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Lost thoughts

The is where I am, lost in thoughts. Drawn between my personal conviction that the AI bubble is real and the set fake thoughts on LinkedIn and Youtube making ‘their’ case on the AI bubble. One is set on thoughts of doubts considering the technology we are currently at, the other thoughts are all fake perceptions by influencers trying to gain a following. So how can any one get any thought straight? Yet in all these there are several people in doubt on their own set (justified) fringes. One of them is ABC who gives us ‘US risks AI debt bubble as China faces its ‘arithmetic problem’, leading analysts warn’ (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-11/marc-sumerlin-federal-reserve-michael-pettis-china/105992570) So in the first setting, what is the US doing with the AI debt? Didn’t they learn their lesson in 2008? In the first setting we get “Mr Sumerlin says he is increasingly worried about a slowing economy and a debt bubble in the artificial intelligence sector.” That is fair (to a certain degree) a US Federal Reserve chair contender has the economic settings, but as I look back to 2008, that game put hundreds of thousands on the brink of desperation and now it isn’t a boom of CDO’s and stocks. Now it is a dozen firms who will demand an umbrella from that same Federal Reserve to stay in business. And Mr. Sumerlin gives us “He is increasingly concerned about a slowdown in the US economy, which is why he thinks the Fed needs to cut interest rates again in December and perhaps a couple more times next year.” I cannot comment on that, but it sounds fair (I lack economic degrees) and outside of this AI bubble setting we are given “US President Donald Trump has recently posted on his social media account about giving all Americans not on high incomes, a $US2,000 tariff “dividend” — an idea which Mr Sumerlin, a one-time economic adviser to former US president George W Bush, said could stoke inflation.” I get it, but it sounds unfair, the idea that an AI bubble is forming is real, the setting that people get a dividend that could stoke inflation might be real (they didn’t get the money yet) but they are unrelated inflation settings and they could give a much larger rise to the dangers of the AI bubble but that doesn’t make it so. The bubble is already real because technology is warped and the class cases we will see coming in 2026 is base on ‘allegedly fraudulent’ sales towards the AI setting and if you wonder what happens, is that these firms buying into that AI solution will cry havoc (no return on AI investment) when that happens and it will happen, of that I have very little doubt. 

So then we get to the second setting and that is the clam that ‘China has an arithmetic problem’, I am at a loss as to what they mean and the ABC explanation is “But if you have a GDP growth target, and you can’t get consumption to grow more quickly, you can’t allow investment to grow more slowly because together they add up to growth. They’re over-invested almost across the board, so policy consists of trying to find out which sectors are least likely to be harmed by additional over-investment.”

Professor Pettis said that, to curry favour with the central government, local governments had skewed over-investment into areas such as solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles and other industries deemed a priority by Beijing.” This kinda makes sense to me, but as I see it, that is an economic setting, not an AI setting. What I think is happening that both USA and China have their own bubble settings and these bubbles will collide in the most unfortunate ways possible. 

But there is also a hindsight. As I see it Huawei is chasing their own AI dream in a novel way that relies on a mere fraction of what the west needs and as I see it, they will be coming up short soon, a setting that Huawei is not facing at present and as I see it, they will be rolling out their centers in multiple ways when the western settings will be running out of juice (as the expression goes). 

Is this going to happen? I think so, but it depends on a number of settings that have not played out yet, so the fear is partially too soon and based on too little information. But on the side I have been powering my brain to another setting. As time goes I have ben thinking through the third Dr. Strange movie and here I had the novel idea which could give us a nice setting where the strain is between too rigid and too flexible and it is a (sort of) stage between Dr. Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch) and Baron Mordo (Chiwetel Ejiofor) the idea was to set the given stage of being too rigid (Mordo) against overly flexible (Strange) and in-between are the settings of Mordo’s African village and as Mordo is protecting them we see the optional settings that Kraven (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) get involved and that gets Dr. Strange in the mix. The nice setting is that neither is evil, they tend to fight evil and it is the label that gets seen. Anyway that was a setting I went through this morning. 

You might wonder why I mentioned this. You see, Bubbles are just as much labels as anything and it becomes a bubble when asset prices surge rapidly, far exceeding their intrinsic value, often fueled by speculation and investor orgasms. This is followed by a sharp and sudden market crash, or “burst,” when prices collapse, leading to significant rather weighty losses for investors. And they will then cry like little girls over the losses in their wallets. But that too is a label. Just like an IT bubble, the players tend to be rigid and whole focussed on their profits and they tend to go with the ‘roll with it’ philosophy and that is where the AI is at present, they don’t care that the technology isn’t ready yet and they do not care about DML and LLM and they want to program around the AI negativity, but that negativity could be averted in larger streams when proper DML information if given to the customers and they dug their own graves here as the customer demands AI, they might not know what it is (but they want it) and they learned in Comic Books what AI was, and they embrace that. Not the reality given by Alan Turing, but what Marvel fed them through Brainiac. And there is a overlap of what is perceived and what is real and that is what will fuel the AI bubble towards implosion (a massive one) and I personally reckon that 2026 will fuel it through the class actions and the beginning is already here. As the Conversation hands us “Anthropic, an AI startup founded in 2021, has reached a groundbreaking US$1.5 billion settlement (AU$2.28 billion) in a class-action copyright lawsuit. The case was initiated in 2024 by novelist Andrea Bartz and non-fiction writers Charles Graeber and Kirk Wallace Johnson.” Which we get from ‘An AI startup has agreed to a $2.2 billion copyright settlement. But will Australian writers benefit?’ (At https://theconversation.com/an-ai-startup-has-agreed-to-a-2-2-billion-copyright-settlement-but-will-australian-writers-benefit-264771) less then 6 weeks ago. And the entire AI setting has a few more class actions coming their way. So before you judge me on being crazy (which might be fair too) the news is already out there, the question is what lobbyists are quieting down the noise because that is noise according to their elected voters. You might wonder how one affect the other. Well, that is a fair question, but it hold water, as these so called AI (I call them Near Intelligent Parses, or NIP) require training materials and when the materials are thrown out of the stage, there is no learning and no half baked AI will holds its own water and that is what is coming. 

A simple setting that could be seen by anyone who saw the technology to the degree it had to. Have a great day this mid week day.

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The start of something bad

That is how I saw the news (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/tech/dubais-10000-ai-firms-goal-to-redefine-competitiveness-power-uaes-startup-vision) with the headline ‘Dubai’s 10,000 AI-firms goal to redefine competitiveness,  power UAE’s startup vision’ there is always a risk when you start a new startup, but the drive to something that doesn’t even exist is downright folly (as I see it) and now it is driven to a 10,000 times setting of folly. That is what I perceive. But lets go through the setting to explain what I am seeing.

First there is the novel setting and it is one that needs explaining. You see AI doesn’t yet exist, even what we have now is merely DML (Deeper Machine Learning) and it is accompanied at times with LLM (Large Language Models) and these solutions can actually be great, but the foundations of AI are not yet met and take it from me it matters. Actually never take my word, so lets throw some settings at you. First there is ‘Deloitte to pay money back to Albanese government after using AI in $440,000 report’ and then we get to ‘Lawyer caught using AI-generated false citations in court case penalised in Australian first’ (sources for both is the Guardian). There is something behind this. The setting of verification is adamant in both, You see, whatever we now call AI isn’t it and whatever data is thrown at it is taken almost literally at face value. Data Verification is overlooked at nearly every corner and then we get to Microsoft with its ‘support’ of builder.ai with the mention that it was goo. It lasted less than a month and the ‘backing’ of a billion dollar went away like snow in a heatwave. They used 700 engineers to do what could not be done (as I personally see it). So we have these settings that is already out there. 

Then (two weeks ago) the Guardian gives us (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/08/bank-of-england-warns-of-growing-risk-that-ai-bubble-could-burst) ‘Bank of England warns of growing risk that AI bubble could burst’ with the byline “Possibility of ‘sharp market correction has increased’, says Bank’s financial policy committee” now consider this setting with the valuation of 10,000 firms getting a rather large ‘market correction’ and I think that this happens when it is the least opportune for the UAE. This take me to the old expression we had in the 80’s “You can lose your money in three ways, first there are women, which is the prettiest way to lose your money, then through gambling, which is the quickest way to lose your money and third way is thought IT, which is the surest way to lost your money” and now I would like to add “the fourth way is AI, which is both quick and sure to lose your money” that is the prefix to the equation. And the setting we aren’t given is set out in several pieces all over the place. One of them was given to us in ABC News (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-20/ai-crypto-bubbles-speculative-mania/105884508) with ‘If AI and crypto aren’t bubbles, we could be in big trouble’ where we see “What if the trillions of dollars placed on those bets turn out to be good investments? The disruption will be epic, and terrible. A lot of speculative manias are just fun for a while and then the last in lose their shirts, not much harm done, like the tulips of 1635, and the comic book and silver bubbles of the late 1980s. Sometimes the losses are so great that banks go broke as well, which leads to a frozen financial system, recession and unemployment, as in 1929 and 2008.” As I personally see it, America is going all in as they are already beyond broke, so they have nothing to lose, but the UAE and Saudi Arabia have plenty to lose and the American first are good to squander whatever these two have. I reckon that Oracle has its fallback position so it is largely of, but OpenAI is willing to chance it all. And that is the American portfolio, Microsoft and a few others. They are playing bluff with as I see it, the wrong players and when others are ignoring the warnings of the Bank of England they merely get what is coming for them and it is a game I do not approve of, because it is based on the bluff that gets us ‘we are too big to fail’ and I do not agree, but they will say that it is all based on retirement numbers and other ‘needly’ things. This is why America needs Canada to become the 51st state so desperately, they are (as I personally see it) ready to use whatever troll army they have to smear Canada. But I am not having it and as I see “Dubai’s bold target to attract 10,000 artificial intelligence firms by 2030 is evolving from vision to execution, signaling a new phase in the emirate’s transformation into a global technology powerhouse. As a follow-up to earlier announcements positioning the UAE as the “Startup Capital of the World,” recent developments in AI infrastructure, capital inflows, and global partnerships show how this goal is being operationalised — potentially reshaping Dubai’s economic structure and reinforcing its competitive edge in the global digital economy.” I believe that those behind this are having the best interests at heard for the Emirati, but I do not trust the people behind this drive (outside of the UAE). I believe that this bubble will burst after the funds are met with smiles only for these people to go out of business with a bulky severance check. It is almost like the role Ryan Gosling played in the Big Short where Jared Vennett receives a bonus of $47 million for profits made on his CDSs. It feels almost too alike. And I feel I have to speak up. Now, if someone can sink my logic, I am fine with that, but let those running to this future verify whatever they have and not merely accept what is said. I am happy to be wrong but the setting feels off (by a lot) and I rather be wrong then be silent on this, because as I see it, when there is a ‘market correction’ of $2,000,000,000,000 you can consider yourself sold down the river because there is a cost of such a correction and it should 100% be on the American shores and 0% of the Arabic, Commonwealth or European shores. But that is merely my short sighted view on the matter. 

So when we get to “Omar Sultan Al Olama, Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence, Digital Economy, and Remote Work Applications, said the goal reflects the UAE’s determination to lead globally in frontier technology. “Dubai’s target to attract 10,000 AI companies over the next five years is not a dream — it is a commitment to building the world’s most dynamic and future-ready digital economy,” he said. “We already host more than 1,500 pure AI companies — the highest number in the region — but this is just the beginning. Our strategy is to bring in creators and producers of technology, not just users. That’s how we sustain competitiveness and shape the industries of tomorrow.”” I am slightly worried, because there is an impact of these 1,500 companies. Now, be warned there are plenty of great applications of DML and LLM and these firms should be protected. But the setting of 10,000 AI companies worry me, as AI doesn’t yet exist and the stage for Agentic programming is clear and certain. I would like to rephrase this into “We should keep a clear line of achievements in what is referred to as AI and what AI companies are supposed to see as clear achievements” This requires explanation as I see whatever is called as AI as NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) and that is currently the impact of DML and LLM and I have seen several good projects but that is set onto a stage that has a definite pipeline of achievements and interests parties. And for the most the threshold is a curve of verifiable data. That data is scrutinized to a larger degree and tends to be (at times) based on the first legacy data. It still requires cleaning but to a smaller degree to dat that comes from wherever. 

So do not dissuade from your plans to enter the AI field, but be clear about what it is based on and particularly the data that is being used. So have a great day and as we get to my lunch time there is ample space for that now. Enjoy your day.

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The light goes on

That was the setting and it is all on me. You see, when you consider the setting of a greedy billionaire ‘wannabe’ (President Donald Trump) I would be settled in the knowledge that he knows what he was doing (silly me). Yet the interview that someone had with Jen Psaki gives us a whole new ballgame and the facts she hands us might fit the premise. I use might, because she is a democrat and they have a natural fear/distrust of Republicans. So I was set on the opposing view, but as we are seeing. The way he basically destroyed American Tourism, the distrust he gave all international travelers who are unlikely to return until close to a year after he vacates the White House. The way he is dealing with the Russian setting that is going on at present and a whole range of other settings (like tariffs) and the way he made an enemy of Canada gives her explanation some credit. 

We see it in MSNBC (at https://www.msnbc.com/the-briefing-with-jen-psaki/watch/psaki-trump-may-be-too-clueless-to-understand-consequences-of-his-shutdown-249077317970) the title ‘Trump may be too clueless to understand consequences of his shutdown’ is a rather rude wake up call. And if he is apparently that clueless, is there a greed driven setting to his $500,000,000,000 Stargate project? So when we get “Jen Psaki points out examples of Donald Trump not being aware of what his own administration is doing, or of the fallout of his own actions, raising questions about whether Trump understands the political consequences of the harm he is causing the American people with his shutdown of the federal government” we are getting second thoughts on the political views that America has. Could it be this simple? And as we get this, how can Americans be safe from the dealings of some person who is clever enough to grasp 1+1, but fails the concept of 2+2? We might think this is a mere offset of 100%, but the implications are seen when we consider that 5 AI and 5 AI is not 10 AI, but goes somewhere towards 496 AI clusters, you do need the implied grasp of Near Intelligent Parsing (AI does not yet exist) and as Jen points out, there is seemingly a lack of communications in this White House administration. And that is enforced with the ABC view we were given on Saturday when we saw ‘Trump reverses $187M funding cuts for New York counterterrorism after bipartisan outcry’, the fact that New York got any cuts in the first place makes me wonder how clever that person was and $187 million is a whole mountain of money and it wasn’t that the so called New York City Police Department (NYPD), which divides the city into 78 precincts and various specialized units like Counterterrorism, Emergency Service Unit, and K-9 units, and the New York State Police (NYSP), organized into 11 troops for statewide law enforcement had a whole lot of money to begin with. That is one of the oldest police forces on the planet consisting of roughly 50,676 individuals. So did anyone get the memo how the $187 million cut was achieved? I don’t care if it was reversed, that cut could be seen as evidence that this white house isn’t fit to address milk money for the United States kindergartens. 

And all this is seemingly a day after Jen Psaki gave us ‘‘A perfect storm of ugly’: Trump’s policies are devastating U.S. farmers’ where we get “Jen Psaki reports on how Donald Trump’s trade war, combined with his weird favoritism for his international buddies like Argentine President Javier Milei, has resulted in brutal economic conditions for American farmers. Not only is Trump devastating their businesses, but Trump’s policies are hurting their living expenses and particularly their health care costs.” And that is where we get the US shutdown, the Democrats are refusing so sign anything that is cutting healthcare as it is done. Millions will end without healthcare and that is on top of the hardship given to them by decreased incomes because the tourists have been driven away. Did anyone consider the damage that 15% less tourism costs? We see that ‘generic’ $12.5B less, but the impact is a lot more. Farmers, B&B business (and all connected businesses) and that is happening in Florida, California, Nevada and New York. I got to $80B-$135B (it is hard to get a precise reading. Yet there is a chance that January will reveal somewhere around $100B and there are posts that I did not consider, so it might end up being worse. But not to fret, AI will make it all fine. That is until you realise that AI at present does not yet exist and that is where you might wonder what the $500B was used for. Some are giving the setting that it is bout mass monitoring of the people in the United States. I have no idea, but I do know that these Oracle implementations will be considered essential as they are the only one to make it work either way and as we are considering the setting that this is an essential setting no matter how it goes, consider the setting that Jen Psaki gives us with “Donald Trump not being aware of what his own administration is doing” it seems like a heartless and anti republican speech, but what we have seen gives rise to all this and considering that these ‘data centers’ are requiring power, the setting that I evoked with ‘How is this powered?’ We see a failing of media and administrations scurrying to give some excuse, all whilst that setting cannot continue without massive verification and massive power influxes and there is seemingly no sign of that. 

So what happens when someone switches the power on in these data centers and the power goes off (for the most) in Austin and San Antonio? I am just asking but the premise that Jen Psaki gives us is one that required mulling and the press is seemingly not doing that and hasn’t done that for at least a year. So what are they here for? Playing courtesan to the digital dollar?

Food for thought, so as I have had my brekky, it is time to become a nuisance again for at least 15 hours. Have a great day.

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The time has come

I have been sitting on a story for about three days. I have been hesitant as it is a field I am thoroughly unaware off, but it could hit me in the future and as we are given (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-19/first-guardian-shield-collapse-asic-and-superannuation-flaws/105783328) the setting of ‘First Guardian, Shield superannuation disasters expose deep flaws in Australia’s $4.3 trillion retirement system’ we see that ABC is giving us not only cause for pause, but also cause for alarm we are set in a stage of almost desperate inability to protect our retirements. And lets be clear if Australia is set to a $4.3 trillion danger, what is the dangers towards America, Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Germany? 

I tried to illustrate dangers like this in ‘Wages of fear’ which I wrote in May 2023, two years ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/05/02/wages-of-fear/) and there I wrote “Lets be clear, this was NOT his fault, but the point where we cannot avoid what comes next was achieved. If only people had woken up a lot sooner. But there we got past a point where the problems would accelerate and now we are almost at that point. And the banks will be no help. I tried to warn you a few times over. Some of their risk and liquidity is in US bonds and when the US forfeits payment your 401K and many other things will become worth close to nothing” Now the fair question is, is this the same? I don’t think it is, but there is a larger failing into the retirement systems as it is not a hands on pathway. ABC in another story hands us “Ms Wohlers is one of about 12,000 Australians haunted by the loss of more than $1 billion of retirement savings after the collapses of First Guardian and Shield.” As well as “ASIC deputy chair Sarah Court, who has commonly described the First Guardian and Shield cases as “industrial-scale misconduct”, says the regulator acted as soon as it could. “We don’t think we missed red flags,” she told ABC News ahead of ASIC’s appearance at a parliamentary hearing on Thursday, when she was grilled by politicians about whether it was a tough cop on the beat properly identifying financial misconduct.” And it relates to the story we are given with ‘140 targeted by ASIC on Shield, First Guardian’ as I see it, a mess of a disastrous kind. Where the latter gives us “So, for example, the financial advisers are saying to us ‘you can’t hold us accountable for this because the ratings house had rated the Shield Master Fund as of investment grade’, while superannuation fund trustees are telling us the same – ‘well, we relied on the ratings houses’, or ‘we relied on the fact that these members had financial advice’,” (Source: Financial Newswire) I see it as a setting where there is a ring setting with no beginning and no end. I am in a setting where Microsoft could steal my IP and my only defense would be to convict 280,000 Microsoft employees to death and kill them myself. I get that this is utter madness, but that would be the result of one party just playing a game with other whilst that party knows that they cannot be held to account. I remember the rating houses in 2008 and they got away whilst millions lost it all. I see the simpler setting “You take from me, I take from you” and the setting that Microsoft losing over 45% of its staff (I am utterly destined to fail) making it implode on itself. Now take that to the setting of rating houses and the the truth comes out (if it ever does) the people need to react and react harshly. It is not ‘business as usual’ it will become business at the cost of souls and that is a harsh reality to face.

So whilst some will lawyer up and that is their right, they should not be allowed to walk away with even a dime. I reckon that they will sue the rating houses and those rating houses will need to get sanitized (to some extent) because losing billions is a larger setting and when Australia with their billions in losses (up to 4,300 billion) the setting for America and Canada is a lot more severe. And America up to ten times as much as Canada faces. And about a month ago we were given ‘ASIC takes further action against Ferras Merhi over First Guardian and Shield superannuation advice’ where we are given “ASIC has sought leave from the Federal Court to expand its existing proceeding against former financial adviser Ferras Merhi to allege he engaged in unconscionable conduct, failed to act in the best interests of clients, gave conflicted advice, and provided defective statements of advice whilst receiving millions of dollars.” Yet my question becomes did Ferras Merhi do anything illegal? You see, in my setting I would be, but did he do anything illegal? The setting revolves around “provided defective statements of advice whilst receiving millions of dollars”, so what makes a statement ‘defective’? You see, I am not protecting Ferras Mehri. I am looking at the following:

s12CB of the ASIC Act – engaging in conduct in connection with the supply or possible supply of financial services, which was in all the circumstances unconscionable.

So, what makes the setting of “all the circumstances unconscionable” an economist looks at this in one way and I as a law graduate and IT technician in another way. 

Then we get:
s952E of the Corporations Act – providing defective disclosure documents. As such, what makes the documents “defective disclosure documents”, I do not know and I look at them separately as that is what the law does and when merely one law falters, it all collapses (it matters later on).

Then we get:
s961B of the Corporations Act – failure to act in their client’s best interests, and what is that at the start? Most clients are ‘greed’ driven, they want the highest return and that is ‘their’ best interest. It is a hard lesson to learn that looking back the client gave the wrong advice to the advisor. I myself only work a balanced portfolio, I will never make large leaps but then again I am unlikely to lose a lot either. 

So in that setting we see:
the Court made interim freezing orders over Mr Merhi’s property. These orders remain in place until 12 December 2025 (25-024MR).
ASIC cancelled the AFSL of FSGA, effective 7 June 2025 and permanently banned its responsible manager (25-102MR).
In July 2025, the Court made travel restraint orders against Mr Merhi. Those orders prevent him from leaving or attempting to leave Australia until 12 December 2025, or until further order of the Court (25-024MR).

That is fair enough I reckon. But now we get to the settings that ABC at the top gave. We see there “In all of these cases, no criminal charges have been laid, but ASIC is heading to court to make allegations against the people at the centre of the Shield and First Guardian funds — those involved in managing and promoting the schemes.” The no criminal charges gives pause to consider that no criminal acts have transpired and when we look at some of the allegations the two that take the cake (a Tiramisu cake) is that the settings of “defective disclosure documents” must be proven and the lawyers will fight that. Then we get “all the circumstances unconscionable” and that is the ballgame, ‘unconscionable’ is not per se illegal and it is about the legality of the matter in court and that is the setting we see. So when I made a statement two years ago saying “Some of their risk and liquidity is in US bonds and when the US forfeits payment your 401K and many other things will become worth close to nothing” we see what bonds were worth 5 years ago. There we see “For the year, long-term U.S. Treasuries were by far the best-performing fixed-income investments, with a nearly 17% gain,” (source: Reuters) at present they are “the 10-year yield settled around 4.36%” that represents a loss of 13%, so who pays for that bond? This was a danger I saw 5 years ago (as uneconomical as I am) and 10 years ago I heard people to buy bonds as the interest is like free money and I stopped. There is no free ride and this is almost pushed into the AI field all whilst there is no verification in place. All settings that are interconnected and we now see the ABC giving us “expose deep flaws in Australia’s $4.3 trillion retirement system” so, what do you think you will end up with because as I see it, there is the chance that these people can do what they like all whilst there is no criminal accountability. Yes, he is stopped for now, but Ferras Merhi is about to walk away with more than $19 million in payments. As such he is willing to sweat it out for a few months. It is a lot more (like 79.2581 times more) than I ever made in my lifetime. 

So I see this case that ABC alerted me to with some suspicion. These people live by the setting of walking the edge of legality, there is no risk at that edge and I expect that Ferras Merhi is doing just that not doing anything illegal. As such 12,000 Australians are about to learn that they could lose it all without any illegal actions transpiring and I fault it to two settings (mentioned above) and we all considering setting the clocks to Islam where we see “Islamic banking prohibits the use of interest, speculation, and excessive risk. It emphasizes profit and loss sharing, fairness, honesty, and transparency in financial dealings.” By the way this setting was in place for hundreds of years. 

Have a great day and see that Statista gives us “Robusta, named because it can grow at a wider range of altitudes and temperatures, sold for 1.87 U.S. dollars in 2018, projected to sell at 5 U.S. dollars per kilogram in 2026” did you predict in 2018 that you would be setting your retirement to pay 267% for your coffee?

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Beyond the laughter

Yup, we get that, we scream deriving howl of laughter as the expression goes. For weeks I have been saying the setting was one that was merely expanding and people called me crazy (now, there is a case to be made that I am as crazy as any loon gets), but in this case the setting is different. You see (at https://www.hotelnewsresource.com/article138012.html) we see ‘Abu Dhabi Hotel Industry Achieves Record August Occupancy’ and that is less then 24 hours ago. I stand that Abu Dhabi was on a track to break all tourism records and now I am proven correctly. You see, we are given “Abu Dhabi’s hotel industry recorded its highest occupancy rate for August, reaching 79.3%, according to preliminary data from CoStar. The average daily rate (ADR) increased by 10.6% to AED482.32, while revenue per available room (RevPAR) rose by 15.4% to AED382.25. These figures represent the highest August ADR and RevPAR since 2008.” This shows that Abu Dhabi is on the right track and the numbers will impress others even more and within a year, this is merely seen as average. You see, not only is Abu Dhabi building around Yas Island, Abu Dhabi is gaining global population and even as America should have been countering this with their own options. ABC (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-09/australians-with-us-e3-working-visas-hit-with-new-rules/105752706) is now giving us ‘Thousands of Australians living in US face new restrictions on visa renewals’ and the underlying text becomes “The directive, which took immediate effect after it was issued on the weekend, warns visa-holders against the common practice of traveling to countries closer to the US to renew their visas. Some Australians who had made visa appointments in other countries before the change was announced have already had their applications denied at those appointments.” As I said it, it will evoke howls of deriving laughter. It invokes a brain drain and America wants the ‘Americans first’ rule, but when these Americans don’t have the brain power to set this to a workable solution, These people will seek employment elsewhere and that also impacts tourism, because these people will not go back to America for any vacation any day soon. It opens up stages of profit for plenty of places (including the UAE) who is now showing to be a yummy destination for thousands more. You see, the E-3 Visa is limited to 65,000 per fiscal year plus an additional 20,000 for those who have earned a US masters degree or higher. This implies roughly 80,000 people who are now looking for other options anywhere else and they will seek other than American vacation options. 

A rolling stone that starts an avalanche of economic hardship. I wonder how many of them would consider ADNOC, Etihad Airways or the First Abu Dhabi Bank as a worthy employer? Business Intelligence, IT, teaching people all of them are seeking other options I reckon that this will break up a few marriages and then there is the chance that these marriages will all seek a family setting outside of the USA. It would be my idea for the UAE to start poaching these people on an E-3 Visa. They get to pick the cream of the crop and it might be an idea to do this before corporations in the EU figure out the deal they could be having. There is of course the other place (Dubai) and the people at Emirates NBD, DP World and The Emirates Group could see the impact that they could have poaching E-3 visa people. For them they are looking at a pool of people who have been vetted in many ways already and that could be easy picking for them. Of course this is where the evil sneaky person in me is setting the premise to a Google advertisement on browsers and in LinkedIn applications to get people with an E-3 Visa to offer them a way out. I reckon that they might scoop a little over 25,000 worthy employees in under a month. Not a bad deal for the UAE.

It is with great joy that I bring the people the old expression of the grass is always greener on the other fellows grave, or there are a number of expressions that celebrate the additional blunders that the American administration is making. So as I was shown last week that the tourism drain is set to the $60 Billion (I expected this to go to somewhere in the 80-135 billion range, we now see that aside from that, America is now invoking a brain drain of over 60,000 people.

So, not to kick a dog when it is down, this is all the doing of ints own administration and as the tourism articles are saying that Canada is still happy to avoid America, we see that overall nations in the EU, Asia and Commonwealth are basically all avoiding America. I saw last week that for the first time in history China has a more positive appeal than America has. So there is that too.

As I see it, These people could explore their options at https://u.ae/en/information-and-services/visiting-and-exploring-the-uae

Have a great day and try not to be negative over the dumbness of the America administrations. When one door closes another one opens. 

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Changing tracks

CBC informed me a few hours ago that(at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ttc-alstom-train-deal-1.7609756) that ‘Toronto pursuing sole-sourced deal for new TTC trains in wake of U.S. tariffs’, so this is another fine mess that Trump left America. It might be seen as the cost of doing business, but consider the amount of business that America lost and is still losing against what they made. And you need to see this in additional light of what the department of labor statistics I also giving the American people. I don’t mind. I reckon that Canada could easily get this stuff from Australia or the United Kingdom, as such no biggie for Canada. As such there might be a need to get both involved as it concerns “Officials say deal is for 70 trains to run on Line 2 and for Yonge North, Scarborough extensions”, a setting where both leading to all three profiting on this deal alone. In light of “In a news release issued Friday morning, officials said both the federal and provincial governments, alongside the city, gave the TTC the go-ahead to pursue a single-source contract “in the face of U.S. tariffs and economic uncertainty” in order to support Ontario workers.” So, Canada needs to pick one of them, either will do, yet we also need to see that France is a viable option for Canada. Their subways have been running (not walking, but operating) for more than a century. In 2024 it transported over 1.5 billion passengers. As such Canada seemingly has three options. Of course I am biased as a Commonwealthian and I would prefer to see this deal go to either Australia or the United Kingdom, but it is what Canada needs is what counts and they are telling us that America is no longer a viable option. 

Ands as we are given “Officials say the base procurement is for 70 six-car train sets in total — 55 to replace aging trains on Line 2, and 15 trains for the Yonge North and Scarborough extensions.” I reckon that both Australia and the UK are chomping at the bits to get into this deal. In addition we are given “The Ford government had expressed its desire to see the train cars built in the province amid the ongoing trade war with the U.S. All three levels of government have committed money to buy the new rolling stock, which is expected to cost some $2.3 billion.” As such there is an additional need to get them built in Ontario, but there is the setting. These parts might be ‘built’ in another place and completed (see assembly, adjusted, and painted in Canada) as such there is a larger setting to give the Commonwealth the larger setting. And this approach will give the Commonwealth a setting for other regions. So this does not hurt the approach that is given through ““Our government is proud to protect Ontario from U.S tariffs by ensuring the TTC’s Line 2 subway trains will be made in Ontario, by Ontario workers,” said Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria in a statement. The current, almost 30-year-old trains, as regular commuters will tell you, are nearing the end of their lifespan and are vastly different from the Toronto Rocket trains that service Line 1. ” It doesn’t matter how this plays out, the important setting (for me) is that America is stumped out of a race yet again. And that needs the proper illumination. So how many American jobs would be endangered to this setting? 

It is a virtual little circle in here. We deprive America from getting the jobs and America remains in denial and tells the world that it is doing well. How much longer do they think they can maintain this delusional illusion? 

So whilst Canada is changing tracks we are starting to see the cracks in the delusions that America is trying to show us through film flam artists. So whilst the ‘world’ is wondering whether ABC giving us “The war in Ukraine will continue and Vladimir Putin has outmaneuvered yet another US president.” Whilst news.com.au gives us “Vladimir Putin was treated to a show of US military might when he arrived in Alaska for his high-stakes talks with Donald Trump, with a row of aircraft proudly lined up on display in view of the leaders’ motorcade.” As such, which version do you want to hang onto? So is this a PR masterclass, or should someone ask President Volodymyr Zelensky what is happening to the Ukraine? Did America do right by him, or is Europe seeing another example of what needs to be done? It matters, as the Trump Administration is seemingly abandoning Ukraine, it will be in hands of Europe to make progress and as such The Canadian trains cannot fall in the hands of America. This needs to be in hands of the Commonwealth and the hands of Europe. With the hardship they are about to face, we need to make sure that their wallets gets filled with all kinds of jobs. The trains might be an indicator, but the larger story tends to be “Broke superpowers aren’t anything” and that needs to be said. And when you realize that America is playing a juggling game with Energy requirements, nonexistent AI, manufacturing jobs lost and rare earth requirements and they are juggling so that you can’t see the full picture. That is the job of the film flam operator and as we realise that each of these jobs are time sliced we get to see that we merely get to see that any job gets a mere 25% of the time slice. Are you catching on?

Have a great day today.

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The person everyone wants dead

Yes, these people exist, but it is uncommon and actually quite rare, but the setting of Ghislaine Maxwell warrants that thought. It is not a simple setting. Not only was she convicted, she was convicted to 20 years and several women’s life were squandered to what some call the ‘pedo’ organisation of a lifetime (as expressions go). They were not merely destroyed by man, a woman named Ghislaine Maxwell seemingly ‘prepared’ them for the ‘entertainment’ of certain man. 

And now 4 years later it starts again as she is vying for reduced sentences, optionally overturning her situation. I’ll grant it is balmy, because every father with daughters is willing to shoot her down, they will hunt her across the globe and as she wants to ‘compel’ them to stay their weapons, she is unlikely to succeed. And this is a circus with three rings. The first ring is the list of Epstein and the wealthy ‘suiters’ of these underaged woman. The second ring has President Trump and whatever political aspirations are coning from this scene. And here we see the first (as I personally see it, the first lie) and we get to thank ABC news for that (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-29/trump-has-not-considered-pardoning-epstein-ally-maxwell/105584506) where we see ‘Donald Trump says he has not considered pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell’, you see, the question was asked and in that moment any person would consider the question and as such he would have considered pardoning her. There of course the thought that he would reject that, but that doesn’t matter the question was considered as I personally see it. So as ABC gives us “Maxwell is appealing against her 20-year prison sentence, arguing that a prior plea deal that Jeffrey Epstein took protected her from prosecution.” This is as I see it a null option. For that to be considered Epstein would have had to set that stage, but he (allegedly) committed suicide making the entire stage to go away. It is a personal view and perhaps there was something, but if that is absent of documentation it is null and void. You see, an old setting has been (going all the way back to the Italian army of AD45) “If it isn’t written down, it does not exist” or words (and written down) to that nature. As such this is basically a Marie Celeste in business, in politics and in ethics. Now, I am all for the law and if there is something then show us the documentations, in other settings, such an agreement would have had witnesses, who were they? Where are they? And what was the stage? Because Jeffrey Epstein decided that suicide by hanging was preferable than facing the world and his world is all about presentation and alleged holiness. He took the fast way out, he was sentenced to eighteen months in prison and he was sentenced to (as some sources state) be housed in a private wing of the Palm Beach County Stockade and, according to the sheriff’s office, was, after 3.5 months, allowed to leave the jail on “work release” for up to twelve hours a day, six days a week, but after one month he must have realised what his life was about to become and he took the quick avoidance method.

The third ring is about the list, who was on it, what evidence was there and so on. This ring has its issues and problems. The conspiracy theorists are flaming this in the trend of “Republicans will set the list to democrats, no republicans and President Trump was never on the list” in that setting I have no idea. You see, the setting is that political players all want billionaire people as friends as they can fund campaigns, as such plenty might have ‘known’ Jeffrey Epstein but to what matter remains the question. We all have seen the image of Trump and Epstein. That is however no proof of guilt. Billionaires hang around billionaire, that part makes sense, but that is no evidence that President Trump did anything wrong. I go one step further, as I speculatively see it, no farther of daughters will use a minor girl for sex. The only possible setting is that these men also sexually abuse their own daughters. It is speculation but that is what I think and if there is a decent psychologist that states that this is not the case, I will accept that. As I say it is speculation. I still have a problem imagining that any woman will serve up female minors for sex duty. 

So as we see this we get to the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/28/ghislaine-maxwell-supreme-court) who gives us ‘Maxwell, sentenced to 20 years for sex trafficking, says 2007 plea deal negotiated by Epstein should have protected her’ and my issue is also (I already answered this at the beginning) that she ‘waited’ over 2 years to set the stage. Was she hoping the case had gone cold? As we are given “Her legal team, however, submitted a request to the supreme court on Monday, seeking to overturn the lower court’s decision, arguing that a prior plea deal that Epstein took protected Maxwell from prosecution.” The skeptic in me is thinking that they have a juicy paycheck coming their way and whilst Ghislaine Maxwell is paying, they will continue any branch they can get. In the end it becomes a setting of coin and a setting of ego. More coin as it is a paying setting, less ego as it is about overturning a conviction with witnesses and that is a lot to un-stage. So as we are given “The controversial 2007 plea agreement between Epstein and the justice department said that if Epstein followed the terms of the plea agreement, the US government would not charge “any potential co-conspirators of Epstein”, including “but not limited to” four co-conspirators. Maxwell is not one of the four co-conspirators named in the agreement, but her attorneys say she did not need to be named to receive the protection from that deal.” I have an issue with that (with my limited law knowledge). As such shouldn’t the four coconspirators be named? Who are these four? As I see it, an exact number requires identities? No, here the attorney of Ghislaine Maxwell is correct, it is seen in “any potential co-conspirators of Epstein”. The issue is, how was this ‘overlooked’? The referred document is seen (at https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6184602-Jeffrey-Epstein-non-prosecution-agreement/) and on page 2 and 3 gives us the setting. We are given:

This is what we are given as Exhibit 62. What I believe the case is that as given “Epstein willfully violated any of the conditions of this Agreement” making the setting null and void. As such all coconspirators could be prosecuted and that is as I see it the setting. So when we see 

But he never did the second term, he never made it past the first term as such the setting becomes a nulled one and he basically hung all ‘his friends’ out to dry, wasn’t that great of him? As I have legal training (a decade ago), this is what I see. Perhaps there are American ‘rules’ that state that the agreement is till valid, but that agreement would be hung (I couldn’t resist that) on the setting that he completed his sentence and he did not.

I reckon that this was seen 5 minutes after this was agreed upon and it is my personal view that lawyers will cash in on any option they can and as Ghislaine Maxwell cannot spend her money in prison and most likely will not survive her time in prison (she is 63 after all) there might be an alternative setting for the lawyers in question (a presumption, as there is every chance that they were instructed by their client Ghislaine Maxwell to pursue any option they can) and they are doing their job as instructed.

As such I think this goes nowhere and perhaps there will be leniency if she hands over the list, but that is might be a big if, and that should strike fear in the hearts (and loins) of anyone making that list. As such I reckon that a certain Silk Road marker place will have more than one items for the execution of Ghislaine Maxwell with the reward at ₿1000 (or $119,000,000) that is the setting she is invoking, even if she gives false names, her days are numbered. These people don’t like taking chances and she is likely happy to go that road for one free day, one last meal and one drink. This is mere speculation but that is how I see it and as I stated it, every father of daughters likely wants her dead, they are all about keeping their daughters safe. It might not sound reasonable, but fathers tend to be not so solid and sturdy when their little girls are in danger.

Have a great day

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Stupid people

Yup, that is what we are surrounded with. So lets get to it showing WHY I think that the bulk of these people are stupid. Because there needs to be a reason, doesn’t there?

So before I start with the article, let us get a little refreshment. I have taken a stand as early as 2014, and this article I wrote on October 13th 2017 called ‘Strike a match’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/10/13/strike-a-match/) gives us: 

This doesn’t make you stupid, but the larger setting that we see in the newspapers and in this case ABC News who (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-23/jeffrey-bezos-lavish-wedding-in-venice-why-people-are-protesting/105445512) gives us ‘Jeff Bezos is getting married in Venice. Here’s why people are protesting the wedding’ where we see that “One group has plastered banners on the Italian city’s famous Rialto bridge reading “No space for Bezos!”” I think it is utterly BS that anyone would disrupts another man’s wedding (the wife’s anyway), We might take the setting of that is in their hearts, which is “Activists are protesting billionaire Jeff Bezos’s wedding in Venice with calls for a global billionaire tax.” That is what makes them utterly stupid and the amount of stupid people are not to be underestimated. You see the media is fueling that and they go about it like “You need to have your say” even though it will never matter as that is what they are about. Appeasing the shareholders and stakeholders who are AGAINST fair taxation and taxing these billionaires is just not fair. You see, governments (America, EU and Commonwealth) are all about the ‘best’ deal and taxing that is against the need of these long time politicians. So they give you a ‘tax the rich’ stage which would never work and I have been saying this for the better part of a decade and now it is too late the shouting increases and that is where things go from bad to worse. Because the media is not properly enforcing you, keeping these shouters stupid. Because the media relies on these corporations for advertising and when they pay taxation, there is not enough money for advertising. 

People like Jef Bezos, Sergey Brin and Lawrence Ellison are billionaires as they implement tax laws to the letter. And that setting is where it is at. Governments have need to overhaul taxation for decades, basically sing President Clinton was in office and he left office in 2001. Even then the overhaul was essential. As such for over 15 years to stakeholders have benefited from the setting and as such the corporations too. Did no one ever considered that the dice were stacked against you when Microsoft and Apple became (multi) trillion dollar companies? 

We need the media to push for tax overhaul and they won’t because a shouting and cursing mass of people bring in more digital dollars and the flames is what they live off and as such you will never be correctly informed. And it is not merely America, it is a near global setting that hits the Commonwealth, The nations in the EU and Europe as well. And the lager fear is that if one does it, their business walks to another country and that is the setting that Ireland has used to it advantage. Unless there is proper taxation nothing will change and all of us will end up with nothing. As an example I give to you Netflix, who paid just $868,000 in tax in Australia in 2021, so as their profit went up by 49% from the previous year, their tax bill went up from from $554,000 to $868,000. Even though they have millions of subscriptions in Australia. We merely get “Australian Netflix users are billed by the company’s Netherlands-based entity. A Netflix spokesperson said: “We have filed our financial statements as required.”

The issue is the tax bill that governments allow for. Consider that Australian subscriber are ‘collected’ by a Dutch company on the other side of the freaking planet. So take a sip of air considering that the governments set out this tax avoidance setting (avoidance is not illegal, evasion is) and that is a setting that is done all over the planet. As such the BS of tax the rich needs to stop. These shouters need to put the limelight on the lawmakers. They needed to do this for well over a decade. 

As such pushing someone’s wedding in the nasty hatred lights is totally unacceptable. If Mr. Bezos can afford to give his new bride the dreamiest of all weddings and the mayor of Venice approves this, then why not? I would never consider this, but I never had access to 220 billion and even if I had this is not how I would spend it, but that is me. Born a miser and never rose above the wealth of a church mouse. I am in the same sloop that some others are and I know better then to shout at a meaningless futile cause. And the weird part is that when it all goes south, these people will still be shouting at the wealthy, all whilst the politicians have filled their pockets and have considered moving to a tax zero nation, living it up until the bulk of the people are dead 15 years later. For them it will be a problem solved setting.

So, consider who you need to look at. Not the wealthy, but the lawmakers who appeased the corporations and the people who got rich from them.

Time for me to consider a new weapon system. With Israel and Iran striking blows, there will be a small time gap when people will consider my stealth system to keep Iranian harbours empty and I think I can create more IP to give their armies a hard time too. I need to put my thinking cap on.

Have a great day.

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Wars according to the TWT principle

Yes, that is the setting and as we are all seeing that the wars are mentally decided to President Trump according to his setting of two weeks. You see, there is no doubt, there is no hesitation. The setting is that Trump seemingly doesn’t have the balls to go against the wishes of President Putin. Even the ABC is giving us ‘Donald Trump has delayed making a decision on attacking Iran. What’s his strategy?’ And there is a nice benefit in it for me. You see, I showed DARPA whose boss (my very own delusion). I created a submarine stealth system to hinder (read: stop) Iranian ships traffic (and make their harbours inaccessible in the process) it also would cripple their naval settings. Then the FDD gave us in 2024 “The governor of an area in Yemen has “revealed” how Iranian weapons arrive by sea to the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, UAE-based Al Ain news site reported. This is important because the Gulf Cooperation Council has been discussing the Houthi threat to shipping and Gulf-Yemen ties in recent days. The Houthis have also increased their attacks on shipping. According to the report, ships enter Houthi-controlled ports in Yemen without inspection. There are “renewed talk about the flow of Iranian weapons to the port of Hodeidah,” the report said, adding that the legitimate government of Yemen, and not the Houthi rebels, has confirmed and monitored the “movement of Iranian ships directly from the port of Bandar Abbas to the port of Hodeidah recently, while the British government documented the entry of 500 ships over the past 8 months, and for the first time since 2016, into ports controlled by the Houthis without being subject to the UN inspection mechanism.”” I created the weapon a few months after I heard that Houthi forces attacked civilian targets against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. At that point I decided to design the idea I had and I left a little hint like a fish as a hint, but apparently DARPA was evidently taken “like a stunned mullet” because nothing came of it and handing the idea over to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was an idea but they have no idea who I am (unlike DARPA and the DIA) as such it went nowhere, so I placed it online. Then as time progressed and Iran is seemingly becoming a nuclear danger I gave it another shot and I created a nuclear solution (an untested one) and it was a larger setting that their nuclear reactors would melt down, which had a few additional options. But that idea was floated on my blog in ‘Keeping my promise, part 1’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/12/14/keeping-my-promise-part-1/), I even created IP to hide the attack creating IP that could be civilian used. The idea was not a nuclear bomb, but to make the reactor meltdown giving a nice solution making the hundreds of millions be seen as a lousy investment for Iran. There were a few other upsides as my setting was not to explode but to make the reactor literally useless for the better part of a century and the upside here was that as it was Russian designed, there would be every option that it could be used against Russian reactors as well. The benefits of a larger consideration, which now in light of Russia might not have been a bad idea as 2-3 reactors melting down would Russia require all its oil to keep people warm. 

So in this light consider the strategic thinking of Two Week Trump and the golden coin of the cake is that America has had decades to seek solutions against Iran. Iran has been at this for a long time, so any administration seeking two weeks should not be in power, no matter what the blonde spokesperson of this administration states. The Pentagon should have been ready, right from the start. And Russia seeking other solutions is not the concern of America. Russia is halted by the 20th largest army in the world. So what is America afraid of? I get it, it is not an easy decision, but Iran and Russia have been at this for years, so calling their bluff of either pressing a little red button is a little overthought.

As such, America stood to gain three deeper connections with allies. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as the attack on Houthis was extremely likely to stop. When you cannot be handed weapons, you cannot attack, Israel as it loses the nuclear fear they seek and Europe as Iran is no longer a real concern. But what do we hear? A simple ‘Trump denies approving Iran attack plan but will make decision ‘within two weeks’’ and in the years preceding his indecision I created two weaponized solutions. And I am not stating that they will work, there is every chance that DARPA will have to recreates a few nuts and bolts, but the working solution was there and with a stealth solution in place, there is not finger pointing. That requires factual evidence and it has the benefit of Russia standing in stance at the stop at the nearly ready because even as it is less effective in the way Russian harbours have been designed, the optional seafare of goods would be removed from the table, so as I said all benefits. So what gives? Why the two weeks when an engineer designed a solution years ago? I will let you brood on that and ask yourself. When America has these bunker busters, as it is showing to have such a strong benefit of technology, in light of the terror fundings it has done through Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi terrorist forces. What gives for the delays we see? We have been presented more than once that America with its Pentagon could make global decisions in under an hour. Sp what gives, did they become chicken? I hesitate there, as calling Marines chicken tends to be not the greatest idea on anyones mind. But you tell me, why the delay? The only thing that could make sense is that America is a lot more broke than anyone is willing to admit to and I get that, but the fact that America is now hinging on the shear hairs of any dog is weird, because the media has been in denial of that for far too long. So what is the truth?

The media cannot be trusted to give it to us because the filters stop them, the stakeholder filter is the most worrisome. I see it (after I saw the Politico article last year) as the largest problem. You see, several Americans are making a lot of money as they process Iranian oil. You see, processed oil is free from ‘sanctioned oil’ issues and we see how much oil is ‘sold’ but the processed oil is clear from those restrictions, as such someone is making a lot of money here. And these stakeholders get near unlimited finding to censor what needs to be censored. Is this a real case for America? I reckon it is and the two weeks trump setting might be the implied stage we are not seeing clearly as the media is muzzled on that setting. 

So we are in a pickle. When greed driven persons get to decide what we are allowed to know, the world seemingly turns to shit. Am I right? Am I wrong? You decide, but the stories (read: articles) as I saw it have been out in the open even the Russian oil setting in ‘Are we being lied to?’ Consider that this was ‘ready’ for Russia in January 2025. This would never have flown if it wasn’t ready for Iran years before this. That story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/13/are-we-being-lied-to/) might have been news 6 months, but that larger setting was used in more than one way for years as I personally see it. How much media had been talking about ‘expensive sanctions’ all whilst there was a loophole and it wouldn’t have made sense in that setting, unless it was placed for the benefit of Iran. So how many people gave us the shallow goods that the industrials were hiding behind? Consider that setting, would you play the shallow bitch for $1,000,000 plus per day? I definitely would, especially considering the prices at McDonald rising the way they seem to be.

Have a great day. I am running off to get a nice cappuccino.

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When the setting fits

That is at times the thoughts we have. Now, let me be clear. This is pure speculation. It is speculation because I am not in politics (not even the shady kind) and as such it cannot be presumption. There is no best educated guess, there is merely a best guess and the setting fits several thoughts I have had in the past. It all seemingly fits. It doesn’t make it more true or more reliable. 

That is something you need to keep in mind from the start and this was all set in motion through Reuters, who gave me in the first instance (at https://www.reuters.com/business/apple-pay-25-tariff-if-phones-not-made-us-trump-says-2025-05-23/) with ‘Trump threatens new tariffs on European Union and Apple, reigniting trade fears’ and here we see “U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on Friday to ratchet up his trade war again, pushing for a 50% tariff on European Union goods starting June 1 and warning Apple he may slap a 25% levy on all imported iPhones bought by U.S. consumers. The twin threats, delivered via social media, roiled global markets after weeks of de-escalation had provided some reprieve in the tariff battle. Major U.S. stock indexes and European shares fell and the dollar weakened, while the price of gold, a safe-haven for investors, rose. U.S. Treasury yields fell on fears about tariffs’ effect on economic growth.” A few thoughts came to mind. In the first “The twin threats, delivered via social media”, as such why not in an official setting? Why via social media? Is it because the threats might get rolled back? Is it because of non-repudiation? Then we get the Apple setting, why in America? Why is this so essential? (I will get back to this later on). And a few other thoughts are to mind. Then the article ends with “The president’s attack on Apple is his latest attempt to pressure a specific company to move production to the United States, following automakers, pharmaceutical companies and chipmakers. The United States, however, does not mass-produce smartphones – even as U.S. consumers buy more than 60 million phones annually – and moving production would likely increase the cost of iPhones by hundreds of dollars” keep this latest quote on the forefront of your mind for now.

Then Reuters gives us (at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-justice-department-reaches-deal-with-boeing-allow-planemaker-avoid-2025-05-23/) ‘US Justice Department reaches deal with Boeing to allow planemaker to avoid prosecution’ the two are actually more connected than you would think. Even as we are given “The agreement allows Boeing to avoid being branded a convicted felon and was harshly criticized by many families who lost relatives in the crashes and had pressed prosecutors to take the U.S. planemaker to trial. A lawyer for family members and two U.S. senators had urged the Justice Department not to abandon its prosecution, but the government quickly rejected the requests.

Then last we get yet again from Reuters (at https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-seeks-fast-track-new-nuclear-licenses-overhaul-regulatory-agency-2025-05-23/) ‘Trump seeks to fast-track new nuclear licenses, overhaul regulatory agency’ with the subtext “U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday ordered the nation’s independent nuclear regulatory commission to cut down on regulations and fast-track new licenses for reactors and power plants, seeking to shrink a multi-year process down to 18 months.” All this sets a premise of revenue. Boeing, the reactors and last (which I gave first) was the tariffs. America is desperate for revenue and I reckon the setting of the Microsoft linked firm going bust after being evaluated for a billion dollars didn’t help his need. He needs all revenue to come from America and all made there. It isn’t merely America First, it is the speculated setting that America is about to default on its loans. Well that Is how I see it and I might be wrong. The entire setting with the added setting of Greenland and Canada is that he cannot claim that America has plenty of resources making it a lot more wealthy, for that he needed Greenland and Canada. No, now he needs to move it all to America and that is where the problem starts. Because America wasn’t ready for that move, but that is as the America administration sees it, the problem on (and for) Apple. As I see it, this is a speculated final move before the American President has to admit that payment deals need to be made and they want to push it back as far as they can as the number one fear is that others will massively dump their US Bonds and that would instantly call for the near complete dismemberment of the United States of Bankruptcy. 

Could I be wrong?
Yes, I can be wrong. But this image seems to fit the partial shorts we have been able to see. The second option is that President Trump has completely lost it, but I do not think so. Too many settings don’t fit that view of him. Yet the knee-jerk reactions to keep on being seen as an “able to make payments nation” seems to fit the bill more. I reckon that the news last week regarding that Builder.AI is now commencing insolvency proceedings was perhaps the drip that broke the camels back as the expression goes. It is before Saudi Arabia and others would be pumping money into the United States, so there is that to come as well. As they say money must flow and the actions done (especially regarding Boeing) is all about revenue, not about the family of victims. Then we loop back to January when President Trump announced ‘Trump announces a $500 billion AI infrastructure investment in the US’ here I speculate that this was all about some Microsoft setting, at least in part and now that Builder.AI has become insolvent and it was backed by Microsoft gives rise to the 500 billion being set on shaky grounds. It’s like looking at the Chrysler building seemingly coming closer to view until you realise that it was build on a quicksand. And they figure this out after the building was complete and now the top of that building is making the rest sink into the marsh. As I see it (which is presumption in this case), is as AI doesn’t exist, that they had made clever moves with DML (Deeper Machine Learning) and LLM (Large Language Models) and that requires programmers and some extended programming, but the deeper you set your teeth into the pie, the harder it is to open your mouth without coughing up the pie. And the bad decisions made with Builder.AI (I do not know what they did wrong, but that is what some media gives us, you can read that in yesterdays story).

When this goes wrong with 1 billion, what do you think that 500 billion gets you? There are only so many programmers who are adept in this form of programming and that is before all the data is validated, which if it fails makes for a totally new timeline and that is the crux of this setting. 

But feel free to ignore these settings and see what happens. That I what I think is happening. Microsoft fell short and others might not be in the market for such a failure and when the 500 billion stays away foreclosure of the land of the forsaken and the home of the arrogant falls flat. 

Here in all this I might be wrong, I admit that upfront. The question that comes to mind. What is it? Why do we get such a knee-jerk operation from left to right and from beginning to end. Now we get the news that is 15 hours old. ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) gives us ‘Reserve Bank on high alert for economic fallout as Donald Trump continues to spook investors’ If I am correct than this act is merely for the ones that holds these bonds will keep on holding on to them. And the second setting is “The bond market is now regularly questioning the value and stability of US government debt.” As I see it, the nightmare scenario for President Trump. He cannot pay anything over 10% of 36 trillion. When that happens America defaults on its loans. The nightmare that Wall Street fears. As we are given “In the lead-up to the passage of the bill through the US House of Representatives, the US Treasury Department tried to secure $16 billion of funding through the sale of 20-year bonds. It found the auction harder than usual to execute due to a lack of demand from investors.” And as I see it, making the other funds ‘more’ dodgy will work for the American administration and as such are the actions that I am seeing. Not because they are great actions. It is bullying not to go somewhere else and I admit that this is merely speculation. 

I leave it up to you do decide if I am right or if I have a case for my train of thought. But this is what I see, merely because I have been looking in this direction all along. And Moody’s downgrade, US debt had become riskier for the lender. That is a simple conclusion you can all consider to get behind. But if that is the case, the outstanding bonds are a bad bet because these bonds do not get reassessed, that is the bad bet they went into and the next step we get is when Moody’s set the credit from AA1 to AA2. But what happens after? I don’t think that the holders of these bonds will wait that long. They will sell wit a loss as not to see there bonds become ‘Junk’ material and those people will lose a hell of a lot of money. Consider Japan as it is with the debts they have also have around $1.13 trillion in US bonds and China holds $784 billion. If China dumps their US bonds, Japan will be force to do the same as not to lose too much money, but the  investors were already shy of the last auction and that was only for $16,000,000,000. Now we see that there is a risk that China sets 50 times that amount up for auction as such Japan is seeing the pressure to act before it is too late as it has almost twice the amount of China and the first of these two might get some money back. The one that flinches losses it nearly all. 

How would you see such a risk? And that with the Reuters articles made me speculatively realise that America is in a lot oof hot water at present, but my view is speculative. I have no hard data to back my thoughts, be aware of that. By the way, there is a second reason for the reactors, but I’ll let you work that one out for yourselves.

Have a somewhat great day.

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