Tag Archives: Aramco

May 28, 2025 · 02:15

The call for investors

That is at present the larger setting, everyone wants investors and they all tend to promise the calf with golden horns. As I see it, investing in gold mining, Oil mining and a few others are near dead certain return on investments. The larger group that will seemingly want to invest in AI, the new hype word. Still, considering that Builder.ai went from a billion plus to zilch is a nice example what  Microsoft backed solutions tend to give. You see, the larger picture that everyone is ignoring is that it was baked by Microsoft. Now, this might be OK, because Microsoft is a tech company. But consider that Builder.ai (previous known as Engineer.ai) was supposed to be all ‘good’, yet the media now reports ‘Builder.ai Collapsed After Finding Sales ‘Inflated By 300 Percent’’ This leads me to believe that there was  larger problem with this DML/LLM solution. Another source gives us ‘Builder.ai’s Collapse Exposes Deceptive AI Claims, Shocking Major Investors’ and another source gives us ‘Builder.ai collapse exposes dangers of ‘FOMO investing’ in AI’ yet that is nothing compared to what I said on November 16th 2024 in ‘Is it a public service’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/11/16/is-it-a-public-service/) where I stated ““a US strategy to prevent a Chinese military tech grab in the Gulf region” and it is my insight that this is a clicking clock. One tick, one tock leading to one mishap and Microsoft pretty much gives the store to China. And with that Aramco laughingly watches from the sidelines. There is no if in question. This becomes a mere shifting timeline and with every day that timeline becomes a lot more worrying.” With the added “But several sources state “There are several reasons why General AI is not yet a reality. However, there are various theories as to what why: The required processing power doesn’t exist yet. As soon as we have more powerful machines (or quantum computing), our current algorithms will help us create a General AI” or to some extent. Marketing the spin of AI does not make it so.” You see, the entire DML/LLM is not AI, as we can see from the builder.ai setting (a little presumptuous) of me, but the setting that we get inflated sales and then the Register ended their article with “The fact that it wasn’t able to convince enough customers to pay it enough money to stay solvent should give pause to those who see generative AI as a replacement for junior developers. As the experience of the unfortunate Microsoft staffers having to deal with the GitHub Copilot Agent shows, the technology still has some way to go. One day it might surpass a mediocre intern able to work a search engine, but that day is not today.” Is perhaps merely part of the problem the “the technology still has some way to go” is astute and to the point, but it is not the larger problem. It reminded me of the old market research setting, take a bucket of data and let MANOVA sort it out. The idea that a layman can sort it out is hilarious. I have met over the last half a century less than a dozen people who know that they were doing. These people are extremely rare. So whenever I hear a student tell me that they had a good solution with MANOVA, my eyes were tearing with howls of deriving laughter. And now we see a similar setting. But the larger setting is not merely the coded setting of DML and LLM. It is the stage where data is either not verified or verified in the most shallow of situations. And now consider that stage with a 500 billion solution. Data is everything there and verification is one part of that key, a key too many are seeing aside because it is not sexy enough. 

And now we get to the investors who are in “Fear Of Missing Out”, for them I have a consolation price. You see, RigZone gave me (at https://www.rigzone.com/news/adnoc_suppliers_pledge_817mm_investment_for_uae_manufacturing-27-may-2025-180646-article/) hours ago ‘ADNOC Suppliers Pledge $817MM Investment for UAE Manufacturing’, and as I see it Oil is a near certainty of achieving ROI, and as everyone is chasing the AI dream (which of course does not exist yet) those greedy hungry money people are looking away from the certainty piggybank (as I personally see it) and that kind of investment for manufacturing will bring products, sellable products and in the petrochemical industry that is like butter with the fish. A near certainty on investment. I prefer the expression ‘near certainty’ as there is always some risk, yet as I see it, ARAMCO and ADNOC are setting the bar of achievement high enough to get that done and as I see it “ADNOC said the facilities are situated throughout the Industrial City of Abu Dhabi (ICAD), Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (KEZAD), Dubai Industrial Park, Jebel Ali Free Zone (JAFZA), Sharjah Airport International Free Zone (SAIF Zone), and Umm Al Quwain. They will generate over 3,500 high-skilled jobs in the private sector and produce a diverse array of industrial goods such as pressure vessels, pipe coatings, and fasteners.” As such the only danger is that ADNOC will not be able to fill the positions and that is at present the easiest score to settle. 

So as we see the call for investors coming from the sound of a dozen bugles, remember that the old premise that getting the call from a setting that works beats the golden horns that some promise and the investors will need another setting (or so I figure). And in the end, the larger question is why builder.ai was backed inn the first place. Microsoft has a setting with OpenAI and as one source gives me “Microsoft and OpenAI have a significant partnership, where Microsoft is a major investor and supports OpenAI’s advancements, and OpenAI provides access to powerful language models through Microsoft’s Azure platform. This partnership enables Azure OpenAI Service, which provides access to OpenAI’s models for businesses, and it also includes a revenue-sharing agreement.” I cannot vouch for the source, but the idea is when this is going on, why go to it with builder.ai? And was builder.ai vetted? The entire setting is raising more questions than I normally would have (sellers have their own agenda and including Microsoft in this is ‘to them’ a normal setting) I do not oppose that, but when we see this interaction, I wonder how dangerous that Stargate will be and $500,000,000,000 ain’t hay. 

And going back to ADNOC we see “ADNOC’s commercial agreements under the In-Country Value (ICV) program have enabled facilities that allow businesses to benefit from diverse commercial opportunities, the company said. The ICV program aims to manufacture AED90 billion ($24.5 billion) worth of products locally in its procurement pipeline by 2030.” More impressive is the quote “ADNOC’s ICV program has contributed AED242 billion ($65.8 million) to the UAE economy and created 17,000 jobs for UAE nationals since 2018, according to the company.” You see, such a move makes sense as the UAE produces 3.22 million barrels per day, that has been achieved from 2024 onward and some say that they exceeded their quota (by how much is unknown to me). But that makes sense as an investment, the entire fictive AI setting does not and ever since the builder.ai setting it makes a lot less sense, if not for the simple reason that no one can clearly state where that billion plus went, oh and how many investments collapsed and who were those investors. Simple questions really.

Have a great day and try not to chase too many Edsel’s with your investment portfolio.

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May 21, 2025 · 19:28

What’s in a brand?

That is at times the question. Most of the world was to sink their claws into Saudi Arabia and we see all kinds of settings, some speculative, some going for the worst. The truth is that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is on the rise. Not merely because they are doing well (they really are), but the massive secondary reason is that they are a no-debt zone, just as the UAE is. So as we se that America is $46 trillion in debt, the EU has a debt of 14 trillion euro and Japan has a $9 trillion debt. Yet as the Telegraph a mere three hours ago gave us all ‘‘Worse than Greece’: The debt crisis threatening to blow up the global economy’ (at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/21/trump-sparked-debt-crisis-could-blow-up-global-economy/) the truth is (speculative) that I personal believe that America is in a worse state, even as the America administration is in denial and the media is massively avoiding reporting on it. I personally think that the network of Stake holders is con spiritually involved as well. As I see it (based on the work of Cathryn van Kessel) that ‘(Con)spirituality as a curriculum of immortality’ is set to “If we are listening to marketing hype, it seems that—with enough money—we can live longer, healthier lives. These products, however, are often no more than consumerist swindling steeped in pseudo-science and pseudo-spirituality. When viewed through the lens of terror management theory (TMT), mitigating the harms of (con)spiritual grifts is more than a problem of a lack of scientific literacy, anti-consumer education, and media literacy.” My personal view is set to the premise of “mitigating the harms of (con)spiritual grifts is more than a problem of a lack of scientific literacy, anti-consumer education, and media literacy, it is a (sort of) given setting that the stakeholders are dwindling the settings of parameters and changing the premise of given values, creating confusing hype settings” This is merely a personal view, but it seemingly fits the patterns we see, or tend to recognise.

So as such we see “Because the assets that the country holds are still far more valuable than the debts. All the land, mineral rights, water, etc.” and this shows the pressures to add Greenland and Canada to America, as such they wouldn’t be considered bankrupt. Another version is “Because debt payments are still manageable” but here time is running out, as such the Trump administration is playing the bully card on Canada and Greenland. But here the dance becomes a problem as Canada is not giving in as it is part of the Commonwealth. And that is why Keir Starmer as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is being catered to by the EU as the WU is in a similar predicament and the UK ‘re-joining’ the EU, the EU ends up with a credit card that gets renewed value. But the larger truth is that time for these three are running out and as such they are courtesan themselves to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. And now we see the larger setting that the article ‘Saudi brands reach $116.8 billion in value fueled by energy, banking, and telecoms sectors’ (at https://brandfinance.com/press-releases/saudi-brands-reach-116-8-billion-in-value-fuelled-by-energy-banking-and-telecoms-sectors) gives us, and the values we see are “STC (brand value up 16% to USD16.1 billion)”, it is number two. Number one is Aramco (of course) and that is oil and I didn’t want to ‘taint’ the setting. After that we get “Almarai (brand value up 20% to USD4.7 billion)” but the third one is the kicker “Saudia (brand value up 34% to USD1.1 billion)” and here is the setting of three out of the ten that these are brands that have a 16%, 20% and 34% growth, totally unheard of in western settings and as such everyone wants in. Wall Street pretty much demand these new settings, but this is not on Wall Street, as such several brands (including me) are pretty desperate to get in. And I have made a few unsuccessful moves and I will totally try to do so again and again. I told a previous boss a few years ago that they had to get there now, now the going is good. But alas, it fell on deaf ears and now as brands in the EU, US and Japan are getting desperate we will see a total new stage of in-fighting and spading their opponents. But as they diminish one another, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will get the cream of the crop at a mere 65% of the total value, because the desperate will sucker themselves to get into the game as early as possible, hoping that the going is good early in the game. I get that, I would feel the same way (as a non-captain of industry that I merely my view) and now that China is entering these fields as well, the west is desperate to get in.

And at present we see little to no evidence how three players can have a cumulative debt of $70 trillion dollars. This is $70,000,000,000,000. Did you ever consider that the debt of these three is more than all the gold in the world? How is that possible? Is it because these three have the assets, because the debt is manageable? We think that we can all be a millionaire as long as we can couch up $55,000 in interest every year, but that is a debt without an end date, you pay as long as you live and that is not a realistic setting but these governments are telling you that story with the assistance of stakeholders (who get their own revenue out of that), yet at that point we ned to consider that you are a millionaire at $55,000 plus whatever the stakeholder charges and now it get to be a little iffy (aka yucky). It is a setting that is delusional, as such they all (desperately) need to be part of the Saudi branding, yet as I see it the Saudi’s have another view, you see STC gave us in 2024 “In 2023, we expanded our global footprint even further by acquiring a 9.9% interest in Telefonica and launching TAWAL operations in three European countries. Over the past year, STC Group has focused on diversifying our global offer to connect people across countries and continents.” They gave us that in March 2024, and the sphere of influence of Saudi Arabia is expanding. So whilst by an expected 2029 we might see brand X, but it is fueling STC for a larger and larger slice of the pie. As such it will all be co-owned by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and this is not white washing. It is merely business and these stakeholders will turn to the needs of their own paychecks more and more. 

And this is not a dream story, it is not a nightmare story. It is about to become the reality of things and as such our paychecks go in part not to Telefonica, it will go to Tawal and through that to the STC. A simple business setting and for the most the media is will not inform you, it adheres to the needs of shareholders, stake holder and advertisers. 

This is the power of branding and whilst we think that Nike, Lululemon and Jaguar are great brands, there is an underlying setting that the cool car is owned by Natarajan Chandrasekaran (chairman and Managing Director) and Saurabh Agrawal (CFO) (to some degree). And now we see the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expanding in all kinds of directions. In this I kinda set that stage in ‘An altering stage’ which I wrote on October 2nd 2023. I used the word ‘kinda’ as the focus was China and I wrote “It is a summary and you should read it. It shows several elements that are taking the world by storm. It is not “As shown in the latest IMF annual review of the country’s economy, progress has been most notably reflected in non-oil growth, which has accelerated since 2021, averaging 4.8 percent in 2022. Despite lower overall growth reflecting additional oil production cuts, non-oil growth will remain close to 5 percent in 2023, spurred by strong domestic demand.” We get the goods here, but it is “The economy’s non-oil growth has been spurred by strong domestic demand, particularly private non-oil investment. Sustaining this performance requires pursuing sound macroeconomic policies and maintaining the reform momentum, irrespective of developments in oil markets.” Even if the stage is not revealed, when combined with other views we see that ‘strong domestic demand’ is merely one string from the harp of economy, the harp of Saudi economy. What matters is that larger streams involving defence, technology, construction, tourism and services are ALL moving towards Chinese shores. We see some of it now, but that list is rapidly expanding and the next US vote is 45 days away with them having to brood on a loss of billions and it will be a lot more than 1 billion.” Which was a slightly different setting than the IMF reported on and I saw that two years ago. It is the story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/10/02/an-altering-stage/) which gives the goods, so consider that I had this at that point, so why didn’t the media see this over the last 17 months? Consider that before you lash out and wonder who you should blame. 

Too many of us are kept in the dark and you should wonder why. You see I am not an economist or some savant. Yet I know data and I have parsed data for decades, and I saw a long time ago that the numbers didn’t add up. So wonder how the media could have missed it all. You were merely given slithers of data and until you consider the larger picture (which the bulk of the media will not give you) wonder why and it is not that it was to complex. As I personally consider the setting is that stake holders are part of the deception. Their cheques are too fat, so they like this game how it is played and they have been playing it for years. 

Have a great day and remember, don’t trust all you read, verify the data you are given, even my data. I am not telling you to trust my data. If anything I am a little like Fox Mulder (from the X-Files) and trust no one, not even me. 

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May 18, 2025 · 09:51

Delphi in a name

Yup, we are talking about Oracle, not Borland. And whenever I hear Oracle I tend to add the ‘of Delphi’ automatically. It is a Pavlovian thing. This is nothing negative about Oracle, I wanted to join their ranks in the 90’s, and beyond the millennium a few times too. My origin settings was a database programmer (I earned my stripes with Clipper, the Nantucket version). I think it is the very first program where I shelled out $650 (Dfl. 1,200) for a program and I learned a lot through Clipper. I also got the Clipper notes (Norton Notes) and these two kept my in my apartment (on a desk chair) for weeks and weeks at a time. I relish these happy days. Then of course I got into technical support and customer care through a precursor of IBM and my life at that point was pretty complete. I miss those days and I still think fondly of them. Not so much the upper ranks of that company with their political games, but them I was never a political player. 

So when I saw ‘Oracle commits to invest $14bn in Saudi Arabia over next 10 years’ (at https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/oracle-commits-to-invest-14bn-in-saudi-arabia-over-next-10-years/) my mind starting swirling and twirling (sorry JK Rowling) and my creative logging started to set new parameters. 

You see, we are given “Oracle has committed to investing $14 billion in Saudi Arabia over the next 10 years to expand its cloud and AI offerings in the region. The plans were announced by the company on May 13, and in the wake of President Donald Trump’s visit to the Kingdom” this implies Technical Support, Customer Care and Trainings. Things I can do (all three) and I have had well over a decade of experience in these sections. As such I keep my eyes open for positions needed in either Riyadh, Mississauga or Abu Dhabi. I reckon that the investments are not just for Saudi Arabia, they are all spend in Saudi Arabia, but there will be essentially needed persons in Abu Dhabi because no one walks away from ADNOC and with ARAMCO in Saudi Arabia, a secondary call center would be needed in Abu Dhabi. And they too will have all three settings in that centre, beyond that I reckon that it will a location will be cheaper in the heart of ADNOC than in Dubai, so there.

When we see “Our expanded partnership with the Kingdom will create new opportunities for its economy, deliver better health outcomes for its people, and fortify its alliance with the United States, which will create a ripple effect of peace and prosperity across the Middle East and around the world.” The words “a ripple effect of peace and prosperity across the Middle East” merely implies (not confirms) the setting I see. You see, it makes sense to do this, but it requires knowledge of Oracle policies (and I don’t know those).

So when we see “Oracle has two existing cloud regions in Saudi Arabia – Saudi Arabia West, located in Jeddah, and Saudi Arabia Central in Riyadh. The former was launched in 2020, the latter launched in 2024, and is hosted in a Center3 data center. The company has been planning a third in the upcoming Neom City since October 2021, which remains listed on Oracle’s website as “coming soon.”” Someone would think that another cloud the UAE cloud should be there as well. Merely not mentioned in this stage, but ADNOC is too big to walk away from and Microsoft has dropped the ball too many times. There is a setting that implies that IBM and or AWS are already there, but that gives the larger setting that ADNOC becomes dependent on one supplier and they are as smart as they come. So I am betting that Oracle has that region (as well as Dubai) in mind when we consider DAMAC (valued at US$ 595 million) with the total revenue recorded by DAMAC Properties was AED 7.5 billion (2017), and they are not all. There is also Emaar Properties, which is said to be the biggest of them all and that are the kind of clients Oracle really likes to keep happy, as such I saw the stage evolve, even though they are already there and in January 2025 we were given ‘Oracle to increase Abu Dhabi investment five-fold’, as such I think that there might be a new need to seek employment with Oracle. Now add to that the quote “Earlier this month, the Abu Dhabi government put out a call for the development of a single multi-cloud system that will serve more than 40 government entities” and you’ll see that there might be space for me too, either in Abu Dhabi or in Mississauga and the two cover a little over 20 hours a day coverage in a 24:7 setting. The nice part is that it takes time to get people up to speed, so I might have an advantage (merely a slight one). 

So as I am about to dream the day away on this rainy Sunday. I see the cogs of industry revolve around the settings of the world and I keep having happy thoughts.

So have a great day everyone, preferably less rainy than it is here.

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March 22, 2025 · 11:21

Twinkletoes

Yup, this happens to us all. Even the non-dancers. Twinkletoes means “used to refer to someone who is a good dancer or who moves lightly on their feet”, I accept that, but as I personally see it, it Also stages the person who has the situation that the person “who is a thinker or who moves swiftly in their brain” the same situation applies. I have been iterating new IP through existing games for over two days now (and it is really exhausting). I have been making new iterations to my version of Elder Scrolls 6: Restoration, a new FarCry (based on the legendary FarCry 3), the new RPG I have set on paper here, new iterations of commerce (in the RPG’s) and added a setting to a new stealth RPG (not a new Assassins Creed) and a very new approach to Watchdogs 5: Observations (in its earliest infancy), I had already commenced Watchdogs 4 to paper (somewhere on this blog) and it plays in modern day Japan. I changed the setting to Sapporo, as this is relatively new in gaming and as such there is novelty in new locations and the story requires a harbor setting. And this has been merely the last two days, although the original setting were created up to 5 years ago, with the setting of Restoration (TES6) almost 10 years ago. So as I am driven to near exhaustion as my brain is in twinkletoe mode, I can assure you that it is merely my version of overly active brain syndrome (perhaps there is a medical term for it) and it is leaving me a little tired. As it the case, it did give me the setting of Watchdogs 5, the issue here that it is a networking setting as the game goes in pairs. 

It is also less action driven, but more activity driven, as such you can be the hacker or the Agent in this game, there is a larger setting that you as one or the other can give clues to a fellow on the other side of the isle and the goal is to create a more robust observation and detection system. The frail setting of certain systems allows for actions to be monitored on CCTV, the internet and personal observations. The thought came to me as I was remembering 1985 video game Hacker by Activision. It was designed by Steve Cartwright and he got it done on a system with a mere 64KB, too what happens when we throw some real power to it? What happens when we unite agents and hackers and run the system from both ends? Can this result in a much more robust system? What happened when the game adds zero day faults (Apple has a few, Microsoft has tons as I personally see it). So what happens when we set these stages in motion and it is not merely point and click, so why happens when a Palantir (Gotham) system is thrown into the mix? I am merely postulating now, the reasoning that games could also instruct or teach people on how vulnerable they are in real life. 

As we move from station to station, some might remember the game V (based on the 1983 TV series), you merely run to a point and activate that system to let the red fumes inhabit the space station (I think that was what I was supposed to do), but add a section based on Portal (by Rob Swigart, 1986) you can get a lot more. That is the setting that I see when we set a game like Hacker to a much larger stage and at that point it is new IP, not merely some variation of IP, but a much larger stage and totally new. A game that teaches, informs and trains the next stage. As we now see that programmers are programming bots to keep scammers uselessly busy, we can grow more mundane and more intense in almost any direction. And it is a new endeavor, not some wannabe drip drip copy, but something totally new. Just like the makers of Chipwits (by Epyx, 1984) made a new version a larger and more enticing version on these newer systems, we can grow many games in new jackets and larger premises to new heights. And these systems have the computation powers to net the stage much larger. We can use the setting of the Balance of Power and add a few cogs to make it a much larger machine. And as Chipwits has a new version 42 years later in a much larger setting, we can do this in many ways and I wrote about them around 4 years ago. The new IP set on original ideas and stupidly discarded by this who thought the new horizons require better games, all whilst these games are the timeless golden oldies. We saw and forgot what Millennium 2.2 brought on the Commodore Amiga with 1024 KB on 150ns. Now we have systems (and mobiles) with 32000 times more memory and more than 15000 times more storage whilst the processors are over 250,000 times faster. You can really go to town on those merits and create the larger setting on several stages. I said that this was part of the 50 million Amazon Luna sales that I foresaw and some are in such stages now, but as I saw it Amazon stayed asleep and like Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin (1864) they went with that setting in the trend of “There go my people. I must find out where they are going so I can lead them” and the left billion on the floor all relying on the AI hype. I was thinking on that last week, there is no AI and I see it as NIP, Near Intelligent Parsing (making it NIP avoiding the confusion with IP). A setting that is overlooked, because as there is no AI, they all shout, so what is it then? Well, it is near intelligent, there is no real intelligence at present and it is set to the programmers who are parsing data and ideas into new (flawed) data. You see, a lot of this is intelligence and it almost get you there, but not entirely, the training models are set to more and more likely outcomes but there are percentages that are off and that is where the shoe becomes the wrong fit and I reckon that when these errors hit ADNOC and ARAMCO both will want some legal satisfaction and it might be a few years away, but it will happen, because the distance between real AI and NIP will be the size of the Grand Canyon (which these AI proclaimers will deny) and as they throw more complex legal documents at the customers they will get out to ‘their’ field retired and non-accountable to any legal discourse. It is almost like bad mortgages sold (or swapped) to new owners and they get out. Yet this field is the new wild west and I refuse to become part of it. And what happens, I saw the new stages of income based on old software. The Atari 600/800, Atari ST, CBM64 and CBM Amiga gave us over 10,000 games between 1983 and 1999. So if we only take the highest scoring 10% we get 1000 games. Now 30%-50% have IP protection, but I saw the override in new IP in a few ways and these are valid options as I see it and that implies that that ‘great’ (not really) game brand Microsoft, left thousands of options on the floor whilst they went to spend billions on something that I not panning out. You see, where it all becomes a new kind of hustle, all whilst for over two years I have written on other means to get revenue? And I am not done yet, because as I see it, the more I write here, the more revenue I show and the more IP I give here, the weaker the bog tech firms show themselves to be. A simple setting with simple outcomes and the best gig becomes that should someone copy the IP I set here, the bigger the losers biotech becomes. A simple equation to the question what makes for a good game?

That leaves me with the question, is there a mental setting to Twinkletoes? It is merely a mental thing in me, the question I cannot answer has a larger appeal than most other things in life. Have a great day and if you wonder what bag I left here? I do some things with intent, you can’t give away the game and here is the setting. In November 2018 I wrote ‘It’s about time, slappers only’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/11/29/its-about-time-slappers-only/) the premise to Watchdogs 4, and the larger player would be the one with Meta Glasses, before Meta even had glasses, I call them Google Glasses. As such I was ahead from META by years. And as I see it, I have done so a few times with games and when we see Software companies make ‘innovative’ claims (hardware suppliers too) I get to be front and central in their claims showing them what I had created years ago. I reckon that I am mere steps to show what I had months if not years from what Bernard Arnault apparently had created whilst I had the setup in my bog (and more) close to a year before they made their AR (Augmented Reality) claims through LVMH. I was a few steps ahead of them and I made it common goods in my blog before March 21st 2023 in ‘The unplanned story’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/21/the-unplanned-story/) and all the wannabe innovators (no referral to Bernard Arnault) can go suck an egg. As I said, have a great day with an optional game or two, because gaming makes the brain go in innovative mode.

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January 27, 2025 · 04:22

A call to arms

That is what is in me. Calling you all up to arms. The first issue is Donald Trump, the president of Unites States of bankruptcy. And we see this possibly quite clearly. The first part is (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/buy-canadian-tariff-threat-implications-1.7439117) where we see ‘Why ‘buying Canadian’ isn’t as easy as it sounds’ And we are given “Can shrewd shopping truly help Canada push back on economic threats from the United States? If you believe the rhetoric from some political leaders, every little bit helps — especially if consumers pay closer attention to labels.” I believe we need to do more, we the people of the commonwealth must unite, Canada is our larger brother and the United States of Bankruptcy have no business making claim to it as the 51st state. There is no opportunity as that weasel Kevin O’Leary states. America has to fine ways to raise its economic awareness of go under. And the oil and forests of Canada are not the way. As a commonwealth Australia, India, Jamaica, New Zealand, United Kingdom and the other 8 nations have a duty, yes duty I say to if whenever possible to buy Canadian. As such all American maple syrups go from the shelves right now and are replaced with the real Canadian version. 

Wood and other stuff needs to be bought from Canadian dealers only. It might not be enough, yet tell me honestly when Trump attacks us, should we not respond? If he attacks one of us all with tariffs and we, all 15 replace American goods whenever possible with Canadian, adding to that notion by switching oil by Canada ($11.8B), United Kingdom ($11.4B), and India ($10.8B) from America to Canada, it will hurt America at least 33 billion right there, the other Commonwealth nations might not be the largest customers, but every little bit helps. Oh, and if we all stop American import oil, America can stop crying like a bitch to make oil cheaper from Saudi Arabia, they can now provide for their own oil. 

It might not be enough, but if the dent is great enough, America will think twice with their ambition to annex Canada into America. So as we see “Make sure we send a message to big retailers. Costco, Sobeys, Walmart, Metro and Loblaws. Buy Canadian products.” Our Commonwealth nations could add Coles, Woolworths, Aldi, Co-op, Sainsbury’s and a few others to that list. And this would also benefit the UK. So how much of a dent is needed for America to realize that pissing of the ally they once had was a really bad idea? The second article (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-premiers-buy-canadian-trade-war-1.7438587) also gives us in ‘Trudeau, premiers urge shoppers to buy Canadian as country prepares for a trade war’ “As a possible trade war with the U.S. looms, Trudeau and the premiers are now furiously trying to dismantle long-standing internal barriers to make it easier to trade goods and move workers across provincial borders.” And in that case, their brothers and sisters in the Commonwealth should also be heeding the call they face. 

And do not relent, let America face the hardcore upgrade to financial pains by removing massive parts of their income. It is the least we can do. Must of us could get the oil needed from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This could open additional markets for both sides. As such there could be a call to add Aramco and ADNOC fueled gas stations. My temporary issue is that we see “Our refinery at Lytton (ample) uses crude oil largely sourced from Australia, New Zealand, south-east Asia, Africa, and North America.” As such North America should be rescinded from that list and replaced with oil from Canada, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Ampol has over 1900 locations in Australia and 262 in New Zealand, time to upgrade that list of places. As I said it might not be enough, but in hardship the Commonwealth has such together and our big brother needs out help now. We all should unite and let the baboonish call to make the 51st state a thing of the past. We see that America is also making the call to invest 500 billion into AI and that might be (might is the operative word) the final straw for their collapsing economy. You see there is only one definition of AI and it was handed to us by Alan Turing. Based on his paper 1950 paper ‘Computing Machinery and Intelligence’ (see https://www.turing.org.uk/scrapbook/test.html) 

turingDownload

(source: University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC))

As I see it, what we have now is an exploding predictive analytics model set so verbose that it never learns, it merely sets all the combinations of the set in data. It was a decent solution in 1986 when it was Chessmaster 2000 brought by The Software Toolworks and later after passing several hands until 2009 it was in the hands of Ubisoft. The Chessmaster 9000 was said to have an ELO of 2718. Data formats had evolved, but the larger setting was that the system never really evolved and in 1986 our concepts of data were different. Like some rainbow tables approach to the presentation of data we grew more attuned to the situation, but it still isn’t AI. A predictive analytical model using deeper machine learning and LLM model is of course much better, but it just isn’t AI and the elements requiring AI are not in existence yet. We now know what it should look like and a Dutch Physicist has now proven and shown the Epsilon particle to exist, but it isn’t here yet. For that matter until that evolves into a trinary system we are out of luck and President Trump puts 500 billion in this? This will always go sideways in the direction no revenue will come from and at some points the banks will want to see their revenue. A simple setting that is coming the way of America with no recourse. So yes, I am calling to arms to protect Canada, our Commonwealth brother. 

So why the AI part?
If America is to be set to their decisions, then the folly they employ is also a measurement and a hindrance to success. I do not oppose the effort, but in this ago that a solution is ‘presented’ as the holy grail and the future financial solution, the fact that it will never work at present is also the hindrance for the presented result. I don’t care that Microsoft is plunging billions in this and whilst securing 3.5 million carbon credits. The bigger setting is a joke (as I personally see this) like toddlers playing Texas Hold’em poker. With the pot merely increasing and when you realize that this could cost you the hand and in the case of America their nation. In this I believe it is essential to stand by Canada. We see all these companies vesting their chances and the effort is good, but the risk is theirs at present and now President Trump is making the country the presented bet of a folly hand. And it matters and no one is considering that too much will be lost, not even the media.

The media is not looking (or too little) at the dangers of data poisoning and malicious use of the data train in development. These two settings involve people and there is a near complete lack of verification of data and that could cost us all in time. So whilst America is willing to hedge its bet by presenting a solution that cannot yet exist (or in the near future) we can leave them to their sorry state and hand protection to our brother Canada to keep it secure and out of American hands. As such I call to arms.

Try to have a great day.

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January 25, 2025 · 05:31

How does commerce work?

That is at times the question. As I see it President Trump has a flawed nd warped view of one. We get that from the Middle East Monitor, aka MEMO (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250123-trump-calls-for-1-trillion-saudi-investment-lower-oil-prices/) where we are given ‘Trump calls for $1 trillion Saudi investment, lower oil prices’ And I thought it was an error, but it was not (several publications give me a similar view). The weirdest part is “US President Donald Trump, on Thursday, said he will demand Saudi Arabia and OPEC bring down the cost of oil and will ask Riyadh to increase a planned US investment package to $1 trillion from an initial reported $600 billion” (source: Reuters). And the weird part is set in fact. When we see that USA exports 10.15 barrels of oil daily and IMPORTS 8.53 million barrels of oil, we come to the conclusion that America want cheap oil so that they can get a better margin on selling their oil (which will not be cheaper). So why would Saudi Arabia and Aramco do that? Would anyone do that? As such I think that America is thinking of getting the (speculated) $40,000,000 a day margin to settle their mega trillion dollar debt. It also makes me wonder how close are they to becoming bankrupt? And beside that, they want Saudi Arabia to invest a trillion dollars over 4 years. To be honest it seems like a radical stupid notion to get someone to invest a trillion dollars and lower the price of oil so that Saudi Arabia will be regarded as a friend? Sounds a weird approach to business to me. The quote given is ““But I’ll be asking the Crown Prince, who’s a fantastic guy, to round it out to around $1 trillion,” Trump told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “I think they’ll do that because we’ve been very good to them.”” So exactly how has America been good to Saudi Arabia? Saudi Arabia has not been able to acquire the F35? Whilst Saudi Arabia civilian targets were hit by Houthi Terrorists, America did not come forward to sell necessarily equipment. So how has America shown themselves as a worthy ally?

You see, in my books an ACTUAL ally will aid when needed and supply hardware when needed (and paid for in some cases). There is also the notion that Iran have been circumventing the US Navy in several cases to deliver hardware to Houthi Terrorists, some navy. The funny part that MEMO describes “he will demand Saudi Arabia and OPEC bring down the cost of oil”, so now Saudi Arabia is seen separate from OPEC? OPEC is called that as it is the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. So, Saudi Arabia is not part of OPEC? A weird setting as I see it and if America is as broke as it seems to be, it makes some sense, but this would be regarded as a desperate knee jerk move (as I see it).

And on this setting, it has every notion of driving the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia straight into the fold of China and their plans for the world according to China. So how does that help America?

Just a thought to have this lovely Saturday morning.

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November 27, 2024 · 17:06

Saudi Fun craft

That is on the agenda. Most people are hauling what they can to see their name in COP29, but the others (or those who put their name down already) are trying to be seen as the anti-China voice in the middle east. Because that is what Trump wants, right?

That is the setting of the next wannabe, the next facilitator or the next service provider. Saudi Arabia, Aramco, the UAE and ADNOC’s next need, that is what their limited view states. I cannot agree. That was what the region needed, the next iteration however is as subtle as a maul to a shin.

You see, most are ‘reacting’ to ‘Better offer needed if the US wants to pull Saudi Arabia away from China’ (Amwaj media) or ‘Saudi Arabia seeks mining deals with Chinese, Indian and Canadian firms in industry push’ (AL-monitor). There are more headlines, but the cautious player notices that America (or USA) is in several instances no longer mentioned. That is the actual play. President  elect Trump has a problem. His library is not on the mind of those who need to have it on their minds and that is a plural issue. Microsoft might be ‘offering’ the world to the UAE in AI, but the critics who know a thing or two are skeptical. I cannot tell if there is a silence delay, or an actual disregard in play for the USA. You need to be in the know with China and a certain palace in Riyadh to know the actual setting. And in this Amwaj gives us “if Washington truly wants Riyadh to join the US camp, it should come up with a better offer—instead of a proposition with strings attached.” Funny that, I said something similar on March 11th 2020 in ‘Who is Miss Calculation?’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/03/11/who-is-miss-calculation/) the words are not the same, but the spirit was. As most would embrace Good business is where you find it, others went for Money talks, bullshit walks. So who was president then?

It does not matter, policies are always on a turntable, but the disc hits that direction 33 times a minute. Faster if you play a CD. No matter whose president when this matter resurfaces. China had a while to set his ducks in a row and he merely needs to watch the fallout whilst he takes shelter regarding the massive boink the Americas show when things turn sour.

America needs a positive hit and that implies being close friends with the Arabian allies UAE and Saudi Arabia. All whilst they know that they need to be friends with China as well. And that is a bitter pill to swallow for America. The tables turn even further as elemental deals (where America would have been the A-team for Arabia) we now see China, India and Canada taking slices of that pie as well. I send stern warnings in 2020 and now we see it happen. So consider that America had the biggest part of that pie until 2015, now we see that America (with $36,000,000,000,000 debt) ends up with a suspected mere 45% of that pie, 55% went into other directions. Add to that the deals Europe and Australia expects to make before Jan 1st 2025 and you see that Saudi Arabia is doing what it needs to do for its country. It might not look nice, but that is the reality of it all and I gave the people heads up for over 4 years. Now it all ‘looks like a crises’ that does not mean it is. It is merely a crises when you were unaware of it all and America was very aware. So seeks the sands with COP29 all whilst there are over 41000 flights each day and many are not needed. So how is that for “biologically formed organic matter”. Yes they will stop some of this all whilst a massive chunk of of these 41000 flight each day could be deleted. So where is COP29 now?

And it gets to be bad, or worse for America. The Tariff deal for Canada is seen as disastrous. But when it can deal with China and Saudi Arabia, what Canada loses on one side, it will gain more on the other side, America painted itself in a corner. And for the sweeter deal? It might be too late for that. China has gained about 15% of the pie that was meant for America, as such the bills will be pushed along forward and there is actual consideration that America would have to lease its land to others to make a shilling and it is not shillings that America needs. It needs a wheelbarrow of these coins. As I see it, America now has less than 4 turns until it can no longer make any moves. It wont be able to afford the entry fee to make a move. As such I personally believe that America has been playing the wrong game. They were playing chess whilst Chinese chess was needed. They never used the board optimal and now that they figured out the game, it is too late for that.

In my own view (optionally a wrong one), the friends of Trump are heading for the hills. They will not get away Scott free, but they will get away. The rest gets saddled with the biggest invoice in human history and they cannot foot the bill. And don’t think that this is not on you all. Your pensions are about to go the way of Lehman Brothers 2003. The loans that are still outgoing will be foreclosed by the banks foreclosing your banks and you end up having nothing to live upon. That too was blatantly obvious before the end of 2023. Now it matters to whom have the flexibility to make moves with whatever capital they have. Don’t rely on the stock markets. Have investments that are mobile, or optionally real estate. I feel certain that it will come to blows in 2025 when America shows that it has issues settling the bills they have. That is when panic goes global. And when you see this unfold those with a decent penny in Aramco and ADNOC will have a return on investment, the rest? Whatever of these rest players will be left alive in Q2 2025, because there is no reality that this will be true.

And when you ask how come? That would be fair and the answer wa staring you in the face. Country 1 gave payment to a debt of country 2 and Country 2 gave payment to a debt of country 1. So what is that called? And this had been going on for decades. I thought the barn was done away with when we learned of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic going south on the debit line. However, the worst was dealt with. This time around it might be worse. The USA would need to call themselves bankrupt and the impact of that is beyond my ability to see, but I am willing to place a bet that China knows exactly what to do. You see, when this comes to pass China and others can vie for the 6,278,000 billion barrels a day it imports. It might be cheaper then getting their own oil, but that is where it is headed. India and China will try to get the largest chunk of it. As such Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Colombia will need new customers and I reckon India and China will be chomping at the bits to get these slices of oil. It will impact global economy to a much larger extent. And that was merely the first part. Consider that Huawei is taking over another slice of technology and you have one country falling short on several fields, merely because they did not think things through. So wanna seen what happens when you owe a bank a massive amount of cash and you can only cover 60% of the monthly payments?

How long until this party is over?

Enjoy the day.

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November 16, 2024 · 13:33

Is it a public service

There is a saying (that some adhere to). How often can you slap a big-tech company around for it to be regarded as personal pleasure instead of a public service? There is an answer, but I am not the proper source of that (and I partially disagree). Slapping Microsoft around tends to be a public service no matter how you slice it. Perhaps some people at 92, NE 36th St, Redmond, WA 98052 might start seeing this as their moment to clean up that soiled behemoth. Anyway this all started actually yesterday. I saw an article and I put it next to me. I had other ideas (like actual new IP ideas), but the article was still there this morning and I gave it another look.

The article (at https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366615892/Microsoft-UAE-power-deal-at-centre-of-US-plan-for-AI-supremacy) gives us ‘Microsoft UAE power deal at centre of US plan for AI supremacy’ was hilarious for two reasons. The first is one that academics can agree on There is not (yet) such a setting like AI (Artificial Intelligence) and personally I am smirking at the idea that Microsoft can actually spell the word correctly (howl of deriving laughter by silly old me). And the start of the article gives us “Microsoft has struck an artificial intelligence (AI) energy deal with United Arab Emirates (UAE) oil giant ADNOC after a year of extraordinary diplomacy in which it was the vehicle for a US strategy to prevent a Chinese military tech grab in the Gulf region.” In this I am having the grinning setting that this is one way to give oil supremacy to Aramco and that is merely the beginning of it. And the second was the line “a US strategy to prevent a Chinese military tech grab in the Gulf region” and it is my insight that this is a clicking clock. One tick, one tock leading to one mishap and Microsoft pretty much gives the store to China. And with that Aramco laughingly watches from the sidelines. There is no if in question. This becomes a mere shifting timeline and with every day that timeline becomes a lot more worrying. Now the fist question you should ask is “Could he be wrong?” And the answer is yes, I could be wrong. However the past settings of Microsoft shows me to be correct. And in this all, the funny part to see is that with the absence of AI, the line “a plan to become an AI superpower” becomes folly (at the very least). There are all kinds of spins out there and most are ludicrous. But several sources state “There are several reasons why General AI is not yet a reality. However, there are various theories as to what why: The required processing power doesn’t exist yet. As soon as we have more powerful machines (or quantum computing), our current algorithms will help us create a General AI” or to some extent. Marketing the spin of AI does not make it so. And Quantum computing is merely the start. Then we get the shallow circuit setting and as I personally call it the trinary operating system. You see, all computing is binary and the start of trinary is there. Some Dutch scientist was able to prove the trinary particle (the Ypsilon particle). You see that set in a real computing environment is the goal (for some). The trinary system creates the setting of a achievable real AI. The trinary system has for phases NULL, TRUE, FALSE and BOTH. It is the both part that binary systems cannot do yet, as such any deeper machine learning system is flawed by human interference (aka programming and data errors because of it). This is the timeline moment where we see the folly of Microsoft (et al). 

So then we get to “It also entrenches Microsoft’s place at the crux of the environmental crisis, pledging to help one of the world’s largest oil firms use AI to become a net-zero producer of carbon emissions, while getting help in return in building renewable energy sources to feed the unprecedented demand that the data-centres powering its AI services have for electricity.” OK, not much to say against. This is a business opportunity nicely worded by Microsoft. these are realistic goals that Deeper Machine Learning could do, but that pesky setting gets the novel approach where people (programmers) need to make calls and a call made in the name of AI, still doesn’t make that so. As such when that data error is found, the learning algorithms will need to be retrained. How much time lag does that give? And make no mistake ADNOC will not tolerate these level of errors. It amounts to billions a day and the oil business is cut throat. So when I state that Aramco is sitting on the sideline howling, I was not kidding. That is how I see this develop. Then we get “The same paradox was played out at the COP 28 climate conference in Dubai last December, while Microsoft prepared to ink a $1.5bn investment in UAE state-owned AI and data-centre conglomerate G42, where Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC oil chief, chaired a global agreement to ditch fossil fuels.” This is harder to oppose. It is pretty much an agreement between two parties. However I wonder how the responsibilities of Microsoft are voiced, because it will hang on that and perhaps Microsoft slipped one by ADNOC, but that is neither here or there. You don’t become chief of ADNOC without protecting that company so without the papers I cannot state this will get Microsoft in hot waters. However, I am certain that any boast towards ‘miscommunication’ will hand the stables, the farm and the livestock (aka oil) right in the hands of China. You see, people will focus on the $1.5 billion investment by Microsoft, yet I wonder how much (or how long) the errors are unspotted. That will be an error that could result into billions a day lost and that is something that Microsoft is unlikely to survive. Then there is the third player. You see America angered China with the steps they have taken in the past. And I have no doubt that China will be keeping an eye on all this and whilst some might want to ‘hide’ mishaps. China will be at the forefront of illuminating these mistakes. And these mistakes will rear their ugly heads. They always do and the track record of Microsoft is not that great (especially when millions scrutinise your acts). As such this is a like standing on a hill where the sand is kept stable on a blob of oil, until someone walks that it merely seems stable, the person walking there became the instability of it all. Not the most eloquent expression, but I think it works and Microsoft have been trodding too much already and now China feels grieved (not sure it is a valid feeling) but for China it matters and getting Microsoft to fail will be their only target. Well, that is it all from me and looking at how this will go, I have a nice amount of popcorn ready to watch two players slug it out. In the meantime Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber has merely one thought “Did I deserve what I about to unfold?” And I can’t answer that because it is depending on the papers he co-signed and I never saw these papers, so I cannot give an honest response to that.

Let’s see how this fight unfolds on the media, enjoy your day wherever you are (it is still Friday west of Ireland).

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October 6, 2024 · 20:05

Is it merely political?

That was the thought I had. It came from Politico, as such I would believe that it was political. Yet the larger premise is on the setting of circumstance. This sounds weirdly spooky, but it is the best I can offer. The story (at https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-war-economy-pain-saudi-arabia-sink-global-oil-prices-energy-russia-opec/) starts with ‘Putin’s war economy faces pain if Saudis sink global oil prices’ which is a partial truth, but it goes further then that. We are given “A Saudi move to grab market share will squeeze the Kremlin’s finances, experts argue” which is only a partial truth. The entire part is followed by “Riyadh is increasingly frustrated with other petrostates’ failure to coordinate on cutting supply to raise oil prices to about $100 per barrel — up from the current $70. Oil traders say Saudi Arabia is now set to respond by flexing its muscles and turning the tables on smaller producers, exporting more oil itself to grab market share and profits, even as prices fall.” We are also given “The Financial Times reported last week that Saudi Arabia could abandon its long-held ambitions to limit the crude supply to push prices to around $100 a barrel. Oil market experts have little doubt that Saudi Arabia has the enormous production and export capacity to change tactics and gun for market domination through volume instead.” In this view I need to align a few positions. What is missing is that America (the United Kingdom also) are depending in keeping oil cheap. So that is missing. Hanging it on the Russian needs is a bit dorky. Yes, they both matter, but the US an EU need for cheap oil missing as a pre-made need, is just dorky (I can’t find a better word for this). You see when there is a lack of a commodity prices go up and now this fails? The world requires (at present) that 2.4 million barrels per day pumped more than now and that is not done. I actually speculated this a year ago when I stated that we can pump 4 barrels at $3, or 3 barrels at $4. The amount gained is still the same but at 25% less oil. It is a simple equation (and an incorrect version) but the the premise remains. I went through to the next stage that Saudi Arabia could pump 2 barrels as the price goes up to $6, still the same revenue but now at half the oil delivered. This is how commerce works on commodities. I still doubt the statement that the $100 per barrel cannot be reached, I merely believe that certain stakeholders want the premise to keep their pockets lined. How? I cannot tell, I am not an oil person, I merely use it through various means. So what gives? 

When we get to ““The global economy is fairly sluggish and oil demand is not as high as the Saudis would want,” said Ajay Parmar, director of oil markets analytics at commodities intelligence firm ICIS.” I have issues here. You see, this means that the Russia delivers all oil. There is not a lack of demand, some people are playing a high end game to keep their pockets lined. If I had it my way (pretend that I am the new CEO of Aramco, a very fake one) I would stop 5.5 million barrels a day from reaching the US, EU and UK, in the combination 3,2 and .5 it would take less than 90 days for it all to implode. As Tesla is more and more lacking is quality, the other nations will need 2-3 years to overcome their downfall and in that time China is the new superpower with America stumbling over the edge of the abyss. That is clear in my (optionally wrong) point of view. The setting that Politico gives is too partial and slightly too flawed. 

Yes Russia has a problem and they are welcome to the problems they get to harvest now. A second problem is “Russia’s fossil fuel profits have also risen by 41 percent in the first half of this year alone, according to Moscow’s finance ministry, despite Western sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.” I don’t doubt these numbers, but who paid for that oil? I doubt is was merely China, North Korea and India. Although these countries were involved. I saw last year that India was buying some of the oil, China is a definite and I guess that North Korea had to pay for their weapons and it seems like a logical choice for them to accept oil as payment. So who more? 

Politico should have stated “Russia’s fossil fuel profits have also risen by 41 percent (from 1M barrels to 1.41M barrels)” but they didn’t if Russia only sold 50,000 barrels it will not be an issue, but that is not the case, is it?

Now if you doubt my reasoning. That is fine. But we have seen plenty of issues where prices go up the moment that commodities has a higher demand. Yet the article does not give us that does it? And who is Ajay Parmar? This article leaves me with plenty of questions and no answers. So in all this, Is Russia in actual trouble? To some degree, but I see this as an alternative way for Saudi Arabia to give in to the west requiring cheap oil. I personally believe that Politico missed their mark and as such loses credibility as such. The one part that I do see is “A loophole allows middlemen in countries like Turkey, China and India to refine Russian oil in petrol and diesel before selling it elsewhere — exempt from sanctions. According to a report first seen by POLITICO, Western countries spent $2 billion on this rebranded fuel in the first half of 2024” As such that should be the story and the story is that more and more nations are fuelling Russian revenue through refining Russian oil and filling their pockets. As such there is a momentum being built, one that is not addressed and one that is trivialised as such I expect that plenty of newspapers will fuel their revenue by posting this story. The 41% is now shown to be big business, especially when we see Turkey and India and how they are short on cash pretty much all of the time.

So we are seeing a larger stage. In the first on where is Russian oil going to and in the second what countries are fuelling their demands for cheap oil? A nice spreadsheet would have been nice, but that was a part that Politico oversaw (I guess).

Still as we see one part, we also see the part that some want us to see, appointed awareness. A combination of social awareness and the influence of appointing. A formal arrangement to create a designed social awareness. The ability to understand a situation as the offical parties would like others to see them. But as I see it, this will be at the expense of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Is that fair all whilst Russia is handed loophole after loophole, as long as the west gets its oil cheap. How is this not exploitation? 

Consider what is being done and at what expense? The question is simple enough. 

Enjoy the Sunday you have left to you.

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September 28, 2024 · 22:22

How I fall short

That is the stage, that is the setting. I do not know everything (too boring anyways) and even as I see how things develop and are optionally staged. The fact that I do not know everything gets in the way of some things. Now, I know very little about oil. It is a commodity everyone needs, it is a commodity only some countries have and the two biggest players in that field are Aramco and ADNOC, oil is black and it is needed for the production of petroleum. That’s about all I know. The current price is about $68 dollars per barrel. So when I saw ‘Oil price drops, and BP and Shell shares slide, as Saudi Arabia ‘prepares to abandon $100 crude target’’ I didn’t think too much of it. The story comes from the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/sep/26/european-reconstruction-bank-cuts-growth-forecasts-energy-ukraine-elon-musk-uk-investment-summit), there were more sources, but I am handing you this one. We get “Saudi Arabia is reportedly ready to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 a barrel for crude as it prepares to increase output” yet Oil&Gas journal gives us “Saudi Arabia is preparing to abandon its informal target of $100/bbl for crude oil as it plans to increase production, signalling the kingdom’s acceptance of a period of lower prices and intentions to take back market share, according to sources cited by the Financial Times”, now in my book the shortage of one commodity means prices go up. I do understand that any player will protect market share, as such I get the increase of product to protect your market share. That makes sense. And as such we see Saudi Arabia deciding an increase for about 1 million barrels per day as per December 2024. There are a few players on this field and I like the idea that the increase will make sure that Russia has less customers to get it from Russia is not happy. And as several media are giving us the goods, there is no other way for me than to agree with the setting. In overall there is still a larger concern I have. Oil is a commodity with a finite supply, so how much supply is there? I believe that the middle east has the bulk of it, but the finite session gives us the dangerous setting that at some point, the three countries with supply will be Russia, Iran and Venezuela. That is not a setting I want to wake up to, although at present it is highly unlikely that I will be around the morning we get that piece of news. In the meantime there is a larger issue at stake. How will Aramco increase its creation of oil with an additional 159,000,000 litres of that black fluid. You see everyone is looking at the end result and no one is looking at the how. What is required to that level of increase? I feel certain that it will require a lot more than one pump. It is the increase of 10% (near to that) and comes from 300 rigs. The simpleton in me sees this as an additional 30 rigs. It takes 18 months to five years to commission a rig, the construction timeline for an oil rig can vary significantly depending on several factors and that is if the oil comes from rigs. Saudi Arabia has one hundred oil and gas fields, so if it comes from there, other means are needed. The largest oil field is the Ghawar field. So how can you increase the production there? And is that the only place? We are so desperate for oil that the basic security is overlooked and there is at present Iran, Houthi forces and a few others who are very willing to hurt Saudi Arabia. So what more is needed, because when by November that increase is realised, some will take offence to this and that problem will possibly create all kinds of new problems. And we do not see enough information on that side of the equation.

And advice from me? Nope, I know next to nothing on that topic. I can merely see hurdles and optionally a personal belief that I see options, but that is not what the actual expert on the topic has. And the media? Solutions do not make their digital wallet fat, flames do that and in that view it is not a good idea to put flames close to oil, a mere personal view on the matter.

Have a great weekend.

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