Tag Archives: United Arab Emirates

August 10, 2024 · 13:06

A little late aren’t you?

It was the setting I was waiting for. The US has given in to its economic pressures and possibly the fear that China might get to much of a headway. Reuters this morning gives me (and other readers) at https://www.reuters.com/world/us-lift-ban-offensive-weapons-sales-saudi-arabia-sources-say-2024-08-09/ the headline ‘US to lift ban on offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia’, which sounds nice but is possibly a little late. Colonel Turki Al-Maliki a member of the Saudi airforce had given us the goods, going all the way back to February 2021. Reuters reported on these attacks in March 2021. In this Reuters is important as they give us ‘Houthis have fired 430 missiles, 851 drones at Saudi Arabia since 2015 – Saudi-led coalition’, the setting is important because civilian targets were aimed at by Houthis amongst them were Saudi airports and structures. So the blockage by the US was weird, especially as the Houthis are a terrorist organisation. So the about turn under the guise of “The Saudis have met their end of the deal, and we are prepared to meet ours”, a little late, isn’t it? But at present the Chinese representatives of parties like the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group is nothing to be sneered at, with the Chengdu J-20 as an optional buy which was (allegedly) discussed at the World Defense Show 2024 in February 2024 (a speculation from me) is giving the Chinese hope to gain much more from the American Defence Industry. Should the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia take that offer, the setting would open the doors (for China) to larger possibilities in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates as well. The damage to the American Industry could amount to an estimated loss of $30-$50 billion over these three nations alone. Not to mention the lucrative service and consultancy jobs. It would be the first definite slam to the value of the US dollar. China is rearing to take up that option in a heartbeat. I discussed (and partially speculated) this in ‘The next Furlong’ which I wrote on March 10th 2022 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/10/the-next-furlong/), as such I was and am now in a stage to emphasise the term ‘told you so’. This setting was clear then and it is a speculated more clear now when we see “Under U.S. law, major international weapons deals must be reviewed by members of Congress before they are made final. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years, citing issues including the toll on civilians of its campaign in Yemen and a range of human rights concerns.” We are about to go into election mode and some politicians will fear for their job a lot more than the American Economy. As such China has a decent chance to crush the American Defence industry. I doubt they fear the Russian abilities as the Russians are getting clobbered by the 20th largest army in the world. The Ukrainians are still damaging the Russian, even after the Russians bombed Ukraine into the stone age. That is not a good sales talk, especially  with the current Russian losses stated below

As such we can accept the Reuters statement, because of its projected validity, yet the words we are given “Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years”, yet the article doesn’t emphasise the attacks by Houthi’s on Saudi civilian targets, which Colonel Turki Al-Maliki showed many clearly going all the way back to 2021, many articles were drowned out by (speculatively speaking) by anti Muslim and anti Saudi voices. Now that China gets to move into a much stronger position, the American administration is taking the gloves off and do what needed to be done in 2021. I reckon that people like Stephanie Kirchgaessner will possibly raise anonymous sources to throw sand in the cogs of common sense. China will love this as this will enable them to get a squadron on Chengdu J-20 into place and optionally ‘gift’ three service teams in the mix, two for maintenance and one to train  Saudi troops. The losses to America will be vast and it will a long term loss. 

As such I think that they were over 2 years late to the party. The initial transfer settings were optionally carved (I have no clear evidence of this) in the airshows of 2021 by SAMI. That would have been the first introductions of Chinese hardware that was to replace whatever America wasn’t giving them at that time. As I personally see it, it might be too late now. You see the Russian losses as shown above are the second piece of evidence. In that setting Russia is no longer a contender and as they are now ‘acquiring’ missiles from North Korea we see a larger question mark, is it merely the lack of missiles or does Russia have a larger problem. I do not know, but Russia isn’t telling, so we are left to our speculations and the Kursk clambake of 2024 Makes things worse for Russia. And in that setting China gets to be the big winner. OK, I admit, this victory would be largely held by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (and supporting parties).

Have a nice day and feel free to watch American revenues move to the far east.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

July 28, 2024 · 11:24

As the idea erupted

This happens, we do one thing and suddenly an idea erupts. In this case I was thinking of the second script that I am generating in Final Draft.

It was a setting that made me think for a moment. And this setting came from the days of the Commodore Amiga. I even was working an reset emulated version of the game in Macromedia Flash, just 1-2 weeks before I suddenly was made redundant. I suddenly had to relocate from Stockholm to Gorinchem when I got screwed over by my previous boss. But the thought got to me and I thought “Wouldn’t this make a great small budget movie?” An ‘almost’ one person movie with its own narration. Most of the movie in a sort of CGI and an interaction with computers and a sort of deserted place. It might not be the Hollywood stage of stories and not really for the big screen, but an idea that a streaming company might like or consider. In a stage where they have to pump billion into material, a low budget might have a much better chance. They can test an actor or actress as well as the director and director of filming in a cheaper setting. As such 3-5 people straight out of film school. I reckon that Pedro Pascal, Tom Hanks, Natalie Portman, Scarlett Johansson and Steven Spielberg would be too expensive. But there are over 50,000 actors many of them do not have a place in Bel Air, not to mention of the amount of Directors in the field. New players have a hard time getting through. So, here the speculated number race through my head and now there is a viable setting. The stage of using low budget films to create a talent pool of newbies. You know people like Pedro Pascal had a lucky break. Considering he was the man behind Napoleon Dynamite (vote for Pedro), I know I can be quirky (read: funny) at times. Still the premise remains, luck isn’t always available so what then? I believe that low budget movies are part of that key and places like Dubai Media are likely to break through their own confinements and start breaking through into the West European streaming markets. There is an upside to that. When the current borders by Netflix and Disney plus start pushing their own limitations others could be there taking up the slack. You see one source is stating ‘The US will need 22,700 film directors over the next 10 years’, I cannot vouch for the accuracy there. Yet this implies that ever upper level University will need to fight off job offers with a stick for 100% of their art students. I nice setting, but not realistic. Adding a talent pool becomes essential and not merely for these people, they will all need scripts. There are plenty of them around, but how good are they?

These elements put the larger streamers on the spot and those ready to grow could enter new fields. This puts Dubai Media in a nice place and lets not forget iQiyi and Tencent Media either. America might hate all that is Chinese, but I reckon that Europe is more open to this stage. As the mindset goes that in the first century Decimus Junius Juvenalis stated “Give them bread and games and they will never revolt” It was around the age of Emperor Trajan. What strikes me was that no-one considered owning the bakers. It might be merely a coin per bread, however the Colosseum had 50-80 thousand spectators and that makes for a nice penny. And there were more places over the empire of Rome where these places had crowds. Being the admiral of baker makes perfect sense to me. Even today ‘give them bread and games’ applies but in this setting nowadays growing the streaming services makes a lot more sense. And there to centrality of content becomes a new focal point. Everyone is looking towards Hollywood, but there is a problem there. California is losing their focus, they are saturated, so new borders are required. The Middle East and Asia make sense and when Europe finds out that the American prices are getting too high the aforementioned three players as well as other other streamers will see their markets erupt. Not to mention countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh that over these two countries have a little over half a billion citizens, we see a disrupted market. All looking at California and Hollywood to hand them materials, but the ongoing mass emigration of residents and businesses from California to other U.S. states (Texas) or countries is about to leave California is a near desperate state and the desperate need to pay a lot more. That opens the doors for the Middle East and Asia to make their mark. It is almost the proverbial butterfingered aide putting all egg in one basket. 

All that came to me in a near instant (in less than on hour) whilst was contemplating a low budget movie. I have no idea yet how to do that (I have three other projects in my brains) but it is something to keep in mind. Considering that this setting will take time to implode (before 2026) I still have time and until the end of the year I need to focus on the next two projects but Residuam Vitam comes first. 

Enjoy this Sunday 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, movies

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

July 14, 2024 · 07:21

The Iranian ploy

I saw the article (at https://www.newarab.com/news/houthis-threaten-riyadh-aerial-footage-key-airports) stating ‘Yemen’s Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia with aerial footage of key airports’, the New Arab with the text “The video, titled “Just try it”, contained images of King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, King Fahd International Airport in Damman as well as the ports in Ras Tanura, Jizan and Jeddah” is a possible ploy. I do not doubt that the Houthi’s (with generous support from Iran) is adding a ploy of threats to their limited tactics. It is clear that Houthi forces can bring something to the table, but I believe that this is nothing more than a ploy. A ploy that could have teeth, but I do not have the required contacts or information to see how serious this is. We see an additional setting with “The threat to Saudi Arabia by the Houthis comes amid reports that the government and Houthis failed to strike a fresh prisoner exchange deal”, which is fun because this was a deal between Houthis and the legitimate Yemen government. So this is all about posturing, or is it?

You see, a few hours later I was given through Arab News (at https://arab.news/6p5tn) ‘Iran’s new president vows balance with all countries, warns US his country won’t be pressured’ where Iran apparently made the claim “He looks forward to engaging in constructive dialogue with European countries”, so there is the carrot. Iran needs Saudi Arabia in a holding pattern, whilst Iran ‘appeases’ European nations. So as I see it Houthi forces are still the barking dogs of Iran and Iran needs this, because their support of Hamas will have secondary contemplations by any nation thinking that talking with Iran is a good idea. It has not now or yesterday worked and it will not work tomorrow either. 

As Iran is hiding their hands behind terrorist organisations like Hamas or Houthi forces, we need to be weary that stability in the Middle East requires both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, they have the growing economies, the larger setting for tourism and the options of uniting Arab nations. The problem is that Iran is a problem. They are crying like little girls as they are denied a larger seat at the Arab table. The only small friend that Iran can rely on is Qatar and they have growing issues with Hamas. How that plays out is beyond me but in this setting we have Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman and Iraq. They are all playing nice and as I see it, there is not to much love for Iran in this. Qatar is the one successful nation that has been playing a dangerous game, so what happens with them is up in the air. I reckon that the Houthi’s are set to the threat to Saudi Arabia. In this my feelings are that if one attack on a civilian target is done, the might of the Saudi forces will bluntly retaliate against Houthi forces. This has the one complication that Iran has to either commit or desert Houthi forces. This is the ploy as I see it. Iran cries loudly towards Europeans that they are so willing to discuss peace, but they are under the hammer. It will be something like that. So the Iranian ploy is unlikely to work. Europe has enough problems with Russia and Russia could be of little use to Iran. Russia has only one carrier left and they need it in their Ukrainian tactics. But this is about Iran. They are losing ‘useful’ friends a lot faster than they are happy with. It is in that setting that the Houthi threat is (as I personally see it) an Iranian tactic. 

They have to play nice with some people because they are about to learn the lesson Hector Malot taught us with ‘Sans Famille’ and Iran is rightfully worried. You see when the coins come down Iran will have to put up or shut up and they will lose a lot of face in the entire Middle East, sitting at a table where the stabilising points come from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. That is why (my personal point of view) Iran need Houthi, Hamas and any other player that Iran can place in the field with deniability. It is why I said that whatever Palestine comes through, it will require the eradication of Hamas. Because it will be them who will terrorise the building projects in Saudi Arabia. 

So how can I prove any of this? Well the history of Iran is one. Their actions towards Houthi forces is another and the Iranian actions are right after the threats from Houthi forces. I feel that one ploy is enabling other actions. 

But for the most in this, I am merely speculating. So enjoy this Sunday.

Leave a comment

Filed under Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

July 1, 2024 · 10:51

The changes to a Digital Currency

I was alerted to a story on https://www.cointribune.com/en/saudi-arabia-joins-the-wrong-blockchain/ stating ‘Saudi Arabia joins the wrong Blockchain…’, well that is merely a matter of opinion. You see the CBDC (aka mBridge) is a digital currency that is controlled by banks. It is under control by China (read Tencent) and is a system that runs next to swift. It could rival it over the next few years and moreover could overtake swift too (speculative view by the writer, aka me). The involvement of Saudi Arabia implies “The kingdom’s integration into the BRICS club is far from trivial. Member countries are clearly expressing their intention to purge the dollar from their exchanges. The arrival of the Saudis could mean that Saudi oil exports to China could one day be conducted via the mBridge blockchain, in yuan”, implies is as I word it, but the implications as quoted is the first major dent into the ‘settings’ that could take a lot of Wall Street out of the frame, again this is purely speculative. Another source, Forbes gives us (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/08/24/bitcoin-vs-cbdcs-analyzing-universal-access-in-digital-currency/) ‘Bitcoin Vs. CBDCs: Analyzing Universal Access In Digital Currency’, which they gave us last August. They also give us “The digital cash revolution was spearheaded first by bitcoin and then by other cryptocurrencies, which has led to the birth of Central Bank Digital Currencies.” This is followed up by “it’s the rise of CBDCs and cryptocurrencies that may represent the most transformative phase in this evolution.” I think that is the larger issue. I don’t trust Bitcoin, not because of the digital setting, but the picture that it is not supported by any coins, or gold make it a virtual currency. ‘Everyone’ is on board for what they think it will bring. But the larger picture becomes that a virtual setting could from today ($62,730.9037) and when it goes to $50,184.7258 tomorrow (worst case scenario) there is nothing stopping it, moreover I reckon that all these pensioners hoping to get rich of this, this downfall will result in lots of pensioners ending with nothing. That was the fear I alway had. This is why I do not trust it. The CBDC (mBridge) is as said cemented in “the country’s central bank.” Forbes also gives us on the of the 23rd of June (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/06/23/cross-border-cbdc-focused-project-mbridge-moves-forward/) “For more than three years, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been working on a cross-border central bank digital currency (CBDC) project known as mBridge. In a nutshell, the project aims to improve efficiency, speed and transparency in cross-border payments.” It is the transparency that matters and the fact that it is under control of a nations central bank. This implies that banks are ultimately responsible for issues, with Bitcoin this is anyones guess. The text “MBridge recently took an important step forward with the completion of its minimal viable product (MVP) stage and the decision by Saudi Arabia to join the project.” You see this means that mBridge would be getting support from places like Aramco and China with their Yuan. This puts the USA on a slippery slope (commercial wise) if the oil dollar pushed to nowhere, the Yuan will gain strides of upgrades. Additional we get “According to China’s Digital Currency Research Institute (DCRI), mBridge transactions take seven seconds and cut cross-border payment costs by 50%.” I believe that the 7 second delay is only applicable to cross border issues and I do believe that this is a temporary delay (before the first upgrade a time upgrade), the reducing of cost by 50% would be cheered by all sides of the equation (probable with the exception of Wall Street). The article ends with “but risks to the initiative will rise sharply if it becomes seen as part of broader U.S.-China competition” a political setting, but as that rises the USA (and optionally the EU) will lose a lot more. For the most the people are fed up with the American bully tactics. It is hurting their pocket. Consider that a decade ago where everyone copied the narrative “Washington officials began warning of Huawei’s ability to embed spying capabilities in its gear” but never was any EVIDENCE presented by anyone. We get setting like ‘could’ and ‘the possibility arises’’. The former director of German intelligence stated to Deutsche Welle that they didn’t understand that technology. So where is the evidence? America presented a case that was settled a decade earlier. China has issues with the US and EU. This is their shot across the bough. And it is one that matters. With billions in revenue gained, with the BRICS setting and with a setting that could replace the oil dollar with the Yuan, Wall Street would lose a lot. So whilst the American administration begs for cheaper oil, all whilst they pretty much shot themselves in the foot. 2025 and 2026 might prove disastrous for both the US and EU. The EU will accept the mBridge solution a lot earlier than the US would and when the Bitcoin loses 20% or more in value. Many pensions will be reduced to zero. It was the risk of a decentralised system with no foundation in any bank or in a commodity like gold, but that is merely my point of view.

Enjoy today, it is still yesterday in Vancouver and Toronto. 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

June 9, 2024 · 22:58

The unspoken call

There was a call in Reuters last week. I had seen it, however I was dealing with the intelligence I was able to lay my hands on. It seems like a simple exercise but it is not. The article (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-experts-urge-all-countries-recognise-palestinian-statehood-2024-06-03/) gives us ‘UN experts urge all countries to recognise Palestinian statehood’, it seems so simple. Yet it is more complex than you think. You see that setting might be acceptable AFTER Hamas has been eradicated and the west knows this. You see Hamas is a one trick pony, it resorts to violence only ad at present it does so through Iranian guidance. If Palestinian statehood is awarded whilst Hamas is still in charge, all bet are off. The west knows this and they don’t like the centrepiece of Arabian stability. There is Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). That one trick pony (Hamas) will come with its new rule. A bigger seat at the Arabian table. When they do not get it Saudi Projects will suffer. The Line, Oxagon, Trojena, Sindalah, Red Sea International Airport, Mukaab, Qiddiya and a few more will subtly be suffering set backs, optional outright sabotage. That would cost Saudi Arabia billions. In addition UAE locations like Dubai and Abu Dhabi will be hit. It will not be some case of speculation, Iran does not like the path Arabia is on. It does not allow any path where they are an inferior setting. And they now have their claws in Hamas and Houthi forces. 

As such Hamas needs to be eradicated. It is simplest if Israel does it. It could do with the win and Saudi hands will remain clean. When Saudi Arabia and the UAE are forced to act the result will be destabilisation for years to come. All what Saudi Arabia had achieved will be for naught. The UAE will likely get a hit on tourism and travel, but there too the impact will be felt. The west likes this. They are trying to rally against China and the Arabian players are part of Brics now, catering options for China. All options are largely lost to the west. So they are now calling to include Palestine into everything. A call that is too rash for words. 

We can think all we can on Palestine, but they let Hamas in and did not do anything about Hamas for 2 decades. Hamas is under their buildings, part of their infrastructure and they have grown the next generation of Palestines to be terrorists too. The west did little to nothing, they figured that Israel would deal with that problem. Now that Israel is, the anti semitic rhetoric is taking global proportions. And the media was quiet for too long on the 120 hostages and they trivialised matters. So now that the gloves come off there will be another setting. If Israel succeeds in eradicating Hamas, statehood for Palestine could follow, yet with a few clauses. Any new Hamas interference will result in economic sanctions. In support of this other economic means will be required. Also Egypt will have to show it hands and allow Palestinians through. You know, I do not think this will happen. Egypt had identified the threat that Hamas and Palestine sets. Why do you think that they put a wall there? No one is questioning that part. It is all about Israel. 

If Israel does not succeed and statehood is awarded to Palestine, Saudi and UAE intelligence will have to beef up operations. Saudi will have a lot more riding on this and whilst there are upsides for Saudi Arabia, the risks are a lot higher. In the mean time Hamas leadership is still comfortable in Qatar and Iran has lines out to them. I wonder what will come to a close first. Israeli patience, of Saudi patience after statehood is awarded. 

In the end part of this is speculation, but the premise is sound and when Iran flexes its financial muscles towards Palestine, Saudi interests in Saudi Arabia will come under pressure, and it will resolved by giving a bigger seat to Hamas, the Iranian tool. A setting that we must avoid, the west especially. The west might no longer be a global strong power, but when chaos hit the Arabian peninsula, only the greed driven parties will see it as a plus point. The rest will suffer the consequences. And in this the media will shrug it off saying they merely reported on it. But the media will be every bit as guilty as anyone else. Even more so as they decided to not inform the public and filter events to what their stakeholders share holders and advertisers required. But the media will not report on that. I wonder why. 

Leave a comment

Filed under Media, Military, Politics, Tourism

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 13, 2024 · 22:44

It’s a WOW.

There was something unreal about the news I saw in several sources. The Emirates have posted record revenue boosts. The article (source Reuters) gives us “Dubai’s Emirates airline on Monday reported full-year profit up more than 60% at 17.23 billion dirhams ($4.69 billion), comfortably beating the previous year’s 10.6 billion dirhams” 

We can ‘deduce’ from that that they almost beat their last year target by 60%, that amounts to something. Because of some options in Dubai and Abu Dhabi I tend to keep an eye on anything UAE, so this was a whopper of an achievement. Then we get the additional “The state-owned airline will pay its staff a bonus equivalent to 20 weeks’ salary” which is big. I never recall BA or KLM doing anything like it, or Air France for that matter. Good people is about keeping them happy and the prospect of 20 weeks of vacation does just that. Your quality of life goes up. Take that with a previous article I mentioned about the recruitment drive that they have going implies that the run on Emirati jobs will increase rather dramatically. Now in light of Dubai Airport where everything is large, smooth and well catered to implies that it should drive tourism even further. Dubai is already one of the largest airports in the world, currently number 2 after Atlanta Georgia, but that will not last long. There is a new wave happening and I reckon that when they upgrade their Customer Service Systems (my speculation) the formula changes even further. Consider that arrival in Dubai also triggers the Hotel, so they know that you are coming, taking one queue partially away from you. We see all these software vendor scream AI whilst bullying you into installing add-ons (Google), or Advertising you to death (Microsoft) and they probably never considered to look at the foundations of Customer Care in tourism and travel. Weird isn’t it? 

A stage where some think “it is part of the journey, part of the pain”, and no one considered that this pain could be dealt with. Should the UAE and optionally Saudi Arabia deal with that pain places like France, UK, EU and USA will have a much larger issue. It isn’t that their sights aren’t worth seeing. It becomes a setting where it takes a lot more effort to see them. The first hurdle for any tourist. And it is a simple setting of one hand feeding the other. In 5 years the tourist picture will look very different. I wonder when some will catch on to what Emirates is currently achieving. 

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Tourism

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , ,

February 21, 2024 · 23:44

Exit towards destabilisation

That is the setting that we see coming a mile away, or at least I am and that is how I see it. Today I am given ‘China condemns US veto of call for immediate ceasefire at UN’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68355436) and I have a problem with this. You see, the problem with the article is that we see “China has sharply criticised the US for vetoing a United Nations (UN) Security Council resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.” Yet, the issue is more complex. There can not now, or will there ever be peace as long as Hamas exists. Hamas will never stop. Its commanders are safely in Qatar, a nation that has given Hamas almost $2,000,000,000 in financial support. Then there is Iran and they both are vying for destabilisation in the Arabian peninsula. It is a very personal view, but I believe that is the game that is being played with Hamas as puppets, right next to the Houthi forces. The problem is that we are given disinformation from nearly every side and that is hampering insight and optional progress. 

As I see it the two powers in the Middle East are the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This is not what either Qatar or Iran like. They want a much bigger seat at the table and as such there is an essential need to rely on Hamas and Houthi forces and in this Iran seems the only actor, but I am not convinced. There is no clear intelligence what Qatar is doing beside sheltering the top of Hamas, which is as far as I can tell not a crime, not even in the Arabian peninsula nations. As I stated a personal view is that it is much better that Israel deals with Hamas. You see when BRICS evolves and the table setting is clear Iran will not be happy. They want more and they will push Hamas (and others) to get a larger seat at the table of plenty and Hamas being the one trick pony they are will strike out at the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia first striking their projects. Lets be clear, I have no intelligence available that this will happen, but knowing what I do know. A one trick pony will resort to what it knows and for Hamas this is violence, and violence alone. At that point the KSA will either strike back in full or they will have to concede. Do you think that the KSA will concede against a terrorist organisation? It would be all the information that the Houthis would require to attack again and again, and Iran would show its clean hands stating “We had no hand in this” all whilst supplying weapons to both. 

This is the stage of destabilisation that China needs and that is at this point the wrong stance to have. As such my message to China’s UN ambassador Zhang Jun who gives us “Only by extinguishing the flames of war in Gaza can we prevent the fires of hell from engulfing the entire region” is “take Hamas out of the region and talks can begin”. You see the stage of Palestinian territory’s Hamas-run health ministry is the larger problem. Anything Hamas run is tainted and that needs to stop. We can cry all we want for the Palestinians, yet Hamas is part of the problem and it started on October 7th 2023. Too many are ducking that part and have been since day one of the IDF assaults. That is before we consider the larger stage that we are given that the UNRWA is accused of directly supporting Hamas. The Washington Post gave us an image of a Hamas data centre UNDER the UNRWA building. The problem is that all sides are engaged with disinformation. I cannot deny that there are voices that Israel is doing the same that Palestine are doing in that regard. Israel has had well over a week to publish all evidence via all newspapers, they did not do that, that must be considered as well. 

My largest fear is that Hamas is pushed to attack any of the KSA projects and that will start new stages of destabilisation, not to say what they will do given a chance to Dubai and Abu Dhabi. I believe that the risk is too high for any Arabian peninsula nation. In all this Hamas must go, preferably today and permanently. 

I truly believe that this is the only way that there is a future for the Palestinians and to remain with a stable middle east. The problem is that I am stating this based on information available to me and there could be issues with that. Yet there is no denying that Hamas is a problem for everyone and the sooner all others realise this, the better we all will be.

Enjoy the week. I might be away for a few days.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

January 26, 2024 · 17:00

What is the real fear?

That was the first thought that hit me when I saw several articles like the one (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/25/emirates-backed-stake-vodafone-security-risk-uae-uk-government) where we are given ‘UK says Emirates-backed stake in Vodafone poses national security risk’ and my first thought was ‘What?’ Now, lets be clear, I have no idea how true the statement is, for the longest time I saw Vodafail as a joke (I was a victim of their not so nice side a decade ago). Vodafone is almost everywhere (EU, UK, Australia) so why is the UK the only one crying foul? 

The article gives us “The Cabinet Office issued a notice late on Wednesday warning that the 14.6% stake held in Vodafone by Emirates Telecoms, amounted to a security concern given Vodafone’s strategic role in the UK’s telecommunications services.” Now, I don’t see the danger, but that might clearly be me. This is not my cup of tea. But all these companies whoring for dollars and investors have been playing on every field and now it is an issue? How about the board of Vodafone not whoring for investors? And why is the less than 15% a security risk? Then we are given “That move triggered the government to look into the deal under the National Security and Investment Act 2021, owing to Vodafone’s importance as strategic supplier of the UK government and being involved in the country’s cybersecurity infrastructure. However, the government had not previously made any public announcements saying it was looking into the partnership.” Now, as I personally see it, that act is 3 years old. At the moment of creation, why was there not a clear message that anyone involved in investing in infrastructure is prohibited in ‘courting’ investors? There is a clear case that if this is indeed stamped a security risk, there is a chance that the UAE can reclaim investment plus 50% damage bonus and Vodafail better cough up that dough (obviously they will charge the UK government for that).  

My question becomes ‘What is the real fear?’

In sight of “Under the terms of the strategic partnership, Emirates Telecom can increase its stake to just under 25%, while also having the opportunity to add another executive to the board if its ownership tops 20%.” I merely wonder what the danger (if any) there is. I honestly don’t know. You see Vodafone is in 16 countries and is stated to have over 160 million customers. If I had the money I might consider that and there has been several messages over the last 2 years that Vodafone cleaned up their act and services. There are several deals, mergers and investigations in place that give rise to the simple fact that certain people are placing their chess pieces (corporations) and they are (my speculation) in a stage that they do not want the UAE to be part of any of this. There is of course another option for the UAE. They could start to collect other telecom corporations and chisel the Vodafone slice down to a manageable size. I personally would start by grabbing places that give access to Germany and France, Vodafone has too much power there (and in some places too shoddy reception) and form there grow the market. France and Germany when properly grown would give access to Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Austria. From there Germany allows growth towards Poland and Czech Republic. It is a much slower path, but I reckon that these loud mouthed politicians will run for cover when Vodafone suddenly is worth 25%-35% less. Let’s be clear, I have no idea how there is a security risk ad we aren’t given that in any clear way, but as I personally see it “a security concern given Vodafone’s strategic role in the UK’s telecommunications services” if that was really true, why was Vodafone allowed to start partnerships? Is it to attract American dollars alone? I have no idea but the UAE and the KSA are the only ones with a credit card that is not maxed out at present. 

I am not telling you this is wrong, I cannot tell. I am asking what is the real fear? Because that is the larger issue in this instance. Just my €0.02 on the matter.

Enjoy Friday that is about to start for most of you and it is gone for 71% for me at the moment, but Saturday is just behind it.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Law, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

January 25, 2024 · 18:42

Those happy dreams

We all have them and I just had mine (not the one with Laura Vandervoort). The dream started with me attending some gameshow with Amazon bigwigs. I personally handed Phil Spencer a gold inlaid wooden spoon with the message that I try to keep my word. That morning Amazon with the Luna surpassed 75 million consoles (plus subscriptions) sold, Microsoft is now deal last in the gaming industry (nice achievement for the strongest console in the world), apparently big hardware isn’t everything. But the dream moved on, I was talking to His Excellency Ahmed Al-Khateeb, Minister of tourism for Saudi Arabia. 

I was explaining to him (and to myself) a new approach to customer service solutions and I called it the Complete Customer Service Solution System (C2S3 for short). The image is more for myself so I can recall it later. A complete system based on foundations of Nice CX One but with a massive difference, the organisations were no longer central here, they are still the centre or axial in it all, but the central setting becomes the tourist. A system no one ever considered (or off hand rejected), but in 2025-2030 the tourist, the customer needs to be the central hub in everything. Places like Saudi Arabia and the UAE need an evolved customer solution system because that is how they remain top player. The larger players (like Hilton and Marriott) will get on board fast, because they will see the benefit there, then the them parks and soon thereafter they all want to join such a system and in the cloud you can find a person fast. You see, the biggest drain on any vacation is time loss, people take it for granted, but what happens when one or two players throw that overboard and redo the whole thing? What happens when the total vacation has 0.1% logistics at best? You go through the mill in the Airport, at the hotel, at attractions, at resorts. So what if the airport is the start, but it is replicated to other places as soon as you go through gate one? What happens when you are in a new place and you do not get lost, because the tag you have tells you where you are and where you are supposed to go? Now consider that around the world, it is estimated that over one million young people are reported missing every year. Don’t be afraid, will over 95% is found within a day. Now consider this new system where a child is found within the hour, optionally quicker. The loss of stress in almost unimaginable. And it is not merely loss that is removed. It is that places will hand out badges with RFID, the RFID records your achievements and records what you have done, so the tourist will have a record on him that he can look at. 2 days of skiing, 12 slopes, they keep a progression record and a record of places. In Japan they have a booklet where you can stamp where you have been and every place has its own stamp. Now consider that digital record, connect that to a digital library and the tourist can make a small photo album with their own images and insert their digital records of places they have visited. They can make it anywhere in the world and it can remain private. A system where the foundation is Arrival and Departure, it does not matter where you go from there. You could visit as a family the Almasaa Cafe in Riyadh, wouldn’t it be nice to insert a digital sticker in your album when you were there with personal pictures? The list goes on and a system like that isn’t build overnight, but it has the merit that for once the tourist is the centrepiece of it all (some claim that, but it is their sales system). A setting where the customer solution is build and designed around the customer. In 43 years I have never seen such a system, have you? 

Now that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are about to be the pole position players in tourism, such a system would solve several items. They would also imply that they are about to stay at the top position until others catch on, and after the SEC blunder I saw yesterday some players will be behind these two players for years to come. 

Just a thought, enjoy Friday in 24 hours.

3 Comments

Filed under Finance, IT, Science, Tourism

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

January 21, 2024 · 13:32

Pink is the colour of ignorance

That is what set this in motion. All the (as I would call them) stupid people all having their own little opinion devoid of facts. It is the devoid of facts that makes them stupid (as I personally see it). Still, you need to be forewarned of this article. To see this you need to realise the difference between speculation and presumption. One is a guess, the other is an educated guess. The difference is all about knowledge of the subject matter and in this case I do not have that. So even as I rely on facts, on given knowledge my guess remains that, a guess, optional pure speculation. I think it will be better than what some will give you, but that will be up to you to decide. This was all set off by a story in LinkedIn. 

The story (at https://www.linkedin.com/posts/codepink_today-when-we-asked-senator-menendez-when-activity-7153799630453923841-xIln) gives us the accusation, and the BS from a group of people (all women) that have a point of view, but like the irrelevant tea nannies all against arms for Saudi Arabia via Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT), they cannot see the whole picture and they caused the loss of billions to the United Kingdom treasury coffers. You see this all started with Hamas. On Sat, Oct 7th 2023 Hamas attacked Israel. The result 1,139 deaths – 695 Israeli civilians (including 36 children), 71 foreign nationals, and 373 members of the security forces. Approximately 250 Israeli civilians and soldiers were taken as hostages to the Gaza Strip, including 30 children, with the stated goal to force Israel to release Palestinian prisoners. It was quite literally the straw that broke the camels back and Israel responded, harshly I might add. This is what set it off and the ignorant are eager to ignore this fact. Now we see SBS giving us that Gaza now has 25,000 casualties, and several sources give us the starting point. It wasn’t Israel, it was Hamas and we better wake up and we need to wake up fast.

The guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/18/evidence-points-to-systematic-use-of-rape-by-hamas-in-7-october-attacks) gives us ‘Evidence points to systematic use of rape and sexual violence by Hamas in 7 October attacks’ with the text “Israel’s top police investigations unit, Lahav 433, is still poring over 50,000 pieces of visual evidence and 1,500 witness testimonies, and says it is unable to put a number on how many women and girls suffered gender-based violence”, so how many media outlets gave us that part of the equation, or how many media outlets give us the fact (recorded by IDF) that Hamas has weapons caches and connecting tunnels straight into Gaza hospitals. None of the hospital staff ever came forward with that, did they? When you add these parts to the equation we see that Israel pretty much has no choice and as long as Gaza protects Hamas, they are in for a rough ride and soon they will stand alone. 

Standing alone?
Yes, you see what Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates clearly see is that Hamas is not some muslim solution. They are a liability and they are a danger to middle eastern stability. The moment that comes out clearly to all muslims, Hamas will be deserted by the population of Saudi Arabia, The Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt and Oman (I’m not sure where Iraq stands). In that setting Qatar giving refuge to the heads of Hamas will have to choose to be out of the game or throw Hamas out. Qatar for now has Al Jazeera, when the KSA starts its international English news channel that advantage is gone. As such Qatar will have to openly side with Iran or be made the irrelevant player of the Middle East. In that regard when the UAE and KSA do start the stability setting, Egypt will get on board fast because of the economic benefits, as will Oman, as will Bahrain. The rest will have to chose and as I see it that leaves very little options for Hamas, they were close to irrelevant 5 years ago, now they are out of options. And the middle east needs stability, something America is fearful of. They had a good thing going in instability. Now the game changes and the largest economic hub could be the middle east by 2032. The EU is in shambles, it is all about presentations and not about providing results, merely quoting the image of results (where did I see that before?) Overall the larger game for the middle east is to set a table with the largest players. I believe the three players are Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Egypt, the rest is not unimportant, but these three are the founding pillars. When that happens Hamas is a liability and Iran becomes obsolete. So where will Qatar end? Hard to say, it largely depends on Qatar handles that situation, but as long as it gives refuge to Hamas their options will be dwindling down and I reckon faster than they are happy about, especially after the KSA starts its global English news channel. 

Yes, they are all facts, but in the end my point of view is speculative, no matter how many facts surround this. When you start looking at some of the actions and the inability of the media to give us facts. Where can we look? Consider that the media has been soft on Houthi activities for three years, now that they are attacking ships and impeding profits, now they are all out on these Houthi’s? These terrorists? So where were they in the last three years when Hezbollah allegedly and Iran were supplying these forces with arms and drones. Where was the media when Iran backed Houthis were attacking civilian Saudi targets? Investigate for yourself and see what we weren’t told. Consider these parts when forming your point of view instead of blatantly following the colour of ignorance.

Enjoy the weekend.

Leave a comment

Filed under Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,