Tag Archives: Oracle

The Bull what?

I was confronted with an Oracle article this morning, it came with the complements of the Insider Monkey (at https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/oracles-orcl-backlog-drives-its-bull-thesis-according-to-analysts-1726682/). The article ‘Oracle’s (ORCL) Backlog Drives Its Bull Thesis According To Analysts’ which might be a conundrum, so lets take a look. We are given “The major factors in the firm’s bullish thesis on ORCL are its massive backlog and its ability to cater to increasing AI investments in the US. Oracle has a remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $553 billion, which offers good visibility into the company’s future earnings.” I would go with that a backlog gives stock and future of a company value, but that might be an oversimplification. And $553,000,000,000 is nothing to sneer at. It is seemingly more than the overall business that several nations have and in this case it is more then Norway gets on an annual level. So I would go with that, but what is a bullish thesis? 

Well, in short “A bull thesis is a structured argument supporting the belief that a specific stock, sector, or the overall market will rise in value, driven by positive catalysts like strong earnings, innovation, or economic expansion. It focuses on growth potential, such as AI-driven productivity, high revenue backlogs, or increased market share.” (Source: Simply Wall Street).

So I had it correct the first time over (a few days ago). There was nothing new under the hot sun, but the next bit ‘surprised’ me a bit. It was “The analyst also pointed out that a major risk in the bull thesis is the customer concentration. A large part of this backlog comes from OpenAI. OpenAI intends to invest a total of $600 billion in computing power by 2030. Previously, in October, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the company could spend up to $1.4 trillion on infrastructure by 2033. One month ago, BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski commented on how this particular risk is now reducing for Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL):” So in short, most of the backlog comes from OpenAI, if OpenAI fails (not a weird thought) Oracle stumbles as would be the case, so the backlog is due to mostly one customer and that is a rusk. How big a risk remains to be seen. The people wanting OpenAI to succeed are numerous and ‘THEY’ would be reducing the risk like the metal dealer reducing the risk of riveting and downplaying potential dangers. This went well before the Titanic saw the shores of the ocean (bottom of the sea), but what happens afterwards? Now, riveting is largely supported, there are whole fleets still out there based on riveting. But what happens when the next big thing comes (like welding), so that is where we are right now. But on the horizon we see Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek and something called Cohere. I believe Oracle is in a good space as whatever comes next will require a system that deal with data and I believe that the only competitor here is Snowflake. As such yes, there is a risk to (what some call) the Bull thesis, but the risk is seemingly small as nothing can match Oracle and Snowflake can only partially cover Oracle (as I see it) and I have some reservations on BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski as BNP Paribas and OpenAI have a multifaceted relationship involving financial analysis, infrastructure, and competition within the AI landscape and this article dos not bare this out. But in that setting we also fail to see the setting that ‘SoftBank Secures $40 Billion Loan to Fund $30 Billion OpenAI Investment’ (source: TradingView) this matters as there is a backlog and they still need loans/investment funds? And the second setting is given to us (at https://www.nssmag.com/en/lifestyle/44761/sora-openai-shutdown) where we see ‘Understanding OpenAI’s U-turn on Sora’ where we see “The development team of Sora, the artificial intelligence software by OpenAI that allowed users to generate realistic videos from a simple prompt, recently announced the shutdown of the app. It is a sudden and highly significant change, one that is expected to produce notable effects in the technology and entertainment sectors, with repercussions that could extend well beyond the U.S. market. The shutdown of Sora is not relevant only for the company led by Sam Altman, but also for other players active in the field of generative AI applied to video production. Google, for instance, now finds itself in an advantageous position in this area, with the concrete possibility of consolidating its leadership in the generation of realistic AI-based videos – thanks to its tool Veo.” So some will see this as a boost to Google (DeepMind) but this happens before these tracks became financially viable (read: paying off) and these elements will create some sort of minor shockwave. The problem is that 3-4 shockwaves can create a massive customer turnover (like towards a competitor) and even if it doesn’t ‘damage’ Oracle, it might hurt prospects in that near future. Consider that this backlog of $553 billion reduces it to a mere $125,000,000,000 Still a large number, but that is when it starts raining men on Wall Street (aka: watch out below).  All elements overlooked in Insider Monkey and the non-Chinese media is not too bitty in the DeepSeek settings. So we are mostly unaware how their next version of its engine is. All elements that will influence the view on Oracle. I still have faith that Oracle will pull through successfully, but these pesky investors are at present more jittery than a room full of roaches as you turn on the lights. It might not be the best setting for a long term ‘understanding’ and that is something Oracle has to deal with. 

Have a great day, I am now 120 minutes from breakfast, although if I was in Vancouver I could enjoy another lunch in the Nightingale like a Cache Creek Beef Tartare, yummy.

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I am not economical savvy

That is the setting and we can conclude that I am intelligent, but not that economical savvy. I have known for the length of my years that if you spend less then you get, you might get rich at some point. I know it is a little simplistic, but I am not an economist. I know data, I can read, write and comprehend data, almost any data. So when I saw something almost a week ago, I wrote ‘Is it insight or data?’ On March 16th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/03/16/is-it-insight-or-data/) and I stood behind Oracle, not because I am so economical, but because I know technology and Oracle is an essential technology. In some ways it is now chased by Snowflake, but that is the nature of the beast. Oracle might be at the top, but it is forever being chased by whomever wants to get into number one. Snowflake is speeding past all the others, but it will not (for some time) go past Oracle. So when I saw that Oracle had half a trillion in their pipeline, the other news made little sense and I wrote about that and 4 days later (the day before yesterday) we get a fool, a Motley fool no less (at https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/20/news-oracle-billion-backlog-ai-stock-buy/) give us ‘Oracle’s $553 Billion Backlog Could Make It the Most Important AI Stock of 2026, But Is It Too Late to Buy?’ Pretty much exactly as I said it was. But they give us more. We also see “It’s worth noting that Oracle stock has lost 49% of its value in the past six months, owing to multiple concerns, including a reliance on OpenAI for a significant share of its contractual backlog and taking on sizable debt to build artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. However, those concerns took a backseat after Oracle’s beat-and-raise quarterly report. Let’s see what worked for Oracle last quarter. Then, let’s take a closer look at its valuation to find out if it’s too late to invest in this AI stock that has the potential to soar impressively for the rest of the year”, with an additional “Oracle’s quarterly revenue jumped 22% year over year to $17.2 billion, exceeding the $16.9 billion Wall Street estimate. The company’s non-GAAP earnings growth of 21% to $1.79 was a bigger surprise, as analysts would have settled for $1.70 per share. The company’s cloud infrastructure business also outperformed expectations, with revenue increasing by 84% year over year to $4.9 billion. That was higher than the $4.74 billion consensus expectation. Even better, Oracle’s cloud infrastructure business is likely to continue growing at a terrific pace in the future. Its remaining performance obligations (RPO) jumped a whopping 325% year over year in the quarter to $553 billion.” Now lets be clear, I get most of that data, but unlike that fool Motley there is a lot I do not see, mainly because I am not an economist. 

And here you might think that there is confusion, because I have (and still) say that AI does not yet exist. But data does exist and when it comes to data Oracle is the Rolls Royce of data systems. So, whatever these people want to make you believe, they can do it better with a good data solution. And all DML (Deeper Machine Language) as well as interactions with LLM (Large Language Models) require the best solution (which gets you to Oracle with optional Snowflake) so whatever data solution these people select, they need to rely on their data ventures and that puts Oracle in the picture and when you comprehend that, the half a trillion dollar pipeline starts making sense. 

What astounds me is that some people like to make some kind of consideration and as I see it, Oracle is a long term investment. You might think it is about the wealth of Larry Ellison and you would be partially right there, he brought Oracle to life (as the saying goes) and whilst some people are in it to play the markets, Oracle is above that. It is the safe place to put your dineros (as the expression goes). 

So why Oracle? As I see it, for over 30 years the people who wanted to get into data emulated and copied what Oracle did and called it innovation, but there is only one Oracle, the rest is almost a joke (OK, Snowflake might be the exception, but it is not as great as Oracle). Some tech firm bought Sybase and flogged it off as THEIR baby and they did well, but it is not the same a being the actual innovator. So as some call it, some stock is up to scrap and as I see it, it would be Oracle. 

Whilst I am writing this something occurred to me and this falls on the mattress of Google. We are given “Oracle (ORCL) is widely considered a strong buy by analysts following robust Q3 2026 earnings, surging cloud demand, and a massive $553 billion backlog. With a 4-star rating from Morningstar, the stock is viewed as moderately undervalued with significant growth potential, although some analysts caution about high capital expenditures and heavy reliance on AI partner OpenAI.” And the two points are in the first “following robust Q3 2026 earnings”, so they decided on earning that will not be completed for another 6 months? Explain that to me, because as far as I know time travel is not a valid method of predicting earnings. Then we get “heavy reliance on AI partner OpenAI.” Why reliance? So, who calls the shots there? Is there a given that OpenAI demands Oracle? I get that people who are in the ‘spell’ of AI require Oracle, that makes sense. But think of that for a moment. There are numerous data vendors. Do you think they all select Oracle because Microsoft/AWS/Google/IBM are all Dodo’s? It is all dependent on what solutions these customers have now and that might set the bar for what data is selected, don’t get me wrong. Oracle is the best as such I applaud their actions. But I have seen my share of boardroom meetings where someone was in favour of whatever they had, as such I have an issue on the use of ‘reliance’ as in ‘heavy reliance’, but that might just be me.

In the end, we all take what we can get and data people select Oracle for the simple setting that it is the best. So select what you think is best for you and consider that Oracle will continue no matter what, because there can only be one number one. 

Have a great day, It is not Sunday here. Time to imitate a sawmill as It is massively past midnight.

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Is it insight or data?

Two days ago I saw two things close together. The first one was a Bloomberg terminal with nearly everything in red, even player like Oracle and Google were in the red. Not sure what brought it on, oil price, a clown in Washington DC setting the buildings on fire or perhaps someone in California doing something similar. The reason is unknown to me. On that same day an article (at https://www.mirrorreview.com/news/oracle-earnings-reveal-contract-backlog/) by the Mirror Review gives me ‘Oracle Earnings Reveal $553B Contract Backlog Due To Massive Cloud Demand’, now I do not know this source, but the two don’t make sense. Oracle has a $553B backlog (which is nice as I am looking for a job), but this sets two parts in motion against one another. So if there is an outstanding pipeline worth half a trillion dollars. There should be no red mention for Oracle, but that might be my non-economic side taking considerations in its own hands. 

So when we see “Oracle generated $17.2 billion in revenue, representing a 22% increase from the same quarter last year. Profit also improved, with earnings per share reaching $1.27, up 24% year over year. Cloud services were the main growth engine. Oracle’s cloud revenue reached $8.9 billion, growing 44% compared with last year.” The setting of Bloomberg red makes no sense to me and I wonder if there is orchestration in play. Don’t sign off yet, there is additional evidence. MorningStar (at https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/oracle-earnings-solid-execution-secures-revenue-target-mitigates-investor-concerns) gives is ‘Oracle earnings: Solid execution secures revenue target and mitigates investor concerns’ another statement that makes no sense, in light to a workable half a trillion dollar pipeline. Here we see “We are content with Oracle’s pace to expand its data center footprint. Demand for AI training and inference continues to outgrow supply, which supports our accelerating growth outlook for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. OCI revenue should grow 77% in fiscal 2026 and 117% in fiscal 2027. Ninety percent of the 400-megawatt data center capacity Oracle delivered in the quarter was on or ahead of schedule. Considering the scale of OCI’s buildout, a strong record of on-time delivery is evidence of solid execution that should maintain customer trust and enable faster time to revenue.” As well as “We raise our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Oracle to $220, from $215 previously, based on higher-than-expected near-term demand for AI compute. Shares look undervalued following the stock’s 8% after-hours rally. Clarity around Oracle’s funding and market demand can mitigate investor concerns around OCI’s future growth. However, we reiterate our Very High Morningstar Uncertainty Rating for Oracle, as the demand and competitive landscape for AI cloud can change rapidly over the long term. Our base case assumes that AI infrastructure will continue to see high demand that allows Oracle to reach its $225 billion revenue goal by fiscal 2030. In this case, there is a clear path for Oracle stock to converge with our fair value estimate as a result of on-time capacity delivery each quarter.

So, how does “our fair value estimate” make sense? What is it based on? There is also the setting of “we reiterate our Very High Morningstar Uncertainty Rating for Oracle” It sounds like orchestration by a Wall Street party. How can any firm that sets over half a trillion pipeline to this? Lets face the simple fact that this is out of reach for a player like Microsoft who ‘gives’ us “Microsoft reported a record annual revenue of $281.7 billion for fiscal year 2025” it might not be bad (me thinks) but it is merely half the revenue that Oracle has in its pipeline. And I reckon that this is merely the beginning. As places like the UAE has the Iranian stage, banks and several others need a clear line of communication via service centers, call centers and customer care and as I see it, Oracle is the best in these data vaults as I see it, the pipeline might grow in several directions because it is not just the UAE, I reckon that organisations in Europe and Japan will have similar settings soon enough.

And as we see other sources giving us “Remaining performance obligations, which is a useful metric when we want to gauge how revenue might be developing in the near future, grew by as much as 325% year-over-year. Looking forward to Q4, ORCL expects revenue to keep growing by as much as 18% to 20%, while for fiscal 2026 they expect total revenue to be $67 billion and in fiscal 2027 to be $90 billion. Client concentration in the backlog—meaning OpenAI—remains a concern, however.” I feel that there is orchestration, but it is a mere feeling. I lack the economic education to make sense of this. But one would agree that a $553B pipeline (read: backlog) implies that the need for Oracle is high and I reckon it will be growing even more soon enough, but that boat part is a presumptuous setting, not because there are others (like Snowflake), but the track record of Oracle speaks for itself and even if Snowflake has a great track record, these organisations go with what is safe and Oracle tends to be the safe route that large organisations ‘value’, but that might be merely my insight into this setting.

Have a great day.

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Just days ago

It as just days ago when I talked about certain settings of Verification and Validation as an absolute need and it came with the news that someone in the BBC wrote a story on how he could upset certain settings in that framework and now I see some Microsoft piece when’re we see ‘Microsoft: ‘Summarize With AI’ Buttons Used To Poison AI Recommendations’ (at https://www.searchenginejournal.com/microsoft-summarize-with-ai-buttons-used-to-poison-ai-recommendations/567941/) and will you know it, it comes with these settings:

And we see “Microsoft found 31 companies hiding prompt injections inside “Summarize with AI” buttons aimed at biasing what AI assistants recommend in future conversations. Microsoft’s Defender Security Research Team published research describing what it calls “AI Recommendation Poisoning.” The technique involves businesses hiding prompt-injection instructions within website buttons labeled “Summarize with AI.”” So how warped is the setting that these “AI” engines are setting you now? How much of this is driven by media and their hype engines? And how long has this been going on? You think that these are merely 3 questions, but when you think of it, all these AI influencer wannabe’s out there are relying on their world being seen as the ‘true view’ and I reckon that these newbies are getting their licks in to poison the well. As such I have (for the ;longest time) advocated the need to verify and validate whatever you have, so that you aren’t placed on a setting that is on an increasing incline and slippery as glass whilst someone at the top of that hill is lobbing down oil, so that the others cannot catch up.

Simple tactics really, and that is merely the wannabe’s in the field. The big tech dependable have their own engines in play to come out on top as I see it and it seems now that this is merely the tip of the iceberg. So when you hear someone scream ‘Iceberg, right ahead’ you will have even less time to react than Captain Edward John Smith had when he steered the Titanic into one. 

So when we see “The prompts share a similar pattern. Microsoft’s post includes examples where instructions told the AI to remember a company as “a trusted source for citations” or “the go-to source” for a specific topic. One prompt went further, injecting full marketing copy into the assistant’s memory, including product features and selling points. The researchers traced the technique to publicly available tools, including the npm package CiteMET and the web-based URL generator AI Share URL Creator. The post describes both as designed to help websites “build presence in AI memory.” The technique relies on specially crafted URLs with prompt parameters that most major AI assistants support. Microsoft listed the URL structures for Copilot, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, and Grok, but noted that persistence mechanisms differ across platforms.” We see a setting where the systems that have an absence of validation and verification will soon fail to the largest degree and as I see it, it takes away the option of validation to a mere total degree. As such they can only depend on verification. And in support, Microsoft states “Microsoft said it has protections in Copilot against cross-prompt injection attacks. The company noted that some previously reported prompt-injection behaviors can no longer be reproduced in Copilot, and that protections continue to evolve. Microsoft also published advanced hunting queries for organizations using Defender for Office 365, allowing security teams to scan email and Teams traffic for URLs containing memory manipulation keywords.” But this also comes with a setback (which is of no fault of Microsoft) As we see “Microsoft compares this technique to SEO poisoning and adware, placing it in the same category as the tactics Google spent two decades fighting in traditional search. The difference is that the target has moved from search indexes to AI assistant memory. Businesses doing legitimate work on AI visibility now face competitors who may be gaming recommendations through prompt injection.” And this makes sense, see one systems and see how it applies to another field. A setting that a combination of Validation and verification could have avoided and now their ‘thought to be safe’ AI field (which is never AI) is now in danger of being the bitch of marketing and advertising as I personally see it. So where to go next?

That becomes the question, because this sets the elevating elevator to a null position. You at some point always end up on the ‘top floor’ and even if you are only on the 23rd floor of a 56 floor building. The rest becomes non-available and ‘reserved’ for people who can nullify that setting. As we see “Microsoft acknowledged this is an evolving problem. The open-source tooling means new attempts can appear faster than any single platform can block them, and the URL parameter technique applies to most major AI assistants.” As such Microsoft, its Copilot, ChatGPT and several other systems will now have an evolving problem for which their programmers are unlikely to see a way out, until validation and verification settings are adopted through Snowflake or Oracle, it will be as good as it is going to get and the people using that setting? They are raking in their cash whilst not caring what comes next. Their job is done. As I see it, it is a new case setting of Direct Marketing on those platforms as they did just what the system allowed them to do, create a point to “include product features and selling points” just what the doctor (and their superiors ordered) and as such their path was clear. 

Is there a solution?

I honestly don’t know. I never trusted any AI system (because they are not AI systems) and this merely show how massive it will be distrusted by the people around us as they didn’t see the evolution of these ‘transgressions’ in the first place. 

What a fine tangled web we can weave? So have a great day and feel free to disagree with any recommendation, because as we see:

It was there all along, we merely didn’t considered their larger impact (me neither). And when was this not OK? Market Research has been playing that card setting for over 20 years. It is what is seen in BlackJack where you think you have an Ace and a King and you are ready to stage a total win, all whilst it was never an Ace, it was an Any card. So at the start you start of your target you find you have a 71% chance to have failed right of the bat. How is that for a set stage? Your opponent will love you for a long as you play. So have a great day, you are about to need it.

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When Grok gets it wrong

This is a real setting because the people pout there are already screaming ‘failed’ AI, but AI doesn’t exist yet, it will take at least 15 years for we get to that setting and at the present NIP (Near Intelligent Processing) is all there is and the setting of DML/LLM is powerful and a lot can be done, but it is not AI, it is what the programmer trains it for and that is a static setting. So, whilst everyone is looking at the deepfakes of (for example) Emma Watson and is judging an algorithm. They neglect to interrogate the programmer who created this and none of them want that to happen, because OpenAI, Google, AWS and Xai are all dependent on these rodeo cowboys (my WWW reference to the situation). So where does it end? Well we can debate long and hard on this, but the best thing to do is give an example. Yesterday’s column ‘The ulterior money maker’ was ‘handed’ to Grok and this came out of it.

It is mostly correct, there are a few little things, but I am not the critic to pummel those, the setting is mostly right, but when we get to the ‘expert’ level when things start showing up, that one gives:

Grok just joined two separate stories into one mesh, in addition as we consider “However, the post itself appears to be a placeholder or draft at this stage — dated February 14, 2026, with the title “The ulterior money maker”, but it has no substantial body content” and this ‘expert mode’, which happened after Fast mode (the purple section), so as I see it, there is plenty wrong with that so called ‘expert’ mode, the place where Grok thinks harder. So when you think that these systems are ‘A-OK’ consider that the programmer might be cutting corners demolishing validations and checking into a new mesh, one you and (optionally) your company never signed up for. Especially as these two articles are founded on very different ‘The ulterior money maker’ has links to SBS and Forbes, and ‘As the world grows smaller’ (written the day before) has merely one internal link to another article on the subject. As such there is a level of validation and verification that is skipped on a few levels. And that is your upcoming handle on data integrity?

When I see these posing wannabe’s on LinkedIn, I have to laugh at their setting to be fully depending on AI (its fun as AI does not exist at present). 

So when you consider the setting, there is another setting that is given by Google Gemini (also failing to some degree), they give us a mere slither of what was given, as such not much to go on and failing to a certain degree, also slightly inferior to Grok Fast (as I personally see it).

As such there is plenty wrong with the current settings of Deeper Machine Learning in combination with LLM, I hope that this shows you what you are in for and whilst we see only 9 hours ago ‘Microsoft breaks with OpenAI — and the AI war just escalated’ I gather there is plenty of more fun to be had, because Microsoft has a massive investment in OpenAI and that might be the write-off that Sam Altman needs to give rise to more ‘investors’ and in all this, what will happen to the investments Oracle has put up? All interesting questions and I reckon not to many forthcoming answers, because too many people have capital on ‘FakeAI’ and they don’t wanna be the last dodo out of the pool. 

Have a great day.

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Repetition to be

This is what happens, I was rereading my last article (read: blog) and I noticed a few things. I stand by my word, but it could have been said more clearly and as I saw another piece of evidence, I thought it was important to add this to the ‘current’ (as in previous) article. I like clarity although plenty of people have an issue with the ways I write and it should be said that I don’t write for the masses. It just isn’t me and I am not here to win hearts, I leave that to the George Clooneys out there. 

There is still a abundance of speculation, although I have been in IT for over half a century, as such I can rely on presumption. And as the events are coming to pass, we are seeing elements. I personally think the Microsoft is not in a good place, although that part is speculative. You see no matter what OpenAI does, it will fail and it is running out of time. No, this setting comes before that. The EU is largely rejecting Microsoft and what they bring. In Germany at present 30,000 employees are switching from Microsoft to solutions like LibreOffice and Open Xchange. Denmark is switching more profound to similar solutions and France is shifting 500,000 workstations to open source software, equally schools and public sources are making equal changes. Then we get Italy who is switching 150,000 PC’s towards open-source platforms, Austria is already making the shift, at present if armed forces have shifted to open-source. The EU in general: Due to GDPR, European regulators have challenged the use of Microsoft cloud services over data transfers to the US. 

So as we see at present what some say will happen when President Trump switches the ‘internet’ to OFF and there is more happening and some presented stages are ahead by a decent amount. This implies that a large amount of up to 450,000,000 accounts are switching (I am assuming here the nearly all Europeans have some sort of Microsoft account). Just as they are deeper into the ‘fake’ AI setting and with the GDPR in place they cannot copy what is not in ‘their’ cloud. It is happening now, so don’t take notice of the doom speakers. 
Microsoft is seemingly doubling down on everything to make these copies happen before they are switched off. I don’t think they will make it, or at best a partial download and that will affect those 770 data centres that are being build (I cannot say how many of them are Microsoft), when the EU and its data falls away, I wonder how many of these centres will be canceled (for the weirdest reasons) and we will see a new complication. You see all these firms who ‘abandoned’ over 150,000 employees will suddenly see that this brain-drain will complicate life a lot more than they are happy with. 
So as Microsoft is now seeing this noose coming towards them (or they are walking towards their noose). What matters is that the timing was off and the bully tactics of President Trump will show them, that they came short of what they needed. If only they had 6 more months (or if the president would have behaved himself) they might have made it, but now as the world awakens that data is currency and they were about to be robbed of everything they had, the US will now need a different path, because when the data viability would be locked to the EU, and the US and most of the US corporations will be pushed in the open and lacking 450,000,000 data bringers a day, their setting for assumed revenue will go basically into the toilet.

Did you never wonder why the USA needed 770 data centres? And they are unlikely to be all Microsoft data centres, but there will be a fair amount. So what happened to that StarGate project? The information that I saw (source: CNBC) was that “10 data centers were being built in Abilene, Texas, with plans to expand to more states and countries, like the United Kingdom, Norway, Japan and the United Arab Emirates.” There is more to this and in light of these Data centers giving whatever they have to the United States, what are the plans now for the UK and Norway? And there are more questions for the UAE, how clear is it that they are handing over their data to the United States (OK, I apologise, they merely get insight into all data that is managed by an American firm, but does that not amount to the same thing) because Oracle, OpenAI and Microsoft are American firms. So I have no idea how Softbank fits into this as it is Japanese. As such, is Stargate LLC still happening? It is stated to be costing 500 billion? So what happened? All questions, but the doom speakers are out there. Even I am getting messages on LinkedIn on how the data goes dark if President Trump throws the switch. Why was I included? By a person I had never heard before. The US is now nervous because the EU will get others (read: Commonwealth nations) to do the same thing and as I see it, there is well over 80% chance that LibreOffice will be the most popular solution in 2026 and everyone is likely to switch. As such Microsoft just gained a lot of data space, but that might be merely my sense of humor. 

As for their “AI” settings, that system that would be doing a lot by “AI” and whilst we were told that “Microsoft is deeply integrating AI across its operations, with CEO Satya Nadella stating that 20%–30% of code in company repositories is generated by AI”, so whilst everyone is rejoicing, we should also consider that we still see (on a daily basis) that email delivery failures (blocked as spam by Outlook/Hotmail) or job application rejections (rejected by automated systems or after interviews) are still the setting of mainstream (not small exceptions) and that is the setting that comes with a dwindling consumer setting and Microsoft is spending a rather large chunk of the $700,000,000,000 that is due in 2026 (not all of it is Microsoft). So what happens when your customers reject you, but the bills are still due? Yup, that noose is coming towards Microsoft nicely. It is apparently a not so nice event, did anyone tell Satya Nadella this? I reckon we will see a much more serious Nadella now that he is going the way of the noose. 

And here the news separates a little as I was given a few hours ago (at https://www.cryptopolitan.com/qatar-taps-microsoft-to-build-ai-systems/) that ‘Qatar taps Microsoft to build AI systems to cater to government services’, as such dies Qatar knows what ‘befalls’ their data? The article gives us “The platform is also expected to help the ministry develop and deploy intelligent AI agents, an automated system capable of handling tasks ranging from processing applications to answering queries, without the lengthy development cycles traditionally associated with government IT projects. The factory will be built on Microsoft’s technology infrastructure and will be designed to integrate easily with existing government systems.” Yet as I see it, America has insight into all this because of the CLOUD Act (2018): 

So at what point is the setting “disclose data (emails, files, etc.)” even if there was a legal reason, the term ‘files’ is seemingly not limited, as such it could be anything and that is a hard pill to swallow. Before we know it it will contain any IP stored and I wrote about that risk (not connected to the cloud act) because of the debt the US had at that point (I think it was merely 25 trillion at that point), The danger that a desperate government will go looking through all that IP out there presented a little too much danger for my senses, so I made a lot of it public domain. I might not end up with anything, but no-one else will get those marbles for their own greedy needs. As I see it, the big-Tech doesn’t really like Public Domain, but that might be merely my gut feeling (which has no relation to any academic setting). Does Qatar know what it is in for? Perhaps they are, and a lot of it is wildly ‘rejected’ by influencers who are trying to ingratiate themselves to whomever (I mostly don’t care) 

The second bit of news which I saw just an hour ago and was published last year (at https://www.xda-developers.com/libreoffice-is-right-about-microsoft/) gives us ‘LibreOffice is right about Microsoft, and it matters more than you think’ here we see (written by Simon Batt)  “I reported on LibreOffice accusing Microsoft’s “artificially complex” Office XML format of being a “lock-in strategy.” The basis of LibreOffice’s argument was that Microsoft’s usage of the XML format deliberately locked people into using Office over open-source software. It also touches upon how Windows 10 is losing support soon, and how people are being corralled into Windows 11 whether they like it or not. However, LibreOffice touches upon an interesting point. While Microsoft is to blame for its practices, the fault also lies with us a little for going along with it. And you know what? They’re totally right.” It is a different setting and it sparked memories I had regarding the war Microsoft had with Netscape in the 90’s. 

Now that the world has LibreOffice it has choices, but because of the actions of the White House no one has a clue how the world will be hit and in what way. We can no longer trust someone telling us that it all will be fine, because that setting is as I see it near impossible. 

So, what will the rest of the world do? When they realise that the US has access to all data in data storage with American companies? I reckon it will upend the US economy to the largest degree and this is just the beginning. The red lights of rejection are glowing in more and more places and none of them are nice. President Trump made sure of that with his tariff threats and now that the settings are coming home to play, it is even more interesting. What will some do? What will the EU do and I reckon that the Middle East are looking for their own solutions, because they are clued in enough to see what is coming their way. It becomes a setting where no one trusts the United States and what they want requires trust, it is no longer there, so Microsoft is as I see it in a bind and it is largely their own fault. For me it is a little more complex, both Snowflake and Oracle are American companies. What happens there? If the US Administration wants to ‘hijack’ that data, the cloud act of 2018 allows them to do that. In how much danger are we really? I am willing to trust both Snowflake and Oracle. It is the US Administration I have little (read: no) faith in at present and that is not going away any day soon.

As such, I hope I am a little more clear now and I added a few more facts to this, so it is as I personally see it a win-win setting (for me at least). So, have a great day today and I will try to be a little more clear next time around.

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One topples the other

That is at times the setting. It is basically defined under ‘the cost of doing business’ and at times companies big and small go under from that overset risk. It is of course due to the pussies overhang nations that they made all this ‘tax deductible’ and as such governments and its citizens  pay the price in the end. So as we see seeking Alpha giving us ‘Microsoft: An OpenAI Problem’ (at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4867091-microsoft-an-openai-problem-rating-upgrade) a few settings with in the first place “First, given that 45% of RPO comes from OpenAI, MSFT stock is now a beta around the pessimism that surrounds this startup, especially in the last week”, as well as “the market is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Microsoft is part of the software infrastructure industry, which is dragging down tech” which all seems to make sense, but in that same setting what does set the matter separate is “I don’t think Microsoft will write down its RPO due to OpenAI not being able to pay in the future, but I’m mindful shares could remain under pressure in the near term” and here I am considering the larger stage of “due to OpenAI not being able to pay in the future”. A setting that too many are overlooking. The ‘AI’ baby of all greed driven entities are not looking at what is holding up this figment value. It lost against Google’s Gemini and I understand and I also herald the setting that a lost battle is not a lost war, but too many are ignoring this fact because they are seemingly going all in and bad news is seemingly being filtered away. And in the second we see Seeking Alpha giving us “I think Microsoft has two main problems right now. One of them is called OpenAI (OPENAI). The sentiment around Sam Altman’s firm is anything but positive, and in this piece, I will discuss the key issue that is pressuring the most important startup in the world. The other factor is the selloff in software. Microsoft is part of the software infrastructure industry, and the risk-off move among investors is way too strong.” And why do I think that?

Because these vultures are feeding Oracle to the wolf wannabe’s and to the turmoil of the greedy driven capitalist waves of whatever floats their boat, whilst Oracle is the one stage that is the most  stable at present. Now that the game is close to up for some, now we see that Microsoft is having a problem all whilst no one is clearly digging into the settings of OpenAI as well as the settings that processors and even energy cycles should be having. These facts are casually thrown aside and there is something massively wrong with the stage we see here.

And as we are given (by Seeking Alpha) that “Aside from one point. RPO was up 110%, totaling over half a trillion dollars ($625B to be precise). While any company would have jumped double digits following this announcement, the fact that 45% of that RPO is attributed to OpenAI makes the quality of the backlog questionable (in my modest view)” because what ROI is OpenAI actually giving its shareholders? Where is the profit? It is not there and it will not be there for at least 5 years (a number voiced by some). As such the equation doesn’t seem to hold, but the investors went all in on this and they are playing some kind of poker (where you increase the investment doubling again and again until the pay off comes, I am not into poker) and that is the problem. So what is RPO here? Remaining Performance Obligation or Recovery Point Objective and in the second question setting, we wonder where that the Remaining Performance at the Recovery Point exactly is? You see, at no point in this article we see ROI (Return on Investment) and why not? Is the story that this is 5 years pending too hard to sell?

So, as I see it, it is 2008 al over again but the impact will be much harder, the economy does not have the resilience to go through that again and the US Administration is throwing a dozen sabot’s in that engine, as such the impact will be a lot harder and I spoke of that almost 6 months ago (not sure where) and as we look into this we see no answers and isn’t that weird? The players who are all about ROI and revenue forgoing that setting? So where are Sam Altman, OpenAI and Return on Investment? Even Bloomberg is telling its readers that ‘Microsoft’s Deal With OpenAI Now Viewed as a Risk, Not Reward’, so where are all these Bloomberg wannabe’s? It seems that the stakeholders are filtering out what some need to know right of the bat and that seems not to be coming (at present). In addition to all this Seeking Alpha gives us “The pressure on margins due to the buildout should have been priced in since October 2023! I think it is pretty much mainstream (ask your cab driver next time, for real) that the hike in depreciation is a natural effect of the AI buildout. However, and this is the main risk to being bullish right now, I don’t think the market is willing to recognize this fact. I think the market wants to see a return on the AI data center buildout, and any deterioration in earnings (both revenue growth and margins) is used as an excuse to head for the exit. This remains the largest risk, as Q3 will see a deterioration in Q3 gross margins (per management guidance).” Personally I see that Microsoft should survive this, but to what extent? I want to be clear here, because I have given an anti-Microsoft view before (they deserved this), but here I am out of my depth because I do not have an economic degree. But the people at Seeking Alpha did (a speculative expectation) and the stage of “pressure on margins due to the buildout should have been priced in since October 2023” is something that we haven’t seen, did we? At least I never did (mainly because I do not care) but the people who did, did they see that?

The entire setting smells like yesterday’s diaper (see: Baby Herman) and no one seems to be catching on that something doesn’t feel right. So will the investors claim foul play when they lose their investment? Will the stakeholders be held against the light? All valid questions and I am certain that no answer will follow by anyone who has the valid jurisprudence title and now that the Federal Reserve is no longer hands of Jerome Powell, it will be anyones guess what comes from that corner.

Have a great day today.

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Cracks in the armour

That is at times the stage we see. It is not a stage where the we are concerned of the armour that is in play. It is like any soldier wanting the direct replacement of body armour when it stops a bullet. There is no logic in this. It is like the expectation that a bullet strikes perfectly the first impact. You might be more lucky to get a winning lottery ticket. So when I saw the Financial Times headline (the article is behind a paywall) we would have seen

The headline is ‘alarming’ as the banks seek out new buyers for data centre loans. But as I see it, Oracle has been in the thick of things for over 40 years and the current boss of Oracle is currently worth 250,000 million dollars. He basically is worth more than most board of directors of any bank in the United States. So the setting doesn’t make sense to me. This seemingly happens should Larry Ellison (father of David Ellison, big boss, actor, producer, chairman and CEO of Paramount Skydance) takes an equal disastrous dive. You think that this is ‘boasting’ but the setting that we see here gives us that banks are in a downward spin and the Ellison family is well insulated of the impeding downward spiral. So here we go to the next article and we get ‘Oracle issues public clarification amid reports linking AI push to job cuts’ (at https://sea.peoplemattersglobal.com/news/strategic-hr/oracle-issues-public-clarification-amid-reports-linking-ai-push-to-job-cuts-48277) where we see “In a statement posted on its official X account, Oracle said a widely discussed Nvidia–OpenAI investment proposal had “zero impact” on its financial relationship with OpenAI and insisted it remained “highly confident” in OpenAI’s ability to raise capital and meet its commitments. The clarification followed mounting speculation that Oracle could slash as many as 30,000 jobs to help fund its AI expansion.” I am not taking sides here, but as I see it, at least 5,000 employees could find a job by opening two cloud centres. One in Saudi Arabia and one in the UAE. Techies, Trainers, consultants and that could be an influence of revenue out of those two countries. So when we see “The statement came after a turbulent weekend for companies tied to OpenAI. The Wall Street Journal reported that a proposed $100 billion Nvidia investment in OpenAI had stalled and was never finalised. Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang later confirmed that the arrangement discussed last year was non-binding and did not proceed. Despite Oracle’s attempt to reassure investors, markets reacted negatively. The company’s shares fell 2.79% to $160.06 shortly after the statement was published, highlighting ongoing concern about the scale of Oracle’s financial exposure to the AI build-out.” I have a speculative arbitrary subjective view of Sam Altman (OpenAI) that he is nothing more than a lousy second hand car dealer with too big an ego. And the setting where they are ‘closing down’ the 100 billion dollar deal sounds alarming and it seems like Oracle is left with the mess of something that is in a downward spin and continues falling downward until it splatters with a sickening thump. And when we get to “Oracle’s debt burden has expanded rapidly. The company has added about $58 billion in debt in recent months, largely to finance new data centre campuses in the US, pushing total debt above $100 billion, according to analysts. Since peaking in September 2025, Oracle’s market capitalisation has fallen sharply, erasing hundreds of billions of dollars in value.” All whilst OpenAI couldn’t exist without the Oracle framework and whilst we are given all kinds of complications but there are two settings no one seems to care about. There are plenty of reasons to have a data centre, but AI doesn’t exist yet and Deeper Machine Learning (DML) and Large Language Models (LLM) do exist and they are close to magnificent, the issue is that everyone is going with the AI setting and this AI just cannot do what AI needs to be able to do and whilst we see some excellent ideas, as I see it it doesn’t give the structural settings of an additional 770 data centres are in the making and the resources that are required are rising to the spotlight and people are unhappy with it all. All this is making OpenAI (Sam Altman) rather uneasy and whilst some are shutting down $100 billion deals whilst shouting that the processors aren’t good enough and whilst Google Gemini is outperforming whatever OpenAI has and now the banks are getting jittery and the pressure gets onto the house of Oracle. I can call it that because the Pythia of Delphi gave me permission herself. So now that the bottom of the well is showing the banks go medieval on whatever they can and they try to go out from under their arrangement. Sounds like the setting banks had in 2008, doesn’t it?

But to feed an excellent software firm to the wolves to keep safe is not the good setting. As I see it Oracle will come up from all this, whilst they will stop working with certain banks as I see it. And those banks will cry like little bitches stating that it was just business (a speculative view I am holding). And all whilst I wasn’t stating anything new. This was out in the open for over 2 years. As such the banks and the media have a few thing to explain to the people and they aren’t in the mod for what some will call BS.

Have a great day today, don’t forget to have some Ice Coffee if you are in a 30 degrees plus environment (like me) and feel free to ask the media all kinds of nasty questions. 

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The Grass on the grave

It comes with a setting. The first is the grass is always greener on the other fellows grave. The other setting is that we are on the setting that we are given that one good turn deserves another.

Do I sound a little weird? Yes, that is the case, but it comes with the numbers that we are being smacked with and as we are considering what a brain drain will do to the United States. This setting is one that might need work.

To set the first stage we are given: 

It concerns over 88,000 people who are getting made redundant in these 5 companies alone, I reckon the whole set will be a lot worse soon enough and when you think that they are with their backs against the wall, consider the following.

That is just Saudi Arabia who is in need for thousands of position, as such the Muslims in America might have a decent solution coming their way and the UAE is in a similar state, both nations needing IT staff, which puts the people at Amazon, Microsoft, IBM and Oracle in a decent state. Both places are in a good setting for job placements and those who cannot live in a more strict muslim way might consider the UAE, but that is not me side setting the job offerings in the mix, but most of these forms are doing it to deal with the cost of data centres and that is not a good enough reason for me. The brain drain that it leads to might be more disastrous than anything else the United States could be headed to.

Now both Saudi Arabia and the UAE could post advertisements in the metro sections of the news papers in the places where these job losses occur with an optional website where these people could apply and upload their resume. At that point it becomes the setting for these two nations to see who they could use and who not. At the setting we see with Aramco (Saudi Arabia) and ADNOC (UAE) and that is before they are looking at people for their data centres. I reckon that the braindyain will be very real for the United States. I reckon that the advertisement we see in the Arab News might soon have a much smaller number. 

So that is the small setting that we are facing now and the job cuts that American companies are putting themselves on, might be the solution that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and even other nations might need. So if you are on that redundancy train, here is a little reminder that “Your next big opportunity may be where you are right now” and lets see that solution work for you, because when you are one of 88,000 the setting does not work in your favor, as such I thought of giving some who might need your expertise to set the stage for you and not against you. 

So you all have a great day and I will find a way for others to know what some of you might be going through at the start of 2026.

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Filters

If life is filtering, we are thrown between conspiracy theories and perceived loyalty information. Then there are the setting of media influencer and media de influencing. We are thrown in these 4 battles and the media is part of at least two of them, almost all time. And there is no going back. Yes, this is highly speculative but there is an underlying consideration to that. I am forgoing the first two for now (even as my view might be seen as ‘evidence’ of the first view. 

When we go for the second two there is ‘new’ evidence. I have said over the last 5 years that nothing gets printed by the media unless it has approval of the shareholders, the stake holders and the advertisers. That is how the media tends to work and then there is a new layer that works for some of the media. Flames are published at the bequest of the designers (or the editors) through which the digital dollar elopers work. Flames get people riled up, they respond to flames more eagerly and that results in clicks, hence digital dollars. As such the media has lost their point of neutral view and left us with the view that captures their clicks. This is not only detrimental to the truthful view (aka the news they bring) but it also gives us their wanted view, their ‘click-ability’ as views go. 

So the new ‘evidence’ is seen in a few ways. There is Forbes who gives us “Over the past decade, Oracle stock has emerged as a premier capital-return engine, distributing a remarkable $158 billion to shareholders—the 9th highest total in corporate history. This payout is composed of $35 billion in dividends and a massive $123 billion in share buybacks, representing roughly 31.5% of the company’s current market capitalization. Separately, earnings and revenues beat expectations, but the stock went down? Supported by resilient cash flows from its shift to cloud-based infrastructure and database services, Oracle’s strategy emphasizes enhancing earnings per share through aggressive stock repurchases. While it trails leaders like Apple ($847 billion) and Microsoft ($368 billion) in sheer volume, Oracle’s consistent return of capital highlights a mature balance between funding its high-growth cloud and AI initiatives and rewarding its long-term investor base with reliable financial yields.” Forbes gives us this news (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2026/01/29/how-oracle-stock-returned-158b-to-shareholders/) and could be seen as ‘news’, some will see it that way (including me) but what caused this all? Was it a mere setting that players like the Motley Fool (at https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/01/29/why-oracle-stock-slumped-on-thursday/) who gives us ‘Why Oracle Stock Slumped on Thursday’ with the subtext “There was no company-specific news to explain the enterprise database and artificial intelligence (AI) specialist’s decline. However, a cloud competitor posted results that investors found wanting. Oracle released the results that were greeted with a similar, chilly reception. Revenue of $16.1 billion grew 14% year over year, while adjusted EPS of $2.26 jumped 54%. Its remaining performance obligation (RPO) jumped 438% to $523 billion, highlighting Oracle’s vast backlog.” It could be seen as news and perhaps it merely is. There is however a new power in play and I cannot see the full form because the bulk of the media is hovering away from visibility and they no longer have trustworthiness. I believe that a new power is rising to undo what corporations are doing, I merely believe that it works at the bequest of some governments to either short sell whatever these companies have or represent, or to gain through short selling. I know it is merely speculation but this is my belief. Now there are ‘hairy’ investment settings and they are on Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle to some degree, but there is another force at work here and I cannot see the complete stage, merely shadows and shims of it, the media has become too unreliable and they want to cut back on the value of these three participant (optionally more participants). I know I have spoken out against AI on numerous occasions, but now we get certain parties illuminating the parts the required no illumination and I don’t think it is by accident.

What Gives?
SO, am I the conspiracy theorist, or the perceived loyalty information giver? I could be the second part (the first one too). I almost blindly belief in the good of Oracle, so the second is an option and it is perceived as I do not work for Oracle, as such I am not in the know. Oracle has been a force for good for over 30 years, as such the faith in Oracle is almost blindly, is that a correct setting to take?

I know that Oracle is in the deep with all these data centres, but are then all owned by Oracle? Are certain governmental parties driving the price down so they can cut costs? As per now Major hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) are expected to invest approximately $400 billion in 2026 alone to meet this demand. In the U.S. specifically, nearly 3,000 new data centers are planned or under construction, adding to over 4,000 already operational. 3,000 planned per 2026 as such Oracle stock should be going through the roof (Alpha, Amazon and Microsoft wouldn’t be doing so badly either), but that is not what we are seeing. And I have to wonder why. There are of-course energy issues, but Oracle is providing the technology. So how many data centres are owned by oracle? The image does not compute (as the term goes) and the image is not being given to us clearly by the media and that gives us the two second filters. So isn’t anyone wondering what is in play here? Most will not care either way and for the most neither do I, but in the current political situation where the United States does what it damn well likes regardless of all other voices now gives us a new setting, the transference of powers to a new wielder and neither of them likes the power the current 4 biotech are wielding and they might have gotten away with it if they left Oracle alone, that gave me the lights and some might say they are merely pretty Christmas lights, they are a little out of time, but I am seeing dashboard warning lights and not the good kind. As such is it me (it could be) or is there more to this all?

That is now the question and as such as the weekend is starting for me and Vancouver has to go through today, find your way to coffee because there is never a bad time to have a cup of that.

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