Tag Archives: Saudi Arabia

October 30, 2023 · 22:29

Out of two issues

I am confronted with 2 issues. The first one passed my eyes a few days ago. It came from Arab News (at https://arab.news/946db) where we are given ‘Saudi authorities seize 3.8 million amphetamine tablets in Riyadh’. This is the second event in a year and my doubts are increasing. Not on the Saudi government. What drug dealer ships in one go enough tablets to make over 10% of a population an addict? Weirdly apart from having no knowledge in this, the little knowledge I have comes from a video game named Elite. There we could ‘smuggle’ decently safe 2% of the cargo as narcotics. As such you could ‘decently’ safe smuggle up to 500Kg in a 20 ton carbo haul. There is another matter. This is either done by a really stupid Saudi (with a lot more money than common sense) or this is something else. I personally belief that this is something else. We see the ‘market’ value, but the people with other interests will merely have the manufacturing costs as an expense. 

You see, if this was a real exercise, it would have made sense to merely smuggle 0.1% of that haul per shipping and it would most likely go right, as such I personally feel that these people were always going to get caught, especially in a nation like Saudi Arabia, a nation with zero tolerance towards narcotics. 

Then the quote “Eleven defendants involved in these activities were arrested. They include seven residents of Syrian nationality, one resident of Nepalese nationality, and three citizens in Makkah, Riyadh, Qassim, Hail and Al-Jawf.” My personal belief is that a government hostile to Saudi Arabia is trying to make Saudi Arabia look bad. This might account for the 7 Syrians and one Nepalese. At that point I wonder how the remaining three were EXACTLY involved. Consider that this is a highly volatile situation. Would YOU trust foreigners to make you run such a risk on you? This is not about foreigners, but lets face it, Saudi’s are for all the right reasons not the most trusting in the world and I expect that the Nepalese person might not be Islamic. Too many red flags are going up and I cannot shake them. 

I wonder what deep investigations with something like Palantir Gotham (if it is still called that) would uncover. My thoughts go towards the manufacturer, 3.8 million tablets is (according to some) set to a manufacturing cost of $3 per tablet. So someone handed over $12 million with a 99% certainty to get caught. It does not make sense, $12,000,000 leaves a trail. There is close to no way that it remains invisible, as such Palantir Gotham is one solution to get somewhere. The reason for thinking in this direction is that this is the second catch within a year. Someone has too much money and someone else acquired a lot of money, way more than some hauls. The largest bust in America was a year ago and involved a little over 650,000 pills. That in a nation with over 300,000,000 people makes ‘sense’, still it was a lot, so to see over 600% in a nation with only 10% of that population makes absolutely no sense at all to me. So, I am in a setting where I believe that someone is out there making Saudi Arabia look bad. I have no idea who, or why. My blinkers make me think the only direct (former) enemy is Iran, but that has no foundation in evidence of any kind, merely a gut feeling. But someone was willing to spend well over 10 million twice over to get that done, it is more than I will ever make in a lifetime (unless Amazon, Kingdom Holdings or Tencent Technologies buys my IP). And all this is based on the purity being average, if these pills were more pure, the price tag changes a lot. 

Enjoy the day before Halloween.

 

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October 29, 2023 · 00:05

War never changes

I was about to look into something that bothered me in Saudi Arabia when news hit me. That news stopped me in my tracks. You see it is 15 years ago today that Bethesda launched Fallout 3. I had never forgotten about that game, I even missed it to some degree. Fallout 3 after Oblivion was a massive step forward and together they were the start of Skyrim. As Bethesda became a Microsoft subsidiary, Elder Scrolls VII: Restoration became lost to them and I started to push that game in parts towards public domain. But there was one part that was never part of this. The introduction and Fallout 3 reminded me on how important the introduction was. The entire introduction is seen in Vault 101. A simple but strong setting to get you into the game, to start the narrative and to give away a clue or two. I had forgotten about that part, I had forgotten on the importance of a start. In Dune (the book) the beginning is given to us as “A beginning is the time for the most delicate care that the balances are correct.” In the 1984 movie we hear “A beginning is a very delicate time” both are correct. I had never forgotten either, but I see that I overlooked parts of that. I didn’t in the movie I create ‘How to assassinate a politician’ or the TV series ‘Keno Diastima’ in both those settings the introduction is the start and the beginning are the connected prequels. There I have that space, in gaming you do not. In Restoration the game in the very beginning reflects back to Oblivion, a game too often overlooked. Bethesda did a really good job (until they became part of Microsoft). 

As such there were solutions. As a separate game it becomes a different puppy and that had be going. The entire setting is no longer on the elder scrolls list, as a separate game you need to set a different schooling and I did a dissimilar introduction, but now it becomes a much larger station. So what happens when we create not one, but three introductions? When we create introductions for the choices made we get a new gaming setting. We create a smaller infusion of longevity and that is the first step to LTG (Long Term Gaming) that is the stuff that streamers (Amazon, Tencent Technologies) require. Streaming relies on at least 2-3 LTG games and Microsoft has two, when we take those options away by creating a real LTG, we get a new setting, we deprive Microsoft of revenue, something they desperately need after spending $69,000,000,000. Soon they will be haemorrhaging all over the place and denied revenue is one, the other I keep for later. Those two will push Microsoft over the edge and I am driven to that because they invaded our safe gaming space by pushing THEIR needs on all gamers at the expense of everyone else. That angered me, they did nothing wrong in the legal sense, but they did in the spiritual sense and when Tencent technologies and Indies programming for them get that IP (as I am making it public domain) the Game pass loses value, especially as they denied certain games to be there in year one. The greedy will be served, that is what I always believed and now I am making it a reality. And as Microsoft seemingly invested $13,000,000,000 in genAI there shores are stacking up and a few more bad news (like missed revenue and less customers) will set their doomsday clock to 0:01, which works well for me in this case. As I said once before, I will hand my IP to Saudi Arabia for 35% of the value, before I will let Microsoft near it for 165% of that value and making a lot of it public domain works well for me, I might not get a dime of that, but Microsoft cannot make exclusive IP claims when it was published and that is the part everyone forgets about. You see “Software patents for computer-implemented inventions are treated as typical patent applications and must pass the same tests of novelty and inventiveness.” You see, when something is on the internet or a blog, it fails the novelty test. Microsoft will have to share space and cannot claim anything. I open the space for indie developers and they can go wherever they want to go and with thousands of indie developers in China, Tencent technologies will have an advantage and that mean more trouble for Microsoft.

They were warned, but they were eager to ignore everyone to the request of their board of directors. In the end they lose 5 times over. Apple took the tablet, Amazon the Web systems (AWS), Sony took the console, Tencent technologies is about to take streaming services (GaaS) and Google is biting into their office revenue (not as much as I hoped, but still). Bleeding on 5 sides and I will (hopefully) add two points of pressure. In the end their $82 billion investment will come up short. Yes GenAI is all the rage, but it needs a pedestal to grow from and that pedestal is vanishing fast. I wonder which banks will buckle first. Wall Street is at present obsessed with AI, but soon they will realise that this setting needs a platform top start from and the Microsoft platform is waning that much is a given all over. I wonder how long they will be able to keep the spin up. At some point these banks want evidence and if FTX is anything to go by, a lot of banks are starting to get worried, not in the least by my speculated weights of banks with too much US treasury bonds. We see the news on how 10-year treasury  bonds are a green light, but are they really? When that goose sparks a lot of people will be without savings and I fear that that moment is not too far away, giving more added pressure for Microsoft to perform. Consider that the ‘investments’ requires them to make AT LEAST 4 billion just to pay for the interest. Now consider that the media gives us that they made 198.3 billion USD, you would think that this is a no brainer and I would agree. Now consider that they lost 5 times over (6 if you include Bing) to competitors. They are still making some money, but the numbers aren’t adding up. Bing currently has a market share of 3.02%, which is nothing. There are too many cost issues that are not registering as I personally see it. So when we look at the whole picture, they are seemingly bleeding all over and the numbers cause me to show question marks. So am I wrong? I could be, but Microsoft has become too big, everyone is shouting against Amazon and Google, but they stay silent against Microsoft and they just got a new bigger player. 

War never changes the premise is sound, but you win the war by changing the stage the other one is stepping on, or you diffuse its support systems and the others all forgot one thing, the population is a support system in this war and Tencent Technologies is about to come into this field, Amazon had options for several years. They squandered it on I know not what. Now Tencent Technologies optionally with Huawei will get a larger stage to work from, all whilst the Microsoft stage is shrinking. As the middle East turned to China, Microsoft lost even more and that is what too many are trying to be in denial of. I wonder what Microsoft loses by the start of 2024, it will be something but I have no idea what they will lose at present. 

Enjoy the weekend.

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October 25, 2023 · 23:51

The alignment of views

That is what I am setting this conversation up for. Well conversation? As the blogger this is my monologue, a monologue plain and simple. I had another idea regarding the approach to gaming IP, but that ill be for another day. 

Today I am talking about the ABC article (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-25/iran-saudi-china-middle-east-war-actress-nazanin-boniadi-profile/102996008). I am using this example for the simple reason that ABC is a good media outlet, they try to give us the real settings. As such taking the article apart in a different way might bring the points better across to the readers. 

You see, the media has squandered respectability, they squandered credibility and they squandered reliability. Not all media mind you, but a lot of them all decided to courtesan the digital dollar (whoring seems so harsh). In that setting we have a much larger station, but lets loo at the article. 

‘Actress Nazanin Boniadi on why China shouldn’t be mediator in the Middle East’ is the title.

Point 1
“Boniadi, who has dedicated much of her working life to advocating for human rights, including in Iran.” So who is Nazanin Boniadi? Is she an influencer? I never heard of her. Perhaps she is for real, but I cannot tell.

This is a setting that is partially on me. I never heard of her, but the larger media is using ‘influencers’ to taint the stories we see. It is a populist agenda that we are too often given (not accusing ABC of this) and as such we can no longer tell the difference between real, fake and deep fake. Populist sources are all about the flames, all about emotions and the larger corporations (as well as some governments) will give added ‘benefits’ to any anti-China story, that much is a given. That does not mean that there isn’t any valid anti-China materials out there. But the waves of deception have grown to a degree where we can no longer tell the difference. 

Point 2
““I think we will have to worry about autocracies taking that top spot in the world, and what that would look like for the rest of us,” Boniadi says.”

This could be seen as a valid question. Yet the sentiment is on ‘autocracies’ and the issues is that America and the EU have become such a mess that they cannot even stop in-fighting. They cannot decide on whether to counter Russia or hand over their governments to Putin, a sore setting indeed and the media is always there to push any flame that they can. You see China is regarded (to many) as a system of people’s congress with a unified state power. A communist nation. We can think what we want, but the setting of “a system of government by one person with absolute power” remains a debatable one. You see that is OUR point of view but others (especially in China) seem to believe that country’s recent economic achievements have actually come about because of, not despite, China’s authoritarian form of government. It is up in the air, but as we see that the EU and America are collapsing under their own weight of indecision, they might not be in such a setting. In addition Dutch political party New Social Contract with its leader Pieter Omtzigt was giving the press 7 minutes to time to prepare for the election papers. 7 minutes, that is a populist approach to getting votes and responses. How is that any way to treat voters? That is the setting we see and that is what we are given. 

The media has been shirking their responsibilities for close to a decade and it is getting worse. So whilst I would be willing to accept the story by the ABC, the larger setting is that the media has been flawed for some time and newspapers aren’t what they used to be. 

Point 3
The third point is a good one “We, the democratic countries, really have to unite in the same way that these autocracies are uniting to prevent that from happening.” I do have an issue with “in the same way”, you see getting them to ACTUALLY unite is one thing. America is in shambles and they are all there to address their own needs, then the needs of their ‘benefactors’ and then the rest is in play. The EU is no different, but with 19 nations all up in arms of each other, the larger station is lost to most of them. An example was seen last week when we were given “Boehringer Ingelheim and five other drugmakers have agreed to pay the European Commission €13.4 million in a hybrid settlement decision after admitting to participating in a global cartel to fix the price of an essential stomach medicine.” So, they make billions and they get a slap of €13.4 million? Things are getting worse and worse in the EU and I wonder if they even have an option to get back on track. Another example is seen with “U.S. measures to limit the export of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China may create an opening for Huawei to expand in its $7 billion home market as the curbs force Nvidia to retreat, analysts say”, it is funny as I gave the readers in ‘The definition of insanity’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/10/19/the-definition-of-insanity/) a day before that papers was published that very same setting. I did not give any numbers as I didn’t have any, but the larger station is now clear. The EU and USA broke their own systems a few times over and this isn’t helping any. This setting is important in light of the way that I am monologuing ‘unite’, but the lack of unity all over the western world is a clear sign that BRICS might end up being the next real power and as we are all up in arms on what  there is going on between China, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Yet Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, Saudi’s foreign minister is correct, something needs to happen and the wester nations are missing or fumbling the ball again and again. We get too much ego, too much presentations and no results and the media isn’t helping any.

So even a the article that is staging what we see now was all on the up and up, the questions are real. They are real because of all the Murdoch wannabe’s, glossy flames and influencer enablers we forgot what ACTUAL news is. A lot of people can no longer tell the difference and the press isn’t policing itself, so the people are on a short pier with nowhere to go. 

That is my point of view and in all this ABC is one of the more respectable sources. Too many are a lot less and the enabling of terrorist agenda’s by the media to get clicks is starting to be noticed by a lot of people. The populist agenda has never been a democratic view or a realistic democratic approach. Consider the autocracy that they will deliver when they are elected will cause a rapid decline in many nations and I might just live long enough to see that impact on a global scale. 

Enjoy the day as we move towards the middle of the week.

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October 22, 2023 · 19:08

The thin ice

We all know the expression, no skating on thin ice. Yet when you think of it, when was the last time you saw thin ice? We all hear it, but when did you yourself, with your own eyes see a case of thin ice? We tend to think it is a danger avoided, but when no one sees that danger, is it a danger? Don’t get me wrong, I am not doubting that thin ice exists, before ice is thick enough to carry our weights it will be thin ice. A lot of thin ice seeing is assumption. We see ice and we see no one else skating on it, as such we take it for granted that THAT part is thin ice. Hold on to that thought because I am about to give light to two very different articles.

Arab News
The first was Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2395561/business-economy) where we see ‘Saudi banks’ residential loans surge in August as apartments gain prominence’. This article seems nice, but when you read it we are given two parts. The first one is “Mortgage lending to houses, apartments and lands rose to SR7.14 billion in August from SR5.43 billion in July” This is a 30% rise in a month and that is huge. Now there are other factors on play like trends. How was that last year versus this year and a few other things, but 30% matters. In addition we are given “The increase in apartment financing by Saudi banks compared to house financing is due to the increase in prices of houses and private villas compared to the prices of apartments, which has made villas and houses unaffordable to average-income individuals,” and this comes from Talat Zaki Hafiz, an economist and financial analyst. There is the added “Notably, financing of houses still dominates Saudi banks’ new residential mortgage landscape, constituting a 70 percent share in August. While apartments comprised 25 percent of the pie, land financing held the remaining 5 percent.” It seems that the Saudi banks have things well in hand. We can also infer that people are in a better state, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is in a better state and the people are setting their lives accordingly. Now, this is speculative, but if the economy was really bad real estate would not skyrocket by 30%, so something is going right there. 

The Guardian
The guardian gives us a very different story in the UK (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/21/mortgage-debts-and-bust-firms-put-uk-banks-profits-under-pressure) there we are given ‘Mortgage debts and bust firms put UK banks’ profits under pressure’. Now we can argue that the UK has twice the amount of people and that is true, yet as I personally see it, banking is banking. If a bank has a certain margin, having twice that margin implies that bank is twice as rich. Now, I get it, it is not that simple, but read me out.

We are given “Bosses watched in horror as a mini-banking crash led to the collapse of a string of US lenders including Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and later Switzerland’s largest lender, Credit Suisse.” Here we have a problem, what I speculated all along and I saw one part revealed in April was “SVB had few traditional banking uses for the cash that piled up, it instead invested $91 billion in Treasury bonds and U.S. government agency mortgage-backed securities between 2020 and 2021. This brought SVB’s investments to roughly half its total assets.” You see, this was stupid greed and I warned in advance of it, more than once actually and the Guardian does not mention treasury bonds once, there is a whole engine spinning news and misdirecting news all over the media. The speculative setting is that owners of US treasury bonds will auto renew or lose a lot of money, so what would you do if you were the idiot relying on a 2% payday of $91,000,000,000? That amounts to a $1.87 billion payday. I would do the same thing, but these banks used their clients money to hedge that bet and the US government was eager to cater to that level of greed. I reckon that this is why Janet Yellen kept a close eye on this. In addition, I wonder how deep Credit Suisse was involved. 

Yet the setting is housing and “By July, the former Ukip leader Nigel Farage went to war with NatWest over plans to close his accounts at its private bank, Coutts.” Really? One account has that much impact? You see ‘Coutts bank boss quits in row over Nigel Farage’s canceled account’ some might see this as a joke, but for Peter Flavel the boss in question it is not a joke. There is something wrong with banking and banks all over the west. Don’t ask me what, but all these events are part of a larger problem, a problem that involves stake holders blending the message for banks and as I personally see it, the Guardian has been catering to these stake holders. It is highly speculative but even as this truth is given “Speaking to broadcasters Thursday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it “wasn’t right for people to be deprived of basic services like banking because of their views.” I think it wasn’t the views (alone). I reckon that some views opposing the current need is a larger setting and people like Farage could be able to spot that in the documentation handed to them, moreover certain banks have been skating on the thin ice for too long and at some point someone will sink through the ice. That is the danger of the thin ice. For the longest time the thin ice was an urban myth at best, because we never aw cases. But the British banks are in a spot of bother and people like Nigel Farage would shine a big light on that problem, better to get rid of these people and when banks do that, when banks do that to politically A-listers, how much trouble are they really in. You see in March 12th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/12/i-honestly-dont-get-it/) I raised a few questions regarding bonds and the eager beavers in the media never looked at that part, not the Times, not the Guardian, not any respectable newspaper as I personally see it. So why not? What trouble is America trying to pass over thin ice? What are we not told and isn’t that the duty of banks to inform their customers? I reckon that Saudi Banks are doing a lot better because they do not cater to anything else but their goals and the goals of THEIR customers. I could be wrong, but considering that we are left in the dark for over 6 months, all whilst Saudi banks are doing 30% better in a month implies something. It implies that they are doing something right.

 Enjoy the last day of the weekend, Monday is soon here, here it will arrive in less than 300 minutes.

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October 20, 2023 · 00:32

The gig is partially up

Yes, this happens. Even to me and Microsoft apparently figured part out, part I had hoped to include in the sale of my IP, IP which might now be made public domain. I refuse to let Microsoft walk away with it all. You see, I made the second (or third mention) in ‘Ring around the currency’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/12/25/ring-around-the-currency/) on Christmas day 2022, almost a year ago. I had seen how gaming went and I made some calculations. Between 1985 and 1999 the systems Atari 800, Atari ST, Commodore 64 and Commodore Amiga had a little over 10,000 games. I reckoned that if you took the list sorted by rating and you take the top 10% you end up with 1,000 games. Now we get that some still have IP protection. I reckoned that if we set that marker to 50% (really high) we still end up with 500 games, a lot more than Amazon or Google had. The others are fair game, no IP protection and these games could easily be transformed for cloud gaming. Going from 64KB to 1MB-15MB is still a good gig and these games were really fun and addictive. A system with 500 games (merely one of three pillars). That is what the seemingly bright people at Amazon missed and I was laughing most of the year, knowing that my giggles were temporary at best. It was one part that ensured 50,000,000 consoles and alas Kingdom Holding (with Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud) were not taking the bait for billions in revenue. Neither was the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia who was driven to eSports. But I thought ahead of the pack. You see eSports people get there by training and the younger they are the better they become and these games set up my and the next generation, so the new generation could do worse than train on these games. Still that was not my focus, it was a focus on fun. The fun I had through decades of joyful gaming. Not hopping like a kangaroo in FPS games. I also saw the option to reengineer some games (like Defender of the Crown) to be a little more realistic and more Arabic driven, a combination of that game with a focus of the 1st Crusades. Show the current generation what Islamic life in 1095-1291 achieved. And that was not all, many games were up for grabs, rejected and forgotten. As such the creation of a large coffer of games would propel any console and that was the setting I set out to do, but it was only one of three pillars. I tend to make the other two pillars public domain soon enough especially as my retirement in Toronto is now no longer a reality. 

There were several other games that required remastering in the new setting. There was Knight Games on the CBM64, and setting this with a Saracen style might appeal to a lot of Arabic gamers. The nice part was that I had played most of those games and I would be able to recall plenty of details and plenty of gaming sides, even improve on some of them. A setting that was never considered in those days. 

All this came to the surface when I saw ‘Phil Spencer Teases the Revival of Older Microsoft Franchises’. It came with ““With Game Pass, we have the ability to maybe pick a couple of franchises every year and almost do a ‘revisited’,” Spencer explained. Although he clarified that it was not an official branding term, he expressed the potential to recognise the significance of these games in gaming history and make them available through Game Pass.”

Yes, that was the setting that gave me pause to think. Spencer does not think in small settings and as I make this now public domain others will come and see what they can have. You see Microsoft has committed 69 billion, as such making sure that all these games get multiple contenders all vying for a piece of the pie makes the slice for Microsoft smaller and that is not the only thing they will face. So all who read this, if you develop games, see what old games you could purchase, get the IP for or register the new gaming IP. It will be the first disappointment for Microsoft. They will have to share the pie with many others. The other side is that these people could get a slice of the game through the new Tencent Technology handheld. Another mess they never banked on. I had hoped to keep ahead of the curve, but it seems that this is no longer an option. The only thing left is to make these steps as expensive as possible for Microsoft. They invested to get a mile, so if I can make the setting so that they merely get a furlong it will be a good day for me, or at least a better day than it was this morning. So here you see it, this is what Amazon and Google missed. Well, it was one of three parts they missed and I wonder if someone over there will wake up at some point. 

Enjoy the day, I will enter Friday being decently grumpy today.

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October 15, 2023 · 20:58

Is it that bad?

That was the first question that came to mind. I was ‘reading’ Mirage News (at https://www.miragenews.com/blinken-meets-with-uae-president-sheikh-mohammed-1103623/) where we see ‘Blinken Meets with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed’. It is there where we are given “Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met today with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi to discuss the terrorist attacks on Israel. The Secretary expressed appreciation for the UAE’s clear condemnation of Hamas’ heinous attacks on Israeli civilians and continued diplomatic engagement to prevent the spread of conflict”. Now, from my personal point of view (and an utter inexperience) of dealing with royalty, the fact that the nation is thousands of miles away (roughly 11,325,624 cm) I would rely on that invention by Alexander Graham Bell, or its  mobile equivalent. This was about something else. If you use the Gaza events to break the ice, you can be decently certain that the real situation is a dire one. 

It is anyones guess what the real deal is. BRICS is a decent thought, as they are gaining a lot of steam, all whilst dumping USA bonds. The second one is technology advancement. The fact that China now has the upper hand in the UAE (and Saudi Arabia) for construction projects, for 5G deployment projects and with defence spendings. These three add up to hundreds of billions of dollars and the USA is no longer the party in the ‘A’ column. And the part of desperation? This is seen with “commitment to building a more integrated, secure, and prosperous region, and reaffirmed the importance of the strategic partnership between the United States and the United Arab Emirates”. As such my question becomes show me five examples where the United States has set a stage of integration with the UAE in the last 5 years? Give me also 5 examples where the United States has made the UAE more secure? That is merely two examples out of a decent bag filled of examples. The United States has dropped the ball several times all over the Middle East and now that the countdown to collapse has started the United States is eager to clamp onto any connection so that they can delay the last part of the countdown. 

I get it, plenty of people doubt me, call me crazy or call me a loon (the last part might be true). Yet the larger stage in all this is that the US is reaching out to whomever they can. Last month it was with India, China in June and Brazil in march. The US is seeking out the BRICS members and trying to get a hand-up in their collapsing economy. When we realise that “as of August 2023, the United States government has a monthly interest rate of 2.92 percent on its debt” and when you realise that this amounts to well over 900 billion dollars a month all whilst The U.S. government has collected $3.97 trillion in fiscal year 2023. We get the numbers. When we see the interest as the mark, we see that 100% of taxation merely covers 22% of the interest they have accrued. I saw this moment in 2017, the setting was a mere exercise of an abacus and it was a finite moment. This is the consequence of inactions and political haymaking all whilst these politicians never had a hoe to collect the hay. An exercise in prototyping and conjecture is merely a training exercise, but it was sold as a product, just like these software developers in the 90’s. Over 99% of those did not survive their presentations. Now we are mere inches away from seeing it happen to a government. China played the long game, China wins. It is simple mathematics and they have relied on it for almost 900 years. Most nations (especially in the EU) diid not follow that example for almost 400 years. 

So the question ‘Is it that bad’ is a serious one and I am not the best source of answer here, but the media is not informing you on how serious matters are either, are they?

Enjoy the Sunday that is almost over for me and starting in the very very west (Vancouver).

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October 11, 2023 · 03:55

The number is three

Weirdly enough, my mind came up with something that was out there and for some reason it matters. The rhyme goes like “They touch, they break, they steal. No one here is free. Here they come, they come for three, unless you stop the melody.” You see, there is a second meaning to steal, it can also mean ‘move somewhere quietly’, we forget that sometimes, we all do. And with this I saw a few articles. 

The first step
The first article is seen (at https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/oct/05/australia-fifa-world-cup-2034-bid-saudi-arabia-challenge) where we hear ‘Australia given 25-day deadline to challenge Saudi Arabia’s 2034 World Cup bid’. It is here that we see “Football Australia, state and federal governments and potential Asian co-hosts have been given 25 days by Fifa to decide whether they will bid for the 2034 men’s World Cup”. Other articles give us that Australia is pissed.  The why part is out there and it is not asked. Consider that I wrote some time ago regarding “Department of Jobs, Skills, Industry and Regions secretary Tim Ada told the inquiry that the event’s costs had nearly doubled from $2.6 billion in March 2022 to $4.5 billion a year later.” As such, they already fumbled the ball once, so now they want to give that another try, now with FIFA? And why is 2034 so important? We have 2026 (USA, Canada, Mexico) and in 2030 we get that on October 4th 2023 it was announced that Spain, Portugal and Morocco would host the majority of the 2030 FIFA World Cup in an unanimous decision from the FIFA Council, with one “celebratory game” each being held in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay. The game is evolving, it is too big for one place, so who would be able to afford to host the games? The general costs were in 2014 (Brazil) $19.7 billion, in 2018 (Russia) $16 billion, and 2022 (Qatar) had a $229 billion cost message. We can agree that the last one was outlandishly big, but a country that could not fork over $5,000,000,000 for the Commonwealth Games will share well over triple that with New Zealand? What is wrong with people? I am not debating that this event is good for a nation who hosts this, but Australia and a few other places are not in a financial sound place. Saudi Arabia is one of the few nations who have that kind of money available. The 2030 innovations that the kingdom is showing could (or should) show the world that Saudi Arabia has what it needs to make it work. 

We are all in the need for games, but these games (FIFA, Commonwealth Games, Olympics) are slowly pricing themselves out of a global market and no one is asking serious questions here. I get why the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia wants this and lets be clear, they can afford it. Australia? I am not certain, yet the errors made last year and the triple costs now make me wonder if some politicians have any idea the amount of money that they are spending. 

The second step
The second step is not that clear, we are given (at https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/hamas-strike-israel-force-market-190723900.html) ‘Hamas’ strike on Israel will force the market to ‘beg’ Saudi Arabia to pump out more oil, famed crude trader says’, so when the market begs. How sturdy are they? The fact that this event is used as an excuse to beg for more oil. How shoddy as their position to begin with? The USA and EU are not reliant on either Hamas or Israel for oil and their oil needs are not on the USA or EU. OK, perhaps Israel might benefit, but Gaza does not. So when I see “the militant group’s raid will disrupt longer-term supplies, with Riyadh unlikely to start pumping out more crude until Brent hits $110 a barrel.” I wonder who believes that setting. I get that oil prices will increase that was already a given, but that is mostly due to the fact that OPEC has decided to decrease outputs. It was the hard lesson the USA had to learn from being politically utterly stupid. The price it had in June 2022 will be returned to and most likely get surpassed, neither of the two Gaza players had a hand in that. Yes, these tanks will require fuel, but that would be on Israel. 

The third step
The last step comes from Business News Australia. The article (at https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/blog/trademark-group-connects-aussie-businesses-to-saudi-boom) gives us ‘“Like Dubai 20 years ago”: Trademark Group connects Aussie businesses to Saudi boom’, we get the notion and the act to get close to any business boom that can be ‘exploited’. As such we are given “Australian businesses that missed out on the Dubai growth story of the past 20 years have been urged to take a closer look at Saudi Arabia, a country that Trademark Group founder and CEO Sam Jamsheedi describes as the sleeping giant of the Gulf region.” Yes, I agree. But I saw that essential setting over two years ago and I wrote about that in this blog on numerous occasions. As such it is nice that Sam Jamsheedi woke up to the notion two years late. My issue with the article is not the notion. It is also accepted that we see “Each industry that the Saudis are trying to develop provides massive opportunities for Australia businesses to capitalise on – from construction and agriculture to food, beverage and even sport.” In this I agree, yet my thoughts are where the article failed. You see the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a Muslim nation, it largely acts and reacts as the Quran inspires them. Yet the article does not even once mention ‘Islam’ or ‘Muslim’ settings. That was my first stage when I was testing my IP. Yet Muslim rules are all over Saudi Arabia, they are in advertising which is a first hurdle ANY business needs to overcome. They need to test that their advertising adheres to those rules. The article makes no mention there either. It reads like a wishful thinking article, all whilst basic needs are not mentioned. It reads to me that these are ‘small’ hurdles that they will overcome in due time. That is an entirely wrong setting to take. 

We see three settings, They touch (oil), they break (FIFA), they sneak (Business) and they all want a piece from Saudi Arabia. Yes, the second one is flimsy, but when we see the cost part, I am almost clueless that Australia is setting it all up. It is my speculative view that with Qatar players like Coca Cola missed out on too much and now they are anxious and eager to make sure that FIFA is set in a place where their interests are larger like in Australia. All at the same time we see a setting of 5G and a few other settings where Australia is not in the best place and I feel 99% certain that the drain on 5G will be enormous in 2034 and I am not entirely certain that Australia will be ready at that point. They politicised too much, which made them massively non acting, merely talking loud. As such, when we were given in May 2023 the setting of New guidelines, we were also given “These renewed warnings come amid the Australian government’s plan to strengthen national security and make Australia one of the most secure countries in the world by 2030” that sounds nice, but the fact that the nation is lacking security settings for 8 years is flimsy to say the least. But no one is looking at that, are they? I still get 4G mentions all over Sydney today, as such I fail to see that they are ready by the time it matters and it mattered yesterday. We are presented several issues and no one is looking at the picture we should be seeing. As I personally see it “unless you stop the melody” refers to presentations given and these presentations are lacking on several levels. Feel free to disagree, but when you look behind the presentations you need to see a solid setting, solid numbers and solid facts. We aren’t given those. Why not?

Enjoy the final part of the first half of the week.

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October 9, 2023 · 07:47

When it pours

When it pours, an umbrella seems pointless. Yes, that was not the stage you imagined, was it. When it rains we rely on an umbrella to keep us dry, when it pours a little less so. You see pouring rain tends to come with strong winds, and most umbrella’s are not designed to deal with both. 

So when I see ‘Israel formally declares war, approves ‘significant’ steps to retaliate for Hamas attack’ (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-gaza-hamas-hezbollah-1.6990466) I wonder what else is in play. I see the speculations by the media. ‘It’s a Russian Ploy’, ‘It’s an anti Saudi-Israel ploy’. Now, both are possible, both are also likely but consider that some sources give us that 3,500 rockets have been fired. This was an event that was planned. This was not some knee jerk event. Consider where you can store 3500 rockets, consider that Mossad is trying to monitor Gaza 24:7. These elements combined give us the need for crunching data and intelligence. So whilst the CBC gives us “The Israeli government formally declared war Sunday and gave the green light for “significant military steps” to retaliate against Hamas for its surprise attack from the Gaza Strip a day earlier, as the total death toll on both sides surpassed 1,100 and thousands have been wounded.” No one is sitting down to consider that this happened leaving Mossad doing the penguin with their pants on their ankles. And we can understand that Israel formally declared war. Yet, the time-line does not match up. Yes, we see that Hamas feels threatened by the normalisation of ties between the state of Israel and the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. In equal measure there is a need for Russia to get focus away from them (as they get bitch slapped by Paddington bear). So both speculations have merit on the greater scheme of things and perhaps both are in play. 

I was there in 1982, I saw the mess there was and I feel tired that this shit is still going on. It feels like my life as part of the UNSC was a waste of time. It doesn’t make me a better source of intelligence, I merely see more than what the media gives us. It also makes me wonder when stress points are added to Israel, Eilat and Beer Sheva are Israeli hubs. When the rockets start focussing on these two points the game will alter, and I tactically speaking these two places are not out of reach. If there is anything to say about Hamas is that they tend to be creative. If they have the ability to hide and shoot 3500 missiles, 400 drones in two droves on these two pressure points is not unimaginable. Especially if Russia is part of that equation. I reckon that they could see that handing 400 drones to Hamas will be a stronger message than keeping them aimed at Ukrainian targets. In all this there is one clear part. My view is pure speculation, I have no data supporting my view. Yet I feel that merely focussing on missiles is not a good idea for Israel. Hamas knows that there will be retaliations. So whatever comes next, it will be their goal to make it hurt. It seems strange, but after 42 years, I see now that this will never end in my lifetime and if I had kids, they would not see the end of this either. It is almost a version of Harry Potter, one cannot live whilst the other is still alive. It is not positive, but it is what it is. In 1982 I had the dastardly hope that I was part of setting a stage that would end hostilities. I now know that it was foolish to think that I had any positive impact there. 

We all learn and we all learn at our own speed. No matter how we see this, consider that this coming week will give a better view on how things around the west bank will escalate.

Try to enjoy the week that is on the horizon for those west of India.

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October 2, 2023 · 04:43

An altering stage

This is a setting we all see, we all accept. We see any stage and we see it changes as conditions are dealt with. The Shutdown is as I expected averted in the last minute. I expected it would, but I also expect that this might go wrong in the future and the next shutdown is a mere 45 days away and US businesses are setting this new marker as the disaster moment. That is the new quarter setting, a setting that is a mere 45 days away now, but what happens when this becomes a monthly thing? And that is not nearly the end of it. You see CNN and others reported on how Rep. Jamaal Bowman pulled the fire alarm a mere minutes before that vote. Children will be children and what do you do with stupid children? Yes, you make them representatives of Congress, that is how it goes. He is seemingly hiding behind ‘it was an accident’ just like every other 12 year old who played ding dong ditch with a fire alarm. This is merely the stage, the larger stage is more serious. 

The first one is the IMF (at https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/09/28/cf-saudi-arabias-economy-grows-as-it-diversifies) who reports ‘Saudi Arabia’s Economy Grows as it Diversifies’. It is a summary and you should read it. It shows several elements that are taking the world by storm. It is not “As shown in the latest IMF annual review of the country’s economy, progress has been most notably reflected in non-oil growth, which has accelerated since 2021, averaging 4.8 percent in 2022. Despite lower overall growth reflecting additional oil production cuts, non-oil growth will remain close to 5 percent in 2023, spurred by strong domestic demand.” We get the goods here, but it is “The economy’s non-oil growth has been spurred by strong domestic demand, particularly private non-oil investment. Sustaining this performance requires pursuing sound macroeconomic policies and maintaining the reform momentum, irrespective of developments in oil markets.” Even if the stage is not revealed, when combined with other views we see that ‘strong domestic demand’ is merely one string from the harp of economy, the harp of Saudi economy. What matters is that larger streams involving defence, technology, construction, tourism and services are ALL moving towards Chinese shores. We see some of it now, but that list is rapidly expanding and the next US vote is 45 days away with them having to brood on a loss of billions and it will be a lot more than 1 billion. 

The second article comes from Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2382701). I am not seeing anything new, but the fact that we see the report on this implies that US and EU governing bodies are now seeing the losses that they are being confronted with. In the first Saudi Arabia has set the lofty goal of increasing the tourism target from 100 million to 150 million of tourists a year by 2030. I think they can get there, but as I wrote last week that implies that these 150 million will not be going to the US or EU. So did you do the math on that loss? Saudi Arabia was until recent not really a blip on anyones radar and now they are becoming a power player. And this is not just China, The EU has 44 million Muslims a fair size of this would be considering Saudi Arabia as a tourist destination soon enough and even as the US only has about 4 million Muslims, these two are now seriously looking at what kind of a vacation Saudi Arabia could offer. I think it could grow even further. As a growing global population wants to really learn about Islam, we see that the Churches are now going more and more deserted. You can fool all of the people som of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time and the western world is in stage three, all whilst stage two is waking up on the notion that the churches have been a scam (as some people see them) yet these people are now seeking faith. Faith they feel the churches can no longer deliver as these people feel conned. Now Saudi Arabia has a stage where they can openly and clearly introduce Islam to a people who feel empty because faith deserted them, it is now seen as a betrayal and the churches cannot address the betrayal that they instigated since November 18, 1095 (Council of Clermont, First Crusade). Over 900 years and that shindig is up. So Saudi Arabia stands to increase its Muslim population, they increase tourism and at the same time they decrease the revenue streams to the EU and US. Both China and Russia will see this as a win, as does the BRICS community. IS my view correct? Correct is not the issue, this is clearly happening, but to what degree is anyones guess. I felt betrayed by my Catholic Church going back since slightly before 2015 when the movie Spotlight showed the world that something was very very wrong. We have been conned by hypocrites and charlatans and many feel too betrayed to give the church even one option to redeem itself. This tom foolery had been going on for over 900 years. 

And when you consider the Arab News giving you “By focusing on shared opportunities for growth and prosperity, the crown prince shuns hardened religious ideology that offers no prospects for the region or the international community at large. This leads him to navigate uncharted territory and negotiate closer ties with Iran and Israel alike. As he has pointed out, a Saudi normalisation agreement with Israel, if it came to pass, would be “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War.”” It is seemingly correct (there are a few nicks to that setting), but the larger stage becomes more than ‘since the end of the cold war’. You see, the US was a power-player since the end of WW1 and that too is about to end. All the friends the USA used to have are now seeking new shores to feed their greed and they will bend over backwards to get their slice of cake and in the process will have to openly desert the US. Even Americans are now seeking ‘pro-Russian’ shores to ‘feel’ safe, but that is not the way it goes and those people will soon have no one to turn to. A similar setting is to be seen in the EU, although there are other issues in play too. Slovakia turning pro-Russian is merely one stage, one of many stages and that will erupt in many places. I expect that the Paris Olympics will show a few sides evolving there and as this evolves Saudi Arabia will be there to be the new power (together with China). You see, what some are missing is that places like Alipay+ is now partnered with the Saudi Tourism Authority. You think it is simple, but it is not. No matter how we see Alipay as part of the Alibaba group. It sets the stage where it is the partnered player with all the tourism in Saudi Arabia. It overtook PayPal in 2013, it now has over 55% as a pay provider for China and it is about to become a serious contender for all slices of the VISA and Mastercard processing pie. Within 10 years they got to there and the BRICS group will allow it to grow a lot further. And in all this we see another field that was until 5 years ago a field that belonged to the USA. Now we see more and more areas where the USA corporations are degrading to a mere third world nation and Saudi Arabia is in the centre of more and more of these stages. China is making a clean sweep of a lot of this and people still believe that I was kidding when I stated in 2019 that this pariah BS will have larger impacts. We are now seeing these plays in place and we see how the world stage is changing and for the USA and the EU not for the better. Oh and before you think this is temporary, consider the Brooklyn floods. It will take months for the humidity to settle down and the heating bills with decreased oil will take its toll there too. They say ‘It never rains when it pours’ and now we see the impact in several income streams whilst service streams are negatively impacted. All at the same time. But no matter the next shutdown is dues around 16 November 2023, a week before thanksgiving in the USA. So what will the Turkey’s do at that point to survive? Play ding dong ditch with a fire alarm?

Enjoy the upcoming week.

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September 27, 2023 · 23:54

As the belt tightens

We have seen the expression, but did we consider the impact against the long game? Today two articles passed me by. The first one comes from Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2380901/saudi-arabia) where we see ‘Saudi Arabia granted China’s Approved Destination Status’ with the added “Saudi Arabia was officially granted Approved Destination Status by China on Tuesday, allowing Chinese citizens to travel to the Kingdom on group tours, the Saudi Press Agency reported.” You might think ‘So what?’ and that is fine. Yet consider that Chinese tourists “made 155 million outbound trips, and spent a cumulative $245 billion on outbound tourism”, now this is on their global trips. Yet 5 years ago Saudi Arabia was not even a blip on the tourism radar. So, now we see the setting where it might start at a mere 10%, but this could grow a lot further. Consider that tourism suffers a $24,500,000,000 reduced income. That puts several players in hot water. Some are still recuperating from the Covid issue. Some will drown. Then we get the impact of lessened tourism all over Europe. I reckon that London will have no trouble, as does Paris. Yet several locations will feel that impact, as will some places in the US and in light of the BRICS setting, certain group travel organisations in China will undoubtedly promote Saudi Arabia as the destination to go to in 2024 and 2025. I reckon (pure speculation) that the rest of the world will lose at least 20% in the first two years and if you read up on some of the media, that is not good news. The second article comes from design boom (at https://www.designboom.com/architecture/marriott-first-w-hotel-saudi-arabia-neom-trojena-09-26-2023/). There we see ‘Marriott’s first W hotel in Saudi Arabia to debut within NEOM trojena’s futuristic ski resort’ that implies that larger players see this as the new tourist place and they want in. So consider that this happens 5 years in advance. The setting gives us the idea that this will not be a small hotel, or a simple cheap one. Saudi Arabia is setting its goals on being the hub for a lot of places and reasons and now tourism is added to their arsenal. You still think I was wrong all those years? As things go, when this gets off the ground, we see a new setting where Saudi Arabia is a possible contender for the Winter Olympics in 2040, I do not think they will have won over enough hearts for 2036, but 2040 is a decent time when the winter olympics could come to Saudi Arabia. The one place where the Winter Olympics would never have gotten to is now the place where it might end. As such how much more revenue is lost by all others? The long play is seemingly panning out perfectly for Saudi Arabia. 

Could I be wrong?
Of course I could, but consider the players vying to get in there, consider the timeline that Saudi Arabia so far has maintained and consider the losses that the US and the EU have had in the last two years alone and the losses they stand to get slapped with over the next three years. When you add it all up it implies that the EU and US will have to tighten the belt by a lot merely to get by and that is before you realise that the US will have budget problems nearly every year for the next 5 years, from that point it will continue on a non-stop trip from bad to worse year after year. We have been given the following quote for some time now “The kingdom’s Vision 2030 goals include enhancing the Saudi private sector to create a vibrant society, establishing a thriving economy via diversification, and investing in ways to position Saudi Arabia for global trade and competition.” And that is exactly what is happening in many fields including tourism. Before you listen to the other people making claims that it is a small hiccup at best. Consider your OWN position. How many holidays have you had? How many trips could you afford? For a lot of us once a year is as good as it gets and that is the same for China, as such a large group will sign up for a Saudi Trip, of that I have no doubt and in that stage as billions go towards Saudi Arabia, they will not go to either Europe or America. I reckon that the moment Saudi Arabia starts its own version of Las Vegas the tourism pain will set in in America and the revenue streams go down even furthers. And that is before you consider that there is every chance that  China will offer a group setting for the Saudi options and add 1-2 days in Dubai as well. I reckon that over the next 3 years that belt will tighten more and more and it will end plenty of businesses all over the US and Europe. I reckon that Australia will feel that pinch too. We are given “Chinese tourists spent $12.4 billion while in Australia. 677,000 visitors came to Australia for holiday purposes.” It might be a mere 10%, but that already means that Australia will miss out on well over a billion in revenue. So how many in places like Sydney will feel the pinch then? Sydney might be decently safe, but a speculated loss of 10% (if it is that small) will impact Australian lives all over the place.

Enjoy the day and consider where you were going next year for the holidays. 

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