Tag Archives: Saudi Arabia

November 16, 2024 · 13:33

Is it a public service

There is a saying (that some adhere to). How often can you slap a big-tech company around for it to be regarded as personal pleasure instead of a public service? There is an answer, but I am not the proper source of that (and I partially disagree). Slapping Microsoft around tends to be a public service no matter how you slice it. Perhaps some people at 92, NE 36th St, Redmond, WA 98052 might start seeing this as their moment to clean up that soiled behemoth. Anyway this all started actually yesterday. I saw an article and I put it next to me. I had other ideas (like actual new IP ideas), but the article was still there this morning and I gave it another look.

The article (at https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366615892/Microsoft-UAE-power-deal-at-centre-of-US-plan-for-AI-supremacy) gives us ‘Microsoft UAE power deal at centre of US plan for AI supremacy’ was hilarious for two reasons. The first is one that academics can agree on There is not (yet) such a setting like AI (Artificial Intelligence) and personally I am smirking at the idea that Microsoft can actually spell the word correctly (howl of deriving laughter by silly old me). And the start of the article gives us “Microsoft has struck an artificial intelligence (AI) energy deal with United Arab Emirates (UAE) oil giant ADNOC after a year of extraordinary diplomacy in which it was the vehicle for a US strategy to prevent a Chinese military tech grab in the Gulf region.” In this I am having the grinning setting that this is one way to give oil supremacy to Aramco and that is merely the beginning of it. And the second was the line “a US strategy to prevent a Chinese military tech grab in the Gulf region” and it is my insight that this is a clicking clock. One tick, one tock leading to one mishap and Microsoft pretty much gives the store to China. And with that Aramco laughingly watches from the sidelines. There is no if in question. This becomes a mere shifting timeline and with every day that timeline becomes a lot more worrying. Now the fist question you should ask is “Could he be wrong?” And the answer is yes, I could be wrong. However the past settings of Microsoft shows me to be correct. And in this all, the funny part to see is that with the absence of AI, the line “a plan to become an AI superpower” becomes folly (at the very least). There are all kinds of spins out there and most are ludicrous. But several sources state “There are several reasons why General AI is not yet a reality. However, there are various theories as to what why: The required processing power doesn’t exist yet. As soon as we have more powerful machines (or quantum computing), our current algorithms will help us create a General AI” or to some extent. Marketing the spin of AI does not make it so. And Quantum computing is merely the start. Then we get the shallow circuit setting and as I personally call it the trinary operating system. You see, all computing is binary and the start of trinary is there. Some Dutch scientist was able to prove the trinary particle (the Ypsilon particle). You see that set in a real computing environment is the goal (for some). The trinary system creates the setting of a achievable real AI. The trinary system has for phases NULL, TRUE, FALSE and BOTH. It is the both part that binary systems cannot do yet, as such any deeper machine learning system is flawed by human interference (aka programming and data errors because of it). This is the timeline moment where we see the folly of Microsoft (et al). 

So then we get to “It also entrenches Microsoft’s place at the crux of the environmental crisis, pledging to help one of the world’s largest oil firms use AI to become a net-zero producer of carbon emissions, while getting help in return in building renewable energy sources to feed the unprecedented demand that the data-centres powering its AI services have for electricity.” OK, not much to say against. This is a business opportunity nicely worded by Microsoft. these are realistic goals that Deeper Machine Learning could do, but that pesky setting gets the novel approach where people (programmers) need to make calls and a call made in the name of AI, still doesn’t make that so. As such when that data error is found, the learning algorithms will need to be retrained. How much time lag does that give? And make no mistake ADNOC will not tolerate these level of errors. It amounts to billions a day and the oil business is cut throat. So when I state that Aramco is sitting on the sideline howling, I was not kidding. That is how I see this develop. Then we get “The same paradox was played out at the COP 28 climate conference in Dubai last December, while Microsoft prepared to ink a $1.5bn investment in UAE state-owned AI and data-centre conglomerate G42, where Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC oil chief, chaired a global agreement to ditch fossil fuels.” This is harder to oppose. It is pretty much an agreement between two parties. However I wonder how the responsibilities of Microsoft are voiced, because it will hang on that and perhaps Microsoft slipped one by ADNOC, but that is neither here or there. You don’t become chief of ADNOC without protecting that company so without the papers I cannot state this will get Microsoft in hot waters. However, I am certain that any boast towards ‘miscommunication’ will hand the stables, the farm and the livestock (aka oil) right in the hands of China. You see, people will focus on the $1.5 billion investment by Microsoft, yet I wonder how much (or how long) the errors are unspotted. That will be an error that could result into billions a day lost and that is something that Microsoft is unlikely to survive. Then there is the third player. You see America angered China with the steps they have taken in the past. And I have no doubt that China will be keeping an eye on all this and whilst some might want to ‘hide’ mishaps. China will be at the forefront of illuminating these mistakes. And these mistakes will rear their ugly heads. They always do and the track record of Microsoft is not that great (especially when millions scrutinise your acts). As such this is a like standing on a hill where the sand is kept stable on a blob of oil, until someone walks that it merely seems stable, the person walking there became the instability of it all. Not the most eloquent expression, but I think it works and Microsoft have been trodding too much already and now China feels grieved (not sure it is a valid feeling) but for China it matters and getting Microsoft to fail will be their only target. Well, that is it all from me and looking at how this will go, I have a nice amount of popcorn ready to watch two players slug it out. In the meantime Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber has merely one thought “Did I deserve what I about to unfold?” And I can’t answer that because it is depending on the papers he co-signed and I never saw these papers, so I cannot give an honest response to that.

Let’s see how this fight unfolds on the media, enjoy your day wherever you are (it is still Friday west of Ireland).

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November 16, 2024 · 03:27

One step left for a new world

That hit me a moment ago. You see, 6 days ago I wrote ‘The easy lesson’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/11/09/the-easy-lesson/) it was an idea that could aid Apple in propelling their Apple Vision Pro, the idea hit me a week ago and now I see a few more angles to this. If Epic Games (makers of Unreal Engine 5.4) get a translation system online. It could propel the Apple Vision Pro even further. Areas like Tourism, Theme parks and even larger attractions could be visited, or seen in different ways.

I saw one side, then another and another. Apple seems to overlooked this, but the setting in high end tourism is easily made and the more are set to multiple sides it could boost Apple in several ways. As I see it, should Epic Games make the jump to make an engine that translates Unreal Engine 5 to a system that could be fed into the visionOS operating system. Apple would enjoy the upsizing, but in equal measure Apple and the game developers could get an entire new population to their translated games. We all know (or have heard of) “spatial computing experiences”, but how to set that? I saw the options about 4 years ago, not as the Vision Pro, but in other ways. And now I see that the Apple solution could work there too. And once this is going I reckon that Meta with its goggles would soon follow. The hard part is to make it work and not a simple figment of an idea that is nice or one title. This is why Apple needs to talk to Epic Games. The unreal engine would be central for conversion. We merely think of the Unreal Engine as a gaming system. But imagine that The game Assassins Creed 2, or Origin gets upgraded to Unreal Engine 5.4 and after that we get the translator to get the spatial system fed into visionOS. Consider that the spatial system let us walk through Florence, Venice, Rome and even Egypt (AC Origin) or Bagdad (AC Mirage), from there we could use it to teach us Latin, Greek, Italian, Baghdadi Arabic, Egyptian. It allows the goggles (to avoid confusion with glassware) to show us how it was then. It could also in a more frontal view of the Horizon games. To see the Thunderjaw next to you (a separate discussion). Once these systems are created the avalanche will build up and here Ubisoft has a distinct advantage through titles. So how long until the Vatican wakes up? And from there tourism gets a larger slice of this approach. And lets be fair, wouldn’t you walk through the streets of the cities we saw in the Assassins Creed games? See the machines in the Horizon games, or learn the languages of days gone by? The learning ability that is part of something bigger. A massively wild idea and perhaps contemplated by some. However, I cannot find anything in this direction at present. All options for at least two systems and if I had my way (I seldom do) there is even another side to the options I gave to the Saudi government. A way to propel the Saudi way of life to a much larger population. And now I see that the Apple Vision Pro device could do this even more so. 

It is not a step forward, it is a step to the left (or right) and it enhances the overall setting. It doesn’t replace it. A simple idea that others didn’t have (or rejected). I wonder how many considered this to be a futuristic path to learning languages? 

It has been Saturday for 3.5 hours now. Vancouver has a decent amount of Friday to do before it is here too. Have a great day.

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November 11, 2024 · 18:19

The unspoken truth

That is a setting we relish and fear. There is no escaping it. When some people relish the setting of total freedom, they also fear how some people might abuse that same level of freedom. We applaud the freedom of speech, but we also fear the people that abuse it, like ‘Just Stop Oil’ for example. There was an advertisement the other day. The setting was an art exhibit and two “oilers” step up to defile a work of art. Then we see a middle aged man walk up to them and shoot them in the head, a simple execution. And for a lot of them (including me) there was a sense of calm, a satisfying feeling. These abusers of ‘freedom’ were dealt with. The future innocent art was saved. The art defilers were dealt with. That is the consequence of ‘freedom of speech’, you need to be held accountable. It refers to the very beginning of my blog. On June 19th 2012 I wrote ‘The accountability act – 2015’ in this I wrote “Why 2015? Well an act like this does not grow out of a goose feather and ink jar over night. If we think of a law that could make a real change, and would be a real stop to some of the acts of greed, then it will take time and a lot of effort too.” I gave the powers that could be 3 years to get their act together. As far as I know they never did. And this reverts to a new case, an act that happened that happened on 7 October 2023. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4vw1l8xvdo) gave us ‘Gaza’s top Islamic scholar issues fatwa criticising 7 October attack’ where we see “Professor Dr Salman al-Dayah, a former dean of the Faculty of Sharia and Law at the Hamas-affiliated Islamic University of Gaza, is one of the region’s most respected religious authorities, so his legal opinion carries significant weight among Gaza’s two million population, which is predominantly Sunni Muslim.” 

The world no matter how it is tweaked by the greed driven need for digital dollars, has had enough of the media at large. There is a (seemingly) staged setting that the world of Sunni Islam is seeing the fallout the world is having. It is happening in nearly all countries in the world. Shia Islam has embraced Terrorism in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Gaza (Hamas) and Yemen (Houthi) and the world is basically fed up with this path. Now we see the BBC story and there is a chance that Sunni Islam is isolating Shia Islam and this stage could be used to isolate and invalidate Iran. So as we are given “A fatwa is a non-binding Islamic legal ruling from a respected religious scholar usually based on the Quran or the Sunnah – the sayings and practices of the Prophet Muhammad. Dr Dayah’s fatwa, which was published in a detailed six-page document, criticises Hamas for what he calls “violating Islamic principles governing jihad”.” There is a chance that the Gazan population have had enough of Hamas to the larger degree and this paper might push them to the curve of decisions. Lets see the impact On October 10th we were given “An estimated 75,000 tonnes of explosives have been dropped on Gaza with experts predicting it could take years to clear the debris amounting to more than 42 million tonnes, which is also rife with unexploded bombs. Gaza’s Media Office estimates direct damage caused by Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip at $33bn.” Now as I personally see it, the Gaza Media Office is not impartial and their data is debatable. But we also get from Unitar on September 30th we were given “Those 66% of damaged buildings in the Gaza Strip account for 163,778 structures in total. This includes 52,564 structures that have been destroyed, 18,913 severely damaged, 35,591 possibly damaged structures and 56,710 moderately affected.” I feel that this needs to be scrutinised to a much larger degree. The media uses it for digital dollars, they are willing to obfuscate the data as much as they can, but clarity could resolve a lot of issues and Dr Dayah’s fatwa could be a first step to do just that. For the people in Gaza it is imperative that they get clarity. Hamas will not give that. How many people were living in these 163,788 buildings? And this Fatwa was the one thing Iran did not count on. The Iranians are in a bind. They opened the door for Israel to attack them directly, attack their oil reserves. The oil reserves enable the terrorist acts of Iran and when these are gone Iran is in a stale mate with no option but to handover all they thought they gained. The first being the isolation of three terrorist organisation. It will isolate Iran to the largest of degrees and with that gone so do their ‘allies’ China, India and Russia. Russia might hold on as they have other needs, but without oil India and China are pretty much out. It is my personal view on the matter, however this could start a new wave. One that invalidates Iran and give the stability and powers for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to create a new foundation of stability. And lets be clear (and optionally honest) do you really want Iran, the country that embraced terrorism for decades to the largest degree at that table?

This is the setting we are pushed into and lets all hope that it works out for the best. Have a great Monday.

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November 8, 2024 · 21:00

All the way from Ottawa

Yup, that was the question mark that I had. I saw it at the CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/guilbeault-china-saudi-arabia-climate-1.7376007) where we get ‘China, Saudi Arabia should pay up to help the planet cope with climate change: Guilbeault’ OK, I like my sarcasm with plenty of Maple Syrup (a personal choice). A wholesome breakfast as it says. We are given “Guilbeault wants emerging economies to contribute to a new climate goal”. This sounds nice on paper, but it doesn’t hold the pastrami. I feel uneasy as the idea sounds nice, but it seems to have all kinds of unforeseen complications. And as we consider “Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said Wednesday he wants China and Saudi Arabia to contribute money to international efforts to help poorer countries struggling with the worst effects of climate change.” You know, America and Europe take its own share of decades of looting in wealth the established setting of the commodity of oil. Oh, and why give OPEC and China that bill? Where is Am Erica for that bill? I am pretty sure that some president of the US give Steven Guilbeault the finger the moment he states that out loud. There is a larger setting. You see, we could decrease the allowed oil for any nation by 10%, then there is my favourite, decrease global flights by 15% (taken in account that there are way too many flights happening). You see, the last 15 years we have seen a million flights per year more. I did a calculation once (in 2021) where I stated “That amounts to 41,000 flights a day, every single day.” I did this on November 13th 2021 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/11/13/a-cop26-truth/) in ‘A COP26 truth’ As I see it, this will have a better result. But Steven Guilbeault does not want that. He merely want to point the finger at China (to get the blessing of some president), he’ll also point the finger at Saudi Arabia which will not go anywhere. As I personally see it, this is a limelight piece. Get the shiny lights thrust upon him whilst the solution goes nowhere, and those poor poor emerging economies? Ad when we consider ““China will become, in fact, one of the biggest historic polluters in the coming years,” Guilbeault said.” What data does he have? In the coming years is speculation, as I see it, Russia will have to become a much larger polluter to get any fingers over the edge of disaster at present. There is no real data to consider that China will be anything like that. I wonder where he got the data, as the ‘data’ in march gave us all “India was declared as the third-most polluted country in 2023, after Bangladesh and Pakistan, according to a report released by Swiss air quality monitoring body, IQAir.” Which is interesting as they have a significant loss of longevity They went from eight position in 2022 to third position in 2023. Of that list of 50 cities 42 are in India. As such I call his bluff and wish him a nice day with what he has. Yes something needs to be done, pretty much everyone agrees with that. What it is, remains the question. Giving the Ace of Spades to China and Saudi Arabia is folly as I see it. The issue with any fire is to take away the air for a fire to breath, take away the fuel that propels the fire or put out the fire (the third is the lamest idea). As such you can limit oil to everyone, which will drive the price up, or take away the air for oil to burn (extremely hazardous to people). As such we are in a bind. Making this about emerging economies is just a bad option, or we lessen EVERYONE’S access to oil and the the emerging countries get their 100% and the largest economies get that limit decrease as well. I wonder how long it will take for everyone to ‘diminish’ the emerging economies. You see Steven Guilbeault blasted his statement to ‘merely’ include China and Saudi Arabia. In 2021 the United States used 20.4% of the petroleum-consuming countries it was number one with 5% more then number 2 (China), as such why didn’t Steven Guilbeault mention America? Oh, and Saudi Arabia isn’t even in that top 5. India (4.8%), Russia (3.8%) and Japan (3.5%) had those positions. As such it makes kinda sense to hand the spade to China, but not before America gets the spade as well. They both Amount to 36.1% of the petroleum-consuming countries. As such, when you consider these numbers. Is he anything more than a windy politician (like the ones from Chicago)?

It’s not all seemingly bad news. We are also given “According to one estimate, $2.4 trillion US in climate finance is needed by 2030 for investments to meet the Paris Agreement targets and related development goals.” Yes, that works with any nation with a gross federal debt surpassing $35,000,000,000,000. That really seemingly works and don’t blame President-elect Trump for that, Harris wouldn’t have been able to do that either. This is the result of sitting on your hands and too many presidents have done that going all the way back to President Clinton, which was 21 years ago. The easiest option is that we allow climate change to kill 27.8% of the population, making the decrease of 49,000 flights a day and 24.1% less oil used a manageable achievement. You see, the solution is very simple if you see the problem as simple as an arithmetic problem. Take away the people using oil and you get the same result. Oh, as a bonus consider that less food is required at that point. All simple solutions towards a conundrum that people aren’t willing to see as a real problem. Did I oversimplify the problem for you?

Have a lovely day and consider how much oil you used this week. 

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November 7, 2024 · 20:15

What are we doing?

This question bothered me a lot lately. Not some message about an orange menace, or some Kardashian piece of jewellery that once belonged to royalty. No that doesn’t wake me up (or interest me). But in this light we have two articles. In the first we get the main event. Arab News informs us (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2578351) ‘Saudi Arabia’s aid arrives in northern Gaza to assist Palestinians’ and the issue is none of the western media as far as I can tell have this news, and it is news. 

Source: Arab News

We are given (with images) that “Several trucks with aid, provided by Saudi Arabia’s humanitarian agency KSrelief, have arrived in the northern Gaza Strip via Jordan.” We are also given “The aid was scheduled to be distributed through the Saudi Center for Culture and Heritage, which serves as the executive partner of KSrelief in the area.” As well as “The campaign to assist Palestinians, initiated by King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has raised over $186.3 million from over 2 million donors” the idea that 2 million Saudi’s create a wealth setting for humanitarian relief to the amount of nearly 200 million dollars giving us that the average donation by Saudis comes down to nearly $100 dollars and it isn’t just a trickle, this comes down to a little over 5% of the entire nation’s population. When did we see in the west that amount of humanitarian aid? When we see this numbers the entire western media should have stood up applauding this effort. I have a tainted view of Gaza (and I have been there in 1982), so there is premise to my point of view. What I fail to see is how the media is so tainted that news is filtered out (I personally refer to that stage as corrupt). 

Even I (with my own clear bundle of personal issues) pause to stop and realise that this is a monumental setting. We already saw that the UAE is dealing with shortages in Lebanon (vie the Khaleej Times) and now this? And the western media is currently too tainted to be of any informative acts. No the Guardian is simply washing this over by giving us (at https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/nov/07/chris-hemsworth-criticised-abu-dhabi-tourism-ad-uae-ntwnfb) ‘Chris Hemsworth criticised over tourism ad promoting Abu Dhabi despite ‘notorious’ human rights violations’ and the Guardian (other news outlets too) are always seeking the Human rights violations. It is never about just the acts of influencers showing the world that there is a lot more to Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. In this setting it is about  Abu Dhabi, which my meagre self calls the domain of ADNOC and the Abu Dhabi Scorpions (a previous hockey team for the uninformed). Abu Dhabi also has Ferrari World, Warner Brothers World, Yas Water World, SeaWorld Abu Dhabi, Prison Island Abu Dhabi and a few other ways to spend your hard earned free times. Like shopping in the Yas Mall with 235,000 m2 (2.5 million sq ft) of shopping spanning over 400 shops. As such Abu Dhabi might not be Dubai, but it has plenty to offer and they called the assistance of Chris Hemsworth and his wife Elsa Pataky to help out (Luke Hemsworth is probably still too young). So when we get to “The international non-governmental advocacy organisation Human Rights Watch (HRW) has said the UAE “invests in a strategy to paint the country as progressive, tolerant, and rights-respecting while carrying out repression against dissent”.” Personally I would advice the HRW to go and f**k a camel but that would be inappropriate towards the camel.

So see the articles and consider what else we are missing (apart from the budget to go see Abu Dhabi in person). Within the last week (might have ben two) I showed two cases of astounding humanitarian aid (the HRW missed that part I reckon). Are nations innocent? Well I doubt it, the discriminations that we saw in Florida against the LGTBQ population is one, but the HRW seemingly missed that part too. We have flaws, we all do, but the black washing (the opposite of white washing) of the media is as I see it now getting out of hand. 

As such I wonder what people tend to see and I am curious about the Hemsworth advertisement, perhaps it is on YouTube?

In a time where we disregard and mistrust nearly everything, it is time that the people in the western world regard the Arabian media (namely Arab News, Al Arabiya and the Khaleej Times). There is something seriously wrong in media world and it is time that we take away our view from them and the digital dollars they are whoring for. 

On a personal note, this morning I completed the virtual challenge of walking from Florence to Rome, the walk Saint Francis of Assisi did a few hundred years ago. The challenge was virtual, but the walk (503 km) was very real.

Have a great day.

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November 6, 2024 · 00:24

iRan is not an Apple product

There is a larger setting in the world (predominantly the middle east). We are given by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3yqzx72zno) ‘Iran’s supreme leader says enemies will receive ‘crushing response’’. I left it to the left at first (three days ago) for the reason that the entire Iran debacle is like hauling water to the sea. Where the text starts with “The US and Israel “will definitely receive a crushing response”, Iran’s supreme leader has said, following an Israeli attack on Iran a week ago.” It sounds nice, but Iran is limited to deliver attacks through terrorist fractions. It is too scared to attack directly. In the beginning it was about deniability, but that is gone now and Iran is on the verge of be labelled “a terrorist nation” by pretty much all nations. And it is scared of that as such it is trying to kiss up to Antonio Guterres. Yet Israel decided on October 13th “Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz reinforced on Sunday his decision to declare U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres persona non grata over what he described as a failure to condemn Iran’s missile attack and antisemitic and anti-Israel conduct.” There are other nations thinking that Guterres has outlived its usefulness as a UN tool (I speculate that Ukraine is one of them). So when we see the BBC give us “The threat comes as Iran assesses whether and how to respond to Israel’s attack last month, that Iran said killed four soldiers, which was in retaliation for an Iranian missile attack against Israel earlier in October.” There is only so much Iran can get away with and whilst the US is begging to leave the oil fields alone (they get a slice of that revenue I reckon). Iran is now losing whatever options they had. As I see it Robert F. Worth said it best “‘The Iranian Period Is Finished’. Hezbollah’s losses have led some in Lebanon to imagine a future without it.” You see Hamas might seen shelter behind civilian bodies there, but Hezbollah is merely a small part of the 5.5 million population and Israel has had enough. 

Now that U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has been called a persona non grata, the options for the UN will diminish a lot more and Hezbollah has none left. Their only option is for Iran to engage in a full scale war and Iran is hesitant to do so. With the attacks on Saudi Arabia (via Houthi proxy) they only stand the smallest of chances if other Arabian nations support them and those nations are not willing to do that (as I personally see it). And the issue continues (and worsens). The BBC also reported “Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” is an alliance of Tehran-backed groups that include Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and well-armed groups in Iraq and Syria. Most have been designated as terrorist entities by some Western states.” Let me be clear, they merely voiced the words of Iran and there is the problem. Do you think that the BBC would have given Germany the ‘respect’ by calling it the third kingdom? (1933 – 1945) And the larger option becomes that ‘their’ axis of resistance is in shambles. The Hamas terrorists are hiding behind the population they claim to protect. Hezbollah terrorists are relying on exploding pagers and the rest of Hezbollah has no clue what to do and Houthi terrorists are in a dangerous position. Lloyds reported yesterday “Houthis’ reported to be earning an estimated $180m a month from illegal safe-transit fees paid by unnamed shipping agents to secure safe passage through the Red Sea” as well as a report from ynet news that ‘Houthis turn to social media to raise funds for war’, this tells me that they are now cash strapped and here the UN is close to useless. They might talk a nice talk but it seems to be finally falling on deaf ears. In the meantime a report a mere 15 hours ago gives us that Houthi forces are trying to align themselves with Al-Qaeda forces. This happened whilst one source gives us “the two terrorist groups agreed to put aside their differences and focus on weakening the Yemeni government” the beginning of all kinds of escalations. And that is the setting for Iran, or as the American voices state “Become Al-Qaeda’s bitch or fall alone”, I cannot vouch for that, but Iran depended on deniability and now that this is gone Iran faces the reality of going to war. So how long until that goes wrong? In all these settings the United Nations might be out of options as well (until a new CEO is elected). You see on October 24th we got to hear “UN Secretary-General António Guterres reiterated in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that his country’s on-going invasion of Ukraine violates the United Nations Charter and international law.” ‘Reiterated’? This has been going on for 10 years and now we see ‘reiterated’? I reckon that the insertion of North Korean troops is making this a larger stage. Basically it is now a world war. You see, there is no real definition, one that aligns with todays setting of “In order to qualify as a world war, at least one of three criteria must be met: the conflict takes place between multiple nations across the globe, battles are fought in many different locations, and the war must be fought against great powers with significantly advanced technology.” It now involves Russia, Ukraine and North Korea. At this point I believe that the setting of a World War is reached. You see one criteria was met and this reflects back unto Iran too. Because in this setting, Iran might be getting cozy with Russia, but Russia has its own brand of troubles and that is setting the grind in another direction. As such Iran loses whatever friends they thought they had. As such we are given “Saudi Arabia, Jordan and United Arab Emirates unite against Iran, with support from the United States.” A statement that is presumptuous, but lacks clear evidence (as I see it). It is likely to be true, but I have not seen that evidence. And in this setting Iran has two options, the first is to engage is all out war, the other is to drop the terrorist organisations Hezbollah and Houthi, leaving them to fend for themselves. 

I could be wrong but this is as I see it the political chessboard where we have three players. I would personally see a different stage where the board is used with the chess pieces of Chinese chess. It would be a decent challenge to get any player to actually win whilst the other two are hacking on the pieces and that applies to all sides in this equation. If we get a ‘dopey to dollars’ equation I reckon that Israel has a lead because Iran is about to lose two thirds of its ‘axis’ and that results in less pieces to move around and more exposure of its own pieces. And the number one weakness for Iran is that they cannot move their oil fields or oil infrastructure. That is the bottleneck for Iran, and they have less and less options for securing that financial option.

As I personally see it Iran is about to become ‘I ran’ and they now have no place to run to.  

Have a great day.

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October 29, 2024 · 15:28

Laughing Out Loud

Yup this happens too and in this case it was an article that Bloomberg showed its paying customers. I am not one of them. As such I am attaching the image that made me laugh.

I saw it about 8-10 hours ago and it had me rolling with laughter. So what gives? First the setting of ‘Consider Re-entering’ as I see it Barclays and other banks are strapped for capital and bleeding a client dry (service fees and commissions) is a tell tale story towards any bank trying to make a living. There is no consideration, there is merely the trap they put themselves in 10 years ago. As for the “capitalise on the kingdom’s growing need to access capital markets” is even more hilarious. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has options to consider HSBC, JP Morgan, Bank of America and the 5 largest banks in China. All stronger and more able than Barclays. There is also Credit Agricole and the Citigroup. All in the top 12, Barclays stands at 18. So there is the first part. In addition I can hand you Rothschild & Co. The one bank no one mentions. It’s value was around €18.1 billion a year ago, as such I reckon it is pushing well over €20 billion at present. Barclays has nowhere near that capital or those connections. I reckon that Rothschild can access around 20% more clients than Barclays can (a casual speculation by little old me). 

So why this action?
Well it started in 2012 when we were given “Barclays is fined for manipulating the benchmark Libor interest rate in 2012, after revelations stretching back to 2005” It’s CEO C. S. Venkatakrishnan didn’t forget about that, did he? Then we get 2014 when Reuters gave us ‘Barclays sued by Saudi developer for $10 billion’, so how did that end? We got “A Saudi real estate company has sued Barclays for $10 billion (6.24 billion pounds), claiming the bank ceased pursuing lease payments due from the Saudi government on military complexes in the kingdom in order to obtain a lucrative banking license there” when we were given (source: Reuters) “The company, Jadawel International, a unit of London-based MBI International Holdings Inc., claims Barclays “hatched a fraudulent scheme” to secure the rare Saudi banking license, selling out Jadawel in the process, according to the lawsuit filed in New York state Supreme Court on Tuesday” One says potato and the other claims tomato. In the end as far as I can tell Barclays won the dismissal. It doesn’t make them innocent, but the claimant could not prove guilt (as far as I can tell). And last but not least only this year we were given that Barclay was one of the players in getting Andrea Orcel “derivatives linked to Commerzbank for the Italian lender in the weeks before Berlin sold a stake earlier this month, sources familiar with the matter said. Barclays and Bank of America subsequently helped Orcel to effectively expand UniCredit’s holding in Commerzbank to the current level of about 21 per cent, they said asking not to be named discussing the private information” now, this last bit does not seem to be illegal, but the stakes against Barclay (all over Europe) are increasingly high and now they hope that Saudi Arabia gives them a chunk of business before they are forced to hand over their bank to any of the upper 15 banks. I say good luck to them. Yes there is all kinds of banking issues I am not familiar with, but governments need to work with banks that are cleaner then clean and as such I am entertaining howls of deriving laughter if Barclay thinks they are that. The LIBOR scandal took care of that. 

And lets be clear Barclay didn’t (as far as I know) hand the statement “Mistakes were made in the past and we have sanitised our structures and people to meet the challenge that a customer the size of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia brings”, nope, none of that. We were given “Barclay plc is considering re-entering Saudi Arabia as it looks to capitalise on the kingdom’s growing need to access capital markets”. I actually wonder if they would be allowed in the country at present. There are seemingly better viable candidates and that is before you consider Rothschild as a contender. 

I get it. I also tried to access Saudi Arabia as a partner (read: future owner) of my IP. I merely wanted 50 million, a Canadian passport and 2% of the revenue for 20 years. With my believe (a presented believe) that the idea would give them 6 billion annual and their investment to that would be 50 million (for happy old me). And this is about as decent as it gets. A mere 0.8% risk and that is at the time of the presentation. A mere trivial amount and I feel certain that this would have worked. There was one condition Microsoft was not allowed near it. Amazon would be OK, but Microsoft is a no go.

This is why I contacted Kingdom Holdings and Tencent Technology as well. They can drive the innovation I brought. As such I feel a stronger contender than Barclay ever could be (Yes, I am blowing my own horn).

So as I see it, re-entering a market when the others have seemingly had enough of you isn’t re-entering. It is running for the hills to avoid being taken over. But I am not a banking person, so what do I know.

Have a fun day.

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October 29, 2024 · 06:03

The telling signs

That is at times the question. What one sees is not seen by all, there is no blame or shame in this. We can’t be looking in all directions, the simplest of reasons is that life is in front of you and we tend to look at life (for most of the time). As such I saw two articles pass by, well one actually (it makes sense soon enough).

The first one was the New Arab (at https://www.newarab.com/news/saudi-arabia-starts-work-huge-gold-kaaba-style-structure) handing us ‘Saudi Arabia starts work on massive gold ‘Kaaba’ style structure despite criticism’, my first setting was the word criticism. The word comes through 5 times including the title and three times it gives us “amid criticism that it resembles the Kaaba holy site in Mecca”, which is incorrect. 

The Kaaba (as the pictures show me) is not an actual cube, I could be wrong as I have never been to Mecca for I am not a Muslim. The second setting is that the dimensions are off by a mile. This building will be 400 by 400 by 400 meters. I will hazard a guess that this structure could be seen from space, one of the few. The other part is that this would be a monumental achievement. As for the critique from social media, I let that be. I didn’t look into it and I reckon it will serve no purpose. The important setting for me (and initial worry) is seen with “The development will have retail, hospitality, leisure and office space facilities and is believed to be big enough to hold 20 Empire State Buildings in it when complete, Saudi’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) said.” You see, filling up 20 empire state building takes time and resources. That is beside the infrastructure needed. As my abacus dictates to me, that building alone would need to be fuelled and that takes at least a small nuclear reactor to do so. As I saw it there is an option if the outer walls have a second inner layer comprised of solar panels you will alleviate a lot of power requirements and even fuel more power to the city. I reckon someone looked at this at present, but it is the initial worry I see. That and getting water pumped to +400 meters. There are a few things, but the designers would have worked out these elements long before now. My mind is merely struggling with a building comprised of 64 million cubic metres. What is a fact is the massive achievements that Saudi engineers will make. A true world marvel. The previous achievement from that region was a near 5000 years ago (yes, they were the pyramids). That and the Neom structures will show the world that Saudi Arabia has made its match to anything else that was built on this planet.

I see a few other issues, but I will hold them. Not to sound stupid, but it might sound me anti-achievement and I refuse to be one of those negative people. 

I wonder how spacious it will be on the inside. You see we think in (mostly) western dimensions and from the last 10 years we have seen buildings with a different approach. As such are all floors 18 feet high? There is a lot not known and I to some extent fear knowing to much in advance, but I am still curious. The other thing I wonder about is the impact it will have. Not impact as a social need, but the houses around the Mukaab. Depending on the position of their house, the Mukaab could now shield it from the blazing sun for at least part of the day. I wonder what will happen to these places. For now, we will watch (in awe) and see over the next 5 years how that building comes together.  The other article comes later today.

Have a fun day

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October 28, 2024 · 07:43

The setting of coins

The BBC had an interesting article yesterday. I was drawn between two settings. There is nothing wrong with the article. It is a point of view and anyone has that right. My setting was that the dimensionality is wrong. Some see Iran as a wimpy weasel, others as a weaselly wimp. I think they are both at the same time. That is as far as the difference is seen. The BBC in the shape of Jeremy Bowen hands us ‘Iran faces hard choices between risks of escalation or looking weak’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2742rynqgo). I don’t think they look weak, they are weak. When you have to rely on terrorists to bring your message across, you are weak. And the setting that this brings is that a stabilising effect that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia brought was torpedoed (for a lack of a better word) by Iran. Iran is so afraid to be the trivialising party in the middle east that they rely on three terrorist entities. Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi forces. 

We are given “They must decide on the least bad of a series of difficult choices. At one end of the spectrum is hitting back with another wave of ballistic missiles. Israel has already threatened to retaliate again if that happens” And the options of a bad series of choices is ‘encouraged’ by the west. Politico brought me this month the setting of loopholes that were created to enable other players to sell Russian oil, all legal (which is why we call it a loophole), yet this wasn’t created for Russia. Russia got to exploit the loophole the west made for Iran (my presumptuous thinking). Do you really think that Iran could have played the game this long if they didn’t have that loophole?

We are then given “Iran’s official media in the hours before and after Israel’s attacks carried defiant statements that, at face value, suggest the decision to respond had already been taken. Its language resembles Israel’s, citing its right to defend itself against attack. But the stakes are so high that Iran might decide to walk its threats back” which sounds nice on paper, but the reality is that this weasel was hiding behind three terrorist organisation. Hamas has now been bombed back into the stone age and their leaders are hiding in Doha, Qatar (according to some sources). As far as I see it, Gaza did this to themselves. Hezbollah decided to rely on pagers and the top of Hezbollah basically messaged themselves to death. That is number two down. The assault was so complete that pretty much the entire top of Hezbollah blew themselves up. Who ever didn’t do this will follow soon I reckon. Then there is just the Houthi brach left. I reckon that the next 3-5 years amounts to Iran calling that branch with requests for the good of Shia Islam. Not sure how they will bring that news, but it is likely to take on that form. All the money that Iran invested would now be asked to validate through actions. Hamas has seemingly lost around 50% of its fighting force and the rest is dubious of continuing and finding real solutions for their family. Hezbollah has no top, this means that Iran needs to put advisors on the ground, or lose whatever they had left. And the Houthi’s will go in a new direction. As I personally see it, with the recruitment of child soldiers they are taking on the direction Hamas had and as some drone technology that evolved in the Ukraine, we will see soon a new frontier develop where drones can be sent to a generic location and start auto targeting a scope of realistic issues. There is every consideration that whatever drone abilities the Saudi government has will soon gain serious teeth. 

We are then given “Iran’s foreign ministry invoked its right to self defence “as enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter”. A statement said Iran believed it was both entitled and obligated to respond to foreign acts of aggression”, this sounds nice, but Iran played the terrorist card and has done so for years, which makes its statement baseless. We can see America ‘pleading’ with Israel not to hit the oil reserves and the loophole for oil makes it a desired move, but Israel has its own concerns. These terrorist actions are funded by Iran and defund their oil is a tactical move to temporary stop funding, making the tactic valid. As we see “The men in Tehran thought they had a better idea than all-out war. Instead, Iran used the allies and proxies in its so-called “axis of resistance” to attack Israel. The Houthis in Yemen blocked and destroyed shipping in the Red Sea. Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon forced at least 60,000 Israelis from their homes.” We are confronted with the harsh reality that Iran is considering extreme options and that is the final straw for Israel. They could bring to bare 125 missiles on Iranian oil fields and with that Iran will have no more options. A setting that was accelerated since 1979 comes to a stop when the oil becomes to tainted to be sold, it will be the oil that glows in the dark. And the world is fearing that moment. Too many stakeholders with their slice of pie that came from the oil loophole will end and there will be a lot of voices trying to delay this point. On the upside it would enable Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to set some solid work to make these two the solidifying hub of international cooperation on the Arabian peninsula. 

The largest question for the world will be what will Iran decide and they could find a way to make hay out of that. Because any escalation will lead to the end of Iran, a path that started 6000 years ago. It is anyones guess if the Iran of today realises that they are out of survivable options. I see three paths and two remain silent because it amounts (without evidence) to fear mongering. And I am not inclined to openly support that view. The play nice card sounds nice, but it would require Iran to disband sections of the IRGC as well as stop supporting terrorism. Will Iran see that light? When people have been on that violent streak for decades, it is hard to stop. I get that, but does Iran have any resolution left? Empty threats will not bring home the veal as they say.

Well, it’s Monday now, so have a great new day. 

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October 23, 2024 · 06:14

The tightening belt

What I foresaw is now coming to pass in more than one way. ECNS China gives us ‘Saudi Arabia aims to attract up to 5 million Chinese tourists by 2030’ there was always a shift coming and as we see it, Saudi Arabia becomes more and more driven to see what the Chinese markets can deliver. We saw this last week in the Saudi Tourism Festival held in Beijing on Oct 17, 2024. We are given “Saudi Minister of Tourism and Chairman of the Saudi Tourism Authority Ahmed Al-Khateeb said that Saudi Arabia is China-ready and welcomes all Chinese travellers with increased connectivity, customised products and strategic partnerships.” Now some of you will respond with ‘so what?’ And that might be fair in one way. But this number represents a much larger issue. As I see it, one third is goal driven tourism. People will decide on Saudi Arabia as a destination for a job, or as a cheap tourism destination. Two third will go as tourist with optional goals, but these three million tourists will go to Saudi Arabia and not to their ‘normal’ destinations. That will show in diminished numbers all over Europe (France, England, Spain and Italy) and America. These people will also attract optional tourists who will change their initial destination. The other 2 million will optionally retrench their optional ‘cheap labor’ destination from Australia and places like the Netherlands, Belgium and the nordic countries. You will think that it does not matter, but consider all these coffee places that ‘allowed’ for these people, optionally in other areas too. They will come short of their usual numbers. These tourists also spend all they earn in that country. As such there will be a shift, an initial shift that seems small but could grow over time. These 5 million will spend their money somewhere else (in Saudi Arabia) and that facilitates to more, it always does. You might not think much of this, but the Saudi job market is booming. There are (allegedly) at present a little over 10,000 jobs outstanding. A fair deal are out reach of a lot of them, but consider this job “Digital Marketing Specialist. Average Salary: SAR 9,500-35,000 per month” and consider that they have the Beijing University of Technology and over a dozen more universities where these young crackers would like to see options in their first 2 years. They have just graduated University, they have spend almost every waking hour working on digital solutions like TikTok, broadcast experience and on the other hand we see places like Huawei making waves in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These two places will see an increase of Chinese workers with an option to fulfil their dream a lot faster, so yes, Saudi Arabia will become a swing location for these people. All options that are shutting doors on Europe, Australia and America. 

We are also given “the country is preparing to launch its winter season tourism attractions, which will provide a range of experiences filled with entertainment, luxury, adventure and natural beauty, running from October to May”
Now consider that Oxagon, Trojena, Magna and Sindalah now suddenly will have a grasp of a thousand more affordable workers, bringing both a digitally active workforce as well as language skills to their regions. Yes, the cheaper groups will also infuse the wealth group from China to their shores because these people will encounter others with their language skills. As such the people who depend on these rich tourists will endure a lessened impact as they will all want to go to the newest places in Saudi Arabia. I reckon that in the 5,000,000 people will be at least 500,000 people who are beyond well-off and they will go to Saudi Arabia in the space of 2026-2028 (at least) and that is a kick to the heads of economy in the aforementioned countries. The top 1% of wealthy Chinese who are making over $80,000 are expected to spend that money in Saudi Arabia. And I am referring to the people who would have spend their cash in London, Paris and Orlando. Merely these three places will see a drop of income in the next few years. So how much more is needed? You might think that the small setting of “France is the most visited country within Europe, attracting an impressive 81,411,000 foreign sightseers each year”, but that would not be entirely correct. It includes all nations, including Europeans and a bunch of them will be attracted to Saudi luxury as well and consider that 1% is still 814,110, even if they merely lose 1%, that amounts to quite the drain on revenue and that is in part already heading towards Saudi Arabia. Already we are seeing messages on Free tourist visas, the one element that partially blocks choices is in the process of being removed. And all this is piling up against Europe and America. All whilst we were given ‘Tourism trips by residents of EU in 2023 up close to 6% y/y’ we ignore the drop that a mere 1% drop wouldn’t be much, but these tourists have beckoned billions in investments all over Europe and now I expect to see the Chinese drop as well as the ‘local’ tourists now dialling Saudi Arabia for their upcoming destination. Add to that whatever business bookings we see and you know these sales types, how they like to be known to go to new and luxurious destinations, the punch packing trips all over Saudi Arabia will be handing several body blows to Europe (America as well). We might merely see that the effort is on 5,000,000 Chinese tourists. But the overall impact will be a lot higher. That is the one part that everyone forgets about. The overly large population of tourists can only spend their money once or perhaps twice a year and the appeal of Saudi Arabia is overwhelming with at least three locations appealing to a lot of tourists. Add to this Riyadh and the impact of Saudi tourism will be felt in most of the tourist places of Europe and America. I reckon that if Disney and Universal sets a theme park in these places the damage will be near complete. Not a mere 2-3 years. But an impact over the next decade at least. Whatever we think of these parks in Orlando, they are overpacked and soon there will be an alternative of the same making. We see (at present) “With over 58 million annual tourist visits, Disney World averages approximately 159,000 visitors per day across all its parks” as well as “In 2023, 10 million tourists visited Islands of Adventure, a decrease of 9%” and consider that these two places could lose close to 15% more, people that have had enough of these massive queues and they want an alternative. Well Warner Brothers is already seeing an increasing populous enjoying Abu Dhabi and I reckon that these are all people contemplating Saudi Arabia as an optional destination.

Tourist destinations in Europe and America will see the need to tighten their belts. And this is not new. I floated the idea on September 27th 2023 in ‘As the belt tightens’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/09/27/as-the-belt-tightens/) so this is not news to me. I saw it coming a mile away (well, actually a year ago), and that is all before the glamour of Vision 2030 hits the tourists on the retina. I think I made my case 2 times over and the impact should be seen all over Europe in the time 2026-2028, after that? That depends how Saudi Arabia plays it cards. I made one other prediction (presumption) on what would be needed and that could put Europe and America in a bind, they either invest and make ready for 2025 or they might lose a lot more.

Have a great day and contemplate the view from the Aedas ski resort. Can America match that view? Now consider that Saudi Arabia could simultaneous hit 5-10 tourist attractions at the same time in 2026.

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