Tag Archives: KSA

June 3, 2023 · 23:37

Would you believe that?

That was my very first thought when I saw (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/2/blinken-to-visit-saudi-arabia-to-discuss-strategic-cooperation) ‘Blinken to visit Saudi Arabia to discuss ‘strategic cooperation’’. There we are given “Blinken will “discuss US-Saudi strategic cooperation on regional and global issues and a range of bilateral issues including economic and security cooperation”, the State Department said in a statement.” I have an actual hard time believing that. You see there are a number of issues that count for the US.

1. Banking instabilities.
2. Oil prices.
3. BRICS membership.
4. Defence spendings lost.
5. Iranian diplomatic settings.
6. Syrian diplomatic settings.
7. Outstanding US bonds with the KSA.

These are just 7 issues of a whole range of problems that the US is facing ever since they burned their ally the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The fact that Saudi Arabia walked away from Credit Suisse is making the US rather nervous. They had this idea that when the going gets tough, the purse of Saudi Arabia is there to bail them out. That is not (or no longer) a given. The oil prices are biting the US and cheaper oil is for them essential, even though Brent Crude Oil is doing close no nothing to stop that pain. Then the new issue erupts and I mentioned this yesterday. BRICS is no longer on the sidelines. It wants the western worlds to adjust their views and they now have the muscle to do that, with Saudi Arabia added they will also have the money to do that. I personally think that Saudi Arabia will have a close ally, as such the UAE might become a member too. So now you see how the words of Italy are too little and too late (see my article 2 days ago). 

Then the think I mentioned a few times, as China gets the Saudi Defence spendings, the US will come up short and that bites as well and these are the biggest issues for the US, as such Iran is hardly a blip. OK, it is more but only when the world sees that when you are broke you cannot push for economic sanctions on Iran (Russia too) and it is already selling oil to India or Pakistan (not sure who) and China, so that marble is faltering nicely. Then there is Syria and the largest issue are the outstanding bonds that the US sold. I actually do not know how many the KSA or Kingdom Holdings have, but if they flood the markets they will lose money and it will be disaster for the US, who will run out of cash long before Q3 2024. Which means they are 1-2 quarters short, or perhaps better stated at the end of their wallets they need to survive another 2 quarters. Good luck with that idea in the US. 

So when we see the Al Jazeera article and many others on why Blinky Tony is going to Riyadh, I feel certain that there is a lot more going on that w are being told. And I feel certain that it is not on the media. I feel that the White House administration will never admit to this Oliver Twist moment with “Can I have some more please?” No one would admit to that, it is just a little weird to see the entire BRICS setting a day early and now we get this. 

And he has more on his plate. We get that with “attend Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) talks during his visit, starting on June 6”. I reckon that is when he will make mention of two variables (Iran and Syria). It is speculation, but that is what I (with no diplomatic knowledge) would do.

I reckon that this is one of the hardest times for the US State department ever. It did not help that it was this president who stated to make Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah. So how is that working out?

Enjoy the weekend.

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June 2, 2023 · 01:36

Is it too little, too late?

That is at times the question. What I think does not matter, I can be opinionated. Yet that part is still part of the speculative side that I walk. Only those who are in power in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can actually state what is real. The rest including those think tanks are clueless. Well, think tanks have a deeper generic knowledge, as such it is no longer speculation, it is presumption. It is knowledge based on data and knowledge they have, it is more accurate than speculation, but how much more is depending on the political hands that they also feed. 

As such Reuters gave us (at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-ends-yemen-linked-embargo-arms-sales-saudi-arabia-2023-05-31/) ‘Italy ends Yemen-linked embargo on arms sales to Saudi Arabia’ this is good for Italy and it will help the EU, but how much? That remains to be seen. This 11th hour turnaround might have som impact, but will it be enough. For it to matter the UK needed to come across months ago and they didn’t and now China has the bulk of the orders ready for consideration. Italy as such might get some, but will it be enough and there the setting of ‘too little too late’ comes into play. Even as they include the UAE, the setting was always going to be the massive billions that the KSA had to spend and even as we consider that the KSA expenditure reached $75 billion last year, most of it is now going towards China. A safe bet is 40%-50%, but I reckon that China stands to gain up to 70%, all that revenue lost to the US, UK and the EU. The losses for these three are likely THAT big. Mine is not presumption, I do not have certain access. It is speculation at best, but how wrong do you think I am? We saw the courting by Chinese officials in 2021 and 2022 and now that they have made their impact Italy is now ending its embargo with a nice “praising Saudi Arabia’s recent peace mediation efforts”? Who are they kidding? The UK handed their revenue to the tea grannies of the CAAT, well a lot of good that did, China just took over and now none of them have anything to tell anyone. Well CAAT can state that they kept their heads high, so when OPEC adheres to the need of Just stop oil and 250K barrels a day go to China instead of the UK, what will have been achieved? I can tell you, nothing. Nothing will have been achieved, but the quality of life in the UK will go down further. 

We see now all kinds of changes and whilst the political arms give lame excuses all around us, the reality is that we opened our big mouths and there is a cost to that, but when the coffers are empty like most coffers in the US, the UK and most EU countries the cost of living will bite more and more. I tried to warn you all for at least three years and these options are all scuttled and they will not mature. So as Italy is making its step hoping there is some time left, I wonder if there was any time left. It is my speculative view that this is too little and it is way too late, but then my speculation could be wrong. You tell me, I honestly am not certain at present. 

Enjoy the day, the day before the weekend is merely one day away.

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May 11, 2023 · 00:38

The bigger shift

The news that caught me today is (at https://dohanews.co/saudi-arabia-mulls-launch-of-english-news-channel-to-rival-al-jazeera-reports/) giving us ‘Saudi Arabia mulls launch of English news channel to rival Al Jazeera’. I actually originally got it from the Financial Times, but they are behind a paywall, so I cannot use them as a source. So Saudi Arabia is now considering an English News Channel. This changes things. First E-Sports, now sports (Messi And Ronaldo), Formula one and now we get “A Saudi state-backed media organisation is considering the development of an international English-language news station, seen as an effort to counter Qatar’s flagship Al Jazeera network and boost the kingdom’s media influence”. I personally think that there is another reason. You see, if tourism develops in Saudi Arabia, the need for an English Channel rises and it’s need will rise exponentially. It also allows to dig into advertisement funds that have been denied them for decades. You see, the advertiser goes to where the people and the money is. The money is already in Saudi Arabia, but soon so will be the people. The stages of sports will allow Saudi Arabia exclusive news channelling and that leads to more revenue and more visibility. Even as we are given “The Saudi Research and Media Group reportedly approached media consultancies to assess the viability and scope of the endeavour, according to a number of people familiar with the project, the Financial Times reported. They said it will be the second-largest English-language broadcaster in the Arab world, after Al Jazeera English, although the preparations are still in the early stages.” And this is not all, there is another reason. As western media ‘embraced’ their Share holder, stake holder and advertiser approach to filtering information. They lost credibility and the audience. Most places no longer call it news, they refer to it as information entertainment (Fox anyone?) In addition to this, the west would finally get real information on Aramco (not filtered by Brent), on SAMI (not filtered by the pentagon) and sports. It would even propel interest into things like Camel racing, the Emirates Ice Hockey League and from that we could see the development of a Saudi Ice Hockey league. We know that they are still not a member of the International Ice Hockey Federation, but to see Saudi Arabia grow teams in Jeddah, Dammam and Riyadh, taking on the UAE teams from the Emirates Hockey League (EHL). We could see names like Abu Dhabi Scorpions, Abu Dhabi Storms, Al Ain Theebs, Dubai White Bears, Dubai Mighty Camels propel all over the western TV stations. 

If the west is embracing sports Saudi Arabia has the making to replace a whole collection of news channels that lost too much credibility. And it isn’t merely influence. As I personally see it the KSA lacks perception and awareness in the view of the non Arabian people and this could be a first step to open that door. Beyond that there are several markets where the KSA could set foot into and in this world in this current economic climate that will go a long way, what is important that the first steps are made setting the larger stage towards doing something and that is where it is at. Will it happen? This happening is a logical step after setting claims towards E-sports, Formula 1, Football and Ice hockey. Beyond that is the stage where the people will get first looks on the Line (that long building) and several other innovations coming towards us from Saudi Arabia. 

A bigger shift is underway and the US with their deceptive ‘entertainment’ like Fox and even CNN, they will have nothing to counter it. In the last 5 years they wasted too much credibility opening the door to other players and as I see it the KSA stands to add an audience of close to half a billion in the first 2 years, would you like to see the advertisement money on that pool? 

Enjoy the day before Friday.

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March 29, 2023 · 00:44

The snooze that does not wake

It started some time ago, but the recollection that The Conversation gave me was enough. I saw the message around 05:00, as such I needed some time to recollect the information. But we get to that in a moment. The Conversation (at https://theconversation.com/as-longterm-partnership-with-us-fades-saudi-arabia-seeks-to-diversify-its-diplomacy-and-recent-deals-with-china-iran-and-russia-fit-this-strategy-202211) gives us ‘Saudi Arabia seeks to diversify its diplomacy – and recent deals with China, Iran and Russia fit this strategy’ It sounds simple enough, but it is not. You see, the story gives more than one quote that is important. I prefer to focus on “Riyadh and other Gulf capitals as leaders began to question U.S. credibility as a reliable regional partner” that was the gemstone not the only one, but this one matters. You see, you cannot deny allies the needs they have and then make demands from them as an ally. Like cheap oil. Saudi Arabia wanted to grow its national defence systems and America said, well,  one part said yes and then congress said no, America said no. So now we take a small trip. A trip to ‘The Persian Gulf match’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/06/06/the-persian-gulf-match/) which I wrote on the 6th of June 2019, almost 4 years ago. There I wrote “The actions of the American US Congress have shown that what they regard as being an ally is not what an ally is; it is not even what a wannabe ally would consider to be. As such apart from your advancement in technology and infrastructure a much larger foundation for your national defence is seemingly essential in the immediate future. The shown delays that the European Union have shown to be regarding Iran, Turkey and terrorist organisations like Hezbollah give rise to the essential need of China to become part of that solution.” It was part of a concept letter addressed to the Saudi Royal family. I wrote this almost 4 years ago and now we see this coming to fruition. Saudi Arabia is on the verge of buying a renewal of military goods from China, not the EU and not the US, setting their coffers back close to 20 billion. And now the stakes are increasing.

This is seen when Reuters informs us that Saudi Arabia is agreeing to build a new petrochemical refinery in China. The stage is that the two refineries will be able to process over 500,000 barrels a day. The fine print is not known, but I am willing to make a serious bet that China will soon get its hands on 500,000 barrels a day extra and I feel certain that this will come off the allotted amount for the EU and the US. I warned several times of this danger between 2019 and 2023, look it up, it is done in clear print (at www.lawlordtobe.com). I did not see the refineries in that mix, but for some strange reason Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud will not tell me what goes on in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, what a surprise. But the larger stage is now taking shape. First the defence industry, then other enhancements and now the reduction of oil towards the west. That was the danger stage we all faced since 2019, and US congress and other Americans wanted to play egomaniac, they were the strength of the world. Guess what, you need money to pull that off and America only has debts, which now is about $30,000,000,000,000 and there is no way back. That stopped a year ago when America forfeited billions in revenue and that list is merely increasing. Now that China has a firm grip on opportunities all over the Middle East their goal is merely increasing. And I tried to warn people of this, I tried to warn the UK to step in or lose it all and as the Typhoon didn’t make the Saudi choice, I reckon they are missing out too.

The setting is “U.S. credibility as a reliable regional partner” that is what President Biden needs to resolve and he needs to resolve it now, any opposition from Congress and the problem merely grows and accelerates. That was what I saw in 2019, that is what is happening now. A stage clearly foreseen and ignored by the US windbags. To be honest I had hoped to serve Saudi Arabia in some capacity and optionally score 3.75% commission, which does not seem much, but over a billion it is still $37 million and if the work is for more than a billion, that bonus merely increases and assures me of a nice retirement parachute. 

So how long until that refinery is build? How long until we get hit by the small print that well over 500,000 barrels of oil a day will go to China? I honestly do not know, but I reckon that this news gets heralded when the refinery is around 95% complete. The timeline? I cannot tell, can you?

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January 8, 2023 · 23:38

Is it me? It could be.

Today I saw (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64171008) the article ‘Amazon to axe 18,000 jobs as it cuts costs’. OK, they published it 2 days ago and I do not watch every site every moment of the day (I have an actual life). So consider that I wrote ‘Girdle your loins’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/11/30/girdle-your-loins/) which was roughly 3 months after it was offered to three parties. It represents $6 billion in the first phase and up to $20-$40 billion in the second phase. Can anyone tell me why two days ago we get to see “Amazon plans to cut more than 18,000 jobs, the largest number in the firm’s history, as it battles to save costs”, here I was thinking that my idea could have saved these jobs and now that Tencent is 9-15 months away the options for Amazon are diminishing. Then there was ‘Overlooking the obvious’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/06/22/overlooking-the-obvious/) which actually also refers to an earlier article. There I set a stage with optional close to a billion in revenue with optional new corridors for AWS to grow, and with a new stage where we see a new need fro hardware and advertisement in new directions, Google isn’t even there yet. That billion was based on almost 200,000 malls globally, 116,000 of them in the US and that is before you realise how many stores players like Zara, Gap, Sephora, Apple, Victoria Secrets, Country life and that list goes on and on. So is it me or are these players too lazy, too cowardly and not in the right stage of play? And that is not even considering the hardware people might want, the options that are related to it and even several IP options that are not on anyones dance card at present. What are they doing? They are axing 18,000 jobs and they leave billions on the floor? What kind of technology firm is that? 

Now, you might think that I am delusional and I would think that too, but I refer to things I wrote in the past, something that could grow into a $20 to $40 billion A YEAR market. So tell me, how delusional am I? So I could be crazy, but I see clearly where this is going and even as there is some small risk (there always is), the fact that Amazon left it on the street gives me pause to think that they have a lot more problems and optionally different ones. Optionally it is in a direction I never considered. That is not their fault, it is not my fault, but they left billions on the street (as I personally see it) and there is even more IP (a little more risk), but as Meta becomes a reality it represents an optional $2.3 billion (my initial max assessment of the IP) as well. So as I take notice of “Boss Andy Jassy cited the “uncertain economy” for the cuts, saying it had “hired rapidly over several years.”” And there was me thinking he was on the ball. So even as I am not debating that decision, the idea of leaving that much on the floor, enough to give most of them an alternative and an alternative setting towards the future on a global scale implies that someone is not drinking the proper gatorade and they are going for the dodgy stuff, but that is my view on the matter and I could be wrong. I admit that part. When certain Big Tech (not Microsoft), the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Kingdom Holdings give no response it is time to consider that I am the one who is wrong, but I feel that I am not, my mind is still mauling the designs over and over and seeing more and more improvements, even with Real estate sides, with 5G wearables that are not on any list at present. I believe that either I am a bigger dreamer than Jules Verne, or I am onto something. OK, lets be clear Jules Verne came up with the idea of a rocket to the moon long before WW2, as well as a submarine when it was still not possible to have one for such trips. The USS Nautilus, the first nuclear submarine was launched in 1954, half a century AFTER Jules Verne passed away. So I might be a bit arrogant, but I see solutions that could impact the Line (KSA), malls and new forms of advertisement and none of those are part of the up to $40 billion (my maximum expectation), but that too is under debate. Yet that number is based on part of a 1.8 billion Muslim population and Tencent is a mere 15 months away at the most to do what I foresaw was going to happen one way or another. 

So, is it me? It could be. Yet I personally feel that this is not the case. As I see it some people have no idea what is possible and they are merely faking it for now. So what will they do when Tencent comes in and takes it all? Give you a lame excuse that they do not understand the technology? I will let you decide, but consider what we clearly see and what I published over the last two years. Yet, feel free to consider that it is alas, but these 18,000 people will have to go. There is no shortage for workers, is there? 

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December 12, 2022 · 10:44

Dopey and Grumpy, still dwarves

That is the setting and it is a strange setting, but it relates to ‘When it rains we call the kettle black’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/12/11/when-it-rains-we-call-the-kettle-black/) which I wrote two days ago. Yet I did not know there was more, and just now I come across ‘Saudi Arabia demanded defense firms set up in country by 2024. So far, most seem unmoved’ (at https://breakingdefense.com/2022/12/saudi-arabia-demanded-defense-firms-set-up-in-country-by-2024-so-far-most-seem-unmoved/), to be honest, I had heard some stuff in that direction, but I was unaware of how deep it went, and now I see “as long as it is related to the government contracts, they will have to have their regional headquarters here”, with the added “analysts said that the biggest players appear confident they can find workarounds — including the use of local partnerships and subsidiaries, as they’ve done in other countries — to keep the market open” and there the stupid factor comes into play. You see the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has had enough of fake allies, fake commitments and now China is ready to make commitments and as the KSA is moving towards the 2030 mark of 50% in country defence and China is willing to play nice, the US is set to lose a whole lot of revenue. So there is your workaround, greedy and stupid working in cahoots like Grumpy and Dopey, both sides of a currency that has no meaning where they are, it is the sales prospects that counts and they are giving it all to China. You can only be the biggest player if you sell and there were markers for sale events and now there is a clear understanding in strategic papers no less that China is moving into sales column A. So when we think through what Breaking Defense gave us on December 8th, the US better realise that the age of pretending to do something and doing something else as a workaround is ending and it is ending really quickly. So when we see the larger players like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Northrop Grumman, Leonardo, Thales, and General Dynamics. What happens when the representative $27,000,000,000 goes to China? Twenty Seven Billion no longer to the US, the dollar will take another dive and more importantly, the design of their stealth planes required some Saudi Funds, when they go to the Chengdu J-20, the impact will be seen all over the US, EU and NATO. I made mention of these dangers as early as September 2021. The fact that some American Fat Cats were playing stupid with a customer paying billions is a little new, but there is no surpassing the union of stupid and ego, it makes for a nice package, one that China could be enjoying a lot more than they figured on. And there is a chance that the strategic union between Saudi Arabia and China will go that far. Not only will the US lose their Middle East stage, they will in that same action lose whatever benefits they had in Egypt as well. And just to remind you on a speculative side. If China buys in this deal 2 million barrels a day from the American stack, the US is in deep manure. It does make the grass grow in Texas, but that is pretty much all it does. 

As such the last week has given us all kinds of revelations via several media sources. But the larger news is that State secretary Pompeo gives us ‘Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia a result of “bad American policy”’ and the bad news merely stacks. Yes Saudi Arabia is not squandering the connections with the US, their words and they are right. The US themselves are squandering it to China by playing chicken with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to appease their ego’s, and that is what is clearly in place and will shown over the next 13 months. You see, there will not be any 11th hour changes, if these regional HQ’s are not in place by December 2023 China will end up with a massive chunk of Saudi defence spending. China is happy with it, will the US be? I doubt it, but they catered to ego, so there you have it. It does not matter who Dopey and Grumpy are, in the end they were merely dwarves and as I see it, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is willing to make a large change and it will cost the US, it will cost them so much. I wonder how they will spin this loss, because at present that is exactly what it will become. A loss to their ally list, a loss to their economy and a loss of income. All handed to China for the mere satisfaction of ego. Government handed partnerships to players like Microsoft, Sony, Samsung and a few other players for the cumulative sum of a mere 1% of that, did you think the Saudi Government wasn’t keeping tabs? Silly bunnies!

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December 11, 2022 · 00:00

When it rains we call the kettle black

Yup an amalgamation of expressions and in this case it is a little more applicable than expected. You see a mere 11 hours ago I wrote in ‘Ruler of law goes metric’ “should the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia want it and limit the shipments of Crude Oil by an additional mere 1 million barrels a day, the US will explode in a stage of anarchy” (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/12/10/ruler-of-law-goes-metric/) and 7 hours ago we get from the ABC ‘China promises to buy more Middle East oil, urges Arab leaders to replace the dollar with yuan’ (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-10/china-xi-promises-to-buy-more-mideast-oil/101757852), it isn’t a victory when the nightmare scenario starts, but this is what the US was facing all along. Several world leaders learned the hard way what happens when you start wars on multiple fronts. People like Napoleon Bonaparte, Adolf Hitler and Wilhelm 2 all learned that lesson the hard way. Now that the US has a stage with Russia, it had to play nice with Chine to some extent, but it was already too late. Huawei was fresh in China’s memory and the US did NEVER EVER produce clear reports of the dangers that Huawei was. They got tools to make similar claims and none of them produced evidence. Now China sees a way to get back at the US. You see, if China buys 2 million barrels a day the American goose will be cooked within 2 months in the middle of winter no less. This is part of the horrific result of giving Wall Street free rein and now there is no second stage, no escape. The US had clear options a year ago, now not that much and the few they have they are squandering on the wrong priorities. And it is a mere 42 minutes ago when China and Saudi Arabia signed a strategic deal, which now implies that Huawei would get free rein on technology adaption for the Line, that straight building that goes through Saudi Arabia and optionally a lot more in Neom. Did you really think I was out of my mind when I was willing to sell my 5G to Saudi Arabia? This is happening a year earlier than expected, but no one saw the Ukrainian war happen and even less saw it excelarate the way it did in the end. Now China has the option to make the impressions in Saudi Arabia and optionally soon in Egypt as well. I saw this coming and no one believed me, but there is a lot more to Neom than most see, because the US media kept on belittling it and now as the truth comes out we see knee jerk reactions and large claims of miscommunications, and that is not all, if the Yuan will be accepted as currency, the Yuan will get a tour of the Middle East and Africa giving a slam against the power of the Dollar. Now, that does not mean that the dollar ends, but there will be an impact and the dollar will take a hit. All this to a larger effect because certain people relied on ego and not on facts or true innovation. Feel free to read the article (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20221210-saudi-arabia-and-huawei-sign-strategic-deal/) with the added quote “The Saudi Press Agency (SPA) also reported that Chinese and Saudi companies had signed 34 investment agreements in clean energy, information technology, cloud computing services, transportation, construction and other sectors. The agency did not issue figures for the deals but confirmed earlier that the two countries would sign initial agreements worth $30 billion.” It seems to be a simple claim that might not go anywhere, yet the adaptation for net zero carbon data centre’s in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and optionally two additional places are now supporting that my initial IP had a lot more power in Saudi Arabia than even I suspected and this also elevates the options that the Kingdom Holding Company (KHC) has in several places. What was an optional annual revenue of $763 million could start with an 800% growth and leading to well over twice that amount in less than 5 years. Should these data centres become reality than there is a clear case that these centres will be bought by European players, they would not have a choice in the matter and the US claim of danger to national security will not go anywhere, they played that card already. So when it rains, it pours as well as the interaction of the pot calling the kettle black. Two players that were ready and the others were not. 

It is in the end merely that simple.

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December 10, 2022 · 11:33

Ruler of law goes metric

Yes, we all have settings that are part of us, for the most the rule of law is accepted by nearly all. But when do we realise that it is not that simple? There is the notion that this rule of law has an Imperial and a metric setting and that is the core of what we face today. I got my view from the Canadian CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-khashoggi-lawsuit-dismissed-1.6676798). There we get ‘U.S. judge dismisses lawsuit against Saudi prince over Khashoggi killing’, s0 at what point does the US set the stage for events that took place in an alleged Saudi environment in Turkey no less? Lets look at the simple facts, Jamal Khashoggi is as far as I can tell a Saudi dissident, not an American citizen and I do not care what was planned. It never got to be. This person has gotten more ‘alleged’ assistance in a month than most American citizens have seen in a decade. Then we are given “U.S. District Judge John Bates suggested he was reluctant to throw out the lawsuit but had no choice given the Biden administration’s decision.” And I will get back to this in a moment. We are also given “Khashoggi was killed and dismembered in October 2018 by Saudi agents in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul” which is the supporting lie. You see, his body was never found, there is absolutely no evidence that he was dismembered, or killed. For all we know he is spending the rest of his days with his new mistress of 19 years old in a luxurious hotel on Bora Bora. It is equally speculative, is it therefor more wrong?

And we do take notice of “Attorneys for the U.S. Department of Justice said in a November court filing that the Biden administration had determined that Prince Mohammed, “as the sitting head of a foreign government, enjoys head of state immunity from the jurisdiction of U.S. courts as a result of that office.”” It is the stage that was always going to happen, there was no evidence of any kind, mere speculation and Daily Mail categorised forms of speculated innuendo that never goes anywhere. Lets be clear, I cannot prove the innocence of certain people, but I cannot prove their guilt either and a person is innocent until proven guilty. That is the law and there is no metrical version of that, it is imperial, it is black letter law and that is what the law is. The media wants you to forget this so that they can cater to the digital dollar a little longer. And you are the tool they are using for that. In the mean time Jeff Bezos (via Andy Jassy) denied himself an annual 6 billion and change going up to close to $30 billion in full deployment mode. This is the damage Amazon did to themselves and it is fine by my book, although a little less nice as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia decided not to buy it either. My loss and I get that. But below all this is a stage where the US is in a lot more problem. You see, they desperately need the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia assist them with cheap oil and I have stated this before. Why would they do that? The US has proven themselves to be a fleeting and unreliable ally to say the least. Do not take my word for that, look at the victims in Yemen and Syria and ask yourself, what did the US achieve? Close to nothing and now that they are at the abyss, the hangman’s rope has a very uncomfortable feeling. And as I see it, should the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia want it and limit the shipments of Crude Oil by an additional mere 1 million barrels a day, the US will explode in a stage of anarchy, just before Christmas and that realisation is at stake. The US overplayed its hand for at least two years and now we see that anarchy could become the turnstile of events. So do not think this is something that President Biden started. This is the stage 4 previous administrations colluded under (sort of) and yes, former president Trump might be the only one trying to turn it around but it would have been too little and optionally too late too. The previous congresses made sure of that. They were all too ego driven to see that impact grow and grow. And before you consider the immense state of “Khashoggi had criticised the crown prince’s policies in Washington Post columns. He had travelled to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to obtain papers he needed to marry Cengiz, a Turkish citizen.” You see the US had the option to make him a citizen from 2017 onwards but they chose not to do that (optionally it was in the hands of Khashoggi). So for over a year there was a stage where he had the option to make a change, optionally the US intelligence office could have prevented it if there was a voice, but there wasn’t one. This implies (to me) that there was no real warning, no real danger which now sheds a light on a lot of issues and it does not look good for the US. Hiding behind some metric version of the law was never going to work well and I have highlighted close to half a dozen issues from the beginning and the fictional book of Blood and Oil merely worked for my case. When you see all these articles, all these media evidence and it comes with words like ‘alleged’ and ‘could have’, how wrong do you think I am? 

It is sad watching governments trying to cater to ego and to the clear need of a commodity that their non-allies have, it is a pathetic view and it is not getting better any day soon.

I will let you investigate that, just be sure you rely on the sources you can rely on.

 

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November 23, 2022 · 21:35

Oil in the family

This is not exactly new, it is a stage that evolved in the last week. To see that we need to take a look at ASPI (Australian Strategic Policy Institute) which hands us (at https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/opec-production-cut-has-washington-questioning-the-value-of-its-saudi-alliance/) a mere three weeks ago ‘OPEC production cut has Washington questioning the value of its Saudi alliance’, in itself the question is not invalid. Every nation assesses its value towards services delivered, but in that same stage, the direction can be inverted and as such the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is questioning the value that the United States brings to the table. President Biden asked to make Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah. It has stopped deliveries of defence equipment to the KSA all whilst the KSA was under attack by terrorist forces who were receiving aid from Iran. And when we see “Critics of the OPEC decision say it will increase the price of oil at a time when US consumers are already feeling the impact of high energy prices. A higher oil price will also provide a significant boost to Russia’s struggling economy.” All whilst the US exports 90% of its oil, as such they are sitting pretty as well. But the article does not mention that, it is increasingly one sided. Then we get the second setting and it is seen with “Saudi Arabia has lost much of its prestige and is in damage control to rebuild its image internationally and shore up its relations with the US. To reset the relationship in Washington, Saudi-backed lobbyists have spent millions of dollars. Biden responded by visiting Saudi Arabia, presumably as a gesture of goodwill and to attempt some recalibration.” It is the ‘lost much of it prestige’, by what standard? The KSA gained massive silent prestige with Neom and the line, two stages never seen before and the US has nothing in opposition to that. It will be relying on the coattails of Saudi achievements for the next 20 years. A nation that is so broke it cannot fix its support structures, and that all before we see the damage the ultra right is making in the US. And where is the so called hypocritical ‘honest’ media? When did you see any clear article on the line or Neom? The mainstream media is steering clear of it, no doubt due to the (my speculative view) word from stakeholders. 

This is in contrast to the Vox a week ago where we see “Biden “wants to be able to reevaluate in a methodical, strategic, effective way,” clarified national security adviser Jake Sullivan, “rooted in his fundamental interest in making sure that the relationship the United States has with Saudi Arabia serves the American people effectively.” Sullivan in essence suggested that things so far had not been going well.” We see this (at https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/17/23423031/why-america-cant-seem-to-quit-saudi-arabia), it is showing us a stage set. We are given “Now that the Biden administration re-evaluates its approach a third time, will it come to a new conclusion? It will be tough to change much. The US, after all, relies on the kingdom as a major oil producer and economic power with important shipping lanes, a close partner in countering Iran and terrorist organisations, and a significant trading partner and number-one purchaser of US weapons.” But that stage is not entirely true, that WAS the stage, but as China moved in, we see a spiralling US economy. Lets not give food to the speculator’s there. China increased exports and services to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 24 billion in 2019 to 30 billion in 2021, some views give us that it is now approaching 33 billion and as Neom and the Line grows, China will gain more. That is 9 billion the US and Europe lost, more importantly China is now getting more oil and the talks implying that Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan gives us the indication that this will not halt any day soon, it also implies that the US is partially done for. Its games are now backfiring, should oil deliveries decrease by as little as an additional 1 million barrels US economy could implode with all the nightmares and trimmings that come with that. I personally do not care, I warned the US and the UK that there will be a price to pay soon enough and I made that prediction in 2020, now that this is about to happen, President Biden can play its games and let the media decide how much they hate the KSA and Muslims, or he can fold the game. The UK with its CAAT is in a similar position. They had the upper hand towards 2-3 billion in weapon sales, predominantly the Typhoon, now that money is most likely to go towards the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, China will be extending its arms for extended services towards Saudi Arabia.

The players wanting to keep Saudi Arabia on some kind of leash are now forced to fold their game. They lost to China and the damage is increasing. It is a fair assessment that the Russian – Ukrainian stage did not help, but that is how the cookie crumbles at times. As some stakeholders encouraged anti Saudi sentiments, they forgot that they weren’t the only players and what is coming now is hurting their long term policies in the Middle East and in the Far East. Did you think it was a fluke that the Silk Road was investing in Indonesia? It has over 200 million Muslims and that opens up new commerce borders and Saudi Arabia is ready to collect. I saw part of this last year and I tried to bank on it, but alas the KSA was not assisting (poor me), now that we see this evolving stage, players like Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and his Kingdom Holding Company will make increasing profits in new areas, all whilst the US and EU are given their walking papers. In the next two years their share will decrease by well over 40%, all whilst their political power in that region is most likely to be a trivial one. One ego driven stage led to the larger loss on influence in the Middle East and soon the Far East as well. A stage that China is happy about, the others? Not so much.

But I saw parts of this a year ago, so why did the media not see this? I am not more intelligent than them, but I can read raw data and that was where a lot was all along. But feel free to disagree with me, it is your right, yet when the oil valve closes a little more, just watch the chaos unfold. When you create a mobile industry you need to be weary of essential parts you need, fuel being one of them and the other solution is not as fast as people keep on slapping Elon Musk with his Tesla. All elements in a game where the people who have oil in the family will have the last laugh. Which remind me, how much longer will the US export 90% of its oil? Is there no shortage in the US? 

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November 16, 2022 · 21:35

I do not believe it

Yes, I am in disbelieve. This is actually a first for me and it started when I saw the article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63631877) there we are given ‘Amazon staff laid off as tech giants cut costs, according to LinkedIn posts’. I saw a tweet from Jeff Bezos pass by, but it read like it was a warning for others, not massively affecting Amazon. There we are given “Posts seen by the BBC include those from employees in Amazon’s Alexa virtual assistant business, Luna cloud gaming platform division and Lab126 – the operation behind the Kindle e-reader” and here I am with IP that brings $6,000,000,000 annually in the first degree and another $4 billion in total for the second IP and Amazon is in the dark. They aren’t seeing what I saw and the meeting with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is hopefully Friday. So both Google and Amazon did not see what I saw and I am a little doozy with euphoria. It is the win I never expected, never wanted and here it is knocking on my door. With a starting first phase of 50 million subscriptions I have more than the golden goose, I have the entire goose coup. Actually, are geese placed in a coup? 

So as we are given “Amazon’s share price has fallen by more than 40% this year as it grapples with a slowdown in online sales” all whilst Andy Jessy seemingly did not see my offer as a valid or realistic one, they will stand to lose a decent amount of revenue to others. In my books, I do not care. I care for my retirement and the ski-slopes of Canada. And as I saw it, it started to snow two days ago, so the new season is but a week away and I want in. First year in the Blue Mountains of Ontario, after that, we will see. The idea that they haven’t seen what I saw and what I so far have defined is nowhere to be seen. Even as only one part needs the Unreal Engine 5, the rest does not opening all kinds of options and it is not even close to the end. My mind did construct other parts, but I am also weary that this could accelerate congestion and that is to be avoided at all costs. 

But last week there was Google, and now the confirmation that Amazon missed the same stage, whether they are blind for the option is beyond me, but at this point I feel pretty hyped and that counts for something. Anyway, this was the setting 6 hours ago and my meeting is in 39 hours (not that I am counting the seconds) On the downside, it implies I will have another sleepless night.

Wish me luck!

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