Tag Archives: Anthony Blinken

December 29, 2024 · 22:00

At the close of a year

This might be the last article this year (no promises). I have been haunted by a weird dream, but that is not what this is about. You see, the army recognition group gave us yesterday (at https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2024/saudi-arabia-eyes-up-to-100-turkish-kaan-fighter-jets-as-us-made-f-35-remains-inaccessible) ‘Saudi Arabia eyes up to 100 Turkish Kaan fighter jets as US-made F-35 remains inaccessible.’ I know nothing of this plane, so I am not going in that direction. The setting that the US set the inability of the F35 being handed to Saudi hands is worthy of responding to. You see, the pricing of the F35 is set to “$102.1 million for the F-35C.” This means that America lifted their nose at 10 – 25 billion of hard needed income. The planes, the support and engineering surplus and a few other options. I expected that China would ‘swoop’ in to get that money. It is decently plausible that their were more reasons. I am merely setting that this could also mean the end of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), you see, airbases on foreign ground are meant for allies and America has priced them out of that corner. As I see it Anthony Blinken has done away with that option. You see, only two months ago we got “US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday sought to make headway with Saudi Arabia on” whatever ‘his’ administration is ‘worried’ about. You need to have an ally for that and the fact that the F35 has been ‘unavailable’ since 2012. That is over 12 years, so as the F35 faces being optionally phased out by 2030, they lost one of their biggest customers and provisional ally in the Arabic peninsula as I personally see it. 

And America? Well, who needs an ally who is never there? That is the short and sweet part of this all and for Turkey this might be the sweet deal of the century. At some point the UAE and Egypt will also require 5th gen stealth fighters. This will make it harder for America and China to get traction. I never expected that Turkey was on that level, but that shows you what I know of this field.

And this is not the first time America, Europe and China enter behind the fishnet only to end up with nothing. This potential purchase follows Saudi Arabia’s $3.1 billion agreement with Türkiye in 2023 for the acquisition of 60 Baykar AKINCI unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), set for delivery in 2025 and 2026.

So, when was the last time major governments walked away from a potential 15 billion deal? America might shout tariffs and the upcoming said expansion with their 51st state (Canada), but they forget that Canada is part of a Commonwealth and in their views (the Commonwealth) it amounts to a direct assault on the Commonwealth. So when was the last time a nation was engaged with the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, India, South Africa and at least two dozen more. If they reject all imports from America, the American economy goes the way of the dodo a lot faster than the dodo did. For China it sounds like a prolonged Christmas. You see, if they get traction with the Commonwealth, a desire they never thought realistic, but going after their largest member Canada might set that deal to nominal.

That as the rejection of billions set a dangerous premise for America and Saudi Arabia can play hard to get in that instance. So the next threat by the president elect Trump will set a minefield around (presumed) Marco Rubio making his job next to impossible. 

But we will see what will happen. In the meantime we should send a congratulatory card to Turkey for this achievement.

And of course the card for the next tenant of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), but that is likely to follow in 2025/2026. As I see it, the next two years are close to essential for the next administration to avoid a governmental garage sale. But what do I know?

Still, in retrospect the dream still bugs me. The dream was a job at ADNOC, in Abu Dhabi. They had an AS400 running SPSS 6.1.3 and it had been gathering dust. It wasn’t working and the people at IBM said it was the fault of ADNOC. In the dream I merely had to remove 2 lines (reading ASCII data), two variables Alphanumeric were making a mess of things and removing the two lines solved 96% of the issue. 96% was fixed in the first hour (well for one job). I needed two additional hours to align the alphanumeric fields. And that took two hours to work out, I used Excel for that (the one Microsoft program Microsoft got right). And with that the first month was back on track. A weird setting, as I know next to nothing of ADNOC, I know that they are in oil, and that is all. I haven’t thought of that program in over 2 decades, so what gives? Well, in part technical support at SPSS was perhaps one of the most fulfilling jobs. But the powers that be didn’t see me as IBM material. O well, such is life. 

Time to head to the end of the year and see what 2025 will bring. 

Have a great day and the optional conclusion of a great year.

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December 2, 2024 · 00:04

When it rains, it pours

That was the very first thought I had when I was confronted with the opinion piece in the Middle East Monitor (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241129-saudi-arabia-abandons-pursuit-of-us-defence-treaty-over-israel-stalemate/) where we see ‘Saudi Arabia abandons pursuit of US defence treaty over Israel stalemate’. I have said it before and I will say it again. The US needs to stop their stop gap resolution of “We can do this, if we can have….” That is a setting that is past tense. America needs to open all valves to get any revenue out of Saudi Arabia (and other nations there). Now that we see “Saudi Arabia is now pushing for a more modest military cooperation agreement, two Saudi and four Western officials told Reuters” the US needs to stop its appeasement trajectory. On the plus side China is pretty happy with that flawed approach from America. There is every chance that China will open the flood gates and let Saudi Arabia go nuts on the Chengdu J-20. 

Is this a given? Nope, but for others to see Saudi Arabia embracing the J-20 is the first sign that America is about to lose several contracts. Not all (it fits with the modest military cooperation agreement setting) I predicted a loss of 40% towards the US defense contracts and so far there are indications that 30 billion left American shores for Europe and China (unverified numbers). But the first stage has been reached. And the setting changes if this does happen. The American loans are set to a 90%-95% fulfilment of contracts and there are larger consideration that America will at best get 60%-65% restated for America. And it gets worse for the US, Saudi Arabia has stated to grow its national defense settings and if China makes that happen all whilst Antony Blinken remains in the appeasement setting, the losses will get worse. I speculate a lot worse, but I don’t have access to anything reliable for the numbers in that game. As such, I need to add the ‘speculation’ label as I haven’t been connected to defence parties for 42 years. 

We are also given “Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has again made recognition of Israel conditional on it taking concrete steps to create a Palestinian State” I understand that setting, but I personally belief that this should be done after the eradication of Hamas. Saudi Arabia has been under attack through Iranian proxies for too long and as such the three terrorist organisations Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi their eradication becomes a near essential. You want to doubt this? That’s fair but the essential setting becomes that Iran wants to stop the achievements of Neom (including Sindalah, the Line, Trojena, Oxagon and Magna). At some point One of these three parties will be added to the work roster of them and they will introduce small flaws, flaws that might not be noticed now, but in a year or two when things start to go wrong, the costs will enormous. An Iran will be quiet for a larger share of the table that is how it starts and Saudi Arabia is too far ahead now. If we want to protect the achievements of Saudi Arabia eradicating Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah forces becomes the larger setting. All those weakhearted lefties will argue that these people are really sorry and should be forgiven. I say hell with that and eradicate them all. Or have you all forgotten how Saudi Arabia was on the verge of setting the larger stage to include Israel? Some will say that Hamas was brilliant and I say that this is the final straw setting the stage of eradication for these three puppets of Iran. And Iran knows that Israel is about to settle the attacks on the territory of Israel and that would escalate things even further. Now that will happen in two stages. In the first the attacks that Hezbollah will vie for and the threats from Iran takes it even further. The danger here is that Iran could ‘press’ Houthi forces further and that would force the hand of Saudi Arabia. In that stage China could proceed by handing Saudi Arabia a support setting of the Chengdu J-20 as well as the primary delivery of the speculated Xi’an H-20. I reckon that it is not completed yet, but they could hand 3 of these puppies to Saudi Arabia so that the Saudi Airforce could strike against the Houthi Forces. (I did say could, not will). Consider that these two planes would be readily sought by other Arabian nations (including Egypt, Jordan and Iraq) this is largely speculative, but it allows China to take more and more slices from American defence industries. And as this happens Iran needs to hide, because these choices would reduce the Houthi forces to next to nothing and at that point Iranian actions would fall flat and at that point Israel has options and Hamas should have none left. 

As such the Saudi war hammer will carve slices of Yemen to rubble. In all this there are two sides that matter. The first is that the west ignored that stages that China prepared for and now we see that Saudi Arabia has selected for “a more modest military cooperation agreement” with America, as scheduled the door opens for China to get more of towards America assigned spending. As I personally would speculate is that Saudi Arabia is now in a good place to negotiate and as Blinken seemingly trusted on “We can do this, if we can have….” We see that America endangered its position for defence spending. I believe that I am correct, but there are signs that it is based on a opinion piece. Not on reported facts.

What people need to realise is that this all started on October 7th 2023 when Hamas struck the Nova music festival massacre, overall 1,139 people were killed and 250 Israeli civilians and soldiers were taken as hostages to the Gaza Strip. That started this mess but the media is extremely willing to avoid certain matters. And now we see a larger setting Saudi Arabia is (as I personally see it) ready to find a new defence partner and spend billions with that new partner. 

So when some will call this a mild rain, consider that thought because those billions would have paid for the loans which could now fall short of payment for the next few years.

As such appeasement becomes deadening. America made a massive booboo as I see it. Have a fun day.

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July 29, 2023 · 08:55

It only took three years

That was what pushed into view. I was about to write about something else, a movie idea I had. Yet several other messages came into view which pushed me to realign my focus. You see, I had the view just before CES2020 that Huawei was going to be a large player, much larger than anyone guessed. Even I had not thought that far ahead as certain plays by the STC (Saudi Telecom Company) were not in view yet. Now it becomes a much bigger play and two players (Huawei and STC) could reenforce each other, a setting that was not visible in 2019. So lets take a look.

Article One
The first article was brought to us by the Hindustan Times last year (the year of Soylent Green, another idea that I already wrote about but came to the top of my mind again last night). Here (at https://tech.hindustantimes.com/tech/news/huawei-launches-harmonyos-to-compete-with-google-s-android-71622644049707.html) we are given the idea that Huawei is pushing for a release to 200 million mobile phones. An achievable mark to say the least, the rest was bla bla but the notion was given. 

Article Two
Tech outlook gave us two days ago (at https://www.thetechoutlook.com/news/technology/os/harmony-os-4-0-to-debut-on-august-4-mate-60-5g-expected-to-debut-alongside/) ‘Harmony OS 4.0 to debut on August 4’ and that is the part certain people were all waiting for. The text “Apart from Harmony OS 4.0, the Chinese manufacturer is rumoured to announce the Huawei Mate 60 5G at the HDC 2023 event. As mentioned above, it will be the brand’s first 5G flagship phone after facing US sanctions. While the Mate 60 series is expected to be announced at HDC 2023, the company will hold a dedicated launch event for it in September or October this year.” You see the ‘US sanctions’ part reads nice, but the play doesn’t go there. STC and Huawei has as of the coming month a larger setting. This setting will include Egypt, BanglaDash and Indonesia. This gives them a lot more than the targeted 200 million phones and the moment STC enters the EU they will have the needed traction, the STC 5G network will have some serious ‘umph’ as the expression goes. More important, a network that stretches to that degree will push the US and EU out of a few areas, or at least make them suffer the loss of expected revenue by some analytics, they will tumble twice over. 

I’ll be honest, I saw the play, but not to this degree as the STC was not on my radar. I reckon that there was always a chance that Etisalat (UAE) would grow, but that is not in the cards at present. This is important as the needs of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in the same direction, but they are not aligned. That difference is important and there is a chance that the STC will offer services that include the UAE. I reckon that the UAE might want to connect to Center3 and the STC for the additional business it will bring them, but that would be pure speculation on my side.

What does matter is that with the release of Harmony 4, on August 4th a new play opens up and it might go a long way to allow a digital setting to the MBC group to the settings they have in play at the moment. They will push the sports and news groups that are in the making with larger digital channels, just after they make their IPO offer (which Bloomberg mentioned only 3 weeks ago), now with the channels and digital groups in play it goes well beyond the shores we see at present and with Huawei at the mobile front, they can offer something larger than most have ever had and it will appeal to the hungry revenue entrepreneurs in Indonesia and BanglaDash. They will add hundreds of millions to their pool, hundreds of millions that haven’t ever had access to anything (of that nature). I reckon that by Q1 2024 the STC could have doubled in value and they were never a small player to begin with. Now add Egypt and you get a much larger population, mostly Muslim and all eager to be economic players. I reckon that BRICS had a few ideas on adding Saudi Arabia. And the US? Well they are still screaming middle east stability and requiring cheap oil in a play that is already outdated. And as we can clearly see, Saudi Arabia and China are getting along just fine, no EU or US required. That was a danger for some time and new we are about to see the fruition of these players. You still think the US was in Saudi Arabia for merely ‘stability’ reasons? Come to think of it Janet Yellen was in China recently, with these elements now in view was it really about what they say it was? 

This is in part speculation, it does not make it true, yet you have to wonder if I saw these events unfold, they did not? I might not have seen the impact of the STC and MBC groups in 2019, but these people (Jellen and Blinken) get a large 6 figure income more than me (Jellen gets a 7 figure income), you mean they were in the dark? Go cry me a river, please.

Huawei should have enough to get their target from Egypt, Indonesia and BanglaDash alone and they have close to half a dozen nations more on their mind (China being not the smallest one) and as expansions go, with the Huawei 5G network in play, the STC can grow a lot faster, allowing the MBC sports and news channels to reach a few additional nations. This alone will make people in the EU want to see what they are missing out of. I reckon that the advertisements alone will pay for this caper and then some. A stage that grew in under 4 years, as such the EU and US now have a problem. You see all these TV channels and media players are about to become obsolete to a much larger degree. They can shout MAGA and Karen’s all they like, the rest are able to switch the channel to something they would much rather watch and there it seems that the MBC Group has you covered. I personally wonder what Murdoch is worth by the end of 2024, because when the advertisers go away, he is just shouting arranged news to people who are not interested in listening, that part of the pool he soiled himself as I personally see it.

Enjoy the weekend, or as they say at MBC in Arabic “رحلة جديدة في الخدمات الرقمية”

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July 28, 2023 · 12:51

On the way to……

I was on route to some IP pondering when the Al Jazeera story ‘White House adviser Jake Sullivan meets Saudi crown prince for Jeddah talks’ crossed my path. Immediately the thought   “There are just so many ways you can beg for cheap oil” passed my mind. OK, that might have been out of line, but the premise still sets. The White House have send nearly every large caliber in the direction of Saudi Arabia without making it an overly clear ‘White House’ event. The story also gives us (yet again) ““We were going to, in fact, make them pay the price and make them, in fact, the pariah that they are,” Biden said during a 2019 Democratic debate.” These were hollow words given at the wrong time. And now almost 4 years later the setting is as dire as the US has ever had them, but OK. Try to make us all believe that this is about ““bilateral and regional matters”, the White House said, including initiatives “for a more peaceful, secure, prosperous and stable Middle East”” Sure, make it about the one thing that the Middle East does not need the US to initiate. It has initiated enough imbalance to last it an eternity. Even as Reuters gives us ‘Oil settles above April peak on tighter supply’ (at https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-up-supply-tightness-view-offsets-concerns-rate-hikes-2023-07-27/). We need to consider the impact of “Still, oil dropped on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories fell less than expected and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, leaving the way open for another increase.” You see, this scorcher of a summer on the northern hemisphere is also impacting energy costs, AC and cooling units are working overtime, as such winter could be a killer. I am using could be, because there is no clear evidence that this summer will leave us with a mild winter, implying that the US and EU are facing 5%-15% more energy needs and with the price of oil that could be a massive impact. One source is giving us today “Standard Chartered analysts conclude that crude prices are finally starting to catch up with the reality of a tightly supplied oil market.” Really? I got there months ago, so how are these clowns actually making their money? A tightly supplied market is the premise of shortages close to everywhere, and if you think that the EU is a nice place now, consider 28 members fighting each other for the same oil allotment, should be fun. I will invest in popcorn, we would all want some so we can watch the nagging tea bitches fight this one. I saw some forecast charts, but I had issues with them (optionally) for the most I might not get all the elements in that forecast. That is simple as I am not in that business. Yet the larger part is how the prices (allegedly) dip a little in early 2024, as I see it as these settings continue, the world (EU and USA) will face oil prices of $90+ from December 2023 onwards. I have no idea how high they will get, but the larger setting no matter how managed it is, the shortage will continue and press pressures up to weird levels all over Europe. All that is before China achieves a larger stake in the oil supplies. The US is silently hoping that they get it all from Russia, but without the cap in place China sees a larger benefit vying for the same stack that the US and EU are vying for. Call me nuts, but I reckon that is one scenario that could go south for the EU sooner rather than later. We all see what is given to us as to the events happening, but there is something off in sending National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan a month after Anthony Blinken went there. Something does not add up and it might just be me, but there is more to this visit than the press tells us (which is what the US likely told the press), they need something and cheap oil is the first thing that comes to my mind.

And in the heat the US and EU faces? Well I reckon one barrel of oil per household to keep it cool should do it. Oh no, there are only 2 million barrels to go round (times 90 days = 180) , so what about the other 600 million people. How will they get cooling? And what about winter, which 600 million need to face it without heating? Yes, the equation is not correct, but the sentiment is. For the first time since 1973 will we face an oil shortage. I tried to warn you all but too many called me stupid and insane (the latter might be true). So I will see you buried, frozen to death soon enough. I wonder if anyone realises how dire it is about to become and don’t blame me. All these analysts should have been there long before I arrived at that station, so why weren’t they? They can ignore it for now, but in February when the death count starts, their BS reasoning will be met with the anger of people who lost someone in the big freeze of 2023/2024. What will they do then?

Enjoy the day and enjoy the AC at current prices, the weekend is about to start.

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June 21, 2023 · 22:18

The definition of diplomacy

Yup, we have all been there and me with my mouth at least twice a day. Diplomacy is at times where it is at and I scrapped that word from my dictionary. So as I stated over the last week that Blinky Tony (aka Anthony Blinken) had a hard time coming. First he had to visit Saudi Arabia, the place where its de-facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud was labelled by President Biden as A pariah (before he become president) then the trip went to China where we assume that things did not go well, as we now see (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65969802) the BBC headline ‘Biden calls Xi a dictator a day after Beijing talks’. So what evidence is there that President Xi is a dictator? I am not opposing the view, I merely do not know. You see the dictionary gives us “a ruler with total power over a country, typically one who has obtained control by force.” Now, lets be clear. President Xi was elected. I do not know the election process in China, but there was an election and he was elected in November 2012. Wiki gives us “a Chinese politician who has served as the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and thus as the paramount leader of China, since 2012. Xi has also served as the president of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) since 2013.” There is no mention that he took that nation by force. OK, I is havening to be jesting. The reality is much more serious. I thin this meaningless jab by President Biden implies that there are a few issues. Apart from the ties with Saudi Arabia, there is now a growing concern that Taiwan could be getting a new flag soon enough (see below).

And this was going to happen. For it not to happen, the US would have had to be able to be a real superpower. This is no longer the case. It is rushing from debt ceiling to debt ceiling and the people just know that this clambake will end sooner or later and sooner is now the premise of that game. You see America made gospel of the expression ‘Money talks, bullshit walks’ which has been around since 1968. Now that America has no money left, the ‘friends’ they had are walking away, the people who bled the system dry are vanishing to zero tax havens to live of their final years and the people caught in the middle will vanish without a penny in their name. 

The article gives us ““The reason why Xi Jinping got very upset, in terms of when I shot that balloon down with two box cars full of spy equipment in it, was he didn’t know it was there,” Mr Biden said at the event on Tuesday. “That’s a great embarrassment for dictators. When they didn’t know what happened,” he added.” There is a lot about a balloon no one cares about and there is even less known who the actual owner was. I am not debating that it was Chinese, but was it governmental, military, a science experiment from a Chinese telecom firm. There are many options, but the press is no longer to be trusted, they have been silent on too many things and the US government is all about boasting, but not on revealing ACTUAL facts (for as far as they might be known). As is see the lack of diplomacy by President Biden, there is every chance that China talks are falling flat leaving Taiwan in the middle of nothing. The other side is that there is every chance that the continuation of BRICS will have larger impact on the west and it will diminish America to a much larger degree. The larger part that we do not know is how China and Saudi Arabia will forge their connections. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is now in a central setting to be the hub for connecting Asia, Africa and Europe, a strong setting and NEOM will be that hub implying that this half a trillion location will ensure trillions in business between 2030 and 2050, with news channels, sports inviting the Asian, African and European people to a much larger degree. I wonder if they have made their first designs on the F1 Neom track to start between 2030 and 2035. It will most likely be a magnificent track, add to that the most impressive golf course in history and we will see the first impressions that Saudi Arabia was not wasting money as some imply, they merely lacked vision for what was about to happen and more sport arena’s will follow. Now we see the part of China in a larger degree, the Silk Road and in all that Taiwan will play a more central role (an assumption by me). Two players who played the long game, not some spreadsheet game from quarter to quarter. By the way, what evidence that it was ‘two box cars full of spy equipment’? They blew up the evidence. I am not saying this wasn’t some agent 99 thing, I merely would like to see evidence, just like the evidence on Huawei that so far no one saw or presented. 

As such we get to the headline. The definition of diplomacy is “the profession, activity, or skill of managing international relations, typically by a country’s representatives abroad.”  In this I reckon that there is no managing international relations at present, whatever success Anthony Blinken might have had was undone by one sentence given by President Biden (according to the BBC). As such the situation for Taiwan is not on a good setting, but I might be wrong. And the other issues? Well, we have no idea, but I reckon that China told might have told America to put up or shut up, which is also a speculation by me. No matter how we slice it, there will be more coming soon enough, the question who will be making the initial revelations, China or America?

More soon enough and as we enter the second half of the week, this weekend might give us a little more than we expected.

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June 20, 2023 · 00:01

He said what?

The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-65920024) gives us ‘Blinken and Xi had ‘robust conversation’ in Beijing’ and I had to take a look, if not only to see what they mean with ‘robust conversation’, that is an expression that could go in any direction and not all of them good. The BBC hands us:

“He says he has been seeking to “disabuse” China of the notion the US is “seeking to economically contain them””, sorry this started a 5 minute intermezzo to get a hold of all the laughter I have. The US has been seeking to contain China since Huawei left Nokia and all others behind them in the 5G field, it is still going on, all whilst we have never ever been given CLEAR evidence that Huawei was doing anything negative. In that same timeline we have an Airman handing out classified information, a former president has more classified materials in his toilet than the CIA has in its archive and we have several other issues. That is before we look at Cisco and its issues (which was not intentional, I know). 

And even as several statements came from Strasbourg, the manner of speaking implies a clear American hand on the shoulder of the speaker. 

Then we get “Blinken reiterates that the US does not support Taiwan’s independence – stating it does not wish to change the status quo”,which is a harder issue. You see ‘The first agreement under the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade was signed on June 1, 2023.’ Might be seen as a declaration towards support for its independence. And that is debatable, I get that. It seems to me that America hopes it will go good, but at the same time it is afraid to anger China too much, so I can see how this plays and this is NOT against America. It is to acknowledge that some diplomatic strains are strained as far as they can get. 

Then it is time for “Blinken says some parts of the talks were “constructive”, but adds there is “work to do” in other areas”, OK a diplomatic answer if ever there was one. But in there are missing parts and there is every chance that they are not for our eyes yet. The ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia are worrying America. The new petroleum refinery that they are building in China must be a cause for concern. You see, the refinery is large enough to hand a lot more oil to China and that is where it is most likely to go, a setting America does not find comforting. They are already losing out to a million barrels a day, but with that new refinery that reduction COULD (could being the operative word) be reduced three times over to minus 3 million barrels a day. This could collapse the American economy and create a third world nation called The United Stages of Anything. For Taiwan it is not such a good stage. I reckon that China has been dipping its toe in the water to see how America would react when Taiwan is added back to China and charges Taiwan for overdue book fees and that invoice is likely to be stellar. Now, this is not a given, but that is what I would have done (if I was Chinese). In all likelihood as the EU and the US are uniting with Ukraine against Russia, China sees an opportunity because America is too broke to stop anything and that leaves Taiwan separated, segregated and all alone. A setting China would like at present and with three optional supports for Taiwan too poor to do anything (US, EU and Japan) Taiwan might not have too many options left. I reckon that a similar conversation with Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud took place almost a week ago. I reckon that at present China has all the answers it needs, but that is pure conjecture from my side. 

So as I see it, I wonder just how robust that conversation was, rejections by China does not make the conversation less robust, but that is about the only classification that conversation might have had overall. Am I wrong? Optionally yes, but the larger stage is catering to China, and with the ties with Saudi Arabia now stronger then anything, all whilst the ties with America are more and more dissolving leaves China in a much stronger position and as Saudi Arabia grows, so will the options for Huawei. It will not take long for the larger contracts with Egypt and Syria to start and when that happens, we get a triangle that covers part of Africa, towards Turkey all the way to India. It will not be overnight, but with the power core in Riyadh that setting would become one hell of a central chain for Huawei. And it is not a new setting, I saw this evolution come a little over three years ago. And with that infrastructure NEOM is not merely a small city, it will be a center piece of Saudi Arabia, uniting Africa to Saudi interests and they will all have that new Saudi news channel. It was a game well played and China is adhering to this not merely because it takes the wind out of the sails of America, it will diminish Europe in similar ways. Asia Times gave us in April ‘Huawei eyes Saudi Arabia as its regional hub’, I think it is only the beginning and it is a much larger partnership with China, who will have access to this and the Silk Road, which was never a secret. As such I wonder what expression they would replace ‘robust conversation’ with and very time that expression gets handed to us by the media, ask yourself. What did they mean with that? 

Another day, another step closer to next Friday.

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June 19, 2023 · 01:23

Simple clarity

That should happen, but not always. If the spectator is to be believed, clarity is not on anyones mind. So lets take a look. The article (at https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-saudi-arabia-bought-the-world/) gives us ‘How Saudi Arabia bought the world’, which is in part not false, but this is how the Americans wanted it. It was all about values and commodities and the more the better, that is until they went broke. Now it is all about human values, an option they never considered when they handed the reigns to Wall Street. Now America according to sources “The Treasury Department paid a record $213 billion in interest payments on the national debt in the last quarter of 2022, up $63 billion from the same period a year earlier.” $213 billion a quarter, implying that they are now paying $855 billion a year, that is the price of uncontrolled debt. I gave warning over the last several years, yet everyone was calling me crazy, stupid and a whole range of names. Well now the opposite is coming true. Others are now in charge. First Anthony Blinken (aka Blinky Tony) went to Saudi Arabia, now he is trying to convince China on miscommunications. A good trick if he pulls it off, especially after all the anti-China rhetoric. But this is about the Spectator, who gave us the cool image below.

There we see “Sarah Leah Whitson, of Democracy for the Arab World Now, the organisation founded by Khashoggi, told me the deal makes no sense in purely economic terms. ‘It’s really important to know how much of a premium the Saudis have paid,’ she says. ‘This is a political move.’ In fact, the FT estimates the Saudis will pump $3 billion into their new purchase. That translates into astonishing rewards for individual players. Some already on the Saudi payroll are reportedly getting $200 million a year.” It actually makes sense. You see people love sports and Saudi Arabia has seen what the eyes on Dubai can achieve and now there is a start to set the eyes on Riyadh. Sports are a first. The Jetset sports like F1 and Golf are a start and more is coming. The people want their games, their sports and if you try to count on the amount of video’s on YouTube and TikTok that are about Dubai and the Dubai Mall, the number goes into the millions and they nearly all have counts that are in the triple digits or close to that. That is visibility. With the projects that are coming over the next 5-7 years these numbers are adding up. Saudi Arabia, like China have been playing the long game and now they are the winning side of visibility. It all adds up further when the KSA launches their English version of Al Jazeera, then the numbers start racking up fast. That realisation was why I tried to sell my IP to Saudi Arabia and Kingdom Holding. It is now an IP that is approaching $35 billion in value. There was a reason that I never wanted Microsoft near it, they only screw things up and the value merely goes down. I would if all goes well end up with 5% of that, more than the accumulated wealth of all my ancestors combined. Yet, this is about Saudi Arabia and it matters, you see next we get “Greg Norman, the former champion who runs LIV, has already ‘moved forward’. Asked last year about Khashoggi’s murder, the body dismembered with a bonesaw, he said: ‘Look, we’ve all made mistakes…’” this is why America is losing all options. What evidence is there? The bone-saw bit and all the other bits. The media was in a frenzy pushing speculations, but in the end there is no evidence, there is no evidence of ANY direct involvement by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. That UN essay (aka the joke of the century) was no help either, if nothing else, it merely showed how useless the UN has become. If there was evidence fine.  Yet there was none and when you consider that part. Is it any surprise that Saudi Arabia has had enough of America and the west? 

Then we get “All of this has emboldened MBS, who has been steadily creeping back into international favour since Khashoggi’s murder.” Is it because there was no murder? Was it because there was no evidence? Was it because internationally the people in charge are figuring out that siding with America is starting to be a rather large loss? In this America did this to themselves, they invented “Money talks, bullshit walks” and business America embraced that expression as gospel, the problem is that when you are broke, when you rush from debt ceiling to debt ceiling you have nothing left and when the bulk of your budget goes to the interest, you have little less to buy. It is a simple equation, and an abacus can give you that result it will not be a pretty result, but a result none the less.

Then we get to hedge funds, real estate (London) and several other places. These people go to Saudi Arabia, because Saudi Arabia is one of the few places that has the money. If the ROI (Return on Investment) is good, they are likely to take the offer. It used to be America, but you know where they are at and Japan is almost there too. Consider the wealthiest nation in Europe (Monaco) How many projects did Monaco fund in Europe? Look at that list and see where their money is going, when you figure it out you will see why Saudi Arabia is seemingly buying the world. The world is a commodity and no one else is able or willing to buy it. So hard times are ahead (especially for America and Japan) and we are all falling in the middle. It is why I selected Saudi Arabia, Kingdom Holdings and Tencent Technologies for my IP. I go where the money is and the few players that had the money in the west decided to leave billions on the floor. I don’t have that kind of time for them to wise up and consider what they were missing. It is their choice t rely on wannabe executives, it is their loss. To be honest I never expected my IP to get that high this soon, but the inclusion setting I wrote about a week ago (0.0144%) made it a lot more valuable. And that is not even close to the end. All the settings that came secondary will now have primary impact on others too, merely icing on a yummy cake. Yet in the overall setting where we see the Spectator and the other media copying and paraphrasing that part there is a nasty underside. When the Chinese-Saudi link gets firm, when silk road evolves into a next stage and when the governmental coffers in Europe and the US dry up, what will you be left with? Because that is the moment that pensions fall to zero and that, in a greying population is the nightmare scenario that is now a mere 5-10 years away. I tried to send the warnings, but everyone was so sure that this would never happen. So how many debt ceiling raises will go through next? When sports fall away, as such when advertisers go elsewhere (Google is already setting up that side road in Saudi Arabia this year) when marketing options fall flat and result is the only currency that is allowed. How many corporations will remain? How many jobs will remain? Soon it will be about skills that are bankable, billable hours and it will go to every layer of business. And that is the sad part, we enabled that road all by ourselves. There was never any other outcome there. 

So cheer up, it is about to be Monday, your favourite day of the week is now a week away. 

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June 7, 2023 · 20:40

The boom what?

Yes, a few hours ago, the AL-Monitor gave me the news (and anyone else who reads it) that ‘Canada’s arms exports boom to Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar’ (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/canadas-arms-exports-boom-saudi-arabia-israel-qatar) now you think this is great news (as in size of the news), but you would be wrong. Canada, the other commonwealth nations as well as America are waking up to the coffee (optionally served by Tim Horton himself). When we read “most of the shipments coming from a $15 billion contract reached in 2014 but only approved for export by Canada’s current government” and you consider ‘Is it too little, too late?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/02/is-it-too-little-too-late/), which I wrote on June 2nd and you take the scale of the setting, you will see just how desperate the US is at present. Is it that Saudi Arabia is siding with BRICS? Is it because Saudi Arabia decided to cut production by a million barrels per day? Your guess is as good as mine, yet this is the setting and the Canadian BS line that it only got approved by the current government does not compute with me. This is the result of bad management on too many levels of US administration and now that the end-line is in view and the US is seeing that several nations, and a few not friendly to America are ahead of them. They are trying whatever they can to avert disaster and I am not sure if that is even possible at present. As I personally see it, China played the long game and they are now the expected winning team. Ahead in defence contracts with the KSA, ahead with infrastructure contracts with the KSA and Telecom contracts and now that the others are waking up, we get “The aims of Blinken’s trip, analysts say, include regaining influence with Riyadh over oil prices, fending off Chinese and Russian influence in the region and nurturing hopes for an eventual normalisation of Saudi Arabian-Israeli ties.” What a surprise! I wrote on June 3rd in ‘Would you believe that?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/03/would-you-believe-that/) where I mentioned Russia, China and Iran. I also gave a list where we see these 4 points now directly or indirectly mentioned. 

2. Oil prices.
3. BRICS membership.
4. Defence spendings lost.
5. Iranian diplomatic settings.

And it does not end there. The article (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/7/blinken-starts-saudi-arabia-visit-aimed-at-steadying-relations) also gives us “Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Washington, DC-based think tank, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that discouraging a closer Saudi Arabian-Chinese relationship is probably the most important element of Blinken’s visit.” With the underlining “[Blinken should explain] why Chinese interests do not align with Saudi Arabia and why closer relations in a strategic way inhibit closer relations with Washington”. You see, here is the delusional stage. They are thinking that America still has options. I personally believe it is too late for that, if that was the case then this stage would be handled in 2019 (2015 would have been better), not in 2023. As I see it China merely waited for the US and EU bungle this to the largest degree and that happened in 2020 as China successfully courted The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for a whole range of issues and with the US president labelling the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia a pariah, that moment was reached. It wasn’t merely the straw that broke the camels back, it inhabited the entire convoy of Camels and now the end-game is coming into focus. For me (where I am now) it would in part be nice if Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) pulls it off, but he will have to sweeten the deal by a massive amount, not merely 1-2 promises, but a whole range of issues on paper signed by the president of the United States and here Congress, as well as the Senate better get out of the way, the loss will be too great if they bungle this. Still the chances of success are slim as I see it. Too much has passed and even as the United Nations played its anti-Saudi cards it might not be enough. As such a whole range of issues that got started by a United Nations essay by someone no one cares about, just like that columnist, that names eludes me for now.

More of my ‘insane predictions’ as some trolls would say are now a matter of fact and slowly we see the facts placed on papers as what is ‘stated’, but last week there was none of this. As such is the media doing its job? Are they looking into matters? What else are they missing? For me the case does not change much, other than the chance that Amazon wakes up to the billions they are missing out of, for me Tencent Technologies is a viable solution, it might cost me a little, but that is nothing to what Amazon and Facebook will lose out of. Google decided not to go ahead in this direction and as I am seeing certain players evolving ideas I had on a few occasions, the timing is decent (but it could have been better), still in light of where America is heading, I should be thankful for every dollar I will get out of this deal and as I see it time is growing shorter and shorter. Still as we see America trying to avoid sinking on the spot, we are all in decent fear of how it hits us, because there is no way that the western world (as well as most Commonwealth nations) will not get hit to some extent. All because we had faith in ego driven idiots (sorry, I meant politicians).

So, how is all this playing out for you?

Enjoy the midweek, we are now at 50% of the next weekend timeline.

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June 5, 2023 · 21:12

Slam-dunk for the blogger

Yup, I got to call the slam-dunk in my name, on my name and for my name. Now, I am no basketball fan, not when there is the NHL. But I have to give it to the NBA, that term they got right. So this all happened in the morning as I was pondering what was next on the table. Then the BBC gave me the heads up (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65804768) with the ominous ‘Oil prices rise as Saudi Arabia pledges output cuts’. I had made mention of this danger a few times over the last month alone and now we get “Oil prices have risen after Saudi Arabia said it would make cuts of a million barrels per day (bpd) in July” and remember it is only a million barrels a day, my scenario was a little less nice. This is the exact danger that I predicted and now that it is going to pass, I wonder what the trolls will shout at me. I made mention yesterday that oil prices would be on the calendar of Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) and now it actually is there and it will be a rather not so nice meeting coming up, I reckon that Iran is no longer the main focus. This and the stage of BRICS implies that hard times are ahead for the US and I reckon to some extent the EU too. Because now the US is driven to make the million less be a larger setting for the EU than for the US. A stage well predicted and now it is coming to pass. 

It is Sameer Hashmi, the BBC Middle East business correspondent who gives us “it was widely expected the oil cartel would make production cuts to prop up prices. It appears most members were against the idea, as any cuts would impact oil revenues, which are crucial to keep running their economies.” He is not wrong, but the oversimplified setting is that they are going from 4 barrels at $3, to three barrels at $4. They all still get their $12 (and then some), but the larger stage  comes into play when the equation turns towards 2 barrels for $6, they will still get the same, but now their supplies will last twice as long. The larger problem for the US is that they get 50% for the same price and they still haven’t considered muzzling Brent Oil, those people export over 80% and now something will have to give and that is the stage we are coning to now. So when the UK and EU start feeling the pain of less oil there economy will impact to a much larger extent and as the Just Stop Oil people start shouting victory, the impact of people who cannot pay for heating bills, tradies that can no longer work because their prices need to keep going up, the setting of losses all over rural nations (UK, Germany, Italy and France the most) will be seeing much larger impacts. A stage that was clearly out there. The clearest recent mention I made was on April 13th (almost 2 months ago) at ‘The song remains the same’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/04/13/the-song-remains-the-same/) it was clear that reductions were in the focal point of OPEC members and in this Russia is merely sitting back, for them it works out nicely. But the larger stages of economy are not set to the drawback of oil lacks, no scenario was set to that and that is the largest political failure in the west. In this the one solution they had with Elon Musk is now slipping from their fingers. So not only did the US bite both hands that could be feeding them, whatever comes next might not be in time for the next debt ceiling, implying that default is the only thing that Americans have to look forward to. 

So in the end one player wins, the other player loses, but I get my slam-dunk. Is it fair? That is not the question, I saw this and I predicted this, so why did these high paid politicians not see this? It wasn’t rocket science (well perhaps the Musk solution was). And as options run short the west needs to rethink the political egotistical needs they had and how they will sail with a lack of vision. All that and more hardships will be coming soon and they did this all to themselves and that setting was clear long before Trump took office. A setting of cogs and the first cog will not care what the second and third cog faces. That is the oversimplified truth of the matter, so whilst we watch the news this month, also look at how much enough the people have with the ‘Just stop oil’ movement. As I personally see it, the UK got directly hurt by them and the CAAT all on moral grounds that were massively one sided and based on a fake moral high ground. So remember them when your pump price goes from 189.9p to 293.4p. Don’t blame the pump owner, blame the people who made this happen. 

Enjoy the day (consider a bicycle).

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June 3, 2023 · 23:37

Would you believe that?

That was my very first thought when I saw (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/2/blinken-to-visit-saudi-arabia-to-discuss-strategic-cooperation) ‘Blinken to visit Saudi Arabia to discuss ‘strategic cooperation’’. There we are given “Blinken will “discuss US-Saudi strategic cooperation on regional and global issues and a range of bilateral issues including economic and security cooperation”, the State Department said in a statement.” I have an actual hard time believing that. You see there are a number of issues that count for the US.

1. Banking instabilities.
2. Oil prices.
3. BRICS membership.
4. Defence spendings lost.
5. Iranian diplomatic settings.
6. Syrian diplomatic settings.
7. Outstanding US bonds with the KSA.

These are just 7 issues of a whole range of problems that the US is facing ever since they burned their ally the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The fact that Saudi Arabia walked away from Credit Suisse is making the US rather nervous. They had this idea that when the going gets tough, the purse of Saudi Arabia is there to bail them out. That is not (or no longer) a given. The oil prices are biting the US and cheaper oil is for them essential, even though Brent Crude Oil is doing close no nothing to stop that pain. Then the new issue erupts and I mentioned this yesterday. BRICS is no longer on the sidelines. It wants the western worlds to adjust their views and they now have the muscle to do that, with Saudi Arabia added they will also have the money to do that. I personally think that Saudi Arabia will have a close ally, as such the UAE might become a member too. So now you see how the words of Italy are too little and too late (see my article 2 days ago). 

Then the think I mentioned a few times, as China gets the Saudi Defence spendings, the US will come up short and that bites as well and these are the biggest issues for the US, as such Iran is hardly a blip. OK, it is more but only when the world sees that when you are broke you cannot push for economic sanctions on Iran (Russia too) and it is already selling oil to India or Pakistan (not sure who) and China, so that marble is faltering nicely. Then there is Syria and the largest issue are the outstanding bonds that the US sold. I actually do not know how many the KSA or Kingdom Holdings have, but if they flood the markets they will lose money and it will be disaster for the US, who will run out of cash long before Q3 2024. Which means they are 1-2 quarters short, or perhaps better stated at the end of their wallets they need to survive another 2 quarters. Good luck with that idea in the US. 

So when we see the Al Jazeera article and many others on why Blinky Tony is going to Riyadh, I feel certain that there is a lot more going on that w are being told. And I feel certain that it is not on the media. I feel that the White House administration will never admit to this Oliver Twist moment with “Can I have some more please?” No one would admit to that, it is just a little weird to see the entire BRICS setting a day early and now we get this. 

And he has more on his plate. We get that with “attend Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) talks during his visit, starting on June 6”. I reckon that is when he will make mention of two variables (Iran and Syria). It is speculation, but that is what I (with no diplomatic knowledge) would do.

I reckon that this is one of the hardest times for the US State department ever. It did not help that it was this president who stated to make Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah. So how is that working out?

Enjoy the weekend.

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