Category Archives: Finance

January 8, 2024 · 01:17

Is it me?

This is a question we must all ask ourselves. In this case, it might be me. You see, I have issues with the CBC article (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-ontario-cities-aoda-1.7054848) where we see ‘Ontario cities need help — and cash — to meet 2025 accessibility deadline, advocates say’. There is (as I personally see it) a lot missing. The first thing I missed was ‘by 2025’, is that January 1st or December 31st? It is a serious question, the article does not bare that out (or was that bear that out)?

The second part is a partial setting. So when was this all agreed upon? Pre or post Covid. It might be well known, but the article should have given us that in stead of trying to find it. You see, pre Covid issues will have delays all off them (at least 90% off them) will face delays because the world has never faced covid before and Canada had a trucker issue as well. 

So when we get to “The city’s latest report on its accessibility progress listed 56 out of 63 of its accessibility goals as complete as of the end of 2022” I might not be up to speed on a few matters (as I am a little distant from Canada, yet in this 56 out of 63 is a decent achievement. The problem is that we see no timeline. So what timeframe were these 56 achievements gotten by? If it is one year it is awesome, when it has taken 10 years not that much greatness. But the article does not bare that out, does it? 

Then we get “In September, the TTC acknowledged 13 out of its 70 subway stations won’t meet the standards outlined in the AODA by 2025” I personally say that those without nuance will always slam, and advocates are really good at slamming, especially when they can ignore nuance. The other way around they are all about nuance, so go figure. There is also the missing part on why the TTC that 13 of its subway stations are missing these outlines standards. A list would have been helpful.

AODA
Now we need to look at a side of the Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act (AODA). I have nothing against it, I am all for such a setting even though it does not aid or help me. I recognise the stage it should protect. The fact is that I am a numbers man (data, not excel). So these 13 subway stations. What is missing and what size of ontarians are hurt because of it? It is a simple enough question. Now, this is not some kind of trivialisation. The numbers I am seeing are “The recent approximations show that there are estimated to be 382,700 deaf and 3,827,000 hard of hearing people in Canada (CAD, n.d., Malkowski, 2021). Out of these numbers, there are approximately 144,990 deaf and 1,449,000 hard of hearing Ontarians (Malkowski, 2021).” These are serious numbers. So how many blind? How many with mobility issues? More important what could be fixed? That 13 stations are missing out is one thing, how much they are missing out of is another and that too is not given to us. You see there are two kinds of people, the one whinges about everything, the other one tries to fix as much as possible and there is also a snag. Too much information is missing, the article does not bare out what could be fixed and how much more time is required? 

This is not an attack, but these are questions that should have been on the front of the mind of the chief editor of the CBC (I think that would be Brodie Fenlon), a mere simple setting we need to address. It is also a case that some subway stations have other constructions nearby which might have made issues more complex and Toronto is filled with construction tape and construction inhibitors all over the city. The final part is seen under a photograph. It is “The city of Toronto, along with other Ontario cities, needs more cash to help reach its accessibility goals faster” a simple setting that doesn’t get the attention it needs to have. So was it a budgeting issue, was it due to other factors? The more I look at the article, the more questions it raises and the first batch of questions goes straight to the CBC. Too much was missing here and the missing parts weren’t for a follow up. They should have placed it in this article.

This is how I see it and here I might be wrong. Too many people claiming to be journalists are blatantly dim on simple top-line graphics and numbers (or tables and charts) giving clarity where there clearly is none. So why was that?

Just a thought for Ontarians as they get through Sunday. Here it is Monday, so they could call me and ask what will happen tomorrow? A simply joke but it has me in stitches every time. In support of that, should I come to Toronto, I will be time travelling ;-).

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January 7, 2024 · 05:24

The biscuit loafers

Yup, lazy cookie dealers, or as you might know them ‘advertisers’. The BBC made me aware (yesterday) the story we see (at https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67882315) where we are given ‘Google Chrome starts blocking data tracking cookies’, now this was nothing new to me. I was ACTUALLY in a Google building in 2019 when that news hit. I took notice of it and that is about all I did. I am no Cookie Monster (this title was already claimed by a resident at Sesame Street). So when I see now “some advertisers say they will suffer as a result.” With the added “The UK’s competition watchdog, the Competition and Markets Authority, can block the plans if it concludes they will harm other businesses.” Now the question becomes. How fucking stupid can people get? This is not out of the blue, this was said 4 years ago. For 4 years the greed driven stupid population let things slide, they relied on abused technology to get their dollars in and the Competition and Markets Authority is allowing for that extended abuse? How about they do something about the abuse of the media? That’s a novel idea.

So now we get to one of the abusers, his name is Phil Duffield at the Trade Desk who gives us “Google’s solution, the Chrome Privacy Sandbox, which only works on a Chrome browser, likely doesn’t benefit anyone other than Google”, actually yes. It benefits the abused, the actual people surfing the internet. The people you abuse every 10 minutes in a game, or abuse in some way that a specific website pushes to other websites because you looked for a birthday present there that month. The actual users of the web browser, it benefits THEM.

But people like Phil Duffield are deaf to those comments. So why isn’t the BBC asking Mr. Duffield to give a complete account of what they did in the last four years? Why did they not ask him how he prepared to deal with that challenging claim of the removal of cookies? They had 4 years to prepare. 

So whilst you consider the setting of these whinging winers, lets take a look at part two, which is totally unrelated. Yet that second part gives you the larger stage of what happens when you have stupid people letting things slide. The stupid greed driven people on Wall Street no less. Take a look at the news that we saw in the last week regarding Wall Street and set this up against Arab News who gives us (at https://gulfnews.com/business/markets/uae-market-cap-soars-as-top-16-companies-hit-dh27-trillion-1.1704521660385) with ‘UAE market cap soars as top 16 companies hit Dh2.7 trillion’. Now, we get that this is a little confusing, so lets give you a hand and relate this. That mentioned multi trillion Dirham amounts to $735 billion (and change). 16 companies made seven hundred and thirty five billion dollars. And it doesn’t end there, these 16 companies was merely responsible for 74%, the total amount comes down to Dh3.65 trillion. This means that the others got an additional 191 billion. That is what not loafing implies. That is the result of being ready for what comes. For me it partially matters as Emaar Properties got Dh68.1 billion. A real estate mogul and in previous blogs you can see how I created IP that could have benefitted Toronto properties and it would most definitely benefit an Emirati player like Emaar Properties. I say that benefit well over a year ago and now I see that a player like that wants to grow and they could benefit by having an additional technology edge as well. 

Can I translate that into some percentage? No, I cannot, this is a technology no one has. And there is an upside to throwing any system upside down, it opens up additional revenue streams and even at 1% that amounts to an additional Dh680 million. To see this I needed merely one day to adjust the IP I had for Toronto. Phil Duffield. And his dodo’s (those who are about to become extinct) had four years. FOUR YEARS. I merely 0.068% of that to create something bringing in an additional stage that would bring more than Dh680 million. How much more? I honestly do not know, but that is more than I ever had in my life and I just checked my wallet, it is missing that $185,159,950 (I rounded it down to avoid having coins in my wallet). 

So when you put 2 and 2 together you will see that the whiners complain to some watchdog even as they had 4 years to prepare. Me? I merely create another piece of IP. The fun part is that when you put it all together, you see that these loafers left billions on the floor. But they still complain for their lack of imagination and lack of insight in a market where they are supposed to be some kind of captain of industry. Just like the captain of the titanic, he merely was a captain for 5 days, after that he was put ashore 3,800 meters straight down. Insulted? Angry? I get that, but be angry with the likes of these loafers not preparing and then cry foul because they are trying to extent their abuse of your privacy. The BBC never gave you that did they. Just like the Arab News didn’t give you the lowdown on those who never were part of that extended Emirati list. They went extinct just as commerce intended them to be. 

Lets pause a moment on that and realise that we are sinking our own ships by giving these loafers and whiners a platform to continue their limited sighted actions. 

Just a thought to have today.

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January 3, 2024 · 21:40

A strange evolving setting

I saw the article last night (really really early this morning) and it gave me something to think about. The article (at https://www.deccanherald.com/business/economy/with-russian-oil-imports-falling-india-turns-to-saudi-arabia-2832708) comes from Deccan Herald. I do not know them, but it is an Indian paper. The west doesn’t seem to have this. So lets look at what is weird. 

It starts with “at least five cargoes of the sweet Sokol variant heading to other locations, data from vessel tracking agencies showed.” Then there is “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” so whilst we see that imports of Saudi oil, rose by about 4 per cent, Russian oil declined by 22%, the numbers do not add up. I personally believe that Russia is in more trouble then they are letting on. I personally believe that a chunk of that oil is going to Iran to pay for drones. Iran might have oil, but it is embargoed, Russian oil is not and they can make transfer sales and fill their coffers up that way. Now, all this needs to be taken lightly, because there is only one source and I am speculating of that. Consider the deal Russian suppliers had with India. Also consider that by late July 2023, Iran had sent at least 400 Shahed and Mohajer series drones to Russia. That is close to $20 million, per $60 a barrel that is a whole lot of oil and the fact that India is getting less implies (implies is not a fact) that Russia has more than one issue at present. The Shahed drones are running out, more are needed and Russia (through several sources) are lacking in capabilities to get their own drones to the front. This all adds up that Russia has increasing issues to maintain their battlefronts, to maintain their Russian oil supplies and to maintain their manufacturing facilities. Napoleon lost with a lot less problems.

So whilst Saudi Arabia is seeing more revenue from their oil stocks, the question is how long that happens. It is not on Saudi Arabia, but once it is shown that Russia is lacking in a few ways the larger station comes that Russia will be fighting internal and external wars. 

So how right am I?
That remains the larger question. If any of the presented facts through sources is wrong, the entire domino wall comes tumbling down. None of this could be verified and the fact that only the Deccan Herald had this is also a point for debate. There are differences between the data of Kpler and Vortexa and that is fine. But the stage where Russia is delivering 22% less whilst there are implied reasons and none of this backed up by facts, together with the one mention of China with “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” makes me think that there is more going on and somehow someone paid for all those drones, Iran doesn’t give these toys away. 

So there is a stage where merely some of it could be right, but which part? 

In addition to Yesterday
Yesterday I talked about tourism. What I failed to mention is that there was data on the UAE. Reuters gave it 4 days ago (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uaes-abu-dhabi-sees-non-oil-gdp-growth-77-q3-2023-statement-2023-12-29/), I missed it.  There we see ‘UAE’s Abu Dhabi sees non-oil GDP growth of 7.7% in Q3 2023 -statement’. This is huge and it is non-oil growth. Now, this is not merely tourism, this is on more sides, but tourism will be taking a chunk of this. Poland with 1.4% growth is the biggest in the EU last year. This implies that the United Arab Emirates outperformed all EU nations by well over 500%. That is massive. Now, comparing GDP’s is unbalanced and incorrect, I get that. However, these settings imply that tourism in the US and EU are taking a serious dive in 2024. We can debate that this is merely a hiccup, or that it is nothing, a mere blip on the radar. But in light of their faltering GDP and places like Greece, Spain, Italy, London, Paris, New York and Florida need tourism these blips could have severe impacts in these places. If continued there is every chance that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will get access to $25-$30 billion and other places do not. Do you still think it is a little hiccup? Even when we see “Florida visitors contributed $101.9 billion to Florida’s economy and supported over 1.7 million Florida jobs (2021)” now consider that to be 5% less. How many jobs will go south? The European nations cannot even consider losing that much, it would be like the impact of Greek tourism (2002-2008) but now over three nations. That impact will be seen. 

So how accurate is this?
It is not. The reported numbers from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are, but how it affects others is not directly seen and can only be speculated on. What is clear that money spend there will not be spend anywhere else and that implies well over 25 billion lost to other places. How much each is impacted remains a guess. 

So enjoy the day and consider that special deals this summer will be all over Europe and America, so you might get a decently prized vacation this year.

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January 2, 2024 · 23:28

Change starts now

Yup, that is the setting. We can ignore it. We can deny it and we can oppose it. All choices that any of us can make. Are they correct moves? You tell me. I am not saying what you need to believe, I cannot say what you have to trust. But change has started. It basically started lat year, but now the changes start adding up. To see this we need to see the article in the Saudi Gazette (at https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/639241). There we are given ‘Spending of visitors to Saudi Arabia soars 72% to SR100 billion in first 9 months of 2023’. Now we can wonder how much it is, but it amounts to $26,000,000,000 dollars more spend in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Some will say ‘so what?’ And I get that, I have nothing to gain there either. But the fact is that the bulk of all tourists can only spend their money once. This implies that the 26 billion spend there is not getting spend anywhere else and that will matter to a whole range of people. Now, for the most I reckon these are Muslim tourists and they decided not to spend it in Amsterdam, London, Paris or some place in America. The part of the 72% more also matters. It means that as a tourist destination Saudi Arabia is starting to appeal to a whole lot of people. It means that plenty of other economies will not be getting them. As such, when a place like Australia gets only 1 billion less, it will be felt on most corners of any street. Not much mind you. However, there will be an impact. So, what do you think the impact is in London, or even America. America has had bad news after bad news and now there is one indicator that tourism has been impacted in America. It is only one indicator. I reckon that if places like Dubai also sees a larger growth. Places like Tokyo will most likely lose out. 

The fact that Saudi Arabia has been trying to appeal to a larger audience for tourism goes way beyond Islamic tourists. The moment their winter resort and their other places start opening up in the next 4 years, European and American tourist destinations will need to cater in a whole new way and they are for the most broke. They catered to self for so long that there are too little reserves left. The fact that more and more people are considering the UAE as a theme park destination over Disney-world is only now beginning to sink in. Ron DeSantis really messed that up. We get news messages like “Yes, fewer people are visiting Disney World, but the company has shown that it can raise profits by doing a better job serving fewer guests.” It is my speculations that either revenue goes down, or they will cater to a ‘wealthier’ audience, which implies it is a slippery scale to bad times for them too. Then Florida lose a 1 billion investment option by Disney (thanks to their own governor) and at that point an image starts to shape. Be careful what you see, because one swallow does not mean summer has started. Yet the larger stage that Saudi Arabia is creating will imply that their $26 billion windfall is merely the start of more. It does not guarantee success, it merely means that failure is almost no longer a consideration for Saudi Arabia. These things are not the same. But the thing that matters to me is that if that amount was spend there, it was not spend anywhere else and that is the stick that western tourism needs to deal with. There is every chance that it is already to late. There are a few indicators that the Muslim population (which is closing in on 2 billion people) are selecting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as their destination. That is the takeaway that I am seeing from a few articles, not just the one I am referring to now. 

There were more indicators and I wrote about them last year, but to see the result of 72% more in the last year is a definite number that has a much larger impact on global tourism. We will hear all versions of wisdom on how ‘experts’ say that there are solutions. I wonder where they are. You see the west and America specifically haunted the Islamic population and that population is looking for other places to visit. Now this will not imply all Muslims, but consider that 400 million go on vacation in 2024. The chances that they select Saudi Arabia and/or United Arab Emirates over all other destinations is not a large call to make. These players have been catering and perfecting their offers for a few years now and the hostilities they all faced everywhere else has them reeling for a solution and these two players have offers in spades. So as we see 2024, we need to keep an eye on what revenue goes where because the impact is close to global. 

Change is starting to become visible now, but it started last year and as these two deliver more, more and more muslims will consider another place to visit. Preferably in a place where they get a decent treatment as Muslims. It was never a hard sell, it was pretty obvious to begin with.

Enjoy today.

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December 31, 2023 · 13:03

Jan Klaassen, horn blower

Yup, at times this happens. We all have a need to blow our own horn. I am no different and as the world is not giving me any interesting news items. I decided to blow my own horn (of sorts) today. The thought got to me when I saw the article (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2434076/saudi-arabia) called ‘Year in review: How Saudi Arabia made its mark in tech, tourism, diplomacy and entertainment in 2023’ where we see “Successful bid to host World Expo 2030 and ambitious infrastructure projects make the Kingdom a must-visit destination” but that is not the part I saw pondering. It was “Saudi Arabia will look back on 2023 as a year of triumphs, having hosted major events in the fields of technology, culture, sport and diplomacy, while continuing on its path of impressive economic expansion and diversification.” With the added “The Era of Change: Together for a Foresighted Tomorrow,” I offered the Kingdom (via its Consul General) another option to impact millions of Islamics in a few ways, but alas I was turned down. This happens, no hard feelings. My thoughts might not be the thoughts of others and I did try to pass this onto The Kingdom Holdings (apparently also unsuccessful) and that is on me. It might be my wrongly stated view, but I feel strongly about that IP and I believe it would give the Kingdom additional options, especially in diversification. Now, I am trying to complete a ‘novel’ (my personal view) on a script that might appeal to Al Saudiya. Of course I have no high hopes that I will be successful, but I did put my foot in this and I plan to carry it through, successful or not. You see, we all tend to worship success, but I have seen innovation in failure. Innovation missed by Amazon, Apple, Google and IBM (no one cares about the other one, the company with the ‘M’ of mouse) and it matters. In this day an age where they are all presenting AI (which does not yet exist) where they all present on what comes next, I have shown them to miss all manners of innovation on several matters and my previous articles expose some of them. So whilst I am blowing my own horn (scandalously, I admit) we must consider that some are not as hungry for revenue as they seem to be, which was why I tried to sell some of my IP to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It was not that the United Arab Emirates were less of an option, but when the IP is shown in its full view, the choice of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia would make more sense to a whole lot of people and both could easily (very easily) afford it, that and the fact that both want to diversify I felt comfort in making the offer I did. 

Even now I see additional options in several fields (not all directly involving the Middle East), but as time lines go, they could benefit from at least one such path (one shown yesterday at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/12/30/almost-circular/). As such when diversifying it pays to consider paths that are not on everyones mind, but when you consider that path makes sense to many people. That is one side of innovation that we tend to forget. It is not the innovation where everyone is looking at (like no real AI), it is looking in the opposite direction and see what could be done there. As no one is looking, the player doing that could be the only one for some time. And when others wake up they either follow behind, pushing you to make a better product or set the stage for others to become serious players in that field. 

All this matters as it changes the fields and it changes the interactions between players and that matters because that change could affect a whole range of other issues.

Just my $0.02 on the matter. Enjoy the day and the festivities that follow today.

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December 30, 2023 · 12:01

Almost circular

Yup, we get that expression again, we are almost done with another trip around the sun. I am not sure where it comes from. I think I heard it first on Facebook, but that is no indication of origin. So at the end of the year a few things hit me. I want to give them all up here, but in this case I have handed them over to Tencent Holdings Ltd. first. Lets see if they are more awake then Google and Amazon. You see, there is a hiatus appearing and that is not a good thing (not a bad thing either), it merely is and I recognise that. Yet the hiatus was discovered by little me when I was getting to know a program called Final Draft (v12). I am putting in one of my Scripts for Al Saudiya and I got well over 30% done in less then a total time of 24 hours. As I was progressing through the parts (ACT4 in particular) things started to appear before me. Thoughts that I had not had whilst writing the story by itself. Now, this makes sense. Final Draft is a specific solution for a specific audience. Yet what appeared to me more clearly (part of it was already visible, which was why I selected that tool to learn) Is that there is an offset to ‘immediately’ register it with SAG-AFTRA. It set a new station. You see, not only can (what some call) do a Reese Whiterspoon on all this. There is a growing need for a cloud solution and set up a global protection umbrella for scripts. Consider that until a few years ago Hollywood had to deal with 35,000 scripts a year. 350 are made into movies. It is a simple cram of the crop equation. Now consider this same setting but with additional streaming, TV, Nollywood, Bollywood, Scandinavia and so on. We now get closer to more than 100,000 scripts. So how to prevent ‘cross-pollination’? The only real option is to have a cloud solution that registers all what you write into the cloud. It could register as evidence that your IP was invaded upon. But to do that your IP needs to be registered. I think Final Draft, Inc. is already thinking and moving into that direction. Now that Final Draft is pushing towards ‘Writing for Youtube? We’ve got you covered!’ The stage moves even further. You see YouTube is ‘stating’ that there are 38,000,000 active Vloggers. If only 10% is upping their game with Final draft, Final Draft will suddenly need a much larger support system and an optional global one. That was what I was banking on (initially) but I didn’t see the YouTube part, which is of course a nice escalation in my favour. 

In that setting Final Draft needs a support system that can take care of that much more users. They would need two parts. The first is a support system like only NICE CX One can deliver and they need to consider globalisation. If only to set an optional 24:7 setting. That gives them USA, optionally UAE (Abu Dhabi, as Dubai might be too expensive). Somewhere in India and on the east side of China. They now have an overlap in 4 stages, meaning if one has technical difficulties the left and right side of that team can carry the load for a few hours each. China makes more sense then Japan, because the Chinese entertainment industry will get a massive influx in 1-2 years. UAE has more options than Saudi Arabia, but the Arabian entertainment is also due a larger growth. Saudi Arabia is already setting its mind on sports, meaning that streaming is closely followed, hence my Al Saudiya move. 

And they can also support Nollywood. As such, as demand grows Final Draft is about to grow to new heights. And their cloud move makes sense. It is a logical next step to allow their customers chose to select the cloud or keep it local. So as we are about to make another trip around the sun, we need to see that Final Draft was ahead of a lot of people and the one niche that Microsoft ignored for close to 20 years is about to be lost to them. No worries, Google was asleep at the helm as well. Another setting they never saw coming and where was Amazon? I cannot tell, because none of this was on their ship, but if they align with Final Draft on that cloud solution, optionally with NICE, the game changes a little more and both streams will be lost on Microsoft. I predicted a lot of this, not this one, but that implies that Microsoft in the end losses a lot more than before and that is also the new setting. Millions now needing a non-Microsoft solution, how weird this year ends. Not to put to fine a point on this but I am loving this.

Enjoy this day before the end of the year.

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December 27, 2023 · 14:46

The carrot game

This is not a setting where we get entertained by Jasper Carrot (British Comedian). No this is about another game. To see this we need to take a look (at https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/12/26/us-military-training-saudi/) where we are given ‘US to Provide Military Training to Saudi Arabia Under $1B Deal’, you see, this sounds fine. Especially as training a fighter pilot (allegedly) costs $5.6M to train an F16 pilot and $10.9M to train an F22 pilot. The numbers add up quickly and as the article states there are more options there. What took me was “The latest agreement was made amid reports that Washington is considering the resumption of offensive arms sales to the Middle Eastern country.” When you look at “considering the resumption” that is the carrot. It is too late for that, or perhaps I need to be slightly more direct. Or you commit, or you get the fuck out of the way. That is the setting. America has wasted more and more and now they either commit or see their economy collapse, because without Arab billions (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) with support and additional sales to places like Egypt this party is taking of towards Asian borders. Now I do not care either way, I get no commission from any of this (alas). But the carrot game is too dodgy at this point and America needs to wake up. This is the final stretch. Baseball players call this the bottom of the ninth and the game was spoiled, crushed and squandered by egocentric players, diva coaches who were considering THEIR limelight and that list goes on and the media had a part to play as well. Now America needs to either commit or vacate the area. This is seen in other ways too. Defence One (at https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/09/lockheed-hungers-f-35-sustainment-deal-pentagon-says-it-might-not-happen/390380/?oref=defense_one_breaking_nl) gave us in September ‘As Lockheed hungers for F-35 sustainment deal, Pentagon says it might not happen’. A stager I reported on months before that is now coming to fruition. Lockheed (under Pentagon scrutiny) have priced themselves out of the market. As such consider “Lockheed Martin says a new five-year deal to sustain the F-35 fleet won’t be reached by the end of this year.” Now consider what you saw with considering a resumption. So one side cannot afford and the other side will not deliver. How is that not a recipe for disaster? And lets be clear, with the Russian strategic gambles the USA and its NATO partners need to get as much revenue as possible. Especially as news is increasing that the Ukraine is low on ammunition. A stage no one wants to see. Because the one fighting team (team Ukraine) is the only thing preventing Russia to expand into Europe. They might be down on troops, but the Kremlin is not short of delusional aspirations. As such the defence blunders that are coming needs to be avoided and as such there is no space for “considering the resumption” it is way too late for that. On the other hand, the more revenue that is headed for the French coffers, the more France can contribute and that would be novel, the US has not depended on France since 1784 when it was still called the Kingdom of France. Then America didn’t have any revenue, now it has nothing left. As such there will be consequences for America. Which ones? I cannot say, I cannot even hazard a guess. But there are still the notions of France and some kind of alignment to the BRICS constellation. To what degree? There is no open data supporting it, but the news had been spreading. Russia is the only one against it, but as things go there won’t be much of a Russia left. On the upside as Russia is sending its troops to the slaughter there is every chance that Russia (whats left of it) ends up being the first matriarchal nation on the planet. If it happens it only took 3 years to get there. 

In these rocky waters and these larger changing stages America has little choice to either put up or shut up. Feel free to disagree, but look at all the data, do not trust the media by itself and you will see that there is a hiatus on data on several levels and the media never covered that? How come?

As such the NATO players need to reconsider who gives them what evidence and who exactly benefits the spreading  of filtered news. It is a simple enough question. Enjoy the few days between Christmas and New Years Eve.

Enjoy.

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December 25, 2023 · 16:01

How stupid could stupid become?

Yup that was the question and it all started with an article by the CBC. I had to read it twice because I could not believe my eyes. But yes, I did not read it wrong and that is where the howling began. Lets start at the beginning. It all started with ‘Want a job? You’ll have to convince our AI bot first’, the story (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/recruitment-ai-tools-risk-bias-hidden-workers-keywords-1.6718151) gives us “Ever carefully crafted a job application for a role you’re certain that you’re perfect for, only to never hear back? There’s a good chance no one ever saw your application — even if you took the internet’s advice to copy-paste all of the skills from the job description” this gives us a problem on several factors, but the two I am focussing on is IT and recruiters. IT is the first. AI does not exist, not yet at least. What you see are all kinds of data driven tools, primarily set to Machine Learning and Deeper Machine Learning. First off, these tools are awesome. In their proper setting they can reduce workloads and automate CERTAIN processes.

But these machines cannot build, they cannot construct and they cannot deconstruct. To see whether a resume and a position match together you need the second tier, the recruiter (or your own HR department). There are skills involved and at times this skill is more of an art. Seeing how much alike a person is to the position is an art. You can test via a resume of minimum skills are available. Yes, at times it take a certain amount of Excel levels, it might take SQL skill levels or perhaps a good telephone voice. A good HR person (or recruiter) can see this. Machine Learning will not ever get it right. It might get close. 

So whilst we laugh at these experts, the story is less nice, the dangers are decently severe. You see, this is some side of cost reduction, all whilst too many recruiters have no clue what they are doing, I have met a boatload of them. They will brush it off with “This is what the client wants” but it is already too late, they were clueless from the start and it is getting worse. The article also gives  us a nice handle “They found more than 90 per cent of companies were using tools like ATS to initially filter and rank candidates. But they often weren’t using it well. Sometimes, candidates were scored against bloated job descriptions filled with unnecessary and inflexible criteria, which left some qualified candidates “hidden” below others the software deemed a more perfect fit.” It is the “they often weren’t using it well”, you see any machine learning is based on a precise setting, if the setting does not fit, the presented solution is close to useless. And it goes from bad to worse. You see it is seen with “even when the AI claims to be “bias-free.”” You see EVERY Machine learning solution is biased. Bias through data conversion (the programmer), bias through miscommunication (HR, executive and programmer misalignment) and that list goes on. If the data is not presented correctly, it goes wrong and there is no turning back. As such we could speculate that well over 50% of firms using ATS are not getting the best applicant, they are optionally leaving them to real recruiters, and as such handing to their competitors. Wouldn’t that be fun? 

So when we get to “So for now, it’s up to employers and their hiring teams to understand how their AI software works — and any potential downsides” which is a certain way to piss your pants laughing. It is a more personal view, but hiring teams tend to be decently clueless on Machine Learning (what they call AI). That is not their fault. They were never trained for this, yet consider what they are losing out of? Consider a person who never had military training, you now push them in a war stage with a rifle. So how long will this person be alive? And when this person was a scribe, how will he wield his weapon? Consider the man was a trompetist and the fun starts. 

The data mismatches and keeps this person alive by stating he is not a good soldier, lucky bastard. 

The foundation is data and filling jobs is the need of an HR department. Yes, machine learning could optionally reduce the time going through the resume’s. Yet bias sets in at age, ageism is real in Australia and they cannot find people? How quaint, especially in an aging population. Now consider what an executive knows about a job (mostly any job) and what HR knows and consider how most jobs are lost to translation in any machine learning environment. 

Oh, and I haven’t even considered some of these ‘tests’ that recruiters have. Utterly hilarious and we are given that this is up to what they call AI? Oh, the tears are rolling down my cheeks, what fun today is, Christmas day no less. I haven’t had this much fun since my fathers funeral.

So if you wonder how stupid can get, see how recruiters are destroying a market all by themselves. They had to change gears and approach at least 3 years ago. The only thing I see are more and more clueless recruiters and they are ALL trying to fill the same position. And the CBC and their article also gives us this gem “it’s also important to question who built the AI and whose data it was trained on, pointing to the example of Amazon, which in 2018 scrapped its internal recruiting AI tool after discovering it was biased against female job applicants.” So this is a flaw of the lowest level, merely gender. Now consider that recruiters are telling people to copy LinkedIn texts for their resume. How much more bias and wrong filters will pop up? Because that is the result of a recruiter too, they want their bonus and will get it anyway they can. So how many wrong hires have firms made in the last year alone? Amazon might be the visible one, but that list is a lot larger than you think and it goes to the global corporate top. 

So consider what you are facing, consider what these people face and laugh, its Christmas.

Enjoy today.

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December 22, 2023 · 23:44

Collected work

This is what we see at times, we see several cogs, we see that there is a connection, but we cannot see, or comprehend the connection. I am no different. I miss things at times. I am not smarter than you all (merely smarter then some). 

As such we see news, but can we see the connections? I started it yesterday with the phrase “it is a place where the bullies and the woke decide on the fate of others, regardless on what the others want” now we get a few settings, all at the same time. The first is ‘Trump caught on tape pressuring Wayne County officials not to certify election’ (at https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/rudy-giuliani-bankruptcy-new-york-election-b2468135.html) There we are also given “Rudy Giuliani, filing for bankruptcy after being ordered to pay $148m in damages to two Georgia election workers he defamed” You see, this is weird, especially when we see ““No person could have reasonably believed that Mayor Rudy Giuliani would be able to pay such a high punitive amount,” spokesperson Ted Goodman said.”. Rudy is a politician, a lawyer and Mayor of New York from 1994 to 2001, as such, how many defamation cases did the city of New York face between 1994 and 2001? Did any media look into that? Was there any way out of this? The more you look into the matter, the worse it gets, the less the media seems to check, the less politicians seem to do in equal measure (example Zelensky and false yacht rumours). 

Now we see, through ABC (at https://abcnews.go.com/US/fbi-surge-threats-colorado-justices-ruled-trump-primary/story?id=105855615) ‘FBI looking into surge in threats against Colorado justices who ruled Trump can’t be on primary ballot’ it is here that the bullies are shown in force and the insurrection on January 8th 2021 shows just how much problems America has. The bullies are seemingly taking over. In all this they have a larger problem. If this isn’t stopped now, it goes out of control fast. When supreme court judges are swamped with threats, the problem is now starting to look largely out of control and it gets to be worse. On one side we see that 16 states are moving papers to remove Trump from the ballots, and even if that happens, when the primary starts and whomever gets that part decides to put Trump on the ballot America faces another danger. When his ‘friends’ are given leeway and convictions overturned or removed the danger of chaos increases by a lot. If the FBI remains incapable of stopping insurrections and prosecuting bullies the chaos starts in another direction. No matter how that goes, American business will take a massive dive in revenue and that gives America another turn of bad luck and it already has several bad turns to deal with. So whomever (especially Americans) think that I am full of wind and this will never happen ready up on what is going on. The fact that the two media cases on disinformation (Giuliani and Jones) still have no end in sight, the victims are deprived of all funds coming to them and now that Jones is on X and has (according to some) 800,000 followers you should see just how bad things could get. But there is an upside (possible) the amount of nations that will take in Americans is vanishing faster than snowflakes in a heated oven.  In all this America has prized themselves out of many markets, and as such the largest danger becomes will America implode and become a haven of dangers. Some state that the US economy is growing less than ‘predicted’, but it is worse than that. France has gained defence contracts that America was hoping for, so that is $8 billion less. China is gaining more projects in construction, defense, telecom and infrastructure. So they are up more billions and America loses additional billions. So what was not clear here? This has been going on since 2020 and the media was taping over these issues with flammable content. In this the EU is not out of the woods either, more issues are rising and when we add the ‘free Palestine’ and ‘Just stop oil’ cults all over the EU, the picture becomes slightly more complete. They are seemingly heading towards an equally bad place. So feel free to disagree, but the writing is on the wall, on the web and on the Walkman. You merely have to look on what is real and fake and that is another matter that needs attention. Media is too much about fake news. The BBC gives us that a former US Marine (now living in Russia) was allegedly behind the story that Volodymyr Zelensky bought two yachts. Not only was the news false, at least one ship is still for sale. I do not care, but fake news has impact. It seems that members of the US Congress making crucial decisions about military spending were repeating the accusation. Apart from the stupidity that members of US congress have on not vetting information. According to the BBC Tom Tillis, a Republican Senator is one of those less-intelligent people. 

All these matters are important as they connect to a dislodged population and a very dislodged administration (Congress). As such the collected works of bullies and false prophets are now in full swing all over America and I am not sure if the FBI and CIA are equipped to deal with it. The CIA because not only is this a former marine, he is setting the stage from Russia no less and it is impacting US politics and policies. The bullies threatening Colorado judges are getting away with it and the FBI seems unable to deal with this at present. So I think I made my case. There is a stage with collected works and the are diverting the light, the cameras and are giving the limelight to fake news, that is how I see it.

Enjoy the day, the Saturday before Christmas is now 20 minutes away.

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December 22, 2023 · 02:52

In titles

It is a setting we do not see, some of us will never see it. That is not on us, it is not some flaw. We look ahead, we never ever look in a mirror at ourselves whilst acting. As such we will only ever know what we look like through the eyes of others. This is how it is. It remains simple.

We see events, we see some as acts against us, we see some as acts against those who act against us. It is not simple, but it tends to be straightforward. In America a weird setting is going on. It is depriving America to be America and its land to be land of the Americans. We can blame so many people but that is the blame game. We can act against actions seen and perceived, but is that the right action? Consider that one state alone, the state of Colorado has now said that Trump can no longer be on the ballot for the primary citing the insurrection of January 6th as a reason and it was not unanimous. Now we see “Lawyers for Donald Trump on Wednesday urged the US supreme court to reject a request from the special counsel to expeditiously decide whether he was immune from prosecution over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, contending prosecutors lacked standing to bring the petition.” Lets look at the simple setting. “whether he was immune from prosecution over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results” Is that an admission of guilt? We have two distinct settings here. The first is the inability to prosecute all parties to the United States Capitol attack on January 6th 2021, now almost 3 years ago. American law failed on several levels. Now we see “The papers filed by Trump’s lawyers in essence amounted to an attempt to refreeze the case – and indefinitely delay the March 2024 trial date – after prosecutors sought to bypass the potentially lengthy appeals process by directly asking the nation’s highest court to resolve the matter.” As I personally see it, should the Trump legal team pull this off, it will not be a victory. It will be the first clear sign that America is out there to protect bullies and criminals above all else. It will impact American lives for the largest setting. Their allies will stop being allies, corporations will start moving away from the US because the setting has changed and in other settings will we see that others will take a chance on BRICS and its members to give them a fair shake. 

America has taken ‘Innocent until proven guilty’ to new directions and in new settings. It is not some setting I can prove, but I see that many others feel the same way. America is no longer the dream we pursue, it is a place where the bullies and the woke decide on the fate of others, regardless on what the others want. A new form of Shanghai recruitment a naval activity going back to the 1850’s is now in a new setting. For some to take what they want, not what they are entitled to. It changes the game and when corporations start feeling that impact, they will all leave and then what will the big boys do? When these engineers feel that they are no longer treated fairly places like IBM and Google will need to set up new headquarters, one that is nowhere near America. Yet in that same setting what law will they rely on? That is not an easy question to answer. Because when America crashes, Japan will follow soon, no more than 3 years behind America and that takes a whole range of stages in new directions but the larger stage which would be the past tense of America will see places like Amazon, Apple, Google and IBM to save whatever they can, because the simple truth is that without its engineers, training and service solutions these firms will not get anywhere soon and that opens up new players and all of them non-American players. A stage we would not have deemed realistic before Trump started to mess things up. We see (with laughter) that the American Qanon Shaman now reels against Matt Gaetz, but that is merely the beginning. When these people don’t get ‘their’ promised land chaos will come a lot faster. Even now we see threats against judges in Colorado because they upheld the law. 

This is (as I personally see it) getting bed fast and it will get worse soon after that. Stages in motion, motion through the momentum that cannot be controlled and control though laws that are faltering. It seems a simple line, but it is not that simple and the levels of interactions on multiple levels make for what I would see as escalation towards levels of worse. It is not scientific, but it is my view.  So when we go from one view to another view we see the self destructive path that America is on. It is not an accusation, it is an observation. You see, some see suicide as a right, not because it is a right perse, but anyone is entitled to be stupid. And stupid acts tend to end badly. The stage of all this was seen before 2018 when Jamal Khashoggi went missing. The continuation of ignoring basic facts, the stage of evidence to be replaced by the CIA setting of ‘highly likely’ as evidence, which it never was. And as one stage was replaced by another stage we see more and more presumptions, more emotions and lacking more and more facts. The media is largely to blame for all this and as they delved into the world of digital dollars we saw less facts and more emotions. All these events are connected but not linked. It is my personal view that certain people rely on stakeholders to path the way as they do with corporations and policy makers, but now the impact is larger and these stakeholders are getting in each others way. For them it is ego and the money they gain, but in that setting America has been losing more and more and now they rely on less intelligent administrations to claim their goals and bonuses and that is where the train goes off the rails. It is my view and it might be a flawed one. Yet in all this consider that I saw certain military changes to come in late 2020 and these changes are now upon us. It is not the strongest part, but the clearest one as America is down 20 billion in revenue. So how do you think infrastructures are paid for? That and a debt of 31 trillion makes for a really bad setting. Then they upset their wealthiest allies and let China walk in and capture more and more of that revenue. So how will this end? Well, I do not believe it will take much longer for the beginning of the end to come out, but as the ties between China and BRICS become stronger, Europe needs to make choices and they are on their own side, not on the side of anyone else. All this is happening at the same time in many places and I believe that this is due to stakeholders, although I am not sure how they are doing this, I feel that they are gaining terrain at the expense of everyone else. All due to the fact that cash was king and the law fell short. 

I might be completely wrong but that is how I am seeing this.

Enjoy the day, it is Friday here.

 

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