January 8, 2024 · 14:01

One side of business

I have had some questions thrown at me, some very nasty ones. You see, there is a massive difference between me and Americans. They are all about “What gives me the best deal” because it is one and optionally valid path to take. I do not believe in that path. You see I have always and forever been about “What shows me to be the best return on investment” and I believe it is the best path to take in this day and age. Would I refuse a decent offer by Amazon (either Jeff Bezos or Andy Jassy)? No, of course not. I would have some reservations, but that is OK. For that same setting I would accept a decent offer by Sergei Brin or Sundar Pichai (if they pass the qualifying question). To be a good source towards THEIR return on investment matters. OK, in case of Google there are a few other issues, but for the most it should be fine. Microsoft is out and they are pretty much done for but I will return to that part shortly.

So why UAE?
It is merely one place and there are two players Emaar Properties (Mohamed Alabbar) and DAMAC properties (Hussain Sajwani), both multibillionaires and both on the top of their field. In this (as reported yesterday) Emaar could see an additional growth of what I speculated was “an additional stage that would bring more than Dh680 million.” This is not a massive growth, this would be the impact if my solution brought a mere 1% to that table. Anything more and it becomes a serious amount of money. We can posture and speculate on how much more and you can do that all you like. It matters not. What matters is that these two gentleman see what I can bring to the table. IP with global implications. The fact that it will be registered and tested in Dubai first is merely one way to look at it. The registration gives them a 25 years advantage and that is what matters. It opens doors for players like Huawei to get additional traction in an area they never considered before and all because American players stayed asleep. And that is merely the beginning. The moment I prove one side, the other doors will open and they have several parts to grow in. Even now, only last night did I consider another path for one of my IP parts. This will merely be an innovation patent but it gives the implementors time. Time that places like America no longer have. We see all the news on ‘growing consumer confidence’ but it is like yapping to reeds. You see America is down 33,000 billion dollars. The interest impact will slow them down more and more and in this Microsoft is starting to wage a losing presentation war. Even now (actually a few hours ago) we were shown “If Windows continues to shed market share, it could hurt other parts of the business and the company’s efforts to monetise AI.” Is this a surprise? I predicted this BEFORE June 24th 2023 when I wrote ‘Path of a slippery slope’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/24/path-of-a-slippery-slope/) As such I saw this well over 6 months ago. That list goes on for while and whilst we are all about the presentation in the end results are what matters and It seems that the tycoons of the UAE have figured that out. In addition the woke and impassible setting in America will hinder these larger companies in several ways. So you tell me when these two tycoons get a technology advantage, one that could have opportunities on a global setting. What do you think they will do? And that is merely a first step. We all know the first step is the hardest, but anything after that becomes a lot easier when you show that there is a return on investment. They would never hesitate to pay me 12.5% on this setting (with an annual bonus of course on achieved sales) and when it shows to be more than 1% the equation drastically changes for them. That is the win for them (and me of course) and in all this America no longer mattered. They are losing too much money. Presentation firms are staging ‘presented success’ all whilst we can see that Microsoft lost their marketshare 5 times over and now someone else is seeing that they are shedding market share in their office and OS environment a place they never worried about before. Suddenly that 100 billion for gaming becomes an anchor around their necks and they will have little or no winnings to show for that for some time to come. They can present all they want but Tencent Is about to launch its own solutions and they stand to gain well over 50 million gamers. And well before phase two is completed they stand to get within 2 years what Microsoft required to get in 81 months (58 million units) that is what America is about to face. The sure thing of presenting consumers confidence all whilst these consumers see new shores and all these shores aren’t American firms. They are other shores and the only one who has a chance at present is Amazon (Google walked away from that). It is merely one side of business but it is a side America ignored all for the need of ego and presentations. As such as the stage goes on at present my prediction for December 2026 is still on the table, but now there is additional IP and none if it is going to Microsoft, they lose out yet again. How much longer until America is getting the gist that the party is over and the wrong people are making the decisions. 

In all this nothing is new, yet for me it remains to be a return on investment, a lesson greed driven America hasn’t figured out yet and that works for Huawei who is implementing cloud centres in riyadh and I reckon in the UAE soon enough as well. Another marketshare lost to America. In this the BRICS members have an advantage in all this and it is my believe that China will prosper massively here too. 

So enjoy your day and consider what side of business is passing you by. It might be trivial, yet in that ask yourself the other question. What gives you long term gains. You see long term implies (not proves) that the other player will be ready to commit to what YOU bring to THEIR table. It does not revolve around ‘Cash is King’ but in this day and age commitment is everything.

Enjoy

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January 8, 2024 · 01:17

Is it me?

This is a question we must all ask ourselves. In this case, it might be me. You see, I have issues with the CBC article (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-ontario-cities-aoda-1.7054848) where we see ‘Ontario cities need help — and cash — to meet 2025 accessibility deadline, advocates say’. There is (as I personally see it) a lot missing. The first thing I missed was ‘by 2025’, is that January 1st or December 31st? It is a serious question, the article does not bare that out (or was that bear that out)?

The second part is a partial setting. So when was this all agreed upon? Pre or post Covid. It might be well known, but the article should have given us that in stead of trying to find it. You see, pre Covid issues will have delays all off them (at least 90% off them) will face delays because the world has never faced covid before and Canada had a trucker issue as well. 

So when we get to “The city’s latest report on its accessibility progress listed 56 out of 63 of its accessibility goals as complete as of the end of 2022” I might not be up to speed on a few matters (as I am a little distant from Canada, yet in this 56 out of 63 is a decent achievement. The problem is that we see no timeline. So what timeframe were these 56 achievements gotten by? If it is one year it is awesome, when it has taken 10 years not that much greatness. But the article does not bare that out, does it? 

Then we get “In September, the TTC acknowledged 13 out of its 70 subway stations won’t meet the standards outlined in the AODA by 2025” I personally say that those without nuance will always slam, and advocates are really good at slamming, especially when they can ignore nuance. The other way around they are all about nuance, so go figure. There is also the missing part on why the TTC that 13 of its subway stations are missing these outlines standards. A list would have been helpful.

AODA
Now we need to look at a side of the Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act (AODA). I have nothing against it, I am all for such a setting even though it does not aid or help me. I recognise the stage it should protect. The fact is that I am a numbers man (data, not excel). So these 13 subway stations. What is missing and what size of ontarians are hurt because of it? It is a simple enough question. Now, this is not some kind of trivialisation. The numbers I am seeing are “The recent approximations show that there are estimated to be 382,700 deaf and 3,827,000 hard of hearing people in Canada (CAD, n.d., Malkowski, 2021). Out of these numbers, there are approximately 144,990 deaf and 1,449,000 hard of hearing Ontarians (Malkowski, 2021).” These are serious numbers. So how many blind? How many with mobility issues? More important what could be fixed? That 13 stations are missing out is one thing, how much they are missing out of is another and that too is not given to us. You see there are two kinds of people, the one whinges about everything, the other one tries to fix as much as possible and there is also a snag. Too much information is missing, the article does not bare out what could be fixed and how much more time is required? 

This is not an attack, but these are questions that should have been on the front of the mind of the chief editor of the CBC (I think that would be Brodie Fenlon), a mere simple setting we need to address. It is also a case that some subway stations have other constructions nearby which might have made issues more complex and Toronto is filled with construction tape and construction inhibitors all over the city. The final part is seen under a photograph. It is “The city of Toronto, along with other Ontario cities, needs more cash to help reach its accessibility goals faster” a simple setting that doesn’t get the attention it needs to have. So was it a budgeting issue, was it due to other factors? The more I look at the article, the more questions it raises and the first batch of questions goes straight to the CBC. Too much was missing here and the missing parts weren’t for a follow up. They should have placed it in this article.

This is how I see it and here I might be wrong. Too many people claiming to be journalists are blatantly dim on simple top-line graphics and numbers (or tables and charts) giving clarity where there clearly is none. So why was that?

Just a thought for Ontarians as they get through Sunday. Here it is Monday, so they could call me and ask what will happen tomorrow? A simply joke but it has me in stitches every time. In support of that, should I come to Toronto, I will be time travelling ;-).

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January 7, 2024 · 05:24

The biscuit loafers

Yup, lazy cookie dealers, or as you might know them ‘advertisers’. The BBC made me aware (yesterday) the story we see (at https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67882315) where we are given ‘Google Chrome starts blocking data tracking cookies’, now this was nothing new to me. I was ACTUALLY in a Google building in 2019 when that news hit. I took notice of it and that is about all I did. I am no Cookie Monster (this title was already claimed by a resident at Sesame Street). So when I see now “some advertisers say they will suffer as a result.” With the added “The UK’s competition watchdog, the Competition and Markets Authority, can block the plans if it concludes they will harm other businesses.” Now the question becomes. How fucking stupid can people get? This is not out of the blue, this was said 4 years ago. For 4 years the greed driven stupid population let things slide, they relied on abused technology to get their dollars in and the Competition and Markets Authority is allowing for that extended abuse? How about they do something about the abuse of the media? That’s a novel idea.

So now we get to one of the abusers, his name is Phil Duffield at the Trade Desk who gives us “Google’s solution, the Chrome Privacy Sandbox, which only works on a Chrome browser, likely doesn’t benefit anyone other than Google”, actually yes. It benefits the abused, the actual people surfing the internet. The people you abuse every 10 minutes in a game, or abuse in some way that a specific website pushes to other websites because you looked for a birthday present there that month. The actual users of the web browser, it benefits THEM.

But people like Phil Duffield are deaf to those comments. So why isn’t the BBC asking Mr. Duffield to give a complete account of what they did in the last four years? Why did they not ask him how he prepared to deal with that challenging claim of the removal of cookies? They had 4 years to prepare. 

So whilst you consider the setting of these whinging winers, lets take a look at part two, which is totally unrelated. Yet that second part gives you the larger stage of what happens when you have stupid people letting things slide. The stupid greed driven people on Wall Street no less. Take a look at the news that we saw in the last week regarding Wall Street and set this up against Arab News who gives us (at https://gulfnews.com/business/markets/uae-market-cap-soars-as-top-16-companies-hit-dh27-trillion-1.1704521660385) with ‘UAE market cap soars as top 16 companies hit Dh2.7 trillion’. Now, we get that this is a little confusing, so lets give you a hand and relate this. That mentioned multi trillion Dirham amounts to $735 billion (and change). 16 companies made seven hundred and thirty five billion dollars. And it doesn’t end there, these 16 companies was merely responsible for 74%, the total amount comes down to Dh3.65 trillion. This means that the others got an additional 191 billion. That is what not loafing implies. That is the result of being ready for what comes. For me it partially matters as Emaar Properties got Dh68.1 billion. A real estate mogul and in previous blogs you can see how I created IP that could have benefitted Toronto properties and it would most definitely benefit an Emirati player like Emaar Properties. I say that benefit well over a year ago and now I see that a player like that wants to grow and they could benefit by having an additional technology edge as well. 

Can I translate that into some percentage? No, I cannot, this is a technology no one has. And there is an upside to throwing any system upside down, it opens up additional revenue streams and even at 1% that amounts to an additional Dh680 million. To see this I needed merely one day to adjust the IP I had for Toronto. Phil Duffield. And his dodo’s (those who are about to become extinct) had four years. FOUR YEARS. I merely 0.068% of that to create something bringing in an additional stage that would bring more than Dh680 million. How much more? I honestly do not know, but that is more than I ever had in my life and I just checked my wallet, it is missing that $185,159,950 (I rounded it down to avoid having coins in my wallet). 

So when you put 2 and 2 together you will see that the whiners complain to some watchdog even as they had 4 years to prepare. Me? I merely create another piece of IP. The fun part is that when you put it all together, you see that these loafers left billions on the floor. But they still complain for their lack of imagination and lack of insight in a market where they are supposed to be some kind of captain of industry. Just like the captain of the titanic, he merely was a captain for 5 days, after that he was put ashore 3,800 meters straight down. Insulted? Angry? I get that, but be angry with the likes of these loafers not preparing and then cry foul because they are trying to extent their abuse of your privacy. The BBC never gave you that did they. Just like the Arab News didn’t give you the lowdown on those who never were part of that extended Emirati list. They went extinct just as commerce intended them to be. 

Lets pause a moment on that and realise that we are sinking our own ships by giving these loafers and whiners a platform to continue their limited sighted actions. 

Just a thought to have today.

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January 6, 2024 · 07:09

Media is done for

This is what I have been saying all along. Whoring for digital dollars comes at a price. Now, if it was only me no one would care. Yet at this point the stage is altering for the media. The Khaleej Times (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/gaza-crisis-has-become-global-media-war-uae-minister) gives us ‘Gaza crisis has become global media war: UAE minister’ with the byline “Al Gergawi called out the double standards and political agendas hindering true resolution of the Palestinian cause” It is a little less complex than that. You see media is exploiting anything they can to gain the digital dollar. Clicks are everything and as more and more media is aiming for that goal there is no place for political agenda’s other than the local ones protecting the media through their political connections (at home). This is what I regard to be the stakeholders game. As such this article touches me as it covers what I have been saying all along. 

So is it more correct?
That remains a danger. To seek out those who hold your view is what many do, but it is a dangerous path. If their (or your) setting is showing a flaw or is only partially correct, the premise becomes a dangerous one. You must always be able and willing to go back to the drawing board to verify and to double check whatever you believe in. It is essential that you can be critical of your own ideas. Mohammed Abdullah Al Gergawi, UAE Minister of Cabinet Affairs also gives us “This war was not only between the Palestinians and Israel. We also witnessed a global diplomatic war, international polarisation, and a global media war. Today, war is not won on the battlefield but rather in the media field, as he who has the strongest narrative shall become the winner.” In this I would like to add that it is not merely ‘the strongest narrative’, it is who employs the better and better connected stakeholders. They can win you the narrative war. It is not unlike the stakeholders on Capitol Hill. At some point the media figured out that these people could wage their media war FOR them and get kudos points that way. The winner then gets benefits and is more likely to gain the iterative advantage over digital dollars through clicks. The flammable populist voices are merely one side of this. To see this you need to be able to see how digital dollars are gained. How clicks are obtained. At present that is flaming for Gaza, but make no mistake, the moment that this changes to Israel all the narratives will alter accordingly and the media will have no issues with changing the voice. They will hide behind ‘The people are voicing this’. 

Gergawi in continuation gives us ““In 2004, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum gave a speech at this very forum about the need for finding a just solution for the Palestinian case based on international law,” he recalled. “Today, 20 years later, the case is still the most pressing issue in the region and the world.”” As such when we see that the digital click war has been raging on since 2015 the stage alters slightly but does not changes. The stakeholders of then are the same stakeholders of now, their game merely changed. They now have media moguls in their pockets as well. So who was stalling in those first 10 years? 

And this gets the added ““All the states that ask for this solution, I want to ask you, what did you do in the last 10 years to have this solution,” he asked of them. “Almost nothing. Since 2014, there has been no communication to solve the issue. If you were silent for ten years, why would you come back to the two-state solution? Just to prove to the world you are doing something?”” That is the question. I personally believe that there was a second war going on. The one I mentioned, but these same stakeholders were serving more than two masters. You see there is one part that remains unmentioned. I have made mention of this a few times before. I was not outspoken about this as I cannot prove it. There is no purpose served by howling against the storm. It tends to be pointless, it is never heard and it deflates your own energy levels. It is my personal view that the third war brewing under all this is (a speculated view) war served by Strasbourg and Washington DC. They need destabilisation of the middle east. Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran were the three points of pressure that the west required. The moment the Middle East realises that they are better off without the west, that is the moment fear strikes in the hearts of power players in Strasbourg and Washington DC. In all this the actions of inactions regarding Palestine start making sense. There is a clear need. America (and EU) require cheap oil. If they cannot get that, their economies implode. Their commodity needs are fuelling a transient and mobile workforce and without that these two places will have a whole new range of internal problems. 

The problem is how do you prove that? That is less easy to answer. The press is no longer impartial, they are partial to their digital dollars and will take whatever they can at all our expenses. By seeing several sources you get a slightly better view, but it is a filtered view and places like the ICIJ are a joke. They too rely on the media and clicks to be seen, so the story is adjusted accordingly.

And there is no solution, not until you get a real verifiable and reliable source, as such the press and media are no longer one. It has become a populist game for digital clicks.

On a sidenote
This is a little awkward, you see my offensive against Washington DC is taking a turn as this article and a few others made me see a new option. The match between Blogger (me) and DARPA is at present 4-0. I speculatively just saw a new way to find hundreds if not thousands of terrorists. Making the score 5-0 for yours truly and that is a personal goal worth winning for. It might never get me a dime, but to knock (at some point) on haven’s door stating that I made DARPA my bitch and defeated them five over nil is very tempting for the ego, lets be clear about that. In the end that match was my ego having a great time. The problem is that this new approach needs the NSA to wake up. They are the source of interest when it comes to layer one (hardware) issues and if I am correct that setting should be pushed through iOS and Android making them one of the few parties who could solve this. The article opened a door. There is a side I do not completely agree with even if what they say was true. It links to a few other parts that are not mentioned here and that got me thinking. What if we see both sides of that coin? Now, when it is on its back, one side remains invisible, but what happens when that coin falls on a mirror? If will not reveal that side either, but what if a mirror is a reflection of itself? That got me thinking on the sides that do not speak, to focus on the side that can speak and that gave me the idea. If my thought is correct you get more than an image, you get a timeline of total events and with that GEOINT becomes the power core of that setting. A transient force still requires deployment which is part of that solution. My mind remains racing towards that goal (my fifth goal over DARPA). I know it is selfish in nature and even more so when it is not bout money but about the ego. At times we need to feed that monster. The best thing anyone can do is feed it when it serves the best purpose and not to overfeed that monster. I get that, but feed it now and the voice of ego dies down enough, leave it alone and its voice will drown all other voices and that is the lesson the media never learned. They went from Cash is King to ‘Cash is king in the empire of clicks and clickers’ it was nothing more than self defeating short sightedness. 

It’s Saturday for me, Vancouver is still 12 hours away from the weekend. Enjoy yours.

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January 5, 2024 · 13:59

Is it more than buggy?

Very early this morning I noticed something. Apple had made a booboo, now this isn’t a massive booboo and many will hide behind the ‘glitch’ sentiment. But this happened just as I was reading some reports on AI (what they perceive to be AI) and things started to click into place. You see AI (as I have said several times before) does not yet exist. We are short on several parts and yes machine learning and deeper machine learning exist and they are awesome. But there is a extremely dangerous hitch there. It is up to the programmer and programmers are people, they will fail and with that any data model connected will fail, it always will.

So what set this off?
To see this we need to see the image below

It was 01:07 in the morning, just after one o clock. The apple wedge gives us on all 4 timezones that it was today. Vancouver minus 19 hours, making it 06:07 in the morning. Toronto minus 16 hours making it 09:07 in the morning. Amsterdam minus 10 hours making it 15:07 in the afternoon and Riyadh with its minus 8 hours making it 17:07 in the afternoon. And all of them YESTERDAY. Now, we might look at this and think, no biggie and I would agree. But the setting does not en there.

Now we get to the other part. Like hungry all these firms are tying to get you into what they call ‘the AI field’ and their sales people are all pushing that stage as much as they can, because greed is never ending and most sales people live from their commission.

So now we see:

In addition there is Forbes giving us (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/joemckendrick/2024/01/04/not-data-driven-enough-ai-may-change-that/) where we see ‘Not Data-Driven Enough? AI May Change That’ where we are given “Eighty-eight percent of executives said that investments in data and analytics are a top priority, along with 63% for investments in generative AI.” To see my issue we need to take a step back. 

On May 27th 2023 the BBC reported (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65735769) that Peter LoDuca, the lawyer for the plaintiff got his material from a colleague of his at the same law firm. They relied on ChatGPT to get the brief ready. As such we get: ““Six of the submitted cases appear to be bogus judicial decisions with bogus quotes and bogus internal citations,” Judge Castel wrote in an order demanding the man’s legal team explain itself.” Now consider the first part. An affidavit is prepared by the current levels of machine learning and they get the date wrong (see apple example above). An optional mass murderer now gets off on a technicality because the levels of scrutiny are lacking. The last part of the case in court gives us “After “double checking”, ChatGPT responds again that the case is real and can be found on legal reference databases such as LexisNexis and Westlaw.” A court case for naught and why? Because technology isn’t ready yet, it is that simple. 

The problem is a little bot more complex. You see forecasting exists and it is decently matured, but it is used in the same breath as AI, which does not yet exist. There are (as I personally see it) no checks and balances. Scrutiny on the programmer seemingly goes away when AI is mentioned and that is perhaps the largest flaw of all. 

There is a start, but we are in its infancy. IBM created the quantum computer. It is still early days, but it exists. Lets just say that in quantum computers they created the IBM XT computer of Quantum, with its version of an intel 8088 processor. And compared to 1981 it was a huge step forward. What currently is still missing due to infancy are the shallow circuits, they are nowhere near ready yet. The other part missing is the Ypsilon particle now ready for IT. The concept comes from a Dutch Physicist (I forgot the name, but I mentioned it in previous blogs). I wrote about it on August 8th 2022. In a story called ‘Altering Image’ You see that will change the field and it makes AI possible. In the setting the Dutch physicist sets the start differently. The new particle will allow for No, Yes, Both and None. It is the ‘both’ setting of the particle that changes things. It will allow for gradual assumptions and gradual stage settings. Now we will have a new field, one that (together with quantum computing) allows for an AI to grow on its data, not hindered (or at least a lot less hindered) by programmers and their programming. When these elements are there and completed to its first stage an AI becomes a possibility. Not the one that sales people say it is, but what the forefather of AI (Alan Turing) said it would be and then we will be there. IBM has the home field advantage, but until that happens it will be anyones guess who gets there first.

So enjoy your day and when you are personally hurt by an AI, don’t forget there is a programmer and its firm you could optionally sue for that part. Just a thought. 

Enjoy THIS day.

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January 4, 2024 · 18:57

Wanna go fat?

That is the weird but very apt question. Of course I could ask Laura Vandervoort implying if she wants me (my delusional side in action). Yet this is not about women, this is about gaming. It is 2024 and internet congestion is starting to become a much bigger issue. As such, if Amazon with its Luna wants to stand out and equal if not surpass Tencent with its handheld, it needs to reformulate some settings. I truly believe that Gaming as a Service (GaaS) has the future, but the brains behind this are too much about the monthly fee and when congestion hits that monthly fee becomes a problem. Tencent with its handheld has a solution, now Amazon needs to find a roadmap to set itself apart. They cannot rely on player like Ubisoft to figure things out, it will be too late for them.

Now consider an upgraded and remastered version of some of the Commodore 64 greats. Fort Apocalypse, Wizard, Jumpman, Wizard of Wor and so on. You might find that amusing, but you only have to face one wall of congestion and it suddenly doesn’t feel that weird anymore. Now each of these games was less than 354Kb in total. Now with upgraded graphics (and much better sounds) it will easily fit a 2Mb marker. Consider the controller now with an SD card slot and a 64GB card is less than $15. Now consider that the controller is the fat client. It will use the servers, but in some cases it can download a partial frame and a whole host of games can be played from the controller. Not Ubisoft games and not many ‘new’ high tech games (or whatever they would call them) but others could be downloaded and other games could be downloaded whilst you play. It is a larger station to consider. In the age of congestion, the one that allows you to play is the winner and Amazon needs a real win. Microsoft is spinning the fact that they are losing. They made arrangements with Ubisoft. So what happens when Microsoft desperately wants more? Amazon better get ready because if they are not, it all goes to Tencent and they are at present in a stage where they could get millions of gamers, all because some were asleep (OK, Google walked away from this). 

The larger setting that we see (at https://www.androidauthority.com/amazon-luna-1170676/) is only part of it. They are set on relying on monthly prices and that is good. The moment that players and families will have to consider $12 for Netflix or $10 for Amazon Prime, Amazon will lose members. The controller is either $70, or $83. So what happens when people get the one time additional $10 for the fat client version, they need to buy their own SD card, but it comes with a free setting of these ‘download’ games and as that list improves the people will select the Amazon equation. You can all go into denial that this will never happen, but a setting where bills are strangling you, that $10 can given you dozens of games and a gaming setting that families can afford. Yes, when they cannot afford one, they cannot afford the other either. But there will be a large group of people who can only afford one. And that will escalate. Now take congestion in the mix and people are paying for something that cannot be delivered for whatever excuse the telco gives us and in Australia Optus has had its share of excuses, so much so that there is a senate hearing on Optus. And it is the first one at present. I reckon that soon enough others will have their congestion and outage issues, this might be the year it comes to blows all because too many were sitting on their hands and it is not merely Australia. EU and US will have their own issues soon enough. In addition to that Germany and France have massive rural area’s where the minimum bandwidth is seemingly an issue. That issue is seemingly and there is no real open data. Those who have the issue are (as I personally suspect) hiding this. As such a fat client solution could decrease bandwidth pressures and allow people to game there, at least those lacking a console or PC. 

As I personally see it, going fat is not the best way, but it is an option into the future, so how about it Laura ;-)?

Now consider the Amazon solution with dozens of awesome remastered games added to the mixture? As I see it it is better than what is now, the Microsoft spin only holds water for so long and whilst too many are following that Microsoft cult, Tencent with its handheld is about to gain real gamers globally and that was what I always predicted. They question becomes which of the two is gaining the additional 50,000,000 gamers the quickest in phase one? When that part becomes reality Microsoft will have lost another battle, all set to meaningless banter like ‘We have the most powerful console in the world’ which is not a lie, but Nintendo with its weakest console surpassed them with great ease and now Tencent is about to become the next favourite taste of gamers. Amazon has options but it is not clear for how long. They are establishing themselves, yet outside issues like congestion will halt them for some time and this is the kind of game that standing still get you to lose the race. 

Enjoy this Thursday, the first weekend of the year is only a day away.

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January 3, 2024 · 21:40

A strange evolving setting

I saw the article last night (really really early this morning) and it gave me something to think about. The article (at https://www.deccanherald.com/business/economy/with-russian-oil-imports-falling-india-turns-to-saudi-arabia-2832708) comes from Deccan Herald. I do not know them, but it is an Indian paper. The west doesn’t seem to have this. So lets look at what is weird. 

It starts with “at least five cargoes of the sweet Sokol variant heading to other locations, data from vessel tracking agencies showed.” Then there is “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” so whilst we see that imports of Saudi oil, rose by about 4 per cent, Russian oil declined by 22%, the numbers do not add up. I personally believe that Russia is in more trouble then they are letting on. I personally believe that a chunk of that oil is going to Iran to pay for drones. Iran might have oil, but it is embargoed, Russian oil is not and they can make transfer sales and fill their coffers up that way. Now, all this needs to be taken lightly, because there is only one source and I am speculating of that. Consider the deal Russian suppliers had with India. Also consider that by late July 2023, Iran had sent at least 400 Shahed and Mohajer series drones to Russia. That is close to $20 million, per $60 a barrel that is a whole lot of oil and the fact that India is getting less implies (implies is not a fact) that Russia has more than one issue at present. The Shahed drones are running out, more are needed and Russia (through several sources) are lacking in capabilities to get their own drones to the front. This all adds up that Russia has increasing issues to maintain their battlefronts, to maintain their Russian oil supplies and to maintain their manufacturing facilities. Napoleon lost with a lot less problems.

So whilst Saudi Arabia is seeing more revenue from their oil stocks, the question is how long that happens. It is not on Saudi Arabia, but once it is shown that Russia is lacking in a few ways the larger station comes that Russia will be fighting internal and external wars. 

So how right am I?
That remains the larger question. If any of the presented facts through sources is wrong, the entire domino wall comes tumbling down. None of this could be verified and the fact that only the Deccan Herald had this is also a point for debate. There are differences between the data of Kpler and Vortexa and that is fine. But the stage where Russia is delivering 22% less whilst there are implied reasons and none of this backed up by facts, together with the one mention of China with “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” makes me think that there is more going on and somehow someone paid for all those drones, Iran doesn’t give these toys away. 

So there is a stage where merely some of it could be right, but which part? 

In addition to Yesterday
Yesterday I talked about tourism. What I failed to mention is that there was data on the UAE. Reuters gave it 4 days ago (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uaes-abu-dhabi-sees-non-oil-gdp-growth-77-q3-2023-statement-2023-12-29/), I missed it.  There we see ‘UAE’s Abu Dhabi sees non-oil GDP growth of 7.7% in Q3 2023 -statement’. This is huge and it is non-oil growth. Now, this is not merely tourism, this is on more sides, but tourism will be taking a chunk of this. Poland with 1.4% growth is the biggest in the EU last year. This implies that the United Arab Emirates outperformed all EU nations by well over 500%. That is massive. Now, comparing GDP’s is unbalanced and incorrect, I get that. However, these settings imply that tourism in the US and EU are taking a serious dive in 2024. We can debate that this is merely a hiccup, or that it is nothing, a mere blip on the radar. But in light of their faltering GDP and places like Greece, Spain, Italy, London, Paris, New York and Florida need tourism these blips could have severe impacts in these places. If continued there is every chance that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will get access to $25-$30 billion and other places do not. Do you still think it is a little hiccup? Even when we see “Florida visitors contributed $101.9 billion to Florida’s economy and supported over 1.7 million Florida jobs (2021)” now consider that to be 5% less. How many jobs will go south? The European nations cannot even consider losing that much, it would be like the impact of Greek tourism (2002-2008) but now over three nations. That impact will be seen. 

So how accurate is this?
It is not. The reported numbers from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are, but how it affects others is not directly seen and can only be speculated on. What is clear that money spend there will not be spend anywhere else and that implies well over 25 billion lost to other places. How much each is impacted remains a guess. 

So enjoy the day and consider that special deals this summer will be all over Europe and America, so you might get a decently prized vacation this year.

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January 2, 2024 · 23:28

Change starts now

Yup, that is the setting. We can ignore it. We can deny it and we can oppose it. All choices that any of us can make. Are they correct moves? You tell me. I am not saying what you need to believe, I cannot say what you have to trust. But change has started. It basically started lat year, but now the changes start adding up. To see this we need to see the article in the Saudi Gazette (at https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/639241). There we are given ‘Spending of visitors to Saudi Arabia soars 72% to SR100 billion in first 9 months of 2023’. Now we can wonder how much it is, but it amounts to $26,000,000,000 dollars more spend in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Some will say ‘so what?’ And I get that, I have nothing to gain there either. But the fact is that the bulk of all tourists can only spend their money once. This implies that the 26 billion spend there is not getting spend anywhere else and that will matter to a whole range of people. Now, for the most I reckon these are Muslim tourists and they decided not to spend it in Amsterdam, London, Paris or some place in America. The part of the 72% more also matters. It means that as a tourist destination Saudi Arabia is starting to appeal to a whole lot of people. It means that plenty of other economies will not be getting them. As such, when a place like Australia gets only 1 billion less, it will be felt on most corners of any street. Not much mind you. However, there will be an impact. So, what do you think the impact is in London, or even America. America has had bad news after bad news and now there is one indicator that tourism has been impacted in America. It is only one indicator. I reckon that if places like Dubai also sees a larger growth. Places like Tokyo will most likely lose out. 

The fact that Saudi Arabia has been trying to appeal to a larger audience for tourism goes way beyond Islamic tourists. The moment their winter resort and their other places start opening up in the next 4 years, European and American tourist destinations will need to cater in a whole new way and they are for the most broke. They catered to self for so long that there are too little reserves left. The fact that more and more people are considering the UAE as a theme park destination over Disney-world is only now beginning to sink in. Ron DeSantis really messed that up. We get news messages like “Yes, fewer people are visiting Disney World, but the company has shown that it can raise profits by doing a better job serving fewer guests.” It is my speculations that either revenue goes down, or they will cater to a ‘wealthier’ audience, which implies it is a slippery scale to bad times for them too. Then Florida lose a 1 billion investment option by Disney (thanks to their own governor) and at that point an image starts to shape. Be careful what you see, because one swallow does not mean summer has started. Yet the larger stage that Saudi Arabia is creating will imply that their $26 billion windfall is merely the start of more. It does not guarantee success, it merely means that failure is almost no longer a consideration for Saudi Arabia. These things are not the same. But the thing that matters to me is that if that amount was spend there, it was not spend anywhere else and that is the stick that western tourism needs to deal with. There is every chance that it is already to late. There are a few indicators that the Muslim population (which is closing in on 2 billion people) are selecting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as their destination. That is the takeaway that I am seeing from a few articles, not just the one I am referring to now. 

There were more indicators and I wrote about them last year, but to see the result of 72% more in the last year is a definite number that has a much larger impact on global tourism. We will hear all versions of wisdom on how ‘experts’ say that there are solutions. I wonder where they are. You see the west and America specifically haunted the Islamic population and that population is looking for other places to visit. Now this will not imply all Muslims, but consider that 400 million go on vacation in 2024. The chances that they select Saudi Arabia and/or United Arab Emirates over all other destinations is not a large call to make. These players have been catering and perfecting their offers for a few years now and the hostilities they all faced everywhere else has them reeling for a solution and these two players have offers in spades. So as we see 2024, we need to keep an eye on what revenue goes where because the impact is close to global. 

Change is starting to become visible now, but it started last year and as these two deliver more, more and more muslims will consider another place to visit. Preferably in a place where they get a decent treatment as Muslims. It was never a hard sell, it was pretty obvious to begin with.

Enjoy today.

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January 2, 2024 · 01:33

Redefining limits

Yup, we all do that. Perhaps me more than others. This time I am not slapping Microsoft (too much fun), but it is time to have a small go at Amazon. They were asleep at the wheel as well and they still have their Amazon Luna.

This is the image of a board game called Hero Quest. The game (at present) is not important. What is, is the fact that someone turned it into a video game. Now I am not judging that game (never played it). But there is a whole range of games that are ignored. The most important part is that people did not go into this with their imagination turned on. So let’s take another look at another game. 

Behold the Harry Potter edition of Clue. A game that could be played online as well. But consider another stage. What if the stage of the board changes depending on the character you play? The rooms and layout remain the same, but how you see these corridors and rooms do not. In Hero Quest we see a ‘bland’ board because at that time it was what there was. Now consider these corridors having shades and shadows. It gives a rogue less visibility, implying that in a dark part of a corridor he is unlikely to be seen and can attack once with benefits. In clue the characters have different secret passages, or at least not all of them. In addition (playing by the original clue rules) Hermione has additional question skills. Harry has movement skills (broom and such). It doesn’t change the game, it merely alters it and it becomes a whole lot more interesting to play that game with a specific character. 

We can go on all night and do this to a while range of games. My issue is that board games aren’t new. They are also not new in video games. So why didn’t anyone take this to a whole new level (looking at you Amazon)? 

Limits is where you see them and redefining them is seen when you destroy these limits. Players like Amazon are so used to let others (with limitations) set the premise and they are ignoring what could have been done. 

There were so many board games. There are the MB games (Milton Bradley Company) and their games were ‘top’ entertainment through the 70’s-90’s, so why were they forgotten? I get that they were not on the mind of CBM-64 programmers. But now with most limits gone much more could have been achieved and in streaming it will be important to set part of the stage where the whole family could compete and that is where streaming could push the new score of entertainment. If it is single player, against NPC’s or others online, the multi-view comes back into the equation. 

So do the math. How many games for Amazon Luna were released in 2023? How many were played? Now consider these board games and let people play them by themselves (against an NPC) or online agains a friend of fellow player, what clusters of eager players would Amazon have unlocked? 

That list could go on for a while and it could also include a few other options, but I think the message is clear. The console makers (all apart from Sony and Nintendo) are leaving it up to others to fix things. I think Amazon needs to take a hard look at where they are and where they think they are going. It is important because Tencent has a handheld for streaming and they are about to push their borders all over the globe. Microsoft can claim all it wants, but the new Elder Scrolls is (according to sources) at least 5 years away. Nintendo needed less then 2 years to surpass them and Tencent is likely able to achieve the same. It is now up to Amazon to be regarded as a serious gaming solution of become 4th in that race soon there after. They might land ahead of Microsoft, but in gaming that is not much of an achievement.

Just my few cents on the matter in this new year.

Enjoy!

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January 1, 2024 · 13:11

An upbeat start

I think it is important to start the year in an upbeat way. This might not always be possible, but we can try. In this All Israel News gave us something that I did not see anywhere else. The story (at https://allisrael.com/the-day-after-the-united-arab-emirates-deepens-its-involvement-in-gaza) gives us ‘‘The Day After:’ The United Arab Emirates deepens its involvement in Gaza’ where we see both “The UAE is working vigorously to establish a foothold in the Gaza Strip and is leading the humanitarian effort” and “the UAE enters Gaza with greater economic power compared to other nations. It started with a field hospital they set up in southern Gaza in Rafah.” As well as “the UAE becomes the only country other than Israel that supplies water to Gaza”. This is god news. There is more than one water source now. This is merely the start, but a financial powerhouse like the UAE setting the stepping stones for Palestinians in Gaza is a good start. All these cult idiots shouting Free Palestine is entertaining to the media and their digital dollar needs. But who reported on all that Gaza was free and self governing since 2005? Hamas was never the solution, Hamas is now and will remain the problem for the Palestinians and when Hamas makes the wrong move, which is merely a matter of time Hamas will be done for and people start realising that Hamas has been the one true destabilising factor in Gaza for close to 20 years. 

Yet there is a start now, the UAE has started water supplies. And I am thinking, what if there was a mobile bakery near there? Consider a truck, but a truck that has one function, to bake bread 24:7. We see these bread factories all over the west. So what happens when we put a compact version on a truck. What if we add 40 pizza ovens to a 40 foot container? We have the water, we merely need a truck of flour (or dough) and pizza bread is created as well 24:7? There are well over 1 million Palestinians about to enter the stage of famine. Keeping manufacturing in Egypt and sending a van with bread and water every hour 24 times a day will not solve anything. But it could lessen some of the strains. So how many considered that take on the events? And I am stating that it is merely one container. With 5 of them you can have 200 ovens ready to roll. You still need a good supply of wood, but that can be brought in by trucks. One could fuel all 200 ovens, the dough and the bread it creates will feed thousands. It is just a thought and perhaps others have this in motion. But to be fair, I see little of it and they are complaining on the lack of containers getting through. So who started to smuggle weapons and explosives through aid containers? Yes, Hamas did. We need a different solution and the oven and bakery containers are one. It will not be all the time, but a mobile solution like that is needed all over the world. So who has set up that kind of a solution? The media isn’t all over this, so either it doesn’t give them digital dollars, their stakeholders do not want that news out, or it just doesn’t exist. You pick the most likely candidate, but on this day I decided to remain upbeat and create an optional solution. 

What did you do? Be hung over? Be overly happy with good cheers given and given to you? 

I just see it as another day, I am simple that way.

Happy 2024.

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