Tag Archives: OpenAI

January 3, 2026 · 11:42

The wannabe influencer?

That is my question at present. In comes a person with the ludicrous title of “Al & loT Expert”. You see, what makes it hilarious was the post I saw ‘fly’ by. He starts off with “OpenAl’s first hardware is… a pen?? (If they don’t call it O-Pen Al they have officially lost the Al race).” So that is what makes him an expert? I am no expert on any of that but I am highly knowledgable on matters including IoT. In some cases and in some places I am known as a guru. I have my niche settings. But what gets to me is that (although I am no OpenAI fan) OpenAI has ‘Yes’ lost the current battle against Google and its Gemini 3, which the media kept from you for weeks. Although I personally never used it, but people who did and are ‘regarded’ as captains of industry think so. So, as I see it, OpenAI lost a battle, but that doesn’t mean the war is over. You see, the war on AI (when it finally comes here) is in no means settled at present. And those who understand that battle know this and mostly unmentioned is the play that is left with IBM because they currently have the inside track, not Oracle, not Snowflake and definitely not Google, Microsoft or Amazon. You see, AI is more then what is out there today. It will rely on larger technological settings. They all have quantum systems, but who is the most advanced in Shallow Circuits? IBM was setting that stage in advanced settings in 2017 all whilst OpenAI hardly barely at that point. IBM was on the ball and the actual winner of what now is referred to as True AI, which is ACTUAL AI will need two additional settings the first is Shallow Circuits, a setting where only IBM is a straight forward contender. With that I say I have no idea where Google stands. And in that the next thing is that a trinary operating system will be required and as far as I know there is no current winner at present. I reckon that both Google and IBM have dabbled in this, but I do not know where they stand and when this comes to pass the winner will work with Oracle to make the connections in a much needed combined effort, because they all agree that Oracle is the one player that can make it work. Snowflake as well, but I have no idea where they stand in all this. What we currently have are DML/LLM solutions that are at times clever and functioning, but in too limited a setting. I call this Near Intelligent Parsing (or NIP), but it is not AI, even thought they all have the marketing calling it so. 

What we have now is a mere shadow of what Alan Turing envisioned half a century ago and leave it to sales teams to wriggle the straw until it bleed revenue, but as the class cases will explode in this year, they are left to ‘apologetically assume the position of miscommunication’, at least that is how I see it. So was this person a wannabe influencer and taking the LinkedIn cloud by humor? 

So this might optionally have been the pen that OpenAI is flaunting, but as I see it, this is their step into audio, which they advertised and having a pen recorder is a pretty contraption (aka gizmo, doohickey, or thingamajig) that propels the setting of OpenAI forward. And I reckon that within a month all wannabe AI experts want one. Audio is the next stage that require harnessing, so OpenAI is not out of the race, they merely got bruised in a race where they had the upper hand for three years. 

Perhaps they get the upper hand in other direction making them overall winner, but that is a mere consideration of option, especially when we realise the inside track that IBM has and where is that in his assessment? So I am not proclaiming the identity of that person, it lacks class and makes him a target. He made himself a target and I do not need to add to his current confusion. 

What is a stage is that there is a chance that OpenAI is moving to capture the stage of Audio enhanced NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) making them first again and Google will need to play catchup, optionally Oracle (Snowflake too) will now have to adjust their tracks to get audio embedded in their database settings and whilst we do not know where IBM goes, we do know they have the inside track, they might rely on Oracle/Snowflake solving that problem for them and as I am a Snowflake person, I still believe that Oracle is likely to win this war for the mere knowledge that they have been on these tracks long before Snowflake got involved, so they have years and traction in their stride. This is not a certainty, but a presumed advantage. 

That is as good as I can give it to you and I have written other stories on the need for a Trinary operating system. I last did that in ‘Is it a public service’ which I wrote last November (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/11/16/is-it-a-public-service/) so this isn’t coming out of the left field, it was there for almost two months. Oh and to be certain that you do not mistake me for that wannabe influencer. I am in no way an ‘expert’ on AI, I merely have been dabbling in IT and data since 1981. So I have the mileage here, have a great day today.

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December 30, 2025 · 14:16

The age of uncertainty 

I thought that times were changing, see I invoked some were invoked on me, or something of that nature. Two days ago I started a new script, I call it “Just A Game” which gives me the letters J.A.G. (no relation) but the setting was created to scare the jibbers out of the NSA, GCHQ and related organisations. Set to that I created a few kinks to get the setting of drama going and it is a film script, not some autography to scare three to four people. They get enough real scares for that, as such I wouldn’t be able to hold a candle to the real nightmares.

Then I got introduced to (what I am fathoming to be grifters in media) as I got exposed to ‘Oracle stock slips after insider sale filing as openai-linked spending stays in focus’ where we see “Oracle shares fell 0.4% to $197.27 in early trading on Monday after a company officer disclosed a planned share sale, with investors still wary about the cost of the software maker’s push to expand AI-related cloud capacity.” It is important to say that no lies were told, but as I see it, when we see “That scrutiny has been sharpest around Oracle’s ties to privately held OpenAI, where investors lack the same visibility into funding and cash burn that they get with public companies, analysts and traders said. (Source: Benzinga) A Form 144 filing accepted on Monday morning showed Oracle officer Mark Hura proposed selling up to 15,000 shares, with an aggregate market value of about $2.95 million, through Fidelity Brokerage Services. Form 144 is the SEC notice used when company “affiliates” — insiders and certain large holders — plan to sell shares under Rule 144, which sets conditions for selling restricted or control stock into the public market.” It feels like someone is trying to undermine the power of Oracle. Then we get ‘Oracle Shares Plunge Amid Mounting Concerns Over AI Strategy’ (source: Ad Hoc News, Germany) where we are given “Oracle Corporation is facing one of its most severe market downturns in decades. Since reaching a peak in September, the technology giant’s stock has plummeted by more than 40%, putting it on track for its worst quarterly performance since 2001. This dramatic sell-off is fueled by investor apprehension over soaring capital expenditures and a wave of insider selling, raising fundamental questions about the sustainability of management’s aggressive artificial intelligence investment plan. A primary catalyst behind the market’s negative reaction is the explosive growth in Oracle’s capital investments. The company’s capital expenditures tripled year-over-year in its second fiscal quarter, reaching $12 billion. In response to this surge, management significantly raised its annual forecast for such spending to a staggering $50 billion.” There is no lie, but in September, stock was $328 and it is lower now, but that is the setting of a market in motion, over the last day it was switching between $194 and $195, as such there is no real dip in intent, and the $328 was true, but the day before it was $241, but the article doesn’t spell that out, does it? And two days after the spike it had ‘dwindled’ to $292, and after the quarter that followed the stock would reset itself to $198, as such it seems like ‘doom speak’ and I have a problem with that, Oracle has proven itself time and time again and when true (say: real) AI arrives, it will only function under the data armour that Oracle provides, most others are wannabe’s trying to do what Oracle and Snowflake successfully do. As such we are in a stage of uncertainty, the media is used to fuel digital dollars, fueling influencers and wannabe prophets of doom times. Even as I recognise them, they gave me an idea of an old setting. You see we have been through this before in the age of the bards. They gave us the doom speak, the white knight and the victory, but that setting is now applied to economic fortune telling, so the more things change, the more they stay the same.

And in all that ruckus, I am trying to keep my brain afloat (on ice water) and unburdened by noise of economic influencers. I try to avoid most economic news, but when the attack on Oracle started, I just had to step in. There were more articles, but these two set the marker quite nicely. And it is important, because the media no longer does what it was designed to do, it now prevents itself from drowning whilst chasing digital dollars. Lets hope that the age of uncertainty fades quickly, America has its own set of losers trying to bank in on that and with a non-functioning media, we need all the help we can get. Have a great day today.

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December 25, 2025 · 21:44

The boat has left

That is a weird setting, but that might be the case for a lot of people. It is the Financial Express who gives us (at https://www.financialexpress.com/life/technology-ibm-to-skill-5-million-indian-youth-in-ai-cybersecurity-and-quantum-computing-by-2030-details-inside-4082018/) the headline ‘IBM to skill 5 million Indian youth in AI, cybersecurity and quantum computing by 2030’ you might think it is nothing to get hung over about, but you would be wrong. Even as some ‘claim’ to give good courses (some actually do), it is IBM who has had that inside track in several ways. As such (or perhaps to consider as I see it), the labour market will be drowning in Indian entrepreneurs by 2032 (and a whole before that). I reckon that these people will bolster the Indian go getter market and they will branch out to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and a few other places. As such if you think the US labour market is merely cooling, think again. These people will be highly wanted in India, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, UK, Australia, Canada and the EU long before we get to 2030. There will be an Indian wave of go getters all over the world and the places that needed to get active weren’t for much too long. So as we see “India possesses the talent and ambition to lead the world in AI & Quantum. Fluency in frontier technologies will define economic competitiveness, scientific progress and societal transformation,” said Arvind Krishna, IBM Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. “Our commitment to skill five million people is an investment in that future. By democratizing access to advanced skills, we are enabling the youth and students to build, innovate and accelerate India’s growth.”” And these people will be highly skilled in all things IBM (perhaps not in IBM Statistics or IBM Miner) but that is little cause for alarm. These people will also bring forth IBM skills and products, so this setting takes care of two pipelines, skills and products. And all that time AWS was hounding the AI field. It is nice, but as these people are highly skilled in whatever IBM holds, there is a mismatch on what is required. OK, that last part is speculative, but that is what I would do.

I reckon that Microsoft and OpenAI also might have a problem here. You see we also get “IBM also continues to strengthen school-level readiness by co-developing the AI curriculum for senior secondary students, along with teaching resources including the AI Project Cookbook, Teacher Handbook and explainer modules. These programs are designed to embed computational thinking and responsible AI principles early, while enabling teachers to deliver AI education confidently and at scale.” As such these people get a schooling in evolved from famous systems like Deep Blue and Watson and as such IBM provides a flexible ecosystem allowing choice from various foundation models (like Granite, Llama, Mistral). Whatever they partnered with doesn’t matter. This is the IBM show, partners take a second stage chair. And as I see it, IBM did something nicely spectacular because they get a choir of 5 million evangelizing Watsoners all over the world and in that instance Watson grows from niche to mainstream and that will feel good for all the shareholders who kept their trust in Arvind Krishna (I will give a nice ‘Well done sir’) in this instance. Because it is starting to look like the old premise ‘When two dogs fight over a bone, the third one takes it gone’ So in the fight we saw with OpenAI and Google, we now see that the future is banked on by IBM. This doesn’t make the others useless in any way, but IBM set the future towards Watson in a rather nice way and that has to count for something.

What a nice end of year this will be this year. Because at the drop of a hat, it wasn’t merely Google or OpenAI, as I see it now IBM because the third major player in this duet and as I see innovation, this is how innovative strides are made, by having to refocus your tasks, that is the real innovation maker in this world. 

A lovely ending to Christmas Day. Have a great upcoming boxing day you all.

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December 25, 2025 · 01:07

They had twins

Yup, it happens. At times we have kids, progeny so to speak and some get two for a simple roll in the hay. Yet this isn’t about kids. It is about Gemini 3, Googles seemingly finest product. It is so great that Microsoft barred Google Chrome from installing and they blamed it on some weird parenting setting. And then the media lacked looking at it, probably some revenue driven courtesan issue. All speculation, but I would prefer to set this to presumption, still I have no evidence. So it is all allegedly, but the settings on Gemini are clear. I read it myself (so it must be true). I will start with FXLeaders who (at https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/12/23/google-stock-heads-to-record-highs-as-gemini-3-outperforms-chatgpt/) gives us ‘Google Stock Heads to Record Highs as Gemini 3 Outperforms ChatGPT’, as such it is now the fifth time Microsoft loses. There was Sony, There was AWS, There was Google and now there is Google again. It sucks to be Microsoft. And the howling continues. 

So FXLeaders gives us two bullets that matters.

  • The launch of Gemini 3 has intensified competitive pressures in the AI sector, while regulatory concerns add complexity to the investment landscape.
  • Insider selling and a cautious market sentiment suggest that near-term upside may be limited, but long-term support from institutional investors remains strong.

So as we are given “Alphabet emerged as one of the standout megacap performers in November, delivering a decisive breakout that carried shares through the $300 mark and to a fresh all-time high near $329. The move completed a strong rebound from a late-September pullback and reinforced confidence in the company’s long-term growth trajectory. The rally was fueled by sustained institutional demand and growing optimism around Google’s artificial intelligence roadmap. For much of October and November, Alphabet benefited from its unique position at the intersection of digital advertising dominance and AI platform leadership.”

As well as “The rollout of Gemini 3—trained primarily on Google’s in-house chips rather than external hardware—has sparked renewed debate around vertical integration in artificial intelligence. Supporters view this as a long-term strategic advantage, potentially lowering costs and reducing reliance on third-party suppliers while optimizing performance. Recent benchmark results, where Gemini 3 reportedly outperformed ChatGPT in several categories, have added to that narrative and intensified competitive pressure across the sector.” So wonder about how the media could not get you this two weeks ago and wonder now why I refer to the media (the larger part) as the Courtesans of the digital dollar. This should have been know and tested for by several parties directly, and I don’t care who won, we were not informed. As I see it, Microsoft has too powerful a hold on the media and the media who shunned their jobs need to be named and shamed. Sound simple, doesn’t it? As such I also present a second source, so there is a little more data drivenness to the fold. It is a story (at https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-research/2025/google-gemini-3-redefines-ai-reasoning-and-efficiency/) where StartupHub.AI gives us “The core of Gemini 3’s impact lies in its unprecedented reasoning and multimodal understanding. According to the announcement, Gemini 3 Pro, Google’s most powerful model to date, not only topped the LMArena Leaderboard but also achieved breakthrough scores on challenging benchmarks like Humanity’s Last Exam and GPQA Diamond. These tests are designed to assess an AI’s ability to truly think and reason like humans, indicating a sophisticated capacity to process and synthesize information across various modalities, moving closer to genuine comprehension. Furthermore, its gold-medal standard performance in international mathematics and coding contests, powered by its Deep Think capabilities, signals a new era for AI in complex problem-solving, pushing the boundaries of what automated systems can achieve in abstract domains.” So as we wonder what some of them mean, the benchmarks were available to pretty much all the media, so what prevented them to report on it? Simple question, isn’t it?

And you might wonder why I care, or why I believe these sources. There is a setting that sets up a lot of consideration and that is right, but the media isn’t informing us and they aren’t making any tests, even though I gave one test to the world (not necessarily a good one) but the media did NOTHING. They allegedly value the digital dollars too much and they rely on players like the Microsoft stakeholders to fund their gravy train (as I personally see it) So am I right, am I wrong? I would love to be wrong, but I have seen this before (more than once). But as I see these results there is a larger play in motion. Is Google actually that good? I am not debating it, I am asking and it comes with an answer. It is either Yes, No, or it is under advisement. The first two are simple and it can begotten by showing the evidence, but the Media did nothing of the sort, perhaps some did, but the larger groups are abstaining from involvement (it sounds better then ‘They cower the results if involved’ because that makes them sound like actual pussies. So why am I so angry about this? It is a result we were entitled to and it requires OpenAI to divulge its heading and not cater to asking for more value when there is none to be had (at present). And as such investors are duped into not receiving the evidence they need to make financial decisions. But perhaps I am over simplifying the problem here.

Whatever you consider and whatever you decide is yours to do and you are entitled to the best information to make these decisions and the media is no longer able to do that. I don’t care if you embrace ChatGPT and OpenAI. That’s fine, I am not choosing favorites, I actually don’t care, but I do care about lacking media, lacking results and hiding behind some stakeholder whilst the people have a right to know. They use that as their battle drum, so they can be held to that as well. It is a simple setting as I see it.

Have a great Christmas Day, 23 hours until boxing day for me.

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December 21, 2025 · 22:59

The dice fell snake eyes

It is the setting I predict a few weeks ago and more less recent in the story ‘Eric Winter is a god’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/07/05/eric-winter-is-a-god/) in July 2023. I saw it coming this early in the race, why? Mainly because AI doesn’t yet exist, so whomever sells whatever solution they have as AI will set themselves up for a rather huge and nasty fall. In 2023 it was easy, in 1980 the movie the Changeling was released, giving the timelines then, the movie was made in 1979 and Eric Winter was born 17 July 1976, so what was a 2 year old doing in that movie? That is the simple setting of validating your data and that is why there is a case with what some now call AI. So now we get (at https://decrypt.co/353227/openai-microsoft-sued-over-chatgpt-connecticut-murder-suicide) ‘OpenAI, Microsoft Sued Over ChatGPT’s Alleged Role in Connecticut Murder-Suicide’ so when we see the setting in that case, there is more than just the bare minimums. This will imply engineers who programmed the setting, as we are given “In the latest lawsuit targeting AI developer OpenAI, the estate of an 83-year-old Connecticut woman sued the ChatGPT developer and Microsoft, alleging that the chatbot validated delusional beliefs that preceded a murder-suicide—marking the first case to link an AI system to a homicide.” I expected that we would have until 2026, but it never got that far and when the first trial starts, we will see aq whole range of class actions and other legal battles start, because as we are taught in Torts, go where the money is and OpenAI/Microsoft have plenty. As such there will be a whole range of cases being started. I reckon that there is a whole flock of ambulance chasers who will see this as their golden opportunity. And the more data is thrown around, the more intense the legal battles begin to emerge. A setting that was clear two years ago for me and as I found more than one setting that favors this, we merely have to look at sentences like “We rely on our AI to bring you [X]” the legal eagles see that as their way into your coffers and they have greedy hands, because that is what they were instructed to do. And when you consider “OpenAI faces numerous lawsuits, primarily revolving around copyright infringement for using vast amounts of online content (news, books, lyrics) to train AI models like ChatGPT, with major cases from The New York Times (NYT) and authors seeking damages and content bans, plus a recent German court ruling against lyric reproduction.” We see the setting that they either settle, or lose whatever data they have and there are numerous other settings that are thrown into the mix. And whatever is in the design law database, because there is every indication that these trademarks were also broken in numerous places and Microsoft has no place to turn, they are in it for the big bucks and whilst some are ‘driven’ to reconsider their options, the amount of people who are not considering that, is a growing amount of people smelling the scent of dollars and they are hungry. I reckon that those non-Americans are even more driven to those dollars than the Americans are. It comes down to (a massive speculation) that gets them up to 100 billion and that was before Sam Altman was hoping for a $800B incentive. That is the short and sweet of it, so as we look at the article seeing

““This is the first case seeking to hold OpenAI accountable for causing violence to a third-party,” J. Eli Wade-Scott, managing partner of Edelson PC, who represents the Adams estate, told Decrypt. “We also represent the family of Adam Raine, who tragically ended his own life this year, but this is the first case that will hold OpenAI accountable for pushing someone toward harming another person.”” You see, “first case that will hold OpenAI accountable for pushing someone toward harming another person” is a deeper step than some lawyer pushing that OpenAI was driving a person to some extend, that is no harm, or merely applied harm to self, do you have any idea how many lawyers will demand to see the algorithm and the programmer who wrote it? That will be a mess that takes almost years to sort out, in that same time, Google will progress Gemini 3 much further making OpenAI lose investors and they are as sketchy as they will ever be.

So whilst we see the sparks come, we will see a lot more issues surface and they are not all on OpenAI, but I reckon that some lawyers will play it that way, because that is where the money is. 

So you all have a great day, it is still 39 degrees in my living room so I am placing my mattress in the freezer, not sure how, but I need to get some sleep at this point.

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December 20, 2025 · 02:18

With media assistance

That is what I see and I might be wrong, but judge for yourself. There is plenty of evidence around. It all started with an article in Forbes (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2025/12/18/microsoft-updates-windows-to-stop-users-downloading-google-chrome/) where we were shown ‘Microsoft Updates Windows ‘To Stop Users From Downloading Google Chrome’’ so that doesn’t sound at all ominous. And it kinda reflects the setting I gave over 2 years ago with ‘Are they really?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/09/01/are-they-really/) which I gave onboard September 1st 2023. We are now given “Here we go again. “Microsoft is trying a new way to stop users from downloading Google Chrome.” We have seen this before. Just as with Apple, the two tech giants are pushing hard to keep users within their own walled gardens, on Safari and Edge. The latest news comes from Windows Report. “If you open the Chrome download page in Microsoft Edge, you may see a new banner at the top.” Instead of just presenting the usual Edge versus Chrome comparison, “Microsoft now focuses on protection.”” I would be the first to state that the statement is missing and they are actually meaning “Microsoft now focuses on protection of self” and it is a slippery slope. They can find the expert in France to find evidence that the bra size of Kim Kardassian is increasing, but they are not able to get a clear independent view of whatever OpenAI gives us against Gemini 3? Go Figure.

As such Forbes gives us “What’s most interesting is that Microsoft has usually stressed that Edge is built on the same Chromium base as Chrome, with all the benefits of Chrome, only better. “This time, those points are missing. The message stays centered on built-in safety features.”” Og course it is, Microsoft cannot allow for the people to gives them grounds of taking sides in that war, they have far too much riding on out, the revitalization of Clippy is on the line and if people (who are speculatively likely) to select Gemini 3 over OpenAI, the walls of Microsoft come crumbling down. They have trillions riding on this and as I see it (I have zero evidence) is that OpenAI underwhelmed whist Google is riding high, as such they have trillions riding on their bad sense of innovation.

And as I see it, it is really bad when they are repeating some of the settings they had in 2023 when edge was on the line, I reckon together with Xbox and Gemini they now lost for the third time, four times if you count AWS versus Azure. The once so highly Microsoft has now lost against Android, Google Search, Sony, Amazon and now against Gemini. A five times loser of technology. So whilst the media ‘accepts’ “Microsoft now focuses on protection.” The truth is predominantly ugly, the truth is that Microsoft is basically done for. 

And the media can hide behind their timelines when they ‘suddenly’ reveal an independent tester (one that meets with the approval of Microsoft) But it might be too little and too late for the media as well. 

So whilst Microsoft hides behind “Chrome attracts more security threat headlines than any other browser. This year, Cybersecurity News says, “Google addressed a significant wave of actively exploited zero-day vulnerabilities affecting its Chrome browser, patching a total of eight critical flaws that threatened billions of users worldwide.”

All these vulnerabilities were “high severity with CVSS scores averaging 8.5,” with the world’s most popular browser targeted “by sophisticated threat actors, including state-sponsored groups and commercial surveillance vendors.”” And weirdly enough, my Android is flying high using Google, the only threat I had for a while was influencers pushing me against my will towards Edge. As such there might be truth in the last statement, but I think Microsoft is overselling that idea. And as the evidence s shown to us, I really believe I am right all along. So as you might realise that Forbes hides behind their final words “As you see, none of this is clear cut.” I believe it is and it requires a true independent test of Gemini versus OpenAI. But perhaps I am oversimplifying the problem. I apparently tend to do that and it has nothing to do that I have been in IT for over 45 years. So you all have a great day, I finally look forward to some sleep. The temperature has dropped from over 30 degrees to 24 degrees and it is 02:00. And did you catch the one element Microsoft is leaving alone? It is that Apple is less of a threat than Google is, is it the 26 profiles of their Alphabet? I let you decide. I have seen the light and the seas of snores are beckoning me.

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December 18, 2025 · 23:58

The wrong focus

Two messages passed me by today. The first one was given to us by CNBC (at https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/12/17/oracle-stock-blue-owl-michigan-data-center.html) with the headline ‘Oracle stock dips 5% as Blue Owl Capital pulls out of funding $10 billion data center’ and I wonder why the headline wasn’t ‘Blue Owl Capital pulls out of funding $10 billion data center’ with the optional added “the project remains “on schedule” but that Blue Owl was out of funding talks.” And as we see “Blue Owl had been in talks with Oracle about funding a 1-gigawatt facility for OpenAI in Saline Township, Michigan, according to the Financial Times.” And when we see “the plans fell through due to concerns about Oracle’s rising debt levels and extensive artificial intelligence spending, the FT reported, citing people familiar with the matter. This comes as some investors raise red flags about the funding behind the rush to build ever more data centers. The concern is that some hyperscalers are turning to private equity markets rather than funding the buildings themselves, and entering into lease agreements that could prove risky.” I am wondering why the focus is Oracle and not Blue Owl Capital. Even as others give us ‘Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Is Down 7.1% After Liquidity And BDC-Merger Lawsuits Surface – What’s Changed’ (at https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/diversified-financials/nyse-owl/blue-owl-capital/news/blue-owl-capital-owl-is-down-71-after-liquidity-and-bdc-merg/amp) with “Blue Owl Capital has faced multiple securities class action lawsuits alleging that it misled investors about liquidity pressures tied to redemptions and the planned merger of its business development companies, following weaker-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results and contentious merger terms for OBDC II shareholders.” As well as “Beyond the legal claims, the controversy has highlighted how liquidity constraints, redemption limits, and potential valuation “haircuts” inside key private credit vehicles can affect confidence in Blue Owl’s broader fee-based asset management model.” So the setting could be “Oracle dips because Capital Asset Management cannot get their settings right” it is a speculative statement, but it does hold water in light of what we are shown, so why CNBC focusses on Oracle and not on Blue Owl Capital is beyond me. Is it because kicking a true innovator is more sexy than a Capital Asset Management player? I feel slightly protective of real innovators and as far as I can tell Oracle has been a power for innovation for over 45 years (yes I am that old).

So when we see “Blue Owl Capital’s narrative projects $4.2 billion revenue and $5.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 17.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $5.0 billion earnings increase from $75.4 million today.” And there is the real culprit, players like Blue Owl need to make money and the entire setting for what they call ‘AI’ will not show revenue for over 2 years and that is what is hampering these players (as I personally see it).

So when we see “The person added that Blue Owl was also concerned that local politics in Michigan would cause construction delays. Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks.” I reckon that Blue Owl will move out of at least one other project, as such some players need to step up and it goes without saying that these ‘money makers’ will see stretch marks in their projected revenue womb and it will be a nasty setting for those that are relying on profit per quarter and that was the setting I foresaw almost a year ago and a setting that will bare scrutiny because there are trillions invested and some makers of money will start to realise that as they aren’t making enough money for their shareholders, they will become nervous and as I see it, Google has the inside track now and those relying on OpenAI and Sam Altman will start to see their revenue falter, it is no longer a one player game and that is before we consider where Huawei is going in all this. 

The second article ‘Amazon Set to Waste $10 Billion on OpenAI’ (at https://247wallst.com/technology-3/2025/12/17/amazon-set-to-waste-10-billion-on-openai/) the question becomes. Is it really wasted? We see the first setting “OpenAI, which until recently has been the leading artificial intelligence (AI) company in the world, has raised money from a long list of investors. Some are venture capitalists who are simply writing checks to get returns. However, another list consists of money or strategic deals with Microsoft, Oracle, Softbank, Nvidia, and, soon, Disney.” This part raises a question “Some are venture capitalists who are simply writing checks to get returns” the question is part of a timeline. When they get the money is another part of this equation and time is  the factor that holds these money loving parties in check, or not as the timeline shifts towards 2028/2029. So as we consider “Bloomberg reports, “OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer’s effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp.” Amazon is a tiny player in the AI chip business. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) dominates, with a market cap of $4.33 trillion, which makes it the most valuable company in the world. Put plainly, the Amazon deal is part of the dangerous “round tripping” that goes on in the industry. One company invests in another. The company that gets the investment uses the money to buy products or services from the investor.” I see something else. Whilst we get that $4.33 trillion is an important part, the larger setting is becoming “Amazon deal is part of the dangerous “round tripping” that goes on in the industry” this implies that “a company selling “an unused asset to another company, while at the same time agreeing to buy back the same or similar assets at about the same price.”” I see it as double dipping, so we have now (apparently ) arrived to the point where the double dipping is greedily seen on 10 billion, whist the invested setting is over 900 times larger. I personally see that as a new venue towards the bottom of the creamy barrel that everyone wants to dip their wallet in, the setting is spend and the money is gone (or at least locked into a set stage of non-revenue) and that is the second setting I see breaking the economic settings apart in 2026, because this will erupt into something a lot less nice long before we reach 2027 and that is close to 2 years ahead of incoming revenue. Do you still think I am boasting? This is not a boast. It is disappointment, because that setting was clear to me almost a year ago when I wrote ‘And the bubble said ‘Bang’’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/29/and-the-bubble-said-bang/) So I saw this coming a mile away and the others were in the dark? I am not that intelligent, I am pretty clever sop these high paid economists should have see this long before me, or were they hoping that THIS time they could outsmart others? Greed is a vicious circle and will only propagate further greed a game without winners and all who play it lose, or they sell others down the river to get their goods. So how did that end in 2008? The movie Inside Job has a few markers, but who ended the game with a full purse tended to be awfully little and they wasted trillions on that idea and now we get a setting more intense and with more money at play all whilst the previous setting is still hurting a lot of people. Now, the impact will be a lot more dangerous with too many people relying on the setting others give whilst not giving them the full story. How does that usually go over?

A stage that could sink America as I see it, but perhaps I am just a radical depressed individual. Have a great day you all. My Friday begins in less than 5 minutes.

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December 17, 2025 · 21:24

The neighbors have coffee

That is the setting, but that is not what this is about. We are given a setting (at https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/trump-has-ordered-naval-blockade-of-sanctioned-oil-tankers-in-venezuela-he-says/gcrwrmllu) where we see ‘‘Act of war’: Trump orders blockade of ‘sanctioned’ Venezuela oil tankers’ and we see “But Trump on Tuesday pointed to another goal — regaining US access to Venezuelan oil production. The US armada “will only get bigger,” Trump said, until Venezuela returns “to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us.”” But is that true? At what point did Venezuela steal oil from America? Why assets did they steal? What land was stolen? Can we get a clear explanation of that? And if comes with two other settings. The US is pulling out all its troops out of Europe. And in the second setting we see today that one of the most successful American businesses is filing for Bankruptcy. Del Monte originated from California canners in the late 1800s, becoming a household name through the California Packing Corporation (Calpak). It has filed for bankruptcy due to the tariffs on fruits and aluminum. It drove them under in 6 months. And as I see it, a speculated setting is that President Trump will need to sue the BBC, because America is about to lose everything and not one intelligent being will do business with him beginning in 2026. 

As I said so before, America is done for and the longer everything is suspended in ‘investigations’ the longer it takes for the America people to see what hardship they are due for, not for a week or a month, but for several years and that is if someone takes over the helm of the good ship America and takes it in a 180 degree different course, there is no other way and even then it will take half a decade to clear the tourism setting that it now has and rebuild trust (which will speculatively take 3-5 years). 

So as we were given “But Trump on Tuesday pointed to another goal — regaining US access to Venezuelan oil production.” as well as “Caracas blasted Trump’s announcement on Tuesday, saying he aimed at “stealing the riches that belong to our homeland.” Venezuela has been sidestepping US oil sanctions for years, selling crude at a discounted price on the black market, mainly to China. Venezuela is estimated to have oil reserves of some 303 billion barrels, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) — more than any other nation. “If there are no oil exports, it will affect the foreign exchange market, the country’s imports … There could be an economic crisis,” Elias Ferrer of Orinoco Research, a Venezuelan advisory firm, told AFP recently.” As I personally see it (and I might be wrong) America is broke and it is about to lose whatever it has to pay for the interest on the loans they have. The Administration had a setting they tried and it backfired. Greenland isn’t giving up its land, Canada is turning down America and worse still, Canada is now making headway in impressive economic strides for Canada which is also hurting America. As I see it, the stage that was left was to ‘annex’ the Venezuelan oil fields. This is likely to fail, but more disastrous nearly all lands will gain mistrust of the American way which is now showing to be selfish at the expense of all others. That is as I see it the Legacy that President Trump is leaving behind and the sooner others see it the way (several already do) the more America sees the hurt it imposed on itself. 

And when places like Del Monte is filing for bankruptcy, it will not be alone ad the more these places are hidden due to ‘National Security’ or whatever reason is given and others are seemingly ready to follow. There is American Unagi, American Signature, parent company of furnishings retailers American Signature Furniture and Value City and more are on the list of those reading Chapter 11 of the book of economic hardship. All these facts are settings that give America a stage of disaster and the American administration remains in denial. 

Even if America succeeds with Venezuela, America is done for. No-one will trust America for decades. Not the EU, not the Commonwealth and parts of Asia will also shun America. And for a lot Canada is the more trustworthy option, so Canada will de decently well and as we recently saw Lockheed Martin is getting replaced by Saab AB and that is merely the tip of the iceberg. So whilst America withdraws the troops from Europe, Europe has one card left to play. It can throw America out of NATO and that has massive repercussions. You see America has 70,000 troops in Europe, those who are send back will likely lose their jobs, then they get a massive downturn in their defense industry. Which will upset Raytheon, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. All that has a massive economic footprint. When the Europeans turn away from American hardware, America’s economy takes a swift dive into an abyss where it cannot afford the gravy trains it supported and that has other impacts as well. I reckon that the media is next, as American media gets shunned in Europe and the Commonwealth their incomes and more important their influence will wane into near nothingness. 

So am I correct?

I honestly don’t know, but that is what I see, the markers are undeniable and they tend to cross nations, they cross interests and they cross political allies. As I see it, America might in the end have one ally left, Russia. So how does that sit with the anti-communist setting of the Republican Party? And next on that list id the waning of the CIA, you see as the Commonwealth stops trusting America, the CIA us also shunned from the meetings it needs to have and as such it is about to require a lot more money to stay afloat and that is the one thing America no longer has (at least until they get the Venezuelan oil) settings upon settings that sets the game that will be played and America is largely out of moves. They are about to falter in intelligence, they are faltering in business, the will soon falter in media and as I see it, the steps the American administration made towards Hollywood is strengthening Canadian, Australian and British film industries and those settings are getting larger and worse for America. So feel free to disagree and that is fine, but I reckon you need to investigate on yourself and see what the media is hiding from a lot of people. And as I see it, America is about to falter and leave the people in America without anything. Because the AI scare fare is about to cost American wealth trillions of dollars (according to some a number between nine and fifteen) who who gets to pay for all that? Microsoft? OpenAI? I reckon that it will come out of retirement funds and if I am wrong, I am wrong. But do come with actual numbers. We can see “US retirement funds are extensively invested in artificial intelligence (AI), primarily through large index funds, mutual funds, and ETFs that hold significant stakes in major tech companies leading the AI revolution, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet.” As well as “Indirect Investment via Large Cap Tech Holdings: Many common retirement savings options, like S&P 500 index funds or target-date funds, have a large, concentrated exposure to the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, etc.) that are heavily driving AI innovation. Nvidia’s significant market value, for example, means it has a large weighting in many diversified portfolios, creating inherent AI exposure.” That is the bubble fear you should have and when America stops, you better have a sock with reserve funds, because that is all you can live on when it collapses.

Have a great day.

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December 13, 2025 · 21:10

Orchestration

That was on my mind when I was considering a few settings. Orchestration by the media no less. To get the full view to this, I need to explain a few items. The media has NO responsibility to print (or news talk) on any given subject. And there is something called Defamation by omission. 

While defamation typically involves publishing a false statement that harms a reputation, an omission of facts can potentially give rise to liability if what is published is rendered misleading or defamatory as a result. The test is whether the omission gives a defamatory meaning to the published material that would not otherwise be present.

So it does exist, but the setting is extremely difficult to prove. There are more provisions, but they will not be applicable to this setting. As such I leave them by themselves. So two weeks ago we got all that Code Red settings in regards to OpenAI, they were not giving us that they would have to WOW the audience, or was that me saying that? So a few days ago ChatGPT released 5.2 and as far as I can tell there are several dozens of articles, but only Wired gives us some of the goods

With: “OpenAI has introduced GPT-5.2, its smartest artificial intelligence model yet, with performance gains across writing, coding, and reasoning benchmarks. The launch comes just days after CEO Sam Altman internally declared a “code red,” a company-wide push to improve ChatGPT amid intense competition from rivals. “We announced this code red to really signal to the company that we want to marshal resources in one particular area, and that’s a way to really define priorities,” said OpenAI’s CEO of applications, Fidji Simo, in a briefing with reporters on Thursday. “We have had an increase in resources focused on ChatGPT in general.”” Publication and presentation talk, Sam Altman is great at that. But the media? Where are they? Who actually looked at them for the last few days? Where are those articles? 

I am not out for blood, or out to get Sam Altman, I am out to get the media. They are all about the danger setting, but this is becoming out of balance and the media loves their digital dollar raking, but enough is enough. They need to fess up to the settings and do something about it all. If ChatGPT 5.2 is great, fine. I don’t mind, but I want to get the goods and the media is falling short in several ways. Venezuela, OpenAI, Israel, Saudi Arabia and that list goes on, they are (as I personally see it) catering to their need for digital dollars as long as it agrees with the stakeholders they are reporting to.

The Wall Street Journal (at https://www.wsj.com/articles/openai-updates-chatgpt-amid-battle-for-knowledge-workers-995376f9) gives us “The release comes about a week after Chief Executive Sam Altman declared a “code red” effort to improve the quality of ChatGPT and to delay development of some other initiatives, including advertising. The company has been on high alert from the rising threat of Google’s latest Gemini AI model, which outperformed ChatGPT on certain benchmarks including expert-level knowledge, logic puzzles, math problems and image recognition. The new OpenAI model was described by the company as better at math, science and coding benchmarks.” And as I see it, nearly all the media gives exactly the same lines and no one is actually looking into how good ChatGPT is now, or even whether it is or is not. There are investors with Trillions on the line and the media is playing the “distancing game”, only when things go bad they are tripping over each other giving us the lines and at that point the stakeholders have the like it or lump it.

Is no one noticing that part of the equation? 

So, is GPT-5.2 the WOW result everyone is banking on? Did it defeat Gemini 3? I don’t know but the media should have been all over this and they aren’t. As I see it, this is a form of orchestration but to where I don’t know. Is it about the trillions invested (I see that as liability towards investors) is it about the absence of excellence (I see that as liability towards both Google and OpenAI) and there is the liability towards the readers or listeners of whoever they service. So this isn’t defamation, because in all, the media did nothing really wrong. But they sold us short whilst claiming they are there for us and they are not.

So is it me? Or is there is larger setting that is ignored by too many?

I know that some will not agree with me, but after the days of the Code Red, where are the media results of what OpenAI/Sam Altman produced? Not the same hundred words they all seemingly give us, but the real results, the real tests and the real impressions. I haven’t seen one result from them. Even with my limited knowledge (I never used ChatGPT) I could drum up a few tests in seconds and I would put both Gemini 3 and ChatGPT5.2 on the road. I could let them lose on a few of my articles and see what they both come up with and how long it takes them. Something EVERY baboon working in media (sorry, not sorry) could have come up with in mere seconds. Isn’t it lovely that they never came up with that? Think about that for a moment when they give you another runaround on Oracle, like Quartz ‘Oracle’s big AI dreams are freaking out Wall Street’ and Forbes with ‘Oracle Stock Down 14%. Why Higher Risk Makes $ORCL A Sell’ all whilst no one is looking at the true and real value of Oracle. No, the investors must be spooked (for whatever reason). So you all have a great day, we are nearly all in Saturday now and I am a mere 170 minutes away from Sunday. 

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December 8, 2025 · 22:58

A Peter Sellers world

That is what hit me when I saw ‘How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bubble’ (source: Bloomberg) which comes from Dr Strangelove where we get “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb” it started a larger set of thoughts. 

I didn’t use that article as Bloomberg uses a paywall. And it starts with yesterdays article in FXLeaders (at https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/12/07/oracles-ai-bubble-bursts-peak-glory-at-345-now-a-217-hangover/) where we see ‘Oracle’s AI Bubble Bursts: Peak Glory at $345, Now a $217 Hangover’ we are given “ORCL ended the week at $217.58, up 1.52 percent, but it still had a 37 percent hangover from its 52-week high of $345.72. This is a microcosm of growing concerns about debt loads, AI infrastructure spending, and whether the “infinite demand” narrative for AI compute can withstand real-world economics.” As well as “Oracle’s recent decline in stock value reflects broader market concerns regarding the high valuations of AI-related companies, as its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio exceeds 33. The company projects revenues of $166 billion from cloud infrastructure and $20 billion. Investors adopted a “sell the news” mentality, raising questions about the sustainability of these forecasts. Oracle’s fundamentals remain solid. The company experienced  52% growth in cloud infrastructure and has $455 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO), largely due to its partnership with OpenAI. Currently, the stock is trading at 13.9 times projected earnings for the end of this decade, leading some investors to view the decline as a potential buying opportunity.”

As I see it Oracle passed their burst bubble setting. And whilst we see ups and downs, I would unreservedly trust the Oracle stock to be a beacon of steadiness. It might not be sexy, but it is a trustworthy sign for those who need a decent return on investment.

Or as Peter sellers would say:
“As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden. Yes! There will be growth in the spring!” (Source: Being there) it was a better time and weirdly enough the age of Peter Sellers applies to the days that 2025 brings. And from that setting we get to MyNews (at https://sc.mp/ihj4g) where we see ‘Why 2026 will be the year AI hype collides with reality’ an opinion piece that gives me “The reckoning ahead for the AI bubble promises to reprice expectations, force economic trade-offs and call out circular deals” but the stronger setting is given with “Speculative assumptions guiding trillions of US dollars in AI investments are colliding with real-world obstacles. Escalating costs, stratospheric stock valuations, tenuous collaborations and energy bottlenecks are compounding the inevitable challenges when new technologies struggle for profitability. Many are worried the bubble may be bursting. Morgan Stanley projects that the cumulative amount spent worldwide on data centers could exceed US$3 trillion by year-end 2028. China’s AI investment could hit 700 billion yuan (US$99 billion) this year, 48 per cent more than last year, according to Bank of America, with the government supplying US$56 billion.” There is a setting for both ‘AI investments are colliding with real-world obstacles’ and ‘worldwide on data centers could exceed US$3 trillion by year-end 2028’ the weird feeling I have that it will not get this far, this entire setting will implode before the end of 2027, investors will stop feeling lovingly towards the boom that is not coming and will start feeling pressured that the terms required that will grow erratic setting for the need for greed and that is the setting that comes along long before 2027 is reached. 

Then we get to AOL who gives us (at https://www.aol.com/finance/goldman-sachs-issues-warning-ai-103249744.html) where we are given ‘Goldman Sachs issues a warning to AI stock investors’ where we are given ““Our discussions with investors and recent equity performance reveal limited appetite for companies with potential AI-enabled revenues as investors grapple with whether AI is a threat or opportunity for many companies. While we expect the AI trade will eventually transition to Phase 3, investors will likely require evidence of a tangible impact on near-term earnings to embrace these stocks. Unlike Phase 2, there will likely be winners and losers within Phase 3,” Goldman Sachs US equity strategist Ryan Hammond wrote in a new note on Friday. Hammond thinks AI investment as a percentage of capital expenditures could be nearing a climax. In turn, that sets the stage for overly upbeat AI investors to be let down if earnings don’t come in strongly in future quarters.” As I see it, when we are given these settings everyone seems to get concerned, so when we get in addition “Salesforce (CRM) and Figma (FIG) got drilled on Thursday after their earnings reports didn’t wow. It’s clear that the hype on their earnings calls wasn’t enough to paper over soft areas of the earnings reports. Growing concern on the Street centers around the pace of AI demand by corporations, given what looks to be a slowing US economy.” As I stated this before, the need for greed overwhelmed everything. When the setting of NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) is not clearly laid out and it is caught in the waves of board of directors and Investors believing that they have the AI solution everyone is looking for you gets a larger setting, consider that and consider what happens when OpenAI “fails to wow” the investors, or even a delay and it all comes to a large shutdown and that is even before we see 9 News giving us “A Sydney data centre that will host ChatGPT is being hailed as a win for Australia, but an expert warns the country lacks the energy supply needed to power it reliably” I gave a few months ago that there would be an energy problem on numerous levels and now we are seeing that whilst we are dealing with the the fallout of other settings. And less than an hour ago Deutsche Welle gives us ‘Google raises AI stakes as OpenAI struggles to stay on top’  with “Given those strengths, Adrian Cox sees “a very high probability” Google will have the leading model at least into next year — not OpenAI. OpenAI’s priority, he says, is identifying a business model capable of funding a user base that could soon approach a billion people per week.” This is not about OpenAI, I did that already, the larger frame is set in the perception of whatever the bubble is and I believe that there are two factors that the media doesn’t want or is avoiding to include. First there are the doom sayers trying to early burst confidence in favor of short gains and then there are people trying to short on whatever they can so that they can get another jolt of profit and they are all out trying to set social media on their side. 

So if this is the prologue of what is about to unfold we are in for a jolly good time, and as I see it, there is a chance that Christmas for some will be a disaster.

I wanted to include more of Peter sellers, like the Party or the Pink Panther but I am running out of juice. But there was one more thing and I got it from the Independent about an hour ago. It states ‘OpenAI rushes out new AI model in ‘code red’ response to fears about Google’ (at https://ca.news.yahoo.com/openai-rushes-ai-model-code-105822611.html) that was the snippet I was hoping for. With “The ChatGPT creator will unveil GPT-5.2 this week, The Verge reported, after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a “code red” situation following the launch of Google Gemini 3 last month. Google’s latest AI model surpassed ChatGPT in several benchmark tests, including abstract and visual reasoning, as well as advanced knowledge across scientific disciplines.” But that comes in a setting, you see, I stated in ‘TBD CEO OpenAI’ two days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/12/06/tbd-ceo-openai/) “in a software release any of a hundred things can go wrong and they all need to go right at present.” And when things are rushed out things will go wrong. But there is a snag, for this to happen The Independent article had to be correct and as they are the only one giving us this, there is no real verification available. But when you are in a stage when bubbles go boom (or plop) all the available facts become important. And I massively wish that a Peter sellers setting would help me out. And perhaps in view of this, his classic phrase “It’s no matter. When you’ve seen one Stradivarius, you’ve seen them all.” Especially when looking at NIP software. But that is also the snag. I have seen excellent applications and I have seen lesser ones. I reckon that it amounts to who plays the violin, if it is a creative person that person will find new life in whatever that person. applies NIP to, if it is a salesperson it will be about maximizing greed and that setting tends to have limitations on several degrees. In addition we are given “The new model was originally scheduled to launch in late December, but will now be released as early as 9 December.” I understand the pressures that come with this but they better understand that early launch bring dangers and investors don’t really like to be spooked (they also don’t like them) What we see is open to interpretation and it is a valid thought that my views are also open to interpretation. 

So in this I leave you all with a presenting view not unlike Peter sellers would say “To see me as a person on screen would be one of the dullest experiences you could ever wish to experience” and 

As you I have never been in a movie (at least I don’t remember being in one) you are spared that dull experience. So have a great day and don’t forget to love the bubble (if you haven’t invested your wealth there).

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