Tag Archives: Amazon

January 11, 2024 · 23:45

Clutter

It sometimes happens to any of us. Our brains get cluttered in all kind of ways and I am no different. For me it all started yesterday when Final Draft gave me a free update to version 13. It felt like that very late Christmas present you never expected, but when that email arrives you are more than double happy and I really felt the happiest I have felt that entire year (relax it was only day 10 of that year) but there you are. It was that happy surprise. 

So, as I am continuing that stride with the first script, this one meant for Al Saudiya, I see that I have a lot of work ahead of me. There is a mini series, a three season TV series and another series which has no defined size yet and all of them have parts all over my blog, as such I have plenty to do.

It was that point when I saw ‘Amazon to Lay Off ‘Several Hundred’ Across Prime Video, Amazon MGM Studios, 500 Cut at Twitch’, it wasn’t the Variety version I saw first, but it was the first that turned up now (at https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/amazon-lay-offs-prime-video-mgm-studios-1235867454/) there we are given “Additionally, 500 employees — or 35% of the workforce — are being let go at Amazon-owned livestream platform Twitch” this is not trim ming the fat. Even as Amazon has broken expectations all over the board. This is about tax year 2024 and this is about meeting the shareholder expectations, or at least that is what it comes over at for me. Mike Hopkins gives its staff members “It is hard to say goodbye to talented Amazonians who’ve made meaningful contributions on behalf of our customers, team and business. Thank you for your dedication and work. To help with the transition, we are providing packages that include a separation payment, transitional benefits as applicable by country, and external job placement support.” The fact that this is not some hard time point makes it a lot harder for some. 

But for good measure here is the music by Emil Stigler (at https://levysheetmusic.mse.jhu.edu/collection/185/093).

You might think I am making fun of the situation, but I am not. This one piece of music is now part of the Library of Congress. I don’t think that the composer imagined that when he wrote this in 1866. His music would outlive him by some length. Did we have any idea how timeless some movies would become half a century later? There was Jaws, Alien (not the short movie), Close Encounters of the third kind and Star Wars. 

All 4 movies relatively close together, these 4 and one in particular on the mind of movie watchers three generations later. To be honest, I never cared about Twitch, its not my bag of tea, but it has a following. Twitch streamers optionally earn money from sponsorships, affiliate links, some advertising, and a variety of other methods. Now, what comes next is largely speculative. Never cared ab out Twitch, but that service has 140 million Monthly Active Users as of 2024. The total number of active Twitch streamers is around 7.5 million. This number was 7.1 million In July 2023. That is a population that matters, this is not about trimming fat. I reckon that Twitch is up for offering but when it is offered it needs to become a clean package and now the 35% staff reduction starts to make sense. Amazon is gearing up for something, what for? I have no idea and this is largely speculative. I have no idea what is up and perhaps Amazon fears the competition it faces from Apple, Disney and Netflix. It might see what I expected would happen. People are unable to afford all four and in that race Amazon is the first cut from consideration. I honestly don’t know if Apple or Amazon is better, but Apple is making presented strides, as far as I can tell Amazon at present is not. 

So what gives?
March of the Amazons (1866) shows us that some gems are kept and in movies that matters. To have any of the previous 4 still on the mind of watchers matters because streaming is graded on what is watched and for how long and those 4 really broke the mould. The important part is that we cannot tell that at present with the new series, this process takes time and board members of any modern age are not a patient lot, they need to see overwhelming results or they cut things. I personally think it is a setting when the merely expect searing steak, all whilst the slow cooker presents its own kind of deliciousness. One is not the other and I personally think that the old metrics and approach do not work on streaming systems. That being said, Amazon seemingly dropped my IP not realising what 50,000,000 subscriptions in the first phase alone will get them. It is a cluster they never had and others never had either. Yet when we see this we see an optional speculation on what they are missing and speculation is where it is at. I have no clue why they are trimming the fat. I am guessing it is the 2024 results, to meet them head on and people are dropped because of that. However, I could be wrong.

I honestly wonder what possessed makers like Steven Spielberg, Ridley Scott, and George Lucas to make what they did. Not the normal setting, but what drove them from the inside and did they know or realise that they created cinema greatness? I never doubt that they wanted to make the best they could, but were they aware just how good it ended up being half a century later? Consider that movies in those days were made for a year, perhaps 2-5. We see movies like Coma, Chinatown and Deliverance and we all agree that they were great, but these 4 outlasted them all. Time works different when it comes to books, movies and music. So how to prevent to cut the people who could be making the next whatever. It was at this point that I realised that something had gone wrong. At some point someone thought that it could always be redone, the movie greats of the 70’s are largely gone. Perhaps monumental movies like Dances with Wolves are bound to happen, but when you consider the 4 from the 70’s, what is left? Dances with Wolves? Titanic? You tell me, but I personally fear that as Hollywood started to snag the process, they lost something and there is a chance that Amazon at present it digging its own grave, even thought they cannot see it yet. Even as they are (as speculated) trimming the fat. But there is one consideration. With that job loyalty is bound to go out the window as well. They might not care, but what happens when the next Herman Melville? You might not remember the man, but you do remember Mobi Dick, the book he created in 1851. That book is on some minds almost 175 years later. The slow cooker needs a different process, any chef can tell you that. I wonder how long it takes for the streamers realise that their process is set to different elements, to different seasoning. Just a question, but they appeared as I was dealing with the clutter in my brain. And as for the march of the Amazons? Consider that The Phoenix by Fall Out Boy is an average song, but when the speed is increased 17% it becomes a whole different story, yet this is the consequence of re-arranged music. As such I doubt that Emil Stigler is that, but I never looked at that part (I am not a musician), did you? We are unlikely to see another Darth Vader march by John Williams, I doubt that even he saw that his song would be so iconic 44 years later. That song calls for an image with billions, not something I would have imagined when I first heard it. I knew it was stellar, we all did, but this iconic? Streamers have a like minded setting to some music, different metrics are in play (still speaking speculatively) does Amazon realises that?

Just a question, enjoy your day, my Friday starts in 30 minutes.

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January 8, 2024 · 14:01

One side of business

I have had some questions thrown at me, some very nasty ones. You see, there is a massive difference between me and Americans. They are all about “What gives me the best deal” because it is one and optionally valid path to take. I do not believe in that path. You see I have always and forever been about “What shows me to be the best return on investment” and I believe it is the best path to take in this day and age. Would I refuse a decent offer by Amazon (either Jeff Bezos or Andy Jassy)? No, of course not. I would have some reservations, but that is OK. For that same setting I would accept a decent offer by Sergei Brin or Sundar Pichai (if they pass the qualifying question). To be a good source towards THEIR return on investment matters. OK, in case of Google there are a few other issues, but for the most it should be fine. Microsoft is out and they are pretty much done for but I will return to that part shortly.

So why UAE?
It is merely one place and there are two players Emaar Properties (Mohamed Alabbar) and DAMAC properties (Hussain Sajwani), both multibillionaires and both on the top of their field. In this (as reported yesterday) Emaar could see an additional growth of what I speculated was “an additional stage that would bring more than Dh680 million.” This is not a massive growth, this would be the impact if my solution brought a mere 1% to that table. Anything more and it becomes a serious amount of money. We can posture and speculate on how much more and you can do that all you like. It matters not. What matters is that these two gentleman see what I can bring to the table. IP with global implications. The fact that it will be registered and tested in Dubai first is merely one way to look at it. The registration gives them a 25 years advantage and that is what matters. It opens doors for players like Huawei to get additional traction in an area they never considered before and all because American players stayed asleep. And that is merely the beginning. The moment I prove one side, the other doors will open and they have several parts to grow in. Even now, only last night did I consider another path for one of my IP parts. This will merely be an innovation patent but it gives the implementors time. Time that places like America no longer have. We see all the news on ‘growing consumer confidence’ but it is like yapping to reeds. You see America is down 33,000 billion dollars. The interest impact will slow them down more and more and in this Microsoft is starting to wage a losing presentation war. Even now (actually a few hours ago) we were shown “If Windows continues to shed market share, it could hurt other parts of the business and the company’s efforts to monetise AI.” Is this a surprise? I predicted this BEFORE June 24th 2023 when I wrote ‘Path of a slippery slope’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/24/path-of-a-slippery-slope/) As such I saw this well over 6 months ago. That list goes on for while and whilst we are all about the presentation in the end results are what matters and It seems that the tycoons of the UAE have figured that out. In addition the woke and impassible setting in America will hinder these larger companies in several ways. So you tell me when these two tycoons get a technology advantage, one that could have opportunities on a global setting. What do you think they will do? And that is merely a first step. We all know the first step is the hardest, but anything after that becomes a lot easier when you show that there is a return on investment. They would never hesitate to pay me 12.5% on this setting (with an annual bonus of course on achieved sales) and when it shows to be more than 1% the equation drastically changes for them. That is the win for them (and me of course) and in all this America no longer mattered. They are losing too much money. Presentation firms are staging ‘presented success’ all whilst we can see that Microsoft lost their marketshare 5 times over and now someone else is seeing that they are shedding market share in their office and OS environment a place they never worried about before. Suddenly that 100 billion for gaming becomes an anchor around their necks and they will have little or no winnings to show for that for some time to come. They can present all they want but Tencent Is about to launch its own solutions and they stand to gain well over 50 million gamers. And well before phase two is completed they stand to get within 2 years what Microsoft required to get in 81 months (58 million units) that is what America is about to face. The sure thing of presenting consumers confidence all whilst these consumers see new shores and all these shores aren’t American firms. They are other shores and the only one who has a chance at present is Amazon (Google walked away from that). It is merely one side of business but it is a side America ignored all for the need of ego and presentations. As such as the stage goes on at present my prediction for December 2026 is still on the table, but now there is additional IP and none if it is going to Microsoft, they lose out yet again. How much longer until America is getting the gist that the party is over and the wrong people are making the decisions. 

In all this nothing is new, yet for me it remains to be a return on investment, a lesson greed driven America hasn’t figured out yet and that works for Huawei who is implementing cloud centres in riyadh and I reckon in the UAE soon enough as well. Another marketshare lost to America. In this the BRICS members have an advantage in all this and it is my believe that China will prosper massively here too. 

So enjoy your day and consider what side of business is passing you by. It might be trivial, yet in that ask yourself the other question. What gives you long term gains. You see long term implies (not proves) that the other player will be ready to commit to what YOU bring to THEIR table. It does not revolve around ‘Cash is King’ but in this day and age commitment is everything.

Enjoy

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January 4, 2024 · 18:57

Wanna go fat?

That is the weird but very apt question. Of course I could ask Laura Vandervoort implying if she wants me (my delusional side in action). Yet this is not about women, this is about gaming. It is 2024 and internet congestion is starting to become a much bigger issue. As such, if Amazon with its Luna wants to stand out and equal if not surpass Tencent with its handheld, it needs to reformulate some settings. I truly believe that Gaming as a Service (GaaS) has the future, but the brains behind this are too much about the monthly fee and when congestion hits that monthly fee becomes a problem. Tencent with its handheld has a solution, now Amazon needs to find a roadmap to set itself apart. They cannot rely on player like Ubisoft to figure things out, it will be too late for them.

Now consider an upgraded and remastered version of some of the Commodore 64 greats. Fort Apocalypse, Wizard, Jumpman, Wizard of Wor and so on. You might find that amusing, but you only have to face one wall of congestion and it suddenly doesn’t feel that weird anymore. Now each of these games was less than 354Kb in total. Now with upgraded graphics (and much better sounds) it will easily fit a 2Mb marker. Consider the controller now with an SD card slot and a 64GB card is less than $15. Now consider that the controller is the fat client. It will use the servers, but in some cases it can download a partial frame and a whole host of games can be played from the controller. Not Ubisoft games and not many ‘new’ high tech games (or whatever they would call them) but others could be downloaded and other games could be downloaded whilst you play. It is a larger station to consider. In the age of congestion, the one that allows you to play is the winner and Amazon needs a real win. Microsoft is spinning the fact that they are losing. They made arrangements with Ubisoft. So what happens when Microsoft desperately wants more? Amazon better get ready because if they are not, it all goes to Tencent and they are at present in a stage where they could get millions of gamers, all because some were asleep (OK, Google walked away from this). 

The larger setting that we see (at https://www.androidauthority.com/amazon-luna-1170676/) is only part of it. They are set on relying on monthly prices and that is good. The moment that players and families will have to consider $12 for Netflix or $10 for Amazon Prime, Amazon will lose members. The controller is either $70, or $83. So what happens when people get the one time additional $10 for the fat client version, they need to buy their own SD card, but it comes with a free setting of these ‘download’ games and as that list improves the people will select the Amazon equation. You can all go into denial that this will never happen, but a setting where bills are strangling you, that $10 can given you dozens of games and a gaming setting that families can afford. Yes, when they cannot afford one, they cannot afford the other either. But there will be a large group of people who can only afford one. And that will escalate. Now take congestion in the mix and people are paying for something that cannot be delivered for whatever excuse the telco gives us and in Australia Optus has had its share of excuses, so much so that there is a senate hearing on Optus. And it is the first one at present. I reckon that soon enough others will have their congestion and outage issues, this might be the year it comes to blows all because too many were sitting on their hands and it is not merely Australia. EU and US will have their own issues soon enough. In addition to that Germany and France have massive rural area’s where the minimum bandwidth is seemingly an issue. That issue is seemingly and there is no real open data. Those who have the issue are (as I personally suspect) hiding this. As such a fat client solution could decrease bandwidth pressures and allow people to game there, at least those lacking a console or PC. 

As I personally see it, going fat is not the best way, but it is an option into the future, so how about it Laura ;-)?

Now consider the Amazon solution with dozens of awesome remastered games added to the mixture? As I see it it is better than what is now, the Microsoft spin only holds water for so long and whilst too many are following that Microsoft cult, Tencent with its handheld is about to gain real gamers globally and that was what I always predicted. They question becomes which of the two is gaining the additional 50,000,000 gamers the quickest in phase one? When that part becomes reality Microsoft will have lost another battle, all set to meaningless banter like ‘We have the most powerful console in the world’ which is not a lie, but Nintendo with its weakest console surpassed them with great ease and now Tencent is about to become the next favourite taste of gamers. Amazon has options but it is not clear for how long. They are establishing themselves, yet outside issues like congestion will halt them for some time and this is the kind of game that standing still get you to lose the race. 

Enjoy this Thursday, the first weekend of the year is only a day away.

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January 2, 2024 · 01:33

Redefining limits

Yup, we all do that. Perhaps me more than others. This time I am not slapping Microsoft (too much fun), but it is time to have a small go at Amazon. They were asleep at the wheel as well and they still have their Amazon Luna.

This is the image of a board game called Hero Quest. The game (at present) is not important. What is, is the fact that someone turned it into a video game. Now I am not judging that game (never played it). But there is a whole range of games that are ignored. The most important part is that people did not go into this with their imagination turned on. So let’s take another look at another game. 

Behold the Harry Potter edition of Clue. A game that could be played online as well. But consider another stage. What if the stage of the board changes depending on the character you play? The rooms and layout remain the same, but how you see these corridors and rooms do not. In Hero Quest we see a ‘bland’ board because at that time it was what there was. Now consider these corridors having shades and shadows. It gives a rogue less visibility, implying that in a dark part of a corridor he is unlikely to be seen and can attack once with benefits. In clue the characters have different secret passages, or at least not all of them. In addition (playing by the original clue rules) Hermione has additional question skills. Harry has movement skills (broom and such). It doesn’t change the game, it merely alters it and it becomes a whole lot more interesting to play that game with a specific character. 

We can go on all night and do this to a while range of games. My issue is that board games aren’t new. They are also not new in video games. So why didn’t anyone take this to a whole new level (looking at you Amazon)? 

Limits is where you see them and redefining them is seen when you destroy these limits. Players like Amazon are so used to let others (with limitations) set the premise and they are ignoring what could have been done. 

There were so many board games. There are the MB games (Milton Bradley Company) and their games were ‘top’ entertainment through the 70’s-90’s, so why were they forgotten? I get that they were not on the mind of CBM-64 programmers. But now with most limits gone much more could have been achieved and in streaming it will be important to set part of the stage where the whole family could compete and that is where streaming could push the new score of entertainment. If it is single player, against NPC’s or others online, the multi-view comes back into the equation. 

So do the math. How many games for Amazon Luna were released in 2023? How many were played? Now consider these board games and let people play them by themselves (against an NPC) or online agains a friend of fellow player, what clusters of eager players would Amazon have unlocked? 

That list could go on for a while and it could also include a few other options, but I think the message is clear. The console makers (all apart from Sony and Nintendo) are leaving it up to others to fix things. I think Amazon needs to take a hard look at where they are and where they think they are going. It is important because Tencent has a handheld for streaming and they are about to push their borders all over the globe. Microsoft can claim all it wants, but the new Elder Scrolls is (according to sources) at least 5 years away. Nintendo needed less then 2 years to surpass them and Tencent is likely able to achieve the same. It is now up to Amazon to be regarded as a serious gaming solution of become 4th in that race soon there after. They might land ahead of Microsoft, but in gaming that is not much of an achievement.

Just my few cents on the matter in this new year.

Enjoy!

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December 31, 2023 · 13:03

Jan Klaassen, horn blower

Yup, at times this happens. We all have a need to blow our own horn. I am no different and as the world is not giving me any interesting news items. I decided to blow my own horn (of sorts) today. The thought got to me when I saw the article (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2434076/saudi-arabia) called ‘Year in review: How Saudi Arabia made its mark in tech, tourism, diplomacy and entertainment in 2023’ where we see “Successful bid to host World Expo 2030 and ambitious infrastructure projects make the Kingdom a must-visit destination” but that is not the part I saw pondering. It was “Saudi Arabia will look back on 2023 as a year of triumphs, having hosted major events in the fields of technology, culture, sport and diplomacy, while continuing on its path of impressive economic expansion and diversification.” With the added “The Era of Change: Together for a Foresighted Tomorrow,” I offered the Kingdom (via its Consul General) another option to impact millions of Islamics in a few ways, but alas I was turned down. This happens, no hard feelings. My thoughts might not be the thoughts of others and I did try to pass this onto The Kingdom Holdings (apparently also unsuccessful) and that is on me. It might be my wrongly stated view, but I feel strongly about that IP and I believe it would give the Kingdom additional options, especially in diversification. Now, I am trying to complete a ‘novel’ (my personal view) on a script that might appeal to Al Saudiya. Of course I have no high hopes that I will be successful, but I did put my foot in this and I plan to carry it through, successful or not. You see, we all tend to worship success, but I have seen innovation in failure. Innovation missed by Amazon, Apple, Google and IBM (no one cares about the other one, the company with the ‘M’ of mouse) and it matters. In this day an age where they are all presenting AI (which does not yet exist) where they all present on what comes next, I have shown them to miss all manners of innovation on several matters and my previous articles expose some of them. So whilst I am blowing my own horn (scandalously, I admit) we must consider that some are not as hungry for revenue as they seem to be, which was why I tried to sell some of my IP to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It was not that the United Arab Emirates were less of an option, but when the IP is shown in its full view, the choice of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia would make more sense to a whole lot of people and both could easily (very easily) afford it, that and the fact that both want to diversify I felt comfort in making the offer I did. 

Even now I see additional options in several fields (not all directly involving the Middle East), but as time lines go, they could benefit from at least one such path (one shown yesterday at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/12/30/almost-circular/). As such when diversifying it pays to consider paths that are not on everyones mind, but when you consider that path makes sense to many people. That is one side of innovation that we tend to forget. It is not the innovation where everyone is looking at (like no real AI), it is looking in the opposite direction and see what could be done there. As no one is looking, the player doing that could be the only one for some time. And when others wake up they either follow behind, pushing you to make a better product or set the stage for others to become serious players in that field. 

All this matters as it changes the fields and it changes the interactions between players and that matters because that change could affect a whole range of other issues.

Just my $0.02 on the matter. Enjoy the day and the festivities that follow today.

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December 30, 2023 · 12:01

Almost circular

Yup, we get that expression again, we are almost done with another trip around the sun. I am not sure where it comes from. I think I heard it first on Facebook, but that is no indication of origin. So at the end of the year a few things hit me. I want to give them all up here, but in this case I have handed them over to Tencent Holdings Ltd. first. Lets see if they are more awake then Google and Amazon. You see, there is a hiatus appearing and that is not a good thing (not a bad thing either), it merely is and I recognise that. Yet the hiatus was discovered by little me when I was getting to know a program called Final Draft (v12). I am putting in one of my Scripts for Al Saudiya and I got well over 30% done in less then a total time of 24 hours. As I was progressing through the parts (ACT4 in particular) things started to appear before me. Thoughts that I had not had whilst writing the story by itself. Now, this makes sense. Final Draft is a specific solution for a specific audience. Yet what appeared to me more clearly (part of it was already visible, which was why I selected that tool to learn) Is that there is an offset to ‘immediately’ register it with SAG-AFTRA. It set a new station. You see, not only can (what some call) do a Reese Whiterspoon on all this. There is a growing need for a cloud solution and set up a global protection umbrella for scripts. Consider that until a few years ago Hollywood had to deal with 35,000 scripts a year. 350 are made into movies. It is a simple cram of the crop equation. Now consider this same setting but with additional streaming, TV, Nollywood, Bollywood, Scandinavia and so on. We now get closer to more than 100,000 scripts. So how to prevent ‘cross-pollination’? The only real option is to have a cloud solution that registers all what you write into the cloud. It could register as evidence that your IP was invaded upon. But to do that your IP needs to be registered. I think Final Draft, Inc. is already thinking and moving into that direction. Now that Final Draft is pushing towards ‘Writing for Youtube? We’ve got you covered!’ The stage moves even further. You see YouTube is ‘stating’ that there are 38,000,000 active Vloggers. If only 10% is upping their game with Final draft, Final Draft will suddenly need a much larger support system and an optional global one. That was what I was banking on (initially) but I didn’t see the YouTube part, which is of course a nice escalation in my favour. 

In that setting Final Draft needs a support system that can take care of that much more users. They would need two parts. The first is a support system like only NICE CX One can deliver and they need to consider globalisation. If only to set an optional 24:7 setting. That gives them USA, optionally UAE (Abu Dhabi, as Dubai might be too expensive). Somewhere in India and on the east side of China. They now have an overlap in 4 stages, meaning if one has technical difficulties the left and right side of that team can carry the load for a few hours each. China makes more sense then Japan, because the Chinese entertainment industry will get a massive influx in 1-2 years. UAE has more options than Saudi Arabia, but the Arabian entertainment is also due a larger growth. Saudi Arabia is already setting its mind on sports, meaning that streaming is closely followed, hence my Al Saudiya move. 

And they can also support Nollywood. As such, as demand grows Final Draft is about to grow to new heights. And their cloud move makes sense. It is a logical next step to allow their customers chose to select the cloud or keep it local. So as we are about to make another trip around the sun, we need to see that Final Draft was ahead of a lot of people and the one niche that Microsoft ignored for close to 20 years is about to be lost to them. No worries, Google was asleep at the helm as well. Another setting they never saw coming and where was Amazon? I cannot tell, because none of this was on their ship, but if they align with Final Draft on that cloud solution, optionally with NICE, the game changes a little more and both streams will be lost on Microsoft. I predicted a lot of this, not this one, but that implies that Microsoft in the end losses a lot more than before and that is also the new setting. Millions now needing a non-Microsoft solution, how weird this year ends. Not to put to fine a point on this but I am loving this.

Enjoy this day before the end of the year.

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December 25, 2023 · 16:01

How stupid could stupid become?

Yup that was the question and it all started with an article by the CBC. I had to read it twice because I could not believe my eyes. But yes, I did not read it wrong and that is where the howling began. Lets start at the beginning. It all started with ‘Want a job? You’ll have to convince our AI bot first’, the story (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/recruitment-ai-tools-risk-bias-hidden-workers-keywords-1.6718151) gives us “Ever carefully crafted a job application for a role you’re certain that you’re perfect for, only to never hear back? There’s a good chance no one ever saw your application — even if you took the internet’s advice to copy-paste all of the skills from the job description” this gives us a problem on several factors, but the two I am focussing on is IT and recruiters. IT is the first. AI does not exist, not yet at least. What you see are all kinds of data driven tools, primarily set to Machine Learning and Deeper Machine Learning. First off, these tools are awesome. In their proper setting they can reduce workloads and automate CERTAIN processes.

But these machines cannot build, they cannot construct and they cannot deconstruct. To see whether a resume and a position match together you need the second tier, the recruiter (or your own HR department). There are skills involved and at times this skill is more of an art. Seeing how much alike a person is to the position is an art. You can test via a resume of minimum skills are available. Yes, at times it take a certain amount of Excel levels, it might take SQL skill levels or perhaps a good telephone voice. A good HR person (or recruiter) can see this. Machine Learning will not ever get it right. It might get close. 

So whilst we laugh at these experts, the story is less nice, the dangers are decently severe. You see, this is some side of cost reduction, all whilst too many recruiters have no clue what they are doing, I have met a boatload of them. They will brush it off with “This is what the client wants” but it is already too late, they were clueless from the start and it is getting worse. The article also gives  us a nice handle “They found more than 90 per cent of companies were using tools like ATS to initially filter and rank candidates. But they often weren’t using it well. Sometimes, candidates were scored against bloated job descriptions filled with unnecessary and inflexible criteria, which left some qualified candidates “hidden” below others the software deemed a more perfect fit.” It is the “they often weren’t using it well”, you see any machine learning is based on a precise setting, if the setting does not fit, the presented solution is close to useless. And it goes from bad to worse. You see it is seen with “even when the AI claims to be “bias-free.”” You see EVERY Machine learning solution is biased. Bias through data conversion (the programmer), bias through miscommunication (HR, executive and programmer misalignment) and that list goes on. If the data is not presented correctly, it goes wrong and there is no turning back. As such we could speculate that well over 50% of firms using ATS are not getting the best applicant, they are optionally leaving them to real recruiters, and as such handing to their competitors. Wouldn’t that be fun? 

So when we get to “So for now, it’s up to employers and their hiring teams to understand how their AI software works — and any potential downsides” which is a certain way to piss your pants laughing. It is a more personal view, but hiring teams tend to be decently clueless on Machine Learning (what they call AI). That is not their fault. They were never trained for this, yet consider what they are losing out of? Consider a person who never had military training, you now push them in a war stage with a rifle. So how long will this person be alive? And when this person was a scribe, how will he wield his weapon? Consider the man was a trompetist and the fun starts. 

The data mismatches and keeps this person alive by stating he is not a good soldier, lucky bastard. 

The foundation is data and filling jobs is the need of an HR department. Yes, machine learning could optionally reduce the time going through the resume’s. Yet bias sets in at age, ageism is real in Australia and they cannot find people? How quaint, especially in an aging population. Now consider what an executive knows about a job (mostly any job) and what HR knows and consider how most jobs are lost to translation in any machine learning environment. 

Oh, and I haven’t even considered some of these ‘tests’ that recruiters have. Utterly hilarious and we are given that this is up to what they call AI? Oh, the tears are rolling down my cheeks, what fun today is, Christmas day no less. I haven’t had this much fun since my fathers funeral.

So if you wonder how stupid can get, see how recruiters are destroying a market all by themselves. They had to change gears and approach at least 3 years ago. The only thing I see are more and more clueless recruiters and they are ALL trying to fill the same position. And the CBC and their article also gives us this gem “it’s also important to question who built the AI and whose data it was trained on, pointing to the example of Amazon, which in 2018 scrapped its internal recruiting AI tool after discovering it was biased against female job applicants.” So this is a flaw of the lowest level, merely gender. Now consider that recruiters are telling people to copy LinkedIn texts for their resume. How much more bias and wrong filters will pop up? Because that is the result of a recruiter too, they want their bonus and will get it anyway they can. So how many wrong hires have firms made in the last year alone? Amazon might be the visible one, but that list is a lot larger than you think and it goes to the global corporate top. 

So consider what you are facing, consider what these people face and laugh, its Christmas.

Enjoy today.

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December 24, 2023 · 17:47

Through views reenforced

That is the setting and before we go into the news that the CBC is giving us, we need to take a look at a few past settings. I mentioned it going back to way before June 25th 2021 when I wrote ‘Non Comprehension’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/06/25/non-comprehension/) then there was ‘Inspiration and realisation’ on August 7th 2022 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/08/07/inspiration-and-realisation/) and several more mentions. I even made mention that the UK firms who got the portfolio for Neom city were making mistakes. You see, social media is a bottomless hole, it is like shouting against a wall that is white wondering why the wall doesn’t answer whether it is a vestal virgin, or merely a decently clean wall. It is as I personally see it a decently meaningless metric. Marketing firms like OmniChannel and TRO had figured out years ago that the true metric was engagement. Engagement is pretty much everything. You can rely on the millions of messages you send out through social media, but does it help? Does it basically do anything more than gobble up your budget? Those 2 million placements are close to useless. It is the 5,000 – 25,000 – 125,000 engaging responses that really matters. It mattered to them to respond and it is not “there are 10 non responses to every response”, that too is too hollow for consideration. It is the responses towards engagements that matter, it is the bread and butter of any influencer. 

So now we see (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/malls-death-experiences-luxury-retail-1.7065690) ‘Some Toronto malls are booming, but not necessarily because of the shopping’, as such we see that the CBC (and the mall) are figuring out why their malls are now busty with ‘life’ with the added “Instagram-worthy experiences and unexpected places are part of malls’ future success, experts say”. So who are these experts? I have been making clear statements for well over two years. Where were they then? I even created IP to nudge engagement forward, where were they? So when we are given ““In the mall business, you always have to be fresh. You always have to think about what your customers are after and remain relevant for the customer,” said Robert Horst, vice-president of retail at Oxford Properties, which operates Yorkdale.” Where was Robert Horst when I stated this well over two yeas ago? Did he adjust to augmented reality? No, he did not. In the meantime Amazon could come in and make a killing. Consider that America has 116,000 malls, Canada has allegedly 2818 malls, where is their adjustment towards engagement? Oh and that is before you consider that the EU, UAE, Asia adds a lot more to the total number of malls. So where is the nudge towards engagement there? Google and Amazon had 3-5 years to wake up with new technologies at their fingertips. They did nothing and the malls did nothing either. So when we are given “Malls such as Yorkdale and The Well, which recently opened in downtown Toronto, are offering fresh takes on retail and expanding the mall experience beyond simply shopping. Yorkdale estimates it has 18 million visitors a year” did anyone consider just how much they are missing? 

Inspectors General from the 1st Theater Sustainment Command-Operational Command Post inspect a fuel “bladder” at a fuel farm in central Iraq, recently. U.S. Army Central uses forward logistical elements to maintain fuel farms under contract with U.S. Army logistical specialists called contract representatives to ensure the operation is being conducted to the Army standard. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Brandon Hubbard, USARCENT Public Affairs)

It is like pushing an Army fuel bag up a hill, you know it goes nowhere without serious added manpower, and now consider what is required to get new tech and the new IP to get adjusted to a totally new kind of audience. This requires a new kind of nudging. And it is important to use the word nudge and not push. Engagement is not achieved by ‘Do this’, but by ‘Did you try or consider this?’ That is how new waves of engagements are created. I had a similar setting of creating more and more awareness for Neom city (as well as the Line and Mukaab) it is achieved through engagement. As such I wonder who else is asleep at the wheel. 

So it is nice that we see the CBC article and I have nothing against the article, but as my blog shows I was ahead of these people by years and my blogs point that out. Not merely my blog, players like TRO Marketing services and Omnichannel marketing were ahead by close to a decade, but the other voices. Feel free to listen to them whilst they shout at walls. The response is negligible and that is what needs to be seen. We can believe that malls are dying, or we can set a new stage where their lease on life is renewed. It might not help getting an immediate influx on revenue, but these influencers will start something that gives a new second tier revenue and that matters, because in a stage where economies are dwindling, the second tier is all you need to survive a little longer. Will it save every mall? Nope, it will not, but it will save the early adopters and those willing to invest and that is also the path that Amazon (and optionally Google too) needed to realise. Who many companies are in more then 20 malls? We see Zara, Sephora, Gap, Apple and several others (OK, Victoria Secrets too) in these places. So what did their ‘marketing representatives’ do to boost their visibility and boost engagement? I am willing to hazard a guess that it is very little and I left enough clues lying around for well over 2 years that it needed to be done. There is only one Harrods, there is only one Dubai Mall. The rest? They better work harder to carry the favour of engagement. It was the only way and now we see that I am proven correct yet again.  What a lovely way to get to the end of the year.

So enjoy your day before Christmas and enjoy the last week of this year.

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December 22, 2023 · 02:52

In titles

It is a setting we do not see, some of us will never see it. That is not on us, it is not some flaw. We look ahead, we never ever look in a mirror at ourselves whilst acting. As such we will only ever know what we look like through the eyes of others. This is how it is. It remains simple.

We see events, we see some as acts against us, we see some as acts against those who act against us. It is not simple, but it tends to be straightforward. In America a weird setting is going on. It is depriving America to be America and its land to be land of the Americans. We can blame so many people but that is the blame game. We can act against actions seen and perceived, but is that the right action? Consider that one state alone, the state of Colorado has now said that Trump can no longer be on the ballot for the primary citing the insurrection of January 6th as a reason and it was not unanimous. Now we see “Lawyers for Donald Trump on Wednesday urged the US supreme court to reject a request from the special counsel to expeditiously decide whether he was immune from prosecution over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, contending prosecutors lacked standing to bring the petition.” Lets look at the simple setting. “whether he was immune from prosecution over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results” Is that an admission of guilt? We have two distinct settings here. The first is the inability to prosecute all parties to the United States Capitol attack on January 6th 2021, now almost 3 years ago. American law failed on several levels. Now we see “The papers filed by Trump’s lawyers in essence amounted to an attempt to refreeze the case – and indefinitely delay the March 2024 trial date – after prosecutors sought to bypass the potentially lengthy appeals process by directly asking the nation’s highest court to resolve the matter.” As I personally see it, should the Trump legal team pull this off, it will not be a victory. It will be the first clear sign that America is out there to protect bullies and criminals above all else. It will impact American lives for the largest setting. Their allies will stop being allies, corporations will start moving away from the US because the setting has changed and in other settings will we see that others will take a chance on BRICS and its members to give them a fair shake. 

America has taken ‘Innocent until proven guilty’ to new directions and in new settings. It is not some setting I can prove, but I see that many others feel the same way. America is no longer the dream we pursue, it is a place where the bullies and the woke decide on the fate of others, regardless on what the others want. A new form of Shanghai recruitment a naval activity going back to the 1850’s is now in a new setting. For some to take what they want, not what they are entitled to. It changes the game and when corporations start feeling that impact, they will all leave and then what will the big boys do? When these engineers feel that they are no longer treated fairly places like IBM and Google will need to set up new headquarters, one that is nowhere near America. Yet in that same setting what law will they rely on? That is not an easy question to answer. Because when America crashes, Japan will follow soon, no more than 3 years behind America and that takes a whole range of stages in new directions but the larger stage which would be the past tense of America will see places like Amazon, Apple, Google and IBM to save whatever they can, because the simple truth is that without its engineers, training and service solutions these firms will not get anywhere soon and that opens up new players and all of them non-American players. A stage we would not have deemed realistic before Trump started to mess things up. We see (with laughter) that the American Qanon Shaman now reels against Matt Gaetz, but that is merely the beginning. When these people don’t get ‘their’ promised land chaos will come a lot faster. Even now we see threats against judges in Colorado because they upheld the law. 

This is (as I personally see it) getting bed fast and it will get worse soon after that. Stages in motion, motion through the momentum that cannot be controlled and control though laws that are faltering. It seems a simple line, but it is not that simple and the levels of interactions on multiple levels make for what I would see as escalation towards levels of worse. It is not scientific, but it is my view.  So when we go from one view to another view we see the self destructive path that America is on. It is not an accusation, it is an observation. You see, some see suicide as a right, not because it is a right perse, but anyone is entitled to be stupid. And stupid acts tend to end badly. The stage of all this was seen before 2018 when Jamal Khashoggi went missing. The continuation of ignoring basic facts, the stage of evidence to be replaced by the CIA setting of ‘highly likely’ as evidence, which it never was. And as one stage was replaced by another stage we see more and more presumptions, more emotions and lacking more and more facts. The media is largely to blame for all this and as they delved into the world of digital dollars we saw less facts and more emotions. All these events are connected but not linked. It is my personal view that certain people rely on stakeholders to path the way as they do with corporations and policy makers, but now the impact is larger and these stakeholders are getting in each others way. For them it is ego and the money they gain, but in that setting America has been losing more and more and now they rely on less intelligent administrations to claim their goals and bonuses and that is where the train goes off the rails. It is my view and it might be a flawed one. Yet in all this consider that I saw certain military changes to come in late 2020 and these changes are now upon us. It is not the strongest part, but the clearest one as America is down 20 billion in revenue. So how do you think infrastructures are paid for? That and a debt of 31 trillion makes for a really bad setting. Then they upset their wealthiest allies and let China walk in and capture more and more of that revenue. So how will this end? Well, I do not believe it will take much longer for the beginning of the end to come out, but as the ties between China and BRICS become stronger, Europe needs to make choices and they are on their own side, not on the side of anyone else. All this is happening at the same time in many places and I believe that this is due to stakeholders, although I am not sure how they are doing this, I feel that they are gaining terrain at the expense of everyone else. All due to the fact that cash was king and the law fell short. 

I might be completely wrong but that is how I am seeing this.

Enjoy the day, it is Friday here.

 

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December 13, 2023 · 21:29

Slapped by surprise

This happens to us all and it happened to me today. I was pretty much minding my own business when something on LinkedIn hit me, it hit me square in the jaw. It was the application in another direction, but I contemplated it to apply to gaming in a similar way. You see, this is not an easy story and a lot of you might not get it, that is fine. It is the evolution from RPG to CtLFG. Role Playing games evolving in Close to Life Fantasy Gaming. Confused? That is fine. To get this I need to give you some examples. You are sneaking in a cave and slaughtering all you can and at times you hear “It must be my imagination”, it was one of several things that bothered me. Now this is not on any player and not on Bethesda. They created greatness with Skyrim. It survived three generations (PS3, PS4 and PS5) and has been around since November 11th 2011. More then 12 years. To have one game do this, especially an RPG is nothing less than astounding. As such with that in mind I initially created TES7: Restoration (the initial design was from 2015). 

In this the foundation was set with Cyrodiil (Oblivion), to make it work that map would need to be 3 times larger on the X and Y axis, making the map 900% of the previous one. The imperial city would be similar that much bigger, cities would be somewhat bigger, more people and in the end we would connect Skyrim to this and optionally whatever TES6 would be, but that would be options. Restoration required both Valenwood and Elsweyr to be added as that would be the setting for the story and main quest. Yet the setting would be larger than just these two parts, missions that cover all the areas. A lot more side missions and even side quest lines. Now we get to the evolution part. To avoid grinding I used IP originally by Vint Cerf, but now applied to gaming would make it an innovation patent and now we are off to the races. Yet something happened./ Microsoft bought Bethesda and I will not help losers, so I made parts of all this Public domain with the setting that this was to be exclusive Amazon Luna/Tencent Handheld. I wanted these two to have an edge over Microsoft/Bethesda. That was the first setting. 

Now the slap
As such today I got slapped by surprise by someone named Willem Koenders gave LinkedIn a new setting to BI in data. It has an offensive side and a defensive side. 

It is brilliant. I can see the stage of several issues becoming a thing of the past. Rollback issues, especially in data with second and third tier connections would have been a nightmare, especially to rebuild some of these connections. As I see it, that is a thing of the past with this, rollback becomes repair with a second datafile upload. And in the short time I looked at it, there would be additional benefits. Now apply this to new and advanced RPG gaming (CtLFG). You see, the old ways will not work on larger RPG games, it would require cloud gaming and that is where the new strains become the power of GaaS (Gaming as a Service). You see, evolved gaming (RPG) no longer has trigger points perse, but a combination of a narrative point, a location point as well as a quest trigger. It becomes too complex for the PS5, but not for cloud gaming. That is where the game takes of in new directions and new dimensions. 

As such my mind went into overdrive. You see, I had focussed on the stories and the interactions, but I had not considered the data side of this all. The image by Willem Koenders gave me that setting and it could be a much larger setting in cloud gaming too. Yes, it is always about the larger part, but consider that we always must look forward. We cannot play Skyrim forever. Now consider (Skyrim)4 and see where that gets you. In addition, as it is cloud gaming new quests could be added over time as well. A nightmare option in any console. With cloud gaming it is done before you know it and available just as fast. And the setting in a new game would be tremendous. You see grinding ends, it becomes a challenge every time around and that setting reflects in a multiple of ways. With the new data setting you could get thousands, if not hundred of thousands of conversations. Consider a city not with a few dozen NPC characters, but with 1,000 NPC characters. It allows for a lot more options. In addition to that, the setting of friend and foe changes. You now end up with friends, unsubstantiated gossip, boasts, lies, and foes. A new setting in adventure gaming. Suddenly a personality with charisma becomes a lot more important, in addition to this so is the setting towards corrupt guards, people luring you towards traps and walking blindly into them is never a good idea. 

An evolved setting towards gaming and I reckon that this is merely the start. Any indie developer with a clear head and clear direction can grow and take serious market share away from Bethesda (and of course Microsoft). 

Now consider the image again. Consider on the offensive side Customer insight (NPC character) linked to analytics which becomes available choices (lore, conversations and actions), on the defensive side we also add NPC character, but now connected to city laws (compliance) and actions based on YOUR activities (stealing, walking, sneaking, killing) as such sneaking through any place now has impact on that population. In addition it is ‘short-term’ impact, yet when you do that again you get recognised quicker. And from there we now get narratives (storylines and conversations) as well as locations (shop owner, home owner). There is a longer impact to actions.  And leaving the house is no longer a ‘reset’ to activities. I set this to a much larger effect in out of town locations (what some call caves, mines and so forth). As I see it, Vint Cerf had no idea what his IP could do in that setting, but that is the way the cookie crumbles at times.

In this my brain is still reeling with all the thoughts it is creating (even now), but it is time to snore like a sawmill and greet Thursday, which is less then 3 hours away at present. It is still 25 degrees, I am melting. Time to snore.

Enjoy your day.

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