That is a setting I never really contemplated, but the Guardian did and they did a terrific job, they even had a reference to the 49’ers, which will make Jeremy Renner happy. The article ‘The question isn’t whether the AI bubble will burst – but what the fallout will be’ by Eduardo Porter (at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/dec/01/ai-bubble-us-economy) hands us a few sides, a few I never considered as I was looking at the techno stuff, but here we see: “300,000 people flocked there from 1848 to 1855, from as far away as the Ottoman Empire. Prospectors massacred Indigenous people to take the gold from their lands in the Sierra Nevada mountains. And they boosted the economies of nearby states and faraway countries from whence they bought their supplies.”
Which gives root to the expression 49’er and it continues giving us “Gold provided the motivation for California – a former Mexican territory then controlled by the US military – to become a state with laws of its own. And yet, few “49ers” as prospectors were known, struck it rich. It was the merchants selling prospectors food and shovels who made the money. One, a Bavarian immigrant named Levi Strauss who sold denim overalls to the gold bugs passing through San Francisco, may be the most remembered figure of his day.”
And then we get the first sliver “How else to explain Nvidia’s stock price, which more than doubled from April to November, based entirely on the expectation, nay hope, that AI will produce a super-intelligence that can do everything humans do but better. Nvidia – like Levi Strauss back in the day – is at least selling something: computer chips. The valuations of many of the other AI plays – like Open AI or Anthropic – are based largely on the dream.”
But there is a missing cog, this technology needs dat storage and that is where I saw the failing of others and the failings of those overlooking data technologies. Oracle is intrinsically connected to that, Azure needs it, Snowflake prefers it and pretty much every data vendor is connecting to Oracle to get it all done in the background, and that is the sliver. Oracle is intrinsically connected to it all and it is the tamer of the data beast or better stated the data demon. As Oracle brings out tools and optionally data settings within their AI storage settings to handle validation and verification, all others will need to adhere better and deeper to the Oracle foundation to even survive. Pretty much all the sources that see the dangers of what some call AI and is clearly nothing better than a DML/LLM engine will see that these two elements are essential to get the LLM engine to do anything that matters and that is where the bonus of Oracle currently resides (as I presumptuously see it) To show this, I will take you back to 1984
See here, this is what chess computer’s looked like. You press the chess piece you want to move and you push the square where it lands. That is the foundation of the chess computer. In the ‘underground’ of that chessboard are (figuratively speaking) two chips. One had the knowledge of chess, the second chip (mainly memory) has every chess match known to mankind (basically all games all grandmasters have ever played), the program sees what moves are made and that setting is translated to a ‘position base’ and it will look at all the matches who it can foresee what moves are coming. This is great for the player, as it now needs to make an illogical move to throw over the thinking of the computer and make it their bitch. This was pretty much the fist stage of Machine Learning and as todays computers are more clever, there resolution is no way better, It can only set foundation of what it learned, that is the simplicity of knowing that AI doesn’t yet exist.
So back to the story “As I pointed out in my last column about AI, Gita Gopinath, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, calculated that a stock market crash equivalent to that which ended the dot-com boom would erase some $20tn in American household wealth and another $15tn abroad, enough to strangle consumer spending and induce a recession.” And I have no way of knowing that setting, but as I see it, like Levi Strauss and the makers of bubbles (like in image one) someone has to supply the soap water and more important the jeans to not put once ass out to frolic and in that second setting Oracle comes in and even as I see the ‘panic drivers, saying that Oracle is dangerous’, there is another setting. Whatever comes out of this, whatever survives, most only survives on Oracle solutions. And that is what is left unspoken. Should Oracle add the Validation and Verification tables, they will be the only one raking in the gold when True AI comes, because it is not merely the missing part I discussed earlier, someone needs to set the record straight on what is optionally to be trusted and that is where Oracle sets the mark.
Which leads to “AI could produce a similar landscape. A critical determinant is how much debt is at stake. It wouldn’t be such a problem if the bubble were financed largely from the cash pile of Alphabet and Amazon, Microsoft and Facebook. They might lose their shirt, but who cares. The worrying bit is that it seems they are increasingly relying on borrowing, which means the prospect of a bursting bubble would again put the financial system at risk.” These systems are using the data as currency, as I see it, Oracle is putting its technology up for usage and that is a pretty safe way to do this. This is whyI have faith in Oracle, that is why I see Oracle as the one surviving the goldfish like a champion, because they are doing what Levi Strauss did. These data vendors are relying on data to clothe them, but if that data is not properly managed, they end up having nothing. Yes, Microsoft will survive, but at a level that is likely 2 trillion lower than it is now. And that is mainly because it wanted to be on top of things and they got (I think it was) 24% of OpenAI, but as that bursts, Sam Altman will have even less than I have now (and I am ridiculously poor) and that cargo train of debt will hit Microsoft square in the face, Oracle will get some damage, but not nearly as much and the world will need their data solutions. Why do you think everyone wants to connect to Oracle? It is the Rolls Royce of data collecting and data storage. And that is perhaps the only issue with that article, there is zero mention of Oracle.
So as we get “Big Tech has raised nearly $250bn in debt so far this year, according to Bloomberg, a record. Analysts at Morgan Stanley suggest that debt will be needed to fill a $1.5tn funding gap to ramp up spending on data centers and hardware. Problematically, it is getting hard to follow the money, as Nvidia, Open AI and others in the ecosystem buy into each other, clouding who, in the end, will be left holding the bag.” And there is one think wrong with this. Stargate is said to be $500bn, so there is a gap in all this and I reckon that the damage will be significantly worse, that is beside the small non mentioned fact that America at present has 5,427 data centers, how many of them and to what degree are they all set to ‘their version of AI’? So what is set in what some call Blue Owl solutions (like Meta) and what happens when those solutions ‘bubble out’ (collapse might be a better phrase) so when that happens, how much damage will that bring, because as I see it (not wearing glasses) the $1.5tn funding gap won’t even be close what is required. But that is just me speculating, so feel free to (I insist) that you get your own verifiable numbers. I reckon that between now and 2029 the return of a backlogged $4 trillion return on investment is required. So taking “a banks perspective”, an inaccurately amount of $292,500,000,000 in revenue needs to be shown for that bubble not to come and that is out of the question, but the setting that Eduardo Porter gives us, is what comes next and he gives it to us as “the Superhuman – can only come about by dropping LLMs – which are essentially massive correlation engines – and switching to something else called a world model architecture, where machines develop a “mental” model of the outside world.” It is a nice sentiment, but I do not completely agree with that. Correlation engines have their use and there is use in a DML/LLM setting, but identify it as such, not claim ‘AI does it’. Because it won’t and it can’t, but there are options in Oracle to upgrade the data you have and that is instrumental in surviving this bubble burst. And I have seen the folly in several places and that might set a better station down the road, because when true AI cones, it still needs data and if that data was managed, validated and verified in Oracle (preferably), half the war of that solution bringer is solved.
So I need a different hobby, slapping Microsoft and AI evangelists is nice, almost a public service but I need a new idea for gaming IP, because that makes me happy and I like feeling happy. So whilst some think that “Nvidia, Open AI and others in the ecosystem buy into each other” is the hard core evil stuff (and it might be) there is a setting it reminds me of, it was in the 90’s and these ‘consultants’ were all into the need of funny money in the form of assignments, the issue was that when they had to show results they immediately took another job and took their ‘knowhow’ to greener shores and all the time this happened the shores were all becoming less and less green. This has the flair of that setting and to some degree the feel.
I might be wrong on that last part, but that is what I feel on this, especially as the big players are buying into each others solution and handing each other pieces of paper that in the end has as much value as a roll off toilet paper.
It might not be eloquently phrased, but there is a time for that and this is not it, as speculated shit is about to hit the walls and if you are lucky it happens after Christmas (that is almost certain) but in the end, the invoice is due and that is where the CFO’s will show that as they embraced the Blue Owl solution, their company is saved. I would depend on and side with whatever Oracle has, it is not based on facts, it is a feeling and that feeling is strong at present. And in support I see (9 minutes ago) ‘Ooredoo Qatar announces strategic partnership with Oracle to deploy Oracle Alloy sovereign cloud and AI platform’, they didn’t go towards Microsoft, AWS of a few other settings, they trust Oracle and that is what plenty of others need to do.
Have a great day, I am now 8 hours from midweek, not a bad deal for me today and as the sun is shining brightly, I might hide in a winterly Hogsmeade whilst playing Hogwarts Legacy. Gaming is not a bad hobby to have in this case. Because the bubble is out of my control and I am happy to watch it all explode a day later (of whenever that is), most of the garnish news has been drowned out by real news at that point.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 