Category Archives: Finance

May 2, 2023 · 12:57

Wages of fear

That happens, we at times decide to take a very risky road and US politicians more than most, but now they are about to head into shallows with a cruise liner? You will state that this is no big deal, tugs will pull it into deep water and normally you would be right. Yet in this case the cargo is nitroglycerine, so as it hits the shores the ship goes badaboom, a really big badaboom and it is not a ship we are talking about, it is the US economy. So as we consider what is about to happen, lets give you an example.

Netflix


Netflix at present (and over the last year has had well over 225 million subscribers, giving it an annual payday of well over $27,000,000,000 which is not too shabby, a good setting to work from.  So after the 17 billion in new media it has over 10 billion and change, I reckon that 50% if not more into technology, as such they are doing fine.

US Economy
Now we get into a less good place, the US economy and do not mistake one for the other. The US economy has many. Complexities, but the setting does not change, it needs to pay bills. As such we rely on Forbes giving us “The National Debt Approaches $32 Trillion, Will It Bankrupt America?”  (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2023/04/25/the-national-debt-approaches-32-trillion-will-it-bankrupt-america/) and this is where two groups are opposing, those in denial claim it will not be so (very wishful thinking). I myself and many others are on the opposing side of the debate. Forbes gives us “The current revenue of the federal government is approximately $4.6 trillion while spending exceeds $6.0 trillion. Thus, the current budget deficit is over $1.4 trillion. It’s clear that members of Congress are spending like drunken sailors and like the Titanic, the U.S. is on a collision course with a financial iceberg” yet this is merely one side of the shallows they are heading for. You see, that we get from another side (the New York Times) who gives us that the US is running out of money somewhere between June and September. Yet that is not the whole enchilada. These two parts should alert you to the US Bonds fiasco, I tried to warn you a few times over. You see whilst everyone is cheering on bonds, there is a downside. These pesky papers mature and even as the interest payday seems small (1.65%) over $20,000,000,000,000 that still ends up being a $330 billion invoice and the budget does not take that in. OK, it is not all due immediately, but a rough estimate gives is that in the next 4 years $2,400,000,000,000 does and that is still a massive amount. Add to this the budget deficit that has been going on for years and you see the problem the US economy is heading for. It might never have been avoided, it could have been delayed by a lot. And with the current deficits, where will the US find $600 billion annual in maturing bonds (2023-2027)

I warned of this 25 years ago when I called for a tax overhaul where companies (Google, Facebook, IBM, Apple, that loser Microsoft and several more) would pay their fair share, merely their fair share.

The point of no return was reached when Barack Obama became president of the United States. Lets be clear, this was NOT his fault, but the point where we cannot avoid what comes next was achieved. If only people had woken up a lot sooner. But there we got past a point where the problems would accelerate and now we are almost at that point. And the banks will be no help. I tried to warn you a few times over. Some of their risk and liquidity is in US bonds and when the US forfeits payment your 401K and many other things will become worth close to nothing. So if you wonder where wealth of middle class incomes is, look towards Mexico. 

And will it get worse? Yes, but how remains an issue for now. Politicians will give way to wealth and rich friends first, so that they an get their slice and these people will go to Monaco, Dubai and the Bahamas. Many of them saw this coming and they already have places there, they have had them for years. So what can be done? Actually nothing, it is too late for that, all the whining and claims will fall flat and merely moves the timeline. The American children will know what true poverty feels like, they will get there at the end of their teens or early adult life. There are a few things that will happen, pushing forward bonds will be the easiest and convincing these owners to sell to appointed people or let it ride for a lot more, but that is a bill that adds a decent amount. Whomever has a billion in bonds and is offered 3.8% instead of 1.65% will consider it and I reckon that this is why we now see 20 years bonds (personal speculation). But after that the options go dark, really dark and that is what banks fear too, because the next bank run will take away a truck load of liquidity. It is like the stowaway that went for the happy shores or America, only to learn that the weather is foul and they suddenly realise that the cargo hold is filled with Nitroglycerine. Would you chance swimming, or hope for the best. Don’t forget that the shallows were YOUR saviour, not that much for a cruise-liner with combustibles.

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 1, 2023 · 13:31

The premise of danger

That is what I feel is in play, but there is a word of warning, my premise is speculative. To see this we need to take a look at two new articles, both from the BBC. The first one is ‘First Republic makes last ditch bid to find rescue deal’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65441302). I will go into details shortly. The second one is ‘US Fed admits failure to take forceful action on SVB’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65428206) which came in a day earlier, but it all links to ‘I honestly don’t get it’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/12/i-honestly-dont-get-it/), which I wrote on March 12th. As such we have a growing concern that stretches well beyond 6 weeks and now we get “According to reports, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), a US financial regulator, sought bids for First Republic by the end of last week and has been assessing them over the weekend. Investment banking giant JP Morgan Chase is believed to be one of the banks invited to bid for First Republic, according to news agency Reuters. Bank of America is also understood to have been approached.” And in those six weeks I made a few clear presumptions/speculations. Yet NONE of the media looked into any of that, not even by their own accounts. The setting is that slippery and as such the media has shown that it can no longer be trusted. You see, there was a clear premise that some banks have too many US Bonds, but no one is willing t report on it and now people are withdrawing cash. The global setting becomes that putting your wealth in your mattress (or in a Saudi or Dubai bank) tends to be safer and that is not a good thing. No one is willing to look into the bulk of the US bonds and where they are, more importantly, no one is looking into which banks have US Bonds and how may they have of them, but the journalistic joke (ICIJ) was willing to play the NSA game (Credit Suisse leak) and emotionally speculate away whatever they could. The media is failing us all, because many are driven to ‘governmental’ needs. Yet, this is speculative, but look at what was published and what we are told, the numbers do not add up (neither do the topics). And in the second article we get “The US central bank has said it failed to act with “sufficient force and urgency” in its oversight of Silicon Valley Bank”, as such they didn’t learn in 2008 and they are seemingly not learning now. I use the word seemingly because of the Bonds issue, as I personally see it, some aren’t willing to report on connected matters and that is a whole different kettle of fish, but it is my view and if there is decent evidence proving me wrong, I will accept that. 

So when we are given “Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision, who led the review, said the US central bank should toughen its rules in response to what it had learned from SVB’s demise” we need to consider a few things. Basel III was created in 2010 (13 years ago) and in the US it was named the “Dodd-Frank Act” which was supposed to stop banks from taking excessive risks, which was partially repealed on May 24, 2018 by former President Trump. And now we have several new messes that could (in a most dire setting) bring about a new age of poverty in the US. Yet the larger setting that pushed for this is how many banks have US Bonds and how many do they have? 

And there is enough evidence out there, but for some reason the bulk of the media will not go near it, why not? If you follow the timeline and you start digging into 

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)
Signature Bank
First Republic Bank
Credit Suisse
UBS Group AG (they bought Credit Suisse)

A weird setting starts to evolve and I am not an economist, as such someone will tell me I am wrong, but when you start comparing where $20 trillion in US Bands are, the picture shifts. Some are well established ‘banks’ like Rothschild & Co, as such plenty will have bonds, but some took a chance on getting rich quick and the partial repealing of the Dodd-Frank act allowed them, as such several are now in problems and there are more in this level of problem, but someone is brushing these facts under the carpet (and the banks themselves are hiding issues), as such I expect to see more revelations like this over the next 2 quarters. I recon the US Central banks are doing whatever they can to douse that fire before a full baking meltdown is on the horizon and the media is assisting, because if they were not, we would see a lot more facts come to light. Or as my grandfather would say ‘the best secret keeper of an adulterer is a brothel’, to state that someone is getting rich of keeping the secret at present and as I personally see it, the media is assisting them. Why is that? It is (again as I personally see it) because you are no longer entitled to getting the actual news. You get filtered information. News that is censured and approved by share holders, stake holders and advertisers.

Take notice of that small fact and enjoy Monday, only 112 hours until the weekend.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

April 29, 2023 · 19:11

The price of exploitation

This time I am going in a different direction, one I know little (say: nothing) about, yet the news the BBC gives me is baffling me. I wonder if the US (and Hollywood) realise the dangers of exploitation, even more important how it could impact their economy. To start this we need to take a look at ‘How a Hollywood strike could affect your favourite TV shows’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65407703). Now to be clear strikes happen, they are almost a fact of life. You are either striking, or you get hit by the impact directly or indirectly. So here we get “The biggest issue is how writers are paid in the new streaming economy, with many reporting lower wages as digital platforms have upended traditional television and film productions, says the Writers Guild of America, the union representing television and film writers.” And then we get the ugly “Hollywood’s business model has been completely disrupted by streaming, and now writers complain of being asked to provide weeks or months of free rewrites of scripts” and that got to me. An institution that gets a billion or more per movie? That institution has to ask for rewrites under zero hours compensation? How fucked up is Hollywood? We can go in any direction, but Hollywood made $7,370,000,000 in 2022. I reckon shelling out 130-150 million for 11,500 Writers Guild member is not that big a leap, especially when you realise that “The last writers’ strike in 2007-2008 lasted 100 days and cost the California economy $2bn (£1.6bn), leading to many cancelled or delayed shows. Some have also credited it with boosting the proliferation of reality TV.” The business person in me states that losing 150 million is preferable to losing 2,000 million to a strike with the added loss of optionally successful TV series. As such I wonder where the greed driven stage of Hollywood is taking them, especially when Canada has its own production companies and they could get up to 100 days of advance house cleaning (the house names Hollywood). That is before you consider Brandon Hines who gives us “I just wrote on a show and I can’t eat, I rely on government assistance.” A series writer on government assistance? And you wonder why the writing guild is angry? Now there is another side, there are so many shows pushed out at present that I feel that something will have to give. A place like Netflix alone is allegedly spending $17,000,000,000 for content in 2024. I have no idea what the drill down is and it is likely too complex, yet I expect that writers are undervalued there as well. So what happens when the cream of the crop vacates to Canada or the UK (or Australia)? You can scream all you like, but these people seemingly have had enough and puts the pressure in other places too. All these TV hosts that suddenly cannot sound funny anymore. All these hosts that have nothing on the tele-prompter when that takes a front seat the Hollywood economy will take a dive whilst they rely on second or third class writers. So what happens to the Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) when it relies on writing students scripting the day away? What happens when an expected revenue of this movie ($1.7B) makes no more than $850M? I can tell you that the investors will take a run towards Canada and the UK, optionally Australia as well.

You tell me what the gain of greed is, because as I see it there is absolutely no positive side to that, but wait until May 8th 2023 and see shows (movies too) getting cancelled. All this was a simple application of Business Intelligence, an abacus was enough to set the parameters of this folly. The weird part is that we see “Hollywood’s business model has been completely disrupted by streaming”, they had years to correct for that and I would reckon that a revue savvy place like Hollywood would have their own regiment of BI people all over the place. So what did I see that THEY ignored, you tell me because I am at a loss.

Enjoy the weekend

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, movies

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

April 28, 2023 · 21:16

What’s the play?

That is the question I had before and again now when I read the AL Monitor article (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/04/saudi-arabia-seizes-127-million-captagon-pills-pomegranate-bust). There we see ‘Saudi Arabia seizes 12.7 million Captagon pills in pomegranate bust’. Now any nation will have drug problems, it is almost a fact of life. Some will give in and try it. But consider that the population of Saudi Arabia is almost 36 million. As such this shipment represents the ability to get a third of the nation high. And it leaves me with questions. Did these people want to get caught? Consider the simple setting. When you are dopey the dealer, you might be able to sell 100-200 pills at best. Perhaps in some areas of Aramco, near the monotone drilling (a pure speculation from me) perhaps 400 pills. To get that much pills implies a distribution system with 31,750 dealers. I know too little about Saudi Arabia to make that call, but if we adhere to statistics then the idea that Saudi Arabia has more than 500 dealers is almost preposterous and when consider the numbers something does not add up. So are these drug smugglers looking to get arrested? I reckon that it might be decently easy to hide 1000 pills in a pomegranate shipment, perhaps even 2000-3000, but twelve million? So I had questions and this is not the first time I see an article pass by like that, I had questions then too, but to be honest, this is a niche market I absolutely do not care about. So we see that two Egyptians, one Syrian and one Yemeni national were arrested. Four people from different nations (more questions) and as such they ‘thought’ to strike it rich? As such we get more “The highly addictive substance travels through Jordan to reach Gulf states, where it has been a drug of choice among disenfranchised youth, particularly in Saudi Arabia.” This gives us more, you see some numbers give us that this group contains 4.79 Million people, yet drug users tend to be male, so it is merely 50% of that and they ship enough to cover 100% of that group many times over? This makes zero sense, yet the idea that someone is TRYING to create a drug problem in Saudi Arabia, that partially makes sense (but the shipment is at least 1000% too big), yet that is also speculation from me. Moreover when you consider the setting, optionally smuggling via Yemen instead of Jordan makes more sense to me. There are a whole range of questions that shape in my head, but they are all related to the first premise, what is the actual plan here, because this is not an approach that any drug dealer would go for. To keep 3-5 years of evidence somewhere in their place of ‘trust’? The article also gives us “In March, Saudi Arabia seized 4.6 million amphetamine pills hidden in a shipment of ceramic toilets, sinks and washbasins and arrested a Jordanian national.” I seemingly more discrete amount, but still way above the normal amount. I wonder if they are also investigating in Saudi Arabia what the plan was of these four dopes, because this is not about a simple drug heist, this much amphetamines implies a very different stage and I can only speculate (which I will not do) on what that plan is, but consider the cost of these pills, the cost to create and what kind of incomes these 4 people had. When you add the elements up you come to the same conclusion as I did. This was about something else. Perhaps the drugs were a diversion? When you go back to some sources, one gave me “One Chinese website even advertises a “captagon tablet press” for $2,500 that can spew out tens of thousands of pills an hour. For a few dollars” this comes with the added question of the cost of the chemicals and the added source gives me “A Captagon pill costs just a few cents to produce in Syria or Lebanon” then consider that the maker would charge perhaps $0.50 per pill, that implies that the shipment represented a little more than $6,000,000. So where did these four dopey’s get that much money? And that is on the premise I hold, should the cost be $1 per pill (seems more likely) especially when the implied street value in Saudi Arabia is $20, the cost marker shifts buy a lot, so is one of these 4 wealthy? I personally doubt it.

Yet when you consider these elements the entire shipment of over 12 million pills makes less and less sense. This was not a simple drug shipment, or a simple smuggling operation. This is about something more and I wonder what I would find if I start data mining that evidence. From smuggling routes to financial data and that is before we consider that Saudi Arabia starts asking questions from the Syrian or Lebanese governments, they both would be in serious hot waters if they were in any way aiding drug smuggle into Saudi Arabia and still the largest question remains open: “Why that much drugs?” I end with a lot more questions than I had before the article and I reckon some Saudi’s might have the very same questions.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law

Tagged as , , , , , , , , ,

April 26, 2023 · 02:31

Is the die cast?

That is the question, personally I think it is, America dug its own grave and I am not asking you to take my word for this. Lets take a look at two pieces of ‘evidence’ handed to us. The first is Al Jazeera. They give us (at https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/4/25/can-china-replace-the-us-in-the-middle-east) the headline ‘Can China replace the US in the Middle East?’ The question asked here is a much better question than you think. The article (by Erin Hale) gives us “China still does not have the ability to replace the US in the Middle East, where Washington has dozens of military bases and allies it has committed to defending. But Beijing might not want to take on that responsibility yet in any case, experts say” this was part of the short answer and it is a good considerations to have. The problem is that this is based on US sided ‘experts’. People like that have gotten too much wrong, yet are they getting this wrong? That is the larger stage that we cannot answer. You thin you can, but none of is actually can. But there are two more quotes that ‘sully’ the waters here. The first is “the United States has not conducted itself particularly responsibly for the last 20 years”, the second one is “Beijing is viewed as an ideologically neutral trading partner, which has long maintained a policy of non-interference in the domestic issues of Middle Eastern countries, from politics to human rights, making it a less controversial mediator than countries like the US” these two statements are strong. Beijing has no real experience in the Middle East, which also means they have no negative marks against them, which works in their favour. Yet the larger stage of security is in the hands of the US and that looks good in the eyes of the Middle Eastern partners. In addition, the US has more than three dozen military bases in the Middle East. A stage that not only is hard to replace, but there would be indications that China is uneasy trying to replace those. In addition it means a massive contribution of troops to the Middle East, a stage they do not fully comprehend, more important, they are likely to make a mess of certain parts in a time when they cannot afford them. 

This gets us to the second article, which has some links to the first one. It comes from the Middle East Eye (at https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-rejoins-worlds-top-five-military-spenders-says-report) where we are given ‘Saudi Arabia rejoins world’s top five military spenders, says report’ and this is the big part. You see, the article gives us that Riyadh spend an estimated $75,000,000,000 last year in military goods (hardware and software). The problem is that as of 2023 onwards a much larger slice of that cake will go to China. The US (EU too) messed up by a lot and that comes at a cost. The second part is that these military base options are to some degree connected to the sale of military hardware, now that is to an increasing amount falling towards China the US needs to do something, but they are left without options at present. We see “Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican Mike Lee – came together to introduce legislation that would require US President Biden’s administration to report on Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and possibly cut off all US security assistance to the kingdom.” A stage that sounds like a threat yet it comes with the opportunity for China and with that opportunity we see a much larger shift in staging. The US made their own bed, would not unite in one view and up to 50 billion will be whisked away from their table. In a stage where the US is one step away from a collapsing dollar and the implosion of its economy they have decided to bite that feeds them. How stupid is that? And in a stage where they could lose more and more oil, promising to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” is more than bad strategy. You see 67 journalists were murdered in 2022. How much actions were taken? The one that no one gives a hoot about is the poster child for the US, all whilst the evidence was lacking, the United Nations report reads like a joke and still people push that narrative. As such several countries, not just Saudi Arabia are in a stage to hand the US their walking papers. As the MEE ends with “Current and former US officials who previously spoke with MEE were back-footed by the agreement” and that is not all, the off balance part is the smallest detail. You see with all the banking issues, losing billions in revenue will have larger consequences and a new stage. Players like Chengdu will now have a much larger audience in 2023/2024, implying that the Airforce stage that once was will be no more. Both the US and Russia needs to accept that China is now a major player with the buyers that can afford 5th generation fighter aircrafts and that list of people allowed to own one will drastically increase, setting a new problem for the US, the EU and Russia. In all this I personally believe that the die was cast in 2018, some disagree and they are welcome to disagree. Some offer good explanations for their point of view, I might not agree but that is irrelevant. The question for the us is “is the die cast?” There is no real answer coming. Experts that are scared for their income, scared to give anything but a ‘pro-American’ view is fine, until reality creeps in. The reality is that both the US and EU are too close to bankrupt to accept these losses as is. I have no idea what they will do and their own issue is internal as their internal ‘opponents’ are trying to poison the political well. All those people trying to get the deal going get to deal with people shouting anti Islam propaganda and the Middle East has (as I personally see it) had enough of that. Now that China is making headway, the options change and for the US (EU too) not for the better. 

Enjoy the day. 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

April 25, 2023 · 06:24

A story for the ages

That is the thought I woke up from (about 34.6 minutes ago). Most of us know the Age of reason, which is often phrased as ‘an intellectual and philosophical movement that dominated the world of ideas in Europe during the 17th to 19th centuries’ Is often linked to ‘The Age of Reason; Being an Investigation of True and Fabulous Theology’ a work by Thomas Paine. In this book he made deism appealing and accessible to the masses and it started something. Yet what followed wasn’t as nice as e think it was. We merely think of the age of industrialisation, but in 1993 I was captured by Kazuo Ishiguro’s Remains of the day, the movie (I never read the book). There Christopher Reeve tells us as Jack Lewis “Europe has become the arena of Realpolitik, the politics of reality. If you like, real politics. What you need is not gentlemen politicians, but real ones” it struck me how much the UK and the world seemingly had relied on Nepotism. As such the field of ‘granting an advantage, privilege, or position to relatives or close friends in an occupation or field’ changed into a new form of nepotism ‘granting an advantage, privilege, or position to a fellow alumni’s in an occupation or field’ it might certainly be better, but there is a danger there too. The people from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania will obviously disagree with me,  but there is a correlation with certain schools and it is all ‘equalised’ with terms like ‘they think like we do’ approach. Yet all this goes further. As the 19th century passed, we saw the age of Politics evolve into the age of Wall Street. I think the clearest point was the Ghouta chemical attack in 2013 when we saw that on, or around June 13th 2013, the United States government publicly announced it had concluded that the Assad government had used limited amounts of chemical weapons on multiple occasions against rebel forces, killing 100 to 150 people. US officials stated that sarin was the agent used. Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes did not say whether this showed that Syria had crossed the “red line” established by President Obama in August 2012, which was interesting because when I went to primary school we heard that ANY use of chemical agents was a red line. The line was replaced to a new setting, as I personally saw it Syria had no economic value to Wall Street, this happened again when different lines were crossed in Yemen with Houthi terrorists, that nation had no value to Wall Street other than the revenue of war machines and as I personally saw it Wall Street was industrious in indirectly stopping actions. This was however not possible in the Ukraine and now there were two issues. The first is that Ukraine was too close to the EU and the power of the Euro (a currency Wall Street Neds to remain high, or on par with the dollar) as such a new setting evolved. 

The age of politics is over, we see Yemen, now Ukraine and the Sudan and in the latter two the Wagner group is overly active. So what will the next age be called? The age of war, the age of mercenaries? Your guess is as good as mine but there are too many pieces and events that show that the age of politics is over, what follows it is unknown. Perhaps the age of Islam? What we can see is that the Middle East is the only real economic power remaining. Unlike the US, it does not have a $30,000,000,000,000 debt, if anything it is making billions with Aramco, a grocery store valued at $2,000,000,000,000 making it almost on par with Apple. In the age of money talks and bullshit walks, the US has become the silent mute we now all point to, especially as it is driven by media that openly lies about election results. The media is so clear about what is true is not the same as what is truth, but in all this the simple setting is that the age of Wall Street is over,  the USA is no longer a superpower. That age is gone and we are unsure what follows, there is every chance that this new age has China firmly at the helm with Saudi Arabia and OPEC at its side. Where does Russia fall? Well their open lies on all media and the fact that the second largest military force is unable to deal with the 21st largest army (Ukraine) implies that they are soon imploding all over the place and the inhumane and apparently acceptable claims by the Wagner group, I do not think that Russia will be tolerated much longer, not by the old power players or by the ones replacing them. We now hear “Evgeny Prigozhin stated that Russian mercenaries will no longer take Ukrainian defenders captive, instead opting to “kill all on the battlefield,”” a setting which was set in the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War in article 13. If we see the Geneva convention as one of the great achievements in politics we now see that the inaction by all others imply that the age of politics is over, it is dead, and it’s rotting cadaver remains in the street. Another piece of evidence that the age of politics is over, because if that was not the case EVERY newspaper and their websites would be all over this screaming outrage, but that is not the case, most of them are talking about Tucker Carlson. That is how bad it has become.

Try to enjoy Tuesday whilst still alive.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

April 24, 2023 · 19:35

By what evidence?

I had to stop and read an article on Business Insider (at https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-crown-princes-china-deals-hint-city-darker-neom-mbs-2023-3) the headline ends with the ominous ‘His deals with China reveal a darker vision.’ I wonder where they get that from. You see the text “But analysts believe that Chinese tech could be used to place residents under total surveillance.” You see, the text sounds nice, but what evidence is there? Are these the same analysts that claimed that there were Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq? Are these the same analysts that dropped the ball again and again in the era 2017-2022? So when we are given “The crown prince has been strengthening his ties with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, who has agreed to provide powerful surveillance technology.” I wonder what evidence there is. China courted Saudi Arabia for a long time as there was billions in defence structures to be build and to be sold. Solutions that the US and UK sneered at, like the yapping chihuahua they deserted Saudi Arabia and now that America is almost done for, they are poisoning the well any way they can. We see the name Jili Bulelani and we see the word Harvard, but we see no real evidence. So when we are given “China has already provided surveillance technology for the creation of so-called “safe cities”, run on user data, in Egypt and Serbia, report by the Washington Institute think tank found.” The simple question becomes, what evidence do you have to show? It is nice that we see think tanks, but their revenue revolves around worst case scenarios and I see no evidence, none at all. Then we are given “Last December, MBS welcomed Xi to Saudi Arabia for a lavish summit, where the leaders announced cooperation across a broad range of issues, including surveillance tech.” That is actually correct, but the Chinese goals were loftier, they had the option to push America out of the defence business and the defence business involves surveillance and reconnaissance s well, so it is merely half a point and not in the right direction. Then we are given ““We’re not yet seeing quite the same degree of sort of physical surveillance [in Saudi Arabia] as we’ve been seeing in China, for example, but China is working with the Saudis and other Gulf countries to start to implement that,” Annelle Sheline, a researcher with the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, told Insider.” In this what exactly is ‘not yet seeing quite the same degree’ that implies some degree, so where is THAT evidence? We see all these institutes vomiting statements like a cat eating citrus leaves and it goes nowhere. Then we get “Another potential concern is cloud technology, specifically the companies that store huge amounts of computer data. Chinese telecoms giant Huawei has already signed contracts with Saudi Arabia, including in NEOM, and James said there were huge questions about how much privacy protection the firm would provide users in the city.” Yes, Huawei was invited to roll out a complete 5G circus, especially after the US was stupid enough to make boasts, all whilst the Huawei was over 700% faster and stronger. I will include that chart below. It is a few year old, but that was the setting in 2020.

As such Huawei has proven themselves and at present the US and EU have never shown EVIDENCE that Huawei was spying on its consumers with their phones. Stronger, they don’t need to, the Pentagon will happily put TS information online to appease their own ego’s and that is nothing compared the the documents some leak to the press. China could merely slam an American ego and the information would come pouring out (no honeytrap required). 

As such we have an issue, it becomes worse when the Business Insider gives us “While casting himself as a reformer, Crown Prince Mohammed has dealt brutally with critics and opponents of the Saudi government, including the 2018 murder and dismemberment of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi.” It is worse because there is no evidence that the Crown Prince was involved, more important there is no body as such no actual evidence of what happened to that columnist no one gives an eff… about. As one source gave someone I knew, he had a secret mistress age 19 and they are spending their lives on Bora Bora. That too is unconfirmed and therefor not reliable, just like that essay that the UN essay writer Eggy Calamari gave us. I punched several holes in that on February 27th 2021 in the article ‘That was easy!’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/02/27/that-was-easy/) as such the article in the Business Insider gets to get hurt as well, there were a few issues and perhaps their readers enjoy part of an incorrect story, but the short and sweet is that the US administration was willing to soil its ally Saudi Arabia, a powerful nation with lots of oil and trillions in real estate investments and now that China is eager to get that large slice of revenue, the US is looking at what is left, but there isn’t much left, there is just the 30 trillion in debt and little or no revenue and now that the Ukraine-Russian clambake is starting to bite, that revenue was imperative, but China is there now. Is it possible that the story is true? Well one part definitely is not, the rest requires EVIDENCE, evidence that we aren’t given and that remains an issue. I am a firm believer of evidence, so as I reject one side, I also reject the other side (Bora Bora) because the evidence is not there. 

As such Business Insider needs to reevaluate what they print and by what standards, and as I have stated before, the standards of the media is slipping by a lot and that is merely the last 3 years. I reckon that as the US grows desperate for more and more revenue that standard slips most likely even more, but that is a personal view I hold.

Have a great day, that day after the weekend. Happy Monday!

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

April 23, 2023 · 20:37

Whilst watching a painting

This is an odd day, even by my standards, but to see that we need to take this chronologically. It all started with an article about 10-12 hours ago. The article (at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/21/pentagon-leak-modern-spying-ts-si-fvey-signals-intelligence-five-eyes) gives us ‘TS, SI, FVEY: what the Pentagon leak initials tell us about modern spying’. The Guardian article is quite good, there is nothing negative to say, but whilst I was reading it, thoughts came to me. The first came with “Teixeira was one of 1.25 million people able to access top secret material on the US Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System, a share repository created in response to 9/11. A former senior British official said he believed it was obvious that now was the time to review the distribution of top secret material.” It took me back several years and the over BS imagery that Huawei was a danger. It was so dangerous that it had to be taken out of the networks. The UK had a decent reason, but merely barely. Now we see that there is causality between showing off gamers and the Pentagon. They do not need to wait for China, US intelligence staff are eager to please (optionally through peer pressure) and they will put it all online. No weakness in Cisco, or backdoor in Huawei equipment was required. It sounds harsh and it needs to be. The next part is “In an era where counter-state threats are taking over, and the danger of leaks greater, it looks like a rethink is needed, the ex-insider said.” That is actually quite deep. Rethinking the intelligence classification system is not an easy task, but one worthy of considering. I reckon the Navy (any Navy) is the hardest part, they are set in their ways and changing that is near impossible, making a 50 year old hooker a virgin is probably easier. 

Anyway, I was contemplating these issues and suddenly an image appeared in my mind. It was a painting of General Lafayette I saw a long time ago and suddenly the cogs started to turn. I remembered certain arcade machines in the 80’s and now my mind redraw the specs and reset the issues to a new kind of arcade. One that might find great interest in places like Universal world in Orlando, and adjusted setting might make it also feasible for Disney-world (also in Orlando), and the idea didn’t stop there. The setting powered by Sony Playstation 5 (multiple) gives a rather different stage and one that I don’t think has been considered before. That being said, if one part works this thing could go in all kinds of directions. You see, if engagement is the power of marketing, what happens when rides become engaging and almost interactive? It is a new and different setting. The nice part is that the Sony Systems are more powerful then required, as such the stage isn’t merely what powers it, but HOW it is powered and I wonder if these two players ever thought in that direction. Now we merely need to fill in the blanks, almost like the pentagon is doing by handing blanks to people who should never have been given security clearance. Still it was the thought that counts and I reckon that even with the absence of Huawei equipment China is delighted with people like Jack Teixeira, I wonder if they will send them a Christmas card this year, just for jollies. 

In part I wonder why the Pentagon doesn’t have a verification system. I read about it once, I forgot where. The systems creates almost identical documents, the punctuation was key here. They figured out the source by having different versions with here and there a different punctuation and with some punctuations missing. As such with only 33 punctuation alterations, you could drill  down on the leak with the second document, consider the amount of punctuations 3-5 pages has, it would be an easy task and with deeper machine learning it could be automated to some degree. No interference and a clear path towards seeking verification. This was not my idea, I read it somewhere and for the life of me, I cannot recall where I read it. 

Still this all led to a new idea in theme park options, it just came to me, thank you very much General Lafayette (he died 189 years ago, so the IP is all mine). 

Still there is another link, the link is one the approach to classification. You see, mot nations have a clear track, the US and the five eyes intelligence group a lot less so. It does not matter how it is done, the issue is resources and staff and that link is not optimised. Tell me in all honesty, why do 1.25 million Americans with top secret clearance have access to all these documents? Why is there not a database where it is stored and people will have to access when needed. But when was there information? Is that not in reports THEY file. There needs to be a more intelligent tag system that allows people with access to seek document that they should be aware of. In all honesty, which documents did Jack Teixeira actually need? It is a serious question because there is part of the solution. Anyway, it is a slippery slope and it is not easy to navigate SIGINT and GEOINT and those are the two I have some knowledge of from 1981 onwards and my exposure was extremely limited. Still it makes for an interesting puzzle and it led me to a new IP options in theme parks and in all honesty I have no idea what to do with it next. I need to figure that out at some point.

Enjoy Sunday.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Gaming, IT, Military, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , ,

April 22, 2023 · 22:52

What more can they do?

My mind stopped hen I was going through the CBC articles and it was (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/armstrong-wrexham-ryan-reynolds-nuvei-1.6818664) where we see ‘How Ryan Reynolds became Canada’s unlikeliest business mogul’ and to be honest, I am not sure that I agree. The man has played his time right. The most unlikely X-Files extra in season 2 (1994) got additional roles all over the place and at some point he got cast against top line actors and actresses. He held his ground and we all saw he was destined for some great roles. I can only speculate how he did it, but at some point he saw that his acting could get him more. And this is not for all and not for the faint of heart. He has the brains to see through things and he cashed in. 

Aviation Gin
Mint Mobile
Wrexham Football
Nuvei

Are only 4 of the visible part. 

I called him (on more than one occasion) the craziest marketeer on the planet. He comes across flaky, but what matters is that he brings a message. In ONE advertisement he basically created global awareness to Nuvei. One ad did that. Like he did with other brands. Unlike many actor and actresses who become a face of something, he added (as I personally see it) his voice and insight and that is gold in marketing and as I see it, he figured it out and in the end he loaded two faces into over $2,500,000,000 (Aviation Gin and Mint Mobile), where this goes is anyones guess. I cannot say how this started. Was it pure luck to get involved with these two, did he see something others overlooked. Your guess is as good as mine and until his auto biography comes out we can just guess. But what is clear is that the nice Canadian guy we want as a neighbour saw that he was worth more and he got to cash in big time. This was not all luck. If you saw the advertisements he had done with Aviation Gin, Mint Mobile and one ad in Nuvei you can see that he is crazy as a doornail, but in this he gets a message across and the next thing you think is “Is there a Mint Mobile near here?” That is not the US marketing BS (like Microsoft and several other brands) it comes across as real and as a genuine article. As I see it , he sells by not selling things which is a rare ability to say the least. Yes, an actor (actresses too) are trained in this, but Ryan Reynolds is one of the few that actually used his brain and got the message across. 

As such when I see CBC give us “A recent Bloomberg piece compared Reynolds’s ventures to other celebrity-owned brands run by the likes of George Clooney, Kim Kardashian and Jay-Z. None of that guarantees success. Wrexham fell short of promotion last year. The Mint Mobile sale may still be challenged by regulators and no investment is ever a sure bet. But Reynolds has carved out a unique role and traveled a unique path to get here.” And here the issue starts. It is the ‘other celebrity-owned brands’ part. Reynolds is nothing like that. I saw the Clooney Nespresso advertisements and they are nice. Reynolds is just plain bonkers. for some reason he gets a message across and even as we have no idea what the message (a nice example is the Vasectomy mix) was. The advertisement (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtRl9HZGZEE) is bonkers in many ways, but at the end you have a smile on your face and Aviation Gin is on your mind. I don’t even like gin and I am still on the train to buy a bottle. That is not simple skill, it is more and Ryan Reynolds has it. There is every chance he is not in it alone, t might have come from brainstorming, team effort, but he is presenting the part that makes us want a Mint Mobile sim or an Aviation Gin bottle. That is marketing gold and through this brands are elevated. Even after one advertisement I reckon that Nuvei is destined for greatness. One ad did this, one ad showed us an alternative to all the other brands in the business and the other brands have nothing to show us that they are worthy. That is marketing taken to a next level and one actor has figured it out. 

The other celebrities have nothing on him, not even George Clooney with his Nespresso (who is an amazing actor in his own right). CBC touches on that in the end with “celebrity entrepreneurship ties back to the star’s connection with their audience, their ability to tell a story and keep people engaged.” It is the ability to connect to an audience through storytelling and that is the part that Ryan Reynolds has down to a fine art and he has created the wealth to show this. Not merely HIS wealth, until Ryan Reynolds got involved, who knew anything about Mint Mobile? Perhaps in Canada, but within 6 months everyone on the planet knew what Mint Mobile was and that takes marketing gravitas. As such he is not an unlikely mogul, in the end he might have been an unlikely actor who got into the big leagues. Yet both markets need a genuine person and in this Ryan delivered. We can only wait and see what comes next. If the Ottawa Senators come through for Ryan, Vancouver will be in mourning for a long time as he sets sail to Ontario and the capital of Canada, optionally listening to Tusk (Fleetwood Mac) all the way. I am merely curious on what else he will do, because when it comes to business and business intelligence he is the most real person I have seen in decades and I have seen plenty since 1991.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , ,

April 21, 2023 · 23:29

What at first we don’t grasp

Yes, that is the setting we all face, even me. We don’t get everything, we don’t see everything and we don’t put it all together at a first notion. We think at times that the stage is clear, but it I not. It is made harder by a media that cannot be trusted, that relies on emotions and flames to get digital dollars and at times some of them merely keep silent for whatever reason. In this case (I checked today) according to Google Search, only Reuters and Arab News reported on this. You see, Pakistan has placed its first Russian oil order of 100,000 barrels a day. They did so because it is discounted oil and Pakistan does not have great oil reserves and it has 231 million people, as such for them discounted oil is essential, but that also means that Russia is now getting another flow of cash to prolong the war, more important, it might now have a long standing oil customer. You see, no matter how we feel, Pakistan does not care too much about Europe and more important, the war does not touch them. It feels indifferent, but business is indifferent. Business is what Pakistan needs for its people and its commerce and in this discounted oil matters a whole lot. So what do you think other nations will do? 

As such Arab News gives us “Pakistan has placed its first order for discounted Russian crude oil under a new deal struck between Islamabad and Moscow, the country’s petroleum minister said, with one cargo to dock at Karachi port in May. The deal will see Pakistan buy crude oil only, not refined oil, and imports are expected to reach 100,000 barrels per day if the first transaction goes through smoothly, Minister Musadik Malik told Reuters on Wednesday night. “Our orders are in; we have placed that already,” he said.” We might be upset, be might get angry but we need to realise that Musadik Malik can make a case. He must look out for the needs of its country and in a commodity like oil, the discounted version matter a whole lot. People want to get angry, but why? When you get groceries, do you get the brand at $1.99 or the supermarket version at $1.29? Especially when you know that they come from the SAME factory? You feel happy that you saved $0.70 and took that from the factory mouth. I know it is not that simple, because the supermarket orders 10,000 packages to get that discount, but for the consumer it is a saving. So what happens when a nation can get a barrel at $10-$30 less? That is one to three million less and the Pakistani government pockets that savings and they are not the only one with a budget issue. 

Reuters had a photo telling us “People on motorcycles wait for their turn to get petrol at a petrol station in Karachi, Pakistan, November 25, 2021” and that is one queue, Pakistan has them at nearly every gas station, some of these people live from gas tank to gas tank and now the Pakistani government could offer it slightly cheaper. Reuters also give us “As a long-standing Western ally and the arch-rival of neighbouring India, which historically is closer to Moscow, analysts say the crude deal would have been difficult for Pakistan to accept, but its financing needs are great.” And they would be right. The larger issue is not merely how the Pakistani situation is, it is what other nations are in a similar stage, because that matters. When nations can save up to 20% they will take the deal, there I little doubt in my mind and when you explode in anger, just realise that plenty of AMERICAN corporations are still doing business with Russia, I see the list all over LinkedIn with some repetition. There is a website (at https://dontfundwar.com/directory/) were we see hundreds still doing business in Russia. Companies with EU or American origins, as such we need to act locally before we can demand anything international and lets be clear. This is not on Saudi Arabia, no on Venezuela or any other oil producing nation. This is the consequence of a global economy and we better realise that the larger picture is not set in emotion, it is set on cold hard cash and cold needs of board directors and shareholders. The funniest was Credit Suisse (well it was until UBS took over) “Stop new business in Russia while meaningfully cutting exposure by 56%” so in a bank, what is ‘new business’? And in all this what is ‘exposure’? Doing it without a marketing spin, or is there more? 

We might not grasp all elements, we might not see all the elements in play. The list for example does not expose the transitional partners that work via Asia, or Africa as such the question becomes how much scaling back was in place? For one company to stop dealing with Russia and some old granny does it via Sun City for that player is that scaling back? 

The media is all quiet about a lot of it and you get to wonder why. I reckon until someone exposes certain links then they will casually mention it on page 23 of the newspaper to cover their own asses and sone distant link on their website will mention it, well after you repair the accidental broken link. There are many reasons why some act how they do, but the simple reason is money and the revenue they are measured against. A war that impacts global economy is a dirty one. They all ignored the larger impact of Yemen because there was no linked global economy, the same was the case for Syria. Now in the Ukraine it is different and we see all kinds of issues pop up.

Enjoy your discounted meal (and day).

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,