Category Archives: Finance

March 19, 2022 · 14:10

57 seconds until the next sucker

Yes, I have heralded Meta as the next setting that will bring them billions. That is if they do not screw it up beforehand and the BBC gives us two examples. The first (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-60789802) was given to us last night with the byline ‘Australia sues Facebook over scam ads impersonating celebrities’. In that article we see “The tech giant had engaged in “false, misleading or deceptive conduct” by knowingly hosting the ads for bogus cryptocurrencies, a regulator said. The US company could face financial and other penalties.

Meta is yet to comment but has previously said it is committed to keeping scammers off its platforms.” We are also given “The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) says the ads in question used Facebook’s algorithms to target susceptible users and featured bogus quotes by Australian celebrities.” All elements of deceptive conduct, all because Meta does not properly vet the people advertising, and this is on Meta. There is no excuse, there is no “We need this advertisement to be completed today” that is merely evidence that the advertising party did not properly time manage their project. I have seen decades of stupidity that way, decades of people on the phone “I am on route, I will be there in 5 minutes” all whilst we know that it takes well over 15 minutes to get there. No time management, no proper project management and decades of excuses sees the wrong people enabling stupidity. And now Meta will feel the brung of that impact. And that was merely example one.

In example 2 (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60348334) we are given ‘‘Dangerous’ tanning products promoted by influencers’ influencers are a different story, it will still hurt Meta, but there will also be a larger station for Google. Influencers will need to feel the brunt of choices. I am not talking about people like Georgia Love (see yesterday’s article for that) but people that use their influencer status to promote “It is illegal in the UK to sell nasal sprays or injectables made with “melanotan-2”, an artificial hormone that can accelerate tanning.” Here these influencers need to learn the lesson of not doing their homework. I say that all their video’s are at that point set to zero counter, they lose all their revenue and their channel is removed. Now this is a harder setting. We see “It is illegal in the UK”, so if this influencer is American? We get it and I do not know whether this is illegal in the US, Canada, or the EU. But influencers are so driven to numbers, they do not check where they are watched. There should be an impact, but fairness remains part of this. Yet, when we see “BBC News has spoken to 20 people who have experienced complications, including lesions, fungal infections and abscesses.” Is it truly about fairness? Lives were put in danger and the influencers do not have a really good excuse. I reckon that influencers need to abstain of any product that could impact the health of another, but how to recognise that? There is a dangerous stage, so to stop it in it track now before there is a full 5G network seems essential. Personally I believe that there is no social media source that gives proper investment opportunities. An actual opportunity is for a chosen few, not social media. Social media is for blanket media solutions, get in as many as you can, as quickly as you can. As such I feel a little less for the person with “a consumer who lost more than A$650,000 (£360,000; $480,000) due to one of these scams being falsely advertised as an investment opportunity on Facebook.” Someone who does that does that is too stupid for words. Vetting goes both ways and any investor vets the sources they have and Facebook (Meta) is not a source, neither is Twitter and neither is YouTube. All three could open the door to a direct location that is optionally a good investment, but the chances of that are slim, very slim. Consider the people falling for the Facebook apartment? Someone has a rare option for an apartment in location X where finding a place is hard. Now consider that this person has friends, would you not offer it to your friends first? Would you prefer that a personal friend has a nice new place instead of a person you do not know? That is the stage and it applies to investments a much as it would apply to housing. When dealing with strangers it is in that same setting, direct and to the point. Why? Because I want to make money too, you have got to give a little to get some. So when I offer the options to Randy Lennox and Gary Slaight it is not a shakedown, but it is because they can see the solution that could drive them forward and they can see the benefit of a $50M investment that could bring them in excess of $600,000,000. It is a simple execution of math. This solution could just as easily apply to Amazon, Google a little less so. These people will not now, not ever get such offers, such real offers from Facebook, Meta, Twitter or YouTube. That is how life is and anyone trying to sell you the goods there is fooling you. 

But that is the stage Meta faces, a stage that is drowning in deceptive conduct and there is seemingly no proper vetting in place. There are laws and when the Australian ACCC makes its case Meta could face massive fines and once the first one is there all the others will come calling. The influencers are a different issue, connected to some extent, but there we see that influencers need to be stopped and removing their channel and setting their count to zero will do the trick. When they lose that much money once of twice over these people vanish, a simple equation. It does not sound fair, I get that. But these influencers decided to endanger people and there lies the rub, whether that danger exists in nations where these materials are legal, that becomes a different setting, and I will be happy to admit that I see no easy workable solution here, it starts with Meta. That much is a given at present.

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March 17, 2022 · 17:40

Ding, ding, prices are going up

After I wrote ‘A symphony in only two parts?’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/16/a-symphony-in-only-two-parts/) two articles appeared (might have been more, but these two lighted up). The first one is from a place called oilprice dot com. The article (at https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Arabia-Considers-Ditching-The-Dollar-For-Chinese-Oil-Sales.html) gives us ‘Saudi Arabia Considers Ditching The Dollar For Chinese Oil Sales’ with the added “According to the report, the talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom.” OK, that is fine, but I reckon the way Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud has been treated by some will not have helped. Moreover if China sets the barricades of pushing forward and aiding SAMI in getting the internal growth desired these pushes might come to fruition. We are also given “China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports, and if priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency, and set the Chinese currency on a path to becoming a global petroyuan reserve currency.” I feel uncertain to answer that part, but consider that there is a limit to oil, consider that China will request not the 25% they get now, but 30%, with an overcapacity of amount X, now consider that Saudi Arabia (ARAMCO) does that and therefor the US (and west) will now receive 5% minus X less. Prices will skyrocket. More importantly in the last hours we saw ‘Boris Johnson Visits U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, Seeking More Oil’ and here too we see the British PM go home without any commitments, CNN even gives us ‘Biden demands faster drop in gas prices as oil tumbles’, so where is he going to demand that from? Russia? Venezuela? UAE? Saudi Arabia? The man who was desperately outspoken about making Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah is now telling that same person to drop prices? Man does karma suck and then some? We see the stage of painful karma in article one, but why article two? That is seen as we contemplate the title ‘Saudi Arabia’s Oil-For-Yuan Bid Won’t Threaten the Dollar’ (at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-16/saudi-arabia-s-oil-for-yuan-proposal-won-t-threaten-the-dollar) it is a good and decent piece, but an opinion piece none the less. There we get “Is there a situation more absurd than two of the world’s most dollar-dependent economies promising to free themselves from the exorbitant burden of the dollar?” I believe that a few gaps are there. This is no longer a ‘too big too fail’ market. The US has a debt surpassing $30,000,000,000,000 and that debt is growing by billions a day. In addition in this economy that is picking itself up fuel prices could (could being the operative word) go up by 20% before October and then winter comes. You all watched the income of dreaded winter in Game of Thrones, now you get to see it in your neighbourhood (if you are north enough to see it for yourself). So the quote “it’s inevitable that the perennial chatter about the yuan challenging the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency should be revived. Such talk has always been fanciful — but it’s even more unlikely right now.” The man is not incorrect, but these talks have been going on for 6 years and in that time the largest one has surpassed a point of no return point in debts, and number two and three (EU and Japan) are not that far behind, they will take extensive damage if the dollar topples. Yes, we all here that noise “It will never happen” but really? How much debt will that take and when it happens, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will have to do whatever is best for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The writer then gives us “The yuan punches far below its weight in terms of foreign exchange transactions, and the dollar punches above its weight” which to some degree gives us that Saudi Arabia might consider it and when the oil shortages start adding up, that move of Saudi Arabia solidifying longer and stronger walls with China the stage is partially set. Life in the US and EU will become unbearably hard. Even now Japan is trying to set up new stimulus packages and we saw how great that was for the EU, trillions in added debt and no restarted economy. Ad there is a direct link in support between the US, EU and Japan. So when these support structures collapse we see a sort of house of cards impact and that affects the global economy, no matter how you want to present that picture. Consider the simple stage of California. In Los Angeles fuel costs $5.876, now consider adding 20% to that, all whilst life in Los Angeles (all over California) is as expensive as it ever was. With the shortage of drivers and deliveries that market will sure to set a few more stages. In 11 districts in California fuel prices are (presently) the highest ever, so add 20% to that? You think it is impossible? Think again. The Middle East has given NO guarantees that there will be more fuel, it basically has no interest to do that, or to lower prices and around the corner is China enjoying the commercial stage the US (EU too) pushed themselves in and they get to direct the fallout of that setting. 

Now, there needs the be a clear message. “I could be wrong” an educated guess remains a guess, yet what I found is coming from decent sources and because the writers do not want to look into the dark corner does not mean that dark corner goes away, it merely means that whatever comes from there will come less expected and hits the people squarely on the jaw. And the setting that we see now has been growing month after month for about 2-3 years. So the people in that corner WANT this to happen. Like myself they are hoping for that fat bonus and some of them have received guarantees (I did not) So the people pushing this have an interest to push this. I do not care that much unless the 3.75% bonus comes my way. At that point I would state ‘Push all you want’ because that too is the result of a commerce based world and now the inhumane setting of that becomes clear. The US never cared when they got to call the shots, but that is now no longer the case is it? So when we see a president giving CNN ‘Biden demands faster drop in gas prices as oil tumbles’, they seemingly forget that oil prices were dropping when there was still supply at a higher price and there is a decent chance that these prices will go back up before those reserves are completely gone. And when they are gone oil volatility will hit American households all over (EU too). The dream of every family it own car will be to live in a stage of perpetual work at home because the people cannot afford to go to the office and then reality comes calling double quick. So perhaps yes, I do hope I get my bonus, if only to retire with a will to live and I am not alone in that setting. There are millions like me all over the world. 

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March 16, 2022 · 09:31

A symphony in only two parts?

That is the question at times. We see two events, two articles and we forget that there are a dozen other connections. I am not different, at times I overlook them too, not always but frequently. It is a mix of a larger stage, more connections, more unregistered events. Yet for now we start with the first nail in the coffin of American economy. The article from Reuters (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-invites-chinas-xi-visit-wsj-2022-03-14/) gives us ‘Saudi Arabia invites China’s Xi to visit’, the article states that this could be as early as may. Right before the Midterms in November 2022 the US is now likely to face that dozens upon dozens of billions walk from the US side straight into the hands of China (and me missing out on commission, darn). Is this a given? No, of course not. There could be a dozen reasons why President Xi Jinping might be visiting. But how often has ANY Chinese president done that? And Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud is eager to set his defence and SAMI to higher values and I was clear in the two years that this was coming and as far as I can tell, President Biden has soured the waters enough for this to become a reality. Some focusses on weapons being sold, I say in THIS economy you should not ignore the nations Saudi Arabia, India, Egypt, who are the largest importers. In this stage where the US HELD 37% and China only 5.2% the stage is now set where China can progress a lot higher on that list and should they get the bulk of Saudi and SAMI attention there is a clear stage where the new numbers will represent (2023/2024) could state that the US hold 25% and China then could be holding 17.2%, it then places China right next to Russian exports and the US a lot more to that stage, a stage where it is now an almost fair fight between the US, Russia and China, but to be clear was that EVER an economic stage where you WANT a fair fight? A stage where China overtakes both France and Germany as supplier? This is the stage that could inhabit the Middle East and that is merely the beginning. You see the partnerships that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Egypt have also sets Egypt in the sights of China as a defence trade partner, a stage a few people overlooked and that drives Chinese export achievable needs up a lot more. So the damage to the US might increase over the coming year and those who want to be in denial, go right ahead, the article with ““The crown prince and Xi are close friends and both understand that there is huge potential for stronger ties,” the report quoted a Saudi official as saying. “It is not just ‘They buy oil from us and we buy weapons from them’.”” I like the part “It is not just ‘They buy oil from us and we buy weapons from them’” the best, it might not be merely just, for China that is a good deal in several ways and when that deal gives China more oil, it will mean that it gives the US less oil a stage they feared for some time and the oil market has been volatile on these fears alone. So when I was mentioning that whatever relief the oil prices give us today, tomorrow will be different and now we see that fear come to fruition, not immediately mind you, but the price of fuel will go up again and again, how high? I cannot tell but the stage where we saw the American administration make statements like “You can pump more oil, so pump more oil!”, it was nice but there is now every chance that the extra oil (plus a little more) goes to China. Will the UAE do the same? I cannot tell, but the US better become best buddies with Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Sheikh Mohammed ibn Rashid Al Maktoum, because if I see this right, the US will need every friend it can muster in their oil needs (a few others too) and in that need they better realise that catering to Iran will not merely be unrewarding, it will soon become dangerous on more than one field as well. I mentioned two years ago that yielding the Middle East to China would be one of the most dangerous things ever, and that was merely economically. Now we see one field exposed and the construction opportunities in Neom could also go towards China, a stage that makes the US (EU too) more and more irrelevant, a stage the US themselves threw upon their own economic needs. Now that it is becoming more and more realistic these people will not be allowed to cry with the “Why oh why” statement like little chihuahua’s. Or as my grandmother used to say “You do not bite the hand that feeds you” a practical lesson that the US will now face within the next 3 months and the 2 years that follow. A stage that the Biden Administration failed to spot in some stage of ignorance and now as we see it optionally unfold (it might be that President Xi Jinping is visiting to buy real estate in Neom) some might see the dangers that are coming the next year or so and the impact over the next decade. I merely loose out on commission (oh, poor poor me). 

 

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March 15, 2022 · 18:49

WTF are they doing now?

Even now, even as I am contemplating new things, I am also considering other elements from the previous article (about the slot machines), I figured out a few more things, but it seems wrong to put them here. I could, but who does it serve? Not me and not most people, it might interest the wrong people. Now in case of a previous article where I designed a weapon to sink the Iranian fleet, it makes sense to put it online (not merely to show support to the kingdom of Saudi Arabia), but mainly to show Iran that a lot of people have had enough of them. In the case of the slot machines, it serves the wrong crowd, yet the elements that I did not mention might find its use somewhere else, which might make for an interesting security setting for people like Google and Amazon, so I keep it in my back pocket. Part of it is already in my 5G IP, so there is that. 

My issue today is with the BBC. They gave us this morning (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60736185) ‘Roman Abramovich: New evidence highlights corrupt deals’, I get it, everyone is on the anti-Russia beat. For the mot I do not care, Russia will find out the hard way how stupid they have been. At present they are seen as the weak player. It has taken them 3 weeks to get here and so far Ukraine is still free. The germans in WW2 took most of Western Europe in that same time. My issue is with “The Chelsea owner made billions after buying an oil company from the Russian government in a rigged auction in 1995. Mr Abramovich paid around $250m (£190m) for Sibneft, before selling it back to the Russian government for $13bn in 2005.”

They give us “The Russian billionaire has already admitted in a UK court that he made corrupt payments to help get the Sibneft deal off the ground.” As well as “he described in court how the original Sibneft auction was rigged in his favour and how he gave Mr Berezovsky $10m to pay off a Kremlin official” my issue here is that BBC Panorama is stated to be so competent. If so, what case was it? Which court was it? These are parts that I would have added for value. Something like “On [date] in [court location] the following statement was given by Roman Abramovich”, this isn’t rocket science, this is the stage of PROPER journalism! As such the setting of “BBC Panorama has obtained a document that is thought to have been smuggled out of Russia.

The information was given to the programme by a confidential source, who says it was secretly copied from files held on Mr Abramovich by Russian law enforcement agencies” is window dressing at best. I reckon that BBC Panorama likes cloak and dagger words like ‘smuggling’ and ‘secretly’, all whilst the initial issue was in a British court. As for the Russian deal, he used opportunity to get a nice deal that got him $13,000,000,000, to be honest, who cares? So when we are given “The document says that the Russian government was cheated out of $2.7bn in the Sibneft deal – a claim supported by a 1997 Russian parliamentary investigation. The document also says that the Russian authorities wanted to charge Mr Abramovich with fraud”, as such was he really a friend of Putin? The article gives us more questions (overall) than answers. And the fact that ‘Russian authorities’ wanted to charge him and did not calls for even more questions. This looks like a simple draw in the blank space and the lack of information is staggering, is that what BBC Panorama amounts to now? And when we get “trick the government and not pay the money that this company was really worth” we ‘merely’ see a government that did not do its homework and how is that the fault of Abramovich? So when we get these emotional elements with “the document says” what EVIDENCE do they hold, what is factually verifiable? Me? I do not care, I really do not. I do not care for soccer, or Chelsea so there is that too and I find these lame articles from a place that states that they are trustworthy whilst they refuse to properly investigate the murderer of Lady Diana Spencer (Martin Bashir) that is how I see it, so personally I think that BBC Panorama needs to up their game by a lot. This article was a wash, washing what is unclear but it was not the stuff the BBC and BBC Panorama were known for in the past.

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March 14, 2022 · 21:41

Two issues connected

It is easy to see the connection, but at that point one wonders whether the real connections are made. The first article is ‘White House faces oil standoff with Saudi Arabia and UAE as prices soar’, the article (at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/13/white-house-us-joe-biden-oil-output-prices-saudi-arabia-uae) gives us “Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Mohammed bin Salman, and his counterpart in the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed, are yet to agree to a phone call with the west’s most powerful man”, my takeaway is the question whether the ‘west’s most powerful man’ is actually that. We also get “Each capital is a major supplier of oil, with excess capacity, which would soften the effect on US consumers through fuel prices before midterm elections in November that threaten Democratic control of Congress” and this is enough for article one. We see a few issues, the oil pries are still soaring and so far that so called most powerful man has not really achieved anything, has he? 

In the second article called ‘Iran suspends talks with Saudi, slams Riyadh’s executions’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-suspends-talks-with-saudi-arabia-nour-news-2022-03-13/), which is kinda hilarious, especially as Iran had 299 documented executions in 2021. Yet the story also gives us ““Iran has unilaterally suspended talks with Saudi Arabia,” Nor News said, without providing a reason. It said no specific date had been scheduled for a new round of talks”, not unexpected, but that is the effect of diplomacy with a toddler like Iran. You see I think there is more to it. I think Russia is trying to put the pressure on the west, the US is the weakest with its ‘nuclear deal’ ego. And as Iran suspends talks they continue to enrich uranium. Delay after delay until it is too late. 

Am I correct?
To be honest, I am not certain, I could very well be wrong. But consider Russia entanglement in the middle east and especially with Iran, it wants to play tits for dad (oops) by withholding the milk (oil) and this play seems to be actually working out. President Biden did this in part to himself. And now the larger stage is pushed into directions it should not have been going in. Yemeni’s and Syrians feel more and more betrayed by the west, and honestly, I cannot blame them for that. 

My issue is that Russia is playing a way too dangerous game, as they are now part of the delays, Iran might finish what it wants and when that goes the wrong way and Israel gets its first nuclear detonation, the bars are sealed. The USA must prove its word or be seen as flaccid and irrelevant on the political stage. And their play (as I mentioned in previous articles) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was badly managed and even worse constructed and now that the US is desperate for cheaper oil they will feel the sting of biting the hand that was feeding them. It was bad already and now there is every indication that Russia is making matters worse via Iran. 

Russia is the connection. It is souring the Nuclear deal, and it has a handle on the Middle East to some degree, how much I cannot tell, but some who can are not talking (for obvious reasons) and that sets the sliding scales for the US who is now on a worsening scale economically. Even as some state that oil prices are going down, I personally feel that it is temporary. It is nowhere near the old price and there are chances that it will go back to $123.70 (March 8th) and optionally higher than that. President Biden could influence it positively, but if he does not succeed then the first sign of failure is shown and the Russians want that because for them the Republicans are easier to deal with (allegedly). For President Biden it all hangs here, He is down in the senate, but if he loses even one more seat the senate will be overwhelmingly republican and that COULD happen. He has a majority in the house, but only by 11 seats and there is no guarantee that he can hold onto them. When the house is lost as well, the Democratic Party will find obstacle after obstacle and that is what they signed on for. 

The failures in the middle east, especially Iran will haunt this administration for a long time to come. And the oil prices? Well that is still up n the air, but there are indications that this will not go their way either, it is wholly due to the way they dealt with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 

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March 10, 2022 · 13:18

The next Furlong

Yes, that happens. We all look at races, we all enter horse racing (not betting I mean) and then we look as the wrecks stack up. This story goes back to 2019, I am certain I made mention before then. It was ‘The seventh guest’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/06/21/the-seventh-guest/) when I wrote “I would like to discuss the purchase of 20-30 Chengdu J-20 fighters. In light of both a first order discount, as well as a student discount (we are all students on the path of life), I believe that should the talks be successful, that 20-30 planes at a unit cost of $27.35 million (with rebates, discounts and commission applied), in addition the 2 years of full service with no regards to hours flown, mileage traveled or missiles fired. This is based on 2016 flyaway cost. The benefit is that these fighters will be directly engaging Iranian forces and as such you will have access to a massive amount of data enabling you to start on the 6th generation fighter, optionally making you the first country to have one. We would also be interested in the testing of the Xian H-20 prototype that is now nearing completion. If the specs are as they are claiming to be, it will help us in removing morale from Tehran and from the IRGC as a whole. In this the unofficial word is that the sky is the limit as regarding to the price of this place (my 2.17% commission still applies). My client is ready to upgrade several army based parts (both light and heavy guns), however I hope that this part can be tabled until Iran decides to attack directly, at which point Saudi Arabian boots on Iranian ground becomes a direct first”, and certain people laughed, the laughed loud and pointed at me. It would never come this far. And now we see (at https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1254377.shtml) ’FC-31 stealth fighter spearheads display of cutting-edge Chinese equipment at Saudi Arabia’s 1st World Defense Show’, there we see “The Chinese arms industry brought a wide selection of cutting-edge weapons and equipment, including the FC-31 stealth fighter jet, to the ongoing first edition of Saudi Arabia’s World Defense Show in Riyadh. China can provide finished advanced gear and also transfer technology that enables domestic development and production, analysts said on Tuesday.” And although I lose out on a commission of 3.75% (my life sucks), the stage I saw coming in 2019 is now becoming a harsh reality for the US and the EU. Not laughing now, are they? And it is not even the worst of the setting either. That is seen when we add ‘Saudi Arabia and UAE leaders ‘decline calls with Biden’ amid fears of oil price spike’ (at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/09/saudi-arabia-and-uae-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-amid-fears-of-oil-price-spike) the other part I discussed a few times over is coming to fruition (for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia), the entire US pariah setting on lack of EVIDENCE is a bed they themselves made. You can call the consumer names again and again, but realise that this person can shop somewhere else and can not deliver to you, ask any supermarket, ask any grocer, butcher or baker. And now these stations are coming out, China is sitting on the sidelines laughing loudly. And the entire issue in the EU is not helping any. All setting I saw YEARS ago and now it is out on the 20 yard line the US is trying to set some premise to avoid the setting that was clear in the open. So when we now see the US playing courtesan to whomever will supply cheap oil, what was the direct label for such a person? It was clear as day and I illuminated that danger years ago and the blog is ‘evidence’ that I did so. A station that could have been clearly avoided from the start and that I perhaps the biggest failure of all. If I can see it and I am not the most clever person around (around two IQ points below Alan Turing) so why did THEY not see this coming? The lack of long term vision is staggering and the need for “also transfer technology that enables domestic development and production” implies that the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud implies that he is now on track with the promise towards 50% in house manufacturing via SAMI (Saudi Arabian Military Industries), so the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia gets even with the people playing with them, these players are massively losing out on revenue (me on commission, darn) and these players are now in a much worse position all whilst China becomes the top dog yielding the bone the EU and US are basically fighting over. 

As such we now see how much a failure (for the US especially) Davos in the desert 2019 was. So whilst some state it was a ‘shameless return of business and government leaders to Saudi Arabia’, we can now clearly see that it is about to become a massive trove of revenue that could pass the US and EU by on a few levels and they did this themselves. It was not unforeseen and as such I wonder what the next stupid act we see coming from the US and EU? Contemplating larger concession towards Venezuela and Iran? I cannot speak on the Venezuelan side, I know too little, but the concessions towards Iran will upset both the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the State of Israel even more. And both could optionally sour the milk for both the EU and US for any 5G they hope to set in Egypt. Another place of revenue loss, was that not clear to these people?

As such I wonder how the next furlong will play out, because in the end the US and the EU are in a series of horse races. One race is defence spending, another is telecom spending and then there are still the infrastructure and manufacturing races on the schedule. All now with both the US and EU degraded to second or even third choice, because whatever you think the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia needs to do, it needs to do what is best for the kingdom and that leaves Russia as a contender (for now). Several races with less than optimal choices and it could have been avoided to a much larger degree. Do not take my word, investigate and form your own opinion, but as I see it it soon becomes another stage where I get to say ‘Told you so!’

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March 10, 2022 · 03:48

Direction of my tech

Yup, that was what I was contemplating. But only for a little while. I reckon that my 5G IP is pretty complete for a first version. There are more sides to contemplate, but it becomes to much like speculating where others might want to go. Or as some would go with (Microsoft) Contemplating where we want consumers to go next. I do not think that is the best path to take. I have several roads mapped, yet I suddenly remembered Tim Minchin, he said something to the effects of (altered for my case here) “If you chase orgasms, you’ll never get one, if you aspire to give other people orgasms you might get a dose of pleasure in the process” It actually applies to tech too. If you hunt on the statements on what people are supposed to need, you will miss the mark too often. If you give the consumer what they will need you could benefit too. So my IP was set to the consumer, to the retailer and to increase their safety. Weirdly enough as I was doing that, I came up with a few ADDITIONAL sides that the IP could deliver giving the people what they might (and might is important) need. In that process I opened a larger revenue stream on a bigger foundation. Yes, it requires Google to add functionality, but there is every indication that they will go there. That indication is set to two foundations. The first is that they need to stay ahead of Apple and others, and giving that advantage allows for this. They also need to set a larger conditional stream, based on a new metric. You see, for now we see cpc (cost per click), cpm (cost per thousand impressions) and a few more. I believe that 2022/2023 will proved that they need to add cpl (cost per location) a niche and targeted view that more likely applies to real estate and local business, but it sets a targeted revenue stream for walk videos, location videos and there are thousands of videos. GoPro alone has 10 million followers, I have not seen clear metrics on walkabout videos, but they are there in the tens of thousands and when you link that to Google Maps that market starts getting interesting. One walk on 5th venue video has 487,957 views. Consider how many real estate people would be interested if they can grab that cpl? And it is global. New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Toronto, Montreal, Paris, London, Munich, Amsterdam, Stockholm. Villages in Switzerland, Bavaria, Austria that need is already visibly increasing. The moment we have a connected Hybrid view with Meta that need will pretty much explode and it works for Google to have this, there are thousands of walk video makers, allowing them to flourish will enable more revenue (and Google was never sad about more revenue). For this consider the realtor Sotheby’s International Realty (London), when that option arrives, do you think it walks away from 736,891 views in just a few days? And yes, there will be more views in larger cities with tourist appeal, but when you search for a house or apartment in any place, who does not check out what YouTube has to offer? When these parts became clear to me, I adjusted the 5G IP I had, I added for a Hybrid functionality because that is where we all want to go. Even now, even as too many have NO CLUE what Facebook (now Meta) is up to, I already see that coming. And those with a gaming PC (especially with a second graphics card) will be ready in 2023/2024 when that is offered. I foresaw the need, I considered that addition and as I saw that there were more options, more choices to allow for and basically adhering to the consumer needs got me there. I come from the IT services branch, not the sales branch, so I hear what people needed, I converted to fill that need, not tell them that there is an alternative with some lame ‘What if’ statement. I reckon that 2024 will be the year when salespeople will finally put that sales tactic to bed. They want what is at point A, so you get them there. I found a method to allow industry 7,8,11,17, and 21 to enjoy what point A offers as well. Yes, I did not offer this to industry 1 through to 23 because that was not the goal and all those sales people telling me to do that, I say ‘Why?’ There is a group of consumers that have a need, that need is satisfied and offering 5 other groups to offer what they might need is nice if they are there. But the rest? What rest? They are seemingly somewhere else. Stop catering to ‘wannabe’s’ and ‘what if’ people. 

Two distinct systems with the grasp of several and a third system is starting to take shape. The two systems will have access and enable all kinds of software solutions and there I found a few options, but some of the changes seem pointless until Meta truly launches, when it does I will see all the wannabe’s running scared and running in panic not to lose the revenue. Like a wall of water coming at them and they are holding a one litre beaker. Not to stop the wave, but to fill their beaker for themselves. Some will fill it, some will not and then they look at the second ave coming, all whilst funnel giving the consumers and retailers a long term revenue though the application of a mobile pipeline. Not a pipeline ON mobiles, but a pipeline that is mobile and Hybrid will stamp that need out pretty quickly. I was fortunate enough that my need can satisfy that side in addition of what it was already doing. So whilst I believe that 2024 will be ruled by Meta, Google and Amazon, they will not be alone. I believe in that new setting Adobe will be uniquely placed to set new standards and what was a $13,000,000,000 annual revenue company could double, optionally even triple. All options that Microsoft let fly by, they relied on hype and spin and in the new setting that will not fly. It is like watching IT in 1998, all trying to sell concepts. In a time when Google, Apple, Amazon, Meta and Adobe have proven themselves, we need not wait for some roadmap of a concept product. The people have had enough of that and they are looking for alternatives. That is why I believe that Adobe will make larger waves and as a graphics company they do have the Rolls Royce solutions out there, so they do have the edge. 

It does not matter whether I am right or wrong, do you (consumer/retailer) have what you need to get the job done? Are you ready for 2023? You need to start thinking there. Most people and businesses do not have the money to buy in January 2023 what is required. And you need to think longer term, you need to think that what you buy in 2023 needs to be good to last you to December 2025. I countered that in the past by not buying the latest, but by buying one model older. It was often 40% cheaper, merely 10% slower and would last me 2-3 years. That is the stage you need to think of now. Because when Meta is introduced it will impact people and businesses. It will not end for the ‘old’ Facebook, but the shift will start, so make sure you have what you need. This is not merely for high end places, for expensive stuff. Simple pharmacies, book shops, cafe’s. For them the market will alter as well, they need to see where they are and how far they can go at present. They could wait and lose the market of course, but that is up to them. As for the direction of my tech? It is out in the open, because I tried to adhere to what the people needed and what they are most likely to need. But in the end (Q4 2022) I might have to offer alterations and additions to more closely adhere to their needs and I can, because national 5G will not be ready in many places, which works in my favour as well (yay me). 

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March 9, 2022 · 17:08

Microsoft, for cold laundry

Yes, there is a need to go there. You see there is the setting that we kick Microsoft as a civic duty, but how long do you need to kick them for it to be regarded as for personal pleasure? Yes, that is the question and it is more to the point than you think it is. Two days ago I wrote ‘What we hope for’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/07/what-we-hope-for/) there I gave the setting that Microsoft is in more trouble than we think they are. They are losing the gaming niche, the ‘tablet’ niche, the cloud niche, the SaaS niche and optionally the office niche as well. That is a lot of terrain to lose. I also stated there ““Microsoft is in talks to acquire cybersecurity research and incident response company Mandiant, according to people familiar with the discussions, a deal that would bolster efforts to protect customers from hacks and breaches”, you see, it is not merely “bolster efforts to protect customers”, it is about preventing and protecting the customers you have and as we are seeing several Microsoft issues”, a few hours ago I learned that they do not even have that. ArabNews gives us ‘Google buys Mandiant for $5.4 billion’, the article (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2038611/business-economy) “Google is fortifying its cloud services with a $5.4 billion acquisition of the cybersecurity firm Mandiant, the companies announced Tuesday”, as such the clouds around Microsoft seem increasingly less secure soon enough. Microsoft will find someone (I think) and they need to find someone and set the stage to a stronger Microsoft. Yet as I see it they lose gaming to Amazon (I was happy to help Amazon do that), their Surface thingamajig will lose to the Apple iPad more and more, and the Mac Air book takes what is left and the cloud is increasingly less and less secure, as such they are losing market share to all the other cloud providers. The SaaS niche is different, it relies on the cloud, lose one and you tend to lose the other as well to some degree. So now the last straw for Microsoft is their good old Office backbone. It is firm (for now) but the cyber issues will affect their mail system and it already has had a few issues. But the big push could come from a very different angle. Adobe will be the largest player in several ways. There is additional consideration that when business aligns for Meta, Adobe will get a fair share of that business and should they push for the an ‘office setting’ they could clearly clean house. The last setting is pure speculation. There is no educated guess in play. They need their version of Excel, Word, Powerpoint and Mail versions to impact Microsoft even larger, but that is not outside of their abilities to do so and moreover, as Meta will go in 2024 Adobe will feel forced to go there. If only to cater to the millions of GoPro users who will see new business ventures in a Hybrid setting of the Web, Web3.0 and Meta. I think that Google lacks more elements than Adobe does so Adobe is in a good place. No matter how we think it will go, I feel more and more certain that Microsoft is about to lose a hell of a lot more than they bargained for. I wonder if they ever saw that part coming as they increasingly believed the spin they put out there as well. Consider their 2018 setting: ‘The most powerful console in the world’, it was surpassed by the weakest (Nintendo Switch), it will optionally also be surpassed by the Amazon Luna (if I get it my way, ha ha ha). At that point, what did $68.7 billion get them (as well as the $7.5 billion for Bethesda)? Seventy five billion to end up in 4th position in gaming? Google buying what they need for Cyber security? One could argue that soon the buzzards will circle Microsoft, but that might be a little too negative. 

I saw Microsoft grow from nothing to the behemoth that decided what we wanted. Now it is turning out that too many are eager to find someone else, in too many IT fields. There will be Microsoft lovers out there, eager to state that I am wrong. I could be, I freely admit it, but when you put the facts together, when you collect the information out there and the weaknesses that they show gives a larger rise to my version (which has speculative sides) and the largest setting is the one we do not have. What will Adobe do in 2023/2024. It will impact several players a lot.

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March 9, 2022 · 11:40

OK, this is new.

I got another IP idea, but it is not for me. Well, it is for me, but it is not in a direction that I am set to, so I put it here so that someone can get rich on that part of the equation. The idea came from super cold ankles and the larger stage we see now in Europe with heating prices that go through the roof. The setting started with an idea that grew and grew. 

So in the first part I was thinking of warm socks (see image), the top of the sock is loose and slightly thicker. So that we keep our ankles warm. The socks have plastic elements. In the tip a soft-bar, behind the heel two knobs, these socks connect to the sole, slide the bar in the sole and press the knobs to the heel. These elements are the stage to keep the soles stuck to the sock. We need to wash the socks every now and then. We could go for some velcro bottom of the sock that connects to the sole of the shoe, but I think it would damage the sock more and quicker as well. There is the thought to create. Sneaker that has the same materials a normal sneakers, but they are thinner and softer to be more representative of socks. Both are options, yet I believe that the energy prices will amount to so much more over the next 16-23 months that people will go for such a solution to keep their feet warm than anything else. If I am correct it will be a market with millions of consumers. I went to four shoe stores today, but no one has anything like that and they had not heard of anything like that either. 

So I have to admit that this is new, I never think in these directions and there might be a solution out there. But in one shopping mall that services well over 37,000 not one store had the item, or knowledge of the item. Oh, and there were three large (Wall-mart sided) shops as well, so I have to wonder if there is anything out there in that direction. So I am putting it here in case there is a serious Al Bundy out there with the need to create something a lot of people will need soon enough. You see in some places heating oil is up 70%-90% and that is just the US, the prices in the EU are going through the roof and other places are not out of the woods either, so I see a multi million consumer market. So was I the first to see it?

I honestly cannot tell, but I am putting it out here for people considering their own IP. So good luck and good hunting. 

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March 9, 2022 · 03:24

It’s not the car

Yes, the car is not in play, well not directly anyway. It all started with yesterday’s article. After I wrote ‘Opensource GEOINT’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/08/opensource-geoint/) I started to brood on a few items. And as I brooded on a few more connections I realised that my 5G IP will double in value before 2025, that is a lot! It is a lot in any setting, no matter the innovation you bring, there is a certain value, a certain base that sets the value and beyond the base it can grow, no one denies it, but these are not the 90’s. To get into a NEW field is pretty unheard of, but to connect to it not that much, so the doubling worried me a little. You see, when any person sees a doubling of value (upping by 100%) that person tends to be delusional, anyone will agree to that, so I started to dig around and I was contemplating issues for a lot of today (whilst watching Christian Bale as the Batman) then something came to me. You see I suddenly realised that this is not about Covid, wars or anything else. When the rest of the world wakes up (at some point they will) their Business Intelligence side will want to connect, want to set markers. In the first it is too ‘correlate’ the old marketing to the new setting. It will not work, yet they will try anyway. It is then that some of the hardware people will consider Hybrid technology, first 1.0, but it is Hybrid 2.0 and Hybrid 3.0 that matters. You see, the people, businesses and wannabe entrepreneurs want the connection between Hybrid and real life on one system and there is where we will see the interactions and the exploding Hybrid technologies in play. For me that will work great. My IP was never designed for that, but can evolve to this in simple ways. Hence the doubling and when you sell something that can occupy BOTH spaces the hardware will sell itself a lot easier. Even now I am seeing the evolution go further, go beyond what I initially imagined and now it becomes more than I envisioned. When sold I leave a historic legacy for whomever comes next, for whomever is willing to dream the next stage of innovation, a place business minded iterator can no longer go. I reckon that by 2026 others will want to get into that field but for now I have a 4 year advantage. I reckon that is symmetry. You see in a previous working life. I gave my bosses the idea to set up a a system where people will get free websites, and marketing will be at the axial informing them all. You will state that this is Facebook, but I gave the idea to them in 1997, 4 years BEFORE Facebook. Now I get to do it again in a different way and those bosses will never be trusted again. They can read up on THEIR mission statement, I actually feel vindicated now, never imagined that this would happen and when the IP is sold (hopefully to Google or Amazon) I can relax and enjoy my early retirement in a comfortable place. 

In the mean time I will consider what else I can do to add to the IP I have now and contemplate what the Hybrid could bring me, where people (at present) are not looking yet. It is the simple difference between a business intelligence person limited to an Excel view of life and the dreamer who sees the paintings and wonders how the colours were applied and then realises that another brush could do the trick, a small wink at ‘After a fact to begin a fact’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/12/16/after-a-fact-to-begin-a-fact/) where I came up with a new paint spray solution (OK, to be honest it was for military reasons) and I am not a painter. How many paint sprays could be sold in that manner? How many painters does the world have, how many could use a new brush to improve or even alter their styles? The excel person will state that the group is not big enough. I merely state it was a beginning. When Meta takes off it will grab billions and my IP will merely grow internationally and I get my royalties (hopefully) when things work out, but twice in a row I got there 4 years early, not the worst headline to live with. And still, it is not about the car, I never really needed one.

 

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