Tag Archives: JP Morgan

February 25, 2026 · 22:41

Today is the difference

That is what people will tell themselves and I would agree, but there is a setting that no one ever expected. You see, America has just had its State of the Union. And the ‘books’ say that the state of the union is:

An annual message delivered by the president of the United States to a joint session of the United States Congress near the beginning of most calendar years on the current condition of the nation.The speech generally includes reports on the nation’s budget, economy, news, agenda, progress, achievements and the president’s priorities and legislative proposals. The address fulfills the requirement in Article II, Section 3, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution that the president “shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient”.

So we can assume that the Americans will be given a true representation of what is, what might be and what is desired. So we get two sources. First the Dutch NOS who gives us “‘US stronger than ever,’ Trump says in campaign speech riddled with falsehoods” (in Dutch, at https://nos.nl/artikel/2603925-vs-sterker-dan-ooit-zegt-trump-in-campagnespeech-vol-onwaarheden) and to avoid translating the whole enchilada, we can turn to CNN who gives us (at https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/24/politics/fact-check-state-of-the-union) ‘Fact check: Trump makes false claims about the economy, elections and crime in State of the Union’ and CNN fires of the first sinker of whatever battleship opposes it with “Many of them were long-debunked falsehoods familiar from his rallies, interviews and social media posts. These include various lies disparaging the fairness of US elections, his false claim that he ended wars that were never actually wars or never actually ended, and his fictional “$18 trillion” figure for supposed investment in the US over the past year. The subject on which he was most frequently inaccurate was the economy. Among other things, Trump overstated the performance of the economy during this presidential term to date, overstated the inflation he inherited from the Biden administration, used highly misleading figures when discussing gasoline prices, and wrongly asserted, twice, that foreign countries are paying the tariffs that are actually being paid by US importers.” And weirdly enough I get it, a nation that is broke is the most unlikely to state in its statement of the budget “We are destitute, we squandered all you have and the United States doesn’t have anything left, we are a drowning vessel with no hope for shore. It sounds like a passenger on the Titanic that asks “Is land far away?” And the crew member states, no madam, it is a mere 3,800 meters to land. The lady asks what direction she should swim. The crew answers straight down. 

That is the setting as I see it, that the United States of America is in. The 18 trillion is to avoid the discussion of the United States defaulting on its loans, because that will be the next setting to scuttle Wall Street, pension funds and several other funds who have been banking of US Treasury bills. And I am not alone, David Kelly (JP Morgan) stated last October that the United States was going broke slowly, I am no longer convinces that it is going slowly. As the America administration is vying for the next hype, they are banking with funds they no longer have and as I see it, any nation with US treasury bills is about to sell them with a loss and there is no going back. I warned for this for almost a decade and no one wanted to listen. In stead of overhauling the tax system, people started screaming that they should tax the billionaires whist that might merely stop the avalanche that comes for a mere week and it would be unlawful. But that is for another day. CNN also gives us “As of the night of Trump’s address, the White House’s own website said the figure for “major investment announcements” during this Trump term was “$9.7 trillion,” and even that is a major exaggeration; a detailed CNN review in October found the White House was counting trillions of dollars in vague investment pledges, pledges that were about “bilateral trade” or “economic exchange” rather than investment in the US and vague statements that didn’t even rise to the level of pledges.” Sol why did he double it? I reckon that the economy is at a massive decline with waging war on Canada, Greenland and a few other places. Canada and the EU are don’t with him. I personally believe that China is too, there is too much in the recession pipeline, China has won and the United States lost. A war that never had any chance of success. Why? When you consider the ‘innovation’ that some tech companies proclaimed all whist they cannot figure out the innovation that Huawei is sporting, that should be enough and now that we see some political game between OpenAI and Microsoft with hundreds of billions at stake, the AI war is seemingly settled in favour of Google, AWS and IBM. So whilst we get all kinds of innovation speech on how AI can replace COBOL programmers (downgrading IBM stock by 10%), we are unlikely to see that happen, as such IBM stock will repair itself and the proclaimers of that setting (Anthropic) fail to deliver, their basket will be floating down the Nile to the space of a hungry Crocodile. And in all this no one is asking how Anthropic got the trained DML engine that could do this, because if it only went from the manuals, they are in for a big surprise as I see it. IBM programmers got COBOL to cry ‘mommy’ whilst getting 12 statements out of 8 lines. I know it does not make sense, but there is a bigger setting and whilst I only casually did COBOL in 1985, I am in no way an expert. Yes there COBOL AI can run circles around me, not IBM programmers wit decades of experience. And that is merely one of many setting where the America Economy falls flat. And the United States are making it harder on itself with every iteration of tech enterprises that are playing some bluff game and are setting the bar to miscommunication in the 11th hour. That Is how I personally see it and the media is chasing digital dollars, so they are mostly no help. 

Then CNN gives us “Trump claimed gas prices are “now below $2.30 a gallon in most states, and in some places, $1.99 a gallon.” But no state had an average gas price on Tuesday below $2.37 per gallon, according to AAA; only two states had an average below $2.50 per gallon. And while there are some individual gas stations selling gas for below $2 per gallon, they are scarce; Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for the firm GasBuddy, said during the speech that the firm found just four stations across the country below $2 (aside from special discounts) out of the roughly 150,000 stations the firm tracks, so about 0.003% of the total.” As such we see the state of the union a setting where the United States might actually be broke, I have no evidence to that effect, but it renders correctly with all the other facts we are given and the other settings we have been watching for years. As such today is the difference and I wonder who will actually as the president of the United States whether it is acceptable that the State of the Union was based on incorrect miscommunications. 

A fair question, not?
And now I hear (unverified) that Canada has told StarLink to vacate Canada, its allocated frequencies have been retracted, its hardware must be removed in 60 days and as I see it, that will imply that America gets even less money now. As I stated, this was unverified and asI had only one source, it is not enough. Perhaps I get more data later, but for now, whomever hears that news, take it with a spoonful of salt. 

So have a great day and feel free to question the data your government gives you. 

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February 22, 2026 · 22:19

By the numbers

As things go, late last night (roughly 20.435 hours ago) I was directed towards a CNN article. The article (at https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/21/politics/economy-gdp-trade-deficit-trump-tariffs) gives us ‘These two new economic numbers blew a hole in Trump’s rosy narrative’ where we see the following issues. The first is “Two new pieces of economic data, one released Thursday and one released Friday, blew another hole in President Donald Trump’s triumphant narrative about the effects of his tariffs. The figures released early Thursday showed Trump had wildly overstated the impact of the tariffs on the trade deficit. The figures released early Friday showed he also had wildly exaggerated economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.” My first thought was ‘what else is new’ and it is not based on data. It is based on the presentations that we are given in several ways. As I personally see it, he cannot deal with the thought of being seen as a loser (the bully in him won’t allow this) and we then get to issue number two. “Trump has for years highlighted the trade deficit – the difference between the value of US imports and exports – as a supposed example of how the US is being “ripped off” by other countries. (Many economists disagree with his characterization.) On Wednesday evening, he posted a celebratory message on social media. “THE UNITED STATES TRADE DEFICIT HAS BEEN REDUCED BY 78% BECAUSE OF THE TARIFFS BEING CHARGED TO OTHER COMPANIES AND COUNTRIES,” the all-caps post began. The next morning, though, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed the actual 2025 trade deficit in goods and services. It was nearly identical to the 2024 deficit, down just 0.2% — nowhere close to Trump’s professed “78%” decline. And the trade deficit in goods, the items subject to Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, was up 2.1% compared to 2024.”

So as we are given “Trump didn’t make up the “78%” figure out of thin air, but it was still deceptive.” I am on the fence there. Pretty much every politician I have ever met uses some form of ‘deceptive presentation’ I have made presentation in the past doing exactly that, although not the the effect that is stated here. Then we get “Trump’s Wednesday post was also inaccurate in suggesting his tariffs are paid by foreign countries. Tariff payments are made by US importers, not foreign exporters, and those importers often pass on some of their costs to consumers. While foreign exporters may sometimes drop their prices to try to keep their products competitive, various  analyses have found that the overwhelming majority of the costs of the tariffs Trump has imposed this term are being covered by a combination of US businesses and US consumers.” So here we are with a CNN article that is like Dynamite (I am certain that Daniel Dale, the writer,  doesn’t have a explosive permission, handed to him by the RCMP)  and it gives us some great settings, settings a lot seemingly have missed. So as we are given “The figures released Friday show just how far from reality his “5.6%” claim was. The economy actually grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, much slower than the 4.4% growth in the third quarter of 2025.

The fall government shutdown was a significant factor in the weak figure. Still, Trump claimed growth was 5.6% despite the shutdown, which wasn’t close to correct.” You would think that this is the end of it, but you would be wrong. It kinda connects to something else (or at least this is what I think). The article (at https://www.aol.com/articles/trump-crackdown-drives-80-plunge-221101694.html) gives us ‘Trump crackdown drives 80% plunge in immigrant employment, reshaping labor market, Goldman says’ where we see “A sweeping crackdown on immigration in President Donald Trump’s second term, characterized by elevated deportations and strict new visa bans, has precipitated an 80% collapse in net immigration to the U.S., according to a new analysis by Goldman Sachs. The report, released Feb. 16, warns the dramatic contraction in the flow of foreign-born workers is fundamentally altering the nation’s labor supply mathematics and lowering the threshold for job growth needed to maintain economic stability.”

So not only are the American getting hoodwinked now, but the hoodwinking will continue and get worse as I see it. The setting of “The investment bank’s U.S. economics team, in a report led by David Mericle, projected a precipitous drop in the arrival of new workers. While net immigration averaged approximately 1 million people per year during the 2010s, that figure fell to 500,000 in 2025 and is projected to plummet further to just 200,000 in 2026, Goldman said. That represents an 80% decline from the historical baseline, a shift the report attributes directly to aggressive policy changes, including “elevated deportations,” a recently announced pause on immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, and an expanded travel ban.

The economists note these measures are likely to “slow inflows of visa and green card recipients” significantly, while the “loss of Temporary Protected Status for immigrants from some countries” poses further downside risks to the labor supply. The report explicitly links the forecasted drop to elevated deportations and tighter visa and green card policies.” It relates because the view that it gives me is that the ‘true’ setting of 1.4% might go down further to a mere 1.12% and that is really not good news for the Americans, I might even call it massively drastic. Should the AI drive decline further (which I personally expect to kick in this year) there is a chance that the American economy might rise no more than 1%. Do you actually think that the current president of the United States is willing to hand out that result to the public? His current rating is set to 36%-47% and it is about to get a few klicks worse, how much worse? I have no way of knowing that, but the CNN article and the AOL data might give rise for American to dislike him a little more than they did yesterday. I reckon that the 80% plunge in immigrant employment data will set certain people up the wall and I believe that there is a certain relationship and as I see it, people on nearly al levels are no longer smitten with him and I reckon that it is about to get worse. But in this I am speculating and I have no data other than the one I see and it gives what some call a ‘hinkey’ setting of the American economy is about to take a dive, because as I see it, there is only so much you can ‘misrepresent’ and deception gets seen by all who are mulling the numbers over and the captains of industry that the USA has, will see that the ride is over. As I see it, the the numbers are given and the United States of America is showing a mere 1% gain, the threshold for pushing that place into a recession will be met and as I see it, it will be a nasty separation between the United States of America and the business world. The place to hide it all will be goin, going, gone. 

Could I be wrong?
That is an important questions, I always look at the setting that I could be wrong and it is the same here, But when you look at the AOL article in combination with the CNN article shows a setting and it is not alone, the stage that David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management gave us last October is showing us that these two articles are a little more alarming than we think they are. And when we see that the Strategista Globalis Princeps was a little more on the money than perhaps even he saw the stage towards recession is almost complete. It merely needs 2-5 American billionaires to take a runner towards the zero tax sands of Monaco, the UAE or the Bahamas for the panic buttons to be pushed which will make the lines of recession to be a decent certainty.  But in all this I still could be wrong because I react to media and as long as their reliability is too low, there is every chance that my view will be wrong too.

So have a great day and feel free to enjoy the last day of your weekend. The end of mine is a mere 100 minutes away.

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February 11, 2026 · 20:42

Is anyone still in doubt?

That was the setting that was given to me by the Guardian, who produced ‘Mark Carney reminds Trump that Canada paid for key border bridge US president says he won’t open’ (at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/10/trump-canada-windsor-detroit-bridge), this comes with the fun fact that the Guardian was trailing my previous article by several hours. So as we are given “Mark Carney said he had held a “positive” conversation with Donald Trump after the US leader threatened to block a new key bridge between their two countries, reminding the president that Canada paid for the structure – and that the US shares ownership.” This comes with the additional “Late on Monday, Trump posted a lengthy message on social media, falsely claiming that the $4.6bn Gordie Howe International Bridge between Windsor, Ontario, and Detroit, Michigan, had “virtually no US content”. The bridge is due to open in early 2026. In his post, Trump had also claimed that Canada owns both ends of the bridge and made a bizarre assertion that increased trade between Canada and China would include a ban on Canadians playing ice hockey.” So beside the ludicrous Hockey setting, and it is ludicrous as China has Kunlun Red Star is the most prominent Chinese professional ice hockey club. You know what? Because Canada has an evolving Chinese trade setting. Perhaps Prime Minister Mark Carney could invite Kunlun Red Star and let them play against some of the Canadian teams n Canada. Might be a sight to watch and whilst we all watch these games we could repeat the claims from President Trump on the big screens, so that the Chinese have something to laugh about to. So as we are given ““Now, the Canadian Government expects me, as President of the United States, to PERMIT them to just ‘take advantage of America!’ What does the United States of America get – Absolutely NOTHING!” he wrote.” As I see it, Canada paid for that bridge, as such the united States of America has a sweet deal here and there is another setting (my apologies mr. Prime Minster) it could open up a new stage of shipping Chinese EV cars to the united States, complete with Huawei routers (I have a sick sense of humor). But the story is not this, as I see it, after all the BS we are shown. I am more and more convinced that the United States of America is out of funds. The 2 billion due to the United Nations, we are also given that “In 2025, over $32 billion in U.S. clean energy and manufacturing projects were cancelled, largely driven by shifting federal policies, economic instability, and high interest rates. Impacting over 40,000 jobs, major project cancellations included EV battery plants in Georgia and Michigan, and massive offshore wind developments.” (Source: Fast Company) and that list goes on and when you get to the Jersey tunnel setting that is shutdown in the 11th hour, the only thing remaining is the lack of the US Bank Balance. The tantrums of the President of the united States might have something do to with the Epstein files, but when you see how hundred of thousands of jobs are thrown in the wind, I actually doubt it. The fact that the US can no longer foot the bills that previous administrations vied for and mostly opened funds for gives me the weird setting that we are watching the final hours of a functioning United States of America. And in this there is more, but there is no real link and it is a massive  speculation. You see, one day ago we saw (source: TechStock2) ‘JP Morgan’s return-to-office fight turns personal as staff warn of ‘career suicide’’ where we see:

  • About 2,000 employees—out of a workforce topping 300,000—have signed a petition urging the company to bring back hybrid work.
  • Other banks are also cracking down on office policies, widening the post-pandemic pushback reshaping finance from within.

I personally believe that it is set to the given mandate of secrecy, there are too many things you cannot keep under wrap in a hybrid workforce. I think that these last days might be massively lucrative for JP Morgan, but this is only possible when all heads look the same way and that is a non-option in a hybrid workforce. I believe that JP Morgan is seeing the water rise and it needs an attentive workforce (in the office) That is the setting that I personally believe is the case (remember: I could be wrong). And it isn’t only JP Morgan, other banks are in the same setting. As I see it, the party is over and to survive what comes requires a massive amount of focus and adherence to protocols. Now, I could be wrong, but the settings as they evolved over the last two months are giving me the shivers. Because when the economy of the United States goes down, Japan and the EU will take massive hits and I am not sure if they could survive these hits. Consider these points:

  • In 2024, bonds made up about 8.2% of total liquid financial assets held by U.S. households, though this percentage is generally much higher in conservative retirement portfolios.
  • The $52.1 trillion in total U.S. retirement entitlements includes $48.1 trillion in financial assets, with a significant share held by institutional investors like pension funds, which are heavy holders of U.S. Treasury bonds.

So, what do you think will happen with the US Treasury bonds when the US Administration forgo payment? Consider that you have maximum 6 months to see this unfold and when the US Bonds do take a dive, what will remain of the $52.1 trillion? (It is not a hidden trap, I actually don’t know how much of all this is in bonds, but it is a lot). Another connected piece of information comes from BitGet (source is unknown to me) where we see “JPMorgan Asset Management’s Chief Global Strategist David Kelly has issued a stern warning, stating that the current stock market boom is mainly supported by liquidity and the performance of large technology stocks, showing signs of a “bubble” and is clearly disconnected from the real economy. He described the current economy as a combination of “weak consumption, sluggish employment growth, and low public sentiment.”The report points out that the start of the first quarter of 2026 has been quite turbulent, with a significant reduction in consumer activity.” As such a bubble? And not connected to the economy? When did something like that ever go good? As such we see warnings from all over the field, but to see what is real and what not is anyones guess. You know if we have some kind of register where all this is put down? A place where we can rely on the information given? Because as I see it, the newspapers are too busy starting flames for their digital dollars and both these elements do not inspire confidence, but that might be merely me talking. 

So as I see it, with all the issues going on, it would be my (optionally fictive view) that a President of the United States would be bending over backwards to get allies, to get an active economy (not merely stating that is is beautiful) but that might merely be me. Although, Canada has a person in charge who used to be the Governor of the bank of England, what does he think?

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January 11, 2026 · 22:21

Fear is key

It sounds like a clear setting, but you would be wrong. The added ‘evidence’ is actually a lot worse in many regards. I saw the ‘presentation’ and I was on board as I documented part of this over the last 12 years. I saw what was coming and now I see that I was more than correct and it scared me a little. 

So, it started when I saw a title, nothing more than that. The title ‘Why BlackRock Just Moved $2.1 Trillion Out of America (And What It Means for You)’ intrigued me, because when the words ‘Blackrock’ and ‘trillions’ are mentioned in one and the same sentence there tends to be some kind of fallout. Yes, I am always willing to sell my IP to these people and considering that one of them gets the over 6 billion a year (that’s for starters) with an outcropping towards 15 billion, so I am definitely eager to sell to them. 

But I am getting ahead of myself. The video is well worth the watch and you should watch it, because suddenly my 13 years of being called a ‘useless doom speaker’ is now the setting towards me being something of a trendsetter. Perhaps trendsetter is not the right word. A recognizer of instigation might be a better phase and remember (if you read my previous blogs) that I blamed the media on several settings for NOT informing you. This Youtube video shows you that this had happened before and the media should have been on top of this. They were merely hiding the facts for you and now that we are completing the third stage of a four stage cycle, we, mainly America has run out of time. Several parts are out in the open. The actions by Japan and Saudi Arabia should get your heart into overdrive. And as we are facing the final settings towards the fourth cycle time will be finished for all of us. I am fortunate that I have skillsets, so I might get out of this without too much damage but millions will not. And whilst everyone is blaming President Trump, beware. He might have accelerated things, but he is nowhere near guilty of the larger parts. Yet the headline ‘BlackRock Just Moved $2.1 Trillion Out of America’ should make you very nervous and next to the actions of Japan should get you scared beyond believe. Anyway the YouTube video (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iHuk5G1h-I) gives you the goods. The video is 25 minutes and they will be the best 25 minutes of 2026 (at present). So watch and learn/consider what is at stake. 

Now, any making the claim that this is a false video beware. I watched parts of this fourth cycle going into action and I grew up in the Netherlands I knew, but I never thought or was taught in school that this was part of a larger setting. But the setting that a 10 trillion company is moving over 20% out of America should worry you and that is before you consider what JP Morgan gave you in the last two weeks. The picture is forming and the image is a lot less friendly than you imagined and this is before you consider the setting that I have been telling you from 2013 onwards. And the economic boffins in the media didn’t know? You have been had and were presented a digital sleeping drug whilst the powers of money were quietly removing their handle on a breaking currency. A setting that was mathematically known. Although I didn’t know that until I watched this video. Today I learned a lot about how treason imbued the media really is. 

Should you doubt that too, which its always fair, never just take my or anyones word for that, read up on what I have been telling you and penally I now realise that life in China, Saudi Arabia or the UAE might be the next stage, because when this collapse happens in the next three years, anyone with dollar settings will lose whatever they have and as I predicted this (before I saw that video) American infrastructure is on route to the largest collapse in financial history.

Have a great day and feel free to to look into my stories and make up your own mind, because I always advocate never ever take anyones word without checking that, even my views. Tomorrow I’ll look at a setting I covered in 2025 but another view is essential.

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January 9, 2026 · 18:49

The view of a psychopath

That is in question and it is not on Trump or anyone else. It is the view of me. So as I ‘hide’ behind the numbers that the world shows, Am I the Psychopath? A case could be made that I might be a Psychotic sociopath or even a social Psychopath. All optional settings, but I need to investigate me, because the person who accuses all others from being nuts is mandatory required to investigate themself in that same process. We can go (at times) with everyone is nuts except me, but if you do not cross the t and dot the i you get an unbalanced equation and that equation is important in that setting and as such I investigate myself. 

In the past I have fervently given the setting that America is broke but the weird setting that no one else is saying that. OK, I found one voice, the voice of David Kelly (at JP Morgan) but is that enough? And the setting that the New York Times is giving us (at https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/us/politics/trump-interview-power-morality.html) is a nice handle to use. We are given ‘Trump Lays Out a Vision of Power Restrained Only by ‘My Own Morality’’ where we see “President Trump declared on Wednesday evening that his power as commander in chief is constrained only by his “own morality,” brushing aside international law and other checks on his ability to use military might to strike, invade or coerce nations around the world.” Oh, we are given “use military might to strike, invade or coerce nations” and I am considering here that I am the psychopath? And for that matter, what president, king, or emperor is willing to forego international law? In what universe is that acceptable? I get that we get all the Saudi Arabia mentions, but Saudi Arabia is a monarchy and last I checked they are massively driven by Islam, and the Quran is their manifesto. It is a basic setting of morality, the morality of the Quran and I accept that. But for a western leader to say that he is forgoing international law is a stretch too far. So when the New York Times gives us “When asked what was his higher priority, obtaining Greenland or preserving NATO, Mr. Trump declined to answer directly, but acknowledged “it may be a choice.” He made clear that the trans-Atlantic alliance was essentially useless without the United States at its core.” We see an additional element of the setting that America is broke. It is willing to forgo NATO, even start a war with NATO all to get Greenland? Then we are given ‘Trump Considers Payments to Persuade Greenland Residents’ (source: Business Korea, Reuters has a paywall). As such as Greenland has 57,000 people, even at $1,000,000 each it would still be a bargain. But the American stinginess will come cropping up at some point. These are all actions of a broke nation. All in a setting where Wall Street is willing to remain silent so that they can remain in the party. That is at stake and no one seems to be realising this. And insight that I saw this moment come towards us 12 years ago, the fact that ‘at present’ it is arriving slowly is also important. It is important as the infrastructure will have been left to rot for years and that is before this generation get to collect their retirement and in 2030 the get the ‘last payment’ paper. Some will be only 60 years old. They will go through the rest of life owning nothing at all. That is coming and when others are in denial, I can wait. I will recall this message in 2035 and show the world how useless the economic media has been, they will not be allowed to say ‘it was for the good of Wall Street’ it will be the final straw of treason they face.  

So as I am investigating my psychotic setting, I feel that I have passed. As a psychopath I fail because I recognise the need for international law and as a sociopath I understand that other nations (like Saudi Arabia) have values etched in religion, not even my religion and I get that. So I fail twice over. But the New York Times gives us another person with the psyche that must be examined. So draw your own conclusions. And whilst your at it, why Is Canada, Venezuela and Greenland important? Anyone who has hit the limit of their credit card knows. You either have collateral that increases your value, or you find a stash of gold. The stash is found in Venezuela where they have the largest oil reserve in the world. It is not particularly useful, because that oil needs to be gotten and it is different from most oils. It has properties that makes it debatable, but the Guardian reports less than a day ago ‘Trump plans to use Venezuela’s huge crude reserves ‘to cut US oil price to $50 a barrel’’, do you actually think this will happen, or will he sell on and pocket that $10 per barrel for 30 billion barrels giving him the 300 billion to ease interest payments? And that is a simple setting, he might be in there years to vulture Venezuela as carrion eater for all the oil they can get. And that will take time and he is running out of time, so here comes Greenland with all its rare minerals and that gives America the leeway to let it run its creed and a little longer. But in the last setting he want Canada too, all this nations, not because of National Security, but because its credit card is running on empty and Canada is not budging and I for one am willing to aid Canada in its protection (the protection of Greenland too as the Queen of Denmark is originally Australian). So am I the psychopath of does that title fit another person better?

And in all this the economic editors of global news are now in the dock too, because I don’t have an economic degree and they do, so they should have seen this coming a mile away. ‘So whilst we are given ““Ownership is very important,” Mr. Trump said as he discussed, with a real estate mogul’s eye, the landmass of Greenland — three times the size of Texas but with a population of less than 60,000. He seemed to dismiss the value of having Greenland under the control of a close NATO ally. When asked why he needed to possess the territory, he said: “Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success. I think that ownership gives you a thing that you can’t do, whether you’re talking about a lease or a treaty. Ownership gives you things and elements that you can’t get from just signing a document.” The conversation made clear that in Mr. Trump’s view, sovereignty and national borders are less important than the singular role the United States plays as the protector of the West.” He actually ‘hid’ behind “protector of the West” the folly of men behind tariffs, behind the setting of the 51st state mentions, that is the protector of the west? Begging for a Nobel peace price attacked Venezuela in seemingly contraction of International law. I know I am not the most versed person in international law, but I see a few hitches showing up just like that. And now he is ready to go to war with NATO if other means do not work out for him. So how is that sane on any level? Oh and for that matter, where are the United Nations in all this?

As we consider all kinds of options, I also recognise that I am the only one seeing what others cannot see, in the end I am an actual psychopath and I recognize the other psychopath in the game. Perhaps that is a truth, but as I recognized international law and President trump was said to have given the New York Times “his power as commander in chief is constrained only by his “own morality,” brushing aside international law and other checks on his ability to use military might”, so I might be okay, and there was the recognition of the Quran as a guiding principle for some nations. I fear that I failed the psychopath and sociopath test. Too my credit, I also failed the doctor test, I will apparently never be a doctor, so there is that.

Have a great day you all, I feel like the wicked witch of the west. It is 41 degrees in my room and I’m melting.

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January 7, 2026 · 01:22

As you question your media

That is what I am left with. You see I have always believed this setting to be truthful. I saw this direction as clear as anything on October 4th 2021 (yes, world animal day, in the story at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/10/04/utter-insanity/) when I wrote ‘Utter Insanity’, so I have been on this track for some time and I made mention of this in 2013 when the pressure was not that high yet. So when I saw (at https://fortune.com/2025/10/14/america-going-broke-jpmorgan-david-kelly-debt-tariffs/) where we see ‘America is ‘going broke slowly’ says J.P. Morgan, as national debt balloons and tariff revenue looks shaky’ and this was given to us on October 14 2025 (a few years after I did the math) where we see “J.P. Morgan’s David Kelly warned this week that while America is “going broke” it’s doing so slowly enough that markets aren’t panicking yet. With U.S. national debt now topping $37.8 trillion and interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, Kelly said the debt-to-GDP ratio—already at 99.9%—will likely keep rising even under moderate growth. Despite tariff revenues and temporary deficit relief, he cautioned that political choices or a slowdown could quickly worsen the fiscal picture, urging investors to diversify away from U.S. assets before “going broke slowly” turns fast.” And the bigger story is “Why did the media never caught on?” There is the Wall Street Journal, several financial newspapers and several other media. They never woke up? How much are these people getting paid? And my story yesterday was that it is time for the USA to become an isolated state. So how long will this last when the screws are tightened by Europe and the Commonwealth? You see, in 2024, the U.S. federal government collected approximately $4.9 trillion in total revenue. Now consider that they have NEVER been able to keep their spending under control and at present almost a fourth of that will go towards interest payments. So how long until things start collapsing? When you cannot make budget now, you will make even less when you have to make due with only 75% of that money is available for all manners of costs. That is what is out there and the media is merely glancing over this. So who will ask them the hard questions? Because as it seems the media is shunning and failing their duty and leaving the people in unknown territory. But don’t believe me, I am merely a clever person, but as I see it David Kelly of J.P. Morgan might be a different story and whilst nearly all media is glancing over Venezuela and the oil needs that America has, will they also feign ignorance in case of Greenland? Or are they buying the National Security gist that is out there?

So whilst we are getting “Kelly outlined that while the economy is facing a barrage of issues (geopolitics, trade wars, changing immigration enforcement, and government shutdowns to name a few) one of the key longer-term issues is how the U.S. government is going to pay its bills.” And I like it, because I was right all along and I got to that point 4 years ago. So as it stands this moment is coming within the next three years and do you really think that America’s expansionism is about national security of are there people who are able to get on the train that it is merely about adjusting the maximum limit on the Credit Card of a nation named United States of America. And as we see it Greenland and Canada wants nothing of that. Greed it the smallest and weakest of sins and it never stops showing its hunger and people like PM Mark Carney knows this, which is why he is the perfect choice for Canada at this moment. I reckon that when the implosion of America becomes fact the Canadian people will get him his own statue and I already know the place, Berczy Park overlooking the Financial district of Toronto. Because if Canada gets out of this near unscathed a statue is the least Canada can do for him. 

So feel free to question your media and for all those people stating that USA can never go broke, consider that no nation ever had over 37 trillion in debt and the interest is slowly giving the USA a starting find of zero. Then there are the bonds that are maturing in 2026. So when and where are they maturing? Because that comes separate from the $1.2 trillion interest bill (according to JP Morgan) I personally thought it was closer to $1.5 trillion, but I am not an expert, so I will gladly give the field to JP Morgan on this. And the media remains silent on the hardships that America called out on itself. 

And there is a second setting (a speculative one) we are given “The economist wrote that in the near term casual speculators may have some reason for optimism. For example, he pointed to tariff revenues raking in significant sums ($31 billion in August, according to the White House) and recent estimates from the CBO and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget that deficits for fiscal year 2025 will total 6% of GDP, down from 6.3% last year.” My speculation is that some people, especially on Wall Street figure on the setting that as long as the ship looks good, they look good. It is a speculation by me and of course I could be incorrect, but that is how I see it. But the markers we see (like Venezuela, Canada and Greenland) gives me the idea that I am right. You see, to let the US credit card get more, they need to show more and Venezuela does the to some degree and Greenland and Canada are the closers of America need for greed and greed is the centre piece in all this, which is why I oppose the actions of America. In the second degree I am a Commonwealthian, so I stand with Canada and my Australian side also stands with Queen Mary Of Denmark who originally comes from Tasmania. So I have two reasons to not give America any consideration here. 

But in all this the overwhelming issue is the media who is shunning what should be reported and I reckon that several stakeholders are seemingly poisoning the well of information. I reckon that the need comes more and more in focus to list those people and shame them on the wall of visibility. Because there is only so much that these people are allowed to get away with, but that is merely me thinking this. Others might have a not so outspoken view on the matter. 

Have a great day.

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October 13, 2025 · 07:06

Just like Soap

Perhaps you remember the 80’s series soap. Someone made a sitcom of the most hilarious settings and took it up a notch, the series was called soap and people loved it, it did nearly everything right, but over time this bubble went, just like all the other soap bubbles tend to go and that is OK, the made their mark and we felt fine. There is another bubble. It is not as good. There is the mortgage bubble, the housing bubble (they were not the same), the economy bubble and all these bubbles come with an aftermath. Now we see the AI bubble and I predicted this as early as January 29th of this year in ‘And the bubble said ‘Bang’’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/29/and-the-bubble-said-bang/) and my setting is that AI does not yet exist, as I saw it, for the most, it is the construct of lazy salespeople who couldn’t be bothered to do their work and created the AI ‘Fab’ and hauled it over to fit their needs. Let’s be clear. There is no AI and when I use it I know that ‘the best’ I am doing is avoid a long discussion about how great DML and LLM are, because they are and it is amazing. And as these settings are correctly used, it will create millions if not billions in revenue. I got the idea to overhaul the Amazon system and let them optionally create online panels that could bank them billions, which I did in ‘Under Conceptual Construction’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/10/under-conceptual-construction/) and ‘Prolonging the idea’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/12/prolonging-the-idea/) which I wrote yesterday (almost 16 hours ago). I also gave light to an amazing lost and found idea which would cater to the needs of Airports and bus terminals. I saw that presentation and it was an amazing setting in what I still call NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) in ‘That one idea’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/09/26/that-one-idea/) these are mere settings and they could be market changes. This is the proper use of IT to the next setting of automation. But the underlying bubble still exists, I merely don’t feed that beast, so when the BBC last night gave us all ‘‘It’s going to be really bad’: Fears over AI bubble bursting grow in Silicon Valley’ almost 2 days ago (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz69qy760weo) I saw the sparkly setting of soap bubbles erupt and I thought ‘That did not take long’. My setting was that AI (the real AI as Alan Turing saw it) was not ready yet. The small setting that at least three parts in IT did not yet exist. There is the true power of Quantum computing and as I see it quantum computers are real, but they are in the early stages of development and are not yet as powerful as future versions should be and for that, so as IBM rolls out their second system on the IBM Heron platform, we are getting there. It is called the IBM’s 156-qubit IBM Quantum Heron, just don’t get your hopes up, not too many can afford that platform. IBM keels it modes and gives us that “The computer, called Starling, is set to launch by 2029. The quantum computer will reside in IBM’s new quantum data center in upstate New York and is expected to perform 20,000 more operations than today’s quantum computers” I am not holding me credit card to account to that beauty. If at all possible, the only two people on the planet that can afford that setting are Elon Musk and Larry Ellison and Larry might buy it to see Oracle power at actual quantum speed and he will do it, to see quantum speed came to him in his lifetime. The man is 81 after all (so, he is no longer a teenager), If I had that kind of money (250,000 million) I would do it to, just so to see what this world has achieved. But the article (the BBC one) gives us ““I know it’s tempting to write the bubble story,” Mr Altman told me as he sat flanked by his top lieutenants. “In fact, there are many parts of AI that I think are kind of bubbly right now.”

In Silicon Valley, the debate over whether AI companies are overvalued has taken on a new urgency. Skeptics are privately – and some now publicly – asking whether the rapid rise in the value of AI tech companies may be, at least in part, the result of what they call “financial engineering”.” And the BBC is not wrong, we had a write-off in January of a trillion dollars and a few days ago another one of 1.5 trillion dollars. I would be willing to call that ‘Financial Engineering’ and that rapid rise? Call it the greedy need of salespeople getting their audience in a frenzy 

I merely gave a few examples of what DML and LLM could achieve and getting a lost and found department set from weeks into minutes is quite the achievement and I reckon that places like JFK, Heathrow and Dubai Airport would jump at the chance to arrange a better lost and found department and they are not alone but one has to wonder how the market can write off trillions in merely two events. So when we get to

“In recent days, warnings of an AI bubble have come from the Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund, as well as JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon who told the BBC “the level of uncertainty should be higher in most people’s minds”. And here, in what is often considered the tech capital of the world, concerns are growing. At a panel discussion at Silicon Valley’s Computer History Museum this week, early AI entrepreneur Jerry Kaplan told a packed audience he has lived through four bubbles. He’s especially concerned now given the magnitude of money on the table as compared to the dot-com boom. There’s so much more to lose. “When [the bubble] breaks, it’s going to be really bad, and not just for people in AI,” he said.”

He is not wrong. Consider the next one amounting to a speculated two trillion (or $2,000,000,000,000) when it hits, it could wipe out retirement savings of nearly everyone for years. So how do you feel about your retirement being written off for decades? When you are 80+ and you have millions upon millions you are just fine and that is merely 2-5 people, the other 8,200,000,000 people? The young will be fine, and over 4 billion will be too young to care about their retirement, but the rest? Good luck I say.

So what will happen to Stargate ($500B) when that bubble goes? I already see it as a failure as the required power settings will not be able to fuel this, apart from the need of hundreds of validators and their systems require power too, then we see Microsoft thinking (and telling us) it is the next big thing, all whilst basic settings aren’t out yet. Did anyone see the need for Shallow Circuits? Or the applied versions of Leon Lederman? No one realizes that he held the foundational setting of AI in Quantum computing. You see (as I personally see it) AI cannot really work in Binary technology, it requires a trinary setting, a simple stage of True, False and Both. It would allow for trinary settings, because it isn’t always True or False, we learn that the hard way, but in IT we accept it. That setting will come to blow when we get to the real AI part of it and that is why I (in part) the AI coffee being served in all places. And I like my sarcasm really hot (with two raw sugar and full cream milk)

That is the setting we face and whilst some will call the BBC article ‘doom speak’ I see it for what it is, a reminder that the AI frenzy is sales driven and whilst people are eager to forget the simplest setting, the real deal of Microsoft and Builder.AI is simply the setting that at present we are confronted with IT engineers making the decisions for us and the amount of class actions coming to the world in 2027 and 2028 (optionally as early as 2026) and as some cases are drawn out even yesterday (see https://authorsguild.org/news/ai-class-action-lawsuits/ for details) you need to realise that this bubble was orchestrated and as such I like the term ‘Financial Engineering’ so be good and use the NIP setting properly and feel free to be creative, I was and gave Amazon an idea that could bank it billions. But not all ideas are golden and I am willing to see that I am not the carrier of golden ideas, the fact that someone saw the Lost and Found setting is proof of that.

Have a great day, I am 30 minutes from breakfast now, so off I go to brekkyville.

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October 29, 2024 · 15:28

Laughing Out Loud

Yup this happens too and in this case it was an article that Bloomberg showed its paying customers. I am not one of them. As such I am attaching the image that made me laugh.

I saw it about 8-10 hours ago and it had me rolling with laughter. So what gives? First the setting of ‘Consider Re-entering’ as I see it Barclays and other banks are strapped for capital and bleeding a client dry (service fees and commissions) is a tell tale story towards any bank trying to make a living. There is no consideration, there is merely the trap they put themselves in 10 years ago. As for the “capitalise on the kingdom’s growing need to access capital markets” is even more hilarious. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has options to consider HSBC, JP Morgan, Bank of America and the 5 largest banks in China. All stronger and more able than Barclays. There is also Credit Agricole and the Citigroup. All in the top 12, Barclays stands at 18. So there is the first part. In addition I can hand you Rothschild & Co. The one bank no one mentions. It’s value was around €18.1 billion a year ago, as such I reckon it is pushing well over €20 billion at present. Barclays has nowhere near that capital or those connections. I reckon that Rothschild can access around 20% more clients than Barclays can (a casual speculation by little old me). 

So why this action?
Well it started in 2012 when we were given “Barclays is fined for manipulating the benchmark Libor interest rate in 2012, after revelations stretching back to 2005” It’s CEO C. S. Venkatakrishnan didn’t forget about that, did he? Then we get 2014 when Reuters gave us ‘Barclays sued by Saudi developer for $10 billion’, so how did that end? We got “A Saudi real estate company has sued Barclays for $10 billion (6.24 billion pounds), claiming the bank ceased pursuing lease payments due from the Saudi government on military complexes in the kingdom in order to obtain a lucrative banking license there” when we were given (source: Reuters) “The company, Jadawel International, a unit of London-based MBI International Holdings Inc., claims Barclays “hatched a fraudulent scheme” to secure the rare Saudi banking license, selling out Jadawel in the process, according to the lawsuit filed in New York state Supreme Court on Tuesday” One says potato and the other claims tomato. In the end as far as I can tell Barclays won the dismissal. It doesn’t make them innocent, but the claimant could not prove guilt (as far as I can tell). And last but not least only this year we were given that Barclay was one of the players in getting Andrea Orcel “derivatives linked to Commerzbank for the Italian lender in the weeks before Berlin sold a stake earlier this month, sources familiar with the matter said. Barclays and Bank of America subsequently helped Orcel to effectively expand UniCredit’s holding in Commerzbank to the current level of about 21 per cent, they said asking not to be named discussing the private information” now, this last bit does not seem to be illegal, but the stakes against Barclay (all over Europe) are increasingly high and now they hope that Saudi Arabia gives them a chunk of business before they are forced to hand over their bank to any of the upper 15 banks. I say good luck to them. Yes there is all kinds of banking issues I am not familiar with, but governments need to work with banks that are cleaner then clean and as such I am entertaining howls of deriving laughter if Barclay thinks they are that. The LIBOR scandal took care of that. 

And lets be clear Barclay didn’t (as far as I know) hand the statement “Mistakes were made in the past and we have sanitised our structures and people to meet the challenge that a customer the size of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia brings”, nope, none of that. We were given “Barclay plc is considering re-entering Saudi Arabia as it looks to capitalise on the kingdom’s growing need to access capital markets”. I actually wonder if they would be allowed in the country at present. There are seemingly better viable candidates and that is before you consider Rothschild as a contender. 

I get it. I also tried to access Saudi Arabia as a partner (read: future owner) of my IP. I merely wanted 50 million, a Canadian passport and 2% of the revenue for 20 years. With my believe (a presented believe) that the idea would give them 6 billion annual and their investment to that would be 50 million (for happy old me). And this is about as decent as it gets. A mere 0.8% risk and that is at the time of the presentation. A mere trivial amount and I feel certain that this would have worked. There was one condition Microsoft was not allowed near it. Amazon would be OK, but Microsoft is a no go.

This is why I contacted Kingdom Holdings and Tencent Technology as well. They can drive the innovation I brought. As such I feel a stronger contender than Barclay ever could be (Yes, I am blowing my own horn).

So as I see it, re-entering a market when the others have seemingly had enough of you isn’t re-entering. It is running for the hills to avoid being taken over. But I am not a banking person, so what do I know.

Have a fun day.

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November 12, 2017 · 13:59

A second view, what can we see?

Some might have wondered how last Friday’s blog was weird (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/11/10/two-streams-one-view/). That is not a bad thing; it is not with the reader. The writer (read: that would be me) watched too many data sources and too much information on several sides from several fronts, I merely illuminated one path, one journey ever streams of data. More important, even as the Story was published (read finalised) on Friday morning, we see that Reuters reported (at http://www.businessinsider.com/frances-macron-flies-to-saudi-arabia-to-discuss-lebanon-crisis/?r=AU&IR=T) the mention “French President Emmanuel Macron booked a last-minute flight to Riyadh as tensions between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Lebanon heat up“. I am not so sure how ‘last minute’ it was. You see, I already reported on “Credit Agricole SA is selling half its stake in Banque Saudi Fransi to billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal at a discount“, you see, I reported on part of this and I mentioned the Forbes part which had given me “International banks are grappling with how to approach the Middle East’s biggest economy, which blocks foreign control of local lenders. Some are positioning themselves for what’s expected to be a free bonanza as the kingdom overhauls its economy and plans to list Saudi Arabian Oil Co. in what could be the largest-ever initial public offering” already. This free bonanza is part why some of the most eager people trying to become a wave of new billionaires are there. If they have the Gaul, the vastly above average intelligence and the backers, those three will allow for the next few years to make another 300-500 new billionaires. In that light the move of Credit Agricole to leave did not make sense to me. You see, they are greed driven like pretty much any other bank, walking away from a profit bonanza makes no sense at all. The fact that these parties are trying to unload what they have to Prince Alwaleed bin Talal makes little sense. That is until you realise that these people might have been in business with the 200 arrested individual. Yet in this we see that the entire issue goes further when we see that ‘Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Arrested in Saudi Crackdown‘, so was the event set up for tactical reasons? Do you think that if he had seen his arrest he would have bothered with the sale as it is? The fact that his links with JP Morgan and their facilitation of the sale means that there is a lot more going on behind the screen. You see that share is well over £372 billion; do you think that the media is showing us all? There might be a crackdown, but is it a crackdown? Is it royal annexing of squandered goods or is its trial and a showdown where the other members of the Saudi Royal family are shown that disruption within the ranks are no longer tolerated. In all this what is next? You see, from the view we are given, the existence of these international banks are essential to creating a non-oil depending economy. A new economy set towards services, technology and pharmaceuticals. There is plenty of value in all this for Saudi Arabia to move forward, yet the track will be a lot longer if there is disruption in the ranks. France might have been hard on Hezbollah and as such they are a pleasing presence towards the Royal family of Saudi Arabia, but more important, Banque Saudi Fransi is merely one of several players with trillions in value available. In military terms France is a better beachhead for Saudi Arabia to enter the new fields of economic growth in several ways. The moment the growth in France is seen the other nations will jump like hungry rabbits to the fields of vegetables in a mere instant. France is leading the way because it is figuring out that the present course is not working.

Yet, is any solution so polarised?

No, it never is. Yet again the situation changed. Iran has not been seen in a good light and their nuclear options have been met with large waves of distrust. Not in light of Hassan Rouhani and the path he is on, but the realisation that there was a Mahmoud Ahmadinejad before him and that level of extremism is a danger to most of the world, and the clear danger and additional risk we see that when another Mahmoud Ahmadinejad comes after President Rouhani. It is not merely a risk, it is closer to an actual likelihood and whilst their nuclear knowledge grows, the danger becomes a lot larger. France and Saudi Arabia see that danger too and they are beyond concerned. They are not alone. At https://www.businessinsider.com.au/saudi-arabia-iran-tensions-2017-11 we see the tweet from Israel’s defence minister, Avigdor Lieberman:

  Lebanon=Hezbollah.
Hezbollah=Iran.
Iran=Lebanon.
Iran endangers the world.
Saad Hariri has proved that today. Period.		  

It is the view we have always seen and as such that truth is pretty much undeniable, so now the moment is primed to get this sorted and to get the changes made earlier, there is seemingly no downside to any of this, political Europe merely preferred to sit on their hands when it came to this terrorist organisation (Hezbollah that is). I believe that Saudi forces are considering that Iran will be more and more limited to create turmoil when there is no Hezbollah. As they can no longer facilitate through others, Iran must openly act and turn the world against them or fall in line with the Arabian Leagues and behave according to those voices. At that point Qatar must also adjust many of their policies, and the impact might not be predictable, there would be enough evidence out there to show that they need to adjust in many ways. I believe that this would end up with Saudi Arabia wielding the only voice of power, dissent in the Middle East would end to a much larger degree. As I personally see it, there would be clear benefits for the state of Israel as well. As the threat to Israel ends, it can focus on growth in a way they have not been able to do for decades. There will be clear impacts for the UK, Russia and the USA too. Their diplomatic games will likely fall on ears much less eager to please them. It will be about growth for the Middle East. I believe that this shift will continue into Europe and several Commonwealth nations as well. India might be a frontrunner to grow the generalised pharmaceutical markets. The US will have to water down their wine to a much larger extent and there are options for the US, but no longer at the vulture driven profit margins they used to have. A shift that will take several years and that is where those ‘free bonanza runners‘ currently in Riyadh could make their billion(s) over the next decade. It will be risky to some extent, but art present you run large risks and end up making nothing in Europe at present. So why stay there?

How right am I?

I could be wrong but there is enough evidence out that that I am more likely than not correct. Business Insider, Forbes and the Financial Times have shown these paths over the last 6 months more than once. There is one premise that needs to be pointed out. The direction that this path opens is based on two elements. The first being how the drill-down on corruption in Saudi Arabia is playing out and their true intent on shifting their economy away from their petrochemical side. The more correct those paths are, the more reliable the outcome is that I predict. The corruption crackdown remains a factor as this has never happened before to this degree. I applaud it but I also realise that as this becomes a success a new Saudi Arabia will rise up in the global markets, one that is not in internal strife and one that is breaking out all borders to grow their economic footprint. It is not the status quo the current powers in charge have ever considered and it will make a lot of ‘old’ billionaires very nervous.

This might not be a bad thing either!

 

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November 10, 2017 · 18:14

Two streams, one view

As I see the news pass by, events shown on separate media, I notice myself wondering if my life had any meaning at all. I was young and I went to the Middle East in 1982, I would return in 83 and 84 only to learn that there was change. Terrorists like Hezbollah and Hamas were only small and Hamas rose as I would see in 1984, yet I thought that change would be inevitable. I saw Hezbollah as nothing more than pesky small minded terrorists, a tool to be used by Iran and Syria. Yet even as Lebanon was trying to move forward, there were signs in media and some places that the US needed Syria too much, in their case dealing with Saddam Hussein and as such many of us thinking we would fight for peace, we only fought for the borderlines that the US decided needed to be in place. It must have been the late 80’s, I was not longer in the Middle East and not all clued in towards the events of the day there. You see DARPA had not rolled out the internet at that point; ARPANET was not available for the audience at large. So today I see that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Now we see another push against Hezbollah. You see Saudi Arabia has had enough of those terrorists and is pushing back hard, it is also willing to push against Iran. I see two issues. One is that this issue will be bloody and even as we hope for the victory of Saudi Arabia there, there are more than just a few markers showing us that the three largest players (US, Russia and UK) are not completely in agreement whether the Middle East should have one clear dominant party. The issues in Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Kuwait that have been going on for half a century should show that. If that had not been the case Hezbollah and Hamas would have been little more than an inconvenience and they would have been dealt with a long time ago. So even as I see certain steps being taken I need to wonder if Saudi Arabia is pushing for a resolution, what will the larger picture show as it shifts. As that unfolds where will the US and Russia stand? What actions, or inactions will they use to leave the Status Quo in the middle east in a place called ‘as is’? The evidence for the longest time has shown that they pronounce whatever allies they have, but in the end, they only care for their needs and options. Now, this is not wrong or immoral, it is merely the way any nation plays its game. It is not a new game, it goes back even before Nicola Machiavelli thought it was a god idea to write down certain options for politicians to be.

As per Friday morning, we see: ““Due to the circumstances in the Lebanese Republic, the kingdom asks its citizens who are visiting or residing there to leave immediately,” a Foreign Ministry source quoted by the news agency said, adding that Saudis were advised not to travel to Lebanon from any country“, so even as we can merely speculate on what comes next, the onus is now pushed on Iran and what it is going to do with its terrorist ally Hezbollah. There is one opposing side which was shown by Reuters (at http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-saudi-insight/deep-in-yemen-war-saudi-fight-against-iran-falters-idUSKBN1D91UR). With: “The dysfunction is a reminder to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that his campaign to counter arch-enemy Iran in the Middle East, including threats against Tehran’s ally Hezbollah, may be hard to implement” we acknowledge that Iran has resources and skills and they are driven, both sides clearly are. In my mind, is the additional theatre (read: change of scenery) a workable factor? It does put larger pressures on Iran to get the logistics and goods underway, which will be their weakness to some extent. It is equally an issue how Russia will react. They might not openly act in this placement, yet the clear support to Hezbollah and as the times of Israel states: “the truth is that since Russia began its open military activities in Syria, Hezbollah fighters are also learning Russian methods of war, becoming familiar with advanced Russian weaponry, coming to understand the latest Russian technologies, and in some cases, actually fighting alongside Russian special forces“, we might comprehend the skills and training of the Spetsnaz Malcheks, or the ‘Войска специального назначения’ as they call themselves. In one part Avi Issacharoff omitted or decided not to implement one view in his story. In the end when the Spads are not holding their hands, Hezbollah remains what they were trained enthusiastic terrorists, they are only an army in the smallest sense of the total concept, this also means that as logistics falters, as support dwindles the armed Saudi forces will be more than a match and should gain the upper hand. Now, this can only play out if there is a stalemate between Russia and USA, because if the USA backs down and Hezbollah gets open on the ground Russian support, it becomes an entirely different slice of cake and all bets are off at that point. Only the Russians could push Hezbollah in way that the Iranians could never do. You see, if Iran enters the theatre the game changes as they become a clear and present danger to the state of Israel, their vocal insinuations made that so, so as Iran is trying to get a foothold whilst Israel has a few ways to counter them, we will see a more underground event of escalations where Iran is unable to counter a war they never have faced. You see their words (Iran that is) might look good on the news and on PowerPoint presentations, yet in the true data parks there is no setting, because in the end, this generation of Iranians have never faced anyone like Israel before and their faith in their own internal governmental presentations will make them even less prepared. So at that point it is merely a scuffle between Hezbollah and Saudi armed forces and in that equation there is no option of even a remote stalemate for Hezbollah. Is that the goal? I believe that Russia saw Hezbollah as a tool for what they needed, the US has always been hostile and Europe requires high earnings, so the ECB is very much not in favour of any outspoken hostilities against anything that can downgrade their earnings, so they are seemingly steering away from these events as much as they can, yet I will admit that is just me speculating on European events in this case. Even as London is more and more outspoken anti-Hezbollah. Amsterdam and Stockholm are not taking that path. In my mind it is the liberal multicultural flag that they embrace, in that atmosphere a group like Hezbollah can easily hide under this ‘veil’ whilst hating multicultural events as much as possible.

This again has speculative sides, but it is based on solid data and events. You might think that it does not matter, but it does. As more and more nations in their liberal mindset hold off on an actual war on terror, being it for economic or philosophical reasons. Not being part of it is equally a problem down the track. So as we move back towards Lebanon and Hezbollah, we need to realise that not only will this become ugly to a larger degree, there is every chance that unless certain actions are taken the issues seen in Aleppo will be seen in Aleppo too, there is just no way to tell to what extent. In this we can look at Survival Analyses (or listen to the song ‘as time goes by’), where the point in time and the prolongation of all this is the setting on just how much Beirut will look like Aleppo in the end, time is the only factor required here and the people in Europe know this. So as we see the news prepare on how there should be talks and there should be armistices, they all better remember that it was their need for status quo that is pushing the consideration for a terrorist organisation.

Who in Europe would have ever thought that support of a terrorist organisation would be the cool thing to do on September 12th 2001? So consider that and now wonder why Europe is, for now, again sitting on their hands or even contemplating siding to the larger extent with Hexbollah? Yet there is also good news because with the actions by JP Morgan to push into large chunks of the Middle East and more notably the push towards the Kingdom Holding Company. You might think it is not related, but it is. It gives the view that JP Morgan is a facilitator for setting maximised profits and these profits are not to go towards France. There has been a thought that the US is not commitment, but as there is profit in war, the clear fallout of any war is opportunity. It seems to me that the US wants to get as much profit out of that as possible, so as the dominoes are pushed into place, we see a situation where the media proclaims JP Morgan to be a mere financial advisor. I believe that to be incorrect. Even as Reuters reported “JPMorgan is in early talks with Saudi Arabian companies about overseas listings“, that might be true, but JP Morgan has been pushing itself and its ‘friends’ into powerful places where lucrative revenues are not set in millions, but in billions. I cannot answer whether Credit Agricole did the right or wrong thing, they are pretty clever all by themselves. I think that the Saudi issues in play now are pushing for polarising fields of options and opportunity on a global scale. In this case my view will be proven over the next 2 years as we follow the money. They question is where the source will be set and who gets to fill their bucket list from that well. when the options are returned in billions there will be plenty of players, although in this instance I believe that the outside opportunities (non-Saudi based companies) are offered to the friends of JP Morgan and them only, which is again a speculation. Whether I am right or wrong will be initially shown in the next 20 weeks.

There are however facts available to see that there is a direction in place. Reuters show on part (at http://www.reuters.com/article/us-jpmorgan-saudi/jpmorgan-sees-more-saudi-firms-looking-at-overseas-listings-after-aramco-idUSKBN1D7107), some might think that “He said listings in New York, London, Hong Kong or Singapore might help increase the liquidity of these companies and make them attractive for international investors, he said” is the part that gives the goods, yet it is the part not seen and more interestingly not implied that gives power to it all. The implied part is seen with “Commenting on the anti-corruption drive, Pinto said: “If it is done in the right way and for the right reasons it is good to do for the future of the kingdom.”” It is however only the first part. The news given with ‘Saudi Arabia detains 201 princes, businessmen in $100 billion corruption probe’ (at http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-10/saudi-anti-corruption-probe-finds-$100-billion-embezzled/9136608). This was not a sudden part, this had been in play for some time. It was not merely the fact that at present 201 people are now in custody. Even as we see mention of Iran and the Lebanon pressures, we see that there is a larger play. His Royal Highness King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud have been on a path to get the nation reformed and moved away from oil dependency. In this the pool of plenty does not last too long when 100 billion get lost one handshake at a time as more and more people are connected to unlimited resources and wealth. As the press seems to be focussing on the crown prince and the ‘wild ride’ he created, there is a larger issue that is not too much in focus. No matter what the sceptics state, There is a clarity that Saudi Arabia is seriously considering that the age of oil is dwindling, as this happens they need to be able to push into other directions and they do have the wealth to create vested interests in pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, consultancy services and educational advantages. Forbes has had its share of articles on the matter, and whilst some look at ‘Saudi Arabia Looks To The Private Sector To Meet Growing Healthcare Demands’ it seems to me that 5G facilitation has much larger and more profitable sides as other providers are considering what to do, Saudi Arabia has the option to facilitate to the largest 4 cities and exceed in opportunity what Sweden has for its entire nation. When there is such a population (9.5 million) in 4 cities, there is an option to grow and grow fast. Now we know that there is a lively market already, but the idea that other services could be added grows the Saudi options to add markets and manufacturing opportunities through investment. I all this JP Morgan is potentially the spider in the centre of the web, growing in value and wealth from all sides at the same time. There is no way to state why Crédit Agricole walked away from those opportunities, but I feel certain that they did not walk away, the merely moved to a place around the corner. Even as the Financial Times (at https://www.ft.com/content/0e629bab-494c-34d0-8fe0-f71c8b089118) show mixed results, yet I believe that this French bank is moving into different fields, acquiring other banks and setting new goals. I have no way to tell on the why of it but I feel that moving away was only one as the clever people in this bank have agreed on a strategy that allows to grow faster and on larger fields. How?

We will learn this over the next 20 weeks. Yet no matter what is done and how the banks react is not a given, the direct dangers on how things escalate in Lebanon and with Iran seems to be crucial in all of this and I reckon that we will see the shifts quite soon. These shifts will not be through armed conflict, but will rely on the pressures and stresses that exist at present. In this Europe seems to take a ‘diplomatic’ stance (at http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_destabilising_lebanon_will_only_strengthen_hezbollah_7235), yet with “Europeans should veer the other way, taking measures that aim to preserve Lebanon’s stability and governance structures, and to prevent wider conflagration. Iran is clearly a key source of regional instability, and Hezbollah has become increasingly assertive in Lebanon” it seems to advocate a path of inaction, 3 decades of inaction have shown that there is no solution on that path, a stream of casualties, of non-actions and broken promises. Saudi Arabia (and the USA) both had enough, and as Iran seems to be an annoying thorn in the side of Saudi Arabia, they have seemingly decided to take Hezbollah out of the equation. This will be interesting, because the moment Hamas and Iran realise that the gig is finally up, I wonder how must tearful pleads of ‘negotiations’ will be shown on nearly every soft hearted news channel on the planet. Perhaps a recollection of March 2016 is needed. With: “Hamas on Sunday sent a delegation to Egypt in an effort to beseech Egyptian security officials to stop destroying its tunnels out of Gaza. These terror tunnels, employed by the terrorist group for nearly a decade, are used to store weapons, smuggle supplies, and infiltrate enemy territory – Israel – as well as carry out surprise attacks in which people are killed and soldiers abducted.” (source: Breaking Israel News). It reads like “please let us be terrorists a little longer, we need the tunnels to do naughty things”. There is every chance that this falls on deaf ears, because as Israel is optionally no longer pressured in possible two front wars, they can fully focus on Hamas whilst Saudi Arabia will only have to deal with Iran after that. It will truly change the Balance of Power in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia as the only true power in that region, all because to a larger extent, Europe decided to remain in a self-imposed state of inaction. After three decades they still haven’t learned that inaction against terrorists will never ever lead to any solution.

Yes, there are a few elements of speculation from my side, but it is based on gathered facts and it I do not believe it is less likely on the balance of probabilities, it is merely one optional setting in a larger game that has been played for much too long.

 

 

 

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