Tag Archives: Las Vegas

August 26, 2025 · 16:59

When the masses start slipping

That is at times the boulder we are waiting to see and today Reuters is giving us just that (at https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-consumers-with-prime-credit-are-starting-slip-payments-2025-08-25/) with ‘US consumers with prime credit are starting to slip on payments’ was given to us a mere 10 hours ago. And for the non-alert this implies “Borrowers with prime credit scores tend to pose relatively little risk to lenders and creditors. With a prime credit score, you may qualify for more favorable loan or credit card terms, interest rates and reward programs” and when this group starts slipping, the financial world will be a matter of upheaval and that will drown the people of mortgages and other settings. This was a mere matter of time. I saw this danger about a year ago and when tourism fell down I alerted you all that the bed and breakfast people will be up soon. Now consider that California and Florida have at least 200,000 of such arrangements and 10% is now slipping. This implies that over the next year we can see this group grow to about 20%-40%, it all depends on who faithfully set the charters to repay as much as possible. Those who set a second setting towards more beds or a larger stage are truly screwed. Now consider that 20,000 up to 70,000 of these mortgages are now in disarray and likely collapsing on itself. The story gives me the benefit of the doubt. With “Late repayments over 90 days were up 109% year-over-year in the VantageScore superprime segment, while the prime segment posted a 47% increase year-over-year.” Sets the larger stage, where places are dwindling down on tourism, we see the setting change speculatively towards “Late repayments over 90 days were up 183% year-over-year in the VantageScore superprime segment” that point is what I see the point of no return. At that point bank and financial institutions are getting hammered as is the American economy. I reckon that this point will be reached by spring 2026. And with the quote “Even though in absolute terms the increase is modest, it shows that even consumers considered the most credit-healthy are also beginning to see some stress with regard to repayments.” The issue here is that these settings are on a 90% filled charter, as these regions are facing a lapse of over 10%, their food bills are up in the air. As I see it, you cannot gain momentum on an engine running on 100% all the time. This who had their repayments as high as possible and considered the chance of ‘bad weather’ are most likely to sit it out and that is the group that is way to small at present.

As such the expectations I had for America is starting to add up in the real world. As I see it Florida and California are up first, Las Vegas has had a tendency to make due with what they have, but the cracks are showing there too. California was until now one of the most economic viable situations in America, that is now ending and I reckon that after the fires and other altercations Los Angeles will not be a great place to live, crime will overtake the police there in mere months. But that last part is a speculation on my side.

Have a great day, Vancouver is just now coming into Tuesday (as is Los Angeles).

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Tourism

Tagged as , , , , , , ,

August 14, 2025 · 21:15

The small stuff

That is where we need to look, the small stuff. In the first there is the BBC, who gives us a story that seems nice in one setting, but in the other setting we need to ask ourselves serious questions. Now as a warning I need to give you a fair warning. I am a person of ‘decent’ taste. Yet in tis universe you have people that are ‘allowed’ to give fashion knowledge and I couldn’t be further away from that cluster anywhere else in this universe. So, when you seek fashion advice. I am not part of that cluster, so be aware. As I said the BBC has the first setting (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp8zwdy98k8o) where we see ‘Claire’s falls into administration with 2,150 jobs at risk’ and the hidden gem is already there. You see when we see “Fashion accessories chain Claire’s has collapsed into administration in the UK and Ireland, putting 2,150 jobs at risk. The company has 278 shops in the UK and 28 in Ireland but has been struggling with falling sales and fierce competition.” Now consider a simple truth. 278 shops. Now it is seen as a little speciality, yet how many fashion accessory shops are there? Now consider that there was a setting that the quality of life would be dwindling down as it has been for around 20 years. So in what universe does it make sense to have a cluster of 278 shops? In a world where there are “Over 10,000 businesses in the broader Clothing Retailing sector. This includes everything from large chains to smaller boutiques and specialized stores.” So, this has been going on for the better part of a decade and Claire’s could have been dwindling down for half a decade, but they didn’t and now they collapsed into Administration and put 2150 jobs at risk. So, as we are now given “Caitlin, 21 (left) and Amy, 16 (right) from Oxfordshire were shopping at Claire’s in central London on Wednesday and said the news was “quite sad because people have been going there since they were little. It’s a part of my childhood personally, said Caitlin, said she used to go a lot when she was around 11 years old.”” So, how was that realistic? I get it, we all want our knick knacks and that cluster can be found on both side of the specter of genders, But as we see it this group largely caters to one gender. This is not an issue, but with the dwindling down of the quality of life you cannot hide behind “But it is only £5-£7” in an age where many people have to turn over every penny to make it through the month. Don’t think I am ‘heartless’ (I kinda am) and people should be able to afford that once a month, but that is a far stretch from ‘once a week’, as such the setting was already a decrease of 75%, as such steps had to be taken years ago, but the ego of the people behind Claire’s had to intervene years ago. So what gives people the idea to make a ‘terrible’ setting from this?

The (sort of) hilarious stage from “The move in the UK comes after it filed for bankruptcy in the US earlier this month, where the firm said it was suffering from people moving away from bricks-and-mortar shops. The firm has $690m (£508m) of debt.” What were these ego trippers hoping for Unicorns? The setting from a $690 million gives a straight setting to my point of view. So whilst it is nice to give two people a voice, the setting is that every woman from 15-21 should be handed £5 to spend at Claire’s and when you see that isn’t possible you can clearly see that the people behind Claire’s should have acted years ago and not hide behind the wish for unicorns. Not when you are a mere 2.78% of a group and you are $690 million in debt. Seems a little short sighted doesn’t it? So, when we get “Claire’s and Icing, and is owned by a group of firms, including investment giant Elliott Management.” We might consider the setting that investment giant Elliott Management had made a silly investment in an economic downturn of the people. Some win, some lose and they lost. It is as simple as that.

In that same setting the ending of the article is sort of hilarious when we consider ““A lot of that category is sourced from Asia, and any increase in import costs hits hard when your price points are low and margins are tight,” retail analyst Catherine Shuttleworth” It isn’t merely that, the setting is that there are less pennies for the cluster they were aiming for, for over a decade. I am willing to go one step further. This step could have been predicted since 2008. I am willing to lay a bet that people at Elliott Management would have ‘stated’ “This will turn around, the economy is expanding. Wait and you’ll see” That is my speculated view, and I am seemingly right, to wait until there was a debt of $690 million could be construed as evidence. 

So this is the first story, the second one is given to us by CBC. I have written about this side for over two weeks and here I have a few issues. The story reads correctly and I have no issues with the story itself, but it also hits on a few sides that has ‘shortfalls’ (as I personally see it). The story (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/las-vegas-tourism-canadian-slump-1.7607707) gives us ‘Las Vegas is hurting as tourism drops. Are Canadians behind the Sin City slump?’ There is a larger setting and we love to take credit at times as it is the right of Canadians. So when we see “Las Vegas is in the midst of a slump, with the number of tourists down sharply as Canadians in particular avoid Sin City amid bilateral bad blood over trade. The total number of visitors is off more than 11 per cent year-over-year, according to data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, one of the most dramatic declines in recent memory outside of the pandemic.” After which we are given the numbers of “Drop in Canadian air travelers to Las Vegas” and these numbers are swallowed whole. My issue is that there we see less than 100K visitors, that’s fair and it matter, but the other side of the equation is that we see a top of 11%, so at what point do we get to the point that these 11% are in no way to be seen as the ‘hardship’ given to us, unless the 11% is a lot bigger than anticipated I reckon that we might see an 11% loss as Canadians avoiding Las Vegas and they are merely a small group of a much larger issue. If we now see a $15,000 bond for tourists, which might give us that 80% of all foreign tourists are avoiding America. You see, 89% of tourist should support the larger setting of Las Vegas, unless someone was living under the assumption that Las Vegas could continue to support itself with 92% filled. Now we get the betting place long out on a mere 3% shortfall, not the best betting setting for ‘the’ house, is it?

So when we are given the stage by MGM Resorts president and CEO Bill Hornbuckle said the number of Canadian visitors started to fall earlier this year and they hold some of the city’s top properties, such as Aria, Bellagio and the Cosmopolitan and part of the NHL rink, T-Mobile Arena. A dire setting for a company relying on 92% filling and coming up short 3% of that number. I reckon that more than one person are on the betting stage of numbers and when you come up short over the whole range by 3%, you will toll the bells of panic. 

Yet then we get the ‘goods’. You see, the numbers do not add up. We are given “As the director of the university’s business and economic research centre, he crunched the numbers and found Canadians contributed $3.6 billion US to the local economy last year. Canadian spending supported some 43,000 jobs in the region, more than those employed in the manufacturing sector, Miller said. That $3.6-billion figure comes close to the economic output of the local Nellis Air Force base — and that’s saying something, given it’s one of the largest and most important military installations in the U.S., with some 15,000 personnel.” In the first setting, some might find the ‘observation’ of “he crunched the numbers and found Canadians contributed $3.6 billion US to the local economy last year” I reckon they had to have these numbers clearly ahead of schedule as it sets the advertisement budgets (nearly everywhere) and if the loss of these numbers are set to 11%, the news is much worse than we get and the setting of Las Vegas is likely more dire than we are meant to believe. It implies that Asian and European visitors are connected to this and the losses are worse than given at present. And my view is warranted by other views. A source gives us that “Passenger volume at Harry Reid International Airport also declined 6.3%, from 5 million to 4.7 million” that number implies that the numbers are down from one source by over 300K visitors. I reckon that the bulk of tourists would come by plane. Another source gives us “Visitors to Las Vegas mainly come from Mexico (989,000 arrivals), Canada (886,000 arrivals), the United Kingdom (482,000 arrivals), Australia (152,000 arrivals), and Germany (125,000 arrivals).” That sounds nice, but the (as the expression goes) whales from Asia is the larger setting and when they stay away Las Vegas hurts a lot more. These 12 people represents millions of dollars and a decadent lifestyle. When that falls away the pressure isn’t merely 11%, it is a lot larger. The setting is a lot larger as we don’t have anything passed November 2024 yet and that is the larger setting as we get the larger stage of Visitor volume and convention attendance. I reckon that in Q4 2025 we are likely to get to see the larger downturn and when we get to losses of whales the larger truth of what Las Vegas is losing in income. As I see it, there is a larger truth behind the second part of the headline ‘Are Canadians behind the Sin City slump?’ I think they are part of it, but there is a larger truth hidden, America (basically its president) gave us all a headache and the fact that there are larger settings in play make it clear to me that it isn’t just Canada, there are more settings in play for Las Vegas and the news is a lot worse than anyone is willing to admit. The simpler setting (a highly speculative stage) that the loss of 100 Asian Moby Dicks represent almost the entire 11% loss that Las Vegas sees as represented, so the losses are a lot worse than given at present. When you consider that the ‘panic’ we see is more represented by 22% loss, a stage no one in Las Vegas wants to admit to is driving people like Bill Hornbuckle to near desperation, especially as his bonus is likely linked to ‘continuance’ of revenue.

So my speculation might be wrong but it seems to make sense. But I need to emphasize that my view is speculative.

Have a great day and don’t put it all on number 10 (it is crowded by labor). 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics, Tourism

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

August 11, 2025 · 23:44

The setting stage

There is a setting stage is sight, but is it truly a sewing stage? It is a valid question because these things matter. This who only see doom tend to be conspiracy sayers, not conspiracy slayers. We all have the rational of insight, but to what degree?

As I said in ‘The Implied stage’ five days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/08/06/the-implied-stage/) that the expected damage to American Tourism would be a lot worse than $29 billion. I speculatively expect it to be at least 80 billion. Now we get in the first instance mere hours ago (at https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/las-vegas-tourism-figures-plummet-as-potential-us-downturn-looms/news-story/1a3f72933d35041549684453c0756cc2) “The figures coincide with a downturn in international tourism to the United States and come amid President Donald Trump’s intensifying trade war, which has frustrated travelers. Las Vegas saw around 400,000 fewer visitors in June 2025 compared with the same month in 2024.” This is only at the halfway point so the damage is still intensifying. We are seeing this in several articles all over the internet. Then we get, AS (aka Diario AS S.L.,  at https://en.as.com/latest_news/these-states-are-feeling-the-pain-the-number-of-canadians-travelling-to-the-us-has-dropped-by-more-than-30-n/) giving us “Data from Statistics Canada shows the number of people driving back to the Great White North from the U.S. in June was down 33.1% compared with the same month last year. It was the sixth consecutive month in which a year-over-year decline was recorded. As for air travelers, the same figure dropped by 22.1%.” Lets make this clear, this is just Canadian data, I reckon that globally there is a clear slump and the whole of America is feeling that slap and even as it is not everywhere as bad as it is, the impact on tourism related settings is massive and they all have to pay monthly bills. This is the the largest unexplored setting. So as News also gives us “The city’s fortunes, buoyed by its large gambling market and appeal to travelers with disposable income, are often seen as a bellwether for the broader US economy.” The one fact that is not seen here is that these hotels made investments and in that setting payments are due. So as we ignore the fact that these hotels might be going short for at least a year, we get a edited setting. A setting  where Las Vegas (and other places) will drain whatever they bring to the banks to overcome these shortfalls. In addition we are given ““This is a wake-up call for the US government,” said Julia Simpson, president of the World Travel & Tourism Council. “While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.” The Trump administration did not immediately respond to Axios’ request for comment. While some industries have benefited from the tariffs, others have struggled and may be forced to pass costs on to customers. Some travelers have also pledged to avoid visiting the United States as a form of protest against the administration’s policies.” It is the last sentence “Some travelers have also pledged to avoid visiting the United States as a form of protest” I would be in this group as I take offense of our Canadian sisters (and brothers) being seen as part of the 51st state, as do most Canadians. Then there are the LGTBBQ groups that took offense to Florida taking a hostile stance on their lifestyle. Yes, I was making a funny, I don’t understand these groups, but I am not hostile to them. I don’t become violent to them, I tend to deflect with humor (or what I consider to be humor). 

That is the larger setting we all should have. There are too many hate groups all over the map. Anti-Semitic, Islamophobic, racial groups, the list goes on and as America showed that they were not ‘welcome’ they and their friends took offense and decided to go somewhere else. Now this might not amount to much, perhaps a 2% impact, but these are merely 3 groups and now we get to 6% and as they have larger groups of friends the impact merely increases. And friends are a weird group, they tend to feel that they do not want to be seen as ‘offensive’ to their friends and as such they have no problems with realigning their destination. As such Canadians go somewhere else and so do the Europeans. When you consider these elements there is no way that this damage is limited to $29 billion. And as they leave America, so will bed and breakfast places look at 30% less guests. They will suddenly have to fire staff all over the place making this tumble-block events all over the place. So, whilst we tend to focus on Orlando and Las Vegas as the impact is sene the clearest there, but take the larger tourist traps like Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Chicago and Miami they will all feel the pinch and the escalating of a downturned economy. 

Yet it isn’t all negative. Gambling News (at https://www.gamblingnews.com/news/las-vegas-casino-boss-challenges-claims-of-tourism-downturn/) gives us ‘Las Vegas Casino Boss Challenges Claims of Tourism Downturn’ I don’t believe he is right to the larger degree, but he makes a fair point. He gives us “Circa Resort & Casino CEO Derek Stevens argued that claims of declining interest in visiting Las Vegas do not apply across the board, describing the broader “Vegas is dying” narrative as overstated”, as well as “The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority reports that 3.1 million people visited the city in June, which is 11.3% less than the same month last year. This has led some to think that fewer people want to visit. Yet Stevens said this is not true for all parts of the industry, calling the wider “Vegas is dying” story an exaggeration, reported Fox News.” He gives a fair point and I do not support the thoughts that FoxNews gives us all with “Vegas is dying”. As I see it, Vegas will get wounded, it will lose air, but it will not go down. When it all comes to blows Las Vegas will survive. Still Derek Stevens has a valid point that it will not hit across the board. Some will get hit harder, some less so. I reckon those who diversified their income settings have a much bigger chance to make it through. The one statement I disagree with is “He thought that by next year, both tourism and the broader Las Vegas economy would be on more solid ground.” I disagree because President Trump will at present remain in office until 2029 and if he doesn’t do an about face, America will suffer until at least 2028. By next year some other tourist places will gain momentum in part at present by all the people who took it as ‘an alternative’ will now see that their alternative was excellent and that will drive more people to alternative destinations. So many places will not be dead, but they will suffer the hardship of over-tourism getting replaced by a massive streak of under-tourism and there is a chance that it will set a new record explosion of crimes in America, so they will see what London has been experiencing for 5-10 years. We are given “In London, the most recent crime data (April 2024 – March 2025) indicates a rise in overall crime, with approximately 132.6 crimes per 1,000 people, according to Plumplot.” This implies that a tourist to London has a one in eight chance of getting robbed, or some other setting towards losing what they have. At that point people are reassessing their chances and when that comes to America, the tourist settings will merely dwindle down to a much larger degree. It is a new setting of cause and effect now to a string of domino’s. One domino pushed over the next and the next, but now we get a domino chain effect. The first domino pushes over the next which is up to 50% larger than the previous one, the second pushed over the third domino up to 50% larger than the second domino and so on. This stage is overlooked as people focus on one field but this setting is larger, it affects a lot more and that becomes an increasing scope. This is what I predicted 5 days ago and now we see the domino’s topple. I might have been ‘cautious’ with my $80 billion damage, I know that but as far as I can see it, I got there ahead of media (yet again) and when the people wake up because the media tried to keep them asleep there will be a larger impact. How is anyones guess and I have no clue because this is the kind of impact no one can really predict as there is no data aiding us. So how is AI helping you now? Will it have a meltdown calling itself a failure or will it show that capital punishment is the only solution? The fact that there is no data on this, is why I never considered it a solution, not yet anyway. 

So have a great day and I reckon that you need to look at where your next vacation should be, there is every chance that it will be the last vacation a lot of us will be able to afford for some time to come.

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics, Tourism

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 14, 2025 · 13:04

The price of stupidity

That is at the foundation of the severe conditioned setting of what can now laughingly called American stupidity. CBC reported yesterday ‘Conferences relocating to Canada over harsh new U.S. border measures’ (at https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6758054) with the underlying text “As Canadian travel to the U.S. continues to drop, CBC News has found several professional conferences relocated to Canada to avoid harsh new U.S. border security measures. One sociologist describes being grilled by U.S. customs officers who searched his phone and wallet.” As such not only is there grilling (and no grilled sandwich), but searching the phone and wallet? I wonder what deeds custom officers have to copy this all to third and fourth party intelligence gathering settings. I get that a passport needs to be checked (read: validated), but a phone? I might agree that a wallet could be seen as reasonable. But consider this. Tourism already is down and now conferences are the new goal? Consider that the CES has over 100,000 attendees and the SEMA show over 150,000 attendees. Then there are the defence shows and IT shows. How many events will it take for these show runners to go to Vancouver, Toronto, or Ottawa? Is this the price of stupidity? How many millions will America lose in 2026? How long until the larger players will offer their shows in Abu Dhabi where the tourism spike is going on. How long until only gamblers will visit Las Vegas? Nevada have poured serious cash into Las Vegas and now that it is regarded as hostile terrain, what will they lose? There is little interest to move to London or Paris (too touristy saturated), but Dubai and Abu Dhabi have options. Soon so will Monte Carlo and now there is already space in Toronto among the 14 locations are Metro Toronto Convention Centre and Sheraton Centre Toronto Hotel. Ottawa has the Ottawa Convention Centre and a few others. Basically should you consider the Mississauga location (Oracle) for a place to show the CES, America will have close to two dozen locations for people no longer interested in America violating their privacy and as the Canadian places (optionally the UAE too) show bang for their bucks. Plenty of organizers will relocate their shows. 

And there is data. CBC reported in late April that ‘Nearly 900,000 fewer people went to the U.S. in March as cross-border travel plummets’ so what damage will Florida with their Universal and Disney parks endure? Especially as their is a great alternative in Abu Dhabi. As such there is a larger case we see when we consider the Oracle CloudWorld. It was in Las Vegas, September 9–12, 2024. As such Oracle now has a larger case to present their 2025 show in Mississauga or even in Dubai (if the clientele is enticing enough). Dubai has a whole highway of entertainment structures. There is the option of renting a boat for their guests and make a presentation on the Alexandra Dhow Cruise in Dubai Marina. A setting that reeks of elegance and fine foods. America is no longer the place to be, their U.S. customs protocols made sure of that. And I only mention two locations. And after the Guardian reported last week that ‘Stockholm rejects ‘bizarre’ US letter urging city to scrap diversity initiatives’, I reckon that Stockholm would be willing to cater to American shows that now seek entertainment elsewhere. Don’t let the location fool you. Stockholm is magical and it has an amazing cuisine all over town. I reckon that soon enough the high chefs in America will seek their fortune elsewhere. So how much longer will America cater to the stupid minded? I reckon this might be the last year and anyone thinking they will be safe is likely to unknowingly handing their IP to U.S. customs (they might be in denial, as these costume officers will claim that it is protocol). So how long until that damage becomes completely non-reversible?

I will let you decide. And as I see it, Iceland, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and France might have similar issues down the line. So how many tourists and conference dwellers will miss America out of from now on until December 2026? Oh and before I forget Saudi Arabia is about to set new settings in at least 3 locations, so there are these locations to consider too. 

So, good luck with the excuse of protocol and watch what the price of stupidity is about to cost America, as one source gives me “The index now sits just above the historical low of 50 in June 2022. Current Economic Conditions registered at 56.5, compared to 63.8 in March. The Index of Consumer Expectations was at 47.2, compared to 52.6 in March.” So economic expectations is at least 5 points down in about 2 months. So what more losses can we see? Canada looks forward to having a great year in catering to conferences and tourists. As is the UAE. But America is doing great (apparently), as Reuters gives us “Approval of Trump’s economic stewardship rose to 39% from 36%. Trump began his term with a 47% approval rating, and saw his popularity tick” as such how many more shocks to the system can America survive? As I personally see it: retail, tourism, and business have been hit and will be hit a few times more this year, so by the time high summer hits places like Venice beach and other tourist location will suffer the lack of tourist. But not to fret, you can find them in Canada and a few other places.

And as the larger places expand Mississauga and add a European location or one in the UAE, we will see a larger exodus to these safer places and that is a trend that is set to continue until deep into 2027, because conference are usually planned up to two years in advance. Oracle might be the most visible one but I reckon they are not alone. All these players (like Snowflake and Palantir) have customers very worried about their IP and they will press for change a lot louder than I am.

So have a great day and if you want to have fun, pass US customs with a box of 5.25” floppies and see the question marks on their eyes as they are uncertain how to proceed. 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Law, Media, Politics, Tourism

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

January 9, 2024 · 06:59

Just a metric?

That is at times a question and it is also at times a recognition. You see, metrics are at times just that, metics. We can sing high and low, but metrics are most of the times in a vacuum, that is until someone uses it to weave a story. You, I, we all do that. Some are clearly shown to be related, others are less so. As such the story that we see in the Khaleej Times (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/aviation/dubai-airport-could-join-100-million-passenger-club-this-year) could be either (initially). You see, the ‘Dubai airport could join ‘100 million passenger club’ this year’ and for the most will sing that it is just as meaningless as them joining the mile high club. But some comedians will point out that they were alone getting there. So as such it seemed like a nice thing to achieve. I saw the airport on YouTube and it does look impressive. 

So, when you consider it the numbers in a larger context it now implies that Dubai International Airport is about to become the busiest airport in the world. Leaving Heathrow far behind it and beating by a fair margin New York, Los Angeles and several other airports behind them which they should have been competing against. They are about to overtake them all. In 2022 they were fifth, they are about to get pole position in airport traffic. This implies that this airport deals with 11,415 passengers EVERY HOUR, that is some achievement, especially as Toronto Pearson International Airport (in 29th position) can’t seem to get anything right at the moment. These two metrics matter because this implies that Dubai is getting things done right and there is a connected metric. You see, I wrote about tourism (Saudi Arabia and UAE alike) and now we see a new metric. When you consider that many can only spend their holiday funds once, that a slice who are going to Dubai will not be able to go anywhere else. As such these other places will lose some visitors and that results in lower revenue in those places. I made mention of that a few days ago, but now you see a connected metric. For whatever reason these people have decided on Dubai (and the UAE) that is the underlying metric that should not be ignored. 

And the speeches are also setting the new stage that they are ready to receive 20% more. Yes, all nations will make presentations and the UAE is no different than other nations in that regard. Yet the larger station is that Dubai has a growing population for tourism. It has more options for tourism than many other nations and when you add Abu Dhabi and the sports they both hold, the appeal start making sense. People just want a nice time. They want a place where they can relax and Dubai is one of the places that delivers. Those who want to play hard go to a ditch (massively drunk) in Las Vegas, those who want to have a great time, are now deciding to give Dubai a try and the more it delivers the faster that tourism part grows. Now compare that to waiting lines. Escape from the Gringotts (Harry Potter Orlando) 45-120 minutes and some times at Disney (Orlando and Paris) are close to that horrendous. So when you can select a place with a lot less waiting times I could not see any clear numbers on Warner Brothers Abu Dhabi, but several sources claim you can see the entire WB park in a day. 

Now consider all the other places these two locations have and also consider Deep Dive Dubai (not really for the young tourists) and you end up going to a place with the most amazing and most unique diving experience that you cannot get anywhere else in the world. So others want to think this is a fab, a fashion moment? The world stood still and now others are taking charge to offer what people might like. I use the word ‘might’ because the consumer is a fickle person with no real destination in mind. Yet, as I see it. Dubai with its malls, its theme parks, even a skating rink and two Hockey teams (the real hockey on solid water) and now a growing football offering. It seems that they are doing everything right and the fact that they are about to break the 100,000,000 served passengers a year line is a pretty good indicator that they are doing it all very  right.

Enjoy the day and if you go to Deep Dive Dubai be nice to yourself and do not watch Jaws before the dive.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Tourism

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

July 31, 2023 · 23:09

A wild side to creativity

To get to this point, I need to take you on a little tour into my (optionally devious) mind. In the mid to late 80’s I had an idea. An idea any horny man in his twenties will have. In this setting (I was an amateur photographer) I was talking to Claudia Schiffer, convincing her to pose for me naked for one picture. We would then edit the image to show the bikini she would pose for and that one picture would ensure hundreds of bikini shots and she would get a royalty for every photograph produced. Yes, you laugh now, but in those days Photoshop was merely a whisper, the editing options we now take for granted did not even exist in those days. It was a slightly delusional idea and guess what, it never happened (big surprise). That was the premise that happened a long time ago, decades even. Today I had another daydream, I dozed off and I lost a competition, my consolation price was taking a picture of Mischa Barton (no idea how she got into the mix), she was wearing a very transparent top (extremely transparent) and I had to make a handbag picture. So I had her hold it in front of her face, her arms hid the nipples and the byline was ‘I do not use my face to promote a product’. You are laughing now, but there is a lot more to this. You see, in the early 90’s I tested a product from Macromedia called Director. 

The product had things that were beyond imagination (in those days). That image is needed, as it sets the stage for the now. You see when we consider that old program, it had options for presentations that many have forgotten about. What was the case is that you could set a stage, complete with people and objects and it would get us the setting like below (now in full 3d).

The 3d model optionally starts naked, but can be dressed like a barbie, we add the elements, accessories, the lights and the image starts to shape. The rectangle is what the camera sees and when we are happy a 24 bit image is created from scratch. You think this is a joke, it is not. Consider that there are 75,000,000 professional photographers in the world, the amateur photographer group is at least 4 times bigger, so we now have an optional population that is closer to half a billion. Consider that a photo model costs $200 upwards to $15000 an hour, and it does not need to include people, there are plenty of photographers that go for food, cars, luxury items and now we get a entirely new stage. It is not merely the photographer. It becomes a prototyping scene for what some call AI (which does not yet exist), but the deeper machine learning systems rely on data and now we have a system that offers creation whilst that data feeds the learning machines, and besides that, it becomes a 24 bit photographic prototyping system, something that doesn’t even exist at present. All these students can work deep into the night without worrying about the $200 an hour taximeter called the photo model. I think that this all escalated when I was thumped to death by these ‘free slot machine’ advertisements. We all think it is a scam, but this seems to be about free slots and that makes no sense, unless an operator like Las Vegas wants to test a prototype new slot machines and tweak it to be the most efficient one until it is release to the money feeding audience in Las Vegas. A free slot machine system makes a lot more sense now, does it not? You can feed the revenue beast all you like, but until you find the angle that does not cost you money, optionally making you money in the process the endeavour is nothing more than a money pit. And in comes the hungry gamers who will never go to Las Vegas in the first place, now there is an optional need. 

Director was a brilliant idea, especially in an age when certain graphical options were not available (neither was computing power) and it set a new tone. It also gave us a new direction to consider and even as Director was a multimedia application authoring platform created by Macromedia and managed by Adobe Systems until its discontinuation ten years ago, it was a great idea in an age when there was nothing. It is now surpassed, but I do not think that the concept should be forgotten. For this we could look at the 1991 comedy ‘Others peoples money’ with Danny deVito. It was about the New England Wire & Cable Company and how one man’s need for greed takes it to the slaughter. The nice evolution was that the lawyer (Penelope Ann Miller) searches for a solution and finds it in a Japanese automaker that wants to hire New England Wire & Cable to manufacture stainless steel wire cloth for making automobile airbags, something which will make the company profitable again on a new expanding industrial product.  That is where we are, finding alternative uses for good products because Director was that. I merely wonder if anyone considered making it a two sided solution one one side a photographic prototyping tool, on the other side a system to teach deeper machine learning solutions a way to learn graphical sides to an artsy problem, one that requires containers loads of data, if not a load more than that. 

Well that was my Monday being creative, have a nice day.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , ,

April 20, 2023 · 10:21

Is UNemployed a thing?

In the first we need to put a pin in the end of yesterdays mentions. The presentation I saw yesterday l saw literally blew me away. It involved Snowflake and Coalesce. It makes the show for the new Bentley look feeble. What a show and what an approach. Players like Aramco need to taker a look, because the future of data mobility was shown to me and they can check it out in June in the SumIT in June in Las Vegas. They would be able to show people like Brent oil how far they are behind the curve. 

But today it is about something else. It is about the Dominion (not the Star Trek one), they went after Fox and Fox was eager to settle, the spinners of lies and misdirection got their First Amendment handed to them in a few ways, which beckons the thought ‘Should Fox be allowed to  exist as a news organisation?’ But about that more at a later date. 

First up is the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/apr/19/the-legal-problems-still-overshadowing-fox-news-after-its-dominion-settlement) who gives us ‘The legal problems still overshadowing Fox News after its Dominion settlement’ there we see “Fox agreed to pay voting equipment company Dominion US$787.5m, ending a dispute over whether the network and its parent company knowingly broadcast false and outlandish allegations that Dominion was involved in a plot to steal the 2020 election” in this I personally believe that they settled because of the roll call to the court. These people would paint themselves in a corner to such an extent that it would cost more then viewers. Several of them would pretty much end their TV careers, not even E! Entertainment would hire them as a joke. Yes, it is a personal view, but I think I am hitting the nail on the head in one. In the second degree the fact that Rupert Murdoch would be in the dock as well. So what will the Wall Street Journal do? What will the Times, or several of its other papers? Spin the story and lose a bulk of readers, or just keep silent? It is anyones guess and the setting is far from over, the settlement which was only $787,500,000.00 is small fries against the claim that Smartmatic launched and it has been given a green light. Their claim comes in at $2,700,000,000 which is decently higher and even if Fox settles that one, it will be a much higher settlement. Smartmatic has no free ride, it must prove malice and even as Fox wants to hide behind ‘reporting’ and relying on the freedom of the press. But with the Dominion settlement the stage of lies has been proven and there the shoe becomes tight. You see, when you report on lies is that freedom of the press? And there is a catch the Smartmatic people must prove the addition ‘knowingly’ and that is a much harder case. There are the bulk of the views which include that Tucker guy who will still enter the dock for testimonies. I wonder how many of them will rely on ‘I don’t recall that’, still if the attorneys taped the events, they might have a decent case (in case Fox accidentally loses all their recordings) in addition there is one reflection from the side of Fox as well. It is Bill O’Reilly, who (at https://www.billoreilly.com/b/Special-Message:-Fox-News-Settlement/883858753726419363.html) gives us “Going forward, Fox News faces a similar lawsuit from the Smartmatic Company and perhaps thousands of lawsuits from Fox shareholders. What a disaster. This is what happens when money becomes more important than honest information. Since I left FNC, the template changed from “Fair and Balanced” to “tell the audience what it wants to hear.” And millions of Trump voters, to this day, want to believe the 2020 election was rigged. That opinion can certainly be presented if you provide a counter opinion – equal time.

However, once the facts begin to overwhelm any point of view, a news agency has an obligation to say that. On BillOReilly.com, I examined all the fraud charges and concluded that no federal court would accept the cheating allegations. Therefore, the election was not going to be refuted by our legal system.” This shows that Bill O’Reilly might not have been everyones taste, but he was a real voice and he might have lost a thousand premium members but he remains a winner until the very last, what a class act and as I see it Fox lost the one Republican beacon it actually had, all for weak minded people catering to the voice of ‘THEIR’ people. The loss will be unmeasurable for Fox in the end. I reckon that is what happens when you become friends with a former president, the man who has no real funds, lots of debt, lots of losses and is proven to be nothing more than a paper tiger at best.

Last there is the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65320001) and with ‘Fox News lawsuit: Can it afford the $787.5m Dominion settlement?’ And with that article they do not offer a lot more, but they do give us “It still has outstanding cases against Fox’s smaller rivals Newsmax and OAN plus several of former President Donald Trump’s associates.” As I see it, these small players have their own legal sharks and they smell blood in the water. Should Fox settle Smartmatic, or lose in the trials these small sharks will come and take huge chunks out of the Fox cadaver. No matter how you slice it, it will leave a gap for any contender of Fox to step forward because for 1-2 years it will have to contemplate how to go forward and how to invest funds going forward and that leaves their number one customer the Republican Party. Any contender could snatch that client away from Fox, which leaves Fox in a bind. Because the Democrats will not do business with them and as the Republican Party goes, so do their advertisers. A future happily bestowed on them by some loser paper tiger and they ‘associates’ of that paper tiger are going after the paper tiger as well, they have too much to lose now. For some TV presenters it will mean the end of their careers no one will hire them after this law setting, they are scared for their own stations and media. Now these people will be set into a new setting. They will allegedly be working for the United Nations as they are soon to be UNemployed?

Enjoy the day

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Law, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

November 19, 2022 · 23:28

Identifying a new stage

That I something we all have to do at times. I (for the longest time) have been contemplating whether Keno Diastima required a fourth season. There was something close to immaculate to the open ending and there were questions within me. Why certain things existed, why certain steps were made and then I got to thinking part of what would have been a goal? There is something towards triggers, we all do, but what happens when the trigger is happening towards an automated process? You see, the automated process takes (for the most) time out of an equation. There can be two reasons behind this.  Th first is the fire and forget process where the instigators look at what comes after, the second is a little harder to explain. Consider a small room, in that room an African bee is released, to be safe you must kill the bee. That process can be monitored, but the stage is difficult and to get the killer bees in place requires an engine. My mind started to ask ‘But why?’ And then I remembered. It is perseverance, resisting temptation. This got my mind to an optional fictive stage that was once said to happen in Las Vegas, they played with artificial pheromones to keep people in a stage of continuous gambling and happiness. Now, I do not know whether this was ever true. The stage came to me from some Lawyer series, I forgot which one. But the stage had an interesting side question. How to infect the right people whilst keeping the others untouched. This led me to the brainwashing stage. Brainwashing can be achieved in psychological ways with additions of chemicals, isolation, debilitation and exhaustion. It is the balance that sets a stage and that can be used in many ways. Yet then we get to Sun Tsu. What if the need is Living spies, reverse spies and/or inside spies? How to create them and better how to keep control? That solution is in part seen by the stage where they are unaware that they are in the first place. And now we have the beginning of a stage. I am also cautious not to give anything away regarding the control lines of the first three seasons. And at that point I had unintentionally created the opening to continue the series (no spoilers). 

It is that stage that creates a new cast of leads and a very new cast of antagonists. You see we assume one side, but what happens when the roles are inverted? How can we see good from evil and more important, does it matter? The soldier tells us, we do not murder, the enemy murders, we merely kill them and protect ourselves. Adrian Furnham (in The Psychology of Spies and Spying: Trust, Treason, Treachery) teaches us the concepts regarding the rigorous psychological analysis of the personality and motivation of individuals involved in spying. Yet if they are unaware motivation is taken out of the equation, the personality of a person can be adjusted to facilitate processes and as such identity is take out of the equation. And with both out of the way you get more than who is good and who is not, we get the making of a faceless scout and that was when the idea struck a much larger stage, a much longer game, optionally something leading to a timeless one. Yet, who would prosper? It was at that stage when my mind went back to WW2 and the idea that at that point corporate espionage, espionage conducted for commercial or financial purposes could have had another option. Alfred Hitchcock touched on it with the movie the 39 steps, but the people never realised what an amazing and dangerous piece of work it was. You see industrial espionage seems limited (like Microsoft on IBM), but what if the stage is not that, but what happens when the stage defines where we invest, where we look and where the diamonds are? What if that party is to identify players that make a difference? It would be a much larger game, a game that has no borders. A setting we never faced before. 

And with that I had the beginning of season 4, but how to connect certain parts and make is ‘realistic’ enough to make the generals in Kremlin, Pentagon and Zhongnanhai cry like little chihuahua’s? Well perhaps not the Kremlin, they have bigger problems (like getting the bulk of their systems to actually work in wartime without losing over 80,000 troops). But the setting gives me two parts, the engine itself and trying to identify the parties involved and I do like a twist or two, like Pakistani intelligence in Homeland season 4. And the longer we do not know who or what we are facing, the term suspense at the tip of your chair becomes very acceptable. Like any writer who perks up when they hear the radio announcer scream ‘Did you see the plot twist last night? Holy F%#&!’ Any writer lives for such a moment, and I is no different. 

But the revelations my mind gave me during  short nap is making my brain hurt, I need to try and work out the story whilst I know I have to edit from word one with every iteration of facts. This is going to take a while, and that is merely season 4, with a related season 5. 

Just my way to pass the time when sex is not an option, the universe is massively unfair at times. 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Military, Politics, Science, Stories

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

January 7, 2019 · 11:08

Nationalisation, the second tier

The news is fresh, it is new news, yet it was foreseen, it wasn’t really news, but the drive has come visible, much more visible than most expected. As some might focus on the Guardian and the image of a beautiful young lady as she is afraid for her life, as she seeks refugee status in Australia, we see all the men and many women feeling sorry for Rahaf Mohammed al-Qunun. It might be correct, it might not. I do not know, yet what the Guardian is not telling you is seen in the Arab News (at http://www.arabnews.com/node/1431206/saudi-arabia), there the news is: ‘Saudi Arabia goes full steam with Saudisation of sales jobs‘. I think it is good that any nation pushes for national held jobs, no matter what country it is happening in. So as we read: “Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Labor and Social Development announced on Sunday that it would be providing citizens with job opportunities in an attempt to reduce unemployment. The job opportunities will be in sales roles, including medical equipment stores, construction and building materials shops, car spare parts shops, carpet shops and sweets shops, according to Saudi state news agency, SPA.” I think it is good that the news is seen, yet what about the impact? It is not a national thing, it is regional, Oman is doing the same, Qatar has been doing it for a while and the UAE is on a similar trend. If it works it is great, yet what everyone forgets is the announcements of 6 months ago, this basically impacts Google, Apple and a few other players (the FAANG group as a whole) as they were opening their offices in Saudi Arabia as well, so from the Saudi view it is great to be Saudi. Many people all over the world dream of a Google job and now we see that Saudi’s are added to that knowledge pool. And that is what it is a knowledge pool that can drive Arabian IP to a much larger extent. In light of Neom City, in light of new Financial Districts in Riyadh, we see the opportunity for growth, yet do these events constitute actual growth as that question is equally important.

If we accept the same news two days ago (at http://www.arabnews.com/node/1430961/business-economy), we see that the headlines might give us ‘CEO of Saudi Arabia’s newest technology investment fund STV shoots for the moon‘, we might giggle, yet perhaps that same feeling came upon us when in 2001 a man named Mark Zuckerberg had an idea, how did that end? We can also consider that as Abdulrahman Tarabzouni is a MIT graduate, so he optionally has a better education than Mark Zuckerberg had (Harvard), which is me, myself and I starting a competitive flame between those two schools. The nice part here is that the STV (the investment fund) has half a billion to start with, so they can cream the best start-ups to truly grow their perspective and turn it into billions of wealth, if properly set their idea of a hundred times over might be conservative. We tend to not look into those directions, yet the ownership of IP is not merely an essential it is a wealth maker and a wealth breaker and as an MIT graduate he would (read: should) be able to see the difference between the wheat and chaff, it makes for all the difference.

Even as the Arab News introduces in opposition: “Some analysts point to two difficulties in the STV strategy: The high valuations of the global technology sector, and the comparatively high levels of geopolitical risk associated with the region, and the Kingdom, in the minds of some foreign investors.” We need to recognise that being first implies the avoidance of ‘high valuations of the global technology sector‘, the second part is ‘geopolitical risk associated with the region‘; that second part might not be zero, yet there is no clear danger to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, in addition as the footing of Iran diminishes the growth of Saudi Arabia will flourish, as well as the fact that the involvement and connections of Abdulrahman Tarabzouni with Saudi Aramco, Careem, Morgan Stanley, Oracle, Microsoft, Syphir tech company, Google, Member of investment committee, Middle East Venture Partners, as well as advisory roles at public and technology institutions in KSA, it would be my personal believe that if this person cannot navigate the rivers of political risk, no one would ever be safe to invest in Saudi Arabia and as we see billions from the FAANG group go that way soon enough, we can pretty much consider the second risk a dud in all that (for now).

The progress that Saudi Arabia is showing in 5G, now equalling the largest players on the western hemisphere shows not only the commitment for the Middle East, it shows that Saudi Arabia is taking the non-petroleum options extremely serious. It goes even further when we consider the news a mere 4 hours ago: “T-Mobile CEO to regulators: China is beating US on fast 5G wireless but our Sprint deal can change that“, how exactly will that happen? Merging Sprint and T-Mobile sounds nice, but they still lack higher technology equipment, Huawei beat them and the longer these players remain in denial, the larger the damage and that is where the STV can cash in. Any Huawei linked technology start-up has close to a 20% advantage over anything else. Let’s not forget that players like Verizon are not really using 5G, or as they say 5G Evolution, which I discussed in ‘Tic Toc Ruination‘, where we see: “We are given “Verizon’s network is not yet 3GPP compliant. It uses Verizon’s own 5G specification, but will be upgraded to be 3GPP compliant in the future“, so does that mean that it is merely a Verizon issue opening the market for Sprint, or are they both involved in that same pool of marketed pool to some form of ‘5G’ branding, and not the standard?” (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/12/06/tic-toc-ruination/), something clearly seen from various sources a month ago, so how was their technology backdrop solved? It was not! I made additional observations in ‘That did not take long‘ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/12/22/that-did-not-take-long-2/) where we see: “we are (again) confronted with what Neville Ray CTO of T-Mobile calls: ‘duping customers into thinking they’re getting something they’re not‘, America will not end dead last here, but they will be trailing (as currently is implied) behind more than one Middle East Arabic nation“, an observation I made on December 22nd last year, so not only am I proven right a few times over, the fact that for what I observe to be high paid people hiding behind presentations and wording whilst not having the actual goods is merely the facade of defeat presenting itself as ‘innovative opportunity‘, so we are watching these people heralding their Edsel whilst it is about to go up against the Maserati Gran Turismo and optionally the Mercedes-Maybach S 650 Sedan as well, and in what Universe does the Edsel have any kind of a chance? Parking perhaps (it is not that big) but how can you see innovative technology as innovation when parking is your only way to shine?

the sad part is that I have been talking to stone walls for 2 years now, the upside is that when they fail I have the documentation showing just how stupid they have been, and the end is nowhere in sight. I prepared issues on optional 5G tourism, cyber protection and a few other places that will really open up the valves of disgust from consumers when they are confronted with the impact on their daily lives. Even outside of governmental infrastructures Huawei is set in a stage where they have billions in optional business in both information and SME environment. The large presentation based players (like 5G Evolution) were so intent on pushing the large infrastructure that they forgot that actual business comes from other area’s and when the first sale is done, they are merely left with the stage where they wait for consumers to catch up, that part is no longer a given. We see part of that (at https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Trends/CES-2019-to-offer-glimpse-of-future-for-5G-AI-and-Huawei), where we are treated to: “About 4,500 companies are set to take part in this year’s CES, which continues to expand beyond consumer electronics as tech pervades once-mechanical industries like automotives. China now stands out in developing and applying both 5G and AI technologies. A decade ago, Japanese home electronics makers had a substantial presence in the Central Hall, an area packed with big-name companies. But as they have lost prominence, Chinese companies have emerged to fill the gap. Huawei Technologies, Alibaba Group Holding and Haier Group will all have exhibits in the Central Hall.” This matters as it is direct visibility; this is the direct stage in Las Vegas and its CES2019, people will get to see 4500 companies and some there proclaiming to equal Huawei, yet less than 5 will optionally have something to show the people on that level and I am speculating that they merely equal Huawei at best and this is one month before the Mobile World Congress 2019 in Barcelona where Huawei is set to take the centre stage and most of the attention. We cannot speculate what we will see exactly, but we will know on Sunday 24th February, and we will then optionally see the Samsung 5G router (not Mobile) and optionally several 5G mobiles, yet at that point we can use the dictionary torpedoes to sink that hype seeking content, contant that we have been exposed to from several sources. That part is not only visible, the results as shown by one source, gives us that AT&T is just not up to scrap at present.

Even as I have no real confirmation on how accurate the results are (so be aware of that), we are shown what PC Mag gave the people earlier and with the cautionary footnote (as would be appropriate): “remember that these are just test speeds ant that they will most likely improve with time. More importantly, there are still no 5G smartphones available yet, so these tests in the AT&T 5G network are just part of a process“, the fact that we see the results as in the image are bad, really really bad for a 5G environment!

From my point of view, test or not, their 5G should have knocked it out of the park leaving us with the entire 5G Evolution bit as what I personally would see as a sham, not a champ.

Nationalisation is only as good as the goods you have and in this the partnership with Huawei was essential and at present more and more technologists are stating the same thing. So those with a Huawei partnership will leave the others behind them on a larger scale in several layers and structural foundational flaws, the impact when the others cannot deliver will be fun to see, especially to mock on a daily foundation. I reckon that we have that right when we are treated to bloated presentations where we are left in the dust with the message: ‘It is great to be a consumer, in this age‘. Do not worry, we have his number and will point out that flaw soon enough several times.

We are finally seeing the impact of iterative technology versus frog leaping ahead. The iterative players will soon diminish, so from the Saudi point of view, they did bet on the right horse and that impact will give them multiple victories soon enough. You see, do you still think that the larger players will stay in a place with inferior abilities? When exactly was that ever an option for those who wanted to stay in the major leagues of technology?

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

December 6, 2018 · 12:47

Tic Toc Ruination

There is always a next deadline, a next target and a next threshold. When we see that point, some see obstacles, some see challenges and others await opportunities. It has always been this way. In the past we had 3G, Telstra could not keep up and gave us 3.5G and called it something else. The audience was deceived and has been deceived for a while in many ways. In Australia, as I personally see it, too many politicians dance to the needs of Telstra and as such, in the long run nothing was done. As 4G matured on a global level we saw the eCommerce run and we saw growth everywhere. And as the 5G moment grew near too many were sitting on the sidelines, all talk and no hard work. Huawei, Ericsson and a few more worked hard because he fin-tech term ‘be there first‘ applied a hundred times more to mobile technologies and we saw the escalation as China went ahead of the curve. Suddenly Huawei 5G technology got banned, a bankrupt America started and soon most nations followed, now, or at least 5 hours ago, the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/dec/05/bt-removing-huawei-equipment-from-parts-of-4g-network) reported one additional move ‘BT removing Huawei equipment from parts of 4G network‘, we see “In a statement, the UK telecoms group has confirmed it is in the process of removing Huawei equipment from the key parts of its 3G and 4G networks to meet an existing internal policy not to have the Chinese firm at the centre of its infrastructure“, all at the behest of spymaster incredibili Alex Younger. Yet actual evidence of Chinese activities was never given in evidence. Alex does something else and in retrospect to his French, American and Canadian peers something that is actually intelligent. He gives us: “the UK needed to decide if it was “comfortable” with Chinese ownership of the technology being used.” OK, in opposition of American stupidity making claims they cannot support, Alex is giving us the national need and the premise that another government should not have ownership of infrastructure this important. I can accept that, yet in that same light, that equipment should not be American or Russian either. He also gives us: “We have to keep adapting … we are evolving again to meet the threats of the hybrid age … our task now is to master the covert action of the data age“, and he is correct. It does not state that Huawei is a danger, a risk or actively undermining the UK. I get the setting of national security first and in this Huawei might optionally in the future be that risk, it is not the same setting the yanks gave us.

Yet there is the opposition as well. At present not only is Huawei ahead by a fair bit, Engineering and Technology (at https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/12/china-continues-to-dominate-worldwide-patent-applications/) give us: ‘China continues to dominate worldwide patent applications‘, it is a lot larger than Huawei, yet the stage we need to comprehend is “China submitted 1.38 million of the total 3.17 million patent applications submitted“, and a chunk of that 43.5% is mobile and 5G technology. China is ahead in the race and as some people start living in denial, the stage we will see in 2020 is not that America will start its 5G part, there will be a moment when China lodges IP cases that oppose patents, and the optional proven stage of patent violations. At that point the nations moving in silly ways will learn the hard way that whatever they tried to overcome will cost them 200%-550% more that they thought it would. The entire patent system will be upside down as technology makers will be found to be technology breakers and that is one side why the US is so opposed to certain levels of protectionism (apart from their pharmaceutical patents). To give you a perspective, China applied for more patents than the US, Japan, South Korea and the European Patent Office combined, the difference is that big, there is a second benefit to a worldwide growth in IP filings and some technology offices will soon encounter the receiving side of a desist to move forward lawsuit. The Apple Samsung war in patents has shown that impact for years and when any firm is stopped in their tracks, for any 5G violation, you can flush that 5G implementation timeline down the toilet.

ZDNet gives us: “Sprint announced that it is now the fastest mobile carrier across New York City, providing customers with access to its gigabit-speed LTE services after upgrading its network in preparation for 5G services going live next year“, which sounds nice, yet when we see: “launching a 5G mobile service there in the first half of 2019“, the way the dates were given last week personally implies to me that any setback gives reason that there will be no 5G before Q3 2019. Now, I might be wrong here, yet in the past we have seen again and again that these timelines were never met and the pressure is really on this time around, making setbacks and delays even more likely. So a we see New York, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Washington DC, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, Miami, Indianapolis, and Phoenix moving into the 5G realm, we now see the absence of an earlier mentioned Boston, Sacramento, Dallas, Houston, So as we see San Francisco, I see no Mountain view, no Palo Alto and no San Jose (consider https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnzTgUc5ycc, just a little Helix for the fans). So will San Francisco get 5G, or will Google and Facebook infested Mountain View get the5G? The problem is not whether it comes now or later, the fact remains that implementation and deployment had to be done and be past the 100% deployment preparations 6 months ago and the players left it to the final moment, whilst some of the infrastructure should have been available a long while ago.

The setting is not merely 5G, it is the availability that is connected to all this that follows. Part of this situation is given weight to issues when we consider Telecom Lead giving us (at https://www.telecomlead.com/5g/192-operators-start-5g-network-investment-gsa-87745). The quote: “192 mobile operators in 81 countries are investing in 5G network as compared with 154 operators in 66 countries in July 2018, according to the latest GSA report released in November 2018” shows us that 15 countries are already late to the start and it involves 38 operators. Now, that might be valid as some are not in the size to be the initial adopters, yet it is merely the top of the iceberg. This Titanic is showing a leak when we get to “GSA also said 80 telecom operators in 46 countries have announced their plan to launch 5G to their customers between 2018 and 2022. 37 networks will launch 5G services in 2020 alone“. If this is the stage knowing that you are in one of the 37 countries. The 9 countries that are optionally launching between 2018 and 2020 might have a local advantage, yet which of these 9 are starting fist, or get to start between 2021 and 2022 is equally an issue to explore. We see: “Telstra, TeliaSonera Finland, Ooredoo Kuwait and Qatar, Zain Kuwait, and STC Saudi Arabia have done 5G deployments using commercial 5G base stations but are waiting for devices to enable service introduction“, here we see Australia to be ahead of the curve, yet waiting for devices implies that it goes beyond the mobile phones, I reckon that there is something else missing, yet what it is and when it comes is not given. The article also gives us the entire 5G trap and the Verizon steps that are in question. It is the reason why I mentioned Telstra 3.5G in the first place. We are given “Verizon’s network is not yet 3GPP compliant. It uses Verizon’s own 5G specification, but will be upgraded to be 3GPP compliant in the future“, so does that mean that it is merely a Verizon issue opening the market for Sprint, or are they both involved in that same pool of marketed pool to some form of ‘5G’ branding, and not the standard?

If that is truly the case, if this is truly verified, will the day that the 5G switch is turned on in the US, Japan and Saudi Arabia show that Saudi Arabia and Japan gives the people true 5G and America does not, does that make them the loser in the 5G race on day one? The question now becomes is Sprint 3GPP compliant, and more important what is the failing of 3GPP compliant bringing to the table?

When I look at the data opportunities that 5G brings, the opportunities that blockchain technology can revolutionise (especially in America) in retail with 5G are unheard of. There is a true growth of investment options available, yet are these opportunities seen as such?

So where is the ruination?

You see, this is the first time in history where high-tech is running ahead in China. In the past, America had the radio, they had the TV, they had video, DVD, Japan brought the Blu-Ray, and the US had 4G first; yet it all falters when we realise that this time around China is not merely on par, they are optionally ahead in the next technology wave, we have never seen this advantage from China before, and at the speed at how they caught up in the past, is worrying many nations as they are now ahead and optionally they can create more headway as they start giving the US less and less advantages, optionally resulting in greater economic advantages for China as America ends up having to catch up now, an advantage of being first which is now optionally no longer with the US.

The question becomes, will the consumers have to pay for that lack of headway? Even as we push for the comparison in the past app stage of 4G, we see that the IP war can become a much larger headache when you are not China, it might be good, it will most likely be bad and in the end we might benefit yet the reality is that massive amount of money will start going to the far east (China) and it will impact all manners of ecommerce soon enough. Yet will that happen? We might know tomorrow as the techboys (and one techgirl), AKA Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella, Ginni Rometty, Safra Katz and Steve Mollenkopf meet with White House officials later today. So as Google, IBM, Microsoft, Oracle and Qualcomm decide on what happens (or needs to happen) in the next 24 hours, I wonder what concessions they will get from the White House as long as they all finish second to none and give America the 5G pole position result. Ego comes at a price and I reckon that we get to know the cost of White House ego tripping before the end of the year.

In all this, I wonder, can I make matters worse when I ‘give’ 2 billion in IP value to Huawei? When we are pushed, should we not push back? When the others face too late the element of delay by not adhering to logic, and by ignoring common sense, should I give them consideration? That is actually a main point here, as technology becomes the main political pawn, how should we react? We can agree with Alex Younger that any nation needs to negate technological risk, we could consider that he seemingly had the only valid opposition against Huawei, as it was not directed at Huawei, but at the fact that the tech is not British, the others did not work that path, and as we see that technology is cornered by the big 7, those in the White House with an absent person from both Apple and Huawei. We have accepted the changed stage of technology and that might not have been a good thing (especially in light of all the cyber-crimes out there), also a larger diverse supplier group might have addressed other weak spot via their own internal policies, another path optionally not averted. So as we focus on national needs (which is always a valid path), should I hand that 2 billion dollar patent to Australia, who is too often in the pocket of Telstra (as I personally see it), or put it on the market for any to buy it, when that happens, do I create opportunity or limitations?

That is a question that most of us did not consider as the tech market had been global for the longest of times, yet as 5G comes into play, that might soon change and with that we will get new answers, new challenges and a lot more diversity (whilst having to entertain a whole range of new limitations as well). In my view there is an unseen balance between ruination and opportunity, yet this is where time is not a factor, it will be about the connectivity that one offers another and that is when we see that time influences it, but it is not the larger factor of influence. It is a market where diversity becomes an enabler against time (partially in opposition of time). I stated this before. As 4G gave us the golden path towards ‘wherever we are‘, 5G will be largely about ‘whenever we want it‘. It affects ‘on demand’, it enables ‘I need it now’ and it gives rise to security, automation and non-repudiation to a much larger extent. We have clearly seen that Huawei and China are in pole position of that race, and we must wonder who of the other players can catch up in time offering the full 5G with all elements validly in place (not using Verizon’s own 5G specification, or a version thereof).

I look forward to 2019 as I have already found 2 optional gaps; I wonder how many more I will find.

 

4 Comments

Filed under Finance, IT, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,