can vary significantly depending on several factors and that is if the oil comes from rigs. Saudi Arabia has one hundred oil and gas fields, so if it comes from there, other means are needed. The largest oil field is the Ghawar field. So how can you increase the production there? And is that the only place? We are so desperate for oil that the basic security is overlooked and there is at present Iran, Houthi forces and a few others who are very willing to hurt Saudi Arabia. So what more is needed, because when by November that increase is realised, some will take offence to this and that problem will possibly create all kinds of new problems. And we do not see enough information on that side of the equation.

And advice from me? Nope, I know next to nothing on that topic. I can merely see hurdles and optionally a personal belief that I see options, but that is not what the actual expert on the topic has. And the media? Solutions do not make their digital wallet fat, flames do that and in that view it is not a good idea to put flames close to oil, a mere personal view on the matter.

Have a great weekend.

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