Category Archives: Tourism

In the heat of the night (and day)

I got news yesterday, I had to mull things over as this is not something I have know how on. The article was from the BBC and as they lost a lot of credibility, I had to investigate a few things.

The article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cxrrzp479r4o) gives us ‘Egyptian pilgrims ‘totally abandoned’ in Hajj heat’, I found it to be a blatant inaccuracy given (to say the least). But let me give you the information that matters.

The article gives us “Effendiya, a widow, went to Mecca on a tourist visa, not on an official Hajj visa. She was among hundreds of thousands of unregistered pilgrims who hoped to fulfil their religious obligation this year without obtaining special Hajj permits”, as well as “Pilgrims usually stay in air-conditioned tents, have buses to drive them between holy sites and are provided with medical care. Sayyed says Effendiya and other unregistered pilgrims “had none of these facilities, they were totally abandoned”. He adds that they tried to protect themselves from the searing heat by using bedsheets to make a tent.” All this comes across as true, I cannot fault that. Where the BBC (and others) fall short is the fact that Saudi Arabia has rules. Mecca has a little over 2 million people. During the Hajj the population there is doubled. This year it had 1.8 million pilgrims. So those are the official numbers. Unregistered pilgrims are not part of this, as such they do not get any of the facilities. I certain path to death, especially as this year the Hajj was done under a searing sun pumping up the temperature to 51.8 degrees (Celsius). So these unregistered pilgrims are not given air-conditioned tents, bus rides or medical care. 

The Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/19/hajj-heat-deaths-missing-pilgrims-search-saudi-arabia) gives us with ‘Search for missing pilgrims continues after hajj heat deaths’ an additional “Arab diplomats on Tuesday told Agence France-Presse at least 550 pilgrims had died this year, the majority due to heat-related illnesses after temperatures reached 51.8C (125F) in Mecca, Islam’s holiest city.” I believe that the BBC fell short of exposing of creating a clear message that there is a risk by going to Mecca on a tourist visa during the Hajj. The guardian gives us “Each year, tens of thousands of pilgrims attempt to perform the hajj through irregular channels as they cannot afford the often costly official permits. This had become easier since 2019 when Saudi Arabia introduced a general tourism visa, said Umer Karim, an expert on Saudi politics at the University of Birmingham.” You see there is a reason that the official permit comes at a price. The air-conditioned tents and busses as well as medical posts cost a fair bit and when you have to deal with 1.8 million pilgrims that cost will increase. Consider Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour. The cost of a stadium with 96,000 people. The cost of that and multiply it by 20, that is the reality. Compare that to the Super-bowl 2024 where only 61,629 attended. The Hajj attracts the biggest audience in the world and this year is was unduly hot. They might not have known this before they attended but that is a large slice of the issue and the BBC did not clearly identify it. They stated this, but not the indirect issues that are in play. I wonder if the 550 pilgrims mentioned are merely the registered ones. Those who had access to air-conditioning, water, busses and medical options. I reckon that there are more elements in play. They might not have directly mattered, but indirectly they could have set an influence. None of that is seen in the articles. 

In other light, the New Arab gives us “According to multiple testimonies, the deaths were caused not only by heat but by poor management of the disaster by Saudi authorities.” The question that comes to mind is due to unregistered or registered pilgrims? It matters as there are lager issues in place. As it happens we might not be able to tell who was registered or not but the unregistered pilgrims are the weight that changes whether a boat floats or sinks. In addition, 51.8 degrees is largely unheard of, even if you are in an air-conditioned tent with a fair supply of water. In addition we see “Saudi authorities have struggled to crack down against the practice, particularly this year when over two million pilgrims were expected, although they reportedly turned back over 250,000 unregistered pilgrims”, in this setting I wonder what investigation the BBC (and the Guardian) did to investigate the Egyptian travel agent that did this, because it is always about the money, which indicates a paper trail. These people had arranged flights, that means a passport. That part took less then 5 minutes for me to figure out. So when we see “Hesham’s wife, walked tens of kilometres under the scorching sun from one holy site to the next, unable to board the official Hajj buses made available to pilgrims” it is the grim reality doing that under the condition of 51.8 degrees Celsius. I doubt I would last half that distance, a 70 year old person won’t last even that long. Were mistakes made? I reckon there were, little to no doubt about that. But in regards to the unregistered pilgrims I do believe that the Saudi Arabian government and Tawfig Al-Rabiah, Minister of Hajj and Umrah are as I see it not to blame. I might alter that point of view when Saudi Arabia has conducted its own investigation, yet I also believe that these travel agents need to be hunted down and prosecuted. In addition their businesses are to be taken away from them and they shouldn’t ever be allowed to be allowed in a tourism position. They pretty much send these people to their deaths. And these people know that they are in trouble, as the BBC reports “Her family say they have been unable to contact the broker who organised her trip”, an unreachable travel broker? He probable fears the consequences (a speculation by me at present).

Enjoy this Saturday, mine is almost over.

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The unspoken call

There was a call in Reuters last week. I had seen it, however I was dealing with the intelligence I was able to lay my hands on. It seems like a simple exercise but it is not. The article (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-experts-urge-all-countries-recognise-palestinian-statehood-2024-06-03/) gives us ‘UN experts urge all countries to recognise Palestinian statehood’, it seems so simple. Yet it is more complex than you think. You see that setting might be acceptable AFTER Hamas has been eradicated and the west knows this. You see Hamas is a one trick pony, it resorts to violence only ad at present it does so through Iranian guidance. If Palestinian statehood is awarded whilst Hamas is still in charge, all bet are off. The west knows this and they don’t like the centrepiece of Arabian stability. There is Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). That one trick pony (Hamas) will come with its new rule. A bigger seat at the Arabian table. When they do not get it Saudi Projects will suffer. The Line, Oxagon, Trojena, Sindalah, Red Sea International Airport, Mukaab, Qiddiya and a few more will subtly be suffering set backs, optional outright sabotage. That would cost Saudi Arabia billions. In addition UAE locations like Dubai and Abu Dhabi will be hit. It will not be some case of speculation, Iran does not like the path Arabia is on. It does not allow any path where they are an inferior setting. And they now have their claws in Hamas and Houthi forces. 

As such Hamas needs to be eradicated. It is simplest if Israel does it. It could do with the win and Saudi hands will remain clean. When Saudi Arabia and the UAE are forced to act the result will be destabilisation for years to come. All what Saudi Arabia had achieved will be for naught. The UAE will likely get a hit on tourism and travel, but there too the impact will be felt. The west likes this. They are trying to rally against China and the Arabian players are part of Brics now, catering options for China. All options are largely lost to the west. So they are now calling to include Palestine into everything. A call that is too rash for words. 

We can think all we can on Palestine, but they let Hamas in and did not do anything about Hamas for 2 decades. Hamas is under their buildings, part of their infrastructure and they have grown the next generation of Palestines to be terrorists too. The west did little to nothing, they figured that Israel would deal with that problem. Now that Israel is, the anti semitic rhetoric is taking global proportions. And the media was quiet for too long on the 120 hostages and they trivialised matters. So now that the gloves come off there will be another setting. If Israel succeeds in eradicating Hamas, statehood for Palestine could follow, yet with a few clauses. Any new Hamas interference will result in economic sanctions. In support of this other economic means will be required. Also Egypt will have to show it hands and allow Palestinians through. You know, I do not think this will happen. Egypt had identified the threat that Hamas and Palestine sets. Why do you think that they put a wall there? No one is questioning that part. It is all about Israel. 

If Israel does not succeed and statehood is awarded to Palestine, Saudi and UAE intelligence will have to beef up operations. Saudi will have a lot more riding on this and whilst there are upsides for Saudi Arabia, the risks are a lot higher. In the mean time Hamas leadership is still comfortable in Qatar and Iran has lines out to them. I wonder what will come to a close first. Israeli patience, of Saudi patience after statehood is awarded. 

In the end part of this is speculation, but the premise is sound and when Iran flexes its financial muscles towards Palestine, Saudi interests in Saudi Arabia will come under pressure, and it will resolved by giving a bigger seat to Hamas, the Iranian tool. A setting that we must avoid, the west especially. The west might no longer be a global strong power, but when chaos hit the Arabian peninsula, only the greed driven parties will see it as a plus point. The rest will suffer the consequences. And in this the media will shrug it off saying they merely reported on it. But the media will be every bit as guilty as anyone else. Even more so as they decided to not inform the public and filter events to what their stakeholders share holders and advertisers required. But the media will not report on that. I wonder why. 

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Bully tactics?

I know, I added a question mark, because the Reuters article leaves me (at https://www.reuters.com/technology/uae-releases-new-ai-model-compete-with-big-tech-2024-05-13/) with questions. It is nice to see that the UAE is going all in for the AI generation and the Abu Dhabi’s Technology Innovation Institute (TII) is releasing a Falcon 2 series: Falcon 2 11B, a text-based model, and Falcon 2 11B VLM based system. However the US gives them scrutiny with the statement “American or Chinese technology.” As such the US is drawing battle lines in the middle east. Considering that we see “Emirati AI firm G42 pulled out Chinese hardware and divested stakes in Chinese companies before securing a $1.5 billion investment from Microsoft that was coordinated with Washington”. The danger for the US is that so far Microsoft hasn’t been delivering anything other that mediocrity. As such should this fall over the US will lose a hell of a lot more. Considering that the UAE is now BRICS, there is a chance that Microsoft (and a decent one) that Microsoft will go into its Delay, Blame and Miscommunication protocols. On the other hand I know NOTHING about either the Chinese or the American chip in question. The better setting is that UAE’s Falcon and Meta’s Llama, have made their code publicly available for anyone to use. As such that would imply the better creation of traction with the population. We are also given “Al Bannai said he was optimistic about Falcon 2’s performance and that they were working on “Falcon 3 generation”” In the end this was the first I heard about the Falcon, so we will be getting a lot more soon enough and I should look into the TII and what else they have cooking. You see “a vision-to-language model that can generate a text description of an uploaded image” has added bonus regarding yesterday’s blog. A simple scan of the boarding pass, or luggage tag could imply that booking a new tourist could be done in seconds. I have never been able to check into a hotel in under 5-10 minutes. Take that amount and multiply it by 53 million. That is an annual saving of 505 years. And that is only one country. That and a few other blogs I have written about shows you the essential need to upgrade tourist systems. The question. Then becomes whether such a system will have an Arabic setting and the UAE will have a system that benefits the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Indonesia. All places with growing tourism at present. That is a setting not to be ignored. And the west? Well that remains the question, they will see the benefit of upgrading son enough and when Hilton, Marriott, Hyatt and others see that time benefit, they will all come on board regardless of where that chip originated. 

Time will tell who wins that caper in the end, because the $1.5 billion investment doesn’t last long when you are confronted with Delay, Blame and Miscommunication tactics (if that happens). 

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It’s a WOW.

There was something unreal about the news I saw in several sources. The Emirates have posted record revenue boosts. The article (source Reuters) gives us “Dubai’s Emirates airline on Monday reported full-year profit up more than 60% at 17.23 billion dirhams ($4.69 billion), comfortably beating the previous year’s 10.6 billion dirhams” 

We can ‘deduce’ from that that they almost beat their last year target by 60%, that amounts to something. Because of some options in Dubai and Abu Dhabi I tend to keep an eye on anything UAE, so this was a whopper of an achievement. Then we get the additional “The state-owned airline will pay its staff a bonus equivalent to 20 weeks’ salary” which is big. I never recall BA or KLM doing anything like it, or Air France for that matter. Good people is about keeping them happy and the prospect of 20 weeks of vacation does just that. Your quality of life goes up. Take that with a previous article I mentioned about the recruitment drive that they have going implies that the run on Emirati jobs will increase rather dramatically. Now in light of Dubai Airport where everything is large, smooth and well catered to implies that it should drive tourism even further. Dubai is already one of the largest airports in the world, currently number 2 after Atlanta Georgia, but that will not last long. There is a new wave happening and I reckon that when they upgrade their Customer Service Systems (my speculation) the formula changes even further. Consider that arrival in Dubai also triggers the Hotel, so they know that you are coming, taking one queue partially away from you. We see all these software vendor scream AI whilst bullying you into installing add-ons (Google), or Advertising you to death (Microsoft) and they probably never considered to look at the foundations of Customer Care in tourism and travel. Weird isn’t it? 

A stage where some think “it is part of the journey, part of the pain”, and no one considered that this pain could be dealt with. Should the UAE and optionally Saudi Arabia deal with that pain places like France, UK, EU and USA will have a much larger issue. It isn’t that their sights aren’t worth seeing. It becomes a setting where it takes a lot more effort to see them. The first hurdle for any tourist. And it is a simple setting of one hand feeding the other. In 5 years the tourist picture will look very different. I wonder when some will catch on to what Emirates is currently achieving. 

 

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Wall, writing, you know

Before we go into details, you need to be aware of something. On the 19th of November 2023 I wrote “America has been in denial of too much we see that their ‘friends’ are reevaluating their options and there is now an optional case that Japan made the first move.” It was in the story ‘Speculating towards something?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/11/19/speculating-towards-something/) it was not the first time and not the only time I warned of that danger and now, the Associated press gives us (at https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-american-allies-worry-us-growing-less-dependable-whether-trump-or-biden-wins/b29bc0ac-3d1a-47b4-89dc-dad1de8b6ec9) ‘American allies worry US growing less dependable, whether Trump or Biden wins’, so the Associated press came to the conclusion 90 minutes ago what I saw coming almost 3 months ago. And you think you are getting informed by the press? So when we are given a quote by Donald Trump “He said at a rally on Saturday that, as president, he’d warned NATO allies he would encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to countries that didn’t pay their way in the alliance.” I feel decently certain that at least 2 European nations are contemplating an alliance with Beijing, if not to keep Russia out, it would be to save whatever they can from their economy. And the setting is not small. With STC (Saudi Telecom Company) now set to be the largest 5G player and since last year the largest shareholder of Telefonica (Spain), their markers are ready to show themselves as the primary force in the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, southern Europe and soon the rest of Europe. This wasn’t news, it wasn’t groundbreaking it was meant to be and as America loses more and more ground, Huawei is about to get a lot more. In addition we now see ‘Saudi Arabia’s World Defense Show ends with 61 orders worth $6.9 bln’ this matters because several of these orders aren’t going to America. South Africa’s HENSOLDT GEW, Spain’s Rheinmetall Expal, Bosnia Igman Company, Korea’s Poongsan Corporation, Qudra Industrial Company, Fahad International Company were some of the lucky ones. Several are under wraps, so I have no idea where they ended, but I have a nagging feeling that China got some too. What I predicted is coming to fruition. America is losing more and more commercial deals. Now that the US debt has surpassed $34,000,000,000,000 they lose more and more contracts and the telecom one is the killer. It allows Huawei for its vindication all whilst those supporting America’s baseless accusations are now entering empty space, no deals in front, only a vague ‘we’ll get back to you’. So how is that adding up? Well those who were ready to smear the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will not be held on hold and that is a lot more than you think. The fact that BRICS nations are now also getting orders and the option to prove themselves implies that BRICS is about to become (or already is) the place to be between now and 2028. And all this could have been prevented for well over 5 years. 

So whilst Thomas Gift, director of the Centre on US Politics at University College London states that the world is about to become “a multipolar planet in which the United States is no longer “the indisputable world superpower”.” The truth is a lot less nice. The new powers are China, India,  Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These nations aren’t just carpeting on the side of the road. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are just about the hottest tickets in tourism. Another income stream dwindling down for America and Europe. As such the writing was on the walls and Rembrandt painted that one in 1635. 

So now we have a new setting (as I personally see it), is it because the associated press finally found out the setting I saw months ago, or is it because they can no longer get around this setting. And when you consider the  chance that it is option two, how useless has the press become? When was vying for the digital dollar journalism? 

And all that is before Donald Trump was foolish enough to piss of his NATO allies. It sets the stage of NATO abandoning America and that opens up other paths for President Xi. Not sure if he would act on them, but I feel certain that Khan Chen Yixin (you gotta respect the old titles) from the Ministry of State Security is probably seeing opportunities here. How this pans out? I reckon we can all make guesses, but Spain and Germany are most likely to fold first. France will definitely be one of the last players to leave America, but as the others gain economic options France might not have a choice in the matter. 

So how wrong am I?
Yes, that remains the setting. I was proven correct months ago, but that does not make it all true. Yet the telecom moves are out in the open and I wrote about that too and Huawei has options now and there Germany might seek unity (partnership) with STC sooner rather then later opening Europe to Saudi Arabian telecom options and all that gives Huawei an advantage (for now). The China part remains debatable, but there is enough out there to show I might not be completely wrong. Now add the predictions that some IT brand is losing chunks to Tencent as will some other players in social media and now see the redrawn map of nations with new streams all whilst American companies are losing out on ten to twenty billion taxable dollars and consider that America is facing between 68 and 136 billion in interest in 2024. In 2023 America collected $4.44 trillion and they couldn’t make the budget fit and now they are down an additional 100 billion and revenue streams are slowing down. When BRICS nations start selling the US bonds they have the damage is almost complete. This wasn’t rocket science, you could get there with an abacus, no silicon chip required.

Enjoy your day whilst I am heading towards Monday breakfast soon. 

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That one sided conversation

We all have them, we tend to have them with ourselves. We see things, at time we extrapolate and we come to singular conclusions. I did too. You see, ever since we have been treated to Pretty Woman (1990) we al wanted to see Rodeo drive, we wanted to see the shops and during the first covid we all took that option and had a look. However, most of us felt slightly betrayed. The view was not what we expected and today I looked at three other YouTube videos. The bulk is concentrated on the block surrounded the via Rodeo. The shops seem empty, some shops show nothing outside (or very little) and Rodeo drive is diminished to a crowd of tourists and vloggers with here and there a person quickly walking to or from their jobs. The other side is that Dubai has the mall of the emirates, the Nakheel mall that are on par with Rodeo drive and the Dubai Mall outshines Rodeo drive by a lot. And you might wonder why Dubai is such a sought after destination? The Americans let things slip all over the place and the turning point is just about here. I reckon it is already here for Las Vegas and as we see what tranquility, cleanliness and amazing views we get from these malls, as well as malls in Riyadh and you wonder why. London might have Harrods and it is amazing, but London is showing additional issues making Harrods and the streets surrounding it unsafe for tourists and shoppers. The downfall will be harsh and it is getting worse. The malls in the UAE and KSA have options towards driving engagement, making these places even more appealing. Places like Rodeo Drive and London have waited too long and there is a clear indication that their revenues cannot be maintained and the solution was online (my blog) well over two years ago. It was creating engagement. Engagement is only working if you have a population that you can serve and that is missing outside the middle east. Where was the Rodeo drive diner, preferably filled with people? Where were the real shoppers? They might show revenue for now, but when did we see a real stage of physical versus online revenue? In the Dubai mall I see shops and well over 75% show shopping and buying people during the YouTube pass. People eating, people drinking, people walking (not vlogging) dozens of eateries and many of them filled with people. The vlogging and posing women on via rodeo aren’t showing too much shopping, are they? Now, lets be clear. I could be wrong, but I feel certain I am not. I warned about creating engagement, they did nothing. I warned about creating awareness and too little was done. Now we see things changing. Even the Eaton Centre Mall in Toronto shows more live and living shoppers than Rodeo drive does, so how’s that for leaving it in the middle east? I get the distinct feeling that should Riyadh and Dubai embrace engagement, the impact on London, Paris, Amsterdam, New York and Los Angeles will be felt to a much larger degree. The equation was not a mystery, it was simple and it has been simple for over a decade. The customers expect more and too many places aren’t showing any. Engagement was key in this and it was ignored. The moment some of the jewellers in Dubai show the engagement solutions I had thought up the change will be close to immediate a race in time will happen. Oh, I almost forgot about Monaco. They are good for now, but they too need to embrace an engaging nature. They recorded 218,400 tourists and they are not doing bad, but the idea is to address this before it turns bad and so far they (seemingly) haven’t done enough. The dozen of hot women and fast cars videos seem nice, but one video tells it nearly all. Monaco has a lot more to offer and videos clearly show this, but when the  numbers dwindle the act of engagement is shoddy and optionally too late. These solutions tend to work when there is too much to see, too much to do and too many places left that alone for too long. Optionally they relied on the wrong numbers and the wrong stories, but this is pure speculation from my side.

Consider that the Dubai Mall has all the best brands of the world, all the sought after brands and articles for purchase and they are a zero tax nation. You still think that my feel is wrong? Some people travel to Dubai just to get the new iPhone at 0% taxation. If you are willing to do that, the rest seems easy to place and engaging your customers becomes a dream ride to keep revenues up. Oh, and here (unlike in London) you can buy a watch and walk safely home. So this might be one sided, but I am leaving you with enough pointers that you can verify for yourself.

In a one sided conversation, the best you can hope for is for someone else to listen (or read), I leave it up to you to decide.

75 minutes to Sunday for me. Have fun.

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Those happy dreams

We all have them and I just had mine (not the one with Laura Vandervoort). The dream started with me attending some gameshow with Amazon bigwigs. I personally handed Phil Spencer a gold inlaid wooden spoon with the message that I try to keep my word. That morning Amazon with the Luna surpassed 75 million consoles (plus subscriptions) sold, Microsoft is now deal last in the gaming industry (nice achievement for the strongest console in the world), apparently big hardware isn’t everything. But the dream moved on, I was talking to His Excellency Ahmed Al-Khateeb, Minister of tourism for Saudi Arabia. 

I was explaining to him (and to myself) a new approach to customer service solutions and I called it the Complete Customer Service Solution System (C2S3 for short). The image is more for myself so I can recall it later. A complete system based on foundations of Nice CX One but with a massive difference, the organisations were no longer central here, they are still the centre or axial in it all, but the central setting becomes the tourist. A system no one ever considered (or off hand rejected), but in 2025-2030 the tourist, the customer needs to be the central hub in everything. Places like Saudi Arabia and the UAE need an evolved customer solution system because that is how they remain top player. The larger players (like Hilton and Marriott) will get on board fast, because they will see the benefit there, then the them parks and soon thereafter they all want to join such a system and in the cloud you can find a person fast. You see, the biggest drain on any vacation is time loss, people take it for granted, but what happens when one or two players throw that overboard and redo the whole thing? What happens when the total vacation has 0.1% logistics at best? You go through the mill in the Airport, at the hotel, at attractions, at resorts. So what if the airport is the start, but it is replicated to other places as soon as you go through gate one? What happens when you are in a new place and you do not get lost, because the tag you have tells you where you are and where you are supposed to go? Now consider that around the world, it is estimated that over one million young people are reported missing every year. Don’t be afraid, will over 95% is found within a day. Now consider this new system where a child is found within the hour, optionally quicker. The loss of stress in almost unimaginable. And it is not merely loss that is removed. It is that places will hand out badges with RFID, the RFID records your achievements and records what you have done, so the tourist will have a record on him that he can look at. 2 days of skiing, 12 slopes, they keep a progression record and a record of places. In Japan they have a booklet where you can stamp where you have been and every place has its own stamp. Now consider that digital record, connect that to a digital library and the tourist can make a small photo album with their own images and insert their digital records of places they have visited. They can make it anywhere in the world and it can remain private. A system where the foundation is Arrival and Departure, it does not matter where you go from there. You could visit as a family the Almasaa Cafe in Riyadh, wouldn’t it be nice to insert a digital sticker in your album when you were there with personal pictures? The list goes on and a system like that isn’t build overnight, but it has the merit that for once the tourist is the centrepiece of it all (some claim that, but it is their sales system). A setting where the customer solution is build and designed around the customer. In 43 years I have never seen such a system, have you? 

Now that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are about to be the pole position players in tourism, such a system would solve several items. They would also imply that they are about to stay at the top position until others catch on, and after the SEC blunder I saw yesterday some players will be behind these two players for years to come. 

Just a thought, enjoy Friday in 24 hours.

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The other way contemplation

We do that sometimes. However, we do not do it enough and I am no exception. You see I have been looking into tourism and other hospitality data for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It pushed me to suddenly set the whole kit and caboodle in a topsy turvy setting. Not because I wanted to, but because it started to make sense that way. The more I saw internationally the more it made sense to turn it around.

In this there are a few players NICE was in pole position, but HAMAS pretty much made that a no-go. So that left the larger players like Alvaria and Avaya and none of them are ready and they need to get ready now.

Why now?
Dubai international airport will become the largest player on the planet this year. This means that to a larger degree hotels, convention centres and attractions also need to get ready. You only get one chance to make a first impression and so far these two players have done well. 

Yet I believe (unsupported by facts) that these two players took a page from American books and that makes them sales organisations. The changing setting over the next 10 years require them to be service minded and take a much larger page from the DISC system requiring a much higher page from the settings of integrity and stability. Support, contact centres and call centres depend on these two settings. I reckon that within 5 years too many American firms will have larger issues and staff issues is not the first on my mind. As such players like Alvaria and Avaya need to invest in setting their support systems in the UAE (Abu Dhabi makes the most sense when it comes to cost) but when it is working they will also need a station in Riyadh. 

Why?
We see the line, NEOM and Mukaab in Saudi Arabia. We see the growth of Dubai and both are about to boil over on tourists and that requires a massive call centre. Now, if it was merely one there wouldn’t be a big issue. Yet the station of all this is changing and I reckon that software development will change too. As such, how many native Arabic systems do you know? I reckon none, they would be niche and very rare. Yet the larger station for tourism becomes Egypt, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates and now that setting starts making sense. A Arabic first setting with English (and others like German, French and Italian) as a second language. That is not easily done and as such you need development in one of these places (starting in the UAE makes more sense). Beyond that it would still be some version of C with Java but set to Arabic settings. You will all cry foul and American developers will rely on BS shouts but the setting through BRICS in the middle east is changing and having a call centre in India will not cut it. Lets put it in another way. When you are risking millions (a lot of them) do you really want to rely on an Indian call centre with optional hardware and communication issues? 

There needs to be a presence there and so far none of them are catching on (I checked their career pages).  And when we get to 2027 and people are starting to figure out that more needed to be done there they are too late, the early work gets the business.

What’s in play?
The Line will host to 9,000,000 people (when it is complete), Sindalah is expected to have 2400 visitors a day by 2028 and Trojena for which $500,000,000,000 is reserved. That list of projects goes on for some time. Then there is the Mukaab that will house 7,000,000 people doubling the population of Riyadh. When you combine these there will be a massive shift towards service oriented solutions. And as far as I can tell at present only NICE was close to ready for that. That was before UAE with the largest airport on the planet came into play and their tourism is making strides requiring all kinds of service oriented solutions and they all better be talking to each other. When you consider all that a native Arabic solution starts making sense and even as EU and American players are in denial, their time is up and I reckon that the Chinese developers are already on that page (for other reasons) and it suddenly dawned on me that a native Arabic solution takes most of the hackers out of the equation. It might be C (or C#) and Java, but on an Arabic setting most of them won’t know what they are looking at and that is an additional security for the Arabic solution.

And when it is all added to a subtotal my view will start making sense. It is not out of the blue, I have been involved with customer care and customer support since 1988, I have seen so many systems and most of them were merely to serve sales and that time has gone. There is a reason it is called Software as a Service and not Software as a Sales-point. SaaS will be the future and predominantly as a cloud solution but there too we see differences and that is where the changes come systems will have to combine and transfer data as needed. So that a person from arriving airport to final destination home is never left out in the cold The more complete service solutions need to alter their behaviour. This goes beyond what we merely see now and KSA, UAE and Egypt would be first, but as this solution gets traction and speed the other players would want to get such a solution as well. The Marriott is merely a first stop. As the high end vacation goers will visit new places they will demand the service that the saw in the middle east and that is when the other systems collapse. They pushed these systems with additional servers additional seats but they forgot that these systems need interaction and their data settings were nowhere near ready for that. So you get people to do it (making AI claims) and watch it all come apart from almost the beginning. The Middle East is in a strong position to force creation of an Arabic solution and I reckon that there are enough millions connected to this to make the larger players jump. My vote would be for NICE, but HAMAS made that no longer an option. It is now up to the others to get ready or be passed by the player who did make that jump.

It is my view and feel free to disagree but the changes in tourism we already see happening are proving me right and when Mukaab and the Line are ready in 6-8 years they either have a solution that can take messages from 16 million people or watch the complaints section explode with messages on a near daily basis. 

Enjoy the day, it’s midweek here now.

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Just a metric?

That is at times a question and it is also at times a recognition. You see, metrics are at times just that, metics. We can sing high and low, but metrics are most of the times in a vacuum, that is until someone uses it to weave a story. You, I, we all do that. Some are clearly shown to be related, others are less so. As such the story that we see in the Khaleej Times (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/aviation/dubai-airport-could-join-100-million-passenger-club-this-year) could be either (initially). You see, the ‘Dubai airport could join ‘100 million passenger club’ this year’ and for the most will sing that it is just as meaningless as them joining the mile high club. But some comedians will point out that they were alone getting there. So as such it seemed like a nice thing to achieve. I saw the airport on YouTube and it does look impressive. 

So, when you consider it the numbers in a larger context it now implies that Dubai International Airport is about to become the busiest airport in the world. Leaving Heathrow far behind it and beating by a fair margin New York, Los Angeles and several other airports behind them which they should have been competing against. They are about to overtake them all. In 2022 they were fifth, they are about to get pole position in airport traffic. This implies that this airport deals with 11,415 passengers EVERY HOUR, that is some achievement, especially as Toronto Pearson International Airport (in 29th position) can’t seem to get anything right at the moment. These two metrics matter because this implies that Dubai is getting things done right and there is a connected metric. You see, I wrote about tourism (Saudi Arabia and UAE alike) and now we see a new metric. When you consider that many can only spend their holiday funds once, that a slice who are going to Dubai will not be able to go anywhere else. As such these other places will lose some visitors and that results in lower revenue in those places. I made mention of that a few days ago, but now you see a connected metric. For whatever reason these people have decided on Dubai (and the UAE) that is the underlying metric that should not be ignored. 

And the speeches are also setting the new stage that they are ready to receive 20% more. Yes, all nations will make presentations and the UAE is no different than other nations in that regard. Yet the larger station is that Dubai has a growing population for tourism. It has more options for tourism than many other nations and when you add Abu Dhabi and the sports they both hold, the appeal start making sense. People just want a nice time. They want a place where they can relax and Dubai is one of the places that delivers. Those who want to play hard go to a ditch (massively drunk) in Las Vegas, those who want to have a great time, are now deciding to give Dubai a try and the more it delivers the faster that tourism part grows. Now compare that to waiting lines. Escape from the Gringotts (Harry Potter Orlando) 45-120 minutes and some times at Disney (Orlando and Paris) are close to that horrendous. So when you can select a place with a lot less waiting times I could not see any clear numbers on Warner Brothers Abu Dhabi, but several sources claim you can see the entire WB park in a day. 

Now consider all the other places these two locations have and also consider Deep Dive Dubai (not really for the young tourists) and you end up going to a place with the most amazing and most unique diving experience that you cannot get anywhere else in the world. So others want to think this is a fab, a fashion moment? The world stood still and now others are taking charge to offer what people might like. I use the word ‘might’ because the consumer is a fickle person with no real destination in mind. Yet, as I see it. Dubai with its malls, its theme parks, even a skating rink and two Hockey teams (the real hockey on solid water) and now a growing football offering. It seems that they are doing everything right and the fact that they are about to break the 100,000,000 served passengers a year line is a pretty good indicator that they are doing it all very  right.

Enjoy the day and if you go to Deep Dive Dubai be nice to yourself and do not watch Jaws before the dive.

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A strange evolving setting

I saw the article last night (really really early this morning) and it gave me something to think about. The article (at https://www.deccanherald.com/business/economy/with-russian-oil-imports-falling-india-turns-to-saudi-arabia-2832708) comes from Deccan Herald. I do not know them, but it is an Indian paper. The west doesn’t seem to have this. So lets look at what is weird. 

It starts with “at least five cargoes of the sweet Sokol variant heading to other locations, data from vessel tracking agencies showed.” Then there is “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” so whilst we see that imports of Saudi oil, rose by about 4 per cent, Russian oil declined by 22%, the numbers do not add up. I personally believe that Russia is in more trouble then they are letting on. I personally believe that a chunk of that oil is going to Iran to pay for drones. Iran might have oil, but it is embargoed, Russian oil is not and they can make transfer sales and fill their coffers up that way. Now, all this needs to be taken lightly, because there is only one source and I am speculating of that. Consider the deal Russian suppliers had with India. Also consider that by late July 2023, Iran had sent at least 400 Shahed and Mohajer series drones to Russia. That is close to $20 million, per $60 a barrel that is a whole lot of oil and the fact that India is getting less implies (implies is not a fact) that Russia has more than one issue at present. The Shahed drones are running out, more are needed and Russia (through several sources) are lacking in capabilities to get their own drones to the front. This all adds up that Russia has increasing issues to maintain their battlefronts, to maintain their Russian oil supplies and to maintain their manufacturing facilities. Napoleon lost with a lot less problems.

So whilst Saudi Arabia is seeing more revenue from their oil stocks, the question is how long that happens. It is not on Saudi Arabia, but once it is shown that Russia is lacking in a few ways the larger station comes that Russia will be fighting internal and external wars. 

So how right am I?
That remains the larger question. If any of the presented facts through sources is wrong, the entire domino wall comes tumbling down. None of this could be verified and the fact that only the Deccan Herald had this is also a point for debate. There are differences between the data of Kpler and Vortexa and that is fine. But the stage where Russia is delivering 22% less whilst there are implied reasons and none of this backed up by facts, together with the one mention of China with “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” makes me think that there is more going on and somehow someone paid for all those drones, Iran doesn’t give these toys away. 

So there is a stage where merely some of it could be right, but which part? 

In addition to Yesterday
Yesterday I talked about tourism. What I failed to mention is that there was data on the UAE. Reuters gave it 4 days ago (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uaes-abu-dhabi-sees-non-oil-gdp-growth-77-q3-2023-statement-2023-12-29/), I missed it.  There we see ‘UAE’s Abu Dhabi sees non-oil GDP growth of 7.7% in Q3 2023 -statement’. This is huge and it is non-oil growth. Now, this is not merely tourism, this is on more sides, but tourism will be taking a chunk of this. Poland with 1.4% growth is the biggest in the EU last year. This implies that the United Arab Emirates outperformed all EU nations by well over 500%. That is massive. Now, comparing GDP’s is unbalanced and incorrect, I get that. However, these settings imply that tourism in the US and EU are taking a serious dive in 2024. We can debate that this is merely a hiccup, or that it is nothing, a mere blip on the radar. But in light of their faltering GDP and places like Greece, Spain, Italy, London, Paris, New York and Florida need tourism these blips could have severe impacts in these places. If continued there is every chance that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will get access to $25-$30 billion and other places do not. Do you still think it is a little hiccup? Even when we see “Florida visitors contributed $101.9 billion to Florida’s economy and supported over 1.7 million Florida jobs (2021)” now consider that to be 5% less. How many jobs will go south? The European nations cannot even consider losing that much, it would be like the impact of Greek tourism (2002-2008) but now over three nations. That impact will be seen. 

So how accurate is this?
It is not. The reported numbers from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are, but how it affects others is not directly seen and can only be speculated on. What is clear that money spend there will not be spend anywhere else and that implies well over 25 billion lost to other places. How much each is impacted remains a guess. 

So enjoy the day and consider that special deals this summer will be all over Europe and America, so you might get a decently prized vacation this year.

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