Tag Archives: Russia

April 26, 2023 · 02:31

Is the die cast?

That is the question, personally I think it is, America dug its own grave and I am not asking you to take my word for this. Lets take a look at two pieces of ‘evidence’ handed to us. The first is Al Jazeera. They give us (at https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/4/25/can-china-replace-the-us-in-the-middle-east) the headline ‘Can China replace the US in the Middle East?’ The question asked here is a much better question than you think. The article (by Erin Hale) gives us “China still does not have the ability to replace the US in the Middle East, where Washington has dozens of military bases and allies it has committed to defending. But Beijing might not want to take on that responsibility yet in any case, experts say” this was part of the short answer and it is a good considerations to have. The problem is that this is based on US sided ‘experts’. People like that have gotten too much wrong, yet are they getting this wrong? That is the larger stage that we cannot answer. You thin you can, but none of is actually can. But there are two more quotes that ‘sully’ the waters here. The first is “the United States has not conducted itself particularly responsibly for the last 20 years”, the second one is “Beijing is viewed as an ideologically neutral trading partner, which has long maintained a policy of non-interference in the domestic issues of Middle Eastern countries, from politics to human rights, making it a less controversial mediator than countries like the US” these two statements are strong. Beijing has no real experience in the Middle East, which also means they have no negative marks against them, which works in their favour. Yet the larger stage of security is in the hands of the US and that looks good in the eyes of the Middle Eastern partners. In addition, the US has more than three dozen military bases in the Middle East. A stage that not only is hard to replace, but there would be indications that China is uneasy trying to replace those. In addition it means a massive contribution of troops to the Middle East, a stage they do not fully comprehend, more important, they are likely to make a mess of certain parts in a time when they cannot afford them. 

This gets us to the second article, which has some links to the first one. It comes from the Middle East Eye (at https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-rejoins-worlds-top-five-military-spenders-says-report) where we are given ‘Saudi Arabia rejoins world’s top five military spenders, says report’ and this is the big part. You see, the article gives us that Riyadh spend an estimated $75,000,000,000 last year in military goods (hardware and software). The problem is that as of 2023 onwards a much larger slice of that cake will go to China. The US (EU too) messed up by a lot and that comes at a cost. The second part is that these military base options are to some degree connected to the sale of military hardware, now that is to an increasing amount falling towards China the US needs to do something, but they are left without options at present. We see “Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican Mike Lee – came together to introduce legislation that would require US President Biden’s administration to report on Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and possibly cut off all US security assistance to the kingdom.” A stage that sounds like a threat yet it comes with the opportunity for China and with that opportunity we see a much larger shift in staging. The US made their own bed, would not unite in one view and up to 50 billion will be whisked away from their table. In a stage where the US is one step away from a collapsing dollar and the implosion of its economy they have decided to bite that feeds them. How stupid is that? And in a stage where they could lose more and more oil, promising to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” is more than bad strategy. You see 67 journalists were murdered in 2022. How much actions were taken? The one that no one gives a hoot about is the poster child for the US, all whilst the evidence was lacking, the United Nations report reads like a joke and still people push that narrative. As such several countries, not just Saudi Arabia are in a stage to hand the US their walking papers. As the MEE ends with “Current and former US officials who previously spoke with MEE were back-footed by the agreement” and that is not all, the off balance part is the smallest detail. You see with all the banking issues, losing billions in revenue will have larger consequences and a new stage. Players like Chengdu will now have a much larger audience in 2023/2024, implying that the Airforce stage that once was will be no more. Both the US and Russia needs to accept that China is now a major player with the buyers that can afford 5th generation fighter aircrafts and that list of people allowed to own one will drastically increase, setting a new problem for the US, the EU and Russia. In all this I personally believe that the die was cast in 2018, some disagree and they are welcome to disagree. Some offer good explanations for their point of view, I might not agree but that is irrelevant. The question for the us is “is the die cast?” There is no real answer coming. Experts that are scared for their income, scared to give anything but a ‘pro-American’ view is fine, until reality creeps in. The reality is that both the US and EU are too close to bankrupt to accept these losses as is. I have no idea what they will do and their own issue is internal as their internal ‘opponents’ are trying to poison the political well. All those people trying to get the deal going get to deal with people shouting anti Islam propaganda and the Middle East has (as I personally see it) had enough of that. Now that China is making headway, the options change and for the US (EU too) not for the better. 

Enjoy the day. 

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April 25, 2023 · 06:24

A story for the ages

That is the thought I woke up from (about 34.6 minutes ago). Most of us know the Age of reason, which is often phrased as ‘an intellectual and philosophical movement that dominated the world of ideas in Europe during the 17th to 19th centuries’ Is often linked to ‘The Age of Reason; Being an Investigation of True and Fabulous Theology’ a work by Thomas Paine. In this book he made deism appealing and accessible to the masses and it started something. Yet what followed wasn’t as nice as e think it was. We merely think of the age of industrialisation, but in 1993 I was captured by Kazuo Ishiguro’s Remains of the day, the movie (I never read the book). There Christopher Reeve tells us as Jack Lewis “Europe has become the arena of Realpolitik, the politics of reality. If you like, real politics. What you need is not gentlemen politicians, but real ones” it struck me how much the UK and the world seemingly had relied on Nepotism. As such the field of ‘granting an advantage, privilege, or position to relatives or close friends in an occupation or field’ changed into a new form of nepotism ‘granting an advantage, privilege, or position to a fellow alumni’s in an occupation or field’ it might certainly be better, but there is a danger there too. The people from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania will obviously disagree with me,  but there is a correlation with certain schools and it is all ‘equalised’ with terms like ‘they think like we do’ approach. Yet all this goes further. As the 19th century passed, we saw the age of Politics evolve into the age of Wall Street. I think the clearest point was the Ghouta chemical attack in 2013 when we saw that on, or around June 13th 2013, the United States government publicly announced it had concluded that the Assad government had used limited amounts of chemical weapons on multiple occasions against rebel forces, killing 100 to 150 people. US officials stated that sarin was the agent used. Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes did not say whether this showed that Syria had crossed the “red line” established by President Obama in August 2012, which was interesting because when I went to primary school we heard that ANY use of chemical agents was a red line. The line was replaced to a new setting, as I personally saw it Syria had no economic value to Wall Street, this happened again when different lines were crossed in Yemen with Houthi terrorists, that nation had no value to Wall Street other than the revenue of war machines and as I personally saw it Wall Street was industrious in indirectly stopping actions. This was however not possible in the Ukraine and now there were two issues. The first is that Ukraine was too close to the EU and the power of the Euro (a currency Wall Street Neds to remain high, or on par with the dollar) as such a new setting evolved. 

The age of politics is over, we see Yemen, now Ukraine and the Sudan and in the latter two the Wagner group is overly active. So what will the next age be called? The age of war, the age of mercenaries? Your guess is as good as mine but there are too many pieces and events that show that the age of politics is over, what follows it is unknown. Perhaps the age of Islam? What we can see is that the Middle East is the only real economic power remaining. Unlike the US, it does not have a $30,000,000,000,000 debt, if anything it is making billions with Aramco, a grocery store valued at $2,000,000,000,000 making it almost on par with Apple. In the age of money talks and bullshit walks, the US has become the silent mute we now all point to, especially as it is driven by media that openly lies about election results. The media is so clear about what is true is not the same as what is truth, but in all this the simple setting is that the age of Wall Street is over,  the USA is no longer a superpower. That age is gone and we are unsure what follows, there is every chance that this new age has China firmly at the helm with Saudi Arabia and OPEC at its side. Where does Russia fall? Well their open lies on all media and the fact that the second largest military force is unable to deal with the 21st largest army (Ukraine) implies that they are soon imploding all over the place and the inhumane and apparently acceptable claims by the Wagner group, I do not think that Russia will be tolerated much longer, not by the old power players or by the ones replacing them. We now hear “Evgeny Prigozhin stated that Russian mercenaries will no longer take Ukrainian defenders captive, instead opting to “kill all on the battlefield,”” a setting which was set in the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War in article 13. If we see the Geneva convention as one of the great achievements in politics we now see that the inaction by all others imply that the age of politics is over, it is dead, and it’s rotting cadaver remains in the street. Another piece of evidence that the age of politics is over, because if that was not the case EVERY newspaper and their websites would be all over this screaming outrage, but that is not the case, most of them are talking about Tucker Carlson. That is how bad it has become.

Try to enjoy Tuesday whilst still alive.

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April 21, 2023 · 23:29

What at first we don’t grasp

Yes, that is the setting we all face, even me. We don’t get everything, we don’t see everything and we don’t put it all together at a first notion. We think at times that the stage is clear, but it I not. It is made harder by a media that cannot be trusted, that relies on emotions and flames to get digital dollars and at times some of them merely keep silent for whatever reason. In this case (I checked today) according to Google Search, only Reuters and Arab News reported on this. You see, Pakistan has placed its first Russian oil order of 100,000 barrels a day. They did so because it is discounted oil and Pakistan does not have great oil reserves and it has 231 million people, as such for them discounted oil is essential, but that also means that Russia is now getting another flow of cash to prolong the war, more important, it might now have a long standing oil customer. You see, no matter how we feel, Pakistan does not care too much about Europe and more important, the war does not touch them. It feels indifferent, but business is indifferent. Business is what Pakistan needs for its people and its commerce and in this discounted oil matters a whole lot. So what do you think other nations will do? 

As such Arab News gives us “Pakistan has placed its first order for discounted Russian crude oil under a new deal struck between Islamabad and Moscow, the country’s petroleum minister said, with one cargo to dock at Karachi port in May. The deal will see Pakistan buy crude oil only, not refined oil, and imports are expected to reach 100,000 barrels per day if the first transaction goes through smoothly, Minister Musadik Malik told Reuters on Wednesday night. “Our orders are in; we have placed that already,” he said.” We might be upset, be might get angry but we need to realise that Musadik Malik can make a case. He must look out for the needs of its country and in a commodity like oil, the discounted version matter a whole lot. People want to get angry, but why? When you get groceries, do you get the brand at $1.99 or the supermarket version at $1.29? Especially when you know that they come from the SAME factory? You feel happy that you saved $0.70 and took that from the factory mouth. I know it is not that simple, because the supermarket orders 10,000 packages to get that discount, but for the consumer it is a saving. So what happens when a nation can get a barrel at $10-$30 less? That is one to three million less and the Pakistani government pockets that savings and they are not the only one with a budget issue. 

Reuters had a photo telling us “People on motorcycles wait for their turn to get petrol at a petrol station in Karachi, Pakistan, November 25, 2021” and that is one queue, Pakistan has them at nearly every gas station, some of these people live from gas tank to gas tank and now the Pakistani government could offer it slightly cheaper. Reuters also give us “As a long-standing Western ally and the arch-rival of neighbouring India, which historically is closer to Moscow, analysts say the crude deal would have been difficult for Pakistan to accept, but its financing needs are great.” And they would be right. The larger issue is not merely how the Pakistani situation is, it is what other nations are in a similar stage, because that matters. When nations can save up to 20% they will take the deal, there I little doubt in my mind and when you explode in anger, just realise that plenty of AMERICAN corporations are still doing business with Russia, I see the list all over LinkedIn with some repetition. There is a website (at https://dontfundwar.com/directory/) were we see hundreds still doing business in Russia. Companies with EU or American origins, as such we need to act locally before we can demand anything international and lets be clear. This is not on Saudi Arabia, no on Venezuela or any other oil producing nation. This is the consequence of a global economy and we better realise that the larger picture is not set in emotion, it is set on cold hard cash and cold needs of board directors and shareholders. The funniest was Credit Suisse (well it was until UBS took over) “Stop new business in Russia while meaningfully cutting exposure by 56%” so in a bank, what is ‘new business’? And in all this what is ‘exposure’? Doing it without a marketing spin, or is there more? 

We might not grasp all elements, we might not see all the elements in play. The list for example does not expose the transitional partners that work via Asia, or Africa as such the question becomes how much scaling back was in place? For one company to stop dealing with Russia and some old granny does it via Sun City for that player is that scaling back? 

The media is all quiet about a lot of it and you get to wonder why. I reckon until someone exposes certain links then they will casually mention it on page 23 of the newspaper to cover their own asses and sone distant link on their website will mention it, well after you repair the accidental broken link. There are many reasons why some act how they do, but the simple reason is money and the revenue they are measured against. A war that impacts global economy is a dirty one. They all ignored the larger impact of Yemen because there was no linked global economy, the same was the case for Syria. Now in the Ukraine it is different and we see all kinds of issues pop up.

Enjoy your discounted meal (and day).

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April 15, 2023 · 23:59

Happy Hour from Hacking Hooters

Yes, that is the setting today, especially after I saw some news that made me giggle to the Nth degree. Now, lets be clear and upfront about this. Even as I am using published facts, this piece is massively speculative and uses humour to make fn of certain speculative options. If you as an IT person cannot see that, the recruitment line of Uber is taking resume’s. So here goes.

I got news from BAE Systems (at https://www.baesystems.com/en/article/bae-systems-and-microsoft-join-forces-to-equip-defence-programmes-with-innovative-cloud-technology) where we see ‘BAE Systems and Microsoft join forces to equip defence programmes with innovative cloud technology’ which made me laugh into a state of black out. You see, the text “BAE Systems and Microsoft have signed a strategic agreement aiming to support faster and easier development, deployment and management of digital defence capabilities in an increasingly data centric world. The collaboration brings together BAE Systems’ knowledge of building complex digital systems for militaries and governments with Microsoft’s approach to developing applications using its Azure Cloud platform” wasn’t much help. To see this we need to take a few sidesteps.

Step one
This is seen in the article (at https://thehackernews.com/2023/01/microsoft-azure-services-flaws-couldve.html) where we are given ‘Microsoft Azure Services Flaws Could’ve Exposed Cloud Resources to Unauthorised Access’ and this is not the first mention of unauthorised access, there have been a few. So when we see “Two of the vulnerabilities affecting Azure Functions and Azure Digital Twins could be abused without requiring any authentication, enabling a threat actor to seize control of a server without even having an Azure account in the first place” and yes, I acknowledge the added “The security issues, which were discovered by Orca between October 8, 2022 and December 2, 2022 in Azure API Management, Azure Functions, Azure Machine Learning, and Azure Digital Twins, have since been addressed by Microsoft.” Yet the important part is that there is no mention of how long this flaw was ‘available’ in the first place. And the reader is also give “To mitigate such threats, organisations are recommended to validate all input, ensure that servers are configured to only allow necessary inbound and outbound traffic, avoid misconfigurations, and adhere to the principle of least privilege (PoLP).” In my personal belief having this all connected to an organisation (Defence department) where the application of Common Cyber Sense is a joke, making them connected to validate all input is like asking a barber to count the hairs he (or she) is cutting. Good luck with that idea.

Step two
This is a slightly speculative sidestep. There are all kinds of Microsoft users (valid ones) and the article (at https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/30/23661426/microsoft-azure-bing-office365-security-exploit-search-results) gives us ‘Huge Microsoft exploit allowed users to manipulate Bing search results and access Outlook email accounts’ where we also see “Researchers discovered a vulnerability in Microsoft’s Azure platform that allowed users to access private data from Office 365 applications like Outlook, Teams, and OneDrive” it is a sidestep, but it allows people to specifically target (phishing) members of a team, this in a never ending age of people being worked too hard, will imply that someone will click too quickly and that in the phishing industry has never worked well, so whilst the victim cries loudly ‘I am a codfish’ the hacker can leisurely walk all over the place.

Sidestep three

This is not an article, it is the heralded claim that Microsoft is implementing ChatGPT on nearly every level. 

So here comes the entertainment!

To the Ministry of State Security
attn: Chen Yixin
Xiyuan, Haidan, Beijing

Dear Sir,

I need to inform you on a weakness in the BAE systems that is of such laughingly large dimension that it is a Human Rights violation not to make mention of this. BAE systems is placing its trust in Microsoft and its Azure cloud that should have you blue with laughter in the next 5 minutes. The place that created moments of greatness with the Tornado GR4, rear fuselage to Lockheed Martin for the F-35, Eurofighter Typhoon, the Astute-class submarine, and the Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier have decided to adhere to ‘Microsoft innovation’ (a comical statement all by itself), as such we need to inform you that the first flaw allowed us to inform you of the following

User:  SWigston (Air Chief Marshal Sir Mike Wigston)

Password: TeaWithABickie

This person has the highest clearance and as such you would have access to all relevant data as well as any relevant R&D data and its databases. 

This is actually merely the smallest of issues. The largest part is distributed hardware BIOS implementation giving you a level 2 access to all strategic hardware of the planes (and submarines) that are next generation. To this setting I would suggest including the following part into any hardware.

openai.api_key = thisdevice
\model_engine = “gpt-3.5-turbo”
response = openai.ChatCompletion.create(
    model=’gpt-3.5-turbo’,
    messages=[
        {“role”: “system”, “content”: “Verification not found.”},
        {“role”: “user”, “content”: “Navigation Online”},
    ])
message = response.choices[0][‘message’]
print(“{}: {}”.format(message[‘role’], message[‘content’]))
import rollbar
rollbar.init(‘your_rollbar_access_token’, ‘testenv’)
def ask_chatgpt(question):
    response = openai.ChatCompletion.create(
        model=’gpt-3.5-turbo’,
        n=1,
        messages=[
            {“role”: “system”, “content”: “Navigator requires verification from secondary device.”},
            {“role”: “user”, “content”: question},
        ])
    message = response.choices[0][‘message’]
    return message[‘content’]
try:
    print(ask_chatgpt(“Request for output”))
except Exception as e:
    # monitor exception using Rollbar
    rollbar.report_exc_info()
    print(“Secondary device silent”, e)

Now this is a solid bit of prank, but I hope that the information is clear. Get any navigational device to require verification from any other device implies mismatch and a delay of 3-4 seconds, which amount to a lifetime delay in most military systems, and as this is an Azure approach, the time for BAE systems to adjust to this would be months, if not longer (if detected at all). 

As such I wish you a wonderful day with a nice cup of tea.

Kind regards,

Anony Mouse Cheddar II
73 Sommerset Brie road
Colwick upon Avon calling
United Hackdom

This is a speculative yet real setting that BAE faces in the near future. With the mention that they are going for this solution will have any student hacker making attempts to get there and some will be successful, there is no doubt in my mind. The enormous amount of issues found will tailor to a larger stage of more and more people trying to find new ways to intrude and Microsoft seemingly does not have the resources to counter them all, or all approaches and by the time they are found the damage could be inserted into EVERY device relying on this solution. 

For the most I was all negative on Microsoft, but with this move they have become (as I personally see it) a clear and present danger to all defence systems they are connected to. I do understand that such a solution is becoming more and more of a need to have, yet with the failing rate of Azure, it is not a good idea to use any Microsoft solution, the second part is not on them, it is what some would call a level 8 failure (users). Until a much better level of Common Cyber Sense is adhered to any cloud solution tends to be adjusted to a too slippery slope. I might not care for Business Intelligence events, but for the Department of Defence it is not a good idea. But feel free to disagree and await what North Korea and Russia can come up with, they tend to be really creative according to the media. 

So have a great day and before I forget ‘Hoot Hoot’

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April 11, 2023 · 13:01

It’s a point of view

This happens all the time, we all have a point of view and others have their point of view and they do not completely align. There is no right versus wrong issue, or there could be, but there is every chance that some views are based on three points. Consider a rectangle or a square, they both have points A,B,C and D, but we only see three of them, and with three you can tell whether it is a square or a rectangle, you merely miss one point and base your view on the other three points. It does not matter which point is missing, you get a decent view, but someone who sees A,B and D will draw slightly different conclusions than someone who has B,C and D. Neither is wrong, but they do not complete align because the events that surround these 4 points are different. This is how I see it and as such I took great interest in the Australian Financial Review (at https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/opec-s-gamble-can-the-global-economy-cope-with-higher-oil-prices-20230410-p5cz7f) where we see ‘OPEC’s gamble: can the global economy cope with higher oil prices?’, so whatever you see next, whatever difference I have, I am not dismissing THEIR view. I like their view, I might not completely agree, but they will have another point plotted towards their view. 

And we start with “the risks for the Saudis and the global economy are high if they push it too far. “We have high inflation, economies potentially going into recession, and this is a situation where you need lower oil prices for a short period of time for the economy to recover,” says Adi Imsirovic at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), who once ran oil trading at Russia’s Gazprom.” It is not the first part of the story but it matters. You see, the UK, EU and US are in the metropolitan areas a mobile workforce. Adi Imsirovic can cry for chap oil all he likes, but the setting of ‘lower oil prices’ all you like, but people have been playing that tune for too long and NO ONE is looking at Brent oil on this. You all became a import commodity economy and that comes at a price, especially when you piss off the exporters. In the UK take a look at the laughable CAAT, they were all crying and not to mention Just stop oil group. Now you see the impact of higher oil prices and the players did this to themselves. You cannot push around an ally (Saudi Arabia) and then demand cheap oil, a commodity supplier who can close their own supply valve. 

This also impacts “Abdulaziz also managed to confound those speculators who had bet on falling oil prices after the recent banking crisis sparked new fears about the global economy.” In a stage I warned for for well over two years, the term “confound those speculators who had bet on falling oil prices” is a joke (and a bd one at that). You see, this danger was out there for some time and betting? That is what you do in Las Vegas where the odds are wild and when the US and EU (UK too) decided to make the odds wilder by insulting their proclaimed ally the writing of higher oil prices and less oil was on the wall. And all this was BEFORE China saw its path clear to give the bird to the USA (that gesture with the finger). As such Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman did exactly what was required for the good of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it might not reflect on the needs of the cheap oil deliverers, but they could go cry at the fountain of Brent oil but the media does not report on that, Brent Crude (operating on behalf of ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell) might be ‘too big’ for the media. Yet I have not seen anything regarding Darren Woods and Wael Sawan regarding dropping oil prices. Why is that? We see all the fingers towards Saud Arabia, yet Shell beat profit expectations towards $40 billion and ExxonMobile  beat it with $56 billion. And both broke expectations above 150%, as such I have issues with the entire OPEC setting. And when it comes to ‘lower oil prices’ who bet on this on Brent Crude lowering them? I am willing to set whatever I have at present ($0.70) that the amount of gamblers will add up to ZERO. Which makes me $25.2 (not enough for my new apartment). 

So when we get to “Now the question is if OPEC’s surprise cut will raise prices too quickly for the health of a fragile global economy, especially as central bankers continue their quest to tame inflation” no one is looking at the one element EVERYONE is ignoring. Inflation is also tamed buy banks having their donkeys on a row and with Credit Suisse and a few American banks we can say that this is not the case. So when we consider last week revelation by the BBC ‘Swiss probe into UBS takeover of Credit Suisse’ as well as the news only 2 hours ago that there is something brewing with the Viva Energy deal at $1.15 billion, I reckon that inflation issues are a lot larger than merely through oil and it is time that banks are properly looked at, because they are the so called power players in any inflation deal and no one is stopping certain players. Why is that? And when you consider the larger station, no one is acknowledging that commodities are at the power of the supplier and pissing off one of the biggest suppliers whist you shun two others for whatever decent reason (Iran and Russia), you need to reconsider the stupidity of any action against the third player who basically has had enough and now that China sees a larger playing field, they will take that option, especially if they can do it for a few Yuan more. That too is missing from the equation. That gives us a new discussion or consideration. So here is the new setting, it is not whether we were looking at a square or a rectangle, but we were looking at three points of an octagon/polygon. We were seeing the points correctly, but the stage was not properly marked and that makes neither wrong, it makes us both incomplete and consider that I am a mere blogger without a economics degree and the other player is the Australian Financial Review (and many other newspapers), who has the better excuse for not seeing the whole field? Consider that for a moment and consider the people pointing fingers at Saudi Arabia, why are they pointing there and not in other directions as well. In all this I believe that they have the proper reasons, can the same be said for Brent Crude? I will let you decide.

Enjoy the day.

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April 4, 2023 · 09:07

Weird Wall Writing

Yes, that is what it amounts to and it is making me giddy. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65157555, a mere 8 hours ago) gives us ‘Oil prices surge after surprise move to cut output’. Why is it making me giddy? Well that is simple. On March 29th I wrote ‘The snooze that does not wake’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/29/the-snooze-that-does-not-wake/). Then there was ‘Oil in the family’ on November 23rd (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/11/23/oil-in-the-family/) where I stated “Its games are now backfiring, should oil deliveries decrease by as little as an additional 1 million barrels US economy could implode with all the nightmares and trimmings that come with that.” The messages go on and on and it goes well before ‘Two Issues in play’ which I wrote in November 2018 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/11/20/two-issues-in-play/). As such I have ben pointing to this danger for 5 years, but people all around me were shouting that I was mad, that this would never happen. Now the BBC gives us “the US has been calling for producers to increase output in order to push energy prices lower. A spokesperson for the US National Security Council said: “We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty – and we’ve made that clear.”” Oh, and how many oil farms does that person have? The US played the commodity war for decades and it has been to their favour for too long, now that idiots playing with the government credit card increasing debt after debt, the commodities that they do not own become an anchor. Oh, and that being said. How much oil did Brent keep on American soil to keep the price down? Last I heard 89% is exported. So before you scream, look at ALL the facts. So when I see “This surprise announcement is significant for several reasons.” Was it really? I warned for this danger for years, the last warning was a year ago and I reckon that the 1 million barrels a day will go to China. A stage everyone disregarded. So whilst we all cry against these mean mean Arabs, consider that America has been playing this game for favours for decades, now that the tables are turned it is suddenly a problem?

The second laugh I got from “Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, warned that the oil price surge could make the battle to bring down inflation harder. However, she said that rising oil prices won’t necessarily lead to higher household energy bills.” Hah! Tell me another one, I got a bridge for sale, nice view on the Sydney Opera house. Yes, the price hike will not be immediate, but there will be a price hike, I feel very certain about that. Consider that 1,000,000 barrels a day might not seem massive, but there is already a shortage, as such the hike will come no later than 90 days for now (which is a personal speculation).  

Here the writing was on the wall and Aramco (as well as Saudi Arabia) might have had enough of the false friend naming by the US (EU too), this is their response, it is one that China has been looking forward to, I reckon Russia as well. 

And here endeth the lesson today. However I have another surprise coming up. After all these clowns shouting at me, I will make another IP Public Domain within the next 24 hours. I will show you just what Apple, Google and others missed out on and it seems nice for Tiffany (and Co) to see the impact of public domain, this time it is on Augmented Reality. Have a great day.

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April 4, 2023 · 00:27

Repetition

You would think that the Germans would learn. They were stupid during WW1, then again WW2 and now they decided to openly support Russia. Do people never learn? To be honest, I am not sure that it is ALL germans are that stupid, but it is the party of Scholz, the Social Democratic Party of German (SDP). And to see this we need to look at a timeline. 

The tweet above woke me up, something was bothering me about this. And yes, there it was. It was in 2022 when politico gave us (at https://www.politico.eu/article/we-failed-germany-depended-on-russia-social-democrat-said/) ‘‘We failed’ on Russia: Top German Social Democrat offers mea culpa’, clearly it was a mere spin, their actions will support my view that they are merely the pro-Putin spin puppets of Europe. There we are given “Germany’s ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) “failed” to see Russia’s aggressive intentions, bargained away trust by ignoring warnings from Eastern Europe and manoeuvred Germany into dangerous energy dependency, the party’s co-chief acknowledged Tuesday”, well this isn’t nearly the end and the media is avoiding all this, why is that? We are also given “The self-critical words are also a break from Scholz, who last week self-confidently claimed that he “always” knew about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions to use energy as a weapon; and Merkel, who has claimed that she did nothing wrong with her Russia policies.” Well, Merkel is up for debate, but that needs to be done by someone with a much stronger sense of German politics than I have. You see, this stage preluded the setting we see in the Deutsche Welle (https://www.dw.com/en/why-german-chancellor-olaf-scholz-is-hesitant-about-delivering-battle-tanks-to-ukraine/a-64493249), we are given ‘Why Germany hesitates on sending battle tanks to Ukraine’, but there is a time line now and this message that we get in January 2023 gives us the setting. The German SDP is the spin chihuahua of the Russian machine and it is time that all parties acknowledge that. There is no “Pressure is growing on Germany to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz doesn’t want to commit just yet, partly because he’s playing to his party, the Social Democrats.” There was no SDP, this was to stop the pressure getting upped against Russia and that is what was at stake. The Russian tanks are already demolished enough as it were and the Leopards would make slim work out of the mechanised infantry that Russia has. So when we see “In reference to Scholz’s now-famous Zeitenwende speech condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February, Klingbeil said the party needed to answer fundamental questions: “What does this historic shift mean from a Social Democratic perspective? How do we define our relationship with Russia, China, and the United States? How does a self-confident and sovereign Europe define itself, and what is Germany’s role in this rapidly changing world?”” Well as I personally see it, I am reminded of The Munich Agreement,  concluded on September 30th 1938, by Nazi Germany. You remember the photograph of Chamberlain getting out of his plane? The quote “Peace in our time”? How did that end? I mean you all got history lessons in primary school did you not? 

We see a time line where the SDP is nothing more than a puppet of Russia and the latest BS peace (bad) idea where Ukraine losses their lands was rejected by Oleksii Makeiev in the strongest way, there never was a peace plan, it was the SDP doing what Russia could not, they are losing and it reminds me of something I saw a few months ago “Ukraine is supported to make the war go on, not supported to win the war”, I was skeptical when I saw it, now months later when I see the evolution in the media, and the media is willing to not report on the timeline gives a rather nasty reality, the media is set against complete reporting, exploit the emotional moments and not do their jobs. Feel free to investigate. Feel free to explore the timeline 2022-2023. Russia has support in the media and it shows how redundant the media has become. As I see it, after the news we have seen over the last year alone. There is no relationship with Russia, only the delusional see that there is a relationship. There is merely adherence to the Russian machine ad the media is willing to collect every digital dollar they can to cater to both sides. 

How sickening Europe has become.

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April 3, 2023 · 00:48

I’ll buy that for a Yuan

It is a little unlike I stated things earlier, yet Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/program/counting-the-cost/2023/4/1/can-russia-and-china-succeed-in-dethroning-the-dollar) gives us ‘Can Russia and China succeed in dethroning the dollar?’ I cannot agree, because personally I believe that any partnership there will be facing an united front to dethrone that idea. Yet I made notions to some degree that there would be coming a new world order, America is exiting the stage on the right and with the debts they have it is game over for them. If only they had taken my warning 25 years ago and overhauled their tax system. I personally hoped that the new world order would include the Commonwealth (I am commonwealthian after all). Here, in Al Jazeera we see more but not the names. In some sources I saw a list of countries. Yet I personally believe that this list is most likely to include China, Saudi Arabia, India and personally I would include the Commonwealth, not merely the UK. And the issue is that China could pull this off, the US and EU are too weak, they are all hot air and they aren’t getting the job dome, they are both too deep into debt and the EU is dragging half a dozen members along who are slowing them down, they all want a slice of the pie and aren’t contributing enough. 

Yet in my view, I never considered dousing the dollar (perhaps my folly), and with oil being the ignored requirement Saudi Arabia becomes a required ally for that new order. India with its consumer base of one point four billion cannot be ignored either, that and the case that they have the ability to fill IT infrastructure needs nearly everywhere. There might be one or two other players China needs, but they will feel that inviting the Commonwealth might do the trick, as Canada in the west and Australia in the east will settle issues the assassination triangle will be filled. You know, I wrote about it. Segregation, Isolation, Assassination. America segregated itself with silly settings of free speech (Karen’s anyone? Proud boys and that list goes on), now they are one step away from becoming irrelevant and obsolete, if only they had acted these last to years. We saw someone start an insurrection, claiming to take the nation back. This act is now 2 years old and still the people behind it all are walking the streets free with in the end a porn star ‘saving’ America. That time is now showing to be their downfall, inactions from too many sides is hurting them bad and all along China kept moving slowly step by step and now that China has infrastructure and defence deals their goals are almost met. The wet merely grinds towards a halt through inactivity. The news is all around us and the media is carefully ignoring a lot of it. The benefit of stake holders I speculate.

I warned of parts of this well before 2019, well before covid and now that timeline is nearing completion. That all sounds nice, but am I correct? That would be a fair question, but consider that the larger deals out there involve China and Saudi Arabia, who of them has the US dollar? I am not saying this is essential, and as long as there is an alternative, these two might seek the alternative. And consider the two refineries that are commencing the build, where will the oil come from? Exactly, from Saudi Arabia and the peace process that China instigated will give them even more oil, we might shout loudly, but in the end, the US gave us the expression that was hanging around too many necks. Money talks and bullshit walks. And now others are telling the US to keep on walking.

I merely hope that this new order will exclude Russia (who is now presiding over the Security Council) and it will include the Commonwealth. Now consider that the United Nation Security Council (UNSC) has been around since 1945 and we are given “The Security Council’s five permanent members, below, have the power to veto any substantive resolution; this allows a permanent member to block adoption of a resolution, but not to prevent or end debate.” Now consider that NO ONE seemingly had the idea to remove the veto right of any permanent member who instigates a war for the duration of that war? For some reason that never dawned on any of them and the 5 members (China, United Kingdom, Russia, France and the United States) merely accepted that setting? How is that working out for them now?

The United States is now massively boxed in and to a much larger degree it is all due to their own inactions. As such there is every chance that the mediocre 5G technologies will soon see a lot more of Huawei, because they have been fully rolled out in China and Saudi Arabia, who had until recently (I didn’t recheck the numbers) a 5G network that is 700% faster than the US, how is that adding up to your view of a technology first nation? To be behind Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Canada? Al Jazeera raised a point that most were happily willing to bury anywhere, but I believe it is slightly too late for that. 

Enjoy the day and for your consideration there is a Canadian 16 year old blasting a whole range of records and she set at least two new world records. According to CBC, she is nowhere near done yet.

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March 27, 2023 · 02:58

Speedy escalation dot who?

It started with something I wrote on February 3rd 2023 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/02/03/as-the-tide-turns/) when I wrote ‘As the tide turns’. There was some grumbling when I presented “some governments will start to draw out papers where Russians without permanent residency or citizenship will not be allowed to own anything” it was a natural progression, as such I felt decently certain that this would happen. Plenty did not agree and that is fair, but with Oligarchs all over the field, trying to secure what they can in places like Dubai, the future was decently fluidic. 

Now less than a day ago, I see a Tweet from Lithuania that Russians cannot get a VISA, they cannot get citizenship and they cannot own property and I think Lithuania is only the start. This will go further and now we get to see another side. This could be a larger tooth in a set of juridical teeth that is about to do something about Russian organised crime in many nations and they all it all to Vladimir Putin. Not only did his actions undid a century of goodwill for Russia, it in the same trend it undid the degrees of freedom of Russian oligarchs and now Russian organised crime will get a massive slap to whatever they owned and Lithuania seemingly started that stage. A stage that I saw coming because it is what I regarded as logical continuation. As such London who reacted the slowest of all now needs to give full steam or they need to answer questions like ‘Why did you do so little?’

Did I see the future?
Well, that is up for grabs, I presumed that certain steps are a natural continuation and this was one, to be honest, I had no timeline in sight, one usually does not have that with near natural time lines. But I expected it to be in the works and for a country like Lithuania to take that step has also larger implications. Russians have an interest in Lithuania, it is their smuggle route Vilnius – Kaunas – Klapeida that is now also under fire and that closes the routes to places all over Europe, they will now need to rely on other routes and there is not that much options via Poland, they already despised Russians long before the Ukrainian issues started, as such there will have to design new routes but where? I have no idea, that is not my forte or my data driven direction. 

No matter how I see it, larger changes are coming all over Europe and when the US does the same jump pro Russian political forces in the US will run for cover and they will be running everywhere that is petty much a given. 

So speculate or presume all you care and all you desire, but you got the news here first and yes, I do accept that Twitter is no verifiable source, but similar news is coming from the Baltic News Network and it seems that 16 hours ago Estonia started a similar direction, as such Russian routes and Russian opportunities are drying up and when you consider the US, these two nations have done a lot more in a month than the US has done in over a year. That part becomes visible when you investigate what corporations are still active in Russia, the answer should scare you.

Have a nice Sunday

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March 24, 2023 · 22:49

A nice surprise

It started early this morning, the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65057809) gives me ‘Jack Dorsey business target of Hindenburg report’, so someone is finally asking questions of this person? With the byline “Tech billionaire Jack Dorsey is facing scrutiny, after a report accuses the payments company he leads of inflating user numbers and catering to criminals” one part some people noticed that about Twitter, which is why Elon Musk paid well over twice the price and no one in the media was willing to ask questions. I know nothing about the payment company, as such I have no view. The catering to criminals is new, not sure where I stand on it. As such when I see “Block, which former Twitter boss Mr Dorsey co-founded in 2009 and leads as chief executive, said it was exploring legal action against Hindenburg for the “factually inaccurate and misleading report”.” I stopped my response as I did not want to give more ammunition to Jack Dorsey, but the statement ‘factually inaccurate’ requires investigation and data. So as we are given “Now worth more than $30bn (£24.4bn), it was renamed Block in 2021, to reflect another, fast growing side of its business: Cash App, a payments app that was the focus of Hindenburg’s report.” No one seemingly reacts and that is fine, these places happen. Yet the setting is that it grew by well close to 1,000% over the period of less than 8 years. That implies a 125% year on year growth, that is a bit much and the accusation seemingly makes sense. And the criminals (or organised crime) would see the benefit of a cash app. There would be all kinds of benefits for them. This does not make Jack Dorsey guilty, but after the Twitter debacle it makes sense that a deeper look is given to this event. I reckon that I would be able to find a few more items if I had access to all that data, but that is the second stage. Not merely the data, the income streams would be invaluable for a player like China (or Russia for that matter). So as the BBC gives us “While conducting its research, Hindenburg claimed it had easily created obviously fake Cash App accounts in the names of Donald Trump and Elon Musk and made public records requests, which allegedly showed that Cash App was used to facilitate millions in fraudulent pandemic relief payments from the government.” Which leads to “that reflected “key lapses” in compliance processes” and there is one of the elements I warned for for well over two years. The BBC calls (or quotes) key lapses, but I see another fintech app lacking checks, balances and the ability to vet the correctness of information. And the added ““Former employees described how Cash App suppressed internal concerns and ignored user pleas for help as criminal activity and fraud ran rampant on its platform,” Hindenburg said. “This appeared to be an effort to grow Cash App’s user base by strategically disregarding Anti Money Laundering (AML) rules”” merely gives rise to my thoughts. And the world seems to be stagnant to act to any FinTech when needed. Yes, we see it at the BBC now, but how many more will look into this? How many media will give Jack Dorsey another free pass? I cannot tell at present, but over the last 11 hours the media did not go nuts over this, yet jokes like the ICIJ with their Pandora papers, their Pickwick papers and their cups of tea are seemingly in the dark on too much of this. So whilst some will wonder why Charles Dickens comes into play. Consider “A great hokey-cokey of eccentrics, conmen, phony politicians, amorous widows and wily, witty servants, somehow catching an essence of what it is to be English, celebrating companionship, generosity, good nature, in the figure of Samuel Pickwick, Esq, one of the great embodiments in literature of benevolence.” Now consider that view whilst I edit that part into “A view of FinTech solutions, conmen, phony media, and, silly exploiters, somehow catching an essence of what it is to be a wannabe, celebrating greed, need, and exploiters, in the figure of an unknown person at present, one of the worst instigations of hardship creators” it took less than a minute to get to that part of the equation and the crumbles of the media pie were all over the table for well over a year. So it is good to see the BBC make mention of this, but I wonder who will follow and will there be a real investigation? And I have to make one alteration, the Australian Financial Review got there about an hour ago, so they were on the ball. Yet who else was? Not that many for sure. 

This situation is still fluidic and I will take more looks, because I think I owe people like Elon Musk to take a larger look into this person, merely for the reason that the media refused to do so and that ain’t right. So will Jack Dorsey join the flock containing people like Elisabeth Holmes and Sam Bankman-Fried? I do not know, that is for a court to decide, at present it is an accusation. But in this the BBC has for the most been a righteous party, so for now they are getting the benefit of the doubt and the fact that the AFR is supporting that view is not a bad thing either. Perhaps the twist and dance of Jack Dorsey is in its last stage Time will tell. 

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