Category Archives: Finance

November 30, 2023 · 02:23

Memories

We all have them. And for a lot of us it goes back to almost simpler times and we miss them. As such I was hit by them when I got to the page (at https://www.tomshardware.com/news/windows-xp-wallpaper-takes-spot-on-microsofts-new-ugly-sweater) with the appealing title ‘Microsoft’s 2023 ugly sweater lets you wear the famous Windows XP wallpaper’ I had to read it. You see, I was never aware that they had an ugly sweater and one could say that it is so ugly, it is actually cool again.

That is not me. You see, the Bliss image takes me back to 2004. Things were simpler then and to be honest, I have never known a negative day with my XP, not with Office, not with the Adobe suite. In those days things actually worked correctly. Yes, they screwed it up with Vista, but that is the nature of the beast. 

I was set in a stage of things working, Microsoft not being evil (or more accurately not being stupid). Bliss and XP took me back to the good times and that matters to a lot of people, we all revere the good times we had (or have). The really odd part is that for the bulk of all people, the good times is in the past, in some cases the distant past. 

As such, whomever brought life to this idea at Microsoft has earned a raise. To be honest I did not expect Microsoft to ever surprise me, but they did. And for all the good times reporting they are giving the world with expectations being surpassed. Lets not forget that they just spend well over $65,000,000,000 on a setting that has given them a few issues. One voice gives us “Bethesda tried to make a brand new game concept/idea using old ideas and an old game engine. It just didn’t work. Even modders will have a hard time because the game engine is one of the biggest problems and modders can only work within the limitations of the engine”, you think it is the big tamale, but it is not. You see, most people will overlook the fact that fixing the game is seemingly in the hand of modders. So, when did you rely on your price turkey being fixed by a third party? Add to that the redfall fiasco and you have the making of a problem and the beginning of what I would consider a fiasco. We see all kinds of news on exclusive games coming in 2024, but the larger setting is already that the games they have so far just aren’t adding up. You see I do not care about the Xbox, I dumped mine. What is important that Sony games were better because Microsoft was on their heels, now that the PlayStation has an overwhelming advantage, they might not go all out on the PS6 (whenever that one comes). Good gaming is where it is at and that is why I have been handing over gaming IP to the independent developers (as long as they were not releasing on Xbox). Simple, Microsoft bought it all, now they can prove they actually have it all and have good gaming solutions WITHOUT my IP, they paid enough for it, so now prove it.

In the end this started with the sweater, because that showed us our memories for better and simpler times. It matters to me because the Xbox360 was awesome. Now we see that the Xbox One and the two iterations after that, they are nowhere near what they had. They might claim they have the most powerful console in the world, but the Nintendo Switch being the weakest of them all had much better sales results. It is that bad for Microsoft. We see the mention that Azure is doing better, but what we aren’t told is the simple fact that Oracle saved their bacon. Bing currently has a market share of 3.02% or Microsoft has failed to pick up even 3% of market share in its 10 years of selling Surface PCs. A mere 11% against the 39% that Apple has with the iPad, a superior system. We can argue on how it will come (not ever likely), ore can see that consider that Microsoft is the De Ponzi solution to tech schemes (a I personally see it). Buying more and more and when it does collapse (still set for December 2026) this all falls away. I reckon that late 2025 people will start to realise how dangerous Microsoft has become and I reckon that a early indication will be that Azure users will move towards the AWS flock. It is a speculative view but I believe that I will be proven correct in a years time. The fact that Microsoft is either in denial or refuses to see this is up for debate. But the surprise was the ugly sweater, that win they deserved and according to some sources is almost sold out, so they have that going for them. So what revenue was theirs? And how much revenue are they not getting from their Surface Pro, their Xbox, their Bing and their Azure? That is merely four sides where they never got any decent traction. So what happens when a Google/Adobe partnership impedes on their Office and Office365 setting? How far from home will they be then? Their Office solution is keeping them afloat. For the most their Excel is doing all the heavy lifting. Their Outlook showed issues in the last 24 hours. So when others come calling with solutions that actually work Microsoft will have a a lot more problems and no sweater will save them then. 

Believe me, don’t believe me. It is up to you, but when you start looking at multiple reliable sources the puzzle becomes a reality and it is not a pretty picture, no bliss in sight.

Enjoy the day.

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November 29, 2023 · 07:05

Egg timer? What egg timer?

Yes, we get that. There are egg timers that give us what we were waiting for. I stated on November 17th (12 days ago) “A complete overhaul was the only option and now with BRICS and China pushing in on the little revenue they had left, they have no options now and their competitors are moving in on whatever revenue they had left.” I said so in ‘It’s that time again’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/11/17/its-that-time-again/) Now Politico gives us ‘Brussels wants to beat the Pentagon at its own game on arms sales’ (at https://www.politico.eu/article/european-union-weapons-sales-united-states-defense/) there we see “The European Commission is hinting at a new mechanism similar to the US Foreign Military Sales to facilitate arms exports”, well that didn’t take long, did it? So when we see “In order to claw back the initiative, the European Commission is raising the prospect of copying the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) scheme” we see one thing, but I think it is more about stopping the Chinese sales system of becoming too successful. I fear it might be a little too late for that. There is every indication that China is almost ready to the defence needs of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Too little, too late and as I see it, a little over two years too late. I reckon they ill soon be fishing on the wrong side of the net. So whilst we are now given “In early 2024, Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is expected to present a European Defence Industrial Strategy to help support the Continent’s European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). The consultation document is one of five papers circulated to national delegations to get their views on what the strategy should look like.” You see several reports are out there in the trend of “Riyadh eyes air defence systems and drones as part of possible yuan-based deal while Cairo plans to buy J-10C fighter jets”, so whilst the Europeans are trying to figure out “how to go about it” Saudi Arabia and Egypt are at this point getting catered to by China. As such we see that the China North Industries Group Corporation Limited (NORINCO) is actively talking to the Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI), who is interested in diversifying. 

So that is billions missed, just as I predicted almost two years ago. Now that it is happening, some are ‘reporting’ all whilst whatever intension Europe has with “on what the strategy should look like”, Beijing is not merely getting its feet wet, it is catering to a new clientele and China is hungry for that revenue. So when was the last time you left billions on the floor? As I personally see it Amazon did so a year ago (but they have plenty of cash), the US government does not, it has a debt of $31,000,000,000,000 as such every billion lost is another carve on the debt stick and the next shutdown is expected to be around January 19th 2024 if they cannot agree on a new continuing resolution a lot will fall away. That was a given, but with Europe now tying to get defence money, giving the US less and already China is in the mix (has been for months) with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and they are expected to score some revenue from the United Arab Emirates as well, this upcoming CR will be missing a few revenue posts and not much is needed to make it all fall over. The larger setting is not merely defence, the UAE will (according to one source) be looking at ships as well. As such there is every chance that the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) could be up for some UAE coast guard ships. As I understand it, it has something to do with the Abu Dhabi Ship Building Co (ADSB). So is it mere consultancy? Ships design? I honestly do not know, but what does matter is that they used to have an American fleet, now as that falls away a lot more revenue will be missed by American companies. 

All this and the larger setting isn’t merely what Politico tells you, it is the second degree that the Saudi and Egyptian deals open the doors for. I think that Bangladesh is next on the Chinese sights. China has a two sided tactic, gain revenue and stop America from getting revenue. It is the same setting we saw with Evergreen in 1989. Yung-Fa Chang played his hand brilliantly, a setting where players like Nedlloyd had close to complete control was lost in less than 5 years to Evergreen. I reckon that we get a similar kind of play towards the larger naval needs of Bangladesh and Indonesia. After that there will not be much left for America. They already broke their own windows with their ‘elite’ approach towards the F-22 Raptor. I am not criticising this. It was the demand of the US to keep sole custody of that dinky toy. Yet now Chengdu has several nations vying for their J-20 and with the range options, that is a thing coveted by many defence forces all over the globe and there Saudi Arabia, UAE and optionally Egypt and Indonesia as well is a setting of several billions right of the bat, and I expect that the USA cannot counter those odds on revenue. Yet there are a few options for Europe as well. If they push their agenda Chengdu will have to compete with the Eurofighter Typhoon. I have no idea who will win that revenue race, but Europe better be moving fast, the early bird that hesitates becomes worm food. As for the technical side, I am not a pilot. Yet in all this the Evergreen approach comes to mind, so America and Europe are quickly running out of time and Europe’s voiced response of “on what the strategy should look like” sounded nice in 2021, but not now. It’s crunch time for them at this point.

Enjoy your day today.

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November 28, 2023 · 00:55

Jokes in denial

Yup, we see that at times, we see the jokes making claims and then we see them equally in denial making us wonder what this was all about. This doesn’t start with the BBC article, yet it is a good starting point to make my case. The article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67508331) gives us ‘COP28: UAE planned to use climate talks to make oil deals’ and my first reaction is ‘and?’ You see good business is where you find it and a climate change event has hundreds of people all looking for an edge to make their bank accounts fat. This is not new, FIFA has done it for decades as has plenty of other players. But I digress. 

You see, we are then given “The documents – obtained by independent journalists at the Centre for Climate Reporting working alongside the BBC – were prepared by the UAE’s COP28 team for meetings with at least 27 foreign governments ahead of the COP28 summit, which starts on 30 November.” As such, where is the evidence? A mention of an independent journalist? Which one? Then we see a screenshot of something I could optionally create with PC Write in seconds (a 1983 text editor). If this is such a large issues, where is the ACTUAL evidence? This is the ICIJ joke all over again. Now consider the quote “This year it is being hosted by the UAE in Dubai and is due to be attended by 167 world leaders, including the Pope and King Charles III.” Now consider the setting the UK is in. Should the option arise where the UAE could sell the UK oil at $2 cheaper. Do you think that the UK would not accept? Consider that the UK In 2021, some 13 million metric tons of crude oil from Norway and that the larger image is “Norway ($11.7B), United States ($5.48B), Russia ($1.41B), Libya ($1.37B), and Nigeria ($1.19B)” (estimated numbers in 2021). That means that the UK would save well over a billion dollars. With the shortages they currently have a billion solves a lot of issues. Should it therefor not be done? Oh, and that is if there is ACTUAL evidence on the matter. I am willing to go on faith that ANY event will open doors to business arrangements. It will not hinder or lessen the impact of COP28 will it? And all this is related to someone claiming that they have documents, so where are they? What are these sources? Two simple questions.

The joke in denial
Now it is time to refer to the joke in denial. 

This all started with ‘Uniform Nameless Entitlement Perforation’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/12/10/uniform-nameless-entitlement-perforation/), it was my response to that Guardian idiot with its ‘jets for the rich must stop’ You see the EEA had given us a document on environmental damage in December 2020, it shows that 147 facilities created 50% of that damage. I even added that document at the end.1% creates 50% of all the damage and the Guardian and the BBC never picked up on it, they didn’t even attack the document, they never drilled into the data. They did NOTHING. That makes them the jokes in denial. Now, if they opposed the document and handed us the evidence that would have been fair. But we got nothing and now we get even more garbage without actual or factual evidence. Why is that?

Consider that this day and have fun.

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November 26, 2023 · 20:43

Collapsed Intelligence Agency

Yup, this is about the CIA, unlike the No Such Agency, this one does exist. Now, I do not now, or never ever worked for them. As such I am not in the know. All those people claiming to be in the know from an anonymous source tend to be bullshitting you and I have no such intent. 

This all started when I got my fingers on this from an educational place called Imprimis (at https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/why-the-cia-no-longer-works-and-how-to-fix-it/) the article comes to us by way of Charles S. Faddis. 

It is an interesting read and it focusses on bureaucratisation and politicisation (zzzzzz’s fixed). The first part gives us “Now it is run by people who look for ops with no possible downside and, therefore, no particular upside either.” And the second part is “The CIA has proved unable to put a source inside a Chinese bio lab, within the leadership structure of the Taliban, or next to Vladimir Putin. Those kinds of operations require the willingness to take risks and the ability to manage those risks. We no longer have either”

I cannot disagree with this, but I feel it is too shallow. The first quote makes sense, but there is a larger station. The CIA needs a strong political branch and that one is missing. Most politicians are looking for their own gravy train, the CIA ain’t it. The second part requires resources and as China is closing the borders and Chinese Americans aren’t lining up for a tour that gets their Chinese family members pushed towards vacation park Qincheng, people aren’t willing to line up. Resources are close to all but gone. Now there is every chance that I am wrong, but I feel that I am hitting the nail close to the edge.

The second part gives us “No military relief force was sent by the Obama administration.” This sounds nice, but what is the logistic trail before the president orders actions? That part is not given to us. The 2016 movie ‘13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi’ gives us most clearly that from start to finish 13 hours passed. Some time before could have given these places that there was an issue, but was there enough operational time? It is perhaps the one part missing from the movie, but the movie wasn’t about that, so I get it. My version is seen with “The CIA had given them bad intelligence”, so was it a political player or an intelligence player who screwed things up? All speculations and no supportive data. 

After that the article is all about ‘solutions’ and for me it does not hold water. In the first the CIA needs clear budgets and a nation that is broke becomes a problem, the CIA becomes the anchor no political player wants. They will not say it out loud but their actions will cripple the CIA. There is some truth in education and training but that is for actual agents to report on. There is every chance that I do not know enough. What is clear that they cannot hide behind some fake AI solution, they need proper hardware and proper data solutions. Any political push for AI instigation will cripple the CIA even further. In the end these political players will say ‘sorry, this was apparently too complex for me’ and walk away with a fat check. As I see it, the CIA needs a new way to collect data, through news, through embassies, through consulates and it can no longer be some unique setting. The US State department needs to become the friend of the alphabet groups, not having some pissing content in whomever pond they are. The very first need is quality data that has been verified, the first stage of bad intelligence is missing the correct data.

When we look at the paper we can agree on some parts, but only if we walk with blinders. You see the quote “But the fact that it took us almost ten years after 9/11 to find and kill Bin Laden should give us pause.” What we aren’t given and what the movie ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ clearly gives us is that Bin Laden was in Pakistan, an ally no less and he was in Abbottabad, a mile from the Pakistan Military Academy in Kakul and NO ONE in Pakistan saw this? When was the last time Al Qaeda was spotted in Annapolis (or walking around without a care in the world)? So how much resources did the CIA have in Pakistan? Why was an American ally unaware of all this? This was not on the CIA, one could argue that the US State department failed to a much larger degree, but the article does not bear this out (intentional typo).

Yes, the CIA has problems, but they aren’t all on them. Some are and this article does give us that, but the larger station is not on the CIA, as I personally see it, it is on Congress and it is on too many Alphabet units all doubling on things and data is a huge thing here, especially when three organisations (CIA, NSA and the US State department) need to start playing nice and create a much better data system. It is definitely one side that is draining all three.

But that is merely my views, but what do I know?

Enjoying Sunday, Monday starts in 200 minutes (for me at least).

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November 25, 2023 · 02:11

Stopped making sense

Yes, at some point my mind stops making sense. Even to me. The weird part was that I had no idea whether it was simply a dream, the setting for a video game, a script or even the future. OK, the last speculation was definitely not the case. 

I was on trip with a motorcycle, riding the roads and taking trains in or around Switzerland. The roads had gotten so bad that bikes were allowed on trains (for an extra fee). I was being hunted by an assassin with a chrome coloured .22 with a silencer and that dweep was really accurate with that party popper. I had escaped his vision and I got somewhere around Lausanne (I had to look it up). The thinks that make it all unreal was in the first the bike, which was the bike Kaneda drove in Akira. The second part was the hotel outside of Lausanne. I had room 25334. I have never ever seen or been in a hotel with numbers that high. My mind filled in the blanks from trips to that region. 

The thing that is the most elusive were the roads. The roads had to a larger degree collapsed. They were pretty good in Switzerland, but with Germany’s economy collapsed the roads in Bavaria were dismal, no mentionable repairs had been made in close to a decade and certain seismic shifts broke the roads even further. 

There was a stage where it could have been the setting for a new game, gaming with a difference. You see GaaS (or streaming service) allows for a larger stage of gaming. Consider that a game has more than one side. Consider the setting where you have a management game for infrastructure on your mobile. A match 3, or a Tetris, or puzzle game (or all) that gives you funds for your infrastructure. The results comes into play in the larger game. If you do not do that (always valid) you aggregated average of a cluster of gamers is what the game uses to improve infrastructure and utilities. This would show in all kinds of ways. The hotel was perhaps a reference to the collapsing cities. As economies go bust many buildings will lack maintenance. The cities would become deathtraps. Certain ‘luxury’ hotels would be available all over the world for those who could afford it and local hotels in places that still run would be the envy for those who could not afford to stay there and boosting local economies for those who could. 

It is an evolving idea, but the premise that this is an optional truth coming to us in the near future has been a driving force in gaming for the longest of times. What does matter is how we push that future. I believe that streaming systems will become the future. By being inclusive in more than one direction is one way to go, not the only one, but one direction that many game makers have ignored (for too long). There is also the other side (one I am not ignoring) not all lie the match 3 games. They are algorithms that are designed to make you almost succeed. I hate them. But there are other directions, other games you could play on your mobile. So how to connect them? How to get another game to entice people to play and then connect them to the stage of the larger game? This is not always an easy task, but it is a challenge worth meeting. 

Then there is another path that occurred to me and that one is specifically for Ubisoft. Sony had the Playstation Home (2008-2015) and many miss that open simplicity. Ubisoft has/had AC Brotherhood, AC Black Flag, AC Origin and AC Mirage. Just 4 out of a lot of options. Any person can get an account and can select a world and they end up being in that world owning a house (partially random) and for $1-3 a month the can have a house in a second location. There is also the upgrade. As you select for the upgrade in location one (a more unique setting) you get the second location for free (or the second location upgrades the building in location one). It allows for a new setting for fans. A place they loved they can live there, walk around that town or city and  live to some degree in that temporal environment. Now consider that Ubisoft adds a VR engine. Now the AC fans will get a jug of lemonade from places they revere. And there as an additional setting. It is an environment where Ubisoft has exclusive marketing rights. A place where they can evolve NPC characters and it is in a system where there will be millions of fans. All the places we ran through, but now we can call Alexandria, Aaru, Aten, Duat, Krokodilopolis, Baghdad, Firenze, Rome, Venice, Monteriggioni or Havana our home. As these places evolve and as our systems evolve, we could end up with an actual address that can be wielded in the real world. 

As such our secondary address could become an actual address. These are services now laughed at, but 25 years ago web addresses were laughed at, now over 1,500,000,000 people have one and they are holding onto this for dear life. Ubisoft lost (read: squandered) so many IP options, perhaps it is time to look back in seeing what they could regain and it is their advantage, the graphics are already there. The places to see are already theirs.

Just a though and it might not make a lot of sense, but in 1995 a web location made no sense at all either. Evolution is where you see it.

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November 23, 2023 · 23:23

A dangerous escalation

Before I go into the story, I need you to know something. Hamas is a terrorist organisation, no doubt about it. Governments and the United Nations are bending over backwards to avoid phrasing any sentence that combines Hamas and Terrorist. So I have been watching the ‘pro-Palestinian’ events. Too many are riddles with anti-semitics. And as some spokesperson from the United Nations, the simple looking broad with the saggy tits. I had enough. Israel has a right to defend themselves. Yet, I also agree with the actor Misha Collins, who on Twitter stated that what is happening now amounts to war crimes. I cannot disagree with him. Hamas is fully integrated in the west bank, into its populations. The hospitals (at least one) goes into tunnels with weapon caches. All issues. Now that you know that lets get into the article and the actual dangers that Israel is about to face. And Israel went bug-nuts, more then ever. I get the why, but the setting still stands. Israel is basically guilty of war crimes. I have no idea how they could have acted differently. Hamas killed around 1,200 people, most of them civilians and a large group of them children, people were kidnapped and taken into the west bank. Israel lost their cool and went nuts. 

The article (at https://ara.tv/6a4dp) gives us ‘Saudi Crown Prince calls on all countries to stop arms exports to Israel’. I get it Saudi Arabia is a Muslim nation, as such it will side with Muslims. Also on October 20th the BBC gave us “Prince Turki al-Faisal has publicly condemned both Hamas and Israel for attacking civilians” this matters to everyone. Hamas is now and will remain a terrorist organisation, even if the United Nations are in denial. The danger is seen with “Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged all nations during an extraordinary BRICS summit on Tuesday to cease weapon exports to Israel.” The title gave us the goods, but it is now a more dangerous setting. You see Saudi Arabia is now a stronger voice in BRICS, they have the money, they have the economic future and that has been enough of an incentive for all governments to react. As I see these useless United Nations, the people who would not clearly act against Houthi terrorists are now even more useless. And when Saudi Arabia gets the upper voice, the UN is mostly done for. 

This is no boast, no grandstanding. The last four events West Bank, Ukraine, Yemen and Syria. In all these matters the UN achieved almost nothing, mere grandstanding and the fuel for a gravy train. That is all the UN now amounts to. So as BRICS grows and there is absolutely zero doubt that this will not happen. All kinds of nations will want a piece of that for their economy. That deflates the UN, sets larger issues with the EU and as you have seen in America, too many voices are not merely against Ukraine, they are more and more pro Russian. That is the future we see coming on all channels but the media is making a populist mockery of it all. And now that things need to be achieved the Kingdom in Saudi Arabia is hugely placed to make it happen. It gets to be worse (or better for me) for that. I once wrote the (partial) script of ‘How to assassinate a politician’ that politician is now the largest person in the Dutch election. Geert Wilders, the anti-Muslim far right voice has the most votes. I might just offer my writing again to Al-Arabiya, Al Saudiya, or Dubai TV. The fact that Geert Wilders is about to become prime minister of the Netherlands might make my script worth a few pennies. 

Still the larger station for Israel changes. There could soon be a setting that the State of Israel will end up standing alone. When America and the Commonwealth need to choose their economies or Israel is not entirely unlikely. I have no idea how that will play out, but as the Ukrainian pressures play out, Russia will be in a new stage. Side with BRICS and Saudi Arabia and end up with the tick of NATO at their front door, or make sure that Europe diversifies. The danger for Israel is not complete, but it is growing and Hamas ends up with winning a war they should never have been allowed to win. Because the moment a terrorist organisation wins a war, we all lose, no exception to that setting. That much is certain and the media stands on its own shores, the one with digital dollars, the populist voice. Because flames get responses, get clicks and sets the populistic people on a typing rampage creating even more clicks. 

Enjoy the day. It is almost Friday for me.

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November 23, 2023 · 00:07

Changing gears

This is something I have seen an I have been confronted with in some form. Yet when the NY Times reported on ‘Why Banks Are Suddenly Closing Down Customer Accounts’ (at https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/business/banks-accounts-close-suddenly.html). I was taken aback a little. This is not some case of criminal activity, that I would accept. Here we see “Bank customers get a letter in the mail saying their institution is closing all of their checking and savings accounts. Their debit and credit cards are shuttered, too. The explanation, if there is one, usually lacks any useful detail” with an additional “the telltale pause and shift in tone. “Per your account agreement, we can close your account for any reason at any time,” the script often goes”. There are two settings that come to mind (of the top of my head). The first one comes via Dutch journalist and entrepreneur Luc Sala “the world will have two types of people, those who have and those who do not” it is a statement he made 30 yeas ago and we have been moving towards that setting. A stage of enablers, consumers and others. The second thought that came to mind is seen with “Individuals can’t pay their bills on time. Banks often take weeks to send them their balances. When the institutions close their credit cards, their credit scores can suffer. Upon cancellation, small businesses often struggle to make payroll — and must explain to vendors and partners that they don’t have a bank account for the time being.” I see this as the case that to some degree saw with the SVB bank in march. They are so close to the edge that they are closing down all accounts that are not labelled as enablers or consumers. The algorithm is set to what in some circles would be called platinum or gold customers, the rest is cut as a liability. It is all so that they can continue a little longer. As long as they stay away from the edge they will be ‘safe; for another week (or two). And the explanation by Jerry Dubrowski, a spokesman for JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank with 80 million retail customers and six million small-business ones does not help. The stage where we are given “whose former account holders sent nearly 200 complaints to The Times” is a metric. So how many complaints did The Times get in the preceding 6 months? How many in 2022, 2021 or 2020? These are metrics that we can use and they would give me something to go on, most likely that the two reasons I just mentioned are not merely the most likely ones. It shows that I got it right. The second excuse “We act in accordance with our compliance program, consistent with our regulatory obligations” is seen by me as equally bogus. You see in June 2023, we were given “JPMorgan Chase is fined by SEC after mistakenly deleting 47 million emails” with the added text “The deletions occurred after JPMorgan’s corporate compliance technology department, which had been trying unsuccessfully to delete some communications from the 1970s and 1980s, sought help from an outside vendor managing the bank’s email storage”. Now consider that an additional 40TB for storage costs $2,899. Now consider the two parts “According to the SEC, JPMorgan has been unable in at least 12 civil securities-related regulatory probes to comply with subpoenas and document requests for communications that had been permanently deleted.” Is the first part. The second part is seen when you consider that these activities required the cost of an external deleter (this is not a free skill) and the fact that they tried to delete 53 year old emails implies that the setting was on shaky grounds to begin with. So where was the side of “our regulatory obligations” then? Then we return to 2020 where we see ‘JPMorgan Chase & Co. Agrees To Pay $920 Million in Connection with Schemes to Defraud Precious Metals and U.S. Treasuries Markets’ which amounts to another setting of ‘obligations’ as such the spin is turned back to JP Morgan Chase. This is about (my personal view) algorithm and the ‘dangers’ that these numbers represent. It makes my mind turn to a movie called Margin Call (2011) with Kevin Spacey, Paul Bettany and Zachary Quinto. At some point we get the quote “Fuck me… Once this thing gets going in the wrong direction. The losses are greater than the current value of the company…?” I do not think that the banks are there yet, but with my view on US treasury bonds several banks are now on the edge and they are trimming all the liable fat they have, so those who are not enablers or consumers are cut. I doubt it is only JP Morgan Chase, but they are the first to visibly twitch. If this is right those who saved ALL THEIR LIVES are about to lose a hell of a lot. 

Am I wrong?
That remains the question and it is a fair question and it can be debunked by giving the people (all of us) a clear list of where all those bonds are and who (especially banks) owns more than $50,000,000 in bonds. I reckon that several banks have way more than that and they relied on the quote ‘too big to fail’, but that myth has been taken to bed and treated to the medicinal use of a 12 gauge. 

As such my view could be dispelled easily enough and I made that same request around the SVB bank months ago, even as the media NEVER looked in that direction (for unknown reasons).

The second mistake by Jerry Dubrowski was “the vast majority of closures are correct, consistent with the regulatory obligations we are required to follow” it comes with the realisation that ‘vast majority’ implies that plenty are wrongfully cut and when was there a bank that relied on “You could be wrongfully culled, but that is how regulatory obligations work” said no one ever. It is the relying on ‘vast majority’ that gives the edge to the victims of this. And now JP Morgan will either be required to give full explanation to EVERY ACCOUNT (as I personally see it) or cop another fine of millions, but they are tax deductible and that is the most likely path they will be on. But that could merely be me and I could be wrong.

In this article Ron Lieber and Tara Siegel Bernard give a good account and I could have looked at it earlier, but I did not. This happens and I have no regulatory obligations. And it was only 6 hours ago when we saw ‘Analyst view: Goldman Sachs rates Polycab as ‘Buy’, JPMorgan still bullish on Reliance Industries Limited’ with the added “JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) has maintained an “Overweight” rating for Reliance Industries Limited (RIL)” I see no “impressive retail sector performance” I see a reliance on algorithm to get every penny away from the ‘edge’ as possible. I could be wrong there too, but there is every chance that JP will have to call itself ‘JPMorgan Edging’ soon enough. There is another side, but that is an icky one (always wanted to have a reason to use the word icky). It takes me back to the shores of the Dutch SNS bank. Several sides and they might be the first bank in Dutch history that gives a view that white collar crime pays. One got 12 months, 4 got suspended sentences and the Dutch government is down €804,000,000. This relates to the JP case because of the algorithm. How was the bad bank script invoked? How was it ‘allowed’ on paper to fraud and corrupt? Where were the ‘regulatory obligations’ there? It is what the law allows for and as such we see the hardship on the people who are cut (and optionally merely hit hard times). So now consider that the banks cut all those who hit hard times, and still all non-cut customers of that bank are due their fees. So where was the risk management there? The risk has become too great and they are all cut now. That is how I (optionally wrongly) see it.

The last ‘issue’ is that only the NY Times has this, none of the other newspapers have it. The NY Times has enough credibility, but my mind races. There is absolutely no way that JPMorgan Chase is alone here, so why is the NY Times the only one that has this? I doubt it is merely algorithm. This makes me wonder (yet again) how much in US Treasury bonds does JPMorgan Chase has at this moment? 

Just a question. Enjoy the day. I am two minutes from Thursday, Vancouver is only just starting Wednesday.

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November 21, 2023 · 06:31

Presentations by media jokes

It happens at times. Whilst we think that corporations are playing us, we are all being played by the media. The media and corporations hand in hand deceiving us all for a simple percentage. That is the feeling I have had for plenty of times, but this one (my speculated view) is just too opportune to ignore. So lets show you what I have and you can decide for yourself.

Part one
The first part is the story we have seen over the last 2-3 days. This version (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2023/11/20/sam-altman-will-not-return-as-ceo-of-openai/) is used as the other version I wanted to use (AFR) is behind a paywall. We see here ‘Sam Altman Will Not Return As CEO Of OpenAI’ with the added text “Supporters of Altman led by Microsoft and including investors and key employees had pressured OpenAI’s board of directors to take back Altman, or face the widespread resignation of OpenAI’s researchers and withdrawal of Microsoft’s support”. At this point three questions come to mind but I will hold off until a little later, it makes things a lot more clear. As such we see one corporation ‘cleaning’ its management setting, but ponder on those settings a little longer

Part two
The second part came hours later, but now we have a very strong defining place with ‘Microsoft hires former OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’ (at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/nov/20/sam-altman-openai-ceo-wont-return-chatgpt-talks-fail-emmett-shear-twitch) with the added “Microsoft has hired Sam Altman as head of a new advanced artificial intelligence team after attempts to reinstate him as chief executive of OpenAI failed.” At this point a few questions should emerge, but we are about to go into that part. 

Part three
This comes when we consider “At the end of a dramatic weekend of boardroom drama, the non-profit board of the San Francisco-based OpenAI has installed Emmett Shear, the co-founder of video streaming site Twitch, as the company’s third CEO in three days”

Part four
The questions that should come to mind are

  1. OpenAI is ruffle feathers when it is on a high in several directions?
  2. Sam Altman doesn’t have a non-compete clause?
  3. So, who is Emmett Shear, what is his expertise in presumed AI?

These three questions should have been on the mind of ALL media. OpenAI is on a high note on a hyped route towards whatever they present. But none of them did, I checked a dozen articles, they ALL overlooked issues here, so when does the media ‘overlook’ issues? We see all the emotional articles about staff resigning, about ‘demands’ in a stage where they (for now) have the upper hand. Oh and on a sideline, when you have such hyped IP, which corporation was the last place that had non-compete clauses in play, especially for players this size? 

That is beside the point on WHO became the replacement.

Part five
This is the kicker, this is the coup-de-grace of the entire equation. It is seen with Microsoft hiring Sam Altman. Microsoft now has a larger stake in a solution they wanted all along and through this media drama, they now get it a lot cheaper. So when would any player, in this case OpenAI shoot itself in the foot to this degree? We see now that ‘Weekend of OpenAI drama ends in a Microsoft coup’, ‘Microsoft Emerges as the Winner in OpenAI Chaos’ and ‘OpenAI’s leadership moves to Microsoft, propelling its stock up’, yes presentations by the media. The media used as the bitch of Microsoft and it is shown through questions that were clearly out in the open. Microsoft stock up and OpenAI becomes part of Microsoft for billions less. One could say (and I would not disagree) that this was a lovely play to reduce billions in tax payments and the media let it happen. All solutions that were clearly on the papers where ever you looked when you decided to seek for the right answers. As I personally see it, the media is simply the bitch of corporations and they all let it happen, all pushing the tax offices down the river in a canoe without a paddle. Well played Microsoft.

So consider what played over a weekend, consider what any corporation would do to protect its multi billion dollar value. I think that OpenAI was part of this stage from the very beginning, but that is my speculated view.

Enjoy your Monday, it’s Tuesday here.

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November 20, 2023 · 13:43

Ratatouille

Yes, that was the thought entering my mind. It is not about the cartoon, it is about the dish. I first had it in 1981 in Lourdes. It was also the year I met members from the Legion Etrangere and their kepi blanc. A lot happened that year but it is not set the a singular event. You see, there is a larger stage that my mind is working out and it is one of a few. 

Douse the Mouse
The second stage towards all this is Ronald McDonald DeSantis where we (in no particular order) are given (at https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2023/11/17/florida-starts-turning-on-desantis-00127753) with ‘DeSantis’ popularity drops in Florida’ where we are given “But DeSantis’ support from Independent voters in Florida has taken a nosedive, the poll shows, with almost 60 percent saying they disapprove of the job he is doing as governor — a nearly 14-point increase from July” so in 3 months his approval rate is down by 14% and I believe it is more than that. The person who wanted to ‘Douse the Mouse’ (source: @Brittlestar) is now trying to avoid whatever he can. So we get to the second link (at https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/disney-says-it-has-40-billion-economic-impact-in-florida-as-it-battles-desantis-in-court/) with ‘Disney says it has $40 billion economic impact in Florida as it battles DeSantis in court’ where we are given “Disney officials in the past year have said the company plans to invest an additional $17 billion over the next decade in central Florida, including potentially adding another 13,000 jobs. However, the company has shown a willingness to pull back investing in the Sunshine State. Earlier this year, Disney scrapped plans to relocate 2,000 employees from Southern California to work in digital technology, finance and product development, an investment estimated at $1 billion”, so not only does Disney account for 40 billion, it was about to increase the economic footprint of Florida by 2.5% money that the state desperately needs. Now we see that DeSantis is trying to spin several settings and the people have had enough. The deep painted republicans are running away (alas in the direction of Donald Trump), the rest has had enough of the republicans. Now we get to the story (at https://www.npr.org/2023/11/16/1213355557/desantis-florida-president-candidate-voters-trump) where we see ‘Once Florida’s favourite son, Floridians turn on DeSantis in his bid for president’ a stage that gives us “Trump currently has more than a 30 point lead over DeSantis in his own state. That lead hasn’t changed significantly since the governor jumped into the race for president”, as well as “Republican state Rep. Randy Fine has been one of DeSantis’ most vocal supporters in the Florida Legislature. But recently he announced he’s backing Trump in the GOP primary”. This is a setting I expected to some degree, but not to this degree. You see when you screw with the economy of your own state for simple shallow egotistical reasons. This is the event you can see coming a mile away. 

This all matters to another stage with all kind of jagged edges. You see, All this was going through my mind when I was contemplating two issues. 

The first one Was Abu Dhabi. I saw the Warner Brothers hotel (and theme park) and I wondered why the UAE isn’t more outspoken in adding a decent amount. The first one is a sidestep from the  normal theme park, I am not sure how Islam regards Harry Potter and I don’t think it is a good idea to have a third one, but some kind of fairy tale forest, based on Scheherazade and the One Thousand and One Nights in the style of the Dutch Efteling, could work. Too stand out matters and this could be a setting. As the stage increases (see below).

The idea is not an expansion based on rides, but on walks and watching the stories of 1001 Arabian nights and other myths. You see, when I was confronted with the Jinn, the idea erupted to create the script for ‘How to Assassinate a politician’, the idea still works for a number of stages. And adding these stories to any theme park would be a win for the theme park. You see, as we get closer and closer to 2030, the tourism groups will alter. The UAE should expand and create a haven for tourists, non-Arabic tourists. Tourism from Bangladesh and Indonesia will grow to a decent degree, and in all this the Europeans who can afford to go there, they will go there. America is rapidly losing appeal and the European tourist as well as the asian one wants to see new borders. With Saudi Arabia growing Neom and the Line they will get more and more tourists. So offering these people an additional choice (like the train Riyadh-Dubai-Abu Dhabi) will get its own appeal on all this and there is time for the UAE to add to their arsenal and after the storms they need more in more places. You see, I will not give word here, but there is a chance that Dubai (if what I saw was real) will have more issues coming. 

So as the expansions 1,2 and 3 are added the larger addition is a magic carpet ride (like the Efteling ‘de droomvlucht’) but over the three expansions showing the people a new ride and the biggest one ever created showing them the expansions as well as additional layers (read: floors) showing them another collection of stories, Abu Dhabi will become an increasing source for tourists, both local and international. 

All this is also linked to a setting of Residuam Vitam (a story in development), I had some idea of how to set the spin towards the conclusion, but now I addd a few sides and that is where the jagged edge came into play. That is all linked to the stories and the past. You see there was one part that Socrates gave me and the other part I know the story, but not the writer and that combination resulted in something more. That part is still evolving but the interactions are defining me. Parts I did not consider before are now getting in motion. It was linked to ‘How to Assassinate a politician’ because it was an idea I had for Arab TV. Yet the setting is not about Arabs, Islam or the middle east, it was about seeing new frontiers and optionally making groundbreaking efforts. Whilst players like Amazon Prime, Disney and Netflix are focussing on Europe and America. The reality is that in 3-4 years that is the most likely to implode, all whilst the areas I am looking at are growth areas and they will have needs too, as such the evolving ideas others are avoiding. You can say it is its own kind of Ratatouille. And whilst players like Ron DeSantis are so egotistical that they will destroy their own state’s economy by Dousing the Mouse. Other players are more realistic in their approach and that is where both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can capture a decent slice of that tourism gap. You see, we are seeing (for months) the stage of “Travel to all areas of Florida should be done with extreme caution” there will be an impact for both Disney and Warner Brothers and the people going somewhere else, need someplace to go. That is simple abacus logic, but it holds up. You see, most will try to go to EuroDisney or Japan, but like any theme park there is a limit and these two places haven’t been expanding enough. In addition to that there are a decent amount of complaints to the catering of Warner Brothers Japan (all third party complaints, nothing I can vouch for) but these elements add up and now the middle east has one additional track for extended revenue, all because some people considered and placed ego before common sense. I wonder what happens when these players start the blame game, like ‘Republicans blame skewed advertising for Ohio abortion rights victory’, it is merely one small part in a larger stage of failures and that list keeps on growing. So much could have been avoided, but that is on them.

Enjoy the day, Monday is 56% through for me.

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November 19, 2023 · 16:56

Right in front of you

We all have this at times and sometimes it doesn’t even apply to us. We sometimes see the setting and we see the elements, but it takes something more to connect the parts. It can be timing, it can be the past, it can be budgets, there are a whole range of settings and they could all optionally apply. 

As such I was looking at the MacBook Pro. Not for any massive applicable reason, I am quite happy with my own laptop edition (and I am roughly 99.9% missing for the $6,799.00 acquisition). And this was not about the money (the article that is). You see, we all have budget constraints and   choices to make, but at this point as Thanksgiving is merely days away and soon we get Saint Nicholas (Netherlands and Belgium) and Christmas an opportunity opens up for both Apple and Adobe.

You see, most of you might have seen the offer below 

Yet the setting is that plenty cannot apply for that offer (the are no longer, or never were students) and a larger stage comes into play. What if Apple makes a deal that whomever buys a MacBook Pro before the end of the January 2024 (Just to offer a timeline) get in addition a Creative Cloud subscription for 2 years. Time to get adjusted to what Adobe can do, people who want to improve their needs for vlogging and all kind of self presentation will have the best tool at their disposal. Suddenly the need and the contemplation of a MacBook Pro becomes a much larger need. When you can avoid up to $2,500 in Adobe fees, that MacBook Pro becomes a whole lot more appealing. In addition to that after two years people will start to see the benefit of what Adobe brings to the table. One year is not enough, two years could do the trick for both Apple and Adobe. Lets face it, they are well established, but in the holiday season that stage is under duress and to give any customer the best of both worlds tends to be the self fulfilling prophecy any day of the week.

So was this something that was right in front of anyone? The same could be said for the MacBook Pro and a GoPro, but many will have a decent, optionally overkill option in the camera on their mobile phones, as such the connection Apple and Adobe seems more apt for many people. I have been looking at the settings and I was a little surprised that these two had not made such arrangements weeks ago, in that way they optionally had thanksgiving as well in both Canada and  America. So, was that right in front of you? It might not have been and plenty of people aren’t contemplating the MacBook Pro at present, but with all the noise on becoming the next Google partner, or TikTok diva that sets a stage. There are at present 1.1 million TikTok creators and that group is growing rapidly, as such the new players will either go big or go home. I do not always agree with that greed driven term, but in this case you either offer a lot more or you get overlooked. The stage is Youtube is not completely the same. They have 60.2 million creators, there the stage is becoming more and more that either they upgrade or lose people. There are still a fair share of newbies in that regiment, but not as much or as loud as the TikTok community. 

All elements that that I personally believe Apple could and should have considered many weeks ago, but that could be me. 

I will let you sort it out and if you go this path, see what you need and make a proper budget of what YOU can afford. It is wrong to steer anyone into a path they CANNOT afford, my intent is making an optional solution more affordable and the link Apple-Adobe does that. To be honest, unless you have aspirations into Photoshop or Premiere Pro there might not be a reason to go the way of the MacBook Pro, I get that. Still this solution is taring me in the face and it could be for a lot of people a match made in heaven, but that could merely be my view on the matter.

As such Apple (and Adobe) time to wake up, my weekend is still 7.1 hours active and I seem to more awake than they are (optionally a delusional statement).

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