That happens, it happens to us all. We see lines from others and it colors how we see things. It isn’t always given and it isn’t always handed to us. We need to come across these settings. Some coloring adheres to our own thought and some of it was not projected at all, but it makes sense and that is where points of view are created. Here I was almost ready to talk more about the next RPG setting when two articles hit me, one was merely someone telling us about his consideration on LinkedIn, the source doesn’t seem to be too impactful. The media is too courtesan driven towards the digital dollar, so they mostly lost credibility. There are a few exceptions mind you, but in this sea in turmoil of Yuan seeking entities, there is a need for reliable information. And I am no different, I might not be the wisest person on the planet (not by a long shot) but I do try to vet my sources (as much as possible), as such I try to find two sources of information as much as possible. This isn’t always possible, but that is my worry.
The first source is from Djoomart Otorbaev who was a Former Prime Minister of the Kyrgyz Republic, as such he knows a lot more about the region that I would ever had. He gives us:
Regime Change? The West Just Created a Harder Iran.
For years, #Washington and #TelAviv believed the same thing: pressure, isolation, and a decisive military blow could break the Iranian regime from within.
Instead, they just made it stronger-and more radical.
The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has shattered the central strategic assumption behind the war.
The opposite has happened. By elevating Mojtaba Khamenei to Supreme Leader, Iran’s power structure has effectively consolidated around the hard-line security establishment, particularly the Islamic Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Reformists and moderates—already weakened—are now politically irrelevant.
The message from #Tehran is unmistakable: there will be no surrender. For the #US and #Israel, this is a strategic failure. The expectation was that decapitation strikes would either paralyse the regime or ignite internal revolt. Instead, the regime replaced its leader within hours and escalated militarily across the Persian #Gulf.
The symbolism matters.
During the Israeli strike on February 28, Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly lost not only his father but also his mother, his wife, and his son. If The White House hoped the new leader would seek compromise, it profoundly misunderstood the psychology of power in #Iran.
Personal loss in revolutionary systems rarely produces moderation. It produces vengeance.
Donald Trump has already dismissed Mojtaba as “unacceptable” and even called him weak. But inside Iran’s security apparatus the reality appears very different. Mojtaba has long-standing ties to the IRGC and reportedly enjoys strong backing among its younger and more radical commanders. In other words, the war may have elevated precisely the faction the West feared most. Operationally, Iran’s response has also revealed a deliberate strategy. Ali Larijani, now the central figure coordinating national security decisions, has overseen retaliatory strikes against targets across the Gulf. This is not the behavior of a collapsing regime.
It is just a horizontal escalation-expanding the conflict geographically and strategically to impose higher costs on a stronger opponent. History shows this tactic can work. It helped weaker states challenge American military power, for example, in #Vietnam and #Serbia. And Iran is now applying the same logic.
Ironically, the war appears to be producing something Washington never intended: a surge of Iranian nationalism.
Even many citizens who despise the regime are recoiling from the scale of destruction and the rhetoric suggesting that Iran itself could be dismantled.
Ironically, the war appears to be producing something Washington never intended: a surge of Iranian nationalism. The result is the worst possible strategic outcome for the West. And at its helm now stands a younger Khamenei-thirty years younger than the one who just died, and likely far less willing to compromise.
Regime change was supposed to weaken Iran.
Instead, it hardened it for a generation.
I believe him to give us the truth on what is happening and personally I am happy that I gave my military IP to both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, they might need it and there is a larger setting that will evolve (I’ll get to that next), but the larger setting is again that President Trump has make the world stage a harder place for Americans. I can see this in myself. I auto disregard what he gives us as fact, I have never done that before regarding any US administration, but now I am on that setting. And I am not alone here.
Next we get to the Arab Weekly (at https://thearabweekly.com/lindsey-graham-got-his-war-he-has-no-idea-what-comes-next) where we see ‘Lindsey Graham got his war. He has no idea what comes next’ and we are given “A single senator, with no formal role in the chain of command, served as one of the primary architects of the most consequential American military action in decades.” I described that 2 days ago as “complete with a picture as he is standing next to his friends on the escalator” (he was taking the escalator alone), but here we also see “For nearly two decades, Lindsey Graham sat in the US Senate, giving speeches about Iran. He called the ayatollahs “religious Nazis.” He warned that diplomacy was a fool’s game and that the only thing the clerics in Iran understood was force. For nearly two decades, no one in the White House listened. Then, on a golf course in West Palm Beach, someone did. The strikes that began on February 28, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury,” were the product of several factors. Israeli officials lobbied aggressively, and the capture of Nicolás Maduro in January had put President Donald Trump in a confrontational mood. But the most persistent, effective voice in the president’s ear belonged to Lindsey Graham, the Senator from South Carolina. Graham’s pitch, delivered over rounds of golf and repeated in phone calls during the transition, was simple. Iran was a “spoiler” for everything Trump wanted in the Middle East, the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the normalisation with Saudi Arabia, the historical legacy. If Trump could “collapse this terrorist regime,” Graham told him, it would be “Berlin Wall stuff.”” I believe that the writer Elfadil Ibrahim struck the right chord. Yet I believe that the listener had other plans, this merely fit into the setting that needed address. And we see this in another article. In the Middle East Eye (among a few sources) give us (at https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/lindsey-graham-criticises-israel-over-targeting-iranian-oil-facilities) ‘Lindsey Graham criticises Israel over targeting Iranian oil facilities’ where we see “Republican senator says oil economy is ‘essential’ and that US will make a ‘tonne of money’ when Islamic republic falls” and as I see it, it was always about the oil. Canada wouldn’t budge, Greenland got European and Canadian protection and the oil from Venezuela is mostly useless, as such now we get to Iran and that isn’t falling the way it was and if we given credence to the words of Djoomart Otorbaev, America will be down in the bankruptcy dirt long before Iran falls, which I kinda accepted as the threats from Senator Graham towards Saudi Arabia were voiced. So, why ‘entice’ Saudi Arabia whilst the war is already won? I reckon it isn’t and ‘my toys’ were there to give additional protection to both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, not to fuel the greed and stupidity of the United States. So whilst we are entertaining the largely dishonest quote from Senator Graham we see ““In that regard, please be cautious about what targets you select. Our goal is to liberate the Iranian people in a fashion that does not cripple their chance to start a new and better life when this regime collapses. The oil economy of Iran will be essential to that endeavour.” Israel struck over 30 oil depots in Iran on Saturday, including in Tehran and Karaj.” It merely shows how desperate the United States has become and at present the escape quotes seem to be adhered to. As I see it President Trump will likely ‘resort’ to a setting where Senator Graham is left holding the bag and that bag is getting mighty heave with each day after March 28th that Iran hasn’t fallen and my quotes over the last few days seem to be holding up to non-American scrutiny. And as I see it, the damage is increasing day after day and as the United States are getting to the tipping point of no longer being able to pay any of their bills, the excuses come that they were fighting for the freedom of the Iranian people and most of us will see the blatant ‘incorrectness’ of that statement.
Personally I am happy that I never took up that position in Chicago in 1995, but there is no escaping what comes next. Unless you are a fat billionaire, or at least have at least a dozen million in your possession, the knock on the door will be on every other house that has bills and mortgages. So as we get back to the Arab Weekly, we see “When pressed on how exactly this transformation would occur, Graham becomes impatient. “The future of Iran is going to be determined by the Iranian people,” he told NBC’s Kristen Welker when she asked whether the administration had a plan. “No, it’s not his [president Trump’s] job or my job to do this. How many times do I have to tell you?” This is fantastical thinking, unmoored from history and the messy realities of regime change. The Wall Street Journal reported that Graham “likened Iran’s leader to Adolf Hitler and told Trump that Iran was in a historically weak position,” but the comparison reveals exactly what Graham misses. It ended because the Allies had spent years defeating the German army on multiple fronts, occupying the country, and then investing billions in its reconstruction through the Marshall Plan. The US maintained a military presence in Europe for decades, and still does. That was the actual cost of defeating Nazism, and it is a cost neither Graham nor Trump have shown any interest in bearing for Iran.” I see merely one missing ‘adaptive fact’ the part missing is that their consultancy fee is in oil at $0.50 per barrel for decades to come, because that is what the United States yearns for, it has to pay bankers and they seemingly cannot.
It might be my colored glasses and they might not be correctly adjusted, but the media is largely no help in correctly adjusting my view, that and decades of data knowledge makes ‘dislodging’ my glasses a little harder for others. And I am not saying: ‘I am Correct!’ There is plenty to consider where I might be wrong and I am fine with this, just remember that I am not hiding behind the song ‘La Vie en Rose’, I like the Grace Jones version the best. I am not living in a pink colored setting. It is cold blue and not very nice. I know that, but we need to see that America is no longer an ally, it is merely thinking of themself and they will sell any Allie and neighbor down the drain to get what they want. For that I have Canada and Greenland as evidence.
Have a great day today.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 