Tag Archives: America

February 1, 2025 · 19:19

War of trades

That is what we are facing now (not to be confused with World of Warcraft). Canada is now under the yoke of President Trump and we (all Commonwealth nations) have to unite. It is nice to call that president loopy or crazy, but the hardship is not like that. As I personally see it, it is the first step of a nations that has no options against calling themself broke and the media is as I see it, too stupid to call it out (too used to be the bitch of America is more like it). So what can we do?

First things first. “In 2022, Australia imported $6.45 billion in crude petroleum” part of that sum came from the United States, I cannot tell what part. As such we stop that and we get it from Canada. That takes away the tariff from Canada on that. We see that America went ‘soft’ on that according to the news. Why? They need to, they need oil. Oil they can sell at additional coins. So that stops. As such “The UK imported around 42 million metric tons of crude oil and natural gas liquids in 2023” this was also in part from the United States, so they get it from Canada as well. That implies that Canada is not suffering tariffs on oil. See, that took little time. We set the same to India who exports oil to the United States. Set that to Europe (to a much larger degree) and all its Commonwealth allies and America suddenly gets a much larger problem. Well they can import it from Venezuela and Russia I reckon. So, how is that going now President Trump?

Then we get a lot more. For our local needs Australia could become the location for Rum (Bundaberg) and it could be exported to Canada, there goes the American Rum export to Canada. The fun part is that Canada could get its import from Australia and the United Kingdom as well and soon Budweiser is losing its export locations. In other news, Labatt Brewing Company and Molson Coors Canada Inc. would now be the locations of Australian beets. As that setting changes America now has a problem they themselves created. And with the quality of water in America, these brands end up having an honest problem selling their beer anywhere. 

These are of course the some settings. What happens when they cannot get nursing staff, because Canada sets the horn of plenty towards the Commonwealth countries and we cannot send them to America as the Commonwealth have had our fill with their tariffs? What happens when we merely set out to ourselves? You think nurses are easy to come by? What happens when a chunk of IT staff in Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle and IBM gets called back to Commonwealth nations? How will you solve the knowledge base then? These places also exist in Canada, Australia and New Zealand. As such there will be a redesign of staff pressures. And that will (accidentally) coincide with staff requirements in the Middle East (UAE and Saudi Arabia) two places the US can not deliver to as they then sorely lack the staff on such levels. What a tangled web they weaved.

Meat from US in Canada will be replaced to meat from New Zealand, UK, Australia and Mexico (they got the tariff book as well), that implies more from other nations and none from America. Was that what they had figured on? So as American revenue declines and meat will required a downgrade as they suffer exports. So, USMEF has 19 offices and regional representatives in key markets around the world. And soon that will get a massive drop on revenue. Al because they wanted to test their bankruptcy measures on other fields like tariffs. So how much more needs to happen? Meat, Booze, oil and staffing. All going other ways soon enough. How will that leave the America economy? And I reckon Wood does not need to come from America, it does now, we can import from Canada too, as such Canada will need less tariffs to worry about. So who chained the links together? What started as as separate issues now becomes a formidable chain that whacks America over the head as we solve matters internally and for a few issues we could partner with Mexico. All separate issues that were ignored as they were to some too small to consider, but this chain represents billions in goods and millions if trade shipping now about to leave America hands.

Trade wars have a nasty habit of biting bak when the numbers are not in your favor. Canada does not stand alone, the Commonwealth can support it as it should. I do fear for weak links (like Keir Starmer and Anthony Albanese) as they want to appease America. Those days are over and now America has another issue coming its way. It was ‘protected’ by an ocean from China, but in this setting China would get invitations as Australia and Canada would entertain trade talks with China. So how is America sitting now? Oh, and in that setting there is a new setting to Five Eyes, 4 of its members have had enough of President Trump and its loopy vision (possible he needs glasses). And in one instance the CIA loses whatever handle it had on international businesses. Yes, that was a real bright idea. We might lose Palantir as a partner (which is fair enough) yet if you think that China doesn’t have options there, you would be really delusional in your thinking. I reckon that these tariff wars were the Christmas present for China almost a year early. 

All that coming now?
And I saw part of this in under an hour. So how did this escape the American views? A tariff war was the worst setting they could enable. So why did this president not get the Intelligence he needed? 

I reckon there is a lot more and we need to stand firm with our brother Canada. We are the Commonwealth, not a play-toy (or the bitch) of America. We have a population exceeding billions, we eat, we drink and we are merry (at times loopy too). And 2.5 billion represents massive amounts of power, more than the 350 million in America can bring so when that retail power falls away a lot more American businesses will suffer in the process.

Just a little lesson for the reader and consider who you wake up. America is about to learn that the hard way and China likes the setting it is about to exposed to. An Ally that does this to Canada is no ally at all and there are massive consequences with ringing the tariff bell.

Have a great day.

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January 29, 2025 · 01:44

And the bubble said ‘Bang’

This is what we usually see, or at times hear as well. Now I am not an AI expert, not even a journeyman in the ways of AI, But the father of AI namely Alan Turing stated the setting of AI. He was that good as he set the foundation of AI in the 50’s, half a century before we were able to get a handle on this. Oh, and in case you forget what he looks like, he has been immortalised on the £50 note.

And as such I feel certain that there is no AI (at present) and now this bubble comes banging on the doors of big-tech as they just lost a trillion dollars in market value. Are you interested in seeing what that looks like? Well see below and scratch the back of your heads.

We start with Business Insider (at https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tech-stock-sell-off-deepseek-ai-chatgpt-china-nvidia-chips-2025-1) where we are given ‘DeepSeek tech wipeout erases more than $1 trillion in market cap as AI panic grips Wall Street’ and I find it slightly hilarious as we see “AI panic”, you see, bubbles have that effect on markets. This takes me back to 2012 when the Australian Telstra had no recourse at that point to let the waves of 4G work for them (they had 3.5G at best) so what did they do? They called the product 4G, problem solved. I think they took some damage over time, but they prevented others taking the lead as they were lagging to some extent. Here in this case we are given “US stocks plummeted on Monday as traders fled the tech sector and erased more than $1 trillion in market cap amid panic over a new artificial intelligence app from a Chinese startup.” Now let me be clear, there is no AI. Not in America and not in China. What both do have is Deeper Machine Learning and LLM’s and these parts would in the end be part of a real AI. Just not the primary part (see my earlier works). Why has happened (me being speculative) is that China had an innovative idea of Deeper Machine Learning and package this innovatively with LLM modules so that the end result would be a much more efficient system. The Economic Times (at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/worlds-richest-people-lose-108-billion-after-deepseek-selloff/articleshow/117615451.cms) gives us ‘World’s richest people lose $108 billion after DeepSeek selloff’ what is more prudent is “DeepSeek’s dark-horse entry into the AI race, which it says cost just $5.6 million to develop, is a challenge to Silicon Valley’s narrative that massive capital spending is essential to developing the strongest models.” So all these ‘vendors’ and especially President Trump who stated “Emergence of cheaper Chinese rival has wiped $1tn off the value of leading US tech companies” (source: the Guardian). And with the Stargate investment on the mark for about 500 billion dollars it comes as a lightning strike. I wonder what the world makes of this. In all honesty I do not know what to believe and the setting of DeepSeek the game will change. In the first there are dozens of programers who need to figure out how the cost cutting was possible. Then there is the setting of what DeepSeek can actually do and here is the kicker. DeepSeek is free as such there will be a lot of people digging into that. What I wonder is what data is being collected by Chinese artificial intelligence company Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Co., Ltd. It would be my take on the matter. When something is too cheap to be true, you better believe that there is a snag on the road making you look precisely in the wrong direction. I admit it is the cynic in me speaking, but the stage that they made a solution for 6 million (not Lee Majors) against ChatGPT coming at 100 million, the difference is just too big and I don’t like the difference. I know I might be all wrong here, but that is the initial intake I take in the matter. 

If it all works out there is a massive change in the so called AI field. A Chinese party basically sunk the American opposition. In other news, there is possibly reason to giggle here. You see, Microsoft Invested Nearly $14 Billion In OpenAI and that was merely months ago and now we see that  someone else did it at 43% of the investment and after all the hassles they had (Xbox) they shouldn’t be spending recklessly I get it, they merely all had that price picture and now we see another Chinese firm playing the super innovator. It is making me giggle. In opposition to this, we see all kind of player (Google, IBM, Meta, Oracle, Palantir) playing a similar game of what some call AI and they have set the bar really high, as such I wonder how they will continue the game if it turns out that DeepSeek really is the ‘bomb’ of Deeper Machine Learning. I reckon there will be a few interesting weeks coming up. 

Have fun, I need to lie still for 6 hours until breakfast (my life sucks).

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January 27, 2025 · 04:22

A call to arms

That is what is in me. Calling you all up to arms. The first issue is Donald Trump, the president of Unites States of bankruptcy. And we see this possibly quite clearly. The first part is (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/buy-canadian-tariff-threat-implications-1.7439117) where we see ‘Why ‘buying Canadian’ isn’t as easy as it sounds’ And we are given “Can shrewd shopping truly help Canada push back on economic threats from the United States? If you believe the rhetoric from some political leaders, every little bit helps — especially if consumers pay closer attention to labels.” I believe we need to do more, we the people of the commonwealth must unite, Canada is our larger brother and the United States of Bankruptcy have no business making claim to it as the 51st state. There is no opportunity as that weasel Kevin O’Leary states. America has to fine ways to raise its economic awareness of go under. And the oil and forests of Canada are not the way. As a commonwealth Australia, India, Jamaica, New Zealand, United Kingdom and the other 8 nations have a duty, yes duty I say to if whenever possible to buy Canadian. As such all American maple syrups go from the shelves right now and are replaced with the real Canadian version. 

Wood and other stuff needs to be bought from Canadian dealers only. It might not be enough, yet tell me honestly when Trump attacks us, should we not respond? If he attacks one of us all with tariffs and we, all 15 replace American goods whenever possible with Canadian, adding to that notion by switching oil by Canada ($11.8B), United Kingdom ($11.4B), and India ($10.8B) from America to Canada, it will hurt America at least 33 billion right there, the other Commonwealth nations might not be the largest customers, but every little bit helps. Oh, and if we all stop American import oil, America can stop crying like a bitch to make oil cheaper from Saudi Arabia, they can now provide for their own oil. 

It might not be enough, but if the dent is great enough, America will think twice with their ambition to annex Canada into America. So as we see “Make sure we send a message to big retailers. Costco, Sobeys, Walmart, Metro and Loblaws. Buy Canadian products.” Our Commonwealth nations could add Coles, Woolworths, Aldi, Co-op, Sainsbury’s and a few others to that list. And this would also benefit the UK. So how much of a dent is needed for America to realize that pissing of the ally they once had was a really bad idea? The second article (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-premiers-buy-canadian-trade-war-1.7438587) also gives us in ‘Trudeau, premiers urge shoppers to buy Canadian as country prepares for a trade war’ “As a possible trade war with the U.S. looms, Trudeau and the premiers are now furiously trying to dismantle long-standing internal barriers to make it easier to trade goods and move workers across provincial borders.” And in that case, their brothers and sisters in the Commonwealth should also be heeding the call they face. 

And do not relent, let America face the hardcore upgrade to financial pains by removing massive parts of their income. It is the least we can do. Must of us could get the oil needed from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This could open additional markets for both sides. As such there could be a call to add Aramco and ADNOC fueled gas stations. My temporary issue is that we see “Our refinery at Lytton (ample) uses crude oil largely sourced from Australia, New Zealand, south-east Asia, Africa, and North America.” As such North America should be rescinded from that list and replaced with oil from Canada, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Ampol has over 1900 locations in Australia and 262 in New Zealand, time to upgrade that list of places. As I said it might not be enough, but in hardship the Commonwealth has such together and our big brother needs out help now. We all should unite and let the baboonish call to make the 51st state a thing of the past. We see that America is also making the call to invest 500 billion into AI and that might be (might is the operative word) the final straw for their collapsing economy. You see there is only one definition of AI and it was handed to us by Alan Turing. Based on his paper 1950 paper ‘Computing Machinery and Intelligence’ (see https://www.turing.org.uk/scrapbook/test.html) 

turingDownload

(source: University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC))

As I see it, what we have now is an exploding predictive analytics model set so verbose that it never learns, it merely sets all the combinations of the set in data. It was a decent solution in 1986 when it was Chessmaster 2000 brought by The Software Toolworks and later after passing several hands until 2009 it was in the hands of Ubisoft. The Chessmaster 9000 was said to have an ELO of 2718. Data formats had evolved, but the larger setting was that the system never really evolved and in 1986 our concepts of data were different. Like some rainbow tables approach to the presentation of data we grew more attuned to the situation, but it still isn’t AI. A predictive analytical model using deeper machine learning and LLM model is of course much better, but it just isn’t AI and the elements requiring AI are not in existence yet. We now know what it should look like and a Dutch Physicist has now proven and shown the Epsilon particle to exist, but it isn’t here yet. For that matter until that evolves into a trinary system we are out of luck and President Trump puts 500 billion in this? This will always go sideways in the direction no revenue will come from and at some points the banks will want to see their revenue. A simple setting that is coming the way of America with no recourse. So yes, I am calling to arms to protect Canada, our Commonwealth brother. 

So why the AI part?
If America is to be set to their decisions, then the folly they employ is also a measurement and a hindrance to success. I do not oppose the effort, but in this ago that a solution is ‘presented’ as the holy grail and the future financial solution, the fact that it will never work at present is also the hindrance for the presented result. I don’t care that Microsoft is plunging billions in this and whilst securing 3.5 million carbon credits. The bigger setting is a joke (as I personally see this) like toddlers playing Texas Hold’em poker. With the pot merely increasing and when you realize that this could cost you the hand and in the case of America their nation. In this I believe it is essential to stand by Canada. We see all these companies vesting their chances and the effort is good, but the risk is theirs at present and now President Trump is making the country the presented bet of a folly hand. And it matters and no one is considering that too much will be lost, not even the media.

The media is not looking (or too little) at the dangers of data poisoning and malicious use of the data train in development. These two settings involve people and there is a near complete lack of verification of data and that could cost us all in time. So whilst America is willing to hedge its bet by presenting a solution that cannot yet exist (or in the near future) we can leave them to their sorry state and hand protection to our brother Canada to keep it secure and out of American hands. As such I call to arms.

Try to have a great day.

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January 13, 2025 · 13:12

Are we being lied to?

You see, we might all cheer at the sight of ‘US and UK toughen sanctions on Russian oil industry’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn8xlj9kkkmo) and it would have been swallowed by a lot of people, if it weren’t for the fact that I gave light to the story of Politico in ‘Is it merely political?’ On October 6th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/10/06/is-it-merely-political/) where Politico (at https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-war-economy-pain-saudi-arabia-sink-global-oil-prices-energy-russia-opec/) introduced us to loopholes. This story is less than 3 months old. And guess what, there is no mention of of loopholes in that story, as such we can assume that they haven’t been dealt with. And the setting of ““Taking on Russian oil companies will drain Russia’s war chest – and every ruble we take from Putin’s hands helps save Ukrainian lives,” said Foreign Secretary David Lammy.” Is as I see it ‘a load of bollocks’. We see the mention of “the UK will join the US in directly sanctioning energy companies Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas” but the setting that we have known of for about 3 months, where Politico gives us “A loophole allows middlemen in countries like Turkey, China and India to refine Russian oil in petrol and diesel before selling it elsewhere — exempt from sanctions. According to a report first seen by POLITICO” as such we can ask America and the United Kingdom, so what about the loophole? The fact that it wasn’t mentioned is likely because it was never dealt with. So the one BBC page is as useless as a Watt meter in a wind farm. 

And when we consider that Turkey and India were not ‘tempered’ in processing Russian oil, was it therefor not done, or was it met with too strong opposition? The fact that Jake Lapham did not pursue this little detour makes for a lot more issues than you and me can fathom at the moment. So was this article any thing more than a waste of space?

I will let you decide, but take into account that the loophole was ‘shunned’ for the longest of time by the media at large. Therefor we can assume that they prefer to cater to big business and a lot less to informing the audience. So did anyone follow up with Gabriel Gavin, Eva Hartog and Geoffrey Smith of Politico? I reckon that the larger papers didn’t bother, as they want to appease certain parties and this article might be a little embarrassing to their stake holders.

I let you shift out what is real and what is not. The BBC lacks the parts that I lightened months ago on the premise of an article by Politico, a media party that has proven themselves a mere dozen times over. So where do you stand? And for those who want to state that it is about gas and not about oil. The Russian war Machine needs the revenue of both, and if one remains operational the Russian war machine goes on. 

Have a great day.

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January 9, 2025 · 21:53

Is it semantics?

There is a question that the entire ‘annexation’ of Canada brings to light. Is it the setting of an unintelligent person to employ humor (I try to steer clear of the word stupid) or is there a larger setting? So what is the actual meaning of this?

The previous story gave you part of that, but CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-absorb-canada-response-1.7426177) gives us (optionally) more. It starts with ‘No longer a joke: Ministers say Trump’s threats to absorb Canada need to be taken seriously’ where we are confronted with “Trump said Tuesday he’d be willing to use ‘economic force’ to join countries”, we saw that and as such it would not be enough. 

But there is more, the setting of “Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Wednesday that U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s assertions that Canada should become the 51st state should be taken seriously, after he initially dismissed them as a joke. “The joke is over,” LeBlanc told reporters in French. “The president and his allies continue to repeat this — we know it’s not going anywhere — but the fact that he’s repeating it, it’s not very constructive.”” You see, this is true. But as we have surmised several times in the past, there is a need for any politician to seek the limelight (not that this is always wrong). As such we are given and shown that Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Immigration Minister Marc Miller and International Trade Minister Mary Ng all have their say. Yet, they all miss a few corners. You see we are overwhelmingly confronted with ‘influencers’ all seeking limelight and they ‘know’ that outbursts of Donald Trump give them the emotional rhetoric to flame settings. Now they all get the chance to drill into 40 million Canadians, all eager to grow their ‘momentum’ that is the lose for to a lot of this. And it is a lot like the setting in the Patriot (that movie with Mel Gibson). Why swap 1 political party 5800 kilometers away when you could have 58 political players 100 kilometers away? That would make no sense and Canadians need to be aware of this. What is the optional stage oil that people like Donald Trump and Kevon O’Leary (a Canadian no less) will opt for the direct marketing of 40 million Canadians to get the upper hand. Whatever O’Leary claims, he will be in it for the money. He wants to ‘secure’ his 400 million and preferably add some (hundreds of) millions to it and as I see it, anyway will do. The man is the direct opposite of Ryan Reynolds. He is in it for his money in his own way, but a lot more intelligent. Any party he engaged with enriched him and he enriched them by a lot. And there is a social/national pride in his achievements. That is the proper way enterprising and capitalism needs to work. I wonder why no one sees that. 

The larger issue is not that, it is the setting what the Commonwealth needs to do. At some point it is forced to bulk up their borders and that is the strapping setting. The UK, Australia and New Zealand will be forced to take a stance. Optionally not New Zealand, their Sopwith Camels don’t have the range to fly to the US. And I don’t think that they have an operational Army either, good enough for humanitarian jobs and rescue operations, but actual war on another shore? I doubt that.

So the Commonwealth could start crying foul and invite China to become the aid party of choice. China will love that, now it gets army and navy posts right at the front door of America. And now we get a new Cuban missile crises, but one at the front door of Los Angeles, Hollywood (the burning one), Chicago, New York and Washington DC. Yes, a real good sense of humor, mr. President elect. And let the influencers get the blame, it was his posts (allegedly) that is setting the flames sprawling and unlike the ones in California, these flames will have a national impact. Americans asked for this, they elected the man. So what comes out is on their own heads. As a commonwealthian I share the feelings of Justin Trudeau who said on January 7th (source: CBC) ‘Trudeau says ‘not a snowball’s chance in hell’ Canada joins U.S.’ And as that setting evolves I wonder if I should swap my optional future in Toronto with a more secure lifestyle in Abu Dhabi. The idea of having an apartment next to a mall (Yas Mall) and 4 tourist attraction becomes highly appealing especially if the Harry Potter universe is added in 2025 to the Warner Brothers Abu Dhabi park. Perhaps IBM needs IBM Statistics support staff in Abu Dhabi. With a (delusional) sign on bonus of $15 million I’ll be game to witch Australia for the United Arab Emirates. Still willing to move to Toronto (for the same amount mr Ellison), so what are my options? Unless something is done with the President elect, I merely see the UAE as an option. Consider that, that people are willing to leave Canada and the beauty it holds for a different kind of beauty (UAE, Abu Dhabi). And in the end it will merely delay the bankruptcy by 5 years, which gets Trump out of deep water and after that America will drag Canada into the same mess it created for itself, well done Wall Street.

All that for a sense of delusional humor? I will let you decide, yet consider that America opened to door to grow China in near exponential size, because they could end up with options in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. As Elon Musk has shifted his interest into ousting Keir Starmer from the post of PM of the United Kingdom (which is not the worst idea), however whatever he wants to replace him with will be a person HE can control and that is not on with me.

The last country will open doors all over Europe. How is the expensionarlism of Trump hitting you now? On the upside, these four nations will see a larger investment from China in their regions. Not the best option, but taking in account what America had in mind a optional preferable one.

Have an optional great day.

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December 29, 2024 · 22:00

At the close of a year

This might be the last article this year (no promises). I have been haunted by a weird dream, but that is not what this is about. You see, the army recognition group gave us yesterday (at https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2024/saudi-arabia-eyes-up-to-100-turkish-kaan-fighter-jets-as-us-made-f-35-remains-inaccessible) ‘Saudi Arabia eyes up to 100 Turkish Kaan fighter jets as US-made F-35 remains inaccessible.’ I know nothing of this plane, so I am not going in that direction. The setting that the US set the inability of the F35 being handed to Saudi hands is worthy of responding to. You see, the pricing of the F35 is set to “$102.1 million for the F-35C.” This means that America lifted their nose at 10 – 25 billion of hard needed income. The planes, the support and engineering surplus and a few other options. I expected that China would ‘swoop’ in to get that money. It is decently plausible that their were more reasons. I am merely setting that this could also mean the end of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), you see, airbases on foreign ground are meant for allies and America has priced them out of that corner. As I see it Anthony Blinken has done away with that option. You see, only two months ago we got “US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday sought to make headway with Saudi Arabia on” whatever ‘his’ administration is ‘worried’ about. You need to have an ally for that and the fact that the F35 has been ‘unavailable’ since 2012. That is over 12 years, so as the F35 faces being optionally phased out by 2030, they lost one of their biggest customers and provisional ally in the Arabic peninsula as I personally see it. 

And America? Well, who needs an ally who is never there? That is the short and sweet part of this all and for Turkey this might be the sweet deal of the century. At some point the UAE and Egypt will also require 5th gen stealth fighters. This will make it harder for America and China to get traction. I never expected that Turkey was on that level, but that shows you what I know of this field.

And this is not the first time America, Europe and China enter behind the fishnet only to end up with nothing. This potential purchase follows Saudi Arabia’s $3.1 billion agreement with Türkiye in 2023 for the acquisition of 60 Baykar AKINCI unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), set for delivery in 2025 and 2026.

So, when was the last time major governments walked away from a potential 15 billion deal? America might shout tariffs and the upcoming said expansion with their 51st state (Canada), but they forget that Canada is part of a Commonwealth and in their views (the Commonwealth) it amounts to a direct assault on the Commonwealth. So when was the last time a nation was engaged with the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, India, South Africa and at least two dozen more. If they reject all imports from America, the American economy goes the way of the dodo a lot faster than the dodo did. For China it sounds like a prolonged Christmas. You see, if they get traction with the Commonwealth, a desire they never thought realistic, but going after their largest member Canada might set that deal to nominal.

That as the rejection of billions set a dangerous premise for America and Saudi Arabia can play hard to get in that instance. So the next threat by the president elect Trump will set a minefield around (presumed) Marco Rubio making his job next to impossible. 

But we will see what will happen. In the meantime we should send a congratulatory card to Turkey for this achievement.

And of course the card for the next tenant of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), but that is likely to follow in 2025/2026. As I see it, the next two years are close to essential for the next administration to avoid a governmental garage sale. But what do I know?

Still, in retrospect the dream still bugs me. The dream was a job at ADNOC, in Abu Dhabi. They had an AS400 running SPSS 6.1.3 and it had been gathering dust. It wasn’t working and the people at IBM said it was the fault of ADNOC. In the dream I merely had to remove 2 lines (reading ASCII data), two variables Alphanumeric were making a mess of things and removing the two lines solved 96% of the issue. 96% was fixed in the first hour (well for one job). I needed two additional hours to align the alphanumeric fields. And that took two hours to work out, I used Excel for that (the one Microsoft program Microsoft got right). And with that the first month was back on track. A weird setting, as I know next to nothing of ADNOC, I know that they are in oil, and that is all. I haven’t thought of that program in over 2 decades, so what gives? Well, in part technical support at SPSS was perhaps one of the most fulfilling jobs. But the powers that be didn’t see me as IBM material. O well, such is life. 

Time to head to the end of the year and see what 2025 will bring. 

Have a great day and the optional conclusion of a great year.

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December 17, 2024 · 20:27

The meme of nothing

Something made me pause this morning. The actor Tim Russ (Tuvok, Star Trek Voyager) had sent a meme over Twitter. Now in itself this is nothing new, actors and actresses do this to entertain the fans and for the most show their commitment to issues. The meme below was send.

I have seen similar memes for some time and the setting is fine, it is just a useless meme. Like all those people shouting tax the rich. You see America is a nation of laws and there are all kinds of laws. This impacts tax laws and an overhaul has been overdue for over a quarter of a century. I made mention of this as early as June 8th 2014 (over aI made several more mentions, even earlier at that. In this case I wrote “The US gets through taxation a mere 14% of where the debt is at. How is any of that realistic? So, the total collected taxation, before any other cost is taken into account (like paying government staff and utilities), it only amounts to 14%, after all that is done 0.1% is left if the US government gets a fitting budget (something that has not been achieved since president Clinton was in office).”, the debt now is close to 50% larger. So wonder if you will, what is the use of taxing the rich if the law prevents discrimination? Moreover we might want to blame Billy bad boy Gates (Microsoft), Sergei sneaky Brin (Google), Larry Scoundrel Ellison (Oracle), Jeff paperback Bezos (Amazon), Tim the shifter Cook (Apple) or even Andy off-the-books Jessy (Also Amazon). We can call them names, we can blame them. The truth is that they did nothing wrong. They adhered to tax laws, a black letter interpretation if you want, but the problem is not them, it is the people who wrote the laws, the stakeholders that influenced the lawmakers and the politicians who weaselled out for all kinds of selfish reasons. There is no Democratic or Republican blame, they are all to blame from Bill Clinton onwards. The last president in the existence of America who had a surplus in the treasury. It has been that long and and I wrote about it over a decade before, I am pretty sure I raised it a few times before that, but the story should be clear. A setting that has been known for over a decade and the media loves the tax the rich flames. They love cashing in on flames per digital dollar. The rest not so much. So wonder something simple. Am I more intelligent than 334,925,763 Americans? I don’t think so. I am definitely not more intelligent than the five mentioned above and a few dozen more. They knew what was going to happen and as such they aren’t innocent, but they were not guilty either. Guilt should be sought in Washington DC, amongst the lawmakers. They catered to the mess America is in now and these meme’s are entertaining but incorrect. One might surmise that some of the wealth of Jeff Bezos comes from the fact that he can safe on shampoo. A bottle of that stuff costs  £390 in Harrods, so that is money saved in the bank. The rest has hair (as far as I know). 

You think I am making a joke, but there is a hidden flaw in that. You see, shampoo is something we all get to buy, I have no doubt that they have all kinds of expenses that a doctor misses out on. Tax deductions are the game for some and that is pretty much all they can be gotten on. The rest is corporate and that impacts Amazon, Apple, Google, and all other corporations and that is set in law and the lawmakers gave these corporations a huge discount all over the place. So when you go in ‘tax the rich’ mode, consider how useless that mode is. 

As someone told me, when you get access to web camera on Tiananmen Square,

tilt the camera from centre 24.5 degrees to the left and 15 degrees up, you might (might is the operative word) see President Xi stating ‘對富人徵稅’ howling with laughter (I have no idea what he says, I do not know Chinese. But I reckon they are grateful for the easy victory handed to them by American lawmakers no less.

The simplicity is that America gave the world away by giving tax breaks to corporations. And there isn’t much time left, there might not be any time left. As I personally see it, in the age of President Trump the corporations will clean house, give the bonuses to the board of directors and they will all split to a zero tax place with no extradition. You might call me out on that, but that is how I see the world change and they will leave whatever is left behind to clean up the mess. It will go gradually, but I reckon that these five people will have at least one apartment in Monte Carlo, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Nassau or Lichtenstein and they will get some diplomatic status so that they cannot be extradited to America. 

You want to doubt this, fine. But the reality for over a decade will have been clear. The taxation does not show or warrant the amount of debt America has and Economists all over the world either never said anything or the media kept it quiet. Your choice in what happened. I actually cannot tell. I can only see the numbers, not the reality behind that. I am not an economist, but I reported this for over a decade, so I feel fine. I leave it up to you to dig into the matter how others (with economic degrees) didn’t see this. And when the next bubble comes (the thing they refer to AI) and the so called trillions of revenue, that bubble is as I see it an excuse for some on whatever mattering reason to remain in denial that it was a simple error (in stead of that it never was possible) and they will walk away with whatever they can afford. 

Bubbles are only useful as long they are still presented when that falls down (I reckon within 1-2 years) the setting changes from what they think is bad to actually severely disastrous. And it was never going to be solved via memes.

As I see it the meme doesn’t lie, but the impact goes in the wrong direction and has been going in the wrong direction for over a decade. There was an urgency for my selling my IP and I would rather be in a pace with some actual money then be thrown in the midst of desperate people seeking someone to blame, but that’s just me. 

Have a great day.

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December 10, 2024 · 19:46

The revolving question

That is at times in almost everything the setting. We might all go nuts about ‘mismanaging’ settings and I am to a certain degree not impervious to that setting. But after writing ‘The losing bet’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/12/08/the-losing-bet/) I started to mull things over. You see, people like Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan are not stupid. But there is a dangerous calm as people are given the questions and are given ‘a kind of answer’ and Microsoft is massively adapt in setting the stage to THEIR advantage and I suddenly realised a simpler setting. When was the question asked of Microsoft ‘What is AI?’ And ‘What is the premise of what you call AI?’ With ‘What is the data setting of AI?’ In this I reckon that some eyes will open. We see all settings of Ai mentioned, but the clear definition and a comparison to the setting that Alan Turing gave us 1950, moreover together with John McCarthy gave us the Turing test. So how far did people dig into this part of the equation? You might disagree with me on my stance of AI and that is okay. We do not all see eye to eye on a whole range of matters. But in this, in a Texas Hold’em style of business poker it becomes increasingly important to set the stage of definitions and hold them up to the light. In that game Microsoft doesn’t get to spin out of the stage ad blame it all on miscommunication. In that stage Microsoft has to hide into the margins or come out into the light. The second stage is likely and very pleasing to my ego.

You see, when people are part of a $1.5 billion investment there are people who are not pleased with that fact and they will nitpick any document handed to them. One of the oldest settings was ‘What are the definitions?’ Was in older days the way to see what players were up to and that stage got a little lost in populism and ‘fast’ presentations appeasing to the spending player. You might think that it is Microsoft paying, but you would be wrong. The UAE and G42 are investing time and resources to make it all work and I foresee that players like Microsoft (not just them) are trying to play fast and loose with definitions so that they can bank the first agreements and then turn back and hide behind ‘miscommunications’ after that fact. Which is why we have the clear setting of definitions. As such making all players answer that question gives a first setting. You see, there is no AI at present and that comes out at that very start. And no matter how clever LLM’s and Deeper Machine Learning is, the setting becomes data and who is responsible of that data. Now we get different players out and in the full-grown light. People like Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan will then immediately see who is endangering the security of the UAE and they have no sense of humour at that point. No matter how some see the ‘opportunity’ of a life time, the moment the national pride comes into view of danger, the UAE will demand clarity on matters and I reckon some will ‘trivialise’ matters and when you ‘invest’ $1.5 billion there is an issue with trivialisation (which is why I referred to a Texas Hold’em style). Now some will say that I am bluffing and I want to be ‘inserted’ as a possible player. You would be wrong. I do not want to be linked to a player like Microsoft in any way. Google, Amazon, Adobe, IBM and Oracle definitely, Microsoft not at all. As such I am not anti-American (a claim that was thrown at me several times in the past). I am anti-stupid (mostly) and when you start trivialising $1.5 billion I see you as stupid, and no matter what I think of Microsoft, they are not overly stupid. In some things yes, in other things (like playing black letter law stages) not that much. 

But all that becomes moot when some players release the definition lists to all we will see how silly my thoughts are, because these definitions go through the entire project and there is no way they get changed unless all parties openly agree. Oh and before you think that this is a ploy. You might be right. You see, I do not know where China is at present ad I would live to find out. So what is better then Microsoft setting the entire definition list to paper and release it all? I reckon we will see a Chinese response less then 48 hours alter. 

The revolving question is an almost needed stage because definitions on paper is what matters, if it isn’t written down it doesn’t exist. That has been a matter long before the Prince by Niccolò Machiavelli. I reckon it goes back to the days of Gaius Julius Caesar Augustus (63BC-14). So this setting was known for 2000 years and with all the turbo presentations and innuendo I get the feeling it got lost in the woodwork of it all. As such I thought it was a great idea to remind people of that. 

Silly me, have a great day.

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December 8, 2024 · 22:46

The losing bet

That happens, we make bets. We all do in one way or another. Some merely hurt our pride and/or our ego. Some deals hurt others and there are other settings, too many to mention. But Reuters alerted me three hours ago on a deal that will have a lot of repercussions. The article ‘US clears export of advanced AI chips to UAE under Microsoft deal, Axios says’ (at https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/advanced-ai-chips-cleared-export-uae-under-microsoft-deal-axios-reports-2024-12-07/) is one that has a few more repercussions than you imagined it had. The global loser (Microsoft) has set up a setting where we see “The U.S. government has approved the export of advanced artificial intelligence chips to a Microsoft-operated facility in the United Arab Emirates as part of the company’s highly-scrutinised partnership with Emirati AI firm G42, Axios reported on Saturday, citing two people familiar with the deal.” Microsoft is as desperate as I think they are with this deal. They probably pushed the anti-China agenda and made mention of the $1.5 billion dollar investment deal. And as we are given “The deal, however, was scrutinised after U.S. lawmakers raised concerns G42 could transfer powerful U.S. AI technology to China. They asked for a U.S. assessment of G42’s ties to the Chinese Communist Party, military and government before the Microsoft deal advances.” And we are also given “The approved export license requires Microsoft to prevent access to its facility in the UAE by personnel who are from nations under U.S. arms embargoes or who are on the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security’s Entity List, the Axios report said.” In this I have a few issues.

In the first there is no AI, not yet anyway as such the investment is going the way like water under a bridge. Microsoft knows this as such they are betting big and they have the US government backing them. In the worst case it will be the US government putting up the $1.5 billion themselves and with the anti-China sentiment that is a likely result from this.

In the second the setting that Microsoft is banking on is a loop setting with multiple exists. Yesterday the Financial Times informed us ‘OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching ‘AGI’ clause with Microsoft’ (at https://www.ft.com/content/2c14b89c-f363-4c2a-9dfc-13023b6bce65) the events are piling up and as I see it Microsoft is on the edge if desperation. You see, it all hangs on the simplest setting that there is no AI (not yet at least). What we have is a setting with LLM’s and Deeper Machine Learning and it is clever and it is a ‘optional’ wholesome solution to a lot of paths. But it is no Artificial Intelligence. You see, as all the laws are part of ethics and ‘AI’ people look around and think that there is ‘awareness’ of solutions. There are not. It is all data managed, a somewhat clever solution to people seeking an aware-like solution in data and some kind of knowledge discovery mode. It all could be clever, but it is still no AI and at some point certain people will dig it out and I reckon the UAE will be ahead of it all. Microsoft and its Ferengi approach of ‘When you get their money you never give it back’ comes with nice loopholes. You think that Microsoft made the ‘investment’ now here is the cracker. There is nothing stopping Microsoft of putting it in a ‘bad bank’ approach and make it all tax deductible and then some. And when the “artificial general intelligence” (AGI) clause is dropped there will be all kinds of attention from all over the place and no one is looking at the details of whatever they consider AI and what Alan Turing clearly considered to be AI. When the people that matter start looking and digging the days of Microsoft will be numbered. Another bubble game created and now that they have ‘enticed’ the wrong kind of people they will want their pound of dollars. And as we are given “The Biden administration in October required the makers of the largest AI systems to share details about them with the U.S. government. G42 earlier this year said it was actively working with U.S. partners and the UAE’s government to comply with AI development and deployment standards, amid concerns about its ties to China.” And in that setting Microsoft decided to be the governmental bitch to say the least. And all these media moguls are so loosely playing along and what will happen when someone digs into this. They will play dumb and say “We didn’t comprehend the technology” and it wasn’t hard. I saw it months ago, if not nearly almost two years ago. And the media was stupid? No, the media goes the way of the digital dollar, the way of the emotional flame. So as the field opens, we see all kinds of turmoil with Microsoft claiming to be the ‘saviour’ all nice and kind (of a sort), but when you look at the setting, it is my personal speculated feeling that Microsoft wouldn’t have made this move unless they had very little moves left. And in this setting the one player is forgotten. China, how far along are their ‘designs’? And in all this what are their plans? We seem to be given the setting that it is all American, but as the media cannot be trusted what is the ACTUAL setting? I have no clue, but in a world this interactive, China cannot be far away. 

And if there are people who disagree, that is fair, but the actual setting is largely unknown. So when we get to the last paragraph which gives us “Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Company, the UAE’s ruling family and U.S. private equity firm Silver Lake hold stakes in G42. The company’s chairman, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, is the UAE’s national security advisor and the brother of the UAE’s president.” Consider this small fact. Microsoft seems to be ‘investing’ all whilst the anti-China rhetoric is given. Do you think that anyone who is the National Security Advisor (of the UAE) hasn’t seen through a lot of this? So what was the plan from Microsoft? I am at a loss, but with the AI setting the way it actually is none of this makes sense. Do they really believe that Microsoft is any kind of solution in this setting? Simply look at the accusation that Microsoft has also been criticised for the perceived declining quality and reliability of its software. That is your partner in so-called AI? Just a thought to consider.

Well, you all have a lovely Sunday. My Monday is a mere 80 minutes away.

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December 5, 2024 · 17:07

The price of debt.

That is what I am looking at, the price of debt. You see, they are all hailing that the US economy is strong. One voice (Goldman Sachs), the one that lost it all in 2007 told the world that America would be strong at 2.5% (somewhere I read it). To all it sounds nice and I like nice, but I also query a system that is to my (non-economic view) is rigged. As we see images all over the place on how good things are supposed to be, consider:

We see the setting as tax collected. For 2023 is was “The US government collected nearly $4.7 trillion in gross taxes during the 2023 fiscal year, which is a 15.5% decrease from 2022. The IRS collected taxes from a variety of sources”, now for some it is a little more then milk money. And that sounds nice, but the other side has “As of October 2024, the United States government’s monthly interest rate on its debt is 3.3%. The average interest rate for 2024 is 3.32%, and the total debt is $35.46 trillion.” Consider the simple setting of 3.32% of $35.46 trillion. This gives us $1,170,180,000,000 dollar annually. Which would be ‘liveable’ were it not for the simple fact that this is ONLY interest. The debt remains. And now we have a problem. You see the interest is is a simple 24.89% of the entire taxable revenue and it was 15.5% less from 2022. Do you now see the problem? 25% of all taxable revenue goes to the banks that carry the debt. The federal government spent $6.75 trillion in FY 2022. This means that they spend over 30% to much, more than they had and if there was no debt we could argue, but at this setting we are faced with the simple fact that $6.75 trillion was spent over an available amount of $3.5 trillion, which is getting worse and worse. As such we could surmise that the debt will increase with a little over 3 trillion over spending over last year alone. As I see it America is done for. And the setting worsens with the optional crushing of Google in 2025 (by breaking up that firm) which give Huawei their first global win. Then the defence industry is losing more and more revenue to China and this sets a larger premise. In that setting we see on one hand “The A&D industry generated $425 billion in economic value, representing 1.6 percent of the 2023 nominal GDP in the U.S.”, yet in this we already seeing revenue shifting to China in this year alone and more revenue goes to Europe. For Saudi Arabia alone this sets the bar at “In 2024, the Saudi Arabian defense budget is worth $71.7 billion and will grow at a CAGR of more than 8% during 2025-2029.” Yet other sources give us that “Saudi Arabia estimates military spending will be 15 percent lower than budgeted this year” as such we could surmise that this implies that Saudi Arabia by itself would spend $10 billion less. Not a biggie you say, but the other side is that China now has a little over 10% on that slice of delicious gunpowder baked pie. Making the loss for America more. As such we see an annual loss of $16 billion in one year alone from one customer. As such, what would be the books on India, Japan, Taiwan, Pakistan and Indonesia? If we see these picture, we see a dangerous escalation towards some fictive nil revenue for America. Fictive because that will never happen, but as the largest players seek economic stability they will spend less and take other jobs ‘in-house’ as the expression goes and America has been too reluctant to appease to that state of mind. And now China will step in to offer just that. As I see it, the question on the dollar setting was wrong. We are given “As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD” against the tariffs threat by president elect Trump. The actual question would become “How long could the US Dollar keep standing?” You see, as the debt becomes a millstone around the neck of the US administration, we need to consider that some nations will seek shelter from the fallout that this setting. In 2017, on March 17th I wrote ‘The finality of French freedom’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/), I set the comparison of the Euro like a barge kept in balance by 4 strong economies. UK, France, Germany and a combined economic anchor. The UK was lost and there was a setting when the French anchor would be lost too. The Euro could not survive a setting with two anchors. A simple equation. Now with the Dollar under attack the Euro could face near certain scuttling. As such the Dollar has an influence there. China seemingly doesn’t care, but the other players who make up a combined anchor might switch sides when they merely look at their own currency. And the debt? They will not care. And as such the dollar faces a lot more than the bully tactics of choice. They will need to up the game by a lot, because when one goes, so will the other and that puts the livelihood and liveability of 784 million people at the markers. 100,000 of them will do fine, but that represents a simple 0.01275348% of people who are likely to make it (outside of the EU and USA), so when were that good statistics? 

The price of debt was always there, but the media has been eager and willing to hide those facts through BS and spin and soon when the people catch on (the other 99.987% of people), the live of playing the media courtesan will be one of the most dangerous of them all. People remember. And it was a simple equation for the media. “You can fool all the people some of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time but you can never fool all of the people all of the time” A simple setting I knew to be true as early as the early 80’s. So how long did they have at most? Some are already falling in the bad light and when the people realise that they weren’t eating potatoes, but turnips. They will become massively enraged. 

A simple setting I have known to become reality at some point. So when are we given the goods? When the interest of the debt of America is shown as a setting against the budget and at this time it is around 25%, Americans need to realise that budgets need to diminish by at least 30%, so at what point do the people realise that the simplicity of the matter is that their money is about to be gone?

Have a lovely day.

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