Category Archives: Finance

January 12, 2024 · 11:41

Warning to Google

This must be done. I have spoken out to others and I love my Google, my pixel (etc, etc) and as such it is important to speak out to them as well when it is called for.

As such it starts with the latest update to Android, the Pixel now gives the weather on my screen, this is great. Then the problem started. I woke up with my mobile saying it was cloudy and sunny. As such I went out to infuse my blood with caffeine. A process most people go through, especially at 08:00. So I walk out and I am drenched to the bone in about 45 seconds. 

As such whilst sipping coffee I take another look at the weather part. It was set to Sydney. OK, my bad. So I look at the settings and I add Burwood to the equation. But here the issue starts.

Google wants my GPS to be active. There is no reason to keep track of what I am doing and in addition to that, GPS is an additional drain on the battery. A drain I can do without. It would have been so easy to save that setting in the app. Just save Burwood. I am there 97% of the time anyway. You see here is the warning to Sergey Brin, Larry Page and Sundar Pichai. The world needs one less Microsoft, not one more and that is where you are heading. Living of captured data. You got ahead by differentiating yourself from Microsoft, not to clone its business practices making Google the big bad to become.

And it took seconds to see that saving the weather setting was the easiest. Some might like to activate GPS, some need it but forgetting those who do not like it is bad policy. You see the current big bad (Microsoft) has additional issues and more re coming their way.

They bought another gaming franchise and paid close to $100,000,000,000 for it. So at 6% (rounded down) implies that they need to make well over $6,000,000,000 to merely pay the interest. Their gaming business is stated to be making $3.9B per quarter, giving us that 100% will go into paying of this load (principle and interest) and that will take a speculated 20 years to complete. This is now a setting where we see in what I presumptively call a Ponzi approach to their businesses. 100 years later and some still think it is OK to be this stupid. I saw this in the late 80’s with a Dutch firm called Infotheek. They bought everything around them and they went the wrong side of bad soon thereafter. This is in part why I predicted that Microsoft will enter collapse by December 2026. They lost their battles against Apple (tablets), against Amazon (AWS), Against Sony and Nintendo (consoles), ad now they are shedding marketshare in Office and streaming isn’t going their way either and that will go from bad to worse when the Tencent Handheld becomes a global brand. This is what is out there and Microsoft is losing more and more battles.

Google, I do not fault you for leaving billions on the floor. You did drop the Google Stadia after all. But when we also see (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67937725) that the BBC reports that ‘Google’s billions make job cuts ‘needless’ – union’, we see a new pattern evolve. I am not judging on this move. There are always two sides and we see one side, but the image for Google is changing and that is not a good thing. They need to show themselves different. I for one (for more than one reason) are all in favour to change that workforce. Not to fire them but to give them a chance to pick up the billions Google left on the floor and there is more than one stage here, so there is a real option to pick up a lot of money globally and I recently gave the view on my blog. So I made it open to all (except Microsoft, they can sink to hell for all I care). 

So what gives? Why does a nobody (me) give a warning to Google? I reckon that is something you all need to look at as well. 

Enjoy the day, It is Friday here, in Vancouver not that much, they still have a bit to go.

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January 11, 2024 · 23:45

Clutter

It sometimes happens to any of us. Our brains get cluttered in all kind of ways and I am no different. For me it all started yesterday when Final Draft gave me a free update to version 13. It felt like that very late Christmas present you never expected, but when that email arrives you are more than double happy and I really felt the happiest I have felt that entire year (relax it was only day 10 of that year) but there you are. It was that happy surprise. 

So, as I am continuing that stride with the first script, this one meant for Al Saudiya, I see that I have a lot of work ahead of me. There is a mini series, a three season TV series and another series which has no defined size yet and all of them have parts all over my blog, as such I have plenty to do.

It was that point when I saw ‘Amazon to Lay Off ‘Several Hundred’ Across Prime Video, Amazon MGM Studios, 500 Cut at Twitch’, it wasn’t the Variety version I saw first, but it was the first that turned up now (at https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/amazon-lay-offs-prime-video-mgm-studios-1235867454/) there we are given “Additionally, 500 employees — or 35% of the workforce — are being let go at Amazon-owned livestream platform Twitch” this is not trim ming the fat. Even as Amazon has broken expectations all over the board. This is about tax year 2024 and this is about meeting the shareholder expectations, or at least that is what it comes over at for me. Mike Hopkins gives its staff members “It is hard to say goodbye to talented Amazonians who’ve made meaningful contributions on behalf of our customers, team and business. Thank you for your dedication and work. To help with the transition, we are providing packages that include a separation payment, transitional benefits as applicable by country, and external job placement support.” The fact that this is not some hard time point makes it a lot harder for some. 

But for good measure here is the music by Emil Stigler (at https://levysheetmusic.mse.jhu.edu/collection/185/093).

You might think I am making fun of the situation, but I am not. This one piece of music is now part of the Library of Congress. I don’t think that the composer imagined that when he wrote this in 1866. His music would outlive him by some length. Did we have any idea how timeless some movies would become half a century later? There was Jaws, Alien (not the short movie), Close Encounters of the third kind and Star Wars. 

All 4 movies relatively close together, these 4 and one in particular on the mind of movie watchers three generations later. To be honest, I never cared about Twitch, its not my bag of tea, but it has a following. Twitch streamers optionally earn money from sponsorships, affiliate links, some advertising, and a variety of other methods. Now, what comes next is largely speculative. Never cared ab out Twitch, but that service has 140 million Monthly Active Users as of 2024. The total number of active Twitch streamers is around 7.5 million. This number was 7.1 million In July 2023. That is a population that matters, this is not about trimming fat. I reckon that Twitch is up for offering but when it is offered it needs to become a clean package and now the 35% staff reduction starts to make sense. Amazon is gearing up for something, what for? I have no idea and this is largely speculative. I have no idea what is up and perhaps Amazon fears the competition it faces from Apple, Disney and Netflix. It might see what I expected would happen. People are unable to afford all four and in that race Amazon is the first cut from consideration. I honestly don’t know if Apple or Amazon is better, but Apple is making presented strides, as far as I can tell Amazon at present is not. 

So what gives?
March of the Amazons (1866) shows us that some gems are kept and in movies that matters. To have any of the previous 4 still on the mind of watchers matters because streaming is graded on what is watched and for how long and those 4 really broke the mould. The important part is that we cannot tell that at present with the new series, this process takes time and board members of any modern age are not a patient lot, they need to see overwhelming results or they cut things. I personally think it is a setting when the merely expect searing steak, all whilst the slow cooker presents its own kind of deliciousness. One is not the other and I personally think that the old metrics and approach do not work on streaming systems. That being said, Amazon seemingly dropped my IP not realising what 50,000,000 subscriptions in the first phase alone will get them. It is a cluster they never had and others never had either. Yet when we see this we see an optional speculation on what they are missing and speculation is where it is at. I have no clue why they are trimming the fat. I am guessing it is the 2024 results, to meet them head on and people are dropped because of that. However, I could be wrong.

I honestly wonder what possessed makers like Steven Spielberg, Ridley Scott, and George Lucas to make what they did. Not the normal setting, but what drove them from the inside and did they know or realise that they created cinema greatness? I never doubt that they wanted to make the best they could, but were they aware just how good it ended up being half a century later? Consider that movies in those days were made for a year, perhaps 2-5. We see movies like Coma, Chinatown and Deliverance and we all agree that they were great, but these 4 outlasted them all. Time works different when it comes to books, movies and music. So how to prevent to cut the people who could be making the next whatever. It was at this point that I realised that something had gone wrong. At some point someone thought that it could always be redone, the movie greats of the 70’s are largely gone. Perhaps monumental movies like Dances with Wolves are bound to happen, but when you consider the 4 from the 70’s, what is left? Dances with Wolves? Titanic? You tell me, but I personally fear that as Hollywood started to snag the process, they lost something and there is a chance that Amazon at present it digging its own grave, even thought they cannot see it yet. Even as they are (as speculated) trimming the fat. But there is one consideration. With that job loyalty is bound to go out the window as well. They might not care, but what happens when the next Herman Melville? You might not remember the man, but you do remember Mobi Dick, the book he created in 1851. That book is on some minds almost 175 years later. The slow cooker needs a different process, any chef can tell you that. I wonder how long it takes for the streamers realise that their process is set to different elements, to different seasoning. Just a question, but they appeared as I was dealing with the clutter in my brain. And as for the march of the Amazons? Consider that The Phoenix by Fall Out Boy is an average song, but when the speed is increased 17% it becomes a whole different story, yet this is the consequence of re-arranged music. As such I doubt that Emil Stigler is that, but I never looked at that part (I am not a musician), did you? We are unlikely to see another Darth Vader march by John Williams, I doubt that even he saw that his song would be so iconic 44 years later. That song calls for an image with billions, not something I would have imagined when I first heard it. I knew it was stellar, we all did, but this iconic? Streamers have a like minded setting to some music, different metrics are in play (still speaking speculatively) does Amazon realises that?

Just a question, enjoy your day, my Friday starts in 30 minutes.

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January 10, 2024 · 23:32

A 28 month delay

Yes, that is how I see it and it all started by a story in the Naval News (at https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/01/red-sea-crisis-houthis-demonstrate-increased-capability-coalition-demonstrates-increased-presence/) they were not alone, but there I saw a quote that set me in motion. The quote that set it off was “The introduction of a one-way attack USV is of concern”, you see that was an incorrect statement. I made clear reference of this in ‘The Iranian play’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/08/30/the-iranian-play/) there I wrote “Yemen has no infrastructure for this, Iran is the only player willing to supply Houthi forces and that is the problem” I wrote this 28 months ago and in 28 months the Houthi forces never gained the ability to do so, they never had the option or (at that time) trained staff to do anything we saw. The west and others sat on their asses all whilst the problem evolved and ONLY now, now that the fat cats are losing margins in the red sea, NOW we see action. So how stupid was that to begin with?

Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/10/us-uk-forces-shoot-down-21-drones-and-missiles-fired-by-houthis) gives us “No injuries or damage reported in what the US military said was the 26th attack by the Yemen-based group since November 19” as I personally see it, this is pushed by others, happy to use Houthi forces as cannon fodder, but the west remains ignorant and I personally believe it is an intentional form of ignorance. 

Who did anything to stop these drones from getting there in the first place? I can’t have been the only one seeing this 28 months ago? So who was drowning the proper investigations? Who was stopping the media from asking the right questions? Perhaps it was all for the digital dollar. I doubt it, I personally believe this was another setting towards destabilisation of the middle east. It is a personal view and I might be wrong, but ask yourself. Now we see what was clear that many months ago? Are the red sea margins that important to the west? Are margins all they care about or is all that only possible as the middle east stays destabilised? You tell me, I am honestly clueless on what the answer is. Yet when you consider how long these Houthi forces are receiving support in hardware and training all whilst the west has been unable to stop them? 

Now consider three of the least capable parties in all this CIA, MI-6 and DGSE and no one saw this? I will let you ponder all this as the news comes in. Yet consider The Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/10/britain-warns-severe-consequences-houthi-attack-red-sea-repelled) giving us “The Houthis, once seen as a minor localised military force, say the attacks are intended to force Israel to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza” all whilst I gave the lowdown 28 months ago and you tell me, who is doing a number of whom? 

Enjoy the moment when you are merely one day away from Friday.

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January 10, 2024 · 01:24

The other way contemplation

We do that sometimes. However, we do not do it enough and I am no exception. You see I have been looking into tourism and other hospitality data for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It pushed me to suddenly set the whole kit and caboodle in a topsy turvy setting. Not because I wanted to, but because it started to make sense that way. The more I saw internationally the more it made sense to turn it around.

In this there are a few players NICE was in pole position, but HAMAS pretty much made that a no-go. So that left the larger players like Alvaria and Avaya and none of them are ready and they need to get ready now.

Why now?
Dubai international airport will become the largest player on the planet this year. This means that to a larger degree hotels, convention centres and attractions also need to get ready. You only get one chance to make a first impression and so far these two players have done well. 

Yet I believe (unsupported by facts) that these two players took a page from American books and that makes them sales organisations. The changing setting over the next 10 years require them to be service minded and take a much larger page from the DISC system requiring a much higher page from the settings of integrity and stability. Support, contact centres and call centres depend on these two settings. I reckon that within 5 years too many American firms will have larger issues and staff issues is not the first on my mind. As such players like Alvaria and Avaya need to invest in setting their support systems in the UAE (Abu Dhabi makes the most sense when it comes to cost) but when it is working they will also need a station in Riyadh. 

Why?
We see the line, NEOM and Mukaab in Saudi Arabia. We see the growth of Dubai and both are about to boil over on tourists and that requires a massive call centre. Now, if it was merely one there wouldn’t be a big issue. Yet the station of all this is changing and I reckon that software development will change too. As such, how many native Arabic systems do you know? I reckon none, they would be niche and very rare. Yet the larger station for tourism becomes Egypt, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates and now that setting starts making sense. A Arabic first setting with English (and others like German, French and Italian) as a second language. That is not easily done and as such you need development in one of these places (starting in the UAE makes more sense). Beyond that it would still be some version of C with Java but set to Arabic settings. You will all cry foul and American developers will rely on BS shouts but the setting through BRICS in the middle east is changing and having a call centre in India will not cut it. Lets put it in another way. When you are risking millions (a lot of them) do you really want to rely on an Indian call centre with optional hardware and communication issues? 

There needs to be a presence there and so far none of them are catching on (I checked their career pages).  And when we get to 2027 and people are starting to figure out that more needed to be done there they are too late, the early work gets the business.

What’s in play?
The Line will host to 9,000,000 people (when it is complete), Sindalah is expected to have 2400 visitors a day by 2028 and Trojena for which $500,000,000,000 is reserved. That list of projects goes on for some time. Then there is the Mukaab that will house 7,000,000 people doubling the population of Riyadh. When you combine these there will be a massive shift towards service oriented solutions. And as far as I can tell at present only NICE was close to ready for that. That was before UAE with the largest airport on the planet came into play and their tourism is making strides requiring all kinds of service oriented solutions and they all better be talking to each other. When you consider all that a native Arabic solution starts making sense and even as EU and American players are in denial, their time is up and I reckon that the Chinese developers are already on that page (for other reasons) and it suddenly dawned on me that a native Arabic solution takes most of the hackers out of the equation. It might be C (or C#) and Java, but on an Arabic setting most of them won’t know what they are looking at and that is an additional security for the Arabic solution.

And when it is all added to a subtotal my view will start making sense. It is not out of the blue, I have been involved with customer care and customer support since 1988, I have seen so many systems and most of them were merely to serve sales and that time has gone. There is a reason it is called Software as a Service and not Software as a Sales-point. SaaS will be the future and predominantly as a cloud solution but there too we see differences and that is where the changes come systems will have to combine and transfer data as needed. So that a person from arriving airport to final destination home is never left out in the cold The more complete service solutions need to alter their behaviour. This goes beyond what we merely see now and KSA, UAE and Egypt would be first, but as this solution gets traction and speed the other players would want to get such a solution as well. The Marriott is merely a first stop. As the high end vacation goers will visit new places they will demand the service that the saw in the middle east and that is when the other systems collapse. They pushed these systems with additional servers additional seats but they forgot that these systems need interaction and their data settings were nowhere near ready for that. So you get people to do it (making AI claims) and watch it all come apart from almost the beginning. The Middle East is in a strong position to force creation of an Arabic solution and I reckon that there are enough millions connected to this to make the larger players jump. My vote would be for NICE, but HAMAS made that no longer an option. It is now up to the others to get ready or be passed by the player who did make that jump.

It is my view and feel free to disagree but the changes in tourism we already see happening are proving me right and when Mukaab and the Line are ready in 6-8 years they either have a solution that can take messages from 16 million people or watch the complaints section explode with messages on a near daily basis. 

Enjoy the day, it’s midweek here now.

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January 9, 2024 · 06:59

Just a metric?

That is at times a question and it is also at times a recognition. You see, metrics are at times just that, metics. We can sing high and low, but metrics are most of the times in a vacuum, that is until someone uses it to weave a story. You, I, we all do that. Some are clearly shown to be related, others are less so. As such the story that we see in the Khaleej Times (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/aviation/dubai-airport-could-join-100-million-passenger-club-this-year) could be either (initially). You see, the ‘Dubai airport could join ‘100 million passenger club’ this year’ and for the most will sing that it is just as meaningless as them joining the mile high club. But some comedians will point out that they were alone getting there. So as such it seemed like a nice thing to achieve. I saw the airport on YouTube and it does look impressive. 

So, when you consider it the numbers in a larger context it now implies that Dubai International Airport is about to become the busiest airport in the world. Leaving Heathrow far behind it and beating by a fair margin New York, Los Angeles and several other airports behind them which they should have been competing against. They are about to overtake them all. In 2022 they were fifth, they are about to get pole position in airport traffic. This implies that this airport deals with 11,415 passengers EVERY HOUR, that is some achievement, especially as Toronto Pearson International Airport (in 29th position) can’t seem to get anything right at the moment. These two metrics matter because this implies that Dubai is getting things done right and there is a connected metric. You see, I wrote about tourism (Saudi Arabia and UAE alike) and now we see a new metric. When you consider that many can only spend their holiday funds once, that a slice who are going to Dubai will not be able to go anywhere else. As such these other places will lose some visitors and that results in lower revenue in those places. I made mention of that a few days ago, but now you see a connected metric. For whatever reason these people have decided on Dubai (and the UAE) that is the underlying metric that should not be ignored. 

And the speeches are also setting the new stage that they are ready to receive 20% more. Yes, all nations will make presentations and the UAE is no different than other nations in that regard. Yet the larger station is that Dubai has a growing population for tourism. It has more options for tourism than many other nations and when you add Abu Dhabi and the sports they both hold, the appeal start making sense. People just want a nice time. They want a place where they can relax and Dubai is one of the places that delivers. Those who want to play hard go to a ditch (massively drunk) in Las Vegas, those who want to have a great time, are now deciding to give Dubai a try and the more it delivers the faster that tourism part grows. Now compare that to waiting lines. Escape from the Gringotts (Harry Potter Orlando) 45-120 minutes and some times at Disney (Orlando and Paris) are close to that horrendous. So when you can select a place with a lot less waiting times I could not see any clear numbers on Warner Brothers Abu Dhabi, but several sources claim you can see the entire WB park in a day. 

Now consider all the other places these two locations have and also consider Deep Dive Dubai (not really for the young tourists) and you end up going to a place with the most amazing and most unique diving experience that you cannot get anywhere else in the world. So others want to think this is a fab, a fashion moment? The world stood still and now others are taking charge to offer what people might like. I use the word ‘might’ because the consumer is a fickle person with no real destination in mind. Yet, as I see it. Dubai with its malls, its theme parks, even a skating rink and two Hockey teams (the real hockey on solid water) and now a growing football offering. It seems that they are doing everything right and the fact that they are about to break the 100,000,000 served passengers a year line is a pretty good indicator that they are doing it all very  right.

Enjoy the day and if you go to Deep Dive Dubai be nice to yourself and do not watch Jaws before the dive.

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January 8, 2024 · 01:17

Is it me?

This is a question we must all ask ourselves. In this case, it might be me. You see, I have issues with the CBC article (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-ontario-cities-aoda-1.7054848) where we see ‘Ontario cities need help — and cash — to meet 2025 accessibility deadline, advocates say’. There is (as I personally see it) a lot missing. The first thing I missed was ‘by 2025’, is that January 1st or December 31st? It is a serious question, the article does not bare that out (or was that bear that out)?

The second part is a partial setting. So when was this all agreed upon? Pre or post Covid. It might be well known, but the article should have given us that in stead of trying to find it. You see, pre Covid issues will have delays all off them (at least 90% off them) will face delays because the world has never faced covid before and Canada had a trucker issue as well. 

So when we get to “The city’s latest report on its accessibility progress listed 56 out of 63 of its accessibility goals as complete as of the end of 2022” I might not be up to speed on a few matters (as I am a little distant from Canada, yet in this 56 out of 63 is a decent achievement. The problem is that we see no timeline. So what timeframe were these 56 achievements gotten by? If it is one year it is awesome, when it has taken 10 years not that much greatness. But the article does not bare that out, does it? 

Then we get “In September, the TTC acknowledged 13 out of its 70 subway stations won’t meet the standards outlined in the AODA by 2025” I personally say that those without nuance will always slam, and advocates are really good at slamming, especially when they can ignore nuance. The other way around they are all about nuance, so go figure. There is also the missing part on why the TTC that 13 of its subway stations are missing these outlines standards. A list would have been helpful.

AODA
Now we need to look at a side of the Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act (AODA). I have nothing against it, I am all for such a setting even though it does not aid or help me. I recognise the stage it should protect. The fact is that I am a numbers man (data, not excel). So these 13 subway stations. What is missing and what size of ontarians are hurt because of it? It is a simple enough question. Now, this is not some kind of trivialisation. The numbers I am seeing are “The recent approximations show that there are estimated to be 382,700 deaf and 3,827,000 hard of hearing people in Canada (CAD, n.d., Malkowski, 2021). Out of these numbers, there are approximately 144,990 deaf and 1,449,000 hard of hearing Ontarians (Malkowski, 2021).” These are serious numbers. So how many blind? How many with mobility issues? More important what could be fixed? That 13 stations are missing out is one thing, how much they are missing out of is another and that too is not given to us. You see there are two kinds of people, the one whinges about everything, the other one tries to fix as much as possible and there is also a snag. Too much information is missing, the article does not bare out what could be fixed and how much more time is required? 

This is not an attack, but these are questions that should have been on the front of the mind of the chief editor of the CBC (I think that would be Brodie Fenlon), a mere simple setting we need to address. It is also a case that some subway stations have other constructions nearby which might have made issues more complex and Toronto is filled with construction tape and construction inhibitors all over the city. The final part is seen under a photograph. It is “The city of Toronto, along with other Ontario cities, needs more cash to help reach its accessibility goals faster” a simple setting that doesn’t get the attention it needs to have. So was it a budgeting issue, was it due to other factors? The more I look at the article, the more questions it raises and the first batch of questions goes straight to the CBC. Too much was missing here and the missing parts weren’t for a follow up. They should have placed it in this article.

This is how I see it and here I might be wrong. Too many people claiming to be journalists are blatantly dim on simple top-line graphics and numbers (or tables and charts) giving clarity where there clearly is none. So why was that?

Just a thought for Ontarians as they get through Sunday. Here it is Monday, so they could call me and ask what will happen tomorrow? A simply joke but it has me in stitches every time. In support of that, should I come to Toronto, I will be time travelling ;-).

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January 7, 2024 · 05:24

The biscuit loafers

Yup, lazy cookie dealers, or as you might know them ‘advertisers’. The BBC made me aware (yesterday) the story we see (at https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67882315) where we are given ‘Google Chrome starts blocking data tracking cookies’, now this was nothing new to me. I was ACTUALLY in a Google building in 2019 when that news hit. I took notice of it and that is about all I did. I am no Cookie Monster (this title was already claimed by a resident at Sesame Street). So when I see now “some advertisers say they will suffer as a result.” With the added “The UK’s competition watchdog, the Competition and Markets Authority, can block the plans if it concludes they will harm other businesses.” Now the question becomes. How fucking stupid can people get? This is not out of the blue, this was said 4 years ago. For 4 years the greed driven stupid population let things slide, they relied on abused technology to get their dollars in and the Competition and Markets Authority is allowing for that extended abuse? How about they do something about the abuse of the media? That’s a novel idea.

So now we get to one of the abusers, his name is Phil Duffield at the Trade Desk who gives us “Google’s solution, the Chrome Privacy Sandbox, which only works on a Chrome browser, likely doesn’t benefit anyone other than Google”, actually yes. It benefits the abused, the actual people surfing the internet. The people you abuse every 10 minutes in a game, or abuse in some way that a specific website pushes to other websites because you looked for a birthday present there that month. The actual users of the web browser, it benefits THEM.

But people like Phil Duffield are deaf to those comments. So why isn’t the BBC asking Mr. Duffield to give a complete account of what they did in the last four years? Why did they not ask him how he prepared to deal with that challenging claim of the removal of cookies? They had 4 years to prepare. 

So whilst you consider the setting of these whinging winers, lets take a look at part two, which is totally unrelated. Yet that second part gives you the larger stage of what happens when you have stupid people letting things slide. The stupid greed driven people on Wall Street no less. Take a look at the news that we saw in the last week regarding Wall Street and set this up against Arab News who gives us (at https://gulfnews.com/business/markets/uae-market-cap-soars-as-top-16-companies-hit-dh27-trillion-1.1704521660385) with ‘UAE market cap soars as top 16 companies hit Dh2.7 trillion’. Now, we get that this is a little confusing, so lets give you a hand and relate this. That mentioned multi trillion Dirham amounts to $735 billion (and change). 16 companies made seven hundred and thirty five billion dollars. And it doesn’t end there, these 16 companies was merely responsible for 74%, the total amount comes down to Dh3.65 trillion. This means that the others got an additional 191 billion. That is what not loafing implies. That is the result of being ready for what comes. For me it partially matters as Emaar Properties got Dh68.1 billion. A real estate mogul and in previous blogs you can see how I created IP that could have benefitted Toronto properties and it would most definitely benefit an Emirati player like Emaar Properties. I say that benefit well over a year ago and now I see that a player like that wants to grow and they could benefit by having an additional technology edge as well. 

Can I translate that into some percentage? No, I cannot, this is a technology no one has. And there is an upside to throwing any system upside down, it opens up additional revenue streams and even at 1% that amounts to an additional Dh680 million. To see this I needed merely one day to adjust the IP I had for Toronto. Phil Duffield. And his dodo’s (those who are about to become extinct) had four years. FOUR YEARS. I merely 0.068% of that to create something bringing in an additional stage that would bring more than Dh680 million. How much more? I honestly do not know, but that is more than I ever had in my life and I just checked my wallet, it is missing that $185,159,950 (I rounded it down to avoid having coins in my wallet). 

So when you put 2 and 2 together you will see that the whiners complain to some watchdog even as they had 4 years to prepare. Me? I merely create another piece of IP. The fun part is that when you put it all together, you see that these loafers left billions on the floor. But they still complain for their lack of imagination and lack of insight in a market where they are supposed to be some kind of captain of industry. Just like the captain of the titanic, he merely was a captain for 5 days, after that he was put ashore 3,800 meters straight down. Insulted? Angry? I get that, but be angry with the likes of these loafers not preparing and then cry foul because they are trying to extent their abuse of your privacy. The BBC never gave you that did they. Just like the Arab News didn’t give you the lowdown on those who never were part of that extended Emirati list. They went extinct just as commerce intended them to be. 

Lets pause a moment on that and realise that we are sinking our own ships by giving these loafers and whiners a platform to continue their limited sighted actions. 

Just a thought to have today.

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January 3, 2024 · 21:40

A strange evolving setting

I saw the article last night (really really early this morning) and it gave me something to think about. The article (at https://www.deccanherald.com/business/economy/with-russian-oil-imports-falling-india-turns-to-saudi-arabia-2832708) comes from Deccan Herald. I do not know them, but it is an Indian paper. The west doesn’t seem to have this. So lets look at what is weird. 

It starts with “at least five cargoes of the sweet Sokol variant heading to other locations, data from vessel tracking agencies showed.” Then there is “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” so whilst we see that imports of Saudi oil, rose by about 4 per cent, Russian oil declined by 22%, the numbers do not add up. I personally believe that Russia is in more trouble then they are letting on. I personally believe that a chunk of that oil is going to Iran to pay for drones. Iran might have oil, but it is embargoed, Russian oil is not and they can make transfer sales and fill their coffers up that way. Now, all this needs to be taken lightly, because there is only one source and I am speculating of that. Consider the deal Russian suppliers had with India. Also consider that by late July 2023, Iran had sent at least 400 Shahed and Mohajer series drones to Russia. That is close to $20 million, per $60 a barrel that is a whole lot of oil and the fact that India is getting less implies (implies is not a fact) that Russia has more than one issue at present. The Shahed drones are running out, more are needed and Russia (through several sources) are lacking in capabilities to get their own drones to the front. This all adds up that Russia has increasing issues to maintain their battlefronts, to maintain their Russian oil supplies and to maintain their manufacturing facilities. Napoleon lost with a lot less problems.

So whilst Saudi Arabia is seeing more revenue from their oil stocks, the question is how long that happens. It is not on Saudi Arabia, but once it is shown that Russia is lacking in a few ways the larger station comes that Russia will be fighting internal and external wars. 

So how right am I?
That remains the larger question. If any of the presented facts through sources is wrong, the entire domino wall comes tumbling down. None of this could be verified and the fact that only the Deccan Herald had this is also a point for debate. There are differences between the data of Kpler and Vortexa and that is fine. But the stage where Russia is delivering 22% less whilst there are implied reasons and none of this backed up by facts, together with the one mention of China with “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” makes me think that there is more going on and somehow someone paid for all those drones, Iran doesn’t give these toys away. 

So there is a stage where merely some of it could be right, but which part? 

In addition to Yesterday
Yesterday I talked about tourism. What I failed to mention is that there was data on the UAE. Reuters gave it 4 days ago (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uaes-abu-dhabi-sees-non-oil-gdp-growth-77-q3-2023-statement-2023-12-29/), I missed it.  There we see ‘UAE’s Abu Dhabi sees non-oil GDP growth of 7.7% in Q3 2023 -statement’. This is huge and it is non-oil growth. Now, this is not merely tourism, this is on more sides, but tourism will be taking a chunk of this. Poland with 1.4% growth is the biggest in the EU last year. This implies that the United Arab Emirates outperformed all EU nations by well over 500%. That is massive. Now, comparing GDP’s is unbalanced and incorrect, I get that. However, these settings imply that tourism in the US and EU are taking a serious dive in 2024. We can debate that this is merely a hiccup, or that it is nothing, a mere blip on the radar. But in light of their faltering GDP and places like Greece, Spain, Italy, London, Paris, New York and Florida need tourism these blips could have severe impacts in these places. If continued there is every chance that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will get access to $25-$30 billion and other places do not. Do you still think it is a little hiccup? Even when we see “Florida visitors contributed $101.9 billion to Florida’s economy and supported over 1.7 million Florida jobs (2021)” now consider that to be 5% less. How many jobs will go south? The European nations cannot even consider losing that much, it would be like the impact of Greek tourism (2002-2008) but now over three nations. That impact will be seen. 

So how accurate is this?
It is not. The reported numbers from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are, but how it affects others is not directly seen and can only be speculated on. What is clear that money spend there will not be spend anywhere else and that implies well over 25 billion lost to other places. How much each is impacted remains a guess. 

So enjoy the day and consider that special deals this summer will be all over Europe and America, so you might get a decently prized vacation this year.

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January 2, 2024 · 23:28

Change starts now

Yup, that is the setting. We can ignore it. We can deny it and we can oppose it. All choices that any of us can make. Are they correct moves? You tell me. I am not saying what you need to believe, I cannot say what you have to trust. But change has started. It basically started lat year, but now the changes start adding up. To see this we need to see the article in the Saudi Gazette (at https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/639241). There we are given ‘Spending of visitors to Saudi Arabia soars 72% to SR100 billion in first 9 months of 2023’. Now we can wonder how much it is, but it amounts to $26,000,000,000 dollars more spend in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Some will say ‘so what?’ And I get that, I have nothing to gain there either. But the fact is that the bulk of all tourists can only spend their money once. This implies that the 26 billion spend there is not getting spend anywhere else and that will matter to a whole range of people. Now, for the most I reckon these are Muslim tourists and they decided not to spend it in Amsterdam, London, Paris or some place in America. The part of the 72% more also matters. It means that as a tourist destination Saudi Arabia is starting to appeal to a whole lot of people. It means that plenty of other economies will not be getting them. As such, when a place like Australia gets only 1 billion less, it will be felt on most corners of any street. Not much mind you. However, there will be an impact. So, what do you think the impact is in London, or even America. America has had bad news after bad news and now there is one indicator that tourism has been impacted in America. It is only one indicator. I reckon that if places like Dubai also sees a larger growth. Places like Tokyo will most likely lose out. 

The fact that Saudi Arabia has been trying to appeal to a larger audience for tourism goes way beyond Islamic tourists. The moment their winter resort and their other places start opening up in the next 4 years, European and American tourist destinations will need to cater in a whole new way and they are for the most broke. They catered to self for so long that there are too little reserves left. The fact that more and more people are considering the UAE as a theme park destination over Disney-world is only now beginning to sink in. Ron DeSantis really messed that up. We get news messages like “Yes, fewer people are visiting Disney World, but the company has shown that it can raise profits by doing a better job serving fewer guests.” It is my speculations that either revenue goes down, or they will cater to a ‘wealthier’ audience, which implies it is a slippery scale to bad times for them too. Then Florida lose a 1 billion investment option by Disney (thanks to their own governor) and at that point an image starts to shape. Be careful what you see, because one swallow does not mean summer has started. Yet the larger stage that Saudi Arabia is creating will imply that their $26 billion windfall is merely the start of more. It does not guarantee success, it merely means that failure is almost no longer a consideration for Saudi Arabia. These things are not the same. But the thing that matters to me is that if that amount was spend there, it was not spend anywhere else and that is the stick that western tourism needs to deal with. There is every chance that it is already to late. There are a few indicators that the Muslim population (which is closing in on 2 billion people) are selecting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as their destination. That is the takeaway that I am seeing from a few articles, not just the one I am referring to now. 

There were more indicators and I wrote about them last year, but to see the result of 72% more in the last year is a definite number that has a much larger impact on global tourism. We will hear all versions of wisdom on how ‘experts’ say that there are solutions. I wonder where they are. You see the west and America specifically haunted the Islamic population and that population is looking for other places to visit. Now this will not imply all Muslims, but consider that 400 million go on vacation in 2024. The chances that they select Saudi Arabia and/or United Arab Emirates over all other destinations is not a large call to make. These players have been catering and perfecting their offers for a few years now and the hostilities they all faced everywhere else has them reeling for a solution and these two players have offers in spades. So as we see 2024, we need to keep an eye on what revenue goes where because the impact is close to global. 

Change is starting to become visible now, but it started last year and as these two deliver more, more and more muslims will consider another place to visit. Preferably in a place where they get a decent treatment as Muslims. It was never a hard sell, it was pretty obvious to begin with.

Enjoy today.

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December 31, 2023 · 13:03

Jan Klaassen, horn blower

Yup, at times this happens. We all have a need to blow our own horn. I am no different and as the world is not giving me any interesting news items. I decided to blow my own horn (of sorts) today. The thought got to me when I saw the article (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2434076/saudi-arabia) called ‘Year in review: How Saudi Arabia made its mark in tech, tourism, diplomacy and entertainment in 2023’ where we see “Successful bid to host World Expo 2030 and ambitious infrastructure projects make the Kingdom a must-visit destination” but that is not the part I saw pondering. It was “Saudi Arabia will look back on 2023 as a year of triumphs, having hosted major events in the fields of technology, culture, sport and diplomacy, while continuing on its path of impressive economic expansion and diversification.” With the added “The Era of Change: Together for a Foresighted Tomorrow,” I offered the Kingdom (via its Consul General) another option to impact millions of Islamics in a few ways, but alas I was turned down. This happens, no hard feelings. My thoughts might not be the thoughts of others and I did try to pass this onto The Kingdom Holdings (apparently also unsuccessful) and that is on me. It might be my wrongly stated view, but I feel strongly about that IP and I believe it would give the Kingdom additional options, especially in diversification. Now, I am trying to complete a ‘novel’ (my personal view) on a script that might appeal to Al Saudiya. Of course I have no high hopes that I will be successful, but I did put my foot in this and I plan to carry it through, successful or not. You see, we all tend to worship success, but I have seen innovation in failure. Innovation missed by Amazon, Apple, Google and IBM (no one cares about the other one, the company with the ‘M’ of mouse) and it matters. In this day an age where they are all presenting AI (which does not yet exist) where they all present on what comes next, I have shown them to miss all manners of innovation on several matters and my previous articles expose some of them. So whilst I am blowing my own horn (scandalously, I admit) we must consider that some are not as hungry for revenue as they seem to be, which was why I tried to sell some of my IP to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It was not that the United Arab Emirates were less of an option, but when the IP is shown in its full view, the choice of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia would make more sense to a whole lot of people and both could easily (very easily) afford it, that and the fact that both want to diversify I felt comfort in making the offer I did. 

Even now I see additional options in several fields (not all directly involving the Middle East), but as time lines go, they could benefit from at least one such path (one shown yesterday at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/12/30/almost-circular/). As such when diversifying it pays to consider paths that are not on everyones mind, but when you consider that path makes sense to many people. That is one side of innovation that we tend to forget. It is not the innovation where everyone is looking at (like no real AI), it is looking in the opposite direction and see what could be done there. As no one is looking, the player doing that could be the only one for some time. And when others wake up they either follow behind, pushing you to make a better product or set the stage for others to become serious players in that field. 

All this matters as it changes the fields and it changes the interactions between players and that matters because that change could affect a whole range of other issues.

Just my $0.02 on the matter. Enjoy the day and the festivities that follow today.

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