Tag Archives: tariffs

April 16, 2025 · 23:37

Food for thought

I knew I saw it correctly, or at least I think I did. Greed is eternal and it is always on the edge of what others think is ‘creatively sneaky’ or merely ‘adaptable innovatively wealth bringing’ it is what we can see (to an extent) as the new ‘nouveau riche’ or what some call “people who have recently acquired wealth, typically those perceived as ostentatious or lacking in good taste” and I would add to that part ending with “in good taste” with “in good taste and lacking proper ethicality” because as some will deflect “insider trading” it might be harder to prove as insider trading is hard to reflect on settings that are a mere speculation of a situation and that is where we get to the article that USA Today gave us on April 14th 2025 (at https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/04/14/marjorie-taylor-greene-stocks-trump-tariffs/83087826007/) and that is where I get to my article ‘The fifth branch’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/04/08/the-fifth-branch/) which I wrote nearly a week earlier on April 8th where I wrote “The entire tariff setting never made sense, unless it was by design and tariff on a Mc Donald Island (with only one CIEIO) and a lot of penguins, so that the President can claim medicine imbalance. In the meantime unknown ‘friends’ of his when the markets are at their lowest, buy what they can.” With the added “Even at 1% that is 30 billion and I doubt they will make that much, they will make enough to have their dream retirement at 40-50, something they never thought possible ever. But there you have it and the larger setting is that when the dust settles most offices cannot investigate as too many offices has lost their staff. A weird but not impossible setting.” And now almost a week later we get ‘Marjorie Taylor Greene bought stock before market jumped on Trump tariff pause’ with the subtext “Less than four hours before pausing for 90 days the individual nation tariffs on April 9, Trump told his followers on Truth Social, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” The White House said the post reflected the president’s responsibility “to reassure the markets and Americans about their economic security.”” I don’t sound so crazy now, do I?

So when we consider “That same day, Greene − one of Trump’s closest allies in Congress − bought between $10,000 and $150,000 worth of stock in companies such as Adobe, Apple, NVIDIA, Palantir and Cummins. The day before, on April 8, Greene had purchased another $11,000 to $165,000 of stock in Amazon, FedEx, JP Morgan Chase, Lululemon, Nike, Qualcomm, Tesla and other companies. She also sold between $50,000 and $100,000 worth of U.S. Treasury bills.” Doesn’t it sound nice? So, how much money did she make? And how many others followed that example? The new ‘Nouveau Riche’ are likely to be all MAGA Americans, what a way to throw the new directions into a less credible direction? And this gives me pause to consider a much darker setting for America. You see, if Russia and China figured this out, then they see that the America administration had become greed driven and that is a very predictable setting. I saw this a week before the papers (USA Today) caught on and when did the others catch on? So what do China and Russia have planned? As this plays out they could set the premise to a larger scale, merely as I foresaw that Greed is predictable. So as we also get “Members of Congress have up to 45 days to disclose any stock purchases, which means other members of Congress may have also bought or sold stock shortly before the president changed his tariff policy but have not yet disclosed it.” And as I see it the statement of “The purchases, made public in a federal disclosure on April 11, come as Democrats call for an investigation into whether Trump participated in insider trading.” It is my believe that the laws might not suffice as the law never considered a President setting the premise we just saw. So was President Trump the fool, the baboon (as some call him) or was he deceitfully clever? I let you decide on this and make sure you realise that these market crashes were seemingly set in motion to change the power of money where it wasn’t before. 

And before you call me crazy, I predicted this danger before it happened and as USA Today now gives us, it apparently did happen.

So have a great day and realise that some will have a great day at the expense of others. In the meantime I gave Canadians three days before I wrote ‘The Fifth Branch’ in the story ‘A political game’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/04/05/a-political-game/) where I give the Canadians a free idea to create a video game and as such one person (or one team) gets a chance to create a video game. A game that might make them some money the old way, through innovative thinking. No markets needed to be manipulated. 

So have a great day and as I end my midweek in 29 minutes. Vancouver still has 18 hours to make the most of their midweek.

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April 6, 2025 · 20:39

The color of grass

The CBC just alerted me to something that kind of slipped my mind. There is no reason why it didn’t was on my mind, mainly because I do not harvest for headhunters. But when I saw the story, I thought that it would make a lot of sense. The story (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/us-scientists-canada-1.7502527) gives us ‘Top American scientists just lost their jobs. Canada is rolling out the welcome mat’ the byline of this story is “Manitoba, B.C., Ontario looking to recruit top scientists from the U.S.” You see, as we read and know from the last few months “Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is aiming to cut 20,000 jobs at agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).” So here we have Canada, United Kingdom, Australia, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Germany seeking specialists of all kinds of people and as they were shown the exit by America, others will look happily to bolster their own sides with people that they couldn’t get before. As such Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be getting several Christmas hampers, optionally a dozen this year. Even if he is under orders, there is nothing like governmental gratitude from these nations. Of the sidelines. I can advise these governments that the Hampers at Fortnum and Mason (at https://www.fortnumandmason.com/international-delivery-category) are the best.

As such we see an inverted version of the grass is always greener on the other fellows grave. We now (mostly the Commonwealth nations) are the greener grass. So as we see “One example: Dr. Madhukar Pai, the director of the McGill global health programs, told CBC News he’s expecting a record number of applicants for a new tenure-track job in his department, opening in the coming weeks. It’s a field hit especially hard amid sweeping cuts at the U.S. Agency for International Development that are slashing life-saving programs across the world tackling diseases like HIV and malaria.” As well as “Scientists overseeing cancer research, vaccine and drug approvals, public health and tobacco regulations are also among 10,000 already laid off. Public health experts say the mass firings could have catastrophic impacts for the U.S. and the world.” Here I say that it s more the US then the rest of the world. This is the first instance of an American brain drain. The second setting was the market crashing over the last two days, making these people accept other locations a little sooner than accepted. As we see that ‘Trump tariffs wipe $5 trillion off Wall Street’, we also need to realise that some of these people are hurt in their finances and they seek a way out of the uncertainty. So these people are roaring to be the first with a decent contract under their belt. So as we see “Kevin Griffis, a former CDC communications director, resigned in protest two weeks ago after three years at the agency. He said the mass firings were widely felt and could have unanticipated consequences. If the agency needed to hold a press conference today about a major public health threat, “there’s no one who even knows how to run the sound anymore. Because they fired the studio team,” he said.” That case alone will speed China to remove whatever options the other players have. With that setting consider Dr. Fauci joining a Swiss medical enterprise, and according to Kevin Griffis when Americans do not know what to do when a health crises arrives. So when the next ‘covid’ arrive, the people can rely on the treatments through President Trumps ‘advised’ Hydroxychloroquine, but when that fails? What then. Canada can get a setting to be the next best thing to the CDC, then there is the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and they are a little tired of the American tariff game and could slap a nice 25% tariff on that. The settings for America go from grim to deep black soon enough. Even now we get headlines like ‘Elon Musk backs ‘free trade zone’ between US and Europe’ (source: Al Jazeera) and that is merely for openers.

So whilst the Commonwealth replenishes their shorts on medical experts, America need to wonder what else they could lose. I am still of the mind that America is near to implosion moment of their debts and shutdowns are likely to happen, when that does, these first ‘evaders’ are is a much better position than any other American, even now as the 5 trillion write off hits the entirety of the tech corporation, some will make it, some others will make massive losses taking their home selling efforts almost essential and the billionaires who relied on their Bitcoin, need to realise that this currency is still a few percentage points. So Sergei Brin (all-father of Google) had $142.2 billion, now at 7% less, he seemingly lost 9.95 billion, not that much overall, still more than the 5 billion annual I had reserved for his firm as additional revenue (he dumped the Google Stadia, so that was that) and as Jeff Bezos seemingly lost 13.51 billion, my IP could set him topside in around a speculative 2 years. It is all relative as I see it. Still, this is not about me. As America is losing the handles on the world thought essential services, others will step in to make a move for themself (and I am no different). You see, as the issues evolve, we see scientists that were in unshakable positions, were suddenly shown the door and now as we see “Canadian provinces are already trying to attract American health experts suddenly out of a job. Manitoba is “rolling out the welcome mat” for U.S. trained doctors, nurses and researchers affected by the cuts, said Minister of Health Uzoma Asagwara in a statement to CBC.” And this is only the beginning. As some other fields are shown the cutdowns, we see other ventures all over Europe and even in the Middle East, they are smiling and wringing their hands as fields of opportunity are given to them. The Hollywood fires gave rise to the Dubai Media Group now getting their hands on several lucrative projects. No this is in no way the fault of President Trump, but these small kicks can become a lot bigger. They are not related, but these separate items can become related. As health scientists have possible connections to pharmaceutical corporations, the impact to the larger stage will be visible in less than two years, so consider that in two years the revenue now (which is expected to be $605-$635 billion on medicine in 2025) gets down by 20% (speculative number) in 2027. So what happens when $121 billion goes to other places (like Europe)? So we have Defense (2022-2026) went to China and Europe (close to 90 billion)  now presumption on pharmaceuticals $121 billion less, and the Middle East are now aiming for $10 billion handing that to others and taking that out of America. So how many hits can the American economy endure the loss of of revenue in added fields of revenue again and again. At present (as I personally see it) America needs to pay interest on 36 trillions, which is a little over 2 trillion, all whilst the tax revenue is around $4.92 trillion (2024), so 50% is out on paying the interest of outstanding debts. Do you realise the issues America faces? And now Canada has a first jab at the fired experts in healthcare on several levels and in several disciplines. So how was the tariff game a bright idea? 

And as America loses more and more it is (as I personally see it) nicely on its way to become a third world country, the first in the western world. And I am not surprised as I predicted this as early as June 8th 2014 in the story called ’17 or 70 trillion?’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2014/06/08/17-or-70-trillion/) when I wrote “My issue is not just with the US debt levels, it is also about the ‘blasé’ approach economists are throwing at the people stating that things are not that bad and that it will all work out. That part is a figment of THEIR imagination, because for things to resolve, actions must be taken and none are getting taken at present (or in the near future for that matter). My biggest issue with the Article of Chad Stone is seen at the end. His quote “Lowering the debt ratio comes at a cost, not only risking the recovery if it’s done too fast but also in burdening businesses and households with larger spending cuts, higher taxes or both to stabilize the debt ratio“” I foresaw the dangers 11 years ago, not to this degree, but the setting was clear and as the people are now vacating the sinking ship, the seas become heavy for America and they basically almost capsized the boat themselves. A larger setting is connected and even if we are ‘in denial’ that there is a problem, the people are seemingly rising up all over the United States and Europe with their ‘Hands off’ calls. ABC Australia is giving us ‘Thousands protest against Trump and Musk in ‘Hands Off!’ rallies across US and Europe’ (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-06/thousands-rally-trump-musk-hands-off-protests-across-us/105143038) the American setting has usually been ‘The best defense is a good offense’, I do not disagree, yet I am more on the stage of Julius Caesar (Italian army, 65 BC) he states “the first stage is to protect yourself from enemy retaliation” a better setting and as I see it America has left itself open like never seen before. The (slightly less rich) friends from the American administration are now seeking their own save spot, the enemies are enticing former American friends and I warned of that in the years before 2025. Now we see another nail cast into a coffin named ‘defaulted’ And this is not the end, there is every chance that the defense industry will see its own setting of people seeking early retirement and the market crashes will make them seek other shores, their money is in danger of losing the bulk of its value. Will the markets get back? I feel certain they will, but will they recover enough and soon enough? That becomes the question. To write off over 5 trillion is not easily fixed, that much is clear. The next setting are the tariffs, America needs to cancel them for Europe and the Commonwealth to say the least, that might stem the flow of brainpower, but that is a presumption by me. The opponents of America are battering America’s walls and they did mostly this to themself. 

As such I am on the side of Canada, our Commonwealth brother. And if Manitoba, B.C., and Ontario gets their hands on excellent health experts, then I say “Hurray for Canada” and I raise my cup of coffee to them (no beer in my fridge). 

So you all have a great day and if you are on the board of scientists at the CDC, consider the lakes, excellent trout and pike fishing. The air is clean and the people are mostly friendly (not too much to Maple Leaf friends), they revere the Winnipeg Jets. So that’s all for now and see you all on the flip side.

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April 4, 2025 · 23:24

When is the cure worse than the disease?

That is the question that is haunting me. I see ideas in several media and they make sense, they really do. Yet I am still haunted with the ideas in my head, realising very well that I could be wrong. So is it about right and wrong? No, in the first instance it has become about the unreliability of the press. There are too many signals out there. Then the ‘influencers’ came. With their need for digital gratification, digital reinforcement and the other settings, the conspiracy theorists. As some see me as one of those, I offer the idea that I am merely looking for evidence and that requires a reliable press, one that too often no longer exists. Whilst we look at the signals, we often ignore the spreader of the news and the channels they are moved to. 

There are noises that some republicans are deserting President Trump and stop the tariffs on Canada. It is a first setting, but is it enough?

I believe the damage was already done, and whilst you think that this is a joke, consider the other one. 

So, is the joke a mere meme? Is the meme real? Well, the data can be checked and as such why exempt Russia and not Canada? Fentanyl? The data show that Canada is hardly a bump on the scales. Then we get the classification of Fentanyl. According to the United States Sentencing Commission 86.4% were United States citizens. So what gives? According to their statistics

  • Southern District of California (229);
  • District of Arizona (177);
  • Western District of Texas (128);
  • Southern District of New York (94);
  • District of Massachusetts (90);
  • Eastern District of Missouri (90).

As such, the direct route from Canada into the US, we get from Vancouver into Seattle and the state of Washington doesn’t get to that list, which is what I would expect. It can be reached by bridge, the Interstate Bridge to be exact and it takes 130,000 vehicles daily. So as I see it, the numbers do not match the crime and the accusations. 

So what is this really about? In my version is is a distraction on how bad the finances of the United States really are. With 36 trillion in debt, the interest is about 1 trillion a year. We don’t get to much on that do we? So why slap the tariffs on the Commonwealth? The only think that kinda makes sense is that America is on the verge of defaulting its loans and it needs to prevent this, but that idea (the one I am having) is flawed. So is President Trump merely doing a distraction? The reason for this setting is that the press should have been all over this, but they are (by my reckoning) too busy for the grabbing of digital dollars. If the other nations economically collapse America stands a chance, but I agree the evidence to this is flimsy at best. But the other versions are even less likely, still they do have merit. And in all this, Russia gets no tariff? Not even pro forma? It makes no sense to me, but then I was never an economic.

On March 10th the US markets get to write off 4 trillion dollars, so when was that a good thing? As I personally (and possibly wrong) see it, when the markets lose value, the debt of America goes down as well (shake statement), or at least America gets to make deals, because when holding the debt is all that remains, the larger powerbrokers want to hold on to what they can. It gives America time to find a solution (not that there is one). As I personally see it, the real money is in Saudi Arabia and the UAE for staters, but they are the largest jewels in any crown and whilst America gets rid of any competitors through tariffs, their options open up. In the end America gets to compete with the Commonwealth, the EU and China. Three in stead of 30, it makes tactical sense. And the first issue is that all wars are set in deception following that premise the acts of President Trump make perfect sense. But is my vision on what happens right? That is what I wonder about, because I recognise that I might be wrong and the press is less help than usual.

That is merely my view on the matter and as such I stand behind PM Mark Carney and Canada, because Canada is a Commonwealth brother as are the other Commonwealth nations. So feel free to deny my vision, it is OK to oppose this or ignore this. But see what the evidence shows you and take it from there. That is all I can tell you, make up your own mind.

Have a great day, it’s almost Saturday for me (in about 40 minutes).

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March 14, 2025 · 05:19

All wars are founded on deception

That is a truth that is over 2500 years old. The Chinese gave us the rule, but we were only made aware of this about 600 years ago (right around the time the game Marco Polo became common knowledge). Still the people are unaware of sides of this truth because it interferes with the media collecting on their digital dollars. So there are sides that are not illuminated. 

I have a inkling of standing there, because my premise is set on the sides I have been illuminated on for a few years and it is my understanding that it takes sides on what I believe to be true. You see, one element is that most polarized believes are set around the belief that “President Trump is a moronic idiot” and I do not believe that is true. He is perhaps a bully, he is a megalomaniac but he isn’t as I personally believe a stupid person. You see, as I see it, the exploitative people in New York would have eaten him alive. He was there long enough. And yesterday NPR gave us “The U.S. buys electricity from Canada. Now it’s a focus of the trade war”, this was to be expected. Our brother Canada (I am Australian) takes any opportunity it can get. And over the last few days we were given “Canadian brewery selling pack of 1,461 beers to cope with Trump’s presidency”, a funny sidestep. CBC informed us that they are selling crates of beer (with 1461 cans) so that one crate will last any Canadian with one beer a day until Trump is out of office in 3.84237 years time. The beer is Moosehead and the marketing director Karen Grigg told us that they sold 10 of such crates in 24 hours. The first one in 10 minutes of the announcement. A clever ploy to sell 14.6 thousands cans within a day. I have no idea if the beer is any good, like most American beer some Australian beers are like making love in a canoe (they are fucking close to water). Thank you for that Monty Python ;-).

So as we continue we get the BBC giving us “Trump halts plan for 50% steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada” with the supporting text “Canada has called Trump’s attacks unjustified and announced retaliation, including new tariffs on C$30bn ($22bn; £16bn) of US products.

Ford had announced he would tax electricity exports to the US in an effort to get those tariffs removed. He had also previously said he would “not hesitate to shut off electricity completely” if the US “escalates”.” And at this point President Trump has done a 180 degree turn on his decisions twice. And ABC (Australia) give us ‘Trump announces 50pc tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum in trade war escalation’ with the supporting text “Trump announces 50pc tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum in trade war escalation. He says this is in retaliation for a Canadian province placing a surcharge on its electricity exports into three US states. Tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US are set to come into effect on Wednesday.” Some have the view that this is the economic downturn created to secure to annex Canada as the 51st state. That has the sound of likelihood, because the ‘easiest’ thing to do is to null the tariff the moment he gets Canada. The short sightedness of that is that Canada is part of a Commonwealth. What I don’t like is that (as far as I can tell) Australia and the United Kingdom haven’t outspokenly united behind Canada. Seemingly neither have New Zealand and India, so there is that. ABC reported ‘Anthony Albanese invokes ‘Team Australia’ in pitch to buy local after Trump tariffs’ with the supporting text “Anthony Albanese has suggested Australians should buy Australian goods instead of American ones, invoking “Team Australia” in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs. The PM yesterday accused Peter Dutton of taking the Trump administration’s side over Australia’s, after Mr Dutton said he was “hopeless” and that he could secure an exemption himself if elected.” Not one word of unity behind Canada. The setting becomes that the Commonwealth needs to unite. If I am correct that is essential and the UK needs to bo the same. The BBC reports ‘Starmer says ‘all options on table’ on US tariffs’ and here the subtext is different. “Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said the UK will “keep all options on the table” as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum take effect. The UK exports hundreds of millions of pounds worth of steel to the US every year, which will be subject to the 25% levy. The EU, facing the same tariffs, said on Wednesday it would impose counter-tariffs on €26bn (£22bn) of US goods, and Canada also responded with countermeasures, in an escalation of the wider trade war.” This makes me believe that there is more going on and the lack of Canadian support is disgusting. If there are so many billions on the table, the idea that the Commonwealth isn’t talking to China is frowning to say the least. There is almost 100 billion on the table from Canada, the UK and Australia. These three countries need to secure infrastructure and a lot more for a little over 136,000,000 people. So is this the way it will be? Insecurity and inaction whilst (until recent) an Ally is attacking the economy of these nations? 

As I personally see it America is beyond broke. They need Canada for resources, Electricity and water. They are running out of these matters and that is as I personally see the larger issue. And the media isn’t reporting on these parts for at least 5 years. You see one source gives us “The federal government currently has $36.22 trillion in federal debt” and another source gives us “As of February 2025, of the total public debt outstanding ($28.91 trillion)” these two messages are not three months apart, as such how can ANYONE make a somewhat clear oversight of more than 7 trillion ($7,000,000,000,000)? That is a lot more than several nations have as a national budget. But I digress. A debt of $36,220,000,000,000 has interest, Australia has currently a 4.1% interest setting. America will have less, but I reckon that 3% is an acceptable amount, this means that America needs to pay $1,448,800,000,000 in interest on an annual base that is crippling America. In 2023 they collected $2.18 trillion, that means that almost 50% of all collected tax goes to the payment of interest. That is almost 50% of all revenue collected. I warned of this well before I wrote ‘Is it that bad?’ On October 15th 2023 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/10/15/is-it-that-bad/). So for over 2 years the media was kept quiet by media stake holders, are you even troubled in the least over this?

When the media has to report all income from stakeholders the bough breaks (I assume), because the media doesn’t do this service for free and it is likely hidden in ad revenue piles. As such I believe my view to be a decent one and as I started this story, all wars are set to deception and America doesn’t like to be seen as weak, so they started a media tariff war. I am not dismissing the 51st state ploy and the silence from Australia and the United Kingdom give rise to that. But in all honesty, do you really want Australia and England to be your ally when that part is proven to be correct? As I see it the Commonwealth needs a stronger ally and that is where China comes in. As I see it America cannot be seen as an ally when it resorts to these tactics against an ally and in the second place there is a sneaky kind of joy when these tactics result in having their ‘arch-enemy’ China a few miles away for about 5,525 miles. The fun part is that America only needs to build a second Chinese wall a mere 42% of the first one. How much will that cost? And that also implies that three states will have to burn the woods they have left to keep warm, fortunately they are entering summer so they have a few months to build two nuclear reactors and that, oh wait a minute, that takes years. So no luck for America there either.

The tariff wars was as I personally see it the dumbest thing they could entertain, but according to the Beijing Daily, President Xi Jinping has been heard howling with laughter the last few days. Could there be correlation with the acts of President Trump? 

So tune in next week when you will hear Nurse Piggy say: “Kermit where is your credit card?” And the answering silence was deafening. Have a great day or as they say in China “祝你有美好的一天，傻兔子”, or as other say “Whatever makes you happy” (paraphrased)

Have a great day.

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March 7, 2025 · 02:10

True to the old word

The ‘old’ saying is “Where are idiots grouped”, the answer is “Usually between Canada and Mexico”, I don’t completely agree as politicians are for the most to some degree a global problem. But you get the gist of the matter. It gets to be funnier as we look at the numbers on Fentanyl smuggling where 86.4% of the convictions are US citizens. Take that and the anger from Canadian people (regarding the 51st state) and we have ourselves a clambake. And that is getting more traction now. The setting has gone viral as many places (I am reluctant to hide behind the operative word ‘all’) have removed America booze from the shopping racks (example: LCBO). For others (Australia) it could be seen as good news as Bundaberg Rum might grace the stalls of these shops, UK already had their gin setting, but that could grow a lot more now that brands like American Gin are removed (sorry Mr. Reynolds) as well, and the removal of several Vodka brands will be good news for Sweden. The branding marks will currently see a shift in consumer ‘appreciation’ as over $20,000,000,000 is removed from America’s branding. I reckon that soon others will see places like Coca Cola will soon also have an impact. Then there is tourism, that ship still under investigation might also see impacts. I think that the numbers for the tourist operators (like Disney, Warner Brothers and Universal) might see a bad summer coming. I don’t think that they have a large dip as they were seemingly over capacitated, but there will be an impact. As such the estimated impact from Canada on Fentanyl is getting a weird impact. According to some, the In the first 10 months of 2024, the Canadian border service reported seizing 10.8lb (4.9kg) of fentanyl entering from the US, while US Border Patrol intercepted 32.1lb (14.6kg) of fentanyl coming from Canada. And if the NPR is to be believed that joke has a nasty sting as in 2024, only about 43 pounds of fentanyl was seized at America’s northern border. That compares with roughly 21,100 pounds seized at the southern border. So the difference of this implies that the 43 pounds of substance caught on the Canadian side amounts to a mere 0.002 of the actual problem and that is now costing America an additional $20B plus change and commission. So how does that go over with Wall Street? So in a short moment, Alcohol, Tourism and retail is impacted in America. If we can believe Doug Ford (Premier of Ontario) has given the headline ‘Ontario premier Doug Ford cancels $100-million Starlink contract’, it becomes a comedy should Huawei fill that gap. So how is that Trump ego going at present? As Canadian tourists generated $20.5 billion in spending and supported 140,000 American jobs last year. They could see an optional 40% drop at present, I personally believe that this could be as much as 60% in an area where spend was 20% down from pre-Covid settings. And others are taking notice Especially the UK, Australia and New Zealand. They might not amount to much, but they do have an impact. I for one had dreamt (I have silly dreams) of seeing Universal Orlando once, but at present I will chose Abu Dhabi over USA. Warner Brothers would still see my money, but where in America my contribution would be close to 100%, In Abu Dhabi they merely fetch 30% of my money and the rest is all for Miral Experiences L.L.C. As such I become an asset feed to Julien Kauffmann. And consider I am merely one person, now consider that 40% of the commonwealth sees this the same way? How much damage did President Trump do to his own economy? If he was the King of Australia I would advice the board of Governors in Australia to muzzle him. This typically refers to the Reserve Bank Board, which oversees the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and is made up of the Governor (currently Michele Bullock), Deputy Governor, and other appointed members. So, what did Wall Street duo to reign in this level of idiocy? (Just to coin a phrase). 

So, as we realize that over the course of Rome’s long history, taxation was frequently a source of outrage and grief. Indeed there is a basic lesson to be learned from Roman history, namely that people did not like paying taxes they found unjust. And this setting comes from 357AD. As such it is over 1700 years old. Even Julius Caesar, according to the historian Ammianus Marcellinus “declared that he would rather lose his life than allow it to be done. For he knew that the incurable wounds of such arrangements, or rather derangements had often driven provinces to extreme poverty.” So President Trump (and his advisors) had examples coming from history and now the stone is set and Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs of 10-15%, starting 10 February, on various US imports, including coal, crude oil and large cars. (Source: BBC) and that has larger repercussions. Huawei is sensing blood in the water and at present they are ‘arming’ their devices with Linux (I reckon for Europe and other places). People might not ‘go’ for HarmonyOS at present but they now have a foot in the door and with a linux setting they could get into the Commonwealth to a larger degree (Canada included) as America now has to prove that there is an actual danger (which they never did). And only yesterday ‘Huawei Unveils Latest Suite of Intelligent Campus Solutions to Accelerate Intelligent Campus 2.0 Development’ that is the business opening to more. By providing high-quality 10 Gbps network experiences, it accelerates the digital transformation of enterprises across various sectors. No American solution got this close before (only on leaflets as far as I could tell). So whilst Huawei was stated to look out for what was coming, they opened the door to a juicy steak for all the greed hungry entrepreneurs sailing the global waters and they will get their grain. With ‘Intelligent Stadium Solution: Redefining Sports Venues’ they stand to win the hearts over in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, including people in Glasgow (2026), 2027 Cricket World Cup (South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Namibia),  French Alps (2030), 2031 Cricket World Cup (India and Bangladesh) and Brisbane (2032). So when you add that up, how much of the world stage will Huawei capture? And China will be there to laugh out loud, especially as America NEVER showed any evidence and that has been voiced by Germany more than once. 

So how stupid was starting a trade war founded on tariffs and based on a ludicrous setting whilst Canada was a mere 0.002 of the actual problem? Oh, for desert we get the quote we were fed less than 10 minutes ago (source: USA Today) ‘Canadian province leader threatens to cut off energy to 3 US states, imposes 25% surcharge’ and I suggest that the MAGA fans in Michigan, Minnesota, and New York find a good hiding spot, because when that energy block comes through a lot of people will curse the day President Trump was reelected for some time. And then there is the energy coming at +25%, so how much energy does New York need?

Have a great day and happy trails to Bundaberg Rum as they now have an open door to an optional 40 million additional consumers.

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March 1, 2025 · 05:38

What was that about London Town?

There is a setting that we see and for some reason the media is ‘unable’ to highlight. It reminded me of a setting we saw in Love Actually, the masterpiece by Richard Curtis which included Keira Knightly as the newly created bride, Denise Richards as the pretty one of the family, Claudia Schiffer as the new girlfriend of Liam Neeson. Yet they are not the setting. It is the interaction of Hugh Grant as the Prime Minister and Billy Bob Thornton as the US president. You see, that part reflects on now when we hear Hugh Grant (as Prime Minister of the UK) say “A friend who bullies us is no longer a friend. And since bullies only respond to strength, from now onward I will be prepared to be much stronger.” Words that have been unlikely to come from Keir Starmer. On the side of President Trump it was a good tactic. Divide and conquer. An age old tradition to take the UK out of the race to support Canada. That is my first concern. Our Commonwealth brother is in a tough spot and they need our help. I for one was all about setting the stage of the Commonwealth and it has merit. If Whatever is exported to the USA, should now (for as much as possible) set among us, the Commonwealth nations. Moreover, the tariffs need to include all exported energy to America. The said 25%, fine, Canada can do that too. But the larger requirements are to set exports from America to Commonwealth and Europe. The first setting is oil, Crude Petroleum ($107B), Petroleum Gas ($15.7B) and Refined Petroleum ($15.1B). Then we get to deal with the rest. And as far as I can see, either Australia and New Zealand aren’t on their list, or their parts are too small. So lets ramp up what these two nations can deal with. The benefit there is that Vancouver will get a boost of income through shipping and optionally jobs too. After that there is the option how much can we shift towards Europe, as well as how much more can Canada sell to the United Kingdom. It only takes care of 40% of the current needs, but with America losing the 40% of that, especially oil, America has created their own problem. As far as I am concerned we all need to take America off the shopping lists. Australia has its own settings. Two weeks ago we saw “It came after comments on Tuesday from the US president that there would be no exceptions or exemptions on the tariffs, which will start on 12 March unless Anthony Albanese can secure an exemption.” So was there an exemption? And March 12th is less than two weeks away. For Australia the ‘loss’ is a ‘mere’ 51 billion all whilst we import from America $34.6 billion in goods and services. So what happens if we decide to drop the bigger part of $34 billion and get that from Canada and India? I don’t know if it completely balances its out, but two nations dampening America for half a trillion dollars will have an effect. As such we can state that ‘America first’ could become an essential ‘America first to the sewer’. I like it when life balances the bully into desperation. I don’t know that much about New Zealand but that has its own margins, and when that falls down for America as well, and their goods find another destination, we will have been much stronger against the so called ‘bully’.

In the other side there is nothing against America phrasing ‘America first’ it is a nationalistic setting I never opposed it. Not for Denmark, not for Germany, not for France of any other nation. National pride is essential for any nation. But the larger issue isn’t that America has a Fentanyl problem. It is related to the quote “Since 2013, the illegally manufactured fentanyl problem in the United States has become more deadly and more diverse.” The other side is that federal data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show Canada plays almost no role in the smuggling of fentanyl or other deadly street drugs into the U.S. Despite that fact, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised in December to step up efforts to secure the northern border. (Source: NPR) so how is “Canada plays almost no role” the setting for the tariffs? It does not. As I personally see it America is now so broke that they have to cut every corner and alleviate every spending that they can dismiss. That is the setting I see and I have been watching this for some years. It might help, but at the most a few months and as we cull the needy Americans from resources they need, that setting will expedite matters against President Trump. And we have a duty to our Commonwealth brothers and now we must unite, because when the Wall Street boat sinks, we need to be ready for what comes next. If you want to guess what comes next. Wait until you see, social funding goes to zero. Veterans, healthcare, pensions, unemployment it all falls down. I reckon that this mess will be ten times worse than the Great Depression, which was a global economic crisis that began in 1929 and lasted until the 1930s. It was caused by the Wall Street stock market crash in the United States. And it will do so again, but this time the stakes are higher. Europe and Japan are directly impacted this time too and what comes next will fuel movies for a decade or two. Perhaps Richard Curtis will create his next gem called ‘Funds Actually’ and its release will be under 5 years after this point is reached. Perhaps a more international cast like the stock broker in Tokyo (played by Hiroyuki Sanada) who sees his wealth and family life dissolve as he trusted the words of Wall Street. And for rockers, the role of Donald Trump played by Alec Baldwin, dropping in on 10 Downing Street asking “Can I have some more please?” I actually doubt that President Trump ever used the phrase ‘please’ but it makes for a better Oliver Twist reference. 

When you see the elements stack up, I see that this is the most prevalent setting and when the numbers are counted, can anyone give rise to the Fox statement “The massive GOP bill would also direct $4 trillion toward raising the debt limit” I think America is about to surpass its debt limit with exceeding arrogance and that is never good, because like gamblers going all in again and again disregarding the issue in front of them just as long as they get one win, that setting is one of the most dangerous. Not only because the current administration is ignorant of the setting of now, but they let the bet it hoping they get some too. When you take approach to the budgets, how does this ever help anyone?

Have a lovely weekend. 

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February 5, 2025 · 13:25

News to me

That happens. I do not know everything and it is not my business to know everything. I learned that early in life, before I know thought I knew everything, I learned as I took the oath of a radio operator, that there is a price for knowing too I much and as such I tried to ‘calm’ the need to know too much. When it is in my business to know, I try to know the materials pretty thoroughly. I tech support there was one program I had to know, but I had to know it on dozens of systems and  for the most I knew the goods. This is not some spreadsheet or a presentation program and you know the in’s and outs of the program (not dissing these software solutions) but in one program know the issues on IBM MVS, DEC digital VMS, AS/400, Sun systems, Unit systems, Windows Systems and a whole lot more, and every mainframe had its own coordinators handbook. For the most it was OK. The dealers could help its own customers but when working deeper they came with questions on installation, data cleaning, syntaxes of the system and of course the limitations that existed per system. In an age where there was no system (it was promised, but was always a month away) I kept my head above water. So what does this have to do with the current issue?

It was given to me in the Conversation (at https://theconversation.com/trumps-trade-war-is-forcing-canada-to-revive-a-decades-old-plan-to-reduce-u-s-dependence-248433) where we get ‘Trump’s trade war is forcing Canada to revive a decades-old plan to reduce U.S. dependence’ it is here that we are given “After threatening Canada and Mexico with illegal tariffs, and Canada with annexation, United States President Donald Trump has agreed to hold off on imposing tariffs on Canada for at least 30 days. This decision came after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with Trump and committed to strengthening border security” with the added “Early responses seem to have coalesced around two policies: for Canada to trade less with the U.S. and more with other countries and to strengthen the internal Canadian economy.” This implies that the free trade agreements were signed up with that in mind and to ‘diverge’ Canada to go that way. It seems weird that the ‘councilors’ of this US administration did not hammer on this, or seemingly did not hammer this. You see, as I see it President trump shot himself in the foot here. And then watered all over himself. Two distinct settings that could have been avoided. Now America faces tariffs themselves and come to boot Allies of Canada are signing up deals on all markets which will cost America dearly. It also means that the Commonwealth will become stronger as one together. I don’t know (at present) where India stands, but in retail and pharmaceutical solutions there is every chance that Canada will seek solutions in that field. So as we see “But it will impose significant costs on Canadians and require a fundamental readjustment in how we think about our economy and society.” This might be fair, but that all depends on what India could help save Canada costs, if that is achieved (though pharmaceuticals mainly) the net savings for Canada are a lot greater then expected. There will be cost in the beginning yet in the end it might work out cheaper (not easier) for Canada.

Then we are given “In 1972, then-Secretary of State for External Affairs Mitchell Sharp wrote a paper called “Canada-US Relations: Options for the Future.” At the time, international politics were in a moment of transition, and the U.S. was recalibrating its understanding of its national interest.” It is here we are given (at https://gac.canadiana.ca/view/ooe.b1557737E_001/329) a lot more then we bargained for. It is a 332 page paper, as such the 46MB file is not here, but in its original location. As such I would surmise that American administrations forgot about ‘the U.S. was recalibrating its understanding of its national interest’ it seemingly forgot about this. I prefer to think that the setting of pending bankruptcy is making them knee jerk themselves into the next month and the next and the next. Yet there is a rather nasty hindsight to this (not for me). There is a rather urgent need to reassess criminal behavior. So the settings we see in London and other cities (like Los Angeles) imply that a more Venezuelan setting will come to America (thanks to Steve Inman) his comments are setting a new side to the debate. There is no doubt that these ‘free $1000 thefts’ will result in a need to shoot to kill escalation and for the most no one has a problem with that. This escalation is right on the horizon now. The $1000 misdemeanor setting will  (according to some) take care of the freeloaders and especially shopkeepers are fine with that. So as America does away with its freeloaders we still have an issue in Canada and for the most part I hesitate to consider what made America consider its tariff setting, especially as Canada was considering the paper in 1972, it might have been long, but not too long and in light of current trends this setting was on the horizon as were other options and now that America is feeling its first brunt with BRICS, there was a cautious tale on the horizon. And now that the US administration is setting up a ‘Sovereign Wealth Fund’ with the underlying ““We have tremendous potential,” Trump said while signing the order from the Oval Office on Monday. “I think in a short period of time, we’d have one of the biggest funds.”” (Source: The Guardian) I personally disagree. They HAD tremendous potential and now that they started the tariff wars (it doesn’t matter if it is on hold for 30 days). Canada is now looking at setting additional channels with the Commonwealth, whilst diminishing trade and we now see that there is a 1972 paper who did the hard stuff. The question is how much of that is still valid. I actually don’t know that, but I left the link for your reference. Then there is the options that America left on the floor and now China has an inner track to set a lot more towards the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. I mentioned it more then once in the last two years. As America stifled the sale of their F35, China has been active on at least two weapons trade shows to give rise to the Chengdu J-20 from the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group. Did you think that China left a call for a few dozen billion unanswered? At $110,000,000 that implies at least 3 squadrons and guess what, they will not be compatible with whatever Northrop Grumman or Raytheon has to offer. As such there could be a bigger shift in that setting. And as soon as China ‘proves’ that the Chengdu J-20 is at least equal or even superior to the F35, America loses that game too. You see, China only have to prove it is at least equal, a much lower threshold. Add that to the Canadian setting and as Canada can prove goods to the UAE and Saudi Arabia (optionally Egypt and Bangladesh) that are a few more markets where Canada will get slices of pizza that were meant for America. All that for a tariff? So how much more does America have to lose to show its ‘Sovereign Wealth Fund’ to be close to irrelevant. Yes, others will profit too. Yet Canada never wanted this setting in the first place and that is where short term considerations make some lose ‘their’ war. And just for consideration. Fentanyl is not new. As given by some “Fentanyl was synthesized in 1960 as an intravenous anesthetic and went on the market in the U.S. in 1968. Transdermal fentanyl was developed in the 1980s and was subsequently used for pain management in cancer patients” it was invented by the Belgiums and it has been on the market over half a century. So it is not new, the (speculated) non-actions by America made it an easy drug to score big on. In addition, it is a pharmaceutical  with a boxed warning. So why is it not a controlled substance set to a narcotic? Lets consider that narcotics were ‘outlawed’ in 1914 and went to the American market in 1968. So why was it even allowed? And even as we see in the Conversation where we are given “For the Third Option to be viable today, Canadians must embrace an independent Canadian identity based on respect for democracy, pluralism, the rule of law and human rights. It likely requires consensus that U.S. authoritarianism is wholly unacceptable to Canada.” And this third option point is now reached and so far (as is visible) nearly all the Commonwealth nations. As I see the Australian parties weaseling (my personal assessment) as “Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell is seeking talks with America” (source: News) where we see no clear message to Canada in support as a Commonwealth nation (like weasels as I personally see it). At this setting Scotland shows itself as a much more honorable Commonwealth nation, but the larger issue will be India, as that is where the massive parts of retail goes. I get that India is playing a sensitive game but something must give at some point, Canada needs us now. From a personal note, Canada was there for the Netherlands in WW2. As Dutch born I will stand with Canada on this.

Yet the larger setting is missed. In the end Canada is not the larger play. It will be China and what it can grab from America on the long term from them involving Saudi Arabia, the UAE and optionally Egypt as well.

So have a loverly day and if you are in America try drinking Tim Hortons for a change. It might wake you up faster, stronger and better.

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February 1, 2025 · 19:19

War of trades

That is what we are facing now (not to be confused with World of Warcraft). Canada is now under the yoke of President Trump and we (all Commonwealth nations) have to unite. It is nice to call that president loopy or crazy, but the hardship is not like that. As I personally see it, it is the first step of a nations that has no options against calling themself broke and the media is as I see it, too stupid to call it out (too used to be the bitch of America is more like it). So what can we do?

First things first. “In 2022, Australia imported $6.45 billion in crude petroleum” part of that sum came from the United States, I cannot tell what part. As such we stop that and we get it from Canada. That takes away the tariff from Canada on that. We see that America went ‘soft’ on that according to the news. Why? They need to, they need oil. Oil they can sell at additional coins. So that stops. As such “The UK imported around 42 million metric tons of crude oil and natural gas liquids in 2023” this was also in part from the United States, so they get it from Canada as well. That implies that Canada is not suffering tariffs on oil. See, that took little time. We set the same to India who exports oil to the United States. Set that to Europe (to a much larger degree) and all its Commonwealth allies and America suddenly gets a much larger problem. Well they can import it from Venezuela and Russia I reckon. So, how is that going now President Trump?

Then we get a lot more. For our local needs Australia could become the location for Rum (Bundaberg) and it could be exported to Canada, there goes the American Rum export to Canada. The fun part is that Canada could get its import from Australia and the United Kingdom as well and soon Budweiser is losing its export locations. In other news, Labatt Brewing Company and Molson Coors Canada Inc. would now be the locations of Australian beets. As that setting changes America now has a problem they themselves created. And with the quality of water in America, these brands end up having an honest problem selling their beer anywhere. 

These are of course the some settings. What happens when they cannot get nursing staff, because Canada sets the horn of plenty towards the Commonwealth countries and we cannot send them to America as the Commonwealth have had our fill with their tariffs? What happens when we merely set out to ourselves? You think nurses are easy to come by? What happens when a chunk of IT staff in Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle and IBM gets called back to Commonwealth nations? How will you solve the knowledge base then? These places also exist in Canada, Australia and New Zealand. As such there will be a redesign of staff pressures. And that will (accidentally) coincide with staff requirements in the Middle East (UAE and Saudi Arabia) two places the US can not deliver to as they then sorely lack the staff on such levels. What a tangled web they weaved.

Meat from US in Canada will be replaced to meat from New Zealand, UK, Australia and Mexico (they got the tariff book as well), that implies more from other nations and none from America. Was that what they had figured on? So as American revenue declines and meat will required a downgrade as they suffer exports. So, USMEF has 19 offices and regional representatives in key markets around the world. And soon that will get a massive drop on revenue. Al because they wanted to test their bankruptcy measures on other fields like tariffs. So how much more needs to happen? Meat, Booze, oil and staffing. All going other ways soon enough. How will that leave the America economy? And I reckon Wood does not need to come from America, it does now, we can import from Canada too, as such Canada will need less tariffs to worry about. So who chained the links together? What started as as separate issues now becomes a formidable chain that whacks America over the head as we solve matters internally and for a few issues we could partner with Mexico. All separate issues that were ignored as they were to some too small to consider, but this chain represents billions in goods and millions if trade shipping now about to leave America hands.

Trade wars have a nasty habit of biting bak when the numbers are not in your favor. Canada does not stand alone, the Commonwealth can support it as it should. I do fear for weak links (like Keir Starmer and Anthony Albanese) as they want to appease America. Those days are over and now America has another issue coming its way. It was ‘protected’ by an ocean from China, but in this setting China would get invitations as Australia and Canada would entertain trade talks with China. So how is America sitting now? Oh, and in that setting there is a new setting to Five Eyes, 4 of its members have had enough of President Trump and its loopy vision (possible he needs glasses). And in one instance the CIA loses whatever handle it had on international businesses. Yes, that was a real bright idea. We might lose Palantir as a partner (which is fair enough) yet if you think that China doesn’t have options there, you would be really delusional in your thinking. I reckon that these tariff wars were the Christmas present for China almost a year early. 

All that coming now?
And I saw part of this in under an hour. So how did this escape the American views? A tariff war was the worst setting they could enable. So why did this president not get the Intelligence he needed? 

I reckon there is a lot more and we need to stand firm with our brother Canada. We are the Commonwealth, not a play-toy (or the bitch) of America. We have a population exceeding billions, we eat, we drink and we are merry (at times loopy too). And 2.5 billion represents massive amounts of power, more than the 350 million in America can bring so when that retail power falls away a lot more American businesses will suffer in the process.

Just a little lesson for the reader and consider who you wake up. America is about to learn that the hard way and China likes the setting it is about to exposed to. An Ally that does this to Canada is no ally at all and there are massive consequences with ringing the tariff bell.

Have a great day.

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December 14, 2024 · 14:10

Calling a bluff

That happens, some people bluff and others tend to call the bluff. That is the setting that president elect Trump called on himself. We all heard how the upcoming Trump administration called the setting that they opened. They threatened the Canadian Trudeau administration on tariffs when “Trump threatened in a social media post to apply devastating levies of 25% on all goods and services from both Mexico and Canada, vowing to keep them in place until “such time as drugs, in particular fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country!”” As I see it, a larger setting that the US called upon itself. The war on drugs has been going on since June 17, 1971, during which President Richard Nixon declared drug abuse “public enemy number one”. I get that, drugs are the filth of any civilisation. Perhaps America could have changed tactics decades ago, when it was set to ‘the black population’, being white an wealthy enabled cocaine habits, all whilst crack users got the bulk of the heavy punishment. I cannot voice any opinion because it is too far from my bed. Yet the media used that setting to give us “New Jack City” and “Boys N the Hood” with an entertaining “Cocaine bear” for good measure. I reckon that “Traffic” is one of the best views on the subject (there are many I never saw).

So after half a century of failure the President elect Trump now blame the neighbouring countries. Well two can play at that. In the first I suggest any American arrested on drug charges (outside of USA) get the death penalty. No options, no trials, just point and click the gun. In the second we consider the stage that Ontario’s premier, Doug Ford is suggesting (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/12/canada-ontario-premier-trump-tariffs). With ‘Ontario leader threatens to halt energy exports to US if Trump imposes tariffs’. This is actually not a bad move (better than my idea). At present we have the idea that Canada’s revenue from electricity exports to the United States hit a record high of C$ 5.8bn. Quebec is the largest exporter, with Ontario following second at 13.9m megawatt-hours of power sent south. Of course the setback is that Ontario loses that near essential revenue. But consider that America loses 13.9m megawatt-hours of power which adds to the hardship America has at present and the next 2 quarters that hardship could be seen as close to debilitating. 

So should the Trump administration push the tariff bluff, the payback that follows is nothing short of a banger of a payback. I see all these bad press moments of Doug Ford, I cannot answer whether they are valid, but I reckon this one is on point and only 6 hours ago we were also given ‘Ontario premier suggests stopping US liquor imports over Trump tariff threat’ (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/13/ontario-trump-tariff-liquor) not a big thing for the non alcoholics and lets face it, Ryan Reynolds gives us Gin (perhaps soon Canadian Gin too), Dan Ackroyd (part Canadian) gives us Crystal Head Vodka and Canada also has its Whiskey types. As such, it will hurt America a lot more than it will Canada. 

There are other drinks that come from outside of the USA. There is Jenever (Dutch Gin, Netherlands), Gin (UK), Aquavit and Absolute Vodka (Sweden) not to mention the dozen of wines from the French speaking regions (like France). Oh, and Raki and Ouzo are Greek. As such plenty of non-American options. As I personally see it, the response to the Trump bluff will be countered in a few ways and it is my belief that the Trump Administration will be forced to do a 180 degree on the spot, that is if they would like to keep their other ventures running somewhat smooth. 

I personally think that Doug Ford called an upcoming bluff in several ways and all are promising answers to the situation that Canada is in no way to blame for. So what do they want? A 8,891 km wall? Who pays for that? As I see it, the war was essential for a long time, but as the ‘law’ unfairly differentiate the rich and the pour on drugs, this was never going in any direction fast. 

It seemed like such an easy solution but that was never go down well, because the complexities that American law allowed for made it way too complex (as I personally see it).

Have a great weekend, Toronto joins un on this Saturday in 2 hours.

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