Tag Archives: America

December 3, 2024 · 22:58

Bully tactics

The BBC (LinkedIn also) gave us a story. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgrwj0p2dd9o) is giving us ‘Trump threatens 100% tariff on Brics nations if they try to replace dollar’. We are given “US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on a bloc of nine nations if they were to create a rival currency to the US dollar. “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” Trump wrote on social media on Saturday.”Now we can shout high and low, but the simple setting is that this is merely the second setting on the line that the good times are over in the US and things are about to get a lot worse. The simplest setting to consider is that if these facts present themselves the first hurdle will crash the little economy that they have. Let me explain. If President elect Trump goes through with that. Stuff in a place called Walmart will become close to twice as expensive. This implies that Walmart will drop all goods from China and India. As such others will have to provide, which will turn out to be close to impossible. Consider that Walmart employs 2,100,000 people and as I see it close to 60% will be out of a job then. Walmart has a net income of 16 billion dollars. It comes from $648 billion dollars. Now all these Chinese and Indian goods would get a 100% Tarif. So what happens when all those goods get a 100% surcharge? The American administration will drown Walmart into oblivion. Add to that the Google issues and China will get near clean run on running the global economy. So why wouldn’t they push for a Yuan to become the new central currency? And in that process slam the American administration as well? I reckon that China is chomping at the bits to get started on that. With the hardships given to Google, Huawei gets a smashing option to take market shares from Google in Europe the Middle East and Asia. Apple will get hit, but not as much. Then we get the Walmart and its wannabe’s who rely on cheap goods from China and India and they will all pretty much lose whatever they had. When we see Walmarts closing all over America many will realise that the game for America is up. I did mention this danger for well over a decade. When you let the debt run out of control with no exit strategy there is no real solution coming. I saw that a mile away, so why didn’t these overpaid economists? Now we get the new AI bubble and soon people will realise that it is merely another gimmick. When the revenue stays away from the books, when these revenues get pushed back again and again the third step will be reached. So president elect can bully as much as they can, but the pole position was missed and whomever is in control have no solutions to offer other then austerity that goes beyond anything Wall Street could ever have predicted and the party is over now. Don’t worry the family members to Sam Walton and Bud Walton will be fine. They can relocate to a nice place where they can spend their money. The other 2.1 million are royally screwed. I will not blame any Walton. They played the economy game and they played it well, they have options. The bulk will not. And when the dollar is replaced, banks, retirement companies will as I suspect buckle as well. The impact of a $36,000,000,000,000 debt. The impact will go slow but it would be undeniable. As BRICS decides on another currency they will attract several other players and the European parties will consider the change and they will do what is in the best interest of their Euro, they will not care about the US dollar for one second. That is the reality that was pretty much spelled out half a decade ago. I get that America will try to do what is best for America, but that option was nulled when parties decided to break up Google. That was the first step towards the end. And now Huawei will be the best option for many players. So as the economic map will be redrawn, we will see a new horizon with India, China, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia at the head of this new horizon. In that new map there is no longer a mention of America, the US dollar will remain a little while longer until all other nations have dumped trillions in dollar bonds. That will be the trigger that ends the world economy as it currently is. 

Have a great day today, tomorrow is the midweek and a mere three weeks until Christmas.

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December 2, 2024 · 00:04

When it rains, it pours

That was the very first thought I had when I was confronted with the opinion piece in the Middle East Monitor (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241129-saudi-arabia-abandons-pursuit-of-us-defence-treaty-over-israel-stalemate/) where we see ‘Saudi Arabia abandons pursuit of US defence treaty over Israel stalemate’. I have said it before and I will say it again. The US needs to stop their stop gap resolution of “We can do this, if we can have….” That is a setting that is past tense. America needs to open all valves to get any revenue out of Saudi Arabia (and other nations there). Now that we see “Saudi Arabia is now pushing for a more modest military cooperation agreement, two Saudi and four Western officials told Reuters” the US needs to stop its appeasement trajectory. On the plus side China is pretty happy with that flawed approach from America. There is every chance that China will open the flood gates and let Saudi Arabia go nuts on the Chengdu J-20. 

Is this a given? Nope, but for others to see Saudi Arabia embracing the J-20 is the first sign that America is about to lose several contracts. Not all (it fits with the modest military cooperation agreement setting) I predicted a loss of 40% towards the US defense contracts and so far there are indications that 30 billion left American shores for Europe and China (unverified numbers). But the first stage has been reached. And the setting changes if this does happen. The American loans are set to a 90%-95% fulfilment of contracts and there are larger consideration that America will at best get 60%-65% restated for America. And it gets worse for the US, Saudi Arabia has stated to grow its national defense settings and if China makes that happen all whilst Antony Blinken remains in the appeasement setting, the losses will get worse. I speculate a lot worse, but I don’t have access to anything reliable for the numbers in that game. As such, I need to add the ‘speculation’ label as I haven’t been connected to defence parties for 42 years. 

We are also given “Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has again made recognition of Israel conditional on it taking concrete steps to create a Palestinian State” I understand that setting, but I personally belief that this should be done after the eradication of Hamas. Saudi Arabia has been under attack through Iranian proxies for too long and as such the three terrorist organisations Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi their eradication becomes a near essential. You want to doubt this? That’s fair but the essential setting becomes that Iran wants to stop the achievements of Neom (including Sindalah, the Line, Trojena, Oxagon and Magna). At some point One of these three parties will be added to the work roster of them and they will introduce small flaws, flaws that might not be noticed now, but in a year or two when things start to go wrong, the costs will enormous. An Iran will be quiet for a larger share of the table that is how it starts and Saudi Arabia is too far ahead now. If we want to protect the achievements of Saudi Arabia eradicating Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah forces becomes the larger setting. All those weakhearted lefties will argue that these people are really sorry and should be forgiven. I say hell with that and eradicate them all. Or have you all forgotten how Saudi Arabia was on the verge of setting the larger stage to include Israel? Some will say that Hamas was brilliant and I say that this is the final straw setting the stage of eradication for these three puppets of Iran. And Iran knows that Israel is about to settle the attacks on the territory of Israel and that would escalate things even further. Now that will happen in two stages. In the first the attacks that Hezbollah will vie for and the threats from Iran takes it even further. The danger here is that Iran could ‘press’ Houthi forces further and that would force the hand of Saudi Arabia. In that stage China could proceed by handing Saudi Arabia a support setting of the Chengdu J-20 as well as the primary delivery of the speculated Xi’an H-20. I reckon that it is not completed yet, but they could hand 3 of these puppies to Saudi Arabia so that the Saudi Airforce could strike against the Houthi Forces. (I did say could, not will). Consider that these two planes would be readily sought by other Arabian nations (including Egypt, Jordan and Iraq) this is largely speculative, but it allows China to take more and more slices from American defence industries. And as this happens Iran needs to hide, because these choices would reduce the Houthi forces to next to nothing and at that point Iranian actions would fall flat and at that point Israel has options and Hamas should have none left. 

As such the Saudi war hammer will carve slices of Yemen to rubble. In all this there are two sides that matter. The first is that the west ignored that stages that China prepared for and now we see that Saudi Arabia has selected for “a more modest military cooperation agreement” with America, as scheduled the door opens for China to get more of towards America assigned spending. As I personally would speculate is that Saudi Arabia is now in a good place to negotiate and as Blinken seemingly trusted on “We can do this, if we can have….” We see that America endangered its position for defence spending. I believe that I am correct, but there are signs that it is based on a opinion piece. Not on reported facts.

What people need to realise is that this all started on October 7th 2023 when Hamas struck the Nova music festival massacre, overall 1,139 people were killed and 250 Israeli civilians and soldiers were taken as hostages to the Gaza Strip. That started this mess but the media is extremely willing to avoid certain matters. And now we see a larger setting Saudi Arabia is (as I personally see it) ready to find a new defence partner and spend billions with that new partner. 

So when some will call this a mild rain, consider that thought because those billions would have paid for the loans which could now fall short of payment for the next few years.

As such appeasement becomes deadening. America made a massive booboo as I see it. Have a fun day.

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November 27, 2024 · 17:06

Saudi Fun craft

That is on the agenda. Most people are hauling what they can to see their name in COP29, but the others (or those who put their name down already) are trying to be seen as the anti-China voice in the middle east. Because that is what Trump wants, right?

That is the setting of the next wannabe, the next facilitator or the next service provider. Saudi Arabia, Aramco, the UAE and ADNOC’s next need, that is what their limited view states. I cannot agree. That was what the region needed, the next iteration however is as subtle as a maul to a shin.

You see, most are ‘reacting’ to ‘Better offer needed if the US wants to pull Saudi Arabia away from China’ (Amwaj media) or ‘Saudi Arabia seeks mining deals with Chinese, Indian and Canadian firms in industry push’ (AL-monitor). There are more headlines, but the cautious player notices that America (or USA) is in several instances no longer mentioned. That is the actual play. President  elect Trump has a problem. His library is not on the mind of those who need to have it on their minds and that is a plural issue. Microsoft might be ‘offering’ the world to the UAE in AI, but the critics who know a thing or two are skeptical. I cannot tell if there is a silence delay, or an actual disregard in play for the USA. You need to be in the know with China and a certain palace in Riyadh to know the actual setting. And in this Amwaj gives us “if Washington truly wants Riyadh to join the US camp, it should come up with a better offer—instead of a proposition with strings attached.” Funny that, I said something similar on March 11th 2020 in ‘Who is Miss Calculation?’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/03/11/who-is-miss-calculation/) the words are not the same, but the spirit was. As most would embrace Good business is where you find it, others went for Money talks, bullshit walks. So who was president then?

It does not matter, policies are always on a turntable, but the disc hits that direction 33 times a minute. Faster if you play a CD. No matter whose president when this matter resurfaces. China had a while to set his ducks in a row and he merely needs to watch the fallout whilst he takes shelter regarding the massive boink the Americas show when things turn sour.

America needs a positive hit and that implies being close friends with the Arabian allies UAE and Saudi Arabia. All whilst they know that they need to be friends with China as well. And that is a bitter pill to swallow for America. The tables turn even further as elemental deals (where America would have been the A-team for Arabia) we now see China, India and Canada taking slices of that pie as well. I send stern warnings in 2020 and now we see it happen. So consider that America had the biggest part of that pie until 2015, now we see that America (with $36,000,000,000,000 debt) ends up with a suspected mere 45% of that pie, 55% went into other directions. Add to that the deals Europe and Australia expects to make before Jan 1st 2025 and you see that Saudi Arabia is doing what it needs to do for its country. It might not look nice, but that is the reality of it all and I gave the people heads up for over 4 years. Now it all ‘looks like a crises’ that does not mean it is. It is merely a crises when you were unaware of it all and America was very aware. So seeks the sands with COP29 all whilst there are over 41000 flights each day and many are not needed. So how is that for “biologically formed organic matter”. Yes they will stop some of this all whilst a massive chunk of of these 41000 flight each day could be deleted. So where is COP29 now?

And it gets to be bad, or worse for America. The Tariff deal for Canada is seen as disastrous. But when it can deal with China and Saudi Arabia, what Canada loses on one side, it will gain more on the other side, America painted itself in a corner. And for the sweeter deal? It might be too late for that. China has gained about 15% of the pie that was meant for America, as such the bills will be pushed along forward and there is actual consideration that America would have to lease its land to others to make a shilling and it is not shillings that America needs. It needs a wheelbarrow of these coins. As I see it, America now has less than 4 turns until it can no longer make any moves. It wont be able to afford the entry fee to make a move. As such I personally believe that America has been playing the wrong game. They were playing chess whilst Chinese chess was needed. They never used the board optimal and now that they figured out the game, it is too late for that.

In my own view (optionally a wrong one), the friends of Trump are heading for the hills. They will not get away Scott free, but they will get away. The rest gets saddled with the biggest invoice in human history and they cannot foot the bill. And don’t think that this is not on you all. Your pensions are about to go the way of Lehman Brothers 2003. The loans that are still outgoing will be foreclosed by the banks foreclosing your banks and you end up having nothing to live upon. That too was blatantly obvious before the end of 2023. Now it matters to whom have the flexibility to make moves with whatever capital they have. Don’t rely on the stock markets. Have investments that are mobile, or optionally real estate. I feel certain that it will come to blows in 2025 when America shows that it has issues settling the bills they have. That is when panic goes global. And when you see this unfold those with a decent penny in Aramco and ADNOC will have a return on investment, the rest? Whatever of these rest players will be left alive in Q2 2025, because there is no reality that this will be true.

And when you ask how come? That would be fair and the answer wa staring you in the face. Country 1 gave payment to a debt of country 2 and Country 2 gave payment to a debt of country 1. So what is that called? And this had been going on for decades. I thought the barn was done away with when we learned of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic going south on the debit line. However, the worst was dealt with. This time around it might be worse. The USA would need to call themselves bankrupt and the impact of that is beyond my ability to see, but I am willing to place a bet that China knows exactly what to do. You see, when this comes to pass China and others can vie for the 6,278,000 billion barrels a day it imports. It might be cheaper then getting their own oil, but that is where it is headed. India and China will try to get the largest chunk of it. As such Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Colombia will need new customers and I reckon India and China will be chomping at the bits to get these slices of oil. It will impact global economy to a much larger extent. And that was merely the first part. Consider that Huawei is taking over another slice of technology and you have one country falling short on several fields, merely because they did not think things through. So wanna seen what happens when you owe a bank a massive amount of cash and you can only cover 60% of the monthly payments?

How long until this party is over?

Enjoy the day.

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November 8, 2024 · 21:00

All the way from Ottawa

Yup, that was the question mark that I had. I saw it at the CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/guilbeault-china-saudi-arabia-climate-1.7376007) where we get ‘China, Saudi Arabia should pay up to help the planet cope with climate change: Guilbeault’ OK, I like my sarcasm with plenty of Maple Syrup (a personal choice). A wholesome breakfast as it says. We are given “Guilbeault wants emerging economies to contribute to a new climate goal”. This sounds nice on paper, but it doesn’t hold the pastrami. I feel uneasy as the idea sounds nice, but it seems to have all kinds of unforeseen complications. And as we consider “Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said Wednesday he wants China and Saudi Arabia to contribute money to international efforts to help poorer countries struggling with the worst effects of climate change.” You know, America and Europe take its own share of decades of looting in wealth the established setting of the commodity of oil. Oh, and why give OPEC and China that bill? Where is Am Erica for that bill? I am pretty sure that some president of the US give Steven Guilbeault the finger the moment he states that out loud. There is a larger setting. You see, we could decrease the allowed oil for any nation by 10%, then there is my favourite, decrease global flights by 15% (taken in account that there are way too many flights happening). You see, the last 15 years we have seen a million flights per year more. I did a calculation once (in 2021) where I stated “That amounts to 41,000 flights a day, every single day.” I did this on November 13th 2021 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/11/13/a-cop26-truth/) in ‘A COP26 truth’ As I see it, this will have a better result. But Steven Guilbeault does not want that. He merely want to point the finger at China (to get the blessing of some president), he’ll also point the finger at Saudi Arabia which will not go anywhere. As I personally see it, this is a limelight piece. Get the shiny lights thrust upon him whilst the solution goes nowhere, and those poor poor emerging economies? Ad when we consider ““China will become, in fact, one of the biggest historic polluters in the coming years,” Guilbeault said.” What data does he have? In the coming years is speculation, as I see it, Russia will have to become a much larger polluter to get any fingers over the edge of disaster at present. There is no real data to consider that China will be anything like that. I wonder where he got the data, as the ‘data’ in march gave us all “India was declared as the third-most polluted country in 2023, after Bangladesh and Pakistan, according to a report released by Swiss air quality monitoring body, IQAir.” Which is interesting as they have a significant loss of longevity They went from eight position in 2022 to third position in 2023. Of that list of 50 cities 42 are in India. As such I call his bluff and wish him a nice day with what he has. Yes something needs to be done, pretty much everyone agrees with that. What it is, remains the question. Giving the Ace of Spades to China and Saudi Arabia is folly as I see it. The issue with any fire is to take away the air for a fire to breath, take away the fuel that propels the fire or put out the fire (the third is the lamest idea). As such you can limit oil to everyone, which will drive the price up, or take away the air for oil to burn (extremely hazardous to people). As such we are in a bind. Making this about emerging economies is just a bad option, or we lessen EVERYONE’S access to oil and the the emerging countries get their 100% and the largest economies get that limit decrease as well. I wonder how long it will take for everyone to ‘diminish’ the emerging economies. You see Steven Guilbeault blasted his statement to ‘merely’ include China and Saudi Arabia. In 2021 the United States used 20.4% of the petroleum-consuming countries it was number one with 5% more then number 2 (China), as such why didn’t Steven Guilbeault mention America? Oh, and Saudi Arabia isn’t even in that top 5. India (4.8%), Russia (3.8%) and Japan (3.5%) had those positions. As such it makes kinda sense to hand the spade to China, but not before America gets the spade as well. They both Amount to 36.1% of the petroleum-consuming countries. As such, when you consider these numbers. Is he anything more than a windy politician (like the ones from Chicago)?

It’s not all seemingly bad news. We are also given “According to one estimate, $2.4 trillion US in climate finance is needed by 2030 for investments to meet the Paris Agreement targets and related development goals.” Yes, that works with any nation with a gross federal debt surpassing $35,000,000,000,000. That really seemingly works and don’t blame President-elect Trump for that, Harris wouldn’t have been able to do that either. This is the result of sitting on your hands and too many presidents have done that going all the way back to President Clinton, which was 21 years ago. The easiest option is that we allow climate change to kill 27.8% of the population, making the decrease of 49,000 flights a day and 24.1% less oil used a manageable achievement. You see, the solution is very simple if you see the problem as simple as an arithmetic problem. Take away the people using oil and you get the same result. Oh, as a bonus consider that less food is required at that point. All simple solutions towards a conundrum that people aren’t willing to see as a real problem. Did I oversimplify the problem for you?

Have a lovely day and consider how much oil you used this week. 

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October 23, 2024 · 06:14

The tightening belt

What I foresaw is now coming to pass in more than one way. ECNS China gives us ‘Saudi Arabia aims to attract up to 5 million Chinese tourists by 2030’ there was always a shift coming and as we see it, Saudi Arabia becomes more and more driven to see what the Chinese markets can deliver. We saw this last week in the Saudi Tourism Festival held in Beijing on Oct 17, 2024. We are given “Saudi Minister of Tourism and Chairman of the Saudi Tourism Authority Ahmed Al-Khateeb said that Saudi Arabia is China-ready and welcomes all Chinese travellers with increased connectivity, customised products and strategic partnerships.” Now some of you will respond with ‘so what?’ And that might be fair in one way. But this number represents a much larger issue. As I see it, one third is goal driven tourism. People will decide on Saudi Arabia as a destination for a job, or as a cheap tourism destination. Two third will go as tourist with optional goals, but these three million tourists will go to Saudi Arabia and not to their ‘normal’ destinations. That will show in diminished numbers all over Europe (France, England, Spain and Italy) and America. These people will also attract optional tourists who will change their initial destination. The other 2 million will optionally retrench their optional ‘cheap labor’ destination from Australia and places like the Netherlands, Belgium and the nordic countries. You will think that it does not matter, but consider all these coffee places that ‘allowed’ for these people, optionally in other areas too. They will come short of their usual numbers. These tourists also spend all they earn in that country. As such there will be a shift, an initial shift that seems small but could grow over time. These 5 million will spend their money somewhere else (in Saudi Arabia) and that facilitates to more, it always does. You might not think much of this, but the Saudi job market is booming. There are (allegedly) at present a little over 10,000 jobs outstanding. A fair deal are out reach of a lot of them, but consider this job “Digital Marketing Specialist. Average Salary: SAR 9,500-35,000 per month” and consider that they have the Beijing University of Technology and over a dozen more universities where these young crackers would like to see options in their first 2 years. They have just graduated University, they have spend almost every waking hour working on digital solutions like TikTok, broadcast experience and on the other hand we see places like Huawei making waves in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These two places will see an increase of Chinese workers with an option to fulfil their dream a lot faster, so yes, Saudi Arabia will become a swing location for these people. All options that are shutting doors on Europe, Australia and America. 

We are also given “the country is preparing to launch its winter season tourism attractions, which will provide a range of experiences filled with entertainment, luxury, adventure and natural beauty, running from October to May”
Now consider that Oxagon, Trojena, Magna and Sindalah now suddenly will have a grasp of a thousand more affordable workers, bringing both a digitally active workforce as well as language skills to their regions. Yes, the cheaper groups will also infuse the wealth group from China to their shores because these people will encounter others with their language skills. As such the people who depend on these rich tourists will endure a lessened impact as they will all want to go to the newest places in Saudi Arabia. I reckon that in the 5,000,000 people will be at least 500,000 people who are beyond well-off and they will go to Saudi Arabia in the space of 2026-2028 (at least) and that is a kick to the heads of economy in the aforementioned countries. The top 1% of wealthy Chinese who are making over $80,000 are expected to spend that money in Saudi Arabia. And I am referring to the people who would have spend their cash in London, Paris and Orlando. Merely these three places will see a drop of income in the next few years. So how much more is needed? You might think that the small setting of “France is the most visited country within Europe, attracting an impressive 81,411,000 foreign sightseers each year”, but that would not be entirely correct. It includes all nations, including Europeans and a bunch of them will be attracted to Saudi luxury as well and consider that 1% is still 814,110, even if they merely lose 1%, that amounts to quite the drain on revenue and that is in part already heading towards Saudi Arabia. Already we are seeing messages on Free tourist visas, the one element that partially blocks choices is in the process of being removed. And all this is piling up against Europe and America. All whilst we were given ‘Tourism trips by residents of EU in 2023 up close to 6% y/y’ we ignore the drop that a mere 1% drop wouldn’t be much, but these tourists have beckoned billions in investments all over Europe and now I expect to see the Chinese drop as well as the ‘local’ tourists now dialling Saudi Arabia for their upcoming destination. Add to that whatever business bookings we see and you know these sales types, how they like to be known to go to new and luxurious destinations, the punch packing trips all over Saudi Arabia will be handing several body blows to Europe (America as well). We might merely see that the effort is on 5,000,000 Chinese tourists. But the overall impact will be a lot higher. That is the one part that everyone forgets about. The overly large population of tourists can only spend their money once or perhaps twice a year and the appeal of Saudi Arabia is overwhelming with at least three locations appealing to a lot of tourists. Add to this Riyadh and the impact of Saudi tourism will be felt in most of the tourist places of Europe and America. I reckon that if Disney and Universal sets a theme park in these places the damage will be near complete. Not a mere 2-3 years. But an impact over the next decade at least. Whatever we think of these parks in Orlando, they are overpacked and soon there will be an alternative of the same making. We see (at present) “With over 58 million annual tourist visits, Disney World averages approximately 159,000 visitors per day across all its parks” as well as “In 2023, 10 million tourists visited Islands of Adventure, a decrease of 9%” and consider that these two places could lose close to 15% more, people that have had enough of these massive queues and they want an alternative. Well Warner Brothers is already seeing an increasing populous enjoying Abu Dhabi and I reckon that these are all people contemplating Saudi Arabia as an optional destination.

Tourist destinations in Europe and America will see the need to tighten their belts. And this is not new. I floated the idea on September 27th 2023 in ‘As the belt tightens’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/09/27/as-the-belt-tightens/) so this is not news to me. I saw it coming a mile away (well, actually a year ago), and that is all before the glamour of Vision 2030 hits the tourists on the retina. I think I made my case 2 times over and the impact should be seen all over Europe in the time 2026-2028, after that? That depends how Saudi Arabia plays it cards. I made one other prediction (presumption) on what would be needed and that could put Europe and America in a bind, they either invest and make ready for 2025 or they might lose a lot more.

Have a great day and contemplate the view from the Aedas ski resort. Can America match that view? Now consider that Saudi Arabia could simultaneous hit 5-10 tourist attractions at the same time in 2026.

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October 22, 2024 · 07:13

Can you lose more than once?

That is the underlying thought that came to me when I saw the article in CNN (at https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/19/politics/us-israel-iran-intelligence-documents/index.html) stating ‘Leaked documents show US intelligence on Israel’s plans to attack Iran, sources say’, this is an issue (on more than one level). It. Comes with the underlying text “The US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity”, we can jump high and low but America (already) has a massive problem. First there was the she-boy Manning, then we got the Airforce gamer Jack Teixeira and the list doesn’t stop there. The initial investigation into Jack Teixeira gave notice to ‘15 Air National Guardsmen disciplined in Discord server leak’. This is a larger issue. I personally do not care how this sails, but consider the following part “How many leaked documents did the Publics Republic of China hand us?” This is the setting that we all face. When we consider the CNN article with “The documents, dated October 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday after being posted on Telegram by an account called “Middle East Spectator.” They are marked top secret and have markings indicating they are meant to be seen only by the US and its “Five Eyes” allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.” This implies that the remaining four eyes (namely Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) can now no longer trust America to keep Secret and higher classified documents under wraps. Optionally they are filled with Iranian players (possibly IRGC members) or people with Iranian allegiance. This is a problem, because that setting implies that Aman (military intelligence), Mossad (overseas intelligence) and Shin Bet (internal security) can no longer trust any information to America. 

Screenshot

This is not a joke, Israel has much of the goods (read: actionable intel) in the Middle East, the fact that America is in danger of being cut off from this makes their work harder. Consider actions being considered and the word from the CIA becomes “We don’t know at present” will stop a whole bunch of actions and that implies that America becomes a lot more inactive in the Middle East. This will not hinder China, but this becomes the first clear instance that Chinese intelligence will have the Mustard and America does not. It is also a first peg towards the setting that Saudi and Emirati intelligence would entertain thoughts on some collaboration with China on intelligence and as I see it America has enough problems at present.

Another part is seen with “One of the documents, which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the plans involve Israel moving munitions around.” A mere addition to the stage is “one of the documents” optionally we get a new view on US intelligence (see below).

And as such the CNN gives us both “A US official said the investigation is examining who had access to the alleged Pentagon document. Any such leak would automatically trigger an investigation by the FBI alongside the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies. The FBI declined to comment” as well as “The leak comes at an extremely sensitive moment in US-Israeli relations and is bound to anger the Israelis, who have been preparing to strike Iran in response to Iran’s missile barrage on October 1. One of the documents also suggests something that Israel has always declined to confirm publicly: that the country has nuclear weapons. The document says the US has not seen any indications that Israel plans to use a nuclear weapon against Iran” which spells trouble for America. The immediate danger for them is that Commonwealth intelligence will become less available. The second danger is that Israeli intelligence will be cut short. That is merely the initial danger. The secondary danger is that both Saudi and Emirati intelligence will close their doors on parties like the CIA, ODNI, DNI, INR, NSA, DIA and that is merely the beginning. There could be a definite setting where the entire intelligence will get an overhaul. In a few years they went from a perspective of being awesome to a close to becoming an absolute joke and this is a field where ‘friends’ will close he doors on you. 

My personal view on this is that the commonwealth needs to close the doors and archives until America finds the leaks in their organisation(s). 

There is a second view in this that this was orchestrated to bind the hands of some, and that is equally a danger as the American navigators can change directions every 4 years. As such the others are almost forced to close their doors until America cleans its houses. 

Well, enjoy your day and according to the CIA, several readers should cut down on the sugar in their coffee.

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October 16, 2024 · 22:46

The Squeezing hand

The Arab News had an interesting piece two days ago. It starts with ‘Iran at a crossroads over support for Hezbollah’ and it can be found (at https://arab.news/9bh3s). The story comes from Dr. Majid Rafizadeh and he talks an interesting talk (you know how these Harvard types tend to be). We get to see “The ongoing conflict places Tehran in a situation in which its strategic options appear limited, forcing its leaders to weigh them up carefully.” Where we are also given “Hezbollah, which has long been regarded as a proxy force of Iran, traditionally serves the purpose of advancing Iranian interests by exerting pressure on regional adversaries such as Israel. However, recent events have reversed this dynamic. The Islamic Republic now finds itself in a position whereby it must actively protect Hezbollah to ensure the survival of its ally and the preservation of its regional strategy.” We can from this gain the insight that the actions from Israel has met its goals. This is meant plural as we see in the first that they eradicated the top of Hezbollah and as such a whole new cadre of Hezbollah need to be interned and trained to keep the money streams going, as well as the hardware they require. And here lies the second tier of a new challenge. Iran will need a whole range of ‘military advisors’ in that region and that gives its own sides of problems (as I personally see it). The second tier becomes that the initial ‘brotherly’ setting towards Hamas is backfiring. So either Hamas commits to Hezbollah as well, or they become a lot more isolated. Yet the stage that is given through “There is little doubt that Iran will continue attempting to safeguard Hezbollah, as the group represents a cornerstone of Iran’s regional influence” As Israel pounds Lebanon the options for Hezbollah decrease, by a fair bit. An expression that comes to mind is “Always know if the juice is worth the squeeze”, this is not merely the act of squeezing, but it reflects on the fruit as well. If you have a fruit half the size the squeeze is no longer worth it and that is the part that Iran faces in this year and the next. As Hezbollah is dramatically downsized by Israel, Iran loses more and more regional influence and if Israel hits oil targets the stage will soon collapse. Yes, I saw all kinds of news that Israel stated that they will limit the attack to military targets and here is the little loophole. Oil is a valid military target as Iranian oil (a slight speculation) fuels all kinds of terrorist needs. 

And then we see the immense failure of America (CIA), we are given “Hezbollah holds immense strategic value for the Iranian government. From a military standpoint, the group is viewed as a formidable force capable of engaging Israel and other adversaries in the region. The strategic importance of Hezbollah lies in its ability to wage asymmetric warfare, which allows Iran to challenge its enemies indirectly while avoiding the consequences of direct military engagement. For Iran, Hezbollah represents a crucial tool for maintaining its influence and shaping regional outcomes in a manner that serves its interests” For over a decade a clear strategy against Hezbollah was required, but the CIA and other intelligence machines fell short. So are they really out there aiding Israel, or are they aiding the setting of prolonged instability? I made this accusation a few years ago and I am seemingly proven correct again and again. 

The article ends with “the Iranian government is once again at a critical juncture, facing the challenge of protecting its non-state ally, Hezbollah. Drawing on its past experiences, Iran is likely to pursue a similar approach to the one it adopted during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war and the south Lebanon conflict. This strategy allows Iran to maintain its influence in the region, while avoiding the disastrous consequences of a direct conflict with Israel and its Western allies” I can see this side and whilst I do not agree on this stance coming, I can clearly see that it will a likely output. To thwart this setting and steer the Arabian peninsula towards a larger shaped stability, Israel would gain a lot by pounding Hezbollah back to the stone age (as expressions go). So in the line of “Always know if the juice is worth the squeeze” there are two sides deciding this. Make the fruit smaller and weaken the squeezing hand. These two settings will end the ‘reign’ of Iran over Hezbollah and that is what is needed. Iran is playing a dangerous game going all the way back to June 2023. The attack of 7 October 2023 took time, there were training flights, there were preparations and Iran was the assisting hand since before day one. That is the side that the media ignores, that is the side that was in the open and the allies (say friends) of Israel never saw this coming? The writer (Dr. Majid Rafizadeh) brings a good case I fully agree with him, yet my (non-informed) side has issues. You see Iran has been doing this for at least 18 years and I think that more people should be in the know on this. I wonder how many people are ‘dissuading’ people due to the crude oil loophole I discussed in ‘Is it merely political?’ on October 6th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/10/06/is-it-merely-political/) I wonder how many stakeholders get fed of that premise? I do not know, but the need for greed and ‘hand outs’ make this a much bigger issue than you think and that is not good. Because it allows Iran to play the same dangerous game for much too long. Agree or disagree as you see fit, but ask your self the question. ‘How is Iran playing this game for this long and the media isn’t up to speed?’ It is nice to blame the media, but the fact that they didn’t report on many occasions makes their hands tainted as I see it, and they also refrained to expose several stake holders in the process. How does that hit you?

And a mere 50 minutes ago we see the the Washington Post give us: ’Israel strikes southern Beirut; U.S. demands restraint in Lebanon, aid for Gaza’, I wonder what they didn’t report on, because that part needs to be exposed as well. The added text “Separately, the administration gave Israel a month to improve humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip, warning it could otherwise take punitive steps, including withholding military aid”, the Times of Israel gives us IDF data shows over 26,000 rockets fired at Israel. My small question becomes “What was the cost of that?” If a rocket costs a mere $100,000, than Hamas kept a little over 2.6 billion out of the mouths of Palestinians and that is merely 2023. As such Hezbollah also fired missiles, The group reportedly has up to 40,000 ballistic missiles with ranges between 160 and 300 kilometres, What were those costs? As such how could Iran pay for it all? Both Hamas and Hezbollah did not pay top dollar for that, so what was the hand out by Iran? In 1976 we got the phrase “Follow the money”, it comes from the movie ‘All the presidents men’, as I see it Bob Woodward really screwed the media over with that one (me, laughing out loud), oh, and he was involved with the Washington Post for some time. So who trailed the Iranian money?

Have a great day.

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October 13, 2024 · 18:01

What is real?

That is at times the question. There was an image on LinkedIn (see below) and I had taken notice of it. Yet today on LinkedIn we were given a rather large recruiting drive which seems odd, but it doesn’t need to be. The line “Amazon plans to cut 14,000 manager positions by 2025” directly opposes the recruitment drive on which 150 people applied for (as a presented fact).

We see all the big boys dumping staff around 120,000 of them and the others are planning to dump a significant amount of people (numbers unknown). One of them I know ‘personally’, it is the Swedish telecom company Telia. We were given a month ago “Swedish carrier Telia is set to cut 3,000 jobs this year as part of cost reduction measures. The proposed cuts would equate to around 15 percent of its workforce, and deliver annual savings of 2.6 billion Swedish crowns ($253 million), the operator said today (September 4)” the larger issue is not that they are dwindling down staff, a 15% decrease is significant. It is the other side of the coin that I cannot see at the moment. That 15% might be all over the place, but the turnover is that a company with 15% less staff tends to have issues all over the board. Perhaps it works out, perhaps not. But the issue that I see with 3,000 persons saving them 2.6 billion Swedish crowns is a more significant issue. You see that amounts to a personal saving of 866K per person and no one in Sweden makes that much (well almost no one) this means that Telia is downsizing a lot, as such we need to take a look at “As of 2023, the company had a market share of roughly 31.5 percent” This implies (implied does not mean factual) that Telia is downsizing a few more branches and that now leads us to a much larger setting. Another source on this gives us “I envisage that this intended approach will not only result in a Telia that is simpler and faster in decision-making and commercial execution, but also help us to grow our business and generate enough cash so that we can make necessary investments and cover our dividend, as we remain committed to our dividend policy” I feel uneasy on this. Especially the statement “we remain committed to our dividend policy”, now this might (and likely is) merely me, but it could also mean that Sweden is ripe for players like STC (Saudi Telecom Company) and Huawei (Ren Zhengfei) to take up the baton to wave a much larger change in Europe. I expect that Huawei might show links to China Telecom (a speculation, not a fact). You see, as these companies all dwindle down, these staff members (requiring a job) might be a nice niche for these two players. Saudi’s STC is already in Europe “Saudi Telecommunication Company’s subsidiary TAWAL officially began operations in Europe in August of that year. In September 2023, it was announced STC Group had acquired a 9.9% stake in the Madrid-headquartered multinational telecommunications company, Telefónica, S.A..” When you consider this stage, and Sweden is the next target, Finland and Norway are not far away. I saw some data on STC entering Slovenia (might have been Slovakia) and that puts the option of Poland on the table, at that point Saudi Arabia has a clear path from the South of Europe all to the far north. And with that on the road, Huawei will have negated a much larger win, it took them some time but with this in place America is out of the race in Europe. All that bantering of fear mongers (never showing any evidence) and now these players will succumb to a much larger setting. Mind you, I am speculating. I have no evidence of this. And when we consider that IBM and Cisco are also on the list, the internet overhaul could become a lot larger. We say ‘it won’t get this far’ but the stage where they could be replaced by other players There is a Chinese version of Cisco (not sure how that words), but the stage becomes that Huawei and STC would have a clear path taking over servicing the European population of 449 million people in the EU. It is what I would attempt to do and America losing 120,000 people to ‘streamlining’ businesses will not help. So what happens next? Well if this impacts Telecom in Europe, especially a well maintained network, America will lose more and more and now they have no data to look into, that implies that Google, Meta and Microsoft will get less data and that will hinder their actions in the long run as well, especially as the Department of Justice is seeking to slice and dice Google. In that setting Huawei and their Harmony OS NEXT will get a great option and as that vibrates through the Middle East and Asia, Huawei will get the sweetest revenge on America to start. In this setting (as I personally see it) Germany and France will soon count the chickens they have and the eggs coming from this setting. I feel that Germany will turn first, but that might merely be my view on the matter. 

What is a given is that this is merely a setting as I see it (optionally very wrong), but as Saudi Arabia via BRICS makes more inroads into Europe, America will essentially lose these income streams. And that is the beginning of the end for America and its $35,000,000,000,000 debt. There is every consideration that more then 20% loss of revenue implies that America can no longer pay the interest bill. A setting I saw coming a mile away (5 years ago), so I do not see any hindrance to this scenario (which doesn’t make it correct).

And in all this China is seeking ‘revenge’ on the accusations America spouted and Saudi Arabia is aiming to become a technology hub and they are well underway to make that so.

So in this day and age of redundancies, there is a larger group of people almost desperate to find a new gig and there these two players can find all kinds of people ready and willing to give their new employer the best that they had. Will it be so? Time will tell. 

I want to congratulate Vancouver as they join us on this Sunday and the rest on having an equally fine day.

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October 9, 2024 · 01:07

When the credit card stops

That is the setting for the US of A. The BBC gives us ‘US debt would increase under Harris and soar under Trump – study’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce81g9593dro). We are given that there is basically no escape for America, I have articles going back to 2018 where I give sight of what is coming. Oh, and by the way at what point do you cancel someones credit card? We are given “Donald Trump’s campaign proposals would increase the US national debt by double the amount Kamala Harris’s would, according to a new analysis by a non-partisan group.” We are also given “Trump would add $7.5tn” now consider that the interest on this would be around 450 billion, just on the increase alone. Now consider that the total debt is 500% larger and now consider that the US economy needs to come up 2.25 Trillion EACH YEAR to deal with the interest alone and I saw that coming 5 years ago and the news media and these so called financial experts never saw this? I do not believe this. We were all told and presented a story. And they are about to lose whatever leeway they thought they could hang over us. The media was the tool some were able to use (with what I speculatively see) as stake holders to ‘bring’ the presentation. And the media seemingly was left in the dark, or were they?

The problem is that we cannot see or prove any of this. But consider that I saw this coming for over 5 years and I do NOT have an economic degree. What makes you think that I am more clever than these financial wizard in the media (CNN, BBC, WSJ, the Guardian) and many more? Do you really think that they made a miscalculation? They isn’t nickel and dime stuff, this is about 35 trillion dollars. How much sneaky bookkeeping is involved to put such an amount under the tables? This would require the cooperation of media, banks and governments. So when your retirement falls away, who will you blame? The media? The Banks? The Governments? Seems ludicrous, almost some crazy conspiracy. But consider the facts. Consider the evidence and the avoidance of the media to address certain economic facts. That is not some cooky setting, the evidence is out there on the internet. Consider all the media and consider what the media never gave us. I can tell you more, but it is time to consider what I am telling you here and make your own mind up. 

Now consider that the EU had six trillion euros in taxable revenue in 2022. Now we see that America is optionally about to increase its debt more that the taxable income of 27 countries and it does not raise an issue? Now we know that plenty of EU countries have a GDP that equals an apple and an egg. But together they should amount to a fair amount considering that these countries have a total population of 449.2 million, which is a lot more than America (about 34%). Now consider that people pay taxation, companies pay taxation as well. But the tax breaks are mostly for companies. As such I look at the people. There is a baseline that extremely roughly applies and when that baseline is applied the numbers do not match up as I personally see it and I have seen this setting for over 5 years and the media ignores it all. 

Could I be wrong?
Yes definitely, but overall certain numbers create levels of equilibrium and I see that these numbers aren’t here at the moment. And the media seeing these debt levels fail them could also be seen as optional evidence. So how does it work? It seems clear that the media can no longer be trusted (in my opinion). So how to get the numbers? I cannot give you my sources, so you are a little on your own in that regard.

Have a great day.

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September 28, 2024 · 00:09

The partial view that is seen

This partial view comes from the BBC. When I looked at the article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz04depp2nro) the headline gave us ‘Can diplomacy bring Middle East ceasefire? Early signs don’t bode well’ it was the second part of the headline that woke me up. We are given “What they meant was they saw getting an agreement from key European countries and Arab states, led by Washington, as a big diplomatic achievement during the current explosive escalation. But this was world powers calling for a ceasefire – not a ceasefire itself.” It holds part of the problem I see. We also get “The statement urges both Israel and Hezbollah to stop fighting now, using a 21-day truce, “to provide space” for further mediated talks. It then urges a diplomatic settlement consistent with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – adopted to end the last Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, which was never properly implemented. It also calls for agreement on the stalled Gaza ceasefire deal.” The first part that got to me was “United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – adopted to end the last Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, which was never properly implemented” There were ‘signals’ that were seemingly ignored. “It was unanimously approved by the United Nations Security Council on 11 August 2006. The Lebanese cabinet unanimously approved the resolution on 12 August 2006. On the same day, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that his militia would honor the call for a ceasefire. He also said that once the Israeli offensive stops, Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on Israel would stop. On 13 August the Israeli Cabinet voted 24–0 in favour of the resolution, with one abstention. The ceasefire began on Monday, 14 August 2006 at 8 AM local time, after increased attacks by both sides.” Now we ‘see’ the message that the resolution (1701) was never properly implemented. It has been basically 18 years. So what wasn’t properly implemented? Why do we see this now after 18 years? My issue is that there are a number of issues, and there are more players than Israel and Hezbollah/Hamas involved. The journalists taking a back seat to whatever digital dollars they are trying to get. The second are the politicians, both the involved and those connected. So why did we not see the repeated messages (via the media) to state who is was lacking in implementation and why?

So there is more than the early signs. As I personally see it there is a lack of follow up in these cases. 

We then get “intensive diplomacy led by Washington has failed to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas, with the US currently blaming a lack of “political will” by Hamas and Israel. Meanwhile, the US has continued to arm Israel. That doesn’t inspire confidence that Washington and its allies can now strong-arm Israel and Hezbollah into a quick truce, especially given the fighting on the ground, the intensity of Israel’s air strikes and last week’s explosive pager attacks on Hezbollah, which has continued to fire into Israel.” The part that I do not agree with is “a lack of “political will” by Hamas and Israel.” My issue is that (possibly) both players here have seen a massive lack of commitment from several sides. The very first is given through “United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – adopted to end the last Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, which was never properly implemented” I cannot tell who dropped the ball first, or which players lacked in their ‘commitments’ but there were players who failed (optionally merely Hezbollah and/or Israel), the simple setting taking us back 18 years as well as the fact that nowadays media (this last decade) is more driven to chase digital dollars then the news. That gives doubt to how far this thing goes. And it goes beyond the Lebanese borders. The setting that exists with Gaza is still evolving. The US administration, as well as the EU have been playing these settings fast and loose is a dangerous setting and these players are no longer regarded as reliable. That becomes the ball game. Mediation only works when the mediator or mediators are no longer trusted, no ceasefire will ever work. 

It is my speculation, one I had for many years is, that the EU and the USA have been playing a dangerous game, optionally staged towards ‘a one step tactic from destabilisation’ and in this the games that Iran is playing do not help and now that it all goes to (assumed) shit, no amount of ceasefire prays will offer any decent insight into any resolution. So the ‘early signs don’t bode well’ is to be expected. That is clear, is it not? 

If you wonder what can be done I am, like many others at a loss for words or advice. The problem is that too many player have had their own agenda in mind. That is less speculation, more presumption. In this I call for the first piece of evidence “United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – adopted to end the last Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, which was never properly implemented” and the evidence is that in 1982 I worked for the United Nations Security Council, and they have failed to keep the audience (as far as I know) properly informed for 18 years? So what good were they? I understand that they do not inform the audience, but they do report, usually governments, and this gets to the media one way or another. As such I see a massive failure in play. And you wonder why either Israel or Hezbollah has issues with either (or both) America and the EU? I wonder if this setting is not better served by mediation through a joined council of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and USA. The USA is essential to get Israel on board. I doubt that they will accept merely the other three parties but that is merely my speculation in this.

So as I just sailed into the night of Saturday, have a great day and as Vancouver is trailing us by 17 hours. I can report to them that nothing is happening at 00:03. Have a great day, wherever you are.

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