Tag Archives: politics

April 21, 2026 · 05:45

For a few Yuan more

So, yesterday I saw a MarketWatch article (at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-meaning-of-uae-reportedly-requesting-a-dollar-swap-line-6a40d630) where we see ‘The real meaning of UAE reportedly requesting a dollar swap line’, now don’t start running like a half baked cryotoboy to it’s mommy stating the world is ending (like we saw to weeks ago when some of them ran off to the airport), the byline gives us a clear “Economists believe the UAE is signaling it wants closer ties with allies, not a bailout” and I can agree with that. I have not seen seen any Emirati panic, or make bailout mentions. We are given “A report the United Arab Emirates requested a dollar swap line with the U.S. may be more a threat the Gulf nation could shift an alliance rather than a sign it’s about to run short of the American currency, observers said.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE central bank governor, Mohamed Balama,  requested a currency-swap line with the U.S. from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent while in Washington D.C. last week. The UAE is facing pressure from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though experts say its economy so far is strong enough to maintain a dollar peg.” It comes with the additional “Tim Ash, senior strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management, pointed out in a posting on X, that sovereigns do not request swap lines lightly. Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign relations agreed, also highlighting on X that he doesn’t believe UAE is in any emergency need of financial assistance, given it entered this conflict with huge holdings of U.S. Treasurys and significant forex reserves in excess of $250 billion. It’s important to note that the Emiratis have asked for a swap line and not a credit line.” And that is supported with graphics on ‘UAE forex reserves versus holdings of U.S. Treasurys, in billions of dollars.CFR’ and those numbers look good, even a non economist (like me) can see that the numbers of the UAE are good. Yet what we are also given is “Gave suggests, the UAE may be “sending a not-so-subtle message to the U.S., namely “leave the region and you will quickly be replaced by China.””

It might make sense and considering the damage that the United States Congress, a document produced on April 9th 2026, by Paul Kerr gives us “Iran’s nuclear program has for decades generated widespread concern that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons. According to past U.S. intelligence assessments, Tehran has the capacity to produce nuclear weapons at some point but has halted its nuclear weapons program and has not mastered all of the necessary technologies for building such weapons. The extent to which June 2025 and February 2026 Israeli and U.S. airstrikes affected Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons is unclear.” with the added “According to official U.S. assessments, Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003. This program’s goal, according to U.S. officials and the IAEA, was to develop an implosion-style nuclear weapon for Iran’s Shahab-3 ballistic missile. A 2025 public U.S. intelligence assessment stated that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon” and that the now-former Supreme Leader had “not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated on March 4, 2026, that the agency “never had information indicating that there was a structured systematic [Iranian] program to build or to construct a nuclear weapon.””

So, there was no real nuclear danger? And the Strait of Hormuz was open before this clambake started? It seems to me that the UAE (optionally with support of all other oil producing gulf nations) should give warning to not mess with their background, especially as it is roughly 7,000 miles away from Washington DC, as such no international waterways (connected) to the United States are in danger.

But in addition to the MarketWatch article, we see the Canadian DeepDive giving us (at https://thedeepdive.ca/uae-threatens-yuan-oil-trade-if-us-denies-dollar-lifeline-as-iran-war-drains-reserves/) ‘UAE Threatens Yuan Oil Trade if US Denies Dollar Lifeline as Iran War Drains Reserves’. The first part of opposition (by me) is that MarketWatch shows that the reserves are good. Basically DeepDive is not lying, reserves are seemingly being drained and that does not imply that the UAE reserves are in danger. But here we see “Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama brought the proposal to Federal Reserve officials and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington last week, the Journal reported. Abu Dhabi’s position, relayed through multiple officials: the war has strained its finances, dollar reserves could come under pressure, and if Washington does not provide a liquidity facility, the UAE may have little choice but to settle oil and gas trades in yuan or other non-dollar currencies. Emirati officials also told their US counterparts that Trump’s decision to attack Iran was what drew the country into the conflict to begin with. No formal application for a swap line has been submitted.” It is like the message Louis Gave, chief executive officer at Gavekal Research gave us, we merely get more information here. So like MarketWatch we see here “a bilateral currency swap with the Federal Reserve — would allow the UAE Central Bank to draw down dollars against dirhams at the prevailing exchange rate, effectively insuring against a hard-currency crunch without requiring emergency asset sales. 

The Fed currently holds standing arrangements of this kind with five central banks: the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank. Extending one to the UAE would mark a meaningful expansion of the Fed’s wartime financial commitments.” I am not enough of an economist to see the larger implications, but as I see it, President Trump started shitting in its economic backyard and now the people affected are saying (my of voicing it) “Stop this or we walk away from the US dollar in trade”, now you might think that I am overstating the ‘danger’ but consider that the US dollar is already under stress from a 39 trillion dollar debt (aka $39,000,000,000,000) and now when the Dollar trade offset is impacting trade other means of revenue would seemingly fall away, because it is never a simple setting (is it), and this would be the Home Run that China would love to see evolve. Do you really think this would be merely about oil? When oil starts, others will seek shelter and that is before others dump their $5 trillion (aka $5,000,000,000,000) in US treasury bonds. There have been noises that smaller amounts were ‘dismissed’ but the larger amounts are a worry for Wall Street, they are highly unlikely able to survive this pressure, as such the United States Administration better come up with a solution and quite fast. 

All this whilst Al Jazeera gives us ‘Iran war live: Uncertainty over talks, Trump insists deal to come ‘quickly’’ with the added “Iran says it has no plans to send negotiators to Pakistan for a new round of talks after the United States seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, President Donald Trump says US team, led by Vice President JD Vance, is on its way to Islamabad” So, one has no plans to send someone, whist the other states someone is on the way? How is that communicating? How is that any solution? That is the premise (given to us 14 minutes ago) that someone like China needs to dethrone the US dollar, so when China gives a solution in the next 24 hours, whilst President Trump starts commenting on his big beautiful solution for the world, the premise of the United States Dollar being removed from the oil trade becomes real. Do you really think that this is just about oil? Because this setting would require the better part of a decade to unwind. It is too early for me to say that the US dollar is out of this, but the other elements might make the pressures of the Dollar in the oil trade unmanageable. 

It is merely my point of view, no biggie. Have a great day, still 120 minutes until breakfast for me. I, hungry, all whilst it is lunchtime in Vancouver, what a bastards.

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April 20, 2026 · 07:11

The bare numbers

Politico gave us less than I day ago that Iran fired over 90% of its missiles and drones on civilian infrastructure targets. With ‘UAE official: More than 90% of Iran’s targets were civilian infrastructure’ (at https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/19/united-arab-emirates-iran-civilian-infrastructure-00880064) we see a few facts. The first is the absolute worthlessness of António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and from me there is no reason to call him ‘His Excellency’, his silence on this matter is deafening. We are given “Reem Al Hashimy, the UAE’s minister of state for international cooperation, said during a Sunday morning appearance on ABC’s “This Week” that Iran was seeking to destroy the UAE’s “model of prosperity and tolerance.” With the additional ““We used our oil wealth to build an economic powerhouse. They used their wealth for nuclear programs that are nefarious, for missiles, drones, proxies, etc.,” she told host Jonathan Karl. “So whereas we tried to become and have become an international, global, responsible player, they are a pariah state. And they wanted to break that model, but they underestimated our resolve.” The UAE has faced a barrage of attacks from Iran since the U.S. and Israel launched joint attacks on Iran in late February. While the Gulf state, like many of its neighbors, initially opposed the war, it has since shifted its tone as it considers how to avoid the breakout of a larger regional war.”

It seems to me that the United Nations is failing is plenty of ways, but perhaps they are busy playing host to another mission at present.  He ends with “Asked if she harbored concerns about Trump’s threats, Al Hashimy said the UAE believes that “maximum pressure” is necessary to move forward, while cautioning against civilian attacks. “Ultimately, we don’t want to hurt the Iranian people. That’s very important to mention. But at the same time, it’s the Revolutionary Guard that have taken forward a military stance and a posture not against the U.S. and Israel alone, but against the very neighborhood that they operate in through the Gulf states.”” I hope that the UAE optionally is willing to test the solutions I handed them (and the KSA as well) to destroy the infrastructures of Iran as well (I published them over the last month, one for shipping, one for trains and optionally one for trucking). It was my personal believe that Iran options come to a stand still when all three are hit. 

The fact that it seemingly is Politico illuminating that side of the nastiness of the Iranian war will find its way to the mainstream media soon enough. 

On the other side, the BS setting of influencers who give us that the Dubai mall is empty, usually with a picture of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum on the starting page is making me angry, as such an image of the entrance to the mall of Dubai less than 24 hours ago.

I think that Google needs to do something about the use of misinformation on its YouTube pages. I am all for freedom of speech, but that comes with a healthy dose of accountability.

It seems that the UAE is under attack from several parties, not just Iran, it is easy to hide behind the bare numbers in the middle of Ramadan, but Ramadan is now over so whilst over a million people are attending the Hajj, an event that Saudi Arabia just officially opened the doors to, we need to see what is real and what is not. Perhaps the idea of a web view outside of the Dubai mall and perhaps some other places, so that the world can see the BS that these wannabe influencers are handing you.

Just a thought to entertain, I remain a decent ally of the UAE and the prosperity and goodwill they advertise. And even as Iran is still attacking Abu Dhabi, visiting Yas Island remains a firm number one on my bucket list for now, so it is my wish that the Harry Potter addition to Warner Brothers Theme parks, especially as the ones in the United States are basically no longer a good idea.

Have a great day

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April 18, 2026 · 12:36

The danger of assumption

I saw the CBC news, then I saw a YouTube video and as there is some relation, I thought it important to illustrate this as I am a Commonwealthian, as such I stand with Canada. The news (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/lockheed-martin-officials-canada-tout-maintenance-plan-f35s-9.7168398) where we see ‘Lockheed Martin officials coming to Canada to tout maintenance plan for F-35s’ I the first degree I was clearly on the Canadian side (I still am, in case you worry). We were given “Canada ordered 88 F-35s in 2023, but began reassessing its options after Trump took office” with an additional “Canada has a firm order for 16 F-35 aircraft, to begin delivery later this year, to replace Canada’s aging fleet of CF-18s. As CBC recently revealed, Canada has discreetly begun to incur expenses toward acquiring another 14 F-35 aircraft. Several politicians have been invited to Tuesday’s event in Mirabel, but National Defence Minister David McGuinty and Industry Minister Mélanie Joly do not plan to attend. Senior American executives from Lockheed Martin and L3Harris are expected at the event.” It comes with the added “In its media advisory, Lockheed Martin said its agreement with L3Harris “will provide Canada with greater control over aircraft maintenance, reduce reliance on overseas logistics and enhance operational readiness.” L3Harris is still trying to convince the governments of Canada and Quebec to offer funding to help modernize its facilities in Mirabel. The company has said thousands of jobs in the region are at stake. L3Harris is hoping to transform its Mirabel facilities, which are currently used to service CF-18s, into a maintenance depot for Canadian and American F-35s.” As I see it, it is an act of desperation. The much larger setting of the Saab JAS 39 Gripen a Swedish solution, is cheaper, is more reliable in cold environments and it comes with added of economic settings for Canada. Lockheed Martin has no real answer and President Trump made the sale of 88 F-35 a liability and Canada is looking for a better solution, one that takes the pressures away from the United States giving Canada. The Swedish solution makes perfect sense for Canada and as such Canada is seemingly (I use seemingly as I have never seen the original sales documents) chasing Sweden and its Saab solution. The simple bottom line is that Canada can get 2 Saabs for every F35, as such it is quite the cost saving. As such Lockheed Martin is scared, its own president endangered the sale for billions and that is a problem, as such the options given to Canada is fluidic, more options and there is the fear factor, a fear factor for the United States, because Canada when it pulls out the American pillars of economy and taxation are almost certain to collapse. And Lockheed Martin is the first corporation to fae billion dollar losses because of the silliness of one particular person in Washington.

The setting that spending on nearly any kind in the United States are seen as the more risky spending is now seen as other spending settings is considered and there is a win for Sweden as well as the EU on other fields. There was a second setting, but it seems that there is a level of inaccurate settings by Today Canada stating that yesterday at 03:45 Trump stated “51st state soon”, it would be anger instilling, but I found no evidence that this actually happened and if it was on Trump social media, everyone would be shouting it. 

So that is not a factor, but the underlying setting is (which the media is ignoring too) the underlying setting is that the United States is (as I personally see it) almost completely out of cash. They are shifting all kinds of posts that they can pay later for what they need to pay now. I have given these views in the past (not interested in hashing out the same) but the setting adds up. As such I believe that CBC is reporting on the desperation of gaining the favour of Canada and they are willing to bend over backwards. And as a definite winner is not announced (not in the media) Lockheed Martin believes it has options for now. And whatever the actual sentimentality is towards Canada, there is a firm believe that President Trump has actually united the world. As far as I know the United States is now (for the most) the most hatred nation in the western world. So president Trump united all the nations. The fact that it is against the united States might be a mere blip on his radar. The problem is that the media is no help as they lost too much credibility and as such the influencers and doom speakers are now calling for out attention (players like Today Canada) and should they be right, then they should present the evidence, not just the images of old, with suiting dialogue. And as I usually check all the sources handed to me, Today Canada fell through the basket a fake news bringers.

But the setting is still of importance not directly what President Trump did or did not do, but the need to vetting the information we get must be vetted. Some (like CBC) get a pass through the credibility they earned over time, which means that there is credibility. 

So as we see the desperation of Lockheed Martin and the setting of the Saab Gripen, it would help if the world (and Canadians in particular) get a nice setting of what the story with Saab and Lockheed Martin is, what has been agreed upon and what is clearly set and what is still in tentative settings. We all get that there are tentative settings, but as I see it, with the United States any other option seems more reliable (as I personally see it). 

And whilst we can assume most things, we can at times presume a few things and those with reliability are more credible and with personal exposure to facts presumption gains more weight and those who blindly assume will lose whatever reliability they had.

Have a great day.

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April 10, 2026 · 01:49

Creation and creativity

That is the setting I see. Someone ‘alerted’ readers that Israel will be preparing for a ‘forever war’ and that might apply to some extent. They reacted poorly to Iran, but not all in all unexpected. Israel was under attack for the longest time of my life either direct, or indirect by Iran. So their setting makes sense to me. But in that same setting a new door is opening up for the UAE. They get the option to open the door of creation and creativity is where the bucks come. You see, if my setting of the United States make sense, America is about to become hindered by its own arrogance and their new reality of ‘we can no longer play that game’, but in that same sense of one, the other setting also becomes clear. 

So I will take a step back and lead you through that setting. Arabic is spoken in most of the Islamic nations and in that setting we get: 

Egypt – population of 90,000,000
India – population of 200,000,000
Indonesia – population of 250,000,000
Pakistan – population of 233,000,000
Bangladesh – population of 150,000,000
Turkey – population of 80,000,000

Which gets us a population of more than a billion and we still have all of the gulf states to get through. These are merely the top 6 and as I see it, it will be soon that the population of the United States will no longer be able to service them. A billion in Business Intelligence and all the dollars that combine them (as well as the Gulf States) and it is business right there for the picking up. So whilst we get IBM and their statistics, Oracle and their databases, Oracle Database provides extensive support for the Arabic language through its National Language Support (NLS) architecture, which handles character sets, sorting, and cultural conventions. But that setting might lose ground support from the United States, now combine that with Business Intelligence, the training of these people and the support from other regions is now getting close to a freewill and adjusting regional support (like Tourism) gets a new lease on life. Combine this with the settings that NICE (an Israeli customer care solution) gives the world, we see settings that might (might is still the operational preferred word) to a population of well over a billion and for the UAE and its near unique position would be able to service this setting to these nations and other too. And as things go from services, the education there might also be in a near free-fall as we see that the United States will lose more and more handle as their services fall short. The UAE could be one of the first to pick up the shortfall and takeover of these elements. As such the UAE comes out stronger and now we see an acquired setting where others might not be ready to take over the elements that were in hands of the United States for the longest of times. But as its settings fall short, they will make knee-jerk reaction to hold on to so many things and more and more service will fall free into the air. A perfect opportunity for the business sense of the Emirati people. 

When you get to think of this, you might think that the United States would hold on to this, but when the first services started to fumble, a lot more comes clear for a free-fall. The AFR gave us (on Tuesday) ‘Jamie Dimon is counting the straws that will break the market’s back’, Forbes is giving us “Every April, Jamie Dimon publishes his annual letter to JPMorganChase shareholders, and every April, the financial press spends a week dissecting his views on the economy, geopolitics, and regulatory reform. Meanwhile the technology section and references—arguably the most consequential parts of the letter for anyone working in banking or fintech—get the least attention. But not from me. Here’s what Dimon said about technology, and why every community banker and fintech executive should be paying close attention:

In a section on new products, Dimon wrote that the risks around customer data misuse are “likely to get far worse with AI and agentic commerce.” He framed this as an opportunity for JPMorgan to position itself as a trusted intermediary—essentially a consumer data guardian—and flagged plans to roll out products around “control of personal data, safe commerce and customer-friendly algorithms.” Community banks should be asking themselves who their answer to that question is. Buried in the macroeconomic risk section, Dimon mentions that five hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Apple) will spend $725 billion on AI-driven capital spending and construction in 2026, up from $450 billion in 2025. The scale creates two problems for smaller banks: 1) the infrastructure gap between large banks and community institutions is widening at a pace that periodic tech upgrades cannot close, and 2) the talent required to actually deploy AI—not buy it, but configure it, govern it, and integrate it—is getting absorbed by the hyperscalers.”

But personally I believe that the story is incomplete (and partially inaccurate) AI is not here, no matter what people say. There is a doom setting towards people not implementing AI, but AI is not here yet, it won’t be ready for decades and people are in this tailspin of doom and all the headless checks squawking ‘Get AI, get AI’ are delusional (some call these squawking chickens Influencers)  and if you pick through that balloon you get a lot of air, but that is all it is. Still the setting of DML and LLM could give some kind of relief when properly applied. I never denied that, but DML/llm is not AI, no matter what the chickens say. And in all this one name on the list is missing. IBM and their Business Intelligence and that is a powerful setting and take their BI and apply it to the top 6 you get one hell of a business venture. And normally there is no getting in-between that. But President Trump and his Big Beautiful Baloney gave life to this opportunity. Too bad for them that the internet is fueled by a WWW setting, not a BBB setting. And now this becomes the option for the UAE (optionally Saudi Arabia as well), but the UAE has a more powerful BI and business setting (this is a speculative setting I see, but I could be wrong), so as we see how the United States is faltering, the failing services for the top 6 named here gives rise to the business opportunity that is falling almost directly in the lap of the UAE. And whilst I might fail to see the how it falls, I believe that Abu Dhabi and Shariah might have the strongest settings. I am not short selling Dubai, merely seeing that these new ventures might be served better in a lower costing setting.

So whilst we see the BS the media feeds the population in the US and optionally EU too, a gap of options will open up in the UAE. Snowflake is already in the UAE (in Saudi Arabia as well), but I lack the knowledge to see where they are at present and I believe that the opportune mind will see a larger field of opportunity. So whilst the world is all screaming (like headless chickens) “Apply IA, apply AI” we tend to forget that only 5 years ago that setting was nil and BI was for almost three decades and out is that soon as the services from the United States are faltering, the UAE now has a option to capture this market and make it Arabic, because the language is part of the new stream, these 6 nations will be the first to capture that opportunity. That has always been the case. As such I say, look where you would go and the United States turned it always into: “Come to us” and when that falls flat, the new players will see what is there for them and I see great options for the UAE (I also want them to enjoy the shortfall others have) which gives rise to the statement “The UAE comes out stronger” and I believe that this believe in self is what is required to had a larger win of an economy handed to the USA for far too long.

So have a great day, my run to the weekend started 90 minutes ago and consider, what else did I miss? I cannot tell where your shortfall is, but I do know that I cannot have seen all the settings of opportunity in a mere three hours. I am clever, but I am not THAT clever, I don’t mind.

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April 8, 2026 · 12:57

What he said

That is the setting we are no longer dreading. The bully tactics are starting to fall on deaf ears and whilst we are to some degree used to the setting that President Trump is handing us:

Screenshot

Of course the timeline ended and ABC gives us ‘Iran war live updates: Donald Trump suspends bombing for two weeks, Iran pledges safe passage through Strait of Hormuz’ which happened 10 hours ago. But the setting is now a bigger thing. We see several media giving us that the Republicans are ‘siding’ behind the Democrats who want him impeached. That setting is not enough for the world. You see, the words “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” This would be considered an illegal order by the commander in chief of the USA armed forces and there is a rule about illegal orders (I might have forgotten that rule), seemingly one does never obey illegal orders. And now the world gets to see how useless the United States has become. It comes across like a rabbit dog with a leash that goes until the end of its garden, but seemingly no further. And that comes with a peppered invoice. As I see it (I could always be wrong) that Iran will now cry at the international courts of the Hague for being attacked without a clear war statement and the media has repeated those words often enough and as such there is every chance on Iran will claiming over 600 billion dollar in damages to land and the Iranian people. This will also invite the gulf nations to make claims of hundreds of billions of dollars for damages to their national revenue and damages to their land settings and they can get this in the first from Iran and in the second setting from the United States of America and Israel. Because no matter how Israel has a reason to do this, it was involved in an illegal war (as I see it) but that last part remains to be seen. 

So am I wrong? You see all these attacks by Iran were in the pst proxy wars through Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi forces, as such it will be about evidence. But as I see it, there will be enough evidence around to see that Iran will not get away Scott free. So as the world will see the damages and the evidence to be brought to court. The second tier in all this is the claims that some made that Iran will demand $2M per vessel per passing through the Strait of Hormuz, too many repeated those claims to be ignored, and there is an upside to this. 

You see, not all of it belongs to Iran, and at least several miles will be in the capture of Oman, so if these ships pay Oman $100K-$1M we already have a minimum 50% discount and none of it ends up In Iranian hands. I might be oversimplifying this, but when did anyone make a clear case for the Omanian side? And at that point if these ships are still attacked, NATO, Australia and India will have a clear case to come in to the rescue and Iran will not have a foot to stand on. Perhaps Oman will not resort to ‘blackmail’ and they will take goodwill from several nations for that in return, but that would be up to Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said who is the ruler of Oman (as I see it), as such, what options did anyone explore in the sultanate of Oman? I haven’t seen the media look into that direction in any way as far as I looked into it and these settings were clear for weeks. And yesterday (at https://quincyinst.org/2026/04/07/the-war-will-end-with-a-hormuz-toll-booth/) the The Quincy Institute stands for responsible statecraft gave the world ‘The War Will End With a Hormuz Toll Booth’ we see “The legal terrain is complicated but not insurmountable. Under international law, the entire width of the strait at its narrowest point consists of the overlapping territorial seas of Iran and Oman, with no high seas’ corridor between them. Iran cannot unilaterally charge a toll on ships hugging the Omani coastline. However, a bilateral Iran-Oman transit authority would eliminate the legal ambiguity. Oman gets a revenue stream and more strategic relevance.” I am still in favour of screwing over Iran because of the attacks they made on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but that is me, a little vindictive gremlin in most times. The fact that there is a clear part that is Oman is seemingly ignored, but maritime law is clearly pronounced on what is national waters, they tend to get a little murky on these bottlenecks, but still there is part of this that is Omanian and the media is clearly not looking at this part. Why not?

It might be a case for another day and it is important that the setting of Oman is clearly set here, because if whatever proceeds happens, it needs to have the proper legal stage to proceed. So whilst we might take a giggle to illegal orders and to bully tactics. The clear setting is that the illegal war (as I personally see it) was done on Iran, Iran closed the strait, none of this would have happened if Israel and the USA had not attacked Iran. It seems to be a simple assessment. 

If we are to proceed can wee please do so in a legal way (without posturing and ending civilizations)? It might make for good media, but the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague are all about prosecuting transgressors for genocide and war crimes. As it stands President Trump might be guilty of one and an alleged other crime. As such it might get flaky and weird in the Netherlands soon enough. By the way, if you are there to report on the setting, one of the best places to eat Herring near the ICC is here:

It is a Dutch delicacy (especially with unions) so go wild, I say.

Have a great day and consider the Omanian setting. Who reported on that in the past month?

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April 6, 2026 · 22:10

Where we go next

That is an important question, because the next stage is any setting can be set in two switches. The one that affects you directly and the the one that does not affect you. We then get the affected switch that has a direct consequence and merely a derived one. So when we get Al Jazeera who gives us ‘Tehran rejects Trump’s Hormuz deadline’ mere hours ago, these switches go into overdrive. Because now we get BBC telling us 5 hours ago ‘Trump issues expletive-laden threat to Iran over Hormuz Strait blockage’ where we learn “US President Donald Trump has published an expletive-laden post on social media in which he threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges if it failed to meet his Tuesday deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping. He repeated an earlier threat to unleash “hell” but told US media there was a “good chance” of a deal being reached with Tehran. Iran mocked his ultimatum, dismissing it as “helpless, nervous and stupid”.” And we then get ABC giving us 13 hours ago ‘Iran briefing with Matthew Doran: Threats tell us more about Trump’s frustration than anything else’ where we see “Donald Trump has issued a new deadline of Tuesday for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping traffic, without restriction. In an expletive-laden post on social media, he said bridges and power plants would be destroyed if the regime in Tehran didn’t comply”, in this we have “issued a new deadline”, which is what people do who cannot follow through on threats are a separate issue. I cannot say what issue, because I am still on that horse named bankrupt and the only setting that makes sense would have been bombing near immediately. The fact that we get timeline stretching is another setting that influences it all. But 3 minutes ago Al Jazeera gives us ‘Pakistan says it is engaged in diplomacy amidst ‘egos’ and ‘distrust’’, I personally believe that Pakistan needs to get involved to safe face with both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, but they are right in one part. Whatever the United States gives us is flawed if not, an outright ‘miscommunication’. ‘So whilst we all see the ‘tirades’ President Trump gives us all we deny, looking in the corner where nobody wants us too look. Add to that all the generals who got fired (apparently 8 in total) a setting that shifts a few lines and the derived consequence to the switches I mentioned at the start by them.

Whatever is taken from a convoluted timeline that we see now seems to be the flimflam orchestration which only reaffirms my thoughts that the United States is on its last energy and when that runs out, the hostilities begin. Do you really believe that President Trump will admit to being out of funds? I reckon that we better reenforce the defence of Canada, because as I see it, the United States is likely to get 65,000 troops as reenforcement. So suddenly I sound a little less crazy don’t I? And it comes at a time when CUSMA is under review, the Hill gives us “Canada and Mexico have suffered the ire of Trump, ranging from blanket tariffs to threats of annexation and invasion. As a result, economic policy uncertainty is at historical highs in Canada, while in Mexico, the devaluation of the peso and a 10-25 per cent U.S. tariff on many Mexican goods has hit the economy hard. Beneath the headlines are more muted negotiations over policy choices on matters of tariff exemption and content requirements for a range of sectors. While automobile manufacturing and steel steal the headlines, the critical minerals and energy sector is now at centre stage in the CUSMA review.” The setting is ‘pre-arranged’ as it is the United States that is in a crunch, not Canada or Mexico and it is the United States that requires critical minerals. And in that setting both Mexico and Canada are the strong players, even whilst we are given “economic policy uncertainty is at historical highs in Canada” all whilst Canada is making new headways in the world with the Middle East, Europe and Asia the new stages of economic strength. Not policy uncertainty. As I see it, there are more settings in play. 

There is a setting under the surface that screams misalignment. I personally think that the United States is playing bluff poker with a “dead man’s hand” all whilst his opponents Iran, Europe and Canada knows what he is holding. I think this is the best analogy I can come up with. So when the shouting and bully tactics end, the United States is holding the cards they have and they are not good. So they either bluff their way into everyone not playing, or they will win. Even at this setting Canada needs a mere three two’s to win the hand and that might be the weakest setting it needs. No one has a clue what Mexico has, but its catering to the shortages of Cuba gives them a few short term advantages. So whatever the United States is proposing in this setting will have a few set backs. The first what the Venezuelan failure brought and the second is the 6 week failure that Iran is bringing to the table. I reckon that they might have a claim of a few hundred billion to the table of the International courts of The Hague. No matter how you slice this, it will be seen as an illegal war. No matter whatever the US administration calls it (they called it not a war) and in that setting it is the courts that will have a field day (and those lawyers making the good cash) and all of this comes out of the near empty coffers of the United States. So whilst we see all this, a mere two days ago we are given “Fox News’ Bill Hemmer cut off President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser when he tried to blame former President Joe Biden for high gas prices amid the Iran war. Oil prices have surged as Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway in the Middle East that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil. The national average cost of gas has exceeded $4 a gallon in the U.S. as Americans bear the brunt of Trump’s war against Iran.” So is this the path of this US administration? Blame the previous administration? 

And I apologise in advance of jumping over these hurdles (articles) like a horse on steroids. But it gives us a larger setting that is over all the images. The media are pretty good of merely looking at one part, hoping the people doesn’t see the larger image. It reminds me of the person showing is the image of a worm and we think ‘Oh, goody’ but the image becomes a little weird when we zoom out, only to realise that we were looking at the tail of a rat and the ones manipulating the images are all about misdirecting our interest whilst we should be focusing on rat extermination. 

So whilst I might be wrong to focus on a broke United States of America, it is where the exposed data leads me. And whilst the United States tells the world it is doing great, we need to realise that things are bad. Consider that last week we were given “According to March 2026 data, the US labor market showed remarkable strength with 178,000 jobs added” and whilst we see a few days later “Oracle has laid off approximately 30,000 employees, representing about 19% of its global workforce”  all whilst we are also given “Since the start of 2026, Meta, Autodesk, Salesforce, Workday, Google, Pinterest, Block and other firms have announced layoffs” so how great is the employment setting of the United States? In all this it is merely another element towards the broke setting of the United States, all whilst the media is no help in giving us what we would need to give ourselves a neutral view on the matter. A setting that this US Administration is using (read: abusing) to get the populist vote, but things really are not that rosy at present for the current administration. I reckon that the expected filtering on the speculated ‘deleting of bad news’ in California will aid the economic downturn that the United States is currently facing. 

The ice is slippery and not enough to bare anyones weight (especially mine) but as the media is not doing its jobs, I have no choice but to speculate with the (incomplete) data I have and this is the conclusion I come to. The United States is broke, I have said so before, but the evidence is now becoming malleable, which it should not, I agree with people opposing that thought. Yet the images of President Trump going all out like the proverbial mad dog with his threats

All whilst people focus on the threat and not on the stage surrounding that threat and it goes way beyond Iran. 

So have a great day and consider the thoughts I am leaving you with.

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April 5, 2026 · 06:46

The thought was there

I have been giving you all the works over the last month as the United States is setting new levels of non-conformist thinking (aka stupidity), but one thought was creeping in the back of my mind, because it partially didn’t make sense. I kept it under the hood and brooded on this. You see, the Guardian brought it to the top once again (yesterday) with the headline ‘US defense spending would rise $445bn under Trump budget plan, with steep cuts elsewhere’ We get that the United States is overly proud of its military, but that much overspending does not make sense. That is, if current quarters hold. But that is not the case is it? His NATO rhetoric, his biased plans to include, there is something amiss in all this. It reeks of Germany at 1938. Germany had jobs for all people, it would be a beautiful, beautiful new world where everyone worked. He was not lying (for the most) but we merely never thought that this would go in a certain direction, did we? Now we see his boasting of setting NATO on its feathers, which means that there is every chance that 65000 troops are coming back from Germany and Italy (and a few more places). This gives me the willies. I reckon that the United States is so deeply in debt that he merely sees the annexation of Canada and Greenland to thwart his broken wallet from collapsing on itself. As I see it, Iran is now a bust, so he goes back to Canada and Greenland and annex it. I reckon that he will need the 65K troops to cluster in eastern Canada, and a lot in Western Canada (to push towards Greenland) that setting would fit the bill of a maniacal narcissist. And it is only a fear I have, because I remember WW2, I was born just after it and I saw Rotterdam after the bombing. It took well over a decade to fix what was done to my city and I few we will see a similar setting happening now. It is only this scenario that calls for the actions the US government is seemingly making now and when the bill is due, no one will like President Trump for hat he does, but 100 million people will inwardly smile, because the bill that comes due to all is delayed a few more years. So that hidden fear I spoke last night makes it now essential to select China as a new partner. Or the alignment with BRICS, Because when the United States is in this predicament, China is the only player that will instill fear on the United States and the Commonwealth will not be able to deal with the United States. We never thought it would come to this, but the elements are lining up exactly to this scenario.

The important question becomes ‘Could I be wrong?’ 

Yes, that is definitely true, but the elements that we are given like ‘bombing back to the stone age’ and replacing its generals, optionally for fresh new generals who would do whatever the United States needs. That is the setting we are given and the White House will use Iran as an example of what is to come with anyone siding against America, as such we are now coming into a field where we are watching ourselves getting scared stiff, or go to war. It is not a scenario I ever envisioned, but I still remember what was left of Rotterdam and the noises we hear now are eerily similar. 

So whilst we are given in the Guardian “Under the proposal for the 2027 fiscal year beginning on 1 October, defense spending would rise by 42% to $1.5tn, $445bn higher than its level in 2026. The funds would go towards programs intended to ensure “the United States maintains the world’s most powerful and capable military”” the question becomes how much time do we have left? Because there is no way that Canada is ready for well over 65,000 troops at the border, they will push into Greenland with not too much opposition. All the lollies President Trump wants and after that he will make a narcissistic excuse why it is better for the world, why the United States is so much better than whatever comes in its place. As I see it, the cure was a lot harsher than the disease called greed. What we see now is a nation that will take from anyone else as long as it serves their purpose. 

But still I wonder, could I be wrong? Am I seeing figments of my paranoid delusion playing itself out? And I merely have to look towards Venezuela and Iran to see that I am not. And whatever Washington and Wall Street think the have, they will then be known as the enemy of the world, greed unchecked and unbalanced is the setting that comes and scorches everything else. In that same setting we can wonder what these data centers were meant to hold? The data of everything non-American? It is a wonder but when you see that the push for data centers is set to the maintenance of greed in all its records. So consider where you are and what you are optionally overlooking. My mind is shivering for what is coming to all our shores. 

Have a great day.

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April 3, 2026 · 17:19

The change I am predicting

That is the setting, but it is merely a speculation. It might be called presumption if I knew all the players, but I do not. We see ourselves in the west versus the Middle East (the crusader setting) and the West versus the Iron Curtain (cold war) or the West versus Asia (Perpetual Foreigner setting), but those are yesterday’s settings. We need a new setting. It is more and more imperative that the Commonwealth seeks a closer working relationship with the Middle East, particular Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It isn’t merely because the money and oil are there. The setting that the United States of America is about to become our most enemy is coming too close for comfort and we need to stay with our Canadian brethren (sisters too), we can watch from a distance, but soon it will be too late and politicians better realise that ‘It was too complex’ or ‘we never banked on that’ will not be an excuse to get away from it all. It starts with the (as I personally see it) the illegal war on Iran. Now don’t get me wrong, Iran is evil and they needed to be dealt with. But a war has an actual declaration and we see too much media giving us the bytes by America giving us that there was not a war in play (really?) We know that the united States are based on laws, which they basically threw away when it suited their needs.

The U.S. Constitution is very clear that only Congress, not the president, has the power to declare war. But President Trump did not even consult with Congress before attacking Iran, let alone receive a congressional declaration of or even authorization for war.

This is the first setting, so as there is no war, it is merely an exercise in bombing civilians and the upcoming looting of oil. 

International law is equally clear. The Nuremberg trials following World War II determined that the “supreme international crime” was that of aggression. The International Military Tribunal ruled in 1946 that initiating a war of aggression differed from other war crimes because “it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole.” War crimes, crimes against humanity, and all the related international crimes, therefore, are understood to stem from that fundamental crime of going to war illegally. The United States went to war illegally. They are waging a war of aggression against Iran. The UN Charter declares that no country may attack another country, and that “all Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.” It also prohibits UN member states from using “the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.”

So we are there at the moment. I also took Israel out f the equation, Iran has been attacking Israel for decades and they now have the United States backing them. The UN is useless, they sided with all opposing Israel for so long, it is not to be considered a factor here. The United States did sign a charter voiding what they did on June 26, 1945, in San Francisco, California. It was signed by representatives of 50 nations at the conclusion of the United Nations Conference on International Organization, with the US Senate subsequently ratifying the treaty on July 28, 1945.

As such we see the clear markings of an illegal war. And the media has this clearly in their history banks, so whatever they do it now seen as invalid, let them chase their digital dollars, but as I see it, the media is now tax liable, and in many places it is 20% or more. Did they consider this?

As such we (the Commonwealth) needs to find a much better alliance. Whilst some might turn to Asia (China), I am mindful that a union with the Middle East is a much better fit. Unions with the UAE and Saudi Arabia might fit the Commonwealth charter better, I am against embracing Sharia law, but it is a low in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, so we need to be mindful that this is a setting we have to embrace the we are there and schools need to prepare for this shift, because this shift has never happened before. Even as we have 11th century hang ups on this, we need to move forward and moving forward with the United States is a one step movement into a debt driven setting. (USA is now 39 trillion in debt) and they are unlikely to be able to pay the interest in 2027. As such we are massively out of time and as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are setting up their tourism settings and the Commonwealth could be bringing a larger part of its 2.5 billion people to these regions (and taking them away from the USA) 

So, yes, this is speculation, but ask yourself, did you ever consider that the United States would become the instigator of an illegal war? Don’t get me wrong, Iran had to be taken down a few pegs, but we all agree that we are a nation of laws and there are ways to proceed, the fact that someone is waging water to get its hands on oil (whilst they claim they have enough) might be a step too far for several people and the Commonwealth is almost a third of the global population. So how desperate will the United States become when they realise they played the wrong song in a dancehall that is still set to the conservative settings it sees?

It is about time to select where we go to, I for one am a Commonwealthian and I go where more intelligent people (like PM Mark Carney, aka Marky Mark of the British Bank) tells us to go. I see his intellectual mastery of economics and as we see it, America is losing battle after battle against Canada, because whatever they have is not to confused with actual intelligence. 

And I foresee that the Commonwealth needs to take a side and in thesis settings for them there is the Middle East or there is China and I feel (a personal feeling) that China might not be the best solution for the Commonwealth. Don’t get me wrong they do a lot right, but whilst the EU is overturning the settings that the United States gave us concerning Huawei, TikTok and a few other vendors, there is a stage where some options need to be examined and whilst the USA is making acquisitions, it is them not others who are interfering with national interests and for the most we let them. Time to set a new stage, one that excludes the United States, I see that several changes are being made like FourEyes (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom) in a new shape of intelligence for these nations and as sick say the United States is no longer being considered as a valued source. But in business other settings will be required and here my vote goes towards the Middle East, because we are most likely more alike than unalike. I reckon that the Vatican might oppose that side, but they squandered their options as I see it. 

Is my speculation valid?

That remains to be seen. I think it is, but I am the one postulating that setting and before you go all high and mighty, consider this:

Were the attacks on Venezuela and Iran legal?
What solutions does the United States administration have to dilute $39 trillion.
And what losses will the United States see over the next 15 months?

Now consider that the more then one trillion interest that is due in 2026 and 2027 needs to be paid for?

So this is interest, not even a lessening of the debt. And was I see it, it is only getting harder in 2028 and now we add the cherry. As the United States is abstaining from NATO, how many bases and people will be made to move back to the USA? My ‘limited’ calculations give me the setting that these troops are around 65,000. Now they end up seeking jobs in the United States, and there is not enough place all over the USA to place them all, and this also implies a reduced return of investments in Europe. The US has to deal with over 100K dismissed staff from 2025 onwards and all to that thousands being replaced in the military. That is a decrease in revenue that might be too complex to calculate, but there will be an impact. So as others are reevaluating their stance towards the United States (Japan for one) what more losses in an age where a nation is almost unable to pay for its interest bill. So what happens when the United States defaults on a $39 trillion debt? I saw this a decade ago when out was merely $25 trillion. The picture wasn’t nice then, it is utterly ugly now. As I see it, the Commonwealth needs new alliances and it needs them fast. My vote goes towards the Middle East, but I reckon that many votes toward China are coming too. Whatever we do, we better do it fast. So, have a great day today.

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April 2, 2026 · 18:34

The idea is not novel

That is what I feel at present. CNBC gave us all 12 hour ago the ominous title ‘Trump is paying TSA agents — but where is the money coming from?’ (at https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/01/tsa-trump-dhs-shutdown-airports.html) The article is giving us a few sides, like:

Where does the money Trump is using come from? 
How much is available? 
How long can Trump continue to pay TSA agents if Congress doesn’t soon come to a deal?

You think this is a simple setting, but as I see it, it is not. It reeks like a Ponzi scheme. Paying one lot from a stack mean for other means. Now in normal settings we get this, pile one a has a surplus (or reserve) and it deals with a few items not meant for it, but I personally believe that CNBC uncovered part of the setting that was never meant to be seen by anyone, because it alerts the media to questions it was never meant to realise in their destiny for digital dollars.

An d personally I wonder what the budgeting departments can give the world in uncovering what is really happening, because as I personally see it, when any government is totaling their revenue towards a Ponzi scheme kind of balancing, we can deduce that the United States is now in its final game, desperate to survive whatever comes next. President Trump played (by some) an essential game to make The United States look important (or is that impotent?) The first game was Canada that it had to be part of these beautiful states somehow united and he had already a designation for this, their 51st state, a state bigger and more beautiful than any other, but the Canadians (bless them) were not falling into that trap. They were saved by their Prime Minister, who was the Governor of the Bank of England before he got back to Canada and he saw through President Trump like an adult watching a toddler trying to figure out the functions of a spanner. It was never a competition. Now that Canada was on alert, they were possibly alerting Denmark on what the United States had in mind for the rare earths in Greenland and they were willing to pay (yet no more than $0.01 on the dollar) as they lacked certain funds and Denmark got Europe to stand by them and get angry too. As such the expenditure tap of Europe was getting closed towards the United States of America, and now the United States arranged for two settings, the first was that more allies were furious with them and with the closed expenditure tap to the end date of the United States came rushing forward. But President Trump had lived by divide and conquer for most of his life, so he used bully tactics to get Venezuela to heel and Wall Street rejoiced for 5 minutes. The problem is that Venezuela has plenty of volatile sludge, but it is oil by another name and not that useful in the machines available to the United States. And another setting was thwarted.

So now we get to the current dilemma. Iran, all useful and none of it at the needs for the United States. So what does it do? It bombs Iran into the Stone Age and is now ready to invade Iran and now because it was forced (as some say) for the United States (as well as Israel) to came to the setting of the new colony of Kharg Island, it can tap from those billions of barrels of oil. But Iran casually included the guy states by attacking it and these now will demand their reparations to be funded thorough Iranian oil. I casually had another thought, why let the United States ‘win’ when we can stop Iran’s infrastructure and that will bring out the real culprit. As such I ‘bestowed’ IP on Saudi Arabia and the UAE so that they can get their Dirhams worth and in the mean time there is enough delay to bring the plight of the United States to bare, because the media does nothing to do this. I might not be as clever as Canadian Prime Minster Mark Carney (a multiple winner of economic awards), but I do have my own creative sides and I brought them to bare. 
So whilst others are lulled in a setting of sleep, I am seeing that CNBC has seen some of it and when others are starting to realise that “The White House has not laid out exactly where within the tax and spending bill the money is coming from, but Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the Center for American Progress, said there is only one plausible section that the administration could be citing. Buried deep in the more than 300-page measure is a section that sets aside $10 billion “for reimbursement of costs incurred in undertaking activities in support of the Department of Homeland Security’s mission to safeguard the borders of the United States.”” This document allegedly is covering the payment of several bills with that $10 billion, but siphoned in different ways the setting of a Ponzi scheme is met. So what is the Ponzi scheme?

A Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud that pays existing investors with funds collected from new investors rather than from actual profit earned. Promoters promise high, consistent returns with little or no risk, creating an illusion of success that attracts more capital until the scheme collapses due to a lack of new investors.

And as I personally see it, they are funding AI and their StarGate in similar ways. The funds have have dried up and the game is over, but this president (Wall Street too) don’t believe that the party will ever end, but the markers are there. 

So could I be wrong?
That remains to be seen, it is possible, but behind the ‘rhetoric’ and the film flam abilities of some to curdle milk, the audience is told to believe in a setting that is seemingly no longer there. And I believe that the United States is now playing with marbles they never owned that others have to pay for the setting they invoked. Like some sources give us ‘Trump Wants Gulf Allies to Pay US for War Despite Bearing Brunt of Iran Strikes?’ And the use of ‘might’ is overly used, but it is all he has left and I don’t agree. I gave the Saudi Arabia and the UAE ways to deal with Iran, paying the United States was never on my mind (or valid) and it is another setting we are given that the United States is running out of money and they have less and less in their allowance sack. As I see it, it is worth less than the empty sack.

So, whilst you are considering all the ways I might be wrong, the larger setting is ‘Could I be right?’ A setting that many are rejecting just out of the notion to reject it as the hard truth is too much to bare. Have a great day.

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April 1, 2026 · 15:02

And the losses continue

That is the setting that I now see coming. The losses are on the United States of America and their commander in chief (that guy in the White House) is to blame for what comes next. You see, there needs to be a consequence for being as stupid as some people are. To this effect I hand you the following. It was presented to me by SBS News (at https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/trump-tells-allies-to-go-get-your-own-oil-after-they-refuse-to-join-strikes-on-iran/chkb28a1q) where we see ‘Australia responds to Donald Trump’s ‘get your own oil’ tirade’ first there was the ignorant ploy which was presented to all of us by the BBC on March 8th 2026 (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dn3j04lydo) where we were given ‘Trump accuses Starmer of seeking to ‘join wars after we’ve already won’’ it was tactically a stupid move to make. He had no won yet and here he is blowing off the British navy (and its PM). This was given to us together with the quote ““The United Kingdom, our once Great Ally, maybe the Greatest of them all, is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday. “That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer – But we will remember.” We then get (on March 20th, by Al Jazeera at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/20/cowards-trump-slams-nato-over-lack-of-support-in-us-israel-war-on) the headline ‘‘Cowards’: Trump slams NATO over lack of support in US–Israel war on Iran’, which is of course a little weird as he had already proclaimed victory on March 8th, where we see “Trump has been calling for major US allies to help secure the safety of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz which Tehran has effectively blocked.” Here we get a slightly different setting. The attacks by the United States and Israel are not coming from a declaration war, President Trump needs US Congress for that. So NATO cannot get involved as the articles of war are almost clear as water and NATO does not have to get involved because there is no declaration of war. NATO could come to the aid of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and optionally Qatar if this was officially asked. But that comes with legislation of a slippery slope. NATO would have to go against its own ally the United States of America. Not a setting any of the NATO members are willing to entertain. It comes with the added ““Now that fight is militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk,” he wrote.” There he goes off again with his setting of a military won event. It seems that there was no victory and plenty of Iran was bombed but Iran never gave any noise of surrendering, in the meantime Saudi Arabia and the UAE are still attacked by Iran with missiles and drones. No act by either of them warrants that and no one seems to call Iran to the stage to hold Iran accountable. So now (through SBS) we get:

“Trump singled out the United Kingdom and France as unhelpful in the month-long war that has roiled global markets, driven up energy prices and seen Iran effectively close oil tanker traffic through the Strait. “All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Tuesday (local time).”

Here we get two new settings. The first one given is that we all buy American (never an option) or we take it from the strait of Hormuz under the guise of delayed courage. The second option is basically an invitation to plunder Iranian oil fields, which might be illegal in several ways. But there is a third option, likely overlooked by the United States.

Canada is the largest foreign supplier of oil to the United States, exporting roughly 97% of its crude oil exports—about 4.3 million barrels per day—to the U.S. in 2023. While the U.S. relies on Canadian heavy crude for many refineries, Canada is diversifying export routes via the trans mountain pipeline expansion. It is my suggestion that Canada delivers that oil to the Europe and the United Kingdom (at a price). This is direct revenue that Canada will enjoy and they don’t have to deal with some bully in the south. The UK being in the Commonwealth will likely like this solution (as will Australia) and if there is freedom to change venue (like in there is no contract stopping Canada) they can have a new customer making the United States less of a customer. We won’t bother the Middle East and both Europe, News Zealand and Australia will optionally this solution a few dollars per barrel cheaper (which is merely a speculative discount).

I wonder if the United States had a clue that this option is available to the countries and I reckon that President Trump looked at that setting from the start, did he not? It is a clear setting in the Art of War which was published around 2500 years ago. I feel stupid having to illuminate this track, but there is too much stupidity in the media, so I feel vindicated handing an optional smile solution to the Commonwealth, and I am always willing to hand any option so that PM Mark Carney does not have to deal with the United States of America. 

Oh, and the other lie that we see is “like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran,” but it was he who stopped the United Kingdom from sending help in the form of sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East, which came with the response “That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer” as such what is he crying about? 

In the meantime I considered through design two shapes of IP to be used on the roads of Iran to stop convoys, no bombing run required and as I see it, it would cause delay upon delay setting whatever comes from Russia via other roads delayed by weeks, if not months. And as far as I can see, the IP for harbours is still unchanged, so that is running along nicely. The rail version is still on route as well. So Iran is about to face its own forms of hardship beyond what they already have.

So whilst the losses continue, they are likely to hit the United States as well as Canadian oil will now find new roads into the hands of allies and President Trump clearly stated “buy from the U.S., we have plenty” as I see it, we would much rather buy it from Canada and if you have enough, you don’t need more oil from Canada and they can be the savior of the Commonwealth and Europe all at the same time. Sometimes life gives you a nice curveball.

So whilst the losses for the United States continue, they now have less to capture all over the globe and the next interest payment, which is projected to exceed $1 trillion in fiscal year 2026, or roughly 17% of total federal spending, is due soon.

Have a great day.

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