Category Archives: Finance

My presumption is real

This article goes over several parts, parts you might agree with and parts you will not agree with. That is fair! You see several parts are set to presumption, which is still better than speculation. The difference is seen in the meaning. Presumption is an idea that is taken to be true on the basis of probability. There is more than probability in my case. I have worked in IT since 1983, as such I have been around (at least twice). Speculation is the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence. And both are important because I am talking from the past, which is not always seen or accepted as evidence. This is fair, and this is why people might disagree and I get it, never take anything for granted, not Ven when I say it. I love the expression from NCIS in this case ‘Trust but verify’ Gibbs was right, always verify what you learn. It is the only real way to move forward.

So this all started yesterday with an article. The article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66118831) gives us ‘Gallium and germanium: What China’s new move in microchip war means for world’, they say it is 8 hours old, but I saw the article a little over 25 hours ago, so not sure what changed. The setting is “Under the new controls, special licences are needed to export gallium and germanium from the world’s second largest economy. The materials are used to produce chips and have military applications. The curbs come after Washington made efforts to limit Beijing’s access to advanced microprocessor technology.” You can turn and twist this to your heart content, but the setting is inaccurate and largely incorrect. Not what you read, that is fine. But there is a whole mess that precedes this and to see this we need to go back to the 90’s. You see, the IT world saw hoe the arms race was going and how military contractors were filling their pockets and the IT world took a page from that stage and started its IT Armistice race. I was caught up in it as well. A 386, a 486, a 486DX2, the Pentium, the Pentium 2, the Pentium-450, the Pentium2, as such between 1993 and 2002 I had wasted thousands on 7 systems, 7 systems in 10 years and I had enough. You see for the most the Pentium2 was enough to do 90% of everything I did, except gaming. Then I switched to consoles and saved myself thousands more. As such I avoided to the largest extend the graphic card war which might seem small but high end gaming needs a $1200 card, my PS5 was less then a thousand dollars on day one. In this Microsoft also pushed the borders, making us upgrade again and again. Oh, they played their cards cautiously and they played it well. Yet consider “Vista alone had 50 million lines of code, 10 million lines more than its successor, Windows 7. Because of the excessive amount of bloat and code, it was very slow on devices at the time, even on the latest and greatest hardware of 2007. This meant that it was more expensive to buy a machine that ran Vista properly.” Between Windows XP and Windows 7 we had the Vista nightmare and it cost too many too much. Yet weirdly enough with a little effort (Suse Linux at $99) you had an equal if not much better option, it would work on most Pentium2 systems like lightning. You could download it for free but for that money you got the discs and a DVD, the DVD had all the discs which included Linux and a truckload of programs, even open office I believe. If not it was easily downloaded. A linux lookalike version of Microsoft office that was free. It had an SQL database and so much more, even a nice collection of games, but they were not high resolution games. Fo that you needed a console and you saved thousands. It is this armistice race. We went though thousands of processors and that is what counts, because that drained the Gallium and Germanium we had and now China is one of the few that has it now. You see, we might act against China, but Gallium is found in Japan, South Korea, and Russia as well. China has however 90% at present. That does not mean there isn’t more, but finding it is not easy. Germanium is also found in Canada, Finland, Russia and the United States. China has about 60% and that is where we see the odd duck out (on your left). And is it not interesting that the second material is not mentioned that it is also found in Canada and the US? In this greed was again a much larger stage to this. The IT Armistice race dwindled whatever the west had and now China and Russia seem to have the upper hand. Still the larger stage is not merely who has it, but it becomes who can find it better, because that is where this is heading. I get it, we all need the latest PC (or MAC) but ask yourself, what allows you to do what you need to do? That is the question that IT providers like Dell and HP were eager to avoid at all cost as it impacted their bottom dollar. They will make the ‘party line’ To enjoy the best of Windows (whatever version) you are best off having a (the latest chip). That is what caused a large part of the drain and I was every bit as guilty. By the time I figured out what was going on I my bank account had about $22,000 less (11 systems with 2 still in use). You can scream whatever you want on how I could ‘save’ some dollars, but the truth is that we all enjoyed that feeling of the latest system, but it came at a price. So when we now see “a Pentagon spokesperson said the US had reserves of germanium but no stockpile of gallium” and why is that? It it is such a crucial element, why is there no stockpile? That is an easy answer, but no answer will be forthcoming. A race for supremacy, all whilst at least two racers are no longer able to keep up and that race is about to turn nasty for at least one of them. The Commonwealth might rely on Australia, but until the deposits are found the UK is in a tight spot. As I personally see it we might have to take a step back and see how else we can get the job done. As such I am phrasing an extremely speculative question. French chemist Paul-Émile Lecoq de Boisbaudran found in 1875 the substance we now know to be gallium, it is in group 13 of the periodic table and is similar to the other metals of the group (aluminium, indium, and thallium. My question becomes Is there another solution that employs indium or thallium? I honestly have no idea, I do not even know where these two are found and whether they can do what Gallium does. Also there is Rhodium, can it (or a combination) get the job done? I have no idea, but it seems to me that the head-banging against a wall we raised ourselves is massively stupid to say the least and there is every chance that there is a chemist and an electronic engineer who will laugh at my suggestion, which is fair enough. To see this we need to look at 1965 when Friedrich Schächter created a ballpoint that works in space as it is a pressurised ink solution. In in 1967 it was reported that NASA purchased approximately 400 pens for $2.95 a piece, all whilst Bic pens were $0.29 in those days. Russia decided to solve it by using a pencil, which costed $0.39 at the time. So we can caress our ego’s or find another solution.  And this is merely one of many issues. So will you embrace someone who adds 10 million lines of code, or seek whatever else is out there? I get it, the other solution will not work for everyone, but over 2 billion people use a PC out there. I am willing to bet the bank that at least 25% could do with a cheaper solution. There are (according to some) an estimated 300 million computers in production annually. I feel certain that at least a third doesn’t need to be bought and if Microsoft woke up and recreated Windows XP for households and adds a decent office version to it several other gallium issues could suddenly be less stringent. In 2018 970 units of Gallium were used. In 2022 it was almost 3500 units (the chart did not clearly give me what the units were). Why is that? I know that PC output is not over 300% in 2022. There might be other uses as well, but I would not know that, but the more I see the more questions I end up with and the BBC (or its article) isn’t giving me the goods. There was no mention of Canada or the US in it, was there?

It is time for plenty of people to wake up, I for one would send a wake up call (plus coffee) to Dr. Stefanie Tompkins of DARPA, perhaps they can find alternative options for these two metals? Not the weirdest idea and as the Pentagon needs these materials it seems to me that between lunch and diner DARPA might find an answer, these boffins are kinda clever so it is one way to go. What do you think?

Enjoy the middle of the week, its all uphill in anticipation to the weekend until Friday. 

 

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A wild side to creativity

To get to this point, I need to take you on a little tour into my (optionally devious) mind. In the mid to late 80’s I had an idea. An idea any horny man in his twenties will have. In this setting (I was an amateur photographer) I was talking to Claudia Schiffer, convincing her to pose for me naked for one picture. We would then edit the image to show the bikini she would pose for and that one picture would ensure hundreds of bikini shots and she would get a royalty for every photograph produced. Yes, you laugh now, but in those days Photoshop was merely a whisper, the editing options we now take for granted did not even exist in those days. It was a slightly delusional idea and guess what, it never happened (big surprise). That was the premise that happened a long time ago, decades even. Today I had another daydream, I dozed off and I lost a competition, my consolation price was taking a picture of Mischa Barton (no idea how she got into the mix), she was wearing a very transparent top (extremely transparent) and I had to make a handbag picture. So I had her hold it in front of her face, her arms hid the nipples and the byline was ‘I do not use my face to promote a product’. You are laughing now, but there is a lot more to this. You see, in the early 90’s I tested a product from Macromedia called Director. 

The product had things that were beyond imagination (in those days). That image is needed, as it sets the stage for the now. You see when we consider that old program, it had options for presentations that many have forgotten about. What was the case is that you could set a stage, complete with people and objects and it would get us the setting like below (now in full 3d).

The 3d model optionally starts naked, but can be dressed like a barbie, we add the elements, accessories, the lights and the image starts to shape. The rectangle is what the camera sees and when we are happy a 24 bit image is created from scratch. You think this is a joke, it is not. Consider that there are 75,000,000 professional photographers in the world, the amateur photographer group is at least 4 times bigger, so we now have an optional population that is closer to half a billion. Consider that a photo model costs $200 upwards to $15000 an hour, and it does not need to include people, there are plenty of photographers that go for food, cars, luxury items and now we get a entirely new stage. It is not merely the photographer. It becomes a prototyping scene for what some call AI (which does not yet exist), but the deeper machine learning systems rely on data and now we have a system that offers creation whilst that data feeds the learning machines, and besides that, it becomes a 24 bit photographic prototyping system, something that doesn’t even exist at present. All these students can work deep into the night without worrying about the $200 an hour taximeter called the photo model. I think that this all escalated when I was thumped to death by these ‘free slot machine’ advertisements. We all think it is a scam, but this seems to be about free slots and that makes no sense, unless an operator like Las Vegas wants to test a prototype new slot machines and tweak it to be the most efficient one until it is release to the money feeding audience in Las Vegas. A free slot machine system makes a lot more sense now, does it not? You can feed the revenue beast all you like, but until you find the angle that does not cost you money, optionally making you money in the process the endeavour is nothing more than a money pit. And in comes the hungry gamers who will never go to Las Vegas in the first place, now there is an optional need. 

Director was a brilliant idea, especially in an age when certain graphical options were not available (neither was computing power) and it set a new tone. It also gave us a new direction to consider and even as Director was a multimedia application authoring platform created by Macromedia and managed by Adobe Systems until its discontinuation ten years ago, it was a great idea in an age when there was nothing. It is now surpassed, but I do not think that the concept should be forgotten. For this we could look at the 1991 comedy ‘Others peoples money’ with Danny deVito. It was about the New England Wire & Cable Company and how one man’s need for greed takes it to the slaughter. The nice evolution was that the lawyer (Penelope Ann Miller) searches for a solution and finds it in a Japanese automaker that wants to hire New England Wire & Cable to manufacture stainless steel wire cloth for making automobile airbags, something which will make the company profitable again on a new expanding industrial product.  That is where we are, finding alternative uses for good products because Director was that. I merely wonder if anyone considered making it a two sided solution one one side a photographic prototyping tool, on the other side a system to teach deeper machine learning solutions a way to learn graphical sides to an artsy problem, one that requires containers loads of data, if not a load more than that. 

Well that was my Monday being creative, have a nice day.

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Escalation time

We see it, we ignore it and we shout issues of disbelieve. I am no different, I have ignored a few elements at times, even as the writing was on the wall (ceiling and floor too). I thought that politicians would wise up. I considered that the people would take the intelligent path, but a lot of them are not. As such I saw a wake up call. The call came from the Kashmir Observer giving us (at https://kashmirobserver.net/2023/07/29/the-burning-of-the-quran-represent-an-act-in-desperation/) ‘The Burning of the Quran Represents an Act in Desperation?’ It comes with a question mark, but I think that the question is a lot closer to the truth setting than anything I have seen so far. We are also given “West’s far right still live in their invincible, racial, never-ending civilisational supremacy.  However, the rise and fall of civilisations represents a universal fact. None of the dominant civilisations lasted forever. What is consistent in the fall of civilisations is arrogance and delusional belief of never-ending dominance, looking down in disdain at other people and values dear to them. The same arrogance that West demonstrated had been the feature of prior dominant civilisation that is Islamic golden age. That also saw barbarians among the other non-Muslim communities till savage barbarians in the form of Mongols descended on them from nowhere decimating Islam’s golden age, and palaces of tyranny, precious literature that had origin in Quran’s teachings.” I can get behind the sentiment, but there is an issue. I wonder if you can spot it. It is the use of ‘civilisation’. As we look at the settings of governments in the west, there is a claim of civilisation, but I feel that that semi tank left the building some time ago. I reckon that the setting was vacated with the departure of President Bill Clinton. He left the office with Wall Street in too much power and any setting that is greed driven will undo civilisation every single time. Civilisation does not compute to the bottom dollar and we have seen the impacts that followed. Now as the US is one step away from being a third world nation we are seeing the impact that christianity bends to the powerful players and in this case it was Wall Street. Ethicality went out the window and any secular power that enforces the bottom dollar gets to call shots and guess what, it opposes civilisation every single time. 

Then in comes Saudi Arabia, they were mostly quiet during the initial Quran burnings, but there would be a response and the Saudi Gazette (at https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/634563) gives us ‘Prince Faisal renews to his Swedish counterpart Saudi Arabia’s rejection for all attempts to offend Qur’an’, where we are given “Prince Faisal noted to Billström Saudi Arabia’s demand on taking immediate procedures to stop these extremist acts that are trying to undermine the holy books, and provoke the feelings of Muslims around the world.” An essential diplomatic step, but I personally fear it was not strong enough. I get that politically speaking as an Islamic nation Saudi Arabia is cautious on how to proceed, it makes sense, but the lack of actions and the strife of secular governments (in this case Nordic nations) make the lack of push an issue. You see, I wrote in several stories over the last few weeks that there is an issue with Freedom of speech versus discrimination, the burning of Islamic holy scriptures makes that a clear case. I am for freedom of speech, but not at the cost of accountability. That is the larger station. People think that freedom of speech is one anchor without any sides, but accountability gives weight to that freedom and that is what people forgot. To be honest at times I forget that too. Now my transgressions seem small and insignificant, but when you think of it, it matters to the value of freedom of speech and Sweden clearly forgot that part of the equation.

And in comes Iran. The funny part is that I tend to shy away from anything Iranian, yet in this case (at https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2023/07/29/2932699/muslim-nations-urged-to-cut-ties-with-countries-allowing-quran-desecration) they might actually have a more important case to bring. It starts with ‘Muslim Nations Urged to Cut Ties with Countries Allowing Quran Desecration’, not only are they correct there is a larger truth here. This is a setting that should have been championed by Saudi Arabia or even the United Arab Emirates, but it is Iran that gives us “Over the past month, the Holy Quran has been subject to acts of sacrilege by extremist elements in separate incidents in Sweden and Denmark, where authorities gave a green light to the desecration.” I do not completely agree, but I can see how Muslims would see it that way and they have every right to be angry. The larger truth was not anti Islam, it was pro ‘Freedom of speech’ and when you see coins on any table, you merely see one side (the clever people see two sides) but both forget for an instance that there was another side to that coin and it is the side we do not see, we realise that it is there, we merely ignore it and accountability would have taken care of it, but our minds crossed out the other side. And now we have a problem and it is a large one. If the Islamic nations rekindle with the Iranian sentiment and not with the cautious approach that the KSA and the UAE hold we end up with quite the problem. 

Another view is seen (at https://www.worldreligionnews.com/religion-news/quran-burnings-prompt-u-n-human-rights-body-to-urge-increased-action-against-religious-hatred/) where we are given ‘Quran Burnings Prompt U.N. Human Rights Body to Urge Increased Action Against Religious Hatred’, this sounds nice, but it is a little too late for this.

More importantly too many newspapers and media shunned this setting and it is Al Jazeera that showed us two weeks ago (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/12/un-bodys-motion-on-quran-burning-how-did-your-country-vote) the part that matters. The people against this increased action on Islamaphobia include the UK, the EU, and the US. They revere their freedom of expression and are refusing to let accountability take a center seat. A stage that they are intent on pushing, a place where there is freedom of religion as long as it is under the direction of christian based elected aficionados. Sounds familiar?

And I think it is about to get a lot worse. Personally I think it is time for the Kingdom Holding Company to take a serious look at my IP as it pushes a lot more than accountability, it unifies muslims and that could open a lot more doors, especially as it pushes western media out of the way. The fact that I had to rely on an Iranian source all whilst the western media is setting a stage that is no longer reliable or accurate is cause for concern. And this is not really the end of it all, a mere 15 minutes ago we were given ‘Denmark to put legal limits on protests involving Quran burnings’ and the setting there is “Denmark’s government on Sunday released a statement saying that it would put legal limitations in order to stop the demonstrations involving the burning of the holy book Quran in certain circumstances, citing security concerns”. Really? How about the EU charter where we are given “Any discrimination based on any ground such as sex, race, colour, ethnic or social origin, genetic features, language, religion or belief, political or any other opinion, membership of a national minority, property, birth, disability, age or sexual orientation shall be prohibited.” The burning of a Quran is a clear act of discrimination, it is time for the EU to own up to that reality and act accordingly. The cornerstone of all this is accountability, I have stated this for 13 years and now that it all comes to pass the setting becomes an accelerator for a lot of things. I saw the power that one point eight billion people have, I saw the impact and how quickly the sands of opportunity will decimate for the EU and US if they do not wisen up and that is about to happen. The three new BRICS members is one, but if they push for a ban of Nordic products is merely the first step, it could mean a lot more bans that the middle east could push for in the near future. So what happens when over 400 million people in the Middle East decide to ban products from the EU? Don’t think it will not happen because Sweden and Denmark are merely the first steps. When Asia (India and China) steps up to replace items that enrages people there will be a sudden drain of revenues all over the EU (US too). 400,000,000 people needing a new alternative for products. So what happens when these places ban all Cadbury and Nestle items and Amul items take their place? What happens when Paneer (Indian cheese) replaces European cheeses. I bet the Dutch, Swedes, French and Italians will not be happy and that is merely two out of hundreds of examples. The Middle East has buying power and what happens when that is pointed in another direction? 

That is the larger setting that we need to be aware of. Do you really think that you can have freedom of expression without accountability? We are about to enter a phase of escalations and it does not bode well for the EU (or US for that matter). Feel free to disagree, but when the clock rings and you see how in August / September revenues are down all across the board the EU finds itself in a stage that is merely less than an inch for another recession, no matter how much it is labelled an economic downturn, because that is always how it starts, but this time around it could last well over a year pushing a massive amount of businesses out of circulation. Then what?

And it is just the start of the week, have fun.

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It only took three years

That was what pushed into view. I was about to write about something else, a movie idea I had. Yet several other messages came into view which pushed me to realign my focus. You see, I had the view just before CES2020 that Huawei was going to be a large player, much larger than anyone guessed. Even I had not thought that far ahead as certain plays by the STC (Saudi Telecom Company) were not in view yet. Now it becomes a much bigger play and two players (Huawei and STC) could reenforce each other, a setting that was not visible in 2019. So lets take a look.

Article One
The first article was brought to us by the Hindustan Times last year (the year of Soylent Green, another idea that I already wrote about but came to the top of my mind again last night). Here (at https://tech.hindustantimes.com/tech/news/huawei-launches-harmonyos-to-compete-with-google-s-android-71622644049707.html) we are given the idea that Huawei is pushing for a release to 200 million mobile phones. An achievable mark to say the least, the rest was bla bla but the notion was given. 

Article Two
Tech outlook gave us two days ago (at https://www.thetechoutlook.com/news/technology/os/harmony-os-4-0-to-debut-on-august-4-mate-60-5g-expected-to-debut-alongside/) ‘Harmony OS 4.0 to debut on August 4’ and that is the part certain people were all waiting for. The text “Apart from Harmony OS 4.0, the Chinese manufacturer is rumoured to announce the Huawei Mate 60 5G at the HDC 2023 event. As mentioned above, it will be the brand’s first 5G flagship phone after facing US sanctions. While the Mate 60 series is expected to be announced at HDC 2023, the company will hold a dedicated launch event for it in September or October this year.” You see the ‘US sanctions’ part reads nice, but the play doesn’t go there. STC and Huawei has as of the coming month a larger setting. This setting will include Egypt, BanglaDash and Indonesia. This gives them a lot more than the targeted 200 million phones and the moment STC enters the EU they will have the needed traction, the STC 5G network will have some serious ‘umph’ as the expression goes. More important, a network that stretches to that degree will push the US and EU out of a few areas, or at least make them suffer the loss of expected revenue by some analytics, they will tumble twice over. 

I’ll be honest, I saw the play, but not to this degree as the STC was not on my radar. I reckon that there was always a chance that Etisalat (UAE) would grow, but that is not in the cards at present. This is important as the needs of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in the same direction, but they are not aligned. That difference is important and there is a chance that the STC will offer services that include the UAE. I reckon that the UAE might want to connect to Center3 and the STC for the additional business it will bring them, but that would be pure speculation on my side.

What does matter is that with the release of Harmony 4, on August 4th a new play opens up and it might go a long way to allow a digital setting to the MBC group to the settings they have in play at the moment. They will push the sports and news groups that are in the making with larger digital channels, just after they make their IPO offer (which Bloomberg mentioned only 3 weeks ago), now with the channels and digital groups in play it goes well beyond the shores we see at present and with Huawei at the mobile front, they can offer something larger than most have ever had and it will appeal to the hungry revenue entrepreneurs in Indonesia and BanglaDash. They will add hundreds of millions to their pool, hundreds of millions that haven’t ever had access to anything (of that nature). I reckon that by Q1 2024 the STC could have doubled in value and they were never a small player to begin with. Now add Egypt and you get a much larger population, mostly Muslim and all eager to be economic players. I reckon that BRICS had a few ideas on adding Saudi Arabia. And the US? Well they are still screaming middle east stability and requiring cheap oil in a play that is already outdated. And as we can clearly see, Saudi Arabia and China are getting along just fine, no EU or US required. That was a danger for some time and new we are about to see the fruition of these players. You still think the US was in Saudi Arabia for merely ‘stability’ reasons? Come to think of it Janet Yellen was in China recently, with these elements now in view was it really about what they say it was? 

This is in part speculation, it does not make it true, yet you have to wonder if I saw these events unfold, they did not? I might not have seen the impact of the STC and MBC groups in 2019, but these people (Jellen and Blinken) get a large 6 figure income more than me (Jellen gets a 7 figure income), you mean they were in the dark? Go cry me a river, please.

Huawei should have enough to get their target from Egypt, Indonesia and BanglaDash alone and they have close to half a dozen nations more on their mind (China being not the smallest one) and as expansions go, with the Huawei 5G network in play, the STC can grow a lot faster, allowing the MBC sports and news channels to reach a few additional nations. This alone will make people in the EU want to see what they are missing out of. I reckon that the advertisements alone will pay for this caper and then some. A stage that grew in under 4 years, as such the EU and US now have a problem. You see all these TV channels and media players are about to become obsolete to a much larger degree. They can shout MAGA and Karen’s all they like, the rest are able to switch the channel to something they would much rather watch and there it seems that the MBC Group has you covered. I personally wonder what Murdoch is worth by the end of 2024, because when the advertisers go away, he is just shouting arranged news to people who are not interested in listening, that part of the pool he soiled himself as I personally see it.

Enjoy the weekend, or as they say at MBC in Arabic “رحلة جديدة في الخدمات الرقمية”

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On the way to……

I was on route to some IP pondering when the Al Jazeera story ‘White House adviser Jake Sullivan meets Saudi crown prince for Jeddah talks’ crossed my path. Immediately the thought   “There are just so many ways you can beg for cheap oil” passed my mind. OK, that might have been out of line, but the premise still sets. The White House have send nearly every large caliber in the direction of Saudi Arabia without making it an overly clear ‘White House’ event. The story also gives us (yet again) ““We were going to, in fact, make them pay the price and make them, in fact, the pariah that they are,” Biden said during a 2019 Democratic debate.” These were hollow words given at the wrong time. And now almost 4 years later the setting is as dire as the US has ever had them, but OK. Try to make us all believe that this is about ““bilateral and regional matters”, the White House said, including initiatives “for a more peaceful, secure, prosperous and stable Middle East”” Sure, make it about the one thing that the Middle East does not need the US to initiate. It has initiated enough imbalance to last it an eternity. Even as Reuters gives us ‘Oil settles above April peak on tighter supply’ (at https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-up-supply-tightness-view-offsets-concerns-rate-hikes-2023-07-27/). We need to consider the impact of “Still, oil dropped on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories fell less than expected and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, leaving the way open for another increase.” You see, this scorcher of a summer on the northern hemisphere is also impacting energy costs, AC and cooling units are working overtime, as such winter could be a killer. I am using could be, because there is no clear evidence that this summer will leave us with a mild winter, implying that the US and EU are facing 5%-15% more energy needs and with the price of oil that could be a massive impact. One source is giving us today “Standard Chartered analysts conclude that crude prices are finally starting to catch up with the reality of a tightly supplied oil market.” Really? I got there months ago, so how are these clowns actually making their money? A tightly supplied market is the premise of shortages close to everywhere, and if you think that the EU is a nice place now, consider 28 members fighting each other for the same oil allotment, should be fun. I will invest in popcorn, we would all want some so we can watch the nagging tea bitches fight this one. I saw some forecast charts, but I had issues with them (optionally) for the most I might not get all the elements in that forecast. That is simple as I am not in that business. Yet the larger part is how the prices (allegedly) dip a little in early 2024, as I see it as these settings continue, the world (EU and USA) will face oil prices of $90+ from December 2023 onwards. I have no idea how high they will get, but the larger setting no matter how managed it is, the shortage will continue and press pressures up to weird levels all over Europe. All that is before China achieves a larger stake in the oil supplies. The US is silently hoping that they get it all from Russia, but without the cap in place China sees a larger benefit vying for the same stack that the US and EU are vying for. Call me nuts, but I reckon that is one scenario that could go south for the EU sooner rather than later. We all see what is given to us as to the events happening, but there is something off in sending National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan a month after Anthony Blinken went there. Something does not add up and it might just be me, but there is more to this visit than the press tells us (which is what the US likely told the press), they need something and cheap oil is the first thing that comes to my mind.

And in the heat the US and EU faces? Well I reckon one barrel of oil per household to keep it cool should do it. Oh no, there are only 2 million barrels to go round (times 90 days = 180) , so what about the other 600 million people. How will they get cooling? And what about winter, which 600 million need to face it without heating? Yes, the equation is not correct, but the sentiment is. For the first time since 1973 will we face an oil shortage. I tried to warn you all but too many called me stupid and insane (the latter might be true). So I will see you buried, frozen to death soon enough. I wonder if anyone realises how dire it is about to become and don’t blame me. All these analysts should have been there long before I arrived at that station, so why weren’t they? They can ignore it for now, but in February when the death count starts, their BS reasoning will be met with the anger of people who lost someone in the big freeze of 2023/2024. What will they do then?

Enjoy the day and enjoy the AC at current prices, the weekend is about to start.

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Sportwashing, what does it mean?

I have had my issues with the media for the longest of times. This time something on sportwashing, written by a woman (of course) where the Guardian gives us (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/revealed-saudi-arabia-6bn-spend-on-sportswashing) ‘Revealed: Saudi Arabia’s $6bn spend on ‘sportswashing’’. This setting comes across as a massive joke (to say the least). So when we are given “Billions deployed since early 2021 in a move critics say is an attempt to distract from human rights record”, so who are these critics? Names please? The reality is a lot easier to set in. This is not about some wash, this is about the beginning of the end for media players all over the globe. The setting al almost 2000 years old and was given to us by Decimus Junius Juvenalis who phrased ‘panem et circenses’. He accused his world of “to generate public approval, not by excellence in public service or public policy, but by diversion, distraction, or by satisfying the most immediate or base requirements of a populace, by offering a palliative: for example food (bread) or entertainment (circuses).” The west (especially America) took this to heart and for decades it worked for them. We all got the NFL, NBA, NHL and so on. The problem becomes when the well dries up, when the coffers are empty. This was an event that people like Gaius Caesar Augustus Germanicus (aka Caligula) faced and now the west does too. That being said, as I stated a few times over, Saudi Arabia is about to become the largest 5G hub in history, connecting Africa, Asia and Europe via Saudi Arabia (STC), as such the new (soon to become released) news channel makes sense. In addition to that they need to create waves of watchers and as these high end sports will all set the focus to Saudi Arabia. Football, Formula One, eSports, Golf and that list keeps on growing. Soon all eyes will be on the STC and the MBC Group soon enough and that matters, the MBC group started in 1991 and in 31 years they grew and they are about to become the biggest player of them all. I saw part of this and adjusted my IP accordingly (to some degree). And as they go live, the advertisers will walk away from the BS channels we watched for decades. Advertisers will go where the money is and that has nothing to do with sportwashing. That is the business of the day. As such I have no idea where people like Ruth Michaelson get their ideas but they are massively flawed. Then she starts to add fictive settings based on the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, which is interesting (apart from that essay joke by the UN), no one ever presented clear and defining evidence on that part. It is my speculation that some people accepted some form of guilt after the immense bashing by the media and political players (I will exempt the Washington Post from this). It all starts to take shape and tis shape took some time to gather as this was a long play and the media is finally starting to figure out what I saw well over a year ago. These media people are about to become obsolete. All these ads in the UK and US, now pushing female football. This is simple, as I see it the other gender will be broadcasted all over the channels that the MBC group has and once they start owning stations in Europe the final part of this strategy becomes clear and just like Google buying YouTube, the MBC group will gather billions in advertisement revenue within the span of a year making Fox News close to obsolete, moreover over 300 sports channels will at some point show the MBC group logo and that is when the coins really start flowing into the coffers of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Losers like Microsoft and peers like Amazon, Apple, Google and Meta will bend over backwards to connect in some partnership to the MBC group. As such the evidence is out there in all kinds of messages and news casts. You’ll have to dig, because the western press has been drowning whatever news came from the KSA, but it is out there, as such I wonder who came up with the lame term ‘Whitewashing’ more important, as the media does close to nothing to the actions in places like Iran, do you think that Saudi Arabia needs to spend billions to hide whatever Human Rights issue is in play in Saudi Arabia? What a farce that presumption is. Saudi Arabia and other Islamic nations rule and act according to the Quran, the rules of Islam and they are just a few steps away from being the most dominant religion on the planet. Perhaps doing something about catholic paedophiles well over a decade ago was the best course, but feel free to disagree on that one. And there is a second upside, the NHL will prosper as other nations add their visibility to the global population, not in the least by the UAE Ice Sports Federation and its 50 members. Did you know that the Ice Sports Federation in the UAE was that big? What else are you not ware of and what is being kept out of western news? So which Cricket fan saw any matches on TV that were Pakistani or Indian based? Consider all the sports we will be getting soon and wonder why the others did not give us that, kept it from us. Why?  It boils down to money and short earned cash at that, when you play the long game the earning are different and the earnings could be long term. So consider all the sports that the US and EU have to bid for, all whilst they have no money left, only on paper, but that does not pay the invoice, especially when the banks fold. 

Enjoy the day, one day left to the day before the weekend that comes.

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Deleting free

It is a setting I came across today. It all started innocently enough. I came across a image that had been filtered. Someone had used a Barbie filter on her own selfie and the result was pretty neat. As such I searched for the ‘Barbie Filter’ and a few came up. This was the moment the ground was taken from under me. To see this we need to take a look.

Yes, you get it for free AFTER you logged in, after you handed over your email address. There is even a mention of how to get free credits. Free? Not really.

There were a few free options down the track, but this player (and a few like them) were on top of the list, they made it so. They wanted the word free to lure them in. That is no free, there is for the most no free anywhere. We might keep the word in any dictionary to show its ironical existence in this day and age. 

You see, to see what the marketed greed driven are overlooking is the longer scope of the matter. For this I introduce you to me (see below).

When the movie was made, they added it to their website. Anyone could upload their photo and you would be translated into a Charlie Brown version of you. 

There was no email, no capturing. It was a simple setting and it helped push the movie forward. In the case of the Barbie connected wannabe’s they all want something, that is not free. So, as far as I can tell, I have had this image in use in one way or another for almost a decade, that is something that was really free. I also have a Mass Effect image with me, but that was a launch party event. That doesn’t really count. What matters is that this Barbie issue is becoming a global rage and good for them (Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, Greta Gerwig, Mattel and Warner Brothers) We are getting new terms like Barbenheimer and everyone is having a great time. There is even an image of a pink President Biden (in Ken Style) and this is how a brand just propagates. 

This is the moment, not to rake in the cash (other than the tinseltown proceeds) this is to ride the wave of visibility, global visibility no less. But no, some want to cash in. They will say things like ‘We worked hard’ and BS like that, but what they forgot is that with the visibility you grow your label on a global stage, as such you get to create presence like (not a real link) ‘Image created at http://www.WB.com/Barbie’ or ‘created with the filter by MyBrand.com‘ The last part would be totally acceptable, somewhere on the lower lines. That is branding and the fact that I have had my Charlie Brown version for almost a decade is evidence that this works. 

But to the greed driven that is blasphemy. So you decide which track needs to be taken, for me, the setting to trust anyone with my email is a short stop from insanity, especially in this day and age. I see this day as a bit of a disappointment, even the real free versions were lessened by the impact of the greed driven players, but that is life at present. So whilst we consider what next, we might consider deleting the word free from our dictionary and understanding, that is how things evolve and not for the better.

Enjoy Monday.

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Blue laundry leaking

It happens, sometimes the colours get into the other colours and your white stuff is no longer white. I had my issues with myself, overlooking a red sock with my white shirts and behold, I was suddenly the owner of pink shirts. This is a problem as it is not fashionable pink, but a melee of pink shades in white shirts. The fashion looks a righteous mess. This is something we all dread, and in IT land it is not different, especially when the detergent is Microsoft.

It all started (at https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/stolen-microsoft-key-offered-widespread-access-to-microsoft-cloud-services/) with ‘Stolen Microsoft key offered widespread access to Microsoft cloud services’ where we are given “Redmond revealed on July 12th that the attackers had breached the Exchange Online and Azure Active Directory (AD) accounts of around two dozen organisations. This was achieved by exploiting a now-patched zero-day validation issue in the GetAccessTokenForResourceAPI, allowing them to forge signed access tokens and impersonate accounts within the targeted organisations.” I was at first cautious. There are intense haters of Microsoft and they do not throw around any kind of evidence, as such I wondered how far this went and behold, ITWire gives us (at https://itwire.com/security/danger-from-microsoft-azure-breach-still-remains,-warns-wiz-researcher.html) ‘Danger from Microsoft Azure breach still remains, warns Wiz researcher’ and here we are given “New York-based cloud security firm Wiz has warned companies and organisations affected by the recent Microsoft Azure breach that the impact of the intrusion may be much wider than reported, and could affect applications beyond those claimed by Microsoft to be impacted.” In addition we are given “Our researchers concluded that the compromised MSA key could have allowed the threat actor to forge access tokens for multiple types of Azure Active Directory applications, including every application that supports personal account authentication, such as SharePoint, Teams, OneDrive, customers’ applications that support the ‘login with Microsoft’ functionality, and multi-tenant applications in certain conditions”, I see this as an issue. The larger scope is not merely the cloud. That thing has all kinds of security issues. No, the small ‘hidden’ text becomes “The breach came to light on 13 July, with the email account of US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo cited as one of the more prominent accounts to have been breached” it came to light as a ‘prominent’ account was breached. So how long was this mess there? There is a reason I do not trust Microsoft and as such I do not want them anywhere near the 50 million accounts that I see coming, or the ones that follow, which will be a massive amount of accounts. Even more I reckon as I concluded a new stage in Dubai. I saw the opportunity when I investigated the Dubai Mall, the Mall of the Emirates, the Dubai Marina Mall and the Battuta Mall. There were a few more, but the setting of malls this big all in one city was something I never considered and it gave me more ideas, more options and that made me consider the interactions of my Augmented Reality IP with two other IP’s. Actually four, but that is a story for another day. What is absolutely clear is that I do not want Microsoft anywhere near it. Not with the mess they have, so either Amazon wakes up, or Tencent technologies gets it all. I never discontinued my interest in Google, but they basically took themselves of the field. No idea where Apple is, but that is not my problem at present. You see, the larger stage is the security risk that Microsoft is and it is also seen with “The news agency said Adair’s client had not forked out what Microsoft demands for its premium security suite, and hence detailed forensic data was unavailable.” Really? They are all about the forking out, all whilst their solution is like a 45 year old prostitute claiming to be a virgin? I would suggest that forking out is the least of their problems. That is even beyond the fact that the transgressions are requiring ‘detailed forensic data’ all whilst the transgressions are what the first article is implying “by exploiting a now-patched zero-day validation issue”, all whilst IT Wire implies that the damage is well beyond the ‘pretended’ scope and as such might (a speculation from my side) not be patched, not to the degree it needed to be. And anyone wonders why I do not trust Microsoft with my IP? They haven’t been able to close their barn doors, at least since 2019, optionally long before that. So your data (and my IP) would have been at risk for well over 4 years. We are also given “This isn’t a Microsoft-specific issue, if a signing key for Google, Facebook, Okta or any other major identity provider leaks, the implications are hard to comprehend. Our industry — and especially cloud service providers — must commit to a greater level of security and transparency concerning how they protect critical keys such as this one, to prevent future incidents and limit their potential impact” This might be, but I have never seen these levels of transgressions on Google Cloud or Amazon AWS, but that is merely my point of view. Then we get an interesting side “while Microsoft had ensured that Azure Active Directory applications would not longer accept forged tokens as valid, by revoking the compromised keys, the danger from the breach still remained” well, it might be, it might not be. Microsoft stated that they had the most powerful console in the world and within 2 years that Nintendo launched the weakest nextgen console of them all, they surpassed all sales records Microsoft claimed to have had, so I am not holding my breath here. The number one question is ‘Why could Microsoft not differentiate between real tokens and forged tokens?’ That would have ben my first question, but I am not seeing that here. Possibly for very valid reasons, but the missing out is a case here. So whilst some stare at “setting up application-specific backdoors”, my issue is that with every application, the change of interaction and transgressions increase. It just does. For example (a bad and debatable one), if EVERY application has a zero day issue (pure speculation) we get with 3 applications a speculative 9 zero day problems. So what happens when the average corporation has Azure and 35 applications. This implies that this customer has 42,875 risk factors. Yes, it is a speculation, yet the ITWire article gives us this with “The full impact of this incident is much larger than we Initially understood it to be”, as well as “We must learn from it and improve”, a setting that sounds nice, but consider that Azure was launched 14 years ago, if you are still learning, you have a much larger problem. In December 2020 I wrote ‘Historic view versus reality’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/12/26/historic-view-versus-reality/) there I quotes the No Such Agency giving us “National Security Agency warns hackers are forging cloud authentication information”, as such the Microsoft claim “Microsoft had ensured that Azure Active Directory applications would not longer accept forged tokens as valid” as a hollow joke. The NSA made the statement 3 years ago, as such Microsoft should have put (buggy) solutions in place to stop forged keys, but it seems they never did. Another mess they made with their own hands. Don’t take my word on this, the NSA send out warnings in 2020. Warnings that Microsoft seemingly never took to heart. Still happy with your blue cloud? I reckon it is time for people to consider Amazon AWS, Apple iCloud, Google Cloud (GCP), Oracle Cloud or wherever you will be trying to keep your data safe, as I personally see it Microsoft is not that place and with that they are scuttling yet another (what I personally like to call) a spin system, just like a washing machine trying to tumble dry your data on servers where you do not have access to them. But that might be my short sighted feel on the matter.

Enjoy the day, Monday is now but a day away.

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Rage anonymously

Yup, we get that, although there is not really an anonymous part in this, it is me. Two things made me snap. The first one was a presentation. There was nothing wrong with the presentation, it was actually quite good and it should be regarded, but I will not mention it here (for obvious reasons). The second one is the one I am starting here. I am in favour of protesting, protesting is in the world I grew in an age old tradition. I get it, but I also regard the accountability part of any protest. Even in the army, I was in favour of the anti nuclear protests. In the Netherlands in 1981. That protest was the largest protest in Dutch history and drew in over 400,000 demonstrators, the largest in Dutch history. In addition they gathered in excess of 3.75 million signatures, close to 25% of the population in that time were against US nuclear missiles in the Netherlands. Never before did a group of people agree to that degree to anything like it.
As such I cannot oppose demonstrations. Yet it is different with ‘Just stop oil’, they went to far. They obstructed a car with a newborn trying to get to the hospital and at that point I snapped. If I was there, I would have shot at least one person in the head. I would not care about gender, both genders are equally worthless at that point. When you stop a newborn from reaching the hospital in time, optionally endangering that newborns life, you deserve to get shot in the head. I hope these people consider that, because there are a lot more angry people out there in the UK. If I had it my way, I would reroute 350K barrels of oil per day away from the UK to China (for example). I wonder what chaos that would reflect and as long as any demonstrator from ‘Just stop oil’ is still alive, that reroute would not be undone. I wonder how many of these people will suddenly realise the stupidity of their actions. I get why they are demonstrating and I get why it is done. Yet this is wrongly done and it is done in the most stupid of ways. The UK is depending on oil in many ways and when we reduce the allotment by 350K barrels a day these people will wake up fast and in not such a nice way. When they get hunted by the tradies losing their livelihood they will get a first rate education on the stupidity that they embraced. And when you consider that they endangered a new born child, the support they had will fall away quite quick. 

What?
The second part was a presentation. The presentation was good, really good, but it struck a chord with me in not such a nice way. You see, these presentations all look good, yet when they interfere  with the bonus and bottom dollar of any board of directors, the setting changes, it changes by a lot. 

So it started with:
Good Data design is purposeful
Good Data design is clear
Good Data design is balanced
Good Data design is inclusive

These were the first 4 slides of 12 excellent slides. Yet there is an issue with them and it is not on the designer, that person did his/her job. The problem is that this presentation goes somewhere, and that tends to be up the ladder. I am not giving you the other 8, because I will invade someone else’s IP too much (and I am not giving the whole slides, just the titles. But the next part will show you why it bothered me.

You see you can scream interaction and promotion of understanding all you like, but what is our understanding? The understanding of IT, its users or the understanding of the board of directors? They tend to be three different things. The promotion of inclusivity only goes to the degree that the bottom dollar is not impacted and simplicity is a whole other ball of wax. If it is (too) simple that board member is feeling the brunt of what comes next and they will oppose this and oppose what you want to achieve and that is before we get issues of legacy systems (where the current provider works with a board member wanting to stay relevant. I have been involved with fights of that nature going back to the mid 80’s. And the less said about inclusivity the better. These are all good things, but they tend to raise costs and the board members are all about the bottom dollar and that is an issue. I have had too many of these fight against wannabe’s to last me a lifetime, and the wannabe’s always get a yay-sayer making me look bad in the process. A setting many retired IT person can attest to and those who rolled over had a decent retirement, the rest had close to nothing, as such this struck a nerve with me. I hope that the presenter gets the laurel that he or she deserves, but they better be ready for a fight they never faced before. Especially when that board is filled with fakers. That was my view on the matter and these two items got to me. So my Saturday was all about controlling my anger and checking my sniperscope (I had not done that for years). So whomever wants to endanger a newborn better get ready to walk around with an added air conditioning system to the brain.

We all get angry at times, we all go overboard at times and in this case I am lucky. I am (lucky for them) 10,563.82 miles away from those stupid twats. But they will face people over there that also have had enough and they are close enough to rely on the cricket-bat to dish out the punishment. 

Well one more day until the weekend ends, I better make it count.

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The writing is on the floor

Yes, it is the case here, never mind what the walls say. I have made mention of this again and again. The US had a piss poor approach to their innovation lack. First they tried to make Huawei their bitch and accuse Huawei of all sorts of things, whilst setting a backstabbing approach to remove Huawei from revenue streams. They did this in the worst possible way and they did it without any corroborating evidence. Then we get the setting that the media is painting China as the big evil. Yet America is not held to any standards. This is an issue for me and for most people relying on evidence. As such the article ‘Xi Jinping meets Henry Kissinger as US seeks to defrost China ties’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-66106076) comes over as hollow. In this the BBC has its own share of issues here too. As such when we see ‘US needs Kissinger’s diplomatic wisdom’ I would state “How about some simple wisdom?” Today Al Jazeera gives us ‘Australia blocks acquisition of lithium mine by China-linked firm’. I am not commenting on the events because I know too little, yet it is again some event involving China. Now, there might be all kinds of circumstances that could show it to be a valid block, but the fact that this started in January implies that a block this late has other attached reasons too. The issue is that the media is adhering to the US needs to paint China negatively in many ways and there is only s much you can get away with. At present Huawei is rocking the telecom industry all over Asia, the Middle East and soon enough Africa and Europe too. That will increase and accelerate with the release of 5.5G years ahead of Nokia and others, as such China, Asia and the Middle East are about to get a huge advantage. I reckon that the United Arab Emirates are about to become a larger technology hub in the Middle East and this one will stretch wherever the STC (Saudi Telecommunication Company) reaches. I reckon that before the end of 2025 it will connect Asia, the Middle East, parts of Africa and southern Europe making it pretty much the largest telecom company around. That was what I tried to warn you all for, it opens up all kinds of doors and with the release of 5.5G, my IP now has a shining new setting. One that the US and EU cannot match. They do not have the IP, they have shown consistent cluelessness and even Google and Amazon could fall short here. So what do you think all that will cost these players in revenue? So when I see ‘US seeks to defrost China ties’ I merely laugh. This was a joke and a mistake that was years in the making, now that the events are coming to a close (as the Conversation gives us) with ‘China is playing the long game in the Pacific. Here’s why its efforts are beginning to pay off’ (at https://theconversation.com/china-is-playing-the-long-game-in-the-pacific-heres-why-its-efforts-are-beginning-to-pay-off-209960) where we are given “Other appointments suggest China is appointing higher-calibre diplomats to the region. These include Li Ming, the current ambassador to the Solomon Islands, and Xue Bing, the former ambassador to Papua New Guinea who now holds the challenging post of special envoy to the Horn of Africa. With experience in the region and good language skills, these diplomats have been more able to engage with Pacific communities than their predecessors, who largely focused on sending good news back to Beijing. More serious representatives suggest more serious intent.” A setting I never saw (because I was looking elsewhere) and when you add this all up it becomes a much larger issue (especially for America). There are unconfirmed rumours that Saudi Arabia will join BRICS in August. There is every chance that the UAE will either join at the same time or shortly after. Now with China and Saudi Arabia (STC) having a united telecom front with 5.5G years ahead of all the other players, the setting for global telecom will shine well before the end of 2023. I made mention that I had found something in the last two days and here it is. It is not merely what they are doing. Players like Amazon and Google have the option to create service centres in the UAE (Dubai or Abu Dhabi) most likely and ride that tidal wave, or whomever gets there first will have the option to take market share away from these two players. Huawei is ready to start there, but they cannot do it alone, the waves will be too high. Google is already there (I checked), but unless they get the infrastructure ready others will pass them by left and right and there is the option for billions. Whomever is there first will be able to set the score, not adhere to it and that setting will go from Shanghai in the east to Croatia in the west all whilst these networks will include China, Bangla Dash, Indonesia, India, Pakistan, UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, from there it all goes into Europe via TAWAL. A setting no telecom company has had to THAT degree and what do we get from Washington? ‘US seeks to defrost China ties’ I think it is a bit late or that and it is about to get worse, especially if the 5.5G is launched in Q4. Those ready to upgrade will show the rest what a massive lag in streaming technology looks like. It is like watching Wall Street people deal in stocks whilst having a system that is 3-4 milliseconds slower than the other system and it takes less than 50 trades to see a decent profit be reduced to a massive loss. I haven’t even taken the lack of labour force in the US at present, which makes their $42 billion overhaul plan an Edsel to say the least. All this was visible several days ago, but go right ahead, consider that China will defrost, they have been playing the long game and now that will turn into a near total victory. The setting I never clearly looked at was the pacific region, I saw the plans for Indonesia, but not the other parts and these are all about to come into focus. As I see it, by late 2024 Germany will chose solutions for their services and Huawei will have them, others do not. The moment that happens (I made mention of that before) France will adhere to the need of economic stability and that is where the EU either overturns the US directive, or be made (close to) obsolete. And all that happens whilst Tencent Technologies is about to launch a few products as well. My IP is in a different direction and I was (sort of) testing that premise beyond the Dubai Mall. I equally looked at the settings for the Mall of the Emirates, Nakheel Mall, tourist settings as well as the Real Estate setting which was a $20 billion market in the UAE (I did not initially know that), so I looked at my Canadian ‘solution’ to the UAE, and now we are vying for the big bucks (I am allowed to dream, am I not). Whatever YOU think, these elements are out in the open and some of them were out in the open since the first Covid lockdown (2020), so players like Amazon, Apple and Google had 3 years to wake up, as far as I can tell they never did.

So the writing was on the floor (the walls too) and these players were all watching the sky to see how their revenue streams were set up and doing. The media was full of it and with the shortage of people and pretty much dumping thousands of people, they had to look at the Middle East and see if these people would be willing to move to a new shore and that is where others will soon have a larger advantage. That I how I personally see it. 

You make your own conclusions, but take the time to go through all the sources, too many media is playing a catering game and they are not serving food. The day before the weekend is underway, enjoy it.

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