May 10, 2023 · 02:35

New IP on the fly

I got here a few hours ago. The setting starts with a rerun of Heroes season 1. I hadn’t seen it for a while, as such rewatching it was a good idea. Whilst watching it a few cogs started to turn. And for clarity this is all free for Sony and Amazon Luna developers (lets screw over Microsoft one more time). You see, in the beginning of the PS4 there was Infamous Second Son. 

I gave that good leaning towards average. Now, this needs explanation. The first is the start of the game which is amazing, the story is from beginning to end really good and Seattle was a great idea. The graphics were good leaning towards great, so why the score? There were a few issues. 

In the first the game is massively linear, you don’t realise it, but it takes steam out of a game that could have been great. In the second the linearity is numbing after a while. The third is the second part here you acquire the neon power is so powerful that you will rely on it until the end of the game. It was an awesome power, but the linearity of the game will allow you to maximise that power from the start. The side missions (the red and blue tasks) are in one area and it is the same repetition on every island. They didn’t take 3 (or 6) tasks on every area, no one per area. And the last part is the concrete power is never explored, it is merely there and when you get it, you have enough points to maximise it right of the bat and you never get to explore with that power new options in the city. It all makes or a bland end result. To add insult to injury, I did the Expert version in one go, something I normally never get to do, making it too easy overall. 

This nagged me when I was watching Heroes, the cogs starting to turn and this is what I came up with.

Infamous: Teams
Let the title not confuse you, it is a one player game, but I decided to take a twist in another direction, fuelling replay option again and again. In this version you control 6 people, but one at a time. We can set powers later and we could take a grasp at powers later, this is about the idea. You play one at the time and you only get to select the gender of the first character. There are three man and three women. The first one you select gender, but the system will assign one of the three to you in the first part. You learn the skill and you enhance the skill, but here is the kicker. There are a dozen places where you enter a place, or enter a location and you see on the screen something happen that involves a super powered being/mutant and that is the moment you switch to that next person. There is one setting, if you start with one gender, the next person will be the other gender (story related) and that drives us to to settings. The stories are separate but to some degree created by the system, as such we could play new games for a while and the story is unlikely the same story. The second is good and evil. You get a choice to once select that in the first character. The good will hug, or connect the heads, evil will push their fingers into the skull of the other and syphon the power killing the person. My version of Petrelli versus Sylar. It is then that the game changes. You create a sort of copy of THEIR powers whilst it also enhances YOUR powers. The good will deprive the powers leaving the person a normal, whilst the evil part kills the other making you more wanted. In case of the good there is a second setting, there is not always a choice, as such in one case a car (or elevator) pushes them together, on another case she gives him a passionate hug pushing her powers into him and so on and the nice part is that we can design a dozen ways and you will get different events per game. Linearity and expected thresholds are now avoided, something most games do not have. The idea is that as a team both get more powerful, as such there is no gain immediately grabbing the power of the other one. If we relate this to Second son, we would enhance smoke with video, not merely have two powers. In the beginning smoke will become faster and more powerful, yet after the merge with video, there would a static smoke and EMP smoke, but now in a setting with 6 new powers and that is when the mix becomes interesting. When power one becomes a second tier, the third power will be different again. Now you have a whole new range of issues and it will affect how you play the game. The video power allowed for invisibility, but in the game you seldom used it. I want to change that and with these 6 new powers It is the challenge to find a balance of stealth and full on clobbering (sorry thing). I have not decided on a location, but I feel driven to make it Amsterdam (I made at least one other game Amsterdam too). Because Amsterdam has its canals, there is a water element through the city (freeze, fish take your pick). 

With the power mix above I show how it works to some degree, the second adds green (blue and yellow) but the third is orange making brown (orange and green). This gives a new setting, you see the third influences the second and adds power, but in that random setting the game when a new game is played could play out a lot different. Especially when we add mental or passive powers. No game (as far as I can tell) has ever done this before. And whilst Amsterdam had my first preference, the location is not set in stone, I merely wanted a place that was not used before giving the international players a new place to explore.

The story of Second Son was pretty good, but we will need a new story, we actually need 6 new stories and that is the rub too, one of the 6 is the main character, but the others have their stories and they mix. A new challenge not seen before to this degree. And this is the 4th game I put online, whilst Microsoft spending billions currently has nothing to show for it, actually they do. According to Forbes, Redfall is in the top 15 worst reviewed games. So how many billions did they spend on that company? Evil laughter starts now and I will put more ideas here, good times for Amazon Luna and Sony, not that much for Microsoft, but that is how the cookie crumbles. 

Enjoy the day.

Leave a comment

Filed under Gaming, IT

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 9, 2023 · 08:39

Discarded

That happens, things are discarded, things get thrown away. Yet how do we react when it is a child? That was the thought that came over me when I saw the news on CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-rosedale-memorial-girl-dumpster-1.6835095) giving us ‘Rosedale community members hold memorial service for little girl found dead in Toronto dumpster’ Now some will gasp in horror, some will react overly emotionally, yet is that fair? I am seemingly unwavering in my lack of emotions. I have no idea who the child is and the people over there in Canada are reacting, some more emotional then others. Yet from a basic point of view there is the stage of why should we care? Don’t get me wrong, if you care fine, nothing against it. I have no children, never had them so the first emotional block is not there. Then there is the realisation of all the paperwork that hits a person when a relative, sibling or child dies. At times I wonder why people care more about the ‘after’ care than the actual care. The fact that at present no one has a clue who this child was proves my point. CBC gives us “Investigators don’t believe the girl was ever reported missing to police in Canada.” This is not on the investigators, but consider that this child has been gone for well over a year and no one noticed any missing child in their direct vicinity. This is an issue. Was the child illegally there? That is a possibility. I do think that if she was not illegally there, then there is an optional security issue. The child’s existence could be used to get a fake person into Canada. Then we get Michelle Miller-Guillot, a member of the Rosedale Presbyterian Church stating “Every child deserves a name, every child deserves to leave this earth with dignity, with some honour” this is a fair believe to have and it is fine to have it, but at times I wonder if that is true in Christianity, why do we see the mention of Canadian Indian residential school gravesites nearly everywhere? What dignity and honour was bestowed on them? We see quotes like “between 3,200 and 6,000 students died while attending the Canadian Indian residential school system. The exact number remains unknown due to incomplete records.” So no records? The Anishinabe of Wauzhushk Onigum Nation, comes from one of several searches underway at former Indigenous schools across Canada and in that setting (source: NY Times) gives us that this has happened for a century, so where is the honour and dignity there? 

So was this all about a child in a dumpster, or is it about something more? But thee is one thing that bothers me, the original inhabitants of the America’s (US and Canada) have throughout history discarded their native inhabitants in many ways, as did the UK convicts (Australians) to the aboriginals. History (and christians) were not kind on original inhabitants of land and one child in a dumpster will not bring that out, but it needs to come out. Over 30 Native American tribes are now extinct. Just out of curiosity, how many people got the history lesson in Primary or High School regarding the California genocide? I reckon that this number is pretty low, I can tell you that internationally it never showed up in our curriculums as far as I am aware of. I only learned about the aboriginal slaughter through a movie called ‘Quigley Down Under’ (1990) a gem with Tom Selleck and the late Alan Rickman. What we did in the past matters and it is becoming more and more important to realise that when we look at places like the middle east. We are hard pressed to get some flaky Human rights report like “Access Now and Global Partners Digital are proud to launch a new report, Evading accountability through internet shutdowns: Trends in Africa and the Middle East”, yet the reality is that Christians were great at that for centuries going all the way back to Tomás de Torquemada, Grand Inquisitor of the Tribunal of the Holy Office (1483-1498) as such we have plenty of dirty laundry in our baskets, not to mention of the well over a thousand of clergy that had a go at the minors in their churches. So why are we up in arms about this child? Is it because it happens under the eyes of the law and administrations? It did not do the thousands of First Nationals attending the Canadian Indian residential school system any good, did it?

Just some food for thought as you leave Monday behind, ready to entertain Tuesday your attention.

Leave a comment

Filed under Law, Media, Politics, Religion

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 8, 2023 · 10:33

The driven mind

I need to take you on a little journey. Last night I had to look up two teams. Dubai (of all places) has two hockey teams, the Dubai White bears and the Dubai Mighty Camels. That led me to the fact that they both have the Dubai Mall Ice Rink as their home rink. The important info like what makes someone from Dubai select one or the other was not revealed. Is it like a suburb, is it a north, south, east or west side selection? But that got me to the Dubai Mall Ice Rink and what I saw blew my mind. The rink is ACTUALLY part of the mall, you can stand a level higher, walk out of a shop and watch the game live at that location. Apart from the fact that I have never seen anything like that, the Dubai mall is as far as I have ever seen it the most beautiful mall in the world. I got that from the video ‘Dubai Mall | The World’s Largest Mall | Weekend Shopping’ (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvjyuMcCcdI) and that place is amazing, but that go me to the video. A video of a person fast walking through a palace. Straight view like the filmer was wearing blinders. We never see the windows of the shops. I saw the waterfall (which was awesome) and I saw a whole other range of things, but the real deal, the mall. I saw too little, no real view on the shop windows, no real view on the building interior. Like a rat running a maze, never wondering what the walls look like and this is not a simple cardboard wall, these are walls of marble and gold. The shopkeepers take every effort to make their place the best looking place on the planet and the filmer rushes by them like one attracted to the smell of cheese just a corner away, just the smell, never the sight. What a shame to show a mall, that mall of all places like that. 

If you want to see more of the actual mall there is ‘Inside Dubai’s $20 Billion Dollar Mall’ (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8ockpQebDA) more of an advertisement, but you get to see some of the real wonders in a mall and what a mind blowing experience it is. I took a look at a few more videos. The idea that my augmented reality solution is deployed there is awesome, but there is one consideration. This mall engages people, at that point the AR solution is mere advertisement. That is not bad or wrong, it merely is a consideration. On the upside there is a hockey rink, as such I see it the Dubai mall is as close to heaven as I am likely ever to see it.

But the driven mind seeks information. The chase video is nice, but watching a rat race will tire the mind soon enough, the filmer obviously never considered that part of the equation. I tend to over-consider these parts and of course (in light of my IP) looked for bookshops and found no information and more news then I wanted. Still, I got that information too. And what I found was an interesting part. This is the place where my IP has the least power, it actively engages audiences in many ways. It is clear that the people behind the Dubai Mall have figured out what creates an engaging environment, other malls should take notice. Not with the aquarium, 99.5% of the malls in the world do not have that kind of funding, but the options to engage with customers, a kids zone, the souk. Local solutions that could be transformed for people in Canada, the UK even French malls. And whether it is local culture, Arabian culture or both. Malls need to create engagement. My IP was designed for it and for me Dubai Mall was a revelation. You see, it is not when IP is maximised, it is when you s IP becomes less effective, that is when you see more, as such Dubai Mall was a revelation. My IP will still have value, not as much as in many other places and that is the cornerstone, the niche if you want to call it. As the borders of your niche are more clearly defined, you get the option to define new borders and optional new additions. It wasn’t given by a blank slate, it comes from seeing your limitations, the stage we face when others are already there and Dubai mall is clearly in the engagement phase. 

As such my mind is not trying to warp IP to fit their vision, it becomes a field to see what could be added to give the IP more value. This is what drove my 6G consideration to create a larger stage for Real estate a new propagation of real estate. As such I wonder if my AR solution will get new options to grow, new tentacles to grasp new opportunity, if we see the IP as a solution to grow, we need to test the IP in a place where it has little options to grow, because that is when we see what other directions become possible?

Have fun today, the first day after the weekend before.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , ,

May 7, 2023 · 12:11

Changing the narrative

That happens at times. Narratives are slightly altered, but in this case? The media to a much larger degree are changing the narrative of the strikes at the Writers Guild of America. Is it because of advertisement needs? Is it because the streaming corporations now have a hold on them? You tell me. In this I have two examples. The first is ABC and even though the headline is deceptive, they do give all the facts. 

Yet others are seemingly not doing that. They are all about the AI side, yet the two largest issues which are the unbelievable amount of underpaid writers as well as the streaming revenue where writers get next to nothing are massive issues. ABC does mention them but plenty of them do not. I saw at least a few of them copying other texts almost to the letter and no mention of streaming issues. Why is that? It is all nice that the WGA is on strike and picketing, but the media should at least take one small effort to hand the real issues and all of them to the public. The media has lost enough credibility as it is and as such we need to wake up (and fast). 

As I heard it new media (streaming) was not addressed satisfactory the last time around, because it was really new. So to read that some writers creating winning series need a government handout to get by is clearly insane. And it will cost Hollywood a lot more then they realise. What happens when the Commonwealth (Australia, Canada, United Kingdom) take over? What happens when the Dubai stage of G5 starts catering to global streaming? What happens when China with Tencent Technologies adjusts to this stream whilst paying a proper income? America might shun it all and stats that these series are not welcome, yet I believe that parts of Asia, Europe and the Middle East are ready for change and Hollywood better tarts realising really fast that the latter three players are close to 60% of their income stream. When that falls away it will be one of several multi billion income streams falling away. First Defence, then IT now streaming and as I see it both the UAE and China are chomping at the bit to take a slice of that income stage. 

So whilst the media is pondering how to cater to advertisers, they better realise that when that falls away they have nothing left. One of my IP will already hurt advertisement money to a decent amount, the streaming industry will hurt a lot more when the shift to any of the other three players come through. All stages that were out in the open for all to admire, that was until the media changed the narrative as I see it. I have no idea how long this strike will last, but at the end when writers vacate to a place where they end up having a decent income, plenty of series will collapse, perhaps not completely, but several will lose the little talent they had at their disposal. Yet for these providers there is still one option, a reality show based on republican politicians with real republican politicians. They will take any limelight that will have them and it could be hosted by Tucker Carlson, apparently he is looking for a job. So how is that future of streaming? Yes, there is an upcoming issue with AI, but that will take time. The fact that paid writers still require government handouts whilst these series make billions is disgusting and it will not take long until some will show the people this and plead that we cancel out streaming subscriptions. What happens when the people on mass agree?

Enjoy Sunday and consider the price of what you are watching on your streaming channel.

Leave a comment

Filed under Media, movies

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 6, 2023 · 19:59

Having the ball

Yes, sometimes we have the balls, sometimes a little less so. Yet in the BBC court we see two players (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-65244351) one is FIFA the other one is EA. So whilst we got on April 24th ‘Fifa no more? EA Sports rebrands its biggest game’. Yes it has been 2 weeks, but I do not particularly care about FIFA, so I left it alone. Yet this afternoon a few thoughts fell through. They came up in the first hour I noticed it, actually they came up about 5 minutes after the announcement that EA was going to drop FIFA. There was a plan for them, I had no doubt about that and 2 weeks ago we got the gist. “the developer behind one of the most successful franchises in gaming history, moves on to its new football game, EA Sports FC.” Just like Fortnite having its spasms, EA has a plan to avoid FIFA costs and I reckon that they wanna keep all 5 billion of that revenue. And we get “Mr Jackson emphasised that more than 19,000 footballers, 700 teams and 30 leagues will still be represented in the game, despite the split from football’s governing body.” Yet the larger impact is one some are not realising. How are these all represented? The IP of football shirts are partially set things like “the FIFA online store for officially licensed national team kits” are in many places, as such EA has issues. They are ‘focussed’ on “EA has also unveiled its FC Futures programme, which it says will support grassroots football projects across the world” which I personally see as ‘the party line’, but FIFA has its claws in its field, so the player is in for a surprise or two. Now, this is not necessarily bad, but the history of the loot-box is fresh, they need a new approach and I have no idea how they will go about that part. Also FIFA was way too big with 700 teams, so what gives there? 

And then we saw the game in a dangerous setting “The new Fifa game, Fifa 25, 26, 27 and so on, will always be the best e-game for any girl or boy”, and as this becomes an E-game, parents better realise that this comes at a cost. I reckon EA will play it softly and slowly change their grip from silk glove into a vice. Five billion is nothing to be sneered at and no matter how slow it happens, it will happen. We will see all the excuses, all the ‘mis communications’ but no that FIFA is cut off, EA will play a very different game. Some will be thrown by “everything you know and love from the modern FIFA games, including Ultimate Team, Career Mode, Pro Clubs, and VOLTA. You can expect the same attention to detail and number of official licenses, too.” In this I am not certain, but I need to see evidence before making that call and EA is playing this close to the chest at present.

And here is the kicker, as far as I can tell, at present there is no confirmed news on whether EA will follow the free-to-play route with EA Sports FC or not. This matters, because an E-sport that is not free to play could easily start at $5 a week, that is almost $25 a month making the game a lot more expensive whist after month 2 EA will be raking in the money. If it is free to play, the player will need to rely on premium packs at $7 each, so how does that math work out for you? 700 teams, 19000 players. How many packs will that be? Perhaps the player has one free team (depending on where they are) the rest not so much. And this is a problem, but also this view is speculative. EA is keeping its hand closed, so until they reveal we really do not know. 

The larger stage is ‘avoided being seen’ with “We do see ourselves as the world’s game. And as a result, we need to meet players and fans, where they are. This is a great embodiment of our commitment to football in general.” You see, I did (and still do) see loot-boxes as non-gambling. Yet FIFA was in a stage of exploitation and now that they cannot ‘hide’ behind the FIFA brand they have a much larger issue, because like most companies, they are hesitant to give away the 5 billion in revenue, even though they keep most of it now, they aren’t Amazon or Google (who wasted billions) EA has a bottom line, it has revenue depending shareholders, so if this goes south there will be a culling in EA management. 

Yet until the ACTUAL announcements come (not all the speculations we see everywhere) we will have to wait and as the game is expected to come in late September, I expect that the whole enchilada will be revealed no later than July, so roughly 8 weeks away, but that too is speculation from my side.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Gaming, Media

Tagged as , , , , , , ,

May 5, 2023 · 22:14

A state of banking

Yes, the banking issues remain and they are seemingly getting worse. This is seen in the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65467019) where we are given ‘Credit Suisse: Asia investors sue Switzerland over bank collapse’, which reads funny, but that is the effect of lawsuits. Yet that article and the BBC article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65370751) named ‘£55bn withdrawn from Credit Suisse before rescue’ gave me reason to pause. This was not some setting of chance. Can you grasp how much £55,000,000,000 is? That is not some account, some people. That is the works of a few titans and someone gave THEM the heads up. So when we are given “The Swiss banking giant said 61.2bn Swiss francs left the bank in the first three months of the year” there I an issue, this is not merely a bank run. Then this many multimillionaires are running for the hills, someone set the watchtower on fire and stated, run for your life. Yes, it is highly speculative, but 55 billion pounds? That is serious cash in any economy. So when we consider the first article and we see “Already a Credit Suisse client for several years, he bought around $500,000 worth of bonds in January despite the bank having been hit by a series of scandals and compliance problems over the past few years” as well as “The type of bonds he bought from Credit Suisse are known as AT1 bonds, or contingent convertibles. They normally carry high yields for investors but are considered among the riskiest bonds that banks issue”, so in January this person decided to take a high risk setting, and in that time, or at least over the next 6 weeks when a staggering amount of billions pulled out, that person sat still? I know there is a sucker born every minute, but this comes across as the emperor of all suckers. Then we get the mother of all issues “Central to their claim is who was given priority when the bank failed. The terms of the bonds, seen by the BBC, show that bondholders are, if possible, supposed to be compensated first, after which come shareholders. But in practice, shareholders were allowed to exchange their Credit Suisse shares for UBS shares, albeit at a vastly reduced value.” There we see two parts. The first is ‘if possible’ which is a dangerous subjective term, the second is the stage of when they were alerted? How reachable were they?

Then the second article gives on tiny sliver. It is “Credit Suisse had been loss-making and had faced a string of problems in recent years, including money laundering charges.” As such, at what moment in delusional time is buying bonds in a loss making company a good idea? That is beside all the legal issues (including money laundering). In which situation (when it is not a government) are you investing in bonds in something that is losing money? Those in March (if they had done their homework) would have seen dozens of billions of pounds leaving that ‘sinking’ vessel. Only those with a peculiar sense of delusion are setting their up their portfolio in such a place. And when we see the end of the article giving us “The deal, when it was announced, valued Credit Suisse at $3.15bn (£2.6bn), whereas on the Friday before the settlement was reached it had been valued at about $8bn.” A place that is a mere 32% of its value in a week and 55 billion went the way of water whilst the bank went the way of the dodo. When a bank is a mere 8 billion and 55 billion left its shores? Even if half leaves the shores, I would be running like Forest Gump and no chocolates would be required. So I ask you are these investors that banked on governments saving their coin (and hide)? Is that what governments do now, all whilst they fail to hold banks to account?

I will let you decide, enjoy the weekend.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Politics

Tagged as , , , , ,

May 5, 2023 · 00:09

The missed off-ramp

We all have that, we are focussed on one path, one one goal and as such we miss what is in the corner of our eyes. This is not new and no one is impervious, not even me. I was so focussed on my IP and for decent reasons that I forgot to look at what else is possible. In this the Amazon Luna has additional options. The idea that it could be used for all kinds of education wasn’t lost on many, but did they consider the larger field here? 

So in comes a treasure of the past. In 1990 Sid Meier released Railroad Tycoon and it would spread to nearly every home computer on the planet. It was informative and at times educational. Yet the setting could be altered. Yes we can remaster that game and perhaps that is a good consideration. Yet the larger station is not a new version but a totally new game. So what when we do this involving shipping, not merely as a game, but as an educational tool. A setting that starts in the 12th century and from there the ‘student’ gets to create a ship, start an economy and over time we grow from one ship to a fleet, from local boats (educating us on shipping and fishing)  to cargo vessels. The players will get introduced to ports and port costs, profits, margins and in a way that sets a diary towards economics and history, the ships will give people understanding on engineering even mathematics (something keeps that thing afloat). When the game is merely a vessel of distributing knowledge and education the premise of a system changes and that offers a larger tribunal towards educating new and young minds. If ‘the shipping world’ is merely a step, what more can be done? I saw games on the workings of a law firm, too much game, but the idea had options for growth and that is where the educational off ramp becomes stronger. Yes, parents are all up in arms against children playing FIFA and Fortnite, but what happens when educational games get a much stronger appeal? What happens when the next generation gets a new infusion on mathematics, economy, history, engineering and even sciences? This is merely one game, so what happens when the next generation gets an additional education in culture and languages as well. We need to look at the Middle East and Asia where these solutions will find eager minds. India has well over a billion people and when we consider Indonesia, Pakistan and India, the solution would come close to 2 billion minds that is one hell of cluster to consider and my IP was nowhere near that large but it adds to the setting and those two stages are off ramps that neither Amazon nor Google considered seriously. Google even dropped their Stadia, even though it had options, but they never saw it and now there is merely Amazon, with Tencent following closely, for Amazon too close even. All due to missed off ramps these two giants left billions on the floor and now Tencent Technologies is almost in range to pick it up themselves. We all miss opportunities, but Google and Amazon left the opportunity on the floor for close to two years. Do you think that Tencent technologies will make that mistake? 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Gaming, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 4, 2023 · 01:30

Indecisive and on the fence

I was on the fence for part of the day. You see, I saw (by chance) a review of a game names Redfall and it was bad, like burning down your house whilst making French fries is a good day, it was THAT bad. Initially I ignored it, because haters will be haters. I hate Microsoft, but I go by evidence, not merely my gut feeling or my emotions. So a little later I got to be curious, you see the game was supposed to be released a day ago and I dumped my Xbox One and it is an exclusive, so I couldn’t tell. As such I looked a few reviews and they were all reviews of a really bad game. It now nagged at me and Forbes (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2023/05/03/redfalls-failure-is-microsofts-failure/) completed the cycle. There we see ‘Redfall’s Failure Is Microsoft’s Failure’ with “Redfall reviews are in, and they are terrible. What could have and should have been another hit from Arkane, maker of the excellent Dishonored, Prey and Deathloop, is instead what may be the worst AAA release in recent memory” and it does not end there. We also get “two hours in, I understand the poor reviews and do not understand the handful of good ones. This is a deeply, strangely bad game, so much so that I truly don’t understand how it was released at all in this state” and that is the start of a collapsing firm forced to focus outside of their comfort zone and the fun part (for me) is that it was acquired by Microsoft for billions. So we are on track to make that wannabe company collapse by December 2026. I added my IP for developers exclusively for Sony and Amazon could help, but the larger stage is that Microsoft is more and more becoming its own worst enemy. Yet, I do not rely on that alone. Handing some of my IP to Tencent Technologies will help. Sony is making them sweat but I cannot rely on Amazon with its Luna, as such Tencent technologies is required to make streaming technologies a failure for Microsoft too. So whilst we mull “we are left with now-goofy-sounding tweets from Phil Spencer announcing last year’s delay, saying that they will release these “great games when they are ready.” Redfall was not ready. And given what’s here, I’m not sure it ever was going to be.” I personally feel they were not, but they did something else, something worse. It was tactically sounds, it really was, but they upset the gaming community. They took away the little freedom gamers had and now we are all driven to make Microsoft fail, whether it is via Amazon, or we will engage with new players like Tencent Technology and add to the spice of Sony, but Microsoft will pay and now it becomes even better, they now have a massive failure for a mere $7,000,000,000 not a bad deal (well for Phil Spencer it is) and that is not the end of the bad news. As Tencent accepts my idea they will create an almost overnight growth towards a $5 billion a year market and they will surpass the Microsoft setting with 50 million subscriptions in the first phase, how far it will go, I honestly cannot tell, but when the dust settles we will enter 2026 with Microsoft dead last in the console war and in the streaming war and that was merely the beginning. They lost the tablets war already, they will lose ‘their’ edge war and ChapGPT will not aid them, a loser on nearly every front. That is what happens when you piss of gamers. To be honest I never had any inkling of interest in doing what I do now, but Microsoft made me in their own warped way and Bethesda because of it will lose too. They will soon have contenders in fields they were never contested before and this failure (Redfall) will hurt them more than they realise.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Gaming, Media, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , ,

May 3, 2023 · 09:23

The empty wall

That happens, the writings is not always on the wall and now with the writers strike in the US, that wall may be empty for some days. Before I go into the now, lets consider what happened 15 years ago when the writers had their fill of exploitation. They went on strike for 100 days and the cost to the California economy was a thumping 2 billion dollars. That setting just now after covid would buckle many players all at one, making the US economy take a turn down in a stage it cannot afford it. There are other elements as well, but they do not matter at present. I was thrown by stories last week about writers that were living on US support. The people that are the foundation for billions in profit are not given a fair shake. How is that for greed and exploitation. They are not asking for the moon, they merely want a fair shake, a decent income. And I cannot see why not. I write stories, I created the foundation of movies and TV series. As such I identify with their needs. Not because of the income or the work I am in. I write for fun and to keep my skills honed. Yet the power of creation is strong and I can identify and side with anyone who made that their life’s ambition. 

As such when the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-65447046) gave me ‘Hollywood strike: Late night comedy shows to go dark as writers’ walkout begins’ I took notice. It wasn’t merely “A Writers Guild of America (WGA) strike, the first in 15 years, saw more than 11,000 writers – 98% of voting members – walk out from midnight. Tuesday’s late-night shows are expected to shut down first, while forthcoming shows and films could face delays.” This wasn’t merely a majority rules setting. 98 percent agreed, that is more than strong. It shows that the greed driven parties have taken things too far. I know it is not that simple, but that is the feeling it gives us. In. Place like the US where most people cannot agree one way or the other, 98% agreed and that number needs to sink in with many of us. We see the late night show references, but the larger stage is that this is not about one employer, one show or one movie. This is about the bulk of all and that matters, especially when a person like me throws the terms ‘greed’ and ‘exploitation’ into the mix, because that is how I feel about it. When I see stories about creators of successful series being on government support, something does not add up and these two term come to mind. 

And there is a larger stage with “This time around, writers are clashing with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) – which represents the major studios, including Amazon, Disney, Netflix and Paramount – in demand of higher pay and a greater share of the profits from the modern streaming boom” the BBC gives us part, but I believe that there is more. You see when we see ‘a greater share of the profits’ we think it is the writing, but what we forget that streaming profit streams in ‘ad infinitum’ and even if that were true, that is not what the writers get, nowhere near what the writers get. To give a simplistic version, if that setting was completely true. A person like Dorothy Catherine Fontana could (due to her involvement in Star Trek The Next Generation) buy David Hasselhoff out of his $51 million mansion and take it for herself. Even if she got a mere $0.05 per episode, Star Trek TNG has been running in syndication since it aired in 1987 and it is still running at full speed on Netflix, even today. Not all series get there and not all do that well, but there is a time gap, there is a larger stage. Consider that a radio station has to register every record they play, because the composer gets a royalty fee, this has been going on for decades. So why is there no setting for streaming? Now, I am over simplifying this and I am setting a slightly inaccurate example but the premise stays the writers want a fair shake and when we see that industry make billions, why not? The stage is that streaming is a new media that is not completely understood. Some see it as a temporary stage, some see it as the next iteration in media and there is a reason that studios are jumping on that train, it is where the consumers are and during that jump some thought it was a sweet deal in a few ways, yet the people creating those series are largely forgotten, that is how the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and its members feel about it and when you have to make ends meet that feeling of happiness sour in seconds and that is what I believe we see now. 

And when we see “Key issues in the talks have been how writers get paid for shows which often remain on streaming platforms for years, as well as the future impact of artificial intelligence on writing.” And here again we see two different settings. You see AI does not exist, whatever comes from these solutions isn’t created from the mind, it comes from data, data that these writers contributed. See it as an IT solution to cloning the writers mind, based on data the IT solution never created in the first place. So how long until they are made obsolete? And when I see “The AMPTP said it had offered a “comprehensive package proposal” including higher pay for writers.

But it was unwilling to improve that offer further “because of the magnitude of other proposals still on the table that the Guild continues to insist upon.”” I do not see a solution or a proposal, I see a stalling tactic, a way to keep more and hand out less to a people who created the success in the first place. In this Jimmy Fallon (the comedian) gives us “Arriving at the Met Gala, Fallon said he hoped the strike would not go ahead, but at the same time wanted to see “a fair deal” agreed for writers. “I need my writers real bad, I got no show without my writers”” which I think is the true part and with ‘a fair deal’ he hits the WGA nail on the head, I wonder how long it will take the AMPTP to take a serious stand and not true to negotiate part by part and with a ‘win’ on every segment. You see,100 days is enough for some streamers to find whatever they can in Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, not to overlook Korea, Japan and India. All players that will have time and with 100 perhaps even longer to find players to go for THEIR solutions. They have been in the dark a lot longer and they are hungry for desperate streamers. How much damage will that bring. I reckon it will be more than the $2,000,000,000 the industry had the last time and when that happens, who will win? I feel certain that at that point the AMPTP will not feel like a winner. You see, a player like Netflix relies on its 230 million subscribers, especially outside of the US, their subscribers will look for other solutions when Netflix does not deliver. All this whilst the WGA and its members merely seek a fair deal? This could end up being a mopping exercise whilst the tap remains running. A lot of energy going nowhere and the spectators can clearly see that tap running. The empty wall is not merely the lack of creativity, it will be the result by not decently rewarding creativity. But it is early days, it is merely week 1 of the setting, the writers are adamant. How strong is the AMPTP deal? I honestly do not know because I have not seen any of these documents, but writers that take hunger over food whilst being underpaid is not a good setting, greed never wins over desperation, history taught us that lesson the hard way a few times over.

Enjoy this marvellous day past Sunday.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, movies

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 2, 2023 · 12:57

Wages of fear

That happens, we at times decide to take a very risky road and US politicians more than most, but now they are about to head into shallows with a cruise liner? You will state that this is no big deal, tugs will pull it into deep water and normally you would be right. Yet in this case the cargo is nitroglycerine, so as it hits the shores the ship goes badaboom, a really big badaboom and it is not a ship we are talking about, it is the US economy. So as we consider what is about to happen, lets give you an example.

Netflix


Netflix at present (and over the last year has had well over 225 million subscribers, giving it an annual payday of well over $27,000,000,000 which is not too shabby, a good setting to work from.  So after the 17 billion in new media it has over 10 billion and change, I reckon that 50% if not more into technology, as such they are doing fine.

US Economy
Now we get into a less good place, the US economy and do not mistake one for the other. The US economy has many. Complexities, but the setting does not change, it needs to pay bills. As such we rely on Forbes giving us “The National Debt Approaches $32 Trillion, Will It Bankrupt America?”  (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2023/04/25/the-national-debt-approaches-32-trillion-will-it-bankrupt-america/) and this is where two groups are opposing, those in denial claim it will not be so (very wishful thinking). I myself and many others are on the opposing side of the debate. Forbes gives us “The current revenue of the federal government is approximately $4.6 trillion while spending exceeds $6.0 trillion. Thus, the current budget deficit is over $1.4 trillion. It’s clear that members of Congress are spending like drunken sailors and like the Titanic, the U.S. is on a collision course with a financial iceberg” yet this is merely one side of the shallows they are heading for. You see, that we get from another side (the New York Times) who gives us that the US is running out of money somewhere between June and September. Yet that is not the whole enchilada. These two parts should alert you to the US Bonds fiasco, I tried to warn you a few times over. You see whilst everyone is cheering on bonds, there is a downside. These pesky papers mature and even as the interest payday seems small (1.65%) over $20,000,000,000,000 that still ends up being a $330 billion invoice and the budget does not take that in. OK, it is not all due immediately, but a rough estimate gives is that in the next 4 years $2,400,000,000,000 does and that is still a massive amount. Add to this the budget deficit that has been going on for years and you see the problem the US economy is heading for. It might never have been avoided, it could have been delayed by a lot. And with the current deficits, where will the US find $600 billion annual in maturing bonds (2023-2027)

I warned of this 25 years ago when I called for a tax overhaul where companies (Google, Facebook, IBM, Apple, that loser Microsoft and several more) would pay their fair share, merely their fair share.

The point of no return was reached when Barack Obama became president of the United States. Lets be clear, this was NOT his fault, but the point where we cannot avoid what comes next was achieved. If only people had woken up a lot sooner. But there we got past a point where the problems would accelerate and now we are almost at that point. And the banks will be no help. I tried to warn you a few times over. Some of their risk and liquidity is in US bonds and when the US forfeits payment your 401K and many other things will become worth close to nothing. So if you wonder where wealth of middle class incomes is, look towards Mexico. 

And will it get worse? Yes, but how remains an issue for now. Politicians will give way to wealth and rich friends first, so that they an get their slice and these people will go to Monaco, Dubai and the Bahamas. Many of them saw this coming and they already have places there, they have had them for years. So what can be done? Actually nothing, it is too late for that, all the whining and claims will fall flat and merely moves the timeline. The American children will know what true poverty feels like, they will get there at the end of their teens or early adult life. There are a few things that will happen, pushing forward bonds will be the easiest and convincing these owners to sell to appointed people or let it ride for a lot more, but that is a bill that adds a decent amount. Whomever has a billion in bonds and is offered 3.8% instead of 1.65% will consider it and I reckon that this is why we now see 20 years bonds (personal speculation). But after that the options go dark, really dark and that is what banks fear too, because the next bank run will take away a truck load of liquidity. It is like the stowaway that went for the happy shores or America, only to learn that the weather is foul and they suddenly realise that the cargo hold is filled with Nitroglycerine. Would you chance swimming, or hope for the best. Don’t forget that the shallows were YOUR saviour, not that much for a cruise-liner with combustibles.

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , ,