That is always merely a breath away. At some point the decline of Oracle became a setting and the looting of the place by the Byzantine Constantine the Great contributed to the Demise of this place. But for the most part I have never heard that Oracle became a non issue. It always struck me weird that this never happened. Even today most of us call the givings of the gods ludicrous, or perhaps better as the Catholics might say sacrilege. Yet the power of the Oracle of Delphi has seemingly never waned to zero.
This is the thought I had today as yesterday the news of Oracle was pushed to the core (mostly at Yahoo Finance) with all kinds of messages. We start with ‘Oracle (ORCL) Initiated at Sell by Rothschild Redburn, $175 Price Target Set’ and it is followed by “According to the firm, the market is materially overestimating the value of Oracle’s contracted cloud revenues. In big, single-tenant, large-scale deployments, the company acts more like a financier than a cloud provider, “with economics far removed from the model investors prize.”” As well as “Oracle’s five-year cloud revenue guidance is equal to $60B in value. This reflects that the market is already pricing in a “risky blue-sky scenario that is unlikely to materialize.”” My first issue is “Why?” You see, even as I do not trust (or believe) AI, its foundations is set on data as it always was set. Data is the holy grail of AI that much is certain and it will proceed to be for decades to come. So, who will you trust with your data? Microsoft with its Azure? As I see it Microsoft can’t see real innovation through the brushes of their own proclaimed innovation and as hackers proclaim that Israel is storing a particular form of its ‘defense’ data in Azure, there might be a security issue as well and that is a total blocker. There are good data solutions in Google, IBM and Amazon, but they all consider Oracle to be the Rolls Royce of data carriers. Then we get the next setting of ‘Nvidia And Oracle Headline 7 Promising Stocks With Mojo: Analysts’ and as they give us “What’s especially impressive is that these stocks are already up 30% or more this year. That blows away the 12.9% gain by the S&P 500 this year. So these are the big winners Wall Street still has high hopes for.” As such we see that in spite of all the stupidities the American political engine performs these two are kind of hot and it makes sense that they are, even if I have some reservations, there was never a doubt that Oracle could grow through it. Making the Statement from Rothschild debatable and me without economic degrees calling Rothschild on this is better then sex (even if Olivia Wilde would call on me in the next hour calling me a fucking tool, this is followed by a rather loud giggle by me). So when we get to ‘Why Oracle’s Cloud Computing Deals With Meta Platforms and OpenAI Make The “Ten Titans” Growth Stock a Top Buy Now’ A setting that the Motley Crew gives us (what do they know of IT?). We are given “the company announced plans to increase Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue by more than 14-fold in five years. But that news proved to be just one splash amid a sea of waves. Reports indicate that Oracle and Meta Platforms are in talks on a $20 billion cloud computing deal. And Oracle and OpenAI are building on their $300 billion partnership with the rollout of five new data centers custom-built for artificial intelligence (AI).” No matter where they are, a setting of a 1400% revenue growth in 5 years is massive, unbelievable massive. Now, no matter how this turns, the one day lightbulb who believe in their AI settings will have to invest the money to make it work and that is the beginning of a setting where Oracle wins, no matter how that turns out. As such the AI wannabe’s are fueling the increase and funding the foundations of these data centers. And we are given “Google Cloud serve a variety of general compute customers. However, Oracle’s data centers are specifically designed for AI.
Oracle is a good example of why lacking a first-mover advantage isn’t a deal-breaker. Oracle’s data centers are newer and faster. And it’s bringing over 70 of them online in just a few years, which is why it expects OCI growth to reach an inflection point in fiscal 2027.” I reckon that it will serve several purposes, but it is more AI set than other centers. Although I have no real idea where Amazon and IBM stand. I reckon that Oracle could cater to the needs of Snowflake and allow its customers to grow their needs and it will do so a lot better than being a little IT guy Azure blue with questions. I saw the need for applications in the lost and found section that could grow adaptation by nearly all airports and when you are in, you are in. I reckon that Interworks should talk to adaptation Snowflake through Oracle, but that is just me.
Then we get an article that matters (at least it seems to). We are given ‘Analyst Says Oracle (ORCL) Deal With OpenAI is ‘Very Risky’ – ‘Not a Customer That Can Pay Their Obligations’’ and I see “One is if you go back to the transcripts from Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) for the last few quarters, you’ll see that it’s not just the last deal from OpenAI that increased their backlog. It’s actually been several quarters where it’s really OpenAI that’s been driving all of this. Having that is the only thing that’s added value to Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) is very risky. That’s not a customer that can pay all their obligations. They’re double, triple booking, maybe quadruple booking capacity. They will not be able to live to those obligations. So if you’re adding $400 billion of market cap to Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) based on that, I think we should revisit the math.” OK, I am in (not knowing the math he talks about), and we see “OpenAI is expected to burn about $115 billion over the next four years and is not projected to be profitable until 2030. Even after Nvidia’s latest $100 billion investment by Nvidia, OpenAI will likely need to raise over $200 billion in total funding to cover its commitments. Some analysts believe Oracle may need to borrow tens of billions to build enough data centers for the deal.” OK, that sounds fair, but some seem to forget that Larry Ellison is worth 344,000 million (sounds much better then 344 billion) as such he can get those numbers without any question. And if he is right he will triple his value overnight as these data centers come online. And that is when the article shoots itself in the foot. They do it by giving us “While we acknowledge the potential of ORCL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.” You see, no matter how great the idea is, it will still need data and Oracle is the best. They can side with fast talking sales people at Azure and see their projects fumble and watch delay after delay happen. As those promising returns fall to ash you can contemplate your choices. That being said, any AI idea is temporary at best, as such the investment in an Oracle engine seems a much better setting and these people have been in data for decades. As such I see the value and the foundation of Oracle, even if some do not or question the setting of Oracle.
I wonder how Pythia sees my predictions and even as I am called ‘duly’ to serve Apollo (I serve Lord Hades in all things) the foundation of predictions is seemingly driven by personal insights and I have been at the foundations of data going back to 1982 so I do feel I am on the right track.
Have a great day and don’t forget to chew your laurel leaves, whether you are about to enjoy a coffee or not. Oh, get your coffee quick, the US government shuts down in 7.5 hours.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 