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I lost my marbles

Like Poodles, I seem to have misplaced my marbles. AKA I lost them completely. Now only 9 hours ago I shouted that I am sick of the AI bubble, but a few minutes ago I got called back into that fray. You see, I was woken up by an image.

This is the image and it gives us ‘Oracle’s $300bn OpenAI deal is now valued at minus $74bn’ there is no way this is happening. You see, I have clearly stated that the bubble is coming. But in this, Oracle has a set state of technologies it is contributing. As such, where is the bubble blowing up in the face of OpenAI and Microsoft? In this, the Financial Times (at https://www.ft.com/content/064bbca0-1cb2-45ab-85f4-25fdfc318d89) is giving us ‘Oracle is already underwater on its ‘astonishing’ $300bn OpenAI deal’. So where is the damager to the other two? We are given “OK, yes, it’s a gross simplification to just look at market cap. But equivalents to Oracle shares are little changed over the same period (Nasdaq Composite, Microsoft, Dow Jones US Software Index), so the $60bn loss figure is not entirely wrong. Oracle’s “astonishing quarter” really has cost it nearly as much as one General Motors, or two Kraft Heinz. Investor unease stems from Big Red betting a debt-financed data farm on OpenAI, as MainFT reported last week. We’ve nothing much to add to that report other than the below charts showing how much Oracle has, in effect, become OpenAI’s US public market proxy:” There might be some loss on Oracle (if that happens) and later on we were given (after a stack of graphics, see the story for that) “But Oracle is not the only laggard. Broadcom and Amazon are both down following OpenAI deal news, while Nvidia’s barely changed since its investment agreement in September. Without a share price lift, what’s the point? A combined trillion dollars of AI capex might look like commitment, but investment fashions are fickle.” And in this, I still have doubts on the reporting side of things. From my own feelings (not hard core numbers) that Oracle and Amazon are the best players to survive this as their technology is solid. When AI does come, they are likely the only two to set it right and the entire article goes out of its way to mention Microsoft. But in all this Microsoft has made significant investments in OpenAI and has rights to OpenAI’s Intellectual Property (IP). This comes down to Microsoft holding a stake in OpenAI’s for-profit arm, OpenAI Group PBC, valued at approximately $135 billion, which represents about 27% of the company. So how is Microsoft not mentioned? 

As such how come Oracle is underwater? Is it testing scuba gear? And if the article is indeed true, what is the value of OpenAI now? Because that will also drown the 27% of it (holding the name Microsoft) and that image is missing from that equation. If this is the bubble bursting, which might be true (a year before I predicted it) then it stands to rights that this is also impacting Amazon, Google, IBM, Microsoft and OpenAI. As such this article seems a little far fetched, a little immature and largely premature by now naming all the players in this game. I personally thought that Oracle would be one of the winners in all of this, or better stated a smallest loser in this multi trillion bubble.

So what gives?
And in this I might be incorrect and largely missing the point, but a write-off to the amount of nearly half a trillion dollars has more underwriters and mentioning merely Oracle is a little far fetched, no matter how fashionable they all seem to be and for that matter as Microsoft has been ‘advocating’ their copilot program, how deep are they in? Because the Oracle write-off will be squarely in the face of that Nadella dude. As he seemingly already missed the builder.ai setting, this might be the one ending his career and whatever comes next might want to commit suicide instead of accepting whatever promotion is coming his way. (I know it is a dark setting) but the image is a little disconcerting at present. And the images that the Financial Times give us, like the Hyperscaler capex, show Microsoft to be 3 times in deeper water than Oracle is, so why aren’t they mentioned in the text? And in those same images Amazon are in way over their heads and that is merely the beginning of a bubble going sideways on everyone. As such, is this a storm in a cup of water? If that is so, why is Oracle underwater? And there is ample reason to see me as a non-economist, I never was on wanted to be one. But the media as gives raises questions. And I agree, Oracle is on a long way to break even, but if they do not, neither are Amazon, Microsoft and OpenAi and that part is seemingly missing too. If anything, Larry Ellison could pay the shortcomings with his petty cash (he allegedly has 250,000 million) that is how own die and the others won’t even come near that amount. 

So whilst we wait for someone to make sense of this all, we need to walk carefully and not panic, because these settings tend to be the stage where the panicky people sell what they can for dimes to the dollar and that is not how I want to see players like Microsoft jump that shark. This is not any kind of anti-Microsoft deal, it is them calling the others not innovative whilst there isn’t a innovative bone in that cadaver. So whilst we want to call the cards. The only thing I do is calling the cards of the Financial Times and likewise reporting media calling out the missing settings of loss towards Microsoft and OpenAI. It is the best I can do, I know an economic major who could easily do that, but he is busy running Canada at the moment.

Have a great day and I apologize for causing an optional panic, which was not my intention.

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Labels

That is the setting and I introduce the readers to this setting yesterday, but there was more and there always is. Labels is how we tend to communicate, there is the label of ‘Orange baboon’ there is the label of ‘village idiot’ and there are many more labels. They tend to make life ‘easy’ for us. They are also the hidden trap we introduce to ourselves. In the ‘old’ days we even signify Business Intelligence by this, because it was easy for the people running these things. 

And example can be seen in

And we would see the accommodating table with on one side completely agree, agree, neutral, disagree and completely disagree, if that was the 5 point labeling setting we embraced and as such we saw a ‘decently’ complete picture and we all agreed that this was that is had to be.

But the not so hidden snag is that in the first these labels are ordinal (at best) and the setting of Likert scales (their official name) are not set in a scientific way, there is no equally adjusted difference between the number 1,2,3,4,5. That is just the way it is. And in the old days this was OK (as the feeling went). But today in what she call the AI setting and I call it NIP at best, the setting is too dangerous. Now, set this by ‘todays’ standards.

The simple question “Is America bankrupt?” Gets all kinds of answers and some will quite correctly give us “In contrast, the financial health of the United States is relatively healthy within the context of the total value of U.S. assets. A much different picture appears once one looks at the underlying asset base of the private and public economy.” I tend to disagree, but that is me without me economic degrees. But in the AI world it is a simple setting of numbers and America needs Greenland and Canada to continue the retention that “the United States is relatively healthy within the context of the total value of U.S. assets”, yes that would be the setting but without those two places America is likely around bankrupt and the AI bubble will push them over the edge. At least that is how I see it and yesterday I gave one case (or the dozen or so cases that will follow in 2026) in that stage this startup is basically agreeing to a larger then 2 billion settlement. So in what universe does a startup have this money? That is the constriction of AI, and in that setting of unverified and unscaled data the presence gets to be worse. And I remember a answer given to me at a presentation, the answer was “It is what it is” and I kinda accepted it, but an AI will go bonkers and wrong in several ways when that is handed to it. And that is where the setting of AI and NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) becomes clear. NIP is merely a 90’s chess game that has been taught (trained) every chess game possible and it takes from that setting, but the creative intellect does an illogical move and the chess game loses whatever coherency it has, that move was never programmed and that is where you see the difference between AI and NIP. The AI will creatively adjust its setting, the NIP cannot and that is what will set the stage for all these class actions. 

The second setting is ‘human’ error. You see, I placed the Likert scale intentionally, because in between the multitude of 1-5 scales there is one likely variable that was set to 5-1 and the programmers overlooked them and now when you see these AI training grounds at least one variable is set in the wrong direction, tainting the others and massing with the order of the adjusted personal scales. And that is before we get to the result of CLUSTER and QUICKCLUSTER results where a few more issues are introduced to the algorithm of the entire setting and that is where the verification of data becomes imperative and at present.

So here is a sort of random image, but the question it needs to raise is what makes these different sources in any way qualified to be a source? In this case if the data is skewed in Ask Reddit, 93% of the data is basically useless and that is missed on a few levels. There are quality high data sources, but these are few and far in-between, in the mean time these sources get to warp any other data we have. And if you are merely looking at legacy data, there is still the Likert scale data you in your own company had and that data is debatable at best. 

Labels are dangerous and they are inherently based on the designer of that data source (possible even long dead) and it tends to be done in his of her early stages of employment, making the setting even more debatable as it was ‘influenced’ by greedy CEO’s and CFO’s and they had their bonus in mind. A setting mostly ignored by all involved. 

As such are you surprised that I see the AI bubble to what it is? A dangerous reality coming our way in sudden likely unforeseen ways and it is the ‘unforeseen way’ that is the danger, because when these disgruntled employees talk to those who want to win a class action, all kinds of data will come to the surface and that is how these class actions are won. 

It was a simple setting I saw coming a mile away and whilst you wandered by I added the Dr. Strange part, you merely thought you had the labels thought through but the setting was a lot more dangerous and it is heading straight to your AI dataset. All wrongly thought through, because training data needs to have something verifiable as ‘absolutely true’ and that is the true setting and to illustrate this we can merely make a stop at Elon Musk inc. Its ‘AI’ grok having the almost prefect setting. We are given from one source “The bot has generated various controversial responses, including conspiracy theories, antisemitism, and praise of Adolf Hitler, as well as referring to Musk’s views when asked about controversial topics or difficult decisions.” Which is almost a dangerous setting towards people fueling Grok in a multitude of ways and ‘Hundreds of thousands of Grok chats exposed in Google results’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrkmk00jy0o) where we see “The appearance of Grok chats in search engine results was first reported by tech industry publication Forbes, which counted more than 370,000 user conversations on Google. Among chat transcripts seen by the BBC were examples of Musk’s chatbot being asked to create a secure password, provide meal plans for weight loss and answer detailed questions about medical conditions.” Is there anybody willing to do the honors of classifying that data (I absolutely refuse to do so) and I already gave you the headwind in the above story. In the fist how many of these 370,000 users are medical professionals? I think you know where this is going. And I think Grok is pretty neat as a result, but it is not academically useful. At best it is a new form of Wikipedia, at worst it is a round data system (trashcan) and even though it sounds nice, it is as nice as labels can be and that is exactly why these class cases will be decided out of court and as I personally see it when these hit Microsoft and OpenAI will shell over trillions to settle out of court, because the court damage will be infinitely worse. And that is why I see 2026 as the year the graded driven get to start filling to fill their pockets, because the mindful hurt that is brought to court is as academic as a Likert scale, not a scientific setting among them and the pre-AI setting of Mental harm as ““Mental damage” in court refers to psychological injury, such as emotional trauma or psychiatric conditions, that can be the basis for legal claims, either as a plaintiff seeking compensation or as a criminal defendant. In civil cases, plaintiffs may seek damages for mental harm like PTSD, depression, or anxiety if they can prove it was caused by another party’s negligent or wrongful actions, provided it results in a recognizable psychiatric illness.” So as you see it, is this enough or do you want more? Oh, screw that, I need coffee now and I have a busy day ahead, so this is all you get for now.

Have a great day, I am trying to enjoy Thursday, Vancouver is a lot behind me on this effort. So there is a time scale we all have to adhere to (hidden nudge) as such enjoy the day.

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Ignoring the centre of the pie

That is the setting that I saw when I took notice of ‘Will quantum be bigger than AI?’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c04gvx7egw5o) now there is no real blame to show here. There is no blame on Zoe Kleinman (she is an editor). As I personally see it, we have no AI. What we have is DML and LLM (and combinations of the two), they are great and great tools and they can get a whole lot done, but it is not AI. Why do I feel this way? The only real version of AI was the one Alan Turing introduced us to and we are not there yet. Three components are missing. The first is Quantum Processing. We have that, but it is still in its infancy. The few true Quantum systems there are are in the hands of Google, IBM and I reckon Microsoft. I have no idea who leads this field but these are the players. Still they need a few things. In the first setting Shallow Circuits needs to be evolved. As far as I know (which is not much) is that it is still evolving. So what is a shallow circuit. Well, you have a number of steps to degrade the process. The larger the process, the larger the steps. Shallow circuits makes this easier. To put it in layman’s terms. The process doesn’t grow, it is simplified. 

To put this in perspective, lets take another look. In the 90’s we had Btree+ trees. In that setting, lets say we have a register with a million entries. In Btree it goes to the 50% marker, was the record we needed further or less than that. Then it takes half go that and does the same query. So as one system (like DBase3+ goes from start to finish), Btree goes 0 to 500,000 to 750,000 to 625,000. As such in 4 steps it passed through 624999 records. This is the speediest setting and it is not foolproof, that record setting is a monster to maintain, but it had benefits. Shallow Circuits has roughly the same benefits (if you want to read up to this, there is something at https://qutech.nl/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/m1-koenig.pdf) it was a collaboration of Robert König with Sergey Bravyi and David Gosset in 2018. And the gist of it is given through “Many locality constraints on 2D HLF-solving circuits” where “A classical circuit which solves the 2D HLF must satisfy all such cycle relations” and the stage becomes “We show that constant-depth locality is incompatible with these constraints” and now you get the first setting that these AI’s we see out there aren’t real AI’s and that will be the start of several class actions in 2026 (as I personally see it) and as far as I can tell, large law firms are suiting up for this as these are potentially trillion dollar money makers (see this as 5 times $200B) as such law firms are on board, for defense and for prosecution, you see, there is another step missing, two steps actually. The first is that this requires a new operating system, one that enables the use of the Epsilon Particle. You see, it will be the end of Binary computation and the beginning of Trinary computations which are essential to True AI (I am adopting this phrase to stop confusion) You see, the world is no really Yes/No (or True/False), that is not how True AI or nature works. We merely adopted this setting decades ago, because that was what there was and IBM got us there. You see, there is one step missing and it is seen in the setting NULL,TRUE,FALSE,BOTH. NULL is that there are no interactions, the action is FALSE, TRUE or BOTH, that is a valid setting and the people who claim bravely (might be stupidly) that they can do this are the first to fall into these losing class actions. The quantum chip can deal with the premise, but the OS it deals with needs to have a trinary setting to deal with the BOTH option and that is where the horse is currently absent. As I see it, that stage is likely a decade away (but I could be wrong and I have no idea where IBM is in that setting as the paper is almost a decade old. 

But that is the setting I see, so when we go back to the BBC with “AI’s value is forecast in the trillions. But they both live under the shadow of hype and the bursting of bubbles. “I used to believe that quantum computing was the most-hyped technology until the AI craze emerged,” jokes Mr Hopkins.” Fair view, but as I see it the AI bible is a real bubble with all the dangers it holds as AI isn’t real (at present), Quantum is a real deal and only a few can afford it (hence IBM, Google, Microsoft) and the people who can afford such a system (apart from these companies) are Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Sergei Brin and Larry Ellison (as far as I know) because a real quantum computer takes up a truckload of energy and the processor (and storage are massively expensive, how expensive? Well I don’t think Aramco could afford it, now without dropping a few projects along the way. So you need to be THAT rich to say the least. To give another frame of reference “Google unveiled a new quantum chip called Willow, which it claimed could take five minutes to solve a problem that would currently take the world’s fastest super computers 10 septillion years – or 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years – to complete.” And that is the setting for True AI, but in this the programming isn’t even close to ready, because this is all problem by problem all whilst a True AI (like V.I.K.I. in I Robot) can juggle all these problems in an instant. As I personally see it, that setting is decades away and that is if the previous steps are dealt with. Even as I oppose the thought “Analysts warned some key quantum stocks could fall by up to 62%” as there is nothing wrong with Quantum computing, as I see its it is the expectations of the shareholders who are likely wrong. Quantum is solid, but it is a niche without a paddock. Still, whomever holds the Quantum reigns will be the first one to hold a true AI and that is worth the worries and the profits that follow. 

So as I see this article as an eye opener, I don’t really see eye to eye on this side. The writer did nothing wrong. So whilst we might see that Elon Musk was right stating “This week Elon Musk suggested on X that quantum computing would run best on the “permanently shadowed craters of the moon”.” That might work with super magnet drives, quantum locking and a few other settings on the edge of the dark side of the moon, I see some ‘play’ on this, but I have no idea how far this is set and what the data storage systems are (at present) and that is the larger equation here. Because as I see it, trinary data can not be stored on binary data carriers, no matter who cool it is with liquid nitrogen. And that is at the centre of the pie. How to store it all because like the energy constraints, the processing constraints, the tech firms did not really elaborate on this, did they? So how far that is is anyones guess, but I personally would consider (at present, and uneducated) that IBM to be the ruling king of the storage systems. But that might be wrong.

So have a great day and consider where your money is, because when these class actions hit, someone wins and it is most likely the lawyer that collects the fees, the rest will lose just like any other player in that town. So how do you like your coffee at present and do you want a normal cup or a quantum thermal?

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At the benefit of Riyadh

That is what I saw a few days ago, but as with all matters, the people who see the advantage do not always see what they have. You see, almost 3 years ago I wrote ‘Girdle your loins’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/11/30/girdle-your-loins/) where I have both Kingdom Holdings, Saudi Arabia and Amazon the stage where they could set the stage of an additional 6 billion a year with optionally enlarging this to about 15 billion a year (a cautious conservative estimate) and that was merely the beginning. I tried to hand it to Google, but the person I had to seal to was not in the office (it was in the Covid lockdown stage) and 2 days later they dumped the Google Stadia. So, I was depending on Amazon (and Andy Jessy), or the Kingdom Holding, but there I had to deal with   Prince Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud. And he has never heard of me, so I was up going nowhere. And I get it, a billionaire gets thousands of ‘pleads’ in a daily basis and I don’t amount to much. I get that. But that doesn’t take away the anguish of having the idea of a lifetime (well 50 million dollars plus change) and as it holds billions of revenue, I was in a decent position, but over the last three years my changes has dwindled, even Tencent was leaving the idea in the ground and for the life of me I cannot understand why these so called ‘self made billionaires’ leave this much revenue one the floor. I get the idea that if it isn’t AI, it is worthless, but the sentiment behind that is flawed as AI doesn’t exist and the issues I raised with energy and validation and verification of data are showing a much larger setting now (see yesterday’s blog). 

But as Saudi Arabia bought Electronic Arts the issue changes. You see the second pillar on the story ‘Girdle your loins’ has a new lease on life as Electronic Arts brought some of the highest rated games during 1985-1999 and that is the focal point of a lot of games and as Saudi Arabia owns the IP now, the games that are published as Bullfrog will be worth a massive amount. 

We had Magic Carpet (1+2), Dungeon Keeper (1+2), Populous (1+2) and there is another upside. These games can be released in the original setting (with upgraded sound and graphics) and there is the setting that these games can be ‘islamiphied’ giving a game like Populous the setting to add the graphics of an Arabic themed land, with optional setting that added libraries can be unlocked in the game as you conquer the lands it adds a cauldron with a graphic theme and that gives the player a new stride on the game. And that is one house who had additional titles, as such the setting for Riyadh increases to a larger setting and one that brings in the money. Wouldn’t it be nice if (as I personally see it) that the investment of $55 billion will earn itself back in under a decade by additional means? That is what Google, Amazon and others left on the floor. And only 20 hours ago the Guardian gave us ‘Boom or bubble? Inside the $3tn AI datacentre spending spree’ with the byline “Investment in these vast warehouses is huge but some worry the debt-fuelled exuberance will backfire” with the setting of “Google’s owner Alphabet has reported revenues of $100bn in a single quarter for the first time, helped by growing demand for its AI infrastructure, while Apple and Amazon have also just reported strong results.” And still the media avoids certain matters as we are given “Goldman Sachs expects it to double by the end of 2030. This carries a further infrastructure cost of its own, according to Goldman, with $720bn of grid spending needed to meet that energy demand.” So double the effort by 2030? Is that a critical holding, because as I personally see it, the American economy doesn’t have that long and the energy setting is critical as is validating and verifying the Deeper Machine Learning data sets, an issue that is ‘circumvented’ by nearly all. As such I personally feel that my solution as a way around shortage of funds was seemingly (a personal view) a good idea to have in the back pocket and I was eager to hand it to Google (just to keep it out of the hands of Microsoft) but alas, I was not that fortunate. And make no mistake. I wanted to cash in on my ideas as anyone would, so there is no altruistic setting here. I am not better than all (just better than most) and now it seems that Saudi Arabia and through it I reckon Kingdom Holdings have the inside track on billions left on the floor. I wonder if they will make a deal with Tencent to make it work. 

Have a great day. I will dream of icy cold water (it is 28 degrees celsius now) and the taste of refreshing icy cold water appeals to me at present.

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What do bubbles do?

There was a game in the late 80’s, I played it on the CBM64. It was called bubble bobble. There was a cute little dragon (the player) and it was the game to pop as many bubbles as you can. So, fast forward to today. There were a few news messages. The first one is ‘OpenAI’s $1 Trillion IPO’ (at https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/10/30/openais-1-trillion-ipo/) which I actually saw last of the three. We see ridiculous amounts of money pass by. We are given ‘OpenAI valuation hits $762b after new deal with Microsoft’ with “The deal refashions the $US500 billion ($758 billion) company as a public benefit corporation that is controlled by a nonprofit with a stake in OpenAI’s financial success.” We see all kinds of ‘news’ articles giving these players more and more money. Its like watching a bad hand of Texas Hold’em where everyone is in it with all they have. As the information goes, it is part of the sacking of 14,000 employees by Amazon. And they will not see the dangers they are putting the population in. This is not merely speculation, or presumption. It is the deadly serious danger of bobbles bursting and we are unwittingly the dragon popping them. 

So the article gives us “If anyone needs proof that the AI-driven stock market is frothy, it is this $1 trillion figure. In the first half of the year, OpenAI lost $13.5 billion, on revenue of $4.3 billion. It is on track to lose $27 billion for the year. One estimate shows OpenAI will burn $115 billion by 2029. It may not make money until that year.” So as I see it, that is a valuation that is 4 years into the future with a market as liquid as it is? No one is looking at what Huawei is doing or if it can bolster their innovative streak, because when that happens we will get an immediate write-off no less then $6,000,000,000,000 and it will impact Microsoft (who now owns 27% of OpenAI) and OpenAI will bank on the western world to ‘bail’ them out, not realising that the actions of President Trump made that impossible and both the EU and Commonwealth are ready and willing to listen to Huawei and China. That is the dreaded undertow in this water. 

All whilst the BBC reports “Under the terms, Microsoft can now pursue artificial general intelligence – sometimes defined as AI that surpasses human intelligence – on its own or with other parties, the companies said. OpenAI also said it was convening an expert panel that will verify any declaration by the company that it has achieved artificial general intelligence. The company did not share who would serve on the panel when approached by the BBC.” And there are two issues already hiding under the shallows. The first is data value, you see data that cannot be verified or validated is useless and has no value and these AI chasers have been so involved into the settings of the so called hyped technology that everyone forgets that it requires data. I think that this is a big ‘Oopsy’ part in that equation. And the setting that we are given is that it is pushed into the background all whilst it needs to have a front and centre setting. You see, when the first few class cases are thrown into the brink, Lawyers will demand the algorithm and data settings and that will scuttle these bubbles like ships in the ocean and the turmoil of those waters will burst the bubbles and drown whomever is caught in that wake. And be certain that you realise that the lawyers on a global setting are at this moment gearing up for that first case, because it will give them billions in class actions and leave it to greed to cut this issue down to size. Microsoft and OpenAI will banter, cry and give them scapegoats for lunch, but they will be out and front and they  will be cut to size. As will Google and optionally Amazon and IBM too. I already found a few issues in Googles setting (actors staged into a movie before they were born is my favourite one) and that is merely the tip of the iceberg, it will be bigger than the one sinking the Titanic and it is heading straight for the Good Ship Lollipop(AI) the spectacle will be quite a site and all the media will hurry to get their pound of beef and Microsoft will be massively exposed at the point (due to previous actions). 

A setting that is going to hit everyone and the second setting is blatantly ignored by the media. You see, these data centers, How are they powered? As I see it, the Stargate program will require (my inaccurate multiple Gigabytes Watt setting) a massive amount of power. The people in West Virginia are already complaining on what there is and a multiple factor will be added all over the USA, the UAE and a few other places will see them coming and these power settings are blatantly short. The UAE is likely close to par and that sets the dangers of shortcomings. And what happens to any data center that doesn’t get enough power? Yup, you guessed it, it will go down in a hurry. So how is that fictive setting of AI dealing with this?

Then we get a new instance (at https://cyberpress.org/new-agent-aware-cloaking-technique-exploits-openai-chatgpt-atlas-browser-to-serve-fake-content/) we are given ‘New Agent-Aware Cloaking Technique Exploits OpenAI ChatGPT Atlas Browser to Serve Fake Content’ as I personally see it, I never considered that part, but in this day and age. The need to serve fake content is as important as anything and it serves the millions of trolls and the influencers in many ways and it degrades the data that is shown at the DML and LLM’s (aka NIP) in a hurry reducing dat credibility and other settings pretty much off the bat. 

So what is being done about that? As we are given “The vulnerability, termed “agent-aware cloaking,” allows attackers to serve different webpage versions to AI crawlers like OpenAI’s Atlas, ChatGPT, and Perplexity while displaying legitimate content to regular users. This technique represents a significant evolution of traditional cloaking attacks, weaponizing the trust that AI systems place in web-retrieved data.” So where does the internet go after that? So far I have been able to get the goods with the Google Browser and it does a fine job, but even that setting comes under scrutiny until they set a parameter in their browser to only look at Google data, they are in danger of floating rubbish at any given corner.

A setting that is now out in the open and as we are ‘supposed’ to trust Microsoft and OpenAI, until 2029, we are handed an empty eggshell and I am in doubt of it all as too many players have ‘dissed’ Huawei and they are out there ready to show the world how it could be done. If they succeed that 1 trillion IPO is left in the dirt and we get another two years of Microsoft spin on how they can counter that, I put that in the same collection box where I put that when Microsoft allegedly had its own more powerful item that could counter Unreal Engine 5. That collection box is in the Kitchen and it is referred to as the Trashcan.

Yes, this bubble is going ‘bang’ without any noise because the vested interested partners need to get their money out before it is too late. And the rest? As I personally see it, the rest is screwed. Have a great day as the weekend started for me and it will star in 8 hours in Vancouver (but they can start happy hour inn about one hour), so they can start the weekend early. Have a great one and watch out for the bubbles out there.

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The bubble to end all bubbles

That is what I saw mere minutes ago. It was yesterday’s piece at the Financial Review. An opinion piece by Gita Gopinath. Now normally I tend to ignore opinion pieces, but due to the fact that over time Financial Review has shown a good back on several matters and I picked up on the title ‘The crash that could torch $US35trn of wealth’ (at https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/the-crash-that-could-torch-us35trn-of-wealth-20251016-p5n31w) gives pause for alarm. As America has its tourism issues, its economy issue and its technology issues a $35,000 billion write-off would be nothing less than a disaster in the making. I wrote about this a few times, but even I shudder to think of how large this bubble has become. The 2008 crash was half of that and the documentary Inside Job does a great way to explain this. Take this movie together with the movie Margin Call and you get a picture of what was done to the people of the world.

This is more than 100% worse and it started with the delusional setting of salespeople taking the easy road and giving the rest of the world how amazing AI was going to be. The quote “I calculate that a market correction of the same magnitude as the dotcom crash could wipe out over $US20 trillion ($30 trillion) in wealth for American households, equivalent to roughly 70 per cent of American GDP in 2024. This is several times larger than the losses incurred during the crash of the early 2000s. The implications for consumption would be grave. Consumption growth is already weaker than it was preceding the dotcom crash. A shock of this magnitude could cut it by 3.5 percentage points, translating into a 2-percentage-point hit to overall GDP growth, even before accounting for declines in investment” should stop you in your tracks. With the additional “Foreign investors could face wealth losses exceeding $US15 trillion, or about 20 per cent of the rest of the world’s GDP. For comparison, the dotcom crash resulted in foreign losses of around $US2 trillion, roughly $US4 trillion in today’s money and less than 10 per cent of rest-of-world GDP at the time. This stark increase in spillovers underscores how vulnerable global demand is to shocks originating in America” was not unknown to me, but I did not figure on the damage exceeding 10 trillion, here I see I was off by 50% (which comes due to a lack of an economic degree on my side), but data I know, in and out. I saw some of this and I tried to warn people and especially the Emirati people (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/20/the-start-of-something-bad/) in ‘The start of something bad’ only two days ago. And the reason why it would be worse is seen in the next setting of the Financial Review. We are given “Historically, the rest of the world has found some cushion in the dollar’s tendency to rise during crises. This “flight to safety” has helped mitigate the impact of lost dollar-denominated wealth on foreign consumption. The greenback’s strength has long provided global insurance, often appreciating even when the crisis originates in America, as investors seek refuge in dollar assets. There are, though, reasons to believe that this dynamic may not hold in the next crisis. Despite well-founded expectations that American tariffs and expansionary fiscal policy would bolster the dollar, it has instead fallen against most major currencies.” I kinda saw that two days ago, but not to this degree (the Financial Review writes it better) When that bubble burst it will not allow for shelter and the people involved will be hit massively. As I see it Nvidia will survive by will see its value decreased by 90%. Oracle will get hit less but it will still take a beating. Microsoft will be up for sale in the bargain basement and after builder.ai, the bubble will stick to them like gum in hair and they will not be able to shake the event. Others (Google, IBM, Amazon) will be hit, but they will get through this. As I see it, the only high standard that is maintained will be Adobe. Their “AI” options are soundly set in Deeper Machine Learning. As I see it, they will tend to be the shelter of choice if at all possible. 

The only part I disagree with is “Although this does not mark the end of the dollar’s dominance, it does reflect growing unease among foreign investors about the currency’s trajectory. Increasingly, they are hedging against dollar risk – a sign of waning confidence.” As I see it, the dollar comes to an end with this bubble. I do not know what people will rush to, but the dollar is no longer the place to be. As I see it there will be a flock going towards the Yuan, the Dirham and the Bitcoin, but personally I have no idea if the Bitcoin survives. You see, a $35,000 write-off will come from some currency and those hiding in Bitcoin will lose a lot, no telling how much, but it will be close to astronomical. The Financial Review gives us “Perceptions of the strength and independence of American institutions, particularly the Federal Reserve, play a crucial role in maintaining investor confidence.” That independence is close to obsolete. This administration took care of that with all the tariffs, all the tourist settings and the economy is also shaky. It might not be but someone took the trouble of not reporting the ‘goodness’ of their setting. The labour statistics are nowhere to be found and that is shaking investor confidence. All that whilst Paramount is shaking thousands of people of their employment tree, this year alone Microsoft shed 15,000 jobs, IBM is said to have fired 21,000 jobs, making Google’s 100 job losses trivial in comparison. In this setting and with the missing labor statistics the investor confidence would be in the basement and even if the Federal reserve doused that paper in the scent of Luis Vuitton it would not matter much. At present Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the best places for these investors and America knows this. They have oil to fall back on and as I see it, no matter how the AI bubble bursts, they can retrench this into service roles and data acquisition roles. That is what Europe fears, American held data used to safely drip the economy to health using IP values from everywhere. And this is not the first time I wrote about this in ‘That one flaky promise’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/01/29/that-one-flaky-promise/) where I saw the dangers of America ‘annexing’ whatever it had and that was BEFORE AI and the bubble it created. I swear that danger almost 4 years ago. That setting will implode the rest of what America thought they would have. As I see it, a strong setting of IP and storage of it could help both Saudi Arabia and the UAE (a likely preferred choice) to evade to (those who can afford it) because when this bubble goes it will wipe out whatever most of us hold for dear and those who had their patents in the US. This is mere (intense) speculation, but do you think that this American administration will not do this? It had no trouble with tariffs and the setting of THEIR ‘big beautiful America’ at the expense of everything. They even tried to make Canada and Greenland part of America. I don’t think so and as I see it, when that bubble goes America is pretty much done for. All because Americans believe that Cash is King. So their salespeople live by the dollar and will waste it at a moments notice for their personal needs. Should you doubt that please watch Inside Job and see what they did there. I reckon that Iceland is now getting back on its feet al will enjoy the view on the impact crater that Wall Street leaves behind. 

I need to end this with a word of caution. This was base on an opinion piece, so as that is wrong, so is my view. But I based it on the data I had available and the prediction that I saw in 2022, so there was no AI bubble at that time. So is my view more accurate now? That cannot be said and it is based on what desperate people do and as I see it America is about to become really desperate. So enjoy your coffee today, which I will do also and I will assist a young woman named Aloy help her defeat some machines. They were not Microsoft products, so they should work. Now lets make them a lot less functional and that Deathbringer looks like a right monster.

Have a great day and try not to get too depressed by the not so good news I am partially bringing.

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Under Conceptual Construction

I just got hit with an idea (as ideas go). You see, I am from the world of Business Intelligence and Market Research and and idea just hit me. The setting is that data tends to be ‘humanized’, but what if it wasn’t? That is the central setting because the European GDPR has laws in place and I just thought of a way ‘around’ it. So take a setting where any MR firm requires data, but they cannot get that data because of the GDPR ‘complications’, so what is the actual issue? That doesn’t matter because Amazon, Google, IBM, Oracle and Snowflake have a way around that (Well a few more, but they do not matter). So take the next image

We have three top line population and it could be set to anyone (in that area) and as we set that population they are created a nearly unique number and never repetitive and that population gets exported, the numbers are. The MR people on the right get that number they populate the questionnaire(s) and it is send pack to the people on the left. Then that group sends out the questionnaires, the data is collected and send back to the group on the right. I reckon that this would be a nice challenge for Amazon and Snowflake I reckon. This might become an entire business unit and with privacy laws as they are placed in Europe, there might be a larger interest to seek such services. No hidden settings and all at the customers need and the consumers willingness to comply. I reckon that this might work, because as I see it, these Market Research people will see a dwindling of panel populations rather quickly in the next few years and then? Well, it would be up to them to think of a new setting, in the meantime I came up with this idea. And feel free to shoot it down straight off the bat and that is fine. As I said, it was just an idea grabbing me and as I was contemplating other venues. For that matter, how many interested parties would that bring in the Middle East and the Far East? 

Good business is all where you find it and I think I found a population and an optionally interested partner. The question now becomes can these so called ‘Agentic AI Pushers’ see the setting that is offered to them and can it pass the General Data Protection Regulation requirements? If so, we are in business. Just another idea from yours truly. Time to create another gaming IP I reckon, time to flex that grey matter under my skullcap.

Have a great day (again).

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The Magoo’s of media

That is the setting and as I saw an article pass by, I also saw the setting on how it affects my idea. You see, the conversation starts with ‘What Saudi Arabia’s role in the Electronic Arts buyout tells us about image, power and ‘game-washing’’ (at https://theconversation.com/what-saudi-arabias-role-in-the-electronic-arts-buyout-tells-us-about-image-power-and-game-washing-266359), you see, as I see it the ‘critics’ are always looking at tomorrows and at yesterdays news and as such they give us “The global video game industry is worth more than the film and music industries combined. But why would these buyers specifically want to buy EA, an entity that has won The Worst Company in America award twice?” And as I see it, they deserved that ‘title’ but there is an offset to all that. In my setting I saw that the world had enjoyed the Atari 800, Commodore 64, Atari ST and Commodore Amiga and in that timeframe 1985-1999 over 10,000 games were produced and when you take to top 10% you end up with 1000 games. I wrote about that a few years ago and now consider how many of that top 10% is Electronic Arts? A whole heap and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia owns it all now. There is a reason that they paid $55,000,000,000 and they get the winning numbers. Now consider how many of them can be transferred with upgraded graphics and sounds to a new streaming system like Tencent (Amazon seemingly didn’t want to play) and they are about to set that system in over 50 million houses (in past one) and that is one of the three pillars dealt with. The others have no IP protection and can be altered to a minimum setting to be valid IP. That is what the conversation is seemingly not considering. And they are painting it with “Video game publisher Electronic Arts (EA), one of the biggest video game companies in the world behind games such as The Sims and Battlefield, has been sold to a consortium of buyers for US$55 billion (about A$83 billion). It is potentially the largest-ever buyout funded by private equity firms. Not AI, nor mining or banking, but video games.” And that is the ballpark, it isn’t about AI where everyone is acing to proclaim that they have the winning combination (I reckon only to disappoint their ‘customers’) but the three pronged  solution that is out to give the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia the winning setting is about to align the Islamic world in a new world never seen before and everyone is looking around for what should have been on their visors. And I warned them even before I wrote ‘The second confirmation’ which I did on November 5th 2023 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/11/05/the-second-confirmation/) I said so at least a dozen times that Google and Amazon were that much asleep leaving billions on the floor (no one cares about Microsoft) and now the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is getting that setting done. Alas, I might not get anything (I tried to sell the idea to the Kingdom Holdings), but my small giggle is to show Amazon and Google how they deserted billions in revenue, so any ‘sales person’ who tells me that I am seeing it wrong, I get to show them, how they openly left billions on the floor and someone will pick it up at some point and it seems that this moment is now. 

So whilst we are given “The consortium will purchase all of the publicly traded company’s shares, making it private. But while the consortium and EA’s shareholders will likely be celebrating – each share was valued at US$210, representing a 25% premium – it’s not all good news.

PIF acquiring EA raises concerns about possible “game-washing”, and less than ideal future business practices.” By The Conversation we see a different part. It isn’t game-washing. It is a proper developed gaming option that the world left behind because it isn’t AI. So when AI gets the umpteenth class action on how AI wasn’t and as those engineers were seemingly held to account, Saudi Arabia has another setting of making up to 15-20 billion a years and that is what others left on the floor (it is only about 6 billion in phase one). So whilst those people come with complain and cry about the setting of micro transactions. The setting of “Micro transactions are small amounts of money paid to access, or potentially access, in-game items or currency. Over time, they can add up to a lot of money, and have even been linked to the creation of problem gambling behaviors. Unsurprisingly, they are not popular among players.” They could have just ben cast aside and added as freeware. It is all revenue of the kingdom and greed is frowned upon in Islamic nations. As such they can be cast aside and just for reference. There were hundreds of thousands of fans looking forward to a revamped Dungeon Keeper and cast aside when micro transactions were introduced. Now this setting (without micro transactions) could be released gaining that solutions hundred of thousands of fans. And that is merely one example of many. 

So whilst the Conversation and others are on the ‘laundry’ list, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is simply setting a new platform for over 800,000,000 customers and set a new setting towards the Islamic world, optionally slicing the options for Facebook and others (like Google) to gain advertisement revenue, because when you get access to 20% of the planetary population, you can hand them what they want to do, not what your advertisers want you to do. You see, in Saudi Arabia “The CITC in conjunction with the General Authority for Media Regulation (GAMR), requires advertisers to submit campaigns and media to this regulatory body for approval before broadcasting, digital or offline display. In order to avoid rejected campaigns, marketers must be familiar with the key Islamic guidelines governing advertising content, including religious restrictions on alcohol, pork, gender portrayal, modesty, and symbols.” And that gets American and European advertisers into problems and that is how they are shut out. There is another body managing this, but I forgot the details. What happens is that there is a place where the setting is islamic and I had the additional setting of what I call ‘Tomes of information’ and through that Saudi Arabia gets visibility through and from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Egypt and Indonesia. Setting the advertisement losses close to a billion viewers. That is what Saudi Arabia now gained. 

As as I see it, it is not about image, power or ‘game-washing’. It is a business decision that gets to unite the islamic world in more ways then one and alas, I seemingly am missing out, but I get to hold it over the heads of Amazon and Google for nearly all time. What a lovely feeling. 

Have a great day this Saturday (Vancouver is joining us in 30 minutes) and consider what running in a rat-race is not giving you. I merely looked in a different direction and saw billions. What can you see when you put your mind to it (and optionally clean your glasses)?

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See Tea or else

Yes, I promised you a story full of intrigue, filled with bad Jedi and happy Sith only 20 hours ago. And here it comes (I’m watching Star Wars episode 2 at the moment). You see, there is a setting where we can watch the unfolding of what some laughingly call ‘Artificial Intelligence’ (it would be if it was designed by the CIA, but the American Administration is now in shutdown). To get there there are three parts. 

In part 1 we look at the ‘disinformation’ and here we see the parts that do not match. You see, Dab Mashed potatoes with unions were discontinued in both Coles and Woolworths. The IGA still has it as I was able to verify in person (I had to travel to Summer Hill for that). So this is part 1.

Now we get to the slightly better stuff. You see, some might think that combining DML with Predictive Analytics (some think it is AI) is a solution. You merely set this in a massive database and voila (a theatrical of ‘here it is’) and that was that. This is merely my version of what I think it is happening. 

You merely set the model on all the articles you have and you take settings of ‘minimum order size’ ‘estimated margin per item’ and a few other things and there you have a matrix showing the items that just don’t make the cut for your ‘predicted margin of profit’ model and they are ‘discontinued’. And it goes on for nearly all retail models, and it might be a consideration that this is a speculated idea of why PM Albanese invited Lulu into the mix against Coles, Woolworths, IGA and Aldi. I have no data on this, but I reckon it might be a reason that it stops the DML/Predictive Analytics madness. You see, there is a setting that it is folly to get any customer 100% happy (it really is), so these giants are heading for a mere 90% and they throw out the least margin articles out of their consideration, but there is a flaw, thrown out 10 articles is a start, but that leaves one less at 90% and 9 less at 1%, as such you have a base of 81%, so now we are off to the races. And as there is no substitute for added pressures, Lulu gets invited to Australia (in case the others went the way of the dodo, I meant Coles and Woolworths). There is no supporting evidence, so this is (highly) speculative. But there is another setting. You see, this solution requires programming skills and that is where ‘Accenture plans to boot staff it can’t train to use AI, 12,000 already culled’ comes in. This solution will require hundreds, if not thousands of people being reskilled and places like Accenture cannot do that, unless they trim the staff they have in several places. And 12,000 were ‘culled’ because it hinders their bottom line. To support this I give the following thoughts ‘What time was taken to assess a person whether he/she could be re-skilled?’ Who had the knowledge to assess this and what time frame was developed here? If this goes through it will mean a lot of engineers will be required in a short term setting.

And I merely used the Deb potato mash as an example, but what happens when it this pattern is released on pharmacy or other items? So whilst we might think that Accenture is dabbling in greed, the plain setting is that this is the direction that commerce is driving itself into. 

And this setting is about to be set on unverified data. Consider that Gemini AI had it wrong on Coles and Woolworths (see image), so what else did they get wrong and when that data is unverified how will the Predictive Analytics work with any level of accuracy? Mere simple questions at the top of my mind. And that was the setting of that ‘so called’ AI. 

Now, the setting is that parts of this are speculation, but does this make it wrong? It might be unverified, but the setting of the 12,000 culled into joblessness is recorded all over the media, and it is for the reason of ‘reskilling’ but what makes it impossible to reskill a person? As I see it, it is merely time and that is as I see it, time Accenture seemingly doesn’t have. And the setting of DML and Predictive Analytics? I see that as a limit towards viable data and that is the setting that plenty are ignoring. Some will ‘embrace’ the customer telling them that their data is awesome, but that is the second folly in this. Most of them are merely at the tally stage and their systems tend to come from legacy data, implying it is filled with holes and holes of non-data.

So think of this what you want, but the larger setting is about limiting YOUR ability to choose because it affects THEIR profit margins. Come to think of it, when was the last time you saw Sarsaparilla on the shelves of your supermarket? I remember a few years back there was Black knight licorice, where did that go? So think of all the things you liked and it is no longer there, why is that? Some are unviable as they cater to hundred of thousands of customers and they need to ‘adjust’ their stock accordingly. But what was denied to you? And the setting of adding predictive analytics to their profit mix is only making that worse for you. So what about part 3? Well that is where you the consumer comes in, it is what defines you, not what ‘their’ unverified data says you are. 

So have a think about what you are about to lose and have a great day and enjoy your next coffee, if only to force you to their brand of Nescafe.

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Balance of the matter

That is the setting as I see it, the balance and in particularly the Sheets balance is under attack. As we saw in Social Media

We are given “With distressed exchanges, Wall Street has found a way to restructure balance sheets that avoids Chapter 11” does this mean that financial means are no longer to be trusted in America? We get that people want to avoid their business to be seen as bankrupt, but to rebalance their books and with the approval of Wall Street is taking it a little bit far. I am not completely surprised with this action as I have said on several occasions that America is bankrupt, but to see it in action, for financial institutions like Wall Street to sound the clarion call to make it so that they appear not to be in ‘distress’ is a first clear setting for other people to take their investments out of America as soon as possible. And I get it, it is merely my point of view. So, tell me how do you react to the setting that the Financial Times is giving you? I did not read the article as it is behind a paywall, but the gist of the story is clear. And it is not about the ‘subtle’ setting of tax avoidance versus tax evasion. It is about restructuring your balance sheet. Like the Dutch banks did in 2013, the SNS bank put all the buildings in their care under a ‘bad investment’ book and the Dutch bank SNS Reaal and its banking operations, which was nationalized by the Dutch government on February 1, 2013, to prevent its insolvency and support the financial sector. As it was said (from sources) This action led to shareholders and subordinated bondholders losing their entire investments, as the Dutch state stepped in to prevent a larger financial crisis. The bad investments, primarily in real estate, led to substantial write-downs and ultimately forced the government to intervene and restructure the company. That happened before and I never accepted that action, now we see this in America on a much larger scale and it would be my (non-expert advice) to get out of their as quick as your legs (and privet jets) can take you and invest it somewhere more worthy.

This now gets me to the second setting I saw in Social Media. As some might say, Microsoft is at it again.

With ‘Microsoft said to block IDF from cloud system over use in surveillance of Palestinians’ we are given that “unit 8200 ‘violated terms of service’ in storing of phone recordings; military officials say unit backed data up ahead of time, no info lost” it is a simple setting that the backups are set towards ‘other’ sources like MySQL (or something like that) and fir the record, what evidence is there? I am not saying it isn’t true, I am asking what evidence did Microsoft have? Were they looking into the accounts of their customers? I am asking because that would be the first reason that people would drive their business to Amazon/Google/IBM/Oracle/Snowflake at the first light of day. I personally think it is the Microsoft way to make political statements and as they can slap Israel around and looking good doing it, that is what they are likely to do. Not an innovative bone in that rotten carcass (at present). And the media display is on my side of the cookie. They give us “Microsoft recently terminated the Israeli military’s main signals intelligence unit’s access to some of its services, after it allegedly used the Azure cloud platform for expansive surveillance of Palestinians, according to a Thursday report. According to the UK’s The Guardian, Microsoft told Israeli officials last week that the IDF’s Unit 8200 had “violated the company’s terms of service by storing the vast trove of surveillance data” on Azure.” (Source: times of Israel) and how was this data ‘begotten’? I reckon that the IP engines are running 24:7 to get the next iteration that Microsoft doesn’t have (this is speculative). As such there is a massive run for all IP holding cloud users to run away from Microsoft and go somewhere else. I already listed the top 4 above (in alphabetical order) and that is before we consider MySQL and whatever else is in the field. I reckon that the IDF needs to reevaluate its connections to Microsoft. I remember the IDF to be massively aware of what its technical abilities were and to see “far-left activist outlet +972 Magazine said Microsoft’s Azure software was used by Unit 8200 to store countless recordings of mobile phone calls made by Palestinians living in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip” implies that either Microsoft has too many zero day issues or there is an informer in Microsoft. My personal view is that there is no Israeli stupid enough to give +972 Magazine a hand. So my view is a little biased, but the is where I am at this time. And that will impact America too. Perhaps Amy Hood and Satya Nadella need to have a meeting with Wall Street and the Financial Times to restructure their balance sheets too, as is, they might need that assistance before too long. 

And this is where the American economy is heading it seems. So whilst we are ‘given’ ‘US economy expanded at a surprising 3.8% pace in significant upgrade of second quarter growth’ I have to wonder, is that because of the new balance sheet settings?

And if you have not used the new balance sheet methodology, have a great weekend and enjoy your coffee, for the rest I say, are you sure you can afford the coffee today?

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