Tag Archives: USA

August 21, 2024 · 21:05

The 9mm hard drive

This is a new side to some, the people know one side to any person and at some point that person reveals another side. This is whaat we see (at https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/how-ukraine-war-has-turned-ex-google-ceo-eric-schmidt-into-licensed-arms-dealer-6372469) and the title ‘How Ukraine War Has Turned Ex Google CEO Into “Licensed Arms Dealer”’ now some will all up in arms (to turn a phrase), but the story is a lot more interesting. We are given “Mr Schmidt said that he is now a licensed arms dealer “because of the way the system works”” there is more to this. You see at some point I had the idea to sell the idea of the Chengdu J-20 to Saudi Arabia (for China), it was merely a thought and my ideas are not merely as noble as it might seem. My simple idea was that Saudi Arabia should be able to defend itself from the aggressors (Iran and Houthi forces in Yemen). When America and Europe wanted to halt the defending options for Saudi Arabia. I saw a simple economic option. The defense budget for Saudi Arabia goes into the dozens of billions (all 127 of them)  and me getting a mere 0.1% of that gets me 127 million dollars, simple clean and a nice setting to make really strong friends in the Middle East. This was before the idea I designed, optionally for Kingdom Holding. And lets face it 127 million makes for a nice retirement package. Eric Schmidt has other reasons (he was already rich enough). He and Sebastian Thrun, CEO of Udacity, are making a new venture namely White Stork. The setting we are given is “The idea basically is to do two things- use AI in complicated, powerful ways for these essentially robotic wars and the second one is to lower the cost of robots,” I see an adaptation to the learning (read: Deeper Machine Learning and LLM’s) that Palantir currently has. I think that a union of the two has far reaching possibilities. So what if the Palantir deployed systems are directly updated by drone systems? We are also given “Mr Schmidt reportedly informed that White Stork will mass-produce drones equipped with Artificial Intelligence to identify targets to eliminate the need for ground battles with tanks, artillery and mortar.” I think it goes further (read: presumed) You see, you can set the cost down but the military are more interested in keeping the timeline as short as possible.

Screenshot

You will have seen this, or something like this before. You have three components, the green ones are low in cost, the red ones high in cost. You want them all to be in the red, but the stage is set that you can only have two, the third one should always be in the other field. As people chase to get high quality and fast systems, that solution will always be an expensive item. Armies are not interested in (to some degree) cheap solutions. Not as long as these solutions are fast and high quality. Now White stork is going to seek fast systems and in robotics this will mean integration of information systems, like robotic intelligence systems that can connect to a secure cloud solution, updating the cloud instantaneously by all systems all at the same time. It become (for the lack of a better term) intelligence by wire. Nations will fork over billions to get it and to that degree no one has this. Not the US (DARPA apparently has some developing stage), not Russia and not China. They all have some kind of wannabe status, but they lack a high tech captain of industry like Eric Schmidt. If I can see this correctly within a few years they would all want him White Stork could be worth a whole lot more than anyone ever thought it could be and I think getting this connected to a system like Palantir is close to the only solution out there and the people at the centre of that axial know this. As I see it the biggest bottleneck in the short term will be an evolved non-repudiation system. We can cyber strike as much as we can but that first defence is a non-repudiation system to ward of attacks and that is where Palantir optionally has the system to make it work. Not for one or two systems, but like 200 drones in different campaigns  all at the same time. These systems need more than a simple deeper machine language, it needs LLM learnings and advance machine learning. With cyber systems that cab keep track of it all. This is not a simple solution but a person like Eric Schmidt could keep track of what was needed he might not be alone, but he is the only one in the stage of these arms of technology. 

His wealth might soon equal that of Bill Gates, the arms industry will pay heavily to get this far ahead. Consider that Saudi Arabia increased its military spending by 50 percent to $69 billion in 2023, approximately 23 percent of its total budget. That is to merely get on par with the America, Russia and China. How much do you think these three would pay to get ahead of the other two? The US is requesting $849.8 billion for next year. With White Stork they could easily double that amount. It is that much money that is in the view of some. 

Just my two cents on the matter. Have a great day.

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August 10, 2024 · 13:06

A little late aren’t you?

It was the setting I was waiting for. The US has given in to its economic pressures and possibly the fear that China might get to much of a headway. Reuters this morning gives me (and other readers) at https://www.reuters.com/world/us-lift-ban-offensive-weapons-sales-saudi-arabia-sources-say-2024-08-09/ the headline ‘US to lift ban on offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia’, which sounds nice but is possibly a little late. Colonel Turki Al-Maliki a member of the Saudi airforce had given us the goods, going all the way back to February 2021. Reuters reported on these attacks in March 2021. In this Reuters is important as they give us ‘Houthis have fired 430 missiles, 851 drones at Saudi Arabia since 2015 – Saudi-led coalition’, the setting is important because civilian targets were aimed at by Houthis amongst them were Saudi airports and structures. So the blockage by the US was weird, especially as the Houthis are a terrorist organisation. So the about turn under the guise of “The Saudis have met their end of the deal, and we are prepared to meet ours”, a little late, isn’t it? But at present the Chinese representatives of parties like the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group is nothing to be sneered at, with the Chengdu J-20 as an optional buy which was (allegedly) discussed at the World Defense Show 2024 in February 2024 (a speculation from me) is giving the Chinese hope to gain much more from the American Defence Industry. Should the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia take that offer, the setting would open the doors (for China) to larger possibilities in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates as well. The damage to the American Industry could amount to an estimated loss of $30-$50 billion over these three nations alone. Not to mention the lucrative service and consultancy jobs. It would be the first definite slam to the value of the US dollar. China is rearing to take up that option in a heartbeat. I discussed (and partially speculated) this in ‘The next Furlong’ which I wrote on March 10th 2022 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/10/the-next-furlong/), as such I was and am now in a stage to emphasise the term ‘told you so’. This setting was clear then and it is a speculated more clear now when we see “Under U.S. law, major international weapons deals must be reviewed by members of Congress before they are made final. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years, citing issues including the toll on civilians of its campaign in Yemen and a range of human rights concerns.” We are about to go into election mode and some politicians will fear for their job a lot more than the American Economy. As such China has a decent chance to crush the American Defence industry. I doubt they fear the Russian abilities as the Russians are getting clobbered by the 20th largest army in the world. The Ukrainians are still damaging the Russian, even after the Russians bombed Ukraine into the stone age. That is not a good sales talk, especially  with the current Russian losses stated below

As such we can accept the Reuters statement, because of its projected validity, yet the words we are given “Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years”, yet the article doesn’t emphasise the attacks by Houthi’s on Saudi civilian targets, which Colonel Turki Al-Maliki showed many clearly going all the way back to 2021, many articles were drowned out by (speculatively speaking) by anti Muslim and anti Saudi voices. Now that China gets to move into a much stronger position, the American administration is taking the gloves off and do what needed to be done in 2021. I reckon that people like Stephanie Kirchgaessner will possibly raise anonymous sources to throw sand in the cogs of common sense. China will love this as this will enable them to get a squadron on Chengdu J-20 into place and optionally ‘gift’ three service teams in the mix, two for maintenance and one to train  Saudi troops. The losses to America will be vast and it will a long term loss. 

As such I think that they were over 2 years late to the party. The initial transfer settings were optionally carved (I have no clear evidence of this) in the airshows of 2021 by SAMI. That would have been the first introductions of Chinese hardware that was to replace whatever America wasn’t giving them at that time. As I personally see it, it might be too late now. You see the Russian losses as shown above are the second piece of evidence. In that setting Russia is no longer a contender and as they are now ‘acquiring’ missiles from North Korea we see a larger question mark, is it merely the lack of missiles or does Russia have a larger problem. I do not know, but Russia isn’t telling, so we are left to our speculations and the Kursk clambake of 2024 Makes things worse for Russia. And in that setting China gets to be the big winner. OK, I admit, this victory would be largely held by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (and supporting parties).

Have a nice day and feel free to watch American revenues move to the far east.

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August 8, 2024 · 16:00

The added flavour

I was daydreaming and all of a sudden a thought came to me. A thought that I could add too Engonos, not now, hence I write elements here. I am still working on Residuam Vitam and that might take some time. I am still in Season 2 of Engonos even though the main lines until season 3 are in my head. You see, I thought on a vengeance streak. Hades is as strict as they come and in Season two Engonos get waves of that sternness overwhelming him. This is where I have a few issues. You see in a video game in the 80’s or 90’s (on the CBM64 or CBM Amiga) I was introduced to the Hand of Glory. Later I looked it up and it came from 1722 a Freemason (i think) called Petit Albert had referred to it. 

So in ‘my’ version the Engonos is betrayed by a con-artist and even though he did everything according to the rules (because the con-man had the bank and police assisting him). He loses his new apartment in Toronto. This gets me too: “never call for more demons than you can put down”.

And as such Engonos needs to reset his wealth but now raging in anger he does something no one thought possible. He harvests the souls and the organs of their children. The souls for himself and the organs to sell on the black market. Within a week everyone is in panic. They do not know where to look and they do not know where to find the children. In the mean time Engonos is gaining wealth. Within a month children are gone ad the perpetrators of the swindle are dead. The dead are harvested for hands of glory (which are really well received by other criminals). At some point someone finds a missing clue (haven’t worked that one out yet) and the police as well as organised crimes are looking out for him. He has however skipped a few places and with some countries with their banking laws in place Engonos has quadrupled the wealth he had and he moved his house to Jeddah as well as his apartment in London. 

The in-between bit like the harvesting of organs need a little more work in my mind and also setting the case of harvesting the body parts and elements of making the human candles for the hands require some more work in my mind. The idea that came to me was that with al the riots and looting in the UK and the USA, a stage where these people could be scared to near death might be worth exploring. Hades is not evil, but in his strictness lawbreaker and thieves have no right in his vision. That would be worth exploring and the thousands of shopkeepers that have been hurt by these looters could watch a bit of TV rejoicing that there is a reality where they do not get to escape their toll.

It still needs more work, but I got this inside of two hours and I have more to add later on. A solid ‘side-quest’ to season 2. London had over 1100 victims (mostly small businesses) in Los Angeles it was a lot worse due to “under Proposition 47 (2014) as entering a commercial establishment with intent to steal property valued at less than $950 during business hours—failed to reveal evidence of increases until 2022, when the state saw a 28.7% jump from the unusually low rates of the pandemic years. Even after this sizeable increase, the shoplifting rate in California remains 8% below its pre-pandemic level” by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) gives a rather large chunk of ideas especially as Engonos has a residence in Los Angeles as well. There 1,500 could go amiss and no one would care. Ideas on how to create a slaughter fest.

Perhaps I can get a lot more out of this over season 2. 

Well, that’s it for me (for now). Perhaps I will get lucky and dream some more.

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August 6, 2024 · 12:12

The loser iteration

Two days ago I wrote (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/08/04/the-judge-shouldnt/) with the headline ‘The judge shouldn’t’, it was part speculative and part what I see (again through my eyes it could be regarded as speculative). Today a mere 4 hours ago we get through the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0k44x6mge3o) ‘Google’s online search monopoly is illegal, US judge rules’. We are also given “Google was sued by the US Department of Justice in 2020 over its control of about 90% of the online search market.”, so lets take a look back. It started in 1995 and the ‘idea’ was completed in 1997. To turn about the setting in those days Microsoft was merely badgering their lack of knowledge and lam Netscape to get a browser dominance. Two youthful young sprouts namely Larry Page and Sergei Brin were ahead of the pack by a lot. They looked to a solution to search for text in publicly accessible documents offered by web servers, as opposed to other data. Microsoft was still trying to type words like HTTP and the clever people at Microsoft were able to type FTP. In the age of information the Google founders figured a few things out like ‘What are people trying to find’ this was against the grain for Microsoft who thought that corporations were the key and they went to ‘What are corporations willing to pay for’. The subtle difference is that Microsoft was working towards a slice of the $18,843,980,000,000 revenue that the fortune 500 represent. Google on the other hand decided to cater to its 31,000,000 employees. As such one could (oversimplified) cater to the simple fact that it would take Microsoft 9 million years to get as much data as Google. I do emphasis the oversimplification of this. I was not on the mindset of Google at first. You see I was a dedicated Yahoo user. It took 3 years until I saw that Google offered more and better result. As such in 3 years they gained a dominance. They surpassed Yahoo, Excite, Alta Vista and several other players. We can argue that it helped that Microsoft demolished Netscape. And in the decade that followed Google grew in strength and ability to cater to actual users not the CFO’s of 500 corporations. 

So when we see “It is one of several lawsuits that have been filed against the big tech companies as US antitrust authorities attempt to strengthen competition in the industry.” I believe that there is another ploy in play. The mediocrity losers (like Microsoft) want a slice of the cake they have no business being in. It isn’t just the ‘competition’ it is a reversal of technology that is in play. And in that setting the US is damaging the little benefit they have and leaving it all to China and true Chinese innovators like Huawei and Tencent. I reckon that by 2026 the mobile market will be overrun with Huawei in almost every non-americano place. They threw away the benefits when they forced Huawei to release HarmonyOS 5 years ago. 

Now we see that it is available in 77 languages and the turnover (as is) is getting stronger. Even now as EU nations are discarding the fear mongering of anti-China sentiment by American administration, and the strongest response that the EU nations give is ‘Show us evidence’, America has no answer to that other than debatable setting of ‘could’ and ‘expected’ whilst the evidence just isn’t there. And as we see an optional release this year of HarmonyOS NEXT, Android’s bough get broken on their sibling turning adult. So good luck with that.

Now we see a Judge giving us that there is a monopoly setting. I am not debating that (a lack of evidence I have), but the setting that we get from ““Google is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly,” Judge Mehta wrote in his 277-page opinion” as I see it, the maintenance of a unique field dominance is begotten by the lack of innovation by people like Microsoft who is spreading itself way too thin.  As evidence I ‘present’ Xbox, Solarwinds, CrowdStrike and the list goes on. You see ‘breaking up’ is merely a first step. They will then open the door and the abusive bully (Microsoft) will gleefully shout “Can I play here too?” With a debilitating browser called ‘Edge’. How is that progress? Don’t get me wrong if there is a decent player that can keep up with Google, even Google will applaud that. My worry is that the ideological setting of letting everyone in the sandbox play is all fine, but there is a reason that mothers do not allow toddlers in a sandbox until they reach a certain age. And bar them from playing when they get too old. The worry that I have is that this setting stops Google from evolving beyond the cookie (which is fine by the exploitative advertisers). The setting of other people’s greed who cannot evolve into newer territories. This could now allow Huawei and Tencent to gain even more innovative sides to push into markets where American stage are auto rejected. Tencent is on the cliffhanger to introduce their solution to 150,000,000 homes and they can get there by 2027. 

This will leave Microsoft in a stage where it has no options and no future. As these Fortune 500 will find ways to rise to new frontiers we will see them seeking IBM and Amazon solutions catering a larger downfall of Microsoft. In that stage there is certain a decent amount of space for Google. As they will hand a corporate solution to their ‘office’ suite Microsoft will lose more grounds. The only thing that keeps them up for some time is Excel. But the world is changing what was once a spreadsheet world now becomes an AWS environment and Google can cater there too. I do think that Googles forced push to breaking up is not a great solution, but Google has overcome harder challenges. 

This and my previous article ‘The judge shouldn’t’ gives us the premise that the Antitrust laws are possibly a little obsolete. Microsoft sees this as their ticket in and it is willing to cater to this as it hurts Apple and Google. Two parts the US desperately needs to work at optimum to stop themselves of being overrun by Chinese innovators. You see 7 years ago ByteDance introduced TikTok (not a Peter Pan crocodile). In 7 years it became a near equal of YouTube that was in play 12 years longer. Now I get that YouTube paved the was, but that is the usual tracks for New innovators, they go over the backs from those who went before. Now consider that and the fact that HarmonyOS is about to go toe to toe with Android in only 4 years. That is what I wrong. Not that we think about antitrust. I partially agree with antitrust sentiments. But we need to see that the greed driven use it to keep up, or not to lose their revenue. But that was never the concern of Google (or Apple for that matter). As I see it in the last decade the face of technology was set by Amazon (AWS), Apple (MacWares), Google (Android, G-wares) and IBM (large solutions and Quantum) they create the innovations, players like Microsoft should go under and seek revenue from the Fortune 500. They were the bees knees weren’t they? 

But as I see it, US District Judge Amit Mehta is allowed by law to hand it all over to Chinese innovators. When the EU, Commonwealth nations, Africa and Asia allow these innovator into their governments America becomes a party of one (with 330 million consumers). So consider that the other regions has over 7,500 million people. As I see it it is a hard lesson that America learns twice. Wasn’t the Google premise of 1997 not enough?

Enjoy your day and ponder what benefit was to be had from optionally breaking up Google and who were the actual beneficiaries (not the consumers clearly).

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July 26, 2024 · 04:42

The misaligned cogs

This is a little hard. I just read an article on the Military hacks by North Korea, it doesn’t fit. Let me explain with a little time line.

2012
The Dutch had a press tour in North Korea. The Koreans confiscated temporary their camera’s and the Dutch were howling with laughter, they still had their iPhones and Android equivalents. They kept on filming. The Korean officers had no idea what a smartphone was, as such the Dutch had all the footage.

2014
Sony get hacked and soon thereafter we get all kinds of ‘leaked’ information. In addition within a year (I have no specific date) we get an amalgamated

The FBI later clarified more details of the attacks, attributing them to North Korea by noting that the hackers were “sloppy” with the use of proxy IP addresses that originated from within North Korea. At one point the hackers logged into the Guardians of Peace Facebook account and Sony’s servers without effective concealment. FBI Director James Comey stated that Internet access is tightly controlled within North Korea, and as such, it was unlikely that a third party had hijacked these addresses without allowance from the North Korean government. The National Security Agency assisted the FBI in analysing the attack, specifically in reviewing the malware and tracing its origins; NSA director Admiral Michael S. Rogers agreed with the FBI that the attack originated from North Korea. A disclosed NSA report published by Der Spiegel stated that the agency had become aware of the origins of the hack due to their own cyber-intrusion on North Korea’s network that they had set up in 2010, following concerns of the technology maturation of the country.

The sources were the New York Times, Times magazine, The verge and CNBC. I had issues with the release of information, but my issues were speculative and based on the Dutch field trip to Korea

2017
In ‘The Good, the Bad, and North Korea’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/09/30/the-good-the-bad-and-north-korea/) I wrote “I got this photo from a CNN source, so the actual age was unknown, yet look at the background, the sheer antiquity that this desktop system represents. In a place where the President of North Korea should be surrounded by high end technology, we see a system that seems to look like an antiquated Lenovo system, unable to properly play games from the previous gaming generation, and that is their high technology?” This is my second opposition. Between 2012 and 2017 they had apparently gained the ability to produce their own smartphone. This is realistic.

2024
Now we get “North Korean hackers have conducted a global cyber espionage campaign to try to steal classified military secrets to support Pyongyang’s banned nuclear weapons programme, the United States, Britain and South Korea said in a joint advisory on Thursday.

The hackers, dubbed Anadriel or APT45 by cybersecurity researchers, have targeted or breached computer systems at a broad variety of defence or engineering firms, including manufacturers of tanks, submarines, naval vessels, fighter aircraft, and missile and radar systems, the advisory said” (at https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korean-hackers-are-stealing-military-secrets-us-allies-say-2024-07-25/).

My issue (still speculation) is two fold. In the first we get to se that the Sony Hack was apparently not North Korea, but the Guardians of peace (the Lazarus group). We see references to “links to” and a small byte that they are “Originally a criminal group”. It is my speculation that these criminal ‘masterminds’ are either Russian or Chinese. They cater to North Korea as it allows them to act freely and I would expect them to share whatever intel they get with North Korea.

Even if these formerly known criminals were behind this setting, the whole picture doesn’t add up. I reckon that we all work at our own speed, however when we see Reuters give us “one elite group of North Korean hackers had successfully breached systems at NPO Mashinostroyeniya, a rocket design bureau based in Reutov, a small town on the outskirts of Moscow.” I do not debunk that setting, but over the timeline I have seen (many might have seen it), it is possible that this last statement is a smokescreen. Was it breached or were the Russians willing to hand over that ‘victory’ to make them sound more of a threat? In addition when we see “The hackers, dubbed Anadriel or APT45 by cybersecurity researchers, have targeted or breached computer systems at a broad variety of defence or engineering firms, including manufacturers of tanks, submarines, naval vessels, fighter aircraft, and missile and radar systems” I mostly worry about the state of cyber security at our own shores. That they get breached by China or Russia is understandable, They are on par in technology with us. North Korea is not. It is like a hacker with an 80282 AT computer, a processor from 1982 coming up to a server with a Xeon processor stating ‘gimme your data’ It is like a swimmer slamming a great white shark with a BB gun. Utterly ineffective. That is merely the hardware, These hackers would have lacked at least a decade of hacking skills. The NSA and GCHQ would be running circles around them. No, I believe that this is another player making North Korea their patsy. 

Now consider that all (or some) of my speculations are wrong. I get that, this is realistically possible, we still get the stage that the time line doesn’t fit. It is like going from an Apricot PC, to an IBM Q System One in a little over 7 years, without the required resources mind you. The other, more realistic, option is that defence and engineering firms have made a booboo and failed their cyber security requirements and now all avenues are racing to hide these facts. 

Can North Korea get to this point? Yes, that is possible, but it seems to me that ‘western’ criminals are using that place to hide their actions and loot whatever they can, whilst they part time hack into places and hand these secrets over to North Korea. OK, I am still speculating. However, remember that building in Russia filled with hackers? Russian forces had to intervene there. It seems to me that these hackers would like another place to work from. It doesn’t make China innocent either. They might have the same issues and these hackers also need a place to work from. In this story, I merely come to the speculated conclusion that the term ‘North Korean Hacker’ is almost an newly seen oxymoron. 

In all this the cogs are not aligned. In 1776 native American Indians got their hands on rifles. It took time to get good with them. In 1877 Satsuma Rebellion, led by Saigo Takamori faced Japanese forces with modern weapons, it took them time to adequately use these weapons. With the complexity of a system the time line expands. The timeline expands even more when excellence of a system is required. As such I feel that these technology skills do not fit the abilities of the North Koreans. But that is merely my point of view.

Have a great Friday, another 150 minutes until I have breakfast.

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July 8, 2024 · 16:51

Two issues caught my attention.

The first issue is given to us by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx002795738o) The article starts with ‘‘I had to downgrade my life’ – US workers in debt to buy groceries’. In this I have a few speculations. You see Groceries are also set by ‘Permanent Price Adjustment’. This is what the producers of milk, bread and pretty much all items do. You see as they have costs and increased costs for whatever reasons. They pass on these cost to the shop, which in turn passes it onto you, the consumer. In the last 3 years things got to be more expensive and as such you feel that brunt. Per nation this varies. In Australia meat went up in total by 20% (over the last 3 years). Milk less so, but plenty of goods did go up and many have not seen an increase in income for years. So as we see “But after four years of rising prices, her support has worn thin – and every time she shops at the supermarket, she is reminded how things have changed for the worse. Ms Ellis works full-time as a nurse’s assistant and has a second part-time job” So in this case (as a republican minded person) I say that this is not on President Biden, not even on former president Trump. You see this is the consequence of having a $34,000,000,000,000 debt. As such businesses are taxed and as I see it, annually any administration will have to come up with $680,000,000,000 in interest alone. In 2023 the USA received (or allegedly received) $4,440,000,000,000. This implies that 15% of all taxed income goes towards interest on the outstanding debt and I have merely set that to 2%, Now consider that all costs that the government pays for is now down graded by 15% (more likely a higher percentage as the interest is also higher than 2%). Now consider that dairy, bread, meat and other options do not get incentives anymore (or at least a lot less). So there two items alone will be a lot more expensive. Then there is the operations of shops. It goes around again and again and that sets the price in many ways. There are more elements, but I am not privy to them. I warned on this several times over the last 8 years. There was going to be a problem and now people are seeing this happen and that is the beginning of draconian changes. So as Stacey Ellis and others see this happen, they go into ‘blame mode’ but they are blaming the wrong people. This is a failing of the entire administration and it started with former president George W. Bush in 2001. Former president Bill Clinton was the last president where green ink was gracing the US books of accounting. In 24 years all presidents have been pushing the debt forward. There was no exit strategy, just the wishful thinking that ‘tomorrow would be a better day’ and now after 24 years it is close to over. Not just in the USA, Europe is in a near similar place. That is what China had been hoping for so as they set the pressure even higher by getting the better deals, the west and others see the unfolding of economic disasters. And I am no economist! So there is the setting that plenty of others (real economics) should have known this and should have pushed for changes and taxing the rich was never an option. When government overreach with their Credit Card for 10%-20% more annually, at some point the card decline point is reached and that is where we are now. The USA, EU nations and others are getting their cards declined. Banks aren’t able to extent loans and whilst some are creative to pass credits via other nations. The banks are realising that the game is almost over. They might have a few options left but that will depend on how creative they can get. For this (also my speculative view) I point at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank. Three banks in 2023 with failures. Yet the media never looked at the abundant government loans they had in their books, it was my speculative view that their bonds were an overreach. So else did Janet Yellen keep a close view? At this point we were given ‘US prosecutors probing collapse of Silicon Valley Bank’ which was March 2023 and after that? Nothing as I can tell, as such spokespeople for the SEC, SVB and the Justice Department declined to comment. That was more than a year ago. So why isn’t the media doing their job? These are all elements of a nation that is running out of money and they are afraid to give out the real deal. I get it, it makes sense but it also means that life in the USA will be getting more and more expensive and when small farmers are breaking with the usual trend and start merely supplying their villages and their ‘friends’ the game changes even further. The big players cannot make claims they downgraded small farmers too often so that will have increased pressures to life in the city. And before you classify that this does not matter, be aware that 90% are small farms in the US. So when they hold back 10% of their farmed good for personal settings prices will be driven up even further. There is a setting where the old times could come back. I remember in the 60’s that I went to the potato farmer in a small shop in the street. That time could be back and it will implode most supermarkets. The stage is almost there that the supermarkets will be too expensive for potatoes, vegetables, fruit, dairy products and meat. When that happens the implosion that it sets off will be seen all over the US, especially in the metropolitan regions. Europe will not be far behind that. 

They are all intertwined so the first one to go will push the others over the edge. And when super markets go, where will you get your shopping? I reckon that California will hold out the longest, but in the end they too will have a problem. For the EU nations, France and Germany will hold out the longest. The UK will hold out, but how they will fare is anyones guess. I reckon that London will be the larger problem. The other cities are closer to rural regions, but for them I cannot say how it will evolve. 

So whilst the BBC gives us the partial goods. We need to see that the Stacey Ellis is but an element of a much larger problem and the media had the information for the longest of times. So why did they not inform you? Which stakeholders were part of the problem? All questions that too many are afraid to ask about. 

Have a great day (Second issue in next story).

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July 4, 2024 · 20:03

In the beginning

Two issues came to light, the first one is about an American cop. The BBC gives us (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72ver6172do) where we see ‘A Bugatti car, a first lady and the fake stories aimed at Americans’. We are given “A network of Russia-based websites masquerading as local American newspapers is pumping out fake stories as part of an AI-powered operation that is increasingly targeting the US election, a BBC investigation can reveal.

A former Florida police officer who relocated to Moscow is one of the key figures behind it.” We knew this, it is nothing new. The Dutch company Trollrensics is actively hunting down trolls and illustrating all the fake news we see (well most of it anyways). This article brought a small art to light that requires actions by both Amazon, Google and Microsoft. You see the BBC gives us “But before the truth could even get its shoes on, the lie had gone viral. Influencers had already picked up the false story and spread it widely”. This is a dangerous setting. Influencers are all about the traffic, they mostly lack integrity and have no clue on the desire to gain followers and their desire to get their golden YouTube sign. 

It is time that the United States and the European Union start to pressure these tech firms to chastise these influencers. If they cannot give ample validation of how they got the evidence how they verified the authenticity they get the full brunt of the consequences. If they are found spreading fake news, their Google rating is diminished, their video’s are all downgraded. And their video’s are skipped in searches unless a person asks for this (former) influencer by name (at which point several people can find the seekers). It is a little crude but the Russians are becoming too much of a nuisance. Oh, and by the way if they follow through on the threat to bomb the Netherlands, I will put my nuclear deterrent (a solution to make a nuclear reactor meltdown) on every BBS in Chechnya. See how they like that condition. Russia made enough enemies, if they have to protect every nuclear reactor in Russia they will lose 15% of their deployable troops protecting buildings they never had to before. Actions are needed and no one is doing them, they are all concerned with the bottom line. You see spreading fake news and false information is not a freedom. In this day and age it is a duty of everyone to not spread fake news and misinformation. Now I understand that not everyone is able to distinguish fake news from real news. I usually seek two official sources (the Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera, Arab News, Washington Post, Boston Globe, LA Times) there are more but you get the gist. The complication is John Mark Dougan, an American ex-cop. Just questioning. Why would anyone in Florida relocate to Moscow? No matter how valid his reason is. As we are given “an AI-powered operation that is increasingly targeting the US election” we are given the notion that this is all about Trump (my speculation) and it goes from bad to worse. As such I need to do something. I am not a man of action (when you pass the 60 mark that happens) but I have a decent imagination to look outside of the box. Russia has 38 active nuclear reactors. They collectively have 200,000 people working there. Consider that the Russians would need to check them all, secure them all. That implies thousands of troops. Then they need to inspect all new arrivals. It will be a nightmare I reckon. In the mean time they face Chechnya and Pro Ukrainian Russian troops. Plenty to worry about and with the solution out in the open, the Russians get a new danger and optionally their other enemies come out of the woodwork. 

But that is another matter. For now we need to take care of the influencers. They are the first hurdle to stop traction of fake news. In this Amazon, Google and Microsoft could change the rating of anyone spreading fake news, Google especially. Put their ratings to minus 150 and the influencers seize to be a relenting problem. Remove these accounts and their flocks disperse. Now I am not sure if Google can do that. You know that any account holder of a Google/Youtube account has rights. Just changing this on the fly does not go over well. But Google can stop the fake news from spreading, they can also look at the followers of that influencer. But I get ahead of the issues. Something needs to be done and not enough (as far as I can tell) is being done. 

Enjoy the day.

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July 1, 2024 · 10:51

The changes to a Digital Currency

I was alerted to a story on https://www.cointribune.com/en/saudi-arabia-joins-the-wrong-blockchain/ stating ‘Saudi Arabia joins the wrong Blockchain…’, well that is merely a matter of opinion. You see the CBDC (aka mBridge) is a digital currency that is controlled by banks. It is under control by China (read Tencent) and is a system that runs next to swift. It could rival it over the next few years and moreover could overtake swift too (speculative view by the writer, aka me). The involvement of Saudi Arabia implies “The kingdom’s integration into the BRICS club is far from trivial. Member countries are clearly expressing their intention to purge the dollar from their exchanges. The arrival of the Saudis could mean that Saudi oil exports to China could one day be conducted via the mBridge blockchain, in yuan”, implies is as I word it, but the implications as quoted is the first major dent into the ‘settings’ that could take a lot of Wall Street out of the frame, again this is purely speculative. Another source, Forbes gives us (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/08/24/bitcoin-vs-cbdcs-analyzing-universal-access-in-digital-currency/) ‘Bitcoin Vs. CBDCs: Analyzing Universal Access In Digital Currency’, which they gave us last August. They also give us “The digital cash revolution was spearheaded first by bitcoin and then by other cryptocurrencies, which has led to the birth of Central Bank Digital Currencies.” This is followed up by “it’s the rise of CBDCs and cryptocurrencies that may represent the most transformative phase in this evolution.” I think that is the larger issue. I don’t trust Bitcoin, not because of the digital setting, but the picture that it is not supported by any coins, or gold make it a virtual currency. ‘Everyone’ is on board for what they think it will bring. But the larger picture becomes that a virtual setting could from today ($62,730.9037) and when it goes to $50,184.7258 tomorrow (worst case scenario) there is nothing stopping it, moreover I reckon that all these pensioners hoping to get rich of this, this downfall will result in lots of pensioners ending with nothing. That was the fear I alway had. This is why I do not trust it. The CBDC (mBridge) is as said cemented in “the country’s central bank.” Forbes also gives us on the of the 23rd of June (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/06/23/cross-border-cbdc-focused-project-mbridge-moves-forward/) “For more than three years, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been working on a cross-border central bank digital currency (CBDC) project known as mBridge. In a nutshell, the project aims to improve efficiency, speed and transparency in cross-border payments.” It is the transparency that matters and the fact that it is under control of a nations central bank. This implies that banks are ultimately responsible for issues, with Bitcoin this is anyones guess. The text “MBridge recently took an important step forward with the completion of its minimal viable product (MVP) stage and the decision by Saudi Arabia to join the project.” You see this means that mBridge would be getting support from places like Aramco and China with their Yuan. This puts the USA on a slippery slope (commercial wise) if the oil dollar pushed to nowhere, the Yuan will gain strides of upgrades. Additional we get “According to China’s Digital Currency Research Institute (DCRI), mBridge transactions take seven seconds and cut cross-border payment costs by 50%.” I believe that the 7 second delay is only applicable to cross border issues and I do believe that this is a temporary delay (before the first upgrade a time upgrade), the reducing of cost by 50% would be cheered by all sides of the equation (probable with the exception of Wall Street). The article ends with “but risks to the initiative will rise sharply if it becomes seen as part of broader U.S.-China competition” a political setting, but as that rises the USA (and optionally the EU) will lose a lot more. For the most the people are fed up with the American bully tactics. It is hurting their pocket. Consider that a decade ago where everyone copied the narrative “Washington officials began warning of Huawei’s ability to embed spying capabilities in its gear” but never was any EVIDENCE presented by anyone. We get setting like ‘could’ and ‘the possibility arises’’. The former director of German intelligence stated to Deutsche Welle that they didn’t understand that technology. So where is the evidence? America presented a case that was settled a decade earlier. China has issues with the US and EU. This is their shot across the bough. And it is one that matters. With billions in revenue gained, with the BRICS setting and with a setting that could replace the oil dollar with the Yuan, Wall Street would lose a lot. So whilst the American administration begs for cheaper oil, all whilst they pretty much shot themselves in the foot. 2025 and 2026 might prove disastrous for both the US and EU. The EU will accept the mBridge solution a lot earlier than the US would and when the Bitcoin loses 20% or more in value. Many pensions will be reduced to zero. It was the risk of a decentralised system with no foundation in any bank or in a commodity like gold, but that is merely my point of view.

Enjoy today, it is still yesterday in Vancouver and Toronto. 

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June 27, 2024 · 01:17

The side not illuminated

The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5111qxl2nro) is giving us ‘Apple in breach of law on App Store, says EU’ We get a few sides, but one side is not given to us. We are given “European Union regulators have accused Apple of being in breach of new laws designed to rein in big tech companies” It sounds nice, but at present the station “rein in big tech companies” is at least sanctimonious. We are also given “The firm charges developers an average of 30% commission on its App Store” and the penalty is given as we are given “The firm faces a potential fine of up to 10% of its global revenue if it fails to comply with the rules”. You see the one part we are NOT given is that all these developers get a channel to publish their work. The get their million by harassing people with advertising. These developers have no interest in giving gamers a real gaming satisfaction (some, but massively too little). So the EU should consider the fallout. You see Apple and Google could do two things. Pull all the games with an advertising channel, stating that this is not permitted. The second part is that they can start charging for the service. The bulk of these gaming ‘companies’ will soon thereafter collapse. You see when all these companies get CHARGED for spreading these games and cyber security. The net thing we see is that these companies will go somewhere else and the dangers of servicing hackers becomes rather large. 

The next part is that this becomes a new setting where the UAE and Saudi Arabia will get the option to offer the same thing Apple and Google did, but charging a mere 5% to 10%, the rest will probably going to China, making the EU and US lose even more revenue. 

All this because the shareholders of Epic Games wanted more revenue and they got this by throwing a tantrum like a child so that they get charged less for services. And lets be clear, they were eager to accept the deal when they were small, now that they are big they can afford to pay for the services. But that is not the only part. Epic Games wanted another path and when even one of these 3rd parties get to be hacked and the players get the damage, Epic Games will face the largest class action lawsuit in history. At that point I wonder how the shareholders will reflect on a pay cycle that will cost them billions. They had a safe environment with Apple and Google, but when that falls away these two will help to give the victims all the numbers and all the support they need to clean out the vaults of all the game developers who took the greedy way out. In addition the EU will get a new problem. As game makers fall flat and optionally move to China or the Middle East the EU will lose revenue. In the last 8 years 10 games made $13,000,000,000. So what will the EU do when that goes to China (or the Middle East)? There are over 200 companies, 105 made over $500,000,000. This was a bad call. These politicians have a socialistic mindset, Take from the rich, but they forget that these rich companies set the foundation of growth. Sergey Brin, Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos were real innovators. The mediocrity of Microsoft is pushing them back more and more. And whilst they might be shown as the richest, they are losing more and more ground. Now with the EU, more and more business will move to better (read: non-European and American) shores. 

And the EU did this to themselves. Consider the DMA:

  • Business users who depend on gatekeepers to offer their services in the single market will have a Fairer business environment (But these services come at a cost, no more Freebees)
  • allow third parties to inter-operate with the gatekeeper’s own services in certain specific situations. (If hacked those services become nullified)

Just to part, the first will nullify these innovators, they cannot afford these services and they will go to a cheap solution making them a target for hackers. The second part will end some games, gamers have no patience and no humour. So when their game stops they will all cry like little children, their toy was taken away and when a hacker does get to upper hand, the class actions will come calling for all these companies. It is a war that the EU cannot win and the larger companies will become empty shells (my prediction). 

Until this first case was decided there was merely a threat of things, now it is coming to pass. 

I wonder what happens to the ‘fake’ economy in Europe when this starts. When advertising through gaming stops. What will the damage be? Amazon, Apple and Google have other means for getting advertising revenue. The others? Anyones guess, but there is a chance that a few hundred companies are sweating because no revenue meant no cost and that could stop now. So they need to find bankers. And what will those bankers demand? All issues that the DMA (Digital Markets Act) did not consider. I believe that this Apple case is opening a can of worms  no one is ready for and the implications are long term.

And now it is Thursday, Enjoy this day when you get to this point.

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June 14, 2024 · 12:30

The teeth that bite

It is a phase we see, the teeth are the realisation that issues are catching up with the world. They knew already, but they decided to keep you all in the dark. For this we need to go to ‘Will China Replace the US As Saudi Arabia’s Main Ally?’ (at https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/will-china-replace-the-us-as-saudi-arabias-main-ally/) there we are given the setting that China is ‘optionally’ replacing the United States as the main ally of Saudi Arabia. You might wonder what this is about. You see, I predicted this happening on June 3rd 2023, a little over a year ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/03/would-you-believe-that/) in ‘Would you believe that?’ I even inferred that earlier, but that was more speculation then the application of Business Intelligence. A year ago, Now lets be clear, I am nowhere near as gifted in analyses as the people in The Diplomat are (or should be) so this is where I got to ‘they decided to keep you all in the dark’, the writing as on the wall and it will become worse. Even as the United Stated is no playing nice to the Middle Eastern nations (Saudi Arabia and the UAE mainly). Their need for cheap oil, their need to keep involved but it is too little too late. Saudi Arabia is catching on and China is there to take up the slack. Brics was an element, but a small one. China was already catering to the needs of Saudi Arabia. 

And that is also my new setting of sales. You see I created the IP that could give Saudi Arabia (or the Kingdom Holding, owned by Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud) And it could give either 5 billion a year in phase one and continuing to 20 billion a year in a later stage. Billions deserted by Google and averted by Amazon and Tencent Technologies as well (Microsoft was not invited). It merely required them to open their eyes. And with this setting there is a clear showing of elements where these players are shown where they lost out. For the most they are all on the AI horse (which does not yet exist) and more importantly, as this IP matures, the moment LLM (Large Language Models) and Deeper Machine learnings grow up and interact, the setting will become even brighter. One pillar of this could cost Facebook a little over 10% in the beginning with around 20%-30% later on. All because the captains of industry were asleep at the wheel. 

And do they connect? Yes, when China wakes up to this revenue and they see that they can go after the treasure trove of Facebook, they will have a vindication of TikTok, more importantly, TikTok could become the main driver in the Middle East, which should partially hurt Google as well (an unintended side effect). Now that the ties between Saudi Arabia and Indonesia are strengthening, the game changes even more. When Bangladesh is reeled in the loss for America and Wall Street is nearly complete. Egypt is already on board, so 3 out of 4 are on the side of Saudi Arabia, all that because people are running after hypes and (more often then not) asleep at the wheel. 

Perhaps a little reminder is in order. Chasing hypes is the consequence of marketing, not sales. One is wishful, the other is an achievement. China seems to have it partially worked out, how far they have come is unknown to me, but the setting that the Diplomat needed to give credence to this stage implies that the controlling powers are now scared that the stage is taken away from them. I think it is already being taken away, but we need to see the news on that (if they even report on this). 

The stage is set to the discussion on China replacing the United States and the west, but the one part that they do not report on is the impact that this economically has. You see, this would push well over $135,000,000,000 from the US and EU towards China. It seems like it will be ‘regarded’ as small fry, but the lack of these funds will definitely hurt the EU and the US, should my IP have the larger impact than the stage changes even further. Consider the UK reporting on a loss of 4 billion, the EU on 65 billion and the US 66 billion loss, how much tighter will their belts end up being? In that same setting Beijing will get the extra revenue which will open door to second and third tier revenue. 

We can argue that I am not seeing this correctly and that would be fair. But I have been right for well over a year, the writing was on the walls on this one. And consider one little extra. I came up with the IP. Not Amazon and not Google, so when you realise that they were asleep how much revenue did they miss by chasing a non existing AI horse? And Apple? Not sure where they stand, they have been minding their own niche which is fair enough. Yet when we consider that they too left (for other reasons) billions in revenue. What learning should we take from that? I say learning because when you are focussed on a niche that is part of a market and you mind your store, you are not doing anything wrong. We need to also see this. But Amazon and Google should have picked up on this. They cannot hide that failure. Merely my point of view.

Have a great day.

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