Tag Archives: China

December 29, 2024 · 22:00

At the close of a year

This might be the last article this year (no promises). I have been haunted by a weird dream, but that is not what this is about. You see, the army recognition group gave us yesterday (at https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2024/saudi-arabia-eyes-up-to-100-turkish-kaan-fighter-jets-as-us-made-f-35-remains-inaccessible) ‘Saudi Arabia eyes up to 100 Turkish Kaan fighter jets as US-made F-35 remains inaccessible.’ I know nothing of this plane, so I am not going in that direction. The setting that the US set the inability of the F35 being handed to Saudi hands is worthy of responding to. You see, the pricing of the F35 is set to “$102.1 million for the F-35C.” This means that America lifted their nose at 10 – 25 billion of hard needed income. The planes, the support and engineering surplus and a few other options. I expected that China would ‘swoop’ in to get that money. It is decently plausible that their were more reasons. I am merely setting that this could also mean the end of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), you see, airbases on foreign ground are meant for allies and America has priced them out of that corner. As I see it Anthony Blinken has done away with that option. You see, only two months ago we got “US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday sought to make headway with Saudi Arabia on” whatever ‘his’ administration is ‘worried’ about. You need to have an ally for that and the fact that the F35 has been ‘unavailable’ since 2012. That is over 12 years, so as the F35 faces being optionally phased out by 2030, they lost one of their biggest customers and provisional ally in the Arabic peninsula as I personally see it. 

And America? Well, who needs an ally who is never there? That is the short and sweet part of this all and for Turkey this might be the sweet deal of the century. At some point the UAE and Egypt will also require 5th gen stealth fighters. This will make it harder for America and China to get traction. I never expected that Turkey was on that level, but that shows you what I know of this field.

And this is not the first time America, Europe and China enter behind the fishnet only to end up with nothing. This potential purchase follows Saudi Arabia’s $3.1 billion agreement with Türkiye in 2023 for the acquisition of 60 Baykar AKINCI unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), set for delivery in 2025 and 2026.

So, when was the last time major governments walked away from a potential 15 billion deal? America might shout tariffs and the upcoming said expansion with their 51st state (Canada), but they forget that Canada is part of a Commonwealth and in their views (the Commonwealth) it amounts to a direct assault on the Commonwealth. So when was the last time a nation was engaged with the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, India, South Africa and at least two dozen more. If they reject all imports from America, the American economy goes the way of the dodo a lot faster than the dodo did. For China it sounds like a prolonged Christmas. You see, if they get traction with the Commonwealth, a desire they never thought realistic, but going after their largest member Canada might set that deal to nominal.

That as the rejection of billions set a dangerous premise for America and Saudi Arabia can play hard to get in that instance. So the next threat by the president elect Trump will set a minefield around (presumed) Marco Rubio making his job next to impossible. 

But we will see what will happen. In the meantime we should send a congratulatory card to Turkey for this achievement.

And of course the card for the next tenant of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), but that is likely to follow in 2025/2026. As I see it, the next two years are close to essential for the next administration to avoid a governmental garage sale. But what do I know?

Still, in retrospect the dream still bugs me. The dream was a job at ADNOC, in Abu Dhabi. They had an AS400 running SPSS 6.1.3 and it had been gathering dust. It wasn’t working and the people at IBM said it was the fault of ADNOC. In the dream I merely had to remove 2 lines (reading ASCII data), two variables Alphanumeric were making a mess of things and removing the two lines solved 96% of the issue. 96% was fixed in the first hour (well for one job). I needed two additional hours to align the alphanumeric fields. And that took two hours to work out, I used Excel for that (the one Microsoft program Microsoft got right). And with that the first month was back on track. A weird setting, as I know next to nothing of ADNOC, I know that they are in oil, and that is all. I haven’t thought of that program in over 2 decades, so what gives? Well, in part technical support at SPSS was perhaps one of the most fulfilling jobs. But the powers that be didn’t see me as IBM material. O well, such is life. 

Time to head to the end of the year and see what 2025 will bring. 

Have a great day and the optional conclusion of a great year.

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December 12, 2024 · 17:44

Sheep to the slaughter

There was a view, I agreed but not for the same reasons. I agree that Brexit was needed but for different reasons. You see, I saw the EU corruption for what it was. A setting where banks had their own little club, the club of 22. And there we saw Mario Draghi was a welcomed sight. I was hesitant to see it for good. Even as Mark Carney had its own ideas, he was right. Brexit was the way and the way was going to be hard. Now we see the Guardian embraces the story ‘Majority of Brexit voters ‘would accept free movement’ to access single market’, the carrot for idiots. There was no free movement, there was merely what others would allow us to do and that free movement comes at a price. So as we are given “A majority of Britons who voted to leave the EU would now accept a return to free movement in exchange for access to the single market, according to a cross-Europe study that also found a reciprocal desire in member states for closer links with the UK.” Yes but at a price. Now that the ‘settings’ are reset, the stupidity of the EU opens up again. The EU was on the verge of collapse as they are in denial of the consequences. You see we are given “85% of the EU’s debt has been incurred since 2020” but the story was worse, much worse. The debt of the EU has been calculated at €14,300,832,000,000 it was that bad (still is), the breaking through Brexit made sure that the UK was no longer held to account to that debt. Now that the trolls and corrupt ‘friends’ of the Euro got their stories to account going on since 31 January 2020 they finally won and the reset is about to take place (the fact that the idiot Keir Starmer assisted in the matter was a great help to the EU). What is the matter? Well in part they are right, the UK benefits from the strength of the EU matters on one side, the opposing setting is also true. A family with 27 family members and I reckon that 6 or them are nothing less than a newer version of the village idiot. They have a voice, but they also were chomping at the bit to get access to the credit card of the EU and that is not a good thing. The second that the banks come in, the setting will be final. The Greeks are loving this. There is every chance that the Greeks will blow out their debt again. The reason is simple, they don’t have what it takes and they take what everyone else has. That was an I personally think is the remaining setting. They are not alone, but they were the most visible one in 2019. Now that stage will erupt again. The EU doesn’t have the checks and balances it needs to stop that level of idiocy. 

We are also given “The report found about half of Britons believed greater engagement with the EU was the best way to bolster the UK economy (50%), strengthen security (53%), effectively manage migration (58%), tackle climate change (48%), allow Ukraine to stand up to Russia (48%), and for Britain to stand up to the US (46%) and China (49%).” My issue becomes. What data? How was the data collected? When we see ‘effectively manage migration (58%)’ how many want to push their migration numbers to UK? How many are are anti China minded? As we are given ‘for Britain to stand up to China (49%)’, are they sure they meant ‘for Britain to stand up for China’ and in all this the new markers are presented and not given towards the Middle East. That becomes a nastier kettle of fish. In the end, when the tally is shaped there will be anger towards the media for not letting us know the truth. I reckon that at some point media moguls will go the way of Brian Thompson but now with a mere rope and a tree as support for their distrust of the media. We are almost at that tipping point and reversing Brexit will give us the stage in 12 months or less. At that point the finger pointing starts and the media will lose whatever support they had. As I personally see it, the largest issue is seen in the last paragraph. With: “The Brexit-era divisions have faded and both European and British citizens realise that they need each other to get safer. Governments now need to catch up with public opinion and offer an ambitious reset.” One side is the media “British citizens realise that they need each other to get safer” and this is largely because a false picture was given for years and as this is shown to be wrong, the people will go for the throat of the media. This is no longer the 90’s where the media had overwhelming powers. Now they are held to account and optionally with their lives. As for the ‘ambitious reset’ this is largely enabled by banks and their need for the reset of their credit cards. What comes next will be the stuff of nightmares. It won’t happen directly, it will be a soft landing, like landing in a pool of molten lead. Within a year the UK will get their new demands handed to them and that will be the game, the EU (Germany) will win and suddenly they will they will side with Russian demands. As such the Ukraine will suffer and the EU will suffer too. The Americans will hand Russia through the Republican Party. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to say the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine (42% vs. 13%) (source: Pew research Centre). And when that comes to blow, America will distance from the EU. It was too hard and they have too little cash left. A setting that was always come to pass. As such the anti-China sentiment was in favour of America, as they pushed their goods. So how long do you think that setting will last? In all this, the solution to embrace the Middle East and China was a larger option then anyone thinks. It gave the EU breathing space against Russia. Now the UK is in the mix and the only option (I believe they have) is to open the door to BRICS and China. It don’t think it is a good option, but it is better to see that then to see the new maps of 2040’s stating Netherlands Oblast (or more likely Holland Oblast). That danger is more and more real as America lets the Republican setting of “U.S. support for Ukraine” getting smothered to death.

As I personally see it, Europeans are leading themselves as lambs to the slaughter. What a disgusting end to the foundry of civilisation (1095 – 2040). 

Could I be wrong? I hope I am, but the wrong people got to speak at media events and I am keeping a list of media people who are leading the run towards the gallows. Like the Dutch writer Marga Minco who wrote Bitter herbs (1957). As the character in that book who through the personal inside of people decided who was handed to the devils and who went the way of angels. I reckon that not many media people are going the way of angels. And those howling that they merely viewed that the people had a right to know will see the digital age as the one serving them, not the people. There needs to be a tally, especially of the media.

Have a great day and if you are with the media, the gallows are down the lane to the left, overlooking the emptiness of the fields of bankruptcy.

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December 10, 2024 · 19:46

The revolving question

That is at times in almost everything the setting. We might all go nuts about ‘mismanaging’ settings and I am to a certain degree not impervious to that setting. But after writing ‘The losing bet’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/12/08/the-losing-bet/) I started to mull things over. You see, people like Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan are not stupid. But there is a dangerous calm as people are given the questions and are given ‘a kind of answer’ and Microsoft is massively adapt in setting the stage to THEIR advantage and I suddenly realised a simpler setting. When was the question asked of Microsoft ‘What is AI?’ And ‘What is the premise of what you call AI?’ With ‘What is the data setting of AI?’ In this I reckon that some eyes will open. We see all settings of Ai mentioned, but the clear definition and a comparison to the setting that Alan Turing gave us 1950, moreover together with John McCarthy gave us the Turing test. So how far did people dig into this part of the equation? You might disagree with me on my stance of AI and that is okay. We do not all see eye to eye on a whole range of matters. But in this, in a Texas Hold’em style of business poker it becomes increasingly important to set the stage of definitions and hold them up to the light. In that game Microsoft doesn’t get to spin out of the stage ad blame it all on miscommunication. In that stage Microsoft has to hide into the margins or come out into the light. The second stage is likely and very pleasing to my ego.

You see, when people are part of a $1.5 billion investment there are people who are not pleased with that fact and they will nitpick any document handed to them. One of the oldest settings was ‘What are the definitions?’ Was in older days the way to see what players were up to and that stage got a little lost in populism and ‘fast’ presentations appeasing to the spending player. You might think that it is Microsoft paying, but you would be wrong. The UAE and G42 are investing time and resources to make it all work and I foresee that players like Microsoft (not just them) are trying to play fast and loose with definitions so that they can bank the first agreements and then turn back and hide behind ‘miscommunications’ after that fact. Which is why we have the clear setting of definitions. As such making all players answer that question gives a first setting. You see, there is no AI at present and that comes out at that very start. And no matter how clever LLM’s and Deeper Machine Learning is, the setting becomes data and who is responsible of that data. Now we get different players out and in the full-grown light. People like Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan will then immediately see who is endangering the security of the UAE and they have no sense of humour at that point. No matter how some see the ‘opportunity’ of a life time, the moment the national pride comes into view of danger, the UAE will demand clarity on matters and I reckon some will ‘trivialise’ matters and when you ‘invest’ $1.5 billion there is an issue with trivialisation (which is why I referred to a Texas Hold’em style). Now some will say that I am bluffing and I want to be ‘inserted’ as a possible player. You would be wrong. I do not want to be linked to a player like Microsoft in any way. Google, Amazon, Adobe, IBM and Oracle definitely, Microsoft not at all. As such I am not anti-American (a claim that was thrown at me several times in the past). I am anti-stupid (mostly) and when you start trivialising $1.5 billion I see you as stupid, and no matter what I think of Microsoft, they are not overly stupid. In some things yes, in other things (like playing black letter law stages) not that much. 

But all that becomes moot when some players release the definition lists to all we will see how silly my thoughts are, because these definitions go through the entire project and there is no way they get changed unless all parties openly agree. Oh and before you think that this is a ploy. You might be right. You see, I do not know where China is at present ad I would live to find out. So what is better then Microsoft setting the entire definition list to paper and release it all? I reckon we will see a Chinese response less then 48 hours alter. 

The revolving question is an almost needed stage because definitions on paper is what matters, if it isn’t written down it doesn’t exist. That has been a matter long before the Prince by Niccolò Machiavelli. I reckon it goes back to the days of Gaius Julius Caesar Augustus (63BC-14). So this setting was known for 2000 years and with all the turbo presentations and innuendo I get the feeling it got lost in the woodwork of it all. As such I thought it was a great idea to remind people of that. 

Silly me, have a great day.

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December 8, 2024 · 22:46

The losing bet

That happens, we make bets. We all do in one way or another. Some merely hurt our pride and/or our ego. Some deals hurt others and there are other settings, too many to mention. But Reuters alerted me three hours ago on a deal that will have a lot of repercussions. The article ‘US clears export of advanced AI chips to UAE under Microsoft deal, Axios says’ (at https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/advanced-ai-chips-cleared-export-uae-under-microsoft-deal-axios-reports-2024-12-07/) is one that has a few more repercussions than you imagined it had. The global loser (Microsoft) has set up a setting where we see “The U.S. government has approved the export of advanced artificial intelligence chips to a Microsoft-operated facility in the United Arab Emirates as part of the company’s highly-scrutinised partnership with Emirati AI firm G42, Axios reported on Saturday, citing two people familiar with the deal.” Microsoft is as desperate as I think they are with this deal. They probably pushed the anti-China agenda and made mention of the $1.5 billion dollar investment deal. And as we are given “The deal, however, was scrutinised after U.S. lawmakers raised concerns G42 could transfer powerful U.S. AI technology to China. They asked for a U.S. assessment of G42’s ties to the Chinese Communist Party, military and government before the Microsoft deal advances.” And we are also given “The approved export license requires Microsoft to prevent access to its facility in the UAE by personnel who are from nations under U.S. arms embargoes or who are on the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security’s Entity List, the Axios report said.” In this I have a few issues.

In the first there is no AI, not yet anyway as such the investment is going the way like water under a bridge. Microsoft knows this as such they are betting big and they have the US government backing them. In the worst case it will be the US government putting up the $1.5 billion themselves and with the anti-China sentiment that is a likely result from this.

In the second the setting that Microsoft is banking on is a loop setting with multiple exists. Yesterday the Financial Times informed us ‘OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching ‘AGI’ clause with Microsoft’ (at https://www.ft.com/content/2c14b89c-f363-4c2a-9dfc-13023b6bce65) the events are piling up and as I see it Microsoft is on the edge if desperation. You see, it all hangs on the simplest setting that there is no AI (not yet at least). What we have is a setting with LLM’s and Deeper Machine Learning and it is clever and it is a ‘optional’ wholesome solution to a lot of paths. But it is no Artificial Intelligence. You see, as all the laws are part of ethics and ‘AI’ people look around and think that there is ‘awareness’ of solutions. There are not. It is all data managed, a somewhat clever solution to people seeking an aware-like solution in data and some kind of knowledge discovery mode. It all could be clever, but it is still no AI and at some point certain people will dig it out and I reckon the UAE will be ahead of it all. Microsoft and its Ferengi approach of ‘When you get their money you never give it back’ comes with nice loopholes. You think that Microsoft made the ‘investment’ now here is the cracker. There is nothing stopping Microsoft of putting it in a ‘bad bank’ approach and make it all tax deductible and then some. And when the “artificial general intelligence” (AGI) clause is dropped there will be all kinds of attention from all over the place and no one is looking at the details of whatever they consider AI and what Alan Turing clearly considered to be AI. When the people that matter start looking and digging the days of Microsoft will be numbered. Another bubble game created and now that they have ‘enticed’ the wrong kind of people they will want their pound of dollars. And as we are given “The Biden administration in October required the makers of the largest AI systems to share details about them with the U.S. government. G42 earlier this year said it was actively working with U.S. partners and the UAE’s government to comply with AI development and deployment standards, amid concerns about its ties to China.” And in that setting Microsoft decided to be the governmental bitch to say the least. And all these media moguls are so loosely playing along and what will happen when someone digs into this. They will play dumb and say “We didn’t comprehend the technology” and it wasn’t hard. I saw it months ago, if not nearly almost two years ago. And the media was stupid? No, the media goes the way of the digital dollar, the way of the emotional flame. So as the field opens, we see all kinds of turmoil with Microsoft claiming to be the ‘saviour’ all nice and kind (of a sort), but when you look at the setting, it is my personal speculated feeling that Microsoft wouldn’t have made this move unless they had very little moves left. And in this setting the one player is forgotten. China, how far along are their ‘designs’? And in all this what are their plans? We seem to be given the setting that it is all American, but as the media cannot be trusted what is the ACTUAL setting? I have no clue, but in a world this interactive, China cannot be far away. 

And if there are people who disagree, that is fair, but the actual setting is largely unknown. So when we get to the last paragraph which gives us “Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Company, the UAE’s ruling family and U.S. private equity firm Silver Lake hold stakes in G42. The company’s chairman, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, is the UAE’s national security advisor and the brother of the UAE’s president.” Consider this small fact. Microsoft seems to be ‘investing’ all whilst the anti-China rhetoric is given. Do you think that anyone who is the National Security Advisor (of the UAE) hasn’t seen through a lot of this? So what was the plan from Microsoft? I am at a loss, but with the AI setting the way it actually is none of this makes sense. Do they really believe that Microsoft is any kind of solution in this setting? Simply look at the accusation that Microsoft has also been criticised for the perceived declining quality and reliability of its software. That is your partner in so-called AI? Just a thought to consider.

Well, you all have a lovely Sunday. My Monday is a mere 80 minutes away.

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December 5, 2024 · 17:07

The price of debt.

That is what I am looking at, the price of debt. You see, they are all hailing that the US economy is strong. One voice (Goldman Sachs), the one that lost it all in 2007 told the world that America would be strong at 2.5% (somewhere I read it). To all it sounds nice and I like nice, but I also query a system that is to my (non-economic view) is rigged. As we see images all over the place on how good things are supposed to be, consider:

We see the setting as tax collected. For 2023 is was “The US government collected nearly $4.7 trillion in gross taxes during the 2023 fiscal year, which is a 15.5% decrease from 2022. The IRS collected taxes from a variety of sources”, now for some it is a little more then milk money. And that sounds nice, but the other side has “As of October 2024, the United States government’s monthly interest rate on its debt is 3.3%. The average interest rate for 2024 is 3.32%, and the total debt is $35.46 trillion.” Consider the simple setting of 3.32% of $35.46 trillion. This gives us $1,170,180,000,000 dollar annually. Which would be ‘liveable’ were it not for the simple fact that this is ONLY interest. The debt remains. And now we have a problem. You see the interest is is a simple 24.89% of the entire taxable revenue and it was 15.5% less from 2022. Do you now see the problem? 25% of all taxable revenue goes to the banks that carry the debt. The federal government spent $6.75 trillion in FY 2022. This means that they spend over 30% to much, more than they had and if there was no debt we could argue, but at this setting we are faced with the simple fact that $6.75 trillion was spent over an available amount of $3.5 trillion, which is getting worse and worse. As such we could surmise that the debt will increase with a little over 3 trillion over spending over last year alone. As I see it America is done for. And the setting worsens with the optional crushing of Google in 2025 (by breaking up that firm) which give Huawei their first global win. Then the defence industry is losing more and more revenue to China and this sets a larger premise. In that setting we see on one hand “The A&D industry generated $425 billion in economic value, representing 1.6 percent of the 2023 nominal GDP in the U.S.”, yet in this we already seeing revenue shifting to China in this year alone and more revenue goes to Europe. For Saudi Arabia alone this sets the bar at “In 2024, the Saudi Arabian defense budget is worth $71.7 billion and will grow at a CAGR of more than 8% during 2025-2029.” Yet other sources give us that “Saudi Arabia estimates military spending will be 15 percent lower than budgeted this year” as such we could surmise that this implies that Saudi Arabia by itself would spend $10 billion less. Not a biggie you say, but the other side is that China now has a little over 10% on that slice of delicious gunpowder baked pie. Making the loss for America more. As such we see an annual loss of $16 billion in one year alone from one customer. As such, what would be the books on India, Japan, Taiwan, Pakistan and Indonesia? If we see these picture, we see a dangerous escalation towards some fictive nil revenue for America. Fictive because that will never happen, but as the largest players seek economic stability they will spend less and take other jobs ‘in-house’ as the expression goes and America has been too reluctant to appease to that state of mind. And now China will step in to offer just that. As I see it, the question on the dollar setting was wrong. We are given “As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD” against the tariffs threat by president elect Trump. The actual question would become “How long could the US Dollar keep standing?” You see, as the debt becomes a millstone around the neck of the US administration, we need to consider that some nations will seek shelter from the fallout that this setting. In 2017, on March 17th I wrote ‘The finality of French freedom’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/), I set the comparison of the Euro like a barge kept in balance by 4 strong economies. UK, France, Germany and a combined economic anchor. The UK was lost and there was a setting when the French anchor would be lost too. The Euro could not survive a setting with two anchors. A simple equation. Now with the Dollar under attack the Euro could face near certain scuttling. As such the Dollar has an influence there. China seemingly doesn’t care, but the other players who make up a combined anchor might switch sides when they merely look at their own currency. And the debt? They will not care. And as such the dollar faces a lot more than the bully tactics of choice. They will need to up the game by a lot, because when one goes, so will the other and that puts the livelihood and liveability of 784 million people at the markers. 100,000 of them will do fine, but that represents a simple 0.01275348% of people who are likely to make it (outside of the EU and USA), so when were that good statistics? 

The price of debt was always there, but the media has been eager and willing to hide those facts through BS and spin and soon when the people catch on (the other 99.987% of people), the live of playing the media courtesan will be one of the most dangerous of them all. People remember. And it was a simple equation for the media. “You can fool all the people some of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time but you can never fool all of the people all of the time” A simple setting I knew to be true as early as the early 80’s. So how long did they have at most? Some are already falling in the bad light and when the people realise that they weren’t eating potatoes, but turnips. They will become massively enraged. 

A simple setting I have known to become reality at some point. So when are we given the goods? When the interest of the debt of America is shown as a setting against the budget and at this time it is around 25%, Americans need to realise that budgets need to diminish by at least 30%, so at what point do the people realise that the simplicity of the matter is that their money is about to be gone?

Have a lovely day.

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December 4, 2024 · 20:11

The premise was already set

There were some ‘noises’ on what I wrote yesterday and the ‘ludicrous’ setting of Huawei. Well, lets have a look then. The Corner (at https://thecorner.eu/news-spain/the-government-authorizes-saudi-stc-to-purchase-9-9-of-telefonica/117825/) gave us a few days ago ‘Government Authorises Saudi STC To Purchase 9.9% Of Telefonica’ It does not sound like much, but in that setting together with Egypt (as I reported in 2023) the Saudi Telecom Company was already aligning with Egypt and now as it is settling in Spain, Saudi Arabia has now a direct line of communications with the larger part of Europe. They already had Portugal and optionally also have parts of the United Group (details are not known to me).

Then when we see merely a day ago we get (at https://www.rcrwireless.com/20241202/featured/stc-huawei-5g-saudi-arabia) ‘stc, Huawei to enhance 5G connectivity in Saudi Arabia’ and now we get “Stc noted that this solution boosts operational speed by 200% compared to earlier models. Saudi telco stc and Huawei have announced the commercial rollout of SuperLink, a digital solution designed to enhance 5G connectivity across remote areas in Saudi Arabia.” So whilst we get the softer message from Nokia on 5G and we should forget 5G, because their 6G will be da bomb (slight personal tweaking). Yes, always look at the horizon whilst Huawei is upgrading 5G to something that resembles 5G+. Another fine mess the makers of yesterday’s technology bring us. There is however no timeline for 6G and whilst we hear all the wild stories, I have to argue that the organisations that remained in the dark for the longest of time, now has da bomb? I call that a dead mans bluff. Like what they had done before and nothing came from it. Now that China and Saudi Arabia are setting the new marker we see the setting I warned about in ‘The question remains’ on the 21st of December 2022, two years ago I warned of this setting and Now suddenly we get the Nokia news? (OK it has been out for some time), but we haven’t seen anything out in the open with tests and so forth. In that same time Huawei set the proof all over the place and with HarmonyOS they can go to town, especially if Google is forced to break itself up. And as others are forcing Huawei out, we merely see other telecom companies taking the Huawei lead and offering it to customers. We can see all the ‘bigger’ telecom brands heeding the words from the US and so far it lacked any evidence. New the stage will be set that Saudi Arabia could offer a cheaper solution to people in Europe, the Middle East and Asia a solution with Huawei. Now, we get the setting that the larger Telecom companies will have to compete for the same customers. And in that setting 33 million in Saudi Arabia, a slice of 115 million in Egypt and slices from Portugal and Spain giving them slices of 60 million people. And that is before we consider the fallout all over Europe. You see, in the end these other players need people to fuel part of their profits. The anti-China rhetoric from Trump with the added anti-Huawei rhetoric will fall flat. In the near future they have the numbers and now others are in trouble. I reckon that soon Saudi Arabia will make a play for other Vodafone areas. I have no idea how far they get, but any Telecom company that starts not making their numbers will jump on that churn bandwagon. All this whilst Huawei is breaking new boundaries. So whilst someone reported the great success Nokia is making others make mention that the new setting is coming in 2027 (a presumptuous setting as I haven’t see the full papers). So what of 2025 and 2026? A two year bluff sounds nice, but Huawei is giving us “Stc noted that this solution boosts operational speed by 200% compared to earlier models and significantly extends 5G reach without requiring extensive infrastructure, making it ideal for connecting remote regions efficiently. The solution also improves deployment efficiency by reducing antenna requirements by 67% compared to traditional single-band parallel link methods, lowering tower rental costs.” A more than normal cost efficient solution and it is being rolled out in Saudi Arabia. I reckon that the UAE will follow soon thereafter and in that setting Egypt, Portugal and Spain are likely next. This gives them slices of a multiple times the Saudi population and in that setting with Egypt in their banner the Saudi 5G solution will turn heads and put the other players to shame. It would be a world first that Saudi solutions are cheaper and outperforming other telecom companies for at least 2 years. And that is until the people figure out that the Nokia solutions becomes too expensive. The rot in an economy also implies that the people need cheaper solutions and Nokia is less likely to deliver at that time. As I see it all Saudi Arabia needs to do is to figure out how to add France and Germany to that pool and the Huawei battle will be decided in favour of Huawei. Oh, and whilst you are brooding on that. Consider “Huawei technology must be removed from the UK’s 5G public networks by the end of 2027 under legal documents handed to broadband and mobile operators today” I have NEVER ever seen ample documentation that Huawei was an actual danger. It was proxy tantrums from an American administration trying to bully others to hate Huawei too. Now that the stage changes and when it does (no if it does), Germany will have to turn the rudder in their decisions. I reckon that France will immediately follow suit (a speculation, I have no evidence). All that and now it comes with a directive from Saudi Arabia, who owns a stake in several telecom corporations all over Europe and Africa.

Do you still think I was wrong (or talking shit). The evidence has been out in the open since 2020. It is the tail-side of having no economy left at present. And as I see it, the telecom companies will go for each others throats and in the meantime the STC will keep on buying stakes in the other companies. So take that setting and introduce some unaffordable 6G future solution from Nokia. Are things adding up yet? And don’t forget, 6G might be actually da bomb but it is well over 2 years away, so how are your finances holding up in 2 years? Mine won’t survive, I reckon a lot of others will have a similar problem soon enough.

This gets me to the final push. It was seen in Satellite Pro Me (at https://satelliteprome.com/news/stcs-job-attachment-program-surges-by-72/) where we see ‘STC’s ‘Job Attachment Program’ surges by 72%’ that is even better then the bulk of telecom companies had 20 years ago. As I see it, Saudi Arabia will need a massive staff expansion and retrenching of current staff as we are given “The programme offers STC employees the opportunity to gain hands-on experience, explore career paths, and develop professional skills.” As I speculate to see it, is that the STC is going places and needs staff to do so. The countries I mentioned will need extensive upgrading and a much better service and call centre setting and that is just for starters. As I see it the STC is the largest Telecom employer before the end of 2025. Oh, and that is before we even see where France and Italy are in that setting. This could be the larger push into Europe and I reckon that this is fight that Huawei is happy to see Saudi Arabia do at present. I hope I haven’t oversimplified it for you too much.

Have a great day and good morning to Vancouver where it is now 01:10.

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December 3, 2024 · 22:58

Bully tactics

The BBC (LinkedIn also) gave us a story. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgrwj0p2dd9o) is giving us ‘Trump threatens 100% tariff on Brics nations if they try to replace dollar’. We are given “US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on a bloc of nine nations if they were to create a rival currency to the US dollar. “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” Trump wrote on social media on Saturday.”Now we can shout high and low, but the simple setting is that this is merely the second setting on the line that the good times are over in the US and things are about to get a lot worse. The simplest setting to consider is that if these facts present themselves the first hurdle will crash the little economy that they have. Let me explain. If President elect Trump goes through with that. Stuff in a place called Walmart will become close to twice as expensive. This implies that Walmart will drop all goods from China and India. As such others will have to provide, which will turn out to be close to impossible. Consider that Walmart employs 2,100,000 people and as I see it close to 60% will be out of a job then. Walmart has a net income of 16 billion dollars. It comes from $648 billion dollars. Now all these Chinese and Indian goods would get a 100% Tarif. So what happens when all those goods get a 100% surcharge? The American administration will drown Walmart into oblivion. Add to that the Google issues and China will get near clean run on running the global economy. So why wouldn’t they push for a Yuan to become the new central currency? And in that process slam the American administration as well? I reckon that China is chomping at the bits to get started on that. With the hardships given to Google, Huawei gets a smashing option to take market shares from Google in Europe the Middle East and Asia. Apple will get hit, but not as much. Then we get the Walmart and its wannabe’s who rely on cheap goods from China and India and they will all pretty much lose whatever they had. When we see Walmarts closing all over America many will realise that the game for America is up. I did mention this danger for well over a decade. When you let the debt run out of control with no exit strategy there is no real solution coming. I saw that a mile away, so why didn’t these overpaid economists? Now we get the new AI bubble and soon people will realise that it is merely another gimmick. When the revenue stays away from the books, when these revenues get pushed back again and again the third step will be reached. So president elect can bully as much as they can, but the pole position was missed and whomever is in control have no solutions to offer other then austerity that goes beyond anything Wall Street could ever have predicted and the party is over now. Don’t worry the family members to Sam Walton and Bud Walton will be fine. They can relocate to a nice place where they can spend their money. The other 2.1 million are royally screwed. I will not blame any Walton. They played the economy game and they played it well, they have options. The bulk will not. And when the dollar is replaced, banks, retirement companies will as I suspect buckle as well. The impact of a $36,000,000,000,000 debt. The impact will go slow but it would be undeniable. As BRICS decides on another currency they will attract several other players and the European parties will consider the change and they will do what is in the best interest of their Euro, they will not care about the US dollar for one second. That is the reality that was pretty much spelled out half a decade ago. I get that America will try to do what is best for America, but that option was nulled when parties decided to break up Google. That was the first step towards the end. And now Huawei will be the best option for many players. So as the economic map will be redrawn, we will see a new horizon with India, China, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia at the head of this new horizon. In that new map there is no longer a mention of America, the US dollar will remain a little while longer until all other nations have dumped trillions in dollar bonds. That will be the trigger that ends the world economy as it currently is. 

Have a great day today, tomorrow is the midweek and a mere three weeks until Christmas.

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December 2, 2024 · 00:04

When it rains, it pours

That was the very first thought I had when I was confronted with the opinion piece in the Middle East Monitor (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241129-saudi-arabia-abandons-pursuit-of-us-defence-treaty-over-israel-stalemate/) where we see ‘Saudi Arabia abandons pursuit of US defence treaty over Israel stalemate’. I have said it before and I will say it again. The US needs to stop their stop gap resolution of “We can do this, if we can have….” That is a setting that is past tense. America needs to open all valves to get any revenue out of Saudi Arabia (and other nations there). Now that we see “Saudi Arabia is now pushing for a more modest military cooperation agreement, two Saudi and four Western officials told Reuters” the US needs to stop its appeasement trajectory. On the plus side China is pretty happy with that flawed approach from America. There is every chance that China will open the flood gates and let Saudi Arabia go nuts on the Chengdu J-20. 

Is this a given? Nope, but for others to see Saudi Arabia embracing the J-20 is the first sign that America is about to lose several contracts. Not all (it fits with the modest military cooperation agreement setting) I predicted a loss of 40% towards the US defense contracts and so far there are indications that 30 billion left American shores for Europe and China (unverified numbers). But the first stage has been reached. And the setting changes if this does happen. The American loans are set to a 90%-95% fulfilment of contracts and there are larger consideration that America will at best get 60%-65% restated for America. And it gets worse for the US, Saudi Arabia has stated to grow its national defense settings and if China makes that happen all whilst Antony Blinken remains in the appeasement setting, the losses will get worse. I speculate a lot worse, but I don’t have access to anything reliable for the numbers in that game. As such, I need to add the ‘speculation’ label as I haven’t been connected to defence parties for 42 years. 

We are also given “Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has again made recognition of Israel conditional on it taking concrete steps to create a Palestinian State” I understand that setting, but I personally belief that this should be done after the eradication of Hamas. Saudi Arabia has been under attack through Iranian proxies for too long and as such the three terrorist organisations Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi their eradication becomes a near essential. You want to doubt this? That’s fair but the essential setting becomes that Iran wants to stop the achievements of Neom (including Sindalah, the Line, Trojena, Oxagon and Magna). At some point One of these three parties will be added to the work roster of them and they will introduce small flaws, flaws that might not be noticed now, but in a year or two when things start to go wrong, the costs will enormous. An Iran will be quiet for a larger share of the table that is how it starts and Saudi Arabia is too far ahead now. If we want to protect the achievements of Saudi Arabia eradicating Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah forces becomes the larger setting. All those weakhearted lefties will argue that these people are really sorry and should be forgiven. I say hell with that and eradicate them all. Or have you all forgotten how Saudi Arabia was on the verge of setting the larger stage to include Israel? Some will say that Hamas was brilliant and I say that this is the final straw setting the stage of eradication for these three puppets of Iran. And Iran knows that Israel is about to settle the attacks on the territory of Israel and that would escalate things even further. Now that will happen in two stages. In the first the attacks that Hezbollah will vie for and the threats from Iran takes it even further. The danger here is that Iran could ‘press’ Houthi forces further and that would force the hand of Saudi Arabia. In that stage China could proceed by handing Saudi Arabia a support setting of the Chengdu J-20 as well as the primary delivery of the speculated Xi’an H-20. I reckon that it is not completed yet, but they could hand 3 of these puppies to Saudi Arabia so that the Saudi Airforce could strike against the Houthi Forces. (I did say could, not will). Consider that these two planes would be readily sought by other Arabian nations (including Egypt, Jordan and Iraq) this is largely speculative, but it allows China to take more and more slices from American defence industries. And as this happens Iran needs to hide, because these choices would reduce the Houthi forces to next to nothing and at that point Iranian actions would fall flat and at that point Israel has options and Hamas should have none left. 

As such the Saudi war hammer will carve slices of Yemen to rubble. In all this there are two sides that matter. The first is that the west ignored that stages that China prepared for and now we see that Saudi Arabia has selected for “a more modest military cooperation agreement” with America, as scheduled the door opens for China to get more of towards America assigned spending. As I personally would speculate is that Saudi Arabia is now in a good place to negotiate and as Blinken seemingly trusted on “We can do this, if we can have….” We see that America endangered its position for defence spending. I believe that I am correct, but there are signs that it is based on a opinion piece. Not on reported facts.

What people need to realise is that this all started on October 7th 2023 when Hamas struck the Nova music festival massacre, overall 1,139 people were killed and 250 Israeli civilians and soldiers were taken as hostages to the Gaza Strip. That started this mess but the media is extremely willing to avoid certain matters. And now we see a larger setting Saudi Arabia is (as I personally see it) ready to find a new defence partner and spend billions with that new partner. 

So when some will call this a mild rain, consider that thought because those billions would have paid for the loans which could now fall short of payment for the next few years.

As such appeasement becomes deadening. America made a massive booboo as I see it. Have a fun day.

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November 27, 2024 · 17:06

Saudi Fun craft

That is on the agenda. Most people are hauling what they can to see their name in COP29, but the others (or those who put their name down already) are trying to be seen as the anti-China voice in the middle east. Because that is what Trump wants, right?

That is the setting of the next wannabe, the next facilitator or the next service provider. Saudi Arabia, Aramco, the UAE and ADNOC’s next need, that is what their limited view states. I cannot agree. That was what the region needed, the next iteration however is as subtle as a maul to a shin.

You see, most are ‘reacting’ to ‘Better offer needed if the US wants to pull Saudi Arabia away from China’ (Amwaj media) or ‘Saudi Arabia seeks mining deals with Chinese, Indian and Canadian firms in industry push’ (AL-monitor). There are more headlines, but the cautious player notices that America (or USA) is in several instances no longer mentioned. That is the actual play. President  elect Trump has a problem. His library is not on the mind of those who need to have it on their minds and that is a plural issue. Microsoft might be ‘offering’ the world to the UAE in AI, but the critics who know a thing or two are skeptical. I cannot tell if there is a silence delay, or an actual disregard in play for the USA. You need to be in the know with China and a certain palace in Riyadh to know the actual setting. And in this Amwaj gives us “if Washington truly wants Riyadh to join the US camp, it should come up with a better offer—instead of a proposition with strings attached.” Funny that, I said something similar on March 11th 2020 in ‘Who is Miss Calculation?’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/03/11/who-is-miss-calculation/) the words are not the same, but the spirit was. As most would embrace Good business is where you find it, others went for Money talks, bullshit walks. So who was president then?

It does not matter, policies are always on a turntable, but the disc hits that direction 33 times a minute. Faster if you play a CD. No matter whose president when this matter resurfaces. China had a while to set his ducks in a row and he merely needs to watch the fallout whilst he takes shelter regarding the massive boink the Americas show when things turn sour.

America needs a positive hit and that implies being close friends with the Arabian allies UAE and Saudi Arabia. All whilst they know that they need to be friends with China as well. And that is a bitter pill to swallow for America. The tables turn even further as elemental deals (where America would have been the A-team for Arabia) we now see China, India and Canada taking slices of that pie as well. I send stern warnings in 2020 and now we see it happen. So consider that America had the biggest part of that pie until 2015, now we see that America (with $36,000,000,000,000 debt) ends up with a suspected mere 45% of that pie, 55% went into other directions. Add to that the deals Europe and Australia expects to make before Jan 1st 2025 and you see that Saudi Arabia is doing what it needs to do for its country. It might not look nice, but that is the reality of it all and I gave the people heads up for over 4 years. Now it all ‘looks like a crises’ that does not mean it is. It is merely a crises when you were unaware of it all and America was very aware. So seeks the sands with COP29 all whilst there are over 41000 flights each day and many are not needed. So how is that for “biologically formed organic matter”. Yes they will stop some of this all whilst a massive chunk of of these 41000 flight each day could be deleted. So where is COP29 now?

And it gets to be bad, or worse for America. The Tariff deal for Canada is seen as disastrous. But when it can deal with China and Saudi Arabia, what Canada loses on one side, it will gain more on the other side, America painted itself in a corner. And for the sweeter deal? It might be too late for that. China has gained about 15% of the pie that was meant for America, as such the bills will be pushed along forward and there is actual consideration that America would have to lease its land to others to make a shilling and it is not shillings that America needs. It needs a wheelbarrow of these coins. As I see it, America now has less than 4 turns until it can no longer make any moves. It wont be able to afford the entry fee to make a move. As such I personally believe that America has been playing the wrong game. They were playing chess whilst Chinese chess was needed. They never used the board optimal and now that they figured out the game, it is too late for that.

In my own view (optionally a wrong one), the friends of Trump are heading for the hills. They will not get away Scott free, but they will get away. The rest gets saddled with the biggest invoice in human history and they cannot foot the bill. And don’t think that this is not on you all. Your pensions are about to go the way of Lehman Brothers 2003. The loans that are still outgoing will be foreclosed by the banks foreclosing your banks and you end up having nothing to live upon. That too was blatantly obvious before the end of 2023. Now it matters to whom have the flexibility to make moves with whatever capital they have. Don’t rely on the stock markets. Have investments that are mobile, or optionally real estate. I feel certain that it will come to blows in 2025 when America shows that it has issues settling the bills they have. That is when panic goes global. And when you see this unfold those with a decent penny in Aramco and ADNOC will have a return on investment, the rest? Whatever of these rest players will be left alive in Q2 2025, because there is no reality that this will be true.

And when you ask how come? That would be fair and the answer wa staring you in the face. Country 1 gave payment to a debt of country 2 and Country 2 gave payment to a debt of country 1. So what is that called? And this had been going on for decades. I thought the barn was done away with when we learned of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic going south on the debit line. However, the worst was dealt with. This time around it might be worse. The USA would need to call themselves bankrupt and the impact of that is beyond my ability to see, but I am willing to place a bet that China knows exactly what to do. You see, when this comes to pass China and others can vie for the 6,278,000 billion barrels a day it imports. It might be cheaper then getting their own oil, but that is where it is headed. India and China will try to get the largest chunk of it. As such Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Colombia will need new customers and I reckon India and China will be chomping at the bits to get these slices of oil. It will impact global economy to a much larger extent. And that was merely the first part. Consider that Huawei is taking over another slice of technology and you have one country falling short on several fields, merely because they did not think things through. So wanna seen what happens when you owe a bank a massive amount of cash and you can only cover 60% of the monthly payments?

How long until this party is over?

Enjoy the day.

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November 22, 2024 · 20:41

The end is nigh

Yup, it is. And not in a normal way. There is no demon sprouting on the land. You see Lucifer Morningstar has greed driven politicians doing his dirty work and what is more satisfying than any person digging his own grave? So how did this setting deploy? Well as the DoJ decided that there agenda matters most they are about to force Google its Chrome browser. (At https://www.itnews.com.au/news/google-must-sell-chrome-us-doj-argues-613298) We see “Google must sell its Chrome browser, share data and search results with rivals and take other measures – including possibly selling Android – to end its monopoly on online search, prosecutors argued to a judge” Its always the stupid and greedy that redefines the borders of hell. Anyway, whatever his ‘personal’ reasons are the game is literally afoot. In this instance whist that is considered Europe and the Middle East will select the dollars for donuts option and in this we need to consider the second cog in this wheel. It is given to us by Politico (at https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-china-huawei-ban-2029-5g-networks-government-greens-lawmaker-4g-strand/) which they gave us in July. There we are given ‘Germany goes soft on China, dragging out Huawei ban until 2029’ and this ban will be delayed again and again. Lets not forget that American anti-Chinese actions led to this. And no matter how we feel about it. The Americans NEVER gave ample evidence for any of it. So as one start to ferment the sentiments of how stupid this American administration is, Huawei will add to this. You see Huawei now has HarmonyOS and it has a few other arrows in its quiver. The larger setting for the internet of things was ignored for too long. And as Germany delays, so will France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands and the Nordic regions. Like domino stones they will tumble each other. All whilst this administration will find another person to take a metal briefcase to the European leaders like a pop star and we saw that before. So the evidence better be real this time around. Still that will take time and in the meantime we are given by Huawei Central (at https://www.huaweicentral.com/huawei-matepad-pro-13-2-2025-will-reshape-office-experience-ceo/) We are “shown” ‘Huawei MatePad Pro 13.2 2025 will reshape office experience: CEO’ and this is the larger setting. For when Google loses market share, in that same instance Microsoft loses market share as well. The Huawei MatePad Pro 13.2 2025 is now only 4 days away. With HarmonyOS it will be able to connect nearly all other devices. As we are shown that the “Multi-Window enables users to open several apps in split-screen mode for multitasking. One can also swipe an app inward from the left/right edge to bring up the Multi-Window dock. It’s a useful tool for office work, meetings, and more.” That is precisely why politicians should stay away from technology decisions. Basically they are too stupid to see the forest through the trees and in this instance there will be a massive jolt to Google, Microsoft and I reckon that Apple will also see a dip in revenue. Or as some will say “It sucks to be you” to the Attorney General. 

So am I right or am I wrong?
That remains to be seen, but as I see it, the demand for the Google ‘simplification’ will open the doors of HarmonyOS to Europe and for a much stronger setting to the Middle East. And with the uncertainty of the Google stage. Huawei and their data centres. The setting of Google will make a lot of people nervous and that works for Huawei. We were given last year “The launch of the Huawei Cloud Riyadh Region was announced at the Huawei Cloud Summit Saudi Arabia 2023. The new cloud region, located in an STC/Center3 data centre in Riyadh, offers three availability zones. It is the company’s first region in the Middle East.” How long will it take for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to follow suit? And how happy do you think Microsoft will be to do their ‘AI’ work in a Huawei data centre? All this will come to pass (unless someone muzzles the AG). There is a setting to it all and one brick will stumble the next one and the next one. It is the result of the internet of things. And with the Huawei MatePad Pro there is more than just the connectivity. It will slow iPad sales and from there Microsoft will find themselves in more hot waters (some they did to themselves) and the UAE will demand that Microsoft will do its AI work wherever it needs to be and as such Microsoft will enable Huawei even more. All this because someone has anti-Google feelings. For 15 years Google found and created an innovative road. It is not up to the DoJ to reward stupidity to the competitors of Google. They forgot the basics and these settings will now work for China as well. 

And as we see that Politico gives us “Under the agreement, components manufactured by Huawei, China’s leading 5G equipment maker, are to be banned from sensitive core network infrastructure by the end of 2026, rather than by the end of 2025 as previously envisaged, as reported by POLITICO. When it comes to the radio access networks (RAN) such as antenna masts, Huawei components would have to be removed by the end of 2029 instead of the end of 2026. This is a satisfactory outcome for German operators, who were in the process of upgrading these networks anyway, thus limiting extra costs.” You see one thing, but I see that there is no real America by 2027, as such the ban becomes moot. Add to this the expansions that Saudi Arabia is making with the STC. The Saudi Telecom Company is already making waves in Egypt and now it seems Portugal as well all this enables Huawei more and more growth and as Google starts to falter the European politicians will try to divert whatever they can as to not be eaten by their ‘allies’. As the west falls to Huawei and the STC the more hardship America will face. It all started by attacking its own base and by attacking Google they basically drowned their own livestock and  from there the business opportunities they had. Funny for me, not so much for Microsoft who basically let it happen and now that the office suite is under attack (from next week) we will see all kinds of spin by one player on how hard it will be for the shifters. The overt setting was that (an oversimplified setting) the Department of Justice should have stayed out of matters. They hide behind ‘monopoly’ but that game states that all players are equal whilst that setting hasn’t been true for decades. The world had Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Google and Oracle. The others are spinning, making presumptuous presentations on whatever wasn’t real yet and now there will be a tap on the door. How will it end?

I honestly have no idea. The only thing I foresee is that with the breaking up of Google the end will be nigh for those relying on ‘scripted’ settings for the better things that it will bring. Because that just ain’t so. For things to become better true innovators are needed. And the bigger part of those are not in America. The 5 I mentioned has them, but when the For each of those China might have an alternative. Huawei could now replace Google (in part), Tencent with Huawei will be able to replace parts of Apple. As I see it only Oracle has a steady foundation and it all depends on the DoJ waking up what they are about to unleash and still if they do not Credibility towards Google will wane, that much the DoJ already achieved. I wonder if they realise what they are about to achieve. 

The world seems to become more and more Chinese oriented. Well, that is what this administration seemingly wanted.

Have fun with the fallout.

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