Tag Archives: Eu

May 13, 2022 · 21:42

Restoring Redacted Recognisance

I have been in a bit of a trance, wondering on a few items that were nagging me, that is until I saw some flamboyant article. The article is a little too Simpson tainted to be taken seriously, but there was a grain of possibility there. My What if procedures started to crush the options. It did not make me happy, because for the most, I hate the ‘What If’ statement, it is something in second grade salespeople and telemarketers. As such I tend to avoid using it, but in this case there is almost no avoiding it. In a stage where there is an optional stage of revenue that could be anywhere between $400,000,000 and $17,500,000,000 the players Amazon and Google stay away? In the first it is more tailored to Amazon, but the stages include 5G, as such Google would be equally chomping at the bit.
Now the stage is about to move to Saudi Arabia, and I do not object. In two settings they have an advantage over the other two, but that is only in two of the settings. So I was puzzled, but then a few items from LA Times to UK papers hit me and the ‘What If’ setting came back. 

What If
So what if Google and Amazon just no longer have the manpower and the seniority to see what is about to escape them, it seemed so far fetched, but there was supporting evidence (of a sort) and there is no way in hell I would let Microsoft anywhere near it, I would accept a 35% payment from Saudi Arabia before I would consider a 175% from Microsoft, I am that disappointed and angry with them. And as I refocus towards Saudi Arabia I see a larger stage, one that could fir them taking a larger stake in either Amazon Luna or the Google Stadia, even as the Amazon Luna is a better fit, either will do and that solution alone should be worth well over $350,000,000, as such there is some benefit in having one buyer. Of course the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia might see that different, but that is not a given and as they get more options to diversification.

So we have an alternative stage, but the idea that the resources and brainpower of both Amazon and Google had dwindled to that degree is a little baffling. This has nothing to do with Covid. It has nothing to do with abilities. It dwindles down to two powerhouses, not taking a much better inventory of what is possible and letting it slip again and again until it is too late. Could that be the case? To be honest, I cannot tell, in the first because Sundar Pichai and Andy Jassy did not call me updating me on their HR woe’s and sorrows (and I never expect them to do that). So I am in the dark, but some others should not be and we have not heard from them have we? 

So what gives? Why would either player ignore that much revenue after getting hit to such a degree? It does not make sense, but that was before we see that they face a lot of grievance in the UK, EU and US. The Republicans are willing to slice Disney whilst destroying up to 60,000 small business owners with the attacks on Disney and their IP, Google has a few issues of their own to deal with, so a holding pattern is not the weirdest idea, but in this case revenue could go to China, Saudi Arabia and other players, how does that help any of them in the US, EU or UK? And that is before someone takes a hard look at Canada, with the top 10 of wealth being occupied by banks, but that is the hidden trap, without powerful businesses these banks will falter, time has shown that again and again, so what will be left when the redaction of recognisance is takin its toll? Restoration is the one path left, but that is a window with a limited timespan, I wonder if the UK and Canada realise that there is a point of no return and the US waited too long and now when there is a stage of restoration, the republican party is having a go at one of the most powerful IP holder in history, Disney. A setting that can have only one ending and it is not a good one, as such when Disney loses its protection, the cheap solution bringers in India and China will bring their options cheaper, not better but cheaper and all whilst well over 40,000 small business owners are left with nothing, because the IP kept their business safe and that is about to change, so when that happens and other resources do not grasp the business, what do you think will happen to that $25,000,000,000,000 debt? The interest alone will pull the entire US economy under with absolutely no options to restore any option to breathe. A setting I saw coming a mile away 5 years ago when there was an option, so when the US also losses its IP and more important the two powerhouses that create IP because they no longer have resources, what happens then? 

There is no what if setting here, we can just watch it unfold and I will be watching as well, because to be honest, I never expected these two players to have the IP resource lack they are currently showing. I honestly was caught be surprise (you see, it is possible to surprise me).

I wonder what Sunday brings, a hail Mary and a ZX Spectrum?

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May 5, 2022 · 00:36

Retail 101

One of the oldest rules of retail 101 is that you buy cheap and sell as high as possible, that is how you create profit. Add to that the simple rule that you spend less than you earn and that will make you rich on the side. These rules are not new, they were old when the crusades started (ca.1095). 

So when the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61188579) gives us ‘Oil prices have soared. Why won’t Opec bring them down?’ The setting of the American governmental license plate came to mind (Dee-You-Age). We get to see “Opec+ could also lower prices by putting more oil onto the market, which is what major importers like the US and UK want it to do.” Yes, and tarmac is made with liquorice. Opec+ has a good deal, there is a need for oil and they can set the price. The nations relying on oil have done pretty much ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to appease Saudi Arabia. We see the two largest suppliers (Russia and Saudi Arabia) but even though the US is not in that group, how much oil do they produce? 

And then we get “US President Joe Biden has repeatedly appealed to Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output, but to no avail. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also asked Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to increase production. He too was rebuffed.” In this the first part was that the US played a stupid game.

  1. A journalist no one gives a fuck about goes missing and for weeks the gossip and speculations start, even the United Nations get involved with shoddy documentation (as I personally see it). Realism tells us that something happened. Yet no one and I say again no one produced clear evidence. None gave any clear evidence of what had happened and Turkey who was playing the Iranian game made things worse. The United Nation document had issues, several players were not held to account, but that did not matter, they all got to attack the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
  2. The Houthi attacks and again the Iranian factor in this was openly ignored by the media. The non Arabic nations were not informed on houthi attacks with Iranian support on Saudi civilian targets. Coalition events were exaggerated, Houthi attacks were trivialised. 
  3. Saudi and SAMI needs were stopped and Saudi defence settings were halted. Now, the west can do that, they are allowed to. Yet in that, the Saudi’s have absolutely no need to increase production, do they? If the west was so clear on their needs, they would have increased non-oil options two decades ago, but that did not really happen, did it?

Three clear events that are now biting the hands of the US and the UK, Saudi Arabia is willing to look after its friends, but these two have not really shown to be friends, have they?

And in all this Russia is enjoying what is happening, because they do not have to do anything else but watch the cost of living in the US, UK and EU to rise to almost impossible levels. A stage we never wanted and perhaps those tea ladies from the CAAT are now in a stage where they can afford the tea, but they can no longer afford the cookies. There is an opposing side to almost everything and the simple truth of protesting without understanding what was going on is now taking its toll. But the CAAT had its limelight shots in the newspapers. It is lovely to see those pictures, just too bad that the price of that limelight ended up costing some people billions and under those conditions the UK can pretty much kiss their cheaper oil goodbye.

In all this, I wonder what the CIA did last month, what they offered the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, because the current administration has pretty much destroyed whatever options they had. As I see it, by the rules of Retail 101, the US has only one option, to open whatever weapon sales it can get without restrictions and with a full service package. I reckon that alone is required to lower the oil prices by 10%, they need a lot more, but as such the players will have to offer more and they need to realise that the loud words of ‘no oil’ and ‘end petrol needs’ were merely that, words. It will happen, there is no doubt in my mind, but I doubt I will be alive to see those days, I reckon kids who were born after 2000 will have a decent chance to see the end of a petrol based economy whilst they are still alive. I doubt that it will happen before that. In this, the entire stage of the BBC article was to some degree needed, but they should have given the people a slightly better information ring. Like the interactions of OPEC and airlines. You see over the last 15 years we added a total of 41000 additional flights a day, why? There is also a lack of the American numbers, how much oil do they produce and why can they not produce more? Two simple elements in this equation missing, why is that? 

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May 2, 2022 · 06:34

At times I hate being right

To get that we have to take a trip into the past. To February 5th 2021. It was the day I wrote ‘Not a good thing’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/02/05/not-a-good-thing/). In the article I wrote about the energy shortage that certain players were certain to face. I also made reference to ‘Trillion Dollar Musk’ a story written on December 3rd 2020 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/12/03/trillion-dollar-musk/). The important reference is “the UK has an increasing need for Scandinavian power and soon it cannot be met. I reckon that in the next 2-3 years that shortage will be close to systemic all over the EU”, with the added “now that the stage is here, Eon Musk has a massive opportunity and soon enough it will grow into Europe as well, I wonder who will cash in before the half baked solutions stir their ugly heads. Because the impact of that stage is not a good thing.” And now that we get the Dutch NOS making reference to “Companies that want to establish or expand, often cannot meet their energy needs. This applies, for example, to Royal Smilde Bakery in Edam, a retail company in bake-off products. The company cannot run at full capacity. “And that means we are not at the production capacity that the market demands,” says Andries Tuinenga. The grid operator has imposed a maximum on the company that may not be exceeded. And then the peak months are yet to come.” Now this setting comes early because of the Russian gas situation, but it gives a larger stage, the shortage is here now, consider the Netherlands going towards summer and if summer bites (a realistic chance) we see a nation with millions of AC units and no power to fuel them all. That is a realistic future this year and for two years they could have opted for discussions with Elon Musk and all his energy solutions but how many governments exactly have started this discussion? 

A stage I saw coming two years ago, so why isn’t anyone else? And the small laughable story by BBC Technology that gives us ‘Energy supplier counts cost of devices on standby’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-61235367) does not cut the mustard as I see it. Lets be clear, they are not wrong, but the setting is way too late for that. With the giggle moment supplied through “households would save around £55 per year by switching off all their devices when not in use. The organisation, which promotes sustainability and energy efficiency, did not give exact details of how it came to this figure.” I get it if everyone does that you do save, but at what cost? Larger changes have been needed for well over a year and the UK (EU too) are not ready. The age of ACDC is coming (hah, me making a funny yet again) and the saving will not operate the millions of households that want to enjoy the AC they have no matter how much DC it requires. I stated two years ago that energy changes were becoming essential, but it seems that governments has ego and ostrich issues. It seems that they all were willing to attack Elon Musk and too little of them would be ready to engage with him in serious conversation. Now that time is up they might all want him at the same time, as such it becomes a problem Anyway, should Elon Musk buy my IP, they get added hardship, because I can see that there are options (not big ones) to connect what I have to domotics and smart grids. So connect my IP to a smart grid and collect energy numbers from all the domotics around it. It is not what I had in mind, but it could work and the value of my IP goes up, so what do I care. 

The problem is that GOVERNMENTS should have been on this page in 2018, but are they? The fact that we see shortages now is not merely the impact of Russian choices, it was ALWAYS going to happen in this way, they merely got to this point faster in this way. So who will you blame? Will you have another go at Elon Musk, or will you start asking YOUR government for ignoring the painfully obvious for well over a year now?

I will let you decide. Have a really nice sunny not air-conditioned day today.

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April 18, 2022 · 23:02

800,000,000 failures and a home-run

This is what I faced today, but the two are not connected, well not directly, optionally even indirectly. They are connected by the smallest sliver of thought. To start, the first part comes from the BBC. The article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61080536) gives us ‘Sanctioned Russian oligarchs linked to £800m worth of UK property’, which sounds nice, but lets take a deeper look. We get “Some of the individuals deny ownership of the mansions, which may mean they are beyond the reach of the sanctions. To get to the bottom of who owns what, we carried out a detailed trawl of leaked offshore documents, the Land Registry and court papers – as well as previous reporting.” It comes down to the first part. There we see “Because of the system of secrecy here in the UK and in relation to the Overseas Dependencies it’s really easy for people to hide their assets and their funds in the UK and not even the police necessarily have sight of where those assets are,” these people are skating around the central issue ‘What they did was perfectly legal’ a setting of creating actual tax laws is at the heart of this and this is decades overdue. It should have started in the age of Gordon Brown (2007), there is a stage where we could agree that Tony Blair (1997-2007) should have started it, but the pressure was not on for the UK at that point, the meltdown in the US should have been a clear signal, but from 1997 onwards NOTHING was done to rewrite tax laws into the laws the UK needed to have in 2010, and now a decade later we see “To get to the bottom of who owns what” and there hiding behind the Panama Papers is jut a farce. This should have been adjusted in the EU, UK and US by 2010 but none of them did ANYTHING to clear the waters. They merely pretended to do so to appease political friends, they all did. And now when we see the laughingly weak “We are coming for your ill-begotten gains” this implies that laws were broken, so is he just incompetent, stupid or both? And this matters, because it is all linked. 

Roman Abramovich, has a vast property portfolio in the UK with more than 50 luxury residences, most on Fulham Road in west London. Through his UK company Fordstam Limited, he owns dozens of apartments in Chelsea Village, plus the hotel and residential complex around Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge stadium, according to the Land Registry. On Roman Abramovich we see “He has a vast property portfolio in the UK with more than 50 luxury residences, most on Fulham Road in west London. Through his UK company Fordstam Limited, he owns dozens of apartments in Chelsea Village, plus the hotel and residential complex around Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge stadium, according to the Land Registry. His most expensive London property is a 15-bedroom house on a street that is nicknamed Billionaires Row. With its vast stucco-faced Italianate mansions, it is home to royalty and ambassadors – as well as oligarchs.” The one element missing (two actually) were any laws broken? More important we see sanctioned by UK and EU, not the US. Then we get to the main event. It is Alisher Usmanov, sanctioned by all three and the desert of all this is more than a Medovik. We are given “a spokesman for Mr Usmanov said most of the billionaire’s UK property, plus a $600m (£456m) yacht, had already been “transferred into irrevocable trusts”, potentially putting them beyond the reach of sanctions.” A stage that is perfectly legal and the laws were never rewritten making this a sliding scale of discrimination, a scale of injustice and no laws were broken. The law makers were too stupid, too lazy to do anything about it. In the UK, the US and the EU. The lawmakers appeased THEIR friends as I personally see it and the oligarchs merely used the laws available to THEM TOO. A stage we need to accept and respect if we are a nation of laws. More important, which of these oligarchs ACTIVELY supported the war by Putin? I am asking, I actually do not know and the media merely surrounds itself with emotional BS, not a fact in sight and it is time to call these media players out on that too. The BBC article is actually quite good, but where do we see ‘Laws were broken’? We see “Ravenmorrow Limited was set up in December last year and no individual is identified on UK company records as the beneficial owner.” A clear failure of UK Laws, a setting where it was allowed to do this and no one is to blame but British Parliament and the House of Lords. The BBC does not really state that do they? As. I see it I see not the acts of Oligarchs, I see the failures of governments not overhauling tax laws when they could and as I see it all parties are guilty (except the greens), unlike the others the green parties all over the world seem to be oblivious on what a rudder is or does, so they are going Hades knows where at a speed no one can predict to arrive at some location no one knows.

Home-run
Yes, like the side we saw before there is another side and it makes more of a case towards the end of Microsoft, all whilst Adobe is getting more and more in place of taking over 25% of their office business. It is depending on two elements, and when these elements are out I will happily hand them over what I have if Google or Amazon buy the other IP and give me permission to hand that over to Adobe, I will gladly do that, just to see Microsoft squirm a little more. 5 markets lost to stupidity, 5 markets lost to shortsightedness and Adobe will be one of the winners. The setting that comes has been out for a while and the lost sides (four at present) are things that Microsoft should have seen years ago, their inaction is now more than enough. If you are asleep at the wheel you lose the ship, it is that simple and unlike the Ever Given, others are not in the Suez Canal, we can go around this Microsoft vessel and let it sink. A home-run out in the open and Microsoft just will not wake up, well let them sleep, I reckon that Adobe is more than ready to take over a chunk of the Office users. Consider that after all this time and all these follies, people do not merely gain a program, they gain a suite of options to tantalise their creativity. 

There is no telling where the creative people are going to end, but it will be ahead of where Microsoft hoped they would be, a lag that only intensifies the losses they will face. The setting reminded me of an article I saw in LinkedIn. 

There we see a person objecting to the discrimination of scouting. There we see “The announcer labelled the boy scouts as ‘Future leaders of America’ and the girls scouts as a group that were ‘just having fun’” This is what we see as a setting for Adobe and Microsoft. Adobe instills and propagates creativity, whilst Microsoft merely sets a mediocre foundation of presenting. Yet if there is one thing I have seen from Adobe, it is a clear stage where presenters can create works of art, whilst Microsoft sets a stage of mediocre joyous presentations, but in this day and age presentations are serious business, it sets the tone for corporate stories, sales events, propagating new projects and products. Joy gets us nowhere and Microsoft joy is close to a decade old. Adobe is on the verge of setting the next generation of presenting tools. So where do YOU wanna be when your idea is ready to be shown to the world? At the edge of what is possible, or in a joyous looking meadow, one that we have seen a million times over? I will let you decide on where you want to be and be honest, do you really think that Microsoft has any serious relevance left?

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April 18, 2022 · 06:04

Escalations

Things escalate, this happens and sometimes it is part of a plan, at times it is not. The Ukraine issues can only escalate. If Vladimir Putin states that it is up to the other side we can safely conclude that he is massively delusional. In between headlines like ‘Russia’s unspeakable horrors in northern Ukraine: Torture, murder and cluster bombs’, ‘Russia’s mass rapes in Ukraine are a war crime. Its military leaders must face prosecution’ and ‘Second British soldier captured in Mariupol is paraded on Russian TV’ we see little other path than the path of escalation. Of course there was good news too. 

As speculation goes, the Russian navy is just as dependable as Russian tanks. They are both equally effective in adhering to gravity and the Russian cruiser Moskva is giving testimony of that at the bottom of the Black Sea. The Slava class, Soviet designation Project 1164 Atlant, a class of guided missile cruisers designed and constructed in the Soviet Union for the Soviet Navy, and currently operated by the Russian Navy. Well there were two, now there is one, so 50% of their guided missile class has been destroyed. Is that what they mean with ‘Slava Ukraina’? 

Anyway, escalation. The Dutch are possibly restoring their active duty needs, and many nations are adhering to this as well. There is every thought that Russia woke up a setting they were not ready for and their Nuclear arsenal is all they might have between defeat and utter defeat. With all the Nazi claims they made, we see more and more that their actions represent the Nazi activities. So in the end, will we see a Nuremberg like trial in Strasbourg where the defendants will all respond in the same similar way? We will hear all of them state “Я выполнял приказы”, but in the end in Nuremberg 161 were convicted, and 37 were sentenced to death. I wonder how many Russians will end up with a death sentence. We see rape, torture, murder of civilians, we see the bombing of hospitals, the deployment of cluster bombs and the indiscriminate executions of people trying to flee the war-scene. The drones recorded a lot more than that and the Russians will face the rim reaper in many ways. That and the stage that life of a Russian outside of Russia (or Cuba) is now a thing of the past. These are all escalations that are happening now and will be happening more in the next month. Even now as Forbes is contemplating a G20 without Russia, we see the long term damage and that turns Russia in a 3rd world nation. It was going good and then it turned nearly every nation on the planet in another direction. You see commerce requires trade and how much trade can Syria, Belorussia and Cuba offer? That and the end of Gas-exports are making for a nasty treasury coffer and whilst Russia depends on its army, the hardware that army needs is sinking, destroyed or out of gas. Escalations can go in any direction, yet history shows us that most escalations go in the wrong direction and Russia is experiencing this the hard way. We sometimes forget WW1. My Grandfather was there and as such I keep tabs on that event. Does anyone remember the fallout of WW1? The Treaty of Versailles (signed in 1919) and the 1921 London Schedule of Payments set a massive bill for Germany after WW1, I reckon that Russia faces an even steeper bill on the damage they did to Ukraine. I reckon that 90% of al Russians will pay 20% taxes on their income for 30 years to Ukraine. That is the setting of escalation and that is the consequence of waging war, its invoice has always been the harshest message. And as I consider what might be next, we might see a new NATO, an EU army with France leading it, it is the most ready and the best equiped at present. A setting both the UK and Germany would not have held possible a year ago. What a difference 53 days can make. 

I wonder if older and very grey Vladimir Putin has any idea what is coming his way in the short term?

They say that confidence cannot escalate to arrogance, it only happens if the blood of pride is running through your veins. Knowing that picking a fight with Ukraine was not the best idea to have, but it seems he is learning that the hard way. You can doubt me and it would be fair, just ask the captain of the Moskva, he is in the Black Sea somewhere. 

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April 6, 2022 · 19:57

The three day delay

Yes, it is not new, I had my go on this a few times, yet due to what we see now, after three days, it is time to renew this event. It started basically in 2014, the Yemen war became something serious and the west had no idea how to react. They reacted poorly and to make matters worse, events driven by Iran was kept out of the news. The people got a one sided story. Over time weapons sales went stale, were blocked and the defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was a setting of debate by people who had no clue what was going on, because the ego trippers needed their Iran peace accord through a nuclear deal, something that even now is still not done. Matters became worse when the west decided to spin the events around Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018. So even as the press al invoked “By 16 November 2018, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had concluded that Mohammed bin Salman ordered Khashoggi’s assassination.” In this that the CIA stated that is was highly likely that this had happened, but no evidence was EVER brought to light. No evidence that could survive the rigours of academic investigations. The essay by the United Nations did not help any, that is for certain. Then we get the hack of Jeff Bezos, a disgracefully inadequate report by FTI Consulting. It is important to take notice of the Verge (at https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/23/21078828/report-saudi-arabia-hack-jeff-bezos-phone-fti-consulting) that also gives us “Facebook’s former chief security officer Alex Stamos, for example, said that there was “no smoking gun” in the report. Some researchers said that FTI should have been able to analyze the encrypted file that the crown prince sent Bezos which reportedly hacked his phone. And one said he didn’t see evidence in the report to suggest that Bezos’ phone was hacked.” I believe that Jeff got hacked, but there is no clear evidence WHO did the job, but there were some wannabe reporters that were really happy to blame the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. Even though several newspapers earlier that week showed that certain hacks allowed people to pretend they were someone else, and that too is missing from the FTI report. 

So we have all these negativity, projected on the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and now the US wants a favour? You have got to be shitting me!

So we get back to the article where we see “Why should America’s regional allies help Washington contain Russia in Europe when Washington is strengthening Russia and Iran in the Middle East?” And this is the larger folly, a stage where the wrong people cater to Iran, all whilst they require other stuff too, but you cannot get it both ways and now that China is stepping in gobbling up billions upon billions in sales and services, we see the US in a stage of denial. They now need cheap oil, all whilst the two largest suppliers are set to the mind that premium prices will do just as well. And I warned for these situations for years, but everyone was in denial. It would never come to that and now that it is coming to that, the US, the EU and others are in denial on what is required. So at present the oil prices are on the rise, just for how long is impossible to say, yet we also acknowledge that reserves are being used to stop the rise. Just how long until that stops? What do you think will happen when the reserves are gone, because most nations do not have that much in reserve. They can avoid the winter this year, but that will drain the reserves and even as they can build up some of those reserves during summer, winter 2022 will show to be the year that people will need to choose, be warm, avoid hunger and pay rent/mortgage and there is every consideration that many households will only be able to do one of the three, two if they are lucky. 

That is the direct impact of catering to the populist view, the price of adjusting one view for another, one deciding on what was likely, not what could be proven, ignoring what was proven (Iran attacks) and catering to something that is still not a reality (Iranian nuclear agreement) and Iran has clearly been catered to and now the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are telling you all that enough is enough. You want oil at a premium, you got it and at a premium means that within the next 12-15 weeks oil prices might get back to the $130 marker, at that point, how much will it cost you to get groceries, to get to work, to get home and to refuel? All that whilst these two nations are now looking at China to deliver defence systems. Slap upon slap upon slap and now 19 hours ago we were given ‘Iran Says U.S. Is Responsible for Stalled Talks on Reviving Nuclear Deal’, another fiasco and the involved political players are all in hiding as not to get painted with that fiasco. So when you wonder what happened to the oil prices, it is simple. Your government royally screwed up and gave you the bill for their failure. 

So good luck with that.

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March 16, 2022 · 09:31

A symphony in only two parts?

That is the question at times. We see two events, two articles and we forget that there are a dozen other connections. I am not different, at times I overlook them too, not always but frequently. It is a mix of a larger stage, more connections, more unregistered events. Yet for now we start with the first nail in the coffin of American economy. The article from Reuters (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-invites-chinas-xi-visit-wsj-2022-03-14/) gives us ‘Saudi Arabia invites China’s Xi to visit’, the article states that this could be as early as may. Right before the Midterms in November 2022 the US is now likely to face that dozens upon dozens of billions walk from the US side straight into the hands of China (and me missing out on commission, darn). Is this a given? No, of course not. There could be a dozen reasons why President Xi Jinping might be visiting. But how often has ANY Chinese president done that? And Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud is eager to set his defence and SAMI to higher values and I was clear in the two years that this was coming and as far as I can tell, President Biden has soured the waters enough for this to become a reality. Some focusses on weapons being sold, I say in THIS economy you should not ignore the nations Saudi Arabia, India, Egypt, who are the largest importers. In this stage where the US HELD 37% and China only 5.2% the stage is now set where China can progress a lot higher on that list and should they get the bulk of Saudi and SAMI attention there is a clear stage where the new numbers will represent (2023/2024) could state that the US hold 25% and China then could be holding 17.2%, it then places China right next to Russian exports and the US a lot more to that stage, a stage where it is now an almost fair fight between the US, Russia and China, but to be clear was that EVER an economic stage where you WANT a fair fight? A stage where China overtakes both France and Germany as supplier? This is the stage that could inhabit the Middle East and that is merely the beginning. You see the partnerships that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Egypt have also sets Egypt in the sights of China as a defence trade partner, a stage a few people overlooked and that drives Chinese export achievable needs up a lot more. So the damage to the US might increase over the coming year and those who want to be in denial, go right ahead, the article with ““The crown prince and Xi are close friends and both understand that there is huge potential for stronger ties,” the report quoted a Saudi official as saying. “It is not just ‘They buy oil from us and we buy weapons from them’.”” I like the part “It is not just ‘They buy oil from us and we buy weapons from them’” the best, it might not be merely just, for China that is a good deal in several ways and when that deal gives China more oil, it will mean that it gives the US less oil a stage they feared for some time and the oil market has been volatile on these fears alone. So when I was mentioning that whatever relief the oil prices give us today, tomorrow will be different and now we see that fear come to fruition, not immediately mind you, but the price of fuel will go up again and again, how high? I cannot tell but the stage where we saw the American administration make statements like “You can pump more oil, so pump more oil!”, it was nice but there is now every chance that the extra oil (plus a little more) goes to China. Will the UAE do the same? I cannot tell, but the US better become best buddies with Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Sheikh Mohammed ibn Rashid Al Maktoum, because if I see this right, the US will need every friend it can muster in their oil needs (a few others too) and in that need they better realise that catering to Iran will not merely be unrewarding, it will soon become dangerous on more than one field as well. I mentioned two years ago that yielding the Middle East to China would be one of the most dangerous things ever, and that was merely economically. Now we see one field exposed and the construction opportunities in Neom could also go towards China, a stage that makes the US (EU too) more and more irrelevant, a stage the US themselves threw upon their own economic needs. Now that it is becoming more and more realistic these people will not be allowed to cry with the “Why oh why” statement like little chihuahua’s. Or as my grandmother used to say “You do not bite the hand that feeds you” a practical lesson that the US will now face within the next 3 months and the 2 years that follow. A stage that the Biden Administration failed to spot in some stage of ignorance and now as we see it optionally unfold (it might be that President Xi Jinping is visiting to buy real estate in Neom) some might see the dangers that are coming the next year or so and the impact over the next decade. I merely loose out on commission (oh, poor poor me). 

 

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March 10, 2022 · 13:18

The next Furlong

Yes, that happens. We all look at races, we all enter horse racing (not betting I mean) and then we look as the wrecks stack up. This story goes back to 2019, I am certain I made mention before then. It was ‘The seventh guest’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/06/21/the-seventh-guest/) when I wrote “I would like to discuss the purchase of 20-30 Chengdu J-20 fighters. In light of both a first order discount, as well as a student discount (we are all students on the path of life), I believe that should the talks be successful, that 20-30 planes at a unit cost of $27.35 million (with rebates, discounts and commission applied), in addition the 2 years of full service with no regards to hours flown, mileage traveled or missiles fired. This is based on 2016 flyaway cost. The benefit is that these fighters will be directly engaging Iranian forces and as such you will have access to a massive amount of data enabling you to start on the 6th generation fighter, optionally making you the first country to have one. We would also be interested in the testing of the Xian H-20 prototype that is now nearing completion. If the specs are as they are claiming to be, it will help us in removing morale from Tehran and from the IRGC as a whole. In this the unofficial word is that the sky is the limit as regarding to the price of this place (my 2.17% commission still applies). My client is ready to upgrade several army based parts (both light and heavy guns), however I hope that this part can be tabled until Iran decides to attack directly, at which point Saudi Arabian boots on Iranian ground becomes a direct first”, and certain people laughed, the laughed loud and pointed at me. It would never come this far. And now we see (at https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1254377.shtml) ’FC-31 stealth fighter spearheads display of cutting-edge Chinese equipment at Saudi Arabia’s 1st World Defense Show’, there we see “The Chinese arms industry brought a wide selection of cutting-edge weapons and equipment, including the FC-31 stealth fighter jet, to the ongoing first edition of Saudi Arabia’s World Defense Show in Riyadh. China can provide finished advanced gear and also transfer technology that enables domestic development and production, analysts said on Tuesday.” And although I lose out on a commission of 3.75% (my life sucks), the stage I saw coming in 2019 is now becoming a harsh reality for the US and the EU. Not laughing now, are they? And it is not even the worst of the setting either. That is seen when we add ‘Saudi Arabia and UAE leaders ‘decline calls with Biden’ amid fears of oil price spike’ (at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/09/saudi-arabia-and-uae-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-amid-fears-of-oil-price-spike) the other part I discussed a few times over is coming to fruition (for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia), the entire US pariah setting on lack of EVIDENCE is a bed they themselves made. You can call the consumer names again and again, but realise that this person can shop somewhere else and can not deliver to you, ask any supermarket, ask any grocer, butcher or baker. And now these stations are coming out, China is sitting on the sidelines laughing loudly. And the entire issue in the EU is not helping any. All setting I saw YEARS ago and now it is out on the 20 yard line the US is trying to set some premise to avoid the setting that was clear in the open. So when we now see the US playing courtesan to whomever will supply cheap oil, what was the direct label for such a person? It was clear as day and I illuminated that danger years ago and the blog is ‘evidence’ that I did so. A station that could have been clearly avoided from the start and that I perhaps the biggest failure of all. If I can see it and I am not the most clever person around (around two IQ points below Alan Turing) so why did THEY not see this coming? The lack of long term vision is staggering and the need for “also transfer technology that enables domestic development and production” implies that the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud implies that he is now on track with the promise towards 50% in house manufacturing via SAMI (Saudi Arabian Military Industries), so the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia gets even with the people playing with them, these players are massively losing out on revenue (me on commission, darn) and these players are now in a much worse position all whilst China becomes the top dog yielding the bone the EU and US are basically fighting over. 

As such we now see how much a failure (for the US especially) Davos in the desert 2019 was. So whilst some state it was a ‘shameless return of business and government leaders to Saudi Arabia’, we can now clearly see that it is about to become a massive trove of revenue that could pass the US and EU by on a few levels and they did this themselves. It was not unforeseen and as such I wonder what the next stupid act we see coming from the US and EU? Contemplating larger concession towards Venezuela and Iran? I cannot speak on the Venezuelan side, I know too little, but the concessions towards Iran will upset both the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the State of Israel even more. And both could optionally sour the milk for both the EU and US for any 5G they hope to set in Egypt. Another place of revenue loss, was that not clear to these people?

As such I wonder how the next furlong will play out, because in the end the US and the EU are in a series of horse races. One race is defence spending, another is telecom spending and then there are still the infrastructure and manufacturing races on the schedule. All now with both the US and EU degraded to second or even third choice, because whatever you think the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia needs to do, it needs to do what is best for the kingdom and that leaves Russia as a contender (for now). Several races with less than optimal choices and it could have been avoided to a much larger degree. Do not take my word, investigate and form your own opinion, but as I see it it soon becomes another stage where I get to say ‘Told you so!’

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March 3, 2022 · 02:49

Coming from simpler times

I have been thinking of the simple time, the past, the adherence to simplicity that is within all of us. It is the time before the Romans (original Italians). It was the Greek setting of life. We worked for the glory of Zeus, Poseidon and Hades. I reckon I would work for the glory of Hades, not because the others were not worthy, it would be that Hades seemed more real than the others. We are all confronted with our mortality, as such we would move towards the realm for Hades and it would be up to him if I serve him in the afterlife, or if I was destined for another place. And I would not be alone, 5000-3000 years ago many would be like me. If it was the greens versus the blues, I reckon I would be a blue. But overall the setting would be similar. Now we move to recently (1941), if any non-German would openly side with Adolf Hitler, if anyone would opt to not vote actions against Adolf Hitler, the populous (populism) would find that person and string him up  at the nearest tree. There are at times actions that are completely unacceptable and the Russians did that by cluster bombing CIVILIAN targets. And still they are malnourished, their equipment breaks down at the earliest notion and I see all levels of inactions. Just like Syria, just like Yemen and other places. Inaction for a reason that makes no sense. As such can anyone explain this list?

This is not right versus wrong, this is not communism versus the other side, this is acceptable versus unacceptable and the Russian actions have been unacceptable. People will state that I was in favour of Putin, I never stated this, I never was. Read the articles. I thought it was a stupid move to push politics into sports, sports and politics need to remain separated, it always does for all kinds of reasons, but in the first to stop sports to become the stepping stone for politics. I always oppose stupidity and the west has shown to adhere to greed over common sense (aka greed driven stupidity) too often. Consider the stage (as I see it), a nation (Ukraine) elects an entertainer (a clown) as the president of the Ukraine. We see the people laugh, giggle and I giggled too. I had nothing against the man, he was democratically elected and I am fine with that. In the time he put his positive marker on the Ukraine. I took little notice because the Ukraine is on the other side of the planet and I personally do not know too many people from there.
I am familiar with Alexei Ponikarovsky (Maple Leafs),  Dmytro Tolkunov (Ramparts) and a few others. But I know little of the Ukraine. Now as escalations have come to THEIR towns, I learn a lot more about the governments around me and their initial inactions and after that sending stuff (military and non military) all whilst civilian organisations take intelligence to a greater level (Trollrensics), all whilst the stage evolves we see their people take effort and the Dutch Nieuwsuur seemingly (according to what I have) cancelling what these people had to tell them. A person who translates, knows the places that are hit and the people that are there and the media turns away? That is what our sophistication brought, inactions towards what some call a tyrant. I am on the fence on that term, but there is an upside. Russia is 28 times the size of the Ukraine, there is more and I can list them, but I found a nice image that does it easier. 

And that image should tell you something about karma too. When the military power in 21st place can hold back the military power in 2nd place for a week, what does that tell you about the spending of the second best and the impact it has had on its population for decades? Also there are voices that are telling me that the FSB is opposing this war, how wrong was acting against the Ukraine from the very first minute?

And whilst I stop myself from posturing, taking the comedian side, I can tell you that Bette Midler stated (tweeted) it the best.

Consider where you stand, consider who you allow to represent your voice, I really hope it is not one of the earlier names seen, because in that case you are in deep trouble, because no matter how this ends, there will be a reckoning, it is the populist approach and it is bout to be turned against those relying on the populist voice to advance their political strategies. What comes around really comes around this time around. 

So for the glory of Hades, all hail the Comedian.

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February 26, 2022 · 23:19

I had to take this one

I was alerted to an article in the BBC, the article was about 10 hours old and gives us (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60499391) in the headline, but only once and it does not replicate.

You see the setting of ‘Putin saw America has become weak under Biden’ is wrong, it did not become weak, it was weak and has been for some time. Getting a bully to talk loud does not make America less weak. The American inactions regarding: 

  • Chemical attack Homs Syria 2012
  • Chemical Attack Douma Syria 2018
  • Houthi terrorist attacks Yemen 2014-2022
  • Ukraine under Russian attack 2022

As you can see, Americans are all talk and lack actions. It is not because they do not want to act, it is because they can no longer act. A debt surpassing $30,000,000,000,000 is making sure that this cannot happen, the US has become nothing more than a paper tiger. And let’s be clear, this is not merely the US, the EU is in a similar state. How I went to school and heard these preaches and stories, that if there was ever a chemical attack, the nations would unite against the attackers. In 2012 we saw the reality of what was preached for decades, they merely united and scolded the transgressor making very sure that words like ‘seemingly’ and ‘alleged’ were everywhere in that text. We saw a repetition, with the western media not reporting on Iranian involvement and remaining silent on Houthi attacks on civilian targets, the United Nations added to this by calling out one party and not the other one (Iran). The complete view on the uselessness of western politics set in action.

So when we get ‘told’ the simplicity of “America has become weak under Biden”, it did not, it was weak and will become weaker still. It is the order of things when your credit card is telling you to stay at home whilst the neighbours house is on fire and you cannot afford to buy a bucket. You do not want to let the neighbour know that you cannot afford a bucket, so you set in motion talks, but the neighbour does not want to talk, HIS HOUSE IS ON FIRE! 

/so when Al Jazeera reports ‘New sanctions come as Yemeni rebels ramped up attacks against Saudi Arabia and the UAE in recent weeks’ (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/23/us-issues-new-sanctions-on-alleged-houthi-financing-network) 3 days ago, my response is that the US gets a functional navy that can stop smugglers, so far I have seen less than 3 successes over a time of 6 years (at least) and we see how the US Navy seemingly cannot stop anything. That is not their fault (I think) and there could be half a doze reasons, but let’s be clear, the western media to a much larger degree is silencing that part all over the place. And we can shelter on the setting that no one cares about Syria and Yemen, but the Ukraine is too close to home (for the EU) and now we get to see the blame game, we get to see the opposite side, just like the US and EU were silencing any issue on Iran, we now see ‘China refuses to call Russia’s move on Ukraine an invasion’ (source: Australian Financial Review). So how does that feel? The blunt question is ‘Why would China care about Ukraine?’, Why would China push for a setting that it does not need to do? I do not think it is right, I merely think it is as it is. 

We need to accept that inaction comes with consequences and a consequence now is that Russia wants EU expansionism stopped and Russia took the step it felt it could take and that sucks for the Ukraine, but the inactions of the EU and the US (economic sanctions are not real actions), and I am proven right in another BBC article where we saw yesterday “Ukraine isn’t in America’s neighbourhood. It is not located on the US border. Nor does it host a US military base. It does not have strategic oil reserves, and it’s not a major trade partner”, it was the sad truth for Syria, for Yemen and now for the Ukraine. It is what the US calls policy and that is their take on it, it doesn’t make any president weak, but as I see it, when you need to set a filter to that degree, it also implies that you are no longer a superpower, especially if you cater to Iran who allegedly is now (or will be soon) enriching Uranium to 20%, so when this escalates in the state of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, will it still a stage of inaction? I reckon so, the debt will remain for decades giving China and Russia an almost uncensored way to change the political map all over the Far East and the Middle East. Now there will be people who do not agree, and that is fair. I would merely like to point out that the past has proven me right and the present is merely continuing the stage that I am still not wrong. 

Europe is in danger of a lot more than you think and it seems that in this case the US is not playing the game to the harder degree, they seemingly no longer can.

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