That was the first thing I considered when I was reading some story about recruiters. The same thing we have seen for decades. Interrogations, not an interview. Fake promises (experienced that myself) and forever the need to collect as many resumes as possible. It is the old way and covid changed ways, yet it seems that recruiters are in the dark on what they need to do. Like taximeters, trying to get to the next ‘cling’ on the timeline.
And then the largest failing of any recruiter. No communication at all. It is like sending a ship in a bottle into a bottomless pit, never to be heard from again. This is exactly why recruiters have lost well over 90% of credibility of whomever they had contact with. I have (to the best of my knowledge) never had any feedback from a recruiter and over a decade only one has ever arranged an interview. I didn’t get that job, but when I saw the scope of what they needed, they would take someone more experienced. So no hard feelings. One in 10 years.
Recruiters need to alter their scope, their vision and their approach. Yet as far as I can tell there is no chance of that happening. To be honest, I saw one interesting approach last week. One recruiter (or firm) set the advertisement with the line ‘Would you like to be a millionaire in 2023?’ OK, this might be largely fake, but it would catch anyones eye. And an eye catcher is good, but the rest still matters. And in the past LinkedIn was the one place to go, but it seems that they are taking a page out of the approach that Seek had been making. Job notifications are merely advertisement space and that is how it feels. I might be wrong, but for that the job posters would have to communicate. In this the problem is that my setting is that I have had less than 2% response to my application with 60% of those being “We have received your application” the rest were right out rejections, but that is fair. At least you know where you are at that point.
Still in Australia in a place where ageism is key, I would think that the people who have the decades of experience are learning. We see messages like “Australia’s skills shortage shows no signs of improving as the latest job reports point to gaps in industries” are abundant, and this was less than 3 months ago. Yet the cold shoulder approach that recruiters give are no sign that there is any work shortage and as stated the thousands of jobs that places like Amazon, IBM, Microsoft, and Google had shed are decent proof of that.
As such, I am also looking international. Yet at my age that is a dubious approach to take. On the upside, if a firm is large enough and they require me to also man a desk in an international office, that might not be the worst idea to consider. I am still hoping that places like Google and Amazon pen their eyes to the fact that they left billions on the floor, but hey, we can all wish that someone opens their eyes, can’t we?
What is getting clear is that the 90’s approach to recruiting is no longer working and it hasn’t worked for some time. As I personally see it, recruiters are the Direct Marketers of a world that is guiding their postal box straight to the circular filing system. But that might just be me.
For me I am silently enjoying last night’s dream. I was in the Dubai Mall and a baby Cheetah (yes those fast cats) jumped on my lap as I was sitting on a bench, the little rascal curled up and fell asleep. I reckon the holy grail for any cat lover. I woke up with quite the smile on my face.
Enjoy today day, the next weekend is now within reach.
This thought came to me last night after I have had a few negative encounters with places like JB HiFi and likeminded places. First off, JB Hifi (et al) did nothing wrong. They were all as kind and as customer service minded as needed. What was the small fact is that I had a few dollars at my disposal and I wanted to catch up with music by Bowie, Kraftwerk, Enigma, Supertramp and a few others. None were available. Moreover there is a whole range of other musicians that would not normally be available in Australia. Then I remembered the larger setting. It was IP, but not mine. It was a Dutch entrepreneur named Hans Breukhoven who created the Dutch chain ‘Free Record Store’. It was as impressive as JB HiFi or the Virgin Megastore. He came up with the idea where people selected an album and it would be created at the spot. In the 90’s this was too new, too forward thinking, but I reckon he had the right idea. Now we rely on Spotify, but why? And when bandwidth becomes an issue, places like Spotify will have a problem. What matters is that this idea by a place like Amazon (most likely) could create a special store in the larger cities first, creating such a place. Allowing people to connect to music and strongly local music.
You see there is no clear number of expats globally, but some sources state it is well over 250,000,000 people. Consider that there are that many people that cannot connect to their original music. We can give you a list, but that list becomes too large and too overwhelming. New York Alone has an expected 3.4 million expats. As such one store offering them a whole range of music done at that point and offered to these people become a viable solution now. After that places like London, Paris, Amsterdam and like minded locations become a next setting. It is becoming more and more easy to create high quality CD’s, the elements are there, the printing options are there and it is not out of the realm of possibilities that a place like Amazon will partner with a place like QuickCopy and complete the circle. Where do you find local Italian music? Name a nation and the names will come pouring out. The idea that Hans Breukhoven had was spot on, he was merely too early with the idea and he left us without seeing it come to fruition. Yet I reckon that this is registered IP and they might want to consider talking to Amazon about it. Amazon is not the only player, but it is the most viable player to make it work and I reckon that an element that has the ability to become a billion dollar industry should not be ignored, but that might merely be me.
No matter how it turns out for me, I reckon that there is a market which is now becoming large enough to take another look at the ideas that some rejected over the last few decades, but that might merely be me.
For those with the simple setting that I should rely on Amazon, they are not incorrect. You see, I believe in supporting my own local hooker (a term from the 70’s). I get that Amazon is soon the only option for me, but that implies that the local shops have failed and I believe that it is my duty to offer them a solution, even if Amazon is added to it, unless they partner with QuickCopy, making my believe sound fine. You see, it is not merely about the music we all like. How about musicians like Abadi Al-Johar, Adriano Celentano, Sakis Rouvas, Liesbeth List, Rufus Wainwright or Gustavo Cerati. I know merely two of them. But the world is larger than me and the setting of someone wanting an album now is not out of the realm of possibilities and when we have that running. People will have an evolving mind towards movies. DVD’s is an option, but Blu-Rays not yet (as far as I know). A station where distribution will lose out of, merely because they cannot have all and that tracks will have to evolve and the idea that Hans Breukhoven had a few decades ago is now starting to make more and more sense. And I get nothing out of this, which is not a prerequisite. I believe that in this world, in this economy we will need to put all hands on deck to start making an impact. This today was mine, I have had a few ideas in the past and I merely added another one. I do not reject anything because it is not part of my bottom line, that is the stupid approach of a local thinking manager. It is as someone once said Think Local, Act global and I am merely doing my part.
Enjoy the day, soon you are merely one day away from the day before the weekend.
Yes, a few hours ago, the AL-Monitor gave me the news (and anyone else who reads it) that ‘Canada’s arms exports boom to Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar’ (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/canadas-arms-exports-boom-saudi-arabia-israel-qatar) now you think this is great news (as in size of the news), but you would be wrong. Canada, the other commonwealth nations as well as America are waking up to the coffee (optionally served by Tim Horton himself). When we read “most of the shipments coming from a $15 billion contract reached in 2014 but only approved for export by Canada’s current government” and you consider ‘Is it too little, too late?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/02/is-it-too-little-too-late/), which I wrote on June 2nd and you take the scale of the setting, you will see just how desperate the US is at present. Is it that Saudi Arabia is siding with BRICS? Is it because Saudi Arabia decided to cut production by a million barrels per day? Your guess is as good as mine, yet this is the setting and the Canadian BS line that it only got approved by the current government does not compute with me. This is the result of bad management on too many levels of US administration and now that the end-line is in view and the US is seeing that several nations, and a few not friendly to America are ahead of them. They are trying whatever they can to avert disaster and I am not sure if that is even possible at present. As I personally see it, China played the long game and they are now the expected winning team. Ahead in defence contracts with the KSA, ahead with infrastructure contracts with the KSA and Telecom contracts and now that the others are waking up, we get “The aims of Blinken’s trip, analysts say, include regaining influence with Riyadh over oil prices, fending off Chinese and Russian influence in the region and nurturing hopes for an eventual normalisation of Saudi Arabian-Israeli ties.” What a surprise! I wrote on June 3rd in ‘Would you believe that?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/03/would-you-believe-that/) where I mentioned Russia, China and Iran. I also gave a list where we see these 4 points now directly or indirectly mentioned.
And it does not end there. The article (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/7/blinken-starts-saudi-arabia-visit-aimed-at-steadying-relations) also gives us “Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Washington, DC-based think tank, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that discouraging a closer Saudi Arabian-Chinese relationship is probably the most important element of Blinken’s visit.” With the underlining “[Blinken should explain] why Chinese interests do not align with Saudi Arabia and why closer relations in a strategic way inhibit closer relations with Washington”. You see, here is the delusional stage. They are thinking that America still has options. I personally believe it is too late for that, if that was the case then this stage would be handled in 2019 (2015 would have been better), not in 2023. As I see it China merely waited for the US and EU bungle this to the largest degree and that happened in 2020 as China successfully courted The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for a whole range of issues and with the US president labelling the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia a pariah, that moment was reached. It wasn’t merely the straw that broke the camels back, it inhabited the entire convoy of Camels and now the end-game is coming into focus. For me (where I am now) it would in part be nice if Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) pulls it off, but he will have to sweeten the deal by a massive amount, not merely 1-2 promises, but a whole range of issues on paper signed by the president of the United States and here Congress, as well as the Senate better get out of the way, the loss will be too great if they bungle this. Still the chances of success are slim as I see it. Too much has passed and even as the United Nations played its anti-Saudi cards it might not be enough. As such a whole range of issues that got started by a United Nations essay by someone no one cares about, just like that columnist, that names eludes me for now.
More of my ‘insane predictions’ as some trolls would say are now a matter of fact and slowly we see the facts placed on papers as what is ‘stated’, but last week there was none of this. As such is the media doing its job? Are they looking into matters? What else are they missing? For me the case does not change much, other than the chance that Amazon wakes up to the billions they are missing out of, for me Tencent Technologies is a viable solution, it might cost me a little, but that is nothing to what Amazon and Facebook will lose out of. Google decided not to go ahead in this direction and as I am seeing certain players evolving ideas I had on a few occasions, the timing is decent (but it could have been better), still in light of where America is heading, I should be thankful for every dollar I will get out of this deal and as I see it time is growing shorter and shorter. Still as we see America trying to avoid sinking on the spot, we are all in decent fear of how it hits us, because there is no way that the western world (as well as most Commonwealth nations) will not get hit to some extent. All because we had faith in ego driven idiots (sorry, I meant politicians).
So, how is all this playing out for you?
Enjoy the midweek, we are now at 50% of the next weekend timeline.
This is the stage, it is not exactly ding dong ditch, but the stage is not that far off. Some would state kiddingly “How do you tell the difference between a male door from a female door ?One’s got a ding dong and the other knockers.” Yet the larger truth is hidden here. It is a combination of anticipation and expectation. In market research it is about engagement that engagement is depending on Business Intelligence and most brands have been slacking off, they can no longer tell the difference between what the party lines tells THEM and what the consumers expect. There is a misalignment (not some Miss Alignment). The ITP (at https://www.itp.net/business/uae-consumers-expect-brands-to-get-them-report) gives us ‘UAE consumers expect brands to ‘get’ them: Report’ in this I am referring to places like the Dubai Mall. They are doing a much better job, but they are also vying for attention. That place has more than 1200 outlets and places like Louis Vuitton are vying for the attention of people also seeing Burberry, Armani, Dior, Cartier, Hermes and Prada , all in the same mall. A place that is over 12,100,000 square ft in size, so they need to get it right the first time. You see these places aren’t really competitive for people with a misers purse. When you see a person walking with a shopping bag that might not fit a sandwich, that person is likely to have spend $5000, as such he or she is done for the day. And that mall has 200,000 of visitors a day, as such they need to get on point to get their fair share. Business Intelligence is the currency that assists and here we see “According to the study, a staggering 92 percent of respondents claimed that it’s important for brands to “get” them. These findings come at a time when brand loyalty is plummeting, with 91 percent of consumers surveyed in the UAE (15 percentage points higher than the EMEA average) claiming to be less loyal to brands compared to two years ago. Nearly one in four individuals (23 percent) attribute this decline in loyalty to disappointing experiences.” I personally believe that it comes from the people expecting some kind of engagement, and to be honest, outside of the videos on the Dubai Kids Zone, I have not seen to much engagement. One of My IP solves that, but it is not mean for one shop, it is meant for the entire mall. It is the brands that require to create some level of engagement and to be honest. In all the mall walkthrough videos I have not seen any. You might wonder what that means. You see, the video walker will call attention and thus far, apart from the sensational views that the mall offers, I have not seen any. And my personal view is seen with “When asked about specific expectations, the researchers discovered that 79 percent of the UAE sample population emphasised the importance of brands consistently being aware of their purchasing habits. Furthermore, 86 percent of respondents insisted that companies should remember their preferred communication channel. A staggering 91 percent called for personalised discounts, while 86 percent urged brands to offer tailored recommendations during engagement sessions.” And consider this ‘86 percent urged brands to offer tailored recommendations during engagement’ Now there is debate on how to go about it and I reckon that this is on their marketing groups, but when we get a number like 86% it matter, it matters a great deal. I myself am on the fence, not on what is done, but how it is done.How to do cater to a Muslim population? In New York you set the Victory Secrets line in the open and the people come gushing, that will not work in Dubai. In other versions I prefer to have fun, as such the Mall could do something like below.
Not real people of course, but the heads do not fall into a number, but into a slot with a brand and the ‘winner’ gets a small token from that brand. Perhaps to add a factor, the numbers 5,10,8,5 will be replaced by “Diesel, Adidas, Nike”, “Burberry, Dior, Hermes”, “Prada, Chanel, Cartier” and “Virgin, Sony and Nespresso” the (animated) head falls down the ramp and falls into one slot, then the visitor gets to grab one present from a barrel. An element of surprise and one of excitement. I reckon that line will fill up massively and fast. This is not the only way, some companies have their own way of engagement and they need to dig deep to create engagement, because when a place that rocks 200,000 visitors a day state that 86% of them had a less than great experience, it is time to evaluate what you are doing and the images below show great views, but it is lacking engagement. So why is that? And don’t think it is one shop, Louis Vuitton and Virgin both rock the view, and lack the engagement as far as I can tell.
So how to get the attention? This is a much harder question, it is how to get them and that has been a life long struggle right from the bat. Customer engagement starts at one point and goes around towards what grabs them and Market Research is about masses, engagement is about that person, as such BI needs to evolve into new areas of engagement and that is the rub, how to go about it? The study gives us “The study revealed that 86 percent of respondents (15 percentage points higher than the EMEA average) considered it important for brands to provide a customer experience supported by the latest technology. Similarly, 85 percent (21 percentage points higher than the EMEA average) expressed their likelihood of being more loyal to a brand that invests in technology to enhance the customer experience.” And yes a TV screen creates more engagement, but at the Virgin Megastore, where were the gaming corners?
Where are the places that interacts with people? It is not merely the best TV or the best screen size, it is what grabs a persons attention and there places like Adidas could benefit by adding a sport element in the store, it could benefit by having a place like Hermes open a creative corner.
Consider buying a pyjama. One of the dreariest acts I ever face, but what happens when you can create your favourite pyjama (optionally in a more privacy setting)? It seems that the Arabic world is all about sports, as such what happens when you get to create your next polo-shirt based on YOUR favourite team? The Dubai Mall sports two Hockey teams, so why aren’t brands using that for more interaction? They might, but I never saw it. If the world of consumers is about engagement, the lack of attempts is equally staggering. You see, one of these walk throughs would have shown something. And it wouldn’t need to be ‘horrific’ like feeding a mermaid to the sharks, but between doing nothing and doing something horrific is quite literally an ocean of sand. So when this all starts with data, how is it captured? How are people engaged in this stream? That is equally important a side to manage correctly and even as I like the article, we see nothing on that. Especially in the UAE where tourism is at an all time high. What separates the local shopper from the tourist? It is not always clear and I believe that Harrods had its own set of problems in the 90’s. And when you have a study that boasts “21 percentage points higher than the EMEA average” I personally believe it matters a great deal, but the first observation is clear, there is seemingly a lack of engagement in the UAE (specifically the Dubai Mall). Oh, and this is not all me, places like the TRO group have been rocking the Omni-Channel Advertising for well over a decade and they have been showing that there is power in engagement. So it is not just me, there are expert voices all over the place, but the larger Market Research and marketing community doesn’t know how to interact in an engaging sphere, as such they do not touch it. Yet that might merely be my view on the matter.
Enjoy the day and take the time to smell your cup of coffee, because that too is engagement.
Yup, I got to call the slam-dunk in my name, on my name and for my name. Now, I am no basketball fan, not when there is the NHL. But I have to give it to the NBA, that term they got right. So this all happened in the morning as I was pondering what was next on the table. Then the BBC gave me the heads up (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65804768) with the ominous ‘Oil prices rise as Saudi Arabia pledges output cuts’. I had made mention of this danger a few times over the last month alone and now we get “Oil prices have risen after Saudi Arabia said it would make cuts of a million barrels per day (bpd) in July” and remember it is only a million barrels a day, my scenario was a little less nice. This is the exact danger that I predicted and now that it is going to pass, I wonder what the trolls will shout at me. I made mention yesterday that oil prices would be on the calendar of Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) and now it actually is there and it will be a rather not so nice meeting coming up, I reckon that Iran is no longer the main focus. This and the stage of BRICS implies that hard times are ahead for the US and I reckon to some extent the EU too. Because now the US is driven to make the million less be a larger setting for the EU than for the US. A stage well predicted and now it is coming to pass.
It is Sameer Hashmi, the BBC Middle East business correspondent who gives us “it was widely expected the oil cartel would make production cuts to prop up prices. It appears most members were against the idea, as any cuts would impact oil revenues, which are crucial to keep running their economies.” He is not wrong, but the oversimplified setting is that they are going from 4 barrels at $3, to three barrels at $4. They all still get their $12 (and then some), but the larger stage comes into play when the equation turns towards 2 barrels for $6, they will still get the same, but now their supplies will last twice as long. The larger problem for the US is that they get 50% for the same price and they still haven’t considered muzzling Brent Oil, those people export over 80% and now something will have to give and that is the stage we are coning to now. So when the UK and EU start feeling the pain of less oil there economy will impact to a much larger extent and as the Just Stop Oil people start shouting victory, the impact of people who cannot pay for heating bills, tradies that can no longer work because their prices need to keep going up, the setting of losses all over rural nations (UK, Germany, Italy and France the most) will be seeing much larger impacts. A stage that was clearly out there. The clearest recent mention I made was on April 13th (almost 2 months ago) at ‘The song remains the same’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/04/13/the-song-remains-the-same/) it was clear that reductions were in the focal point of OPEC members and in this Russia is merely sitting back, for them it works out nicely. But the larger stages of economy are not set to the drawback of oil lacks, no scenario was set to that and that is the largest political failure in the west. In this the one solution they had with Elon Musk is now slipping from their fingers. So not only did the US bite both hands that could be feeding them, whatever comes next might not be in time for the next debt ceiling, implying that default is the only thing that Americans have to look forward to.
So in the end one player wins, the other player loses, but I get my slam-dunk. Is it fair? That is not the question, I saw this and I predicted this, so why did these high paid politicians not see this? It wasn’t rocket science (well perhaps the Musk solution was). And as options run short the west needs to rethink the political egotistical needs they had and how they will sail with a lack of vision. All that and more hardships will be coming soon and they did this all to themselves and that setting was clear long before Trump took office. A setting of cogs and the first cog will not care what the second and third cog faces. That is the oversimplified truth of the matter, so whilst we watch the news this month, also look at how much enough the people have with the ‘Just stop oil’ movement. As I personally see it, the UK got directly hurt by them and the CAAT all on moral grounds that were massively one sided and based on a fake moral high ground. So remember them when your pump price goes from 189.9p to 293.4p. Don’t blame the pump owner, blame the people who made this happen.
That is a question I am wondering about. This all started last night when I saw some advertisement of Belvedere Vodka with Daniel Craig (kind of) dancing in it. This reminded me of Christoper Walken in the video of Weapon of choice by Fatboy Slim. This is how it started. You see, in 1980 he starred in a movie called Dogs of war, made after a book by Frederick Forsyth. The cast was good, I personally liked the movie, yet it only made $5.4 million on a $8 million budget. A failure Hollywood would say. Another movie made on an unpublished work was The Wild Geese from 1978, also all star cast making almost 10 million on a nearly 12 million budget. Another failure according to Hollywood. Still they were good movies and both had unorthodox settings in those days. The audience was not ready for these movies.
So what happens when Netflix, Apple or Amazon takes a stab at these making them massively darker, making them larger (like a Mini series) You see, these movies could never be made in 135 minutes. But in 4-6 episodes of 60-90 minutes this takes on a whole new form and this time it is to an audience who is ready for the setting of either movie. And not for nothing, Frederick Forsyth has published a whole range of books that could be redone. Some more readily then others. We think of the fourth protocol as the movie that launched Pierce Brosnan into stardom, and opposing Michael Caine he did the job, but in this day and age that setting is suddenly a lot more real than ever before. The Fourth Protocol made twice the budget, as such it might not be seen as a failure. Yet these stories could rake in the viewers and therefor the cash. I am considering the thought that these movies were ahead of their time and Hollywood trying to blockbuster whatever they could got to these scripts too early. This is merely a personal view and optionally not the right one. Yet I wonder if anyone in these three houses looked at the movies that never made a profit and wondered if they could now. Both Wild Geese and the Dogs of War had the setting of a good story, they had the background to make it interesting (especially Steward Granger as the exploiting merchant banker Sir Edward Matheson in Wild Geese), all sides that were never explored, you could not do that in 134 minutes. Yet now, in the streaming age these jewels could make a new appearance, they are over 40 years old now. I wonder what more these three could find if they altered the vision they have.
Good movies aren’t grown on trees, they are found in scripts and at the moment the search for scripts is a whole new problem (until the strikes are a thing of the past). They might not have script writers now, but the preamble to prepare for tomorrow is not something you want to leave in the field, not in this day and age.
I wrote a few things regarding BRICS in the last two days and now (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/iran-saudi-arabia-uae-attend-brics-meeting-south-africa-bloc-mulls-expansion#ixzz83fKlbzuL) we see ‘Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE attend BRICS meeting in South Africa, as bloc mulls expansion’, so I admit that I didn’t see Iran to become part of that, but the UAE is a nice addition, it also changes the game. Not sure if Iran should be part of it, but that might appeal to both the KSA and the UAE. So when we see ““The world has faltered in cooperation. Developed countries have never met their commitments to the developing world and are trying to shift all responsibility to the global South,”Pandor said. Upon his departure from Tehran, Amir-Abdollahian hailed BRICS as a body that represents half of the global population and called his visit an example of Iran’s “active presence at international bodies” and a step in Iran’s “balanced” foreign policy.” We might see one thing, think another and wonder what is real. I wonder what Iran is doing there. Are they on invitation to settle Russia, or is Iran there to appease the Middle East? I have no idea, but I would consider that there are other more qualified nations than Iran, Indonesia for one. So is it about the powerpoint of oil? Your guess is as good as mine, but the idea that UAE would be coming is now a reality. The BBC did not mention that. As such are the sources of AL-Monitor better, or had the west filtered out Iran? I honestly do not know, but the photo from June 2nd implies that the BBC filtered out certain names. As such I was not aware of UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan and I only aw this article a few hours ago. Yet there too we see the stage of BRICS. If the western media cannot tell us the truth, when they rely on censorship and editing to give us adjusted filtered information, who are we telling other nations what to do? We see the attacks on China, Russia and the Middle East and yes, I do not disagree, but when we do the same, is this not the media station of the pot calling the kettle black?
So when we get “In a pre-recorded interview broadcast on state TV after his departure, Amir-Abdollahian said that a key topic on his agenda in Cape Town would be “de-dollarization” in trade with BRICS member states.” What can we object to? The US is broke, it is merely sailing from debt ceiling raise to another debt ceiling raise. It has no exit strategy and did not have any for well over a decade as it caters to political ego and the rest of the world is awaiting actual action. Well, that setting will kind of explode in our faces as China will do what is best for China and the western world does not count there. It is harsh, but we let our politicians make it that way. So what is next? That depends on how BRICS will go about it. It is dependent on how they decide to hurt or restrict the moves by the US, and no matter how that slides it will hurt Japan in massive ways (which will please China). But beyond that there is no telling what will happen. I still think it was a mistake for them to add Russia in its current shape, but that is not up to me. I reckon that the country to can keep tabs on beats the one they cannot and it is a wisdom that is beyond me, BRICS is giving Russia a stronger voice which in current settings is not good, but that is me talking.
My mind flies over the setting of “de-dollarisation” and how it will take form. But at present I have no idea, I will need to seek out as much information as I can.
Enjoy the last day of the weekend, Monday is coming.
That was my very first thought when I saw (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/2/blinken-to-visit-saudi-arabia-to-discuss-strategic-cooperation) ‘Blinken to visit Saudi Arabia to discuss ‘strategic cooperation’’. There we are given “Blinken will “discuss US-Saudi strategic cooperation on regional and global issues and a range of bilateral issues including economic and security cooperation”, the State Department said in a statement.” I have an actual hard time believing that. You see there are a number of issues that count for the US.
1. Banking instabilities. 2. Oil prices. 3. BRICS membership. 4. Defence spendings lost. 5. Iranian diplomatic settings. 6. Syrian diplomatic settings. 7. Outstanding US bonds with the KSA.
These are just 7 issues of a whole range of problems that the US is facing ever since they burned their ally the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The fact that Saudi Arabia walked away from Credit Suisse is making the US rather nervous. They had this idea that when the going gets tough, the purse of Saudi Arabia is there to bail them out. That is not (or no longer) a given. The oil prices are biting the US and cheaper oil is for them essential, even though Brent Crude Oil is doing close no nothing to stop that pain. Then the new issue erupts and I mentioned this yesterday. BRICS is no longer on the sidelines. It wants the western worlds to adjust their views and they now have the muscle to do that, with Saudi Arabia added they will also have the money to do that. I personally think that Saudi Arabia will have a close ally, as such the UAE might become a member too. So now you see how the words of Italy are too little and too late (see my article 2 days ago).
Then the think I mentioned a few times, as China gets the Saudi Defence spendings, the US will come up short and that bites as well and these are the biggest issues for the US, as such Iran is hardly a blip. OK, it is more but only when the world sees that when you are broke you cannot push for economic sanctions on Iran (Russia too) and it is already selling oil to India or Pakistan (not sure who) and China, so that marble is faltering nicely. Then there is Syria and the largest issue are the outstanding bonds that the US sold. I actually do not know how many the KSA or Kingdom Holdings have, but if they flood the markets they will lose money and it will be disaster for the US, who will run out of cash long before Q3 2024. Which means they are 1-2 quarters short, or perhaps better stated at the end of their wallets they need to survive another 2 quarters. Good luck with that idea in the US.
So when we see the Al Jazeera article and many others on why Blinky Tony is going to Riyadh, I feel certain that there is a lot more going on that w are being told. And I feel certain that it is not on the media. I feel that the White House administration will never admit to this Oliver Twist moment with “Can I have some more please?” No one would admit to that, it is just a little weird to see the entire BRICS setting a day early and now we get this.
And he has more on his plate. We get that with “attend Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) talks during his visit, starting on June 6”. I reckon that is when he will make mention of two variables (Iran and Syria). It is speculation, but that is what I (with no diplomatic knowledge) would do.
I reckon that this is one of the hardest times for the US State department ever. It did not help that it was this president who stated to make Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah. So how is that working out?
That was the setting and it is not a new setting. The BBC gives us (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65784030) ‘Brics ministers call for rebalancing of global order away from West’. This is not new to me. I made mentions even before I wrote ‘Brain drain, by design’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/11/17/brain-drain-by-design/) which was November 2022. So this is not new. I am not happy that Russia is in the mix and I did not consider Brazil in that mix. But India and China were. And even more, which we also see here with “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said “more than a dozen” countries including Saudi Arabia had expressed interest in joining the group”, which I saw coming a mile away. And I reckon that Saudi Arabia and China will then offer an inclusion to the UAE. It is now becoming a simple play that puts the US and the EU out of business. The UK still has its ties to India, as such it needs to play a very careful game to not be set aside, and it is possible that the UK will have some form of shelter, but the US is pretty much done for. It’s news cycle is all about avoiding defaulting from one point to another, and when that goes wrong it goes really wrong with the US and the EU, both Canada and the UK will feel that sting massively. Then as Japan goes Australia will be in similar dire conditions. A stage that was never speculative, anyone with a decent grasp of the abacus could work that out and the biggest trap they went for was to shut Saudi Arabia out, to let (according to their ego’s) it become a pariah. All for a journalist no one gave a fig about. More importantly there was never any evidence, that much was clear in that United Nations essay and they tried it again with that cyber report that involved Jeff Bezos. Now that new house, that domicile made from BRICS and its members will become the new world powers. As I said, the fact that it includes Russia is not my choice and I am not happy about it. And now that we see more and more business outsourcing to India, that stage will change even more. Those in doubt better get a clue, because if I see my tactics correctly, the BRICS union will set stations so that there is no more debt raising for the US. I am not sure how they will pull it off, but if any of the BRICS members now or new will sell their US bonds it will all stop right quick. We were that close to the edge and now that edge is crumbling. I might not be in time to sell my IP, but I do have an alternative and that setting is close. I will not get much, if anything, but I will get out with my skin decently intact, which is likely more than most others can say at that point.
So when we consider the BRICS members (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) a new setting comes and with that the largest ass kissing contest in the EU will start with vonder Leyen on her knees. After that whatever allies the US had will be running for the hills, any hill for that matter. The rich people will already have plans in place, they will have locations ready and they will watch from a massive distance with family and friends how the US implodes upon itself. I reckon that 2024 will be the least comfortable place on the planet to be at that point. Yes, people will call me crazy, people will say that I am causing a panic. Yet these facts were out there for anyone to see, you merely thought that the western media would give you the goods, something they haven’t done in close to a decade. I gave several clues out on several matters on how the media was giving you the runaround going all the way back to September 2012. But you all thought I was crazy. Well, when this situation becomes a reality, you get to see how crazy I was. Did you actually think that someone can have a $32,000,000,000,000 debt and no one comes to collect? I have seen people hide under beds because someone was ringing the doorbell for an outstanding $750. And the final parts was seen a few months ago when Saudi Arabia closed the door on ‘saving’ with a simple “The head of Credit Suisse Group’s largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank (SNB), said on Wednesday it would not buy more shares in the Swiss bank on regulatory grounds” Did you think it was going to be that simple? They lost lost more than $26,000,000,000 in market value. That was the setting I did not initially see, but when we see the larger stage we see that it was more then a loss. I reckon that whatever BRICS has in place, or is about to have in place. The US is now in deep water, they are up to their neck and someone is adding water to the equation. For China it will work out rather well. You see after the US falls, Japan is pretty much next in line with a debt of $9,300,000,000,000, or 1,343.4 % of their GDP. A debt that is 13 times their GDP, without the US that will pretty much strangle them over night and whomever had those bonds can end that economy right there, right quick.
Did you think they were all too big too fail?
A writer named Jenny Holzer wrote Truisms (1978-1983) gave us “Change is valuable because it lets the oppressed be tyrants.” I think we are about to see the impact of just how nasty that could end up being.
Could I be wrong? Of course I can be wrong, yet consider what is shown, and what was implicitly not shown. When you put those two together you get an image. Yes we can speculate that some are presenting a wannabe scenario. Yet two of these players (China and India) have the drive, the people and the will to push forward. Now add the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to the mix and you get a massive unsettling concoction that no one in the west wants to try and that is what we see now. The next debt ceiling is January 2025, which might sound nice, but if some of these bonds are set to market in 2024 the US will be in much deeper waters and this is not a secret either. I wrote about this (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/12/i-honestly-dont-get-it/) on March 12th with ‘I honestly don’t get it’ and even before that. Who will push? I have no idea, because I do not know where all the US bonds are and the media wasn’t too sharing, were they?
So you can look int this or consider moving to anywhere where this cesspool does not hit, which is another reason why I was eager to sell my IP to Saudi Arabia and the Kingdom Holding Co. I reckoned that a (starting) 5 billion annual revenue stream would appeal to them, apparently I was wrong there too. Will I be wrong again? Perhaps, but I have been correct a lot more times than I was wrong. As such I have a decent confidence in me being right.
That is at times the question. What I think does not matter, I can be opinionated. Yet that part is still part of the speculative side that I walk. Only those who are in power in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can actually state what is real. The rest including those think tanks are clueless. Well, think tanks have a deeper generic knowledge, as such it is no longer speculation, it is presumption. It is knowledge based on data and knowledge they have, it is more accurate than speculation, but how much more is depending on the political hands that they also feed.
As such Reuters gave us (at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-ends-yemen-linked-embargo-arms-sales-saudi-arabia-2023-05-31/) ‘Italy ends Yemen-linked embargo on arms sales to Saudi Arabia’ this is good for Italy and it will help the EU, but how much? That remains to be seen. This 11th hour turnaround might have som impact, but will it be enough. For it to matter the UK needed to come across months ago and they didn’t and now China has the bulk of the orders ready for consideration. Italy as such might get some, but will it be enough and there the setting of ‘too little too late’ comes into play. Even as they include the UAE, the setting was always going to be the massive billions that the KSA had to spend and even as we consider that the KSA expenditure reached $75 billion last year, most of it is now going towards China. A safe bet is 40%-50%, but I reckon that China stands to gain up to 70%, all that revenue lost to the US, UK and the EU. The losses for these three are likely THAT big. Mine is not presumption, I do not have certain access. It is speculation at best, but how wrong do you think I am? We saw the courting by Chinese officials in 2021 and 2022 and now that they have made their impact Italy is now ending its embargo with a nice “praising Saudi Arabia’s recent peace mediation efforts”? Who are they kidding? The UK handed their revenue to the tea grannies of the CAAT, well a lot of good that did, China just took over and now none of them have anything to tell anyone. Well CAAT can state that they kept their heads high, so when OPEC adheres to the need of Just stop oil and 250K barrels a day go to China instead of the UK, what will have been achieved? I can tell you, nothing. Nothing will have been achieved, but the quality of life in the UK will go down further.
We see now all kinds of changes and whilst the political arms give lame excuses all around us, the reality is that we opened our big mouths and there is a cost to that, but when the coffers are empty like most coffers in the US, the UK and most EU countries the cost of living will bite more and more. I tried to warn you all for at least three years and these options are all scuttled and they will not mature. So as Italy is making its step hoping there is some time left, I wonder if there was any time left. It is my speculative view that this is too little and it is way too late, but then my speculation could be wrong. You tell me, I honestly am not certain at present.
Enjoy the day, the day before the weekend is merely one day away.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 