Tag Archives: Indonesia

September 21, 2024 · 12:40

Realisations

That is the topic of the day (for me). You see, we all have our ways and that is fine, however one app that I ‘embraced’ is Conqueror. Conqueror is a walking tool that keeps you on point to a degree. To a degree is a little ‘stiff’ but as I had to endure two open heart surgeries within two months, I thought it a good idea to embrace a little more active lifestyle. Conqueror had that and it was on point for me, the gamer in me embraced it. I am now on the third Tombraider challenge and I only started this third one yesterday.

The first thing I got was a gaming stage to a real deal, a virtual challenge. And with this, besides the ‘postcards’, the maps and the videos was a setting that with every 20% done a tree was planted. As such I have been the instigator on 10 trees so far. This gave me food for thought. You see it takes 8 trees to create the oxygen that I require. The first realisation was that if there are 8 billion people at this time. We need to have 64 billion trees to keep this world oxygenated. So, how many trees in the amazon, Indonesia and other places have been cut for the need of money? There is a limit that ‘brown gold’ gets you and in a global economy. What places have this? A partial fact was given in 2015 “We estimate that there are approximately 3.041 trillion trees in the world, an entire order of magnitude greater than the previous estimate of 400.25 billion. For each person on Earth there are 422 trees”, this presumptuous estimation is rough and not entirely believable. You see, in the last decade massive lumber issues were seen in several places. And when we consider  “there are approximately 3.041 trillion trees in the world, an entire order of magnitude greater than the previous estimate of 400.25 billion.” My issue in this is that there are always issues with these numbers, that’s fine but to make an estimation issue that is off by almost 800% is too far fetched. Even being off by 100% makes the issue dubious at best. One of the estimations was not done with a clear scope in mind. So was it the first or the second? In 2023 we were given “Cattle ranching and soybean farming are colossal culprits, with cattle ranching accounting for 80% of current deforestation in the Amazon. As demand for these products increases, more and more land is cleared to make room for crops and grazing.” Which gives us the first worrying issue “80% of current deforestation in the Amazon” the issue is the percentage. This doesn’t state this as a percentage of the stated Amazon, which might have been X. Then there was the issue in Indonesia and Global Forest Watch gives us “In 2001, Indonesia had 93.8 Mha of primary forest*, extending over 50% of its land area. In 2023, it lost 292 kha of primary forest*, equivalent to 221 Mt of CO₂ emissions. 144 kha of this loss was found to be within Indonesia’s official forest land cover classes and with a patch size larger than two hectares according to MoEF-WRI analysis.” As such, when we consider these two facts, how believable was the first numbers we got? There is no other way to consider these facts then the clear notion that certain people are trying to sell us a bag of (optional corrupt) goods. As such we need to get real numbers. Because we are wasting the oxygen we desperately need to breathe. The optional thought that I have 5-10 years ago that we would have to decimate the population by 97.3%, a harsh but not unrealistic number. This gets me to the third issue, the fires of New Guinea. It was stated that from 2001 to 2023, Papua New Guinea lost 139 kha of tree cover from fires and 1.73 Mha from all other drivers of loss. So how does the initial statement of “We estimate that there are approximately 3.041 trillion trees in the world, an entire order of magnitude greater than the previous estimate of 400.25 billion. For each person on Earth there are 422 trees” with these three simple setting there is no way that this is set to any level of truth. People are optionally lulled to sleep and the danger is that soon Russia with its East Siberian taiga is now the only region remaining having the title ‘the lungs of the earth’ possible shared with the forests of Africa. Namely the rainforest of the Congo Basin, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, which run from Sierra Leone to Cameroon; the Eastern Afromontane, which span Ethiopia to Southern Africa; the Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa from Kenya to Mozambique; and the forests of Madagascar. So there are a few, however, how many trees there are remains a topic of debate. Is there any validity in the statement of “3.041 trillion trees” or “400.25 billion trees”. In both cases we are still OK, but in case of the second, I feel a lot better that I have contributed to my oxygen supply with so far 10 trees. I reckon that as these numbers are actually revisited and counted with some level of precision (Google, wake up, your Gemini talents are needed) we need to be cautious. I predict that someone will start vamping up the phrase ‘Oxygen neutral’ we might be in a lot more trouble than we think we are.

And that is merely the first issue. A second one was the challenge that I will be doing next (my fourth trial). Here I a stepping away from the gaming section to something more historically real.

It is the challenge ‘the St Francis way’. This is a virtual walk of 503km. 

It is the walk Giovanni di Pietro di Bernardone made around 1204 when he went on a pilgrimage to Rome. The part I walk was a description from Florence to the Vatican. 

It is a ‘mere’ 503km but still a decent challenge. The ‘issue’ here is that we have become complacent in our luxuries. We are too eager to resort to cars and planes (I am not against any of them), I am merely a person who walked everything with a public transportation or two on the side. Living next to the office (place of business) is no longer an option for many of us. And as Sergey Brin is not likely to fuel my retirement, walking is nearly all I have. No complaints from my side mind you. I made my own bed and I accept my larger part in this. But as this trial came across my eyes I started to consider a few things. First of all the realisation what St. Frances accepted as his goals. He was a child of an Italian father, Pietro di Bernardone dei Moriconi, a prosperous silk merchant, and a French mother, Pica di Bourlemont, about whom little is known except that she was a noblewoman originally from  the French Provence and decided to marry his ‘lady Poverty’ as a bride. I have seen many things in my life, but the wealthy accepting the life of poverty is not one of them, and in all honesty, neither would I (although I have next to nothing), so what does that matter. The setting of walking that distance is not one of contemplation, it is a drive to succeed. A very different dive Giovanni ever had. And this challenge is one that we should all have, if it was only to get into a better healthier shape.

One mere app giving me more than one train of thought. There are still a few other trials to get and to complete after this one. The Harry Potter trials (7 of them) and the Lord of the Rings with 5 trials all towards an ending at Mount Doom is a wanting achievement as a Tolkien fan. So I can proudly state (if ever) to Elijah Wood: “I did that too. Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah” OK, I admit, a little childish, but at times proud moments must be diminished by simple words to make the act (a total 1095km) a seemingly trivial one. The distance or journey didn’t matter, it is the total achievement that has meaning (be it in my own mind). 

So what did you learn (virtual or not)? Have a great Saturday, I still have almost half a day to go.

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September 6, 2024 · 13:48

As the situation changes

The Middle East Monitor made me rethink somethings that I gave the audience (read: you). In this article (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240905-saudi-issuing-licences-for-new-airlines/) we see ‘Saudi issuing licences for new airlines’ with the underlying text “A Saudi official said yesterday that the kingdom is working on issuing new licences for airlines to operate within the country. The statement was made by Abdulaziz Al-Duailej, president of the General Authority of Civil Aviation in Saudi Arabia, during his participation in the Egypt International Aviation and Space Exhibition in the Egyptian New Alamein City.” It is a setting that makes sense in a few ways. But as this setting ‘explodes’ the stages of tourism in Saudi Arabia, there is another side to consider. I raised it on the 25th of January 2024 in ‘Those happy dreams’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/01/25/those-happy-dreams/) there I have an image

You see, Saudi Arabia might be a little better off changing the service industry, or better stated the way it works. It might have made sense in older western days. Everyone wanted crumbs of the pie, but in this new stage a new system where we see one arrival and one departure, the NICE (an Israeli system) approach used in their cloud solution makes more sense and as such an Arabic designed system that has a cloud approach to tourism as well as a new ‘decentralised’ system might make a lot of sense. Consider that Saudi Arabia has the following settings either already there or coming soon. Trojena, Sindalah, Magna,  and Medina. After this we get the links with the UAE and Egypt. That is a multitude of hundreds of thousands of tourists. It will require a whole new way of doing business. Not the side of cashing in. It requires a new way of infrastructure, and Tourism is for the most replicating the same idea over and over again. It the past it made sense, in this setting it does not. They can all make claims that it is the way to do business. I disagree, this is how I saw the image in January. In the lower left the Arrival box and in the upper right the Departure box. In between there is nothing (at present), The setting is changing however. In stead of all replicating the same stage, have everyone access the same cloud, but with the difference that the customer is central in all this. The tourist will not have to register a multitude of ways, over and over again. They are in a cloud and everyone with the a booking for that tourist will have access to that tourist’s records and they can add their settings. 

In the end the tourist had to register mostly once, the rest will have the records and they can add their parts, a link in the record base with the reference to their own system where they can keep their records secure. There is still works that needs doing, but I had years in mind to evolve this antiquated system. Now as we see that “Saudi saw a surge in tourism in 2023, with around 27 million international visitors spending over 100 billion riyals, while domestic tourist numbers reached 77 million.” A new tourist recording stage made by Saudi’s and it is all in local hands. A new system that caters to the Arabians, and those who do not want it, will have to find another way to make money. As this setting gets developed we see that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and optionally Egypt get a new system with the tourist in the centre. In the second sight is that intelligent LLM models will be catering to the specific person, the data will be more up to date and more to the point of the tourist. I foresee that this new system will break borders in many ways and whilst some will sell an ‘AI’ system for the tourist, whilst merely braking even for the caterer in that system. This system will actually have one tourist in mind. The one it is catering too. I came to that conclusion over 6 months ago. Now that the borders are moved to include millions more tourists, this system will be clearly superior as it caters to that person, or that family in a stage that it aligns all new places. 

As I see the article in the Middle East Eye, the situation I drew came up again. A setting that is drawn from the tourist, not the hotel or flight event. There are still hurdles. Like how can this system align with other systems? My question becomes ‘How can we make things easier for the tourist?’ You see, in the next 10 years we can either address this or se the tourist go the path of comfort and that is where this approach can make a change for thousands of tourists. The centre piece in this is that the tourist is on a vacation, they want comfort and that can be approached by giving them a different ride towards their initial destination and beyond.

You see, the larger tourist group wants a unique view on their entire trip and Saudi Arabia (as well as the UAE) are delivering it to a lager degree. Now it is time to set the stage to a complete overhaul and 2030 is a mere 8 years away. If Saudi Arabia gets to have the other venues as well (Olympics to name but one) it will have to consider this larger change now or face near inhumane pressure points on several occasions. You can address the venue on its own or cater to a system that can reduce pressures all over. It would also call in a national call centre that takes care of all venues from a few points. I see opportunities all over, but I realise that there would be initial design flaws (from my side). It becomes a larger issue when some will see reason to drown this idea as they see a failing revenue point for them. In this I call to a place like Ticketmaster. How hard was their start until venues started to trust their setting? It could be a genuine opportunity for Saudi Arabia to guide and light the way to countries like the China, UAE, Egypt and Indonesia. And when more countries align to that setting the tourist industry gets a real overhaul optionally gaining more and more countries to that way of thinking.

Have a great day.

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July 28, 2024 · 11:24

As the idea erupted

This happens, we do one thing and suddenly an idea erupts. In this case I was thinking of the second script that I am generating in Final Draft.

It was a setting that made me think for a moment. And this setting came from the days of the Commodore Amiga. I even was working an reset emulated version of the game in Macromedia Flash, just 1-2 weeks before I suddenly was made redundant. I suddenly had to relocate from Stockholm to Gorinchem when I got screwed over by my previous boss. But the thought got to me and I thought “Wouldn’t this make a great small budget movie?” An ‘almost’ one person movie with its own narration. Most of the movie in a sort of CGI and an interaction with computers and a sort of deserted place. It might not be the Hollywood stage of stories and not really for the big screen, but an idea that a streaming company might like or consider. In a stage where they have to pump billion into material, a low budget might have a much better chance. They can test an actor or actress as well as the director and director of filming in a cheaper setting. As such 3-5 people straight out of film school. I reckon that Pedro Pascal, Tom Hanks, Natalie Portman, Scarlett Johansson and Steven Spielberg would be too expensive. But there are over 50,000 actors many of them do not have a place in Bel Air, not to mention of the amount of Directors in the field. New players have a hard time getting through. So, here the speculated number race through my head and now there is a viable setting. The stage of using low budget films to create a talent pool of newbies. You know people like Pedro Pascal had a lucky break. Considering he was the man behind Napoleon Dynamite (vote for Pedro), I know I can be quirky (read: funny) at times. Still the premise remains, luck isn’t always available so what then? I believe that low budget movies are part of that key and places like Dubai Media are likely to break through their own confinements and start breaking through into the West European streaming markets. There is an upside to that. When the current borders by Netflix and Disney plus start pushing their own limitations others could be there taking up the slack. You see one source is stating ‘The US will need 22,700 film directors over the next 10 years’, I cannot vouch for the accuracy there. Yet this implies that ever upper level University will need to fight off job offers with a stick for 100% of their art students. I nice setting, but not realistic. Adding a talent pool becomes essential and not merely for these people, they will all need scripts. There are plenty of them around, but how good are they?

These elements put the larger streamers on the spot and those ready to grow could enter new fields. This puts Dubai Media in a nice place and lets not forget iQiyi and Tencent Media either. America might hate all that is Chinese, but I reckon that Europe is more open to this stage. As the mindset goes that in the first century Decimus Junius Juvenalis stated “Give them bread and games and they will never revolt” It was around the age of Emperor Trajan. What strikes me was that no-one considered owning the bakers. It might be merely a coin per bread, however the Colosseum had 50-80 thousand spectators and that makes for a nice penny. And there were more places over the empire of Rome where these places had crowds. Being the admiral of baker makes perfect sense to me. Even today ‘give them bread and games’ applies but in this setting nowadays growing the streaming services makes a lot more sense. And there to centrality of content becomes a new focal point. Everyone is looking towards Hollywood, but there is a problem there. California is losing their focus, they are saturated, so new borders are required. The Middle East and Asia make sense and when Europe finds out that the American prices are getting too high the aforementioned three players as well as other other streamers will see their markets erupt. Not to mention countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh that over these two countries have a little over half a billion citizens, we see a disrupted market. All looking at California and Hollywood to hand them materials, but the ongoing mass emigration of residents and businesses from California to other U.S. states (Texas) or countries is about to leave California is a near desperate state and the desperate need to pay a lot more. That opens the doors for the Middle East and Asia to make their mark. It is almost the proverbial butterfingered aide putting all egg in one basket. 

All that came to me in a near instant (in less than on hour) whilst was contemplating a low budget movie. I have no idea yet how to do that (I have three other projects in my brains) but it is something to keep in mind. Considering that this setting will take time to implode (before 2026) I still have time and until the end of the year I need to focus on the next two projects but Residuam Vitam comes first. 

Enjoy this Sunday 

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June 20, 2024 · 18:02

Changing the game

There was a setting that was designed with the recently departed Google Stadia and the Amazon Luna in mind. I set the premise to 50 million systems in phase one and up to 200 million in phase two in mind. Alas Amazon wasn’t attracted to such a sales venue. Last night I pondered a few items and I occurred to me that the Apple Vision Pro was equally set to that premise. There is a limitation, they would have to be able to run Unreal Engine 5 environments. When that is possible the rest would auto fill in, the other parts would not need UE5. Take that and like it to the Apple Arcade and they would make Microsoft irrelevant within a year, optionally to years. It is the setting that will show the other players (like Kingdom Holding) that they lost out. When this setting goes to apple, they can define a new niche customer base. Apple Arcade matter because not everyone can afford the Vision Pro. Even if a cheaper version comes to market close to 75 million people would be left in the cold. And I reckon that Apple wants the entire cluster of people. The fact that you get an arcade setting that could be upgraded to Vision Pro almost sells itself. And my predictions were conservative. 200 million is a little over 10% of the entire cluster with Indonesia, Bangladesh and Egypt leading the way. Places were Apple have great growth potential. That and a largely untapped advertisement potential as well. In the end It is a market that will end Microsoft, it gaming and their edge population (the little they had in the first place). I have been going over the numbers in the first place and I can see no downfall here. 

Apple’s first task is to set the Vision Pro to deal with Unreal Engine 5, it is the cornerstone of success, or at least it will be. In the end Apple will have to open (or enhance) a data cloud in Saudi Arabia with later on added clusters in Indonesia and Egypt. But I reckon that when they pass 100 million added people it would be a trivial expenditure. And if they surpass the 10% group (which requires data insight that I cannot lay my fingers on) the entire setting will cost Microsoft and Facebook revenue that they currently think is ‘safe’. But they didn’t count on a wildcard and it was lost because they never looked behind them. Their was billions in revenue and it was left on the floor. I wonder if Apple ever considered that. Apple has no blame, their mission statement was based on their niche market. But technology and requirements changed. With Brics it changes even more. Now they have Tencent Technology to content with. Tencent might not have the Vision Pro, but my system was initially designed without it. The Vision Pro has as  see it a larger benefit, but it is a mere ‘nice to have’. You see, sales engineering has a three tiered awareness approach. It is set to ‘must tell everyone’, ‘nice to have’ and the rest. When you focus on the first line, most people tend to ignore the ‘nice to have’ but it is there that the setting gives people outside the designated clusters are found. So don’t set to the wealthy, just make sure that they see the upside, and Vision Pro would do that. It sets the premise of a solution from 5 billion in phase one up to 18 billion in phase two and that will not include advertisement money over a dozen countries. I reckon that this is more than I can imagine (because this has not been done before) and several parts were found be looking behind me, something the current captains of technology industry aren’t doing. They are all looking forward, to the mystical AI (which does not exist). I decided to look at what was forgotten and tinkered it into a new mould. This implies innovation patents and all that is outside of the AR and printable displays (see other stories on this blog). All that and more are a future stage for the implementor of this solution, which was exactly why I got to Kingdom holding. On the far end of that, there was the real estate upgrade I considered. In light of what I noticed around Dubai. A side not considered, because all these web solutions couldn’t think out of their pond. But water is here it is and as such they didn’t consider it and it is here were I saw a side that could elevate Tencent and Huawei to a larger profit margin, not just for Dubai, but a global solution that allow real estates on a global setting to elevate their business to unfold. Dubai makes it clear. Yet it will not stop there. As the song goes New York, London, Paris, Munich they will all see the benefit and after that all metropolitan areas will follow suit. So do you think I was kidding when I said that Google et al fumbled the ball here? They ignored billions in revenue and they are all chasing a false AI dream. In a few years they will realise that a hype is merely a path to awareness and not towards revenue. Revenue needs to be real and achievable. For that we get “fake and deeply flawed Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rampant”, a quote by Frederike Kaltheuner based on works of over 20 writers. You see what the people regard s AI is merely to sides if it. LLM (Large Language Models) and DML (Deeper Machine Learning), both powerful and both opening all kinds of doors, but it is not AI, or Real AI as they now call it. Like other awareness hypes created, it isn’t real and in the mean time I created the idea for something real that could the right party give up to 18 billion a year. So when did these parts hit you, does it make sense that Google and Amazon lay off around 35,000 jobs? I will let you decide on that. In the mean time I will place more IP online so that it can only continue as Freeware. The Public Domain will show the rest on what they all missed out on. It might give me some cash, it might not. But I Will get the last laugh. I will have kept it out of the hands of Microsoft.

Have a great Thursday.

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November 30, 2023 · 23:47

Do two clouds make a weather system?

That is what I considered whilst contemplating a few things. It all started with the article (at https://www.consultancy-me.com/news/7298/new-google-cloud-region-in-ksa-could-add-109-billion-to-economy) where we see ‘New Google Cloud region in KSA could add $109 billion to economy’ there we are given “Google Cloud has announced the launch of a a new cloud region in Dammam, which could contribute around $109 billion to the country’s GDP by 2030. The expansion will extend Google Cloud’s high-performance, low-latency services to a wide range of customers in Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East”. As I personally see it, if they still had the Google Stadia (with a qualifying question) their revenue could have been almost 20% higher. It starts with around 5% in phase one with a growth to 20% in under two years. So when we are given “Another 36% of the expected activity will be in manufacturing and 3% in the public sector.” But I saw further then that. With Bangladesh and Indonesia in the setting of a much larger growth factor the oversetting of more revenue is not the first step, but it would also result in a new setting of advertising in new areas and new directions. All things they left on the floor for at least two years.

Yet this is not the larger setting, that is given to us with the second article. We see this (at https://aws.amazon.com/local/middle_east/) where we are given “We are excited to announce the new AWS Middle East (UAE) Region is now open! The AWS Middle East (UAE) Region consists of three Availability Zones and is our second region in the Middle East, joining the AWS Middle East (Bahrain) Region, giving customers more choice and flexibility to leverage advanced technologies from the world’s leading cloud provider.” The larger setting is the question if they are going for the same mineshaft, or are they working together? You see, Amazon still has the Luna and as such (still with the qualifying question) they do have the edge on 5 billion leading to 20-30 billion. I cannot be more precise because there are too many factors in play and there is a factor that players like Microsoft ignore and it has cost them massively. Amazon has the edge, but the part of customer acceptance is more difficult then some make it out. I tend to minimise that I pact or go for the smallest iteration and see how far I can take it and  grow from there, as such the 5 billion was stage one. It could be more, but I lack data for that presumption and I do not like to go on a speculative side in this. I feel certain my solution works and now we see with the KSA cloud that only one factor is missing and in all these settings Google and Amazon both missed these billions. Funny isn’t it?

But the two sides do give rise to a few connected things and as I saw my augmented reality implementations there could even be more revenue on the horizon. All sides missed by the two biggest tech companies on the planet and Microsoft was in the wind, they were clueless. You see now why I predicted their downfall? A company that big and they had no idea what they were missing, that is why I do not want them near my IP. I had hoped for the Kingdom Holdings to accept the offer, but they didn’t. The reason why is not important. Now the question becomes will Google adjust their decisions? Will Amazon consider they additional revenue? They are both mere steps away from completion (Google needs one more step). 

But that is merely my point of view. Enjoy the day.

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November 29, 2023 · 07:05

Egg timer? What egg timer?

Yes, we get that. There are egg timers that give us what we were waiting for. I stated on November 17th (12 days ago) “A complete overhaul was the only option and now with BRICS and China pushing in on the little revenue they had left, they have no options now and their competitors are moving in on whatever revenue they had left.” I said so in ‘It’s that time again’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/11/17/its-that-time-again/) Now Politico gives us ‘Brussels wants to beat the Pentagon at its own game on arms sales’ (at https://www.politico.eu/article/european-union-weapons-sales-united-states-defense/) there we see “The European Commission is hinting at a new mechanism similar to the US Foreign Military Sales to facilitate arms exports”, well that didn’t take long, did it? So when we see “In order to claw back the initiative, the European Commission is raising the prospect of copying the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) scheme” we see one thing, but I think it is more about stopping the Chinese sales system of becoming too successful. I fear it might be a little too late for that. There is every indication that China is almost ready to the defence needs of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Too little, too late and as I see it, a little over two years too late. I reckon they ill soon be fishing on the wrong side of the net. So whilst we are now given “In early 2024, Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is expected to present a European Defence Industrial Strategy to help support the Continent’s European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). The consultation document is one of five papers circulated to national delegations to get their views on what the strategy should look like.” You see several reports are out there in the trend of “Riyadh eyes air defence systems and drones as part of possible yuan-based deal while Cairo plans to buy J-10C fighter jets”, so whilst the Europeans are trying to figure out “how to go about it” Saudi Arabia and Egypt are at this point getting catered to by China. As such we see that the China North Industries Group Corporation Limited (NORINCO) is actively talking to the Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI), who is interested in diversifying. 

So that is billions missed, just as I predicted almost two years ago. Now that it is happening, some are ‘reporting’ all whilst whatever intension Europe has with “on what the strategy should look like”, Beijing is not merely getting its feet wet, it is catering to a new clientele and China is hungry for that revenue. So when was the last time you left billions on the floor? As I personally see it Amazon did so a year ago (but they have plenty of cash), the US government does not, it has a debt of $31,000,000,000,000 as such every billion lost is another carve on the debt stick and the next shutdown is expected to be around January 19th 2024 if they cannot agree on a new continuing resolution a lot will fall away. That was a given, but with Europe now tying to get defence money, giving the US less and already China is in the mix (has been for months) with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and they are expected to score some revenue from the United Arab Emirates as well, this upcoming CR will be missing a few revenue posts and not much is needed to make it all fall over. The larger setting is not merely defence, the UAE will (according to one source) be looking at ships as well. As such there is every chance that the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) could be up for some UAE coast guard ships. As I understand it, it has something to do with the Abu Dhabi Ship Building Co (ADSB). So is it mere consultancy? Ships design? I honestly do not know, but what does matter is that they used to have an American fleet, now as that falls away a lot more revenue will be missed by American companies. 

All this and the larger setting isn’t merely what Politico tells you, it is the second degree that the Saudi and Egyptian deals open the doors for. I think that Bangladesh is next on the Chinese sights. China has a two sided tactic, gain revenue and stop America from getting revenue. It is the same setting we saw with Evergreen in 1989. Yung-Fa Chang played his hand brilliantly, a setting where players like Nedlloyd had close to complete control was lost in less than 5 years to Evergreen. I reckon that we get a similar kind of play towards the larger naval needs of Bangladesh and Indonesia. After that there will not be much left for America. They already broke their own windows with their ‘elite’ approach towards the F-22 Raptor. I am not criticising this. It was the demand of the US to keep sole custody of that dinky toy. Yet now Chengdu has several nations vying for their J-20 and with the range options, that is a thing coveted by many defence forces all over the globe and there Saudi Arabia, UAE and optionally Egypt and Indonesia as well is a setting of several billions right of the bat, and I expect that the USA cannot counter those odds on revenue. Yet there are a few options for Europe as well. If they push their agenda Chengdu will have to compete with the Eurofighter Typhoon. I have no idea who will win that revenue race, but Europe better be moving fast, the early bird that hesitates becomes worm food. As for the technical side, I am not a pilot. Yet in all this the Evergreen approach comes to mind, so America and Europe are quickly running out of time and Europe’s voiced response of “on what the strategy should look like” sounded nice in 2021, but not now. It’s crunch time for them at this point.

Enjoy your day today.

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November 19, 2023 · 04:03

Speculating towards something?

That is the setting, I have been keeping my eyes on Bangladesh for more than one reason. You see, Bangladesh with its 170,000,000 people represent an upcoming population that has never been considered for several retail groups, but that nation could become a more important group. China sees this, Saudi Arabia sees this and that is where the next article comes into play. The article (at https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/11/18/japan-brings-bangladesh-into-the-folds-of-new-security-framework/) gives us ‘Japan brings Bangladesh into the folds of new security framework’ which also gives us “Japan maintains economic partnerships with most Asian countries, particularly Bangladesh. Dhaka has received around US$25 billion in development and economic assistance from Tokyo since 1972 and around US$9.2 billion of this has been overseas development assistance.” I believe it is one truth, but not the one that matters to Japan. When America implodes, so will Japan, unless they make new friends fast. And when Japan embraces 170 million Muslims, they stand a chance to get some relief from Saudi Arabia and optionally the UAE too. That is what I am speculating is behind this move. Yes, there is a stage that Japan can use for retail purposes, but there is a larger stage. As per March, Japan is dealing with a $9.2 trillion debt. When America collapses (not if, when) Japan will lose a lot more and whatever they have banked against the dollar will fall away, as such Japan needs another path. China is not one due to historical stages, Russia is equally unavailable. As such this path seems the most intelligent one and even as it is not the best path, it might be one of the few left available to the former friends of the United States. And in continuation of this speculation, when things implode, the BRICS players would like to keep as many as larger players on their side as possible and Japan is not great, it is a huge economic player. 

So as I see it (and I could be wrong), Japan and a few others will need to realign their priorities in allies and economic sides and Japan seemingly just made their first move. I wonder when either Saudi Arabia or the UAE will set another path towards Indonesia and its 273 million citizens. This makes the setting fro BRICS a larger one, with two additional nations they get almost half a billion consumer and this is the stage that is merely in its starting place. When these two nations get the chance to become workers in Neom, optionally additional domains we get a new setting for economy and that is where Japan is banking on. It is trying to get a slice of that pie and as America has been in denial of too much we see that their ‘friends’ are reevaluating their options and there is now an optional case that Japan made the first move. 

Am I right? Am I wrong?
That remains the question, my speculative view comes from the data available to me, it does not make me correct, but I see it that I am more likely than not correct. A stage we all faced. I am willing to become critical of my view, slice and dice it, merge the data streams and see what I can prove through that. I am still a decent amount away from proving it all, but I feel that It is clear that Bangladesh wasn’t merely for some security framework, the larger stage is still in play. It is still fluidic but the media at large is less and less reliable. Consider the media streams that gave ANY view on this stage and then ask yourself the question why did they not make mention of it? 

Just 20 hours until my weekend is over, enjoy yours.

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August 28, 2023 · 13:49

The speculated danger

Yes, that is where I am. Whatever I am about to give you, there is a decent amount of speculation involved, as such there is every chance that there are issues that aren’t covered and people with that kind of knowledge aren’t speaking out at present. Not to debunk my speculations and not to enforce it. I believe that the filtered media we are getting is now likely the more danger we face. This all started last night when I saw ‘UAE records hottest day of the year as temperature crosses 50 degree mark’ (at https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2023/08/27/Temperature-crosses-50-degree-mark-again-as-UAE-records-hottest-day-of-the-summer). Here we see “The rising heat in the UAE crossed the scorching 50 degrees Celsius threshold on Saturday, marking this summer’s highest temperature. According to the National Center of Meteorology (NCM), the mercury touched 50.8 degree Celsius in Abu Dhabi’s Owtaid in Al Dhafra region at 2:45 p.m.” We see all kinds of heat messages, but for a place like the United Arab Emirates to give that to the readers is a little new to me and that place is warm on any usual day. This started me to mull several things over and it also made me think back to the 60’s (when I was young and innocent. Yes, I was innocent once). That year is forever marked in my brain. Not because of the year as I am not certain what year it was. Yet I remember that it was -20 Celsius. The coldest I could ever remember. In addition to the ice flowers on my window, something I had never seen before there was something else. The streets were iced. Now we had ice in the winter, I grew up in a city named Rotterdam. But this was different, the streets were covered in ice. I could literally skate to school which had never happened before and I do not recall that it happened since. This is what I would call a temperature outlier. These things happen and there is nothing strange about it. Now consider this heat in the UAE. In addition consider (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/08/10/the-part-we-seem-to-forget/) the stage I reported in ‘The part we seem to forget’ where I quoted “Within the next two decades, temperatures are likely to rise by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, breaching the ambition of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, and bringing widespread devastation and extreme weather” (source: the Guardian) You can forget about the decennia part, I personally believe we are there now. To get that stage we need to add three elements. 

  1. “Researchers say deforestation has caused the Amazon to absorb less than half as much carbon dioxide as it did twenty years ago.” With the added “In the last fifty years, Brazil’s Amazon has lost about a fifth of its forest cover—almost 300,000 square miles. This includes at least 5,110 square miles lost in 2021”
  2. “From 2001 to 2022, Indonesia lost 29.4 Mha of tree cover, equivalent to a 18% decrease in tree cover since 2000, and 21.1 Gt of CO₂e emissions” which gives us Indonesia. 
  3. “Beginning in March 2023, and with increased intensity starting in June, Canada has been affected by an ongoing, record-setting series of wildfires. All 13 provinces and territories have been affected” with a total of 13,999,922 ha displacing well over 250,000 people. With Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/23/mapping-the-scale-of-canadas-record-wildfires) giving us “Canada is battling more than 1,000 active fires, and nearly two-thirds of them are out of control”

This is where the speculation starts. We have decimated our forests and the ability to regain the oxygen. Now, this is not going anywhere soon, our atmosphere has a curtain of well over 5 miles of oxygen, so we aren’t running out. But we now have a markable point where we use more oxygen than nature can correct for. The three largest places with forests are down by too much and there are side effects. The smoke of the Canadian fires, that go all through to the US will have a secondary impact

People wear protective masks as the Roosevelt Island Tram crosses the East River while haze and smoke from the Canadian wildfires shroud the Manhattan skyline in the Queens Borough New York City, June 7, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

The sun will warm us less and you might think that is a good thing, but you would be wrong and that is why I made mention of the outlier in the 60’s. I personally believe that we are about to face the harshest winters ever and it will not be one year. This will start a trend that will be a 3-7 year stretch, not all at once, but we will face at least 2 harsh winters over the next 5 years with a few more after that. Even if the forests in Canada are replanted using Team Trees with Mark Rober, it will take close to a decade to see that impact and the forest fires will return next year too. Less likely to the same scale, but forest fires are a normal setting in Canada, the three elements combined is different and new.

Some will have seen the Netflix movie How it Ends and we aren’t facing that, but the nuclear winter that follows such fires are not entirely impossible, I would go on stating that they are becoming more and more likely. The media will trivialise this and state that I am a doom sayer, yet they have never given us the real deal in this and they are unlikely to do so now. I am not saying this will happen, but I feel certain that we are heading to really harsh winters and the first one will hit us before January 2025 which is expected to cripple the UK and Europe to a larger degree. Canada and the nordic nations will not be crippled to such a degree, but they too will feel the bite of the winter that comes. In the meantime with the winter hitting us and the heat being a larger problem extreme weather is coming our way and it is coming now, not in a decade. 

So consider what I told you, fell free to check the numbers you can and be certain that you take note of the trivialisation you see in the media and take note of the media that trivialised it. They are no longer to be trusted ever. They are filtering the information to keep you asleep, especially in a time when you should have been awake a lot more. It is not the one thing, there is no one thing, it is the combination of a whole range of issues and it is not the private jet setting, that is utter bullshit. What they are all happy to ‘ignore’ or forget is what I mentioned in ‘A COP26 truth’ a setting we see (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/11/13/a-cop26-truth/) two elements stand out. “over the last 15 years 15,000,000 additional flights were added. That amounts to 41,000 flights a day, every single day. So how much CO2 do these flights create?” The Guardian was all about private jets and made no mention of this element. Do you really think that these flights were essential? Then there was “We are that close to suffocating. On the other side, we have seen clear reports that 50% of the damage comes from 147 plants, the media ignored it, I wrote about it and placed the documents of UNEP and the EEA for you to read, they had graphics too.” How interesting was it that the Guardian and its environmental pages did not mention that report. Two elements and you were kept in the dark and now these elements start to form a biased opinion (from me) but feel free to come up with better settings and this has been going on since 2021. So with all the space they had they ignored the European Environmental Agency? 

It is my personal speculated believe that these elements are part of a greater impact and the Canadian fires with the deforestation elements are adding up to a new picture. I might be so brazen to suggest that the 8 billion people this year onwards (for some time) will be using more oxygen than the planet can renew, this has a larger impact now, the winters and summers will both be harsh, more harsh then anyone can remember. I would leave it to the media, but I don’t thin they can be trusted any longer. In fact there are trust issues on all sides and so there should be, but those who give us the news aren’t (it is now filtered information). Am I right? Am I wrong?

I honestly do not know, but this is my speculated opinion. I might be going from numbers, but it remains speculation. 

So breath and get through the day, the weekend is behind you the next one might be coming in 5 days. Enjoy.

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August 19, 2023 · 00:41

Our house is burning down. Down!

By now we have all heard of the fires in Canada. There is nothing that I can say, invent or imagine that makes this setting easier. These fires are making the fires of Rome (64AD) and burning of London (1666AD) look like a simple BBQ (or clambake if you are from the US). At this time the fires are well over 13,500,000 Hectare, and it has displaced around 200,000 people. Which is almost 1% of the population. The largest fire in recorded history. I have never ever heard of a fire this big and I have been around for well over half a century. I wonder what the eco-deniers make of this setting, who will they blame? The fact that from all over the world firefighters are coming to Canada to fight a fire too big to comprehend is only one setting. The stage that planes are so loaded that they need to turn away those fleeing the disaster they face. 

People wear protective masks as the Roosevelt Island Tram crosses the East River while haze and smoke from the Canadian wildfires shroud the Manhattan skyline in the Queens Borough New York City, June 7, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

And that is before you realise that NYC is orange, orange from smoke by Canadian fires. An event that has never happened before. So yes, I looked at plenty of issues before I looked at this. I am on the other side of the planet, but I took notice, I took notice several times and now I decided to write about it. 

The setting hasn’t changed, I did. I am starting to realise that that much forest gone will impact our oxygen supply and it will take lose to a decade for a decent amount to be rebuild. We can argue on the timeline. But the forests in the Amazon are depleted, the ones in Indonesia have seen depletion as well Indonesia lost 29.4 Mha of tree cover, equivalent to a 18% decrease in tree cover since 2000. Did you think that was nothing? Now the forests of Siberia are almost all that remain and I reckon that this is not a path we want to walk on. This fire might not be what we wanted, but there is a negative part in me that states that this is the fire we the people (not just Canadians) have been entitled to. A small reminder that exploitation of our world will hurt us all and people more intelligent than me would have been aware of this for several years and the Canadian fires are merely bringing it to the foreground. Some articles are drawing in the people by looking at how it started, some are set on the blame factor, but if you need someone to blame you only need to look into a mirror. Politicians are not held to account, all whilst driving the gravy train. We are being told that places like the UK that woodland creation has increased by 40 percent since last year to 3,128 hectares. It isn’t much, but it is a start, all being it being half a decade late. People like Mark Rober (formerly with NASA) have aided organisations like Team Trees, an organisation that as of 29 June 2023, the project has raised $24,438,806, exceeding the fundraiser’s goal to plant 20 million trees. As anticipated, more than 20 million trees have been planted. So one ex-NASA with an organisation achieved more in 2 years that the UK achieved in a decade and it is people like this that Canada will need, their solutions will be required when the fires are stopped. When? Your guess is as good as mine and it will rely on guessing as we have never faced a fire like this ever before, not in well over 2000 years as far as I can tell. 

So what is the option? I am not sure we have one, our house is burning down and whilst most houses have a garden to evacuate to, the planet has nothing surrounding itself but empty space and that is a place where we cannot survive. I wonder how long it will take some to blame the rich, tax everyone and whatever other solution people give, but the simple equation is that until we change our lives from a consumer based life towards an essential goods stage this will keep on going on. And with a little over 8,000,000,000 consumers in this house, we are destined for a larger failing than we care to admit to. You see it is not merely the fires, it is the simple equation where 34 million acres are not there to give us the oxygen we need to breath. So how short will our oxygen supply be in 2024? You can ignore it all you want but that will be the largest topic we ever faced and it is coming. None of it is the fault of Canada or Canadians. We all did our best to ignore Brazil and Indonesia. The media skated around the issue and now the blame game starts. Well as soon as the fires have been digitally exploited to the maximum. That is how I see it. Do you think I am wrong?

Enjoy the weekend and consider the numbers, the numbers tend to be correct.

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July 29, 2023 · 08:55

It only took three years

That was what pushed into view. I was about to write about something else, a movie idea I had. Yet several other messages came into view which pushed me to realign my focus. You see, I had the view just before CES2020 that Huawei was going to be a large player, much larger than anyone guessed. Even I had not thought that far ahead as certain plays by the STC (Saudi Telecom Company) were not in view yet. Now it becomes a much bigger play and two players (Huawei and STC) could reenforce each other, a setting that was not visible in 2019. So lets take a look.

Article One
The first article was brought to us by the Hindustan Times last year (the year of Soylent Green, another idea that I already wrote about but came to the top of my mind again last night). Here (at https://tech.hindustantimes.com/tech/news/huawei-launches-harmonyos-to-compete-with-google-s-android-71622644049707.html) we are given the idea that Huawei is pushing for a release to 200 million mobile phones. An achievable mark to say the least, the rest was bla bla but the notion was given. 

Article Two
Tech outlook gave us two days ago (at https://www.thetechoutlook.com/news/technology/os/harmony-os-4-0-to-debut-on-august-4-mate-60-5g-expected-to-debut-alongside/) ‘Harmony OS 4.0 to debut on August 4’ and that is the part certain people were all waiting for. The text “Apart from Harmony OS 4.0, the Chinese manufacturer is rumoured to announce the Huawei Mate 60 5G at the HDC 2023 event. As mentioned above, it will be the brand’s first 5G flagship phone after facing US sanctions. While the Mate 60 series is expected to be announced at HDC 2023, the company will hold a dedicated launch event for it in September or October this year.” You see the ‘US sanctions’ part reads nice, but the play doesn’t go there. STC and Huawei has as of the coming month a larger setting. This setting will include Egypt, BanglaDash and Indonesia. This gives them a lot more than the targeted 200 million phones and the moment STC enters the EU they will have the needed traction, the STC 5G network will have some serious ‘umph’ as the expression goes. More important, a network that stretches to that degree will push the US and EU out of a few areas, or at least make them suffer the loss of expected revenue by some analytics, they will tumble twice over. 

I’ll be honest, I saw the play, but not to this degree as the STC was not on my radar. I reckon that there was always a chance that Etisalat (UAE) would grow, but that is not in the cards at present. This is important as the needs of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in the same direction, but they are not aligned. That difference is important and there is a chance that the STC will offer services that include the UAE. I reckon that the UAE might want to connect to Center3 and the STC for the additional business it will bring them, but that would be pure speculation on my side.

What does matter is that with the release of Harmony 4, on August 4th a new play opens up and it might go a long way to allow a digital setting to the MBC group to the settings they have in play at the moment. They will push the sports and news groups that are in the making with larger digital channels, just after they make their IPO offer (which Bloomberg mentioned only 3 weeks ago), now with the channels and digital groups in play it goes well beyond the shores we see at present and with Huawei at the mobile front, they can offer something larger than most have ever had and it will appeal to the hungry revenue entrepreneurs in Indonesia and BanglaDash. They will add hundreds of millions to their pool, hundreds of millions that haven’t ever had access to anything (of that nature). I reckon that by Q1 2024 the STC could have doubled in value and they were never a small player to begin with. Now add Egypt and you get a much larger population, mostly Muslim and all eager to be economic players. I reckon that BRICS had a few ideas on adding Saudi Arabia. And the US? Well they are still screaming middle east stability and requiring cheap oil in a play that is already outdated. And as we can clearly see, Saudi Arabia and China are getting along just fine, no EU or US required. That was a danger for some time and new we are about to see the fruition of these players. You still think the US was in Saudi Arabia for merely ‘stability’ reasons? Come to think of it Janet Yellen was in China recently, with these elements now in view was it really about what they say it was? 

This is in part speculation, it does not make it true, yet you have to wonder if I saw these events unfold, they did not? I might not have seen the impact of the STC and MBC groups in 2019, but these people (Jellen and Blinken) get a large 6 figure income more than me (Jellen gets a 7 figure income), you mean they were in the dark? Go cry me a river, please.

Huawei should have enough to get their target from Egypt, Indonesia and BanglaDash alone and they have close to half a dozen nations more on their mind (China being not the smallest one) and as expansions go, with the Huawei 5G network in play, the STC can grow a lot faster, allowing the MBC sports and news channels to reach a few additional nations. This alone will make people in the EU want to see what they are missing out of. I reckon that the advertisements alone will pay for this caper and then some. A stage that grew in under 4 years, as such the EU and US now have a problem. You see all these TV channels and media players are about to become obsolete to a much larger degree. They can shout MAGA and Karen’s all they like, the rest are able to switch the channel to something they would much rather watch and there it seems that the MBC Group has you covered. I personally wonder what Murdoch is worth by the end of 2024, because when the advertisers go away, he is just shouting arranged news to people who are not interested in listening, that part of the pool he soiled himself as I personally see it.

Enjoy the weekend, or as they say at MBC in Arabic “رحلة جديدة في الخدمات الرقمية”

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