Category Archives: Finance

August 6, 2024 · 12:12

The loser iteration

Two days ago I wrote (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/08/04/the-judge-shouldnt/) with the headline ‘The judge shouldn’t’, it was part speculative and part what I see (again through my eyes it could be regarded as speculative). Today a mere 4 hours ago we get through the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0k44x6mge3o) ‘Google’s online search monopoly is illegal, US judge rules’. We are also given “Google was sued by the US Department of Justice in 2020 over its control of about 90% of the online search market.”, so lets take a look back. It started in 1995 and the ‘idea’ was completed in 1997. To turn about the setting in those days Microsoft was merely badgering their lack of knowledge and lam Netscape to get a browser dominance. Two youthful young sprouts namely Larry Page and Sergei Brin were ahead of the pack by a lot. They looked to a solution to search for text in publicly accessible documents offered by web servers, as opposed to other data. Microsoft was still trying to type words like HTTP and the clever people at Microsoft were able to type FTP. In the age of information the Google founders figured a few things out like ‘What are people trying to find’ this was against the grain for Microsoft who thought that corporations were the key and they went to ‘What are corporations willing to pay for’. The subtle difference is that Microsoft was working towards a slice of the $18,843,980,000,000 revenue that the fortune 500 represent. Google on the other hand decided to cater to its 31,000,000 employees. As such one could (oversimplified) cater to the simple fact that it would take Microsoft 9 million years to get as much data as Google. I do emphasis the oversimplification of this. I was not on the mindset of Google at first. You see I was a dedicated Yahoo user. It took 3 years until I saw that Google offered more and better result. As such in 3 years they gained a dominance. They surpassed Yahoo, Excite, Alta Vista and several other players. We can argue that it helped that Microsoft demolished Netscape. And in the decade that followed Google grew in strength and ability to cater to actual users not the CFO’s of 500 corporations. 

So when we see “It is one of several lawsuits that have been filed against the big tech companies as US antitrust authorities attempt to strengthen competition in the industry.” I believe that there is another ploy in play. The mediocrity losers (like Microsoft) want a slice of the cake they have no business being in. It isn’t just the ‘competition’ it is a reversal of technology that is in play. And in that setting the US is damaging the little benefit they have and leaving it all to China and true Chinese innovators like Huawei and Tencent. I reckon that by 2026 the mobile market will be overrun with Huawei in almost every non-americano place. They threw away the benefits when they forced Huawei to release HarmonyOS 5 years ago. 

Now we see that it is available in 77 languages and the turnover (as is) is getting stronger. Even now as EU nations are discarding the fear mongering of anti-China sentiment by American administration, and the strongest response that the EU nations give is ‘Show us evidence’, America has no answer to that other than debatable setting of ‘could’ and ‘expected’ whilst the evidence just isn’t there. And as we see an optional release this year of HarmonyOS NEXT, Android’s bough get broken on their sibling turning adult. So good luck with that.

Now we see a Judge giving us that there is a monopoly setting. I am not debating that (a lack of evidence I have), but the setting that we get from ““Google is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly,” Judge Mehta wrote in his 277-page opinion” as I see it, the maintenance of a unique field dominance is begotten by the lack of innovation by people like Microsoft who is spreading itself way too thin.  As evidence I ‘present’ Xbox, Solarwinds, CrowdStrike and the list goes on. You see ‘breaking up’ is merely a first step. They will then open the door and the abusive bully (Microsoft) will gleefully shout “Can I play here too?” With a debilitating browser called ‘Edge’. How is that progress? Don’t get me wrong if there is a decent player that can keep up with Google, even Google will applaud that. My worry is that the ideological setting of letting everyone in the sandbox play is all fine, but there is a reason that mothers do not allow toddlers in a sandbox until they reach a certain age. And bar them from playing when they get too old. The worry that I have is that this setting stops Google from evolving beyond the cookie (which is fine by the exploitative advertisers). The setting of other people’s greed who cannot evolve into newer territories. This could now allow Huawei and Tencent to gain even more innovative sides to push into markets where American stage are auto rejected. Tencent is on the cliffhanger to introduce their solution to 150,000,000 homes and they can get there by 2027. 

This will leave Microsoft in a stage where it has no options and no future. As these Fortune 500 will find ways to rise to new frontiers we will see them seeking IBM and Amazon solutions catering a larger downfall of Microsoft. In that stage there is certain a decent amount of space for Google. As they will hand a corporate solution to their ‘office’ suite Microsoft will lose more grounds. The only thing that keeps them up for some time is Excel. But the world is changing what was once a spreadsheet world now becomes an AWS environment and Google can cater there too. I do think that Googles forced push to breaking up is not a great solution, but Google has overcome harder challenges. 

This and my previous article ‘The judge shouldn’t’ gives us the premise that the Antitrust laws are possibly a little obsolete. Microsoft sees this as their ticket in and it is willing to cater to this as it hurts Apple and Google. Two parts the US desperately needs to work at optimum to stop themselves of being overrun by Chinese innovators. You see 7 years ago ByteDance introduced TikTok (not a Peter Pan crocodile). In 7 years it became a near equal of YouTube that was in play 12 years longer. Now I get that YouTube paved the was, but that is the usual tracks for New innovators, they go over the backs from those who went before. Now consider that and the fact that HarmonyOS is about to go toe to toe with Android in only 4 years. That is what I wrong. Not that we think about antitrust. I partially agree with antitrust sentiments. But we need to see that the greed driven use it to keep up, or not to lose their revenue. But that was never the concern of Google (or Apple for that matter). As I see it in the last decade the face of technology was set by Amazon (AWS), Apple (MacWares), Google (Android, G-wares) and IBM (large solutions and Quantum) they create the innovations, players like Microsoft should go under and seek revenue from the Fortune 500. They were the bees knees weren’t they? 

But as I see it, US District Judge Amit Mehta is allowed by law to hand it all over to Chinese innovators. When the EU, Commonwealth nations, Africa and Asia allow these innovator into their governments America becomes a party of one (with 330 million consumers). So consider that the other regions has over 7,500 million people. As I see it it is a hard lesson that America learns twice. Wasn’t the Google premise of 1997 not enough?

Enjoy your day and ponder what benefit was to be had from optionally breaking up Google and who were the actual beneficiaries (not the consumers clearly).

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August 5, 2024 · 13:28

How right I was

I knew I was right. It wasn’t merely my own conviction of self, it was the exposure of two sets of ‘evidence’ as given by some media. The first was my view of gaming, mobile gaming to be presenting the ‘evidence’ Even as it was an ‘advertising’ of the events. It still shows that I was right. You see gaming always pushing the view forward and they forgot what they left behind. I tried to warn Amazon of this, but did they listen? I fear not. Yet that setting now gives Tencent an approachable 5 billion annually as well as give their Tencent Cloud Streaming Services (CSS) an option to not just break into cloud streaming, they also could be handing their TGP (Tencent Gaming Platform) Box a play for the title role in gaming platforms within a year. As it goes forward the TGP will not be an unknown, it will grace third position nearly instantly with only Sony and Nintendo to pass afterwards. I reckon that within 2-3 years it will surpass Sony and Nintendo after that. The benefit for Tencent will not be replacing these two, it will mean that they will be placed next to either or in some cases both. That was the setting that Amazon faced. Yet whilst they heralded ‘Amazon Luna adds more than 40 new games, all from GOG’ last month, they failed to see the larger picture and now Tencent and their TGP are optionally set in a world where they surpass the streaming game providers nearly instantly. Amazon only had to look at the historic market and considered what was possible. Yet their executives didn’t look (apparently) further than the length of their nose and non of them had the nose of Cyrano de Bergerac (or C.D. Bales for that matter). The resulting setting is that Tencent (or as the US fears, China) now gets a new area with gaming Europe and the Middle East as new customers. Another field that the US (with assistance of a short sighted Microsoft) where they hand the keys to a Chinese company. And they did this to themselves. I opened the door by informing Amazon in November 2022 that this field was approachable and ready. So what do we see three days ago in the Financial Review? They title ‘Amazon shares drop as AI costs spook market’ is merely one part, the underlying “investors have signalled growing impatience with tech companies’ efforts to profit from their massive investments in AI”, as well as “Andy Jassy has been cutting costs and focusing on profitability in Amazon’s main online retail business while spending heavily on AI services, which the company has said represent a “multibillion-dollar revenue run rate business”” and all along (for at least 21 months of options towards an estimated $5,000,000,000 annual revenue ignored. How that for captaincy of a ‘Big Tech’ company? And as I saw the gaming precedency go in all directions except for the right one I see that my vision was correct all along.

In a place here they got to drill into new customer places they handed it all to the Chinese opponents. Yay to shortsightedness. 

The second part is a little harder to spot if you do not look in the right direction. That being said, there are a few debatable sights to that. In the first it is my interpretation of these layered facts and if proven right it is less of an issue. Yet I believe that Facebook set the larger premise by not properly investigating the ‘evidence’ they claimed. Their short sighted overseeing hat is going on (relying on ‘their’ AI) and not properly looking at the ‘rules’ or policies they have implemented now gives rise to an altering consumer base that could skip town (their platform), optionally handing a decent chunk of their customer base to Tencent as well. It will not drown them. But answer me this, if you have to report that 10% is skipping your platform. How many shareholders will be happy with the underlying speculated statistics that we get is “The company estimates that 4-5% of those accounts are fake, meaning there may be as many as 150 million fake accounts.” these are the numbers from Facebook. Yet the ‘reality’ from some is that it is 10%-15%. Now consider that these numbers remain and the percentage over the 100% base becomes a number over their ‘new’ 90% base. As such the new base is that it becomes 111% and I believe that 120% is more realistic. Now consider that every investor paying X mounts of dollars now hands their money to 8.3% non valid accounts. It sets the new premise to nearly one out of 10 advertisements misses the target completely. How long until they have to drop prices or actually resolve that issue whilst millions are going somewhere else. That was the second premise that Amazon missed and now we have a massive larger issue. Tencent seemingly has a larger target. In the first to gain their new consumer base all over the world and Facebook (and others) start losing market share. If you think this is nothing ask Microsoft (edge) how they faired against Chrome and whilst they will deny any losses consider that Edge only has a 5% market share against Chrome 65% and Safari 18%. Take that into the settings. Considering that Tencent has a larger reason to promote Harmony OS. A stage that would make China happy as a clam. It will not have a short term impact in view, but in this all Android users in several nations will now have an option to switch Android devices. And the Apple case that is before these courts (se yesterdays article) merely strengthens the premise. I reckon that the Eastern Europe, African, Asian and Middle Eastern countries have a first impact and in that setting  America is the first to lose global market share. This last bit I gave you is highly speculative, but as my settings are confirmed I feel that this is a direction is a valid one. And it is all founded on two players (Amazon and Facebook) let is happen on their watch. Don’t believe me, feel free to read the articles I put on my blog from November 30th 2022 onwards (and several before that). The captains of industry and their governmental tools believed their own spin (read: marketing BS) and took what they spun as ‘truth’. All whilst there were visible parties out there. 

Granted, I am talking in my own street and that is also debatable, but you could read up and conclude for yourself. As such two elements handing billions of revenue that certain players left lying on the floor and I have no non-existent AI, merely my own noggin and it is working fine, thank you very much.

Enjoy this Monday.

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July 28, 2024 · 11:24

As the idea erupted

This happens, we do one thing and suddenly an idea erupts. In this case I was thinking of the second script that I am generating in Final Draft.

It was a setting that made me think for a moment. And this setting came from the days of the Commodore Amiga. I even was working an reset emulated version of the game in Macromedia Flash, just 1-2 weeks before I suddenly was made redundant. I suddenly had to relocate from Stockholm to Gorinchem when I got screwed over by my previous boss. But the thought got to me and I thought “Wouldn’t this make a great small budget movie?” An ‘almost’ one person movie with its own narration. Most of the movie in a sort of CGI and an interaction with computers and a sort of deserted place. It might not be the Hollywood stage of stories and not really for the big screen, but an idea that a streaming company might like or consider. In a stage where they have to pump billion into material, a low budget might have a much better chance. They can test an actor or actress as well as the director and director of filming in a cheaper setting. As such 3-5 people straight out of film school. I reckon that Pedro Pascal, Tom Hanks, Natalie Portman, Scarlett Johansson and Steven Spielberg would be too expensive. But there are over 50,000 actors many of them do not have a place in Bel Air, not to mention of the amount of Directors in the field. New players have a hard time getting through. So, here the speculated number race through my head and now there is a viable setting. The stage of using low budget films to create a talent pool of newbies. You know people like Pedro Pascal had a lucky break. Considering he was the man behind Napoleon Dynamite (vote for Pedro), I know I can be quirky (read: funny) at times. Still the premise remains, luck isn’t always available so what then? I believe that low budget movies are part of that key and places like Dubai Media are likely to break through their own confinements and start breaking through into the West European streaming markets. There is an upside to that. When the current borders by Netflix and Disney plus start pushing their own limitations others could be there taking up the slack. You see one source is stating ‘The US will need 22,700 film directors over the next 10 years’, I cannot vouch for the accuracy there. Yet this implies that ever upper level University will need to fight off job offers with a stick for 100% of their art students. I nice setting, but not realistic. Adding a talent pool becomes essential and not merely for these people, they will all need scripts. There are plenty of them around, but how good are they?

These elements put the larger streamers on the spot and those ready to grow could enter new fields. This puts Dubai Media in a nice place and lets not forget iQiyi and Tencent Media either. America might hate all that is Chinese, but I reckon that Europe is more open to this stage. As the mindset goes that in the first century Decimus Junius Juvenalis stated “Give them bread and games and they will never revolt” It was around the age of Emperor Trajan. What strikes me was that no-one considered owning the bakers. It might be merely a coin per bread, however the Colosseum had 50-80 thousand spectators and that makes for a nice penny. And there were more places over the empire of Rome where these places had crowds. Being the admiral of baker makes perfect sense to me. Even today ‘give them bread and games’ applies but in this setting nowadays growing the streaming services makes a lot more sense. And there to centrality of content becomes a new focal point. Everyone is looking towards Hollywood, but there is a problem there. California is losing their focus, they are saturated, so new borders are required. The Middle East and Asia make sense and when Europe finds out that the American prices are getting too high the aforementioned three players as well as other other streamers will see their markets erupt. Not to mention countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh that over these two countries have a little over half a billion citizens, we see a disrupted market. All looking at California and Hollywood to hand them materials, but the ongoing mass emigration of residents and businesses from California to other U.S. states (Texas) or countries is about to leave California is a near desperate state and the desperate need to pay a lot more. That opens the doors for the Middle East and Asia to make their mark. It is almost the proverbial butterfingered aide putting all egg in one basket. 

All that came to me in a near instant (in less than on hour) whilst was contemplating a low budget movie. I have no idea yet how to do that (I have three other projects in my brains) but it is something to keep in mind. Considering that this setting will take time to implode (before 2026) I still have time and until the end of the year I need to focus on the next two projects but Residuam Vitam comes first. 

Enjoy this Sunday 

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July 18, 2024 · 20:53

Doubt it if you want

I got another message last night on me claiming that Google drops stuff and that I was sitting on IP worth billions. They all want the complete rundown, but these wannabe claimers and optional IP thieves want another freebee. I can do you one better. 

The setting is that your phone takes an image of any text and google Translate will translate the image. That was recently. Or better stated I got an advertisement on the matter today and things just clicked in me. You see (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/02/13/looky-looky/) which I wrote on February 13th 2022, so well over two years ago. I gave the setting that we see now. In my version I used Google glasses with a bluetooth link to the mobile. It was a setting to a new Watchdogs game. Now we get ‘the real deal’ that Google can translate it. Now, I am not claiming that they stole my idea. Google does its own thing and there is even a large chance that they never saw my story. So, what am I trying to say? Well I have been in IT over 40 years. I got into IT in the beginning of the 80’s. When you are that connected to hardware, software and IP. Your mind designs one, the other, or a combination. It is a natural setting. So when I stated that Amazon Google et al left billions on the floor, I was not kidding. The article ‘looky looky’ gives the example that I was ahead of Google by two years (more likely one year, the application did not write itself) as such they have a good idea and they made it work. I was venturing in another direction, one that Google rejected. As such only Amazon and Tencent Technologies remained (Apple as a possible third) The fact that Amazon left these billions on the floor as well made me go tsk, tsk, tsk. Now in the given example with the Google Glasses it was the story towards a game, nothing more. 

So consider that I was able to set the stage (a partial design) of what Google is not able to do. Once they connect to google glasses it comes close to exactly what I had in mind. As such I am speculating that I was three years ahead of them. As such I feel comfortable with the setting that 50 million console in stage one and up to 250 million consoles would be possible (any higher is possible, but I remain driven to conservative numbers) and in this in 4 territories are the focal point. Once this goes towards a massive crowd whomever goes that way will see a lot more revenue. Consider that this streaming solution would break the record that the PlayStation 2 had with 155 million consoles, the most successful console in history. I merely did this by expanding the scope of a console. That was the setting that Amazon and Google left on the floor. In a time when they are all shedding jobs, they overlooked in excess of 5 billion a year (based on my numbers) in the first phase. In addition to this recent numbers from the sources give a rise to speculate that it is possible (depending on production) that the 50,000,000 consoles would be reached within a year and that is less than 10% of a population in three regions and there are at least 9 more regions, so I am confident on my numbers. Amazon and Google left that much on the floor (Microsoft is not welcome here). So when you see that I came up with an idea more than two years ahead of Google, wonder what more they left lying around? I am an IT brain. There is every chance that other people have a different focus that people (and me) do not have. So what can you come up with? I merely focus on gaming and IoT. There is a lot of settings that others can see because their focus is there. A year before that I contemplated that these Walking tours on Youtube could be used by Google to consider a new trace. You see wouldn’t a walking tour video be more interesting if a retail client on that tour could place its advertisement in that video (close to where the shop actually is)? Consider that we got in April 2024 “buyers aged 18-34 are 130% more likely to book a showing if there is a virtual tour available for a listing” and several walking tour makers have well over 100,000 followers. That is real money and that is a real population. I mentioned this around 2020, so what did Google do about that? I still get all kinds of nonsense advertisement. So how much did Google miss out on in this setting? I don’t know, there is a lot I do not know on this, but it is possible that Google does not know that either. Perhaps it is not profitable enough. But what was true in 2020, might represent serious cash in 2024. Johnny Strides (Toronto) has 111K subscribers. Several Dubai video’s have almost 900K views. This is a direct population. People with interest in a topic is a population that engages with the maker (by watching and optionally with feedback), so what happened? Was generic pumping of advertisement enough? With so many fake accounts and farms, at some point Google will be requested to up the quality of their ‘population’. When that happens and advertisement can no longer be seen as a direct marketing channel. They will have to change gears, or they can start to up the quality of their viewers. Two simple examples and as soon as the 5G option for real estate starts elevating real estate in a place like Dubai the numbers start adding up. They had in Q1 2024 $29.9 billion. If this solution would only add 1% (I thing it might be as high as 3%), that amounts to an additional $229,000,000 And that is only ONE CITY. So what about London, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco? You still think this is merely a bluff? All directions that Google should have done already and they didn’t. But they were were ‘eager’ to state two months ago “the company is “simplifying our structures to give employees more opportunity to work on our most innovative and important advances and our biggest company priorities, while reducing bureaucracy and layers.” Which is optionally their way of stating that they shedded 12,000 jobs. I just gave them two reasons to not do that, well one reason, they already dropped the Google Stadia, they never saw the 50 million consoles option, which leaves Amazon, optionally Apple and Tencent technology. Are you starting to see that they (others as well) dropped the ball?

All levels of people are rehashing the view of others on AI and IoT (Internet of Things). So why don’t they act what they preach? Oh and my real estate is merely one channel of a much bigger setting. Real estate was merely the most visible one, but not the only one. 

So have a great day and enjoy the upcoming Friday, for me that day is only 3 more hours away.

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July 13, 2024 · 10:45

6 days a week

This article was shown on Aljazeera (at https://aje.io/lflym6). The story states ‘Why is Greece introducing a six-day working week?’ It seems like a simple enough question. The setting is that Greece needs to kickstart its economy (yet again) and as Greece has no resources, a shortage of people, hospitality is one of the few ways to get this done. We see “While some countries in the world are considering a switch to a four-day working week, Greece is swinging in the opposite direction.” It makes perfect sense to do this. But it is not that simple. We see the following rules “Greece’s new law gives employers in some industries, including businesses that offer 24/7 services, the right to compel employees to work a sixth day in return for an additional 40 percent of their daily wage added to their regular daily wage on the extra working day.” This comes down to someone making €500 a week giving the new setting of €640 a week the €500 plus €100 +40$ getting them to €640. When we see the shortages people have, plenty will accept this idea. I do oppose the setting that Elizabeth Gozme hands us with “Numerous studies have shown that overwork has a detrimental impact on one’s mental health and can often lead to burnout, she said.” I am certain that I can poke holes in that study. You see those studies were done when there was an abundance of revenue sources and when the current revenue was on the three year old premise of cost of living. Now that people are under fire from a simple thing as cost of living, the extra income will point them to a better setting of living. It is not the greatest of ideas, but there is truth in the setting. The option of more money is at present an essential need. The lowering of a debt driven setting for all families will please plenty of people. It will not please all, but with this setting of a 6 day week, call centres might have an option against their competitors in Portugal, Ireland or on Malta. 

The other disagreement I have is with “According to Eurostat, Greeks already work longer hours than most Europeans”, this might be true, but for the most part it was at a set income, now the people get the additional funds. It is not the best reason but I believe it is likely the solution to several settings. The other part iOS that Greece is trying to come into a new era. One where the debts are lowered, a setting which please both residents and government. As such I see a positive side in all of this. In this the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/01/greece-introduces-growth-oriented-six-day-working-week) hands us also “Pro-business government says measure is needed due to shrinking population and shortage of skilled workers” where I see that the shortage of skilled workers is the greatest handicap the Greeks currently seem to have. 

So a new work week setting is the start of a great free Saturday for me.

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July 11, 2024 · 08:23

News I saw two days ago

Now, I get it. It is to days old. Does it still matter? Yes, it does. The article in New Lines Magazine (at https://newlinesmag.com/spotlight/why-pilgrims-are-dying-on-the-hajj/) is giving us ‘Why Pilgrims Are Dying on the Hajj’ with the subtext “Recent deaths of the old and underprepared at Mecca were caused not just by international racketeers but by Saudi visa reforms and digitisation” and I have issues with this. You see, there are several setting mentioned. 

“underprepared at Mecca” is one. This takes a few moments to explain and I will get to that in a moment. Then we get “international racketeers” which I am on board with and “Saudi visa reforms and digitisation” which is something I have not looked at, so that might be a factor. But the story gives us an interesting part which I had not seen before. We are given “Saudi Minister of Health Fahad Al-Jalajel announced that 1,301 pilgrims had died, with nearly 1,080 of them being “not authorised to perform the Hajj.”” So as I see it 83% of the people who had died did not have access to anything because they failed to get the right visa. This does give us another side, we get that 221 people died in this setting (they who had the proper access) out of 1,800,000 pilgrims. So from that we get that 0.0122% of people were a casualty of the heat. This means that 99.98% made it. I hesitate to add an ‘OK’ because I reckon that the heat got to too many, they merely were not a casualty of the heat. Yet no one is looking at that. If you would have had a concert with Taylor Swift with 1.8 million fans the damage might have been a lot worse. This does not reflect on the number one Swiftie and it might not have been on any healthcare. But none of the media reflected on the amazing job that the people under Saudi Minister of Health Fahad Al-Jalajel had achieved under one of the most horrendous circumstances. 

So when you see these facts “underprepared at Mecca” becomes more than debatable, it is a clear bad description of a setting only muslims will understand and to be clear many muslims are from an Arabic region (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain) so for them to be hit to that degree by the heat is something else (not sure how to describe that).

We see that the article gives all kinds of emotional settings (which I get as the media relies on emotion). We are also given “Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly explained that some travel agencies organised Hajj programs using personal visitor visas, which barred holders from entering Mecca. These pilgrims had to take desert routes on foot, without adequate accommodation, exposing them to extreme heat”. A clear setting of “international racketeers” and Saudi Arabia had been drilling down on this. And the part that partially offends me is “In order for the visa brokers, whose market has flourished with the change in the kingdom’s tourism policy, to succeed in providing services to those who want to perform the Hajj without a permit” It offends me because this is the direct consequence of greed. And still the media point the finger at Saudi Arabia, even though the data (when available) clearly shows the ‘illegal’ action of the tourist and the greed of the travel brokers. So how many of these brokers have been arrested or be given the proper limelight exposing their actions? The Hajj is clearly controlled for safety and health reasons. And as I see it there is little to no blame on Saudi Arabia and specifically the minister of Hajj and Umrah Tawfig Al-Rabiah, I will go on and boldly state that he (and his staff) deserves a medal for guiding 99.98% of the Muslim population through a Hajj in such unbearable heat. However, the media does not look that far, because the blame game is more rewarding. 

My side
So, why am I so focussed on this? I am not a Muslim, so that is not it. It is the unreliable one sided push by the media and second is that I thought through an IP that will benefit up to 300,000,000 Muslims. That IP comes with a payday (I have non-altruistic reasons). The point becomes more interesting as Google and Amazon fumbled that ball. So I hope that either the Saudi government, Kingdom Holding Company (Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud) or Tencent Technology does pick up that ball. A revenue stage that would ensure $5,000,000,000 in phase one and close to three times as much after that and this is annual revenue. So, I am driven to this goal. Oh, and Microsoft was not invited to this setting. They might proclaim that they are the most wealthy corporation, but like their most powerful console they claimed to have was made the bitch of Nintendo with their Switch, the weakest console of them all. That is the price of mediocrity as I personally see it. So whilst the media might be going all about how Saudi Arabia fumbled “visa reforms and digitisation”, which I cannot confirm of oppose. The clear setting is that drilling down on visa brokers by the international community becomes essential. 

So, enjoy your day today. I am now 575 steps and 45 minutes away from breakfast.

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July 8, 2024 · 16:51

Two issues caught my attention.

The first issue is given to us by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx002795738o) The article starts with ‘‘I had to downgrade my life’ – US workers in debt to buy groceries’. In this I have a few speculations. You see Groceries are also set by ‘Permanent Price Adjustment’. This is what the producers of milk, bread and pretty much all items do. You see as they have costs and increased costs for whatever reasons. They pass on these cost to the shop, which in turn passes it onto you, the consumer. In the last 3 years things got to be more expensive and as such you feel that brunt. Per nation this varies. In Australia meat went up in total by 20% (over the last 3 years). Milk less so, but plenty of goods did go up and many have not seen an increase in income for years. So as we see “But after four years of rising prices, her support has worn thin – and every time she shops at the supermarket, she is reminded how things have changed for the worse. Ms Ellis works full-time as a nurse’s assistant and has a second part-time job” So in this case (as a republican minded person) I say that this is not on President Biden, not even on former president Trump. You see this is the consequence of having a $34,000,000,000,000 debt. As such businesses are taxed and as I see it, annually any administration will have to come up with $680,000,000,000 in interest alone. In 2023 the USA received (or allegedly received) $4,440,000,000,000. This implies that 15% of all taxed income goes towards interest on the outstanding debt and I have merely set that to 2%, Now consider that all costs that the government pays for is now down graded by 15% (more likely a higher percentage as the interest is also higher than 2%). Now consider that dairy, bread, meat and other options do not get incentives anymore (or at least a lot less). So there two items alone will be a lot more expensive. Then there is the operations of shops. It goes around again and again and that sets the price in many ways. There are more elements, but I am not privy to them. I warned on this several times over the last 8 years. There was going to be a problem and now people are seeing this happen and that is the beginning of draconian changes. So as Stacey Ellis and others see this happen, they go into ‘blame mode’ but they are blaming the wrong people. This is a failing of the entire administration and it started with former president George W. Bush in 2001. Former president Bill Clinton was the last president where green ink was gracing the US books of accounting. In 24 years all presidents have been pushing the debt forward. There was no exit strategy, just the wishful thinking that ‘tomorrow would be a better day’ and now after 24 years it is close to over. Not just in the USA, Europe is in a near similar place. That is what China had been hoping for so as they set the pressure even higher by getting the better deals, the west and others see the unfolding of economic disasters. And I am no economist! So there is the setting that plenty of others (real economics) should have known this and should have pushed for changes and taxing the rich was never an option. When government overreach with their Credit Card for 10%-20% more annually, at some point the card decline point is reached and that is where we are now. The USA, EU nations and others are getting their cards declined. Banks aren’t able to extent loans and whilst some are creative to pass credits via other nations. The banks are realising that the game is almost over. They might have a few options left but that will depend on how creative they can get. For this (also my speculative view) I point at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank. Three banks in 2023 with failures. Yet the media never looked at the abundant government loans they had in their books, it was my speculative view that their bonds were an overreach. So else did Janet Yellen keep a close view? At this point we were given ‘US prosecutors probing collapse of Silicon Valley Bank’ which was March 2023 and after that? Nothing as I can tell, as such spokespeople for the SEC, SVB and the Justice Department declined to comment. That was more than a year ago. So why isn’t the media doing their job? These are all elements of a nation that is running out of money and they are afraid to give out the real deal. I get it, it makes sense but it also means that life in the USA will be getting more and more expensive and when small farmers are breaking with the usual trend and start merely supplying their villages and their ‘friends’ the game changes even further. The big players cannot make claims they downgraded small farmers too often so that will have increased pressures to life in the city. And before you classify that this does not matter, be aware that 90% are small farms in the US. So when they hold back 10% of their farmed good for personal settings prices will be driven up even further. There is a setting where the old times could come back. I remember in the 60’s that I went to the potato farmer in a small shop in the street. That time could be back and it will implode most supermarkets. The stage is almost there that the supermarkets will be too expensive for potatoes, vegetables, fruit, dairy products and meat. When that happens the implosion that it sets off will be seen all over the US, especially in the metropolitan regions. Europe will not be far behind that. 

They are all intertwined so the first one to go will push the others over the edge. And when super markets go, where will you get your shopping? I reckon that California will hold out the longest, but in the end they too will have a problem. For the EU nations, France and Germany will hold out the longest. The UK will hold out, but how they will fare is anyones guess. I reckon that London will be the larger problem. The other cities are closer to rural regions, but for them I cannot say how it will evolve. 

So whilst the BBC gives us the partial goods. We need to see that the Stacey Ellis is but an element of a much larger problem and the media had the information for the longest of times. So why did they not inform you? Which stakeholders were part of the problem? All questions that too many are afraid to ask about. 

Have a great day (Second issue in next story).

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July 1, 2024 · 10:51

The changes to a Digital Currency

I was alerted to a story on https://www.cointribune.com/en/saudi-arabia-joins-the-wrong-blockchain/ stating ‘Saudi Arabia joins the wrong Blockchain…’, well that is merely a matter of opinion. You see the CBDC (aka mBridge) is a digital currency that is controlled by banks. It is under control by China (read Tencent) and is a system that runs next to swift. It could rival it over the next few years and moreover could overtake swift too (speculative view by the writer, aka me). The involvement of Saudi Arabia implies “The kingdom’s integration into the BRICS club is far from trivial. Member countries are clearly expressing their intention to purge the dollar from their exchanges. The arrival of the Saudis could mean that Saudi oil exports to China could one day be conducted via the mBridge blockchain, in yuan”, implies is as I word it, but the implications as quoted is the first major dent into the ‘settings’ that could take a lot of Wall Street out of the frame, again this is purely speculative. Another source, Forbes gives us (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/08/24/bitcoin-vs-cbdcs-analyzing-universal-access-in-digital-currency/) ‘Bitcoin Vs. CBDCs: Analyzing Universal Access In Digital Currency’, which they gave us last August. They also give us “The digital cash revolution was spearheaded first by bitcoin and then by other cryptocurrencies, which has led to the birth of Central Bank Digital Currencies.” This is followed up by “it’s the rise of CBDCs and cryptocurrencies that may represent the most transformative phase in this evolution.” I think that is the larger issue. I don’t trust Bitcoin, not because of the digital setting, but the picture that it is not supported by any coins, or gold make it a virtual currency. ‘Everyone’ is on board for what they think it will bring. But the larger picture becomes that a virtual setting could from today ($62,730.9037) and when it goes to $50,184.7258 tomorrow (worst case scenario) there is nothing stopping it, moreover I reckon that all these pensioners hoping to get rich of this, this downfall will result in lots of pensioners ending with nothing. That was the fear I alway had. This is why I do not trust it. The CBDC (mBridge) is as said cemented in “the country’s central bank.” Forbes also gives us on the of the 23rd of June (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/06/23/cross-border-cbdc-focused-project-mbridge-moves-forward/) “For more than three years, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been working on a cross-border central bank digital currency (CBDC) project known as mBridge. In a nutshell, the project aims to improve efficiency, speed and transparency in cross-border payments.” It is the transparency that matters and the fact that it is under control of a nations central bank. This implies that banks are ultimately responsible for issues, with Bitcoin this is anyones guess. The text “MBridge recently took an important step forward with the completion of its minimal viable product (MVP) stage and the decision by Saudi Arabia to join the project.” You see this means that mBridge would be getting support from places like Aramco and China with their Yuan. This puts the USA on a slippery slope (commercial wise) if the oil dollar pushed to nowhere, the Yuan will gain strides of upgrades. Additional we get “According to China’s Digital Currency Research Institute (DCRI), mBridge transactions take seven seconds and cut cross-border payment costs by 50%.” I believe that the 7 second delay is only applicable to cross border issues and I do believe that this is a temporary delay (before the first upgrade a time upgrade), the reducing of cost by 50% would be cheered by all sides of the equation (probable with the exception of Wall Street). The article ends with “but risks to the initiative will rise sharply if it becomes seen as part of broader U.S.-China competition” a political setting, but as that rises the USA (and optionally the EU) will lose a lot more. For the most the people are fed up with the American bully tactics. It is hurting their pocket. Consider that a decade ago where everyone copied the narrative “Washington officials began warning of Huawei’s ability to embed spying capabilities in its gear” but never was any EVIDENCE presented by anyone. We get setting like ‘could’ and ‘the possibility arises’’. The former director of German intelligence stated to Deutsche Welle that they didn’t understand that technology. So where is the evidence? America presented a case that was settled a decade earlier. China has issues with the US and EU. This is their shot across the bough. And it is one that matters. With billions in revenue gained, with the BRICS setting and with a setting that could replace the oil dollar with the Yuan, Wall Street would lose a lot. So whilst the American administration begs for cheaper oil, all whilst they pretty much shot themselves in the foot. 2025 and 2026 might prove disastrous for both the US and EU. The EU will accept the mBridge solution a lot earlier than the US would and when the Bitcoin loses 20% or more in value. Many pensions will be reduced to zero. It was the risk of a decentralised system with no foundation in any bank or in a commodity like gold, but that is merely my point of view.

Enjoy today, it is still yesterday in Vancouver and Toronto. 

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June 27, 2024 · 01:17

The side not illuminated

The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5111qxl2nro) is giving us ‘Apple in breach of law on App Store, says EU’ We get a few sides, but one side is not given to us. We are given “European Union regulators have accused Apple of being in breach of new laws designed to rein in big tech companies” It sounds nice, but at present the station “rein in big tech companies” is at least sanctimonious. We are also given “The firm charges developers an average of 30% commission on its App Store” and the penalty is given as we are given “The firm faces a potential fine of up to 10% of its global revenue if it fails to comply with the rules”. You see the one part we are NOT given is that all these developers get a channel to publish their work. The get their million by harassing people with advertising. These developers have no interest in giving gamers a real gaming satisfaction (some, but massively too little). So the EU should consider the fallout. You see Apple and Google could do two things. Pull all the games with an advertising channel, stating that this is not permitted. The second part is that they can start charging for the service. The bulk of these gaming ‘companies’ will soon thereafter collapse. You see when all these companies get CHARGED for spreading these games and cyber security. The net thing we see is that these companies will go somewhere else and the dangers of servicing hackers becomes rather large. 

The next part is that this becomes a new setting where the UAE and Saudi Arabia will get the option to offer the same thing Apple and Google did, but charging a mere 5% to 10%, the rest will probably going to China, making the EU and US lose even more revenue. 

All this because the shareholders of Epic Games wanted more revenue and they got this by throwing a tantrum like a child so that they get charged less for services. And lets be clear, they were eager to accept the deal when they were small, now that they are big they can afford to pay for the services. But that is not the only part. Epic Games wanted another path and when even one of these 3rd parties get to be hacked and the players get the damage, Epic Games will face the largest class action lawsuit in history. At that point I wonder how the shareholders will reflect on a pay cycle that will cost them billions. They had a safe environment with Apple and Google, but when that falls away these two will help to give the victims all the numbers and all the support they need to clean out the vaults of all the game developers who took the greedy way out. In addition the EU will get a new problem. As game makers fall flat and optionally move to China or the Middle East the EU will lose revenue. In the last 8 years 10 games made $13,000,000,000. So what will the EU do when that goes to China (or the Middle East)? There are over 200 companies, 105 made over $500,000,000. This was a bad call. These politicians have a socialistic mindset, Take from the rich, but they forget that these rich companies set the foundation of growth. Sergey Brin, Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos were real innovators. The mediocrity of Microsoft is pushing them back more and more. And whilst they might be shown as the richest, they are losing more and more ground. Now with the EU, more and more business will move to better (read: non-European and American) shores. 

And the EU did this to themselves. Consider the DMA:

  • Business users who depend on gatekeepers to offer their services in the single market will have a Fairer business environment (But these services come at a cost, no more Freebees)
  • allow third parties to inter-operate with the gatekeeper’s own services in certain specific situations. (If hacked those services become nullified)

Just to part, the first will nullify these innovators, they cannot afford these services and they will go to a cheap solution making them a target for hackers. The second part will end some games, gamers have no patience and no humour. So when their game stops they will all cry like little children, their toy was taken away and when a hacker does get to upper hand, the class actions will come calling for all these companies. It is a war that the EU cannot win and the larger companies will become empty shells (my prediction). 

Until this first case was decided there was merely a threat of things, now it is coming to pass. 

I wonder what happens to the ‘fake’ economy in Europe when this starts. When advertising through gaming stops. What will the damage be? Amazon, Apple and Google have other means for getting advertising revenue. The others? Anyones guess, but there is a chance that a few hundred companies are sweating because no revenue meant no cost and that could stop now. So they need to find bankers. And what will those bankers demand? All issues that the DMA (Digital Markets Act) did not consider. I believe that this Apple case is opening a can of worms  no one is ready for and the implications are long term.

And now it is Thursday, Enjoy this day when you get to this point.

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June 14, 2024 · 12:30

The teeth that bite

It is a phase we see, the teeth are the realisation that issues are catching up with the world. They knew already, but they decided to keep you all in the dark. For this we need to go to ‘Will China Replace the US As Saudi Arabia’s Main Ally?’ (at https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/will-china-replace-the-us-as-saudi-arabias-main-ally/) there we are given the setting that China is ‘optionally’ replacing the United States as the main ally of Saudi Arabia. You might wonder what this is about. You see, I predicted this happening on June 3rd 2023, a little over a year ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/03/would-you-believe-that/) in ‘Would you believe that?’ I even inferred that earlier, but that was more speculation then the application of Business Intelligence. A year ago, Now lets be clear, I am nowhere near as gifted in analyses as the people in The Diplomat are (or should be) so this is where I got to ‘they decided to keep you all in the dark’, the writing as on the wall and it will become worse. Even as the United Stated is no playing nice to the Middle Eastern nations (Saudi Arabia and the UAE mainly). Their need for cheap oil, their need to keep involved but it is too little too late. Saudi Arabia is catching on and China is there to take up the slack. Brics was an element, but a small one. China was already catering to the needs of Saudi Arabia. 

And that is also my new setting of sales. You see I created the IP that could give Saudi Arabia (or the Kingdom Holding, owned by Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud) And it could give either 5 billion a year in phase one and continuing to 20 billion a year in a later stage. Billions deserted by Google and averted by Amazon and Tencent Technologies as well (Microsoft was not invited). It merely required them to open their eyes. And with this setting there is a clear showing of elements where these players are shown where they lost out. For the most they are all on the AI horse (which does not yet exist) and more importantly, as this IP matures, the moment LLM (Large Language Models) and Deeper Machine learnings grow up and interact, the setting will become even brighter. One pillar of this could cost Facebook a little over 10% in the beginning with around 20%-30% later on. All because the captains of industry were asleep at the wheel. 

And do they connect? Yes, when China wakes up to this revenue and they see that they can go after the treasure trove of Facebook, they will have a vindication of TikTok, more importantly, TikTok could become the main driver in the Middle East, which should partially hurt Google as well (an unintended side effect). Now that the ties between Saudi Arabia and Indonesia are strengthening, the game changes even more. When Bangladesh is reeled in the loss for America and Wall Street is nearly complete. Egypt is already on board, so 3 out of 4 are on the side of Saudi Arabia, all that because people are running after hypes and (more often then not) asleep at the wheel. 

Perhaps a little reminder is in order. Chasing hypes is the consequence of marketing, not sales. One is wishful, the other is an achievement. China seems to have it partially worked out, how far they have come is unknown to me, but the setting that the Diplomat needed to give credence to this stage implies that the controlling powers are now scared that the stage is taken away from them. I think it is already being taken away, but we need to see the news on that (if they even report on this). 

The stage is set to the discussion on China replacing the United States and the west, but the one part that they do not report on is the impact that this economically has. You see, this would push well over $135,000,000,000 from the US and EU towards China. It seems like it will be ‘regarded’ as small fry, but the lack of these funds will definitely hurt the EU and the US, should my IP have the larger impact than the stage changes even further. Consider the UK reporting on a loss of 4 billion, the EU on 65 billion and the US 66 billion loss, how much tighter will their belts end up being? In that same setting Beijing will get the extra revenue which will open door to second and third tier revenue. 

We can argue that I am not seeing this correctly and that would be fair. But I have been right for well over a year, the writing was on the walls on this one. And consider one little extra. I came up with the IP. Not Amazon and not Google, so when you realise that they were asleep how much revenue did they miss by chasing a non existing AI horse? And Apple? Not sure where they stand, they have been minding their own niche which is fair enough. Yet when we consider that they too left (for other reasons) billions in revenue. What learning should we take from that? I say learning because when you are focussed on a niche that is part of a market and you mind your store, you are not doing anything wrong. We need to also see this. But Amazon and Google should have picked up on this. They cannot hide that failure. Merely my point of view.

Have a great day.

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