Tag Archives: Saudi Arabia

October 22, 2023 · 19:08

The thin ice

We all know the expression, no skating on thin ice. Yet when you think of it, when was the last time you saw thin ice? We all hear it, but when did you yourself, with your own eyes see a case of thin ice? We tend to think it is a danger avoided, but when no one sees that danger, is it a danger? Don’t get me wrong, I am not doubting that thin ice exists, before ice is thick enough to carry our weights it will be thin ice. A lot of thin ice seeing is assumption. We see ice and we see no one else skating on it, as such we take it for granted that THAT part is thin ice. Hold on to that thought because I am about to give light to two very different articles.

Arab News
The first was Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2395561/business-economy) where we see ‘Saudi banks’ residential loans surge in August as apartments gain prominence’. This article seems nice, but when you read it we are given two parts. The first one is “Mortgage lending to houses, apartments and lands rose to SR7.14 billion in August from SR5.43 billion in July” This is a 30% rise in a month and that is huge. Now there are other factors on play like trends. How was that last year versus this year and a few other things, but 30% matters. In addition we are given “The increase in apartment financing by Saudi banks compared to house financing is due to the increase in prices of houses and private villas compared to the prices of apartments, which has made villas and houses unaffordable to average-income individuals,” and this comes from Talat Zaki Hafiz, an economist and financial analyst. There is the added “Notably, financing of houses still dominates Saudi banks’ new residential mortgage landscape, constituting a 70 percent share in August. While apartments comprised 25 percent of the pie, land financing held the remaining 5 percent.” It seems that the Saudi banks have things well in hand. We can also infer that people are in a better state, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is in a better state and the people are setting their lives accordingly. Now, this is speculative, but if the economy was really bad real estate would not skyrocket by 30%, so something is going right there. 

The Guardian
The guardian gives us a very different story in the UK (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/21/mortgage-debts-and-bust-firms-put-uk-banks-profits-under-pressure) there we are given ‘Mortgage debts and bust firms put UK banks’ profits under pressure’. Now we can argue that the UK has twice the amount of people and that is true, yet as I personally see it, banking is banking. If a bank has a certain margin, having twice that margin implies that bank is twice as rich. Now, I get it, it is not that simple, but read me out.

We are given “Bosses watched in horror as a mini-banking crash led to the collapse of a string of US lenders including Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and later Switzerland’s largest lender, Credit Suisse.” Here we have a problem, what I speculated all along and I saw one part revealed in April was “SVB had few traditional banking uses for the cash that piled up, it instead invested $91 billion in Treasury bonds and U.S. government agency mortgage-backed securities between 2020 and 2021. This brought SVB’s investments to roughly half its total assets.” You see, this was stupid greed and I warned in advance of it, more than once actually and the Guardian does not mention treasury bonds once, there is a whole engine spinning news and misdirecting news all over the media. The speculative setting is that owners of US treasury bonds will auto renew or lose a lot of money, so what would you do if you were the idiot relying on a 2% payday of $91,000,000,000? That amounts to a $1.87 billion payday. I would do the same thing, but these banks used their clients money to hedge that bet and the US government was eager to cater to that level of greed. I reckon that this is why Janet Yellen kept a close eye on this. In addition, I wonder how deep Credit Suisse was involved. 

Yet the setting is housing and “By July, the former Ukip leader Nigel Farage went to war with NatWest over plans to close his accounts at its private bank, Coutts.” Really? One account has that much impact? You see ‘Coutts bank boss quits in row over Nigel Farage’s canceled account’ some might see this as a joke, but for Peter Flavel the boss in question it is not a joke. There is something wrong with banking and banks all over the west. Don’t ask me what, but all these events are part of a larger problem, a problem that involves stake holders blending the message for banks and as I personally see it, the Guardian has been catering to these stake holders. It is highly speculative but even as this truth is given “Speaking to broadcasters Thursday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it “wasn’t right for people to be deprived of basic services like banking because of their views.” I think it wasn’t the views (alone). I reckon that some views opposing the current need is a larger setting and people like Farage could be able to spot that in the documentation handed to them, moreover certain banks have been skating on the thin ice for too long and at some point someone will sink through the ice. That is the danger of the thin ice. For the longest time the thin ice was an urban myth at best, because we never aw cases. But the British banks are in a spot of bother and people like Nigel Farage would shine a big light on that problem, better to get rid of these people and when banks do that, when banks do that to politically A-listers, how much trouble are they really in. You see in March 12th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/12/i-honestly-dont-get-it/) I raised a few questions regarding bonds and the eager beavers in the media never looked at that part, not the Times, not the Guardian, not any respectable newspaper as I personally see it. So why not? What trouble is America trying to pass over thin ice? What are we not told and isn’t that the duty of banks to inform their customers? I reckon that Saudi Banks are doing a lot better because they do not cater to anything else but their goals and the goals of THEIR customers. I could be wrong, but considering that we are left in the dark for over 6 months, all whilst Saudi banks are doing 30% better in a month implies something. It implies that they are doing something right.

 Enjoy the last day of the weekend, Monday is soon here, here it will arrive in less than 300 minutes.

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October 20, 2023 · 00:32

The gig is partially up

Yes, this happens. Even to me and Microsoft apparently figured part out, part I had hoped to include in the sale of my IP, IP which might now be made public domain. I refuse to let Microsoft walk away with it all. You see, I made the second (or third mention) in ‘Ring around the currency’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/12/25/ring-around-the-currency/) on Christmas day 2022, almost a year ago. I had seen how gaming went and I made some calculations. Between 1985 and 1999 the systems Atari 800, Atari ST, Commodore 64 and Commodore Amiga had a little over 10,000 games. I reckoned that if you took the list sorted by rating and you take the top 10% you end up with 1,000 games. Now we get that some still have IP protection. I reckoned that if we set that marker to 50% (really high) we still end up with 500 games, a lot more than Amazon or Google had. The others are fair game, no IP protection and these games could easily be transformed for cloud gaming. Going from 64KB to 1MB-15MB is still a good gig and these games were really fun and addictive. A system with 500 games (merely one of three pillars). That is what the seemingly bright people at Amazon missed and I was laughing most of the year, knowing that my giggles were temporary at best. It was one part that ensured 50,000,000 consoles and alas Kingdom Holding (with Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud) were not taking the bait for billions in revenue. Neither was the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia who was driven to eSports. But I thought ahead of the pack. You see eSports people get there by training and the younger they are the better they become and these games set up my and the next generation, so the new generation could do worse than train on these games. Still that was not my focus, it was a focus on fun. The fun I had through decades of joyful gaming. Not hopping like a kangaroo in FPS games. I also saw the option to reengineer some games (like Defender of the Crown) to be a little more realistic and more Arabic driven, a combination of that game with a focus of the 1st Crusades. Show the current generation what Islamic life in 1095-1291 achieved. And that was not all, many games were up for grabs, rejected and forgotten. As such the creation of a large coffer of games would propel any console and that was the setting I set out to do, but it was only one of three pillars. I tend to make the other two pillars public domain soon enough especially as my retirement in Toronto is now no longer a reality. 

There were several other games that required remastering in the new setting. There was Knight Games on the CBM64, and setting this with a Saracen style might appeal to a lot of Arabic gamers. The nice part was that I had played most of those games and I would be able to recall plenty of details and plenty of gaming sides, even improve on some of them. A setting that was never considered in those days. 

All this came to the surface when I saw ‘Phil Spencer Teases the Revival of Older Microsoft Franchises’. It came with ““With Game Pass, we have the ability to maybe pick a couple of franchises every year and almost do a ‘revisited’,” Spencer explained. Although he clarified that it was not an official branding term, he expressed the potential to recognise the significance of these games in gaming history and make them available through Game Pass.”

Yes, that was the setting that gave me pause to think. Spencer does not think in small settings and as I make this now public domain others will come and see what they can have. You see Microsoft has committed 69 billion, as such making sure that all these games get multiple contenders all vying for a piece of the pie makes the slice for Microsoft smaller and that is not the only thing they will face. So all who read this, if you develop games, see what old games you could purchase, get the IP for or register the new gaming IP. It will be the first disappointment for Microsoft. They will have to share the pie with many others. The other side is that these people could get a slice of the game through the new Tencent Technology handheld. Another mess they never banked on. I had hoped to keep ahead of the curve, but it seems that this is no longer an option. The only thing left is to make these steps as expensive as possible for Microsoft. They invested to get a mile, so if I can make the setting so that they merely get a furlong it will be a good day for me, or at least a better day than it was this morning. So here you see it, this is what Amazon and Google missed. Well, it was one of three parts they missed and I wonder if someone over there will wake up at some point. 

Enjoy the day, I will enter Friday being decently grumpy today.

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October 15, 2023 · 20:58

Is it that bad?

That was the first question that came to mind. I was ‘reading’ Mirage News (at https://www.miragenews.com/blinken-meets-with-uae-president-sheikh-mohammed-1103623/) where we see ‘Blinken Meets with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed’. It is there where we are given “Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met today with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi to discuss the terrorist attacks on Israel. The Secretary expressed appreciation for the UAE’s clear condemnation of Hamas’ heinous attacks on Israeli civilians and continued diplomatic engagement to prevent the spread of conflict”. Now, from my personal point of view (and an utter inexperience) of dealing with royalty, the fact that the nation is thousands of miles away (roughly 11,325,624 cm) I would rely on that invention by Alexander Graham Bell, or its  mobile equivalent. This was about something else. If you use the Gaza events to break the ice, you can be decently certain that the real situation is a dire one. 

It is anyones guess what the real deal is. BRICS is a decent thought, as they are gaining a lot of steam, all whilst dumping USA bonds. The second one is technology advancement. The fact that China now has the upper hand in the UAE (and Saudi Arabia) for construction projects, for 5G deployment projects and with defence spendings. These three add up to hundreds of billions of dollars and the USA is no longer the party in the ‘A’ column. And the part of desperation? This is seen with “commitment to building a more integrated, secure, and prosperous region, and reaffirmed the importance of the strategic partnership between the United States and the United Arab Emirates”. As such my question becomes show me five examples where the United States has set a stage of integration with the UAE in the last 5 years? Give me also 5 examples where the United States has made the UAE more secure? That is merely two examples out of a decent bag filled of examples. The United States has dropped the ball several times all over the Middle East and now that the countdown to collapse has started the United States is eager to clamp onto any connection so that they can delay the last part of the countdown. 

I get it, plenty of people doubt me, call me crazy or call me a loon (the last part might be true). Yet the larger stage in all this is that the US is reaching out to whomever they can. Last month it was with India, China in June and Brazil in march. The US is seeking out the BRICS members and trying to get a hand-up in their collapsing economy. When we realise that “as of August 2023, the United States government has a monthly interest rate of 2.92 percent on its debt” and when you realise that this amounts to well over 900 billion dollars a month all whilst The U.S. government has collected $3.97 trillion in fiscal year 2023. We get the numbers. When we see the interest as the mark, we see that 100% of taxation merely covers 22% of the interest they have accrued. I saw this moment in 2017, the setting was a mere exercise of an abacus and it was a finite moment. This is the consequence of inactions and political haymaking all whilst these politicians never had a hoe to collect the hay. An exercise in prototyping and conjecture is merely a training exercise, but it was sold as a product, just like these software developers in the 90’s. Over 99% of those did not survive their presentations. Now we are mere inches away from seeing it happen to a government. China played the long game, China wins. It is simple mathematics and they have relied on it for almost 900 years. Most nations (especially in the EU) diid not follow that example for almost 400 years. 

So the question ‘Is it that bad’ is a serious one and I am not the best source of answer here, but the media is not informing you on how serious matters are either, are they?

Enjoy the Sunday that is almost over for me and starting in the very very west (Vancouver).

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October 11, 2023 · 03:55

The number is three

Weirdly enough, my mind came up with something that was out there and for some reason it matters. The rhyme goes like “They touch, they break, they steal. No one here is free. Here they come, they come for three, unless you stop the melody.” You see, there is a second meaning to steal, it can also mean ‘move somewhere quietly’, we forget that sometimes, we all do. And with this I saw a few articles. 

The first step
The first article is seen (at https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/oct/05/australia-fifa-world-cup-2034-bid-saudi-arabia-challenge) where we hear ‘Australia given 25-day deadline to challenge Saudi Arabia’s 2034 World Cup bid’. It is here that we see “Football Australia, state and federal governments and potential Asian co-hosts have been given 25 days by Fifa to decide whether they will bid for the 2034 men’s World Cup”. Other articles give us that Australia is pissed.  The why part is out there and it is not asked. Consider that I wrote some time ago regarding “Department of Jobs, Skills, Industry and Regions secretary Tim Ada told the inquiry that the event’s costs had nearly doubled from $2.6 billion in March 2022 to $4.5 billion a year later.” As such, they already fumbled the ball once, so now they want to give that another try, now with FIFA? And why is 2034 so important? We have 2026 (USA, Canada, Mexico) and in 2030 we get that on October 4th 2023 it was announced that Spain, Portugal and Morocco would host the majority of the 2030 FIFA World Cup in an unanimous decision from the FIFA Council, with one “celebratory game” each being held in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay. The game is evolving, it is too big for one place, so who would be able to afford to host the games? The general costs were in 2014 (Brazil) $19.7 billion, in 2018 (Russia) $16 billion, and 2022 (Qatar) had a $229 billion cost message. We can agree that the last one was outlandishly big, but a country that could not fork over $5,000,000,000 for the Commonwealth Games will share well over triple that with New Zealand? What is wrong with people? I am not debating that this event is good for a nation who hosts this, but Australia and a few other places are not in a financial sound place. Saudi Arabia is one of the few nations who have that kind of money available. The 2030 innovations that the kingdom is showing could (or should) show the world that Saudi Arabia has what it needs to make it work. 

We are all in the need for games, but these games (FIFA, Commonwealth Games, Olympics) are slowly pricing themselves out of a global market and no one is asking serious questions here. I get why the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia wants this and lets be clear, they can afford it. Australia? I am not certain, yet the errors made last year and the triple costs now make me wonder if some politicians have any idea the amount of money that they are spending. 

The second step
The second step is not that clear, we are given (at https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/hamas-strike-israel-force-market-190723900.html) ‘Hamas’ strike on Israel will force the market to ‘beg’ Saudi Arabia to pump out more oil, famed crude trader says’, so when the market begs. How sturdy are they? The fact that this event is used as an excuse to beg for more oil. How shoddy as their position to begin with? The USA and EU are not reliant on either Hamas or Israel for oil and their oil needs are not on the USA or EU. OK, perhaps Israel might benefit, but Gaza does not. So when I see “the militant group’s raid will disrupt longer-term supplies, with Riyadh unlikely to start pumping out more crude until Brent hits $110 a barrel.” I wonder who believes that setting. I get that oil prices will increase that was already a given, but that is mostly due to the fact that OPEC has decided to decrease outputs. It was the hard lesson the USA had to learn from being politically utterly stupid. The price it had in June 2022 will be returned to and most likely get surpassed, neither of the two Gaza players had a hand in that. Yes, these tanks will require fuel, but that would be on Israel. 

The third step
The last step comes from Business News Australia. The article (at https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/blog/trademark-group-connects-aussie-businesses-to-saudi-boom) gives us ‘“Like Dubai 20 years ago”: Trademark Group connects Aussie businesses to Saudi boom’, we get the notion and the act to get close to any business boom that can be ‘exploited’. As such we are given “Australian businesses that missed out on the Dubai growth story of the past 20 years have been urged to take a closer look at Saudi Arabia, a country that Trademark Group founder and CEO Sam Jamsheedi describes as the sleeping giant of the Gulf region.” Yes, I agree. But I saw that essential setting over two years ago and I wrote about that in this blog on numerous occasions. As such it is nice that Sam Jamsheedi woke up to the notion two years late. My issue with the article is not the notion. It is also accepted that we see “Each industry that the Saudis are trying to develop provides massive opportunities for Australia businesses to capitalise on – from construction and agriculture to food, beverage and even sport.” In this I agree, yet my thoughts are where the article failed. You see the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a Muslim nation, it largely acts and reacts as the Quran inspires them. Yet the article does not even once mention ‘Islam’ or ‘Muslim’ settings. That was my first stage when I was testing my IP. Yet Muslim rules are all over Saudi Arabia, they are in advertising which is a first hurdle ANY business needs to overcome. They need to test that their advertising adheres to those rules. The article makes no mention there either. It reads like a wishful thinking article, all whilst basic needs are not mentioned. It reads to me that these are ‘small’ hurdles that they will overcome in due time. That is an entirely wrong setting to take. 

We see three settings, They touch (oil), they break (FIFA), they sneak (Business) and they all want a piece from Saudi Arabia. Yes, the second one is flimsy, but when we see the cost part, I am almost clueless that Australia is setting it all up. It is my speculative view that with Qatar players like Coca Cola missed out on too much and now they are anxious and eager to make sure that FIFA is set in a place where their interests are larger like in Australia. All at the same time we see a setting of 5G and a few other settings where Australia is not in the best place and I feel 99% certain that the drain on 5G will be enormous in 2034 and I am not entirely certain that Australia will be ready at that point. They politicised too much, which made them massively non acting, merely talking loud. As such, when we were given in May 2023 the setting of New guidelines, we were also given “These renewed warnings come amid the Australian government’s plan to strengthen national security and make Australia one of the most secure countries in the world by 2030” that sounds nice, but the fact that the nation is lacking security settings for 8 years is flimsy to say the least. But no one is looking at that, are they? I still get 4G mentions all over Sydney today, as such I fail to see that they are ready by the time it matters and it mattered yesterday. We are presented several issues and no one is looking at the picture we should be seeing. As I personally see it “unless you stop the melody” refers to presentations given and these presentations are lacking on several levels. Feel free to disagree, but when you look behind the presentations you need to see a solid setting, solid numbers and solid facts. We aren’t given those. Why not?

Enjoy the final part of the first half of the week.

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October 9, 2023 · 07:47

When it pours

When it pours, an umbrella seems pointless. Yes, that was not the stage you imagined, was it. When it rains we rely on an umbrella to keep us dry, when it pours a little less so. You see pouring rain tends to come with strong winds, and most umbrella’s are not designed to deal with both. 

So when I see ‘Israel formally declares war, approves ‘significant’ steps to retaliate for Hamas attack’ (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-gaza-hamas-hezbollah-1.6990466) I wonder what else is in play. I see the speculations by the media. ‘It’s a Russian Ploy’, ‘It’s an anti Saudi-Israel ploy’. Now, both are possible, both are also likely but consider that some sources give us that 3,500 rockets have been fired. This was an event that was planned. This was not some knee jerk event. Consider where you can store 3500 rockets, consider that Mossad is trying to monitor Gaza 24:7. These elements combined give us the need for crunching data and intelligence. So whilst the CBC gives us “The Israeli government formally declared war Sunday and gave the green light for “significant military steps” to retaliate against Hamas for its surprise attack from the Gaza Strip a day earlier, as the total death toll on both sides surpassed 1,100 and thousands have been wounded.” No one is sitting down to consider that this happened leaving Mossad doing the penguin with their pants on their ankles. And we can understand that Israel formally declared war. Yet, the time-line does not match up. Yes, we see that Hamas feels threatened by the normalisation of ties between the state of Israel and the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. In equal measure there is a need for Russia to get focus away from them (as they get bitch slapped by Paddington bear). So both speculations have merit on the greater scheme of things and perhaps both are in play. 

I was there in 1982, I saw the mess there was and I feel tired that this shit is still going on. It feels like my life as part of the UNSC was a waste of time. It doesn’t make me a better source of intelligence, I merely see more than what the media gives us. It also makes me wonder when stress points are added to Israel, Eilat and Beer Sheva are Israeli hubs. When the rockets start focussing on these two points the game will alter, and I tactically speaking these two places are not out of reach. If there is anything to say about Hamas is that they tend to be creative. If they have the ability to hide and shoot 3500 missiles, 400 drones in two droves on these two pressure points is not unimaginable. Especially if Russia is part of that equation. I reckon that they could see that handing 400 drones to Hamas will be a stronger message than keeping them aimed at Ukrainian targets. In all this there is one clear part. My view is pure speculation, I have no data supporting my view. Yet I feel that merely focussing on missiles is not a good idea for Israel. Hamas knows that there will be retaliations. So whatever comes next, it will be their goal to make it hurt. It seems strange, but after 42 years, I see now that this will never end in my lifetime and if I had kids, they would not see the end of this either. It is almost a version of Harry Potter, one cannot live whilst the other is still alive. It is not positive, but it is what it is. In 1982 I had the dastardly hope that I was part of setting a stage that would end hostilities. I now know that it was foolish to think that I had any positive impact there. 

We all learn and we all learn at our own speed. No matter how we see this, consider that this coming week will give a better view on how things around the west bank will escalate.

Try to enjoy the week that is on the horizon for those west of India.

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October 2, 2023 · 04:43

An altering stage

This is a setting we all see, we all accept. We see any stage and we see it changes as conditions are dealt with. The Shutdown is as I expected averted in the last minute. I expected it would, but I also expect that this might go wrong in the future and the next shutdown is a mere 45 days away and US businesses are setting this new marker as the disaster moment. That is the new quarter setting, a setting that is a mere 45 days away now, but what happens when this becomes a monthly thing? And that is not nearly the end of it. You see CNN and others reported on how Rep. Jamaal Bowman pulled the fire alarm a mere minutes before that vote. Children will be children and what do you do with stupid children? Yes, you make them representatives of Congress, that is how it goes. He is seemingly hiding behind ‘it was an accident’ just like every other 12 year old who played ding dong ditch with a fire alarm. This is merely the stage, the larger stage is more serious. 

The first one is the IMF (at https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/09/28/cf-saudi-arabias-economy-grows-as-it-diversifies) who reports ‘Saudi Arabia’s Economy Grows as it Diversifies’. It is a summary and you should read it. It shows several elements that are taking the world by storm. It is not “As shown in the latest IMF annual review of the country’s economy, progress has been most notably reflected in non-oil growth, which has accelerated since 2021, averaging 4.8 percent in 2022. Despite lower overall growth reflecting additional oil production cuts, non-oil growth will remain close to 5 percent in 2023, spurred by strong domestic demand.” We get the goods here, but it is “The economy’s non-oil growth has been spurred by strong domestic demand, particularly private non-oil investment. Sustaining this performance requires pursuing sound macroeconomic policies and maintaining the reform momentum, irrespective of developments in oil markets.” Even if the stage is not revealed, when combined with other views we see that ‘strong domestic demand’ is merely one string from the harp of economy, the harp of Saudi economy. What matters is that larger streams involving defence, technology, construction, tourism and services are ALL moving towards Chinese shores. We see some of it now, but that list is rapidly expanding and the next US vote is 45 days away with them having to brood on a loss of billions and it will be a lot more than 1 billion. 

The second article comes from Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2382701). I am not seeing anything new, but the fact that we see the report on this implies that US and EU governing bodies are now seeing the losses that they are being confronted with. In the first Saudi Arabia has set the lofty goal of increasing the tourism target from 100 million to 150 million of tourists a year by 2030. I think they can get there, but as I wrote last week that implies that these 150 million will not be going to the US or EU. So did you do the math on that loss? Saudi Arabia was until recent not really a blip on anyones radar and now they are becoming a power player. And this is not just China, The EU has 44 million Muslims a fair size of this would be considering Saudi Arabia as a tourist destination soon enough and even as the US only has about 4 million Muslims, these two are now seriously looking at what kind of a vacation Saudi Arabia could offer. I think it could grow even further. As a growing global population wants to really learn about Islam, we see that the Churches are now going more and more deserted. You can fool all of the people som of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time and the western world is in stage three, all whilst stage two is waking up on the notion that the churches have been a scam (as some people see them) yet these people are now seeking faith. Faith they feel the churches can no longer deliver as these people feel conned. Now Saudi Arabia has a stage where they can openly and clearly introduce Islam to a people who feel empty because faith deserted them, it is now seen as a betrayal and the churches cannot address the betrayal that they instigated since November 18, 1095 (Council of Clermont, First Crusade). Over 900 years and that shindig is up. So Saudi Arabia stands to increase its Muslim population, they increase tourism and at the same time they decrease the revenue streams to the EU and US. Both China and Russia will see this as a win, as does the BRICS community. IS my view correct? Correct is not the issue, this is clearly happening, but to what degree is anyones guess. I felt betrayed by my Catholic Church going back since slightly before 2015 when the movie Spotlight showed the world that something was very very wrong. We have been conned by hypocrites and charlatans and many feel too betrayed to give the church even one option to redeem itself. This tom foolery had been going on for over 900 years. 

And when you consider the Arab News giving you “By focusing on shared opportunities for growth and prosperity, the crown prince shuns hardened religious ideology that offers no prospects for the region or the international community at large. This leads him to navigate uncharted territory and negotiate closer ties with Iran and Israel alike. As he has pointed out, a Saudi normalisation agreement with Israel, if it came to pass, would be “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War.”” It is seemingly correct (there are a few nicks to that setting), but the larger stage becomes more than ‘since the end of the cold war’. You see, the US was a power-player since the end of WW1 and that too is about to end. All the friends the USA used to have are now seeking new shores to feed their greed and they will bend over backwards to get their slice of cake and in the process will have to openly desert the US. Even Americans are now seeking ‘pro-Russian’ shores to ‘feel’ safe, but that is not the way it goes and those people will soon have no one to turn to. A similar setting is to be seen in the EU, although there are other issues in play too. Slovakia turning pro-Russian is merely one stage, one of many stages and that will erupt in many places. I expect that the Paris Olympics will show a few sides evolving there and as this evolves Saudi Arabia will be there to be the new power (together with China). You see, what some are missing is that places like Alipay+ is now partnered with the Saudi Tourism Authority. You think it is simple, but it is not. No matter how we see Alipay as part of the Alibaba group. It sets the stage where it is the partnered player with all the tourism in Saudi Arabia. It overtook PayPal in 2013, it now has over 55% as a pay provider for China and it is about to become a serious contender for all slices of the VISA and Mastercard processing pie. Within 10 years they got to there and the BRICS group will allow it to grow a lot further. And in all this we see another field that was until 5 years ago a field that belonged to the USA. Now we see more and more areas where the USA corporations are degrading to a mere third world nation and Saudi Arabia is in the centre of more and more of these stages. China is making a clean sweep of a lot of this and people still believe that I was kidding when I stated in 2019 that this pariah BS will have larger impacts. We are now seeing these plays in place and we see how the world stage is changing and for the USA and the EU not for the better. Oh and before you think this is temporary, consider the Brooklyn floods. It will take months for the humidity to settle down and the heating bills with decreased oil will take its toll there too. They say ‘It never rains when it pours’ and now we see the impact in several income streams whilst service streams are negatively impacted. All at the same time. But no matter the next shutdown is dues around 16 November 2023, a week before thanksgiving in the USA. So what will the Turkey’s do at that point to survive? Play ding dong ditch with a fire alarm?

Enjoy the upcoming week.

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September 27, 2023 · 23:54

As the belt tightens

We have seen the expression, but did we consider the impact against the long game? Today two articles passed me by. The first one comes from Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2380901/saudi-arabia) where we see ‘Saudi Arabia granted China’s Approved Destination Status’ with the added “Saudi Arabia was officially granted Approved Destination Status by China on Tuesday, allowing Chinese citizens to travel to the Kingdom on group tours, the Saudi Press Agency reported.” You might think ‘So what?’ and that is fine. Yet consider that Chinese tourists “made 155 million outbound trips, and spent a cumulative $245 billion on outbound tourism”, now this is on their global trips. Yet 5 years ago Saudi Arabia was not even a blip on the tourism radar. So, now we see the setting where it might start at a mere 10%, but this could grow a lot further. Consider that tourism suffers a $24,500,000,000 reduced income. That puts several players in hot water. Some are still recuperating from the Covid issue. Some will drown. Then we get the impact of lessened tourism all over Europe. I reckon that London will have no trouble, as does Paris. Yet several locations will feel that impact, as will some places in the US and in light of the BRICS setting, certain group travel organisations in China will undoubtedly promote Saudi Arabia as the destination to go to in 2024 and 2025. I reckon (pure speculation) that the rest of the world will lose at least 20% in the first two years and if you read up on some of the media, that is not good news. The second article comes from design boom (at https://www.designboom.com/architecture/marriott-first-w-hotel-saudi-arabia-neom-trojena-09-26-2023/). There we see ‘Marriott’s first W hotel in Saudi Arabia to debut within NEOM trojena’s futuristic ski resort’ that implies that larger players see this as the new tourist place and they want in. So consider that this happens 5 years in advance. The setting gives us the idea that this will not be a small hotel, or a simple cheap one. Saudi Arabia is setting its goals on being the hub for a lot of places and reasons and now tourism is added to their arsenal. You still think I was wrong all those years? As things go, when this gets off the ground, we see a new setting where Saudi Arabia is a possible contender for the Winter Olympics in 2040, I do not think they will have won over enough hearts for 2036, but 2040 is a decent time when the winter olympics could come to Saudi Arabia. The one place where the Winter Olympics would never have gotten to is now the place where it might end. As such how much more revenue is lost by all others? The long play is seemingly panning out perfectly for Saudi Arabia. 

Could I be wrong?
Of course I could, but consider the players vying to get in there, consider the timeline that Saudi Arabia so far has maintained and consider the losses that the US and the EU have had in the last two years alone and the losses they stand to get slapped with over the next three years. When you add it all up it implies that the EU and US will have to tighten the belt by a lot merely to get by and that is before you realise that the US will have budget problems nearly every year for the next 5 years, from that point it will continue on a non-stop trip from bad to worse year after year. We have been given the following quote for some time now “The kingdom’s Vision 2030 goals include enhancing the Saudi private sector to create a vibrant society, establishing a thriving economy via diversification, and investing in ways to position Saudi Arabia for global trade and competition.” And that is exactly what is happening in many fields including tourism. Before you listen to the other people making claims that it is a small hiccup at best. Consider your OWN position. How many holidays have you had? How many trips could you afford? For a lot of us once a year is as good as it gets and that is the same for China, as such a large group will sign up for a Saudi Trip, of that I have no doubt and in that stage as billions go towards Saudi Arabia, they will not go to either Europe or America. I reckon that the moment Saudi Arabia starts its own version of Las Vegas the tourism pain will set in in America and the revenue streams go down even furthers. And that is before you consider that there is every chance that  China will offer a group setting for the Saudi options and add 1-2 days in Dubai as well. I reckon that over the next 3 years that belt will tighten more and more and it will end plenty of businesses all over the US and Europe. I reckon that Australia will feel that pinch too. We are given “Chinese tourists spent $12.4 billion while in Australia. 677,000 visitors came to Australia for holiday purposes.” It might be a mere 10%, but that already means that Australia will miss out on well over a billion in revenue. So how many in places like Sydney will feel the pinch then? Sydney might be decently safe, but a speculated loss of 10% (if it is that small) will impact Australian lives all over the place.

Enjoy the day and consider where you were going next year for the holidays. 

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September 26, 2023 · 05:37

The confused mindset

We all have that at times and I am no different. I have had a few ideas and they were merely that, ideas. An idea for Kruger Products to increase their offset by 10% (or more), which sounds ludicrous, I know and it is not because Kleenex bailed out of Canada. It was one thought that painted over another and then a third thought came into play and as such the idea was born. I still think it could work, but not sure how to push it through. Lets be clear, I do not need to push it through, I am on the other side of the planet. Then the idea came for a mobile case addition. Not merely a new mobile case, there are 13 in a dozen, but an addition to every case, all in light of stupid people who lose their mobile phones on planes, in rollercoasters and that list goes on a bit. So, when you consider that the new iPhone 15 PRO MAX is well over $2K, the idea has merit. How long until you no longer have it insured. How long until the insurance companies use these videos to show you do not care for your product like a good father (yes, that is an expression used for over 30 years) and as such nullify your insurance and you will not get back the insurance premium already paid. All these thoughts invaded my mindset. All whilst other things pre-occupy it.

You see, the looming US shutdown and the FTX case involving Bankman-Fried (aka Bankman-Fired) is merely showing me how the media is set to fear mongering, involving as many as they can for the digital dollar and that list goes on. Yet one source, the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46927916) gives us beside ‘What happens in a US government shutdown?’, whatever is about to come. Yet I think that this is fear mongering and a last minute solution will be found, but certain people on the republican side will want their pound of meat as well as their 15 minute of camera time. Yet the chance of this going wrong will increase with every iteration of this circus. I mentioned it before. It will not be long until it actually happens. To keep the fear alive and there is supporting evidence (straight from the BBC). You see, we are given “Congress is also not affected – its members are exempt and, in any case, its funding bill has already been approved. The US Department of Justice is among those affected – with many lawyers and judges not working during a shutdown. Others are working without pay.” With the added ““Essential services” – mostly related to public safety – continue to operate, with workers being required to show up without pay.” So, isn’t that called slave labour? And the republicans are steering for this? I am not entirely unsympathetic as the US debt keeps on growing, but this is a dangerous step. The second danger is “A right-wing faction in the House is demanding deep cuts and wants to stop further funding of the war in Ukraine” A republican side that is so driven with greed that they will support Russia in the process, that must be the most un-American part I ever beheld. Yet my mind also thinks that if the world goes this without the US, then the world must ALSO make the US pay. As such it needs to remove import of American products, it needs to shun American services and there are options. It fuels certain EU options (EVROC anyone?) And that is merely one of many. The media is so driven not to look into the US corporations that are STILL doing business in Russia and that list also goes on. There needs to be a price for everything and America will have to pay its pound of beef as well. Greed comes with a price and that price is always higher than one thinks. 

To illustrate one small part, the last one in 2019 “The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that it reduced economic output by about $11bn, including $3bn that it never regained.” Over 36 days that much, never regained. That is the loss people face in a time when they cannot afford anything. So how much longer until the EU nations seek an audience with President Xi? Do not think that this cannot happen, BRICS has grown massively and now that Saudi Arabia is part of that, the EU and the US will face tougher times. The candyman is gone, he has vacated the building and is now part of the Asian collective and that sits well with China, the moment several European nations join that part, America is truly done for. No fear mongering, merely a simple fact that the media is not reporting on, because its stakeholders will not allow that and that is the linked danger. You think the last $3,000,000,000 is much? China now has lucrative construction contracts and lucrative service contracts that span the 5 year horizon (as I personally see it) to well beyond $75 billion, funds that the US can no longer appeal to and that list grows shorter every year. Saudi Arabia and the UAE represent a massive amount of revenue and it is all going towards China and BRICS members. So the idea that the EU members will want to appeal to President Xi is growing larger by the day and that is all linked to the game that Republicans are playing with. A compact combination of greed, stupidity and ego. Winning big in Vegas has better chances than the game we see now and the media is keeping you all in the dark.

The media stakeholders are that powerful now and it is all for the larger good, but the good for who? A few hours ago I saw ‘BRICS Countries Dump $123 Billion in U.S. Treasuries in 2023’ (source: Watcher Guru). First of all this is unverified news and I only saw one source, but if this is REAL news and the other media is shunning this fact, we see two parts. The first is that the media is losing credibility fast, the second is that the US is facing more and more hardship. That being said, I have no idea how reliable Watcher Guru is, so be careful what you take for gospel without decent verification. I am not accepting the news, but the setting would be what any tactical party (especially BRICS) would do to make things hard for America and BRICS includes Russia AND China, so make from this what you want, yet that too relates to the Republicans wanting to side with Russia AGAINST Ukraine, as such that step makes less and less sense with every hour I see news articles pass by. Perhaps we should call them the Republittlecans? 

No matter how you slice these events, the Anti-China acts buy the US is driving the EU members into the arms of China, an outcome they apparently did not see coming. If they did these steps seem extraordinary stupid to me. Yet my mind is merely turning trying to create more ideas as I go along with whatever silly events is happening around the corner.

The mindset can get confused, also the mindset of any focussed person. Confusion sets in when the data that it registers (reads) becomes conflicting on several levels and as I personally see it the involved stakeholders are creating more confusion in the process of hiding news others do not want you to see. You might think the Watcher Guru is such news and I would doubt it too as it is merely one source, but this is nowhere near the first time and other news has been hidden or trivialised for well over a decade now and the people are starting to catch on all over the world they are catching on that the media has lost credibility all over the place.

Enjoy the day, the week is really on route now.

 

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September 22, 2023 · 23:58

A delusion within a delusion

A few things happened today that gave pause for thoughts. I believe it that it reinforces the ideas I had from the very start. Some (especially Microsoft sycophants) will state that it is exactly the evidence making me delusional. I will let you decide.

To state this I will take some detours. The setting I always had was that by the time phase one was completed, 50 million subscribers would be added. A few parts support that media, yet I will not mention them here due to some sycophants. What you need to know is how I got there.

So there is the setting that three and three and three make nine. I state that it could be 729. So how did I get here. Well, (3×3)3 is the quick route. But that would be regarded by most as flim flam numerology. So how did I get there?  

Consider two persons, person A and person B. They both have 4 million followers. You would think that you get to 8 million which makes sense, but you would be wrong. Consider these two persons. They both have interests and for the simplicity we will take random groups. Fashion, Books, Technology and Art. In these classifications they can attract each 2 people. As such the equation now becomes 2+2+2+2 times 8 million. We now have 64 million. There will be overlap, yet the more diverse these groups are, the lesser the overlap. It is a little bit like anti clustering. New clusters that are similar but not alike. This (sort of) relates to Späth, H.: Cluster dissection and analysis: theory (1986). Another person who talked about this was Iliya Valev (around 1998). 

Now I have to make a side jump. It is an old setting for a tri-sided dagger, or a Jagdkommando knife. The response on it is “The tri-dagger’s problems all begin with that godforsaken twist. It lacks a proper cutting edge, and it’s wide shape means that, as a slashing weapon, this thing is about one step up from paper cuts”, so how does this connect? Well, I have always ben a fan of a tri sided blade. It is forbidden as an actual weapon, but in my view I see it as something with three sides. Presentation, Perception and Principle. They support and reinforce one another. Perception is reinforced by Principle and Presentation, Presentation by Perception and Principle and Principle gets support from Perception and Presentation. No matter how you wield it. We see the opposition we read earlier, but we see it as a knife. You need to realise that the origins of the stiletto was invented in the 15th century to be an anti-armour knife. Not meant to slice but to stab and it went straight through leather and most metal armour. The ‘recipient’ basically bled to death on the spot. Now, hindered by its own armour it could not get any bandage applied before he bled to death. The jagdkommando knife is similar, the wound becomes to hard to heal or apply first aid, which was why it was forbidden. But the application of it is still valid. It was meant to kill with certainty, plain and simple.

Out of bounds
This is exactly why I never wanted Microsoft to get involved. They can spin whatever they like, and as they waste 69 billion on some call of duty solution, I am in the process of taking their population away from them. You see, you can spin innovation, but when the results are absent. You become part of the problem. This is supported by two part. In the first part one source gave me that 75% of the Xbox population is the Xbox series S, as such they already lack next generation solutions. The second one is harder. This was seen two days ago (at https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/20/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html) where we are given ‘US debt rises to $33 trillion as government shutdown looms’, we know there will be some last minute ‘solution’ but that is now becoming increasingly less and less likely. Microsoft has a system that ‘thrives’ on US government and its allies and that is a massive chunk of its business. So when that machine starts going idle more and more, their goose is cooked. This is why I speculated on a 2026 fall of Microsoft. Google decided on another path, so they are out and Amazon doesn’t seem to be waking up. Now China has three sides of a square nearly ready. The media is happy to spin that this is merely three sides of a heptagon and they too are pretty spiffy on presentations. Yet there I am with the other solution.

Why Canada?
Canada was part of the solution from day one. Even as I had no idea on the impact Microsoft was facing at that point, for the simple reason that I never cared about Microsoft. They merely were. But on the 5th of November 2021 I wrote ‘Egg-timer please’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/11/05/egg-timer-please/) there I wrote about Randy Lennox, CEO of Bell Media. There were two reasons, one he was Canadian (Americans were starting to get a global bad rep), he would not have that against him, which mattered to me to progress my IP. In addition he had sides of a documentarist which would be important for part of my solution and as a CEO he had international access (something I will never have). In addition Canada was a commonwealth nation and as a commonwealthian that mattered to me. 

So why the numbers?
You see, the numbers sound nice, but to get to the 50 million subscriptions I need a acceleration curve, anti clustering shows that acceleration a lot quicker. The simplest example I can give you is the difference between ‘You need to be a biker and you need to be a painter and you need to be a technologist’ and ‘You need to be a biker or you need to be a painter or you need to be a technologist’. It is not that simple, but it shows the difference the quickest. If acceleration is key, the ‘or’ group is the acceleration you need. 

These factor made me realise that Microsoft would never be the solution, they keep on buying and missing the innovation. They will state that they are the innovation that works like an anchor, but the innovation of an anchor is not because it is working, but because it didn’t work and we see plenty of that at Microsoft, but they never improved their models and I spoke about these failures too often to rename them now. Amazon was for the longest time the larger option to get it all done, but they decided not to wake up (I actually gave them the heads up). As such Andy Jassy and Jeff Bezos struck out. Now we have a new option. You see, I considered Apple, but they had their own niche. I respect niche players, but they come with blinkers. That is optionally not a bad thing (as long as they pass the qualifying question) but without that I am giving away the play to them and giving Apple something for nothing is just too unacceptable to me. Hence I contacted the Saudi Government in September 2022, I admit it did not go the way I had hoped, but not all was lost. If the Kingdom Holding group would accept the stage I presented, all would be well (I am still waiting). A new player that reared its head in January 2023 was the Tencent Technology group. They had the drive to make it work, but I believe a lot more could be achieved if Amazon or Apple were part of that deal (and I do prefer to get paid). It was also around that time that the secondary impact became visible. Meta would lose more and more market share and as such, so would Twitter (read ‘X’). Their losses would not be immediate and would take some time, but their granularity would be lost as my IP gains speed. So when these two lose 30 million people it would hurt their bottom dollar to some extent and from there the damage merely increases on a few fields. It was the advantage a player like Amazon could use to really impact global business. 

Mister X
Mister X does not relate in any way to Twitter. I considered the second person in that equation and I suddenly realised that this person could put the media out of business to a larger extent. The media that has been spinning for the need of their stakeholders and advertisers as well as their digital dollars would suddenly lose a massive amount of revenue over the short initial time. They would not be able to correct for this and they would have to bend over backwards to become anyones bitch. That works for me as the media has become a much larger problem and I suddenly realised that this could be used to wield information in a different direction and lets be clear, these two people stand to make a nice slice of the initial $5,000,000,000 annually. And I am not forgetting about little old me, I stand to make a nice retirement fund as well (which was my initial reason). I care more about my IP being successful but that will hand me a very sizeable retirement parachute too. As such I do hope that certain people will see what they are about to get, not in the least CEO Talal Ibrahim Al Maiman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. The second one doesn’t need the money, but when his royal highness gets to stick it to both the US and the media at the same time, he might do it just for the fun of it. In the meantime I wonder how fast the US shutdown would affect Microsoft. It will not initially do so, but this is the second shutdown danger in as many years and the third is not far behind and when that becomes a threat a third time, the chance of a last minute resort becomes less and less likely. So when the US government shuts down, how will Microsoft receive its cloud revenue? Its 365 revenue? So, how big is the actual Office 365 Government service description? When that shuts down, who pays for the $35 a month, per employee? Did you consider the amount of revenue Microsoft at that point will miss? 

Consider the slippery slope the US is on, consider what they sacrificed for the good of ego and you will realise that I was correct all along, optionally I was correct going all the way back to 2021. 

Enjoy the upcoming weekend.

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September 18, 2023 · 00:14

A dark journey

This journey isn’t for every one. I have hd the same setting earlier and the same conclusion as well, but I was never outspoken about it. I got there via two articles. 

Overdose
The first article is given to us by BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-66810832) where we see ‘UAE seizes billion dollar amphetamine haul’ there we are given “A portion of the 86 million Captagon pills police in Dubai say was seized”. You see, there is literally no reason to be this stupid. This amounts to 10 tablets to EVERY citizen in the UAE. The UAE has a remarkably well organised detection team as well as a well organised cyber investigation team. This was never going to go right. And lets be clear, the idea to set a market to serve 100% of a population is just insane. And I am not the only one thinking this. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are thinking pretty much the same thing (my speculation). This is either a distraction or it is about destabilisation. How? Your guess is as good as mine, but I see o other setting than these two. Perhaps they whistle this load whilst 100Kg (or more) gets safely transported via other places. Now, that would make sense. The materials cooked are not the issue. If you can make that much, you can make 100Kg more. But was it really about the drugs or the distraction. Perhaps it was about finding the right people to assist them in this endeavour. As I said, your guess is as good as mine.

The second article is also from the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66826895) with ‘How the fentanyl crisis’ fourth wave has hit every corner of the US’ there we are given “the US witnessed a grim milestone: for the first time ever, drug overdoses killed more than 100,000 people across the country in one single year. Of those deaths, more than 66% were tied to fentanyl, a synthetic opioid 50 times more powerful than heroin.” It seems that the war on drugs is not working. I see only one solution. After the arrest, just put drug dealers to death, no long trial, no long Rebuttal. As their stuff kills millions, they too should die. And after Breaking Bad, drug dealers have been romanticised. No matter how this plays out, we need to change the game. All this lame war on drugs is as useless as anything we see. Its like throwing your 17 year old daughter naked in a room full of horny sex depraved men thinking she will still be a virgin in 300 seconds time. It is time to change the game with deadly precision. The talkative weak minded liberal politicians have had decades and nothing was achieved. 

Consider 2000, the movie Traffic is released. We see several sides of the drug market and that market had been growing for decades, now a quarter of a century later, it drains healthcare, it drains prison space and it drains the patience of the parents of the victims of drug trafficking. 

Patients and funds are gone. Now, why didn’t I speak up earlier? I did, but not to this degree. You see when nations are attacked and the intent is destabilisation of a government it becomes a very different problem. You see it might start in the US, but the greed driven are never satisfied. The EU is next and after that who knows? With the UAE it becomes a different game, but when you see a board and you do not know whether the data refers to Chess, Checkers or Go it is a hard issue. The hard issue is whether the data supports the view, whether the game presented reflects the real issue or whether it is merely a smokescreen telling us it is one of those three. This matters because in an age where we cannot afford these leaps, we need to make sure that any false leaps are stopped and fast, which is why I am on this dark journey.

Is there another option? 
It is a fair question, but the death graphs from the US implies that it is already to late for that. Before this is stopped hundreds of thousands will die. Now, we have plenty of people (8 billion), so this could go on for a little while longer and if it does the US will be without healthcare funds. This will not take long, I reckon that it collapses within 5 years. So what will we do after that? What will the US do, what will Europe do? Your guess is as good as mine. I reckon that the UAE and other Arabic nations will see that the US is on track to lose it all, and after the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia locked down on drug offences and last year performed at least 20 executions for drug offences, the UAE might follow that course. When the deaths and the cost of healthcare starts adding up, it might not have another option open to them. The fact that they captured 13 tonnes of amphetamine pills smuggled in furniture is one side, the other side is that there is no prediction on what got through via other means. It is speculation on my side, but when you consider the data, I am very likely to be right on this (a little less on the reason on why it is done).

Enjoy the day, Monday is almost here.

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