Tag Archives: Middle East

August 8, 2026 · 02:10

Disaster through media

That is how I see it, it is not that they are wrong because as I see it, it fits directly in the views of a terrorist state and that directly hits towards their target. So what am I talking about? It is the article that the Guardian launched about an hour ago (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/07/iran-war-trump-midterm-ballot) where we see ‘Iran plots to deal Trump a blow in midterms by keeping him entangled in war’, so whilst we saw again and again that a deal was coming through soon, which I always doubted, we now see this and with “Tehran has set out a protracted negotiating timetable designed to keep Donald Trump embroiled in the Iran conflict until the midterm elections, in the hope of inflicting the same ruinous blow on his presidency as Jimmy Carter suffered over the 1979-81 US embassy hostage crisis. For many inside Iran, inflicting meaningful revenge on Trump is a legitimate and self-standing war aim, reflected in the mood of those attending the funeral of the supreme leader Ali Khamenei where demands for retribution were ubiquitous.” The move makes perfect sense and I think that this will be the case. But we also saw about hour ago (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/7/saudi-arabia-pakistan-and-turkiye-sign-defence-deal-amid-regional-turmoil) that Al Jazeera gave us ‘Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye sign defence deal amid regional turmoil’ as such Iran is in a bind because these three will attack Iran if any of them is attacked. This leaves me with two thoughts. The first one (of a humorous nature) is that this might be the first time in history where Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey and Israel have the same enemy, as such walking the streets of Tehran might be massively dangerous now. The other thought is that this puts the UAE standing alone and there is every chance that Iran will temper its false rage on the UAE, which is not a good thing. I feel better that I basically gave my military IP away to the UAE as well. Perhaps they can use it to sink the Iranian navy (it was a prototype, so it is not usable instantly). But this setting is now evolving, because the Guardian is also leaving us with “But the focus on the midterms became more obvious this week when the deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, told the official IRNA news agency that after agreeing a route for commercial shipping through the strait of Hormuz, it would take two to four months to reach the second phase of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme. The original plan – to commence the nuclear phase of the talks within 30 days of signing June’s memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the US – had been jettisoned by the Trump administration, Gharibabadi said. To get to that second stage, he laid out an obstacle course including the lifting of sanctions, the end of the US blockade of Iranian ports, the unfreezing of Iranian assets and new commitments on non-belligerence in a process that could last well beyond the midterms.” It also came to me yesterday as I wrote “Which beckons the setting for the midterm, because the military has its own share of democrats and when even one comes across with the actual numbers of all the stockpiles then no longer have, it is the opinion of this small, useless, humble blogger that the Midterms are set to the ‘inaccuracies’ surrounding those statements. A political deal done and it started with the actions surrounding February 28th 2026 and it wasn’t even a leap year.” (see previous article) and I wrote that story 10 hours ago, so I got to the setting of the midterms before the Guardian did, being it for different reasons. And all this gives us that either the United States uses what missiles they have to give Iran a one way ticket to the stone age, as such President Trump has a massive problem and if social media is to be believed, the setting of President Trump comes with prison time after he loses the Midterms. I have no clue if that could even be achieved, but that setting might be a disturbing one. Not for me, he has been massively nasty to Canada, so he would be getting what he deserved.

But as I see it the dangers to the UAE remains and I expect that they have no intent being the target of Iran any longer. As such I agree with the Guardian who gives us “From this perspective, the outcome of this war will not be played out on the battlefield, but at the ballot box. The agency suggested the outcome could affect the course of American domestic and foreign policy for years to come.” And we can all agree with that, because no matter how you see it, the worst case scenario is that Democrats start being nice to Iran, something that is globally unacceptable, still I have no interest looking into the mucky waters called American politics. And that reflecting pool will have its own set of disasters bound by time. So when we look at the end of the Guardian Article, we see “The bigger question is what Iran itself wants to achieve. Agreeing to keep the dispute simmering until November is not an answer to that question – one that Iranians are better at debating than resolving. Pezeshkian, working in alliance with Mohammad Ghalibaf, the chief negotiator, repeatedly says he does not want endless war, and insists that almost all the supreme national security council concur. He still has faith in the MoU, saying it should be the cornerstone of Iran’s foreign policy. But the conservative newspaper Kayhan describes the memorandum as worthless since the US always breaks its commitments. “Accordingly, officials should know that the strait of Hormuz is not a bargaining chip and should not be opened as a passage for America,” it said.”“ The only part I see happening is that price of oil will remain high and as I see it, it will not decrease nowhere near the midterms. That is a setting that the ‘speeches’ of President Trump also needs to bring him and I feel decently safe that the teleprompter will fail and President Trump will state that this was all a conspiracy theory (my turn to make a funny, Prime Minister Carney).

But the stage is not resolved, because as I see it (using the Al Jazeera article) where we see “The conflict has imperilled Saudi Arabia’s oil exports and ambitious development plans, and raises big questions about the reliability of its longstanding US security umbrella. While Turkiye and Pakistan have avoided significant direct attacks, both are anxious to calm regional conflicts that threaten their security and economies. The deal, named the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement”, follows nearly a year of negotiations. Sealing the agreement in Mecca, the holiest site in Islam, adds symbolic heft to a pact that builds on longstanding bilateral military ties.” As such we see the this deal took the better part of a year to set, which means that this started all before the strikes on Iran started and that is good for the nations, but in that same setting it implies that they have had enough of Iran and I wrote about in on the second of June with “which was based on a 2019 idea on stopping Iran. With blocked harbours Iran becomes the isolated party others needed it to be” (in my article ‘Defeated by the timeline’) since then I added a few military IP’s to my arsenal, because we all have to remains creative at times. But it kinda shows that the UAE needs to evolve its military tactics and not always in a diplomatic way. Because the 537 ballistic missiles and 26 cruise missiles are evidence to that setting and there is a decent chance that the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait were all attacked in the near future and as Iran is a cowardly terrorist state, these nations will face more attacks. The “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” are likely to keep three nations decently safe, the others might not be that lucky and that requires attention as well. And as I see it, they should not face attacks for the next 12 weeks, because Iran will suddenly play the little crying girl when the Trump danger has been settled and I don’t think that being nice to Iran is going to be an option before 2028, but that is merely me thinking and I think that enough gulf states are on the same page I am currently on. Yet this is not all, Al Jazeera raised a decent part with “Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid, reporting from the Qatari capital, Doha, said the pact “essentially puts three of the largest Muslim populations together”, marking the beginning of a “different security architecture” in the region.” It might make a large difference, but personally I would have liked that the UAE was included in that deal and with that I possibly show my complete unawareness of Muslim politics, but that might be my weakness in all of this as I am not Muslim. So to all a great day and I am (alas) still 300 minutes away from breakfast.

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August 7, 2026 · 14:49

By presidential appointment

This is a situation that happens, it usually doesn’t intent on that president making it happen against his will, but here we go. This morning I saw an article by the BBC that made me giggle. It was (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy8mjd19xm7o) where we see ‘Trump denies US weapons shortage and says information ‘leakers’ being ‘hunted down’’ So what gives? Well, first lets take a look at a few categories. You see a ‘leaker’ gives us “a person who gives secret or private information to the public or to news reporters without permission.” We then get “Whistleblower: Someone inside a government, military group, or private company who exposes hidden or illegal actions” but the most critical setting is that this person wasn’t called ‘liable’, ‘a fraud’ or a few other settings. President Trump called that person(s) was called “suspected of leaking information” the implies that the numbers might be right on. In addition we see “The U.S. has massive amounts of ‘munitions,’ especially of certain types”, so what types? We see “The US had over 3,000 Tomahawks before the Iran war” and “The stockpile could be back to 3,000 by 2031” and the chart it gives is from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. With these numbers are based on “Figures based on requests made in 2026/27 US military budget but not yet passed” this is just the numbers of the tomahawk, as stated 1000 have apparently been fired, I cannot vouch for that, but I am willing to go with these numbers and that doesn’t mean that there is a shortage, but this clambake has cause the United States to fire one third of its missiles, which is another problem. 

So then we get that “Trump posted on Thursday morning. “Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the US as needed.”” This is contrary to what I saw, because as we are given that the replenishment of the Tomahawk will take 6 years, that flies against the statement of the president. So then we are given “Trump and the Pentagon face mounting questions about the state of the military’s arsenal, with the war now in its sixth month and a peace deal remaining elusive. Iran responded to reports of shrinking US supplies by saying its locally produced weapons gave it the ability to respond to “any threat”.” This is funny, because the Pentagon is facing questions on its arsenal and I gave Saudi Arabia and the UAE ‘ideas’ that could do parts at 2.7% of the current cost. In addition to this I came up with one additional idea that could ‘scuttle’ its navy (including submarines) with little effort, no missiles required. Merely using the achilles heel of these forces. 

Then we get “CBS News, the BBC’s US partner, reported the US has gone through much of its global stockpile of long-range precision missiles during the war, citing two unnamed sources with direct knowledge of the subject.” As well as “Meanwhile, the Washington Post reported on Wednesday evening that Trump had confronted Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth last week over a possible weapons shortfall, also citing unnamed sources. The BBC has not confirmed the report.” Which implies that other weapons are depleted. I would gather that there is a paper trail (but I never cared for that), but there is something in all this and it is attuned by watching the words of the president and seeing how he ‘misdirects’ the setting of “large amounts are being manufactured” as I see it, it all sounds correct (and pretty dicey), but that is what 40 claims of victory gets you, you need to mull over your words because any proven lie will hurt you in the midterms (as I see it). So then we get ““The ‘leakers’ of these treasonous statements are being hunted down,” Trump said in the post on Truth Social. “Long term jail sentences will be sought!”

He directly addressed the Washington Post’s story in a later post, saying: “I really believe their fake ‘reporting’ is treasonous!”” Again we see the word ‘leaker’ which implies that the shortages are apparently real and it comes not from the ‘leaker’ but from the president of the United States. So we now see a shortage by presidential appointment, sound fair, doesn’t it? 

But then we get a difference. It is seen at “Using publicly available data, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a national security think tank, estimated that by the end of July, the US had between 759 and 827 Patriot missiles left – about a third of the 2,330 available before the conflict began.” So did anyone ask the exact numbers of the patriot missile? We saw the Tomahawk chart, but did anyone give us the patriot chart? How many are made a day? Where are they coming from? And the Guardian last week told us ‘Ukraine war briefing: Trump says he is ‘not sure’ about letting Ukraine build Patriot missiles’, which might be fair, but if the American numbers are so depleted, seeing up a Ukrainian missile manufacturing base, optionally in the United States, United Kingdom France or Germany to let the Ukrainians get their feet wet whilst being in somewhat control of the creation of these patriot, all whilst there is a steady stream of reinforced creation of missiles. Did they not think of that? Which comes right along with “A drone factory in Kyiv destroyed by a Russian ballistic missile was owned by a US corporation, in what appears to be the first time Moscow has targeted a US company in the conflict.” As I see it, the United States is in deep waters than we think. Because it already depleted a third of their Tomahawks and a large amount of their Patriots. I would think that they needed all the help they could get, especially if they are about to face off to that bar called Russia. But that could merely be my ‘wrongful view on the matter’ and I am not a military expert (haven’t been one in over 44 years). 

So as we get “Trump told the Wall Street Journal last month: “We have far more munitions than anyone in the world, and far more than we need.”” Which beckons the setting for the midterm, because the military has its own share of democrats and when even one comes across with the actual numbers of all the stockpiles they no longer have, it is the opinion of this small, useless, humble blogger that the Midterms are set to the ‘inaccuracies’ surrounding those statements. A political deal done and it started with the actions surrounding February 28th 2026 and it wasn’t even a leap year. 

So have a gander, mull over what I saw and consider a setting where the United States will be facing of Russia with its alleged depleted amounts of ammunition. I reckon the US will need Ukrainian reserves a lot more than the other way round and that is before we realise that this will set a new marker, A war on two fronts and I thought that was last with a Frenchman named Napoleon. How did that turn out? If only one of those 40 peace deals were true it wouldn’t be that bad, but apparently it is. 

So have a great day and now it is time to get some coffee for this decrepit body of mine.

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August 6, 2026 · 11:47

The coils are unwinding

That is a setting, it is not the stated setting, but the larger brief was already seen by me in a few ways. As such Antara News, only three hours ago, I was given ‘Indonesia, Saudi Arabia sign MoU to boost direct foreign investment’. For clarity (to some) Antara is the state owned news agency of Indonesia. And they give us “The agreement was signed on Tuesday (August 4) by Indonesian Minister of Investment and Downstreaming/Head of the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) Rosan Roeslani and Saudi Arabian Minister of Investment Fahad bin Abduljalil Al-Saif. According to Minister Rosan, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia share a close relationship built on mutual trust, respect and long-standing people-to-people ties. This partnership is now expanding into various strategic investment cooperation to generate concrete economic benefits for both nations, Rosan said in his statement on Wednesday (August 5). Between 2021 and the first half of 2026, the Ministry of Investment recorded that Saudi Arabia’s realized Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Indonesia reached US$126.2 million.” And it was no surprise as I wrote about this in my views on November 30th 2022, I saw it months before that and we see that Saudi Arabia is making its move to get to the hearts and minds of 273 million muslims. As I see it, Al Arabiya, stc tv and SBC TV will now move into a ‘new’ area and there is a lot to be had, if your explode Saudi TV interests. And I saw this almost 4 years ago. I had some IP connections to this idea, because when I have an idea I tend to mull things over. Now we see “The partnership also outlines mechanisms for private-sector consultations, joint investment promotion campaigns, expert delegation exchanges, and technical knowledge sharing. Furthermore, it serves as a platform for strengthening institutional coordination between the investment authorities of both countries.” As I see it, this implies that Huawei and Saudi telecom and broadband streaming idea are about to make a larger inroad into East Asia. I reckon that the north of Australia and its Muslim and Indonesian population might like this as well. 

So as we see the ‘investment cooperation’ take a larger intern, there is a decent chance that telecom and TV upgrades will be coming to places like Djakarta (aka Batavia), Surabaya, Bekasi, Bandung and Medan soon enough. OK, I admit that this is speculation, but so far the ideas I had are playing out just the way I envisioned. And whilst the US economy is dead set on (fake) AI and investments are spinning out of control, all whilst too many sources are giving that no return on investments are due until at least 2029, there is every consideration that the investments of Saudi Arabia are merely a year away, and with this I mean the break even point. After that it is decently pure profit and it gets better after that. With Indonesia, Pakistan has little option but to follow that wave and Saudi Arabia get the setting from Haql to Jayapura and I am guessing that Pakistan doesn’t want to be left out, so it would join that fraternity of voices. In 4 years Saudi Arabia went from  13400 km to 11,635.03 km, as I see it, Saudi Arabia is about to become the dominant voice in South East Asia, so whilst we will be getting some BS approach from the United States about how that doesn’t matter, consider that the reach of Saudi Arabia almost went from 100% of Saudi Arabia to the stage where 1000% of the Saudi voice is being reached. And that is before we consider that they can now reach half a billion Muslims, as such Al Arabiya will be wielding a considerable bat in baseball terms and slamming that ball over the equator is what matters in telecom terms. Now consider that Saudi Arabia had a MoU with Egypt in stc as well (I believe it was 2024) and now consider that Saudi Arabia can now reach from southerns EU almost to western Japan, so do you think this is mere weakness? With Huawei it will put a stopper on all the BS that the United States with their anti-China were giving and now we see how innovation works. It doesn’t go for the wannabe technology of optionally next decade, it goes for the places that everyone is overlooking tomorrow and Saudi Arabia was there from the start. Alas no coins for me, but to see innovation elevate itself whilst these so called captain of industry are marginalizing the settings they don’t care about is a joy for the eyes and the mind. 

And all this was out in the open from November 2022. I know that because I wrote about it, which is the little sidestep of any blog, it gives (written) evidence about what seemingly is, not some TV channel who belittles what they have to in some morning TV show, because that is how miscommunications start and that is where these so called captains of industry tend to hide and often it is behold the small statement “There was some level of miscommunication in this”, so that is how they get rich? Now we see that Saudi Arabia is actually gaining wealth, because all this comes with advertising according to Islamic rules (I honestly don’t know this rules), but I feel certain that it will go according to the rules Indonesia has and whilst these people are less and less impressed with western baloney, Indonesia will now be able to advertise towards population that it does want (implying Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Qatar and the UAE). All this was out in the open and as I see it, Yesterday Indonesia made the next move in achieving that (as written in Antara). So you all have a great day and consider what other revenue is lying on the floor ignored by the powers to wannabe, because it just isn’t AI.

 

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August 5, 2026 · 00:53

Did I see that correctly?

That was the feeling I had. I saw something and it conflicted what I knew. So I checked again, because I could easily be wrong. But it seems that Arabian Business (at https://www.arabianbusiness.com/politics/uae-economy-uk-trade-ties) gave me something that hit me like it was absolute news. Now, I do not really look into that side of things, because I am not with some elevated setting that I need to know. But the numbers were striking. You see ‘UAE economy built to withstand global shocks as UK trade ties top $30bn, leaders say’ was something that didn’t make sense. It was ‘supposed’ to be a mere $20.5 billion (approximately) and this is 50% more, which is fine, but at that point something has to give. So whilst we might consider the setting of “UAE leaders say the country’s diversified economy and UK trade relationship, now worth more than $30bn annually, position it for continued growth” and ““With non-oil sectors now accounting for nearly 80 percent of our economy, the UAE’s economic strength is built on strong fundamentals, global connectivity, robust institutions and the agility to adapt to a changing global landscape. These strengths position us to deepen cooperation with trusted partners such as the UK and to emerge stronger from today’s geopolitical challenges.” During the discussion, Badr Jafar, Special Envoy of the Minister of Foreign Affairs for Business and Philanthropy, said the country’s resilience reflects decades of investment in diversification, infrastructure, institutional capacity and global connectivity.” Implies that the finds were taken from somewhere else, or the UK is seemingly bumping someone else down the staircase as the expression goes. So last month we were given that the top exporters towards the UAE are: 

  • China: $64.7 billion
  • India: $37.1 billion
  • United States: $22.2 billion
  • Saudi Arabia: $18.7 billion
  • Hong Kong: $14.5 billion

The question becomes who is losing out? It could matter to know what was imported more and it might give the inclination who is not exporting less to the UAE. It would be fun to learn that there were additional costs to the United States to see them lose market value, but in all honesty I have no idea. So as we are given “Sarah Mooney, Consul General to Dubai and the Northern Emirates and HM Trade Commissioner for the Middle East and Pakistan, discussed the process following the successful conclusion of negotiations on the UK–GCC Free Trade Agreement. She said: “One year on from the launch of the UK’s Industrial Strategy, we are seeing stronger UK–UAE trade and investment ties, growing collaboration across high-growth sectors, and the successful conclusion of UK–GCC Free Trade Agreement negotiations – an important milestone that will help unlock even greater opportunities for businesses in both markets.”” And then we also see “Bradley Jones, CEO of the UAE–UK Business Council, said businesses are seeking clarity on regional developments and future opportunities. He said: “This briefing came at an important moment for our members and stakeholders. Businesses are seeking clarity on both the regional context and the opportunities ahead. The discussion underlined that the UAE’s resilience is not only reassuring in the present but is a strategically important factor for driving forward the next phase of UK–UAE growth.”

It doesn’t give anything more than the fact that the United Kingdom is doing well and achieving more business, but it does not reveal who is losing out. There is the additional thought that the UAE merely got $10 billion in additional trades giving us no losers in all of this, but my mind is giving me that this is still a clear loss to the United States and I reckon that we will soon learn more as this news is merely 15 hours old. 

It is also an indicator that trade in the UAE is resuming close to its old settings. So good luck to them and to all a great day today.

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August 4, 2026 · 00:34

Timelines of confusion

That is the setting, but before I go into this, lets recap a few articles. The first one was given to us by the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/02/trump-climbs-down-on-iran-strikes-after-saudi-alarm-and-threats-from-tehran) about a day ago we were given ‘Trump backs down on Iran strikes in expectation of ‘rapidly’ reaching a deal’ with the subtext “US president claims delay is also in response to requests from Iran and other countries in the region” with in addition “The deal would include the immediate and complete reopening of the strait and “an end to Iran’s nuclear threat”, he posted. It marked the latest climbdown from extravagant threats to pound the Islamic Republic in the months-long conflict.”

After that we get (several hours ago, at https://aje.news/mcmsi9) ‘Tehran says no current talks with US, Oman meetings ongoing’ with “Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says in regards to talks with the US, there are no plans to receive a delegation or send an Iranian one. Baghaei adds that a new Strait of Hormuz shipping route being discussed with Oman will be one path with entry and exit lanes.” As well as (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/3/trump-says-new-iran-negotiations-starting-what-we-know) ‘Trump says new Iran negotiations starting: What we know’ where we see “United States President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday that an agreement with Iran is imminent and new talks were set to begin on Monday. But at a news conference on Monday, an Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman said: “We are not going to host a delegation or be guests of a country during these days.””

These setting are giving me a speculative setting and the middle east is part of all this deception (by the United States) and it is speculative, I could very well be wrong. This is however the setting that I see and it is important to tell you this, because as I see it, the media is laden with what might be seen as inaccuracies all over the place. These is no way to tell whether this is politically inclined or even if the media is given all the parts they needed to have. There is too much confusion out there. So one more source was added and I now ad this, to give it to you. It is IranWire and I don’t believe it is correct and it is debatable what is correct and what is not. But that is what Iranians optionally read and that needs to be seen too.

The article is seen (at https://iranwire.com/en/features/155759/) where we are given ‘Is Iran Preparing for War With Saudi Arabia?’ We are given “Figures close to the Islamic Republic have asserted that “Saudi Arabia is the most significant potential target.” Furthermore, the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters warned that “companions of the United States will burn in the fires of war,” calling on Muslim nations to “reconsider their cooperation with the US.” His warning is directed squarely at Riyadh, which currently finds itself confronting the Islamic Republic and its non-state proxy network across multiple geopolitical fronts, having previously participated in military strikes targeting positions inside Iran in April.”

I am hereby calling out these lies. Saudi Arabia and the UAE never assisted or acted against Iran, Iran bombed and used drones to all the Arabian states and there was no reason to do this. They were doing it for an unknown reason (I’ll get to that) as well as ““A ground assault from Iraq in the north and Yemen in the south would finish Saudi Arabia off. Aside from its air power, which would be paralysed immediately once its airfields and air bases are targeted, Saudi Arabia has nothing else. Pakistan cannot offer meaningful assistance due to the lack of a shared land border.”” This implies that Iran is guiding Houthi terrorists to do the dirty works of Iran. It also shows that Houthi terrorists are now also operating from Iraq, whether Iraqi government forces are allowing this or that they are too incompetent to counter these assaults on Saudi Arabia remains to be seen.

So this was the time line I saw and I had already mentioned a few settings in previous blogs. So here is the speculation. The United States are about to lose whatever they have and it is in THEIR interest to see stabilization gone in the Arabian states and they are using Iran to be the play toy or their needs. I cannot make any claim to evidence, but I asked in the first eeek of march why Iran was attacking the UAE more than it was Israel. Israel was aiding the United States in all this, so Iran had a reason to attack Israel. But they attacked the UAE with a lot more drones. This never made sense, because the UAE and Saudi Arabia gave no permission for the United States to attack Iran via their territories. 

In all this I was baffled in why Iran was wasting ammunition and drones on countries that weren’t attacking them. I already had a few ideas at that time, but I had no evidence of any kind. I still don’t but when you see the lines from the United States where we see “United States President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday that an agreement with Iran is imminent and new talks were set to begin on Monday”, yet at present it is Monday 17:50 (Abu Dhabi time) and we see ‘Iran denies Trump claim that new talks will start Monday after he called off attacks’ (source: NBC). As such I have concluded that the initial thought I had yesterday when I stated “It is not enough that I succeed, all others must fail” is that what the United States is aiming for? Its biggest concern was that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE would propel forward and all these attacks on these nations have put a damper on their advances and It will take months to reset them. Is that what the United States are hoping for? But this is only possible if Iran cooperates here and Iran doesn’t like that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are making massive strides. It is possible, but it is massively speculative. I admit that and I have no evidence to support this. Now consider the clusterfuck the United States is involved in (as words go not a nice word, but it is used by the US Marines, so I grant the use of it). So as we count the settings, President Trump has claimed more than 40 times that the U.S. conflict with Iran was nearly over. All whilst I saw that Iran is still in talks with Oman about the strait of Hormuz and now Houthis both in Yemen and in Iraq are pushing for attacking ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. So, how exactly is all this won? I created solutions in the first week of march and it is now 6 months later. How is this in any way about a war? Why are refineries still pumping revenue for Iran? Why are distribution channels still operating? Did anyone in the pentagon (optionally ever) read the works of either Sun Tzu or General Carl von Clausewitz? If there is too much anti-China sentiments, they could have reverted to the lesser work of von Clausewitz. It becomes really simple. The timelines do not make sense. And I left my military post in 1982, so I might have unlearned a thing or two in 44 years. But I reckon that at present I know more on waging war than anyone in the Pentagon (I know, quite the statement, but that is what I see from over 40 declarations) and anyone who reads the messages should come to the same conclusion, even if you never served and your knowledge of armed forces is merely based on Stratego (a Dutch Jumbo Games board game). 

It irritates me that the media is not on top of all this, because both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are likely to be attacked again, there is no evidence of that, other that the IranWire article and the ‘text’ there is implying that actions are pending against Saudi Arabia. There is no way to hand any level of credibility there, but the chance is there and the acts that Houthi forces in Iraq are ready to act is there, the reliability of that is unknown to me. But with the settings we see, there are all kinds of issues and the fact that the media is glancing over this is too ridiculous for words.

I leave you with these thoughts. I cannot look at the US economy, because I have no idea whose data to trust. This US administration made all data debatable and suspicious. That is the reality of it all and the war sees to be playing in the cards of the United States, no matter what the cost for the United States is and that is actually a little scary. And I was not alone in this, Business Insider (at https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-mark-zandi-market-risk-economy-2026-8) gives us ‘A top economist says the Fed’s ‘opaque’ communication style is a serious risk to markets and the economy’ here we see ““If the Fed continues down this increasingly opaque path, a future meeting could trigger a serious market sell-off — putting the broader economy at risk,” Zandi wrote in a post on X on Sunday.” We get this from Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. So there is corroboration, but what he sees is not what I see (I am not claiming to see more, merely different parts and when someone like him says there are issues, I would be taking notice. Apart from all this, there is nothing more to say and I will leave it up to you to to see what is and what is not.

Have a great day today and if you are in Vancouver enjoy breakfast, when you are in Toronto, get ready for lunch, in Amsterdam enjoy coffee and in Abu Dhabi get ready for dinner. This all is making me hungry now, write more later.

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July 30, 2026 · 02:08

The start of isolation

That is at times a signal, at times a revelation and at times mere common sense. Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2652675) is giving us ‘GCC declares full support for Saudi measures to protect its sovereignty’ which is nice to hear. I got there over a year ago, as such it is nice to see others are following my charge (my illusional moment). You see, Arab News is giving us “The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi on Wednesday declared the Gulf states full support for all measures the Kingdom takes to protect its security and sovereignty. The secretary-general affirmed the Gulf states support for the Saudi measures and stressed the bloc’s condemnation to the drone attacks targeting the Kingdom’s oil facilities.” I myself was on that page on the 15th of September 2019 after the Abqaiq–Khurais attack. Iran was responsible, they might have played the ‘were innocent’ card and let Houthi terrorist make the claim, but the drones were too successful and the Houthi terrorists lacked the ability to be that effective. As such the IRGC was pointed to as the only viable suspect. As such it was nice for the GCC to finally see the need for Saudi Arabia be given the ‘all clear’ and that is the start of isolation for Iran. So whilst we get “Bahrain also affirmed its support for Saudi Arabia, saying the kingdom has all the right “to respond to any aggression and deter aggressors.” 

The remarks came after Saudi Arabia carried out precision strikes early Wednesday targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. The Saudi step came in line with the Kingdom’s right to self-defense, the kingdom’s defense ministry said.” So whilst we see that the member states are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, I have no idea how Oman is seeing this, but that might be the only remaining ‘fan’ Iran has left. The setting at present is that Oman has a partnership defined by active neutrality, geographic interdependence on the Strait of Hormuz, and a long history of diplomatic mediation. But as far as I see it, that is likely the only GCC fan it has left. On the upside, it is always good to have one ‘impartial’ setting in any case (should Iran actually resort to active diplomacy), but the setting is that Iran has no allies left beside the terrorist parties it fueled through decades of weapon sales, sold (as I personally see it) for $0, for jobs achieved and now they have only that left, but in all this. These parties were given that their setting would be active hostilities to Israel. The idea that they might face the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with additional attacks by the United States armed forces was something they did not expect. They were always ready for US forces in combination of Israeli forces. But the setting of Saudi forces, or better stated angry Saudi forces is a setting they were not ready for and a Saudi Arabia, that needs it safety guaranteed will resort to measures that they are not ready for. 

And that is the step that will be isolating Iran, in ways they were not ready. They made a bet that they were safe with the setting of asymmetric warfare and this is now coming to an end. Saudi Arabia is now getting the support of the entire GCC, as such Houthi terrorists will be scrambling for any hideout they can, because there won’t be any support from Iran coming their way any day soon. Iran is now in deep waters. They were hoping to get away with it a little longer, but the GCC support towards Saudi Arabia ends that train of thought. Even as we are getting ‘Houthi To Impose Toll Fees in Bab El Mandeb Strait’, I reckon that Saudi Arabia will be enforcing of zero tolerance on the toll setting by Houthi terrorists, so whilst we are given “Yemen gov’t says Houthis planning to impose fees for Red Sea transit, A minister in Yemen’s internationally recognised government on gave Wednesday” from several sources, most media sources ‘state’ that Houthis are considering this, like they had anything to say about this. As the strait of Hormuz didn’t pan out for Iran, they got their lackey to try this for the Suez role and in this setting it is likely that Egypt might give some kind of military support to keep its Suez revenue safe. And when Saudi Arabia has dealt with the Houthi threat, Iran will become the loneliest bully in history. 

Just a thought to consider in all this. But as I see it, the proclamation (can I call it that?) that the GCC stands with Saudi Arabia is a welcome setting in all this and as I see it, it will bind the hands of Iran and its terrorist allies. So, at present I am going with the phrase better late then never. 

So, have a good day and lets see what happens tomorrow, it beats reporting on the failure that Optus in Australia has become. 

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July 29, 2026 · 16:58

When good men go to war

That is what is reverberating in my mind. And I got this from ABC less then 3 hours ago. They are giving us ‘US thwarts Iran’s ‘surprise attack’ and launches strikes with Saudi Arabia against Iraq militias’ it was given to us (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-29/fighting-reignites-as-us-strikes-iran-backed-militants-in-iraq/106970590) and my initial (and later thoughts) were “Good for them” I have had enough of all these proxy settings and the fact that the IRGC (now apparently operating from Iraq) gives us “The US says it has carried out fresh air strikes in Iraq alongside Saudi Arabia, targeting Iran-backed militant groups after a wave of drone attacks on US forces. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) later said they fired several ballistic missiles at a US air base and a US military Central Command centre in Jordan, in what they described as a response to US actions against Iranian interests.” Whatever they say, it did not validate the direct attacks on Saudi Arabia using Houthi terrorists, it did not warrant the numerous attacks on the UAE and when the UAE joins the attacks, Iran Is truly done for, because at some point USA might not be able to continue, but Saudi Arabia and the UAE are next door, only small water separating them from Iran (aka the sea of Dammam). So whilst we are given a summary

  • The strikes were in response to more than 30 drone attacks directed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards over the past 72 hours, the US military said.
  • “The IRGC and its terrorist proxies must cease these attacks to avoid further US military response,” it said in a statement on Wednesday.
  • Saudi Arabia confirmed it carried out the strikes alongside the US, saying the action was in response to recent drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities.
  • Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said three oil tankers were “struck and stopped” after ignoring warnings in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.

As I saw is in the beginning of February it can now start, the closing of harbours, the destruction of railways and when these fall out of the equation, only the roads are relatively safe, but I have a solution for that too, not bombing using billions of dollars, but the more refined setting I have in mind taking out the trucks ad road at the same time and at that point Iran becomes a useless piece of junk sized at almost 650,000 square miles and why will it do then? It will cry like a little girl is my assumption on the matter. 

And as I see it, the nations of the world are out of patience with Iran, especially as fuel prices are taking another strike towards new heights. I reckon that Houthi terrorists settings will be dealt with next. That Is the process of terrorism as well. Saudi Arabia does not forget and whilst Houthi debates are settled the way they want it (bombing them for all its worth) we can see the deliberate setting that Houthis are facing then, because as I see it, they can now no longer hide in Djibouti and/or Eritrea. As I see it, these governments have a needed interest in stopping these attacks from happening from their terrains and they will sort out what they need to all on their own and I reckon that they prefer to be looking good towards the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and not really interested looking good towards a terrorist organisation. 

And in all this the setting of safety of Saudi Arabia is regained one step at a time. So whilst we were given “Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed they struck two Saudi ships as part of their campaign to disrupt the kingdom’s shipping.” And as they did this (to the best of my speculative knowledge) to appease Iranian interest, they now face not one, but at least two adversaries because the United States would want this political effect gan traction and it is highly likely that the USA will optionally also hit Houthi terrorist locations because that gets the work done and whilst the media is now ‘running’ towards a new front, the impact that the western media is now seen as too irrelevant to be of interest to nearly anyone, it would be the effect to come late to a party, so as that last guest (the western media) is now entering while desert is served (like in just desert) the opinion of all is not “How nice to see you” but a solemn “What kept you all this time” and I would personally like to hand the microphone to General Turki al-Maliki taking a much overdue jab at the western media on this. But that is merely my $0.0325 cent on the matter (that is $0.02 hit by devaluation) because as I see it, that delay has a larger setting.

So whilst SBS give us ‘Saudi Arabian forces join US in strikes on Iran-backed militants in Iraq’ we see that Al Jazeera gives us different news. You see, the headline read in Google gives us ‘Iran war live: US, Saudi forces attack Tehran-aligned groups in Iraq’ whilst the article gives us ‘US, Saudi forces attack Iraq; IRGC fires missiles at Jordan’

As such I wonder who else (optionally in Iraq is whistling Iranian music? Because the use of ‘Tehran-aligned groups in Iraq’ seems to be suspiciously specific. And as I see it, if Iran is expending into Iraqi territory, is a player like Kata’ib Hezbollah responsible for catering to the needs of the IRGC? It beckons thought as this implies that the IRGC is desperate to expend its allies to a larger degree and this comes at a price, making my prediction of hitting refineries, harbours and infrastructures 5 months ago a little more warranted, because all this will be costing Iran a pretty penny.

So whilst you can consider how right or how wrong I am, the truth of the matter is that as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is joining the USA in keeping Saudi Arabia safer the real stings are that Iraq and Yemen are facing serious repercussions on their decision to come in support of Iran against the safety or Saudi Arabia, it could become a very interesting week, because when they stop supporting Iran, Iran might actually feel boxed in enough to consider a few peace talks.

Have a great day all.

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July 22, 2026 · 03:08

The delusional presentation

That is how I felt when I read the News from ABC. There is no setting of ‘merely’ reporting. The ABC decided to forward a presentation by a terrorist. Can we blame them? I wonder. You see the news (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-20/houthis-declare-maritime-blockade-on-saudi-arabia/106938064) gives us ‘Houthis declare maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, escalating threat to energy supplies’ where we see “The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, effective immediately, targeting ships carrying Saudi exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Houthis claim they are acting in response to Saudi Arabia’s “oppressive siege” on Yemen over the past 12 years.” As I see it (slightly less diplomatic) is that the Houthi terrorists are playing the bitches of the Iranians and if Iran falls, so does their no so position of strength. As such Iran requests and like little girls they responded. My mind is racing, because at this point I have to see what more I can do to assist Saudi Arabia and create more IP to come to their aid. So whilst they think they are safe, there is the need to make it not so safe for these Houthi terrorists. So whilst we are seeing “In a statement, the Houthis military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group would enforce the blockade against its “criminal Saudi enemy”, effective immediately.” As I see it, the only criminal entity are the Houthi terrorists but that might be neither here nor there.

The question then becomes if the Houthis are working from the shores of Djibouti or Eritrea, because that might complicate matters. My personal sight on the map gives rise that they are also operating from Mayyum, which is a small Yemeni island in that strait. But what to do about it, I am almost at a loss. My designs are set to take away options. This might require personal eradication and the way terrorists work is to let others suffer for their operating ways. And that personal approach takes away time from Saudi Arabia. They might have time for now, but the operational setting s that these terrorists can play for time, whilst I am in the mood to play for eradication. The second thing is that they get supplies from somewhere, but where are they coming from and there are thoughts that they are supplied by smugglers operating from Djibouti, but I have no evidence in support of that. Im stuck in the setting to let Houthi villages burn, because that is what the faith of Houthi terrorists is set to. So, it can happen to them as well. So whilst we are given “the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said in a statement that it would respond to them with force, and also that it began implementing protection measures for its ships moving through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.” It is my opinion that more is needed. The media has procrastinated long enough, propagating lies when it suited the needs to their network in ‘support’ of share and stake holders when needed and I think it has been quite enough. 

I understand that Iran has a personal setting in all this and I cannot fault them for that, especially as they themselves played the bully car long enough, but now as Houthi children start interfering by acting as a mouthpiece for Iran, I say that we have had enough. And they are children, because Houthi movements started in 1992 and as they ‘feel important’ to come to the aid of Iran, they are pushed into the same clambake as all terrorists and as such they can be made to suffer. Consider that all this started in 1992 by by either Mohammed al-Houthi or his brother Hussein al-Houthi, as such that organisation has not been around for too long and as stated by some, the religious material included lectures by Mohammed Hussein Fadhlallah (a Lebanese Shia scholar) and Hassan Nasrallah (Secretary General of Hezbollah). So their history is drenched in Terrorist history. I did not know this until recently and I learned to seek historical settings in any eradication So when we see, Iran, Hezbollah and Houthi, is there any part of Shia Islam that does not have terrorist grounds? I am merely asking this, because the words of UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed’s warning to the West in 2017. A mere 8 years ago and he is proven right again and again and when the west (which means us) is seeing this and realizing that giving a voice to these extremists is our own undoing. When does the western media wake up? Let these media dodo’s work from the press buildings in Yemen (are there any left?) Or are they happy to vocalize the need of terrorists from their cushy chairs in London, New York, Los Angeles, Sydney. Although there is no visible support for these regional alignment for groups within that “Axis of Resistance” (which includes the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas) in Sydney, but as there are 

media connections to monitoring large-scale pro-Palestinian or anti-Israel demonstrations in Sydney’s CBD. There is some hidden support in Sydney, because that setting is fueled somewhere and these people like their media, which with the populist people racing to YouTube and TikTok is a little harder to see, but I reckon that someone might have a word with Director Burgess at some point (the big boss of the sneaky police). 

You see, we cannot do to much there, as such we need to find how their voices are propagated outside Yemen and silence these voices. I am all for a right to speak, but I don’t share that need for terrorists. And the idea is to diminish their voice as a given first. So that the media is forced to focus on things like doing so from the Yemen Press Agency (YPA), which is the Middle East’s largest international multimedia broadcast agency headquartered in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen. See how long they last. We see these anti-Semitic settings in Sydney and Melbourne, so lets evict these people to Palestine for a minimum of 2 years to a university in Palestine, Lebanon or Yemen. See how long they last there. See how their voice alter in mere weeks and they need to get by another 100 weeks. Should be fun (as fun goes). But the setting remains, take away their voices, or better stated take away access to delusional influencers who see these groups as a mealticket as they lack access and that is the more dangerous setting and taking away this will enable others to deal with these terrorists in Yemen. 

It is simple, something needs to be done, but I am uncertain to what is the best policy. I merely see an IP setting that I can wield. I had an idea, but this would be a little harsh. You see gaming is my forte. So create a survival game where people get to be a terrorist and they are on the setting to live that life. I reckon that others (the wannabe’s) will see the simplicity that their time is measured in mere hours and death is the only outcome for them. You see, as I see it, we only see people like Yahya Saree, but we do not see the 150,000 direct violent deaths and hundreds of thousands more from indirect causes like famine. So when people are faced with giving the life of these (said to be a total of approximately 375,000 killed), so one out of 375,000 gets to become someone like Yahya Saree (0.000267%), the other 99.9998% dies. No other way to show this. So when these wannabe’s play the tens of thousands of times it took them to survive merely once, what is left of their voice? Will they start accepting the futility of it all? And you do not get to blame Saudi Arabia in any of this. Houthi’s were never part of any elected setting and (as far as I can tell) this is why they went to war and supported by Iran they started the Yemeni war. Now they are staging a blockade, as I see it, they are mere children in need of idolization and they used firearms and explosives to get there. 

As I personally see it, we should support Saud Arabia in any way we can and  as ABC ends their article with “Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had threatened to use the Houthis to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as fighting between the US and Iran intensified last week.” They seemingly did the right thing, but there is debate to that in several houses and several media settings. What is a fact that Iran is playing its Houthi Terrorist card and everyone is looking at what Saudi Arabia does, all whilst we should be doing something too, we shouldn’t silence voices, but let them live with the consequence of that given voice. That is how I see Professor Mark Scott AO (chancellor Sydney Uni) should have set the marker. I understand that he doesn’t want to hold ‘young voices’ accountable, but in that process he made that place massively dangerous for the Jewish community. As I see it, He could have expelled them to a ‘friendly’ uni in Lebanon, Yemen or Palestine. Wouldn’t that be a great idea for these voices to see what life there is about?

Have a great day. I doubt it gets the support it needs but that does warrant consideration, does it not? #JustSaying

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July 18, 2026 · 02:05

Terrorists are as terrorists do

I got hit by two news pieces. The first one was the Canberra Times, which I will discus second. After that I saw the news that Sky News gives us (at https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/global-affairs/iran-tells-houthis-to-close-red-sea-gateway-if-us-hits-power-network-sources-say/news-story/e0db23cd9c0ccb4eba564a13c222be79) where we see ‘Iran tells Houthis to close Red Sea gateway if US hits power network, sources say’. So, Iran vie Houthi terrorists attacks Saudi interests when another party attacks? And we let these settings happen? Lets’ be clear, Saudi Arabia has not now, not ever allowed the United States launch attacks on Iran via their ports and harbours. As such it now becomes unacceptable and I consider it up to Saudi Arabia to do whatever it needs to do to make certain its areas are terrorist clear. As I see it, It is up to Saudi Arabia to do what it needs to do, but as I gave both the UAE and Saudi Arabia my military IP and I find it totally acceptable to use this against Houthi terrorists. As such the Port of Aden is about to become the only way in or out, handing the Yemeni authorities a new strength and as the Port of Hodeidah, Port of Mukalla, Port of Mokha, Port of Saleef, Ras Isa Marine Terminal and the Port of Nishtun are now valid targets to be closed for months at a time. As I see it, Houthi terrorists will suddenly cry for mercy when their only access port becomes Route 45 (well, it goes through Saudi Arabia, so that one is out too). But more about that later. 

You see, the news all started with the Canberra Times (at https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/9312297/houthi-leader-warns-saudi-arabia-against-escalation/) giving us ‘Houthi leader warns Saudi Arabia against escalation’ well, Saudi Arabia did nothing to escalate, it was all the United States (with support from Israel) and they escalated Iranian actions. As such pretty much the whole world will allow Saudi Arabia do what it needs to do. And I gave my IP months ago, as such closing the harbours becomes a first step. So when we see “Yemen’s Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi says all Saudi oil ‌and other vital facilities will be targets for the group’s missiles ‌and drones if Saudi Arabia escalates its involvement in the conflict.” Well, to be clear, Saudi Arabia hasn’t done this, it is just a hidden meaning of someone stopping anyone to halt the United States from attacking Iran, and they attacked ships in the strait of Hormuz. As I see it, Saudi actions are clear. They can attack any Houthi terrorist interests anywhere in Yemen, which pretty much guarantees shutting down their ports and the world will approve whatever Saudi Arabia thinks it needs to do. I don’t think Houthis terrorists have ever faced that before.  So the cry stories of those innocent Yemeni children will now go to deaf ears and as Saudi Arabia recently cleared 1,293 explosive devices in Yemen (source: Arab News) Houthi forces are about to learn what happens when the world has had enough with terrorists camouflaged threats. So whilst we see ““The real equation is ‌Sanaa airport for Riyadh airport, airports for airports, ports for ports, and blockade for blockade,” the Houthi leader said in a televised speech. Yemen has been mired in civil war for more than a decade since the Houthi rebels seized the capital Sanaa, prompting ‌a Saudi-led military intervention in 2015 in support of the internationally recognised government.” As such they camouflaged threat will be met with other settings. As Saudi Arabia retaliates I will have to revisit my IP that takes the highways out of the equation as well. It will effectively isolate Houthi terrorists in their places. So whilst Sky News gave us “Iran told Yemen’s Houthi rebels Wednesday to prepare to close the crucial Bab el Mandeb Strait — the critical shipping lane on the west side of the Arabian Peninsula— if the US strikes Iranian power plants.” There is a second setting, because this all relies on Iranian goods and when those are of the table, Houthi life will become a lot more difficult. Whatever happens, I hope the international world will give their support to Saudi Arabia to do whatever it needs to keep its places safe and secure. Because as I see it, Iranian actions shows that it has become as desperate as we have ever seen them and as Iran relies on terrorists to do their bidding, the hands of Saudi Arabia are no longer bound by international cry stories. 

There is only so much threats that we are willing to accept and Iran using terrorists against a nation who is not involved in activities against them, a nation that even denied the United States to act against from its lands, or even fly through its airspace. As such the war board will change a lot soon enough. 

How soon? That is up to Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi, but he needs to realise that the world will no longer idly stand by to these actions and I reckon that Saudi Arabia might find many nations willing to part with military hardware for Saudi Arabia in the process. 

So to all I wish you a happy lunchtime (Toronto) or dinner (Rotterdam) and I as I am still 360 minutes from breakfast I might treat myself to a cookie at present. Have a great day all.

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July 15, 2026 · 01:31

What a surprise

So, before I get you to the article, I want to reiterate my position. I did this a few times and here it matters. You see, on May 31st 2025 I wrote ‘All Dressed Up’ where I gave you ““The United States could experience a loss of $21 billion in tourism-related revenue this year if current trends continue, according to estimates by the U.S. Travel Association. According to the trade group, every 1% reduction in international tourist spending represents an annual loss of $1.8 billion for the U.S. economy. Furthermore, experts indicated that a strong U.S. dollar could be driving away international visitors.” Even though only Canada is ‘sifted’ out” I had some issues, because the numbers were seemingly giving added ‘benefits’ to the economic settings of this administration. And now we see CBC giving us (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cross-border-travel-down-dramatically-research-9.7198652) ‘Travel to the U.S. is down even more dramatically than we thought, data shows’ where we are seeing “While official Statistics Canada figures show a roughly 25 per cent decline in Canadian residents returning from the U.S. last year, cellphone data compiled by researchers at the University of Toronto’s School of Cities found that the year-over-year drop in cross-border trips was closer to 42 per cent.” Which is a nice sidestep and the University of Toronto has proven themselves more than once, so I am excepting this setting. This means that the numbers were off by over 15%, which gives my settings (and decently speculative) a new wave of reliability. So whilst we ‘accept’ the numbers we are also given “They found the decline was even more dramatic in some warm weather locales that have historically been hot spots for Canadians fleeing winter weather. In Myrtle Beach, S.C., the number of trips by Canadians was down 65 per cent year-over-year, according to the cellphone data, giving it the dubious title of the metro area with the steepest drop. In the Florida cities of Panama City, Orlando, Cape Coral, Miami and Naples, the number of Canadian visitors fell by 50 per cent or more. But cratering demand wasn’t recorded only in those sunny destinations. Trips to San Francisco, New York, Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids, Mich., Boston and other business centres have also fallen by more than half, according to the data. In fact, of the 267 U.S. metro areas analyzed by researchers, only three — Cleveland, Portland, Ore., and Gainesville, Fla. — showed an increase in visits by Canadians last year.” What a lovely way to powder a message. Canadians kept up their promise that they were sick and tired of the 51st state setting of the United States by showing a massive decline to well over 250 U.S. metro areas? That should suck to the economy of the United States and I reckon that some people in this administration long before the Tuesday, November 3 moment has come to the calendars of all American voters and as ‘they’ say, every citizen is a voter at that point. So as the USA Today gave us yesterday (at https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/13/trump-federal-control-midterm-elections/90840111007/) ‘Trump moves to tighten federal control of elections ahead of midterms’ there is a setting that the drop in tourism will have every citizen of the United States livid. So whilst we are given “The president says he’s trying to prevent cheating, but Democrats argue he’s actually putting his thumb on the scale for the GOP by trying to block Democrats from voting.” Which is likely to be a repeat from 2016 when ‘O’Reilly’s Proof That Voter Fraud Exists Was Debunked On His Own Show Four Years Ago’, it is all kids of mean that I figure on using the words of a dedicated Republican to whistle back the BS from a republican administration. And we were given “Fox News host Bill O’Reilly argued that Mitt Romney’s failure to receive any votes in the 2012 presidential election in 59 divisions in Philadelphia was evidence that widespread voter fraud exists presidential elections. This claim was investigated and proved false on O’Reilly’s show one week after the 2012 election. O’Reilly invited lawyers Kimberly Guilfoyle and Stacy Schneider to discuss the prevalence of voter fraud in presidential elections. While both Guilfoyle and Schneider agreed that voter fraud is extremely rare, O’Reilly pointed to “reports in Philadelphia that nobody voted for Romney” as proof that voter fraud exists and asked if these reports have been investigated. From the August 16 edition of The O’Reilly Factor: O’Reilly himself investigated and debunked these allegations in 2012. Following the election, O’Reilly hosted Fox’s Megyn Kelly to investigate the “shenanigans” and why Romney got zero votes in a number of Philadelphia divisions. Kelly explained that “the same thing happened to John McCain” in 2008 because “the divisions with the unanimous Obama votes have large black, inner-city populations.”” 

So will this be a repeat of what we saw in 2016, and with the population of 250 U.S. metro areas extremely likely to be livid, what chance does this administration have? So whilst we return to the story and visit “In an interview with CBC News, Karen Chapple, the lead researcher and director of the School of Cities, said the drop in tourism to popular destinations like Orlando, as well as border communities like Buffalo, N.Y., has been well-documented. What her cellphone data makes clear is that the Canadian boycott is affecting cities both big and small across the States — and it’s not just leisure travel that has dried up. The self-imposed travel ban has extended to high-tech, financial and industrial centres, signaling that cross-border business and trade patterns have fundamentally shifted over the last year. “I have been using the word ‘sea change,'” Chapple said of the data she and her team uncovered. “And the places most impacted by the tariffs are also the ones most affected by the loss of travel,” she said, pointing to some Michigan cities like Flint that have trade ties to Ontario’s auto sector. “These declines are really tied to the composition of the local economies.”” A setting which my (decently speculative numbers also looked at) you see, there is a lot more to the spending of an international traveling person. They often fro not know certain things, or they might see it as impolite to use certain settings and this would have impacted local businesses a lot more. Like the local B&B places (to name merely one) and none of those earlier numbers would have seen that and now we see that there is a 15% gap between what was and seemingly what is. 

It is at this point where the CBC setting matters. As we are given “The U.S. Travel Association last year said a 10 per cent drop in Canadian tourism would cost the American economy about $2.1 billion US. If Chapple’s data is an accurate reflection of what’s going on, that means Canadians holding back on U.S. travel may have cost the economy about $8.4 billion US and counting. Speaking at a progressive political conference last weekend, Prime Minister Mark Carney applauded Canadians’ efforts to stand up to the Americans as the trade dispute with Trump drags on.” And now I get to gloat (just a little) and my story given on August 30th 2025 called ‘Vindication of a sort’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/08/30/vindication-of-a-sort/) where I stated 

“I speculatively expect it to be at least 80 billion” that was over two weeks ago. Now MSN gives us ‘Study Warns Trump Tariffs Could Deliver $64 Billion Hit to U.S. Tourism Businesses’, I reckon that when they start considering the bankruptcies in Florida and California are added, they will get a lot closer to my 80 billion”

So my speculation was hitting reality on nearly all thrusters and whilst bankruptcies are on a high in Florida (44,496), which dwarves the previous year (which had 32,933) and these numbers are set to May 26th 2026, as such these numbers are most likely to rise and taken that the CBC gives us alternative numbers, that jump might be a lot and I speculated it over a year ago, that is before we look at California where we see ‘California personal bankruptcies up 15% in a year’ (source: East Bay Times). The story they have comes with graphics, which are (especially for Canadians, fun to behold at https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2026/06/02/california-personal-bankruptcies-up-15-in-a-year/) It gives me that Texas with its 20% is still a states to consider and considering all these families renting out part of their house on a B&B setting are likely to be all personal bankruptcies. When you add all this up, you might start seeing the settings I say in 2025 because this all was set to Canadian impact, whilst I was looking at the larger international community that had enough of Trumpisms and I also considered that the Commonwealth nations might stand with Canada and select Canada as the destination for the next few years. That speculation is seemingly holding water as well, as such the United States has a real problem until deep into 2029 and with the Middle East exploring their tourism settings (especially the UAE) that hardship is nowhere near done. 

So some might see this as ego boasting, but there is no ego in place. I merely saw the numbers behind the numbers and I saw a trend evolving and I have been doing this since 1992, so I have a few markers that have been seeing the test of time. My ego does giggle at the simple fact that I was more on the nose with these numbers than all the fake AI in the land. So that part is gloating boasting and all kinds of nearly negative settings. I don’t have to give space to fake AI, it is that kind of a day today (at it is Wednesday 01:10 here), it sometimes suck to be a Fake AI, doesn’t it?

The article has one source “Barbara Barrett, executive director of the Frontier Duty Free Association, a trade group representing the mostly family-owned stores that dot the Canadian side of the border, said the steeper drop-off figures are more believable than the StatsCan data, based on how badly sales have plummeted at some of her members’ outlets.” Yes, I never considered that, but Canadians tend to buy the Canadian articles they know, as such that group is also facing dwindling numbers. For them I do feel sorry, but it is part of the whole.

So as I go to bed with a gloat, I wish you all a great day, my Wednesday ‘officially’ starts in less than 300 minutes.

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