Tag Archives: Russia

August 19, 2023 · 23:50

It started with television

To get the entire mess I will start with a television episode.

The line was “Not that I don’t appreciate the sentiment behind your nightmare scenario” it was linking a conversation between President Bartlett and Dr. Takahashi. The episode was ‘A good Day’ season 6 episode 17. Yes, this part is fiction and some of the mentioned elements were too, but not all and that is the striking part. This episode aired in March 2005. You think that would be the end of it, but you would be wrong. Lets take a look at reality.

The Financial Times gave us ‘Saudi Arabia cuts holdings of US Treasuries to 6-year low’ on august 17th (at https://www.ft.com/content/2925952d-1e20-4748-8fa4-05b3605fc46a). There we are given “Saudi Arabia sold down its holdings of US Treasuries in June to the lowest in more than six years, as the kingdom directs more funds to foreign equity and domestic investments. The kingdom held $108.1bn of Treasury securities in June, down $3.2bn from May and below the $119.7bn it held at the end of last year, according to data from the US Treasury department.” This is merely part one, the second part is seen with ‘China likely to cut more US debt holdings’ (at https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202308/16/WS64dce79ba31035260b81c880.html) this is not the end, this is merely the beginning of what was described in the West Wing as the nightmare scenario. You would think that the EU and Japan would come to the aid of the US, but you would be wrong. Mario Draghi overspend trillions in the past and now the EU credit card is stretched to the max. Japan had in March 2023, a Japanese public debt is estimated to be approximately 9.2 trillion US Dollars, or 263% of GDP. Japan has no place to go and that is the beginning of systems collapsing. The US is in its endgame towards becoming an economic third world nation. 

Yet there is more tom come. We also get (at https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-entire-financial-monetary-social-180841464.html) ‘‘It’s The Death Of The Entire Financial, Monetary And Social System’: This Market Expert Warns The U.S. Dollar Is Quickly Losing Its Reserve Status.’ I do not know Jing Pan and I do not know whether she is correct, but she gives us one part that struck a nerve. She gives us “In March, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank grabbed major headlines. After the bank sold its Treasury bond portfolio, it incurred a substantial loss, causing depositors to question its liquidity and leading to a bank run. Amid this market upheaval, Silvergate Bank, First Republic Bank and Signature Bank failed as well. “This banking crisis is not over,” she said. “Maybe they’ve been able to paper over it, and so everybody is calm, and you have consumer confidence going up and all of this other kind of garbage. But it’s built on a house of lies.”” It struck a nerve because I got there through different means. You see when the SVB issues was playing out, we suddenly get a news article with Janet Yellen who is keeping tabs on the situation. Janet Yellen, United States Secretary of the Treasury. Not some governor from California, not someone from the banking industry. No, it was El Jefe from the treasury herself. It was overkill. I had issues and I wrote about them earlier (not sure when). I wondered why the SVB was in that setting and why Yellen personally took notice. I wondered who was holding the US bonds. Because banks had some of the bonds, but no one had a list of how much and no one had a clue (or remained silent) on how much the SVB was holding. 

As such I had an issue, things weren’t adding up. And now the two largest finders of the planet are shedding the US debt. As I see it the US has painted themselves in a corner and things will go ugly soon enough.

This is where the next article comes in. The article (at https://tickernews.co/u-s-credit-card-debt-levels-just-surpassed-1-trillion/), which is not the only source gives us ‘U.S. credit card debt levels just surpassed $1-trillion’, as such 300 million people have a collective debt of over on thousand billion. This amounts to the degree that every American has a debt well over $3,000. So how will this unfold when the dollar drops? Now, I am generalising but the larger stage is now set. Bonds are going nowhere and in 2022 long-dated U.S. notes lost 39.2% in value. So how safe are those bonds now? We know about the inflation and that it is rising, but CNN reports that ‘US banks sitting on unrealised losses of $620 billion’. This came to us in March, as such the SVB issues are rising, are they not? So where are those bonds? Who is reaping the losses on that one and the nightmare scenario that a television series gave to us in 2005 is about to become a very real issue in 2023 and 2024. 

We might have thought 20 years ago that bonds were the safest place to be, but only 20 years later and this is no longer a reality and moreover the allies of the USA are shedding them, or cashing in to reduce the damage from them. This leaves America in a very vulnerable position. As I personally see it, they painted themselves in a corner and the windows on the two adjacent walls are soon out of reach to anyone in that corner. To add to this, the paint is red and massively toxic (as I see it), so no release unless someone can find a little over 20 trillion to help the US, the usual suspects are out of cash and I reckon Russia will not offer help either. Consumers have a total accumulated debt that surpasses a trillion and the bad news keeps on stacking up. All because politicians were playing the ‘screw it’ card. Now that the ledgers are up for grabs the US is sitting in the worst spot it has been in in well over a century and corporate and business America is looking for any way out of the US at present. 

When you see that image and you add the failures of Microsoft a different image comes to mind and it is not a pretty one. So why Microsoft? Because it is part of the Dow Jones Index. It might only be for 4.9% but when that goes south the DJI will see a much larger problem. You see it is not merely Microsoft, it becomes an issue for Goldman Sachs as well and when the dollar collapses. What do you think that places like UnitedHealth Group, Johnson & Johnson, VISA, American Express and Walmart will be left with? When over 150 million will have no money left the consumers pushing the aforementioned companies up will also fade pushing rates and results down. All things that could have been seen will over 2-3 years ago. And there is no blaming the Russian-Ukrainian war, this would have happened no matter what. Optionally it happened sooner, but not much sooner. 

Even if ‘A good day’ was the start, the settings have been in place for years. I believe the media merely looked the other way, because the other view was sexy and optionally offered more digital dollars, another funny money business. 

So am I wrong?
That is the question. I could be and relating articles like I am is to some degree folly, but it was all I had at the time. And if there is an economic person (I am not one) giving us a clear answer why I am wrong, I would accept that, but there are too many issues in the field and there are too many issues out in the open. I wonder if anyone could counter them all. But I will keep my eyes open to see if someone goes that way.

Anyway, have a great day and I am about to start the final day of the weekend.

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August 18, 2023 · 01:04

Optical versus optional

There is a fine setting between genius and insane and I know it well. I am both one and the other. I have had my settings of genius and I have had my settings of insanity. And I will be honest enough to state that they aren’t in equal measure. So, this all started yesterday as I was writing about the strike and an image passed by.

I was looking at it and I suddenly realised an idea I had a very long time ago. Even as the navies modernised, they upgraded and so forth. Yet the events we recently saw made me realise that the Russians have been cutting corners and I have no doubt the nay faced the same corner cuttings. 

As such there is every chance that the new weapon system I thought through (based on the M142 HIMARS) might become a stealth solution towards letting Russians enjoy the views (like the bottom of a sea). 

I still believe that a prep event is needed and if it works the Ukrainians will have an option to sink the Russian fleet. Of course Lockheed Martin would have to make adjustments to their M31 GMLRS, but that might merely be the smallest part in the equation. Another prep is required and I will not write it here (no reason to tell the Russians where they failed), another part is that the target needs to be within 12 nautical miles, but that is a concern that brighter people than me have to address. All what I know is that if the prep part works the Russian fleet is obsolete and even if the idea is regarded as bad, it might make for a nice storyline in a movie, but that is for after the strikes are settled. As far as I can tell, this makes this Lawlordtobe – DARPA now 3-0. Not a bad way to go into Friday right before the weekend. The question becomes is it about to become an optical field because I was delusional? So is this a concept for Hollywood, Canadian Hollywood, or will it go to DARPA and Lockheed? I honestly do not know, as such it is Tim e for one Stefanie Tompkins (in Ballston, Arlington, Virginia) to wake up and consider what I saw and they might have overlooked.

I will let DARPA decide on that one, no reason to lose sleep over that part of the equation. So time for me to snore like a sawmill. 

Have a nice day, Friday is upon me and almost upon all of you to.

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August 2, 2023 · 19:41

My presumption is real

This article goes over several parts, parts you might agree with and parts you will not agree with. That is fair! You see several parts are set to presumption, which is still better than speculation. The difference is seen in the meaning. Presumption is an idea that is taken to be true on the basis of probability. There is more than probability in my case. I have worked in IT since 1983, as such I have been around (at least twice). Speculation is the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence. And both are important because I am talking from the past, which is not always seen or accepted as evidence. This is fair, and this is why people might disagree and I get it, never take anything for granted, not Ven when I say it. I love the expression from NCIS in this case ‘Trust but verify’ Gibbs was right, always verify what you learn. It is the only real way to move forward.

So this all started yesterday with an article. The article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66118831) gives us ‘Gallium and germanium: What China’s new move in microchip war means for world’, they say it is 8 hours old, but I saw the article a little over 25 hours ago, so not sure what changed. The setting is “Under the new controls, special licences are needed to export gallium and germanium from the world’s second largest economy. The materials are used to produce chips and have military applications. The curbs come after Washington made efforts to limit Beijing’s access to advanced microprocessor technology.” You can turn and twist this to your heart content, but the setting is inaccurate and largely incorrect. Not what you read, that is fine. But there is a whole mess that precedes this and to see this we need to go back to the 90’s. You see, the IT world saw hoe the arms race was going and how military contractors were filling their pockets and the IT world took a page from that stage and started its IT Armistice race. I was caught up in it as well. A 386, a 486, a 486DX2, the Pentium, the Pentium 2, the Pentium-450, the Pentium2, as such between 1993 and 2002 I had wasted thousands on 7 systems, 7 systems in 10 years and I had enough. You see for the most the Pentium2 was enough to do 90% of everything I did, except gaming. Then I switched to consoles and saved myself thousands more. As such I avoided to the largest extend the graphic card war which might seem small but high end gaming needs a $1200 card, my PS5 was less then a thousand dollars on day one. In this Microsoft also pushed the borders, making us upgrade again and again. Oh, they played their cards cautiously and they played it well. Yet consider “Vista alone had 50 million lines of code, 10 million lines more than its successor, Windows 7. Because of the excessive amount of bloat and code, it was very slow on devices at the time, even on the latest and greatest hardware of 2007. This meant that it was more expensive to buy a machine that ran Vista properly.” Between Windows XP and Windows 7 we had the Vista nightmare and it cost too many too much. Yet weirdly enough with a little effort (Suse Linux at $99) you had an equal if not much better option, it would work on most Pentium2 systems like lightning. You could download it for free but for that money you got the discs and a DVD, the DVD had all the discs which included Linux and a truckload of programs, even open office I believe. If not it was easily downloaded. A linux lookalike version of Microsoft office that was free. It had an SQL database and so much more, even a nice collection of games, but they were not high resolution games. Fo that you needed a console and you saved thousands. It is this armistice race. We went though thousands of processors and that is what counts, because that drained the Gallium and Germanium we had and now China is one of the few that has it now. You see, we might act against China, but Gallium is found in Japan, South Korea, and Russia as well. China has however 90% at present. That does not mean there isn’t more, but finding it is not easy. Germanium is also found in Canada, Finland, Russia and the United States. China has about 60% and that is where we see the odd duck out (on your left). And is it not interesting that the second material is not mentioned that it is also found in Canada and the US? In this greed was again a much larger stage to this. The IT Armistice race dwindled whatever the west had and now China and Russia seem to have the upper hand. Still the larger stage is not merely who has it, but it becomes who can find it better, because that is where this is heading. I get it, we all need the latest PC (or MAC) but ask yourself, what allows you to do what you need to do? That is the question that IT providers like Dell and HP were eager to avoid at all cost as it impacted their bottom dollar. They will make the ‘party line’ To enjoy the best of Windows (whatever version) you are best off having a (the latest chip). That is what caused a large part of the drain and I was every bit as guilty. By the time I figured out what was going on I my bank account had about $22,000 less (11 systems with 2 still in use). You can scream whatever you want on how I could ‘save’ some dollars, but the truth is that we all enjoyed that feeling of the latest system, but it came at a price. So when we now see “a Pentagon spokesperson said the US had reserves of germanium but no stockpile of gallium” and why is that? It it is such a crucial element, why is there no stockpile? That is an easy answer, but no answer will be forthcoming. A race for supremacy, all whilst at least two racers are no longer able to keep up and that race is about to turn nasty for at least one of them. The Commonwealth might rely on Australia, but until the deposits are found the UK is in a tight spot. As I personally see it we might have to take a step back and see how else we can get the job done. As such I am phrasing an extremely speculative question. French chemist Paul-Émile Lecoq de Boisbaudran found in 1875 the substance we now know to be gallium, it is in group 13 of the periodic table and is similar to the other metals of the group (aluminium, indium, and thallium. My question becomes Is there another solution that employs indium or thallium? I honestly have no idea, I do not even know where these two are found and whether they can do what Gallium does. Also there is Rhodium, can it (or a combination) get the job done? I have no idea, but it seems to me that the head-banging against a wall we raised ourselves is massively stupid to say the least and there is every chance that there is a chemist and an electronic engineer who will laugh at my suggestion, which is fair enough. To see this we need to look at 1965 when Friedrich Schächter created a ballpoint that works in space as it is a pressurised ink solution. In in 1967 it was reported that NASA purchased approximately 400 pens for $2.95 a piece, all whilst Bic pens were $0.29 in those days. Russia decided to solve it by using a pencil, which costed $0.39 at the time. So we can caress our ego’s or find another solution.  And this is merely one of many issues. So will you embrace someone who adds 10 million lines of code, or seek whatever else is out there? I get it, the other solution will not work for everyone, but over 2 billion people use a PC out there. I am willing to bet the bank that at least 25% could do with a cheaper solution. There are (according to some) an estimated 300 million computers in production annually. I feel certain that at least a third doesn’t need to be bought and if Microsoft woke up and recreated Windows XP for households and adds a decent office version to it several other gallium issues could suddenly be less stringent. In 2018 970 units of Gallium were used. In 2022 it was almost 3500 units (the chart did not clearly give me what the units were). Why is that? I know that PC output is not over 300% in 2022. There might be other uses as well, but I would not know that, but the more I see the more questions I end up with and the BBC (or its article) isn’t giving me the goods. There was no mention of Canada or the US in it, was there?

It is time for plenty of people to wake up, I for one would send a wake up call (plus coffee) to Dr. Stefanie Tompkins of DARPA, perhaps they can find alternative options for these two metals? Not the weirdest idea and as the Pentagon needs these materials it seems to me that between lunch and diner DARPA might find an answer, these boffins are kinda clever so it is one way to go. What do you think?

Enjoy the middle of the week, its all uphill in anticipation to the weekend until Friday. 

 

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July 4, 2023 · 02:00

Small victory

This article is a little weird (little being the operative word). You see, I got here via several paths, all walked at nearly the same time. The first started with me going through Skyrim for the 4th time, now on PS5. I bought the anniversary expansion as it was on special and a game that pleased me for over 11 years deserves a small infusion of funds. I am still in the same setting and this time around I found all 7 black books. This is a first in the 4 play-throughs. I got them all on my own and the feeling of pleasure to see a new level was almost overwhelming (I did say almost). This got me to think of a few things running parts in my IP. You see the IP I was creating for non-Microsoft systems had a few issues, but the idea of having a long term game is enticing. As such I created a set of events that makes a replay more entertaining and more addictive for the RPG player. Yet that was as far as I got and my mind was replaying old issues in programming. Like the setting of [SET mission to Class=1 and Gender=2 or Evolution=4] this gives us that not all see a mission and the mission is limited to gender and class in the first or the evolution is set to 4 (it makes sense a lot later and not today). This gives us that some missions are optionally never played. These are side missions. So as we replay a game we see missions that we never saw in the first play-through. Why? Well we can give it all, or give the player a nice ride a few times over and I believe in long term gaming. I have no time for people who play games with the solution page to their left (or right for that matter). These are simple track gamers and there are enough games for these people. 

Sidestep
Now I make a sidestep. This is important for the whole story. This sidestep is what the Australian Financial Review gives subscribers on China. As such we will jump over it. Yet one quote there is “China’s hostility to the west has come at a very substantial economic price” this statement is flawed and faulty. It is the west with its slamming Huawei that is at the center of a lot. All the accusations and the US and EU have NEVER given clear evidence of their accusations. I get the UK stance that no infrastructure should be in foreign hands. That makes sense, but handing it over to the US is no different. We get more on the Russian setting towards Ukraine and I cannot completely disagree, Russia is a losing stage and that will have larger repercussions down the track. I reckon that BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) will exploit the setting as long as they can and then optionally dump Russia, they might not have a choice and with Saudi Arabia and the UAE bolstering their group the stage of ‘at a very substantial price’ is shown to be faulty. The collaboration at present between Saudi Arabia and China will bring oil and revenue to China. Saudi Arabia is in the process of ordering military hardware from China which will cost the West billions upon billions and it all goes to China. This is not new, this has been two years in the making and I gave warning of this as early as 2019 I believe. The article has a lot more claims, but they are empty. When I see “are privately more sympathetic to the US and its allies” reads like a joke and a bad one at that. The stage is that the population (read: consumers) is on the side of China via India. The wealth from the Middle East is pouring into China and is giving construction jobs to China for building all over Saudi Arabia with a several of them adding up to almost a trillion dollars. So where is the substantial economic price? At the next stage China has 5G Telecommunications via Huawei all over the Middle East and it is about to border Europe directly. Leaving the Mediterranean open to Saudi telecom hands soon enough. 

As such when I see “So far this year such investments in China are running a little more than $1 billion whereas two years ago it was nearly $50 billion” I tend to howl with laughter. You see, projects like The Line, Neom Bay, Oxagon, Trojena, and Sindalah represent well over $500 billion and China is about to get large chunks of that. Not sure how much, because I am not an insider, but I am certain that it will surpass $150 billion. Then there is the multi billion dollar military contracts and the refinery at the Chinese border, which is worth billions and more in infrastructure. So what economic loss? China is running on all engines and they are seemingly killing it. A world without the US and without the EU and these two players are making it happen. This is the price of arrogance and I have been clear over the last 5 years that this was about to happen, but the ego centrical politicians all stated that they knew better. We are about to learn the impact of stupidity on nearly every level.


As such I have a few issues with the AFR article. It is a good article, but a flawed one. One that boasts American supremacy, the little issue is that they no longer have the field. You see one source gives me “US National Debt Spiked by $851 billion in One Month, to $32.3 Trillion” now, I am not stating that this is true, but if this is true, then the US is already merely in a holding pattern until the next debt ceiling political setting and wth that BRICS (with Saudi Arabia and the UAE) will become a winner and the new global power. At that point China, India and Saudi Arabia will be better off shedding Russia. It has become too big a political and economical danger to them. And it is merely an egg timer away.

Back to the game
This is when my mind took me back to the game and a ‘new’ game. You see all these things were in my brain contemplating when I consider a different approach to the use of active and passive abilities in gaming. It played in my mind when I was remastering a Microprose game with similar settings, but now with a different approach. I call it Agent Gamer. This would be exclusive to Amazon Luna and whomever buys my IP. You see we have all seen passive powers in games like Mass Effect, Diablo 3 and more games. But they all have a similar approach to the use of passive powers. I am uprooting that and taking a different view. A game with active elements and passive elements. But you can spike these passive elements in different ways. In addition to adding several additions to the game, we can also rack certain abilities. It is like colour mingling. 

Consider the wheel. We have three basic colours (Blue, Yellow and Red). When we increase these skills we also influence the adjacent colours. Blue will influence Green and Purple, Yellow will influence Orange and Green and Red will influence Orange and Purple. It is simple setting where you make one 10% more effective (or easier), yet in the same setting increase the effectiveness of the other two by 5%. And this can be done in a multitude of ways, but the game is called ‘Agent Gamer’ and as such I will not reveal too much here. You see, to make Microsoft collapse by 2026 requires me to set the field to make the others more powerful (hence the Amazon Luna). Sony and Nintendo are on track to make their own wins (diminishing Microsoft in the process) Adobe and Apple are on other tracks and Google is no longer a contender in gaming (they have other fields). Overall the arrogance of Microsoft is about to bite them hard. Azure is doing not as good as some sources reveal. We see the Microsoft spin engines turning and we are given ‘We Think Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease’ but I think they are in a bad state and it is getting worse. Still I have more than a year to watch them collapse, I merely want the timeline to be as correct as possible and as such if I can help their opposition being stronger and better I will do so. Gaming is only one side of it, but they interfered with my gaming pleasure and according to Zeus (Hades too), I can hold a grudge like nothing they have ever seen and I am happy to prove these two correct. In the end the largest stage could be coming from Saudi Arabia, especially as they are eager to feed their Esport settings and 50 million new members will go a long way towards that goal. Amazon had their chance and now it is up to the other eligible parties, which includes Tencent Technologies. 

Enjoy Monday and for those still overcoming Canada Day last weekend, have a second coffee before you start any work.

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July 2, 2023 · 22:14

One plus one makes 256

I got struck by two things today. The first was given to me by the BBC. There (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66021325) we are given something that should not be allowed to happen. We are given ‘Shell still trading Russian gas despite pledge to stop’ this has one part that offends me. You see it is the Royal Dutch Shell. The Dutch Royal family has a majority stake in this and we all agree that we do not under any circumstance support the Russians in their endeavour. In addition, Royal Dutch Shell is not alone. Dozens of American firms are still making money from Russia and allowing them to continue their acts of terror against civilian targets. I am all royalist, yet when something wrong is done I speak out, the fact that the BBC is extremely willing to drop the ‘Royal Dutch’ part in this equation speaks out against the BBC and their setting of informing the public (yet again). In addition to this we are given. “Shell said the trades were the result of “long-term contractual commitments” and do not violate laws or sanctions.” And when was war a reason not to break a contract? How long have certain corporations been doing business with Idi Amin Dada Oumee in the timeframe of 1971-1979? Do they not learn? I think this is the first time I ever speak out against the Dutch Royal family, but this time I see no other option but to speak out. And when we get to “Oleg Ustenko, an adviser to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, accused Shell of accepting “blood money”” I personally would agree with Oleg Ustenko. And with “Last year Shell accounted for 12% of Russia’s seaborne LNG trade, Global Witness calculates, and was among the top five traders of Russian-originated LNG that year” we see just how deep Royal Dutch Shell is connected to all this. 

Yet what you just read is not correct, and I did that intentionally. You see we also have “In January 2022, the firm merged the A and B shares, moved its headquarters to London, and changed its legal name to Shell plc.” So what is the UK doing? You see, Shell is seen as the 15th largest company in the world. You do not give up that position lightly or cheap. So whatever happened in January 2022 has had a massive impact and for some reason no one really knows what was going on (I have no clue), but me separating with ownership of a firm that big is a ‘no no’, so something does not add up to me, would you just shed a company that makes $20 billion a year? I have issues with all this and yes the BBC did nothing wrong, but the fact that this was once the Royal Dutch Shell and there is no indication (does not mean it did not happen) that the Dutch Royal family might still have a large stake in all this is upsetting to me and it would be to anyone having Dutch links. 

So as we say goodbye to that part, we get to the interesting dream I had. I dozed off whilst watching the Rookie (season 4). My dream (or nightmare) took me to Los Angeles and an interesting Terrorist plot to create and unsurmountable amount of chaos to that city. You see, with all the connected and interacting systems someone created an interesting virus/worm/program (not sure which one). This work was pretty ingenious. You see, instead of debilitating IT systems, they did something different. They infected data parsers. In my dream I was hit as I wanted to find places that had in part the term “vectium” and suddenly it all stopped. Systems worked by they were no longer able to give the full details sudden intelligent settings in Google Search, Bing (yes that one too), and all other engines failed because certain subsystems were deactivated and for some reason some version of ChatGPT was merely making matters worse and spreading the problem across the US and hitting the other continents merely hours later. Because certain detection matters were limited to certain main parts and not subparts that damage continued. The weird part was that anyone with IT knowledge and the ability to give complete correct search terms could still work, but well over 200,000,000 people suddenly had mobiles and IT systems that would no longer connect or hand over correct information, like some kind of aphasia. The dream is now fading and I can no longer see the specifics, but at the beginning it had something to do with search terms ‘like’, which then infected more and more systems. After a short time terms like ‘containing’ would stop working and even as the complete old version SQL string would work, it was about the only thing that did and it crippled the metropolitan areas of the US (and Canada shortly thereafter). The more I think about it, the more interesting it would be to set an episode of the Rookie where infrastructures collapse. You see, people are nice when they have their coffee and their hamburger (or cheeseburger), when that stops the niceties do too.

Well that is it for me, for all you others, the end of the weekend is now no more than 19 hours away, make them count and have a lovely day.

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July 1, 2023 · 22:35

Son of Kristallnacht

This happens, things happen again. Things are reprised and even the stupid parts are redone over and over again. I never understood the act of book burning. It does not matter what is burned. The acts of November 9th 1938 were short sighted and stupid and they reminded me of the events that led to the Bonfires of the Vanities. This event was on February 7th 1497 instigated by Girolamo Savonarola. Two events started by stupid christians (Savonarola and Hitler) as such it is a setting of a stupid event that led to the burning of Qurans. The second event was covered by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66052670) here we learn “Salwan Momika, said to be an Iraqi living in Sweden, set fire to a copy of Islam’s holy book outside Stockholm’s central mosque on Wednesday. The Quran burning was condemned by many Muslim-majority countries.” This set of a few thoughts in my mind. The first was ‘who on earth is Salman Momika?’ You see, Iraq has up to 10% that is not Muslim. This happens in many nations that has a muslim majority. So why would this person to set fire to a Quran? I am not trying to decipher it, but the irony is that the Iraqi people overtaking a Swedish Embassy whilst it was one of their own civilians to set fire to it in the first place is pretty ironic. There is a second setting that is less impressive. This is the second event that Sweden has and now if Turkey obstructs NATO entry, that is all on Sweden. They have the option to prosecute those who knowingly burn religious texts (any religious texts), they have the option to make Salwan Momika persona non grata, sending that person BACK to Iraq. At that moment Salwan’s goose is cooked, thoroughly. Something needs to be done. This is not about freedom of expression, this is about intentionally causing grief. I know that the matter is more pressing and more complex. Yet the larger station is that this was intentional, this is about someone pushing the buttons of Salwan Momika, the question is who and why. Is it Russia trying to set delays, it is a third party to create chaos? So many directions to go into and so many options to consider. The fact that someone OK’ed this is also an issue. They knew what would happen, there is no way that they did not. In the meantime Deutsche Welle informs us “Morocco has withdrawn its ambassador in protest”, which is not entirely unexpected. Sweden should expect a few more Muslim nations to be upset about the actions that were cause of them. This is not about freedom of expression, this is about creating mayhem and Sweden is letting this all happen threatening their ascendancy into NATO. There is no other way to see this. How this evolves is beyond me but Sweden is in for a few hard months and perhaps even more. But there is a larger station here and until we see a much more clear picture whatever I see is based on mostly speculation. 

On the upside, my mind came up with another game and another piece of IP, too early to tell where either will go, but the mind is firing on most thrusters.

Enjoy the weekend.

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June 13, 2023 · 01:56

Forgotten numbers

These things happen, we forget things, or perhaps better stated, we often do not know the numbers and how they relate, as such they are gone from the mind the moment we see them. I made mention to some degree this on February 27th 2023 when I wrote ‘On the subject of failure’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/02/27/on-the-subject-of-failure/) there we see to some degree the massive failure that Russian supplies and logistics are. Not everyone is on that same page, but in all honesty, setting an army in a battle zone whilst they have no ammunition. What did you think would happen? Russian soldiers using their fingers and shouting ‘pew pew pew’? Do you think the people they attack would play along? Simple questions.

Now we see the numbers as given by one source and we see the losses that they Russian are having. When you consider the losses in Tanks, APV’s and vehicles you merely see a number and that is fair. But consider that most armies in the EU do not even have that many vehicles, and these are Russian losses, how large is the failure by Russian actually? 

You see, there is a number we aren’t seeing here, we see that the Russians lost 215,640 soldiers and between the previous report and now, they lost 980 troops. It now amounts to 400% of the TOTAL personal losses that the US had in Vietnam. But the most important number is missing and  it was another source that made me aware. Russia has so far lost 11 generals. That number will not be sinking in, I get that. There are armies that do not have that many generals, but that is not the important part. A general is more than merely a chief officer. Most armies employ some kind of higher tactical education (like the Dutch: HKS). When they pass this they can go beyond Colonel and become General. These people have had decades of experience putting out internal fires, setting bases in the same settings and educating their colonels to be more proficient. Pretty much EVERY army has that setting. And we would all get it, The Russian Army will have plenty of generals. Especially when the combined armies account for millions, there will be over 1100 generals. When it is merely one it seems petty, but there is a connected setting, one of them doesn’t get there easily (or at least they should not be getting there easily). And when you lose one it takes time for all this to get up to speed on a lot of things. Now with 11 lost the game changes. Just like sending soldiers into a war zone without ammunition. It pretty much becomes a turkey shot (for the Ukrainians). And that makes the Russian losses a lot bigger and it also explains why the counter offensive for Ukraine is so successful. Whatever is left cannot get the whole stage in focus and the losses are adding up. You see, it is not merely the UAV’s, the planes or the helicopters. With 2 out of 3 you also lose a pilot and that is all BEFORE you start realising the price tag of such losses. Soon Russia must choose between a solitary drone strategy or taking forces out of other areas and that could have larger long term implications. 

No matter how Russia wants to spin this, the clear setting is that with a massive lack of logistics and supply systems as well as losing this much of its highest echelon of officers, the outcome will be that Russia can only go from loss to loss. That was seen less than an hour ago when the Ukraine liberated a fifth village. In addition to that Russia is now seeking direct control over the Wagner group. Apparently the cook wasn’t hacking it. In that case you will see a more dangerous setting. I for one have never seen any successful setting where mercenaries and soldiers worked correctly together and with a lacking general this gets nasty real quick, implying that civilians will be in a lot more danger soon enough and that is not good.

Try to enjoy the day.

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June 7, 2023 · 20:40

The boom what?

Yes, a few hours ago, the AL-Monitor gave me the news (and anyone else who reads it) that ‘Canada’s arms exports boom to Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar’ (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/canadas-arms-exports-boom-saudi-arabia-israel-qatar) now you think this is great news (as in size of the news), but you would be wrong. Canada, the other commonwealth nations as well as America are waking up to the coffee (optionally served by Tim Horton himself). When we read “most of the shipments coming from a $15 billion contract reached in 2014 but only approved for export by Canada’s current government” and you consider ‘Is it too little, too late?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/02/is-it-too-little-too-late/), which I wrote on June 2nd and you take the scale of the setting, you will see just how desperate the US is at present. Is it that Saudi Arabia is siding with BRICS? Is it because Saudi Arabia decided to cut production by a million barrels per day? Your guess is as good as mine, yet this is the setting and the Canadian BS line that it only got approved by the current government does not compute with me. This is the result of bad management on too many levels of US administration and now that the end-line is in view and the US is seeing that several nations, and a few not friendly to America are ahead of them. They are trying whatever they can to avert disaster and I am not sure if that is even possible at present. As I personally see it, China played the long game and they are now the expected winning team. Ahead in defence contracts with the KSA, ahead with infrastructure contracts with the KSA and Telecom contracts and now that the others are waking up, we get “The aims of Blinken’s trip, analysts say, include regaining influence with Riyadh over oil prices, fending off Chinese and Russian influence in the region and nurturing hopes for an eventual normalisation of Saudi Arabian-Israeli ties.” What a surprise! I wrote on June 3rd in ‘Would you believe that?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/03/would-you-believe-that/) where I mentioned Russia, China and Iran. I also gave a list where we see these 4 points now directly or indirectly mentioned. 

2. Oil prices.
3. BRICS membership.
4. Defence spendings lost.
5. Iranian diplomatic settings.

And it does not end there. The article (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/7/blinken-starts-saudi-arabia-visit-aimed-at-steadying-relations) also gives us “Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Washington, DC-based think tank, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that discouraging a closer Saudi Arabian-Chinese relationship is probably the most important element of Blinken’s visit.” With the underlining “[Blinken should explain] why Chinese interests do not align with Saudi Arabia and why closer relations in a strategic way inhibit closer relations with Washington”. You see, here is the delusional stage. They are thinking that America still has options. I personally believe it is too late for that, if that was the case then this stage would be handled in 2019 (2015 would have been better), not in 2023. As I see it China merely waited for the US and EU bungle this to the largest degree and that happened in 2020 as China successfully courted The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for a whole range of issues and with the US president labelling the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia a pariah, that moment was reached. It wasn’t merely the straw that broke the camels back, it inhabited the entire convoy of Camels and now the end-game is coming into focus. For me (where I am now) it would in part be nice if Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) pulls it off, but he will have to sweeten the deal by a massive amount, not merely 1-2 promises, but a whole range of issues on paper signed by the president of the United States and here Congress, as well as the Senate better get out of the way, the loss will be too great if they bungle this. Still the chances of success are slim as I see it. Too much has passed and even as the United Nations played its anti-Saudi cards it might not be enough. As such a whole range of issues that got started by a United Nations essay by someone no one cares about, just like that columnist, that names eludes me for now.

More of my ‘insane predictions’ as some trolls would say are now a matter of fact and slowly we see the facts placed on papers as what is ‘stated’, but last week there was none of this. As such is the media doing its job? Are they looking into matters? What else are they missing? For me the case does not change much, other than the chance that Amazon wakes up to the billions they are missing out of, for me Tencent Technologies is a viable solution, it might cost me a little, but that is nothing to what Amazon and Facebook will lose out of. Google decided not to go ahead in this direction and as I am seeing certain players evolving ideas I had on a few occasions, the timing is decent (but it could have been better), still in light of where America is heading, I should be thankful for every dollar I will get out of this deal and as I see it time is growing shorter and shorter. Still as we see America trying to avoid sinking on the spot, we are all in decent fear of how it hits us, because there is no way that the western world (as well as most Commonwealth nations) will not get hit to some extent. All because we had faith in ego driven idiots (sorry, I meant politicians).

So, how is all this playing out for you?

Enjoy the midweek, we are now at 50% of the next weekend timeline.

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June 5, 2023 · 21:12

Slam-dunk for the blogger

Yup, I got to call the slam-dunk in my name, on my name and for my name. Now, I am no basketball fan, not when there is the NHL. But I have to give it to the NBA, that term they got right. So this all happened in the morning as I was pondering what was next on the table. Then the BBC gave me the heads up (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65804768) with the ominous ‘Oil prices rise as Saudi Arabia pledges output cuts’. I had made mention of this danger a few times over the last month alone and now we get “Oil prices have risen after Saudi Arabia said it would make cuts of a million barrels per day (bpd) in July” and remember it is only a million barrels a day, my scenario was a little less nice. This is the exact danger that I predicted and now that it is going to pass, I wonder what the trolls will shout at me. I made mention yesterday that oil prices would be on the calendar of Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) and now it actually is there and it will be a rather not so nice meeting coming up, I reckon that Iran is no longer the main focus. This and the stage of BRICS implies that hard times are ahead for the US and I reckon to some extent the EU too. Because now the US is driven to make the million less be a larger setting for the EU than for the US. A stage well predicted and now it is coming to pass. 

It is Sameer Hashmi, the BBC Middle East business correspondent who gives us “it was widely expected the oil cartel would make production cuts to prop up prices. It appears most members were against the idea, as any cuts would impact oil revenues, which are crucial to keep running their economies.” He is not wrong, but the oversimplified setting is that they are going from 4 barrels at $3, to three barrels at $4. They all still get their $12 (and then some), but the larger stage  comes into play when the equation turns towards 2 barrels for $6, they will still get the same, but now their supplies will last twice as long. The larger problem for the US is that they get 50% for the same price and they still haven’t considered muzzling Brent Oil, those people export over 80% and now something will have to give and that is the stage we are coning to now. So when the UK and EU start feeling the pain of less oil there economy will impact to a much larger extent and as the Just Stop Oil people start shouting victory, the impact of people who cannot pay for heating bills, tradies that can no longer work because their prices need to keep going up, the setting of losses all over rural nations (UK, Germany, Italy and France the most) will be seeing much larger impacts. A stage that was clearly out there. The clearest recent mention I made was on April 13th (almost 2 months ago) at ‘The song remains the same’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/04/13/the-song-remains-the-same/) it was clear that reductions were in the focal point of OPEC members and in this Russia is merely sitting back, for them it works out nicely. But the larger stages of economy are not set to the drawback of oil lacks, no scenario was set to that and that is the largest political failure in the west. In this the one solution they had with Elon Musk is now slipping from their fingers. So not only did the US bite both hands that could be feeding them, whatever comes next might not be in time for the next debt ceiling, implying that default is the only thing that Americans have to look forward to. 

So in the end one player wins, the other player loses, but I get my slam-dunk. Is it fair? That is not the question, I saw this and I predicted this, so why did these high paid politicians not see this? It wasn’t rocket science (well perhaps the Musk solution was). And as options run short the west needs to rethink the political egotistical needs they had and how they will sail with a lack of vision. All that and more hardships will be coming soon and they did this all to themselves and that setting was clear long before Trump took office. A setting of cogs and the first cog will not care what the second and third cog faces. That is the oversimplified truth of the matter, so whilst we watch the news this month, also look at how much enough the people have with the ‘Just stop oil’ movement. As I personally see it, the UK got directly hurt by them and the CAAT all on moral grounds that were massively one sided and based on a fake moral high ground. So remember them when your pump price goes from 189.9p to 293.4p. Don’t blame the pump owner, blame the people who made this happen. 

Enjoy the day (consider a bicycle).

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June 4, 2023 · 22:24

Within a day

I wrote a few things regarding BRICS in the last two days and now (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/iran-saudi-arabia-uae-attend-brics-meeting-south-africa-bloc-mulls-expansion#ixzz83fKlbzuL) we see ‘Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE attend BRICS meeting in South Africa, as bloc mulls expansion’, so I admit that I didn’t see Iran to become part of that, but the UAE is a nice addition, it also changes the game. Not sure if Iran should be part of it, but that might appeal to both the KSA and the UAE. So when we see ““The world has faltered in cooperation. Developed countries have never met their commitments to the developing world and are trying to shift all responsibility to the global South,”Pandor said. Upon his departure from Tehran, Amir-Abdollahian hailed BRICS as a body that represents half of the global population and called his visit an example of Iran’s “active presence at international bodies” and a step in Iran’s “balanced” foreign policy.” We might see one thing, think another and wonder what is real. I wonder what Iran is doing there. Are they on invitation to settle Russia, or is Iran there to appease the Middle East? I have no idea, but I would consider that there are other more qualified nations than Iran, Indonesia for one. So is it about the powerpoint of oil? Your guess is as good as mine, but the idea that UAE would be coming is now a reality. The BBC did not mention that. As such are the sources of AL-Monitor better, or had the west filtered out Iran? I honestly do not know, but the photo from June 2nd implies that the BBC filtered out certain names. As such I was not aware of UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan and I only aw this article a few hours ago. Yet there too we see the stage of BRICS. If the western media cannot tell us the truth, when they rely on censorship and editing to give us adjusted filtered information, who are we telling other nations what to do? We see the attacks on China, Russia and the Middle East and yes, I do not disagree, but when we do the same, is this not the media station of the pot calling the kettle black? 

So when we get “In a pre-recorded interview broadcast on state TV after his departure, Amir-Abdollahian said that a key topic on his agenda in Cape Town would be “de-dollarization” in trade with BRICS member states.” What can we object to? The US is broke, it is merely sailing from debt ceiling raise to another debt ceiling raise. It has no exit strategy and did not have any for well over a decade as it caters to political ego and the rest of the world is awaiting actual action. Well, that setting will kind of explode in our faces as China will do what is best for China and the western world does not count there. It is harsh, but we let our politicians make it that way. So what is next? That depends on how BRICS will go about it. It is dependent on how they decide to hurt or restrict the moves by the US, and no matter how that slides it will hurt Japan in massive ways (which will please China). But beyond that there is no telling what will happen. I still think it was a mistake for them to add Russia in its current shape, but that is not up to me. I reckon that the country to can keep tabs on beats the one they cannot and it is a wisdom that is beyond me, BRICS is giving Russia a stronger voice which in current settings is not good, but that is me talking. 

My mind flies over the setting of “de-dollarisation” and how it will take form. But at present I have no idea, I will need to seek out as much information as I can. 

Enjoy the last day of the weekend, Monday is coming.

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