Tag Archives: China

September 27, 2023 · 23:54

As the belt tightens

We have seen the expression, but did we consider the impact against the long game? Today two articles passed me by. The first one comes from Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2380901/saudi-arabia) where we see ‘Saudi Arabia granted China’s Approved Destination Status’ with the added “Saudi Arabia was officially granted Approved Destination Status by China on Tuesday, allowing Chinese citizens to travel to the Kingdom on group tours, the Saudi Press Agency reported.” You might think ‘So what?’ and that is fine. Yet consider that Chinese tourists “made 155 million outbound trips, and spent a cumulative $245 billion on outbound tourism”, now this is on their global trips. Yet 5 years ago Saudi Arabia was not even a blip on the tourism radar. So, now we see the setting where it might start at a mere 10%, but this could grow a lot further. Consider that tourism suffers a $24,500,000,000 reduced income. That puts several players in hot water. Some are still recuperating from the Covid issue. Some will drown. Then we get the impact of lessened tourism all over Europe. I reckon that London will have no trouble, as does Paris. Yet several locations will feel that impact, as will some places in the US and in light of the BRICS setting, certain group travel organisations in China will undoubtedly promote Saudi Arabia as the destination to go to in 2024 and 2025. I reckon (pure speculation) that the rest of the world will lose at least 20% in the first two years and if you read up on some of the media, that is not good news. The second article comes from design boom (at https://www.designboom.com/architecture/marriott-first-w-hotel-saudi-arabia-neom-trojena-09-26-2023/). There we see ‘Marriott’s first W hotel in Saudi Arabia to debut within NEOM trojena’s futuristic ski resort’ that implies that larger players see this as the new tourist place and they want in. So consider that this happens 5 years in advance. The setting gives us the idea that this will not be a small hotel, or a simple cheap one. Saudi Arabia is setting its goals on being the hub for a lot of places and reasons and now tourism is added to their arsenal. You still think I was wrong all those years? As things go, when this gets off the ground, we see a new setting where Saudi Arabia is a possible contender for the Winter Olympics in 2040, I do not think they will have won over enough hearts for 2036, but 2040 is a decent time when the winter olympics could come to Saudi Arabia. The one place where the Winter Olympics would never have gotten to is now the place where it might end. As such how much more revenue is lost by all others? The long play is seemingly panning out perfectly for Saudi Arabia. 

Could I be wrong?
Of course I could, but consider the players vying to get in there, consider the timeline that Saudi Arabia so far has maintained and consider the losses that the US and the EU have had in the last two years alone and the losses they stand to get slapped with over the next three years. When you add it all up it implies that the EU and US will have to tighten the belt by a lot merely to get by and that is before you realise that the US will have budget problems nearly every year for the next 5 years, from that point it will continue on a non-stop trip from bad to worse year after year. We have been given the following quote for some time now “The kingdom’s Vision 2030 goals include enhancing the Saudi private sector to create a vibrant society, establishing a thriving economy via diversification, and investing in ways to position Saudi Arabia for global trade and competition.” And that is exactly what is happening in many fields including tourism. Before you listen to the other people making claims that it is a small hiccup at best. Consider your OWN position. How many holidays have you had? How many trips could you afford? For a lot of us once a year is as good as it gets and that is the same for China, as such a large group will sign up for a Saudi Trip, of that I have no doubt and in that stage as billions go towards Saudi Arabia, they will not go to either Europe or America. I reckon that the moment Saudi Arabia starts its own version of Las Vegas the tourism pain will set in in America and the revenue streams go down even furthers. And that is before you consider that there is every chance that  China will offer a group setting for the Saudi options and add 1-2 days in Dubai as well. I reckon that over the next 3 years that belt will tighten more and more and it will end plenty of businesses all over the US and Europe. I reckon that Australia will feel that pinch too. We are given “Chinese tourists spent $12.4 billion while in Australia. 677,000 visitors came to Australia for holiday purposes.” It might be a mere 10%, but that already means that Australia will miss out on well over a billion in revenue. So how many in places like Sydney will feel the pinch then? Sydney might be decently safe, but a speculated loss of 10% (if it is that small) will impact Australian lives all over the place.

Enjoy the day and consider where you were going next year for the holidays. 

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September 26, 2023 · 05:37

The confused mindset

We all have that at times and I am no different. I have had a few ideas and they were merely that, ideas. An idea for Kruger Products to increase their offset by 10% (or more), which sounds ludicrous, I know and it is not because Kleenex bailed out of Canada. It was one thought that painted over another and then a third thought came into play and as such the idea was born. I still think it could work, but not sure how to push it through. Lets be clear, I do not need to push it through, I am on the other side of the planet. Then the idea came for a mobile case addition. Not merely a new mobile case, there are 13 in a dozen, but an addition to every case, all in light of stupid people who lose their mobile phones on planes, in rollercoasters and that list goes on a bit. So, when you consider that the new iPhone 15 PRO MAX is well over $2K, the idea has merit. How long until you no longer have it insured. How long until the insurance companies use these videos to show you do not care for your product like a good father (yes, that is an expression used for over 30 years) and as such nullify your insurance and you will not get back the insurance premium already paid. All these thoughts invaded my mindset. All whilst other things pre-occupy it.

You see, the looming US shutdown and the FTX case involving Bankman-Fried (aka Bankman-Fired) is merely showing me how the media is set to fear mongering, involving as many as they can for the digital dollar and that list goes on. Yet one source, the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46927916) gives us beside ‘What happens in a US government shutdown?’, whatever is about to come. Yet I think that this is fear mongering and a last minute solution will be found, but certain people on the republican side will want their pound of meat as well as their 15 minute of camera time. Yet the chance of this going wrong will increase with every iteration of this circus. I mentioned it before. It will not be long until it actually happens. To keep the fear alive and there is supporting evidence (straight from the BBC). You see, we are given “Congress is also not affected – its members are exempt and, in any case, its funding bill has already been approved. The US Department of Justice is among those affected – with many lawyers and judges not working during a shutdown. Others are working without pay.” With the added ““Essential services” – mostly related to public safety – continue to operate, with workers being required to show up without pay.” So, isn’t that called slave labour? And the republicans are steering for this? I am not entirely unsympathetic as the US debt keeps on growing, but this is a dangerous step. The second danger is “A right-wing faction in the House is demanding deep cuts and wants to stop further funding of the war in Ukraine” A republican side that is so driven with greed that they will support Russia in the process, that must be the most un-American part I ever beheld. Yet my mind also thinks that if the world goes this without the US, then the world must ALSO make the US pay. As such it needs to remove import of American products, it needs to shun American services and there are options. It fuels certain EU options (EVROC anyone?) And that is merely one of many. The media is so driven not to look into the US corporations that are STILL doing business in Russia and that list also goes on. There needs to be a price for everything and America will have to pay its pound of beef as well. Greed comes with a price and that price is always higher than one thinks. 

To illustrate one small part, the last one in 2019 “The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that it reduced economic output by about $11bn, including $3bn that it never regained.” Over 36 days that much, never regained. That is the loss people face in a time when they cannot afford anything. So how much longer until the EU nations seek an audience with President Xi? Do not think that this cannot happen, BRICS has grown massively and now that Saudi Arabia is part of that, the EU and the US will face tougher times. The candyman is gone, he has vacated the building and is now part of the Asian collective and that sits well with China, the moment several European nations join that part, America is truly done for. No fear mongering, merely a simple fact that the media is not reporting on, because its stakeholders will not allow that and that is the linked danger. You think the last $3,000,000,000 is much? China now has lucrative construction contracts and lucrative service contracts that span the 5 year horizon (as I personally see it) to well beyond $75 billion, funds that the US can no longer appeal to and that list grows shorter every year. Saudi Arabia and the UAE represent a massive amount of revenue and it is all going towards China and BRICS members. So the idea that the EU members will want to appeal to President Xi is growing larger by the day and that is all linked to the game that Republicans are playing with. A compact combination of greed, stupidity and ego. Winning big in Vegas has better chances than the game we see now and the media is keeping you all in the dark.

The media stakeholders are that powerful now and it is all for the larger good, but the good for who? A few hours ago I saw ‘BRICS Countries Dump $123 Billion in U.S. Treasuries in 2023’ (source: Watcher Guru). First of all this is unverified news and I only saw one source, but if this is REAL news and the other media is shunning this fact, we see two parts. The first is that the media is losing credibility fast, the second is that the US is facing more and more hardship. That being said, I have no idea how reliable Watcher Guru is, so be careful what you take for gospel without decent verification. I am not accepting the news, but the setting would be what any tactical party (especially BRICS) would do to make things hard for America and BRICS includes Russia AND China, so make from this what you want, yet that too relates to the Republicans wanting to side with Russia AGAINST Ukraine, as such that step makes less and less sense with every hour I see news articles pass by. Perhaps we should call them the Republittlecans? 

No matter how you slice these events, the Anti-China acts buy the US is driving the EU members into the arms of China, an outcome they apparently did not see coming. If they did these steps seem extraordinary stupid to me. Yet my mind is merely turning trying to create more ideas as I go along with whatever silly events is happening around the corner.

The mindset can get confused, also the mindset of any focussed person. Confusion sets in when the data that it registers (reads) becomes conflicting on several levels and as I personally see it the involved stakeholders are creating more confusion in the process of hiding news others do not want you to see. You might think the Watcher Guru is such news and I would doubt it too as it is merely one source, but this is nowhere near the first time and other news has been hidden or trivialised for well over a decade now and the people are starting to catch on all over the world they are catching on that the media has lost credibility all over the place.

Enjoy the day, the week is really on route now.

 

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September 21, 2023 · 13:13

Look back in yearning

This happens and weirdly enough it hit me a few hours ago. You see a few days ago I started to replay Hogwarts Legacy again (third time). I started as Ravenclaw (I like blue), then Hufflepuff and now Slytherin. You see, Gryffindor is the least interesting house as Harry-the-Snape-sycophant-Potter has been showing us that house for 8 movies, so that place is last. And my view remains, yet there is some doubling up as you replay the game, but the game is a true work of love the houses and their common rooms show that part. There is not one better house, but there is a house for every HP fan and it is a great game. I truly hope that DLC’s or an additional game is not far away (like somewhere in 2024). I do not car about the haters and their views of JK Rowling. I never heard what she said, I do not care what her believes are. We all have believes and some opposes ours directly. That will always happen and dumping a perfectly good piece of IP (one she did not create) is just insane. 

Yet that point also woke up part of me that I missed. You see, I am not much of a racing fan. I enjoy a race, I enjoy some realism and I have enjoyed an F1 game in the past, but it is all ‘too realistic’ and I am not racer. I loved Ridge racer on my PSP, yet one title always stood out. 

It was Need for Speed Underground by Electronic Arts I loved even more. I loved it because it was more like arcade (Outrun example) racing games. Need for speed had a few additional sides that gave it the flair I enjoyed and when we look at the games nowadays, it is all about ‘realism’. Don’t get me wrong, Grand Turismo and Forza are amazing games and they have their own following. But these two lack an arcade setting (for lack of a better term). As such we forgot about Need for Speed and that is a shame. I didn’t like what they produced afterwards, it was too much about short term adrenaline rushes. But that game took my feelings back to 1982, Pole Position on the Commodore 64 which got an 85% score. 

In addition there was 1990 when we were given Lotus Esprit Turbo Challenge by Gremlin graphics (85% rating). Yes, graphically there are much better graphics now, but these two games brought fun. They brought fun to racing and the games we see today are drained too much of fun and all about the implied rush and short term adrenaline events. Forza, Gran Turismo and  the Crew should take a hard look at themselves and not about outspoken claims (whilst ignoring tens of thousands of others). 

I believe that these developers are wasting a marketshare and this is about to become a time when marketshare should not ever be wasted. Yes, I see all the Twitter feeds on games that were released 25-35 years ago. Almost like influencers trying to get create waves at the behest of marketing departments. I do get that and I (for the most) do not care, but actual gems are left out there to rot in the sun. We are now in a stage where a lot of us have forgotten a game like Boulder Dash, a game that brought addiction to millions. The 1984 game got an 80% rating with “A very special Game with ugly Graphic. Boulder Dash is one of THE classics of the C64.” The interesting part is that graphics were set to 40%, implying that today it could become a 90% game. It was already a 90% game on playability. As such the streamers of today could have an interesting game that takes little bandwidth. You see, when streamers become of age and internet congestion becomes the larger problem (expect that in 2026) these games and games like this will drive gaming forward. It is about the fun and that is the part that too many developers are in denial of. I reckon Ubisoft has the biggest problem with that aspect of fun. In case of Ubisoft, I still believe the original stage I saw. ‘When you create a game to appease everyone, you end up with a game that pleases no one’. It was true in 2014 and it is even more true in 2024. As such these thoughts blended together missing out on arcade style racing. I wonder if these developers are seeing that part of the equation, because as I see it now we have the Amazon Luna developers and they can connect to the Tencent technologies handheld with their software opposing Chinese developers who are on the ball and could soon create a lot more ‘remastered’ IP and they could get away with it. You see players like Electronic Arts let the CBM64 and CBM Amiga IP expire and now the stage evolves for these new indie developers. If they can create a game that is distinct enough, they could create new IP and at that point all the wannabe Microsoft developers are set out in the cold (and not just them). As I see it, as I see what Tencent Technologies is up to, it will soon be another field where the US is fishing behind the net and when these developers are relying on their advertisement incomes, they are merely one step from becoming redundant and I reckon that Apple and Google will be on the same boat. Not merely because of what they proclaim, but it is what HarmonyOS (4.0.0.113 by Huawei) is setting the stage for and the moment that Tencent Technologies opens the door to that option it will not merely gain access to one market, it will gain access to three markets and when the others forget about the fun those others will get their goose cooked. If you think I am kidding, consider the advertisement (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvkMp0JuyPQ) when yo think this through and not hide behind the ‘sexy’ label, we see that Nintendo was right all along and Nintendo figured this out 16 years ago. Preppy and fun was the story and they delivered. In the meantime Microsoft lost a truckload of market share and Nintendo gained on Sony by miles. I like the ad as it is set against the PS3 and I had both (and loved both systems). Now we see that nearly all systems have forgotten about the fun part and a new market for indie developers opens up. With the streaming systems they can create for more than one in one go and now the others will have created a new competitor, merely because they adhered to marketing and business intelligence. The problems is that they are all opposed by a knife with three sides. That knife is awareness, perception and reality, the problem they face is that they are adhering to the wrong voices and forgot about the true fun side of a game (not everyone mind you), so all those developers forgot about one marketshare that is growing fast and is about to become a lot bigger and it is yet another reason why one brand is losing more and more marketshare. All because some of them disregarded the impact of fun and now Google and Apple are about to make that part even worse. So as the older gamers look back in yearning, the new gamers see what they are missing out on and they are about to wise up. At that point who will be in the top three? Sony will be, Nintendo will be and place three? That remains to be seen, but we now have another market where Microsoft ends up in 5th place, which is way behind the pole position they once coveted, once a long time ago. 

Enjoy the day.

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September 8, 2023 · 09:28

Has the world gone mad?

Yup, this was my very first thought, it was not a nice thought (I’ll admit to that) and it was given to me by Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/6/us-eu-uk-officials-visit-uae-to-discuss-russia-sanctions-cnn-report) where we are given ‘Western officials visit UAE in efforts to halt exports to Russia: Report’ the byline of “The Wall Street Journal initially reported plans to jointly press the UAE to halt shipments of goods to Russia” does not help much. In all honesty, who the fuck do they think they are? You see, we were only given a week ago ‘Beer giant Heineken sells its business in Russia for one euro’ (at https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/beer-giant-heineken-sells-its-business-in-russia-for-one-euro/news-story/1f6e65254890bfbd6d1757d70deb351c). In part I think that it is nice that it happens after well over a year when things should have stopped, but let things flow (especially beer). You see, the largest problem is that places like Align Technology (USA), Cloudflare (USA), BT Technologies (UK), Fenzi group (Italy) and a whole range more are according to sources still operating in Russia. Yale is giving us a list (at https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain) where we find ‘Over 1,000 Companies Have Curtailed Operations in Russia—But Some Remain’ after 560 days of war. I admit that the list is from 2022, yet there Heineken wasn’t even on the list. So I would kindly like to request that the representatives from the United States, British and European Union who are visiting the United Arab Emirates amid concerns regarding shipments of goods, including computer chips, to Russia that could help Moscow in its war on Ukraine would kindly ‘Shut the fuck up’ and clean their houses first. This group of snivelling little clowns do not get to tell anyone anything until their citizens and corporations seized all operations. I think that same message could be given to anyone visiting any Middle Eastern nation with a similar request. I do not disagree with the sentiment, but to do that whilst your places are still operating in Russia is just too hypocritical for any consideration. And even after that, there is still China to consider, they will never consider that request beyond certain levels and as such, why is this request coming to the UAE? Are the American parties making money of puppets in the UAE to keep their hands clean? I cannot say that this is happening, but there are plenty of ways for zero tax nations to make a bundle being the front person of a large deliverer. Oh, and by the way in 2021 on September 20th, Jesse Benton and Doug Wead pleaded not guilty in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia to charges of making a straw donation to the Trump campaign in 2016 on behalf of a Russian national. So is that case going? I am just asking, because On February 17, 2023, Jesse Benton was sentenced to 18 months in prison, the other one died in time to avoid conviction. With the US in shambles and the US setting up all kinds of foundations of avoidance by US Republicans into stopping assistance to the Ukraine, I think that envoy should take a breather and stop being silly. Some of that ‘anti-assistance is less than a month old’, as such I wonder who on earth would be this stupid. So when we are given “The senior Western officials arrived in the Gulf nation this week to discuss sanctions on Russia, as concerns mounted that Moscow was bypassing them through various means, a US embassy spokesperson told CNN on Wednesday.” All whilst the US, UK and EU are still very much invested in Russia is just too crazy for words. 

I am not stating that you should believe me, I added the sources that were available to me and that list, I made mention of it earlier this year (might have been in 2022), so when I saw this article in Al Jazeera I wondered why the other media are shunning investigating businesses with vested interests in Russia, there are apparently well over 1000. So why is the UAE such an issue? I honestly do not know, but the idea that there are western politicians with a ‘look there’ all whilst they are filling their pockets (the Trump Case) is just too silly for words and these representatives should take a hard look at what they are not doing at home. Just a thought to entertain.

Enjoy the upcoming weekend that is for most a mere day away.

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September 7, 2023 · 10:03

Media Markets

That was what stuck in my mind when I saw the Guardian view of Starfield. The writer Keza MacDonald crying like a little girl, giving us view and “Along with several others, including the greatly respected games publications Eurogamer and Edge, we were left waiting until the game’s early access release last Friday to play it.” Yes, there is seemingly some cherry picking happening, but that has been the case for years. What does matter is that Starfield is not that great release. Some ratings are as low as 70%, that is a massive miss for the budget and alignment of stars. Skyrim with one exception was a 90% plus all across the board. There is a reason that this game has been heralded since 11.11.11, not because 11 is the crazy number (yo figure that part out). Skyrim is no matter how critics see it mind boggling. It still rocks the current generation hardware based on a previous generation console specifications. So when the Guardian gives us “It is very much like No Man’s Skyrim, as much about menus and mining and navigation as it is about finding interesting quest-lines and exploring planets on a whim”. For me this is funny as both Skyrim and No Man’s Sky are ‘earth’ shattering products, they are both unique in their own way and it seems that Starfield is neither. The reviewer gives us “Starfield has had a mixed but broadly positive reception so far”. The article reads like a cry song on how the Guardian is not one of the chosen few, but does it give a good view of Starfield? Nope, it does not. No we are given “Negotiating all this is part of the job for games journalists” all whilst the title ‘Bethesda chose not to give us early access to Starfield – and it’s readers who lose out’. My view? Nope, the readers lost out as you whined like a little bitch. So when we are given “I am reliably informed that this is one of those games that might get its hooks into you after the first 10 or even 20 hours” with the added “though, the forthcoming fantasy Elder Scrolls 6 might be a more worthwhile investment of time” and that is a review? Go cry me a river. Oh, and before I forget the new Eder Scrolls 6 is (for now) not expected before 2026. Does that mean you will whine another 2 years? So the Guardian shirked their duty (as I see it), when the floodgates go away they could have given us the goods. What is good, what is less and what sucks. No, we get a ‘I am not a chosen reviewer cry song’. 

Early access is marketing and I get that and Bethesda, Microsoft and pretty much EVERY game developers will hand over their cherries to the best source of gaming news, which is in this case anyone with the right following that will sing praise of their game. A YouTube reviewer called Parris gave the game four out of five, which translates to an 80% game. He gave us the goods why it is great, on things that are not great and things that need improvement. His review (for a lack of better term) was stellar. That is the review that makes me buy a game and that matters to Bethesda, that was their goal and he delivered on that with  (what I believe to be ) a honest opinion. I see and in this case saw way too many reviews. Plenty of haters there too (not sure why). You see an RPG is rather specific. It is a niche game which grew from small to huge in less than 10 years and Bethesda has been the major driving force in that growth. I believe that they opened the floodgates with Oblivion and the flood never stopped since 2006. Bethesda pulled that off and the added water damage that Fallout 3 brought just kept on going. So we all might have set our views to high after Skyrim, a true crowning achievement for any developer. 

So what went wrong?
I believe that the media is part of that problem, the digital dollars made for a new kind of writing and games are not part of that equation. The media now relies on self proclaimed hypes and that does not sit well with the current developers. Portkey games is a mere example (Hogwarts Legacy) and now Bethesda. So will the media adjust, or will we see another cry story when Guerrilla Software selects their reviewers for the third Horizons game? There is no indication, but that might come before Elder Scrolls 6 (speculative wishful thinking). In the meantime there is a lot more coming and it is not on some developers. You see, I have been trying to keep tabs on the new Tencent Technology handheld console which they are doing with Logitech and how much media have we seen? Not that much. Is it an anti-China thing? That new console will bite into the marketshare of Amazon and Microsoft for sure. It will support Microsoft gaming and as such it will grow fast, but the media seemingly ignored it to the largest extent. I keep tabs on it as it could facilitate my IP and if Tencent wants the 50 million new subscriptions, it can. Amazon seemingly doesn’t want it, Google dropped it Stadia and now Tencent has the option of getting in excess of 50 million new ‘gamers’, surpassing Microsoft within a year, just like Nintendo did with its Switch. Should this come to pass, Tencent technologies will come close to Sony, closer than Microsoft has EVER been. This all matters because the media is keeping gamers in the dark. So when we reconsider the headline part ‘and it’s readers who lose out’ it is not that, it is the media who changed the way they wrote, to adhere to digital dollars, to adhere to emotional flames and that is what most readers are a little sick of. It drive me to create an IP that pushes Facebook and others out of the way. Gamers want to game, but the console has other options too and with streaming that now comes to the surface and a player like Google should have been on the front lines there, not dumping their stadia, but that might merely be me. 

So there will be an upside for Bethesda/Microsoft. Even as their console is no longer the bees knees (it never was), Tencent Technologies could fill a gap that Bethesda might assist filling. Yet I do believe that they need to have a very hearty conversation with reviewers like Parris Lilly (gamertech radio) to upgrade Starfield to ‘Starfield More’. It could propel Starfield from a average 70%+ game to the game that it needed to be (85%-90%) and that would be a massive increase and gamers will applaud that setting. What is funny is that streaming allows for this and for Bethesda to push that envelope to a new setting might be a way to go (merely one of a few) but the crying Keza MacDonald (at the Guardian) didn’t think that through. No, crying and waiting for a 2026 release was the answer that the reader was given. Within an hour I offered a new destiny, a new horizon and a new hope (yes, a Star Wars reference) which in this case applies in more than one way. 

And for me? Well if it comes to the Tencent handheld I might actually play Starfield as well, it might even be a reason to get that handheld (My Switch just died). And that is the gamer field, the gamer field is forever in motion. We might hate Microsoft, we might hate Sony, but we are always looking on that next fix that gaming provides for. All gamers seek it and we are minds forever voyaging (yes, a gaming pun). 

So what next?
Well to be honest, I had closed the Starfield book, mainly because I am not playing it. Yet the Guardian opened that door again with that pathetic article and blood needed to be drawn (I sharpened my Yanagiba knife for the occasion). As stated in earlier articles, I believe in fair play and being honest with shedding blood and tears. Simply put, I will not shed a tear when shedding Microsoft blood, they did it to themselves, but the media doesn’t get that consideration. The media market changed and even as it is not always visible, it tends to be overly visible in gaming. Gamers are a funny lot (I am one of them), pushing their buttons comes at a price, which Don Mattrick learned the hard way on May 21st 2013, now a little over 10 years ago and Microsoft is still bleeding from that event. More-so if Tencent surpasses them by December 2024. Still it is not merely Microsoft, it is the media spin that is pushing gamers into new fields and even as Starfield was to be that force, it is not to late for Starfield, they still have options. I believe that Bethesda has a hidden diamond there. Am I right? I am not certain, but a game that took this much time, energy and resources cannot die on an average setting, Bethesda has created too many great titles for a new IP just to sizzle and that is my view on the matter.

Enjoy the day.

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August 26, 2023 · 16:11

You were saying?

After yesterday I had all these ‘complaints’ and how wrong I was, that this would never happen and I rejoiced, because the evidence was already there. I was actually dreading todays article (which will now happen tomorrow) and puts Apple and Google in a setting of funny money. But first this part. So, people were sure I was wrong? So let’s take a look at Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/8/25/saudi-arabia-considering-chinese-bid-to-build-nuclear-plant-report-says) gives us ‘Saudi Arabia considering Chinese bid to build nuclear plant, report says’ where we are given “Saudi Arabia is considering a Chinese bid to build a nuclear power plant in the kingdom amid frustration over the United States’ stipulations for supporting Riyadh’s quest for nuclear power, the Wall Street Journal has reported” which with the added “In 2019, a senior Chinese official said Beijing could build as many as 30 overseas nuclear reactors through its “Belt and Road” infrastructure drive over the following decade”. So to give you the bland numbers, a nuclear reactor will cost between 6 and 8 billion. So 30 of them amount to around $200,000,000,000 that is revenue the US is now losing directly, one deal cost that much. I have no doubt that China will get a mere 1-3 reactors to start with, yet this amounts to well over $20,000,000,000 from the start. Revenue the US (optionally partially EU too) will lose. One deal sets that strain on the US revenue needs and partially European too. Now we also get (from an unknown source at http://www.ecns.cn/m/news/culture/2023-08-25/detail-ihcskrzm0994854.shtml) there we are given ‘Saudi Arabia to teach two Chinese classes weekly in secondary schools’, if this is true then the KSA are tightening bonds with China and that spells a bad year for America. I might have foreseen a lot of this, but to see operational steps being done implies that the USA is done in the Middle East. In addition to this I wonder how far the steps are at present with the UAE. You see they are both joining BRICS, as such they both stand to gain by these steps at present. Even as the UAE might not be seeking nuclear power, they (especially Dubai) stands to gain a lot by having at least one. So whatever is under options with Saudi Arabia, I reckon that the UAE is not far behind on this. In a day we see the stage where the US, due to its own stupid actions is about to lose out on well over 200 billion, and it is seemingly all going towards China. So you were saying? And how much more losses will America cop before it starts to realise that the folly approach from 2019 onwards was stupid on a premium level? 

And this is merely the beginning. As NEOM grows, so will the opportunities that China will get, America, the UK and EU pretty much priced themselves out of those markets. And the news goes from bad to worse. None at the moment, but in Q4 2023 there will be a lot more news clippings on options that are now no longer going to the American Coffers, that part is pretty clear at this point. So I was right all along. It doesn’t make me happy or joyous, yet for the Americans who realise that they are out they might want to have a heart to heart with the politicians and analysts who should have seen this long before I did and if they did, why was nothing done?

Enjoy the weekend.

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August 25, 2023 · 19:06

And then there were 6 more

I have been expecting this, I have been awaiting it. OK, I have a few different reasons, but the added BRICS members (from January 1st 2024) are Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. I don’t think that the people get how much of a issues this is going to be. BRICS members, just like any other membership (like EU, NATO) will give preference to its own members first. On ‘the seventh guest’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/06/21/the-seventh-guest/) I wrote “I am certain that Russia and China will use this opportunity that opened up, I just do not know how at present.” That was June 2019. There was no war looming in the Ukraine (and BRICS was not on anyones radar). This setting would be coming naturally from China and now we are about to see that play. Now consider that Saudi Arabia imports from United States was a simple US$16.22 Billion during 2021, now also consider that U.S. Exports to Saudi Arabia constitute 14.2% of total U.S. exports of those commodities worldwide. Now consider that these two numbers will diminish by at least 50% and those trades all go to China (optionally Russia too). I reckon that January 2024 will be the start where the debt levels the US currently has can no longer be allowed. Doing so will end its existence sooner and sooner. Should the US default, they will drag the EU and Japan down with them. A sentiment that China will not shed a tear about. Egypt is interesting as it propels the Saudi plans for their global G5 plans a lot further and a lot faster and it puts the EU and US out of the game pretty much overnight. As such there are signs that the latter two are racing to get agreements in play now. Something Saudi STC and Chinese Huawei are eager to block. Now consider a second part. The quoted setting was “the relationship is that the United States of America (USA) provides military protection of the Kingdom in exchange for a reliable oil supply from the Saudis, pricing of oil in USA dollars, and Saudi support for American foreign policy operations across the world” under those steps China is the most likely party to enlarge their options and they stand to get a lot more oil, oil that is likely not to go to the US and EU from January 1st 2024 (or at least a decent part of it). The latter one is a speculation, but it fits the long term play China is employing and in this I could be wrong. The KSA has long term agreements with the USA. The larger concern isn’t merely the KSA. In this new agreement Iran and the UAE join and now there is a new balancing point in the Middle East and the Emirates are part of that. So how much import does the UAE get from the USA and EU? So when they too go from “United Arab Emirates Imports from United States was US$16.88 Billion during 2021”as well as “European Union Exports to United Arab Emirates was US$37.38 Billion during 2022” and now consider that these two will go down by at least 50%, if not a whole lot more. That gives us $99,000,000,000 in lost commerce from these two places alone and that is merely the start. So how will their government credit cards go when they do not have these revenue streams continue? After that consider the damage that lost revenue from Egypt could get up to as well as increased revenue to China and this is not new, that danger existed from 2019, but certain American politicians were to ego driven and now it all comes to a speculated halt in 16 weeks. For China it will turn out to be a very merry Christmas this year. For the EU and USA a lot less so. But they were warned (not by me), these so called wannabe’s making the calls had more than information I had and they played the ostrich game. So how is that playing out for them? If you were hoping for some miracle cure from me you would be wrong. As I see it, it is too late for that. The US and UK should have adjusted their courses at least 3 years ago (7 would have been better). In the end for several players their upcoming BRICS membership is merely  business decision and that is what China and India are hoping for, because it opens their options by a fair bit starting in 2024. 

As I personally see it, the endgame will play itself, I see no moves left for the Commonwealth, the EU or the USA. Setting that should and could have been avoided for close to 5 years were never done and now with an enlarged new player on the global stage we can watch and see Wall Street implode on itself. To see the desperate go nuts on greed missed all because of some ego driven politicians will be stellar on a few levels. You see a secular population is a weird thing, the moment things go really south, they will rely on the faith of others to let them continue. Does that make the profoundly lost sentiment a drive of sarcasm or a natural wave of irony? I am not sure what applies more but as an antithesis they might be feeding each other for some time to come (especially when the media wants to get as much digital dollars as it can). 

I honestly wonder which systems will still be in play by April 1st 2024, what a joke that will be. Enjoy the weekend.

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August 24, 2023 · 19:41

The brotherhood of NASA

OK, I took notice of news today. I only took notice today as it either escaped my attention, or the western coverage has been dismal. But the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66590446) gives notice that India is now the 4th nation to land on the moon. Preceded by USA, Russia and China it nows becomes a member of a very exclusive club. Not the UK, not France and not Germany. None of them made membership to the American Express Stellar Black Card (an extremely exclusive version of the AMEX card), it was India who did. And I am happy for India. A nation most nations and its citizens look down on, sneer at and make fun of. That nation is now a lunar nation.

The interesting part is that no one is ‘cashing’ in on that, on the pride. So above is an image, part of an image of a board game I remember playing in the 70’s. It was all about NASA then. I was watching in amazement to the TV when someone left a footprint on the moon (no negativity implied). The board game fuelled our excitement. This is a different board game, but that is the part I remember. Now consider that same game on Facebook, on your mobile. To play with friends and others. 

All now watching the ISRO logo on their board. On trains, in the office (during coffee breaks) and the ISRO has earned it, they are 4th in a game that most would say that India is a horse no show. And India got there ahead of many others, even many G20 nations. They have earned their laurels. 

And for comedy, in light of the accusations that a NAFO fella kicked the Russian moon lander out of orbit I would like to offer the idea of a NAFO block card. If you have it, you can play it whilst the lander is orbiting the moon BEFORE it lands. Then you roll the dice again. With 1-5 the opponent is halted for one move, if you get a 6, the lander is destroyed and that player has to start again at the liftoff point. I saw the NAFO fella ‘documentary’ on Twitter, so it must be real.

But that last part is merely a funny moment for me to add an element. What matters is that there have been moon games going back to the 70’s, perhaps even before that and India can now use that to spread the fame of the ISRO, they have earned it. We can be all kinds of jealous, yet in the end they got to the moon. They might be 4th, but there is no way to tell what else they will achieve and we need to be reminded that greatness comes on all shapes and sizes and from almost every direction. The ISRO showed us this with the Chandrayaan-3. A moonlander who completed its landing on August 23rd 2023 and we should remember this. India has every right to be proud of this moment and so they should be.

Enjoy today and feel free to dream of whatever you want. 

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August 19, 2023 · 23:50

It started with television

To get the entire mess I will start with a television episode.

The line was “Not that I don’t appreciate the sentiment behind your nightmare scenario” it was linking a conversation between President Bartlett and Dr. Takahashi. The episode was ‘A good Day’ season 6 episode 17. Yes, this part is fiction and some of the mentioned elements were too, but not all and that is the striking part. This episode aired in March 2005. You think that would be the end of it, but you would be wrong. Lets take a look at reality.

The Financial Times gave us ‘Saudi Arabia cuts holdings of US Treasuries to 6-year low’ on august 17th (at https://www.ft.com/content/2925952d-1e20-4748-8fa4-05b3605fc46a). There we are given “Saudi Arabia sold down its holdings of US Treasuries in June to the lowest in more than six years, as the kingdom directs more funds to foreign equity and domestic investments. The kingdom held $108.1bn of Treasury securities in June, down $3.2bn from May and below the $119.7bn it held at the end of last year, according to data from the US Treasury department.” This is merely part one, the second part is seen with ‘China likely to cut more US debt holdings’ (at https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202308/16/WS64dce79ba31035260b81c880.html) this is not the end, this is merely the beginning of what was described in the West Wing as the nightmare scenario. You would think that the EU and Japan would come to the aid of the US, but you would be wrong. Mario Draghi overspend trillions in the past and now the EU credit card is stretched to the max. Japan had in March 2023, a Japanese public debt is estimated to be approximately 9.2 trillion US Dollars, or 263% of GDP. Japan has no place to go and that is the beginning of systems collapsing. The US is in its endgame towards becoming an economic third world nation. 

Yet there is more tom come. We also get (at https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-entire-financial-monetary-social-180841464.html) ‘‘It’s The Death Of The Entire Financial, Monetary And Social System’: This Market Expert Warns The U.S. Dollar Is Quickly Losing Its Reserve Status.’ I do not know Jing Pan and I do not know whether she is correct, but she gives us one part that struck a nerve. She gives us “In March, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank grabbed major headlines. After the bank sold its Treasury bond portfolio, it incurred a substantial loss, causing depositors to question its liquidity and leading to a bank run. Amid this market upheaval, Silvergate Bank, First Republic Bank and Signature Bank failed as well. “This banking crisis is not over,” she said. “Maybe they’ve been able to paper over it, and so everybody is calm, and you have consumer confidence going up and all of this other kind of garbage. But it’s built on a house of lies.”” It struck a nerve because I got there through different means. You see when the SVB issues was playing out, we suddenly get a news article with Janet Yellen who is keeping tabs on the situation. Janet Yellen, United States Secretary of the Treasury. Not some governor from California, not someone from the banking industry. No, it was El Jefe from the treasury herself. It was overkill. I had issues and I wrote about them earlier (not sure when). I wondered why the SVB was in that setting and why Yellen personally took notice. I wondered who was holding the US bonds. Because banks had some of the bonds, but no one had a list of how much and no one had a clue (or remained silent) on how much the SVB was holding. 

As such I had an issue, things weren’t adding up. And now the two largest finders of the planet are shedding the US debt. As I see it the US has painted themselves in a corner and things will go ugly soon enough.

This is where the next article comes in. The article (at https://tickernews.co/u-s-credit-card-debt-levels-just-surpassed-1-trillion/), which is not the only source gives us ‘U.S. credit card debt levels just surpassed $1-trillion’, as such 300 million people have a collective debt of over on thousand billion. This amounts to the degree that every American has a debt well over $3,000. So how will this unfold when the dollar drops? Now, I am generalising but the larger stage is now set. Bonds are going nowhere and in 2022 long-dated U.S. notes lost 39.2% in value. So how safe are those bonds now? We know about the inflation and that it is rising, but CNN reports that ‘US banks sitting on unrealised losses of $620 billion’. This came to us in March, as such the SVB issues are rising, are they not? So where are those bonds? Who is reaping the losses on that one and the nightmare scenario that a television series gave to us in 2005 is about to become a very real issue in 2023 and 2024. 

We might have thought 20 years ago that bonds were the safest place to be, but only 20 years later and this is no longer a reality and moreover the allies of the USA are shedding them, or cashing in to reduce the damage from them. This leaves America in a very vulnerable position. As I personally see it, they painted themselves in a corner and the windows on the two adjacent walls are soon out of reach to anyone in that corner. To add to this, the paint is red and massively toxic (as I see it), so no release unless someone can find a little over 20 trillion to help the US, the usual suspects are out of cash and I reckon Russia will not offer help either. Consumers have a total accumulated debt that surpasses a trillion and the bad news keeps on stacking up. All because politicians were playing the ‘screw it’ card. Now that the ledgers are up for grabs the US is sitting in the worst spot it has been in in well over a century and corporate and business America is looking for any way out of the US at present. 

When you see that image and you add the failures of Microsoft a different image comes to mind and it is not a pretty one. So why Microsoft? Because it is part of the Dow Jones Index. It might only be for 4.9% but when that goes south the DJI will see a much larger problem. You see it is not merely Microsoft, it becomes an issue for Goldman Sachs as well and when the dollar collapses. What do you think that places like UnitedHealth Group, Johnson & Johnson, VISA, American Express and Walmart will be left with? When over 150 million will have no money left the consumers pushing the aforementioned companies up will also fade pushing rates and results down. All things that could have been seen will over 2-3 years ago. And there is no blaming the Russian-Ukrainian war, this would have happened no matter what. Optionally it happened sooner, but not much sooner. 

Even if ‘A good day’ was the start, the settings have been in place for years. I believe the media merely looked the other way, because the other view was sexy and optionally offered more digital dollars, another funny money business. 

So am I wrong?
That is the question. I could be and relating articles like I am is to some degree folly, but it was all I had at the time. And if there is an economic person (I am not one) giving us a clear answer why I am wrong, I would accept that, but there are too many issues in the field and there are too many issues out in the open. I wonder if anyone could counter them all. But I will keep my eyes open to see if someone goes that way.

Anyway, have a great day and I am about to start the final day of the weekend.

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August 16, 2023 · 18:03

Evolution is not merely the person

The setting started a few days ago, yet the new stage we are shown is merely hours old. Even as it seemingly started on August 12th with ‘Tapping an economy’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/08/12/tapping-an-economy/) the stage is getting redefined, almost as we speak. This is seen with ‘Saudi Arabia and UAE race to buy Nvidia chips to power AI ambitions’ (at https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-and-uae-race-to-buy-nvidia-chips-to-power-ai-ambitions-20230815-p5dws6). I believe personally it is merely one of two sides. You see, we are given “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are buying up thousands of the high-performance Nvidia chips crucial for building artificial intelligence software, joining a global AI arms race that is squeezing the supply of Silicon Valley’s hottest commodity.” But it is merely one side and this side is putting pressure on the US, it’s companies are running out of funs and their credit cards are reaching limits. These two players have the cash to run circles around dozens of nations and that is not the only place they are in an advantage. I will not go back to my IP (no mater how valid it is). The larger station is that these two players will need data centres and that is where EVROC (as discussed in the earlier article 4 days ago) has the ability to set up national data centres, a stage that takes American companies out of the loop. I am not anti-American, I am anti-stupid and the catering that data centres have given the US companies all whilst places like Cambridge Analytics opened up to is now starting to show. There is the added setting that nationally speaking these two players prefer to be set in, the stage is not merely based on national needs. I personally believe that they have a ‘non-American’ involvement mindset. And I reckon that evidence will be proven when EVROC is allowed these two new data centres as well. It puts the USA in a massively decreasing setting. Another (non-related) stage is added to this. Only a few hours ago Yahoo Finance (merely one source) is giving us (at https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-being-dethroned-india-just-201500390.html) ‘India just bought 1M barrels of oil from the UAE using rupees instead of USD for the first time’, we can chalk this up to a whole set of reasons and if someone states that this will be the pro-forma setting of BRICS, I will not be able to support or oppose it. There is not enough data accessible to me. The larger stage is set that the US is being ignored for too man settings and that is merely in the last week. I do not care how many Pizza al Fungi’s Janet Yellen has consumed, or how magical that dinner was. The stage is that the US has become trivialised and a lot of it is by their own doing. So whilst some are staging to trivialise that India is not using the US dollar. The reality is that only 3 years ago that option would be ludicrous and here we see it play out. So is BRICS becoming more powerful, it the US becoming weaker and just how much gains will Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates make in this year alone? EVROC is still a Swedish conundrum, but there are too many voices out there that are too anti-American voiced (which is not anti-stupid, my personal setting). I know I am seeing my own prophecies come to reality, but not in a way I envisioned. It could be that I never had the proper glasses to see it all, or it is because new elements are coming to bear and that second part is the larger stage I am now worried about. Not because of what the KSA and UAE are doing, but because of the US and its Trump and Karen setting, it is highly likely that it will drag the EU and Japan down with them. These latter two made the wrong calls a few times and now that the endgame (of the US) is starting to show, the back paddle actions of the EU (optionally towards China) might not be enough. I have no idea how this will play out for the Commonwealth. The stage of Canada with wildfires and 90% of the NWT being a goner looks more like a scene from ‘How it ends’ (2018) than reality, no matter how surreal both are. As such this stage will impact the rest of the Commonwealth. The UK is close to broke, and with Canada in the state it is in, the Commonwealth needs to find a safe place and footing and the US is less likely to be that place at present. It needs to find a solitary road to link to nations and that is the hard part. I have no idea what the safe route is, but I do feel certain that the US is no longer that part. I feel that finding a way to connect to the Middle East is presently safer than a link to China, but in reality I am speculating on what the safer route is. 

The setting we see now (the Nvidia AI chip) where we were given (at https://www.crn.com.au/news/ai-chips-could-save-future-data-centres-money-nvidia-599254)“Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang has a mantra that he has uttered enough times that it almost became a joke during his SIGGRAPH 2023 keynote last week: “the more you buy, the more you save.”” Yet the setting is not merely ‘the more you save’ it is about to become who owns them and those who cannot afford them and now the KSA and UAE will have additional power positions. So consider “AI chips can save companies significant money on costs compared to traditional CPUs for what he views as the future: data centres, fuelled by demand for generative AI capabilities, relying on large language models (LLMs) to answer user queries and generate content for a wide range of applications” and a place like EVROC could set up two data centres all whilst these two nations provide the AI chips required, now we get an entirely new play and it will give these two nations the power to set a stage that excludes the US or their tech-firms. A stage none of them ever had before, as such do you still think I am boasting or creating non-sense? Too many sources had the elements available and the larger media ignored the puzzle pieces. So, is my puzzle correct? Not necessarily, but the pieces fit the image we have all seen before. This does not make the image correct, but it makes it decently likely and the more BS the American media spouts the less reliable it should be seen. This does not make China or the Middle East more reliable, but in the setting I currently see it makes the Middle East (KSA and UAE) a lot safer than the US has been the last few years and that counts, because that reinforces the image that Nvidia and EVROC are giving us, with optional speculations from yours truly (aka moi).

Your guess is as good as mine as to what comes next, but the larger fighting ring (a square setting) is about to show us who the contenders are and the amount of underdogs they face. Because no matter how much BS an underdogs brings to the table, in the ring it is what you can achieve and as I personally see it, the US, EU and Japan are starting to become the largest underdogs this century, which could be a stage pushed in by evolution.

Have fun today.

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