Category Archives: Politics

June 20, 2023 · 00:01

He said what?

The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-65920024) gives us ‘Blinken and Xi had ‘robust conversation’ in Beijing’ and I had to take a look, if not only to see what they mean with ‘robust conversation’, that is an expression that could go in any direction and not all of them good. The BBC hands us:

“He says he has been seeking to “disabuse” China of the notion the US is “seeking to economically contain them””, sorry this started a 5 minute intermezzo to get a hold of all the laughter I have. The US has been seeking to contain China since Huawei left Nokia and all others behind them in the 5G field, it is still going on, all whilst we have never ever been given CLEAR evidence that Huawei was doing anything negative. In that same timeline we have an Airman handing out classified information, a former president has more classified materials in his toilet than the CIA has in its archive and we have several other issues. That is before we look at Cisco and its issues (which was not intentional, I know). 

And even as several statements came from Strasbourg, the manner of speaking implies a clear American hand on the shoulder of the speaker. 

Then we get “Blinken reiterates that the US does not support Taiwan’s independence – stating it does not wish to change the status quo”,which is a harder issue. You see ‘The first agreement under the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade was signed on June 1, 2023.’ Might be seen as a declaration towards support for its independence. And that is debatable, I get that. It seems to me that America hopes it will go good, but at the same time it is afraid to anger China too much, so I can see how this plays and this is NOT against America. It is to acknowledge that some diplomatic strains are strained as far as they can get. 

Then it is time for “Blinken says some parts of the talks were “constructive”, but adds there is “work to do” in other areas”, OK a diplomatic answer if ever there was one. But in there are missing parts and there is every chance that they are not for our eyes yet. The ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia are worrying America. The new petroleum refinery that they are building in China must be a cause for concern. You see, the refinery is large enough to hand a lot more oil to China and that is where it is most likely to go, a setting America does not find comforting. They are already losing out to a million barrels a day, but with that new refinery that reduction COULD (could being the operative word) be reduced three times over to minus 3 million barrels a day. This could collapse the American economy and create a third world nation called The United Stages of Anything. For Taiwan it is not such a good stage. I reckon that China has been dipping its toe in the water to see how America would react when Taiwan is added back to China and charges Taiwan for overdue book fees and that invoice is likely to be stellar. Now, this is not a given, but that is what I would have done (if I was Chinese). In all likelihood as the EU and the US are uniting with Ukraine against Russia, China sees an opportunity because America is too broke to stop anything and that leaves Taiwan separated, segregated and all alone. A setting China would like at present and with three optional supports for Taiwan too poor to do anything (US, EU and Japan) Taiwan might not have too many options left. I reckon that a similar conversation with Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud took place almost a week ago. I reckon that at present China has all the answers it needs, but that is pure conjecture from my side. 

So as I see it, I wonder just how robust that conversation was, rejections by China does not make the conversation less robust, but that is about the only classification that conversation might have had overall. Am I wrong? Optionally yes, but the larger stage is catering to China, and with the ties with Saudi Arabia now stronger then anything, all whilst the ties with America are more and more dissolving leaves China in a much stronger position and as Saudi Arabia grows, so will the options for Huawei. It will not take long for the larger contracts with Egypt and Syria to start and when that happens, we get a triangle that covers part of Africa, towards Turkey all the way to India. It will not be overnight, but with the power core in Riyadh that setting would become one hell of a central chain for Huawei. And it is not a new setting, I saw this evolution come a little over three years ago. And with that infrastructure NEOM is not merely a small city, it will be a center piece of Saudi Arabia, uniting Africa to Saudi interests and they will all have that new Saudi news channel. It was a game well played and China is adhering to this not merely because it takes the wind out of the sails of America, it will diminish Europe in similar ways. Asia Times gave us in April ‘Huawei eyes Saudi Arabia as its regional hub’, I think it is only the beginning and it is a much larger partnership with China, who will have access to this and the Silk Road, which was never a secret. As such I wonder what expression they would replace ‘robust conversation’ with and very time that expression gets handed to us by the media, ask yourself. What did they mean with that? 

Another day, another step closer to next Friday.

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June 19, 2023 · 01:23

Simple clarity

That should happen, but not always. If the spectator is to be believed, clarity is not on anyones mind. So lets take a look. The article (at https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-saudi-arabia-bought-the-world/) gives us ‘How Saudi Arabia bought the world’, which is in part not false, but this is how the Americans wanted it. It was all about values and commodities and the more the better, that is until they went broke. Now it is all about human values, an option they never considered when they handed the reigns to Wall Street. Now America according to sources “The Treasury Department paid a record $213 billion in interest payments on the national debt in the last quarter of 2022, up $63 billion from the same period a year earlier.” $213 billion a quarter, implying that they are now paying $855 billion a year, that is the price of uncontrolled debt. I gave warning over the last several years, yet everyone was calling me crazy, stupid and a whole range of names. Well now the opposite is coming true. Others are now in charge. First Anthony Blinken (aka Blinky Tony) went to Saudi Arabia, now he is trying to convince China on miscommunications. A good trick if he pulls it off, especially after all the anti-China rhetoric. But this is about the Spectator, who gave us the cool image below.

There we see “Sarah Leah Whitson, of Democracy for the Arab World Now, the organisation founded by Khashoggi, told me the deal makes no sense in purely economic terms. ‘It’s really important to know how much of a premium the Saudis have paid,’ she says. ‘This is a political move.’ In fact, the FT estimates the Saudis will pump $3 billion into their new purchase. That translates into astonishing rewards for individual players. Some already on the Saudi payroll are reportedly getting $200 million a year.” It actually makes sense. You see people love sports and Saudi Arabia has seen what the eyes on Dubai can achieve and now there is a start to set the eyes on Riyadh. Sports are a first. The Jetset sports like F1 and Golf are a start and more is coming. The people want their games, their sports and if you try to count on the amount of video’s on YouTube and TikTok that are about Dubai and the Dubai Mall, the number goes into the millions and they nearly all have counts that are in the triple digits or close to that. That is visibility. With the projects that are coming over the next 5-7 years these numbers are adding up. Saudi Arabia, like China have been playing the long game and now they are the winning side of visibility. It all adds up further when the KSA launches their English version of Al Jazeera, then the numbers start racking up fast. That realisation was why I tried to sell my IP to Saudi Arabia and Kingdom Holding. It is now an IP that is approaching $35 billion in value. There was a reason that I never wanted Microsoft near it, they only screw things up and the value merely goes down. I would if all goes well end up with 5% of that, more than the accumulated wealth of all my ancestors combined. Yet, this is about Saudi Arabia and it matters, you see next we get “Greg Norman, the former champion who runs LIV, has already ‘moved forward’. Asked last year about Khashoggi’s murder, the body dismembered with a bonesaw, he said: ‘Look, we’ve all made mistakes…’” this is why America is losing all options. What evidence is there? The bone-saw bit and all the other bits. The media was in a frenzy pushing speculations, but in the end there is no evidence, there is no evidence of ANY direct involvement by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. That UN essay (aka the joke of the century) was no help either, if nothing else, it merely showed how useless the UN has become. If there was evidence fine.  Yet there was none and when you consider that part. Is it any surprise that Saudi Arabia has had enough of America and the west? 

Then we get “All of this has emboldened MBS, who has been steadily creeping back into international favour since Khashoggi’s murder.” Is it because there was no murder? Was it because there was no evidence? Was it because internationally the people in charge are figuring out that siding with America is starting to be a rather large loss? In this America did this to themselves, they invented “Money talks, bullshit walks” and business America embraced that expression as gospel, the problem is that when you are broke, when you rush from debt ceiling to debt ceiling you have nothing left and when the bulk of your budget goes to the interest, you have little less to buy. It is a simple equation, and an abacus can give you that result it will not be a pretty result, but a result none the less.

Then we get to hedge funds, real estate (London) and several other places. These people go to Saudi Arabia, because Saudi Arabia is one of the few places that has the money. If the ROI (Return on Investment) is good, they are likely to take the offer. It used to be America, but you know where they are at and Japan is almost there too. Consider the wealthiest nation in Europe (Monaco) How many projects did Monaco fund in Europe? Look at that list and see where their money is going, when you figure it out you will see why Saudi Arabia is seemingly buying the world. The world is a commodity and no one else is able or willing to buy it. So hard times are ahead (especially for America and Japan) and we are all falling in the middle. It is why I selected Saudi Arabia, Kingdom Holdings and Tencent Technologies for my IP. I go where the money is and the few players that had the money in the west decided to leave billions on the floor. I don’t have that kind of time for them to wise up and consider what they were missing. It is their choice t rely on wannabe executives, it is their loss. To be honest I never expected my IP to get that high this soon, but the inclusion setting I wrote about a week ago (0.0144%) made it a lot more valuable. And that is not even close to the end. All the settings that came secondary will now have primary impact on others too, merely icing on a yummy cake. Yet in the overall setting where we see the Spectator and the other media copying and paraphrasing that part there is a nasty underside. When the Chinese-Saudi link gets firm, when silk road evolves into a next stage and when the governmental coffers in Europe and the US dry up, what will you be left with? Because that is the moment that pensions fall to zero and that, in a greying population is the nightmare scenario that is now a mere 5-10 years away. I tried to send the warnings, but everyone was so sure that this would never happen. So how many debt ceiling raises will go through next? When sports fall away, as such when advertisers go elsewhere (Google is already setting up that side road in Saudi Arabia this year) when marketing options fall flat and result is the only currency that is allowed. How many corporations will remain? How many jobs will remain? Soon it will be about skills that are bankable, billable hours and it will go to every layer of business. And that is the sad part, we enabled that road all by ourselves. There was never any other outcome there. 

So cheer up, it is about to be Monday, your favourite day of the week is now a week away. 

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June 17, 2023 · 19:51

And Canada is the first to do so

Well, that might be the case. It is CBC that gives us (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/fox-news-crtc-ban-canada-1.6875894) ’LGBTQ rights group argues Fox News shouldn’t air in Canada’, to be honest, not the worst step to take. It is the funny response by Fox Channel “Fox’s argument that the application to remove its news network from Canadian cable TV packages is “moot” in the wake of prime-time host Tucker Carlson’s ousting in late April.” Are you effing kidding me? Egale Canada wrote an open letter to the regulator in early April, asking it to consult the public on the removal of Fox News from the list of non-Canadian programming authorised for distribution in Canada. And when there is a larger stage with a lot more channels than there are space for, the BS that Fox News gives us should have no place in any Democratic nation. That news was reenforced when we were given (see below)

Even as ABC gives us that “A longtime producer for Tucker Carlson is out of a job after being deemed responsible for the onscreen message this week that referred to President Joe Biden as a “wannabe dictator.”” It should not matter. These levels of unacceptable airing of thoughts gives rise to the thought that whatever Fox airs is no longer acceptable for human digestion. The idea to openly call any clear Democratic person as a ‘Wannabe Dictator’ is beyond humour, at least what the average man calls acceptable.

There will be a need soon to sanitise the airwaves of those airing the need of populist voices, the fact that Canada dropped nine channels implies that Canada and other nations are depreciating the value of media people (I am avoiding the term journalists). A massive change is required and the ousting of Fox Channel might give rise to these people bettering themselves instead of copying the wrong people. In addition, their way of pushing Republican voices is not out of law, but the way this is done. The Financial Times (at https://www.ft.com/content/78826749-892b-42b6-9053-ef613016ae93) gave us in April ‘Fox News and the marketing of lies’, there we see “Donald Trump and his conservative backers have done more than anyone to popularise the term “fake news”, rebuffing criticism of him by opponents and “mainstream” media as deliberate falsehood.” In addition the fact that Fox settled the Dominion case for well over a billion does not help. There is a massive flaw at Fox and its board of directors hiding behind ‘freedom of speech’ and ‘entertainment’ is not the way to go and as such I reckon that Egale Canada might have a case. I enjoyed Fox News years ago, but they set a tone that I found beyond offensive and the departure of people like Bill O’Reilly is setting a different tone. The Financial Times also gave us “It is regrettable that the settlement spared Fox News executives and presenters, and the Fox Corporation chair Rupert Murdoch, from testifying in weeks of hearings that would have shone more light on to the affair.” It shines the light on just how wrong Fox News has become. I would also add to the argue that someone naming its channel ‘News’ has no business reporting it as entertainment, some issues are just too serious at present. I would add to that that there is no visible vetting of that news channel and whilst that might be acceptable in the US, I think that a larger case for the Commonwealth nations could be made to scrap them. And face it, if this is about a republican side, they can stick that to the US and keep it there (and there alone).

I reckon that the moment a second nation adds to Canada and Egale Canada panic gets a grip on its board of directors and Rupert Murdoch. No matter how that evolves, the first pebble is cast and even as the outcome is not certain, there is a larger stage where the people should consider how long they are willing to openly deceive themselves. We don’t mind getting lied to at times, but 24:7 by a news channel? Who is willing to sign up for that? 

As such I feel that not only does have Egale Canada a case, they might end up setting a larger wave among nations that have had enough of this kind of ‘presentation’ of fake news. 

Enjoy the weekend.

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June 7, 2023 · 20:40

The boom what?

Yes, a few hours ago, the AL-Monitor gave me the news (and anyone else who reads it) that ‘Canada’s arms exports boom to Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar’ (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/canadas-arms-exports-boom-saudi-arabia-israel-qatar) now you think this is great news (as in size of the news), but you would be wrong. Canada, the other commonwealth nations as well as America are waking up to the coffee (optionally served by Tim Horton himself). When we read “most of the shipments coming from a $15 billion contract reached in 2014 but only approved for export by Canada’s current government” and you consider ‘Is it too little, too late?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/02/is-it-too-little-too-late/), which I wrote on June 2nd and you take the scale of the setting, you will see just how desperate the US is at present. Is it that Saudi Arabia is siding with BRICS? Is it because Saudi Arabia decided to cut production by a million barrels per day? Your guess is as good as mine, yet this is the setting and the Canadian BS line that it only got approved by the current government does not compute with me. This is the result of bad management on too many levels of US administration and now that the end-line is in view and the US is seeing that several nations, and a few not friendly to America are ahead of them. They are trying whatever they can to avert disaster and I am not sure if that is even possible at present. As I personally see it, China played the long game and they are now the expected winning team. Ahead in defence contracts with the KSA, ahead with infrastructure contracts with the KSA and Telecom contracts and now that the others are waking up, we get “The aims of Blinken’s trip, analysts say, include regaining influence with Riyadh over oil prices, fending off Chinese and Russian influence in the region and nurturing hopes for an eventual normalisation of Saudi Arabian-Israeli ties.” What a surprise! I wrote on June 3rd in ‘Would you believe that?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/03/would-you-believe-that/) where I mentioned Russia, China and Iran. I also gave a list where we see these 4 points now directly or indirectly mentioned. 

2. Oil prices.
3. BRICS membership.
4. Defence spendings lost.
5. Iranian diplomatic settings.

And it does not end there. The article (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/7/blinken-starts-saudi-arabia-visit-aimed-at-steadying-relations) also gives us “Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Washington, DC-based think tank, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that discouraging a closer Saudi Arabian-Chinese relationship is probably the most important element of Blinken’s visit.” With the underlining “[Blinken should explain] why Chinese interests do not align with Saudi Arabia and why closer relations in a strategic way inhibit closer relations with Washington”. You see, here is the delusional stage. They are thinking that America still has options. I personally believe it is too late for that, if that was the case then this stage would be handled in 2019 (2015 would have been better), not in 2023. As I see it China merely waited for the US and EU bungle this to the largest degree and that happened in 2020 as China successfully courted The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for a whole range of issues and with the US president labelling the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia a pariah, that moment was reached. It wasn’t merely the straw that broke the camels back, it inhabited the entire convoy of Camels and now the end-game is coming into focus. For me (where I am now) it would in part be nice if Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) pulls it off, but he will have to sweeten the deal by a massive amount, not merely 1-2 promises, but a whole range of issues on paper signed by the president of the United States and here Congress, as well as the Senate better get out of the way, the loss will be too great if they bungle this. Still the chances of success are slim as I see it. Too much has passed and even as the United Nations played its anti-Saudi cards it might not be enough. As such a whole range of issues that got started by a United Nations essay by someone no one cares about, just like that columnist, that names eludes me for now.

More of my ‘insane predictions’ as some trolls would say are now a matter of fact and slowly we see the facts placed on papers as what is ‘stated’, but last week there was none of this. As such is the media doing its job? Are they looking into matters? What else are they missing? For me the case does not change much, other than the chance that Amazon wakes up to the billions they are missing out of, for me Tencent Technologies is a viable solution, it might cost me a little, but that is nothing to what Amazon and Facebook will lose out of. Google decided not to go ahead in this direction and as I am seeing certain players evolving ideas I had on a few occasions, the timing is decent (but it could have been better), still in light of where America is heading, I should be thankful for every dollar I will get out of this deal and as I see it time is growing shorter and shorter. Still as we see America trying to avoid sinking on the spot, we are all in decent fear of how it hits us, because there is no way that the western world (as well as most Commonwealth nations) will not get hit to some extent. All because we had faith in ego driven idiots (sorry, I meant politicians).

So, how is all this playing out for you?

Enjoy the midweek, we are now at 50% of the next weekend timeline.

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June 5, 2023 · 21:12

Slam-dunk for the blogger

Yup, I got to call the slam-dunk in my name, on my name and for my name. Now, I am no basketball fan, not when there is the NHL. But I have to give it to the NBA, that term they got right. So this all happened in the morning as I was pondering what was next on the table. Then the BBC gave me the heads up (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65804768) with the ominous ‘Oil prices rise as Saudi Arabia pledges output cuts’. I had made mention of this danger a few times over the last month alone and now we get “Oil prices have risen after Saudi Arabia said it would make cuts of a million barrels per day (bpd) in July” and remember it is only a million barrels a day, my scenario was a little less nice. This is the exact danger that I predicted and now that it is going to pass, I wonder what the trolls will shout at me. I made mention yesterday that oil prices would be on the calendar of Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) and now it actually is there and it will be a rather not so nice meeting coming up, I reckon that Iran is no longer the main focus. This and the stage of BRICS implies that hard times are ahead for the US and I reckon to some extent the EU too. Because now the US is driven to make the million less be a larger setting for the EU than for the US. A stage well predicted and now it is coming to pass. 

It is Sameer Hashmi, the BBC Middle East business correspondent who gives us “it was widely expected the oil cartel would make production cuts to prop up prices. It appears most members were against the idea, as any cuts would impact oil revenues, which are crucial to keep running their economies.” He is not wrong, but the oversimplified setting is that they are going from 4 barrels at $3, to three barrels at $4. They all still get their $12 (and then some), but the larger stage  comes into play when the equation turns towards 2 barrels for $6, they will still get the same, but now their supplies will last twice as long. The larger problem for the US is that they get 50% for the same price and they still haven’t considered muzzling Brent Oil, those people export over 80% and now something will have to give and that is the stage we are coning to now. So when the UK and EU start feeling the pain of less oil there economy will impact to a much larger extent and as the Just Stop Oil people start shouting victory, the impact of people who cannot pay for heating bills, tradies that can no longer work because their prices need to keep going up, the setting of losses all over rural nations (UK, Germany, Italy and France the most) will be seeing much larger impacts. A stage that was clearly out there. The clearest recent mention I made was on April 13th (almost 2 months ago) at ‘The song remains the same’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/04/13/the-song-remains-the-same/) it was clear that reductions were in the focal point of OPEC members and in this Russia is merely sitting back, for them it works out nicely. But the larger stages of economy are not set to the drawback of oil lacks, no scenario was set to that and that is the largest political failure in the west. In this the one solution they had with Elon Musk is now slipping from their fingers. So not only did the US bite both hands that could be feeding them, whatever comes next might not be in time for the next debt ceiling, implying that default is the only thing that Americans have to look forward to. 

So in the end one player wins, the other player loses, but I get my slam-dunk. Is it fair? That is not the question, I saw this and I predicted this, so why did these high paid politicians not see this? It wasn’t rocket science (well perhaps the Musk solution was). And as options run short the west needs to rethink the political egotistical needs they had and how they will sail with a lack of vision. All that and more hardships will be coming soon and they did this all to themselves and that setting was clear long before Trump took office. A setting of cogs and the first cog will not care what the second and third cog faces. That is the oversimplified truth of the matter, so whilst we watch the news this month, also look at how much enough the people have with the ‘Just stop oil’ movement. As I personally see it, the UK got directly hurt by them and the CAAT all on moral grounds that were massively one sided and based on a fake moral high ground. So remember them when your pump price goes from 189.9p to 293.4p. Don’t blame the pump owner, blame the people who made this happen. 

Enjoy the day (consider a bicycle).

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June 4, 2023 · 22:24

Within a day

I wrote a few things regarding BRICS in the last two days and now (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/iran-saudi-arabia-uae-attend-brics-meeting-south-africa-bloc-mulls-expansion#ixzz83fKlbzuL) we see ‘Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE attend BRICS meeting in South Africa, as bloc mulls expansion’, so I admit that I didn’t see Iran to become part of that, but the UAE is a nice addition, it also changes the game. Not sure if Iran should be part of it, but that might appeal to both the KSA and the UAE. So when we see ““The world has faltered in cooperation. Developed countries have never met their commitments to the developing world and are trying to shift all responsibility to the global South,”Pandor said. Upon his departure from Tehran, Amir-Abdollahian hailed BRICS as a body that represents half of the global population and called his visit an example of Iran’s “active presence at international bodies” and a step in Iran’s “balanced” foreign policy.” We might see one thing, think another and wonder what is real. I wonder what Iran is doing there. Are they on invitation to settle Russia, or is Iran there to appease the Middle East? I have no idea, but I would consider that there are other more qualified nations than Iran, Indonesia for one. So is it about the powerpoint of oil? Your guess is as good as mine, but the idea that UAE would be coming is now a reality. The BBC did not mention that. As such are the sources of AL-Monitor better, or had the west filtered out Iran? I honestly do not know, but the photo from June 2nd implies that the BBC filtered out certain names. As such I was not aware of UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan and I only aw this article a few hours ago. Yet there too we see the stage of BRICS. If the western media cannot tell us the truth, when they rely on censorship and editing to give us adjusted filtered information, who are we telling other nations what to do? We see the attacks on China, Russia and the Middle East and yes, I do not disagree, but when we do the same, is this not the media station of the pot calling the kettle black? 

So when we get “In a pre-recorded interview broadcast on state TV after his departure, Amir-Abdollahian said that a key topic on his agenda in Cape Town would be “de-dollarization” in trade with BRICS member states.” What can we object to? The US is broke, it is merely sailing from debt ceiling raise to another debt ceiling raise. It has no exit strategy and did not have any for well over a decade as it caters to political ego and the rest of the world is awaiting actual action. Well, that setting will kind of explode in our faces as China will do what is best for China and the western world does not count there. It is harsh, but we let our politicians make it that way. So what is next? That depends on how BRICS will go about it. It is dependent on how they decide to hurt or restrict the moves by the US, and no matter how that slides it will hurt Japan in massive ways (which will please China). But beyond that there is no telling what will happen. I still think it was a mistake for them to add Russia in its current shape, but that is not up to me. I reckon that the country to can keep tabs on beats the one they cannot and it is a wisdom that is beyond me, BRICS is giving Russia a stronger voice which in current settings is not good, but that is me talking. 

My mind flies over the setting of “de-dollarisation” and how it will take form. But at present I have no idea, I will need to seek out as much information as I can. 

Enjoy the last day of the weekend, Monday is coming.

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June 3, 2023 · 23:37

Would you believe that?

That was my very first thought when I saw (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/2/blinken-to-visit-saudi-arabia-to-discuss-strategic-cooperation) ‘Blinken to visit Saudi Arabia to discuss ‘strategic cooperation’’. There we are given “Blinken will “discuss US-Saudi strategic cooperation on regional and global issues and a range of bilateral issues including economic and security cooperation”, the State Department said in a statement.” I have an actual hard time believing that. You see there are a number of issues that count for the US.

1. Banking instabilities.
2. Oil prices.
3. BRICS membership.
4. Defence spendings lost.
5. Iranian diplomatic settings.
6. Syrian diplomatic settings.
7. Outstanding US bonds with the KSA.

These are just 7 issues of a whole range of problems that the US is facing ever since they burned their ally the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The fact that Saudi Arabia walked away from Credit Suisse is making the US rather nervous. They had this idea that when the going gets tough, the purse of Saudi Arabia is there to bail them out. That is not (or no longer) a given. The oil prices are biting the US and cheaper oil is for them essential, even though Brent Crude Oil is doing close no nothing to stop that pain. Then the new issue erupts and I mentioned this yesterday. BRICS is no longer on the sidelines. It wants the western worlds to adjust their views and they now have the muscle to do that, with Saudi Arabia added they will also have the money to do that. I personally think that Saudi Arabia will have a close ally, as such the UAE might become a member too. So now you see how the words of Italy are too little and too late (see my article 2 days ago). 

Then the think I mentioned a few times, as China gets the Saudi Defence spendings, the US will come up short and that bites as well and these are the biggest issues for the US, as such Iran is hardly a blip. OK, it is more but only when the world sees that when you are broke you cannot push for economic sanctions on Iran (Russia too) and it is already selling oil to India or Pakistan (not sure who) and China, so that marble is faltering nicely. Then there is Syria and the largest issue are the outstanding bonds that the US sold. I actually do not know how many the KSA or Kingdom Holdings have, but if they flood the markets they will lose money and it will be disaster for the US, who will run out of cash long before Q3 2024. Which means they are 1-2 quarters short, or perhaps better stated at the end of their wallets they need to survive another 2 quarters. Good luck with that idea in the US. 

So when we see the Al Jazeera article and many others on why Blinky Tony is going to Riyadh, I feel certain that there is a lot more going on that w are being told. And I feel certain that it is not on the media. I feel that the White House administration will never admit to this Oliver Twist moment with “Can I have some more please?” No one would admit to that, it is just a little weird to see the entire BRICS setting a day early and now we get this. 

And he has more on his plate. We get that with “attend Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) talks during his visit, starting on June 6”. I reckon that is when he will make mention of two variables (Iran and Syria). It is speculation, but that is what I (with no diplomatic knowledge) would do.

I reckon that this is one of the hardest times for the US State department ever. It did not help that it was this president who stated to make Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah. So how is that working out?

Enjoy the weekend.

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June 3, 2023 · 00:58

It’s a BRICS house

That was the setting and it is not a new setting. The BBC gives us (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65784030) ‘Brics ministers call for rebalancing of global order away from West’. This is not new to me. I made mentions even before I wrote ‘Brain drain, by design’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/11/17/brain-drain-by-design/) which was November 2022. So this is not new. I am not happy that Russia is in the mix and I did not consider Brazil in that mix. But India and China were. And even more, which we also see here with “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said “more than a dozen” countries including Saudi Arabia had expressed interest in joining the group”, which I saw coming a mile away. And I reckon that Saudi Arabia and China will then offer an inclusion to the UAE. It is now becoming a simple play that puts the US and the EU out of business. The UK still has its ties to India, as such it needs to play a very careful game to not be set aside, and it is possible that the UK will have some form of shelter, but the US is pretty much done for. It’s news cycle is all about avoiding defaulting from one point to another, and when that goes wrong it goes really wrong with the US and the EU, both Canada and the UK will feel that sting massively. Then as Japan goes Australia will be in similar dire conditions. A stage that was never speculative, anyone with a decent grasp of the abacus could work that out and the  biggest trap they went for was to shut Saudi Arabia out, to let (according to their ego’s) it become a pariah. All for a journalist no one gave a fig about. More importantly there was never any evidence, that much was clear in that United Nations essay and they tried it again with that cyber report that involved Jeff Bezos. Now that new house, that domicile made from BRICS and its members will become the new world powers. As I said, the fact that it includes Russia is not my choice and I am not happy about it. And now that we see more and more business outsourcing to India, that stage will change even more. Those in doubt better get a clue, because if I see my tactics correctly, the BRICS union will set stations so that there is no more debt raising for the US. I am not sure how they will pull it off, but if any of the BRICS members now or new will sell their US bonds it will all stop right quick. We were that close to the edge and now that edge is crumbling. I might not be in time to sell my IP, but I do have an alternative and that setting is close. I will not get much, if anything, but I will get out with my skin decently intact, which is likely more than most others can say at that point. 

So when we consider the BRICS members (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) a new setting comes and with that the largest ass kissing contest in the EU will start with vonder Leyen on her knees. After that whatever allies the US had will be running for the hills, any hill for that matter. The rich people will already have plans in place, they will have locations ready and they will watch from a massive distance with family and friends how the US implodes upon itself. I reckon that 2024 will be the least comfortable place on the planet to be at that point. Yes, people will call me crazy, people will say that I am causing a panic. Yet these facts were out there for anyone to see, you merely thought that the western media would give you the goods, something they haven’t done in close to a decade. I gave several clues out on several matters on how the media was giving you the runaround going all the way back to September 2012. But you all thought I was crazy. Well, when this situation becomes a reality, you get to see how crazy I was. Did you actually think that someone can have a $32,000,000,000,000 debt and no one comes to collect? I have seen people hide under beds because someone was ringing the doorbell for an outstanding $750. And the final parts was seen a few months ago when Saudi Arabia closed the door on ‘saving’ with a simple “The head of Credit Suisse Group’s largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank (SNB), said on Wednesday it would not buy more shares in the Swiss bank on regulatory grounds” Did you think it was going to be that simple? They lost lost more than $26,000,000,000 in market value. That was the setting I did not initially see, but when we see the larger stage we see that it was more then a loss. I reckon that whatever BRICS has in place, or is about to have in place. The US is now in deep water, they are up to their neck and someone is adding water to the equation. For China it will work out rather well. You see after the US falls, Japan is pretty much next in line with a debt of $9,300,000,000,000, or 1,343.4 % of their GDP. A debt that is 13 times their GDP, without the US that will pretty much strangle them over night and whomever had those bonds can end that economy right there, right quick.

Did you think they were all too big too fail? 

A writer named Jenny Holzer wrote Truisms (1978-1983) gave us “Change is valuable because it lets the oppressed be tyrants.” I think we are about to see the impact of just how nasty that could end up being. 

Could I be wrong?
Of course I can be wrong, yet consider what is shown, and what was implicitly not shown. When you put those two together you get an image. Yes we can speculate that some are presenting a wannabe scenario. Yet two of these players (China and India) have the drive, the people and the will to push forward. Now add the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to the mix and you get a massive unsettling concoction that no one in the west wants to try and that is what we see now. The next debt ceiling is January 2025, which might sound nice, but if some of these bonds are set to market in 2024 the US will be in much deeper waters and this is not a secret either. I wrote about this (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/12/i-honestly-dont-get-it/) on March 12th with ‘I honestly don’t get it’ and even before that. Who will push? I have no idea, because I do not know where all the US bonds are and the media wasn’t too sharing, were they? 

So you can look int this or consider moving to anywhere where this cesspool does not hit, which is another reason why I was eager to sell my IP to Saudi Arabia and the Kingdom Holding Co. I reckoned that a (starting) 5 billion annual revenue stream would appeal to them, apparently I was wrong there too. Will I be wrong again? Perhaps, but I have been correct a lot more times than I was wrong. As such I have a decent confidence in me being right.

Enjoy the weekend (or at least try to).

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June 2, 2023 · 01:36

Is it too little, too late?

That is at times the question. What I think does not matter, I can be opinionated. Yet that part is still part of the speculative side that I walk. Only those who are in power in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can actually state what is real. The rest including those think tanks are clueless. Well, think tanks have a deeper generic knowledge, as such it is no longer speculation, it is presumption. It is knowledge based on data and knowledge they have, it is more accurate than speculation, but how much more is depending on the political hands that they also feed. 

As such Reuters gave us (at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-ends-yemen-linked-embargo-arms-sales-saudi-arabia-2023-05-31/) ‘Italy ends Yemen-linked embargo on arms sales to Saudi Arabia’ this is good for Italy and it will help the EU, but how much? That remains to be seen. This 11th hour turnaround might have som impact, but will it be enough. For it to matter the UK needed to come across months ago and they didn’t and now China has the bulk of the orders ready for consideration. Italy as such might get some, but will it be enough and there the setting of ‘too little too late’ comes into play. Even as they include the UAE, the setting was always going to be the massive billions that the KSA had to spend and even as we consider that the KSA expenditure reached $75 billion last year, most of it is now going towards China. A safe bet is 40%-50%, but I reckon that China stands to gain up to 70%, all that revenue lost to the US, UK and the EU. The losses for these three are likely THAT big. Mine is not presumption, I do not have certain access. It is speculation at best, but how wrong do you think I am? We saw the courting by Chinese officials in 2021 and 2022 and now that they have made their impact Italy is now ending its embargo with a nice “praising Saudi Arabia’s recent peace mediation efforts”? Who are they kidding? The UK handed their revenue to the tea grannies of the CAAT, well a lot of good that did, China just took over and now none of them have anything to tell anyone. Well CAAT can state that they kept their heads high, so when OPEC adheres to the need of Just stop oil and 250K barrels a day go to China instead of the UK, what will have been achieved? I can tell you, nothing. Nothing will have been achieved, but the quality of life in the UK will go down further. 

We see now all kinds of changes and whilst the political arms give lame excuses all around us, the reality is that we opened our big mouths and there is a cost to that, but when the coffers are empty like most coffers in the US, the UK and most EU countries the cost of living will bite more and more. I tried to warn you all for at least three years and these options are all scuttled and they will not mature. So as Italy is making its step hoping there is some time left, I wonder if there was any time left. It is my speculative view that this is too little and it is way too late, but then my speculation could be wrong. You tell me, I honestly am not certain at present. 

Enjoy the day, the day before the weekend is merely one day away.

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May 28, 2023 · 11:12

The optician’s folly

It is a setting that exists. I don’t think that I have ever faced it myself. I have met short sighted managers, people whose pupils have reshaped into dollar signs, so if it didn’t meet their revenue goals it would be invisible to the eye. I have met all kinds of stupid people, not those who lacked intelligence, but those who pig headed ran into a situation regardless of the consequence. I have seen all those and I was in the military. I saw the middle east through non touristy eyes, even though my own point of view was warped to say the least. We all have been there or saw something to that degree. Yet the larger stage that the BBC gives us (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65724065) is totally new and a new kind of weird. The article ‘Navy finds ‘perfect storm’ of problems in elite Seals course’ doesn’t really come close or do it justice. This is not on the BBC or the writer. They reported and reported correctly. Yet this setting on the US Navy Seals is beyond comprehension. It starts with “The US Navy’s report found that the programme put “candidates at significant risk” of injury and death. The investigation followed the death of a 24-year-old sailor during the course in February 2022” and goes arctic pretty much soon thereafter. You see, I was taken aback when I saw “Naval investigators found that medical care at the course was “poorly organised, poorly integrated and poorly led”, factors which it believes “likely had the most direct impact on the health and well being” of candidates.” Consider that you have a collection of sailors, they are good, really good. As such the Navy have a vested interest to keep them safe. Now some of them think that they have it to be the best of the best of the best of the best. There will be a decent amount who will not make it, we get that. To become one of the elite is questionable on a few levels, but I get that some are driven to become elite and I accept that. I would never be that good, but I get that some are. Now consider that these were already way above average sailors and that is fine. So in what universe is it OK to handle a “poorly organised, poorly integrated and poorly led medical unit?” If they are not the stuff of legend and they state that this is an attrition rate of between 70% and 85% per class. Why not keep those safe and more important keep those who make it even more safe? Even as we get the doctors lollie with “a Navy official said that 10 people identified in the report – including two high ranking officers – are facing possible prosecution for Mr Mullen’s death” the larger issue is not that it was happening, but that there was a cluster of 10 men. This implies a much larger failure and for what? There is absolutely nothing to be gained from this level of failure and I wonder how that sails on the court martial hearings of the top brass involved. 

Then we get to “The report also found that some students turned to performance-enhancing drugs to improve their chances of completing BUD/S, a long-standing issue that the Navy had been slow to address.” This is another notch on the top brass addressing list. A place like the Navy Seals with ‘a long-standing issue that the Navy had been slow to address’? The Navy Seals no less, someone didn’t want this to be dealt with. A sort of accepted level of cheating. Will the person do whatever needs to be done? That is more than a tall order and it stands that those who make it, some will be dopey’s and more importantly they will have mental health issues, because when you are willing to do whatever needs to be done, the civilian side in that person will not be working properly and that person becomes a hazard to all around him. That is a setting that is clear from the very start and the top brass did not see that? Where did they get their ranks? With a pack of butter at the 7-11? 

I have ousted and firm believes and I get that plenty will not adhere to that, or even accept that. I was in favour of targeted killing from the start. To see this I need to give you the talk. You see most judges are to my point of view cowards, they adhere to the golden calf. Why you ask? The law is there for us all and it keeps 80% within lines. 19.997% are criminals and repeat offenders and the law deals with that, I am all for that. Yet there is a 0.003% that are driven by chaos, to hurt and kills whatever needs hurting or killing. They will never stop and until they are dead everyone is at risk. So it is a rare thing but it needs to be done. Now consider that the Navy has a training camp that creates people that are part of that 0.003% group. This is not fighting fire with fire, this is creating a fire and walking away, let nature run its course. Now in the wild this might optionally happen. Yet what to do when such a fire is set in Tampa Florida? A place with over 35% forests in the city and that city has 387,000 people, what then? As such, for a unit like the Navy Seals better than expected medical needs would be essential, when you unite these two views you will see that keeping these seals at the top of their game would be essential. As such the failure of the top brass here is a much larger failure than anyone ever considered. I am not sure if the Navy and its secretary Carlos Del Toro have any clue how large the failings are in this place. If not for those who are then at the very least for the ones who did not make it, because no one in the navy likes failure. We get that some have their sights set too high and this happens, but that is why these training camps exist. Many will wash out and they will understand it was not for them, but they were still better than good sailors and that waste is perhaps the most grievous failing. They failed the man of the navy to an unacceptable level and for the “slow to address” side? Well that is a whole other enchilada that the Navy and its JAG division will need to take a hard and harsh look at.

Enjoy the near end of the weekend.

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