Tag Archives: Bitcoin

October 22, 2025 · 04:30

The bubble to end all bubbles

That is what I saw mere minutes ago. It was yesterday’s piece at the Financial Review. An opinion piece by Gita Gopinath. Now normally I tend to ignore opinion pieces, but due to the fact that over time Financial Review has shown a good back on several matters and I picked up on the title ‘The crash that could torch $US35trn of wealth’ (at https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/the-crash-that-could-torch-us35trn-of-wealth-20251016-p5n31w) gives pause for alarm. As America has its tourism issues, its economy issue and its technology issues a $35,000 billion write-off would be nothing less than a disaster in the making. I wrote about this a few times, but even I shudder to think of how large this bubble has become. The 2008 crash was half of that and the documentary Inside Job does a great way to explain this. Take this movie together with the movie Margin Call and you get a picture of what was done to the people of the world.

This is more than 100% worse and it started with the delusional setting of salespeople taking the easy road and giving the rest of the world how amazing AI was going to be. The quote “I calculate that a market correction of the same magnitude as the dotcom crash could wipe out over $US20 trillion ($30 trillion) in wealth for American households, equivalent to roughly 70 per cent of American GDP in 2024. This is several times larger than the losses incurred during the crash of the early 2000s. The implications for consumption would be grave. Consumption growth is already weaker than it was preceding the dotcom crash. A shock of this magnitude could cut it by 3.5 percentage points, translating into a 2-percentage-point hit to overall GDP growth, even before accounting for declines in investment” should stop you in your tracks. With the additional “Foreign investors could face wealth losses exceeding $US15 trillion, or about 20 per cent of the rest of the world’s GDP. For comparison, the dotcom crash resulted in foreign losses of around $US2 trillion, roughly $US4 trillion in today’s money and less than 10 per cent of rest-of-world GDP at the time. This stark increase in spillovers underscores how vulnerable global demand is to shocks originating in America” was not unknown to me, but I did not figure on the damage exceeding 10 trillion, here I see I was off by 50% (which comes due to a lack of an economic degree on my side), but data I know, in and out. I saw some of this and I tried to warn people and especially the Emirati people (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/20/the-start-of-something-bad/) in ‘The start of something bad’ only two days ago. And the reason why it would be worse is seen in the next setting of the Financial Review. We are given “Historically, the rest of the world has found some cushion in the dollar’s tendency to rise during crises. This “flight to safety” has helped mitigate the impact of lost dollar-denominated wealth on foreign consumption. The greenback’s strength has long provided global insurance, often appreciating even when the crisis originates in America, as investors seek refuge in dollar assets. There are, though, reasons to believe that this dynamic may not hold in the next crisis. Despite well-founded expectations that American tariffs and expansionary fiscal policy would bolster the dollar, it has instead fallen against most major currencies.” I kinda saw that two days ago, but not to this degree (the Financial Review writes it better) When that bubble burst it will not allow for shelter and the people involved will be hit massively. As I see it Nvidia will survive by will see its value decreased by 90%. Oracle will get hit less but it will still take a beating. Microsoft will be up for sale in the bargain basement and after builder.ai, the bubble will stick to them like gum in hair and they will not be able to shake the event. Others (Google, IBM, Amazon) will be hit, but they will get through this. As I see it, the only high standard that is maintained will be Adobe. Their “AI” options are soundly set in Deeper Machine Learning. As I see it, they will tend to be the shelter of choice if at all possible. 

The only part I disagree with is “Although this does not mark the end of the dollar’s dominance, it does reflect growing unease among foreign investors about the currency’s trajectory. Increasingly, they are hedging against dollar risk – a sign of waning confidence.” As I see it, the dollar comes to an end with this bubble. I do not know what people will rush to, but the dollar is no longer the place to be. As I see it there will be a flock going towards the Yuan, the Dirham and the Bitcoin, but personally I have no idea if the Bitcoin survives. You see, a $35,000 write-off will come from some currency and those hiding in Bitcoin will lose a lot, no telling how much, but it will be close to astronomical. The Financial Review gives us “Perceptions of the strength and independence of American institutions, particularly the Federal Reserve, play a crucial role in maintaining investor confidence.” That independence is close to obsolete. This administration took care of that with all the tariffs, all the tourist settings and the economy is also shaky. It might not be but someone took the trouble of not reporting the ‘goodness’ of their setting. The labour statistics are nowhere to be found and that is shaking investor confidence. All that whilst Paramount is shaking thousands of people of their employment tree, this year alone Microsoft shed 15,000 jobs, IBM is said to have fired 21,000 jobs, making Google’s 100 job losses trivial in comparison. In this setting and with the missing labor statistics the investor confidence would be in the basement and even if the Federal reserve doused that paper in the scent of Luis Vuitton it would not matter much. At present Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the best places for these investors and America knows this. They have oil to fall back on and as I see it, no matter how the AI bubble bursts, they can retrench this into service roles and data acquisition roles. That is what Europe fears, American held data used to safely drip the economy to health using IP values from everywhere. And this is not the first time I wrote about this in ‘That one flaky promise’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/01/29/that-one-flaky-promise/) where I saw the dangers of America ‘annexing’ whatever it had and that was BEFORE AI and the bubble it created. I swear that danger almost 4 years ago. That setting will implode the rest of what America thought they would have. As I see it, a strong setting of IP and storage of it could help both Saudi Arabia and the UAE (a likely preferred choice) to evade to (those who can afford it) because when this bubble goes it will wipe out whatever most of us hold for dear and those who had their patents in the US. This is mere (intense) speculation, but do you think that this American administration will not do this? It had no trouble with tariffs and the setting of THEIR ‘big beautiful America’ at the expense of everything. They even tried to make Canada and Greenland part of America. I don’t think so and as I see it, when that bubble goes America is pretty much done for. All because Americans believe that Cash is King. So their salespeople live by the dollar and will waste it at a moments notice for their personal needs. Should you doubt that please watch Inside Job and see what they did there. I reckon that Iceland is now getting back on its feet al will enjoy the view on the impact crater that Wall Street leaves behind. 

I need to end this with a word of caution. This was base on an opinion piece, so as that is wrong, so is my view. But I based it on the data I had available and the prediction that I saw in 2022, so there was no AI bubble at that time. So is my view more accurate now? That cannot be said and it is based on what desperate people do and as I see it America is about to become really desperate. So enjoy your coffee today, which I will do also and I will assist a young woman named Aloy help her defeat some machines. They were not Microsoft products, so they should work. Now lets make them a lot less functional and that Deathbringer looks like a right monster.

Have a great day and try not to get too depressed by the not so good news I am partially bringing.

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August 15, 2024 · 17:40

Streamers wake up

Yup that is pretty much the setting. They are all trying to reinvent the wheel and there is nothing wrong with that, in some cases the new wheel is more up to date and a good show, or movie. As I saw the second iteration of The Andromeda Strain, this time produced by Ridley the alien Scott we see a new version that is ‘up to date’ with the technology settings, the story makes sense and it is a great story to watch in two parts. So as I was brooding on different matters, I was reminded to a good movie from 1987 with the one and only Jon Cryer. The movie was called 

Hiding Out. Now this is no Oscar winning material, still the movie was thoroughly entertaining and I think it deserves a remake. 

The main reason for the remake is that with all the digital currency scams, a remake is nearly essential and Netflix better wake up, or someone else will get to it. So in comes the actress of choice (Anna Taylor Joy). 

She has something in common with an actor like Tom Cruise. You see she could appear like a teenager until she turns 50 and in light of the setting of Hiding out, especially in a high school, this matters. 

The story (roughly) goes that she fell in love with a bitcoin broker and the setting is that he is the guilty foe and a lot of bitcoins go missing, more than enough that he gets himself killed. The last thing he does to ‘save’ his hide he lays blame on the actress of choice and as such she suddenly gets chased and she does not know why. Het only escape is to hide in a place where no one would seem to know her. As she loved her summers with her aunt in Nova Scotia. Her aunt is now dead, but she remembers the place and she is off to Nova Scotia and as such she hides as an international Uruguayan student in the St. Francis Xavier University. She enters as student in journalism and communication. 

In the meantime they are still hunting her but no one knows where to look for her. We get an appearance make over in the beginning when she gets to Nova Scotia (also the one link how they find her). So as the new student she lies low and tries to figure things out. In the meantime her office becomes aware of the $2,000,000,000 loss through theft (TV item) and the death of her lover. Now we get the FBI involved. The story goes that the FBI through digital CCTV traces get a possible handle on her (the train station where she vanished) and someone at the FBI blabs that to the criminals. Her tracks are lost in Saint-Lambert. She took the bus to Antigonish. The bus ride gets us some moments of her past life. 

She is relatively safe for now. And as she ‘embraces’ her anonymity and the new life she is making for herself she (of course) falls in love with one of the teachers and as she focusses on journalism she gains new skills in finding things out, more importantly she finds evidence that the bitcoin company seemingly have been white washing currency. In the meantime, she interns at a newspaper and one of the photographers takes a liking to her. When he takes a snapshot for a column where she is placed in the paper as the new intern, the links are found and the FBI goes after her, as well as the criminals. We now get that the FBI is after her, with criminals close on her too. I still need to think of a few sidelines where she has had positive influence through journalism, like a blue tuna fishing boat (water scenes) or something like that. 

In the end we see that her locket (an heirloom from her mother) contained an SD card with the currency encryption which is still in an account that no one could find or reach because it was encrypted. The SD card was the key to unlocking it. At the end the FBI catches the mole, retrieves the mob money and find the evidence that clearly identifies her previous boyfriend as the guilty party, the movie ends with her changing her life to Antigonish with her teacher. Now, wouldn’t it be nice to give Doug Al-Maini (professor of philosophy at said university) that role? I am a corruptor of the young and innocent (so sue me). And it might make a nice setting for Antigonish. 

It’s all I thought of in less than 2 hours. Netflix eat your heart out. Anyway use this idea as you see fit, I think it would also be nice to give Jon Cryer a nice small role here, to link the old to the new.

Have a great day and try the Nova Scoria Tuna today.

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July 1, 2024 · 10:51

The changes to a Digital Currency

I was alerted to a story on https://www.cointribune.com/en/saudi-arabia-joins-the-wrong-blockchain/ stating ‘Saudi Arabia joins the wrong Blockchain…’, well that is merely a matter of opinion. You see the CBDC (aka mBridge) is a digital currency that is controlled by banks. It is under control by China (read Tencent) and is a system that runs next to swift. It could rival it over the next few years and moreover could overtake swift too (speculative view by the writer, aka me). The involvement of Saudi Arabia implies “The kingdom’s integration into the BRICS club is far from trivial. Member countries are clearly expressing their intention to purge the dollar from their exchanges. The arrival of the Saudis could mean that Saudi oil exports to China could one day be conducted via the mBridge blockchain, in yuan”, implies is as I word it, but the implications as quoted is the first major dent into the ‘settings’ that could take a lot of Wall Street out of the frame, again this is purely speculative. Another source, Forbes gives us (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/08/24/bitcoin-vs-cbdcs-analyzing-universal-access-in-digital-currency/) ‘Bitcoin Vs. CBDCs: Analyzing Universal Access In Digital Currency’, which they gave us last August. They also give us “The digital cash revolution was spearheaded first by bitcoin and then by other cryptocurrencies, which has led to the birth of Central Bank Digital Currencies.” This is followed up by “it’s the rise of CBDCs and cryptocurrencies that may represent the most transformative phase in this evolution.” I think that is the larger issue. I don’t trust Bitcoin, not because of the digital setting, but the picture that it is not supported by any coins, or gold make it a virtual currency. ‘Everyone’ is on board for what they think it will bring. But the larger picture becomes that a virtual setting could from today ($62,730.9037) and when it goes to $50,184.7258 tomorrow (worst case scenario) there is nothing stopping it, moreover I reckon that all these pensioners hoping to get rich of this, this downfall will result in lots of pensioners ending with nothing. That was the fear I alway had. This is why I do not trust it. The CBDC (mBridge) is as said cemented in “the country’s central bank.” Forbes also gives us on the of the 23rd of June (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/06/23/cross-border-cbdc-focused-project-mbridge-moves-forward/) “For more than three years, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been working on a cross-border central bank digital currency (CBDC) project known as mBridge. In a nutshell, the project aims to improve efficiency, speed and transparency in cross-border payments.” It is the transparency that matters and the fact that it is under control of a nations central bank. This implies that banks are ultimately responsible for issues, with Bitcoin this is anyones guess. The text “MBridge recently took an important step forward with the completion of its minimal viable product (MVP) stage and the decision by Saudi Arabia to join the project.” You see this means that mBridge would be getting support from places like Aramco and China with their Yuan. This puts the USA on a slippery slope (commercial wise) if the oil dollar pushed to nowhere, the Yuan will gain strides of upgrades. Additional we get “According to China’s Digital Currency Research Institute (DCRI), mBridge transactions take seven seconds and cut cross-border payment costs by 50%.” I believe that the 7 second delay is only applicable to cross border issues and I do believe that this is a temporary delay (before the first upgrade a time upgrade), the reducing of cost by 50% would be cheered by all sides of the equation (probable with the exception of Wall Street). The article ends with “but risks to the initiative will rise sharply if it becomes seen as part of broader U.S.-China competition” a political setting, but as that rises the USA (and optionally the EU) will lose a lot more. For the most the people are fed up with the American bully tactics. It is hurting their pocket. Consider that a decade ago where everyone copied the narrative “Washington officials began warning of Huawei’s ability to embed spying capabilities in its gear” but never was any EVIDENCE presented by anyone. We get setting like ‘could’ and ‘the possibility arises’’. The former director of German intelligence stated to Deutsche Welle that they didn’t understand that technology. So where is the evidence? America presented a case that was settled a decade earlier. China has issues with the US and EU. This is their shot across the bough. And it is one that matters. With billions in revenue gained, with the BRICS setting and with a setting that could replace the oil dollar with the Yuan, Wall Street would lose a lot. So whilst the American administration begs for cheaper oil, all whilst they pretty much shot themselves in the foot. 2025 and 2026 might prove disastrous for both the US and EU. The EU will accept the mBridge solution a lot earlier than the US would and when the Bitcoin loses 20% or more in value. Many pensions will be reduced to zero. It was the risk of a decentralised system with no foundation in any bank or in a commodity like gold, but that is merely my point of view.

Enjoy today, it is still yesterday in Vancouver and Toronto. 

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May 18, 2023 · 12:11

The house wins

Yes, that has been the case since before WW1. In gambling the house wins and I got an interesting surprised served up by the BBC. It was the article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-65610851) where we see ‘Cryptocurrency: Treat investing as gambling, MPs say’ OK, that was a little unexpected, but when you think of it not the weirdest step to make. We see this with “The risks posed by crypto were “typical of those that exist in traditional financial services and it’s financial services regulation – rather than gambling regulation – that has the track record in mitigating them”, a Treasury official told BBC News.” I can get behind that. Lets not forget that crypto has no gold backing like currency, so not only is it a gamble, but in many cases it is a long shot at best. There is however a consideration we need to have and it is seen with “Gambling helpline charity GamCare told the BBC that, in the past two years, it had heard from more than 300 people who said they were struggling with investing in cryptocurrency and other forms of online financial markets.” It is seen with ‘struggling with investing’. I personally wonder that if you are struggling with an investment, then why invest in it to begin with, but that might be me. 

The plot thickens when you see “He said he had lost about £150,000 investing in crypto, including money he had borrowed, and that checking his phone to see how the market had moved had become an obsession. “There was no break at all, I was just I was on my phone constantly watching it and just couldn’t sleep,” he recalled.” So one person borrows to invest? I would not do that to buy stock in reliable options like Tesla or IBM, as such I will never ever do it in something fleeting as digital dollars. That is an orgasm more fleeting than trying to get one from a hooker with aids. I do not now, not ever trust digital currency. I accept that there are moments that this is the one payment option, but it will only exists until I get to the nearest bank to convert it to something more reliable. As such there is a rather nasty breach here. I would never invest in it and I do get that some do. And to be honest if I had the money in 2010 I might have bought 5-10 Bitcoins and that would have set me right, but I do not trust any digital currency and I still see all these ads come past with the statement ‘How rich would you be now if you had bought even one bitcoin in 2010?’ Yet that ship sailed and when you consider the grifters and BS artists trying to get you on digital trades, the idea to treat it as gambling makes a lot of sense to me and with gambling comes a lot more oversight. 

In the end, I have no idea where this will go, but the idea that all these new ‘students of digital currency’, the idea that they are soon to be privy to gambling oversight does seem appealing to me. And I do get it, it might be me, I might be too old for this new currency. 

I will let you decide, have a great day. 

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August 4, 2022 · 01:13

The downward spiral

We all face it at times. It is not as negative as it sounds, for some it is a mere form of awareness. I am facing mine at present. A small defence, I damaged my left shoulder so I am best friends (sort of) with Codeine. Not enough to be dopey the dwarf, enough to not drive a tank through the streets of Sydney, so there is manoeuvring space (for me that is). My downward spiral has nothing to do with the shoulder, but with my IP. You see I am in an iterative mood. I see improvements all around me. Games that could be better, movies that are substandard, music that could be different and lets be clear, I have absolutely no idea on music. As such my mind became the ultimate critic. Now, when it comes to my own IP, especially the 5G one, it makes perfect sense to be in an iterative mode, the innovation was version 0.9 (or 1.0), I am now on version 1.3, 1.4 is a bigger adjustment for real estate, but I am trying to find a way to either include it, or consider a cheaper version just for real estate. I have not made up my mind on that yet. 

I have been on an iterative setting for a few other things too. Now for the most I have an intense hatred for iterative thinking. It never goes anywhere fast and focussing on innovation is more rewarding as well. But the person who thinks that they can come up with innovation is utterly nuts. Just like the business people that consider that true business is profit without costs, one needs the other or it is pointless ambulance chasing. 

All this started when I saw a Chinese add on android regarding a Chinese mobile game, It was not the first one I saw and then the thoughts hit me more profoundly. If I am correct, I (at that moment) figured out what Tencent is planning, if I am correct than it implies that there is a lot more coming in 2023/2024 than anyone ever suspected. I feel certain that it was a fluke, but the cogs started to connect and if it is correct it is Epic Games that opened the door. That Fortnite case is having a much larger impact. If I am correct (which is not a given) that it might set a case where Tencent is setting a new foundation towards gambling and it is all perfectly legal, yet with the Apple and Android setting of buying goods via third party providers, there will be a new case of white washing funds all over the world. I will have to find the advertisement again, but it was a rare case that I suddenly get a Chinese ad (in Chinese) and the image that flashed by gave me a worry, and weirdly enough it took me back to March 15th when I wrote ‘When is a slot machine not one?’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/15/when-is-a-slot-machine-not-one/), and I as the dreamer focussed on the 5G side of things, all whilst I should have looked in the other direction and more importantly, it puts the FBI and their peers pretty much out of business. I wrote at that time “And those not in Las Vegas will have the option to massively deal and handle in crypto currency. An outlet outside of the bank stage. An outlet that circulates currency unmonitored” my mind was with the slot machine, whilst the mention of “The slot machine was a laundromat for crypto currency” which is not something I focussed on, merely the technology, but now consider that these systems traffic between wide area networks and transfer bitcoins all over the planet, and the watching eyes of governments were blind to it. The padlocks are suddenly more than a lock, more than the stage of presentation, they are phones to other nations and they merely deal in digital data. So what does it take NOW to transfer 3,000 bitcoins unseen? Think of it, the internet is monitored, the dark-web is not to be trusted (unless you control it) but a slot machine, from a reputable vendor? There was an underlying story in Casino Royale (yes, the Bond movie) I reckon that there is a whole range of devices coming out and the nice part is that they could connect to a padlock on a slot machine. And that is merely a starting point. What happens when this takes a sharp turn to the right? I can guarantee you now that there is no government with proper protection or rules in place to stop any of this, and with a fully deployed 5G it becomes pretty much impossible to monitor it all. 

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May 25, 2022 · 22:04

Dangerous ally

That happens, we have enemies, impartial parties, friends and allies. This is how it has been for the longest of times. Yet what happens when an ally becomes a danger? That is what the CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/national-security-us-fox-news-threat-report-1.6459660) gives us with: ‘Canada should rethink relationship with U.S. as democratic ‘backsliding’ worsens: security experts’. In this article we are given ““The United States is and will remain our closest ally, but it could also become a source of threat and instability,” says a newly published report written by a task force of former national security advisers, former Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) directors, ex-deputy ministers, former ambassadors and academics. Members of the group have advised both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and former prime minister Stephen Harper.” That at least is one side. Yet the stage we see here is a little larger than we think it is. You see, we are given “There are growing transnational ties between right-wing extremists here and in the U.S., the movement of funds, the movement of people, the movement of ideas, the encouragement, the support by media, such as Fox News and other conservative media,” I believe that they are missing a few bolts in that equation. As I personally see it, the media is a lot more guilty from my point of view. At present the media is desperate for digital dollars and we see this on a global level. The best way to get this is to get clicks, as such more and more flammable materials are published, just to get clicks. No matter what the consequences are. In this I give you the guardian who gave us (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/22/rightwing-us-pundit-candace-owens-compares-australian-government-to-the-taliban-calling-it-a-tyrannical-police-state-) last October. There we are given “Rightwing US pundit Candace Owens compares Australian government to the Taliban, calling it a ‘tyrannical police state’” In that article we are given “Outspoken conservative political commentator Candace Owens has suggested the US military invade Australia in order to free its people “suffering under a totalitarian regime” while drawing comparisons to Hitler, Stalin and the Taliban.” As such, lets relabel Candace Owens as ‘Black Putin’, with her telling the people “When do we deploy troops to Australia? When do we invade Australia and free an oppressed people who are suffering under a totalitarian regime? When do we spend trillions of dollars to spread democracy in Australia?” Wasn’t that the setting Vladimir Putin used to go into the Ukraine? How is that going?

A Commonwealth nation that has shown it has Freedom of speech, freedom of religion (a lot more than the US has), it has democratic elections and so far after decades, I have yet to see a police state in action in Australia. So which media asked this Black Putin for evidence of a police state? Which media asked this Black Putin for evidence of oppression in Australia and what evidence is there of a totalitarian regime? She is ‘tolerated’ by the media as she flames stuff, she brings in the digital dollars. That is how I personally see it.

So in the report (see below) we are also given “Yet Canadians and their governments rarely take national security seriously. Taking shelter under the American umbrella has worked well for us. This has made us complacent and paved the way for our neglect of national security.” This is true and as the US falters the pressure on Canada increases. I did make mention of something similar to this, but not to this degree and it was a while back. Yet the danger station remains, when the US collapses (which is still possible) the people will try to find a safe haven, and Canada will top their list. Consider the idea that Canada suddenly needs to deal with 5-15 million Americans trying the collapse in their own country, Canada is not ready, more important. Canadian National security is nowhere near ready for that nightmare scenario. In addition, as I personally see it, the Putin’s of America (black or not) will gladly throw oil on that fire to get more digital dollars out of all of it. 

And the Ukraine adds to that setting with “Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, with its deliberate targeting of civilians and underlying threat of nuclear war, has jolted even the most sanguine of western democracies into thinking anew about security. Ahead lies a period of escalating tensions with no clear end in sight” as such the Commonwealth needs to take steps, serious steps towards keeping its territories safe, any way they can. Canada has of course the largest problem. It has 8890km of border with the US and there is no way that this can ever be kept safe or untrodden, so other means will be needed to keep Canada safe. What they are, your guess is as good as mine. But this will come to blows there is no doubt in my mind. Even now we see more and more stories and articles about the decline of the US, but they are trivialised, even the ones from the Pentagon. The power players are all in the believe that it will not happen, but they have their millions safely in a zero tax haven like Dubai, Bahama’s, Monaco or Cayman Islands. When things go south fast they take personal leave get to where they need to be and resign their posts with loads of cash safely tucked away. When that escalated the people will start running and those without cash will try to get anywhere they can and that group is a lot larger than you think. Last year all these people who got into Bitcoin, because it was such a safe bet, what they bought at 87K is now a mere 41K, they lost over 50% and when it goes from bad to worse the US will become close to unliveable. And that is what Canada needs to fear, almost more than any lone wolf terrorist. In all this, with all the things we see 2022 is the first year where several players need to consider that America has become a dangerous ally. It is not the military that Canada needs to fear, it is a senseless 329,000,000 people all trying to find some safe haven and the group that is in poverty and the elderly pushed into poverty is large and growing larger by the day. When we consider “The official poverty rate in 2020 was 11.4 percent, up 1.0 percentage point from 10.5 percent in 2019.” We think it is not that serious, but the last two years destroyed savings due to the cost of living under Covid and Bitcoins value for millions of people. There is no way that they US has accurate data at present and that is not on them, but I reckon (speculated estimation) that it is closer to 13.5% at present. As such there is a chance that as per tomorrow 4.4 million Americans will seek shelter any place they can and a sizeable chunk of those 4.4 million will no longer believe that the US can offer that. Even now with unemployment numbers at a global all time low, too many will consider the ‘get out now’ routine. Because if the US has worker issues, than Canada might have them too. Not the worst thought to have, but when millions have that thought at the same time, Canada will face a larger problem and that is before the actual national security problems stir their ugly head. I believe that the Commonwealth nations need to unite and we need to do this now, not tomorrow. Things might get pretty hairy soon enough and not being ready just doesn’t slice the cake, not in this day and age.

natsec_report_gspia_may2022Download

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March 15, 2022 · 06:06

When is a slot machine not one?

Well, as dreams go, this was not the weirdest one. Yet I do not know where I was. There was a river near where I was and we were running from a gang of abusive Irishman. On the run is the wrong word, more getting away from. The 3 men around me were laughing, howling actually. I was worried on what was going on, as I never understood what was actually the case. We arrive on a boat, optionally a ferry and we got to the ‘staff only’ place. An officer (not the captain) greeted us and welcomed us. One of the man walked over to a slot machine, the slot machine was bright gold and red. It had all the elements of a slot machine and it also had a padlock, a weird theatrical stretched padlock. The padlock outside had a bottom that could be rotated away. When that happened part of the sleeve could be slid down and now several lines with numbers become visible. The bottom of the slot machine fitted a credit card, some kind of crypto card. The slot machine also fitted USB-C sticks. The slot machine was a laundromat for crypto currency. And let’s face it, in todays world, who raises an eye on seeing a slot machine? I think my ‘associates’ had stolen a decent amount of crypto currency, which they laundered through the slot machines. I have no idea for how much, but the numbers on the padlock made them really happy. I was still wondering why the left stacked heel of my shoe kept breaking off. A weird non connected thought that bothered me. 

But behind this all, there are thousands who are trying, converting or dealing in Crypto and with the Russian blocks, the will be seeking another valve. And those not in Las Vegas will have the option to massively deal and handle in crypto currency. An outlet outside of the bank stage. An outlet that circulates currency unmonitored. A stage that some governments will dread and object to, but until the slot machines are identified, taking in consideration that these machines can alter in shape and size, alter in appearance. What happens when it looks like an ATM? Like a coin exchange machine or a food dispenser? The monitoring groups cannot keep up now, what happens when these iterations are added to the flock?

I can only add Happy Geese time

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February 24, 2022 · 06:29

The stage I cannot see

If you have seen my articles, you see that there is very little, basically almost none on the Bitcoin. I do not know Bitcoin, I do not trust bitcoin and when it collapses you lose everything you invested. It is not secured by Gold, not supported by banks and that list goes on. From November 8th 2021 the price was $91,150, on January 22nd 2022 the price was $48,800. As such over a period of less then 3 months its price was reduced by 46%, optionally wiping out the retirement funds of all these wealth seekers. This is not negatively meant. Some do it because they are desperate, their retirement funds were already diminished, driven by speed marketing on social media, after all the media advertisement making the weak approach “If you bought 10 bitcoin in 2010 you would have made $500K by now, how much could you make over the next 10 years?”, mind you nothing illegal is done here, it is merely the application of imaginary wealth appealing to the desperate. 

Could I be wrong?
Absolutely! That does not mean that I will trust the Bitcoin (ever), and if consultancy is paid in bitcoin, I would transfer it to normal currency immediately. So as Reuters gives us ‘Bitcoin’s true colours shine in stampede to safety’ (at https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/bitcoins-true-colours-shine-stampede-safety-2022-02-23/) we see “as the Russia-Ukraine crisis deepened on Tuesday read more , the price of bitcoin fell as much as 5% from last week’s close, to around $36,348. The decline marks a notable contrast to the rally triggered in traditional safe havens like U.S. and German government bonds, or gold, whose price on Tuesday hit its highest since June 2021”, this makes sense to me. Gold is something we can touch, German bonds less so, but Germany has a massive manufacturing and resource options. So it makes sense to me. As such the statement “Volatility can therefore bring big rewards when the cryptocurrency rises. It also means outsized losses when it falls”, yes that makes sense, marketing sets the view to the positive whilst trivialising, or not mentioning the dangers and at present I personally believe that dangers are seen that remind me of the great depression (1929-1939), now one event does not make for a nuclear winter, neither does two or three, yet the stag is getting more and more like the stage that drove the great depression. Unfair trade events, connected triggers like we see in “The Eurekahedge Crypto-Currency Hedge Fund Index, for example, which tracks fund managers focused on decentralised digital money, fell about a fifth in January, its biggest decline since November 2018. It was a tough month for hedge funds in general, but a broader industry benchmark declined only about 1% during the same month”, this seems to reflect on events that we saw in the great depression, but you would be wrong, I would be wrong too. In the great depression there was a large shift, but it was based on a few local events. This time around the events are global and they trigger global events, the impact could be a hell of a lot larger and the impact could be felt a lot longer, but that would be pure speculation from my side and a side that has NO ECONOMIC degrees. I create stories and I create IP, the critical mind is required in all three fields as is creativity. It allows me to see past the normal view.

As I always saw it the bitcoin is not a sanctuary, more often it is not even a shelter, or a simple rain shield, that being said, it could be one hell of a ride for thrill seekers and I get that. 5 years ago the Bitcoin was $1,650, today it is $52,260. If you could invest 5 years ago and you are willing to consider 100% loss it would be a thrill ride that made you a winner. But the other way around? It is not out of consideration, what was $90,000 in 2021, will that be higher or lower in 2026? There is no way to tell and some thrill seekers are willing to make that bet and that is their right, but there should be better protection for the desperate. You see, I accept that no one broke laws, the ‘investment seekers’ are allowed to do what they do, I get that. But what is next? Take a chance on being a drug mule? Transporting a box for a party? That is the dangers a lot of places are facing and in this time and age, that is too big a danger. Exploitation is seen everywhere, there is a sucker born every minute. It is their own fault to a larger degree, but does that mean we should remain inactive? 

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May 17, 2021 · 10:21

What makes us fall?

We are feeling all kinds of weird at times, we fall for someone, for something, and we also trip at times. These things happen and more often than not we have ourselves to blame, but is that the case all the time? In this I refer to a BBC article 3 days ago called ‘Victim of ‘Elon Musk’ Bitcoin scam loses home deposit’, first of all, the scam used the name ‘Elon Musk’ the man himself has no dealings here. But it was part of the article that woke me up. It is “Ms Bushnell, an investor in cryptocurrency, spotted an item on a website that appeared to use BBC News branding, claiming Mr Musk, the billionaire boss of the Tesla car firm, would pay back double the sum of any Bitcoin deposit”, now in my case the part where I see ‘pay back double the sum’ would raise all the red flags, but it is “an item on a website”, not merely “appeared to use BBC News branding” that got my eyes. 

There are two elements here, the first is that more and more advertisements (and scams) rely way too heavily on ‘deceptive conduct’ and the law has been dragging its heels here for 2-3 years on drowning that issue. Stronger laws against deceptive conduct needs to be there, not some political loon relying on some complaints department, but laws that give power to the law to chastise the advertisement agency that allowed for this with fines in excess of £1,000,000. I reckon that these people will clean up their acts when the fine equals a quarter of their revenue. Do you think it is overreaching? I myself thwarted 5 attempts to get scammed last week, and I believe it is getting worse, with Indian developers learning that for a mere investment of $250 they could reap $250,000 matters are getting worse and it needs to be halted, or at least diminished by a hell of a lot. In this I am willing to point the finger at Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and optionally Amazon as well. Some advertisements should not be allowed to continue. 

Even when we see the Guardian giving us (some time ago) “investigation shows apparent ease of promoting fraudulent services online”, we see the lack of actions by all. They made these AI claims, so use your AI (actually AI does not yet exist), but there needs to be a much larger level of checks and even as the BBC watered down the stage towards “spotted an item on a website”, which due to a lack of presentable evidence makes sense, the setting is not all towards the victim. Yet in that light, If I had a real option to double your money, do you think I would go open, or go to my best friends? If I had an option that there was a 100% chance of a 100% gain, do you think I would give this to strangers, or to close friends? Consider that question when you go out and spend (read: donate) your money on something that is without evidence and without verification. 

And there is a reason to blame big tech in this instance, it is seen in “The fake site is still currently online”, this implies that there was advertisement, there is a trail and I reckon there is a need for action and an option for action. You do not need a big degree in IT (I do have one) and we do know that there are ways to mask one’s digital identity, but wonder should those with a masked digital identity be allowed to advertise? 

The article gives more questions than answers, but that is not a bad thing. Getting the questions out into the open optionally raises the bar or perception and if we get that bar high enough, my peers in the House of Lords will wake up and demand action, which gets us at least part of the way there. 

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January 9, 2019 · 13:07

Hezbollah Plus

As we look at the things we think are wrong (like UK housing), the things we know are wrong (Hezbollah in Yemen) and the things we claim are wrong, we are confronted with the things that are not making any headlines in the international news. We see a larger absence of Houthi transgressions and events that do get covering in the Middle East and in some local news procrastinators, but on the larger scale, there is an absence, I would almost as far as going with an orchestrated absence.

From my point of view, I see the ugly head of facilitation rearing the news on several levels. Now, to be fair, there is a larger issue, there is a lot of innuendo and no evidence, yet that did not stop the press pushing non-stop circulation over the innuendo regarding the cadaver of Jamal Khashoggi, did it?

As for Iran getting less and less visibility as it funds Hezbollah, that might be the impact of America attacking Iran at every turn and that would stop the media from paying attention as well, yet there is a larger danger in play and we need to take a minute to realise the danger in play. In my case it is slightly easier as I am fluent in half a dozen languages, so I can compare the different sources in its native shape, and seeing that there is a growing issue and the media remains unaware, whether that is intentional or not cannot be proven.

That image gets a new level, a colourful 3d version when we take a tour via these publications. For this exercise we start at the Jewish News Syndicate (hardly the most unbiased source I grant you), yet when we start here (at https://www.jns.org/the-terror-threat-of-iran-and-hezbollah-in-europe/), we might see “Iran uses a wide network of the IRGC’s: al-Qods Force, the Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS) and proxies like Hezbollah. Iran has an organized terrorist network established in Europe and the people who were arrested in connection with the terror plots lived and worked in Germany, Austria, Belgium, France, Norway and Denmark“, in addition we see “Despite the many terrorist attacks carried out by Hezbollah around the world and on European soil, so far most of the European Union countries have not put Hezbollah on its list of terrorist organizations“, these are mere printed facts, they are not that interesting to most media, it does not have the sexy flair of some Kardashian article, but not remaining aware is actually dangerous. You see, that list had two missing elements. The elements are Sweden and the Netherlands. The second one is immensely important as it has several options that lead directly to the UK, and from the Netherlands most of the western European nations are just hours away.

There have been issues in a few ways over time and in Sweden that seems to be limited to the Akalla region (outer suburb of Stockholm) where we see a dangerous mix of refugees and immigrants. This is no longer contained to Akalla, they are now growing in Kista, Sundbyberg and Solna, covering a larger part of Northwest Stockholm, a stage where optional and aspiring Shia extremists can move around reasonably safe and secure and there is every indication that there are numerous Hezbollah sympathisers there too. I remain with the word ‘sympathisers’, as there is no clear evidence that these are either lone wolves or actual active extremists. What is optionally an issue is that Stockholm has an amazing internet infrastructure; the people there tend to have better internet then the people in a Microsoft building. To illustrate that, in 2001, I had a home consumer internet connection in Kista with 100Mb lines, whilst most businesses in Europe could hardly get 10Mb, this gives these people a much larger advantage to spread the digital image of their groups and that is exactly what we have seen in the last 5-10 years. This does not prove that it is happening from Sweden, even as some sources give us: “In fact, not only is Hezbollah already engaged in plots in Europe, it dispatches dual Lebanese-European citizens (from Sweden, France, etc.) to carry them out. And yet, recent actions against Hezbollah by the United States, the Arab League, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and the Organization for the Islamic Conference have not led to increased Hezbollah plots against the countries involved. As for UN peacekeepers, the U.S. State Department has documented at least two instances where Hezbollah has already targeted European peacekeepers in Lebanon. Those lines have been crossed, the question now is what—if anything—will be done about it?” (at https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/debating-the-hezbollah-problem) we see compelling, yet not completely convincing evidence in play. It gets to be a little more interesting when we slice and dice darkweb data and add the bitcoin events that can be traced (to some degree), there is a larger stage in play, but we are up against a clever opponent (claiming that they are not is exceedingly stupid) and it seems that there is growing support from Germany, especially in conjunction with anti-Semitic events.

It goes further than the information that sources like Matthew Levitt, Fromer-Wexler Fellow and director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute. It becomes a really useable filter on events when we dig into the Dutch parts that involve Nasr el Damanhoury. You see, we might all react in outrage and there is plenty of indication, yet there is no evidence, not one part that has valued and valid use. The Dutch Newspaper ‘Algemeen Dagblad’ gave us (at https://www.ad.nl/rotterdam/bewijs-dan-eens-dat-wij-oproepen-tot-de-jihad~ab1cf89d/) gives us: “The Former School bought for €1.7 milllion, was bought on behalf of a German foundation with funds coming from Qatar“. There are all the flags, all the indication, yet not one bit of real intelligence, evidence or reason to act. And in this both the Dutch AIVD and German BND are able, well-educated and driven towards success and so far they have gone tits up in all this (for now). The Dutch situation is even more frustrating as everything points towards a very temperate environment, what some would call an optional tactic that is pure long term, and as such finding evidence of wrongdoing seems to be a foregone conclusion towards failure, of course this also optionally indicates that Nasr el Damanhoury could be completely innocent, at the most, the indication is limited to the fact that he might only be guilty of association with people of interest in all this. Yet the September 2018 event in the Netherlands, where we get “The suspects came from Arnhem, Rotterdam, and villages close to those two cities“, we get an optional link to certain events in the Rotterdam area of ‘Katendrecht’ where there are numerous of refugees and Middle Eastern immigrants, allowing optional or aspiring members of Hezbollah vanish into the background. There are a lot of indications, yet there is no actual or factual evidence to a prosecutable degree. Yet there have been a large amount of indicators that should not be ignored and with ‘Bolstered by Iran, Hezbollah ‘capable of destruction on a whole new scale’‘ (at https://www.france24.com/en/20181219-iran-israel-hezbollah-tunnels-missiles-lebanon-syria-nasrallah) we see: “A key element behind this is the fact that “Hezbollah is now way better equipped, so it has the capabilities to create destruction on a completely different scale from what we saw in 2006,” added Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East specialist at Chatham House think-tank and Regent’s University London, in an interview with FRANCE 24“, we are merely introduced to the concept of optional danger, which is nowhere near the stage of ‘panic now, we ran out of coffee‘. Yet when we consider “The Lebanese armed group has also played a major role in keeping Tehran’s ally, President Bashar al-Assad, in power over the course of the Syrian conflict, participating in decisive victories over rebel groups, such as the 2013 Al-Qusayr offensive and the two 2016 Aleppo offensives” and we add “this increase in capability has taken place because of Hezbollah’s role in the Syrian conflict, where the Iran-backed group has its largest deployment outside of Lebanon (between 7,000 to 10,000 fighters) and is fighting alongside pro-Assad forces. According to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Hezbollah has increased its weapons reserves, better trained its members and improved its tactical and operational skills during the conflict” (source: Al Arabiya) we are now left with the state as Syria changes and as such there is an increase pool of Hezbollah members moving towards refugee centres, staying off the grid and preparing for activities in Europe. With the anti-Semitic support they get from Germans (read: Neo Nazi’s) there is an increased pressure on intelligence gathering and data comprehension required to make sense of all the information available. I am not talking about what the media gives us; it is a different stage of darkweb and crypto currency events. Over the last year we have seen “The Cyber-Desk of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) located a website named “isiscoins.com” on which these coins are sold. The site is presented as an official site of the Islamic State’s Ministry of Finance containing the coins minted by the Islamic State, in accordance with the specifications described in the film, “Return of the Gold Dinar”. Sets of seven coins are offered for sale on the site: two gold coins, three silver coins and two copper coins, at a cost of $950 per set, to be paid for using Bitcoin virtual currency“. This is not some sympathiser phase; this is recruiting and amassing funds for something much larger. The setup is set to remain invisible for a much longer time, and the methods of identification are close to useless at present. So when we see: “In summary, sporadic evidence of terrorists’ use of digital currency has been in existence since 2012 and there is no doubt that in recent months this trend has been growing and taking shape and now holds a prominent presence online. From the cases reviewed above, it is clear that the use of virtual currency is prevalent among activists at various levels, including the organization itself (the Islamic State), support groups and propaganda (Haq Web site, Akhbar al-Mulsilimin website, Jahezona group) and individuals (Bahrun Naim and Zoobia Shahnazi)” we cannot hide behind the statement ‘one is not the other‘ and in equal measure we can no longer rely on trivialisation of ‘six of one and half a dozen of the other‘, the truth of the second statement is that we have 12 angry men, deciding to become jury and executioners for whatever their cause is in Europe and that stage is growing not merely towards the UK, they are starting to be active all over Europe, there is enough indication that this is happening, yet finding the evidence who are the real extremists and who are merely advocating for Islam is not an easy task, as the Extremists are becoming more adapt in wearing sheep’s clothing, the task of finding the evidence merely becomes harder and harder.

That part was proven in January 2018 when the ICT (International Institute for Counter-Terrorism) could no longer test the Hezbollah CoinGate link. The result of the tests was that “the link no longer directs to CoinGate. Instead, the link redirects to an internal page on the site that was created on December 7, 2017 and every click on the site provides a different Bitcoin address“, it is speculative, yet there are enough indicators that Russian Organised Crime (or optionally Russian entrepreneurial criminal wannabe’s), as well as German Neo-Nazi’s are getting their 30 coins of silver facilitating for Hezbollah and their presented acts against the State of Israel and Jews wherever possible. I merely think that they are ways to push forward the Hezbollah agenda in every conceivable direction and until we get a better way to track these money trails most progress is hopelessly overestimated. You see, this is not new, this is not starting now. There are Bitcoin receipts going back to August 2016 and it is a clean method to disperse $100 million dollar via Iranian support all over Europe, and there are clear indications that a chunk is going in these directions.

As a final part (a badly translated text) gives us: “The campaign to collect donations in Bitquin: Below the title of the article is written (marked with orange): “Click to contribute to the site In Bitquin – no donation from the Zakat funds “(Akhbar al-Muslimin, November 27, 2017)“, their digital presence is growing, even in the streets and for now there is no clear plan of attack, for the mere reason that there is no visibility on how to attack Hezbollah in Europe. You see, ISIS, IS, Hezbollah and Hamas are all using similar tactics, they are teaching each other capabilities on the Darkweb, that if not for a lot more is what we learn from Canadian Journalist Martin Himmel. He gives us: “if authorities clamp down on Bitcoin, terror groups and criminal gangs move on to other crypto currencies, like Zcash and Monero. “It’s a constant catch up game,”” and the local authorities are unable to catch up, the resources are not there, so as players like Hezbollah are increasing their footprint all over Europe, we see that the danger is not merely that they are active and extreme, they are now outmatching the Europeans in cash and resources to a much larger degree making the dangers in Europe more and more evident. My views are not merely supported by Aisha Ahmad, a scholar from the University of Toronto. With “a strange mix of ideologues and hyper-materialists coming together for mutual interest” we see the reality where those needing cash for whatever they want are facilitating for the needs of these extremists. The Neo Nazi’s might be the clearest example, and they are not the only one, not even close.

So as Europe will at some point this year face at least one event involving Hezbollah Plus, we will see the impact and we will also be confronted with a system that is not ready, not educated and largely unable to counter such events. The technology is not up to speed and the technological knowledge of the opposition to Hezbollah is barely keeping up, not to mention laughingly understaffed.

This is soon no longer the stage of ‘bringing a knife to a gunfight’, it is staging the Neanderthal against a Gatling gun at 400 passes and it is not Hezbollah at that point who is the Neanderthal in all this. The difference is getting towards being that extreme.

So, when was the last time that Extremists had a technological advantage over governments? If there is even one example, how did that end?

 

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