This morning I was given an article by Amway media (at https://amwaj.media/en/article/why-china-cannot-sway-saudi-arabia-to-shift-away-from-us-weapons). It took me a second to let it sink in, but as it did, it took me back to May 27, 2023 when I wrote ‘Ding Ding, the premise is set’ where I gave my view on the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group and the dangers to America as it would be able to get the Government of Saudi Arabia as a new customer. The story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/05/27/ding-ding-the-premise-is-set/) was not the first one that I had set and here (two years later) we get the setting “if Chinese weapons are more or less on par with their western equivalent, why does Riyadh still spend billions on American weapons?” Was that really the case? I believe it was that Saudi Arabia wanted to play nice so that they could get the F-35 stealth fighter, it is beyond me that America took that card out of the deck and as I stated that the Chengdu version could be ready to get China as a customer for it would have been a massive hit for America, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, Pratt & Whitney and Raytheon. It would have been a massive coup for China and the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group. So as I read “When Pakistan’s Chinese-made J-10 fighters reportedly downed India’s advanced French-made Rafales during dogfights in May—including one confirmed by US officials—it marked a turning point: Chinese weapons had proven themselves against western counterparts in real-life combat” I actually read a simpler setting. Are the sales teams of the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (and optionally Governmental China sales teams not hacking it?
I am not a pilot (not even an aviator) as such I lack the knowledge to set the premise. But I would have given the setting of training one squadron of Saudi pilots in China on the grounds of Chengdu a very first priority. Getting pilots in the mindset of China would have been a first. Was that done? As such the quote ““One of the reasons why Saudi Arabia prefers western weapons over its Chinese equivalent is because Chinese weapons have not seen combat in recent years,” a researcher specializing in Middle East affairs at China’s Northwest University told Amwaj.media. “This may change now that the Chinese-made J-10 fighter jet has drawn its first blood”” I understand the premise, but I do not agree with it. As I see it, Russia and China are on decent par with America, They are always inching towards or ahead with each other. Don’t get me wrong, America has a great record, yet as I see it America has lately bungled a few fields. The first bungle is the USS Zumwalt, the ugliest ship in American navy (as I personally see it) and then there is issue with key technologies, like specialized 155mm rounds, that are massively expensive. As such the Zumwalt class (that are set to just three vessels) for the grocery price of $8,000,000,000 per vessel. Making the destroyer decently more expensive than the USS Blue Ridge and a lot less operational, especially as ammunition of the Zumwalt is too expensive to afford (according to US Congress) that is a mere beginning. In 2021, I quoted (from ABC) “He said the combat jet currently had almost 900 design flaws, with seven considered critical.” This is in regards to the F35, as such China had options to get its foot in the front door (a bad manner sales technology) but at that point China gets the option to offer a solution to the Saudi government. It just occurred that this might be a reason. What if America isn’t keeping Saudi Arabia from the F35 for exclusivity, but to hide the fact that whatever Saudi Arabia gets will expose the flaws of the F35 to a much larger audience? I don’t know, I am merely postulating the thought of the reason why you want to keep an ally like Saudi Arabia away from a priced exclusive dinky toy (sorry, I just had to go there).
The next setting is a decent one, Amwaj gives us “Yet, despite China offering cost-effective and no-strings attached alternatives, Saudi Arabia continues purchasing the majority of its weapons from the US. During President Donald Trump’s visit to the Kingdom in May, the two sides signed a historic 142B USD arms deal, the largest of its kind. This dynamic reveals the deeper truth in Saudi strategic thinking: purchasing weapons are more than commercial transactions, they are investments in a strategic partnership.” That could be the case, yet the way America treated Canada gives rise to the ‘strategic partnerships’ and that is on me, I could very well be seeing this wrong. But the flaws into America’s settings in design, in execution and in realism gives rise that Saudi Arabia needs to diversify beyond America. We are given “Eurofighter Typhoon, Rafale, and Gripen. While the Eurofighter Typhoon incorporates some low-observable features, it is not considered a true stealth aircraft like the F-35.” As such, as the Rafale was ‘defeated’, China becomes the one diversifying direction and most likely the better choice over the Sukhoi Su-57 (after all, NATO calls it a Felon). And there is a geopolitical setting against adopting the Russian variant, as such Chengdu wins. That is if America keeps on playing the F35 as a Trump card.
I reckon that adapting Saudi pilots to the Chengdu solution is a first setting and if Saudi Arabia gets an $80B discount on overall purchases, over 3-4 years and I reckon that it would go a long way to get Saudi Arabia adapt to Chinese airplanes and that would be a massive win (for China), as it would set the stage for Egypt and Indonesia adapt the Chinese versions as well (an optional presumption). A stage where China goes from 1 to 3 customers might be very appealing to China (say: Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group)
And this is the setting that Amwaj media exposed, well I set the premise at least 4 years earlier, but that is fine. Then we get the one true hard setting that Amwaj ‘exposes’. It is “Given Washington’s history of attaching political conditions to arms sales, Riyadh rightly fears that its predominantly American-made arsenal could become leverage to compel compliance. Most recently, this was seen in 2021, when the Joe Biden administration suspended offensive weapons sales in an effort to induce the Kingdom’s exit from Yemen.” The alternative, is that considered and correctly phased? If Saudi Arabia completely changes to Chinese weaponry, is that a hindrance or a opportunity? China will see it as a win, but it is not what China wants, it is what is preferred and what is best for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. That is the center stage and that is what matters. What is truly best for Saudi Arabia and that is up to the Saudi government. I have no idea because it requires several academic degrees and data that I have never had access to. Because if one domino topples, so will others. As such what is the Priceline and the cost of doing business. I might know some, but I have no idea on how the dominos are stacked. As such it is a bit of a minefield and whilst I would (as a commonwealthian) applaud the setting where Saudi Arabia adopts the Eurofighter Typhoon, there is a timeline to consider. It is not 5th generation and there is no real timeline for when the Eurofighter Typhoon gets to evolve into a 6th generation stealth fighter. And lets be clear, there are no clear timelines when its real enemy (the presumptuous Iran) becomes a real danger to Saudi Arabia and that is the flaw that is both a setting of hindrance and the optional danger block. These elements matter, but as I see it America needs to act, because the longer it delays, the larger the danger becomes that Saudi Arabia is forced to choice another direction and whatever direction Saudi Arabia selects would become a splinter in the board of toppling the America economy that America cannot undo, that much is clear and in this day and age, as America is alienating its allies, it needs to secure the settings it has.
That is merely my view on the matter. Have a great day, 95 minutes until my breakfast.


