Category Archives: Military

In the beginning

Two issues came to light, the first one is about an American cop. The BBC gives us (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72ver6172do) where we see ‘A Bugatti car, a first lady and the fake stories aimed at Americans’. We are given “A network of Russia-based websites masquerading as local American newspapers is pumping out fake stories as part of an AI-powered operation that is increasingly targeting the US election, a BBC investigation can reveal.

A former Florida police officer who relocated to Moscow is one of the key figures behind it.” We knew this, it is nothing new. The Dutch company Trollrensics is actively hunting down trolls and illustrating all the fake news we see (well most of it anyways). This article brought a small art to light that requires actions by both Amazon, Google and Microsoft. You see the BBC gives us “But before the truth could even get its shoes on, the lie had gone viral. Influencers had already picked up the false story and spread it widely”. This is a dangerous setting. Influencers are all about the traffic, they mostly lack integrity and have no clue on the desire to gain followers and their desire to get their golden YouTube sign. 

It is time that the United States and the European Union start to pressure these tech firms to chastise these influencers. If they cannot give ample validation of how they got the evidence how they verified the authenticity they get the full brunt of the consequences. If they are found spreading fake news, their Google rating is diminished, their video’s are all downgraded. And their video’s are skipped in searches unless a person asks for this (former) influencer by name (at which point several people can find the seekers). It is a little crude but the Russians are becoming too much of a nuisance. Oh, and by the way if they follow through on the threat to bomb the Netherlands, I will put my nuclear deterrent (a solution to make a nuclear reactor meltdown) on every BBS in Chechnya. See how they like that condition. Russia made enough enemies, if they have to protect every nuclear reactor in Russia they will lose 15% of their deployable troops protecting buildings they never had to before. Actions are needed and no one is doing them, they are all concerned with the bottom line. You see spreading fake news and false information is not a freedom. In this day and age it is a duty of everyone to not spread fake news and misinformation. Now I understand that not everyone is able to distinguish fake news from real news. I usually seek two official sources (the Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera, Arab News, Washington Post, Boston Globe, LA Times) there are more but you get the gist. The complication is John Mark Dougan, an American ex-cop. Just questioning. Why would anyone in Florida relocate to Moscow? No matter how valid his reason is. As we are given “an AI-powered operation that is increasingly targeting the US election” we are given the notion that this is all about Trump (my speculation) and it goes from bad to worse. As such I need to do something. I am not a man of action (when you pass the 60 mark that happens) but I have a decent imagination to look outside of the box. Russia has 38 active nuclear reactors. They collectively have 200,000 people working there. Consider that the Russians would need to check them all, secure them all. That implies thousands of troops. Then they need to inspect all new arrivals. It will be a nightmare I reckon. In the mean time they face Chechnya and Pro Ukrainian Russian troops. Plenty to worry about and with the solution out in the open, the Russians get a new danger and optionally their other enemies come out of the woodwork. 

But that is another matter. For now we need to take care of the influencers. They are the first hurdle to stop traction of fake news. In this Amazon, Google and Microsoft could change the rating of anyone spreading fake news, Google especially. Put their ratings to minus 150 and the influencers seize to be a relenting problem. Remove these accounts and their flocks disperse. Now I am not sure if Google can do that. You know that any account holder of a Google/Youtube account has rights. Just changing this on the fly does not go over well. But Google can stop the fake news from spreading, they can also look at the followers of that influencer. But I get ahead of the issues. Something needs to be done and not enough (as far as I can tell) is being done. 

Enjoy the day.

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The unspoken call

There was a call in Reuters last week. I had seen it, however I was dealing with the intelligence I was able to lay my hands on. It seems like a simple exercise but it is not. The article (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-experts-urge-all-countries-recognise-palestinian-statehood-2024-06-03/) gives us ‘UN experts urge all countries to recognise Palestinian statehood’, it seems so simple. Yet it is more complex than you think. You see that setting might be acceptable AFTER Hamas has been eradicated and the west knows this. You see Hamas is a one trick pony, it resorts to violence only ad at present it does so through Iranian guidance. If Palestinian statehood is awarded whilst Hamas is still in charge, all bet are off. The west knows this and they don’t like the centrepiece of Arabian stability. There is Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). That one trick pony (Hamas) will come with its new rule. A bigger seat at the Arabian table. When they do not get it Saudi Projects will suffer. The Line, Oxagon, Trojena, Sindalah, Red Sea International Airport, Mukaab, Qiddiya and a few more will subtly be suffering set backs, optional outright sabotage. That would cost Saudi Arabia billions. In addition UAE locations like Dubai and Abu Dhabi will be hit. It will not be some case of speculation, Iran does not like the path Arabia is on. It does not allow any path where they are an inferior setting. And they now have their claws in Hamas and Houthi forces. 

As such Hamas needs to be eradicated. It is simplest if Israel does it. It could do with the win and Saudi hands will remain clean. When Saudi Arabia and the UAE are forced to act the result will be destabilisation for years to come. All what Saudi Arabia had achieved will be for naught. The UAE will likely get a hit on tourism and travel, but there too the impact will be felt. The west likes this. They are trying to rally against China and the Arabian players are part of Brics now, catering options for China. All options are largely lost to the west. So they are now calling to include Palestine into everything. A call that is too rash for words. 

We can think all we can on Palestine, but they let Hamas in and did not do anything about Hamas for 2 decades. Hamas is under their buildings, part of their infrastructure and they have grown the next generation of Palestines to be terrorists too. The west did little to nothing, they figured that Israel would deal with that problem. Now that Israel is, the anti semitic rhetoric is taking global proportions. And the media was quiet for too long on the 120 hostages and they trivialised matters. So now that the gloves come off there will be another setting. If Israel succeeds in eradicating Hamas, statehood for Palestine could follow, yet with a few clauses. Any new Hamas interference will result in economic sanctions. In support of this other economic means will be required. Also Egypt will have to show it hands and allow Palestinians through. You know, I do not think this will happen. Egypt had identified the threat that Hamas and Palestine sets. Why do you think that they put a wall there? No one is questioning that part. It is all about Israel. 

If Israel does not succeed and statehood is awarded to Palestine, Saudi and UAE intelligence will have to beef up operations. Saudi will have a lot more riding on this and whilst there are upsides for Saudi Arabia, the risks are a lot higher. In the mean time Hamas leadership is still comfortable in Qatar and Iran has lines out to them. I wonder what will come to a close first. Israeli patience, of Saudi patience after statehood is awarded. 

In the end part of this is speculation, but the premise is sound and when Iran flexes its financial muscles towards Palestine, Saudi interests in Saudi Arabia will come under pressure, and it will resolved by giving a bigger seat to Hamas, the Iranian tool. A setting that we must avoid, the west especially. The west might no longer be a global strong power, but when chaos hit the Arabian peninsula, only the greed driven parties will see it as a plus point. The rest will suffer the consequences. And in this the media will shrug it off saying they merely reported on it. But the media will be every bit as guilty as anyone else. Even more so as they decided to not inform the public and filter events to what their stakeholders share holders and advertisers required. But the media will not report on that. I wonder why. 

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Where to spend it?

I saw a report on the CNN site a few days ago (at https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/23/politics/senators-trudeau-letter-defense-spending/index.html) Now, I get it, every nation needs to get their defence correctly. However with the message ‘US senators write to Canada’s Trudeau asking him to meet 2% GDP defense spending commitment’ and the 23 senators may have a point, we all have to carry our weight. But I believe that the US is expecting Canada to hand that money to south of the border. I am not on that horse. I think that Canada, if spending anything that is essential will turn to the UK and Australia first for their needs. The question isn’t merely what not had been bought. They question becomes “What needed to be bought?” I don’t have those answers. And Canada does not stand alone. In all this Spain, Turkey and the Netherlands are on the same horse and the pie of revenue is dwindling down, it means that there are more hungry mouths to feed. This means that there are options is both the Commonwealth and the EU. I wonder when these 23 senators start realising that their defense revenue might be in jeopardy. In this age of economic stress, just handing it over to the US might not be the wise choice. If possible Canada should consider the UK for initial choices. The US sets up the 2% clause hoping that it will come to them, but that is not a given. No matter how this works out. These nations need to set a stronger manifest on what is needed and on what is required. Now, this is hard because defense elements aren’t really public information, but the fact that 23 senators give a letter with the underlying “they believe Canada — unlike other nations — does not appear to have a plan in place to hit the target, a congressional aide explained.” I have to ask what evidence is there? And the fact that a US congressional aide comes forth with this is secondary. So how did this get ‘leaked’ to CNN? Do Canadians know how their defense systems fare? Just a few questions that come to mind and I wonder what plans are set to those F-35 Canada ordered earlier. 

It is not enough to consider that 2% needs to be spend, the question becomes where to spend it and on what.

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Exit towards destabilisation

That is the setting that we see coming a mile away, or at least I am and that is how I see it. Today I am given ‘China condemns US veto of call for immediate ceasefire at UN’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68355436) and I have a problem with this. You see, the problem with the article is that we see “China has sharply criticised the US for vetoing a United Nations (UN) Security Council resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.” Yet, the issue is more complex. There can not now, or will there ever be peace as long as Hamas exists. Hamas will never stop. Its commanders are safely in Qatar, a nation that has given Hamas almost $2,000,000,000 in financial support. Then there is Iran and they both are vying for destabilisation in the Arabian peninsula. It is a very personal view, but I believe that is the game that is being played with Hamas as puppets, right next to the Houthi forces. The problem is that we are given disinformation from nearly every side and that is hampering insight and optional progress. 

As I see it the two powers in the Middle East are the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This is not what either Qatar or Iran like. They want a much bigger seat at the table and as such there is an essential need to rely on Hamas and Houthi forces and in this Iran seems the only actor, but I am not convinced. There is no clear intelligence what Qatar is doing beside sheltering the top of Hamas, which is as far as I can tell not a crime, not even in the Arabian peninsula nations. As I stated a personal view is that it is much better that Israel deals with Hamas. You see when BRICS evolves and the table setting is clear Iran will not be happy. They want more and they will push Hamas (and others) to get a larger seat at the table of plenty and Hamas being the one trick pony they are will strike out at the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia first striking their projects. Lets be clear, I have no intelligence available that this will happen, but knowing what I do know. A one trick pony will resort to what it knows and for Hamas this is violence, and violence alone. At that point the KSA will either strike back in full or they will have to concede. Do you think that the KSA will concede against a terrorist organisation? It would be all the information that the Houthis would require to attack again and again, and Iran would show its clean hands stating “We had no hand in this” all whilst supplying weapons to both. 

This is the stage of destabilisation that China needs and that is at this point the wrong stance to have. As such my message to China’s UN ambassador Zhang Jun who gives us “Only by extinguishing the flames of war in Gaza can we prevent the fires of hell from engulfing the entire region” is “take Hamas out of the region and talks can begin”. You see the stage of Palestinian territory’s Hamas-run health ministry is the larger problem. Anything Hamas run is tainted and that needs to stop. We can cry all we want for the Palestinians, yet Hamas is part of the problem and it started on October 7th 2023. Too many are ducking that part and have been since day one of the IDF assaults. That is before we consider the larger stage that we are given that the UNRWA is accused of directly supporting Hamas. The Washington Post gave us an image of a Hamas data centre UNDER the UNRWA building. The problem is that all sides are engaged with disinformation. I cannot deny that there are voices that Israel is doing the same that Palestine are doing in that regard. Israel has had well over a week to publish all evidence via all newspapers, they did not do that, that must be considered as well. 

My largest fear is that Hamas is pushed to attack any of the KSA projects and that will start new stages of destabilisation, not to say what they will do given a chance to Dubai and Abu Dhabi. I believe that the risk is too high for any Arabian peninsula nation. In all this Hamas must go, preferably today and permanently. 

I truly believe that this is the only way that there is a future for the Palestinians and to remain with a stable middle east. The problem is that I am stating this based on information available to me and there could be issues with that. Yet there is no denying that Hamas is a problem for everyone and the sooner all others realise this, the better we all will be.

Enjoy the week. I might be away for a few days.

 

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Is Israel failing?

That is a serious question. Hamas started all this and it was the straw that broke the camels back. The response was overwhelming. Well over 50% of Gaza has been reduced to rubble. But behind all this is a second tier that needs addressing. It is the UNRWA. We saw the accusations, we saw government pull out funds. I am OK with that, but now the media is starting another track. Australian ABC gives us that politician Penny Wong has questions. That is fair enough. 10 hours ago, the Guardian gives us ‘We don’t have all the facts on UNRWA allegations, Penny Wong admits’, now it is starting to become a problem. 

These are not alone. We see news from Channel 4, CBC and other sources making similar claims. Now, for the most the media has lost pretty much all credibility with me, so I have doubts. Yet in all this Israel has one option. To make this document public knowledge through all the sources it can trust. In the mean time, the new Arab (at https://www.newarab.com/news/no-evidence-israeli-unrwa-claims-six-page-dossier) gives us ‘Channel 4 says ‘no evidence’ for Israel’s UNRWA claims in six-page dossier’, so what gives? 

As I said, Israel’s (pretty much) only option left is to make that dossier public. If it is evidence (clear evidence mind you) the media becomes even less reliable than it already is. And lets not forget the UN Essay that newspapers used to smear the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. I poked holes in that one in under an hour. I am pretty sure I can do the same here if it does not hold up to scrutiny. 

So the question remains, is Israel failing here? The fact that the UN sacked a dozen or more workers implied that there was an issue. They weren’t set to zero hours, whilst an investigation was done, They were sacked immediately. This implied something was wrong, something was afoot. But now we get that this so called dossier does not hold evidence. It does not sound like Israel, but that accusation should be investigated as well. We are also given “inconsistencies have since appeared in Israel’s narrative, with documents shared with Sky News by Israel naming 6 rather than 12 staff as allegedly involved in the attacks. No explanation has been provided yet for this.” Now, I get that the other 6 might have intelligence value by not naming them, as such it might have been not documented (might being the operative word). Yet why mention these people at all? There are question marks and I am happy to hand the ace of spades to the media, but too many (some very respectable) are making similar mention. As such Israel needs to do something. Hamas is a blight on all and soon they will become a blight on the Muslim world. As such, should Israel deal with them now, it is fine by me. Later when they play these games to wring power away from Saudi Arabia and the UAE towards themselves and Iran it becomes a whole new mess of destabilisation and these dumb individuals are one trick ponies. They know no other way. Better to deal with them now before they create chaos in Saudi Arabia and the UAE afterwards, then These two will have to deal with them and that is a larger problem. Gaza is almost gone, Hamas will spread via Qatar all over the Arabian peninsula, it will flame all the nations there. It is my view, but I feel that I see this anticipated view correctly. So Israel needs to show the evidence to everyone, so that politicians and media cannot hide behind “I misread that? It was a simple miscommunication”, we need to get ahead of this and I reckon that this dossier once printed in the Times of Israel, Jerusalem Post and Haaretz will be picked up by everyone else. No matter what happens next, time is running short for Israel. They might have created waves, however the media is counter waving them with their own waves and the people are caught in the middle. NONE of them have produced the dossier or used clear quotes on what the dossier says, as such Israel has an option left and I reckon it might decide the fate of the UNRWA. 

I agree that it is my view, but I feel that I am seeing it all correctly. I will let you decide which view is the correct one. I am getting close to Saturday, in Vancouver Friday just started.

Enjoy the day.

 

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At the start of round two

I have stated more than one that America has a problem, it has a few, yet this was about defence spending and others aren’t spending it on American soil. I have been called crazy, cranky and delusional (no idea where the cranky part came from). Anyway, today I see that Saudi Arabia has a MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) with Leonardo defence.

From one source I am getting “The Ministry of Investment (MISA) of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI) of the Kingdom and Leonardo announced yesterday the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the intention to discuss, develop and evaluate a range of investment and collaboration opportunities in the defence and aerospace sector.” Some will say ‘so what?’ and until recently I would have agreed. I never heard of them, that doesn’t mean anything, but when you consider that the amount (unverified) is rumoured to be around a billion dollars, the case starts to give a different stage. China is taking a massive slice, Germany and the UK are on the pie hunting side and now Italy takes a billion too. This means that the pie that America one had, what is left is a lot smaller and a lot less impressive (for America that is). 

So the pie that was overwhelmingly America (Raytheon, Northrop and a few others) is now set to at least four additional players and even as we do not know the slice of China, there has been a few indicators (unverified) that it amounts to billions. As I personally see it, this is the result of biting the hand that feeds you and I never saw any clear evidence of what happened to that columnist no one cares about. That is the larger station. In addition to this, one source gives us ‘Fifteen Spanish companies compete for a slice of Saudi Arabia’s military pie’. There is no way to see how far they get and the defence market that is going on right now has 700 arms manufacturers trying to get a slice of $71,000,000,000. It is anyones guess how much is left after China gets its slice. All indicators give me that they are succeeding, in least in part, in securing that revenue and that is revenue that is lost to America. I feel certain that players like Raytheon will get a slice, but as far as I can tell it is rumoured to be the smallest slice they have gotten in a decade. 

And a lot of this could have been prevented, but feel free to think that my delusion. 

I wonder what news we will see next week when the trade fair is over. Yet I feel that a few European firms will be happy on what they were able to achieve. The largest setting That I expect at some point is that FN Herstal and/or the Herstal Group will place facilities in Saudi Arabia to see the setting that Saudi Arabia has advocated for close to 3 years to have 50% to be produced nationally. I reckon that FN Herstal/Herstal Group might reconsider that setting and move some of that to Saudi Arabia, not only for the slice of pie, but as part of Brics their dance-book will open up to several players. There is no data showing this to happen, it is pure speculation but that move makes sense to me. You see if FN Herstal doesn’t China and their AVIC, CASC, CETC, CASIC, CSSC, CSGC could get a lot more revenue. Norinco is unlikely to make that cut as it has been a really bad boy, but that could be my personal view on the matter.

Enjoy the day.

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van Speijk paradox

It is not a real paradox, although I would claim it was one. I was looking at the Russian losses and I was looking at the Forbes article (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/03/complete-stupidity-and-incompetence-as-two-russian-tanks-collide-while-attacking-near-donetsk/) when a few things came to me. There was the case of a police force known as the comedy capers.

You see, when tank commanders are so ‘untrained’ optionally short sighted that we are given ‘Two Russian Tanks Collide While Attacking Near Donetsk’. Some tankers would call this utter stupidity. I am not gifted with tank experience, as such I cannot say that. But the overall the light of Russian intelligence is dimming. To see this, we need to take a look at exhibit B.

There we see that the tanks have been diminished by almost 48%, APV’s are down 42% and artillery systems 46%. The 20th strongest army in the world did this to the 3rd strongest army in the world. I spoke earlier about the logistical farce that is the Russian armed forces and on that note we see several other failures.

What is the van Speijk paradox?
Van Speijk was a Dutch naval commander and on 5 February 1831 he decided that as he could not stop the Belgiums from taking his boat, he decided to fire into the powder room and boom went his boat in the harbour of Antwerp. According to some it was beautiful. He, his men and most of his enemies stopped living in that precise moment. The Russian paradox is there as these people should have known better. Their mistakes are dealt with in Tank operations 101. As such I wonder if it wasn’t intentional. Better be out of commission than blown up. But it is speculation, I have no evidence to support this other than the little I know from the 80’s. So are the soldiers that incompetent or just scared? It is an important questions and I have no evidence one way or the other. The one part I do know is that the Ukraine send 387,940 people for fitting into body bags to be shipped back to Russia. That short war is now 2 years, some short term war and it is getting worse. With the rearmament of the Ukrainian forces and the Russian forces losing more and more hardware (specifically tanks, APV’s, airplanes, helicopters and that list goes on. Russia is losing this and the Russian troops are demoralising more and more. 

It all sounds good for the Ukraine, but there is a snag that is starting to show up. We are now mere steps away from Russia becoming desperate and that tends to be a bad thing. No matter what they do there is most likely a European impact. That is what I feel is likely to happen. Scandinavia and Germany are the most likely targets, but I am speculating here. On the upside a war on two fronts will break Russia. Their logistics are shoddy, their trained staff is mostly dead and what gets conscripted will do so without decent equipment and spring is at least 8 weeks away. All that adds up to a riddle of bad news for the Russian forces and it leads to more demoralisation on the Russian front. 

You will consider my view to be wrong and that is fine. But you just look at the Russian losses numbers and all the news from Russia and see where that point of view leads. 

Have a nice day.

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Spy Games

The first thought I had. An excellent movie with Brad Pitt and Robert Redford, yet what would you think when I told you it is now the BBC who engages this scenario? In comes the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67945137) giving us ‘UAE has funded political assassinations in Yemen, BBC finds’. Finds? Found how? Is my initial feeling. I am not stating that the UAE is innocent, I cannot prove that, but can the BBC prove it? So here we get “Counter-terrorism training provided by American mercenaries to Emirati officers in Yemen has been used to train locals who can work under a lower profile – sparking a major uptick in political assassinations, a whistleblower told BBC Arabic Investigations.” So what mercenaries? Not stating that this wasn’t happening, but the question becomes who and to what degree. You see, the presumption linked to “sparking a major uptick in political assassinations” is nothing more than speculation and who is that whistleblower? This first stage has two speculations absent of evidence and all this is linked to American mercenaries? Not the best or most credible source. Wouldn’t you agree? The best we get is that mercenaries possibly trained Emirati officers in counter intelligence. That is quite the leap towards assassination. As I personally see, the better hit is done by the three drivers. Separation, Isolation and Assassination. Yet we can all agree that this isn’t always possible, yet Yemen has a better stage. Get a Houthi rifle (sniper rifle with silencer is best), pay a few kids to be ready to paint ‘traitor’ slogans on the targets house and in the early evening blow his head of and at that very precise moment get those kids to paint the slogans with the reward of cash and each a bag full of food for the family. Not much required for that, was it? 

Then we are given “The BBC has also found that despite the American mercenaries’ stated aim to eliminate the jihadist groups al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) in southern Yemen, in fact the UAE has gone on to recruit former al-Qaeda members for a security force it has created on the ground in Yemen to fight the Houthi rebel movement and other armed factions” in this, where is the evidence that “the UAE has gone on to recruit former al-Qaeda members”, what evidence is there? The press has very little credibility left. As I personally see it, at best, the UAE has a list of Houthi terrorists and spread a list around with ‘There people are wanted dead or alive’, the fact that alleged members of Al-Qaeda see that as a way to make money is beside the point. You see, what evidence is there to state that former members of any organisation are now part of a UAE security force? You see the issue is evidence and we aren’t seeing any. 

This goes on with “The killing spree in Yemen – more than 100 assassinations in a three-year period – is just one element of an ongoing bitter internecine conflict pitting several international powers against each other in the Middle East’s poorest country.” Now consider that the UN gives us “Over 150,000 people have been killed in Yemen, as well as estimates of more than 227,000 dead as a result of an ongoing famine and lack of healthcare facilities due to the war.” This implies that they are dealing with almost 380K kills from various reasons. So where are these 100+ assassinations? Where is the data? Where are the names? We don’t get any and in the first example I gave you, how can you see or prove that there was an assassination and not an execution by who gives a darn? We cannot get the west the acknowledge the Iran backed Houthis attacking Saudi civilian targets with drones and now they have a case of 100+ assassinations? I have some serious doubts here.

Then we see links to two other sources the BBC iPlayer (UK Only) that is not evidence, it is merely a BBC recruiting drive covered in a chocolaty spy story. Then we get more emotions and “Leaked drone footage of the first assassination mission gave me a starting point from which to investigate these mysterious killings. It was dated December 2015 and was traced to members of a private US security company called Spear Operations Group”, so who leaked the drone footage? Has the drone footage been verified as authentic? And suddenly out of the shrubberies comes the Spear Operations Group, so who are they? Apparently a Delaware outfit. And the source gives us a meeting in London 2020. Not dripping in any level of evidence. The other scenario is that a former Navy seal told a BBC person a spy story and he got paid for this. There is no verification on ANY level. There is a photo (anyones guess if that is a real person) with “He refused to talk about anyone who was on the “kill list” provided to Spear by the UAE – other than the target of their first mission: Ansaf Mayo, a Yemeni MP who is the leader of Islah in the southern port city of Aden”, so we will not get any facts, other then the mention that Ansaf Mayo was a target. All the news started spreading these tales 8 hours ago. In a few cases a few hours before the BBC told their story. I have some serious doubts. So who was Ansaf Mayo? The BBC article gives us nothing apart from the fact that he was an MP, so why was he killed? What evidence is there that he was assassinated? What evidence is there that who did that to this person? The list of doubts go up and it all reflects on a simple Spy game story, nowhere near good enough to be the stamped with ‘Approved by John le Carré’. Last we get to ‘investigators from the human rights group Reprieve’ with the text “They investigated 160 killings carried out in Yemen between 2015 and 2018. They said the majority happened from 2016 and only 23 of the 160 people killed had links to terrorism”, so where is their top line data? Consider that that areas had a rather large slice of 380K deaths (this list is a subset of that number) and a group with little to no visibility for the longest of time has any data on 160 people and only 23 had links to terrorism? More questions, especially as too many parties (including the UN) have been silent on Houthi terrorism, they blatantly kept silent to smear the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and this has been going on for years. The list goes on and on and this is the latest approach, now against the UAE. So what gives? The west angry that the UAE joined BRICS? They angry that the UAE is giving too much options to China? Your guess is as good as mine. I have no idea. I am merely questioning the validity of what the BBC is claiming here. I have my own version of these events, which I will not state, because it is pure speculation, I have no facts to support my version and I think that I have that in common with the BBC, we did not get to see any real evidence. Consider that if any of these sources were Iranian, or Iranian sympathisers the entire article collapses like a house of cards. 

Consider that as you start this Tuesday and I am about to enter Wednesday. A simple spy game story that isn’t worthy to sit on any shelf next to spy story masters like Le Carre, Ignatius, Herron, Greene or Deighton. It was a simple setting and I am rejecting what the BBC is telling us on the simple stage of missing evidence, missing verification and missing top line data in a stage where over 380,000 people were killed, finding 650 people (including children) that were assumed to be assassinated is extremely easy, the evidence was everything here and the BBC didn’t give us any.

Have fun today and that red dot on your chest? Pure imagination.

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First the giggles, then the howls

Yup, it all started late last night when I was alerted to an article (at https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2024/01/how-china-winning-middle-east/393483/) where we see ‘How China is winning the Middle East’. It is here that we are given “China is working to present itself as a responsible alternative to the U.S. in the Middle East, just as many are questioning Washington’s long-term commitment to the region”, the article was originally from January 19th 2024. Now consider that on September 9th 2021 I wrote ‘Lemon of the Century’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/09/09/lemon-of-the-century/), so I mentioned that danger over 2 years ago and it started happening a year later (alas, not my involvement) I initially wrote “I made a case to sell (as a corporate individual) to sell the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia either the British BAE Typhoon, or the somewhat better match the Chinese Chengdu J-20. Now, this is not on principles, but the US making Saudi embargo after embargo, all whilst it is mere puppet play and there was no direct need to stop the sales, especially as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was under direct attack by Houthi forces directly sponsored from Iran and the people were eager to ignore that fact. So there I was taking a stab at a 3.75% sales commission, and in light of a $11,000,000,000 sales ticket could bank me $412,500,000 over a few years. Now, I know, am I greed driven? Nope! But I am not walking away from such a massive mealticket!” As such it took defense one well over two years to see the dangers I saw clearly coming then. How laughable is that? What are these American three letter organisations doing? This wasn’t a surprise, this was clearly in view. 

So now we see “China’s narrative in this effort is one of not just opportunity for Middle Eastern states, but constant subtle or overt comparison between U.S. and Chinese goals in the region.” Say what? This was in clear view and I made several mentions in the last two years alone. So whilst you giggle on that consider that I am now calling the match Me (myself and I) versus DARPA a win with the final score being 6-0. I just realised that around three years ago I designed a stealth solution to sink the Iranian fleet (cost around $750K per vessel) yet I suddenly remembered that solution (I keep on designing other stuff) and the principles of Archimedes apply globally, as such they should have no problem with Russian vessels either. Not bad for a person that some see as a loser (well they do), but in the end it is creativity that wins innovation, it wins IP on a much larger scale and in support of that it could win a war too. If you doubt that, consider that “the basic idea of radar had its origins in the classical experiments on electromagnetic radiation conducted by German physicist Heinrich Hertz during the late 1880s.” So the Germans did not see the applications and they could have had an entire war advantage half a century long. In the end it was Watson Watt, Wilkins, and Bowen that turned it into something functional and that gave them the edge somewhere between 1930 and 1940. The application of my solutions are reimagined solutions of something that was out in the field. OK, my idea to melt down nuclear reactors came from a snow globe, so that is one that is all mine. 

When you consider that and the fact that I am calling a 6 point sore on DARPA you might howl with laughter and that is fine. But consider that I kept a lot on my blog. There is a timeline and DARPA has nothing to put against that and now we see that Defense One makes mention of a ‘danger’ all whilst I made clear mention of that well over two years ago. That is what it means to be asleep at the wheel. And I am not innocent of that either. You see I made mention of an idea some time ago and I just realised that it could be applied to the series Engonos (season 2 or 3) but I forgot about the idea (another reason to keep a blog). Now as it resurfaced in my mind I also realise that as I am concentrating on another script (How to assassinate a politician for Al Saudiya) that I am new to that. As such all writers (not just me) seem to think in active terms. There are four parts in any script (no technical reference), they are active, reactive and both can be endotherm or exotherm. Implying that from within or from outside sources. That was the part that as a storywriter you take notice on, but in writing a script that setting goes different. As such I suddenly remembered Ate, daughter of Eris and suddenly other ideas come flowing in, OK, some based on ideas my mind had created, but I never considered it as the entire setting of Engonos was not on my mind. That came well over a year later. 

You might wonder what one has to do with the other. Well, creativity goes in several directions and it was creativity in data that gave me the view of China becoming a much larger provider of Middle Eastern defence structures. It seems that Defense One only caught on a week ago. Now, that doesn’t make me ‘more’ correct, but when you see the settings how it was THEN, most people with BI insights would get similar conclusions. I did my ships engineering in the 70’s. Those principles gave me the idea for the stealth solution I designed decades later. Education matters, it might not matter now, but it allows the creative mind to see additional solutions, solutions that do not even exist when the thoughts were created. That is true innovation and that leads to larger advantages in any field. That is what some fat cats forgot about and as the stations are brought to bear they will all cry that it was unfair, but the reality was that they slept on. Only 20 hours ago the Business Standard treated us to ‘The online ad cookie is crumbling as Google Chrome secures privacy’ whilst another source gives us “Advertisers aren’t willing to pay as much for random internet users, so every time the page loads for a cookie-less Chrome user, it’s bringing in less money than it might have before.” The problem with these trains of thoughts was that I saw the announcement AT Google well before the first Covid shutdown, so it has been a while, so these people never prepared. How silly is that? Howlingly laughing silly. And that is where we see the stage. We giggle on some news, we howl at news and clams and we lose our shit laughing when we see that the non prepared mind should have known better and they all connect. Because change forces us to become creative, in two cases that wasn’t done. So whilst some may sneer and laugh at my claims, I put my claims out in the open on a blog and I did it 2 years earlier. The snow globe solution is there too, not sure how much I put online on the stealth vessel sinking solution (oh, SVSS sounds cool) but there you have it, we cannot anticipate everything. But I do like the idea that my idea could be applied to Russian vessels as well, as such, DARPA eat your heart out.

Have a lovely Monday. Tuesday started just now here.

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A 28 month delay

Yes, that is how I see it and it all started by a story in the Naval News (at https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/01/red-sea-crisis-houthis-demonstrate-increased-capability-coalition-demonstrates-increased-presence/) they were not alone, but there I saw a quote that set me in motion. The quote that set it off was “The introduction of a one-way attack USV is of concern”, you see that was an incorrect statement. I made clear reference of this in ‘The Iranian play’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/08/30/the-iranian-play/) there I wrote “Yemen has no infrastructure for this, Iran is the only player willing to supply Houthi forces and that is the problem” I wrote this 28 months ago and in 28 months the Houthi forces never gained the ability to do so, they never had the option or (at that time) trained staff to do anything we saw. The west and others sat on their asses all whilst the problem evolved and ONLY now, now that the fat cats are losing margins in the red sea, NOW we see action. So how stupid was that to begin with?

Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/10/us-uk-forces-shoot-down-21-drones-and-missiles-fired-by-houthis) gives us “No injuries or damage reported in what the US military said was the 26th attack by the Yemen-based group since November 19” as I personally see it, this is pushed by others, happy to use Houthi forces as cannon fodder, but the west remains ignorant and I personally believe it is an intentional form of ignorance. 

Who did anything to stop these drones from getting there in the first place? I can’t have been the only one seeing this 28 months ago? So who was drowning the proper investigations? Who was stopping the media from asking the right questions? Perhaps it was all for the digital dollar. I doubt it, I personally believe this was another setting towards destabilisation of the middle east. It is a personal view and I might be wrong, but ask yourself. Now we see what was clear that many months ago? Are the red sea margins that important to the west? Are margins all they care about or is all that only possible as the middle east stays destabilised? You tell me, I am honestly clueless on what the answer is. Yet when you consider how long these Houthi forces are receiving support in hardware and training all whilst the west has been unable to stop them? 

Now consider three of the least capable parties in all this CIA, MI-6 and DGSE and no one saw this? I will let you ponder all this as the news comes in. Yet consider The Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/10/britain-warns-severe-consequences-houthi-attack-red-sea-repelled) giving us “The Houthis, once seen as a minor localised military force, say the attacks are intended to force Israel to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza” all whilst I gave the lowdown 28 months ago and you tell me, who is doing a number of whom? 

Enjoy the moment when you are merely one day away from Friday.

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